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Speaker 1: What two three brights.

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Speaker 2: Down the middle of the feelings.

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Speaker 1: He loves football down in the one yard line. How

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Speaker 1: about that?

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Speaker 2: That is the ultimate kabash and.

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Speaker 1: We are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome back to the Action

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Speaker 1: Network NFL podcast. It is the wild Card Weekend Friday Show.

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Speaker 1: I am Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 1: In Joining me to break down this weekend's action is

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybon, a senior editor and analyst at The Action

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Speaker 1: Network and a co host of All Take That Bets

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Speaker 1: on ESPN Plus. You can follow him in the Action

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Speaker 1: App the Action Network app at Chris Raybon. Chris. Happy

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Speaker 1: twenty and nineteen to you for my New year's resolutions,

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Speaker 1: I plan on taking unmerited victory laps. I guess more

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Speaker 1: than I took this year. What about you?

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Speaker 3: Well, a happy New Year for happy anniversary as well.

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Speaker 3: You know, I know it's the same day.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I don't have a resolution yet, man, I mean,

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Speaker 2: oh yeah, I have a resolution too, actually too.

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Speaker 3: One my visits to the Action Network headquarters in Midtown,

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Speaker 3: the over under for the year is actually set at

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Speaker 3: four and a half, So got to beat that over under.

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Speaker 2: I think that's a pretty low bar.

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Speaker 3: And also my number two is I think I might

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Speaker 3: have told you guys this or said this on the

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Speaker 3: pod books. You know, it's been such a crazy year

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Speaker 3: first year here that I actually got mad in the day.

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Speaker 3: It came out sometime in August and didn't even open

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Speaker 3: it take it out of plastic like November. So I

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Speaker 3: got shouts to my grandma. She got me NBA two

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Speaker 3: K nineteen for Christmas.

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Speaker 2: I haven't played it yet.

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Speaker 3: It is out of the plastic though, so got to

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Speaker 3: play more games. Got to get a couple more games in.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I would say I think the resolution should

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Speaker 1: be to hit the under on having to go into

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Speaker 1: the office. I think clearly you want to be on

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Speaker 1: the under. It might be hard though, because let's say

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Speaker 1: there's like one meeting or so, like a company wide

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Speaker 1: meeting or something like in New York, like that might

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Speaker 1: require you to go in one or two times, and

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Speaker 1: then like maybe you have to go in one time

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Speaker 1: for some recording thing, you know, Like I think you'll

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Speaker 1: probably hit the over.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean no, I'm not a big proponent of,

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Speaker 3: you know, going into an office when I can work remotely,

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Speaker 3: especially during the season, just because like in New York.

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Speaker 3: Even though we have the subway at our disposal, it's

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Speaker 3: still like, you know, the inefficiency of you know, getting ready,

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Speaker 3: going to do the commute and whatnot.

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Speaker 2: But the office is really fun, honestly.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, there's just a lot of cool

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Speaker 3: people there from black Jack and Evan and all the guys,

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Speaker 3: and of course you have Darren Rovel in there now

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Speaker 3: our new.

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Speaker 2: CEO, Patrick Keane.

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Speaker 3: You know when I saw when I met him for

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Speaker 3: the first time, he had a pair of retro air

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Speaker 3: Jordan threes on. So I kind of told him that

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Speaker 3: I might have to come to the office to have

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Speaker 3: a little sneaker battle with him. So, I mean, just

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Speaker 3: a lot of a lot of fun things going on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I would say the real over under

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Speaker 1: is number of times per week you shower. Like as

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Speaker 1: long as you're hitting whatever bar you're setting on that

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Speaker 1: you are hitting the over then I think you're succeeding

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Speaker 1: at live.

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Speaker 3: I'm not bad as showering, you know, I'll let the

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Speaker 3: beer grow out sometimes, you know, as I'm sure people

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Speaker 3: have seen if they see me on TV. But you know,

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Speaker 3: I'm pretty good with the shower and I'm keeping my

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Speaker 3: trying to keep my haircuts up too.

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Speaker 1: But right, okay, let's progress here. On the Wednesday show,

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Speaker 1: we had Peter Jenning, Sean Corner, and Ian Hartitz. We

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Speaker 1: looked at the four game slate through a DFS perspective.

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Speaker 1: For this episode, we're going to break down each game

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Speaker 1: this weekend and then also look at the Saturday and

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Speaker 1: Sunday two game slates. As you are listening to the show,

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Speaker 1: please rate and review the Action Network NFL podcast on iTunes. Subscribe, unsubscribe,

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Speaker 1: and resubscribe. For all of our written content, go to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network and Fantasy Labs. You can get our

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Speaker 1: weekly fantasy rankings at actionnetwork dot com slash fantasy. It

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Speaker 1: is the playoffs and we are still doing rankings. That

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Speaker 1: is how committed we are. Chris, I mean, I want

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Speaker 1: to address the elephant in the room, although you don't

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Speaker 1: even know it's an elephant. But last week on the

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Speaker 1: Flex Pod, so we didn't have the normal Friday breakdown pod.

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Speaker 1: We had the Flex Pod. You didn't do so well.

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Speaker 1: Gotta say you were three and eleven on the props.

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Speaker 1: Who I was eighty four? I mean not that that

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Speaker 1: really means anything, but just thought the apocalypse is nigh

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Speaker 1: and then the week before that, Week sixteen, that wasn't

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Speaker 1: so good to you either, not gonna lie. I got

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Speaker 1: lucky to be five hundred. You were zero five and one.

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Speaker 2: Ooh, so that's what three and fourteen or something like that.

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Speaker 2: Oh that's bad. That's bad.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, by far the worst week you've had so anyway,

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Speaker 1: not counting the props. Since week fourteen, you're seven eleven

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Speaker 1: and two and I'm eight eleven and one. Basically, people

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Speaker 1: should never listen to anything we have to say. With

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Speaker 1: that said, let's talk about the first game of the

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Speaker 1: wild Guard weekend. We have the sixth seeded Colts at

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Speaker 1: the third seeded Texans. The Texans favored by one a

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Speaker 1: forty eight point five over under. The spread is down

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Speaker 1: from three. Money has been backing the Colts, the total

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Speaker 1: is up from forty eight. This is a divisional rubber match.

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Speaker 1: Both games between these teams in weeks four and fourteen

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Speaker 1: were decided by three points. The game in week four

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Speaker 1: went into overtime, so we could expect another close game here.

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Speaker 1: After losing five of their first six games, the Colts

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Speaker 1: won nine of their last ten to sneak into the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: The Texans are two and two in their last four,

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Speaker 1: but they strung together at nine straight wins before that,

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Speaker 1: and they won the AFC South for the third time

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Speaker 1: in four years, which I actually feel surprising. I don't

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Speaker 1: think if this team as being a dominant team, but

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Speaker 1: they've won their division in three of the last four years,

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Speaker 1: which I think is pretty impressive. Chris, what are you

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Speaker 1: thinking with this game? Well, you know, I love texa game.

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Speaker 1: We're going to find about it. We're gonna I mean, yeah, yeah, yeah, easily.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know, well, first I want to say,

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Speaker 3: you know, I feel bad for the guy. I don't

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Speaker 3: know if you remember on Twitter. I think it was

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Speaker 3: the week we had that discussion on the pod about

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Speaker 3: who would win the AFC South and I think I

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Speaker 3: was going with the Texans, you were going with the Colts,

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Speaker 3: and somebody tweeted us after that debate and we was

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Speaker 3: just really upset that we didn't give the Titans They're

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Speaker 3: just due, and you know, I really felt bad because,

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Speaker 3: you know, sitting here, of course, the Texans end up

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Speaker 3: winning the division and then the Colts Titans are playing

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Speaker 3: on the last week, and you know, the Titans are

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Speaker 3: again the odd team out and a year after, you know,

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Speaker 3: two years in a row they make the playoffs with

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Speaker 3: Mike Malarkey and then yeah, fire them, and of course

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Speaker 3: they don't.

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Speaker 2: But as far as this.

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Speaker 1: Game, they missed that Mularkey magic.

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Speaker 3: Now he's gonna Now now the Falcons are thinking of

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Speaker 3: replacing Sarkasian with him. I mean, come on, like are

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Speaker 3: hitting me? But anyway, I love the Texans. Did take

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Speaker 3: out some bets on them to win the Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: at sixteen to one a few weeks ago, so still,

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Speaker 3: you know, obviously a fan of what they're doing, and

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Speaker 3: in this game, I do think it's a toss up

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Speaker 3: though I think you know, both of these teams won

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Speaker 3: by three on the road in there in their two

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Speaker 3: divisional meetings this year. But when I look at this game,

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Speaker 3: I see, you know, Andrew Luck's kind of like I

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Speaker 3: think everyone we're kind of looking at Andrew Luck is

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Speaker 3: like the guy who really puts the Colts on top here,

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Speaker 3: because you know, he had an amazing season of course

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Speaker 3: coming back off the absence. But when you look a

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Speaker 3: little closer, I mean, I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: reason to trust Deshaun Watson just as much or even

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Speaker 3: more so than Andrew Luck.

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Speaker 2: You know, first, first of all.

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Speaker 3: You know, I just think in the nutshell like Watson's

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Speaker 3: play has been a little bit more even across all situations,

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Speaker 3: Whereas when you look at lux numbers.

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Speaker 2: For example, this season, Luck.

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Speaker 3: Has at home twenty one touchdowns, five picks, seven point

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Speaker 3: eight yards per attempt. When he goes on the road

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Speaker 3: eighteen touchdowns but ten interceptions, so that's double and he's

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Speaker 3: down to six point six yards per attempt. Watson thirteen

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Speaker 3: touchdowns for at home eight point two yards per attempt

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Speaker 3: and on the road thirteen touchdowns, five picks, eight point

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Speaker 3: three yards per attempt, So you know, Watson kind of

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Speaker 3: stays the same with wherever. And then when you look

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Speaker 3: at you know, even though you know, Luck's really been

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Speaker 3: good at third downs and in the red zone number

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Speaker 3: one third down offense, number five red zone offense.

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Speaker 2: But when you look at.

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Speaker 3: Those those numbers, that means that also means that you know,

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Speaker 3: the performance on first and second down has not has

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Speaker 3: been somewhat of a struggle. So you know, you kind

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Speaker 3: of saw that come out in that six nothing defeat

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Speaker 3: to the to the Jaguars, where it's kind of like

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Speaker 3: there's a low I think a little bit of a

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Speaker 3: lower floor to this offense. And then you know, looking

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Speaker 3: at some other thing, like you know, Watson outplayed Luck

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Speaker 3: in that overtime period. You know, Watson has led more

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Speaker 3: fourth quarter comebacks, more game winner drives this season, five

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Speaker 3: of both second in the league.

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Speaker 2: Luck has three each. Under pressure.

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Speaker 3: Watson has been pressured at the highest rates in the

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Speaker 3: league among quarterbacks with two hundred and fifty or more dropbacks,

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Speaker 3: and yet he has the highest passer rating in the

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Speaker 3: league under pressure this season. Luck is middle of the

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Speaker 3: pack fifteenth in terms of passer rating under pressure. So

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Speaker 3: there's a few different situations where I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: there's a chance that you know that Watson is actually

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Speaker 3: the difference maker because I think it really the real

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Speaker 3: trouble with Houston's offense and why their numbers aren't completely

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Speaker 3: you know, off the charts is because the offensive line

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Speaker 3: and how many sets. You know, Watson took the league

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Speaker 3: leading number of sacks, I believe, with sixty four, and you.

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Speaker 2: Know that that's obviously going to be trouble.

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Speaker 3: But the Coats really haven't had much of much of

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Speaker 3: a pass rush for the most part. They are twenty

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Speaker 3: ninth in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate. So if that's

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Speaker 3: not a problem in this game, I think that you know,

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Speaker 3: Watson has a real chance and this passing offense has

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Speaker 3: a real chance to kind of outperform what the coach did.

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Speaker 3: You know, both of these pass defenses kind of shaky.

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Speaker 3: Both of these defenses are a lot better against the run.

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Speaker 3: But even even you know, like Watson without Will Fuller's

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Speaker 3: another kind of point. We talk about a lot, you know,

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Speaker 3: his yards per attempt without Fuller seven point nine and

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Speaker 3: luck seven.

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Speaker 2: Point two overall for the whole season.

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Speaker 3: So you know, if if Watson's not getting sacked to

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Speaker 3: kind of bring down that net yards per attempt, I

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Speaker 3: think that Houston can kind of can kind of stick

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Speaker 3: with Indianapol was in this game and put up put

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Speaker 3: up enough points to win it, given that they are

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Speaker 3: you know, in their own building and at home.

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Speaker 2: So see why Hilton Another one thing I worry about is,

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Speaker 2: you know.

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Speaker 3: I think t Hy Hilton is if you read the

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Speaker 3: Action Networks betting guy for this game, we're doing a

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Speaker 3: biggest mismatch on each side of the ball for the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: and t Y Hilton was my biggest mismatch on you know,

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Speaker 3: against Houston.

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Speaker 2: He's completely destroyed, I mean destroyed Houston.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's like, so he has five games in

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Speaker 3: his career regular season or postseason without three without with

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Speaker 3: the with one hundred and seventy five or more receiving yards.

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Speaker 3: Three of them have come against Houston, and not only

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Speaker 3: against Houston, but in Houston, So it's.

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Speaker 2: Kind of absurd.

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Speaker 3: But I mean, I don't know if you saw the

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Speaker 3: the game last week where Hilton caught a short screen

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Speaker 3: pass and it looked like for it, like I feel

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Speaker 3: like a healthy Hilton run, takes it to the house.

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Speaker 2: He caught it, it would have been a ninety yard touchdown.

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Speaker 3: He ends up, it looks like he just his ankle

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Speaker 3: just gives out about half the way there, so it

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Speaker 3: goes for forty three yard game.

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Speaker 2: He hasn't practiced for a better part of a month.

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Speaker 3: He is going to play, but he's obviously not one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent, and I think that does kind of hurt

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Speaker 3: the upside of this offense a little bit, though, though

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Speaker 3: I think Eric Ebron is still going to create massive

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Speaker 3: problems for this Houston defense. State they were one of

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Speaker 3: the worst teams against the tight end. But you know

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Speaker 3: the line here is down, which I think is somewhat

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Speaker 3: fair given to toss up nature of this game. But

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Speaker 3: now I've seen I've seen Houston as a pick them

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Speaker 3: in some spots. I grabbed that in the Action Network

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Speaker 3: cap you can see that. But you know, we're I

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Speaker 3: think we're officially going with what's the spread plus one

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Speaker 3: or I mean us by one or one and a

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Speaker 3: half right now.

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Speaker 1: Right now on our live odds page, we have one.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so yeah, at Houston favored by only a point,

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Speaker 3: given that they're at home, and I think they're still

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Speaker 3: the team.

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Speaker 2: I think these are two pretty evenly matched teams.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to roll with with the Texans here favored

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Speaker 3: by a point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. I grabbed the Colts at

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Speaker 1: two and a half. Wish I could have gotten at

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Speaker 1: at three, but I still feel fine at two and

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Speaker 1: a half. I see how this could be a toss

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Speaker 1: up either way. But the one thing I do feel

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Speaker 1: pretty confident in is the Colt's ability to score points.

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Speaker 1: It's just a question of whether the Texans would score

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Speaker 1: more points, you know what I mean. But I'm going

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Speaker 1: with the team total of the Colts over twenty four.

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Speaker 1: I think they have a pretty good chance at hitting it.

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Speaker 1: But if I had to pick a side, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna pick the Texans. I'm gonna pick the Colts,

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Speaker 1: And so like everything you said, like, I agree with it,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's why it's a really close game.

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Speaker 1: But even though the Colts don't have that grade of

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Speaker 1: a pass rush, they were still able to get seven

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Speaker 1: sacks against Watson in Week four five sacks against him

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Speaker 1: in Week fourteen. I think the bigger thing is not

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Speaker 1: so much that they can't generate the pass rush. It's

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Speaker 1: just that against any opponent that can generate even something

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Speaker 1: close to an average pass rush, the Texans are just

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Speaker 1: really bad, you know. So I think as long as

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Speaker 1: they can be close to average, they should be able

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Speaker 1: to get enough pressure on Watson to make a difference

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Speaker 1: and on the offensive side of the ball for the Colts.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you that there's not much of a

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Speaker 1: difference between luck and Watson, both of those guys this year.

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Speaker 1: I would say we're like top five fantasy quarterbacks. Like,

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Speaker 1: I think there's not much of a difference. There is

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Speaker 1: a difference between Hopkins and Hilton, especially given that Hilton

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Speaker 1: isn't fully healthy, but Hilton going against the Texans. I

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Speaker 1: think there's not much of a huge difference there, you

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Speaker 1: know what I mean. I don't want to be sacrilegious,

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Speaker 1: you know, like Hopkins is a top to top three

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Speaker 1: receiver in the league, but like Hilton, he's just he's

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Speaker 1: very good on his own, He's very good indoors, very

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Speaker 1: good against the Texans. You add all those things together

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Speaker 1: and I think he's like close enough where you can't

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Speaker 1: say the Texans have a huge edge at wide receiver

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Speaker 1: with Hopkins over Hilton. I think where the Colts really

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Speaker 1: have the distinguishing factor here is that their defense is

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Speaker 1: comparable enough to the Texans defense. Their offensive line is

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Speaker 1: much better. Has done a really good job of protect

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Speaker 1: protecting Luck. And I don't even know if that's so

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Speaker 1: much at the offensive line is that good. It's just

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Speaker 1: that they do a really good job of scheming plays

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Speaker 1: so that Luck doesn't take a lot of hits or

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Speaker 1: a lot of sacks. And then I think they are

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Speaker 1: significantly better with Ebron versus whatever tight end the Texans

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Speaker 1: are trotting out there and pretending is their number one

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Speaker 1: tight end on any given week. They're better at running back.

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Speaker 1: I think Mac is clearly better than Lamar Miller, and

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Speaker 1: I think Nahem Hines is a real difference maker as

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Speaker 1: a change of pace guy who can catch the ball

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Speaker 1: out of the backfield. Yeah, I think those those two

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Speaker 1: guys with the offense, like for me, that's the difference

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Speaker 1: between Indianapolis and He's the one.

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Speaker 3: Thing I'll say is that, I mean, the one part

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Speaker 3: I somewhat disagree with is just because the Texans like

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Speaker 3: offensive line is you know, isn't isn't good? Is that

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Speaker 3: that's going to have like a major effect? Like I

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Speaker 3: do agree, like Watson will take sacks, but him taking

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Speaker 3: sacks is kind of like like, for example, last year,

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Speaker 3: like Watson's biggest issue was at he turned the ball

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Speaker 3: over too much, he threw too many interceptions, even though

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Speaker 3: he threw so many touchdowns. This year, he's kind of

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Speaker 3: replaced those kind of bad decisions with taking sacks. And

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Speaker 3: as I mentioned, he's still the number one passer under

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Speaker 3: pressure in the league, you know, so like he has

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Speaker 3: made strides in that area to kind of make the

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Speaker 3: best of this situation. And I think you know that

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Speaker 3: combined with the fact that the Texans are at home obviously,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's easier to rush the passer when you're

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Speaker 3: at home and.

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Speaker 2: So, you know, on both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 3: I think that could come in a little bit in

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Speaker 3: some more, a little bit more into play. And I

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Speaker 3: think the one issue you know with Luck, and this

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Speaker 3: could be the difference in what you know, two games

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Speaker 3: have been decided by three points each, is that Luck's

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Speaker 3: main issues have been turnovers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, like.

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Speaker 2: Even against that in Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: I mean Tennessee was in that game because Luck, through

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Speaker 3: just a disgusting thing, was horrible deep in his own territory.

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Speaker 3: And if you look at Luck's career playoff performances, He's

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Speaker 3: had six playoff games, he only has a seventy point

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Speaker 3: five passer rating, and that's because he has nine touchdowns

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Speaker 3: to twelve interceptions.

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Speaker 1: Yes, two means he's never had Frank Reich before. That's

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Speaker 1: that's the big difference.

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Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, and I and I know, I think

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Speaker 3: Frank Wright gets a lot of credit because I think

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Speaker 3: that comes out in that situational success, you know, with

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Speaker 3: with the coach being such a good team on third down,

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Speaker 3: such a good team in the red zone. I think

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Speaker 3: that has a lot to do with Frank Right, but

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Speaker 3: I mean, oh, I mean these coaching staffs are both

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Speaker 3: pretty good. I mean Bill O'Brien nine plus wins in

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Speaker 3: four of his five seasons. You know, he worked under

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Speaker 3: Belichick as a quarterbacks and an offensive coordinator coach for

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Speaker 3: you know, for five seasons. I mean, I think that

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Speaker 3: both of these teams are are pretty well coached. You know,

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Speaker 3: third time meeting. I don't think there's going to be

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Speaker 3: necessarily like a huge advantage either way in terms of coaching,

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Speaker 3: just because it is the third meeting. You know, O'Brien

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Speaker 3: and his staff have more experience, more of a track record.

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Speaker 2: But you know, in Brke's you know they're they're sharp

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Speaker 2: as well, so you.

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Speaker 3: Know, again it could go either way. But Texans at home,

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Speaker 3: I'm I'm taking them by a point.

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Speaker 2: I do think that, you.

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Speaker 3: Know, the one thing you worry about, if if you're

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Speaker 3: worried about like the over under, is that both of

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Speaker 3: these run defenses have been very good this year, and

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Speaker 3: so if these teams end up trying to run the

379
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Speaker 3: ball and it doesn't work out, there could end up

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Speaker 3: being some third and lungs and some punts.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I wouldn't mean toward the over as well, the.

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Speaker 1: One thing I will say to your point about Watson,

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Speaker 1: He's thrown in the last ten games only two interceptions.

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Speaker 1: In the first six games he was a pretty interception

385
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Speaker 1: prone guy, throwing seven interceptions, but since then he really

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Speaker 1: has cleaned it up. He has been much better at

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Speaker 1: protecting the ball, especially relative to Luck. So yeah, that

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Speaker 1: is a key difference between them.

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Speaker 2: You know a lot of people know this about me.

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Speaker 3: I really do love Deshaun wats or what he's been

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Speaker 3: able to do through two years as a professional quarterback.

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Speaker 3: I think one thing I really admire this year about

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Speaker 3: you know, him and what the Texans have done is

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Speaker 3: that they've been able to adapt to being without Fuller,

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Speaker 3: because I feel like Fuller was such a difference maker

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Speaker 3: for them with the kind of separation you got and

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Speaker 3: just being a second guy to kind of you had

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Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins on one side to really take some of

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Speaker 3: the pressure off.

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Speaker 2: But they've kind of morphed into a more run heavy team.

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Speaker 2: They've more and you know.

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Speaker 3: Still been able to have success, you know, keep Watson's

403
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Speaker 3: numbers up and keep their efficiency up even without Fuller

404
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Speaker 3: and really nobody else because I mean, Q hasn't been

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Speaker 3: in the lineup for most of most of the time

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Speaker 3: without Watson looks like he is going to play, which

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Speaker 3: which could be another boon to the to the Texans

408
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Speaker 3: offense and another reason that they might be able to

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Speaker 3: to kind of play better situational because they're gonna need

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Speaker 3: to do that to keep up with the coach. They're

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Speaker 3: gonna need to play better on third down, and they're

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Speaker 3: gonna need to play better in the red zone.

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Speaker 2: And having just another guy in addition.

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Speaker 3: To like the just like the dark hole of tight

415
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Speaker 3: end even though I mean the tight ends are solid,

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Speaker 3: but I mean, no, no one stands out of course

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Speaker 3: for the Texans with Griffin, And it looks like Jordan

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Speaker 3: Akins has actually overtaken Jordan Thomas in terms of playing time.

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Speaker 3: You know, Aikins has been the one up there around

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Speaker 3: forty percent of the snatch, running more routes than Thomas

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Speaker 3: over the past couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, that's a that's enough for that game. We've

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Speaker 1: we've talked about it. Let's talked about the Saturday night game.

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Speaker 1: Oh man, the number five Seahawks at the number four Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: Cowboys favored by one and a half a forty three

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Speaker 1: point over under. The spread is down from two and

427
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Speaker 1: a half as the Sharps have backed the Seahawks, the

428
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Speaker 1: total is up from forty one and a half. The

429
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Speaker 1: Seahawks beat the Cowboys twenty four to thirteen in Seattle

430
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Speaker 1: in Week three as one and a half point favorites.

431
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Speaker 1: Of course, that was before the Cowboys traded for wide

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Speaker 1: receiver Mariy Cooper. The Seahawks started the year four and five,

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Speaker 1: but have won six of their last seven games, the

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Speaker 1: low loss coming in overtime on the road to the

435
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Speaker 1: divisional rival forty nine Ers. Chris, you remember that game.

436
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Speaker 1: Of course. The Cowboys started the season three and four,

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Speaker 1: but after acquiring Cooper, they went seven to two to

438
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,640
Speaker 1: claim the NFC East for the second time in three years. Chris,

439
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:37,160
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on this game?

440
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I think the fact that it's in Dallas,

441
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 3: you know, and not in Seattle makes it much more

442
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 3: of an even we match game. I think, you know,

443
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 3: I'd be a lot more confident in the Seahawks if

444
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,360
Speaker 3: they were at home. I still do like the Seahawks here,

445
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 3: so am taking them at plus one and a half,

446
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 3: even with Amari Cooper there for the Dallas Cowboys, We've

447
00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:02,119
Speaker 3: still seen them have a you know, low floor at times,

448
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 3: you know, like we saw them get shut out by

449
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:07,400
Speaker 3: the the Indianapolis coach. You know, we've seen Cooper he's

450
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 3: kind of you know, the sample size with Cooper is

451
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 3: still small, but you know, over a larger sample size,

452
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 3: Cooper has just been very inconsistent, you know, and we've

453
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 3: kind of seen that start to come out a little bit,

454
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 3: even with the Cowboys where you know, he did have

455
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 3: that stretch. You know, he had I think a down

456
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 3: first game, but had some had had a pretty good

457
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 3: stretch of games where he was catching a ton of passes,

458
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 3: and then he had some down games as well.

459
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 2: We've seen Seattle their defense has been shaky.

460
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 3: All year long, which is why I've been willing to

461
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 3: to kind of bet against them in certain spots, as

462
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 3: you mentioned, like with the forty nine ers. But you know,

463
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 3: I do remember in that Monday night game against the

464
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings when it really looked like Stefan Diggs and

465
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 3: Adam deelnd could be could be difference makers in that game.

466
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 3: And what Seattle did was they they essentially double team

467
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,920
Speaker 3: both of them, and you know, on all like obvious

468
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 3: passing situations, and I think you're gonna see Seattle really

469
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 3: sell out to take away Cooper on any type of

470
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,880
Speaker 3: similar sitch situation. Now, I think Dallas will be able

471
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 3: to run on Seattle, but we know that at the

472
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 3: end of the day, passing is generally going to have

473
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,880
Speaker 3: a much bigger impact on this game. And I think

474
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 3: on the other side of the ball, I mean, what

475
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,439
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson has done this year has just been absurd.

476
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 3: I mean the more I look at the numbers, he

477
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 3: had four hundred and twenty seven pass attempts this year

478
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:20,400
Speaker 3: and through thirty five touchdowns.

479
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 2: That's a career high for him.

480
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 3: You know, four hundred and twenty seven pass attempts, you know,

481
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 3: career high touchdowns, tied for a career low with seven interceptions.

482
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 3: You know, his adjusted yards per ten nine point zero

483
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 3: pass A rating one ten.

484
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: I mean, it was just an amazing season four.

485
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 3: But you know that combined with the postseason experience that

486
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 3: he has, you know, twelve postseason games, eight and four record.

487
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:45,200
Speaker 3: You know, this is only Dak's second game, although he

488
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 3: played very well in his loan postseason appearance against the

489
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 3: Green Bay Packers a couple of years ago, throwing for

490
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 3: three hundred yards and three scores. I just think that

491
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 3: Wilson combined with you know, Seattle kind of on defense,

492
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,479
Speaker 3: you know, not having a great defense, but having defense

493
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 3: that you know, can kind of employ some tactics to

494
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,640
Speaker 3: take away some things for Dallas in the past game.

495
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 2: See Seattle also plays very, very strong against the tight

496
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 2: end position.

497
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 3: So that's good news because I think Blake Jarwin, I

498
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: think he's another guy for Dallas that was starting to

499
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: emerge down the stretch. And of course we saw him

500
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 3: put up the monster game against the New York Giants

501
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:20,719
Speaker 3: in the final game of the season, with over one

502
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 3: hundred yards and and three touchdowns in that game. But

503
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 3: I think if Seattle kind of forces Dallas to look

504
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 3: other ways besides Cooper, I think it's not going to

505
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 3: be quite as easy for the Cowboys. So I'm just

506
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 3: gonna roll with I'm rolling with Seattle off the strength

507
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 3: of Wilson and and the postseason experience, and you know

508
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 3: that they've been here before. But then again, another one

509
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 3: of these games, it's just it's really as toss up.

510
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I'm on Seattle at two and

511
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: a half. I mean, so I'm a Cowboys fan, right,

512
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's embarrassing enough to say on its own.

513
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 1: I feel like it's just like I'm in recovery for it, Like, yeah,

514
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 1: I'm my Cowboys fan. Uh Cowboys. They're seven and two

515
00:22:57,800 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 1: with the Marii Cooper, but over that time they've been

516
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 1: outscored two hundred and one to one ninety nine. Like

517
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: they invite game that are really close, you know. So

518
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 1: it's a situation where like they seem like a team

519
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 1: that is primed for some very rude postseason regression, you

520
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 1: know what I mean, Like teams that get outscored but

521
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 1: have winning records like that they don't sustain. And I

522
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 1: am I'm very much with you and the admiration for

523
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson and how efficient he's been this year. And

524
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 1: I don't think that the Cowboys are going to be

525
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: in a good spot to stop his connection with Doug

526
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 1: Baldwin or Tyler Lockett because they pretty much play sides,

527
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: so Byron Jones is going to be on one side

528
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: of the field, and I think they're just going to

529
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: sacrifice David Moore or Jaron Brown or whoever it is

530
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 1: that they want to put out there, and then Baldwin

531
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 1: is going to be in the slot, Tyler Lockett is

532
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 1: going to be on the other side of the field,

533
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: And I think those two guys can win their matchups

534
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: enough whenever they want to target them. I think they

535
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: are going to be able to run the ball effectively

536
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 1: enough to give Russell Wilson manageable enough third down opportunities.

537
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, and then everything he mentioned his postseason experience,

538
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 1: and then I mean Pete Carroll, Like, I don't think

539
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: he's particularly great, but he's better than Jason Garrett. And

540
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 1: so if I can have the side that has the

541
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 1: better head coach and the better quarterback with like not

542
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 1: much else separating the two teams, I'm going to take

543
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: that side, especially in the postseason.

544
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think to your point about Pete Carroll, I mean,

545
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:38,919
Speaker 3: I think he's a very good coach at like bigger

546
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 3: pitcher things, like he was one of the foremost kind

547
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 3: of you know, guys who paid attention to like the

548
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 3: sports science, the mental health first players, you know, always

549
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 3: been able to kind of he's really good with those guys,

550
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 3: but like, you know, not as high draft pedigree, you know,

551
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 3: chip on their shoulder type guys, but he's kind of

552
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 3: struggled with certain he needs good guys under him, and

553
00:24:58,600 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 3: he's not.

554
00:24:58,920 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: Always had that.

555
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 3: Like you know, Darryl Bevil has kind of made some

556
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 3: bad decisions that have cost him and and I think

557
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 3: that you know, he did really well this offseason to kind.

558
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 2: Of overhaul you know, he was losing the locker room too.

559
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,199
Speaker 3: He had a lot of volatile, a lot of strong

560
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: personality players, and I think they he did really good

561
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 3: to kind of reel that back in while overhauling the

562
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 3: coaching staff. I think Mike Salari, the old line coach,

563
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 3: you know, replacing Tom Cable, He's been able to get

564
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 3: a lot out of that offensive line and because you know,

565
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,200
Speaker 3: it speaks to how successful they've been in the running game.

566
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 3: He also took a couple of coordinators with perceived bad

567
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 3: track records, you know, Brian Schottenheimer of course, and then

568
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 3: Ken Norton, you know, bad track records, but in bad situations.

569
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 3: It kind of took them and he's gotten the most

570
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: out of them and kind of made him look really

571
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 3: really smart for what he did with those guys as well.

572
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 3: So I think Carol is a you know, is a

573
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 3: pretty solid coach at certain in certain ways, He's just

574
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 3: more of a guy that like he's a head coach,

575
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 3: he's overseen the whole program, and he needs guys under

576
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 3: him that are going to get it done.

577
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 2: I think the Dallas coaching staff has made strides as well.

578
00:25:58,040 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 3: I don't think they're quite as you know, like at

579
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 3: one point they were straight up laughing stock.

580
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 2: I think the boss as they used to be.

581
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And I think it's but it is funny that,

582
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 3: you know, Chris Orchard, I think were key higher for

583
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 3: Dallas in the off season, actually spent you know, his

584
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 3: last eight years before that under Carol, So you know,

585
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, it's it's it is an advantage for

586
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 3: for the Seahawks. And going back to the receivers, yeah,

587
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 3: I think I think, you know, Dallas really that's where

588
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 3: they're going to struggle at the you know, their outside

589
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 3: corners are really good, and you know, they're not quite

590
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 3: as good on the inside, and Baldwin Lockett plays the

591
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 3: slot a lot, and I mean it's the postseason, so

592
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 3: I wouldn't even you know, David Moore he ran eighty

593
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 3: five percent of the routes in the last game, seventy

594
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 3: eight percent the game before. I mean, you know postseason

595
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson, it's like he throws up one of those

596
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 3: contested catches two more in the end zone, and you know,

597
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 3: who knows what will happen, because you know he will probably,

598
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 3: like you said, single cover because of course Dallas has

599
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 3: those guys.

600
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, I do like Seattle, and I'm right with you.

601
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: And so one more thing. You know, the Cowboys are

602
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: a very run focused team. This week. One thing that's

603
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: gone underreported is that Xavier sue Filo, they're left guard.

604
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: He was injured in their meaningless Week seventeen game. He's

605
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,919
Speaker 1: yet to practice this week. I think he's you know,

606
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 1: he's questionable at best, but you know, he hasn't even

607
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: gone through walkthroughs this week, so I think he's trending

608
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 1: toward doubtful, which means the team will have to start

609
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: Connor Williams at left guard. They benched him in week

610
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: eleven for Suefila because Williams has struggled so much in

611
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 1: his rookie year. So if they already are missing, they're

612
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 1: all pro center and starting to back up there, and

613
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: then now they're starting to back up at left guard.

614
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: That's that's a pretty significant weakness. On the interior of

615
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: their offensive line. It's not as if, like uh, Puna Ford,

616
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: who is an undrafted rookie, It's not as if like

617
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: he's out there playing many snaps, but at this point,

618
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 1: like he's playing like twenty five to thirtieth snaps per

619
00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 1: game and he's doing really good work as a run

620
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: stuffing defender, you know. So like if he's going against

621
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: two guys in the middle of the offensive line who

622
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: were backups, who have poor PFF grades, who probably shouldn't

623
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 1: be out there, Like if they can be efficient enough

624
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 1: at stopping the Cowboys when the Cowboys are like wanting

625
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: to run the ball, that is a huge wrench in

626
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 1: the Cowboys plans. So like, I think that's a really

627
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: kind of like underreported thing, but like that could be

628
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 1: like the matchup of the game.

629
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 3: No, that's a great that's a great point, you know,

630
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 3: I think, And you know, again, it just speaks to

631
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: the fact that you know, Seattle's been getting the most

632
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 3: out of that of these guys on defense. And I

633
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 3: mean it's funny because you say, you know, meeting this

634
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 3: week seventeen game, but when you look at the snap rates,

635
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 3: I mean, Amari Cooper played eighty five percent. Dak Prescott

636
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 3: was in there at the whole game. I mean, it

637
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 3: seems like the only player they consider important on his

638
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 3: team as Ezekiel Ellie, So who.

639
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: Is literally the least important person on the team. I

640
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: mean not literally not he's not literally like.

641
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 3: I'm saying, no, no, you know what I'm saying, No, no, oh.

642
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 2: I mean I know the run game. I get it,

643
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 2: Like the past game is like four or five times statistically,

644
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: you know, more correlated to the run game. But I mean,

645
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 2: I think is one of them. He's very important. He

646
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 2: probably like twenty percent of their passes to him, so

647
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 2: it's like he's important, he's very, very important. He's their

648
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 2: best player. I mean, but I get what you're saying,

649
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: like like the running back is like you're gonna rest

650
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: the running back, you rest the quarterback, and you rest right,

651
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: you know, your top receiver. So yeah, I totally get it.

652
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 3: And I mean that's why, I mean, I know you're

653
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 3: to go to your point of being a tortured Cowboys fan.

654
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 3: I saw this nugget from John Ewing that under Garrett

655
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 3: the Cowboys they're they're thirty five, twenty three and one

656
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 3: sixty percent against the spread as an underdog, but as

657
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 3: a favorite only thirty two forty five and three.

658
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 2: That's a forty two percent cover rate and to spread.

659
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 3: And it's a home favorite seventeen thirty two and one,

660
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 3: which is a thirty five percent cover rate against the spread.

661
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I'm aware. I'm aware. I have a spreadsheet

662
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 1: that I have just sort of like these various trends,

663
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 1: and that is one one of them. Garrett as a

664
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 1: home favorite, that's basically like an auto bet against the Cowboys,

665
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So yeah, I'm I'm painfully aware. Okay,

666
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: we are going to get to our next segment. Right

667
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 1: after Josh Applebaum tells us which game the wise guys

668
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 1: are betting this week.

669
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 4: Money Talks and action, apple Bomb is all ears. This

670
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 4: is the Sharp Report.

671
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 5: NFL Playoffs AFC Wild Card weekend. We are traveling to

672
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 5: Baltimore for a showdown between the LA Chargers and Baltimore Ravens.

673
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 5: The public sees LA Chargers twelve and four regular season

674
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 5: record against the ten and six Ravens, and they say,

675
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 5: give me the points. This game opened at Baltimore as

676
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 5: a minus three three point home favorite. Currently seventy percent

677
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 5: of bets are grabbing the points with the Chargers. Wise

678
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 5: guys are going the other way. They knew the public

679
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 5: would hammer the Chargers getting the points. They waited for

680
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 5: this line to fall from three down to two or

681
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 5: one at some books, and that's when they hammered Baltimore.

682
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: Using our Sports.

683
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 5: Insights bet Signals, we checked two different reverse line moves

684
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 5: on Baltimore at minus one. This overload of Sharp action

685
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 5: caused Baltimore to go back up to minus two and

686
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 5: a half or minus three across the market. So even

687
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 5: though the public will be grabbing the points of the Chargers,

688
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 5: sharps are buying low on Baltimore. As long as you

689
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 5: can get off the key number and get Baltimore at

690
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 5: minus two and a half or less or even a

691
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 5: possible money line play.

692
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: Go Ravens. Okay, that was Josh. Be sure to check

693
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 1: out his article The Sharp Report on the Action Network

694
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 1: Chris the Saturday Slate, the two games we just broke down.

695
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 1: Let's look at that from a DFS perspective. Let's start

696
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: at the quarterbacks, the main guys. Really, I think it's

697
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: going to come down to Deshaun Watson versus Andrew Luck

698
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 1: and we talked about those guys. I believe that in

699
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: the Action Network rankings, they are the two guys we

700
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 1: have ranked the highest. What are your thoughts.

701
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 2: You know, I'm actually playing with using a cheaper quarterback

702
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 2: on this on the two games slate, because I mean,

703
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 2: there's a lot of there's guys that you really want

704
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 2: to get, Like you want to get DeAndre Hopkins. And

705
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 2: as much as Jarwin had, you know, kind of had

706
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 2: his breakout at tight end and you know that kind

707
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: of was happening for the last couple of weeks here,

708
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 2: you still have to get Ebron here in it because

709
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 2: he could you know, he could score two three touchdowns,

710
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 2: so you want him. You maybe even want.

711
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 3: To try to get Hilton in there, although it's it's

712
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 3: like because his ankle is a little gimpy, you know,

713
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: the risk of like an in game aggravation or something

714
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 3: like that. As much as I love him against Houston,

715
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,479
Speaker 3: maybe you just kind of go with Hopkins as your

716
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 3: one loan receiver. But there's a lot of guys at

717
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 3: other positions that you kind of feel good about, and

718
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 3: then there's like not many other options that you feel

719
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 3: good about at all. Like at wide receiver, it's like Hopkins, Hilton,

720
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 3: you have and then you have like you know, you

721
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 3: have the Seattle guys. But then it's like there's like

722
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 3: a really big drop off after that. So I'm actually

723
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 3: considering I don't mind going with Russell Wilson at court,

724
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 3: especially since it is the posts postseason Russ and you know,

725
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 3: thirty five touchdowns. We know, you know, as much as

726
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 3: the low volume passing game has been you know, a

727
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 3: key component of Seattle's offense.

728
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 2: I mean again, career high thirty five touchdown.

729
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,719
Speaker 3: Passes, So you can't really be too scared of Wilson

730
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 3: going against this defense. And the Cowboys are a more

731
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 3: of a kind of pass funnel, at least from an

732
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 3: efficiency standpoint, because they ranked number five in run defense DVOA,

733
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 3: but number sixteen against the pass. So I'm strongly considering

734
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 3: actually using Wilson in that in that quarterback spot over

735
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 3: Watson or what because Watson is ten one thousand dollars

736
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 3: more than Wilson on DraftKings, and and then Luck is

737
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 3: seven hundred more.

738
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: And if you look at.

739
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 3: The the Labs models, like, yeah, Wilson actually does have

740
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 3: the lowest projected plus minus, but you know, I think

741
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 3: that you know, just from from the standpoint of you know,

742
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: his past performance and whatnot, Like I feel comfortable going

743
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 3: with him at a position that's it's going to generally

744
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: be kind of close. I think this week like there

745
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 3: aren't there's not like a huge difference I think between

746
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 3: these four guys because Watson and Luck like they're you know,

747
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 3: they could there are there is downside with these guys

748
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: like Watson. You know, he could end up taking a

749
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 3: lot of sacks. It could get to kind of more

750
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 3: of a lower scoring game. What is you know, very

751
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,479
Speaker 3: turnover prone, so that could you know, that could get

752
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 3: ugly as well. And Mac has been a lot more

753
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 3: involved in recent weeks too, So I'm finally, Wills, what

754
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 3: do you think about that?

755
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind that, especially because I think that people.

756
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's a two game slate, so I

757
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,479
Speaker 1: think you really have to pick your your spots. We're

758
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 1: gonna be like this is where I'm planning my flag.

759
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 1: And I think a lot of people because it's a

760
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 1: two game slate, and because we have this game Coult

761
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:29,360
Speaker 1: at Houston, which has a much higher game total, I

762
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 1: think a lot of people are going to be drawn

763
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: to that into one of those two quarterbacks. So I

764
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 1: think Wilson will be the guy out of those three

765
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: who will have the lowest ownership. But his his ceiling,

766
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 1: I mean, because of volume, people won't think that his

767
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,320
Speaker 1: ceiling is as high, but like, I think his ceiling

768
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 1: really is just as high because he does have like

769
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: he has three touchdown upside, like he clearly has that,

770
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: and he has the ability to run for a lot

771
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: of yards too, So there's a lot to like.

772
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 3: And when when you know one final point on that,

773
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 3: and you know, this goes back to just you know,

774
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 3: kind of quarterbacks in general. So like one thing I

775
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 3: love to do when I'm when I'm making lineups and

776
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 3: when I'm trying to figure out what's the best roster

777
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 3: construction way to go is I'm sure people that read

778
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:16,360
Speaker 3: the breakdowns on Fantasy Labs every week premium kind of

779
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,800
Speaker 3: know about is that go to our models, sort by

780
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 3: the flex right, and you sort by salary in the

781
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 3: flex right. And so if you look at the players

782
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,399
Speaker 3: in the in Wilson's price range, you have Marlon Mack

783
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 3: at six K on draftings he's projected we haven't projected

784
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 3: for just under thirteen draftings points.

785
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: Then you have.

786
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 3: The next player after that is Tyler Lockett. He's at

787
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 3: fifty three hundred and he's projected for just under twelve

788
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,800
Speaker 3: draftings points. Russell Wilson in the middle, they're at fifty

789
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:51,280
Speaker 3: seven hundred. At quarterback, he's projected for over seventeen DraftKings points.

790
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 3: So when you look at it from a roster construction standpoint,

791
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 3: quarterback is clearly the position that if you pay down,

792
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 3: you're still getting the most points out of that particular

793
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 3: salary ring. So like usually when there's not, like you know,

794
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 3: a ton of value to be had at the other positions,

795
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,399
Speaker 3: it is going to make sense to pay down at

796
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 3: a position light quarterback, where you're still getting way more

797
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 3: points than if you pay down at a different position

798
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 3: or use the player in that salary run at a

799
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 3: different position.

800
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: Right. Yeah, let's talking about running backs because I think

801
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: for this this particular slate, the big question that people

802
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 1: are going to have, and maybe it's not even APPI

803
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 1: of a question, is like do you go with Ezekiel

804
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 1: Elliott and commit that much salary to the running back

805
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 1: position or not? Yes? You know, yes, yes, yeah, yeah,

806
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 1: I think I think you lock Yeah.

807
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 3: It's been like I think there was like this there's

808
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 3: this jam them in heyday. I think in the UH,

809
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 3: I want to say circa twenty sixteen, when you had

810
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: like La'dyon Bell and David Johnson area like every week

811
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 3: they would cost like ten thousand dollars and but you

812
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 3: know they would obviously be the highest projective players on

813
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 3: the slate. You know, now with you still had Girl

814
00:36:57,760 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 3: this year, but like in general, this year it's been

815
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 3: a little better. And you know on the slate obviously

816
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 3: the highest salary player on draftings is Elliott at nine K.

817
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 3: Then you have Hopkins at at eighty seven hundred. Like

818
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 3: I've actually become I think back in the day it

819
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 3: was you know, it wasn't as smart to always jam

820
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 3: those guys in at those salaries, But like I've become

821
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 3: a bigger proponent of the jam iman strategy because it's

822
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 3: just when you start to look back and you know,

823
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 3: you can use our trends to our NFL trends too

824
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 3: at Fantasy Labs and kind of look at the performance

825
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 3: of some of these high salary guys and you just

826
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 3: find that like when you have like the top you know, two, three,

827
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 3: four five players on the slate and you know, guys

828
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 3: projected for over twenty points in terms of median and

829
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 3: the highest ceiling players on the slate, and you just

830
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 3: look at their performance, there's so much more likely to

831
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 3: not only hit value but all, but but actually put

832
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 3: up a monster game than anyone in that kind of

833
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 3: next tier. So like on this slate, like, yeah, I'm

834
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 3: sure you could make a lineup if maybe a little

835
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 3: more you know balanced, you know, if you if you

836
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 3: use like you know, Carson and Lamar Miller in a

837
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: value running back in the flex, or you know, you

838
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 3: go with the more balance receiving corps with like Baldwin

839
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 3: and some other guys. I think that, you know, Elliott

840
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 3: and Hopkins are still going to be locks for me,

841
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 3: just because there's a huge gap, Like if you look

842
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 3: at it, I won't even quote I want to tell

843
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 3: you the exact projected points because you guys got to

844
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 3: subscribe to Fancy Labs for that. You know, Sean Corner

845
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 3: of course doing an excellent job with the projections there.

846
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 3: But I'll just say that there's nearly a five point

847
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 3: gap between Elliott Hopkins and then the next highest projected

848
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 3: you know, flex eligible player, and you know that just

849
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 3: really I think it's really important to kind of lock

850
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 3: those guys in and then you kind.

851
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 2: Of take your your punt. More so at a position.

852
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 3: Like quarterback, where even though you're not getting the top

853
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 3: guy at that position, again, you're getting the top guy

854
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 3: in that salary range even when you are punting.

855
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:45,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, and to your point about the difference between Zeke

856
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 1: and Hopkins and the guys underneath them, that difference is

857
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 1: even magnified when you look at their ceiling projections. So

858
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: like you, you definitely you want to lock in Zeke.

859
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 1: So I think looking at wide receiver, one of the

860
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,399
Speaker 1: questions is, if you're up for Zeke and you're paying

861
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 1: up for Hawkins, and if you are likely we can

862
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 1: talk about tidend later, but likely to pay up for Ebron,

863
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 1: what are you doing at wide receiver to save some money.

864
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 3: So, and this is assuming that he plays, But I

865
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 3: think I'm going to end up rolling with Kiki qt

866
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 3: in one of the spots because he's a guy who, yes,

867
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,919
Speaker 3: he's been out for a long while, but I think

868
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,760
Speaker 3: because of as you mentioned, the Texans not really having

869
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 3: a lot at wide receiver, I think they are going

870
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 3: to actually be willing to insert him right back into

871
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 3: his role as essentially the main slot receiver, and I

872
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 3: think they could perhaps even.

873
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 2: Give him snaps as the number two receiver on early downs.

874
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 2: And we've just seen qt.

875
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 3: I mean, his first game as a pro, he caught

876
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 3: eleven of fifteen for one hundred and nine against these

877
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 3: same Colts. In his second game, he caught six or

878
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 3: seven for fifty one in a touchdown. Then you know

879
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 3: he i also had a five catch game on nine

880
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 3: targets a little later on, so injuries were kind of

881
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,919
Speaker 3: bugging him in between there for the most part.

882
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 2: But he's shown kind of the ability to have to

883
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 2: have a high volume role in a game where we

884
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 2: do expect some points to be scored on a team

885
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 2: where there aren't really many options outside of Hopkins, and

886
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: I think the Coats and Matt eber Fliss did actually

887
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 2: do a really good job of containing Hopkins in the

888
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 2: last meeting.

889
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,280
Speaker 3: You know, four catches on ten targets for thirty six yards,

890
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 3: did catch a touchdown to pull him within three in

891
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter with two thirty seven remaining. So you know,

892
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:30,800
Speaker 3: I don't think you're fading Hopkins by any means because

893
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 3: of that, I think you know, his floor even when

894
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 3: he's contained is still very high. But you know, the

895
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 3: Coats broke up three passes in that game, just had

896
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 3: I think, a much improved game plan, So I think

897
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 3: there will be a need for a second guy to

898
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 3: stand up, step up, and I'm not sure, you know,

899
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 3: DeAndre Carter is another guy that you know, you have

900
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 3: Carter and you have Vincent Smith. Carter's kind of more

901
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 3: of the slot guy, So I worry a little bit

902
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,959
Speaker 3: about because if Kk's coming back, I worry that Carter

903
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 3: may be the odd man out rather than him moving outside.

904
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think I'm I think I'm fine with

905
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 3: playing QT at one of those spots, then at another

906
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 3: one of the spots. It's probably going to be if

907
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 3: I pay up for guys probably going to be one

908
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 3: of the Colts receivers. I'm you know, dontro Inman ran

909
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 3: eighty five percent of the of the pass routes in

910
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 3: the last game, so I think, you know, he's he's

911
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 3: probably an option, But it's really just going to come

912
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 3: down to Russ's construction and how much you can kind

913
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 3: of maximize at that last position. But I think that

914
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 3: that's the way I would go if I'm paying up

915
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 3: for for Zeke and hopping.

916
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's look quickly at tight end. I mean

917
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 1: it's it's Ebron or jar Win or like, what are

918
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:35,759
Speaker 1: you doing here?

919
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I got Ebron's another guy that or

920
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: another reason why I think I'm gonna end up paying

921
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 3: down at two hyde receiver spots because I really want

922
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 3: to get I want.

923
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 2: To get Ibron in there.

924
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, he's just you know, he's he's

925
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 3: let go to guy in the red zone and he's

926
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 3: a guy where I know t Y Hilton is going

927
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 3: to be very popular, but you know, Hilton's more of

928
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 3: the yardage guy.

929
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 2: You know, he's the guy.

930
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 3: He's the guy that he's a better He's a great

931
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 3: bet for yardage, not quite as good of a for touchdowns.

932
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 3: And so that's a way to kind of especially if

933
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 3: you're fading Hilton and going with Hopkins as your loan

934
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,359
Speaker 3: stud wide receiver, is kind of a way to get

935
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 3: some leverage there.

936
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 2: And if you're also fading Luck as well, which I.

937
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 3: Probably will do in cash games, I think getting Ebron

938
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 3: in there is going to be key because you know,

939
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 3: Houston the number twenty three team in terms of DVOA

940
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 3: against the tight end position and you know FOOTBA Outsiders

941
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 3: also does the schedule adjusted targets and yards per games

942
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 3: to these positions, and seventy one point seven yards per

943
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 3: game schedule adjusted allowed to tight ends by Houston is

944
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 3: the second most in the league. So really like Ebron

945
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 3: in this spot, especially with a bang of Hilton.

946
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 1: Okay, we were going to talk about the Sunday games

947
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 1: right after we check in with John Ewing for some

948
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 1: trend based sports betting insight.

949
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 4: Good data is always in fashion. Here's John Ewing with

950
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:56,439
Speaker 4: trend of the week.

951
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:00,959
Speaker 6: The Chicago Bears are a surprise and NFL playoff team.

952
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 6: A season after winning five games, Matt Naggi squad went

953
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 6: twelve to four and won the NFC North. Expectations are

954
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 6: high for the Bears, as the oddsmakers opened them as

955
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 6: seven point favorites over the Eagles on Sunday, but history

956
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 6: suggests the team could struggle after dramatic year to year improvement.

957
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 6: Since nineteen ninety twenty five, other franchises have enjoyed a

958
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 6: win total improvement of seven or more games from one

959
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 6: season to the next, like the Bears. In the playoffs,

960
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,840
Speaker 6: those teams went eleven and twenty four against the spread

961
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 6: a thirty one percent win rate. A majority of spread

962
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 6: tickets are on the Bears, but the line has moved

963
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 6: from Chicago minus seven to minus six. When the line

964
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 6: moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, this

965
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 6: is called reverse line movement and is an indication of

966
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 6: smart money on the Eagles.

967
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:44,400
Speaker 1: Okay, that was John. Be sure to check out his

968
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 1: sports betting articles each week at the Action Network. Chris,

969
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,240
Speaker 1: let's talk about these Sunday games. We have the fifth

970
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 1: seeded Chargers going against the number four Ravens. The Ravens

971
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:57,279
Speaker 1: favored right now by three, a forty one point five

972
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 1: over under. The total is down from forty two. Has

973
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 1: been a little bit of vacillation back and forth on

974
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 1: that line, but it opened at three and it currently

975
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 1: is at three. This is a rematch of the week

976
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 1: sixteen game in which the Ravens took it to the Chargers,

977
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 1: winning on the road twenty two to ten. Now the

978
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 1: Ravens are at home. They went four and five with

979
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,240
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco before the bye week. They made the injury

980
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 1: prompted change to Lamar Jackson after the bye, and they

981
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 1: finished the season on a six to one run. Their

982
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: only loss with Jackson was on the road in Kansas

983
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,879
Speaker 1: City and they lost by field goal in overtime. They've

984
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: been pretty impressive as a team with him so far.

985
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 1: The Chargers they tied with the Chiefs and records, but

986
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 1: they fell to the wild card spot because they have

987
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 1: the inferior divisional record. Real shame for them. After starting

988
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 1: one to two, they finished the year on an eleven

989
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 1: and two run So we have two very hot teams

990
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,320
Speaker 1: facing each other right now. What is your opinion?

991
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 3: I mean, these AFC players are just they have way

992
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 3: too many players that I mean, teams and players and

993
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 3: quarterbacks that I just love. I mean, I love the Texans,

994
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 3: I love you know, everyone knows I love the Chiefs

995
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:04,840
Speaker 3: from the jump.

996
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 2: You know, the Ravens are another team. I just love

997
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 2: these guys right now.

998
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Lamar Jackson, I think he's really proven.

999
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 3: He started to prove himself and this team and this

1000
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 3: scheme with Lamar is starting to prove itself. You know,

1001
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 3: I was, I was skeptical, you know, as it kind

1002
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 3: of started out with they faced literally the five horst

1003
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,920
Speaker 3: defenses in the league and Jackson's first five starts. But

1004
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,959
Speaker 3: I think seeing them go on the road and beat

1005
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,760
Speaker 3: the Chargers was kind of eye opening for me anyway.

1006
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,800
Speaker 3: And you know when you look at Jackson, like, yes,

1007
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 3: it's a very kind of weird offense. It's an extreme

1008
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 3: volume rushing attack and Jackson's not attempting even thirty passes,

1009
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 3: but they've been able to make it work. And a

1010
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 3: lot of the concerns you kind of have about a

1011
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 3: quarterback like that, such as, okay, you know, this could

1012
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 3: be an issue if they you know, they kind of

1013
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:52,720
Speaker 3: get down in a game and they have to throw

1014
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 3: a little more than usual. When I started to do

1015
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 3: a deeper dive into the numbers, it really there's not

1016
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 3: like Jackson that really doesn't look like it's gonna be

1017
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 3: as much of an issue as you might, you know, suspect.

1018
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 3: I mean, Jackson is number ten in passer rating under

1019
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 3: pressure on quarterbacks with two hundred or more dropbacks. If

1020
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 3: you look at the Pro Football Focus numbers, rivers there

1021
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 3: at seven. But then you look at all, right, Jackson's performance,

1022
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,760
Speaker 3: he's actually been a lot better. You know, when trailing,

1023
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 3: he's has a one eighteen point seven passer rating. When

1024
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 3: he's leading, it's actually fifty six point seven. He's got

1025
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 3: a better passer rating in the second half one oh

1026
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 3: four nine than the first half seventy two four. He's

1027
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 3: been great in the fourth quarter, one twenty point four

1028
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 3: passer rating, and it's actually been Rivers has been the

1029
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 3: guy who has struggled a bit in those situations he's got.

1030
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 3: You know, his passer rating of the fourth quarters, ninety

1031
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 3: seven point one in the fourth is the worst for

1032
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 3: him when there's less than four minutes remaining and his

1033
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:49,760
Speaker 3: team is trailing.

1034
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 2: That drops to seventy seven point seven. In the fourth quarter.

1035
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 3: With less than two minutes remaining, and this team is trailing,

1036
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 3: rivers passer rating drops to fifty two point one. And

1037
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 3: I don't know if you've noticed this, but I mean something.

1038
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 3: I don't know if it's because of the you know,

1039
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 3: the running game has kind of been banged up over

1040
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 3: these last couple of games, but I mean, over these

1041
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 3: last three games, Philip Rivers, something's been off with him.

1042
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 3: You know, he had nine point one yards in attempt,

1043
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 3: two point two touchdowns, only a half interception per game

1044
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 3: over his first thirteen and he only got sacked one

1045
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 3: point nine times a game over that span.

1046
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 2: Over the last three, just six.

1047
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 3: Point eight yards in attempt, one touchdown, two interceptions, multiple

1048
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 3: interceptions and all three of those games. And he's also

1049
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:30,799
Speaker 3: taken three sacks a game over that span. So the

1050
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 3: running game is still not where it needs to be

1051
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 3: because you have Gordon banged up, got hurt late in

1052
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 3: that game. Again, again we see them, you know, Gordon

1053
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 3: in a game where he probably shouldn't be in getting

1054
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 3: hurt and uh.

1055
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 1: And then you have.

1056
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 3: Eckler also has an injury. And this is a rush

1057
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 3: defense that's number six in DVOA. So I mean, what

1058
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 3: do you think? I mean, what are your thoughts.

1059
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,440
Speaker 2: On just you am I crazy?

1060
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 3: Or is there something kind of a little bit off

1061
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 3: about this Charger offense and that might not be able

1062
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 3: they might not be able to correct against the Ravens.

1063
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know. This is a really tough game

1064
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:08,280
Speaker 1: for me to look at. I bet a small position,

1065
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 1: but I did take the Chargers at plus three. But

1066
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 1: I just feel as if I'm going to lose, and

1067
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 1: like in my heart, I'm like, the Ravens are going

1068
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 1: to win this game. Well, I think what is so

1069
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 1: impressive about the Ravens is that, well, one, they did

1070
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:22,839
Speaker 1: this change in the middle of the season, and maybe

1071
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 1: in some way that's kind of helped them because teams

1072
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,799
Speaker 1: have had to just adjust on the fly, and they

1073
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: have such a difficult offense to prepare for just because

1074
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 1: it is unlike any other. It's like the teams that

1075
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,839
Speaker 1: in college that run the triple option or something. It's like, oh,

1076
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 1: we have to prepare for this one random offense that

1077
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 1: is unlike anything else we see throughout the season. So

1078
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 1: they have that dynamic going for them, the one thing

1079
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 1: that and then they also have a really good defense

1080
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 1: to pair with that, which makes it hard I think

1081
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: for teams to beat them like they are. They are

1082
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:56,800
Speaker 1: always in games because of the way that their offense

1083
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 1: complements their defense. I think one thing that they do

1084
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: have they being at this point that the Chargers, that

1085
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:03,799
Speaker 1: they do have going in their favor is that they

1086
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 1: did already play the Ravens once, and that actually kind

1087
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: of dovetails in with the struggles that they've had in

1088
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 1: the last three weeks on the road at Kansas, second

1089
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 1: game in division, going against I mean, Kansas's defense isn't good,

1090
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 1: but they can generate a pass rush, so you know,

1091
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 1: I think you can sort of excuse what happens on

1092
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,839
Speaker 1: the road in division late in the season. They won

1093
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: that game.

1094
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:28,959
Speaker 2: By the way, they won that game, let's give them credit.

1095
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 3: It was a bad you know, rivers through two picks

1096
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:33,479
Speaker 3: and they got in a big hole and that wasn't good,

1097
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 3: but they did win, so I give them credit for that. Yeah.

1098
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 1: So, like there are three games in which they struggled.

1099
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 1: One was against the Ravens in this kind of you know,

1100
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 1: tough game going against a good defense, and then the

1101
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 1: other two games are on the road late in the

1102
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 1: season against divisional opponents. So like I can kind of

1103
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 1: understand it either way. And I mean, I don't think

1104
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 1: the offense has looked great, but I think like it's

1105
00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 1: a it's a small sample, and I think it's an

1106
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:03,240
Speaker 1: explain sample. So like, if there are Chargers truthers out there,

1107
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,240
Speaker 1: like I think they can explain it away and feel

1108
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:09,719
Speaker 1: maybe comfortable enough taking the plus three knowing that they

1109
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 1: are basically just as good as the team that has

1110
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 1: the number one seed. I think the question is, like,

1111
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 1: do you think that the Chargers are almost as good

1112
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 1: or just as good as as the Chiefs?

1113
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 3: All Right, So you know, every week we do the

1114
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 3: betting guides for each game and for Ravens Chargers. My

1115
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 3: assignment was which quarterback do you trust more? And also

1116
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 3: the coaching staff. And so when I started to do

1117
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 3: my research, you know, you know, I usually bet games

1118
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 3: like later in the week. I'm not one of those

1119
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 3: big like jump on lines early because I do like

1120
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 3: to do my research, so it's it's more rare when

1121
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 3: I jump on lines early. But I just expected to

1122
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 3: light the Chargers a lot because again I think to

1123
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 3: your point, like they it's their second matchup with the Ravens.

1124
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:56,680
Speaker 3: That's something that in addition to Lamar Jackson playing just

1125
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 3: this very easy schedule, no team had really been able

1126
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 3: to prepare for twice, right, So I was thinking, okay

1127
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 3: that and then you had we have an article on

1128
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:07,359
Speaker 3: Action network dot com slash NFL right now that talks

1129
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 3: about how, you know, the Charges are the trendiest pick

1130
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 3: of the weekend, and not only are the trendiest pick,

1131
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 3: you know, getting over sixty percent of the bets right now,

1132
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:16,839
Speaker 3: but they're also the trendy underdog, right Like they're they're

1133
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 3: the underdog and they're getting this kind of action, and yeah,

1134
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 3: that makes me feel really nervous, right, But what's crazy

1135
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 3: is that, you know, you know, if you read the article,

1136
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 3: you know, the main upshot of it is that this

1137
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 3: has actually been a profitable spot in the playoffs, unlike

1138
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 3: the regular season. You know, we're usually you know, fading

1139
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 3: the public is more often than not going to be profitable.

1140
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,320
Speaker 3: I'm relative to doing the opposites in the playoffs. In

1141
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 3: the NFL playoffs, it actually, you know, went the public

1142
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 3: tends to be on the right side when they are

1143
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 3: on the side of a trendy underdog or whatnot. So

1144
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 3: for all these reasons, anyway, I expected to like the Charges,

1145
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 3: and then I'm looking into it and it's I do

1146
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 3: agree that the three game sample is somewhat explainable based

1147
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 3: on their opponents.

1148
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:58,800
Speaker 2: But that's the point. Like this, this game is against

1149
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:03,239
Speaker 2: the Ravens, and it's just the brutal matchup because the

1150
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:06,320
Speaker 2: Chargers are essentially on defense. They're built to stop the pass.

1151
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 3: They have good cornerbacks, they have good pass rushers, they're

1152
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 3: good at like funneling the ball to you know, the

1153
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 3: middle of the field. And you know they had they

1154
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:15,360
Speaker 3: you know, they have Durham James, they have you know,

1155
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 3: they have a lot of just a lot of guys

1156
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 3: that can you know, cause problems for other teams against

1157
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 3: the pass. Against the run, they're not as bad as

1158
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:25,279
Speaker 3: they were in years past. They're pretty average at this

1159
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 3: point against the run. But we know that, you know,

1160
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 3: there's not a big difference between you know, like four

1161
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 3: yards or Carrie four point three to three point whatever.

1162
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 3: It's like it's the same thing at the end of

1163
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 3: the day. Teams are gonna need to pass. But like

1164
00:52:36,000 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 3: the fact that the Ravens are gonna be able to

1165
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:41,520
Speaker 3: run this this high volume run rushing attack, and the

1166
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 3: Chargers are missing linebackers now, like they're miss First of all,

1167
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 3: they're missing you know, He's he's like their best run

1168
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 3: defender in terms of PFF three. Then they're missing who

1169
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 3: Ja Davis Brown and uh and Denzel Perriman. Denzel Perriman,

1170
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,800
Speaker 3: those are their two highest volume defenders in terms of

1171
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 3: run run defense snaps. This season looks like, you know,

1172
00:52:57,600 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 3: like those guys are out, so you just have a

1173
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:03,440
Speaker 3: it's just like not an ideal situation from that standpoint,

1174
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 3: And then like on the other side, you have the

1175
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 3: running backs banged up, you know for the Chargers, and

1176
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:09,919
Speaker 3: and and a good run defense like for a team

1177
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 3: that and then you Baltimore obviously a good pass defense

1178
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 3: as well. The Chargers are, you know, a very good offense.

1179
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 3: But I mean this is Baltimore is you know, tied

1180
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 3: for number one in the league and yards per play allowed,

1181
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 3: and it's in Baltimore, right So and Rivers is a statue,

1182
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,400
Speaker 3: and so he's thrown multiple interceptions in his last three games.

1183
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:30,760
Speaker 3: He gets if he gets pressured, you know, the chances

1184
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 3: of that happening again are reasonably high. So, like, you know,

1185
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 3: it's just a tough matchup for the Charges because I

1186
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 3: was ready to jump on them, like I'm not gonna lie,

1187
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 3: like just like you did. Like I was ready to

1188
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 3: jump on them at that line. And like now I'm

1189
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 3: thinking that you know, they're they're a trendy dog. The

1190
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 3: money's kind of on them too.

1191
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:48,479
Speaker 2: Right now.

1192
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:50,800
Speaker 3: I'm thinking that the line might go down, And I'm

1193
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:52,880
Speaker 3: just waiting now at this point to bet the Ravens

1194
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:55,359
Speaker 3: because I mean, I do agree with everything. I've been

1195
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 3: a lot more trend based and it's it's been profitable

1196
00:53:57,680 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 3: for me this season, you know, kind of looking at

1197
00:53:59,880 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 3: like Action Network and on our trends. But I mean,

1198
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 3: I just can't find a reason to better against the

1199
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:05,520
Speaker 3: Ravens at this point, Like, I just can't.

1200
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 1: I just don't.

1201
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 3: It's just like literally, I think the worst matchup that

1202
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 3: the Chargers could have drawn in the playoffs and in

1203
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 3: the entire just in the entire league essentially.

1204
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I don't think anyone wants to play

1205
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:20,520
Speaker 1: the Ravens. And so for me, I and I should say,

1206
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 1: like for for my official pick, I'm going under forty

1207
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 1: one and a half. I don't. I don't know if

1208
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:25,720
Speaker 1: we hit any kind of yeah.

1209
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:28,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, because I think again, like the Chargers are built

1210
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 3: on on on offense. They're built on pass offense, and

1211
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 3: when and when they have kind of gotten too higher

1212
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:36,720
Speaker 3: scoring games, it's been they've like we've seen them come back.

1213
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:37,359
Speaker 2: You know, against the Chiefs.

1214
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 3: We've seen you know, there's been these games where they

1215
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:41,359
Speaker 3: can kind of throw their way back into games even

1216
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:42,879
Speaker 3: if they get down, and.

1217
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:44,359
Speaker 2: I just don't think they they're going to be able

1218
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 2: to do that against the Ravens.

1219
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 3: And that combined with the Ravens a high volume run

1220
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,319
Speaker 3: team that's going to kind of control the football. Yeah, yeah,

1221
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:52,319
Speaker 3: I love then, I love the under, but I'm I'm

1222
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:54,439
Speaker 3: also I'm liking the Ravens more and more the more

1223
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 3: the more I look into.

1224
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 1: It, Yeah, and I'm with you there. For me, it

1225
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:01,719
Speaker 1: was a sort of like just a quick draw, like

1226
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 1: I see a plus three. I see the Chargers as

1227
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 1: the team that I think like might be better even

1228
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:11,600
Speaker 1: though they're on the road, like kind of like matchup agnostic.

1229
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:14,360
Speaker 1: I think they might be the better team, and I

1230
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 1: see them getting plus three, And my thought was, Okay,

1231
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:18,359
Speaker 1: I'm going to take a small position on it now

1232
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 1: and then research, knowing that I probably won't have the

1233
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:23,399
Speaker 1: chance or I might not have the chance to get

1234
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 1: the plus three later in the week. So if my

1235
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 1: research shows that I like the Chargers, then at least

1236
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:31,839
Speaker 1: I bet the Chargers at plus three. It probably better

1237
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:34,280
Speaker 1: odds than I can get later. And if I don't

1238
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 1: like the Chargers later, it was just a small position

1239
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:39,799
Speaker 1: and I can bet it on the other side when

1240
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 1: the line comes down. That was the thought there. But yeah,

1241
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:44,840
Speaker 1: I'm with you. Under forty one and a half, I

1242
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 1: definitely like that bet, okay. The final game, the world

1243
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 1: champion sixth seeded Eagles at the third seeded Bears. The

1244
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:57,479
Speaker 1: Bears favored by six a forty one point over under

1245
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 1: the spread is down from seven. The Sharps have reportedly

1246
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,719
Speaker 1: back to the Eagles, the total is down from forty

1247
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 1: one and a half. Starter Carson Wentz is out for

1248
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:10,320
Speaker 1: the Eagles with the back injury, so Super Bowl MVP

1249
00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 1: Nick Fowles will once again fill in. The Eagles are

1250
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,439
Speaker 1: four and one with Foles this year. They've won five

1251
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 1: of their last six games, including three straight must win

1252
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,840
Speaker 1: games with Bowles to close the year. The Bears have

1253
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,879
Speaker 1: beat the Vikings in Week seventeen to knock them out

1254
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:25,960
Speaker 1: of the playoffs, choosing rather to face the Eagles this

1255
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:28,040
Speaker 1: week instead of the Vikings. Two weeks in a row,

1256
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:30,520
Speaker 1: the Bears won nine of their last ten games to

1257
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:33,560
Speaker 1: win the NFC North for the first time since twenty

1258
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:37,320
Speaker 1: ten the Lovey Smith era. What are you doing, Chris

1259
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 1: with this game.

1260
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 2: Of hammering the Eagles hammering?

1261
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 1: Yes?

1262
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:46,960
Speaker 7: Yeah, well, I mean like like hammering, I mean, come on,

1263
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 7: like it's first of all, just off the strength of

1264
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 7: this being, this is the largest spread of the four

1265
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:52,840
Speaker 7: games on the slate.

1266
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:57,320
Speaker 3: And I mean, you know, obviously, every this is the playoffs.

1267
00:56:57,360 --> 00:56:59,440
Speaker 3: Every team has a chance to win these games of

1268
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 3: a good a good chance to win the game. So

1269
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 3: which is why the other three games that are close.

1270
00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 3: And I think, like listen, you know, I love love

1271
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:07,440
Speaker 3: the Bears. I think Matt Nagge deserves a lot of

1272
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 3: credit and Ryan Pace and just everyone in that organization

1273
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 3: for the quick turnaround. You know, from five to eleven

1274
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 3: to twelve and four had a chance, you know, playing

1275
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 3: for essentially a first round buy up up until the

1276
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 3: final week.

1277
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 2: Of the season.

1278
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 3: But I mean, I think you have to be worried

1279
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 3: if you are a Chicago Bears fan because and if

1280
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 3: your Chicago Bears better as well, because you know, we've

1281
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 3: seen Nick Foles comes in here, they beat the Rams

1282
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 3: who finished thirteen and three, they beat the Texans who

1283
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 3: finished eleven and five. You know, we've seen Foles kind

1284
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 3: of have this magical playoff run last season where you know,

1285
00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 3: he throws for over nine hundred yards averages over three

1286
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 3: hundred yards a game.

1287
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 2: In the three game postseason.

1288
00:57:46,320 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 3: Run, he puts up three hundred and fifty three yards

1289
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 3: and three scores on the vikings, which is like, you know,

1290
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 3: it was like a top two defense, just like the

1291
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:55,280
Speaker 3: Bears are this year. And I granted the one difference

1292
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 3: being that Philadelphia was at home for that game. But

1293
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 3: you know, still I think I believe Philadelphia was actual

1294
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 3: an underdog in that spot. So a lot of similarities

1295
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 3: between you know, this year and last year and and

1296
00:58:06,600 --> 00:58:10,080
Speaker 3: and with Foles in here, this team is a threat.

1297
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 3: And I mean Foles at this point now essentially has

1298
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 3: better weapons than he had last year because you've added

1299
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 3: you know, you had Foes and Jeffrey and Aglar last year,

1300
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 3: but now you've added Golden Tate. It looks like they

1301
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 3: might even have you know, get Mike Wallace back for

1302
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 3: some snaps. Yeahs, darren Sproles, right, so you have and

1303
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 3: you know, you still have a solid you know, again

1304
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 3: running game not making a huge difference, but you mean,

1305
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 3: you still have a solid running game. You know, Adams

1306
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:37,960
Speaker 3: has been has been decent, and you know, the offensive

1307
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 3: line is solid.

1308
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 2: You still have, you know, some on the other side

1309
00:58:41,080 --> 00:58:41,360
Speaker 2: of the ball.

1310
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:43,680
Speaker 3: You still have players on that interior, and you have

1311
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 3: the you have you have the experience. You know, so

1312
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 3: like Matt Naggy, one of the best things about the

1313
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 3: Bears in one of their assets is that you know,

1314
00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:51,760
Speaker 3: they have Matt Naggy over here, and look at how

1315
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 3: he kind of turned this team around that quickly. But

1316
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:56,200
Speaker 3: and of course Vic Fangy on the other side of

1317
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 3: one defense excellent as well. But the Eagles are very

1318
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 3: well coached as well, and that not only are they

1319
00:59:00,600 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 3: well coached with with Doug Peterson, you have Jim Schwartz

1320
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:05,160
Speaker 3: looking over the defense, coordinating the defense, but.

1321
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 2: They have they literally have just done this.

1322
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 3: They've just done this kind of come in improbable Super

1323
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 3: Bowl run with their backup quarterback Nick Foles, beat a

1324
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 3: good defense along the way, and so yes, the bear.

1325
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 2: Should be favored.

1326
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 3: Should they be favored by six, five and a half

1327
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:23,960
Speaker 3: whatever spread we're seeing, I think it opened at seven,

1328
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:25,920
Speaker 3: not at all like I think this game should be

1329
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 3: kind of in the same rangees as these other.

1330
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:30,760
Speaker 2: Games, and it's not. So I love the Eagles. I

1331
00:59:30,800 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 2: think they have a real shot to win this game.

1332
00:59:33,200 --> 00:59:35,520
Speaker 3: And there's actually you know, from a trend based perspective

1333
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 3: as well, when you look at these turnarounds since nineteen

1334
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 3: ninety teams that have made a seven plus win improvement

1335
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 3: from the previous year, they are just fifteen and twenty

1336
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 3: straight up in the playoffs, and then they're even worse

1337
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 3: against the spread, eleven and twenty four.

1338
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:51,840
Speaker 2: So that's a thirty one percent cover rate.

1339
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:54,600
Speaker 3: So I mean, just so many reasons to back the

1340
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:58,760
Speaker 3: Eagles in this spot in Chicago, even despite their Chicago's

1341
00:59:58,800 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 3: want the defense.

1342
00:59:59,800 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on all of that. You know

1343
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 1: how Like in investing they talk about like having a

1344
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: moat or like like margin of error, Like my margin

1345
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:11,320
Speaker 1: of error is that, Like I think the Eagles could

1346
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 1: really win this game, but like I'm not going to

1347
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 1: bet the money line on it, like I don't need to.

1348
01:00:16,440 --> 01:00:19,320
Speaker 1: I mean, like in terms of like our little competition

1349
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 1: right here, you like, I'm not going to bet the

1350
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:24,200
Speaker 1: money line on it. I might be wrong on them covering,

1351
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:26,480
Speaker 1: so I don't need to take the plus six, Like

1352
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 1: I feel like it's it's stone cold lock that they

1353
01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 1: can get seventeen and a half points, you know, on

1354
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 1: the team total.

1355
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 3: I wouldn't say stone cold, Like I feel better about this.

1356
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:38,080
Speaker 3: I still take the plus six over the their team

1357
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:41,440
Speaker 3: total because I mean again, like I think like January

1358
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:46,000
Speaker 3: game in Chicago kind of reminiscent of remember that game

1359
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 3: like the Eagles played against Atlanta. I think it was

1360
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:50,880
Speaker 3: in the opening round last year where that was a

1361
01:00:50,880 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 3: low scoring game. Like I think I don't think it's

1362
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 3: a lot because I think this game could just be

1363
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:57,360
Speaker 3: a low scoring game. I mean, we still like the Eagles,

1364
01:00:57,400 --> 01:00:59,080
Speaker 3: all right, they they kind of held the Rams in

1365
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 3: check in LA. Yes, you know the Houston, but again,

1366
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 3: Houston their ballers. That's why they were able to put.

1367
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 2: Up some points. And then they shut out the rest

1368
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 2: of the Josh Johnson Redskins, which you know isn't a

1369
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:10,560
Speaker 2: big deal, but you know, they took care of business

1370
01:01:10,560 --> 01:01:12,640
Speaker 2: and shut out a team that you know they weren't

1371
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 2: supposed to give up a lot of points. So, I mean,

1372
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:15,919
Speaker 2: this defense is kind of clicking at the right time.

1373
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 1: Like I think, I.

1374
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:19,040
Speaker 2: Think we could just see a lower scoring game. So

1375
01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 2: like I wouldn't say it's a I wouldn't say like

1376
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 2: it's a lot that they can get over set.

1377
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:26,480
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I feel Chicago. I have a lot

1378
01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:29,600
Speaker 1: of respect for their defense. But I just I feel

1379
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 1: very confident in this offense. And I can see what

1380
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:34,439
Speaker 1: you're saying, like it could be a fourteen to ten

1381
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:38,080
Speaker 1: day either way. It is in Chicago. There could be

1382
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 1: cold weather. I understand all of that, but you know,

1383
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 1: like Folds has played in cold weather, Like it's I

1384
01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:47,160
Speaker 1: don't think it will necessarily impact the Eagles the way

1385
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:50,040
Speaker 1: that it would impact. I don't know, like the Saints

1386
01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:52,720
Speaker 1: or like a warm weather team, you know what I mean.

1387
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:54,760
Speaker 1: I feel like the Eagles can play in cold weather.

1388
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 1: I don't know if people listen to, but they definitely

1389
01:01:57,200 --> 01:02:01,000
Speaker 1: should listen to the Favorites podcast with Chad Milman, and

1390
01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:03,200
Speaker 1: on the Wednesday show he has Bob Scucci on it,

1391
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 1: and Scooch said that at this point they have I mean,

1392
01:02:07,320 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 1: it sounds crazy to say it, but they have foals

1393
01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 1: as worth more to that team in terms of points

1394
01:02:12,920 --> 01:02:15,520
Speaker 1: than Carson Wentz at least the wins that they have

1395
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 1: seen this season. I think there's a very real chance

1396
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:22,640
Speaker 1: that the Eagles win. But I feel I think if

1397
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:25,720
Speaker 1: they win, I think it's because they score points. I

1398
01:02:25,760 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 1: think their their secondary is still suspect enough and Matt

1399
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 1: Naggy is good enough as a play caller to be

1400
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:39,080
Speaker 1: able to exploit the weaknesses of the Eagles secondary. So

1401
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: I think if the Eagles win, it's because they put

1402
01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 1: up a decent number of points, and seventeen and a

1403
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:46,880
Speaker 1: half is just so low. I mean, like a pick six,

1404
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:49,480
Speaker 1: you know from Truebisky. It could help them get there.

1405
01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:51,680
Speaker 1: Like there are just so many ways that they could

1406
01:02:51,680 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 1: get to seventeen and a half.

1407
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 3: That's definitely fair. I mean, I do I would worry

1408
01:02:56,560 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 3: about I don't. I didn't like what I saw from

1409
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:02,640
Speaker 3: this from the the offense against like against the Niners,

1410
01:03:02,640 --> 01:03:05,200
Speaker 3: for example, they only scored a fourteen points. Now, they

1411
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:08,280
Speaker 3: did score twenty four against the Vikings, but like if

1412
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 3: the Bears aren't scoring a lot of points, like I

1413
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:13,000
Speaker 3: just yeah, I think it could be a one of

1414
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 3: those lower scoring games.

1415
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:15,280
Speaker 2: But I do Geart you say, I mean the Eves,

1416
01:03:15,960 --> 01:03:18,280
Speaker 2: you know that. It's like I don't want them to.

1417
01:03:18,240 --> 01:03:20,400
Speaker 3: Have a deep postseason run because I kind of want

1418
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 3: the Giants to get a to get Nick Foles. And

1419
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:26,240
Speaker 3: I feel like every game that he that he that

1420
01:03:26,240 --> 01:03:28,440
Speaker 3: he every postseason game that he wins, his price just

1421
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:29,080
Speaker 3: goes higher.

1422
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:31,920
Speaker 1: I mean, seriously, let's let's step outside of this just

1423
01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 1: for a second. Boles somehow wins a second super Bowl.

1424
01:03:36,000 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 1: I mean, like, is is he a Hall of Famer

1425
01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 1: at that point? I know it sounds crazy to say that,

1426
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:44,320
Speaker 1: but like, how do you not like put a guy

1427
01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:46,640
Speaker 1: like that who has like because if he wins a

1428
01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:49,760
Speaker 1: super Bowl, it's going to be another fantastic run. You

1429
01:03:49,840 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 1: know what I mean, So, how do you put a

1430
01:03:51,600 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 1: guy like that who comes off the bench two years

1431
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:56,200
Speaker 1: in a row to lead a team that seems dead

1432
01:03:56,480 --> 01:03:59,240
Speaker 1: to two Super Bowls? And then let's assume, you know,

1433
01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:01,720
Speaker 1: and then like years before that, he had had like

1434
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:06,040
Speaker 1: a fantastic, near all time great type of season in

1435
01:04:06,080 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 1: the Chip Kelly era. And then let's assume he tax

1436
01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 1: on some seasons that are like, you know, at least

1437
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:15,200
Speaker 1: league average on the back half of his career. Like,

1438
01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 1: I don't know, he's probably not a Hall of Famer,

1439
01:04:18,320 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 1: but like there's a case to be made there.

1440
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:24,000
Speaker 3: You know, he also had the twenty seven touchdown two

1441
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:27,720
Speaker 3: interception like ridiculous season he put up the he tied

1442
01:04:27,720 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 3: the touchdown record with seven touchdowns in a game.

1443
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:32,520
Speaker 2: I think that year too. I mean, he's hot, like

1444
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:33,160
Speaker 2: his ceiling.

1445
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:33,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1446
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 3: The only I guess the only knock would be that,

1447
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:37,920
Speaker 3: you know, during these runs, like it was, he didn't

1448
01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 3: start many games. You know, he even only have started

1449
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:43,680
Speaker 3: like a cup a handful of of regular season games,

1450
01:04:43,720 --> 01:04:45,120
Speaker 3: and most of the starts came into postseason.

1451
01:04:45,200 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 2: So I mean, I guess that's the thing you would

1452
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:47,480
Speaker 2: knock it for.

1453
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:49,360
Speaker 3: But I mean, yeah, it's It's definitely an interesting question

1454
01:04:49,440 --> 01:04:51,640
Speaker 3: given that, like you know, you're talking about people like

1455
01:04:51,680 --> 01:04:54,160
Speaker 3: Eli probably ending up going to the Hall of Fame

1456
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:55,960
Speaker 3: based on his two super.

1457
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:59,480
Speaker 1: Bowl Yeah, I mean, I know, Rocky is a fictional character.

1458
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 1: Don't telling one in Philadelphia that, but like if if

1459
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:05,439
Speaker 1: Nick Foles wins another super Bowl, like he's like he's

1460
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:08,000
Speaker 1: the biggest person in Philadelphia history, and that includes like

1461
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:14,400
Speaker 1: Benjamin Franklin, you know, like you know, like he's like

1462
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:18,040
Speaker 1: up in like the pantheon of like all time Philadelphia greats.

1463
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:18,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a third.

1464
01:05:19,000 --> 01:05:21,360
Speaker 1: All right, We're going to talk about the Sunday slate

1465
01:05:21,360 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 1: from the DFS perspective, right after Ian Hartez tells us

1466
01:05:24,920 --> 01:05:28,560
Speaker 1: about the key wild Card weekend coverage situations.

1467
01:05:30,480 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 4: The press, the jam, and the five yardum Ian Harden

1468
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:39,680
Speaker 4: springs you dance of the divas.

1469
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:45,200
Speaker 8: The Wildcard round isn't expected to feature any wide receiver

1470
01:05:45,320 --> 01:05:48,240
Speaker 8: cornerback shadow matchups, although there as a chance the Colts

1471
01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:51,280
Speaker 8: have Pierre to see her once again followed DeAndre Hopkins,

1472
01:05:51,360 --> 01:05:53,480
Speaker 8: as they did in their second matchup of the season.

1473
01:05:53,840 --> 01:05:56,840
Speaker 8: Either way, Hopkins is more than capable of roasting whoever

1474
01:05:56,840 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 8: he lines up against. Incredibly this season, Hopkins had a

1475
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:03,800
Speaker 8: hundred and fifteen receptions and zero drops. As for the Colts,

1476
01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:05,960
Speaker 8: t Y Hilton is set up just as well, if

1477
01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:09,240
Speaker 8: not better, indoors against the Texans defense he's roasted throughout

1478
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:12,720
Speaker 8: his entire career. Also, Dontre m Men against Sharis Wright

1479
01:06:12,920 --> 01:06:16,680
Speaker 8: is another mismatch worth exploring in fantasy. Both Amari Cooper

1480
01:06:16,760 --> 01:06:18,840
Speaker 8: and Michael Gallup are set up well on the outside

1481
01:06:18,840 --> 01:06:22,320
Speaker 8: against Seahawks' liability Shaquille Griffin and Trey Flowers, while the

1482
01:06:22,600 --> 01:06:25,640
Speaker 8: Seahawks will look to exploit the Cowboys inside with Doug

1483
01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:28,960
Speaker 8: Baldwin and Tyler Lockett against Anthony Brown, the Cowboys slot

1484
01:06:29,000 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 8: cornerback who's PFF's number sixty six overall cornerback. This season,

1485
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 8: the Ravens don't really throw the ball enough to explore

1486
01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:38,160
Speaker 8: their wide receivers, but Willie Snead has been the most

1487
01:06:38,160 --> 01:06:41,040
Speaker 8: reliable guy in an unreliable passing game with Lamar Jackson

1488
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:44,200
Speaker 8: under center. Meanwhile, the Chargers' best bet for success is

1489
01:06:44,280 --> 01:06:46,640
Speaker 8: Keenan Allen in the slot, as Taevon Young is the

1490
01:06:46,680 --> 01:06:49,800
Speaker 8: weak link of the Ravens. Otherwise excellent secondary for the

1491
01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:52,760
Speaker 8: Eagles and Bears, Alshon Jeffrey has been Nick foles number

1492
01:06:52,800 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 8: two receiver over these last three weeks. He's in position

1493
01:06:55,760 --> 01:06:57,800
Speaker 8: to really have a bunch of trouble against Chris M

1494
01:06:57,800 --> 01:07:01,920
Speaker 8: Milkamura and Kyle Fuller, respectively. Golden Tabor's Sheriff rank Manus

1495
01:07:02,040 --> 01:07:04,360
Speaker 8: is a spot to look for. As for the Bears,

1496
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:07,200
Speaker 8: Alan Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Anthony Miller are all set

1497
01:07:07,280 --> 01:07:09,920
Speaker 8: up incredibly well against Avonte maddox or Sul Douglas and

1498
01:07:09,920 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 8: Cravon LeBlanc and the Philadelpha Eagles injury riddled secondary.

1499
01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:15,160
Speaker 1: All Right, that was Ian. Be sure to check out

1500
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:18,160
Speaker 1: his wide receiver quarterback matchup column each week at the

1501
01:07:18,200 --> 01:07:22,080
Speaker 1: Action Network. Chris, let's talk about the Sunday slate. Let's

1502
01:07:22,160 --> 01:07:24,800
Speaker 1: look at the quarterbacks. It is really a wide open

1503
01:07:24,840 --> 01:07:27,760
Speaker 1: group of guys here, Whereas on the Saturday slate it

1504
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:31,560
Speaker 1: seems like most people will probably want either Luck or Watson.

1505
01:07:31,680 --> 01:07:33,920
Speaker 1: This slate, it's I think it's a little more wide open.

1506
01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:36,080
Speaker 1: What are you doing with this quarterback group?

1507
01:07:36,560 --> 01:07:38,120
Speaker 2: I almost think it's I think it's gonna be Lamar

1508
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 2: for me in this one.

1509
01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 1: I know.

1510
01:07:40,120 --> 01:07:43,000
Speaker 3: I just he's just the guy I feel the most

1511
01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:45,560
Speaker 3: confident in at this point. I mean, I do I

1512
01:07:45,760 --> 01:07:48,160
Speaker 3: like Rubisky as well, and I think the fact that

1513
01:07:48,200 --> 01:07:48,960
Speaker 3: he's going against this.

1514
01:07:49,040 --> 01:07:51,400
Speaker 2: Eagle defense that has been vulnerable on.

1515
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:54,840
Speaker 3: The back end and Trubisky does run and addle out

1516
01:07:54,840 --> 01:07:56,560
Speaker 3: with his rushing ability. I mean, I think there's a

1517
01:07:56,600 --> 01:07:59,560
Speaker 3: case to be made for him, But the fact that

1518
01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:04,480
Speaker 3: he is is three hundred more than Lamar Jackson that

1519
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 3: kind of changes it a little bit for me. I

1520
01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:09,240
Speaker 3: think on fan Buel, you could make a better case,

1521
01:08:09,560 --> 01:08:11,360
Speaker 3: you know, for Trubisky because he's five you know, he's

1522
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:13,800
Speaker 3: five hundreds less than Jackson. But if he's gonna be more,

1523
01:08:13,920 --> 01:08:17,000
Speaker 3: if I'm getting Jackson for cheaper, uh, then I think

1524
01:08:17,080 --> 01:08:19,959
Speaker 3: I'm rolling with Jackson, because again, I'm not really confident

1525
01:08:20,000 --> 01:08:22,559
Speaker 3: in Rivers based on what he's done lately or just

1526
01:08:22,800 --> 01:08:24,519
Speaker 3: based on the matchup and the fact that he's like

1527
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:27,320
Speaker 3: such a statue and can't really add anything with his legs,

1528
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:29,479
Speaker 3: and on top of that, he's becoming more turnal, he's

1529
01:08:29,560 --> 01:08:32,519
Speaker 3: like becoming his usual turnover pro him self. I guess

1530
01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:35,080
Speaker 3: I should say, wait in the year, I don't feel

1531
01:08:35,080 --> 01:08:37,160
Speaker 3: great about him, and then like Foles, I could like,

1532
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:39,840
Speaker 3: I think he's an excellent tournament play probably the best

1533
01:08:40,160 --> 01:08:43,920
Speaker 3: tournament play on the suit or either of the two days.

1534
01:08:43,960 --> 01:08:47,160
Speaker 3: In terms of quarterbacks, you know, it's still going against

1535
01:08:47,200 --> 01:08:48,599
Speaker 3: the Bears defense in a game.

1536
01:08:48,439 --> 01:08:49,639
Speaker 2: That could be well scoring.

1537
01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:53,040
Speaker 3: So don't really like love taking a discount with him

1538
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:54,479
Speaker 3: as much as I do with with a guy like

1539
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:57,800
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson, who's just been ridiculous, you know, with you know,

1540
01:08:57,840 --> 01:09:00,000
Speaker 3: against everyone with low volumes.

1541
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:02,639
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that just weaves me with Jackson

1542
01:09:02,720 --> 01:09:03,720
Speaker 2: by default.

1543
01:09:03,840 --> 01:09:06,400
Speaker 1: All Right, as we're recording this, it looks like Melvin

1544
01:09:06,439 --> 01:09:09,799
Speaker 1: Gordon is going to play, but there is like the

1545
01:09:09,800 --> 01:09:13,559
Speaker 1: the ankle concerns, what are you doing at running back position?

1546
01:09:13,920 --> 01:09:16,320
Speaker 1: Is I mean, is Gordon sort of like this slate's

1547
01:09:16,360 --> 01:09:20,600
Speaker 1: equivalent of Ezekiel Elliott.

1548
01:09:19,920 --> 01:09:22,040
Speaker 2: You know, not not to the same extent.

1549
01:09:22,479 --> 01:09:24,160
Speaker 3: There's not as much of a if you look at

1550
01:09:24,160 --> 01:09:26,240
Speaker 3: our models, for example, there's not as much as he

1551
01:09:26,320 --> 01:09:31,240
Speaker 3: still is the you know, the highest projected non quarterback

1552
01:09:31,360 --> 01:09:33,960
Speaker 3: on the slate, but there's not really the same type

1553
01:09:34,000 --> 01:09:37,840
Speaker 3: of gap between him and everybody else as there is

1554
01:09:37,880 --> 01:09:41,479
Speaker 3: between like Zeke and and everyone on.

1555
01:09:40,880 --> 01:09:41,800
Speaker 2: On the Saturday slate.

1556
01:09:42,080 --> 01:09:45,160
Speaker 3: But you're also getting a discount for Gordon, So I'm

1557
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:47,479
Speaker 3: not opposed to using him. I just he's not as

1558
01:09:47,520 --> 01:09:49,679
Speaker 3: like a much as much of a jam Amin guy

1559
01:09:50,160 --> 01:09:52,559
Speaker 3: for me as as it would have been. Now Echoer

1560
01:09:52,640 --> 01:09:54,800
Speaker 3: looks a little bit banged up as well, So that

1561
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:57,160
Speaker 3: actually might be good news for Gordon because we have

1562
01:09:57,280 --> 01:09:59,919
Speaker 3: you know, I think it was in the previous Ravens game, we've.

1563
01:09:59,680 --> 01:10:02,720
Speaker 2: Echo was out. No weeah, Echoer missed that game right

1564
01:10:02,760 --> 01:10:03,439
Speaker 2: two weeks ago.

1565
01:10:03,680 --> 01:10:08,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so Gordon was in for you know, got

1566
01:10:08,160 --> 01:10:11,200
Speaker 3: most of the usage in that game. I think if

1567
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:13,599
Speaker 3: echoers at less than one hundred percent, I think Gordon

1568
01:10:13,640 --> 01:10:15,920
Speaker 3: will still get a ton of usage, but not like

1569
01:10:15,960 --> 01:10:18,360
Speaker 3: a great spot for him in terms of his number

1570
01:10:18,360 --> 01:10:20,000
Speaker 3: one asset is always going to be the fact that

1571
01:10:20,040 --> 01:10:22,479
Speaker 3: he just scores a ridiculous amount of touchdowns and this.

1572
01:10:22,439 --> 01:10:25,240
Speaker 2: Is not one of those games where you're really expecting

1573
01:10:25,280 --> 01:10:26,080
Speaker 2: a lot of touchdowns.

1574
01:10:26,120 --> 01:10:27,599
Speaker 3: But at the same time, he was able to kind

1575
01:10:27,600 --> 01:10:29,400
Speaker 3: of get to the end zone against the Ravens.

1576
01:10:29,439 --> 01:10:31,120
Speaker 2: But I mean they really have and they do this

1577
01:10:31,200 --> 01:10:32,680
Speaker 2: with running backs in general.

1578
01:10:32,439 --> 01:10:34,240
Speaker 3: But they held him in check in the passing game,

1579
01:10:34,280 --> 01:10:36,960
Speaker 3: you know, thirteen yards on three targets, held him in

1580
01:10:37,040 --> 01:10:39,759
Speaker 3: check on the running game forty one yards on twelve carries.

1581
01:10:39,840 --> 01:10:41,160
Speaker 2: So I just think he's in a good.

1582
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:45,280
Speaker 3: Spot because of volume more so than because he's like,

1583
01:10:45,479 --> 01:10:47,320
Speaker 3: you know, it's like this smash spot for him. So

1584
01:10:47,479 --> 01:10:49,599
Speaker 3: I'm not opposed to going away from him, though he'll

1585
01:10:49,600 --> 01:10:52,320
Speaker 3: probably still end up in my lineup.

1586
01:10:52,520 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 1: Any other running backs. He's trying to catch your eye.

1587
01:10:54,840 --> 01:10:57,439
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Kenneth Dixon is becoming more like

1588
01:10:57,560 --> 01:11:00,760
Speaker 3: he's an interesting kind of lower call play. I mean,

1589
01:11:00,760 --> 01:11:03,160
Speaker 3: both Ravens running backs really Gus Edwards and Dixon, but

1590
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:06,000
Speaker 3: it's kind of been moving toward Dixon over these past

1591
01:11:06,000 --> 01:11:09,600
Speaker 3: few weeks in terms of the usage and the Dixon's getting.

1592
01:11:09,360 --> 01:11:12,479
Speaker 2: More and more and more involved as we go forward.

1593
01:11:12,520 --> 01:11:14,680
Speaker 3: And so I think that you know, last week, if

1594
01:11:14,720 --> 01:11:17,400
Speaker 3: you look at the rushing attempts, they were the backfield attemps

1595
01:11:17,439 --> 01:11:20,480
Speaker 3: were essentially split, they were split fifty fifty between Edwards

1596
01:11:20,520 --> 01:11:21,160
Speaker 3: and Dixon.

1597
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:23,040
Speaker 2: And so being at Dixon's.

1598
01:11:22,640 --> 01:11:26,080
Speaker 3: The lower price guy, and he can give you a

1599
01:11:26,120 --> 01:11:28,040
Speaker 3: little bit more in the passing game as well. I

1600
01:11:28,040 --> 01:11:30,559
Speaker 3: think he's a guy you really start to have to consider,

1601
01:11:30,720 --> 01:11:33,479
Speaker 3: especially with the Bears backs. I think Tarik Cohen will

1602
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:35,559
Speaker 3: probably be like, if you're getting off boarder, you probably

1603
01:11:35,560 --> 01:11:37,720
Speaker 3: want to go with with Tarik Cohen because he gives

1604
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:40,280
Speaker 3: you some of that passing, that receiving upside, but he's

1605
01:11:40,720 --> 01:11:43,000
Speaker 3: he's been getting less rushing work than usual, Like his

1606
01:11:43,200 --> 01:11:46,200
Speaker 3: percentage of backfield carries has been in the twenty percent

1607
01:11:46,280 --> 01:11:48,280
Speaker 3: range over these past few games, whereas for the season

1608
01:11:48,320 --> 01:11:50,800
Speaker 3: it's been more so in that in the thirty percent range.

1609
01:11:50,800 --> 01:11:52,920
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure if that's a short sample trend

1610
01:11:52,960 --> 01:11:53,240
Speaker 2: or what.

1611
01:11:53,320 --> 01:11:55,760
Speaker 3: But then you have Jordan Howard, who's another guy kind

1612
01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:57,920
Speaker 3: of like Gus Edwards, where you know, because he's a

1613
01:11:57,920 --> 01:12:00,360
Speaker 3: home favorite, you know you're not really to a but

1614
01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:02,160
Speaker 3: now he's kind of he's priced up a bit after

1615
01:12:02,200 --> 01:12:04,320
Speaker 3: the big game against Minnesota, so he's fifty eight hundred

1616
01:12:04,320 --> 01:12:06,479
Speaker 3: and for a guy that doesn't catch passes you don't

1617
01:12:06,479 --> 01:12:09,600
Speaker 3: really like, you don't really like that either, So I

1618
01:12:09,600 --> 01:12:11,599
Speaker 3: think they're like, you can definitely make a case to

1619
01:12:11,680 --> 01:12:14,880
Speaker 3: use a guy like Dixon even in cash games, just

1620
01:12:14,920 --> 01:12:17,080
Speaker 3: based on the recent usage trends.

1621
01:12:17,600 --> 01:12:21,479
Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to wide receiver Keenan. Allen is the

1622
01:12:21,520 --> 01:12:24,200
Speaker 1: guy who's standing out at the top of the salary scale,

1623
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:27,679
Speaker 1: but obviously a tough matchup, but not quite as bad

1624
01:12:27,800 --> 01:12:30,200
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, because he's going against Tevon Young in

1625
01:12:30,240 --> 01:12:32,719
Speaker 1: the slots, What are you looking to do a wide receiver.

1626
01:12:33,439 --> 01:12:35,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, like I think Alan is going to

1627
01:12:35,280 --> 01:12:37,960
Speaker 3: be more of a priority for me than than Gordon

1628
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:40,519
Speaker 3: because and I think you can easily get both of them,

1629
01:12:40,560 --> 01:12:42,479
Speaker 3: and I would have no problem playing both of them,

1630
01:12:42,479 --> 01:12:44,760
Speaker 3: and I think I might end up doing that. But

1631
01:12:44,880 --> 01:12:47,479
Speaker 3: you know, alans just the volume for him because as

1632
01:12:47,479 --> 01:12:51,120
Speaker 3: you mentioned, slot receiver, especially on draftings, where you know

1633
01:12:51,160 --> 01:12:53,360
Speaker 3: you're getting a point per reception and if you happen

1634
01:12:53,400 --> 01:12:55,400
Speaker 3: to hit that hundred yard bonus, you get another three.

1635
01:12:55,479 --> 01:12:56,880
Speaker 3: He could he has a more He has like a

1636
01:12:56,880 --> 01:12:59,680
Speaker 3: lot of avenues to still be productive. I mean, he

1637
01:12:59,720 --> 01:13:03,720
Speaker 3: could kind of get inefficient, high percentage you know, inefficient

1638
01:13:03,840 --> 01:13:06,000
Speaker 3: in terms of yardage, but still high percentage targets that

1639
01:13:06,000 --> 01:13:08,160
Speaker 3: turn into catches and can get a lot of catches.

1640
01:13:08,200 --> 01:13:08,639
Speaker 2: That way.

1641
01:13:09,280 --> 01:13:12,200
Speaker 3: The Chargers could end up struggling again and they'll just

1642
01:13:12,240 --> 01:13:14,120
Speaker 3: you know, they'll just need to throw a high volume

1643
01:13:14,120 --> 01:13:17,200
Speaker 3: of passes, which of course helps Alan because he's seeing

1644
01:13:17,280 --> 01:13:19,639
Speaker 3: more than more than twenty five percent of the team's

1645
01:13:19,680 --> 01:13:22,680
Speaker 3: targets when he's active. So I really I do like

1646
01:13:22,720 --> 01:13:25,360
Speaker 3: Allen in this spot again, not a smash spot for him.

1647
01:13:25,360 --> 01:13:28,320
Speaker 3: He only put up what was five catches for fifty

1648
01:13:28,360 --> 01:13:31,200
Speaker 3: eight yards on eight targets in the previous meeting, but

1649
01:13:32,000 --> 01:13:35,000
Speaker 3: that's still at seventy three hundred on dragts been priced down.

1650
01:13:35,040 --> 01:13:37,360
Speaker 3: I think it's very fair price for his kind of

1651
01:13:37,600 --> 01:13:39,240
Speaker 3: floor ceiling, all right.

1652
01:13:39,320 --> 01:13:41,439
Speaker 1: Any other wide receivers tend to catch your eye here.

1653
01:13:42,680 --> 01:13:44,360
Speaker 2: You know, it's it's tough because you can't.

1654
01:13:44,520 --> 01:13:46,160
Speaker 1: It's a kind of nasty slate here.

1655
01:13:46,640 --> 01:13:48,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, Because I mean, the Bears guys are really I

1656
01:13:48,720 --> 01:13:50,760
Speaker 3: think the guys you would be looking at, but they're

1657
01:13:50,800 --> 01:13:53,879
Speaker 3: all banged up, right, all of them are going to play.

1658
01:13:54,200 --> 01:13:57,639
Speaker 3: So I think Robinson still is eye catching, just based

1659
01:13:57,680 --> 01:14:01,080
Speaker 3: off the fact that the Eagles have struggled a ton

1660
01:14:01,520 --> 01:14:05,880
Speaker 3: against receivers, particularly number one wide receivers. They actually give

1661
01:14:05,960 --> 01:14:08,200
Speaker 3: up the most schedule adjustice yards in the league to

1662
01:14:08,280 --> 01:14:10,479
Speaker 3: number one wide receivers at ninety point two per game

1663
01:14:10,920 --> 01:14:14,880
Speaker 3: per Football Outsiders, also the second most targets schedule adjusted

1664
01:14:14,920 --> 01:14:17,800
Speaker 3: at nine point nine. So Robinson is a guy that

1665
01:14:17,920 --> 01:14:20,040
Speaker 3: you know, he's kind of eye catching, but he's not

1666
01:14:20,200 --> 01:14:22,840
Speaker 3: like he's still not a lock or anything like that.

1667
01:14:22,840 --> 01:14:23,639
Speaker 2: I don't think I.

1668
01:14:23,600 --> 01:14:26,000
Speaker 3: Think anyone on the on the slate is really a

1669
01:14:26,040 --> 01:14:29,160
Speaker 3: lock outside of outside of Allen though the Bears, you know,

1670
01:14:29,240 --> 01:14:30,600
Speaker 3: for the on the other on the eagle side, like

1671
01:14:30,640 --> 01:14:33,760
Speaker 3: the Bears actually have given up more production to wide

1672
01:14:33,760 --> 01:14:36,080
Speaker 3: receivers than you think. But now you have alshon Jeffrey

1673
01:14:36,120 --> 01:14:39,040
Speaker 3: Price all the way up to sixty five hundred. So

1674
01:14:39,400 --> 01:14:41,280
Speaker 3: I think, you know, I think I'm really going to

1675
01:14:41,320 --> 01:14:42,960
Speaker 3: probably try to get to figure out a way to

1676
01:14:42,960 --> 01:14:45,639
Speaker 3: get to get Robinson in, and then that third spot

1677
01:14:45,680 --> 01:14:48,599
Speaker 3: is probably just gonna be a punt play most likely

1678
01:14:48,600 --> 01:14:50,480
Speaker 3: because I don't even you know, it's.

1679
01:14:50,439 --> 01:14:52,360
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe or maybe. I mean, I'm not opposed to

1680
01:14:52,400 --> 01:14:55,880
Speaker 2: guy like Taylor Gabriel actually you know, but it's it's

1681
01:14:55,960 --> 01:14:58,200
Speaker 2: really tough. It's it's not it's not a great slate.

1682
01:14:58,600 --> 01:15:00,200
Speaker 3: I just don't want to touch the Ravens receive is

1683
01:15:00,200 --> 01:15:02,479
Speaker 3: because it's so hard, the volume is so low.

1684
01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:05,879
Speaker 1: Right a tight end, I think one of the questions

1685
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:08,679
Speaker 1: is are you going with zach Ertz or I mean,

1686
01:15:08,800 --> 01:15:10,799
Speaker 1: because it's not as if he has a great matchup,

1687
01:15:10,840 --> 01:15:13,120
Speaker 1: but the other tight end options on the slate aren't

1688
01:15:13,120 --> 01:15:15,640
Speaker 1: all that enticing either. I mean, I guess you have

1689
01:15:16,360 --> 01:15:19,960
Speaker 1: Trey Burton in a hashtag revenge game going against the Eagles.

1690
01:15:20,320 --> 01:15:22,639
Speaker 1: But are you are you locking in arts?

1691
01:15:23,240 --> 01:15:24,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Ertz is definitely a guy on locking

1692
01:15:25,040 --> 01:15:27,519
Speaker 3: in because he's there's it's kind of like the Ebron

1693
01:15:27,560 --> 01:15:29,920
Speaker 3: thing where it's it's there's still a huge gap between

1694
01:15:30,000 --> 01:15:34,120
Speaker 3: Ertz and and Burton, and Burton has just been very unreliable.

1695
01:15:34,320 --> 01:15:36,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Eagles.

1696
01:15:36,000 --> 01:15:39,000
Speaker 3: Also trying to cover the position for the most part

1697
01:15:39,439 --> 01:15:43,160
Speaker 3: relatively well. You know, they're number seven against m DVOA

1698
01:15:43,200 --> 01:15:46,519
Speaker 3: against tight ends this season. They've given up only forty

1699
01:15:46,520 --> 01:15:50,479
Speaker 3: four point four schedule adjusted yards. Obviously Chicago even better,

1700
01:15:50,600 --> 01:15:53,160
Speaker 3: number three and forty one point six schedule just yards.

1701
01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:54,839
Speaker 2: But I mean, you know, Ertz.

1702
01:15:54,720 --> 01:15:57,320
Speaker 3: Just has such a potential for high volume, and I

1703
01:15:57,320 --> 01:15:59,800
Speaker 3: mean it's not it's not out of the question that

1704
01:16:00,040 --> 01:16:02,960
Speaker 3: Earth's ends up being like the highest scoring player on

1705
01:16:03,040 --> 01:16:06,200
Speaker 3: the sleep for example, and you know Burton's that's a

1706
01:16:06,240 --> 01:16:10,000
Speaker 3: lot less a lot less likely. But I'm locking in ERTs.

1707
01:16:10,160 --> 01:16:12,040
Speaker 3: I'm not expecting great things. But again, you know, this

1708
01:16:12,120 --> 01:16:14,360
Speaker 3: is just this is the playoffs. They're they're good defenses

1709
01:16:14,400 --> 01:16:16,559
Speaker 3: of a round. So it's just a totally different kind

1710
01:16:16,560 --> 01:16:17,800
Speaker 3: of slate than we're used to.

1711
01:16:18,360 --> 01:16:21,080
Speaker 1: Okay, I think that was a marathon episode. I am

1712
01:16:21,120 --> 01:16:25,360
Speaker 1: apologizing in advanced the producer. Sorry about that, Matt Chris

1713
01:16:25,520 --> 01:16:26,760
Speaker 1: any final words.

1714
01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 2: Let's get this money.

1715
01:16:28,120 --> 01:16:29,960
Speaker 1: That is going to do it For the Friday episode

1716
01:16:30,120 --> 01:16:33,240
Speaker 1: of the Action Network NFL podcast. Be sure to rate, review,

1717
01:16:33,280 --> 01:16:36,519
Speaker 1: and subscribe for all of our upcoming episodes. For Chris Raybond,

1718
01:16:36,520 --> 01:16:45,599
Speaker 1: I'm Matthew Freeman, Matteth the Oracle. See you get next episode.