Speaker 1: Check it down, Man Down Thursday Morning, October seventy nine,
Speaker 1: teamed up beating the Book Podcast and Megapod Kill Alexander
Speaker 1: Week seven, National Football League. We'll try to dissect it.
Speaker 1: We'll try to break it down. We will try, most
Speaker 1: importantly to do better than we did last week, which
Speaker 1: was kind of horrific across the board. I'm gonna I'm
Speaker 1: gonna just say that upfront. We'll do better, and we
Speaker 1: have a new guest of course today. Obviously, not to
Speaker 1: blame Jeff Parls for anything. It wasn't his fault. It
Speaker 1: was mainly our faults, the main staples of the show.
Speaker 1: On my right, ladies and gentlemen. He is the number
Speaker 1: two man over there at UH. I won't call him
Speaker 1: the number two man. He's Derek Stephen's conciliary. He's the
Speaker 1: vice president of operations at Circuits Sports. Mike Palm, what
Speaker 1: was happening, Mike, good morning? Must be a very proud
Speaker 1: day for you, being an educational elitist with a very
Speaker 1: prestigious guess. Yes it is. I am an educational elitist.
Speaker 1: It's exactly. No one has ever called me that before,
Speaker 1: but it's accurate, and I own it. That's not accurate
Speaker 1: at all. Todd wishnev is here. He is claiming to
Speaker 1: be the opposite of an education elitist, but he's one two.
Speaker 1: What's happening, Todd? It's it's nice to be here and
Speaker 1: to show my PhD from South Alabama. Nice. By the way,
Speaker 1: did you see the South Alabama pick six last night?
Speaker 1: Did anybody see that? Anybody? Was one of the worst
Speaker 1: things I've ever seen in my life? What was he doing?
Speaker 1: The receiver was twenty yards downfield? What was that? Look?
Speaker 1: Sunbelt Football gonna watch? Yeah, well, I know, I can't
Speaker 1: wait to watch that video you posted where apparently you
Speaker 1: got into it with someone from the Sun Belt Conference
Speaker 1: from Alabama. That's on Todd's That's on Todd's Twitter at
Speaker 1: t wishnev Um all right, and our rotating guests, as
Speaker 1: Mike Palm has suggested, is a man with pedigree. He
Speaker 1: has a PhD from Stanford in a subject matter that
Speaker 1: I once upon a time used to describe on the podcast,
Speaker 1: but then I realized it took twenty to get through,
Speaker 1: so I stopped describing it. Maybe he'll do it for us,
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen from the power rank ed fang was
Speaker 1: happening ed now the much. Thank you so much for
Speaker 1: having me, And I would like to say, you know,
Speaker 1: like a Stanford PhD is like organic describing food. It's
Speaker 1: really nice to have the label, but it doesn't guarantee
Speaker 1: the quality inside. And we I got a lot of
Speaker 1: great stories about Stanford PhDs. Uh. My favorite was the
Speaker 1: one that was Larry Page's roommate at Stanford. He was
Speaker 1: working on his mechanical engineering PhD, and Larry offered, you know,
Speaker 1: he could have been what the fourth fifth employee at Google,
Speaker 1: but then uh, seven eight years later Google went public
Speaker 1: and this young man was still working on his PhD
Speaker 1: at Stanford. Yeah, because some things in life are worth
Speaker 1: more than money. Thank you. If you know what it's
Speaker 1: like to be in the tenth year of you, I
Speaker 1: mean it's pretty hard being in a six year of
Speaker 1: your PhD. He was a sad dude that day. I
Speaker 1: think any Trump something and I was I was trying
Speaker 1: to make a facetious joke. But you never told us
Speaker 1: what the discipline of your PhD was. So I did
Speaker 1: my PhD in chemical engineering and I studied um liquids
Speaker 1: and how molecules move around in liquids, and weirdly it
Speaker 1: turns out to be a perfect background to study sports
Speaker 1: because you said a lot of the same variants. And
Speaker 1: by the way, I bet you Ed would have tons
Speaker 1: to say about my quantum physics theories. Gil. Maybe on
Speaker 1: another podcast, Oh yeah, probably tall for hours. That would
Speaker 1: be fun. I don't know if it'd be fun it,
Speaker 1: but it'd be talking for hours, that's for sure. A
Speaker 1: quantic computing is gonna come and wreck all our theories
Speaker 1: on sports betting, so we why as we'll start talking
Speaker 1: about it now, by the way, I sold you short here,
Speaker 1: d So not only, of course the flagship is the
Speaker 1: power rank dot com, but you do a lot of
Speaker 1: different things. Now what else are you doing? Because I'm
Speaker 1: on your podcast with Jim Sands later in the day,
Speaker 1: So explain what everything that you do is. Yeah, Jim
Speaker 1: Sannas and I whole host covering Spread. It's a sports
Speaker 1: betting podcasts that we do for FanDuel UH and Number Fire.
Speaker 1: He's he's a senior editor over there at Number Fire.
Speaker 1: So we do that twice a week. Ones that take
Speaker 1: hated to college football, one to the NFL, and then
Speaker 1: I also have my own podcast, The Football Analytics show, uh,
Speaker 1: in which I talked to people about football analytics and
Speaker 1: it's not explicitly about betting, but we certainly don't shy
Speaker 1: away from that. Nice and football analytics spot is still
Speaker 1: going strong after all these years. Yeah it is. I
Speaker 1: think it's only year three or maybe four now, kind
Speaker 1: of all ones together, but uh, it's been a lot
Speaker 1: of fun in it. Uh. It makes me talk to
Speaker 1: people instead of just holding myself in my basement with
Speaker 1: my numbers all day. Okay, well, hopefully your Standford PhD
Speaker 1: will give us some winners here today before we before
Speaker 1: we get to best bets Mike Palm circa six weeks in,
Speaker 1: who's in the lead. What's this person's record? Uh, twenty
Speaker 1: three and a half points? Is there are two at
Speaker 1: twenty three and a half? Unlike the super contest that
Speaker 1: has a twenty seven and three jeez by like three
Speaker 1: and a half games in a quarter too. Gil. Remember
Speaker 1: we had fifty people go five and oh week one
Speaker 1: in October. We now have three people at ten and
Speaker 1: oh week three. You know, I was not only four
Speaker 1: and one like Todd was the first week of the quarterly.
Speaker 1: I got to five and one with that new England
Speaker 1: went on Thursday night, so I was feeling very good
Speaker 1: about myself. Um, and then my last four games on Sunday.
Speaker 1: Let me explain to you how they went. They went
Speaker 1: like this loss, loss weight, hold up for the rest,
Speaker 1: loss weight, one more loss, so I'm probably not in
Speaker 1: it anymore. Todd, did you did you do? Okay? On Sunday?
Speaker 1: I was sixteen and nine coming in. As you know,
Speaker 1: I went one and oh in London with the Carolina Panthers,
Speaker 1: and then I got Baker Mayfield Freddie Kitchen, and I
Speaker 1: also got Atlanta Falcons referee problems, and it was a
Speaker 1: ship storm of zero and four to move me to
Speaker 1: seventeen and thirteen. The dream is dead, and I'm thinking
Speaker 1: about going back to Stanford for a PhD. Okay, right,
Speaker 1: fair enough, fair enough, All right, let's do it. Let's
Speaker 1: start with best bets. As always, we start with our guests,
Speaker 1: Mr Fang, what is your first best bet of the week?
Speaker 1: Week seven? Yes, so the game I like most this
Speaker 1: week is Houston plus one at India. Game Gill usually
Speaker 1: on the the format of the show, as we talk
Speaker 1: about Thursday night before the best bet. You know, Todd
Speaker 1: is right about format things and on this he is right,
Speaker 1: So Ed, I apologize. Hold the best bet for a
Speaker 1: second Thursday night happens to be one of my best
Speaker 1: bets actually, ladies and gentlemen. So it's sort of a
Speaker 1: melding here. Kansas City at Denver tonight, two weeks ago,
Speaker 1: we're looking at a four and oh Kansas City Chiefs
Speaker 1: team and an oh and four Denver Broncos team. Two
Speaker 1: weeks is all it takes in the NFL. That just
Speaker 1: discombobulate everything that we think about these teams. The Chiefs
Speaker 1: are four and two, the Broncos are two and four.
Speaker 1: The Raiders, by the way in the mix in the
Speaker 1: a f C West as well, at three and two.
Speaker 1: This is at Denver. This opened higher than it is
Speaker 1: and it has come down this entire time. So we're
Speaker 1: at a field goal now. I even saw last night.
Speaker 1: I even saw minus three minus one oh one at
Speaker 1: one point. Now it's minus three plus one hundred. It
Speaker 1: is reduced juice. As we speak, I see the Christmas
Speaker 1: tree lighting up across the board. So I don't know
Speaker 1: if this will get below a three. I mean, I
Speaker 1: can't fathom that it would, but at least that's what
Speaker 1: it looks like now consensus. Listen, it was minus five
Speaker 1: and a half at open. How do you feel about this, Mike?
Speaker 1: Any play tonight because you can already sense where I'm going. Well,
Speaker 1: I made to habble a little bit on the under
Speaker 1: in this game, gil Um. If there's any offense that
Speaker 1: Kansas City can stop, it might be Joe Flacco and uh,
Speaker 1: and we've seen my homes hobbled Watkins. When Watkins is out,
Speaker 1: they're just not as explosive, you know. Uh, fan Jo's
Speaker 1: on a little run here with his defense having having
Speaker 1: held reverse to two fifty yards and then shutting out
Speaker 1: Mariota in Tennessee last week. So I might I might
Speaker 1: take a play on under. I might go first half
Speaker 1: under twenty four and a half. But not a real
Speaker 1: strong feeling on this game. All right, full game total,
Speaker 1: by the way, forty nine on this one, Todd Any
Speaker 1: thoughts tonight, gil Am, I marking you down as the
Speaker 1: best bet for this game. You will be momentarily okay,
Speaker 1: So thoughts about this game tonight? Uh, here's the thing this,
Speaker 1: you know, I know, Kansas City's all banged up, Mahomes
Speaker 1: his ankles messed up. There's you know, problems with wide receiver,
Speaker 1: offensive line, blah blah blah blah blah. The the thing
Speaker 1: that I would like to say is this Vic Fangio
Speaker 1: beat me every single week, whether I bet on him
Speaker 1: or against him. I'm going against this Fangio Fannie Pack
Speaker 1: jerk Uh. Here's the deal. If you want to beat
Speaker 1: Kansas City, you at least have to have a decent offense,
Speaker 1: because even if you're playing better on on on defense,
Speaker 1: they're still gonna get some points. So to me, this
Speaker 1: is not the time to be going against Kansas City.
Speaker 1: I like going against Kansas City when they're giving five, six, seven, eight, nine,
Speaker 1: ten points. You can get the backdoor covers where when
Speaker 1: this situation, you're asking Denver to really be competitive with them,
Speaker 1: and maybe they are, but they're gonna have to prove
Speaker 1: it to me. Just because you beat markets Mariota doesn't
Speaker 1: make me think your defense is fantastic. So if I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna bet this in my three top bets, but
Speaker 1: if I had to bet here, I do have a
Speaker 1: strong lean to Kansas City. Yeah, I'm I'm actually this
Speaker 1: is gonna be one of my best bets for the week.
Speaker 1: I really like Kansas City monus three. Um, when you
Speaker 1: start looking at this, uh, if you go if you
Speaker 1: look at a look ahead number, So basically what I
Speaker 1: would have made this in the preseason, it would have
Speaker 1: been Kansas City by almost five points. And I understand
Speaker 1: that bad things have happened to them over the last
Speaker 1: two weeks. I still think of the Indie game as
Speaker 1: kind of inexplicable. How um Indianapolis defense that was down
Speaker 1: Cup a couple of other top players was able to
Speaker 1: stop Kansas City. Obviously, you know the Mahomes injury and
Speaker 1: his ankle probably played a part in that, And and
Speaker 1: sure he's probably still a little bit banged up, but
Speaker 1: for all we know he's gonna play tonight, He's probably
Speaker 1: gonna look like the Pat Mahomes that we all know
Speaker 1: and love. And um, I just think, you know, Denver
Speaker 1: was a team coming into the season that we didn't
Speaker 1: really think that highly of. Um. Yes, their defense looks
Speaker 1: a little bit better, but I'm um so one of
Speaker 1: the things on defense and on offense, I look at
Speaker 1: success rate and I adjust for strength the schedule based
Speaker 1: on who they've played. Denver's defenses look pretty good. They
Speaker 1: look ninth in past defense and seventeen in rush defense.
Speaker 1: And in contrast, Kansas City is has really struggled. So
Speaker 1: the twenty two and past defense and and thirty ONEET
Speaker 1: and rush defense and and they couldn't do anything against
Speaker 1: Indie's offensive line. But still with all those things being said,
Speaker 1: it's it's Patrick Mahomes. Um, it's a division game. Perhaps
Speaker 1: they were looking forward to this game a little bit
Speaker 1: last week. Um, it's the national primetime game. I like
Speaker 1: Kansas City minus three. I am going to add on
Speaker 1: the best bet of the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs. Now,
Speaker 1: I know last week I said this about the Houston
Speaker 1: Texans line where the Chiefs were concerned, where I said,
Speaker 1: you know, down to four, that this was an overreaction
Speaker 1: over adjustment, and I thought the Chiefs were cheap. Then
Speaker 1: Chiefs went out to a seventeen to three lead. Uh
Speaker 1: and then at the end of the first half there
Speaker 1: was that sequence that really changed the game. Juan Thornhill
Speaker 1: picked off to Shaun Watson. Should have knocked it down.
Speaker 1: It was a fourth down play. Mahomes and the Chiefs
Speaker 1: uh Eddie redecided they were gonna try to matriculate the
Speaker 1: ball down the field from deep in their h from
Speaker 1: deep on their side. Mahomes was strip sacked with twenty
Speaker 1: seconds left in the half. Houston recovers, Watson waltz is
Speaker 1: into the end zone. On the very next play, Houston
Speaker 1: lad and they never looked back. Kansas City was held
Speaker 1: to three nine total yards. They gave up four seventy two. Yes,
Speaker 1: their defense is a sieve. Uh. And then there's Denver
Speaker 1: who held Tennessee to two a fourth teen on third downs.
Speaker 1: But by the way, Denver was also two for fourteen
Speaker 1: on third downs. Joe Flacco in that offense. Not scary anybody.
Speaker 1: They did help hold Tennessee to two four total yards
Speaker 1: thirty nine on the ground, they sacked both Mariota and
Speaker 1: Tannehill combine seven times three picks. But it's Mariana, it's Tannehill.
Speaker 1: They are not the Kansas City Chiefs. Snooze Flash. And
Speaker 1: I'm basically going to back up everything that everybody said,
Speaker 1: which is this is three points Kansas City. Like the
Speaker 1: the notion that two weeks ago we would tell ourselves, hey,
Speaker 1: by the way, in two weeks that Thursday night game,
Speaker 1: Kansas City is only gonna be a three point favorite.
Speaker 1: We might have responded, Oh did mahomes get hurt in
Speaker 1: the next two weeks, like we literally would have said
Speaker 1: that we there's no there would be no other explanation
Speaker 1: for this. It's Kansas City for me. And this is
Speaker 1: one of these bets that you have to be willing
Speaker 1: to lose, right Like, It's one of these where I'm like, look,
Speaker 1: it's Kansas City minus three. I'm betting it. If I lose,
Speaker 1: so be it tip of the cap to Vic Fangio
Speaker 1: and Denver, and then I'll never bet the Kansas City chiefs,
Speaker 1: you know, in this current form with his defense ever again,
Speaker 1: but one more shot at this on a Thursday night
Speaker 1: at Denver, just giving three, Thank you very much. I'll
Speaker 1: take that. So Kansas City a best pet for me too.
Speaker 1: So Ed and I have already given a best pet Todd,
Speaker 1: So mark those down. Okay, I'm marking down Gil and
Speaker 1: Ed at Kansas City minus three. Ed's already Ed has
Speaker 1: already given two best bets. He's also got the Texas
Speaker 1: plus one and do you like Texans plus one better?
Speaker 1: He already said it. He as totally bumbled the show
Speaker 1: because again, well we'll get to that, because he didn't
Speaker 1: give an explanation. Good one and I like I like
Speaker 1: Houston plus one better. Okay, well, now you're bumbling the
Speaker 1: show further, Mike, because you're going out of order. So,
Speaker 1: for goodness sake, he already gave the pick, if I know,
Speaker 1: but he didn't give the full explanation. So let's go
Speaker 1: around the horn for first picks, and then we'll get
Speaker 1: to Texans plus one from Ed as his number two pick,
Speaker 1: where he can give his full explanation for it. Yes, Todd,
Speaker 1: is that the way to do it. That is the
Speaker 1: way to do it. And I'm surprised with Mike's operational
Speaker 1: background that he doesn't get that. Vice president. First of all,
Speaker 1: he gave the pick, and then we went back to
Speaker 1: Thursday night. I have a question for Todd. Yes, yes,
Speaker 1: makes what makes Vic Fangio a jerk? He said, he's
Speaker 1: a jerk. You have a personal experience, Yes, I have.
Speaker 1: I have five personal experiences with him, three against him
Speaker 1: and two four him and and uh, you know, I'll
Speaker 1: be honest, if I went to lunch with him, I
Speaker 1: definitely wouldn't even consider picking up the check. Well, there
Speaker 1: was already a lane there, whether it was Fangio or
Speaker 1: any other human being on earth. That's right, Todd. Todd,
Speaker 1: I love you, I say it, I love talk. Don't
Speaker 1: get mad. Bil. Can you ask Mike to make a
Speaker 1: best bet? Because you know, I feel we've really dumbed
Speaker 1: it down. We have a stand for PhD on the line,
Speaker 1: I know, and I apologize, Mike. Uh, since you tried
Speaker 1: to further bumble the show. What is your first bet, Mike?
Speaker 1: First best bet? Um? I'm going to take the New
Speaker 1: York Giants minus three? Really? Uh? Yes, And if you'd
Speaker 1: have told me after two weeks that I'd ever have
Speaker 1: the Giants as the best bet, I would have probably
Speaker 1: said I've lost my mind. But I think this is
Speaker 1: a tough spot. A ten am Pacific start game, traveling
Speaker 1: across the country for Arizona, and the Giants look to
Speaker 1: have their full complement of their offense back, not only
Speaker 1: with Barkley but with the receiver in the tight end.
Speaker 1: I think this is a short price. I don't know
Speaker 1: that Arizona, with their awful defense, will score enough points
Speaker 1: to keep up with with with Daniel Jones, because I
Speaker 1: think the Giants can hang in the mid thirties on
Speaker 1: Arizona here. Uh, just so long as they don't get
Speaker 1: too far behind in this game, like Arizona did, so
Speaker 1: i'l a three with the Giants as my first best bet. Okay,
Speaker 1: by the way I was, I was saying really uh,
Speaker 1: not because I didn't like the pick, but because I'm
Speaker 1: surprised anybody gravitated towards this game. But your explanation, Ringstreet.
Speaker 1: By the way, I had been Fawkes from ESPN on
Speaker 1: a numbers game at Visa this morning. He also likes
Speaker 1: the Giants. Arizona did for all of their UH one
Speaker 1: point win against the Falcons last week. They did have
Speaker 1: a bunch of lucky breaks, not lucky, but things went
Speaker 1: their way. Damian Bird looked like he might have fumbled
Speaker 1: after a fifty eight yard catch call was upheld after review.
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray ran for a first down on the game's
Speaker 1: final drive on a play that was close to being
Speaker 1: short of the marker, but that review was also confirmed.
Speaker 1: And then Todd you wanted to say something about like
Speaker 1: we we all talked about horrible calls, and certainly Monday
Speaker 1: night football was on full display Detroit and Green Bay,
Speaker 1: but Youth claimed that Arizona was the beneficiary of the
Speaker 1: worst call you've ever seen this season. The kick catch interference.
Speaker 1: You know, Falcons down, get back to seven, all are
Speaker 1: punting the ball because of course, you know, the Falcons
Speaker 1: can't continue and take the lead, but they have to
Speaker 1: bed and punt the ball. They punt the ball up
Speaker 1: in the air pretty high, So there's it's one of
Speaker 1: those deals where there's like a whole bunch of guys
Speaker 1: coming back toward the returner and the off quite frankly,
Speaker 1: the receiving team blockers were closer to the guy making
Speaker 1: the fair catch than the other guys, and it hit
Speaker 1: this leg and of course bounces away. Falcons get the ball,
Speaker 1: but they call kick catch interference. In what I will
Speaker 1: contend is definitely in the top three of the worst
Speaker 1: NFL calls we've seen this year. And uh, you know
Speaker 1: w W E style. Of course, Atlanta loses, Okay, So
Speaker 1: add that all those things, Todd's call them the two
Speaker 1: that I just mentioned. Arizona had everything break there. We're
Speaker 1: including a miss extra point right for Matt Bryant to
Speaker 1: win it. So add those in the Giants column as well.
Speaker 1: That even Arizona and Victory had everything break their way
Speaker 1: last week against the Falcons. Todd, your first best bet, sir,
Speaker 1: my best bet is the Jacksonville Jaguars minus three and
Speaker 1: a half. I think the Cincinnati Bengals are not a
Speaker 1: team that you want to take as a dog, as
Speaker 1: a short dog. I think you want that team when
Speaker 1: they're getting eleven, twelve, f teen points and can get
Speaker 1: back to our covers. I don't think you want them
Speaker 1: when they're only getting three and a half, albeit at home.
Speaker 1: I think the Jags are a pretty good defensive football team,
Speaker 1: and couple out with the Cincinnati horrible defense, I think
Speaker 1: the Jags will be able to get out past the
Speaker 1: three and a half. You know this for me, by
Speaker 1: the way, was the biggest difference between my guessing lines
Speaker 1: guests and the actual line. I thought Jacksonville would be
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites, and as you said,
Speaker 1: they are only three and a half point favorite. So
Speaker 1: Jacksonville your number one best bet. Alright, best bet number two.
Speaker 1: I know some people here are upset that you uh
Speaker 1: that I went out of order, I should say, and
Speaker 1: that you tipped off your second best bet bet. But
Speaker 1: please so that everybody's happy. Texans plus one that's your
Speaker 1: second best bet. That's right. You'll remember you were on
Speaker 1: the show, so you get to do whatever you want.
Speaker 1: But I and I indeed I like Houston plus one.
Speaker 1: I really think this line is an overreaction to what
Speaker 1: happened two weeks ago when Indianapolis Kansas City nineteen to thirteen.
Speaker 1: It was really an inexplicable game. UH, India's defense is
Speaker 1: not particularly good, and then they had three starters that
Speaker 1: did not play for the majority of that game, and
Speaker 1: yet they still got the win against Pat Mahomes. Of course,
Speaker 1: there were other situations going on there as well, because
Speaker 1: Mahomes got his ankle tweaked and it hasn't looked like
Speaker 1: the normal Pat Mahomes since then. However, India hasn't played
Speaker 1: since then, and I just don't think that lightning strikes
Speaker 1: twice again for this defense. They're still dealing with the injuries.
Speaker 1: Safety MALIEK. Cooker is out UH Darris Leondard the linebacker
Speaker 1: and Clayton Gethers, the safety are both listed as questionable
Speaker 1: with concussions. And you know, even with their good performance
Speaker 1: against Kansas City, the Colts don't look good on defense
Speaker 1: by my numbers. So when I look at adjusticed success rate,
Speaker 1: the Cults are sixteenth against the pass against the run.
Speaker 1: Now on offense, The Colts offense is essentially what you
Speaker 1: would expect without Andrew Luck, but a great offensive line
Speaker 1: there in passing, but best in the NFL and running
Speaker 1: the ball. So they'll try to run the ball against Houston.
Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna go particularly well. Uh Houston's
Speaker 1: run defense is good, ranked tenth in the NFL by
Speaker 1: my adjustice success. Right, that's significantly better than what they
Speaker 1: faced against Kansas City. I've also been looking at Pro
Speaker 1: Football Focus and their player grades to help my analysis
Speaker 1: of games this year. One thing that's jumped out to
Speaker 1: me with Houston is that defensive tackle DJ Reader has
Speaker 1: a grade of ninety and run defense and that's out
Speaker 1: of a hundred. So overall, my numbers actually like Houston
Speaker 1: to win this game. Outright, I will go with Houston
Speaker 1: plus one at Indy Houston plus one at Indie Houston.
Speaker 1: Last week against the Chiefs, I realized it was the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: but still thirty nine minutes and forty eight seconds of
Speaker 1: possession nineteen twelve, just nineteen twelve for the Chiefs outgame
Speaker 1: him on the ground one fifty three four seventy two
Speaker 1: to three o nine in total yards ten penalties. Yes,
Speaker 1: for the Texans, that's been a league wide problem for
Speaker 1: seventy yards. The to clean that up. But DeShawn Jackson
Speaker 1: thirty or forty two for two eighty one touchdown, two picks.
Speaker 1: Again the Colts defense, not the Chief's defense, but um
Speaker 1: certainly the game they wanted from their offense last week.
Speaker 1: We'll see if we can if the Texans can carry
Speaker 1: it over into this week. Gotta keep DeShawn Watson up right,
Speaker 1: That really is if you do the box score review
Speaker 1: on these games for the Texans, it often can be
Speaker 1: distilled to that one point is Deshaun Watson getting sacked
Speaker 1: left and right, meaning four times or more, which happened
Speaker 1: eight games in a row at one point, uh than
Speaker 1: a couple of games later. He got sacked six times
Speaker 1: earlier this year. But when they keep him clean, which
Speaker 1: they did last week, m VP candidate Deshaun Watson for sure.
Speaker 1: So you're taking Houston plus one Indianapolis on the extra rest, Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 1: I just want to jump in real quick about Watson
Speaker 1: and sacks. So one of the interesting things that I've
Speaker 1: come across is the work that Eric Pro Football Focus
Speaker 1: has done about just how much control quarterbacks have over
Speaker 1: their sack rates. Uh, it's more than you think. We
Speaker 1: tend to think about it as the offensive line giving
Speaker 1: him protection, but often it's the quarterback in his decision
Speaker 1: making and whether he gets the ball out quickly and
Speaker 1: whether he invites sex. And Deshahn Watson is is someone
Speaker 1: that does invite sex sometimes by pulling the ball down
Speaker 1: and scrambling around. Russell Wilson is definitely another one in
Speaker 1: that camp too, So I think the sack rate is
Speaker 1: an important stat. As you mentioned Gil, it's not just
Speaker 1: on the line. I think it's also on Watson as well.
Speaker 1: Mike Palm, by the way, who we have lost and
Speaker 1: had to go run and do stuff. So we apologize
Speaker 1: for that technical difficulties and we can't get him back
Speaker 1: because he's got time constraints. He likes the under in
Speaker 1: this game, and by correcting that, and if we recall
Speaker 1: that correctly likes the Underha, he does like the under. Okay,
Speaker 1: he likes the under. And the number on the under
Speaker 1: here in this game is forty seven. So Palm is
Speaker 1: on the under Houston at Indianapolis. That's his second best bet. Todd,
Speaker 1: what's best bet number two for you, sir? Best bed
Speaker 1: Number two was the Miami doll Miami do Miami Dolphins
Speaker 1: number one plus seventeen points. We talked about this on
Speaker 1: a numbers game on Wednesday on Gil's show. I think
Speaker 1: the difference between Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick is vast. Now.
Speaker 1: I do realize Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a dumpster fire
Speaker 1: and throw four interceptions, but he can also be in
Speaker 1: a competent quarterback at times, so I'm hoping for the
Speaker 1: latter this week. I just don't see how a defensive
Speaker 1: football team like the Bills should be favored by seventeen
Speaker 1: points pretty much against anybody. And if Ryan Fitzpatrick can
Speaker 1: be somewhat adequate, get the Dolphins seven points seven and
Speaker 1: you cover. So I'll take the Miami Dolphins plus the seventeen.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, man, I am with you. I do
Speaker 1: not understand how we live in a world where the
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills are seventeen point favorites over a Ryan Fitzpatrick
Speaker 1: led Miami Dolphins team. And again with all of and
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick's foibles, this isn't Josh Rosen. We should not live
Speaker 1: in this world where Buffalo is the seventeen boy favorite.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you there. By the way, this just
Speaker 1: in is Dwayne Haskins starting for the Redskins. My god,
Speaker 1: oh my goodness, well taking first team reps. Anyway, I
Speaker 1: am all about the Niners on my number two best bet.
Speaker 1: Whether it was case Keenum or Dwight Haskins, I'd be
Speaker 1: on the Niners. Not only will the place be overrun
Speaker 1: by Niners fans a little more than fifty Niners fans,
Speaker 1: I would say coast to coast here. But the Redskins
Speaker 1: were two or fourteen on third downs against the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: They could barely hold on to the lead at the end.
Speaker 1: The Niners against the Rams were awesome. I had the
Speaker 1: Niners in game in that game at minus six and
Speaker 1: a half. They were up twenty to seven for a
Speaker 1: huge portion a huge portion of the second half, and
Speaker 1: I never had any doubt. Even if doubt crept in.
Speaker 1: The Niners kept turning the Rams away, kept turning away,
Speaker 1: and Jimmy Garraw below uh fumble the ball. The Rams
Speaker 1: returned into the San Francisco thirty six with eight forty
Speaker 1: two play. The Rams promptly turned it over on downs
Speaker 1: and Kyle Shanahan had this to say after that I
Speaker 1: had a feeling that if we just don't turn it over,
Speaker 1: we'll win this game. I haven't had that feeling very
Speaker 1: much in my career, and the defense definitely gave it
Speaker 1: to me the whole game. That is huge. I am considering.
Speaker 1: Mike Palm and I already have the Niners to win
Speaker 1: the NFC West. I have it at plus three Mike
Speaker 1: at plus three seventy. I'm considering adding NFC futures with
Speaker 1: the Niners, Super Bowl futures with the Niners they didn't have.
Speaker 1: By the way, they're starting offensive tackles Mike mcglinsey and
Speaker 1: Joe Staley in that game against the Rams. Uh yeah.
Speaker 1: The Redskins ap Adrian Peterson double his yards on the ground.
Speaker 1: That's not gonna matter against the Niners defense. They're flying
Speaker 1: all over the field. They're stout against the run, They're
Speaker 1: really good against the past. I don't know how the
Speaker 1: reds can score against this team. I don't know how
Speaker 1: they stopped Jimmy Garoppolo and crew. Give me the Niners
Speaker 1: minus nine and a half my second pick. You know,
Speaker 1: I I liked your second pick before. Now I love
Speaker 1: your second pick because I think d Wayne Haskins is overmatched,
Speaker 1: and at least with case Keenum, you know, he's a
Speaker 1: below average quarterback, but he's still in NFL quarterback somewhat.
Speaker 1: But Haskins, I think is just fully overmatched. So I
Speaker 1: I love what you're talking about here, Niners. Well we'll
Speaker 1: see what Bill Callahan ultimately decides to do, because he
Speaker 1: announced case Keenum earlier in the week, But we shall see.
Speaker 1: Give me a favorite, Todd, give me your number three pick.
Speaker 1: And before you even do that, give me what Mike
Speaker 1: palms number three pick, because, as I mentioned earlier, we
Speaker 1: lost him. You got his first two. We do have
Speaker 1: his first two. Okay. His third pick was the Minnesota
Speaker 1: Vikings minus two on the road at Detroit. He believes
Speaker 1: that Dalvin Cook should be able to run the ball
Speaker 1: against Detroit. I think that was the main um. The
Speaker 1: main thrust of his Minnesota argument was that Minnesota would
Speaker 1: be able to run the ball on the road at
Speaker 1: Detroit and be able to come away with their good
Speaker 1: defense at lines two. Okay, what's your third pick? My
Speaker 1: third pick is the Baltimore Ravens at the Seahattle Seahawks
Speaker 1: over the forty nine. The Baltimore Ravens defense is a
Speaker 1: dumpster fire. This is not your father's Ray Lewis defense.
Speaker 1: This is not your father's Ed Reid defense. This is
Speaker 1: not a good defense on I think Baltimore will give
Speaker 1: up points to Russell Wilson uh and I think they
Speaker 1: can score as well. Seattle's defense hasn't really impressed me either.
Speaker 1: Both of those these teams have been playing games in
Speaker 1: the high twenties. I think there's no reason to think
Speaker 1: that both teams can't get into the high twenties again
Speaker 1: over the forty nine. Let's go points. By the way,
Speaker 1: no number three pick is the same as your number
Speaker 1: two pick. I'm on the Dolphins again. You're giving me
Speaker 1: seventeen with Ryan Fitzpatrick despite the interception rate. He is
Speaker 1: a feaster famine guy. Miami plus the seventeen on principle
Speaker 1: to take Miami without doing the song No, I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna sing that. I'm sorry. Could you sing it one
Speaker 1: more time for us Miami Dolphins? Fuck you would? Yeah?
Speaker 1: For me, it's it's Miami and again, much like the
Speaker 1: previous two picks for me, both the Niners and prior
Speaker 1: to that, my first pig being the Chiefs. One of
Speaker 1: these picks that you have to be willing to lose
Speaker 1: in all of these cases. You can beat me in
Speaker 1: either of these cases. Broncos, you can beat the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: Redskins you can uh cover against the Niners, and in
Speaker 1: this particular case right here, Bills, you can cover against
Speaker 1: the Dolphins tip of the cap. But I'll take the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: the Niners, and Dolphins very very confidently in each case.
Speaker 1: Best bet number three, Mr Fang, what do you got? Absolutely? Yeah.
Speaker 1: My My third best bet is the Charges plus two
Speaker 1: at Tennessee. And Tennessee's offense has just been a complete
Speaker 1: disaster this year when I look at adjusted success rate
Speaker 1: their three and pass offense. This has led to the
Speaker 1: benching of Marcus Mariota and Ryan tanny Hill is gonna
Speaker 1: start the scheme. Tanny Hill is pretty interesting. In the
Speaker 1: years before last year, he had past grades of seventy
Speaker 1: ish or above. Last year he dropped forty five. So
Speaker 1: that doesn't give me a lot of hope that he's
Speaker 1: going to come in and be much better than Mariotta,
Speaker 1: especially since Mariota certainly hasn't been good. The interesting thing
Speaker 1: about this game is that when we only look at
Speaker 1: the small sample size of this year's numbers. So what
Speaker 1: I'll do is I'll take stats like margin victory, success
Speaker 1: rate yards for past attempts, and I'll just look at
Speaker 1: what teams have done through this season. Tennessee is actually
Speaker 1: favored by four um when you just look at that component,
Speaker 1: there's a couple of factors involved. Tennessee's defense has been terrific.
Speaker 1: They were in eighth and past defense and second and
Speaker 1: run defense. When I look at my adjusted sack rate,
Speaker 1: the Charges have struggled the past defense, and they haven't
Speaker 1: had Derwin James all season, and they've had some other
Speaker 1: second injuries in the second area as well. But when
Speaker 1: you factor in, there's other things that go into my
Speaker 1: model as well, and those factors favored the Charge is
Speaker 1: out right. You have to remember they have Philip Rivers,
Speaker 1: Who's going to be the best quarterback on that football
Speaker 1: field on Sunday. So I like the Charges plus two
Speaker 1: at Tennessee. How about Melvin Gordon having the nerve to
Speaker 1: ask for more carries. He like destroys Austin Nekeler's game,
Speaker 1: all his touches the Chargers entire season. Perhaps by doing so,
Speaker 1: now he wants more carries. That's his solution. This is
Speaker 1: what happens when good Midwest boys go out to the
Speaker 1: sunny beaches of Los Angeles. Yeah, I don't think that's
Speaker 1: gonna end well for him. Alright, Ed, we start with
Speaker 1: you two teams six point teaser of the week. What
Speaker 1: you're looking at? Yeah, I mean I didn't really know
Speaker 1: much about teasers until I had Preston Johnson on my
Speaker 1: podcast a couple of weeks ago, and he told me
Speaker 1: about some of the underlying data on teasers, and it
Speaker 1: says essentially that you you want to take um, you
Speaker 1: want to tease through the key numbers of three and
Speaker 1: potentially seven. When you do this, you can show, based
Speaker 1: on data over a lot NFL games that these tend
Speaker 1: to be profitable and of all the things that you
Speaker 1: can do with teasers, And I think that fits in
Speaker 1: perfectly with two of the games I like Charges plus
Speaker 1: two Tennessee and the Texans plus one at Indie. I'm
Speaker 1: want to tease those through that key important number of
Speaker 1: three and and that's my teaser for the week. So
Speaker 1: we'll get Chargers what plus eight, and then we'll get
Speaker 1: Houston plus seven Sport for today's Beating the Book podcast
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Speaker 1: Don't miss out, all right, gentlemen, Final two questions, the
Speaker 1: first of which which of the big favorites is the
Speaker 1: most likely in your opinion to lose outright, only three qualify.
Speaker 1: I think I know what everybody's gonna come up with.
Speaker 1: The only three candidates Buffalo seventeen point favorites at home
Speaker 1: against Miama San Francisco nine and a half point favorites
Speaker 1: on the road at Washington and New England nine and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites on the road at the New
Speaker 1: York Jets on Monday night. What you got it? And
Speaker 1: I should not include green Bay favorite by five five
Speaker 1: and a half over Oakland in this right, you should
Speaker 1: not because everyone's gonna take I mean, you're really gonna
Speaker 1: take Green Bay because you're getting four points paired to
Speaker 1: the next highest game you Yeah, I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: New England. I mean yeah. I think it's more of
Speaker 1: a call that I trust the Jets more than I
Speaker 1: trust either Miami or Washington. Just brought back Sam Donald
Speaker 1: last week, look pretty good and getting the upset win
Speaker 1: over Dallas. I don't think they're gonna play at that
Speaker 1: level every week, but I think this is a team
Speaker 1: that's that's gonna have potential when they when they have
Speaker 1: something besides the statue playing quarterback for them. New England
Speaker 1: obviously looked great. They're a key Super Bowl contender. Uh,
Speaker 1: there's not much bad you can say about Belichick. Uh.
Speaker 1: We do need to remember that Tom Brady still is
Speaker 1: forty two years old. I know a little bit about
Speaker 1: being that age. It's not as good as earlier in
Speaker 1: your life when you're playing the game of football or
Speaker 1: any other sports. So not that I really expect this
Speaker 1: to happen, but if I have to pick one of
Speaker 1: those three, I'm gonna go with New England to get
Speaker 1: the big favorite to get upset outright. Actually, y'all wanted
Speaker 1: to bring up something about your watching Redskins that I
Speaker 1: thought was interesting. Please with with Dwayne Haskins. I was
Speaker 1: talking to Eric Eager and he has access to all
Speaker 1: these grades over at Pro Football Focus, and it was
Speaker 1: interesting that he said that Haskins didn't grade out that
Speaker 1: well last year at Ohio State, which seems a little
Speaker 1: preposterous because their offense was particularly explosive, set all the
Speaker 1: big time passing records, but the analysis was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: he didn't really have to make that many hard throws,
Speaker 1: so a lot of it was short stuff, wheel routes,
Speaker 1: crossing routes, which every Michigan fan will remember from last year.
Speaker 1: Uh didn't really have to make deep intermediate deep throws.
Speaker 1: Um so didn't great out particularly well. And you know,
Speaker 1: I mean he doesn't looked good in the limited action
Speaker 1: that he's seen this year. So just something I thought
Speaker 1: that was interesting. Not necessarily heartwarming for a skin guy
Speaker 1: like yourself, but such joy you bring it. That's what
Speaker 1: I'm here to do with you. I guess if I
Speaker 1: have to choose from those three, I'll take New England.
Speaker 1: But I don't like it, Okay, but I knew you're
Speaker 1: gonna pick that. And finally, and finally, that the game
Speaker 1: you want no part of. If we live in a
Speaker 1: bizarro world, you have to pick a side in each
Speaker 1: and every one of these games, but you didn't have
Speaker 1: to bet one of them, which would it be? It? Yeah,
Speaker 1: the game I want no part of is the Miami
Speaker 1: Dolphins game. And I want to know part of this
Speaker 1: team since week one. And I'm a guy who tries
Speaker 1: to model the outcome of games, and I think it's
Speaker 1: very important when you do that to understand the limitations
Speaker 1: of your model. And I think the Miami is a
Speaker 1: very difficult team to model this year. You have no
Speaker 1: ideas about motivations, and I think we can sit here
Speaker 1: and argue all you want about whether they're tanking, what
Speaker 1: their motivation is. I personally think the players have a
Speaker 1: lot of motivation to play because they're still relying on
Speaker 1: this as their job and as their source of income.
Speaker 1: But that doesn't really seem to be the case. Sometimes
Speaker 1: with this team, you have to know the limitations of
Speaker 1: what you can do and what you can understand. So
Speaker 1: for that, and since I'm a math guy, I'm going
Speaker 1: to stay away from the Miami Dolphins. You know, it's
Speaker 1: the NFL, so there's a lot of games I don't
Speaker 1: really want any part of. I guess the best one
Speaker 1: I would probably go with is m just give me
Speaker 1: a second here to anytime, and don't worry about you.
Speaker 1: I would not like the surprise you or anything, but
Speaker 1: go ahead. It did surprise me because I was busy
Speaker 1: with a lot of other stuff. I'm sorry. I got
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. How in the world do
Speaker 1: you know what's gonna happen in this ballgame? The Dallas
Speaker 1: Cowgirls can look great against crappy teams, look horrible against
Speaker 1: good teams. The Philadelphia Eagles can lose to the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 1: I don't know what what's gonna happen here. Give me
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Dallas for the stay away. Okay? For me, New
Speaker 1: England was the pick for the big favorite most likely
Speaker 1: to lose that right division game on the road. I
Speaker 1: don't think New England's looked all that great even though
Speaker 1: they're undefeated, so that would be the obvious pick there.
Speaker 1: I think that's unanimous, and for me, the game I
Speaker 1: want no part of. For me, it's Arizona and the Giants.
Speaker 1: I hear all the reasoning with the Giants, but I
Speaker 1: just don't trust them at all. By the way, the
Speaker 1: other one for me would actually be Chargers Titans. That
Speaker 1: actually might trump Arizona and the Giants for me. Did
Speaker 1: Mike Palm have a pick for teaser for big Favorite
Speaker 1: and four game he wants no part of? Well, he
Speaker 1: said Packers on the favorite, but you've already nixed that,
Speaker 1: so he doesn't have any on that. No part of
Speaker 1: the Rams Falcons. He doesn't know what he's gonna get
Speaker 1: with the Rams and Falcons. His teaser was the New
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints, like we both had bad sign that all
Speaker 1: three of us like New Orleans is one leg of
Speaker 1: our parley. And then he went with the Miami Dohens
Speaker 1: plus the twenty three points. He agreed with the Fitzpatrick,
Speaker 1: reasoning he thinks Fitzpatrick can hang him in the game.
Speaker 1: Plus the twenty three and New Orleans plus then nine
Speaker 1: and a half. Gentlemen, we've done all we can do.
Speaker 1: From the power rank ed Fank, thank you, Thank you
Speaker 1: so much, Gil. What was a pleasure for Mike Palm
Speaker 1: and Todd wish and have good luck with all your
Speaker 1: Week seven bets in the National Football Ly, thank you
Speaker 1: so much for Lusty