WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 NFL MegaPod Week 7 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:13.120 Check it down, Man Down Thursday Morning, October seventy nine, 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:16.600 teamed up beating the Book Podcast and Megapod Kill Alexander 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:20.520 Week seven, National Football League. We'll try to dissect it. 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:22.479 We'll try to break it down. We will try, most 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.919 importantly to do better than we did last week, which 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.680 was kind of horrific across the board. I'm gonna I'm 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:31.520 gonna just say that upfront. We'll do better, and we 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:34.000 have a new guest of course today. Obviously, not to 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:36.000 blame Jeff Parls for anything. It wasn't his fault. It 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:38.240 was mainly our faults, the main staples of the show. 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:41.240 On my right, ladies and gentlemen. He is the number 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:43.839 two man over there at UH. I won't call him 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:46.680 the number two man. He's Derek Stephen's conciliary. He's the 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.720 vice president of operations at Circuits Sports. Mike Palm, what 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:53.560 was happening, Mike, good morning? Must be a very proud 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:57.120 day for you, being an educational elitist with a very 0:00:57.120 --> 0:01:02.360 prestigious guess. Yes it is. I am an educational elitist. 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:04.440 It's exactly. No one has ever called me that before, 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.880 but it's accurate, and I own it. That's not accurate 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:09.800 at all. Todd wishnev is here. He is claiming to 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:12.480 be the opposite of an education elitist, but he's one two. 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.479 What's happening, Todd? It's it's nice to be here and 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:19.560 to show my PhD from South Alabama. Nice. By the way, 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:21.959 did you see the South Alabama pick six last night? 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:25.480 Did anybody see that? Anybody? Was one of the worst 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.520 things I've ever seen in my life? What was he doing? 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:31.319 The receiver was twenty yards downfield? What was that? Look? 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:36.240 Sunbelt Football gonna watch? Yeah, well, I know, I can't 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:38.520 wait to watch that video you posted where apparently you 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:40.960 got into it with someone from the Sun Belt Conference 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:44.440 from Alabama. That's on Todd's That's on Todd's Twitter at 0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:47.400 t wishnev Um all right, and our rotating guests, as 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:51.400 Mike Palm has suggested, is a man with pedigree. He 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:54.600 has a PhD from Stanford in a subject matter that 0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:58.120 I once upon a time used to describe on the podcast, 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:00.640 but then I realized it took twenty to get through, 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:02.720 so I stopped describing it. Maybe he'll do it for us, 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:05.360 ladies and gentlemen from the power rank ed fang was 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:07.720 happening ed now the much. Thank you so much for 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:09.240 having me, And I would like to say, you know, 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:13.880 like a Stanford PhD is like organic describing food. It's 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:16.239 really nice to have the label, but it doesn't guarantee 0:02:16.280 --> 0:02:19.480 the quality inside. And we I got a lot of 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:23.040 great stories about Stanford PhDs. Uh. My favorite was the 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:27.200 one that was Larry Page's roommate at Stanford. He was 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:30.800 working on his mechanical engineering PhD, and Larry offered, you know, 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:35.239 he could have been what the fourth fifth employee at Google, 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:40.360 but then uh, seven eight years later Google went public 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.640 and this young man was still working on his PhD 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:48.400 at Stanford. Yeah, because some things in life are worth 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:53.560 more than money. Thank you. If you know what it's 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:55.200 like to be in the tenth year of you, I 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:57.079 mean it's pretty hard being in a six year of 0:02:57.120 --> 0:02:59.640 your PhD. He was a sad dude that day. I 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:03.239 think any Trump something and I was I was trying 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:05.280 to make a facetious joke. But you never told us 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:08.720 what the discipline of your PhD was. So I did 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:13.600 my PhD in chemical engineering and I studied um liquids 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:17.400 and how molecules move around in liquids, and weirdly it 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:20.080 turns out to be a perfect background to study sports 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:22.600 because you said a lot of the same variants. And 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:25.280 by the way, I bet you Ed would have tons 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:28.080 to say about my quantum physics theories. Gil. Maybe on 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:32.000 another podcast, Oh yeah, probably tall for hours. That would 0:03:32.040 --> 0:03:34.120 be fun. I don't know if it'd be fun it, 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:40.360 but it'd be talking for hours, that's for sure. A 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:43.000 quantic computing is gonna come and wreck all our theories 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:45.480 on sports betting, so we why as we'll start talking 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:47.240 about it now, by the way, I sold you short here, 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:49.280 d So not only, of course the flagship is the 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:52.000 power rank dot com, but you do a lot of 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:53.880 different things. Now what else are you doing? Because I'm 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:56.240 on your podcast with Jim Sands later in the day, 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:58.400 So explain what everything that you do is. Yeah, Jim 0:03:58.400 --> 0:04:01.120 Sannas and I whole host covering Spread. It's a sports 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:04.880 betting podcasts that we do for FanDuel UH and Number Fire. 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:07.360 He's he's a senior editor over there at Number Fire. 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.760 So we do that twice a week. Ones that take 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:12.440 hated to college football, one to the NFL, and then 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:15.720 I also have my own podcast, The Football Analytics show, uh, 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.840 in which I talked to people about football analytics and 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:21.520 it's not explicitly about betting, but we certainly don't shy 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:24.120 away from that. Nice and football analytics spot is still 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:26.440 going strong after all these years. Yeah it is. I 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:29.279 think it's only year three or maybe four now, kind 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:31.880 of all ones together, but uh, it's been a lot 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:33.760 of fun in it. Uh. It makes me talk to 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.960 people instead of just holding myself in my basement with 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:40.880 my numbers all day. Okay, well, hopefully your Standford PhD 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:43.640 will give us some winners here today before we before 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:47.479 we get to best bets Mike Palm circa six weeks in, 0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:51.400 who's in the lead. What's this person's record? Uh, twenty 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:53.839 three and a half points? Is there are two at 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:58.240 twenty three and a half? Unlike the super contest that 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:01.599 has a twenty seven and three jeez by like three 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:05.720 and a half games in a quarter too. Gil. Remember 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:08.360 we had fifty people go five and oh week one 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:13.760 in October. We now have three people at ten and 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:18.159 oh week three. You know, I was not only four 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.400 and one like Todd was the first week of the quarterly. 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:22.520 I got to five and one with that new England 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:24.800 went on Thursday night, so I was feeling very good 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:28.320 about myself. Um, and then my last four games on Sunday. 0:05:28.520 --> 0:05:30.360 Let me explain to you how they went. They went 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:33.839 like this loss, loss weight, hold up for the rest, 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:38.640 loss weight, one more loss, so I'm probably not in 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:42.160 it anymore. Todd, did you did you do? Okay? On Sunday? 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:44.800 I was sixteen and nine coming in. As you know, 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.960 I went one and oh in London with the Carolina Panthers, 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:53.159 and then I got Baker Mayfield Freddie Kitchen, and I 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:57.560 also got Atlanta Falcons referee problems, and it was a 0:05:57.600 --> 0:06:00.680 ship storm of zero and four to move me to 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:04.080 seventeen and thirteen. The dream is dead, and I'm thinking 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:07.240 about going back to Stanford for a PhD. Okay, right, 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:10.640 fair enough, fair enough, All right, let's do it. Let's 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:13.360 start with best bets. As always, we start with our guests, 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:16.080 Mr Fang, what is your first best bet of the week? 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:19.120 Week seven? Yes, so the game I like most this 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:23.640 week is Houston plus one at India. Game Gill usually 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:26.240 on the the format of the show, as we talk 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:29.560 about Thursday night before the best bet. You know, Todd 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:33.280 is right about format things and on this he is right, 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:36.279 So Ed, I apologize. Hold the best bet for a 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:39.760 second Thursday night happens to be one of my best 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:41.719 bets actually, ladies and gentlemen. So it's sort of a 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:45.599 melding here. Kansas City at Denver tonight, two weeks ago, 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:48.599 we're looking at a four and oh Kansas City Chiefs 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:51.800 team and an oh and four Denver Broncos team. Two 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:53.600 weeks is all it takes in the NFL. That just 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:57.400 discombobulate everything that we think about these teams. The Chiefs 0:06:57.400 --> 0:06:59.320 are four and two, the Broncos are two and four. 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:00.960 The Raiders, by the way in the mix in the 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:03.160 a f C West as well, at three and two. 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:06.240 This is at Denver. This opened higher than it is 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:10.360 and it has come down this entire time. So we're 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:12.560 at a field goal now. I even saw last night. 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.000 I even saw minus three minus one oh one at 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.840 one point. Now it's minus three plus one hundred. It 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.800 is reduced juice. As we speak, I see the Christmas 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:23.320 tree lighting up across the board. So I don't know 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:25.120 if this will get below a three. I mean, I 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:27.160 can't fathom that it would, but at least that's what 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:29.960 it looks like now consensus. Listen, it was minus five 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.640 and a half at open. How do you feel about this, Mike? 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:35.720 Any play tonight because you can already sense where I'm going. Well, 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:38.400 I made to habble a little bit on the under 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:42.240 in this game, gil Um. If there's any offense that 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:46.520 Kansas City can stop, it might be Joe Flacco and uh, 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:52.360 and we've seen my homes hobbled Watkins. When Watkins is out, 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:56.160 they're just not as explosive, you know. Uh, fan Jo's 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:59.720 on a little run here with his defense having having 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.680 held reverse to two fifty yards and then shutting out 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.880 Mariota in Tennessee last week. So I might I might 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.000 take a play on under. I might go first half 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:11.400 under twenty four and a half. But not a real 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:13.960 strong feeling on this game. All right, full game total, 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:16.960 by the way, forty nine on this one, Todd Any 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:18.960 thoughts tonight, gil Am, I marking you down as the 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:22.280 best bet for this game. You will be momentarily okay, 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:26.400 So thoughts about this game tonight? Uh, here's the thing this, 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:28.960 you know, I know, Kansas City's all banged up, Mahomes 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:31.720 his ankles messed up. There's you know, problems with wide receiver, 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:37.320 offensive line, blah blah blah blah blah. The the thing 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.479 that I would like to say is this Vic Fangio 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:42.760 beat me every single week, whether I bet on him 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:47.440 or against him. I'm going against this Fangio Fannie Pack 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:50.840 jerk Uh. Here's the deal. If you want to beat 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:53.680 Kansas City, you at least have to have a decent offense, 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:57.520 because even if you're playing better on on on defense, 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:00.760 they're still gonna get some points. So to me, this 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:03.440 is not the time to be going against Kansas City. 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:07.200 I like going against Kansas City when they're giving five, six, seven, eight, nine, 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:10.400 ten points. You can get the backdoor covers where when 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:14.520 this situation, you're asking Denver to really be competitive with them, 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:16.840 and maybe they are, but they're gonna have to prove 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:19.960 it to me. Just because you beat markets Mariota doesn't 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:24.120 make me think your defense is fantastic. So if I'm 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:26.520 not gonna bet this in my three top bets, but 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:28.000 if I had to bet here, I do have a 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:32.480 strong lean to Kansas City. Yeah, I'm I'm actually this 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:34.800 is gonna be one of my best bets for the week. 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:38.400 I really like Kansas City monus three. Um, when you 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:40.920 start looking at this, uh, if you go if you 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:43.040 look at a look ahead number, So basically what I 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:45.600 would have made this in the preseason, it would have 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:49.679 been Kansas City by almost five points. And I understand 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:52.400 that bad things have happened to them over the last 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:55.240 two weeks. I still think of the Indie game as 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:59.679 kind of inexplicable. How um Indianapolis defense that was down 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:02.280 Cup a couple of other top players was able to 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:05.360 stop Kansas City. Obviously, you know the Mahomes injury and 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:08.480 his ankle probably played a part in that, And and 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:10.480 sure he's probably still a little bit banged up, but 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:13.120 for all we know he's gonna play tonight, He's probably 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.680 gonna look like the Pat Mahomes that we all know 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:20.080 and love. And um, I just think, you know, Denver 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:22.240 was a team coming into the season that we didn't 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:26.000 really think that highly of. Um. Yes, their defense looks 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:29.199 a little bit better, but I'm um so one of 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:32.360 the things on defense and on offense, I look at 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:35.480 success rate and I adjust for strength the schedule based 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:38.400 on who they've played. Denver's defenses look pretty good. They 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:41.520 look ninth in past defense and seventeen in rush defense. 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.120 And in contrast, Kansas City is has really struggled. So 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:47.600 the twenty two and past defense and and thirty ONEET 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:49.920 and rush defense and and they couldn't do anything against 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:53.920 Indie's offensive line. But still with all those things being said, 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:57.640 it's it's Patrick Mahomes. Um, it's a division game. Perhaps 0:10:57.679 --> 0:10:59.559 they were looking forward to this game a little bit 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:04.200 last week. Um, it's the national primetime game. I like 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:07.080 Kansas City minus three. I am going to add on 0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:09.880 the best bet of the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs. Now, 0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:13.080 I know last week I said this about the Houston 0:11:13.120 --> 0:11:15.360 Texans line where the Chiefs were concerned, where I said, 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.200 you know, down to four, that this was an overreaction 0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:20.960 over adjustment, and I thought the Chiefs were cheap. Then 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:24.080 Chiefs went out to a seventeen to three lead. Uh 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:25.560 and then at the end of the first half there 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.959 was that sequence that really changed the game. Juan Thornhill 0:11:28.960 --> 0:11:31.880 picked off to Shaun Watson. Should have knocked it down. 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:35.000 It was a fourth down play. Mahomes and the Chiefs 0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:38.120 uh Eddie redecided they were gonna try to matriculate the 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.360 ball down the field from deep in their h from 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:43.520 deep on their side. Mahomes was strip sacked with twenty 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:47.120 seconds left in the half. Houston recovers, Watson waltz is 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:49.320 into the end zone. On the very next play, Houston 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:51.960 lad and they never looked back. Kansas City was held 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:55.480 to three nine total yards. They gave up four seventy two. Yes, 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.120 their defense is a sieve. Uh. And then there's Denver 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:01.280 who held Tennessee to two a fourth teen on third downs. 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:03.559 But by the way, Denver was also two for fourteen 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:06.400 on third downs. Joe Flacco in that offense. Not scary anybody. 0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:10.640 They did help hold Tennessee to two four total yards 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:14.720 thirty nine on the ground, they sacked both Mariota and 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:20.120 Tannehill combine seven times three picks. But it's Mariana, it's Tannehill. 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:23.320 They are not the Kansas City Chiefs. Snooze Flash. And 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.120 I'm basically going to back up everything that everybody said, 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:30.040 which is this is three points Kansas City. Like the 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:33.319 the notion that two weeks ago we would tell ourselves, hey, 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:35.160 by the way, in two weeks that Thursday night game, 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:37.559 Kansas City is only gonna be a three point favorite. 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:40.520 We might have responded, Oh did mahomes get hurt in 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:42.960 the next two weeks, like we literally would have said 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.400 that we there's no there would be no other explanation 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:48.320 for this. It's Kansas City for me. And this is 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:50.559 one of these bets that you have to be willing 0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:52.880 to lose, right Like, It's one of these where I'm like, look, 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.240 it's Kansas City minus three. I'm betting it. If I lose, 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:57.720 so be it tip of the cap to Vic Fangio 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.679 and Denver, and then I'll never bet the Kansas City chiefs, 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.959 you know, in this current form with his defense ever again, 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:05.520 but one more shot at this on a Thursday night 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:08.319 at Denver, just giving three, Thank you very much. I'll 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:10.400 take that. So Kansas City a best pet for me too. 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:12.560 So Ed and I have already given a best pet Todd, 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:16.079 So mark those down. Okay, I'm marking down Gil and 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:20.880 Ed at Kansas City minus three. Ed's already Ed has 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.559 already given two best bets. He's also got the Texas 0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:26.440 plus one and do you like Texans plus one better? 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.280 He already said it. He as totally bumbled the show 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:35.160 because again, well we'll get to that, because he didn't 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:38.720 give an explanation. Good one and I like I like 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:41.839 Houston plus one better. Okay, well, now you're bumbling the 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.040 show further, Mike, because you're going out of order. So, 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:48.599 for goodness sake, he already gave the pick, if I know, 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:50.960 but he didn't give the full explanation. So let's go 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.040 around the horn for first picks, and then we'll get 0:13:53.040 --> 0:13:55.640 to Texans plus one from Ed as his number two pick, 0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:58.400 where he can give his full explanation for it. Yes, Todd, 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:00.199 is that the way to do it. That is the 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:02.680 way to do it. And I'm surprised with Mike's operational 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:05.600 background that he doesn't get that. Vice president. First of all, 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:08.360 he gave the pick, and then we went back to 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:12.800 Thursday night. I have a question for Todd. Yes, yes, 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:17.000 makes what makes Vic Fangio a jerk? He said, he's 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:21.080 a jerk. You have a personal experience, Yes, I have. 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.680 I have five personal experiences with him, three against him 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:28.880 and two four him and and uh, you know, I'll 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:31.320 be honest, if I went to lunch with him, I 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:35.560 definitely wouldn't even consider picking up the check. Well, there 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.640 was already a lane there, whether it was Fangio or 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:42.240 any other human being on earth. That's right, Todd. Todd, 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:43.880 I love you, I say it, I love talk. Don't 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:46.160 get mad. Bil. Can you ask Mike to make a 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:48.880 best bet? Because you know, I feel we've really dumbed 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:51.440 it down. We have a stand for PhD on the line, 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:54.960 I know, and I apologize, Mike. Uh, since you tried 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.480 to further bumble the show. What is your first bet, Mike? 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.600 First best bet? Um? I'm going to take the New 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:06.200 York Giants minus three? Really? Uh? Yes, And if you'd 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.800 have told me after two weeks that I'd ever have 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:10.880 the Giants as the best bet, I would have probably 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:14.280 said I've lost my mind. But I think this is 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:17.880 a tough spot. A ten am Pacific start game, traveling 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:22.600 across the country for Arizona, and the Giants look to 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:26.040 have their full complement of their offense back, not only 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:28.400 with Barkley but with the receiver in the tight end. 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:33.000 I think this is a short price. I don't know 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:36.560 that Arizona, with their awful defense, will score enough points 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.760 to keep up with with with Daniel Jones, because I 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:41.840 think the Giants can hang in the mid thirties on 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:45.040 Arizona here. Uh, just so long as they don't get 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.840 too far behind in this game, like Arizona did, so 0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:51.840 i'l a three with the Giants as my first best bet. Okay, 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.680 by the way I was, I was saying really uh, 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:58.160 not because I didn't like the pick, but because I'm 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:01.840 surprised anybody gravitated towards this game. But your explanation, Ringstreet. 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:03.880 By the way, I had been Fawkes from ESPN on 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:07.120 a numbers game at Visa this morning. He also likes 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:10.560 the Giants. Arizona did for all of their UH one 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.120 point win against the Falcons last week. They did have 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:16.040 a bunch of lucky breaks, not lucky, but things went 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.760 their way. Damian Bird looked like he might have fumbled 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:21.960 after a fifty eight yard catch call was upheld after review. 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:24.440 Kyler Murray ran for a first down on the game's 0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:26.440 final drive on a play that was close to being 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.120 short of the marker, but that review was also confirmed. 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:32.040 And then Todd you wanted to say something about like 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:34.920 we we all talked about horrible calls, and certainly Monday 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.360 night football was on full display Detroit and Green Bay, 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:40.560 but Youth claimed that Arizona was the beneficiary of the 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.160 worst call you've ever seen this season. The kick catch interference. 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:48.880 You know, Falcons down, get back to seven, all are 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.640 punting the ball because of course, you know, the Falcons 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:54.000 can't continue and take the lead, but they have to 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.400 bed and punt the ball. They punt the ball up 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:58.760 in the air pretty high, So there's it's one of 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:00.720 those deals where there's like a whole bunch of guys 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:04.800 coming back toward the returner and the off quite frankly, 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:08.000 the receiving team blockers were closer to the guy making 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:11.360 the fair catch than the other guys, and it hit 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:15.240 this leg and of course bounces away. Falcons get the ball, 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:17.800 but they call kick catch interference. In what I will 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:20.840 contend is definitely in the top three of the worst 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:23.960 NFL calls we've seen this year. And uh, you know 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:28.320 w W E style. Of course, Atlanta loses, Okay, So 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:30.800 add that all those things, Todd's call them the two 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:33.760 that I just mentioned. Arizona had everything break there. We're 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:35.800 including a miss extra point right for Matt Bryant to 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.400 win it. So add those in the Giants column as well. 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:42.040 That even Arizona and Victory had everything break their way 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.120 last week against the Falcons. Todd, your first best bet, sir, 0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:49.720 my best bet is the Jacksonville Jaguars minus three and 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.959 a half. I think the Cincinnati Bengals are not a 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.400 team that you want to take as a dog, as 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:57.960 a short dog. I think you want that team when 0:17:57.960 --> 0:18:01.240 they're getting eleven, twelve, f teen points and can get 0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.119 back to our covers. I don't think you want them 0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:07.200 when they're only getting three and a half, albeit at home. 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:11.520 I think the Jags are a pretty good defensive football team, 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:15.480 and couple out with the Cincinnati horrible defense, I think 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.280 the Jags will be able to get out past the 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:19.240 three and a half. You know this for me, by 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.040 the way, was the biggest difference between my guessing lines 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:24.639 guests and the actual line. I thought Jacksonville would be 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:26.520 five and a half point favorites, and as you said, 0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:28.199 they are only three and a half point favorite. So 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:32.520 Jacksonville your number one best bet. Alright, best bet number two. 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:35.239 I know some people here are upset that you uh 0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:37.400 that I went out of order, I should say, and 0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:39.600 that you tipped off your second best bet bet. But 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.680 please so that everybody's happy. Texans plus one that's your 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:44.800 second best bet. That's right. You'll remember you were on 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:47.160 the show, so you get to do whatever you want. 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:51.320 But I and I indeed I like Houston plus one. 0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:53.879 I really think this line is an overreaction to what 0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:58.880 happened two weeks ago when Indianapolis Kansas City nineteen to thirteen. 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:02.520 It was really an inexplicable game. UH, India's defense is 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:05.600 not particularly good, and then they had three starters that 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:09.399 did not play for the majority of that game, and 0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:13.400 yet they still got the win against Pat Mahomes. Of course, 0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:16.520 there were other situations going on there as well, because 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:19.240 Mahomes got his ankle tweaked and it hasn't looked like 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:23.359 the normal Pat Mahomes since then. However, India hasn't played 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:25.919 since then, and I just don't think that lightning strikes 0:19:25.960 --> 0:19:29.440 twice again for this defense. They're still dealing with the injuries. 0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:32.880 Safety MALIEK. Cooker is out UH Darris Leondard the linebacker 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:35.840 and Clayton Gethers, the safety are both listed as questionable 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:39.840 with concussions. And you know, even with their good performance 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:43.360 against Kansas City, the Colts don't look good on defense 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.080 by my numbers. So when I look at adjusticed success rate, 0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:50.160 the Cults are sixteenth against the pass against the run. 0:19:51.119 --> 0:19:53.560 Now on offense, The Colts offense is essentially what you 0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:56.720 would expect without Andrew Luck, but a great offensive line 0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:01.240 there in passing, but best in the NFL and running 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:03.840 the ball. So they'll try to run the ball against Houston. 0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:06.880 I don't think that's gonna go particularly well. Uh Houston's 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:10.960 run defense is good, ranked tenth in the NFL by 0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:14.399 my adjustice success. Right, that's significantly better than what they 0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:17.239 faced against Kansas City. I've also been looking at Pro 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:20.640 Football Focus and their player grades to help my analysis 0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:23.679 of games this year. One thing that's jumped out to 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:27.520 me with Houston is that defensive tackle DJ Reader has 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:29.720 a grade of ninety and run defense and that's out 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:33.639 of a hundred. So overall, my numbers actually like Houston 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:36.520 to win this game. Outright, I will go with Houston 0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:41.160 plus one at Indy Houston plus one at Indie Houston. 0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:44.520 Last week against the Chiefs, I realized it was the Chiefs, 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:46.960 but still thirty nine minutes and forty eight seconds of 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:51.080 possession nineteen twelve, just nineteen twelve for the Chiefs outgame 0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:53.560