1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: Welcome to How to Money. I'm Joel, I'm Matt and 2 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 1: today we're talking practical and beautiful investing advice with Callie Cox. 3 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, so it is time to dive in deep on 4 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 2: investing during turbulent times. Joel, and we are fortunate to 5 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 2: be speaking with Callie Cox, who is a part of 6 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 2: the Ritholtz Wealth management team. Before that, we met her 7 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 2: back in the day when she was with Ally invest 8 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 2: E Toro. After that, and now she's also the author 9 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: of Optimistic Cali, her newsletter where she seeks to deliver 10 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 2: sane and rational advice to every day investors just like us, 11 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 2: just like you and me. 12 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:53,639 Speaker 1: Man. 13 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 2: She works tirelessly day and day out to make investors 14 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,639 Speaker 2: feel confident and informed about their money. And we've got 15 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: a lot to talk about when it comes to investing. 16 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 2: Folks don't realize that investing like it seems like all 17 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 2: we talk about, but not to the level at which 18 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 2: we're going to talk about it today. We're gonna, I 19 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 2: don't know, We're really gonna get into it with you. 20 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 2: And I'm excited for this conversation. 21 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm psyched too. Thanks for having me. 22 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: Of course. Yeah, you you eat breathe and sleep it. 23 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: We I don't know, we think about a lot more 24 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: than just investing, but so were you're curious to pick 25 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: your brain because we're in interesting times right now. First though, 26 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: we have to ask you what your craft beer equivalent is. 27 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 1: What do you explore John, even though obviously you're investing 28 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: solidly for your future. 29 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 3: Well, I told y'all, and so the audience knows. I've 30 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 3: thought a lot about this, But I my husband and 31 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 3: I spent a lot of money on food and wine, 32 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 3: which is a pretty typical answer. I feel like you 33 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,199 Speaker 3: get a lot of foodies. But you know, with us, 34 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 3: we became obsessed with wine after we went to NAPA 35 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty one. Of course, during the pandemic, a 36 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 3: lot of us had nothing better to do than drink 37 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 3: us So as y'all probably leaned more into bore that out. Yeah, yeah, yeah, 38 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 3: it's true. It's true. As you guys lean more into beer, 39 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 3: we leaned more into wine, and after NAPA we were hooked. 40 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 3: So we're not we're not serious wine collectors, but we 41 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 3: do like exploring different wines and we love just you know, 42 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 3: eating out and you know, exploring all the different restaurants 43 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 3: in Charlotte, and I love to cook. I really like 44 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 3: getting quality product and you know, cooking at home too, 45 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 3: So I feel like that's our niche. You know, where 46 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 3: we lean in when we're leaning out on other things 47 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 3: like cars. I drive a nine year old camera. It's 48 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 3: not there are areas that we lean into, areas we 49 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 3: lean out music. 50 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: I love it. I will say the wine habit too. 51 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: While it can be very expensive similar to graft beer, 52 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: it's not as bad if you're drinking it at home 53 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: and you're making your own food, right, I mean, if 54 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: you're going out, the markup on bottles when you visit 55 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: a nice restaurant is significant. So yeah, drinking that bottle 56 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: at home is going to save you money. 57 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's absolutely true. There even and I know this 58 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 3: differs from state to state, but they're even bring your 59 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 3: own beverage restaurants, bring your own wine restaurants. And we 60 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 3: have a few good shops in Charlotte where you can 61 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 3: go and buy wine at retail and they'll serve it 62 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 3: with you, serve it to you with your dinner. 63 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 2: But then but then you charge that corkage fee, and 64 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 2: that just to me feels like a total slap in 65 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 2: the face. They're like, sure, you can bring your fancy 66 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 2: stuff from home, but we're going to charge you to 67 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 2: open it. 68 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 3: You gotta find a place that doesn't have a corkage fee. 69 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 1: I know those exist. This is why Calli brings her 70 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: own corkscrew keeps and just pulls it out as neat. 71 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 1: She's got a little spout. 72 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 2: They're like, ma'am, what that spout coming out of the 73 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 2: bottom of your of your bag there, crickler, she's filling 74 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 2: her glass up under the table. Callie, what is one 75 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 2: winery next time I happen to go to Napa or 76 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 2: Sonoma that we got to check out. 77 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 1: You're a fan of. 78 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 3: Okay, so Chapole very good. They are a national distributors, 79 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 3: so I can find a few of Chapoli's bottles in Charlotte. 80 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 3: So that's that's an accessible one that also has a 81 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 3: really good tour, really good wine. We also went to 82 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 3: one called Barnett. It's in the mountains of Napa, and 83 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 3: Mountain wine has a more like smoky, almost like I 84 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 3: don't even know how scotchy, kind of scotchy like earthyy 85 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 3: taste to it because the soil is a little different. 86 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 3: I think the grapes have to struggle more. But Barnett 87 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 3: has an incredible wine called the Rattlesnake, and it's a 88 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 3: little more expensive. It's definitely a splurge for us. But 89 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 3: the gosh, the mouth feel, I hate saying that. The 90 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 3: mouth feel and the experience of it is just really 91 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 3: really complex. 92 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 2: Okay, I'm speaking about language a winery up in the mountains. 93 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 2: That sounds incredible. 94 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: So struggling great. 95 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, and the views literally wrote that down for some 96 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 2: time or the future when we might head out there. 97 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 2: But you know, I didn't mention your title there at 98 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 2: Red Holts. You are the chief market strategist. What is like, 99 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 2: what do you actually do? And uh, I've also got 100 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 2: to think that regardless of what you do, that your 101 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 2: job might be a little more difficult in times like these. 102 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 3: Yeah. So I get a lot of questions about that, 103 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 3: and I totally understand them because they are strategists in 104 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 3: every industry, and you know, a strategists, we do strategy. 105 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 3: What does that even mean? I try to describe my 106 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 3: role as a resident market NERD type role, and of course, 107 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 3: you know I think about markets a lot, I eat, sleep, 108 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 3: breathe investing. I know our portfolio is inside and out. 109 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 3: I talk to clients all the time about how their 110 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 3: money is invested and how how market moves are affecting 111 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,159 Speaker 3: their money. But in a way, it's also a strategic 112 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,039 Speaker 3: comms role. I'm telling a story, for lack of a 113 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 3: better phrase, about what's happening in markets, and you know 114 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,919 Speaker 3: why that matters to everyday investors like you and me, 115 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 3: and thinking about how to tell that story to a 116 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 3: wide range of audiences. 117 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: At one point recently, so you write a blog, which 118 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 1: is part of where you do some of the storytelling, 119 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: and you wrote practical advice is a good foundation, but 120 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: everybody needs a bit of beauty. And that's just interesting 121 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 1: to think that, Oh I need beauty inside of my 122 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: investment portfolio. So I'm curious, why what do you mean 123 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 1: by that? And what does beautiful investing look like? 124 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 3: Well I got thinking of this because I read a 125 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 3: blog from Morgan Housel. So I can't take credit for this. 126 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 3: I can't take credit for all of this, but Morgan 127 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 3: wrote a really great blog about magazine architects or architects 128 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 3: that create these beautiful buildings, ones that you see in 129 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 3: magazines and architects digest, you know, ones that we all 130 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 3: drool over because we don't have to live in them, 131 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: but they're really not functional. You know, they don't have 132 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 3: they don't have the size of the garage that you 133 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 3: need to like actually you know, keep your car there, 134 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 3: or you don't. You don't have the right functionality to 135 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 3: actually live there. And I think the concept of that 136 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 3: is true for a lot of different areas of our lives. 137 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 3: And one area that people never talk about that for 138 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 3: is investing, because all we get is stay invested, stay 139 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 3: the course, put your money in an index fund, and 140 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 3: hold it, hold it until you die type advice. And 141 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 3: you know, I agree with that. I think it's hard 142 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 3: to make the argument against it. But I also think 143 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 3: that there's just an ocean of nuancewe queen staying invested 144 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 3: and you know, you know, kind of being haphazard with 145 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 3: your money, and that's really important. That's something we talk 146 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 3: about a lot with our clients here, the fact that 147 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 3: you know, you have to stay invested. You're investing for decades, 148 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 3: but we want to make sure that you stay invested, 149 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 3: and there are things like you can do that kind 150 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 3: of go against that traditional logic. But I also think 151 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 3: about it in my own world because like, yes, I 152 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 3: talk about the benefits of index funds, but even I 153 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 3: have targets in my portfolio. I sell according to those targets, 154 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 3: and you know, I am a little bit more active active, 155 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 3: even though I'd consider myself a long term investor looking 156 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 3: at retirement. 157 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 2: What that does it just allows room for humanity and 158 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 2: like kind of going back to the Morgan househole analogy, like, yeah, 159 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 2: the reason those look spaces look cool is because they don't. 160 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 2: Actually they couldn't actually house somebody in real life, or 161 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,559 Speaker 2: the practical needs of a family with a toddler running 162 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: around with sharp edges everywhere, whatever it might be. And 163 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 2: I think what you're speaking to is the abilit to 164 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 2: maybe be a bit flexible when it comes to our portfolios, 165 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: as opposed to completely grinning it, bearing it, never checking it, 166 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 2: because it's really hard to ignore all the news that's 167 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 2: popping up on our phones that we hear people talk about. 168 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 2: On that note, can you speak to the current state 169 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 2: of things? I guess all the volatility that we've felt. 170 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 2: It feels like we lived a couple of years just 171 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: in the past few months. Can you catch us up 172 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: to speed on let's say, the Trump the initial Trump bump, 173 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 2: but then the subsequent deflation. Why all this has happened? 174 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, how much time do we have here? Where 175 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 3: do I start? 176 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: Seriously, this is a podcast, so many hours? 177 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, we can go as long as it takes, right, So, 178 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 3: I guess where we'd have to start is in the 179 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:43,839 Speaker 3: middle of last year. And I think it's important to 180 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 3: understand where the economy was before we headed into this 181 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 3: year and had to digest all these policy changes. But 182 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 3: actually you'd probably have to back up to COVID, but 183 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,199 Speaker 3: I'm not going to do that. Interest rates are actually 184 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 3: quite high right now. They've come down a little bit 185 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 3: since the middle of last year, and we've been in 186 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 3: before this year, we were in this spot with the 187 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 3: economy where you know, the job market was incredibly resilient. 188 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,439 Speaker 3: We had a year or two where, you know, if 189 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,599 Speaker 3: you're an employee, you had employers begging for you to 190 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 3: join their companies because demand was way too high. You know, 191 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 3: if you weren't switching your jobs, then you probably had 192 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 3: a lot of negotiation leverage at the table. And you 193 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 3: know that that leverage, that employee power fell more and 194 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 3: more and more, but at a gradual pace because the 195 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 3: FED put the brakes on the economy. Interest rates were 196 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 3: super high, mortgage rates were super high. We were all 197 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 3: thinking about saving instead of investing and borrowing. And that 198 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 3: really put us in a place in the middle of 199 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:43,320 Speaker 3: last year where the FED and when I say the FED, 200 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 3: I'm talking about the interest rate nerds up in DC 201 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,199 Speaker 3: that you know, basically pull the levers on interest rates. 202 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,839 Speaker 3: The FED looked at the economy and they said, Okay, 203 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 3: we think there's a risk to going too far here. 204 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 3: Interest rates are putting a lot of pressure on the economy, 205 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 3: and we're seeing that pressure bleed into the job market. 206 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 3: So the FED started bringing rates down. The job market 207 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 3: got a little bit better at the end of the year, 208 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 3: but the economy was in a bit of a fragile state. 209 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 3: And then we moved into this year, and you know, 210 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 3: we've all seen the headline since then, right. A lot 211 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 3: of tariff policy that's been put out there, speculated, put 212 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 3: into place, walked back, put back into place, a lot 213 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 3: of snip snap decision making. And businesses, both businesses and 214 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 3: Americans are watching this happen and they're like, I have 215 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 3: no idea what the future holds. So instead of investing, 216 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 3: instead of spending my money on big ticket items like 217 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 3: cars and houses, which by the way, still costs a 218 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 3: lot of money because interest rates are still high. They've 219 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 3: decided to stop, and I think that I think the 220 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 3: pivot point, the big pivot point was April second Liberation Day, 221 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 3: where we got the list of pretty wide ranging tariffs 222 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 3: for a lot of different countries and there was a 223 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 3: lot of back and forth there, but that's really when 224 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 3: the stock market started dropping like a stone. It was 225 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 3: down about ten percent up to that point, but in 226 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 3: the week after that, we saw historical swings, like biggest 227 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 3: swings that we've seen since the COVID crisis in the 228 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 3: financial crisis, as people really tried to process what huge 229 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 3: reciprocal tariffs could mean for their lives, their portfolios, their businesses. 230 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 3: And that's kind of where we are. We're still processing it. 231 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, the reciprocal tariffs that weren't really reciprocal and that 232 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: have been pulled back but not fully rolled back. I 233 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: guess I'm curious too, do you think this new political 234 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: approach and new policy priorities do you think that is 235 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: mostly what we're seeing or it feels like there was 236 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 1: a lot of talk about an overinflated stock market even 237 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 1: before Trump took office. Do you think part of what's 238 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: happening to the stock market is a natural pullback that 239 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: occurs when stocks are overvalued. 240 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 3: I think it's a little bit of both. And I 241 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 3: hesitate to say that stocks are overvalue because I think 242 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 3: it's really hard to judge that. So when you're talking 243 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 3: about valuation, I'm going to make an assumption, but you're 244 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,959 Speaker 3: probably talking about the price to earnings ratio, or where 245 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 3: earnings are expected to be over the next year and 246 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 3: where a stock or an index is trading relative to 247 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 3: those earnings. Right, Yeah, Okay, so pe price to earnings 248 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 3: ratio is a really it's a good way to judge 249 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 3: how stocks are valued, but it's hard to say. I'm 250 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 3: trying to think of the right way to say this. 251 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 3: It's hard to it's hard to say where they should 252 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 3: be valued because that price to earnings ratio can price 253 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 3: in a lot of hope, you know, a lot of 254 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 3: dreams about AI, a lot of optimism about. 255 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: The future, and values in the eye of the beholder. 256 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 3: A little bit value is in the eye of the beholder. 257 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 3: You know, there are designer shirts, there are shirts that 258 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 3: you get off the rack at Walmart. They're made with 259 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 3: the same fabrics, but you're paying different prices, right, same 260 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 3: thing with the price to earnings ratio, And in most environments, 261 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 3: a higher PE is actually okay. It's okay, tod, it's 262 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 3: okay to think about where tech stocks could be going 263 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 3: in the future. Just because the PE is high doesn't 264 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,439 Speaker 3: mean the market's about to crash. The problem is when 265 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 3: you start to see economic cracks, right, and that's when 266 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 3: the optimism starts to fade. That's when you should probably 267 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 3: expect the PE to start falling because because again, you know, 268 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,199 Speaker 3: expectations for the future start to fall, and then actual earnings, 269 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 3: if it gets bad enough, will start to fall as well. 270 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 3: And that's the moment that we're in right now, where yeah, 271 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 3: you're probably looking back and saying, Okay, the stock market 272 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:36,839 Speaker 3: is probably richly valued or too high for what could 273 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 3: be coming. But yeah, what you brought up is actually 274 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 3: really important too. You know, the stock market sells off 275 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 3: in healthy economies. This in a way is kind of 276 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 3: part of the process. And we're coming off two incredible 277 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 3: years in the stock market. I mean twenty percent back 278 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 3: to back gains in the S and P five hundred. 279 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 2: That's true, we're not going to talk about teriffs the 280 00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 2: entire time. 281 00:13:58,800 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 3: But ken if you want. 282 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 2: I feel like our listeners have had enough. I feel 283 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 2: like I've had enough, to be honest, because I feel 284 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 2: like so much if they haven't had enough with us, 285 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 2: I feel like a lot of it is overblown, And 286 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 2: at least at the time of this recording, we haven't 287 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 2: yet feel like businesses are looking ahead because they're looking 288 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 2: at quarters at a time, and especially small businesses and 289 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 2: how they're impacted by terras and the foreign availability of 290 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 2: goods that they need as inputs to run their businesses right. 291 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 2: But as consumers, a lot of folks haven't seen significant 292 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 2: increases when it comes to when it comes to prices, 293 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 2: and that was one of the biggest things that the 294 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 2: market was reacting to. Do you feel that the whole 295 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 2: terrorist thing is overblown or is it just it's more 296 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 2: complex and it's just going to take longer for it 297 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 2: to trickle through the system before we start seeing the headlines, 298 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 2: before we start seeing the lines of folks lining up 299 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 2: at stores, that kind of thing. 300 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 3: I think it's happening. So Liberation Day was April second, 301 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 3: so there's been about four weeks between that initial announcement 302 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 3: Trump with the poster and know us recording today. That's 303 00:14:57,680 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 3: about the time it takes from a ship to move 304 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 3: to go from China to the port of Los Angeles, 305 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 3: for those goods to be unloaded and finally make it 306 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 3: to their final destination. That stuff takes time. That's a 307 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 3: long journey. So what we're seeing right now is that 308 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 3: port volumes are coming down, which is concerning. That means 309 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 3: that there actually is some There are inventory changes that 310 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 3: are happening on the back of these dramatic tariffs, especially 311 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 3: coming from China. And look, once that's happening, it's gonna 312 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 3: roll through the system and you're gonna see it in 313 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 3: some way or another, empty shelves, higher prices, mix of 314 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 3: the two. That is anybody's guess. What worries me is 315 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 3: that we're starting to see indications through company earnings reports 316 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 3: and through more bird's eye view. Macro reports that a 317 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 3: lot of companies feel comfortable passing along those prices, which 318 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 3: means you and I when we go to the store, 319 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 3: we're going to pay higher prices for those goods. The 320 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 3: companies aren't just going to eat that cost. 321 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm curious too, how much of an impact 322 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: like foreign backlash against tariffs, Like what could the ramifications 323 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: be there? We've already seen Canadians saying I'm not vacationing 324 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 1: in the United States anymore, and just far fewer people 325 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: from just north are are coming down, and it's you know, 326 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 1: hurting our tourism industry. And you wrote something about I 327 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 1: think foreign consumers can essentially cause a lot of pain 328 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: for Corporate America. Do you think those boycotts from other 329 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: countries because of the way we're acting could have other 330 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: ramifications too. 331 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 3: You know, I worry a lot about this because I 332 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 3: think it's hard to quantify the eventual impact, but we 333 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 3: know the impact could be big. And that's actually why 334 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 3: I wrote the Boycott American newsletter. I wasn't saying boycott America, 335 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 3: but what I was trying to do is put some 336 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 3: numbers behind how interwoven foreign consumers, foreign tourists, foreign investors 337 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 3: are in our markets and the travel. The travel part 338 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 3: is interesting because we've already started to see data and 339 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 3: really interesting color from travel companies on how foreign bookings 340 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 3: are down. So we heard it from Delta, I believe 341 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,879 Speaker 3: we heard it from American in the past few weeks 342 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 3: they've seen bookings come down, especially international bookings foreign tourists 343 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 3: coming into the US. And I saw a report from 344 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 3: a Canadian travel consulting company and like, look, this is 345 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 3: this is one report, but it's backed up by a 346 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 3: lot of color that we're seeing or that we're hearing. 347 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 3: But this one report from the Canadian travel consulting company 348 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 3: said that Canadian bookings of travel into the US are 349 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 3: down seventy percent year every year, which is a huge number. 350 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 3: It's a scary number. And I don't take one piece 351 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 3: of data and you know, un run down a rabbit 352 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 3: hole with that. I don't think that's smart for anybody 353 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,360 Speaker 3: to do, but it should, at the very least make 354 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 3: you think a little bit about, you know, the second 355 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 3: order consequences or the second order effects of what could 356 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,199 Speaker 3: be going on here and in markets. I don't know 357 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 3: if a lot of people know this. I certainly wouldn't 358 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,880 Speaker 3: know if I didn't work in finance, but foreign investors 359 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 3: have been major buyers of stocks and bonds over the 360 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 3: past several years, primarily because we have the biggest and best, 361 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 3: most innovative companies in the world. I mean, everybody wants 362 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 3: to invest in Apple, right, but on the bond side, 363 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 3: we also have an incredibly deep and incredibly rich and 364 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,719 Speaker 3: volume heavy marketing government det it's called the treasury market, 365 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 3: and foreign investors have been turning more and more to 366 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 3: treasuries to hedge their portfolios and to get a nice 367 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 3: stable source of yield. So we have to step back 368 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 3: and consider that some of that, maybe all of that 369 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 3: could be at risk here. 370 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, and so much of that. 371 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 2: It's a slow burn. I think that's what I'm coming 372 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 2: to terms with. When it's between the news the headlines 373 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 2: Trump making changes to tear us or to following through 374 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:53,440 Speaker 2: or pulling back in the stock market, it's incredibly reactionary. 375 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 2: And we see day and now I mean not even 376 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 2: day to day changes like minutes a minute, hour by 377 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 2: hour sort of changes. But when it comes to some 378 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 2: of these higher prices, and what you said is totally true, right, 379 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 2: We've seen the reports of the empty cargo ships showing 380 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 2: up at port because they're like, all right, we got 381 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 2: to keep moving. And at some point, if there are 382 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 2: no goods, we might be bound to see higher prices 383 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 2: less availability of goods on the shelves. But from an 384 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 2: investing standpoint, what should we do, Like how should folks 385 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 2: respond to the different pieces of news that they come across, 386 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 2: because kind of going back to the beginning of our conversation, 387 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 2: you're talking about having beauty, you're investing being beautiful. 388 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 1: I feel like a part of what you're. 389 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 2: Saying there is to take into account the fact that 390 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 2: there are going to be things that you're going to 391 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 2: want to want to react to and to allow for 392 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,120 Speaker 2: some of that humanity to play out in our investing. 393 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 2: Would you recommend that? 394 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's a good place to start, and 395 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 3: I just want to add something else on that practicality 396 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 3: versus beauty comment. You know, a lot of client conversations 397 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,199 Speaker 3: we have, and a lot of conversations I'm having with 398 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 3: friends and family right now are what to do. And 399 00:19:58,160 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 3: usually the options that they see in front of them 400 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 3: are to sell everything and run for the hills, or 401 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 3: buy everything and stay invested, because that's what the spreadsheet 402 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 3: is telling me to do. Right and measures extreme measures, 403 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 3: But in a way, people don't realize that they're extreme 404 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 3: because I see, because I see different flavors of this 405 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,640 Speaker 3: every day, I can say that it's extreme. And by 406 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 3: the way, if you feel that way, it's okay. You're 407 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 3: human your brain is working as it should. It's supposed 408 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 3: to alert you of risks, but as an investor, you 409 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 3: have to take that in and you know understand how 410 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 3: you should react in this moment based on how you 411 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 3: feel in your gut, but also based on what you're 412 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 3: going to do with your money and how much time 413 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 3: you have in front of you. And it's this, it's 414 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 3: this really tough, tangled mix of reality and feeling, and 415 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 3: that's why finance is really hard. But to go back 416 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 3: to your question, I mean, I think a lot of 417 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,400 Speaker 3: people have that middle lane and they don't realize they 418 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,159 Speaker 3: have it. So if it means, you know, looking at 419 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 3: your portfolio saying that you're investing for a retirement and 420 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 3: that means that you have a few decades ahead of you, 421 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 3: then you know, maybe it means raising a little bit 422 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 3: of cash, filling up your emergency fund, making sure you 423 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 3: feel comfortable with where you are in case you will 424 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 3: lose your job, because unfortunately, job loss is the reality 425 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 3: of economic crises. That's one of the hallmarks of you know, 426 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 3: why growth slows down and people stop spending money, and 427 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,120 Speaker 3: you know, trying to put yourself in a place where 428 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 3: you're comfortable but you don't abandon your future self at 429 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 3: the same time, because, like again, if you go back 430 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 3: to the math, it makes a lot of sense to 431 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 3: buy when the stock market is down ten or fifteen 432 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 3: percent from highs if you have decades ahead of you. 433 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 3: But that's not so easy in practice. And I certainly 434 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 3: don't want to assume that it is easy with anybody 435 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,360 Speaker 3: I'm talking to, because I'm a human too, I understand 436 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 3: how it feels. 437 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: So you say you're a human, which I fully believe 438 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,479 Speaker 1: you when you say that. What you and actually you've 439 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: alluded to this in some of your recent blocks. So 440 00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,399 Speaker 1: you said you admitted to being a little scared, and 441 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 1: you also have said like, hey, I'm kind of a 442 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 1: type A person means I want more control. I'm curious 443 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 1: how that mixture of being a little fearful because especially 444 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: given the how much you've been around markets and how 445 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 1: much history you've read about, you know, stock market gyrations 446 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: like hey, you're pretty young, Kelly, Like why are you fearful? 447 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 1: And how is your type A self responding to what's 448 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: going on? Like what are you doing? 449 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 3: You just painted me so well Type A and anxious 450 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 3: about everything. Both of those comments are absolutely true, and 451 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 3: I'm not. Look, I don't hide that, and I think 452 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 3: Wall Street sometimes falls into this trap of, you know, 453 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 3: hiding the fact that they're humans, because, Okay, I get 454 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:41,400 Speaker 3: part of it. Like you, you're managing a lot of money, 455 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,439 Speaker 3: and you don't want to lead on that you you 456 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,880 Speaker 3: might have an ounce of uncertainty, of feeling an ounce 457 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 3: of uncertainty in yourself. I get why people move that way, 458 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 3: but I try to approach these situations from a moment 459 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 3: of empathy and if we're being honest here, like I 460 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 3: don't know what the future holds. I down the rabbit 461 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 3: hole sometimes a lot these days, not so much on 462 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,479 Speaker 3: the investing side, but you know, on the policy side, 463 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 3: on the you know, living life as a human side, 464 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 3: where could this go? Especially you know, the with the 465 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 3: extremism of the headlines and policy that we all hear about. 466 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 3: But I'm lucky that I have the investing background. I 467 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 3: know how markets work, and I know how important a 468 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,360 Speaker 3: process is. So I'm not your listeners. So I want 469 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 3: to be clear when I say this. I'm not making 470 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 3: a recommendation. But I know that I am investing for 471 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,880 Speaker 3: retirement and I'm in my thirties, so I have decades 472 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,199 Speaker 3: ahead of me. And even if you're in retirement and 473 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 3: you're living off your portfolio, yes, this moment feels scarier, 474 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 3: but you're probably investing for decades too. God forbid, you're 475 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 3: dying the day that you retire. I hope that doesn't 476 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 3: happen to you. So I think you know, as somebody 477 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 3: who leans back on numbers, I really try to sit 478 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 3: back on the fact that I have a lot of 479 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 3: time ahead of me, that if I do feel anxious, 480 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 3: then I need to make sure sure my financial house 481 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,400 Speaker 3: is in order, so that can cull a little bit 482 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 3: of my feeling there. And look, I leave it up 483 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 3: to the numbers. I have targets for stocks, bonds, and 484 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 3: crypto in my portfolio, and if my allocations move out 485 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 3: of the target, I adjust. I also have pulled forward 486 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 3: a few like monthly investing investing deposits that I was 487 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 3: going to make, because I know that when stocks are 488 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 3: down ten, fifteen to twenty percent, then that's often a 489 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 3: good buying opportunity, even if it doesn't feel good at 490 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 3: the moment. So there are little changes you can make 491 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 3: on the margins, and yes, raising cash is okay on 492 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,199 Speaker 3: the margins if you don't go too far, but there 493 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 3: are little changes you can make to tailor your portfolio 494 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:48,919 Speaker 3: to you and how you feel that don't necessarily doom you, 495 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:50,399 Speaker 3: you know, years down the road. 496 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:55,360 Speaker 2: That's that type a Cali stupat right there, overcoming anxiety 497 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,959 Speaker 2: calli oh and going back to market house numbers. Not 498 00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 2: to make this all about him, but like that's like 499 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 2: the beatle full architectural home, but also there's a little 500 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:03,399 Speaker 2: bit of mess in there, you know, like there's a 501 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 2: little bit or there's a random piece of art that 502 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 2: doesn't quite fit the rest. 503 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: Of the of the house. 504 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 2: Because like that's the kind of thing that allows for 505 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 2: there to be more of that sort of messy day 506 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 2: to day living. It doesn't doesn't have to be all 507 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:20,640 Speaker 2: stoic and perfect and personal and yeah, emotionless, but you've 508 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 2: got more sane and rational investing advice to get to. 509 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 2: With Cali Cox in particular, we're going to talk about 510 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 2: some of the things that some younger investors should keep 511 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 2: in mind. We'll get to that and more right after this. 512 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 1: Our we're back still talking with Calie Cox, talking about 513 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,760 Speaker 1: markets and Cally and just kind of what's happening right 514 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 1: now from an economic perspective and the impact that's having 515 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 1: on personal finance decisions. Kelly, I'm curious too, like, how 516 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 1: do you think the current climate conditions and economic uncertainty 517 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 1: should impact the personal finance decisions were made. I'm thinking about, 518 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,639 Speaker 1: in particular, something as big as buying a house, and 519 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 1: I know that like Zillow has said, hey, we think 520 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: that home prices are actually going to decline this year, 521 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 1: and that might be welcome news from someone who's been 522 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 1: trying to buy a home that it has been unable 523 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,399 Speaker 1: to But then they're like, well, but wait a second, 524 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: my portfolio is down ten percent. I feel like I 525 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: have less buying power now, so maybe it's not a 526 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 1: win win. I don't know, how are you thinking or 527 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 1: how are you advising people think about some of those 528 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:29,360 Speaker 1: bigger buying decisions right now. 529 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a really good question, And of course it 530 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 3: all boils down to your own situation, your own goals. 531 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 3: I know you're going to hear that everywhere, but I 532 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 3: just want to emphasize that that's really important. I don't 533 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,120 Speaker 3: know how much money you have in your bank account, 534 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,879 Speaker 3: I don't know why you're investing your money. Those facts 535 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,960 Speaker 3: are really important when you're making these decisions. The first 536 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,719 Speaker 3: thing I'll say there is that interest rates sit at 537 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 3: the heart of a lot of these decisions. And that's 538 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,119 Speaker 3: why a few minutes ago I was talking about the 539 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:59,400 Speaker 3: Federal Reserve and where they're setting their policy rate. It's 540 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 3: not the Fed's policy rate doesn't directly impact the mortgage 541 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 3: rate that you're going to be paying on a new house, 542 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,959 Speaker 3: but it has a pretty heavy hand and those mortgage 543 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,199 Speaker 3: rates that you're seeing, So to a certain extent, you 544 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 3: have to know where interest rates are and where they're going. 545 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 3: And right now, interest rates are still quite high, which 546 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 3: means that you're getting really nice savings rates on your 547 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,439 Speaker 3: savings account. And if you're not, please switch banks. I 548 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 3: know you can. I know you can get a good 549 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 3: rate there. But at the same time, what you're giving 550 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 3: up is the fact that you borrowing has become more expensive, 551 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 3: and we have these seven percent mortgage rates and ten 552 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,280 Speaker 3: percent auto loan rates that you have to contend with. 553 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:42,440 Speaker 3: So know that in this moment, from the financial side, 554 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,400 Speaker 3: it may not be the best moment to step out 555 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 3: and buy a house. But then again, that's a personal decision, 556 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 3: so you just have to know the risks that you're 557 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 3: taking on when you're you know, making these huge life 558 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 3: altering decisions, and unfortunately the FED isn't on your side. 559 00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 3: They might be down the road, but the problem is 560 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 3: the FED will probably is that the FED will probably 561 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 3: cut interest rates because we start to see some weakness 562 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 3: in the economy and that weakness could affect you in 563 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 3: one way or the other. So I would just take 564 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 3: a step back, you know, understand what you want to 565 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 3: do in the next one year, two years, three years, 566 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 3: write it down on a piece of paper, keep yourself 567 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 3: honest there, and prepare for an environment where it does 568 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,919 Speaker 3: cost a little bit more and you can't, you know, 569 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 3: rely on a steady income. I mean, I hate to 570 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,400 Speaker 3: be I hate to paint the worst case scenario here, 571 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 3: but I think it's important to make these decisions with 572 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:34,920 Speaker 3: all options in mind. 573 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's wise. Yeah, we can't. I thought 574 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 2: you were going to say this, but we can't bank 575 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 2: on those rate cuts for you to go ahead and 576 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 2: buy now while balances are a little bit higher, assuming 577 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,120 Speaker 2: that those rate cuts will come and you have the 578 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: ability to refinance. 579 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,280 Speaker 1: Sure, he had dropping interests. It feels like had been 580 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 1: promised by people, especially in the real estate industry for 581 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: the last couple of years, and they haven't meant to. 582 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 2: Like they're common. 583 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,960 Speaker 1: It's like, well, actually we haven't not yet by the 584 00:28:58,000 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 1: home you can always refin. 585 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 2: Well, let's get back to investing, Kelly, because I want 586 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 2: to talk about the younger generation. There are there have 587 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 2: been a lot of folks who have become more accustomed 588 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:12,080 Speaker 2: to being on their phones where they're trading regularly on 589 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 2: apps like Robinhood. Do you think that this is a 590 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 2: positive trend overall or are you worried that they're going 591 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 2: to get the wrong idea about investing and they're going 592 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 2: to get burned because of the availability. Like, on one hand, 593 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 2: the availability availability is obviously good the democratization of investing, 594 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,320 Speaker 2: but on the other hand, talk to us about maybe 595 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 2: the false pretenses in which a lot of younger folks 596 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 2: are investing. 597 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:37,560 Speaker 3: Yes, unequivocally this is a good thing, and I believe 598 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 3: pretty strongly in this, And of course I have a 599 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 3: brikerage background, so I am a little biased here. But 600 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 3: when look the history of our country is built, what 601 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 3: has been built on walls around capital markets, you know, investing. 602 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 3: You and I, of course we didn't have cell phones 603 00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 3: before the two thousands or so. But you and I 604 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 3: investing without having to call up a broker wasn't possible 605 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 3: until the late nineteen nineties. There was that natural moat 606 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 3: where it was incredibly hard to invest and some people 607 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 3: didn't have the ability to invest because you know, a 608 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 3: lot of this talk was happening behind closed doors. We 609 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 3: couldn't be further from that environment these days. I mean, gosh, 610 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 3: you said it, but you can get on your phone 611 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,560 Speaker 3: swipes are swipe you buy a stock. I think that's 612 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 3: a good thing. I think investing should be accessible to everybody, 613 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 3: and I think every American should have the power to 614 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 3: build wealth the way that they want. It's your money. 615 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 3: I'm not going to tell you what to do with it. 616 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 3: You know, if you bring it to red Holes, I 617 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 3: can help advise you on it. But you know, ultimately, 618 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 3: you do what you want to do, and you should 619 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 3: have the power to be able to do what you 620 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 3: want with your money. And we're there. We are at 621 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 3: a point where I think a lot of investors are 622 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 3: learning hard lessons, which is okay. Sometimes that's the best 623 00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 3: way to grow and learn. But I'm glad that investors 624 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 3: are jumping into the sandbox and you know, trying out 625 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 3: different markets, especially when they're younger, when they can afford 626 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 3: to take on this risk, and you know, when they can, 627 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,000 Speaker 3: you know, start to feel better about about, you know, 628 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 3: investing larger sums of money. I always said this at 629 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 3: Ally and E Toro, and I firmly believe this too. 630 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 3: Sometimes the best way to learn how to invest is 631 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 3: to invest. It's dipping your toe on the water. It's 632 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 3: opening that breakerage account, getting over that initial hump, you know, 633 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 3: maybe throwing ten dollars in, putting it in a stock, 634 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 3: putting it in a fund, and seeing where it goes. 635 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 3: I really think learning is an experience that people underestimate, 636 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,680 Speaker 3: and a lot of Americans, especially younger investors, are getting 637 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 3: that experience right now. 638 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 1: Doing the thing, even if it's done imperfectly. I think 639 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 1: you're right. I think that is overwhelmingly good. And we're 640 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:51,120 Speaker 1: seeing more. I've seen more evidence that investors, young investors 641 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:55,800 Speaker 1: seem to be understanding investing a little bit more, especially 642 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 1: when you see the market drop, and I feel like 643 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,280 Speaker 1: what I'm seeing in Respet is less panic selling and 644 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 1: more buying the dip. How do you think about that? 645 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 1: What's your take on that? 646 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 2: Approach. 647 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 1: Is it are they taking the war and Buffett being 648 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: fearful when others are greedy, being greedy when others are 649 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 1: fearful sort of adage? Or or are these yeah, are 650 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 1: young individual investors becoming a little more sophisticated. 651 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 3: They're definitely becoming more sophisticated. This goes back to the 652 00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 3: learning by experience, right, you know, maybe selling into us 653 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 3: into a stock market drop and then realizing that price 654 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 3: rebounded on you, maybe feeling that pain more acutely through options. 655 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 3: I think investors have learned a bit of a reflex 656 00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 3: over the past decade or so, which I think can 657 00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 3: get a little tricky because I don't think that same 658 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:48,480 Speaker 3: reflex will work in this moment. But I mean I 659 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 3: think investors are aware of, you know, what can happen, 660 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 3: especially with the FED being as powerful as it is 661 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 3: in markets these days. And I don't necessarily think that's 662 00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:59,680 Speaker 3: a bad thing. I mean, we talk about staying invested 663 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,720 Speaker 3: in how hard it is to stay invested all the time, 664 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 3: and you know, younger investors are out here saying by 665 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,760 Speaker 3: the dip and then going into markets, going into markets 666 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 3: without a second thought. Honestly, if you are if you 667 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 3: have decades ahead of you as a twenty something year old, 668 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,720 Speaker 3: then you're doing the right thing. I just think you 669 00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,760 Speaker 3: have to be a little careful about that. And again, 670 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 3: it's your money, you do whatever you want with it. 671 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 3: But you know, I don't think in a high interest 672 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:28,760 Speaker 3: rate environment, when inflation is a problem, and when unemployment 673 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,440 Speaker 3: is a real risk too, I don't think by the 674 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:35,080 Speaker 3: dep works as works as well as people think it will. 675 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 2: I feel that I feel like Kelly might be like 676 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:39,080 Speaker 2: a closet libertarian jewel. 677 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 1: I hear a lot of her saying. 678 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 2: You be you, you do you, it's. 679 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:47,640 Speaker 1: Your money, don't reveal her political affiliations. Man, No, Obviously, 680 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,400 Speaker 1: personal responsibility fastly important. We're talking about taking risks though, 681 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 1: and like when you are investing, that is inevitable. But 682 00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,479 Speaker 1: what are some of the bad, risky moves that you 683 00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:59,120 Speaker 1: are seeing folks make. Especially we're kind of focusing on 684 00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: younger investors here. I don't even want to say younger cohorts. 685 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 2: It's just online folks because sometimes they're older folks, yeah, 686 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,720 Speaker 2: who obviously spend way too much online. But it seems 687 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 2: like that there tends to be a following of different trends, 688 00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 2: which can lead to poor outcomes. So maybe that's the question. 689 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 2: What are some of the negative, risky trends that you 690 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:20,800 Speaker 2: see more folks jumping on these days. 691 00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 3: Well, I want to talk about the social aspect first, 692 00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,959 Speaker 3: because I don't think the social aspect is that bad either. 693 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,400 Speaker 3: We do lots of different things for many different reasons. 694 00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,319 Speaker 3: I think it's okay to invest because your friends are 695 00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 3: investing and you want a sense of community. Again, that's 696 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,440 Speaker 3: my brokerage background speaking. I used to work for a 697 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:43,600 Speaker 3: social investing platform. But I truly don't think that's a problem. 698 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 3: If you want to learn and build community through your money, 699 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:48,520 Speaker 3: it's your money. You do whatever you want with it. 700 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:54,360 Speaker 3: I think the trouble comes when younger investors or investors 701 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,799 Speaker 3: of any age come in and they learn a hard 702 00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,960 Speaker 3: lesson and then they just don't trust cop markets ever again. 703 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 3: And I see that happening for investors of all ages. 704 00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 3: I mean, gosh, we have brikerige customers that I talk 705 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:11,439 Speaker 3: to that really wrestled with this, And what I hate 706 00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 3: about that is, you know, piles of data have shown 707 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,279 Speaker 3: us that capital markets are the way to build wealth 708 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:21,000 Speaker 3: in America. That is a fact that you can't argue 709 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,520 Speaker 3: against and sometimes you just have to, you know, lean 710 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:28,360 Speaker 3: in and kind of ride the coattails of America's best companies. 711 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,319 Speaker 3: You know, sometimes that's the easiest and most accessible path 712 00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,520 Speaker 3: for you. So I think education is really important here. 713 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 3: I think it's smart to remind people that stocks go 714 00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,600 Speaker 3: up and down. You have different layers of risk when 715 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:45,160 Speaker 3: it comes to single stocks, and you're magnifying those risks 716 00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 3: sometimes with options. You know, people need to be equipped 717 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,320 Speaker 3: with how they're investing. But ultimately, I think it's a 718 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,840 Speaker 3: trust thing. If people start to lose trust in capital markets, 719 00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:56,640 Speaker 3: then you're going to have a lot of problems in society. 720 00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 3: And I worry that we're moving toward that point. 721 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,200 Speaker 1: So you just said people need to be reminded stocks 722 00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,880 Speaker 1: go up and down. Do you think in one sense, 723 00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 1: we as a population investor population got used to kind of, hey, 724 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,839 Speaker 1: markets go up. Hey, this is just guaranteed returns that 725 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,960 Speaker 1: far exceed what I'm going to get inside my high 726 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:19,879 Speaker 1: yield savings account. It's it's kind of like a high 727 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,839 Speaker 1: old savings account, but on steroids. So I just need 728 00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,879 Speaker 1: more and more stock exposure and that maybe those people 729 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,880 Speaker 1: and when you look at like the last fifteen years, 730 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,160 Speaker 1: returns have been better than average, and we have had 731 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,560 Speaker 1: fewer downturns like an extended bowle market. Did we just 732 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,880 Speaker 1: get used to something that isn't the norm. 733 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,240 Speaker 3: I don't think we necessarily got used to it, because 734 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,000 Speaker 3: we had the Great Financial Crisis, we had the COVID crisis, 735 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,400 Speaker 3: we had a painful, painful twenty twenty two where it 736 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:49,719 Speaker 3: felt like no market was going up, and in reality 737 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,600 Speaker 3: a lot of tangible investment investments were going up with inflation, 738 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,080 Speaker 3: but stocks and bonds weren't working and people felt that. 739 00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,960 Speaker 3: So I wouldn't necessarily think that's the case. I think 740 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,160 Speaker 3: what it comes down to, at least over the past 741 00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 3: decade or so, has been a lack of options. Looking 742 00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 3: at a bank account, seeing that I'm talking about pre 743 00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,759 Speaker 3: twenty two here, looking at your bank account, seeing that 744 00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,200 Speaker 3: you're getting paid nothing on your savings account, you know, 745 00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,319 Speaker 3: looking at the fixed income market, seeing that you're getting 746 00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,200 Speaker 3: paid two percent to lend money for ten years down 747 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:22,640 Speaker 3: the road, and you know, wondering how you build wealth. 748 00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:27,040 Speaker 3: Oh and I'll add too, looking outside of markets into 749 00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:31,160 Speaker 3: a corporate world where you know, wage gains were pithy, 750 00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:36,000 Speaker 3: were awful because the incentives were all off after the 751 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,480 Speaker 3: Great Financial Crisis, and a lot of companies were they 752 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,120 Speaker 3: felt like they were in survival mode. They weren't necessarily 753 00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,680 Speaker 3: investing back in their employees, they were, they were paying 754 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 3: more attention to their shareholders, especially as that worked over time. 755 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 3: So I mean, picture a millennial investor, Picture you and 756 00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:54,520 Speaker 3: me sitting here wondering what our options are to build 757 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 3: our wealth and seeing the stock market and basically nothing else. 758 00:37:58,040 --> 00:37:59,759 Speaker 1: Then yeah, it feels like the only game in town. 759 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. And that's that's to a t what Wall 760 00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:07,080 Speaker 3: Street was saying back in the mid twenty tens. Stocks 761 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,839 Speaker 3: are the only game in town, and they were right. 762 00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,400 Speaker 3: I think we're seeing the other side of that. And again, 763 00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,000 Speaker 3: like I said, not necessarily a bad thing. I think 764 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:20,080 Speaker 3: it led to some skewed incentives. But yeah, we had 765 00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,560 Speaker 3: to lean on the stock market. That's you know, that's 766 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,280 Speaker 3: really what we grew up with in our teens and twenties. 767 00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:30,080 Speaker 3: And to a certain extent, that's good because you know, 768 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,560 Speaker 3: like I said, it's been it's been really hard to 769 00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,640 Speaker 3: invest for way too long. But on the other hand, 770 00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,279 Speaker 3: I think now we have some options. Wage growth is 771 00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:43,000 Speaker 3: finally healthy, especially especially for you know, lower level jobs. 772 00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 3: We have bonds that are actually paying out yield. We 773 00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,359 Speaker 3: have savings account rates that you know, hover between three 774 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 3: and four percent above inflation, and you know, we're like, Wow, 775 00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:55,600 Speaker 3: this is a whole new world. I don't I don't 776 00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:56,920 Speaker 3: really know what to do with it, but I do 777 00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 3: know the stock market works, so maybe let me lean 778 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:03,799 Speaker 3: into that. And that's not always that's not always a 779 00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:09,000 Speaker 3: quick immediate source of dopamine or help or gains. 780 00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no, I get that. What do you have 781 00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 2: an opinion on the fire movement? This is kind of 782 00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 2: a somewhat weird pivot, but I mean, I guess you 783 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:19,600 Speaker 2: mentioned the twenty tens as well, and I'm just like 784 00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:22,000 Speaker 2: something else that kind of was birthed in the twenty tens. 785 00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,280 Speaker 2: That makes me think of all the folks who are like, oh, 786 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,720 Speaker 2: the fire movement, financial independence, retiring early. Do you have 787 00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,160 Speaker 2: an opinion there? Do you think that most folks who 788 00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,480 Speaker 2: ascribe to the fire movement are equipped to handle prolonged 789 00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:35,920 Speaker 2: downturns You mentioned twenty twenty two when basically like no 790 00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:40,240 Speaker 2: market was doing well in twenty twenty two. The view 791 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,000 Speaker 2: towards work and being productive in society, i'd love to 792 00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:44,560 Speaker 2: get your thoughts on fire. 793 00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:48,799 Speaker 3: So I think the fire movement is interesting. It's not 794 00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,279 Speaker 3: a path that I'm going down. I love what I do. 795 00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,480 Speaker 3: I actually find a lot of value in my work. 796 00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,600 Speaker 3: It lights me up. I have a passion around it, 797 00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:01,160 Speaker 3: and I'm really lucky to feel that way. I think there. 798 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,200 Speaker 3: I think that there has been a little bit of 799 00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:07,560 Speaker 3: a boost to that movement just because markets have done 800 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:11,520 Speaker 3: so well, and I'm not sure enough people realize the 801 00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,400 Speaker 3: reality of living on your portfolio and how painful it 802 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,120 Speaker 3: can be when stocks are selling off and bonds are 803 00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:20,960 Speaker 3: selling off, which unfortunately is the scenario that some of 804 00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:26,160 Speaker 3: us are in right now. I generally advise against looking 805 00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,759 Speaker 3: to extremes. I feel like fire is a bit of 806 00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,280 Speaker 3: an extreme decision, and if it's if it's a decision 807 00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,279 Speaker 3: that works for you, that's great. I'm not sure it 808 00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,880 Speaker 3: works for a bunch of different people. Even though we 809 00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:38,680 Speaker 3: can all I think at times we can all agree 810 00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:41,120 Speaker 3: that it would be fun to retire and travel forever 811 00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,880 Speaker 3: and you know, live off of your portfolio. 812 00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,160 Speaker 1: It also might get old. Let's be honest. 813 00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:47,560 Speaker 3: I worry about that. 814 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:48,880 Speaker 1: Who can travel forever? 815 00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:50,840 Speaker 3: I mean, like you said, I'm type and anxious. I 816 00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,200 Speaker 3: was in Costa Rica for a week and I had 817 00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,520 Speaker 3: a great time, but towards the end, I was like, Man, 818 00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,880 Speaker 3: I really miss my normal life. I miss the routine. 819 00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,399 Speaker 3: And I think a lot of people realize once they 820 00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:04,919 Speaker 3: retire at any age, that that routine and that sense 821 00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:08,439 Speaker 3: of purpose is really important. I actually think Coast Fire 822 00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:11,520 Speaker 3: is really interesting. I learned about Coast Fire about a 823 00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:16,200 Speaker 3: year ago, and it's the movement where you don't retire immediately, 824 00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,360 Speaker 3: but what you know is that you could live off 825 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,120 Speaker 3: your portfolio if you have to, if you didn't contribute 826 00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,759 Speaker 3: any more to your portfolio, and you have like a 827 00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,840 Speaker 3: retirement age ahead of you that you're aiming for. I 828 00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,239 Speaker 3: think that's a really cool psychological hack, and I think 829 00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,680 Speaker 3: it's more realistic for the majority of people who do 830 00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:34,880 Speaker 3: learn about the Fire movement. 831 00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:36,439 Speaker 1: Do you think do you think some of the people 832 00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:41,000 Speaker 1: in the Fire movement maybe made rosy projections of future 833 00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:46,560 Speaker 1: stock market increases based on historical realities, based on recency bias, 834 00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:50,000 Speaker 1: and that maybe especially when you look at predictions from 835 00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,960 Speaker 1: places like Vanguard and they're saying over the next decade, 836 00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,319 Speaker 1: returns are going to be pretty tepid. Do you think 837 00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:59,560 Speaker 1: some of those folks might find that the ways they 838 00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:03,600 Speaker 1: assumed their portfolio would perform, well, maybe it doesn't perform 839 00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:06,120 Speaker 1: in that way, and they're left in a much more 840 00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:06,920 Speaker 1: tenuous situation. 841 00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,239 Speaker 3: I'm sure there's a little bit of that, because you know, 842 00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:13,799 Speaker 3: we all make different assumptions. I don't love the forecasts 843 00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:15,759 Speaker 3: that come out of the Vanguards and Goldman Sachs's of 844 00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,320 Speaker 3: the world where they say, you know, we think stocks 845 00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,080 Speaker 3: will make X over the next ten years. Like that's 846 00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:23,160 Speaker 3: as good of a guess as me licking my finger 847 00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:24,719 Speaker 3: and sticking it in the air and trying to tell 848 00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:27,240 Speaker 3: you where the wimbile blow. It's not. It is based 849 00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,440 Speaker 3: on some math, but it's it's ultimately marketing, right, It's 850 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:34,200 Speaker 3: ultimately getting an interesting opinion out there for an audience 851 00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,759 Speaker 3: that you're trying to reach. That's all it is. It's 852 00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:40,799 Speaker 3: not a great assumption to go off of. I don't 853 00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:42,680 Speaker 3: know if you remember, but Goldman actually put out a 854 00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,600 Speaker 3: report six months ago or so where they said that 855 00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,920 Speaker 3: they think and I'm I'm not sure which stock index 856 00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,319 Speaker 3: they targeted, but they said stock they think stocks will 857 00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,800 Speaker 3: return an average of three percent over the next ten years. 858 00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:56,920 Speaker 3: And I had so many friends and family ask me 859 00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,440 Speaker 3: about that report. I think because there was a tangible 860 00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:02,640 Speaker 3: number in it and it was Goldman, it got a 861 00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:06,120 Speaker 3: lot of news pick up. But I was like, are 862 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,919 Speaker 3: you kidding me? Like what makes you think that even 863 00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:10,799 Speaker 3: Goldman has a crystal ball and can see into the 864 00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:14,280 Speaker 3: future and where markets are going. I think the twenty 865 00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,319 Speaker 3: tens are the perfect example of you know, why forecasts 866 00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:23,359 Speaker 3: are forecasts are ultimately bunk. You know, they they're good 867 00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:25,920 Speaker 3: at teaching you how to think differently, Like, sure, they're 868 00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:30,160 Speaker 3: good at spurring discussion, but I think you can, you know, 869 00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:34,160 Speaker 3: fall on the wrong side of forecasts that are too 870 00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,719 Speaker 3: high and forecasts that are too low, and generally it 871 00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:39,759 Speaker 3: makes sense to be a little more conservative in your 872 00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,919 Speaker 3: own portfolio, Like you can't assume, you can't assume twenty 873 00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,240 Speaker 3: percent returns forever more and more. I hope that happens, 874 00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:49,520 Speaker 3: but I don't think that's very likely. But at the 875 00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,680 Speaker 3: same time, I don't think it serves you to go 876 00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:58,400 Speaker 3: to conservative or to listen to the more pessimistic forecasts 877 00:43:58,400 --> 00:43:59,839 Speaker 3: around that, because nobody really knows. 878 00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,040 Speaker 1: Don't listen to the pestimist, listen to optimistic. Cali I 879 00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:06,719 Speaker 1: like that. You have just a few more questions to 880 00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,279 Speaker 1: get to with you, Cali, including with let's talk about stagflation, 881 00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,000 Speaker 1: a term we're hearing more and more about. We'll get 882 00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:12,920 Speaker 1: to that right after this. 883 00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,200 Speaker 2: We're back from the break with Callie Cox. 884 00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:23,840 Speaker 1: Cali. 885 00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,640 Speaker 2: Something you said before the break, you said it can 886 00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,719 Speaker 2: be painful to live off of your portfolio. And I 887 00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:31,960 Speaker 2: think one of the things you're speaking to there is 888 00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:36,080 Speaker 2: like the reality of knowing that the numbers point to 889 00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:40,279 Speaker 2: of fairly rosy future even with conservative estimates, right like 890 00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:44,000 Speaker 2: not even the most aggressive expecting the most aggressive returns. 891 00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,760 Speaker 2: There's a difference between knowing that, but then the lived 892 00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:51,600 Speaker 2: reality of seeing, you know, maybe objectively dumb decisions being 893 00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,279 Speaker 2: made on a pop when it comes to policy and 894 00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:57,200 Speaker 2: how that impacts our government. Is there some sort of 895 00:44:57,640 --> 00:44:59,480 Speaker 2: I don't know, like rule of thumb or some sort 896 00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,919 Speaker 2: of test that folks can put on themselves to help 897 00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:06,160 Speaker 2: them to analyze whether the decisions that they're making in 898 00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:09,920 Speaker 2: regards to their portfolio is more of an emotional knee 899 00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:16,320 Speaker 2: jerk reaction versus them trying to reevaluate the new basically 900 00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:16,760 Speaker 2: the new. 901 00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:17,359 Speaker 1: Rules of the game. 902 00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:20,879 Speaker 2: Right, Like, there's a difference between just like without even 903 00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:24,000 Speaker 2: looking anything, just completely reacting, versus saying, Okay, well, actually 904 00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:26,680 Speaker 2: maybe I can't handle this type of risk and what 905 00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:30,040 Speaker 2: I need to do here is rebalance my portfolio or 906 00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:32,720 Speaker 2: lean a little bit more in a conservative direction. 907 00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:34,640 Speaker 1: Is there a way to know whether. 908 00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,919 Speaker 2: Or not somebody is making the moves that they're making 909 00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:37,720 Speaker 2: for the right reason. 910 00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:40,640 Speaker 3: I feel like I could talk about this specific question 911 00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,400 Speaker 3: for an hour plus, but I'll try to boil it 912 00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,480 Speaker 3: down because this is actually giving me an idea for 913 00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:46,120 Speaker 3: a newsletter. 914 00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:46,680 Speaker 2: All right. 915 00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:50,080 Speaker 3: I think it depends. It depends the worst answer ever, 916 00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:53,319 Speaker 3: it depends on who you are, and I think the 917 00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:58,400 Speaker 3: test is different for everybody. But some general guidance I 918 00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:01,680 Speaker 3: would give around that is how quickly you make a decision. 919 00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,560 Speaker 3: So let's say a bad headline crosses the tape, another 920 00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,920 Speaker 3: tariff headline, and you know it feels painful, and you say, ah, 921 00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,520 Speaker 3: I feel like I should sell stocks. If you feel 922 00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:16,360 Speaker 3: that reaction immediately, you probably can't trust it. And I 923 00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,080 Speaker 3: know that's a hard thing to say, because I want 924 00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,320 Speaker 3: I want people to feel like they can trust themselves. 925 00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:25,319 Speaker 3: But there's a difference between between a reaction and a 926 00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:29,680 Speaker 3: sound decision and when when both of them are overlapping, 927 00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,239 Speaker 3: or when the sound decision comes quickly, I think you 928 00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:35,480 Speaker 3: need to question it at the very least. Again, I 929 00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:38,080 Speaker 3: like to lean on numbers, So when I have a 930 00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:41,560 Speaker 3: nicky type of anxious reaction, I always go back to 931 00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:45,319 Speaker 3: my numbers. I remind myself that, Okay, my portfolio is 932 00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,640 Speaker 3: this size. X percent is in stocks, and this is 933 00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,959 Speaker 3: why X percent is in bonds, and this is why 934 00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:53,719 Speaker 3: X percent is in crypto. This is why, and that 935 00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:57,600 Speaker 3: usually writes my path. But I know that I eat, sleep, 936 00:46:57,600 --> 00:47:00,000 Speaker 3: breathe this stuff, so it's a little it's a little 937 00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:02,160 Speaker 3: little bit easier for me. I think about this a lot. 938 00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,920 Speaker 3: The other thing I'd throw out there is, you know, 939 00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,319 Speaker 3: there are certain processes that work for different people, but 940 00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:13,320 Speaker 3: the process is the important part when you have those feelings. 941 00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:17,520 Speaker 3: Knowing how to center yourself, So even if it's like 942 00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:21,200 Speaker 3: touching the table in front of you, or sipping a 943 00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,439 Speaker 3: cup of hot tea or touching grass or something, knowing 944 00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:27,200 Speaker 3: how to get back into yourself and then calmly evaluating 945 00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:30,239 Speaker 3: what's going on is really smart. And knowing what that 946 00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:33,440 Speaker 3: process is for you is very important. So you can 947 00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,399 Speaker 3: get to a point that you can think through this 948 00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:40,200 Speaker 3: sound decision that you're about to make. And again it's 949 00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:44,359 Speaker 3: not easy. But everybody talks about having an investing plan. 950 00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:48,200 Speaker 3: This is when an investing plan is really important. I 951 00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:52,800 Speaker 3: invest when I get my paycheck and maybe not outside 952 00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:54,080 Speaker 3: of it, although I think you could be a little 953 00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:56,880 Speaker 3: fluid with that. And I will put X percent of 954 00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,080 Speaker 3: my money into stocks, ex percent of my money into bonds, 955 00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:01,600 Speaker 3: ex percent of my money into crypto if that's suitable 956 00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:05,760 Speaker 3: for you, and knowing when you'll eventually need that money 957 00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:07,920 Speaker 3: so you can make a plan to take it out. 958 00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:11,480 Speaker 1: So we're hearing the term stagflation thrown around a lot 959 00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,560 Speaker 1: these days, which is a throwback to the nineteen seventies 960 00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:16,279 Speaker 1: when none of us were born. 961 00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:18,560 Speaker 3: Are you saying you know how old I am. 962 00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,040 Speaker 2: Well, you referred to us as millennials, that we are 963 00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:24,680 Speaker 2: barely millennials, Cali, So that tells me that you are 964 00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:26,479 Speaker 2: younger than that's true. 965 00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:27,359 Speaker 3: I did tap my hand there. 966 00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:29,720 Speaker 1: So stackflation is the thing that only our parents remember. 967 00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:32,880 Speaker 1: But is that something you're truly worried about? Is that 968 00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:36,279 Speaker 1: something we can or should be preparing for? How would 969 00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:36,800 Speaker 1: we react? 970 00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:39,840 Speaker 3: I'm worrying about it more. I wouldn't say that I'm 971 00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:43,120 Speaker 3: certain it will happen. I'm certain nothing will happen. Nobody 972 00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:46,000 Speaker 3: knows what the future holds, but I worry. So I'll 973 00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,480 Speaker 3: explain what stackplation is first, and then I'll talk about 974 00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,839 Speaker 3: where we are now. So stackflation is this economic phenomenon 975 00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:55,920 Speaker 3: where unemployment is going higher, people are losing their jobs. 976 00:48:56,200 --> 00:49:00,320 Speaker 3: Prices are also going higher, so inflation and economic growth 977 00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:06,640 Speaker 3: is stagnant. And those three conditions together are really hard 978 00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,680 Speaker 3: to reach, especially these days. But when you do get there, 979 00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,680 Speaker 3: like in the nineteen seventies, it can be incredibly painful 980 00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:15,319 Speaker 3: because when we think about the economy, we think about 981 00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,719 Speaker 3: it in terms of affordability. How much money am I making? 982 00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:21,239 Speaker 3: What can I afford? In a period of sagflation. You 983 00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,840 Speaker 3: fall behind so quickly when it comes to affordability, especially 984 00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,600 Speaker 3: if you lose your job and if prices are moving higher, 985 00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,040 Speaker 3: you can't afford things and you're not making money. That's 986 00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:34,600 Speaker 3: the worst trench to be in. We're not broadly, we're 987 00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,600 Speaker 3: not there yet right now, and I think the bar 988 00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,480 Speaker 3: is really high to get there for a few really 989 00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:43,799 Speaker 3: nerdy reasons, but mainly because the FED exists and it 990 00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:46,840 Speaker 3: has this dual mandate this two part job where it 991 00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,719 Speaker 3: has to watch inflation and it has to watch the 992 00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:51,880 Speaker 3: job market. And I think the Fed's hands are tied 993 00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:55,360 Speaker 3: right now. They're not sure what side to focus on more. 994 00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,600 Speaker 3: But if we do get further into this and there 995 00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:00,960 Speaker 3: is some economic damage, I think the side to focus 996 00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,120 Speaker 3: on will become abundantly clear and they'll be able to 997 00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:06,520 Speaker 3: do something about it. Something that a lot of people 998 00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,680 Speaker 3: don't know is that the Fed's dual mandate actually came 999 00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:11,080 Speaker 3: out of the nineteen seventies and the stagflation that we 1000 00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,960 Speaker 3: saw in the seventies that was ultimately that ultimately went 1001 00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,719 Speaker 3: into the eighties and was kind of smothered out by 1002 00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:22,200 Speaker 3: Paul Volker. Congress actually passed an act after that that 1003 00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,400 Speaker 3: set the Fed's dual mandate. So we have this like 1004 00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,600 Speaker 3: natural stabilizer there that wasn't there in the nineteen seventies. 1005 00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:30,520 Speaker 3: So I say all this to say, stagflation I think 1006 00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,200 Speaker 3: is still far away. You might feel inklings of it 1007 00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:38,080 Speaker 3: here and there, but the true conditions of awful stagflation 1008 00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:41,280 Speaker 3: that affects that affects a large swath of the population, 1009 00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:43,279 Speaker 3: are still far away. And I think that there are 1010 00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:44,240 Speaker 3: some counterbalances. 1011 00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:46,640 Speaker 2: Nice, awesome, Well, CALLI, thank you so much for taking 1012 00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:49,640 Speaker 2: the time to speak with us, everything from trading on 1013 00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:54,400 Speaker 2: your phone to stagflation, retirement finding, calm touch. I like 1014 00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:56,640 Speaker 2: how you're just even touching the table in front of you. 1015 00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,279 Speaker 3: I like sipping hot tea. That's actually why I brought 1016 00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,680 Speaker 3: it up. When I feel anxious, I get a cup 1017 00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,880 Speaker 3: of tea and I just sip it and I meditate. 1018 00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,719 Speaker 3: And I think sounds corny, but that's what I do. 1019 00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:09,280 Speaker 1: No, I think it like what you pointed to earlier, 1020 00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:10,400 Speaker 1: you need out of that is knitting. 1021 00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:13,839 Speaker 3: Now you're saying I'm old. 1022 00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:15,320 Speaker 1: Okay, then you're my grandma. 1023 00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,600 Speaker 2: You will be ready for a retirement at that point, Calli. 1024 00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:19,920 Speaker 2: But that's how we know. Yeah, No, seriously, we really 1025 00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,680 Speaker 2: appreciate taking the time, and of course we'll point folks 1026 00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:27,440 Speaker 2: over to your substack optimistic CALLI. But yeah, thank you 1027 00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:28,720 Speaker 2: for hanging out with us today. 1028 00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:30,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks for having me. This was a lot of 1029 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,799 Speaker 3: fun and hopefully the next conversation we have will be 1030 00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:33,960 Speaker 3: a little cheerier. 1031 00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:39,200 Speaker 1: Awesome, Thanks Cally. All Right, Matt, good convo with Calli, 1032 00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,760 Speaker 1: and uh yeah, a lot of good information and hopefully 1033 00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:44,960 Speaker 1: just all about investing, I know, and hopefully just some 1034 00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:49,640 Speaker 1: a calming effect for the people out there who are 1035 00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,279 Speaker 1: worried about the future. And let's be honest, it's hard. 1036 00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:55,480 Speaker 1: It's hard not to be at least somewhat worried about 1037 00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:56,000 Speaker 1: the future, a. 1038 00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:58,839 Speaker 2: Little bit anxious. Yeah, and wonder how much hot tea 1039 00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:03,280 Speaker 2: Cali drinking these days. She's like, oh, I've noticed my 1040 00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,719 Speaker 2: my hot tea intake spiked significantly over the past three 1041 00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:07,560 Speaker 2: months exactly. 1042 00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:10,080 Speaker 1: But still there's a lot of reasons to be calm 1043 00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,719 Speaker 1: and to be excited about the future too. So what 1044 00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:14,160 Speaker 1: was your big takeaway from this combo? 1045 00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,440 Speaker 2: Well, I guess speaking to that, it's all about And 1046 00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,680 Speaker 2: something she said was to find comfort with whatever plan 1047 00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:23,160 Speaker 2: it is that you as an individual have come up with. 1048 00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,000 Speaker 2: And you know, she said, write it down, she said, 1049 00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:27,600 Speaker 2: she said, having hot tea that's a part of her plan. Like, 1050 00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:29,600 Speaker 2: I would love to see that written down somewhere as 1051 00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:33,239 Speaker 2: part of her you know, her twelfth step process to 1052 00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:35,040 Speaker 2: talk herself down from the ledge if she's feeling a 1053 00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:38,120 Speaker 2: little bit anxious about the markets, and you know how 1054 00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:42,480 Speaker 2: her investments are doing. But you find that comfort, but simultaneously, 1055 00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:46,160 Speaker 2: you don't abandon the overall plan that you know is 1056 00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,600 Speaker 2: going to lead to your financial future. Like it's a 1057 00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,360 Speaker 2: it's like our own personal forget the FED, this is 1058 00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:53,920 Speaker 2: our own personal dual mandate that we have to somehow 1059 00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,560 Speaker 2: find a way to navigate, to find comfort, to not 1060 00:52:56,600 --> 00:53:00,640 Speaker 2: freak out at every headline or tweet or truth that 1061 00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,520 Speaker 2: gets pushed out there, to be able to stay the 1062 00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:06,560 Speaker 2: course and maybe be able to respond thoughtfully, but at 1063 00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:08,680 Speaker 2: the same time knowing that over the long haul, this 1064 00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:09,759 Speaker 2: is this is what we gotta do. 1065 00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:12,359 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I like that a lot, and that that 1066 00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:14,640 Speaker 1: involves having a plan, right, So yeah, it's a good 1067 00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:16,759 Speaker 1: idea if you don't have one, to have one and 1068 00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:18,840 Speaker 1: to write it out so that you know what to 1069 00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:21,080 Speaker 1: do first, that you're not just like knee jerk making 1070 00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:23,600 Speaker 1: bad decisions because you're emotional. And I get it. It's 1071 00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:25,879 Speaker 1: it's hard not to be emotional sometimes, so you need 1072 00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:28,400 Speaker 1: the plan to help you avoid the worst impulses. I 1073 00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:31,480 Speaker 1: think my big takeaway was when she was like, I 1074 00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:34,480 Speaker 1: don't really pay attention to those predictions to the pessimist, 1075 00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:36,680 Speaker 1: and it's really hard when there's like a name like 1076 00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,160 Speaker 1: Vanguard or Golden Sacks attached to it, and. 1077 00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:42,040 Speaker 2: You're like JP Morgan, right, Jamie Diamond again, here he 1078 00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:42,640 Speaker 2: goes all. 1079 00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:45,680 Speaker 1: Right, yeah, And all I can think sometimes when I 1080 00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,479 Speaker 1: read those is like, there's a pool of highly paid 1081 00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:50,759 Speaker 1: people who wear much nicer suits than I do, because 1082 00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,160 Speaker 1: I literally have one suit that I don't wear very frequently. 1083 00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:56,160 Speaker 1: And my assumption is like, they know more than I do. 1084 00:53:56,520 --> 00:53:59,360 Speaker 1: I'm an idiot by comparison to the hive mind that 1085 00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:02,440 Speaker 1: they've got going on in these fancy New York office buildings. 1086 00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:05,600 Speaker 1: But that's not even true, that's not actually true. It 1087 00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:08,479 Speaker 1: feels like that's true, but it's not. And so those 1088 00:54:08,520 --> 00:54:14,319 Speaker 1: predictions pessimism also sells like it's easier to trust somebody 1089 00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:16,719 Speaker 1: who has a dour prediction than someone who's like, I 1090 00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:18,640 Speaker 1: think things are going to be great. You just sound 1091 00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:20,400 Speaker 1: like an idiot when you say I think things are 1092 00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:22,520 Speaker 1: going to be great. But the truth is so much 1093 00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:24,759 Speaker 1: of the time, especially when it comes to markets, things 1094 00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:28,160 Speaker 1: are pretty good. So maybe we should listen to the 1095 00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:31,960 Speaker 1: optimists like Callie a little bit more less to the pessimists. 1096 00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:34,319 Speaker 1: It's not that bad things can't happen, and we should 1097 00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,479 Speaker 1: be prepared for those things, but it's also hey, maybe 1098 00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,200 Speaker 1: maybe don't assume that only bad things are in our future, 1099 00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:41,800 Speaker 1: because there's a lot of good stuff coming around the 1100 00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:42,200 Speaker 1: bend too. 1101 00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:44,560 Speaker 2: That's right, man, all right. The beer that you and 1102 00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,640 Speaker 2: I got to enjoy during this episode was called Pineapple 1103 00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:52,480 Speaker 2: Vanilla Milkshake IPA by whistle Hoop Brewing Company. What did 1104 00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:54,080 Speaker 2: you think of this one, buddy, I'm gonna say this 1105 00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:54,760 Speaker 2: one was okay. 1106 00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:55,319 Speaker 1: It was okay. 1107 00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:59,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. Yeah, and those one was not 1108 00:54:59,040 --> 00:54:59,600 Speaker 2: my favorite. 1109 00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:02,960 Speaker 1: I picked this one up at the Physical Brewery in 1110 00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:06,759 Speaker 1: in Ashville. The Physical Brewery really cool, A great place 1111 00:55:06,760 --> 00:55:08,480 Speaker 1: to take kids. I've into this place. Yeah, they got 1112 00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:11,800 Speaker 1: little soccer nets and a little mini miniature golf course. 1113 00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,560 Speaker 2: So it's called whistle Hop in the whole places train theme. Yeah, 1114 00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:16,279 Speaker 2: so there's literally a train car that you can get 1115 00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:19,360 Speaker 2: up in and we actually had the most fun sitting 1116 00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:21,440 Speaker 2: up what's it. I'm sure there's some train nerds out 1117 00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:22,880 Speaker 2: there where you like climb up the little ladder and 1118 00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:25,239 Speaker 2: you're kind of sitting on the second floors looking out 1119 00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:25,640 Speaker 2: the window. 1120 00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:27,200 Speaker 1: Love that did you get to sit out there? I 1121 00:55:27,239 --> 00:55:28,960 Speaker 1: don't know what that's called, but yeah, they loved it. 1122 00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,560 Speaker 2: It's a it's a cool feature of a mode of 1123 00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:34,440 Speaker 2: transportation that we no longer take advantage of. But the 1124 00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:38,520 Speaker 2: hackers also go to Europe with the actual beer. Beer 1125 00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:41,160 Speaker 2: was left something to be desired. Yeah, and I had 1126 00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:44,360 Speaker 2: a good sour beer when I was there that I enjoyed. 1127 00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:45,840 Speaker 1: This one I just didn't enjoy as much. And I 1128 00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:48,080 Speaker 1: guess the pineapple maybe felt a little fake to. 1129 00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:51,040 Speaker 2: Me, a little heavy handed. And the milkshake I pas 1130 00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:53,480 Speaker 2: is a style that I've never been the biggest fan 1131 00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:56,240 Speaker 2: of personally. Yeah, I was trying to go into it 1132 00:55:56,280 --> 00:56:00,480 Speaker 2: with an optimistic forecast, but I was mo even wrong. 1133 00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:03,120 Speaker 1: It happens. It happens. You can't win them all. And 1134 00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:07,080 Speaker 1: still cool brewery, definitely worth visiting, absolutely worth checking out, 1135 00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:09,400 Speaker 1: and good beers that I enjoyed my other beers, but 1136 00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:12,000 Speaker 1: this one not my favorite. All Right, that's gonna do it. 1137 00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:15,399 Speaker 1: For this episode. We'll link to Calli's blog and some 1138 00:56:15,440 --> 00:56:18,359 Speaker 1: of the other resources we mentioned on this episode up 1139 00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:20,200 Speaker 1: in the show notes at how to money dot com. 1140 00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:24,160 Speaker 2: You know it, buddy, So until next time, best Friends Out, 1141 00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:25,040 Speaker 2: Best Friends Out.