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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

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Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. We are waiting for the

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Speaker 1: Fed Chair J. Powell testimony that will begin after the

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Speaker 1: opening statements on Capitol Hill. The Fed Chair going to

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Speaker 1: tell Congress really that it's a little bit uncertain the outlook,

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Speaker 1: but of course we're getting in data day by day.

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Speaker 1: Retail sales were up seventeen points seven percent, better than expected,

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Speaker 1: but down six point one percent year over year. I

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Speaker 1: think that's important to stress things like auto sales surge.

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Speaker 1: I guess people are not going to be in public

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Speaker 1: transportation as much these days, so that may account for

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Speaker 1: some of that. Let's see what the effect on the

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Speaker 1: markets is of the data, but also of the feds

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Speaker 1: moves yesterday, and bring in Dave Wilson, Bloomberg Stocks editor.

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Speaker 1: I mean, those are all pieces of the puzzle. V

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Speaker 1: You no question when you look at the apartment store chains,

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Speaker 1: and you see Cole's, Macy's, and Nordstrom all up more

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Speaker 1: than ten percent of early trading. It tells you the

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Speaker 1: retail sales figures are getting people's attention even beyond the

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Speaker 1: economic data though, even beyond monetary policy, which Chairman pal

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Speaker 1: is going to be talking about at length. You know, momentarily,

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Speaker 1: you have to look at this story that we came

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Speaker 1: out with overnight, uh, that the Trump administration is working

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Speaker 1: on a trillion dollar infrastructure proposal. Now something like this

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Speaker 1: has been kicking around literally for years, but at a

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Speaker 1: time when people are looking for more physical stimulus, UH,

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Speaker 1: got to bolster the economy here. Uh, let's just say

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Speaker 1: this report is getting people's attention. And whether you talk

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Speaker 1: about makers of construction equipment, uh, construction materials, you know,

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Speaker 1: the actual builders, the engineering firms, even a company like

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Speaker 1: United Rentals which rents construction equipment. All these stocks at

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Speaker 1: the forefront of today's game. So you know, the idea

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Speaker 1: that maybe there is in fact going to be an

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Speaker 1: infrastructure program in the end getting people's attention. So there's

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Speaker 1: a pretty broad based advance going on in stocks at

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Speaker 1: this point, and those particular companies affected by the infrastructure

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Speaker 1: proposal are a big piece of it. Bloomberg Stocks editor, So,

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Speaker 1: Dave Wilson, I'm thinking about here when we think about

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Speaker 1: the retail sales number here, I guess one of the

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Speaker 1: issues for a lot of folks is how much is

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Speaker 1: this is real kind of just pent up demand, kind

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Speaker 1: of call it natural demand, pent up demand versus you know,

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Speaker 1: the the effects of the stimulus, which came pretty early,

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Speaker 1: you know, on average, for for for some folks into

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Speaker 1: their checking account. How much is the market trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out what's natural pent up demand and what's kind

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Speaker 1: of fiscal stimulus. Well, for the moment, they're just happy,

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Speaker 1: they're there's some kinds of demand. I mean, give what

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Speaker 1: these retailers have been through the last couple of months,

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Speaker 1: and there's no doubt there's going to be a lot

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Speaker 1: of back and forth in terms of where did things

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Speaker 1: go from here. You have the extra unemployment benefits that

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Speaker 1: are due to expire at the end of July, and

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Speaker 1: there's focused on that piece of the puzzle in terms

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Speaker 1: of what it may mean for consumers willingness to spend

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Speaker 1: down the line. You know, those checks are certainly part

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Speaker 1: of that, uh put it all together. You know, people

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Speaker 1: are happy enough. It would seem from the way the

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Speaker 1: retail stocks are performing with what they saw in terms

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Speaker 1: of the big picture, because like all the retailers in

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Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred are higher at the moment, at

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Speaker 1: least the ones that are in the retail index. So

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Speaker 1: you know, take it and run with it and we

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Speaker 1: see what happens as things unfold from here. And Dave, yeah,

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, like nords From is up twelve percent,

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Speaker 1: It's been a long time since norths From has scene

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Speaker 1: that kind of a move, but also Norwegian clues Line,

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Speaker 1: Carnival and so on United Rentals. Dave, what about the

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Speaker 1: bond market? How much is that impacting things? Because the

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Speaker 1: Fed did say it was going to buy old swath

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Speaker 1: of corporate bonds yesterday. Well, that incentivize people to issue more,

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Speaker 1: and I mean that that is a real question. We

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Speaker 1: are seeing a whole lot of companies UH moving to

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Speaker 1: the bond market as a way to kind of shore

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Speaker 1: up their finances. If you look at high yield debt specifically,

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Speaker 1: I mean we had to report out that Americans talking

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Speaker 1: about a high yield debt issue with City Group and

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Speaker 1: it would be backed by things like their airport slots

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Speaker 1: and gates, so they're trying whatever they can to raise

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Speaker 1: money and kind of keep things going. And when you

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Speaker 1: look at the airlines, they're certainly UH having some pretty

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Speaker 1: substantial gains. And today's trading American peven for example, of

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Speaker 1: eight point three percent at the moment. So you know,

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Speaker 1: the idea that the FED is going to be there

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Speaker 1: to you know, backstop the investment grades side of the market, well,

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Speaker 1: at the very least it's being received. As you know,

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Speaker 1: here comes some more support for markets from the Central Bank,

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Speaker 1: and that that's tended to go over well the past

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Speaker 1: several weeks. Block Citor Davilson, thank you so much for that.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate that. On this strong opening to the market today,

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Speaker 1: on the backs of the strong retail sales. We are

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Speaker 1: waiting UH FED Chairman j Palen just moments with his

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Speaker 1: uh comments and Dana in Washington get a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a preview. We welcome Ira Jersey, chief US interest

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Speaker 1: rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. So, Ira, we're seeing some

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Speaker 1: of the headlines across the Bloomberg terminal here seems like

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Speaker 1: status quo from Chairman pal Is that you read well,

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Speaker 1: the status quo given that he only spoke to us

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Speaker 1: last week after the meeting. He's reiterated a lot of

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Speaker 1: the same things. Right, They're going to keep interest rates

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Speaker 1: low for a very long time until the economy is

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Speaker 1: UH is on a good trajectory. They do think at

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Speaker 1: this point that inflation is going to be well below

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Speaker 1: their target for a long time. So until you wind

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Speaker 1: up seeing that type of activity where you see inflation

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Speaker 1: move a bit higher and growth on a steady trajectory. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think the Fed at this point is going to

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Speaker 1: still remain pretty cautious in its outlook. Why did the

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Speaker 1: Fed decide to buy corporate bonds across the board yesterday, Ira, Well,

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Speaker 1: it's basically just making good on a promise that it

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Speaker 1: made a couple of months ago, really when when the

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Speaker 1: Care's Act was first um But when the Care's Act

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Speaker 1: was first passed, the Treasury Department gave money to the

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Speaker 1: Fed in order to UH in order to buy corporate bonds,

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Speaker 1: and that was one of the things in their promise.

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Speaker 1: And if you recall Chair Powell said at the at

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Speaker 1: the April meeting, at the very end of April that

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Speaker 1: they would be buying and that one of the reasons

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Speaker 1: why they thought, why why the FED thought that the

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Speaker 1: corporate bond market had been doing so well and why

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Speaker 1: corporate bond spreads a tighten so much was because of

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Speaker 1: the implicit promise that the FED made so they would

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Speaker 1: be and be sure to enact that Now. I think

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Speaker 1: one of the challenges that they've had is that they

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Speaker 1: back then, had they been able to implement the program immediately,

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Speaker 1: there would have been bonds that you could have considered

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Speaker 1: cheap on certain measures or models that that you might

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Speaker 1: have for where the debt should be versus say the

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Speaker 1: survivability or or you know, making sure that this company

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Speaker 1: didn't go bankrupt or go out of business. Today, that's

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Speaker 1: much harder because the corporate bond spreads are so tight

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Speaker 1: that you can't do that. So they've created this new

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Speaker 1: index that they've done internally. Um so they could basically

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Speaker 1: maybe buy you know, huge swaths of the bond market

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Speaker 1: in order to uh in order to fulfill their pledge,

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Speaker 1: but at the same time nacho favoritism and also not

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Speaker 1: buy things that are you know, inherently very very rich,

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Speaker 1: which is what some people are saying. Some of the

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Speaker 1: investment grade debt certainly appears to be so Ira and

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Speaker 1: your you know, you've been covering this stuff a long time.

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Speaker 1: You've been following the Fed and the interest rate markets

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Speaker 1: for a long time. It's just the most creative, slash

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Speaker 1: aggressive that you've seen the Fed Reserve in terms of

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Speaker 1: its market participation. Well, it is, but it's also you know,

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Speaker 1: we've kind of blurred the lines a little bit. So

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Speaker 1: so in many ways. You know, when we talk about

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Speaker 1: things like the main street lending program or the corporate

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Speaker 1: bond buying program, the FED is implementing those programs, but

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Speaker 1: in reality, it's not only a FED program. It's really

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Speaker 1: a joint program between the Treasury Department and and the FED.

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Speaker 1: So while the Fed is levering up some of the equity,

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Speaker 1: the FED is not taking the first tranche of of

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Speaker 1: the fault risk. So let's say that the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: does buy two fifty billion dollars in corporate bonds and

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Speaker 1: you know, ten percent of them go um go bankrupts, right,

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Speaker 1: and there's there's tempers and the losses in that portfolio. Well,

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Speaker 1: ultimately the FED doesn't actually take that loss. The American

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Speaker 1: taxpayer does through the money that the Treasury Department gave

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Speaker 1: to the FED. So so we have to keep in

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Speaker 1: mind this isn't a FED program, this is a government program.

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Speaker 1: It's a government program, but it can be levered ten times.

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Speaker 1: Is there anything unsafe about any of this? Um? Well,

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Speaker 1: is there anything unsafe? That's a good question. I think

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Speaker 1: the answer is from the Fed's perspective, not really, because

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Speaker 1: if the FED took a lot of losses in these portfolios,

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Speaker 1: the Treasury Department would have to prop that up. Now,

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Speaker 1: could we be saying the government be involved in buying

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Speaker 1: things from the corporate market. I think that's more of

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Speaker 1: an existential question, and certainly one that is uh um,

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Speaker 1: predicated on your own political beliefs. I mean, the tenet

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Speaker 1: of central banking is to provide liquidity to markets, and

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Speaker 1: this is going a little bit beyond that, I think,

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Speaker 1: in my personal opinion. Um, But they also have to

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Speaker 1: do it because they said that they would, right, So,

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Speaker 1: so I think that's where they're going. Will they buy

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Speaker 1: two and fifty billion, I don't think so. I think

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Speaker 1: that the ultimately they'll buy far less than that, may

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Speaker 1: be closer to a hundred billion dollars in bombs, but um,

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Speaker 1: it's still at something that I think they feel they

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Speaker 1: need to do to fulfill that promise and not um

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Speaker 1: potentially widen credit spreads if they were to say that

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Speaker 1: we're not not buying any corporate bombs at all. So, boy,

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Speaker 1: the FED. It just from my perspective, I've been in

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Speaker 1: this game for thirty years, and it just seems this

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Speaker 1: FED has been I think the most aggressive and the

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Speaker 1: most creative that I can remember. Um, are there's tools

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Speaker 1: left in the toolbox for the FED that you think

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Speaker 1: should we see a you know, a second wave and

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Speaker 1: maybe even some lockdowns in the fall in the winter

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Speaker 1: that this FETE has or is it kind of used

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Speaker 1: most of its tools? Well, first, they could certainly expand

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Speaker 1: some of the tools that it's currently been using. But

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Speaker 1: but I think that a lot of anything that they

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Speaker 1: would they would do in a major way going forward

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Speaker 1: when it comes to UM things like you know, help

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Speaker 1: to the household sector that would have to come from

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Speaker 1: another fiscal stimulus plan where maybe the Federal Reserve administers

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Speaker 1: it or levers it up like they are the main

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Speaker 1: street lending program. Um. But but the other things that

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Speaker 1: they can do is things like yield curve control, so

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Speaker 1: they can say that if let's say, the Treasury Department

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Speaker 1: issuing so many bonds that there is a buyer strike.

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Speaker 1: The Federal Reserve could go out and say we're going

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Speaker 1: to um, you know, cap five year bond yields at

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Speaker 1: seventy five bases points at zero point. If they were

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Speaker 1: to do that, then they would wind up basically becoming

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Speaker 1: the backstop buyer all the time for that part of

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Speaker 1: the yield curve, and in doing so, they would definitely

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Speaker 1: signal that they would are keeping interest rates low for

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Speaker 1: a very long period of time. And you've heard a

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Speaker 1: couple of FED speakers talk about that and how something

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Speaker 1: like yields curve control might be implemented in the future,

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Speaker 1: and I think probably it will be. It's just a

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Speaker 1: matter of when. All right, our thanks to our Jersey

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Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Intelligence, Chief industrate Strategists. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and

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