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Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. This

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Speaker 1: is your host, not Chad Milman Darren Revel and we

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Speaker 1: are here with the usual Simon Hunter, professional gambler, and

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Speaker 1: we will have a great show today. If you're interested

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Speaker 1: in betting on the NFL Draft, You've come to the

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Speaker 1: right place because today Simon and I are joined by

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Speaker 1: a man fantasy prose recognized as the most accurate NFL

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Speaker 1: mock draft in the world, the definition of an NFL

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Speaker 1: mock draft maybn. He is Scott Smith. You can find

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Speaker 1: Scott's updated mock drafts all month long at the Action

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Speaker 1: network dot com and on the Action app. Scott Smith,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. I have to ask you about

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Speaker 1: betting on the draft in general. Obviously we know that

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Speaker 1: people try to be accurate. You're very very accurate. But

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Speaker 1: how much value is really when it comes to this

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Speaker 1: time of year to to bet and and what are

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Speaker 1: the greatest values in your opinion? Well, for me, I

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Speaker 1: think there's plenty of value when it comes to betting

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Speaker 1: the draft. Essentially, you want to look at a lot

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Speaker 1: of different odds makers and the bookmakers they're really all

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Speaker 1: just looking at mock drafts to make their lines. If

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Speaker 1: you can hit on a few of the key guys

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Speaker 1: and follow guys like Danni Jeremiah, Peter Seger some of

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Speaker 1: the other sharks in the industry. As far as setting

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Speaker 1: mock drafts and being accurate with it, I think you

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Speaker 1: can very much take advantage of some of these soft

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Speaker 1: lines that are being set by casinos and some of

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Speaker 1: these other websites. What would you say, is the the

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Speaker 1: year after year the safest bet? Is it some sort

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Speaker 1: of top five order? Is it? Obviously, you know, like

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence at minus eight gazillion, I'm not talking about that.

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Speaker 1: But as far as like a bet and a style,

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Speaker 1: is there one that year over year you like a

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Speaker 1: particularly a particular type of debt, the type of bets

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Speaker 1: that I usually like, and hitting on lines where they're

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Speaker 1: asking for a specific player at a specific position to

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Speaker 1: be drafted first. One of the ones that we bet

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Speaker 1: on heavily last year was for Clyde Edwards Hilaire to

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Speaker 1: be the first running back taking. We hit on that

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Speaker 1: one heavily last year. So it's lines like that that

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Speaker 1: I kind of looked to take advantage of, and especially

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Speaker 1: other lines where they have a specific pick marker for

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Speaker 1: a specific player to go over under a specific spot,

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Speaker 1: And like you talked about trying to cancel out all

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Speaker 1: the noise, and I imagine that must be the hardest

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Speaker 1: part of doing what you do with these mocks, because

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Speaker 1: you see things and something like me, I love watching

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Speaker 1: quarterback film. I love breaking down film. It's it's honestly

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Speaker 1: something I enjoyed doing. And when you hear stuff from

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Speaker 1: the media, you have to think yourself, these guys are

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Speaker 1: either trying to prop a guy up, their friends with

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Speaker 1: the agent who knows what the deal is. But some

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Speaker 1: things just don't line up with your own rankings. So

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Speaker 1: just like to take a year, the Bigger Mayfield year,

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Speaker 1: sham Donald was the odds on favorite for months to

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Speaker 1: be the number one pick with the Browns, and I

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Speaker 1: think it was two days before maybe a day before

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Speaker 1: Schefter tweeted out a whole thing flipped where Baker was

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Speaker 1: the odds on favorite to be the guy drafted number one.

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Speaker 1: Is that one of the things we're looking at this year,

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Speaker 1: and not with Trevor Lawrence, but Zach Wilson, any of

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Speaker 1: those quarterbacks are coming to the top five. Are we

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Speaker 1: gonna see any crazy movement with these quarterbacks. I know

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Speaker 1: people are saying mac Jones going third. Is there a

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Speaker 1: quarterback you see squeaking in there like Fields that we're

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Speaker 1: getting good value on right now that people aren't talking about.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think early on, when you looked at

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Speaker 1: the line and the numbers, you could get action on

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Speaker 1: a number of players, Matt mac Jones justin Fields and

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Speaker 1: Trey Lance and there there was lines across, you know,

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Speaker 1: multiple books to where you can kind of head your

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Speaker 1: bet on each one and made sure that you came

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Speaker 1: out with money. Uh. Anthony and Miko is one of

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Speaker 1: the guys that really did it, hit it, hit it good.

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Speaker 1: But I think when you start looking at things, and

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Speaker 1: Adam Schefter in particular, it's hard to bet against a

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Speaker 1: guy like Adam Schefter because his whole career, his whole

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Speaker 1: business is built upon relationships. And I don't see, especially

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Speaker 1: when we start talking about the forty niner situation at three,

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Speaker 1: you have all the sharks in industry, whether it's Dames, Theremia,

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Speaker 1: Tony Pauline, Michael Lombardi, you know, and especially Adam Schefter.

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Speaker 1: I think it's hard in that particular sense when we're

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Speaker 1: talking about three this year to go ahead and bet

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Speaker 1: against Adam Schefter being wrong, and like, I hear that,

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Speaker 1: but like the people's argument for the forty niners is

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Speaker 1: just already because they're like, oh, he's a Matt Ryan type,

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Speaker 1: He's a Kirk Cousins type. It says that people think

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Speaker 1: RG three never existed. People forget this guy worked with

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Speaker 1: RG three, We sold RG three, did his offense the

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Speaker 1: one healthy year he had in the NFL. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the guy was incredible. So for me, I see Fields,

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Speaker 1: I see Trey Lance, I'm just like, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: this is r G three, healthier, stronger. I just think

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Speaker 1: this is it's just an interesting thing to me that

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Speaker 1: the mac Joe's thing is such a lot, like you

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Speaker 1: just said, everyone says that's locked in. It's just funny.

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Speaker 1: Where I look at him, we go, are we sure

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Speaker 1: that's really his guy? Or is just just a pure

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Speaker 1: smoke screen by Kyle Shanahan. You know, And I think

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Speaker 1: one of the things you have to look at is, well,

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Speaker 1: let's just take Jacksonville for instance. At one, they're spoken

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Speaker 1: for in their hands pretty much on the table, they're

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Speaker 1: taking their taking Lawrence, I think you can pretty much

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Speaker 1: lock in Zach Wilson at number two. So you have

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Speaker 1: to ask yourself, logically, the forty Niners have no reason

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Speaker 1: to to not really to need to have a smoke screen.

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Speaker 1: You know, if they decide that they want fields, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna take fields. It's not like they're they traded up

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Speaker 1: to sit there and have open negotiations to let somebody

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Speaker 1: else trade into that spot. So I think one of

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Speaker 1: the things that you're looking at, just from a logical

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Speaker 1: standpoint and trying to to to get through the smoke

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Speaker 1: screen right now is you know, in my last my draft,

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Speaker 1: I had justin fields there and I've been of the

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Speaker 1: of the mindset that, you know, why would the forty

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Speaker 1: Niners trade up that much value to get mac Jones

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Speaker 1: and when they could have probably you know, maybe stayed

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Speaker 1: at nine, stayed you know, maybe just a couple of

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Speaker 1: spots before twelve, gave up less to to do it.

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Speaker 1: But at this point in time, with so many people

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Speaker 1: in industry insiders, and you know, I'm not an industry inside,

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Speaker 1: I don't have access to the coaches and things like that.

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Speaker 1: And I think when it comes to quarterback in particular,

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Speaker 1: you really have to look at coaches and what their preferences.

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Speaker 1: So you know, you have the Justin Fields comparison to

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Speaker 1: r G three, and then you have Mac Jones, who

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Speaker 1: kind of lines up a little bit more with Matt Ryan,

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Speaker 1: match Jobs some of the other quarterbacks that you know,

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Speaker 1: Santahan's going ahead and coachs. I just think when it

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Speaker 1: comes to this standpoint, I'm not gonna bet against Adam

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Speaker 1: Schefter being wrong. So as it leads up to to

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Speaker 1: the to the draft, and especially looking at betting odds

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Speaker 1: right now, I think if you can get numbers on

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Speaker 1: on Mac Jones being the pick, I would go ahead

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Speaker 1: and do that. Now. You know, whenever you're spreading, spreading

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Speaker 1: your bets and you're betting multiple units over multiple different players,

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Speaker 1: you know, shop the odds and see what you can

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Speaker 1: get on a trade land. Shop the odds and see

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Speaker 1: for what you can get on Justin Fields. Makes sense

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Speaker 1: from a value standpoint to go ahead and make those.

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Speaker 1: But as for right now, you know, like I said,

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Speaker 1: my last my draft, I had Justin Fields, but I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of shifting over to that Matt Jones swear. I

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Speaker 1: think that's who's gonna be the thicket three. Uh, Scott,

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Speaker 1: I have to ask you the idea of speed, because

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Speaker 1: in each sport, when something happens or there's a report,

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Speaker 1: there are bookmakers that are better than others at changing

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Speaker 1: up the odds taking something down. In the NFL draft

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Speaker 1: in general, obviously, over time we've had more and more

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Speaker 1: bet on this, which means that bookmakers should have more

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Speaker 1: attention on this. But is there an opportunity to jump

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Speaker 1: the gun and have a piece of news come out

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Speaker 1: and within one minute get down something that supremely changes

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Speaker 1: your opinion that makes a sure bet, or are they

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Speaker 1: as fast as as they are with NFL games when

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Speaker 1: there's news on NFL games for the draft. Now, from

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Speaker 1: what I've seen to makers and bookmakers are actually slower

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Speaker 1: as far as changing the odds here on on the draft.

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Speaker 1: And that's that's why I asked that question, because I

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Speaker 1: would think that there's if if they're looking at mock

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Speaker 1: drafts and they're not used to looking at the news

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Speaker 1: that make the mock drafts, that there actually is opportunity

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Speaker 1: to jump them if you're reading the news. Yeah. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: Specifically when the forty Niners made this trade, you know,

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Speaker 1: initially Matt Jones opened up with over under a fifty

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Speaker 1: as far as his draft prop. DraftKings was the initial

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Speaker 1: one that hurry up and went and changed that, and

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Speaker 1: his plan prop dropped down to nine, and it's dropped

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Speaker 1: down even more since then. So it's not a it's

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Speaker 1: not a situation where when news happens, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: an immediate drop. I mean you have hours and even

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Speaker 1: in some cases, specifically with this Forting Honor trade, I

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Speaker 1: saw two and three days after where the market still

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Speaker 1: hadn't adjusted properly to where you can still get value

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Speaker 1: on all three of those quarterbacks trade lance justin Fields

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Speaker 1: and Matt Jones when it comes to betting, and then

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Speaker 1: the other question I have is because I am a

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Speaker 1: square of squares, but I do like to go. I

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Speaker 1: do realize where the squares are, and sometimes I go

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Speaker 1: the other way. As Simon knows, Uh, I can imagine

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Speaker 1: that the books are taking like eighty percent of the

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Speaker 1: action on the quarterbacks because that's the sexiest thing. Is

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Speaker 1: there some position or some bet, whether it's like offensive

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Speaker 1: lineman or like should you care about Panay Sewell or

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Speaker 1: Rashaan Slater, or is there some category of bet for

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Speaker 1: the draft that you would consider advantageous because few people

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Speaker 1: are paying attention to it because all I care about

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Speaker 1: is money. Well, I think I think when you start

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Speaker 1: looking at those situations, you have to look at where

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Speaker 1: there's some gray area as far as the scouting community.

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Speaker 1: So you know, you just talked about Salt versus Slater.

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Speaker 1: You know, you have the Dana Jeremiah's and of the

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Speaker 1: world who have Slater rated ahead of school and a

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Speaker 1: lot of their mock drafts and things of that nature.

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Speaker 1: So where there is some gray area. The things that

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Speaker 1: you have to start breaking down is team preferences. You know,

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Speaker 1: does one team like to run a certain style of

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Speaker 1: blocking as far as their scheme, and you start to

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Speaker 1: look at scheme fits for players. One of the other

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Speaker 1: situations that I really like, I think running back is

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Speaker 1: one of those positions where you can look at it

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Speaker 1: and start betting on certain players to be the first

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Speaker 1: one drafted. Specifically this year. You know, you've only really

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Speaker 1: got three of them in competition. I think Javante Williams

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Speaker 1: is gonna be, uh, you know, a distant third, So

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Speaker 1: you're really kind of betting between you know, Naja Harris

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Speaker 1: and eight t N. But I think you can still

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Speaker 1: get some good numbers on a Javante Williams to go

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Speaker 1: ahead and bet a unit that's gonna make sense. But

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Speaker 1: but specifically looking at those looking at those positions where

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Speaker 1: there's not a clear cut guy the way Kyle Pitts

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Speaker 1: is absolutely far ahead over any other player at the

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Speaker 1: tight end position. You start looking at those where there's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of gray area as to who the

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Speaker 1: top prospect is. Yeah, that's actually saying people do like

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Speaker 1: Slater to be the first eline draft. He still plus

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Speaker 1: three fifty right now and drafting. So and that's the quarter,

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Speaker 1: by the way, the difference there. So the question on

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Speaker 1: Slater versus Sewell and I have a bet right now

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Speaker 1: with some NFL player who beat me. Remember it's on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: It's over a stake dinner. I have Slater because I'm

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Speaker 1: a Northwestern guy. He has Sewell. Um, but uh I

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Speaker 1: so Slater didn't play Northwestern, you know, he didn't play

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Speaker 1: this year. And so you got to ask, are are

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Speaker 1: the people who are drafting are the teams? Do they

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Speaker 1: usually care whether someone are they are? Do they just

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Speaker 1: like the combine numbers or do they care whether someone's

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Speaker 1: played or whatever? I mean, it's really a Jedi mind game.

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Speaker 1: I think specifically, when we're talking about Pine s versus

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Speaker 1: Slater this year. You look at Slater and a lot

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Speaker 1: of people are going to go back to that Tapey

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Speaker 1: had last year against Chase Young. You know, that's that's

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Speaker 1: one of the things that's gonna go ahead. But the

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Speaker 1: big difference between these two guys right now, it's really

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Speaker 1: gonna be age. You look at Pays and how young

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Speaker 1: he is sitting there at and you start looking at

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Speaker 1: at Slater, and you say, with the extra couple of years,

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Speaker 1: whenever Pays actually hits the same age a Slater, is

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Speaker 1: he gonna be able to close the gap, you know,

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Speaker 1: as far as talent and technique of what Slater may

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Speaker 1: have over him in some Scott's eyes right now, And

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Speaker 1: just to go bring it back to the quarterbacks. Right now,

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Speaker 1: the over under is sitting up five and a half

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Speaker 1: and we're talking about five quarterbacks going to the top fifteen. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's plus three right now. If you want to take

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Speaker 1: you over saying that there's gonna be six quarterbacks taken.

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Speaker 1: I know that teams do like to take quarterbacks second

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Speaker 1: round because the discount, YadA, YadA, YadA, But I got

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Speaker 1: guys like trash I like him a lot. Get out

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Speaker 1: of Florida. I could see him be in her first

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Speaker 1: round pick. Mind Uh out of took Say and m

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Speaker 1: He's a really good, solid quarterback that people have high

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Speaker 1: prospects for. Are we gonna see any these quarterbacks sneak

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Speaker 1: into the late rounds or do you think it's just

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Speaker 1: todd heavy where these teams need quarterbacks So by the

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Speaker 1: end of the first round, is really gonna trade him

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Speaker 1: back into get a quarterback? Yeah? Not not this year.

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Speaker 1: I just don't see it with the top five guys. Um,

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Speaker 1: this is a bet that I'm staying away from Uh,

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Speaker 1: even with the odds that are there, I just don't

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Speaker 1: look at any of the other guys that that are there.

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Speaker 1: And you're talking about Min Trask and Davis Mills is

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Speaker 1: another guy out of Standford. A lot of a lot

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Speaker 1: of draft nicks and people in the scouting community have

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Speaker 1: a shooting up. But specifically, you know a couple of

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Speaker 1: websites that I like to look at as far as

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Speaker 1: the scouting community goes. The guys over at NFL Rough

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Speaker 1: Draft kind of rap these guys and have been very

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Speaker 1: accurate and consistent over you know, the time of where

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Speaker 1: these guys gonna get drafted. And and those two guys

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Speaker 1: that that two guys that are the next up on

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Speaker 1: the list after their top five is really Davis Mills,

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Speaker 1: who comes in at one O two on the rankings,

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Speaker 1: and Kyle Trask, which is at one, and those guys

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Speaker 1: are both kind of being projected to be fourth round picks.

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Speaker 1: I think the Saints have been one of the teams

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Speaker 1: that have been linked to Trask here here recently. I

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Speaker 1: could see him going maybe in the third round. I

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Speaker 1: just don't see any of these guys speaking into their

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Speaker 1: first round this year. Scott, you have not j Harris

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Speaker 1: at four. I know it's not uh Edwards e Laire

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Speaker 1: territory all the way down, but is there a possibility?

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Speaker 1: There must be uh and I haven't looked, but there

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Speaker 1: must be an option of saying, will a running back

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Speaker 1: be drafted in first round? Any any way that answer

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Speaker 1: could be a no. Uh. You know, I think you

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Speaker 1: start looking at the teams that really need running back

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Speaker 1: and and there's there's really three guys that separate themselves.

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Speaker 1: You know, I talked about a T and Harrison and

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Speaker 1: Javat Williams. Those are the three guys that are going

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Speaker 1: to separate themselves. You start looking at the teams that

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Speaker 1: need running back. Pittsburgh's one of them. The Jets are

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Speaker 1: another one. Uh, Tampa Bay could be in the mix

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Speaker 1: of that. They just resigned Wonard for net. I think

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Speaker 1: there is a possibility that none go, but I'm leaning

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Speaker 1: more towards it. There's gonna be at least one there

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Speaker 1: in the first round, you know, somewhere between the Jets

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Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh. I like one of those two teams to

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Speaker 1: take one of the top two running backs. So as

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Speaker 1: we sit here three weeks out, I know it's we

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Speaker 1: still have a lot. A lot of things can happen,

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Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of movie pieces. But is

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Speaker 1: there any any just player, individual player that he's got

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Speaker 1: crazy good odds for individually being bet in a specific

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Speaker 1: thing you're trying to bet where you're just like, this

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Speaker 1: is crazy long shot odds, But I think it's something

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Speaker 1: that could happen where you know, plus five plus thousand,

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Speaker 1: the everything like that they've been betting. No, there's not

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Speaker 1: a specific bet that I've been looking. I got in

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Speaker 1: very early on odds with with Mac Jones being over

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Speaker 1: and under fifteen and that's going down and continue. I

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Speaker 1: think quarterback is, like we talked about all the one

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Speaker 1: of the ones that's being bet the most. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think I think the odds that that I've recently

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Speaker 1: seen on Javante Williams being the first running back taking

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Speaker 1: I think that's around three fifty from what I've seen. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's one of the ones that I think you could

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Speaker 1: get in on on a long shot. Um. And and

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Speaker 1: then if you can start looking at you know specifically

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Speaker 1: how many players at a certain position will be drafted

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Speaker 1: within the first round. If you can start to find

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Speaker 1: some of the player props on that, that's some of

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Speaker 1: the ones out I would get in. The number I

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Speaker 1: like right now is specifically at the wide receiver position.

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Speaker 1: I like the number to be five. You know, I think, uh,

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Speaker 1: I forget what the odds are, but I know there's

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Speaker 1: there's a nice bet out there to be made on

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Speaker 1: over and under five and a half for wide receivers. So, um,

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Speaker 1: A lot of people are kind of mocking Canarius Tony

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Speaker 1: into the first round. He's a guy that I just

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Speaker 1: even though you hear around scouting circles and inside the

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Speaker 1: NFL circles that he's a guy A lot of teams

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Speaker 1: like I just don't see him being kind of that

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Speaker 1: six wide receiver making it into the first round. Looks

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Speaker 1: like you also have cornerbacks at five. Um again, as

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Speaker 1: a Northwestern guy, I we have never had. I don't

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Speaker 1: think anyone to draft where there's two guys in the

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Speaker 1: first round uh Newsome. Greg Newsome obviously had a tremendous

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Speaker 1: pro day and that changed everything around and he could

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Speaker 1: be in there. So cornerbacks are is there a number there?

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Speaker 1: Is there an opportunity there? Or is it too obvious

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Speaker 1: between certain and everyone else? And then throw Newsom in?

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Speaker 1: Is that number more refined now? I think the number

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Speaker 1: to look at on on cornerback is gonna be uh

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Speaker 1: five is. I don't think you can go higher than that.

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Speaker 1: The real issue that you have going right now is

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Speaker 1: with Calen Farley, um, you know, sitting out a year,

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Speaker 1: also having the back injuries, and where our team's really

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Speaker 1: gonna fall on him at this point in time, I

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Speaker 1: think Greg Nuso has moved ahead of Farley and I

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Speaker 1: think he'll end up getting drafted because it is a

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Speaker 1: safer prospect at this point a lot of people have

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Speaker 1: said that Caleb Farley has the most upside, and you know,

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Speaker 1: among the cornerbacks here, but I think he's going to

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Speaker 1: be the guy that slips. I think Newson will end

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Speaker 1: up being the third cornerback off the board after certain

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Speaker 1: and J. C. Horne, and I think you start looking

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Speaker 1: at another guy that can move in and you're talking

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Speaker 1: about Stokes from Georgia A Sante Samuel from Florida State.

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Speaker 1: I think those are gonna be the other two guys

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Speaker 1: that you can kind of look at moving in on

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Speaker 1: the back end of that first round. And you touched

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Speaker 1: on a little about how deep this priv receiving Gus.

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Speaker 1: It feels like we're in a golden age right now.

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Speaker 1: Bar Reacier every year every draft, so like this is

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Speaker 1: a really deep by receiving class and just looking at it,

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Speaker 1: like last year Ceedee Lamb, he slid and we saw

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if you said Jess Jefferson slid,

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Speaker 1: but he kind of did where he ended up being

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Speaker 1: far and above the best receiver last year. Where we're

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Speaker 1: hearing things about Smith right now in Alabama that he's

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Speaker 1: gonna slide and people have him going to the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: where early on he's projected top ten draft picks, So

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Speaker 1: I'm interested if there's value right now and kind of

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Speaker 1: betting on one of these receivers to slide because I've

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Speaker 1: seen Wendell sliding two from Alabama. So it's just interesting

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Speaker 1: that a lot of these guys are getting bumped down

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Speaker 1: just because, like you said, there's guys in the second

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Speaker 1: third round that can be drafted that could be top,

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Speaker 1: top level receivers. So yeah, I think when you look

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Speaker 1: at it, you have to start looking at some of

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Speaker 1: these some of these teams and what type of wide

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Speaker 1: receiver they want. But specifically when we start looking at

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Speaker 1: the two guys from from Alabama, they're both mocked highly

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Speaker 1: in a lot of mock drafts if you start looking

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Speaker 1: at them. I think if you look at at Benjamin

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Speaker 1: Robinson's website Grunding the Mocks, where you can sit there

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Speaker 1: and look at every single mock draft, and he he

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Speaker 1: actually has trends of where players were drafted and where

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00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 1: they're moving. You know, right now you have DeVante Smith

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Speaker 1: at eight and Waddle looking at his expected draft position

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Speaker 1: to be at pick ten. But both of these guys,

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Speaker 1: you have Waddle who's been injured, and then even though

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Speaker 1: DeVante Smith had a great year won the Heisman. He

395
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Speaker 1: keeps saying an he weighs a hundred and seventy pounds,

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Speaker 1: but he's yet to step on the scale. He's yet

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Speaker 1: to you know, to run any of the drills. My

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Speaker 1: particular idea about this whole thing is that he's he's

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Speaker 1: well under a hundred seventy pounds and that he's waiting

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Speaker 1: to do a workout until he gains the weight to

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Speaker 1: get to a hundred and seventy pounds. I think that's

402
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 1: the magic number for him. Um. So you have to

403
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Speaker 1: wonder how many teams, you know, specifically with the way

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00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,239
Speaker 1: things are going with COVID and the draft process now,

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00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 1: how many teams are gonna start to shy away, especially

406
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Speaker 1: from a guy like DeVante Smith who has yet to

407
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 1: work out, yet to step on the scale and do

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00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,240
Speaker 1: some of those things and allow teams to really be

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00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 1: able to poke and cried to to get an idea

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00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 1: of how they really feel the Vante Smith. When it

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Speaker 1: comes down to it, you start looking at pass wide

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Speaker 1: receivers with his physical profile, and then there hasn't been

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Speaker 1: a lot of them. So he's an outlier as far

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Speaker 1: as you know, a wide receiver from a build standpoint

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Speaker 1: as to whether or not he can have success at

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Speaker 1: the NFL. So is that gonna scare some teams off?

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Speaker 1: The rumors currently or or that the Giants are hot

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Speaker 1: on DeVante Smith. But I think there's a very good

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Speaker 1: chance that either one of DeVante Smith or Waddle can

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Speaker 1: drop down past the fifteen range. My last mock draft

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Speaker 1: actually had Jale and Waddle going at fifteen to the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think it's a guarantee that a team

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Speaker 1: like the Eagles, who need wide receiver help, they also

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Speaker 1: need offensive line help, they also need cornerback up, you know,

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Speaker 1: j C. Horne. I think there's a there's a very

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Speaker 1: big drop off between a gap between where j. C.

427
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Speaker 1: Horne is and Greg Newsoon. So I think you could

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Speaker 1: see a team like Philadelphia, with the wide receiver position

429
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Speaker 1: being so so valuable and so so deep here this year,

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Speaker 1: I think you could see a team like Philadelphia take

431
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 1: jac Horn, which I have in my last move draft,

432
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 1: and and pass on on a wide receiver, which drops

433
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 1: one of those guys down. Alright, Scott, I just went

434
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:17,239
Speaker 1: through on draft Kings. I just went through picked by position. Um,

435
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 1: it seems like there's wide Variances. But I wanted to

436
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 1: look at where the closest gap was in any uh

437
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 1: position bet and that's first non quarterback to be drafted.

438
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 1: So they have Kyle Pitts at plus one forty, Pena

439
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 1: Sula plus one s Jamaar Chase at plus two fifty.

440
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 1: Those are really tightly packed. Is there any value in that?

441
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 1: I think there is some value in that um, which

442
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 1: you really have to look at. I think the draft

443
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,120
Speaker 1: really starts with forty. But but what's gonna happen there

444
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: with Atlanta? Atlanta specifically dealing with Matt Ryan and renegotiating

445
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: this contract. I think they're tied into him for the

446
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 1: next two years, So does that allow them to trade

447
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 1: for a team that that you know may want a

448
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,879
Speaker 1: quarterback coming up? I think the issue you find is

449
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 1: basically what the forty Niners paid to to get the three,

450
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 1: Atlanta is gonna want a similar package, And I just

451
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 1: don't know if teams are gonna be willing to move

452
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 1: into that position to essentially draft the fourth three quarterback

453
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: in the in the draft. I don't think they're gonna

454
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: want to give up that much compensation. So the other

455
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: thing you have to start looking at is what other

456
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 1: positions would Atlanta draft. I think Kyle Pitts is a

457
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 1: unicorn of this draft when it comes to you know,

458
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: what he can do and the skills and skill set

459
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 1: that he brings. He's a guy that I like going

460
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: ahead and getting a bet on the issue becomes is

461
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: doesn't wlant a trade out of it. I actually think

462
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,640
Speaker 1: that the trade out position for a team that wants

463
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: to move up to get a quarterback is gonna be

464
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 1: seven with Detroit. So I kind of do like the

465
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: money and want when Kyle Pitts there. If you want

466
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 1: to drop a few units for Kyle Pitts to be

467
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 1: the first non quarterback draft, yeah, definitely what you said

468
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 1: makes nervous about it. Where if a team does want

469
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: to trade up with Atlanta all of a sudden, who

470
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 1: knows what the bank was might do because everyone's saying

471
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 1: the bank was going to to take an alignement or

472
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: wide receiver. And that's why that's and that's what makes

473
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 1: betting on the draft so unique, right, I mean it's like,

474
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, the rules change. You're betting on

475
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 1: something you know. You often know obviously, like who's playing

476
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 1: who's not playing, but like that's the most screwed up thing.

477
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 1: Maybe in all of bet things, all of a sudden,

478
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 1: everything you've assumed can no longer be assumed. And that's

479
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: what I like the bet on in the draft. I

480
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 1: like to bet on those scenarios because you have guys

481
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 1: like Getleman. You have these wild card gms who are

482
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 1: not old school, but they just do what they want

483
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 1: to do. They have they have their mind made up.

484
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: Like there's so many draft picks, you just go through it.

485
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: Like the fact that Haskins with the Washington pick, that

486
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 1: was the owner stepping in making him do that. That's

487
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: what's so funny about all these mocks. And I do

488
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 1: love mocks, but like you said, there's only a couple

489
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 1: of guys who I really trust. And when they're saying

490
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: like the slighter thing we talked about, when they have

491
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: him going as a first lineman, that kind of raises

492
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 1: something because these are two guys that really trust the

493
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: industry where it's like, Okay, they know if they're not

494
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 1: just putting Slater in their list for they get clicks,

495
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: they don't need that noise. So that's what that's what

496
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 1: I'm like trying to get into with him. Is that.

497
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 1: I just feel like there is so much value in

498
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 1: the draft where if you do go off board a

499
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 1: little bit, like we're talking about these right receivers sliding.

500
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 1: I love that value. I think I just checked before

501
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: he came on that Um Smith's runner was ten a half.

502
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: There could be great value in that. Like you just said,

503
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: if Detroit or Carolina or one of these teams don't

504
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 1: take them, he could just start sliding. So I'm just

505
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 1: interested what you view on. Is there other players that

506
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 1: you're like looking at very nowther there like these guys

507
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 1: could easily slide in this draft if things don't line up. Yeah.

508
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: I think when we start talking about specifically these teams

509
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 1: that may fraight up into the top ten to to

510
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: grab a quarterback, I think the guy that you you

511
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: look at that that could start falling, it's Michael Parsons,

512
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: you know. I think he had a he had a

513
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: great Pro day there at Penn State. Does have a

514
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 1: few off the field issues. You know, he's the top linebacker,

515
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 1: he's often been been. It's been pretty much between both

516
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: him and Patrick person St And as to to the

517
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 1: odds as to who the top defender is going to

518
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 1: be be drafted. But I think Parsons is a guy

519
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 1: that you could see slide down. You know, I think

520
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 1: he could be drafted as early as seven to Detroit.

521
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: But if Detroit's a spot that moves out and one

522
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: of these teams comes up and grabs a quarterback, you

523
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: know how far down? You know? Does he go eight

524
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 1: to Carolina? You know, then you start looking at at

525
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: the Giants next, and and then you know, I think

526
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: he's a guy that can move down and maybe all

527
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: the way down to the Patriots. Me in the draft.

528
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 1: I honestly, I just like he's just been talking to

529
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 1: us about it. There's so many little things that can

530
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 1: happen that just set off a whole domino effect. And

531
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 1: I like to not bet on that domino effect, but

532
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: I'm betting on the uncertainty of the draft because you

533
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 1: can go through it. Every year. People do these mocks,

534
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 1: you can go through them. If they just get half

535
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: for a little bit less, that's a great year. That's

536
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 1: a great year on the mock. If you can get

537
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: twelve to four team picks right to individual teams, that's

538
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 1: a really good year in mox. So when I see

539
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 1: those kind of things, I like, he just talked about it,

540
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,719
Speaker 1: the books have no idea. There are literally going off

541
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: the same information we're going off of their reading stuff.

542
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: They're seeing other people's marks where during the season building

543
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 1: these football lines, they have a whole computer system, a

544
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: network of people that are building these lines. So when

545
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,680
Speaker 1: I'm when I'm talking about doing weird things, like I'll

546
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: post things out close to the draft, people are gonna

547
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 1: hate it because I'm gonna do really weird stuff where Like,

548
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: like he talked about, um the odds of their being

549
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 1: over five and a half quarterbacks, I'm with him, I

550
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 1: don't see a way that any of these quarterbacks get

551
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: in there. But I also didn't think Jalen Hurts was

552
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 1: the second round quarterback last year. So like, teams will

553
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 1: do weird things, especially a quarterback position where it's like

554
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: they don't even care. It's just one of those where

555
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: the positions that's such a high value that they just

556
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 1: overvalue it. So I just see weird things happening in

557
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 1: this draft, especially the fact we've had no combine, no

558
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: in person meetings. There's just gonna be a lot of

559
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 1: things that are gonna be very different than normal seasons.

560
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: What's your best bet? I saw a line out there.

561
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 1: They set the over and under at point five for

562
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: safeties to be drafted in the first round. You know,

563
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 1: the Kid Grant from UCF and I think Trevor morg

564
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 1: from TCU. Both of those guys U one for sure.

565
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 1: I think more is gonna go in the first round,

566
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: but minus two fifty, I think there's enough odds there,

567
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: even though it's negative, to go ahead and drop money

568
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: on that and have a decent return. Um you know,

569
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: some of the other ones, I think. I think both

570
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: Jylan Waddle and and Davante Smith from what I'm looking

571
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: at right now, are both plus one hundred over and

572
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: under to the A leven and eleven and a half.

573
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: I think, you know, you can go ahead and on

574
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 1: both of those. I think one of them are returned,

575
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 1: and one of those guys is gonna end up, you know,

576
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,719
Speaker 1: lower than that ten and a half number, that safety.

577
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 1: But I think it is easy money. I'm willing to

578
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 1: drop heavily on on that, even though it's a negative ode.

579
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: But when you got when you do these mocks like

580
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: it's it's obviously really hard to predict the trades. But

581
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 1: I keep hearing a lot of chatter about the Patriots

582
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 1: being one of these teams are gonna move up into

583
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: that fourhole and they're gonna take their quarterback of the future. Now,

584
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 1: do you think there's any value of like betting the

585
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 1: Patriots like first draft pick to be Trey Lance or

586
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 1: justin Fields, just on the fact they could be one

587
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 1: of those teams traded up to that fourhole because it

588
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: is a good value. Right now both them are over

589
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 1: plus a thousand to go the Patriots. Yeah, I think

590
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 1: when you're getting odds like that, like it's it's fine

591
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 1: to go ahead and bet a couple of units on that.

592
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 1: I mean, the values there anything. Anytime you're getting over

593
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 1: plus five odds on some of these things, you have

594
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,399
Speaker 1: to start looking at spreading your money around it and betting.

595
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: I think specifically when we look at those those those

596
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: teams that you you think may move up, you have

597
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 1: to look at at specifically what they have as far

598
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 1: as draft compensation. So the four teams that are pretty

599
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 1: much thought to be in a run to move up,

600
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: you're you're talking to Denver, you're talking New England, talking Chicago,

601
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: and you're talking Washington. All of those teams, with the

602
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: exception of New England, I think they're missing a fifth

603
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: round pick next year, but the rest of them have

604
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 1: all their their their normal compensation of draft picks and

605
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: the specifically when we talk about New England, the thing

606
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: that's interested in with New England is that they play

607
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 1: the NFL as far as free agents leaving, and they

608
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: often get compensatory picks back the following year. It's I

609
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: think they're like six or seven years in a row,

610
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 1: like getting a third round compensatory pick. While they can't

611
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 1: trade that compensatory pick, it allows them to go ahead

612
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: and move a second round pick next year, a third

613
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 1: round pick next year because they know they're going to

614
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: be having a compensatory pick coming back. So it makes

615
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 1: some of the collateral that they need to move a

616
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: little bit easier. When you start talking about seem like

617
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: the Patriots to where whenever you start looking at the

618
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: draft history and what they've done, I think it makes

619
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 1: sense to put some odds on there if you're getting

620
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 1: a plus one thousands for them to trade. So that's

621
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets. I would tell people to

622
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 1: shop around because different books have different numbers for that,

623
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: and I just love the idea that Bill just went through.

624
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: It you just went through a season without what we

625
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 1: can call a really good quarterback, and I just can't

626
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: see it, especially at his age, that he's gonna be like,

627
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: all right, I'm flying with just rolling another season with camp.

628
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: I really do think that all the beat writers up

629
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 1: in Boston have been talking about it, and it's just

630
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 1: been getting more and more esteemed. So for yeah, my

631
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 1: long shot bet I really like either the Patriots to

632
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: draft justin fields of trail Lands Scott. Is there any

633
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 1: thought about that some of these guys are less uh

634
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: less evaluated because of COVID, because of fewer games that

635
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 1: it's less efficient and therefore teams and gms will lean

636
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 1: more towards where they normally lean. But I think what

637
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: you have to look at is, generally speaking, when you're

638
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: talking about NFL teams, their scouts are going very much

639
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 1: off the tape and what they've seen on the field.

640
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 1: The things that pop up that change draft position that

641
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: we don't find out about as a public until it's

642
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 1: too late, because you start hearing about the behind the

643
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: scene things. You know, you know, this person popped at

644
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: the combine with a with a bad drug test, or

645
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 1: this person popped up you know during their medicals with injuries.

646
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 1: At this point in time, I just don't know how

647
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 1: that's being operated within the NFL as far as the

648
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 1: drug testing, as far as the medicals are are going

649
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 1: and things like that. So it's it's information like that

650
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: that's really going to be an X factor and that's

651
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: gonna be coming out of left field that you're gonna

652
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: find out about late on on some of these picks.

653
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 1: So I think when we're talking about some of these

654
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: teams and how they're gonna fare, you know, you really

655
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: just have to to break down what their needs are

656
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 1: and things like that, because we really just don't have

657
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: access to the normal amount of information that you would

658
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: have gotten from the combine that you know, would have

659
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 1: been leaking out from here and there. So I think

660
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 1: really you do have to look at basically GM's past

661
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: tendencies and and kind of just evaluate needs, you know.

662
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 1: And then there's still some things that you can look at,

663
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: especially at the edge the edge position like defensive ends

664
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 1: and outside linebackers. In this draft, there are a lot

665
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: of guys that have some freak athletic ability, you know,

666
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 1: at that position, So you start looking at how those

667
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: guys in the past have gone up, and specifically when

668
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: you start looking at the NFL marketing and where contracts

669
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 1: are going, the edge position those guys are getting paid.

670
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 1: You know, Carl Lawson just left the Bengals, and so

671
00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: you start looking at some of these athletic guys that

672
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 1: that you have. You know, I think, um, you know

673
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 1: Old Gilari and the other kids from Penn State. You know,

674
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: teams are going to start betting, especially at the end

675
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: of the first round. You know, when when you can

676
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 1: get a fifth year option and you have one of

677
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 1: these athletic guys that they're they're going ahead and projecting

678
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: to to be able to get better over the next

679
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 1: two or three years. I think some of those guys

680
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: are going to be able to sneak into the first round,

681
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: and you can start looking at the back end and

682
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: project some of those teams to to go ahead and

683
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: take chances on the more athletic players. Now, I don't

684
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: want to do this for I buddy Darren on the

685
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: way out here, but I have to. I have to

686
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 1: break it down. I feel like I'm an island here

687
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: with the whole Zack Wilson thing. I have a guy

688
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 1: that I have three years of tape on him. Okay,

689
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 1: his first year, I think he was thirteen touchdowns, twelve interceptions.

690
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: The year after I think it was like fifteen touchdowns,

691
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: ten interceptions. And then last year I saw it thirty

692
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:54,479
Speaker 1: one touchdowns, maybe a handful interceptions, great off bounce, balance throws.

693
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: He looked great. I mean, isn't that People aren't talking

694
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 1: about that. The guy played at BUYU. He got worked

695
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 1: by Coastal Carolina. Like I love the kids, the kids

696
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:05,719
Speaker 1: outside of him, I get it. I project him too.

697
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: I think he's a great quarterback, but I have them

698
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 1: azed my fourth grade of quarterback. I don't see how

699
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 1: he went from this guy from b y U that. Yeah,

700
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: people knew about him because we watched the football season.

701
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: He played well. Tell of a sudden this lock, number

702
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 1: two pick overall, gonna save the Jets in three months,

703
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened and were like, what am

704
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 1: I missing? With Zach Wilson whire people rejecting this guy

705
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 1: to be the savior of the Jets. I'll admit it.

706
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: You know, when it comes to quarterback and really break

707
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: it down a quarterback position, I don't think there's too

708
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: many experts out there. I think when it comes to

709
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: the position, it's really the offensive coordinator or the head

710
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 1: coach that's that's calling the place, that knows what traits

711
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 1: that that they want. You know, when when it comes

712
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 1: to Zack Wilson, he has shot up. I think all

713
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 1: all year when you look at things, especially going into

714
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: the college football year, I think the majority of people

715
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: had justin fields is the second quarterback to to be

716
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: looked at it as far as being drafted, you know,

717
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: and then you saw Zach Wilson go ahead and makes

718
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: some of these plays. I think a big thing that

719
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 1: that people forget about. And you look at the old

720
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: Bill parcels things that the things that he wanted was,

721
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: you know, completion percentage over sixty for the career. You know,

722
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 1: a certain amount of games played. You know, when you

723
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: start looking at a guy like Trey Lance, a guy

724
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: like Zach Wilson, there's just not a whole lot of

725
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: you know, film and a lot to look off of.

726
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: So Zack Wilson he has one year of you know,

727
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 1: premier play and it's against lower level competition. You know,

728
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 1: is he gonna be able to come in and save

729
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 1: the Jets? You know, I don't know, And I don't

730
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 1: think half the NFL knows. You know, Phil Silms has him,

731
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: I mean, Chris Silms has n'm is his top quarterback.

732
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 1: You know, he's getting a lot of the hype that's

733
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: been a lot of the publicity that's going on. But look,

734
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: you know, when it comes down to it, I think

735
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 1: it's just a matter of what traits are gonna match

736
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: up for the guy who's calling the plays over there.

737
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 1: And it's the same thing going ahead and talking about

738
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: San Francisco. You know, everybody talks about justin fields. Can

739
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: he can he go ahead and cross us and make

740
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: the second and third read fast enough? Or is it

741
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: gonna be a guy like Mike Jones. It's it's he's

742
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: coaches like how Santahana are gonna have to make the

743
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 1: decision that Noah, hell of a lot more than I

744
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 1: do when it comes to scouting and projecting quarterbacks that

745
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: are gonna make the call as to whether these guys

746
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 1: can come in and do it. But don't don't you

747
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: feel like you're losing your mind? Like I literally feel

748
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,879
Speaker 1: like I'm losing my mind. I heard the same story. Man,

749
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 1: They like the Trabsky people are like, oh, well, he

750
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 1: has a full season at UNC, he played, well, let's

751
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: take him over to Shaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes where

752
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: I'm getting that flashback right here with this b Yu

753
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: could and Mac Jones like, the guy played one year

754
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 1: at Alabama and now he's going over the fields. And

755
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: I know Trey Lanston play last year, but he was

756
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 1: twenty eight and through twenty touchdowns, zero interceptions this full season,

757
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 1: So I don't know what's happening. I'm like, I feel

758
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 1: like I'm losing my mind right now, So I don't

759
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 1: really get the whole Zach Wilson or Mac Jones think

760
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,959
Speaker 1: it's bizarre. That's gonna do it. For this NFL Draft

761
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites part of The Volume podcast network,

762
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: We'll see you back here Thursday as special guest host

763
00:35:56,440 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman hosts Our Favorites Thursday Thundered Home My thanks

764
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: to Simon Hunter and our guest Scott Smith. You can

765
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 1: follow Scott on Twitter at Scott Smith f F and

766
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 1: you can find his updated mock drafts at Action network

767
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 1: dot com and on the Action app. Thanks Scott, appreciate

768
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: you all right, you guys have a good one. As

769
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: a reminder, the Volume is now on YouTube. We've got

770
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 1: new stuff up there every single day, including clip and

771
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: interviews from all the network shows. Subscribe to The Volume

772
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com backslash the Volume. Thanks

773
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,240
Speaker 1: for listening. Please rate and review the show on Apple

774
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 1: Podcasts and download and listen on Spotify. I've been your host,

775
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,439
Speaker 1: Darren Ravelle, I'm better than Chad Millman and good luck

776
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 1: betting the two thousand one NFL Draft