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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Veil and joining me for the

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Speaker 1: entirety of football season none other than the King of Content,

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Speaker 1: the sense of soaps, the podcast power listener, and long

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Speaker 1: suffering Cowboys fan, the oracle himself, Matt Friedman.

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Speaker 2: Matt, how are you doing today?

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Speaker 3: That was quite the introduction. I don't I don't even

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Speaker 3: remember what my introduction was for you last year. Do

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Speaker 3: you remember what it was?

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Speaker 4: Oh?

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Speaker 2: Let's here.

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Speaker 1: It is the Titan of Tomato sauce, the Connoisseur of pasta.

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Speaker 2: There was something else in there, and long suffering.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and long suffering Jess fan.

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Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, sidekick, sidekick at the controls, connoisseur of pasta,

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Speaker 1: Titan of Tomato sauce. But now the tables have turned.

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Speaker 1: I am no longer the sidekick. Now you kind of

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Speaker 1: are the one in the sidecar here. I am the

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Speaker 1: captain now, Matt.

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Speaker 3: That's true.

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Speaker 2: The turns table, how the turntables.

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Speaker 3: Yes, exactly, thank you, Thank you for correct me. I

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Speaker 3: couldn't even screw up the screw up.

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Speaker 1: Well, today, Matt, we're gonna be talking about some totals

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Speaker 1: win totals, how to evaluate numbers, how to find value

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Speaker 1: in them, and we're going to make some predictions as well.

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Speaker 2: At the end of the show.

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Speaker 1: You and I were going to face off with a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a win totals draft here and we'll

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Speaker 1: come back at the end of the season and see

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Speaker 1: how wrong we were. But first to talk totals with us, guys,

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Speaker 1: please welcome back.

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Speaker 2: To the show.

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Speaker 1: Making a return appearance here none other than my good

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Speaker 1: buddy Jeff Parles.

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Speaker 5: I thought you were a Titan of Tortellini. Actually, Tom,

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Speaker 5: I thought that was your I thought that was your nickname.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know, it could have been, but honestly, Tortellini

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Speaker 1: not quite up there with Penne for me.

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Speaker 2: Penney is always at the top of the power rankings. Jeff,

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Speaker 2: how are you doing today?

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Speaker 5: I'm great, guys. You know we're talking before the show.

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Speaker 5: It's just we're at that point of the calendar. We're

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Speaker 5: about two or three days away from being like, oh

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Speaker 5: my god, we are almost at the end of the

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Speaker 5: summer abyss, and we're almost at football season where we're

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Speaker 5: gonna be waiting on some great week zero games at

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Speaker 5: college football.

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Speaker 4: We're almost through the preseason in the NFL.

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Speaker 5: But it's just awesome to be with the guys and

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Speaker 5: talking some win totals today, because you.

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Speaker 4: Really got to start hopping in.

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Speaker 5: If you've already missed a boat on some there are

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Speaker 5: still some out there that are quite good.

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Speaker 1: It's true, you know, camp is finally done, preseason is underway,

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Speaker 1: and we're starting to get what is admittedly a flawed

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Speaker 1: look at some of these teams. Guys, how much are

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Speaker 1: you weighing these preseason looks in your evaluations versus dismissing

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Speaker 1: some of this data, like the rumors about the Patriots

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Speaker 1: and how their offense is just playing abysmal at camp.

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Speaker 1: How much are you putting stock into these when you're

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Speaker 1: making your win total picks, and how much are you

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Speaker 1: kind of ignoring some of this preseason bots.

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Speaker 5: So I would say this, you just have to you

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Speaker 5: have to be able to filter out the bs and

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Speaker 5: the non bs, which is very hard at this time

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Speaker 5: of the year because it's again it's practice. Is it's

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Speaker 5: preseason games where half the teams have their starters play

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Speaker 5: for a few series. Last week, I'm pretty sure Sean

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Speaker 5: mcvayh has said Stafford and all of his starters to

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Speaker 5: Laguna Beach for the next month, and is not even

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Speaker 5: bothering anything with that.

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Speaker 4: But you know it's interesting.

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Speaker 5: From a betting perspective, I don't take much from the preseason,

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Speaker 5: unless if it's like a rookie.

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Speaker 4: Let's say, let's think.

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Speaker 5: Brian Robinson, for example, in Washington where I look, I

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Speaker 5: think Brian Robinson based off the camp reports, based off

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Speaker 5: his performance in game one of the preseason, we might

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Speaker 5: see more of Brian Robinson and maybe he's worth a

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Speaker 5: bet down the board in an offensive Rookie of the

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Speaker 5: Year or from And Matt would know better than me.

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Speaker 5: From a fantasy perspective, maybe Brian Robinson, who is a

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Speaker 5: fringe guy in a fantasy draft, maybe you want to

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Speaker 5: take him a little bit earlier than you were planning

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Speaker 5: on possibly taking him instead of helping he gets through.

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Speaker 4: The waiver wire after the draft for you.

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Speaker 5: So that's really the only things I really look at

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Speaker 5: are rookies that are over that are overachieving, which sometimes

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Speaker 5: that doesn't work.

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Speaker 4: Not everyone is like Vic their crews back in the day,

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Speaker 4: tom as.

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Speaker 5: We know, but there's you just can't overreact to preseason.

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Speaker 5: Some teams that are gonna be really good are gonna

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Speaker 5: look like crap, and some teams that are gonna be

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Speaker 5: really bad are gonna look very good in the preseason.

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Speaker 2: It's true.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure the Lions when the owen.

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Speaker 4: C that preseason so too. Yeah, they win win us.

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Speaker 1: And rookie hype. I mean, we're all familiar with it,

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Speaker 1: especially from last year. Remember when Jamar Chase couldn't catch

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Speaker 1: a football and everybody was riding him off as a bust.

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Speaker 2: How'd that go?

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Speaker 3: Matt?

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Speaker 2: How about you?

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Speaker 1: What are what are some of the things that you

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Speaker 1: look at? Are you weighing preseason hype? Are you completely

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Speaker 1: dismissing it?

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Speaker 4: Obviously?

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Speaker 2: The answer why somewhere in the middle.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. In terms of what happens in the actual preseason games,

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Speaker 3: I'm not focusing on that all that much, with the

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Speaker 3: exception of maybe, like how can he Pikett plays? You know,

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Speaker 3: so that might give us some insight into whether he

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Speaker 3: might start in Week one if he actually you know,

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Speaker 3: wins the starting job or not, and so you know

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Speaker 3: that has some impact there. But for the most part,

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Speaker 3: it's nothing about the games. It's about some of the

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Speaker 3: beat reports that we get and not, you know, not

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Speaker 3: highlight plays on Twitter or anything like that. But you

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Speaker 3: know established long term beat reporters and what they are seeing,

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Speaker 3: and you know, in certain key situations. So for instance,

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Speaker 3: if there's something new like the Patriots offense right, or

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Speaker 3: if there's something new like the Vikings offense. Situations where

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Speaker 3: there's uncertainty, if we get multiple reporters pointing in one direction,

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Speaker 3: then I would probably not always, but I'd be inclined

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Speaker 3: to make a tweak to my seasonal power ratings. And

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Speaker 3: because I'm using my power ratings to drive my projected

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Speaker 3: wind totals, there would be you know, fallout from that.

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Speaker 3: But for the most part, you know, you're you're taking

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Speaker 3: note of things. You're you're literally, at least me making

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Speaker 3: notes in my spreadsheet to say, like, okay, track this

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Speaker 3: when the season starts, you know, see if what we

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Speaker 3: have heard in camp is something that actually lines up

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Speaker 3: with what we're seeing now in week one. But I'm

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Speaker 3: not making too many movements on any camp news, and

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Speaker 3: when they are movements, they're very short movements.

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Speaker 1: And now guys, let's dive into some actual win total

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Speaker 1: discussions here. But the number one thing that people need

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Speaker 1: to know when they're trying to bet wind totals what's

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Speaker 1: the process, Like, what is it that you're doing when

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Speaker 1: you're evaluating these teams and getting you to your conclusions

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Speaker 1: of I like this number, Jeff, when you sit down

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Speaker 1: and you say, I want to evaluate some wind totals,

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Speaker 1: I want to make some of these season bets. What's

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Speaker 1: the first thing that you're looking at when you're going

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Speaker 1: to these teams and trying to pick out a number

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Speaker 1: that you like.

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Speaker 5: So, Tom, you may think this is partially psychotic the

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Speaker 5: way that I do this, and I do this very

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Speaker 5: differently because there are people that are model based, and

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Speaker 5: there are some things that I'm model based, but the NFL,

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Speaker 5: I'm just not just not the way that I bet it.

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Speaker 5: Over the years, whenever that schedule is released in April

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Speaker 5: or May or whenever the hell it's released, I look

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Speaker 5: at it at first, just look through orids are gonna

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Speaker 5: be tough stretches for some teams. These are teams that

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Speaker 5: may have easier stretches through the year. And then actually

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Speaker 5: I did this two weeks ago before the preseason, and

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Speaker 5: then I'll do one more version. It's a little more sturdy.

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Speaker 5: After the preseason games are done. I will go through

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Speaker 5: every single regular season game and I will make a

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Speaker 5: pick on every single regular season game before the season.

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Speaker 5: That's how I look at this and look, there are

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Speaker 5: some teams that, again, like let's take the Chiefs for

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Speaker 5: a second, the way that I had went through them,

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Speaker 5: I had them where I had them with one, go

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Speaker 5: through at them with ten.

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Speaker 4: I imagine when I have to go through a little bit,

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Speaker 4: I'll have them at eleven.

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Speaker 5: Their win totals ten and a half, so that obviously

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Speaker 5: would not trigger a bet for me. But they're one

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Speaker 5: of those teams that you monitor for maybe an in

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Speaker 5: season win total because their first seven games are absolutely horrendous.

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Speaker 5: They're so hard the first seven weeks of the season,

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Speaker 5: So maybe you look at that and say, oh, maybe

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Speaker 5: if the Chiefs are like three and four after seven games,

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Speaker 5: maybe I'm gonna look for a in season win total.

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Speaker 5: So that's part of the reason that I go through

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Speaker 5: all these games where all, right, there was something I

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Speaker 5: know I'm gonna.

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Speaker 4: Have to take preseason.

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Speaker 5: But there are gonna be some teams that I look

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Speaker 5: at like, h, this team's gonna be good to attack

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Speaker 5: for an in season over like Denver last year, the Giants,

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Speaker 5: the Jags, and the Jets. Their win total went to ten.

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Speaker 5: They won those three games against those three horrible teams

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Speaker 5: easy under. They didn't even get through their preseason total.

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Speaker 5: So that's part of the reason that I go through

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Speaker 5: every single game, every single team schedule, because now in

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Speaker 5: the climb and we're in betting wise, it's not just

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Speaker 5: preseason win totals, it's in season win totals that you

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Speaker 5: can really attack and knowing a team schedule that's very

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Speaker 5: important going into a year.

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Speaker 2: Matt, what say you, what does your process start off with?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I like that analysis that that Jeff had their

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Speaker 3: looking at the actual week to week schedule for each team.

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Speaker 3: I have a piece at Betting Pros that does that

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Speaker 3: looks at some of the harder stretches, easier stretches of

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Speaker 3: the season, and yeah, I think that's pretty sharp. If

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Speaker 3: there's a team that you think you're close on but

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Speaker 3: maybe not quite there, look to bet them at an

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Speaker 3: opportune time in the season based on their schedule in

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Speaker 3: terms of, you know, before the season starts, trying to

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Speaker 3: think about the bets that I want to make. You know,

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Speaker 3: I mentioned earlier, I have, you know, a power ratings system.

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Speaker 3: I have a model that I've created, Model I'm using

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Speaker 3: you know, air quotes there. It's a spreadsheet. I'm not

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Speaker 3: doing anything fancy. It's a multi colored spreadsheet, in all

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Speaker 3: fairness to myself, but it's a spreadsheet.

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Speaker 1: You're using that laptop that smokes when you have two

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Speaker 1: Google tabs to run all those calculations.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. With the new laptop, maybe I'll be able

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Speaker 3: to have multiple tabs open at once and we'll really

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Speaker 3: be cooking with gas. But you know, so this quote

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Speaker 3: unquote model, you know, it takes into account home field advantage,

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Speaker 3: a number of other factors, you know, And with that,

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Speaker 3: I create a projected spread for every single game, and

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Speaker 3: then I convert those spreads to win total probabilities. Add

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Speaker 3: it all up, and that gives me projected win totals.

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Speaker 3: If I'm going negative on a team, uh, then I'm

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Speaker 3: fine with, you know, obviously betting the under on a

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Speaker 3: win total. However, if I'm feeling positive, what I would

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Speaker 3: probably do rather than bet the over is try to

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Speaker 3: leverage that into something a little bit better, you know,

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Speaker 3: like division winner, conference winner, something like that. You know,

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Speaker 3: like they're there are only there are only so many

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Speaker 3: ways to fade a team, and you know, betting the

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Speaker 3: under on the wind total is you know, the main

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Speaker 3: way to do that, But there are lots of ways

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Speaker 3: to be bullish on a team. So if you're going

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Speaker 3: to wrap up your money for six months, I'm going

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Speaker 3: to shoot. If I'm pessimistic, you know, shoot for the downside,

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Speaker 3: that's fine. But if I'm optimistic, I'm gonna shoot for

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Speaker 3: you know, a significant ceiling more than just Hey, I'm

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Speaker 3: I'm laying you know, minus one ten and you know

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Speaker 3: I'm getting back one hundred dollars one hundred and ten dollars.

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Speaker 3: Bet Like, I'm going to try to be a little

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Speaker 3: bit bigger on that. So that factors into the way

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Speaker 3: that I look at this, you know, and maybe if

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Speaker 3: I really just like a team, I will look in

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Speaker 3: the alternative markets and take a lower wind total on

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Speaker 3: the under four plus odds.

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Speaker 2: And you hit on a great point there.

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Speaker 1: My biggest problem with win totals is when you're looking

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Speaker 1: in that positive market, like you said, you're locking up

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Speaker 1: your money for six months, and I'm doing it on

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Speaker 1: a minus one ten plus one twenty that kind of bet,

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Speaker 1: I'm not getting the kind of payout that I'm.

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Speaker 2: Looking for in some of these other futures markets.

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Speaker 1: The flip side of it, of course, is it's easier

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Speaker 1: to pick a yes or no than it is to

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Speaker 1: pick a division winner versus a super Bowl winner.

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Speaker 2: But still, I think that's.

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Speaker 1: A great point about wanting to be able to look

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Speaker 1: and take your positive feelings about a team and try

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Speaker 1: and lay them in a form that's going to get

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Speaker 1: you better value overall. And Jeff, you made a fantastic

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Speaker 1: point about those in season teams as well. Well, is

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Speaker 1: there anyone that you're already looking to when you see

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Speaker 1: the schedule and you say, oh, hey, this might be

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Speaker 1: a team that has a potential in season opportunity.

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Speaker 2: What are the things they're looking for there?

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Speaker 4: Well, let's take Kansas City for example.

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Speaker 5: We'll go on the flip side here with just the

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Speaker 5: absolute brutality of a schedule where Kansas City plays seven

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Speaker 5: straight games against teams that I would not be surprised

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Speaker 5: if both seven of them are in the postseason when

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Speaker 5: this is all said and done. Arizona Week one is

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Speaker 5: the weakest opponent they played to me in the first

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Speaker 5: seven games. That is brutal anyway you slices that is brutal.

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Speaker 5: But that's really what I that's the team that stood

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Speaker 5: at the most where look it's the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: It is Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 5: Could Patrick Mahomes be Patrick Mahomes and they go five

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Speaker 5: and two in those brutal seven games, of course, and

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Speaker 5: it blows up my preseason handicap. But that's a team

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Speaker 5: I'm really eyeballing for sure, where they get off to

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Speaker 5: a start which is really bad for them, but then

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Speaker 5: they get hot Winterers, schedule gets a little bit better

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Speaker 5: and then Tom unfortunately for us, another team I'm gonna monitor.

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Speaker 4: It's our Jets.

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Speaker 5: I mean that scheduled is just so brutal through the

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Speaker 5: first eight week, nine weeks, and then they play had

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Speaker 5: New England after the buy and they're not going to

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Speaker 5: be favored in a game until they see the Bears

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Speaker 5: that MetLife in late November. It is possible to Jets

288
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Speaker 5: get out one in eight, two and seven and then

289
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Speaker 5: have a nice easier schedule where they get the likes

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Speaker 5: of Chicago, Detroit, and Jacksonville all a home, so you

291
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Speaker 5: could see a Jet win total collapse all the way

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Speaker 5: to three and a half, and then, in classic Jet fashion,

293
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Speaker 5: to scre up the draft pick, they win for of

294
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Speaker 5: their last seven games and end up with five wins

295
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Speaker 5: and end up basically right on the win total that

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Speaker 5: they have right now.

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Speaker 4: So that's another team. I really I look at teams

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Speaker 4: that are gonna get off to these tough starts and

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Speaker 4: then be better later in the year. There's not as

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Speaker 4: many this year.

301
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Speaker 5: Like Denver was the one last year where three games

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Speaker 5: against bad teams right away, win total goes to ten.

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Speaker 5: They win the three games are supposed to go against

304
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Speaker 5: bad teams easy under. There aren't as many like that

305
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Speaker 5: this year that stand out to me.

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Speaker 4: Tom, So I'm.

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Speaker 5: Really looking for the teams with brutal schedules earlier to

308
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Speaker 5: bet them over win. Their win total crashes a lot

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Speaker 5: more than it should.

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Speaker 1: Now, how about pre flop Before we get you out

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Speaker 1: of here, Jeff, I want to know, are there any

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Speaker 1: teams that you're keeping your eye on or that bets

313
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Speaker 1: you've already placed for some season win totals here?

314
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Speaker 5: Yes, I'm already in on two and I'm probably gonna

315
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Speaker 5: go back to the well on this one.

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Speaker 4: I love the Las Vegas Raiders this year. Now.

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Speaker 5: There are obviously concerns about their secondary which is pretty weak.

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Speaker 4: As we know.

319
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Speaker 5: We saw it get a burnt a few times last year.

320
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Speaker 5: They didn't do enough as much as I would have liked.

321
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Speaker 5: But the one thing that the Raiders did, and we

322
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Speaker 5: usually see this with teams that define numbers, define the

323
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Speaker 5: analytics when they make the postseason, and the Raiders did

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Speaker 5: that last year.

325
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Speaker 4: They were not a tam by the numbers.

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Speaker 5: But the Raiders, instead of being able to be going

327
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Speaker 5: out there and saying, you know, we're good enough, we

328
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Speaker 5: made the playoffs, we don't need to change things, they

329
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Speaker 5: went out and traded for Devonte Adams. They went out

330
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Speaker 5: and got Chandler Jones, who's arguably the best pass rusher

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Speaker 5: on the board in free agency this year. Their offensive

332
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Speaker 5: line is I think gonna be better than it was

333
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Speaker 5: a year ago as well.

334
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Speaker 4: So they went.

335
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Speaker 5: Out there and made themselves better. I know they're in

336
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Speaker 5: the toughest division on paper that we've ever seen going

337
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Speaker 5: into a season, but for me, they're going over five hundred,

338
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Speaker 5: they're making the playoffs yet again, So over eight and

339
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Speaker 5: a half is one that I really like.

340
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Speaker 1: And how about anyone else here? I know that Matt

341
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Speaker 1: has some thoughts on the Raiders. We'll get into some

342
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Speaker 1: We'll get into some of those with our win total

343
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Speaker 1: drafts here? But is there any other team that you're

344
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Speaker 1: looking at here?

345
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Speaker 5: Yeah, so the juice has moved here through the offseason.

346
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Speaker 5: I like Commanders under I have eight and a half

347
00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:58,880
Speaker 5: at better juice than what is out there right now.

348
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Speaker 5: But I think that if you can even like minus

349
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:05,080
Speaker 5: won seventy a FanDuel is a lot of juice to

350
00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 5: lay on a full season bet. But I know their

351
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,200
Speaker 5: schedule is easy, but it's Carson Wentz. Guys, like, are

352
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 5: we really expecting Carson Wentz to go over five hundred

353
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,840
Speaker 5: with a with a roster that is worse than what

354
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 5: he had in India? I mean, Jonathan Taylor, if it

355
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:21,720
Speaker 5: wasn't for Cooper Cup basically turning into Jerry Rice last year,

356
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,480
Speaker 5: Jonathan Taylor runs away with.

357
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Speaker 4: Offensive Player of the Year.

358
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Speaker 5: But I just I just don't see it with Washington,

359
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 5: even two years ago when their defense was awesome.

360
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Speaker 4: I know the quarterback.

361
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:38,280
Speaker 5: Situation was all was was Alex Smith somehow being able

362
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,480
Speaker 5: to play after that grizzly leg injury, and Heineke was

363
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 5: what they had.

364
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 4: He still only won seven games in a regular season.

365
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 5: I don't see how to go over five hundred, So

366
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Speaker 5: under eight and a half I think is really good

367
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:50,840
Speaker 5: even with a lot of Jews. And I like under

368
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 5: eight if you're more If you want to just take

369
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 5: under eight at a better number, I have no problem with that.

370
00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,840
Speaker 5: This team, to me is seven wins max, even with

371
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,200
Speaker 5: a schedule that is pretty manageable.

372
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 2: Matt Any thoughts here on the commis.

373
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,320
Speaker 3: I haven't met seven point four in the projection, so

374
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 3: I'm not betting it. But I mean I can tell

375
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 3: you if I'm leaning in a direction, it's hard to

376
00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:16,720
Speaker 3: be under. You know, like, I'm not optimistic about this

377
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:18,120
Speaker 3: team at all. I think they're one of the worst

378
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Speaker 3: in the league. I am.

379
00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:21,680
Speaker 5: By the way, Tom, I want one more out there

380
00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 5: that I haven't bet yet that may catch you guys

381
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:28,560
Speaker 5: off off here and Aaron Shots of Football Outsiders put

382
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:32,120
Speaker 5: this as his favorite season win total in the AFC, and.

383
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 4: After going through it a little bit more, I actually

384
00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:35,200
Speaker 4: kind of agree with him.

385
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:36,920
Speaker 2: I know what you're about to say.

386
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,679
Speaker 4: The Houston Texans over four and a half. Now, I

387
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:41,640
Speaker 4: will say this. I'm not saying that Texans is gonna

388
00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,320
Speaker 4: be good. They're still gonna be bad.

389
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 5: But we see every year we see one bad team

390
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 5: always win, always go oh wait a second, How the

391
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 5: hell did this team win seven games of the minus

392
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 5: one hundred and fifty point differential we see it every year.

393
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,239
Speaker 5: One team manages to do that every year, And I

394
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,680
Speaker 5: was going between them and Seattle being the two teams

395
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,439
Speaker 5: that would more than likely be the crappy team with

396
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,560
Speaker 5: a horrible point differential that goes over their win total.

397
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,640
Speaker 5: But playing in that division where you get two games

398
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,159
Speaker 5: against Jacksonville, where there are something that people that are

399
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,280
Speaker 5: really buying Jacksonville improving, I'm not there yet. I'm scared

400
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 5: that Lawrence is not what we think he was when

401
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 5: he was drafted two years ago.

402
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 4: But I just have a weird feeling with Houston.

403
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 5: That Davis Mills was the second best rookie quarterback last

404
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,879
Speaker 5: year by the numbers, which is absurd saying, but you

405
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 5: look at numbers, it's true. Lovey Smith is an improvement

406
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:35,680
Speaker 5: over David Cully at head coach.

407
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 4: And if that.

408
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,400
Speaker 5: Defense, even though Derek Stingly probably walks in and becomes

409
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 5: the best to play on that defense right away.

410
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 4: Being the third overall pick, their.

411
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 5: Schedule is easy enough where they can pick off a

412
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:48,760
Speaker 5: few games, Like you're telling me they can't win a

413
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 5: game in Chicago tell me that they can't beat the Giants.

414
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 5: I mean they can get the five or even six

415
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 5: with a horrible point differential. So I kind of like

416
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 5: caston over four and a half. I haven't had the

417
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 5: fortitude the betit yet.

418
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 4: But I probably will have that by the time the

419
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 4: season starts, because that number not going anywhere. People are

420
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 4: not going to bet host number four and a half.

421
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 3: I can tell you that, you know, I actually I

422
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 3: like that call quite a bit. And I will say

423
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 3: I have Houston Power rated as one of the worst

424
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 3: teams in the league, and still even with that, I

425
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 3: have them as a team to you know, quote unquote

426
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 3: bet on for three of the games this year. I

427
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 3: think the market is too low on them. And when

428
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:33,679
Speaker 3: I did my projections for the win totals, I have

429
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 3: to say I haven't projected at five and a half,

430
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,879
Speaker 3: which scared me. Oh, I don't want to bet that.

431
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say, like, and that's what's what the

432
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 3: number says. But I don't want to bet it because

433
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 3: I feel like a team, you know, season turns, it

434
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 3: gets into tank mode. You know, they're they're fighting for

435
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 3: that number one overall pick. You know, quote unquote fighting

436
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 3: for that number one overall pick. I just don't want

437
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 3: to be betting on the over on a team that

438
00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 3: could be incentivized to get the under. But I mean,

439
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,680
Speaker 3: I'm just looking at it now, and I'm with you

440
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 3: preseason based on the you know, what I perceive is

441
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:11,719
Speaker 3: the strength of this team and the weakness of their schedule. Yeah,

442
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 3: I can see how they go over.

443
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, Houston getting eight is my favorite bet of Week

444
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 4: one right now.

445
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, that's that just that, just again, maybe

446
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 5: I'm buying into a little bit of my preseason thoughts

447
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 5: on the Texans, but we've seen seen Indianapolis screw up

448
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 5: that game against graphic teams twenty at times, and you're

449
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,880
Speaker 5: gonna give me over a touchdown with a home team

450
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 5: no matter how bad they may look on paper. That's

451
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 5: that's That's a bet Week one for me, which I'm

452
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 5: sure i'll regret by about two o'clock Eastern time on

453
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:45,120
Speaker 5: that first Sunday.

454
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 1: The thing I'm looking at is, you look at their division.

455
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 1: You've got six winnable games, your totals four and a half,

456
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,160
Speaker 1: and you have six winnable games in your division. Are

457
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,679
Speaker 1: you gonna sweep the division? Now probably no, of course,

458
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: but you're already starting out playing in the absolute turd

459
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,439
Speaker 1: in the punch bowl of the NFL. You have a

460
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 1: fighting shot there. I like that four and a half

461
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 1: because of that, and nudge, nudge, wink wink. Might get

462
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: into that in a little bit when we're talking about

463
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 1: some of these other teams. But Jeff, thank you so

464
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 1: much for joining us here today. Where could people find

465
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 1: you in all the great work you're doing.

466
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 4: Sure at Jeff Parls on the tweets.

467
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 5: Vsen is where you find me, and I'll be on

468
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 5: Betting Cross America on Sunday this week at three o'clock

469
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 5: Eastern time. You can find me on with Gil Alexander

470
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 5: on a Numbers game as well ten o'clock Eastern time

471
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 5: Monday through Friday as well.

472
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 1: All right, well you tell Gil I said hello, and Jeff,

473
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us today.

474
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 4: Gentlemen, thank you very much.

475
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 1: Real quick, I want to remind people here that we've

476
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,520
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477
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479
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480
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Speaker 1: Dot Run your Pool dot Com slash betting Pros. Sign

481
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,640
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482
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: We'll keep track of the leaders week to week here

483
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: on the show. And in addition to bragging rights against

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490
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Speaker 1: today and get ready for week one. At play dot

491
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492
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 2: Run your Pool is the home of.

493
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Speaker 1: them out at run your Pool dot com today. All right, Matt,

502
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 1: it's time for us to make some predictions.

503
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:00,640
Speaker 4: Here.

504
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 1: We're going to go with a win total draft five rounds,

505
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: we each pick five teams, and at the end of

506
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 1: the season we can look back on how wrong we were. Now,

507
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: you are the king of content, so I am going

508
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 1: to defer to you for the first pick.

509
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: Here.

510
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: We'll go snake style, so I'll get two three. Who

511
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: is the first team up on your board?

512
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 3: All right, well, I think you're going to rue the

513
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: day that you gave me the number one pick, because

514
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 3: I think we both know where I'm going, and it's

515
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 3: I'm imagining the pick that you would probably want at

516
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 3: number one, and it's the Lions. I'm taking the over obviously,

517
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 3: not the under. I'm taking the over. The Lions in

518
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: my power ratings, are you know, one of the teams

519
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 3: that I am higher on relative to the market that

520
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 3: exists out there. Not They're the second team, the number

521
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 3: two team in which I am high relative to the market.

522
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 3: That first team, I think I'll be able to get

523
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 3: their win total a little bit later in the draft,

524
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 3: So I'm going with the Lions. That number is six

525
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 3: six and a half, six and a half at most books,

526
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 3: six at Caesars. I'm gonna take the six and a

527
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 3: half minus one twenty at DraftKings because I've got this

528
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 3: projected at seven point four. There's a lot, a lot

529
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 3: that I think we should like about this team, and

530
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 3: I did write a piece on the win totals at

531
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 3: Betting Pros and so you can check that out more

532
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: for details. But I will say I'll give a little

533
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,479
Speaker 3: bit of a I guess it's not really a teaser.

534
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 3: I'll give the breakdown here. I mean the Lions last

535
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 3: year eleven and five, eleven and six actually against the

536
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 3: spread overall, four and one against the spread versus teams

537
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 3: with winning percentages above five hundred. They have a top

538
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 3: ten offensive line, and that's being conservative. Honestly, I think

539
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 3: it's more like a top five, top three offensive line.

540
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 3: They have improved skill positions across the board, and they

541
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 3: have a defense that I think could be better this year,

542
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 3: given that they added two pretty athletic edge rushers in

543
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 3: Aiden Hudginson and Josh Pascal. So over six and a

544
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 3: half they have the Bears. You know, I just don't

545
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 3: want to say just chalk that up as two wins

546
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 3: right away. But you know, they've got good matchups against

547
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 3: the Bears, and they were a team that underperformed last

548
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: year and so they have an advantageous scheduled this year,

549
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 3: and I think the team takes a step forward. So

550
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 3: over six and a half the Lions, I have to

551
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 3: say they are a chalky team, like people are on

552
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 3: their totals, you know, betting Dan Campbell to win Coach

553
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 3: of the Year. But it's the Hard Knocks hype, Yeah,

554
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 3: I think it's I think it's a situation where the

555
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 3: chalk hits.

556
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 4: Yeah.

557
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 2: I have not watched a minute of Hard Knocks.

558
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: I'm not being affected by the HBO hype machine around

559
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 1: this team right now, but completely with you this. This

560
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: is the number one pick I had on my board too.

561
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,479
Speaker 1: The thing for me is the fact that they lost

562
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 1: or tied seven games last season by a touchdown or less,

563
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: and to me, that means positive aggression.

564
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 3: Yeah.

565
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 1: I feel like every single time that you see a

566
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: team do that the next season they are a good

567
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 1: team and they don't have to be a great team here,

568
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: they just have to get you over seven. And I

569
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: love this offense, like you've got DeAndre Swift TJ. Hockinson.

570
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 1: I'm on Ross Saint Brown. Jamison Williams is gonna be

571
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: great when he gets in that lineup. And it's not

572
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: like Jared Goff can't do good things. He made a

573
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 1: Super Bowl for crying out loud. Combine all that, like,

574
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 1: when he's comfortable in the pocket, he can be a

575
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 1: serviceable quarterback. And I think that's what you're gonna get

576
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: this season. Like you said, defense has some question marks,

577
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: but they've got the fifth easiest strength of schedule this

578
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 1: season two playing the NFC and AFC East and the Jaguars.

579
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 2: I like that a lot.

580
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 1: I like the options, and the second half of their

581
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 1: schedule is also super friendly. In the second half, you've

582
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: got the Giants, Jags, Jets, Panthers, and Bears twice. All

583
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 1: six of those are winnable games right there. So if

584
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: you can get two or three in the front half

585
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 1: of the season, I feel like you're sitting pretty in

586
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 1: the second half.

587
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it. We're on the same page there

588
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 3: all right.

589
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 1: My pick is going to be, as Jeff mentioned them,

590
00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 1: the Texans over four and a half at even over

591
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: at DraftKings.

592
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 2: I believe in general Mills.

593
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 1: Yes, the Texans were horrendous early on last season down

594
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 1: the stretch nearly swept the Titans, destroyed the Chargers, and

595
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: beat the Jags.

596
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 2: You had four wins last.

597
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: Season, and you're telling me this team isn't improved enough

598
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 1: to get over that this year. Their schedule isn't great.

599
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 1: But here's something that really interested me. They're not actually

600
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 1: that young. They have one of the oldest rosters in

601
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: the league, which is weird for a rebuild, but it

602
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 1: means they have a lot of veterans who are gonna

603
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 1: know how to play football. And you still have Brandon

604
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 1: Cooks on that offense. And I think Mills takes a

605
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 1: step forward in year two. And with Lovey Smith at

606
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 1: the Helm again, like Jeff said, you've got better coaching there,

607
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 1: and you play the weakest division of football. You get

608
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: to play Jacksonville twice, the Titans are most likely gonna

609
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: take a step back. And to be quite frank, I'm

610
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: betting this team to win the division at twenty five

611
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 1: to one. Wow, is it gonna hit? Probably not, But

612
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: should it be twenty five to one? I don't think

613
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 1: so at all. You're one Matt Ryan an injury away

614
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 1: from a wide open shot here for this team, there's

615
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: no reason that it can't be done. Will it be done,

616
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: probably not, but I think they get over four and

617
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: a half games easy.

618
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: Well, there are some reasons why it won't be done.

619
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 3: But I mean, as I mentioned earlier, you know, my

620
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 3: model has this as five and a half, which I

621
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 3: just I don't have the fortitude to bet the over

622
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 3: on it, but I mean it looks like there's value there.

623
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's the way I'm going with it here

624
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:29,479
Speaker 1: at even money.

625
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 3: There are worst.

626
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: Bets that I can make this season, and I four

627
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 1: and a half just seems like such an easy number

628
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: for them to cross over here.

629
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, we're gonna go. Yeah, so that's pick

630
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 3: number two. You got pick number three.

631
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: All right, pick number three. I'm going the other way

632
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: here with another terrible team. I'm going Seahawks under five

633
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: and a half plus one twenty over at DraftKings.

634
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: There my pick at.

635
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: Plus seven point fifty to be the worst team in

636
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: football this season. First off, there is no worst quarterback

637
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: situation in the NFL. If Drew Locke and Gino Smith

638
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: are your answers, the question is what is tanking? You

639
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 1: play the AFC West and the NFC South for your

640
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 1: out of division schedule. I love nothing about that, except

641
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: that you're gonna play the Panthers towards the end of

642
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: the season, when Christian McCaffrey has already hurt and Gino

643
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 1: Smith will win the revenge game against the Jets. Just

644
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: mark that down. But even if you split with the

645
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: forty nine ers, you still need to find two more

646
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: wins on that schedule. I guess you can beat the

647
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: Giants in Week eight, but the back half of the

648
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: schedule is ripe for a team that is trying to

649
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: tank for the first pick. If anyone is winning two

650
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: games and two games only this season, I think it's

651
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: the Seahawks.

652
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 3: All right. I don't disagree with you. I do have

653
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 3: them projected close to their win total, but it is

654
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 3: worth noting that I have them projected for the third

655
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 3: fewest wins overall this year. Like, I think they are

656
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 3: a bad team. They're my number thirty Power rated team,

657
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 3: and honestly, like if someone said they're the worst team

658
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: in the league, like I wouldn't bat an eye at that.

659
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 3: I think their defense is going to be horrendous, and

660
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 3: a quarterback makes or breaks your team and the Seahawks,

661
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 3: as you mentioned a quarterback quote unquote battle between Genosmith

662
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 3: and Drew Locke. I mean, that is one of the worst.

663
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 3: If it's not the worst, it's one of the worst

664
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 3: quarterback situations in the league. Now it's the worst. It's

665
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 3: the worst.

666
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 2: Who hast no one has a worst quarterback situation?

667
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 4: Yeah?

668
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the worst, guys, real quick.

669
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,280
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670
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,320
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671
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,840
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672
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674
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676
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678
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679
00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 3: Okay, uh, good picks there, all right? So I am

680
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 3: on the board. I love this pick here, Titans under

681
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 3: nine and a half minus one thirty five at FanDuel.

682
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 3: I think you know the Titans. I think they're fake.

683
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,959
Speaker 3: You know, I think they got incredibly lucky on the

684
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 3: string of wins that they had last year. So this

685
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 3: feels like a slam dunk to me. And you know,

686
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 3: everything that they have done this year send signals right

687
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 3: that they are in the middle of a miniature rebuild.

688
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 4: Right.

689
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 3: They traded away wide receiver AJ Brown, who is their

690
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 3: most talented young player. They drafted quarterback Malik Willis, who

691
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 3: you know has significant upside and the potential to replace

692
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: either this year or next year aging star to Ryan Tannehill.

693
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 3: They cut their number one cornerback in JANORH Shenkins. They

694
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 3: cut their number two wide receiver in Julio Jones. Running

695
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 3: Back Derrick Henry is twenty eight years old. He's coming

696
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 3: off an injury impacted campaign. His yards after contact per carry,

697
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 3: those have dropped in each of the past two years.

698
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 3: That data is from are As running Back Stats Report

699
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 3: from three point two to two point eight to two

700
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 3: point two last year. Like Derrick Henry, you know, he

701
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 3: feels like an unstoppable player, but he's definitely slowing down.

702
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 3: And the offensive line, which used to be a strength

703
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 3: of this team, is now a weakness. We have that

704
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 3: ranked number thirty in our offensive line rankings after the

705
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 3: offseason departures of right tackle David Quisenberry and left guard

706
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 3: Roger Saffold. You know, this is a bad situation for

707
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 3: the team, and it feels like even though they might

708
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 3: be in a kind of miniature rebuild next year, it

709
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 3: might look like a full on rebuild based on how

710
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 3: things went this year. So I'm very happy to take

711
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 3: under nine and a half.

712
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 1: I'm in complete agreement with you here. I thought about

713
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 1: putting them on my board, didn't end up doing it,

714
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: but I think this team is just as big fake

715
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: as you do. Treylon Burks is not going to replace

716
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,719
Speaker 1: aj Brown right away, and Derrick Henry is going to

717
00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 1: continue to slow down. I have no critiques of you.

718
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 1: And also I'm not betting the win total over of

719
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: any team where their quarterback is probably not going to

720
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: finish off the season like the back half of the schedule.

721
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: If they're not right in the thick of things, they're

722
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: gonna switch to Malik Willis and probably lose more games.

723
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, I think that is very much within the

724
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 3: range of outcomes, And even if that exact outcome doesn't

725
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 3: come to pass, I mean, you can look at the

726
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 3: writing on the wall and see that this is almost

727
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 3: certainly Ryan Tannehill's last year with the team, and so

728
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 3: the team does have incentive to go to Malik Willis.

729
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 3: So yeah, very possible that that happens. Okay, So Titans

730
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 3: under nine and a half, all right, next here, you know,

731
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 3: I know Jeff earlier talked about his optimism for the Raiders.

732
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 3: I'm going to be the perpetual wet blanket and say

733
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 3: it does not happen for the Raiders. I'm going under

734
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 3: eight and a half on their win total. Man, they

735
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: have the third toughest strength of schedule if you just

736
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 3: add up all of the win totals of the teams

737
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: that they are playing this year. So, I mean, we

738
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 3: know that they are in a very tough division, but

739
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 3: I mean it's they have one of the toughest schedules

740
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 3: this year, and in terms of their schedule, some of

741
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 3: the actual mechanics of the schedule. They have a really

742
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 3: unforgiving string of games in weeks eight through fourteen, and

743
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 3: in that stretch they play five of seven games away.

744
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,439
Speaker 3: So weeks eight to nine they travel east for back

745
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 3: to back road games at the Saints and the Jags,

746
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 3: both of those games kick off at one pm Eastern,

747
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 3: so that's not a great situation. They have a Week

748
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 3: ten home game against the Colts, Like that's not a

749
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 3: terribly easy game, and then they have another set of

750
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 3: back to back road games at the Broncos, so playing

751
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: at Elevation and a divisional rematch, and then at the Seahawks.

752
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 3: Now at the Seahawks, I think they're one of the

753
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 3: worst teams in the league, but playing in Seattle against

754
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 3: the Seahawks coming off of their by that's not a

755
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 3: great situation to be in. And then after that, weeks

756
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 3: thirteen and fourteen, they have consecutive games against the two

757
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 3: LA teams, the Rams and the Chargers, both of which

758
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,320
Speaker 3: have top six power ratings. So I think the Raiders

759
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 3: could easily go too and five in that stretch. And

760
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 3: that's before the final four games of the season when

761
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 3: they play the Patriots, Steelers forty nine Ers in Chiefs, Like,

762
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 3: I could see them losing two or three of those games.

763
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 3: And that's just like a little more than half of

764
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 3: the season, Like that doesn't take into account anything that

765
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 3: happens in the first half. So I am very much

766
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 3: on the under here. I mean the Raiders like. I

767
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 3: get the enthusiasm around the team, but I am very

768
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,240
Speaker 3: happy to be taking the under here and it's plus

769
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 3: one ten at DraftKings and Caesars.

770
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 1: Oh, Matt, Matt, Matt, I'm going against you here. I'm

771
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: going with the Raider Nation, my friend, I think the

772
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: way I look at this team, Yes, the schedule is

773
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 1: not easy, but of the teams with a new head

774
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 1: coach this year, I like Josh McDaniels the most. I

775
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 1: think that he's learned a lot from the disaster and

776
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: at Denver, I think he's learned a lot going back

777
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: under Belichick. I've liked everything that I'm seeing from this

778
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: team out of camp, and then I just look at

779
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: the weapons they have. Quite frankly, I am considering making

780
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 1: a bet on them to win the division. The offensive

781
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 1: line worries me still. Alex Leatherwood does not look like

782
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 1: he really has it. He did pop off in the

783
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 1: Charity Raiders Night's softball game, and he's a very cool

784
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 1: guy to talk to. But I don't really trust this

785
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: old line right now, and the secondary still has problems.

786
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 1: But I think they're gonna have one of the best

787
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: d lines in football. You've got Max Crosby and Chandler

788
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: Jones on the edges there. That's going to be very

789
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 1: exciting to see. And then as far as the offense goes,

790
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,760
Speaker 1: you bring in the best receiver in football, you still

791
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 1: have Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller, and then your running

792
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 1: back weapons and Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake. I'm excited

793
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: about that. I'm excited about what that team's gonna be

794
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 1: able to do on offense. Derek Carr was on track,

795
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: in my opinion, to be MVP last season until you

796
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: had to deal with you look, you had to deal

797
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 1: with so much for that team, the John Gruden fiasco,

798
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 1: Henry Ruggs killing someone like once once Darren Waller got

799
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: hurt and Ruggs was in prison. Yeah, of course the

800
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 1: offense is going to go downhill there, But Derek Carr

801
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 1: was on pace to throw for what above five thousand yards.

802
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 2: Last season before that slowdown.

803
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: Now you add in Davante Adams, who he does have

804
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 1: that natural chemistry.

805
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 2: With into that offense.

806
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: I think that Carr is going to be right up

807
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 1: there as a top five quarterback this season, and I

808
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: think that we're going to see some really electric games

809
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 1: from this team.

810
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 3: Tom, if we reunited you with someone that you played

811
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 3: flag football with nine years ago, do you think there

812
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 3: would be any residual chemistry.

813
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 1: What I've seen in camp looks pretty good, all right.

814
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 3: I mean, Davante Adams obviously the best wide receiver in

815
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,879
Speaker 3: the league, great addition, but he's taking a step down,

816
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 3: like obvious step down both at quarterback and you know,

817
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 3: I'm not going to say at play caller, but we

818
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 3: just have to see what the Josh McDaniels offense looks

819
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 3: like in a new environment.

820
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 1: But he's also entering a better offense as far as

821
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 1: the guys around him. I think that it's gonna our.

822
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:19,720
Speaker 2: His number is going to go down this season totally.

823
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 1: But that's also because there are more targets and more

824
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 1: mouths to feed in that offense. Whereas, let's face it,

825
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: you could really you knew if Rogers was throwing the

826
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 1: football it was most likely going to Adams. Now not

827
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 1: so much the case, and I think it's going to

828
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 1: be harder for teams to defend him because of it.

829
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think if you ask people who don't live

830
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 3: in Las Vegas or Oakland or wherever it is that

831
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 3: they live, but they just happen to be Raiders fans.

832
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 3: If you ask just random people, who has the better offense,

833
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 3: the Packers or the Raiders. Probably the Packers.

834
00:38:56,680 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 2: Look quarterback, yes, every other position.

835
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: Running back, yeah, Aaron Jones and aj Dillon are a

836
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 1: better tandem there. But in terms of the passing game,

837
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: you have more weapons. There is more to cover with

838
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 1: the Raiders. No one was afraid of Alan Lazard like

839
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: they are of Darren Waller.

840
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 4: No.

841
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 3: I mean, you're not wrong about that part, but I

842
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 3: think if you have the better quarterback, you probably have

843
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 3: the better passing game.

844
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 1: I'm interested to see what happens, but I think this

845
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 1: team is going to be pretty dang good.

846
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 3: I mean, Tom, if you want go ahead to head

847
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 3: against me, bet the over, you can bet Raiders over

848
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:36,240
Speaker 3: eight and a half.

849
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 2: I actually did consider it.

850
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 1: I was thinking about putting it as one of my

851
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 1: picks here, especially because I needed to sub something out

852
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: after you.

853
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 2: Took the Lions.

854
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 1: But instead I'm going to go in a different direction

855
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 1: that plenty of people are also probably going to disagree with.

856
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 1: I'm take in San Francisco under ten wins at minus

857
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 1: one ten here on DraftKings.

858
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,919
Speaker 2: The forty nine ers are not a good football team.

859
00:39:57,960 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 1: You want to talk about a team that luckbox the

860
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 1: way last season the Titans, Yeah they did, but the

861
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 1: forty nine ers were the luckiest of luckbox teams to

862
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:08,359
Speaker 1: get to the NFC Championship game.

863
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:09,959
Speaker 2: They had no business being there.

864
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 1: You had Jimmy g at quarterback who actively was trying

865
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,479
Speaker 1: to lose you games. I'm convinced there is their team

866
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,720
Speaker 1: one games in spite of their quarterback play last season.

867
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 1: Now you have Trey and out instead. People talk about

868
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 1: how Zach Wilson had a cupcake schedule in college. Trey

869
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: Lance Shre had to deal with some hard competition in

870
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 1: North Dakota State. This guy was so bad as a

871
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:32,919
Speaker 1: rookie he couldn't beat out Jimmy G a guy who

872
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: literally no one wants. I don't care that you have

873
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel George Kittle is a year older. Brandon Ayuk

874
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 1: maybe gets back into the fold.

875
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 2: And as far as.

876
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,439
Speaker 1: Schedule, I simply don't see this team winning ten games. Yes,

877
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 1: the defense is going to be good. I think good

878
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 1: enough to win six games, seven games, but I think

879
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 1: the Bears can come out in surprise him in Week

880
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,319
Speaker 1: one in Chicago. You play the AFC West, which could

881
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: easily be four losses right there. Then you play the

882
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 1: NFC South, which yes, is a mix bag. You get

883
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 1: the Saints and Bucks. Thos gonna be tough games. I'm

884
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: not saying this game wins two. This team wins two games,

885
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 1: but ten with a quarterback who, for all intents and

886
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 1: purposes as a rookie. You talk about teams like the

887
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 1: Bengals win totals at nine and a half, people really

888
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 1: think that they're gonna regress harder than the forty nine

889
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:19,359
Speaker 1: ers this year.

890
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 2: I don't see it.

891
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 1: I think that this is a seven win team, eight

892
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 1: wins max ten. I'm taken under all that.

893
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:32,320
Speaker 3: Wow, the heat from thinking that the Bears beat the

894
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 3: forty nine ers and that maybe they win six or seven.

895
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 3: I don't know. I can see. I'll just say, you know,

896
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 3: teasing week one, Yeah, I can see betting on the

897
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 3: Bears in Week one against the forty nine ers. I

898
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 3: can see that for sure.

899
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 2: I'm definitely taking the touchdown with them.

900
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, Bears at home, I see it. Yeah, Bears beating them.

901
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 3: I don't see it. I don't think there's a lot

902
00:41:56,440 --> 00:42:00,320
Speaker 3: that's wrong with the analysis. I just wantn't bet it.

903
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 3: I have them projected for nine point nine, so, you know,

904
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: a smidge under the total of ten. But I'm I'm

905
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 3: basically right there with the total. I do think that

906
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 3: Trey Lance is going to end up being a better

907
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 3: quarterback than people expect.

908
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 2: I think it's trash.

909
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, well see, he very well could be. I think

910
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 3: he's uh, you know, to go back in the time machine.

911
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 3: I think he's Steve McNair. I think that's the type

912
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 3: of player he is.

913
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: I mean that's pretty big to be Steve McNair.

914
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it is. But you know, he's got

915
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 3: the draft capital he's comparable with only as.

916
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: The draft capital because that is uh, Shanahan got overruled.

917
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: Shanahan wanted mac Jones.

918
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 3: I'm not going to disagree with you there. I think

919
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:44,280
Speaker 3: we know how I feel about that. Yeah, I think, uh,

920
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 3: I think mac Jones was the pick, and honestly maybe

921
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 3: he should have been the pick. But I still think, uh,

922
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 3: with the playmakers, with the scheme, with his uh just

923
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:56,879
Speaker 3: overall ability. Yeah, I think Trey Lance is okay. Uh,

924
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 3: you know, I've got a bet. In fact, when I

925
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 3: was in Vegas Tom in February after the Super Bowl.

926
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 3: I did make a bet entree Lance eighty to one

927
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 3: to be MVP, so we will see how that goes.

928
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:13,240
Speaker 3: I guess I'm officially invested in Lance, but yeah.

929
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 2: I seem to recall a similar Jalen Hurts bet last year.

930
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 3: Hey, you know what Jalen Hurts wasn't wasn't terrible?

931
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 2: Better suited for this year like this year now.

932
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: I think you have a real good conversation to be

933
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 1: had about Jalen Hurts there. But I am not going

934
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 1: to take the Eagles as my next team here. I

935
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:32,879
Speaker 1: did think about it though.

936
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:33,919
Speaker 2: That's a win total.

937
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 1: If we were to do some rapid fire, I'd definitely

938
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 1: be going Eagles over. But I'm going to take the

939
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 1: Saints over eight and a half at minus one oh five.

940
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: I know Sean Payton is gone, but it's not like

941
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,879
Speaker 1: this team doesn't have continuity in the program here. They're

942
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 1: not changing things up. Go back and watch Jamis's starts

943
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: last season. Fourteen touchdowns to three interceptions in the seven

944
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: games he played before getting hurt, and his receivers last

945
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: year were bad. Like this guy first is never gonna

946
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 1: have a thirty thirty campaign again. He has fixed a

947
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 1: lot of that part of his game, and his receivers.

948
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 1: Remember when Marquez Callaway was the next big thing. They

949
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,879
Speaker 1: were dropping passes all over the place last year. This year,

950
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas is back, Jarvis Landry still has something in

951
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 1: the tank. He looks healthy, and you have Chris Alave

952
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:22,399
Speaker 1: who's expected to be a contributor immediately. And I don't

953
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 1: know that Alvin Kamara gets suspended this year. The way

954
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 1: the NFL is slow playing this, it might not be

955
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 1: until next season. And even then I still think that

956
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: they could survive without him for a few games. But

957
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 1: you boast the ninth easiest strength to schedule. You get

958
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: to play the Falcons and Panthers twice, and for some reason,

959
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,479
Speaker 1: the Saints always have Tampa Brady's number.

960
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 2: Anyway.

961
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 1: You play the NFC NFC West, which I believe is

962
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 1: much weaker than it used to be, and you have

963
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 1: the AFC North, which admittedly means you run into the

964
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Bengals, but it's not a terrible schedule.

965
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 1: With the NFC as weak as it is right now,

966
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: there's no reason the Saints can't.

967
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 2: Be a playoff team.

968
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: I see nine to ten wins as a real possibility

969
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 1: here when I look at the schedule.

970
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's possible. I've been projected for eight

971
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 3: point six, so you know, right around that wind total.

972
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:10,360
Speaker 3: If I had to take aside, I would, you know,

973
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 3: probably lean over, just because that's where my number is indicating.

974
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 3: One thing that gives me a little bit of pause

975
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 3: about Jameis Winston and this is more you know, kind

976
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 3: of thinking week to week and against the spread. This

977
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 3: guy is eight seventeen and one against the spread as

978
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 3: a favorite, like he's just like an underdog. Fine, you know,

979
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 3: like that's the situation to bet on Jamis, but as

980
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 3: a favorite, the dude has just historically crumbled and that

981
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 3: just kind of makes me a little pessimistic about taking

982
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 3: the over on the win total of someone like that.

983
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: I think my thing is that we're looking at a

984
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: really different Jamis than the James that we had in

985
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 1: Tampa where we got to see most of his sample size. Here,

986
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: I genuinely think Sean Payton and Drew Brees had a

987
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 1: real effect on this guy, and I know he's one

988
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 1: of the favorites, the win comeback.

989
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 2: Player of the year.

990
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 1: Honestly, I'm kind of looking around at that eight need

991
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 1: a one price on MVP.

992
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 3: Oh wow, that's that's interesting. I mean he does have

993
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 3: the best receive I mean, okay, not the best receiver unit,

994
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 3: but like very I think underappreciated receiver unit, because Michael Thomas,

995
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 3: if he comes back healthy, he's a real number one

996
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 3: wide receiver. You have Chris o'labbe is a guy who

997
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 3: can play inside and play outside and stretch the field.

998
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 3: And then you've got Jarvis Landry, as you know, just

999
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:29,800
Speaker 3: like a very strong, competent number three receiver. So that

1000
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 3: that is all very good, and the offensive line's pretty

1001
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 3: good too.

1002
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 1: I'm just excited to see Michael Thomas with a quarterback

1003
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 1: who can throw more than five yards. I love Drew Brees,

1004
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:42,399
Speaker 1: one of my all time favorite players. I think he's

1005
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 1: up there on the wall somewhere behind me. But I'm

1006
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 1: excited to see Michael Thomas with a vertical arm here.

1007
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 3: All right. The disrespect, the disrespect, all right. So you

1008
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:54,839
Speaker 3: have forty nine Ers and Saints. That means I am

1009
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 3: up at number eight, and I teased this earlier. I'm

1010
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 3: taking the Chiefs are the team that I am the

1011
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 3: highest on relative to the market right now. And you

1012
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 3: know that feels a little bit shocky, but whatever, I

1013
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 3: don't care. I think too many people are overweighting the

1014
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 3: impact of Tyreek Hill being gone. And it's not just

1015
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill. It's our guy Byron Kringle who is also gone,

1016
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 3: and de Marcus Robinson. But so really it is a

1017
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 3: total rebuild of the wide receiver room there. But I

1018
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:28,880
Speaker 3: really like Juju as the guy who can operate in

1019
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,760
Speaker 3: the middle of the field. I like Marquez Valdez Scantling

1020
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 3: as the field stretcher. Not like a one for one

1021
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 3: substitute of Tyreek Hill, but he can do some of

1022
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:41,880
Speaker 3: the field stretching things that the offense relied on, you know,

1023
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:46,000
Speaker 3: from Tyreek. And then you know Sky Moore as I

1024
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:50,880
Speaker 3: think a upside potential number one receiver in that offense.

1025
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 3: You know, not to mention, you've got Travis Kelce there,

1026
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 3: Isaiah Pacheco as a guy who you know might be

1027
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 3: the number two, but maybe he ends up becoming the

1028
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:02,919
Speaker 3: number one running back in that offense. The offensive line

1029
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 3: is pretty good. I don't know. I'm just gonna say,

1030
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 3: like I trust Andy Reid and I trust Patrick Mahomes.

1031
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 3: That is sort of like the heart of what all

1032
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 3: of this boils down to but Andy Reid historically his

1033
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 3: has outperformed expectations like the win total expectations in Kansas City.

1034
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 3: And I mean, I think nine years now he's been

1035
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 3: the head coach and only twice have they not gone

1036
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 3: over ten and a half wins. So, I know, a

1037
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 3: tough division. That's fine. They're still the Chiefs and they

1038
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 3: still have I think, in my opinion, you know my

1039
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 3: opinion here, but the best quarterback in the league. I

1040
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 3: still think Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league.

1041
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 3: So best head coach in the league, best quarterback in

1042
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 3: the league. Yeah, I'll go over ten and a half.

1043
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 3: I have this projected at eleven point one. That's the

1044
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 3: not quite the highest win total projection that I have,

1045
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 3: but it's a there.

1046
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 1: I'd probably say second best quarterback behind Mitch Trubisky, but

1047
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 1: that's just splitting hairs.

1048
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: They're one and two. They're so close for everybody.

1049
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 1: I'm one of those people that's definitely really down on

1050
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:13,839
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. And then a I look at that win

1051
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: total at ten and a half and I go, do

1052
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: I really see this team only winning nine games? And

1053
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 1: then I also look at that first preseason game those

1054
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 1: couple of drives that we saw when Mahomes is already

1055
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 1: throwing no look passes and stuff, and I just started

1056
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 1: going to myself, Oh.

1057
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 2: They still look really good.

1058
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 1: At ten and a half. I can't bet under that.

1059
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 1: I'd have to go over it. My fears with them are,

1060
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 1: like you talked about this receiving core, They're gonna miss

1061
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill if Travis Kelsey gets hurt. That's this guy's

1062
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 1: the same age as Gronk, And it's entirely possible that

1063
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 1: he starts slowing down, because that has to happen at

1064
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 1: some point. But all of a sudden, you start looking

1065
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 1: around that receiver room and going, Okay, well, Juju doesn't

1066
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 1: really have to be the guy here in this offense.

1067
00:49:58,239 --> 00:49:58,879
Speaker 2: Sky Moore.

1068
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,319
Speaker 1: We know that Derek Brown is so high on him,

1069
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 1: and that's starting to rub off. You can only listen

1070
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 1: to so many times he talks about him before you

1071
00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: start agreeing with it. And yeah, it's still Andy Reid

1072
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes. I think I have to agree with

1073
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 1: you here. I still think that the Raiders are going

1074
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:16,839
Speaker 1: to be right up there with them, but I think

1075
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 1: that they are probably still the best team in that division.

1076
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:20,439
Speaker 2: They're going to end up winning it for sure.

1077
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I'll say, I know, it feels so chocky.

1078
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 3: It'd be like, oh, I'm taking the Chiefs over ten

1079
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 3: and a half way, you know, Like, but the number

1080
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 3: is so good. Yeah, yeah, I think I think it's

1081
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:31,839
Speaker 3: a fair number. You know, by the way, minus one

1082
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 3: fifteen at FanDuel. And I'll just say, like, I tend

1083
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,719
Speaker 3: not to bet overs in the win total market because

1084
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 3: it's an inflated market. So if you added up all

1085
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 3: of the consensus win totals that we have in our

1086
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:47,760
Speaker 3: you know, our betting pros, you know our Betting Pros page,

1087
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:50,400
Speaker 3: you know the odds page for team futures, it's two

1088
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 3: hundred and seventy three point five wins and they are

1089
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 3: only two hundred and seventy two games in the regular season.

1090
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 3: So it's an inflated market, which means there tends to

1091
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 3: be value on the under. So you really have to

1092
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 3: like it over in my opinion to bet the over.

1093
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 3: But I mean, I still like it. You know, Patrick Mahomes.

1094
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 3: As bad as people thought Patrick Mahomes was playing at

1095
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:14,400
Speaker 3: the beginning of last year, the Chiefs were still number

1096
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 3: one overall in offensive success rate, like they're still like

1097
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,800
Speaker 3: an incredible offense, So yeah, I will. I will easily

1098
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 3: take them there. One team I am fading though, up

1099
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 3: near the top, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have the

1100
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 3: highest win total or tied with the Bills for the

1101
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 3: highest win total on the slate eleven and a half.

1102
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,319
Speaker 3: I will go under that minus one twenty five if

1103
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:41,400
Speaker 3: FanDuel and points bet. I like the Bucks in general,

1104
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 3: like I have them as a top four team in

1105
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,480
Speaker 3: my power ratings, but this season, I mean they have

1106
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:49,840
Speaker 3: a number of obstacles that they have to overcome. Like

1107
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:53,840
Speaker 3: Bruce Arians their head coach, he's gone wide receiver, Antonio Brown,

1108
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 3: tight in Rob Gronkowski, edge rusher, Jason Pierre Paul defensive tackle,

1109
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 3: and dominicom To. All of those guys pretty important to

1110
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 3: the team over the past couple of years. They are

1111
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 3: all gone. They also have injuries. Right number two wide

1112
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:11,320
Speaker 3: receiver Chris Godwin. He's probably not going to be ready

1113
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:13,879
Speaker 3: for Week one, even if he is active. I don't

1114
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 3: think we should expect him to be his full Godwin

1115
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:22,240
Speaker 3: self given the ACL injury that he suffered you last

1116
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 3: year in December, and I'd say even more importantly than that,

1117
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 3: center Ryan Jansen, he suffered what might be a season

1118
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:33,240
Speaker 3: ending knee injury in training camp, and so that means

1119
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 3: if he's out, that the entire interior of the offensive

1120
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:39,959
Speaker 3: line is going to have three new starters because left

1121
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 3: guard Ali Marpet he retired, right guard Alex Kappa he

1122
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 3: left for free agency, and so Tom Brady might have

1123
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 3: more interior pressure. And that's like the one thing in

1124
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 3: Brady's career if you could point to, like, what's the

1125
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 3: one thing that could bring Tom Brady down, it is

1126
00:52:57,160 --> 00:53:01,279
Speaker 3: interior pressure. And so a whole new offensive line in

1127
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:05,240
Speaker 3: the interior that feels like the kind of thing that

1128
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 3: that could make Brady regress a little bit. And he's

1129
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:10,759
Speaker 3: forty five years old. Like, I don't want to bet

1130
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 3: against Brady, but like at some point it happened.

1131
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 2: At some point, some point, there's a cliff, right.

1132
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:17,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Time is undefeated.

1133
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:20,839
Speaker 1: I feel like we're gonna Time was undefeated. Brady at

1134
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,080
Speaker 1: this point has beaten Time. I don't care if it

1135
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 1: actually comes to fruition, chalk that up as a w

1136
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:30,879
Speaker 1: for him. It's I feel like we're gonna be saying

1137
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: the same thing in ten years when he's still throwing

1138
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:34,439
Speaker 1: touchdowns at fifty five though.

1139
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, let's hope I have him on my

1140
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:40,439
Speaker 3: dynasty League of record, But I mean eleven and a half,

1141
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:42,800
Speaker 3: given all those things I laid out, that just feels

1142
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 3: really aggressive. So I will take the under there. I

1143
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:51,800
Speaker 3: have that projected for ten point nine, so I will

1144
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 3: I'll take the under there.

1145
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:55,399
Speaker 1: I have a hard time disagreeing with you, Like, yes,

1146
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 1: Tom Brady is such a great mobile threat who can

1147
00:53:57,840 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 1: escape that interior pressure. But I still think that there

1148
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 1: are going to be a lot of problems right there.

1149
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:06,439
Speaker 1: And eleven wins is a lot for a football team.

1150
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 3: In the end, it is a lot. And by the way,

1151
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 3: it correlates with your Saints over eight and a half.

1152
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 3: So you know, if you're thinking you like the Saints,

1153
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:17,839
Speaker 3: I'm thinking I just like the Buccaneers. We're a little

1154
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 3: bit on the same page, all right.

1155
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 1: My last team here, there are a couple of ways

1156
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 1: I could have gone with this. I really hate the

1157
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: Broncos this season. I think they're a six win team.

1158
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 1: I know that's another hot take, but Russell Wilson's moving

1159
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:30,840
Speaker 1: into it. I had to drop it in here. Russell

1160
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:32,800
Speaker 1: Wilson is going to a worse offense.

1161
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 2: That's a fact.

1162
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 1: The defense isn't necessarily a top ten unit. You look

1163
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: at that unit, they don't scream top ten to me.

1164
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 1: They have a couple good pieces, but they also have

1165
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: a couple pieces who are starting to show their age.

1166
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 1: Bradley Chubb was not that great last year. Patrick Surtain

1167
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 1: I think is going to be a great corner in

1168
00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 1: this league for a long time. But overall, I think

1169
00:54:54,680 --> 00:54:56,640
Speaker 1: that unit is a lot shakier, and I think they're

1170
00:54:56,680 --> 00:55:00,720
Speaker 1: definitely the fourth best team in that division. And Russell

1171
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 1: Wilson's a year older too, and now he's got to

1172
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 1: learn a new offense. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Judy are

1173
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:08,480
Speaker 1: not DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. They are a downgrade.

1174
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 1: That's I don't see that as a hot take there,

1175
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:13,879
Speaker 1: but that's not the team I'm gonna go with here.

1176
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 1: I had to take my own Jets under six and eight.

1177
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:20,200
Speaker 1: I can find the total at six and a half.

1178
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:22,800
Speaker 1: You can find the total at six in some places

1179
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:24,920
Speaker 1: with a little more money.

1180
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:26,239
Speaker 2: Here the Jets under the.

1181
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 1: Jets under six even money at circa is where I

1182
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:31,239
Speaker 1: have him, because you can find him at five and

1183
00:55:31,239 --> 00:55:32,920
Speaker 1: a half most spots not six and a half. So

1184
00:55:32,960 --> 00:55:33,760
Speaker 1: six is the best.

1185
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 2: Number I can find on this.

1186
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,880
Speaker 1: And I don't even actually have any notes written up

1187
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 1: for this, because I have been thinking about it for

1188
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:44,760
Speaker 1: the last four or five, six seven months. Zach Wilson,

1189
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 1: as of yesterday, the reports are that his meniscus is okay.

1190
00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:50,319
Speaker 1: He's gonna miss Meke week one, but it's not a

1191
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:53,160
Speaker 1: season ending injury. That is great news for this under

1192
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 1: I was very worried that Zach was going to be

1193
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:58,920
Speaker 1: out for the entire season and we would therefore have

1194
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 1: to go through next season of suffering through more Zach

1195
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 1: Wilson before moving on. And instead, now we can have

1196
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 1: him suck now and move on to the next quarterback

1197
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 1: a year sooner. I think that's really important for this team.

1198
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,000
Speaker 1: But you look at this schedule. Here you have the

1199
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 1: Ravens Week one, the Browns okay, that's winnable, the Bengals,

1200
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 1: the Steelers, the Dolphins, the Packers, the Broncos, the Patriots,

1201
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:23,200
Speaker 1: the Bills, and then you get to your Week ten

1202
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:28,320
Speaker 1: buy that's a one in eight team like maximum going

1203
00:56:28,360 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 1: into that buy. I'm not even that high on the Dolphins.

1204
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna be fantastic, But I don't

1205
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:37,279
Speaker 1: see a single game there outside of the Browns that's

1206
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:40,400
Speaker 1: really winnable. And at that point you're in full on

1207
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 1: tank mode. Now you do have after you get out

1208
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:45,440
Speaker 1: of the by, you have that Patriots game.

1209
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:47,240
Speaker 2: Then you play the Bears at home.

1210
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 1: We'll see I could see Justin Field's running rampant on

1211
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 1: this team by that point. Then you have the Vikings

1212
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 1: that in Minnesota. That's a law is. Then you go

1213
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 1: to Buffalo. I'm sure that's an easy dub. And then

1214
00:56:59,800 --> 00:57:02,279
Speaker 1: you start the last four games here, which is the

1215
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 1: only time that we're gonna get The seat's gonna get

1216
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:06,800
Speaker 1: a little warm. If they have two or three wins

1217
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 1: going into that home stretch, it is prime Jets mess

1218
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 1: up the season's draft pick territory. You got the Lions,

1219
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:16,040
Speaker 1: you got the Jaguars, you got the Seahawks, and you

1220
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:19,360
Speaker 1: got the Dolphins. At least you play the Seahawks in Seattle,

1221
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 1: you play the Jaguars and Lions at home. Those are

1222
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 1: gonna be winnable games to mess up the draft record.

1223
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: But I still don't think you're getting your six wins here.

1224
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 1: The hype around this team is not deserved. Yes, I

1225
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:31,840
Speaker 1: like a lot of the pieces they're putting in place,

1226
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:33,200
Speaker 1: but at the end of the day, it comes down

1227
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: to quarterback, and I don't think Zack Wilson's the guy.

1228
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a very Tom pick. It makes me

1229
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:43,919
Speaker 3: think of when I bet against the Cowboys every week

1230
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 3: last year and hated my life because of it.

1231
00:57:46,520 --> 00:57:49,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, but the difference is you hated your life because

1232
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 1: you were more pissed about the bets. If the Jets

1233
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 1: win eight games this season, that means Zach Wilson might

1234
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 1: be legit and I am thrilled. I am just fine

1235
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 1: losing the bet if the team outlook looks bright.

1236
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this at five point eight, so you know,

1237
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 3: I'm a little bit to the under. I don't think

1238
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 3: there's significant value there. I honestly think that. You know,

1239
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 3: you talked about that tough stretch of games that they have.

1240
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 3: So they head into the Week ten buy off of

1241
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 3: a really brutal stretch right, Week six and seven, back

1242
00:58:20,160 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 3: to back games at the Packers and Broncos, both of

1243
00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:26,000
Speaker 3: those teams I think have elite home field advantages, and

1244
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:28,680
Speaker 3: then they host the Patriots and the Bills. I mean,

1245
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 3: you know, I think they're gonna lose both of those games.

1246
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 3: They could lose all of those games by double digit points.

1247
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:39,240
Speaker 3: I think though, coming out of the buy, because of

1248
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 3: how bad they might look entering the buy, they might

1249
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 3: offer some against the spread betting value. I hate to

1250
00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:48,760
Speaker 3: say that because I never want to be betting on

1251
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:51,240
Speaker 3: the Jets, but you know, we talked with Jeff earlier.

1252
00:58:51,240 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 3: If we're thinking about points in the schedule where there

1253
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:57,479
Speaker 3: might be some betting value on teams, the Jets coming

1254
00:58:57,520 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 3: out of the Week ten by looking like one of

1255
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 3: the worst teams in the league, playing three or four

1256
00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 3: a way, they might offer a little bit of value there,

1257
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 3: But it's not like I'm gonna want to be betting that.

1258
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:10,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree on some of those.

1259
00:59:10,560 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 1: The game after the buye is the Patriots, though, we're

1260
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 1: gonna lose that by forty points.

1261
00:59:15,160 --> 00:59:17,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the Belichick.

1262
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 1: SE's the Jets on the schedule, and he goes, all right,

1263
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 1: I did, especially at that point, it is time to

1264
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 1: stomp them while they're down.

1265
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, gotta be gonna be a tough season there.

1266
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:27,360
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1267
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:29,800
Speaker 2: Well, it's not like I'm not used to it.

1268
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 3: All right, So let's do a quick recap here, right, yes.

1269
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 2: Uh so, I've got let's see, let me pull it

1270
00:59:36,640 --> 00:59:36,880
Speaker 2: up here.

1271
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 1: I've got the Texans over four and a half, the

1272
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,919
Speaker 1: Seahawks under five and a half, forty nine Ers under ten,

1273
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:45,400
Speaker 1: Saints over eight and a half, and the Jets under six.

1274
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 3: All right, I have the Lions over six six and

1275
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 3: a half. I'm taking over six and a half, the

1276
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 3: Titans under nine and a half, the Raiders under eight

1277
00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:56,880
Speaker 3: and a half, the Chiefs over ten and a half,

1278
00:59:57,040 --> 00:59:59,560
Speaker 3: and the Buccaneers under eleven and a half.

1279
01:00:00,480 --> 01:00:02,920
Speaker 1: All right, Well, that is gonna do it for us

1280
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:05,640
Speaker 1: here than Matt made the best man win. I'll set

1281
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 1: a calendar reminder for this for the end of the season,

1282
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 1: but we've got plenty of more exciting things to talk about.

1283
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 2: Guys.

1284
01:00:12,920 --> 01:00:15,320
Speaker 1: Next week's gonna be another banger. We've got an entire

1285
01:00:15,360 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 1: season to look forward to here. Don't forget to head

1286
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:20,200
Speaker 1: to run your pool dot com slash betting pros, join

1287
01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 1: our pick'am contest and get ready for week one to

1288
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 1: go head to head against us. I'm coming for that

1289
01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars Fanatics gift card because if

1290
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:29,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if I even can win it, but

1291
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 1: if I am. I'm getting Matt the worst possible jersey

1292
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 1: I can think of with it, but in the meantime

1293
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:37,480
Speaker 1: that is gonna do it for us here. Follow me

1294
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 1: on Twitter at tv at Work.

1295
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:40,400
Speaker 2: You can find Matt.

1296
01:00:40,160 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 1: At matt Fthe Oracle, and as always, head on over

1297
01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 1: to bettingpros dot com. Follow them on Twitter at Betting

1298
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 1: Pros guys. Best of luck this season, let's cash and tickets.

1299
01:00:52,040 --> 01:01:08,560
Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to that. Zach Wilson Jerseys