1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,640 Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting with fandel because They're 4 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: app is safe, secure and easy to use, and when 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,239 Speaker 1: I win, I get paid fast. So use promo code 6 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: Favorites and download the FanDuel app today to make every 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: moment more this football season. Must be twenty one or 8 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: older and in select states called one eight hundred gambler 9 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 1: or visit FanDuel dot com slash r g in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia one eight hundred next 11 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: step or text next step to five three three F 12 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,520 Speaker 1: two in Arizona one eight eight seven eight nine seven 13 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,160 Speaker 1: seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org slash chat 14 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 1: in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with it in Indiana, 15 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: visit ks gambling help dot com. In Kansas call one 16 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one 17 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope 18 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: and why four seven three six nine. In York, Tennessee, 19 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: redline is one eight eight eight nine eight nine called 20 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 1: one eight hundred five to two four seven zero zero 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,960 Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www dot one eight hundred gambler 22 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome back to the favorites 23 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. I am chab Noman, Chief 24 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined by 25 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: I am in every single episode by my bff, my 26 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: companion Michael Padre, Professional Better Simon Hunter Edo. Simon, You've 27 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: got to say, I know you want to talk about 28 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: the Phillis. I don't Sports equox what a day joke. 29 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: By the way, sports equalnox there is so much to 30 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: bet on today. We got n HL. For those who 31 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: don't know, sports equinox is basically when the four major 32 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: sport are all playing on the same day. It's happened 33 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 1: twenty seven times. It's NHL, n b A, Major League, Baseball, 34 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 1: and NFL. Not that easy to get baseball, NFL, NBA 35 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: and hockey playing at the same time. That's why it's 36 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: an equinox. Doesn't happen that often. I want to welcome 37 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: in our live listeners on AMP. We we love doing 38 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: the show. It's really exciting to do it live. Uh 39 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: and Simon. In today's episode, we're gonna finalize our final 40 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,399 Speaker 1: five or get closer. We'll go over sharp calls, We'll 41 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 1: do Scoot Roulette, will do the money line, Ron Robin. 42 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: I will remind people that on the previous episode we 43 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: gave away Foxhole. Bet was fort plus three. That's now 44 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: two and a half. Simon says Washington plus five and 45 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: a half, it's now four and a half. Exact decision 46 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: was Texans plus seven. That's still seven. We got a 47 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: lot to discuss, Like, there's value in listening to it live. 48 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: So I'm happy for the people that are because if 49 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: they're listening and making the plays that we suggest in 50 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,079 Speaker 1: the moment, you're getting the best of the number. And 51 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: for those who didn't listen live, that's fine. These numbers 52 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 1: started moving like over last night and this morning. You're 53 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: not like penalized by listening to it later. Yeah, and 54 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: enjoy the live show because I have no no doubt 55 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 1: my mind, there's no way agree to this on my 56 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 1: next contract with Chat. I just every show live. Yes, 57 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: enjoy this while it lasts. I just I'm the most 58 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: unprofessional person ever. So if people think this is me 59 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: being while this is as tamed as I can be, 60 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: I promise you um as long as the winning keeps going, 61 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: I could care less, but no more offhand joke, especially 62 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: scientology jokes. I will not mention scientology. This is the 63 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: last time I would say scientology again. Everyone thinks you're 64 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: a Scientology's Chat. You fit the profile to a t. 65 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: You're gonna live forever. You're shady as hell. You're up 66 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Something's going on there? What is shady about me? 67 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: I am the most transparent, authentic. What you see, whizzy 68 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: wig is what you get? Guy? Yeah right, you act 69 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: like this nice weet guy. We all know Chat your killer. 70 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: You fit the profile scientologist serial killer Chad moment. Oh 71 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: my god, that is crazy. I couldn't be more bored. 72 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: My life is exactly as it as it is. It 73 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: was a story, right. There was a story in the 74 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: New York Times this week about how people are drinking less, 75 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 1: a lot of it to do with health and wellness. 76 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: And I thought to myself, I'm drinking less because of 77 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 1: health and wellness, because I want to be able to 78 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: get up in the morning. I want to have a 79 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: good night's sleep. I don't find the value in saying 80 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: how cool it is I got wasted. Don't only slept 81 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 1: for four hours, like I want to sleep for as 82 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: long as I can, and I don't want to get 83 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: up and do my exercise. So you might be right 84 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: about that. If scientology means living well, man, that could 85 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: be a scientiology. Now your vice is gambling. That's a 86 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: good dvice to have. It's true, It's totally true. I 87 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: mentioned sharp calls. That is when are wise guys start 88 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 1: peeing us about out what games we talked about. What's 89 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: interesting about the live stuff is they were pinning you 90 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: when we were talking about the Niners and the chiefs 91 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: of plus three saying bet it right away. They loved it. 92 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: So what else did people call about in our cheff calls? Hello, 93 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking? Maybe? Yeah, I thought that was 94 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: oney that a couple of buddies, Um, a couple of 95 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: the pros download the app, the ampapp and when were 96 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: listening to us live, and as soon as we gave 97 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,159 Speaker 1: out the forty niners, they're just like, that's that's gotta 98 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: be the one. You gotta give that out. So yeah, 99 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: we were luckily on it down to two and a half. Now. Um, 100 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: again we were texting about it. I thought the line 101 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: was gonna move based off the fourty night as injury 102 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: move it was positive. It was positive injury news. The 103 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 1: line moved down. So again, these pros, they're on the 104 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: last week with the Bills. I think maybe the general 105 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: public is too high in the Chiefs and they should be. 106 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 1: I still think the Chiefs are so good. Maybe they're 107 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: just gonna slump here, and that's what the pros are 108 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: betting on, because crazy the book moved the two and 109 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: a half on this number. Like we talked about it, 110 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: every every Joe Schmoll that walks into a casino this 111 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: weekend is going to see a two and a half 112 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: line on a Chiefs team that they envisioned is much 113 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: better than a four and niners team, and everyone's gonna 114 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 1: be taking that. Where Again, it's me and Chad's job 115 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: to look at the other way and what are four 116 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: straints and what are the weaknesses of that Chiefs team. 117 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: And obviously it's the run game that favors his four 118 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:30,159 Speaker 1: Nighters team so heavily against again a run team that's 119 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: not been good stopping the run last three weeks and 120 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: the Chiefs team. So that was a call. I got 121 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: a bunch just a lot of pros love the four 122 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: Niners this week the line movement reflected that. Um, the 123 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: next one what I got called about again the line 124 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: has already moved a decent amount um right when we 125 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 1: talked about it Seattle, Well, hold on to Seattle. Let 126 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: me say one thing about the four and Niners and 127 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, just from a betting perspective. Uh, you mentioned 128 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: the public is going to be all over the Chiefs. 129 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: The bets on the chief right now, and this line 130 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: moved in the opposite direction, went from three to two 131 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,919 Speaker 1: and a half. So that should tell you everything you 132 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: need to know about how much money is coming in 133 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: on the fort And I will say what's interesting is 134 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 1: earlier in the week about of the money was on 135 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: the forty nine on the Chiefs. Now you're seeing that 136 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: percentage shrink because of the forty niners, injury news and 137 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: so much wise gut money has moved this down. So 138 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 1: you're starting to see a real discrepancy here. Yeah, it's 139 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: an old saying. I mean, I'm sure Scooch told you 140 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: a few times. A bookmaker loves to say it. It's 141 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: the pro comes in. They've bet ten thousand, they might 142 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: move a line the public and coming with millions of 143 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: dollars and they'll just keep a line where it's at. 144 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: It's just that's one of the biggest things you look 145 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: for is certain guys moved numbers. The public does not, 146 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: so unless that pro is you or me, And if 147 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: we bet a hundred dollars, the line moves apparently, But again, 148 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: our show gets reaches so many people. Um, I still 149 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: think we do move lines with the show. So yeah, Seattle. 150 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: I was not surprised that pros we're gonna be on it. 151 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: My surprise is more so that the general public would 152 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 1: be so in on Seattle. Where again, it just feels 153 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: like even against the Cardinals, people are betting the Cardinals 154 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 1: on the road against Seattle, I just felt like people 155 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 1: already gotten off the Geno train. They're waiting for the 156 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: other shooter drop and here he is. He opened at seven, 157 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: got down to six and a half, down to six, 158 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 1: now five and a half against the Chargers. So I 159 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 1: had a bunch of guys talking about they loved it 160 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: at six and a half and then we had to 161 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: take that one. So again I'm okay with the number 162 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: rides up at you can go back up the six 163 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: and a half. We would still take in a contest 164 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:35,839 Speaker 1: at six and a half or five and a half, 165 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: if that's what it is. But to me, the six 166 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: and a half is a key number. We talked a 167 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 1: little time now about the extra points. Um, I love 168 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,079 Speaker 1: that number. The last one we weren't again, we weren't 169 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 1: on the Cowboys. A bunch of pros I talked to 170 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 1: love the Cowboys in this match up against Detroit. Yeah, 171 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: which was interesting because again I wouldn't. I wasn't gonna 172 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: say I was gonna make a huge day and on it. 173 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 1: But to me, if you're getting seven and a half 174 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: seven on Detroit, it felt like kind of a no 175 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 1: brain or play. I think their view of it is, 176 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 1: do you really trust a Troit team that's still not 177 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 1: fully healthy yet they still might not have swift back, 178 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: they still might have how dj tark back again, that's 179 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: I guess a big deal to them, where I don't know. 180 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: I just thought it was a big deal Docks coming 181 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 1: back off a hand hand injury. Um, I feel like 182 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: you rushed back. I feel like we were getting good points. 183 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: So they I don't know if I'm gonna bet it, 184 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: but they might have scared me off and letting me in. 185 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: Jeff put the seven and a half in or seven 186 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: in with Detroit. But I just thought that was interesting. 187 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: Stand they think the Cowboys are really that good, Like 188 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: they put them in the top three, top four team 189 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: right now in the NFC, where they have a view 190 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: on Detroit's at bottom two team right now in the NFC. 191 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 1: So again, just difference of opinions. All right, Well, we're 192 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: gonna get to that. Because as I was preparing for 193 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: the show this morning, UM, I added one team to 194 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 1: the conversation that I wanted to very specific on and 195 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: it was Detroit. Well, I'm not to hear it out 196 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,080 Speaker 1: because I was with you, I was on Detroit. I 197 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,439 Speaker 1: just felt like, again, if I get enough calls about 198 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: one team, I tend to listen, Right. I just marked 199 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: it down as like, okay, five different groups I know 200 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 1: for sure taking position on the Cowboys. Only one other 201 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: pro I talked to took a position on Detroit. Well, 202 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: we're gonna get to that one. I'll put it at 203 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: the end. Um, we still owe people a big balls 204 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: better the week. Who knows, maybe it ends up being 205 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: the Lions. I think it's becoming an interesting game. Let's 206 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: start from the top of our list. Uh, Jags minus 207 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: three against the Giants. I still love this side. And 208 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 1: I was listening to Stucky and Chris Raban on the 209 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: Action Network NFL podcast this morning. Stucky was making the 210 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 1: case for the Jags their rush defense is third in 211 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 1: the league. I think for d v o a you know, 212 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: fancy way of saying advanced stats, they're really good at 213 00:10:55,160 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: defending the run. The Giants their best offensive weapon is 214 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 1: running the ball. But then he made something really a 215 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: really good point. The Giants keep winning games on luck 216 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. And we've talked about the luck 217 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: rankings on this show, right the rankings that we put 218 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: out that quantify how lucky teams have been this year. 219 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: No team has been luckier than the Giants, Cordin or Math, 220 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: no team. So I've got a team in the Jacks 221 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,439 Speaker 1: who had they kind of lost this past weekend that 222 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: literally almost never happens. No one had never had as 223 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: good a game as Trevor Lawrence had has and lost 224 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: the game, like statistically, he had the best game ever 225 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: for a losing quarterback. Um and the Giants keep winning 226 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 1: by luck. I know we've talked about the Jacks being 227 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 1: a team that we might be biased in favor of 228 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: and that could be clouding our judgment, but I don't 229 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 1: think it is here. Yeah, again, the tough thing argument 230 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 1: with the Giants is there are five and one on 231 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: one possession games. It's year like they were winning the 232 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: close games, and I'm with you, that's luck. Well I 233 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: just talked to it. A lot of that does go 234 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: into coaching and believe in. It's like, again, I don't 235 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 1: get what's happening, but yeah, to me, the Jaguar, as 236 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: soon as that number opened, it was a no brainer. 237 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: And then all the trends and number start pouring in 238 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 1: and makes you pause, But it doesn't change my position. 239 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: But yeah, like that, I think someone was saying it 240 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:26,319 Speaker 1: was what two and fourteen. The Jaguars are um playing 241 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: against NFC teams their last sixteen, So it's like, I 242 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,559 Speaker 1: think I put too much in a dug change in 243 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 1: the culture in one year where it looks like it's 244 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: gonna take a little while here, like a culture that 245 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: is just just loses. I mean, yeah, and that Blake 246 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: Bortles year, that was a special year. Don't we all 247 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: saw through that? Right? That was just a kind of 248 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: a flukey year or the Jaguars made it always this 249 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:53,239 Speaker 1: NFC Championship game. They've done nothing but go backwards since then. So, Um, 250 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 1: Jaguars team as a pro, ME and Chat are gonna 251 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 1: bet it. We end up talking about and putting in 252 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 1: the competition. But it's a bizarre line, like the books 253 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: are getting money on the Giants and they're keeping it 254 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: at three, and people are thinking they're getting a good, 255 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: good number on a five and one team against what 256 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 1: Jad just talked about, a bad team and the Jaguars. 257 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: But again, this is a spa where I have to 258 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: trust the numbers and take the Jaguars. But it's just 259 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: like man, me and Chat are not gonna be surprised 260 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 1: only lose, just because as much as you want to 261 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,680 Speaker 1: say how lucky the Giants are, the Jaguars are equally 262 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: unlucky this season. Just it's just two teams on the 263 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: opposite side. So yes, I'm with you, it should flip 264 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: more than do and the numbers back it up. But 265 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: I bet it too, and I just felt sick to 266 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: my stomach doing it. Um. Something pointed out to me 267 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: is again we can't do this for the contest, obviously, 268 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 1: but Jaguars first half, that's where the Giants have struggled. 269 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: They've not been well done well in the first half, 270 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: but the second half is when they keep it close. 271 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: And I've won these games. So unlike me and Chat, 272 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: we don't have that choice. You could just go Jaguars 273 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: first half and if you want to take a position 274 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 1: and iven take full game with the Jaguars, because again, 275 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,079 Speaker 1: they played really well these first half. He's got the 276 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 1: Jaguars team. But to me, if minus three Chat, if 277 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 1: it's in our contest at that or minus two and 278 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: a half, I would take it. But I feel like 279 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: you agree at minus three and a half, maybe we'll pause. Yeah, 280 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: I don't think three and a half. I want to 281 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: call you out on one thing that, Mitchell, I feel 282 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 1: like we need to get. We need to get like 283 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: a penalty, flag drop or something. I'm putting the Kai 284 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: bosh on bullshit. Small sample size, historical trends that mean nothing. 285 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: I don't think and I've heard this going around and 286 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: it's so stupid. I don't think the Jags being two 287 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: and fourteen against NFC teams the last whatever number of 288 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 1: years means anything. It's a small sample size, different teams, 289 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: different coaches. The Jags are historically bad against everybody, So 290 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: you can't take anything into account when it comes to 291 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: a sample size that involves the Jags or a trend 292 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: that is sixteen games over god knows how many years 293 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 1: we're dropping the flag. It's like those new commercials where 294 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: you throw the replay in there. That's when we're gonna 295 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: look at we'll regret saying that. Um, they are one 296 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: and three on the road this year, so again, it 297 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: is an old trend, but there's some there's some merit 298 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 1: to it with this team just hasn't won And like again, 299 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: I'm with you, chat, I'm waiting from the turn that corner, 300 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: but you are what your record says. You are right, 301 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: like they just they haven't won games to this point. Um, 302 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: I hope I'm wrong. I'm betting on the Jaguars, so 303 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: I hope that trend is bullshit. So the other game, 304 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: I want to get to. Uh, Washington plus five and 305 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: a half. We talked about this, this was your son 306 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: and says Uh when we recorded, I immediately bet it. 307 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: I went into the action app. I clicked on Washington 308 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 1: plus five and a half and then I used quick 309 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: Slip technolo aology. I clicked on fan duel from the 310 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: Action app. It immediately took me to a bet slip 311 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: in FanDuel. I didn't have to go to FanDuel app, 312 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: open it search for NFL games. Finding that I wanted 313 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: to make immediately took me there. I could put in 314 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: the amount of money I want to put in make 315 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: the bet. While you were talking about the Washington commanders. 316 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 1: I made that whole bet. It took me about fifteen seconds. 317 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: If you're in a legal state and you are not 318 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 1: using quick slip with Action Network and FanDuel, you are 319 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: in sane. It is the best way to bet. It 320 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: is so smooth, seamless technology, auto magical. Here's what I 321 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: will say, that was an unprompted shameless plug. By the way, 322 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: I feel like you've got in Washington and Green Bay 323 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 1: to mediocre to bad teams, to mediocre to bad defenses. 324 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: The one thing Washington does well as pressured the quarterback 325 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: without blitzing. That bothers Aaron Rodgers. He's significantly worse in 326 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: that situation on other side of the ball. No more. 327 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: Carson Wentz, Taylor Heineke uh similar QBR for his career, 328 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 1: similar yards per a tempt for his career, better completion percentage, 329 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: for his career and he's more mobile. So even at 330 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: four and a half, which this number has moved to, 331 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 1: we might get that in the contest. I'm still playing 332 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: in Washington. Yeah, and to me again, we're playing a 333 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 1: common numbers game here of how much better is Carson 334 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 1: really rated than Heineke. I feel like Chad is nail 335 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 1: on the head. It's like the books hung a high 336 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 1: number because they expected the public come in on green Bay. 337 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: The public did right, it would state at five and 338 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 1: a half, and all of sten, all that pro money 339 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: just poured in the last twenty four hours, and it's like, yeah, 340 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:44,639 Speaker 1: should be down to four and a half, should be 341 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 1: down to four, would not be shocked again as he 342 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: had down to three and a half by kickoff. It's 343 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 1: just I feel like in held it, it's two teams 344 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: that aren't that different. Um. The biggest difference is it's 345 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,560 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. It's like, if you're betting green Bay, you're 346 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 1: literally betting Aaron Rodgers to bounce back this position. But 347 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: it's like bounced back and do what like blowout this 348 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: Washington team. It's really hard to blow dominate teams. And 349 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: I look at a washingtoneam that they do really well 350 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 1: run the ball. Like again, Robinson looked really good to 351 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 1: me last week. Um, I have to take Washington like 352 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: it was just a no brainer as soon as you 353 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: saw the way the Jets beat Green Bay, right, they 354 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 1: didn't beat it with Zach Wilson. They beat it on 355 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 1: the ground. Heineken Zach Wilson again, not that different if 356 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: you grade them out like I look at my grades 357 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: are not that far off. Heineke's biggest weakness is the 358 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: stupid turnovers, if you can limit that. Chat, I love this. 359 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: I love this matchup so much. Again, people already probably 360 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 1: listened to last week new We're gonna have this to 361 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 1: my money line around Robin. Crazy to think they're gonna 362 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 1: have a three Gays, a three game slide and they're 363 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 1: gonna be losing to the Giants, the Jets and Washington. 364 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,360 Speaker 1: But that's how football goes, right, Chat Like it comes 365 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,919 Speaker 1: at you fast. These teams that were really good for 366 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: a couple of years, they fall off this. This just 367 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: looks like a down here for Green Bay. Again. I 368 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: can't believe they have treated for a while receiver. But 369 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 1: Brandad Cole might be out now. Who who is he 370 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 1: going to on third down with this team right now 371 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: in Green Bay. So to me, it's a bad spot 372 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: for Rodgers. I would bet it down to three and 373 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: a half. The fact you can still get four and 374 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: a half, I'd still grab it now. But yeah, Washington, 375 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: as soon as the game open, I knew we were 376 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: gonna be on it. Um. The fact that we got 377 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: the best of the number, that's always a good feeling. Yeah, No, 378 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 1: it's great, It's totally great. This is one of those 379 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: things where we talked about betting ugly all the time. Washington. 380 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 1: You're betting on a team whose ownership is in disarray. Yeah, 381 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: that hasn't performed. Well, that's starting a backup quarterback against 382 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: the two time defending NFL m v P and one 383 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 1: of the teams considered to be the favorites to win 384 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: the conference. And it's a no brainer, total, no brainer. 385 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 1: This is a great way to go to go against 386 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:02,120 Speaker 1: public perception. Um. All right, well, we know we're gonna 387 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: be on Washington and the contest the other game, Houston 388 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 1: plus seven. It's another one. We're like two teams similarly 389 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: ranked offensively and defensively. Uh, the Raiders are seven point 390 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 1: favorites at home. The tickets on the Raiders, the money 391 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: on the Texans just based on that you play the Texans. 392 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 1: But this number is so big. I cannot figure out 393 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: why this number is so big. Yeah, no, again, we 394 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: might be stepping. At some pointed out to me that I, 395 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: me and you were on all three of the dogs 396 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,239 Speaker 1: for the late games. Me and I don't even think 397 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 1: that way. Honestly, we're just picking games. I didn't even 398 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 1: realize that until yeah, I hear it, Like, yeah, I'm 399 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: sure specifically a favorite is gonna win. Me and I 400 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 1: don't bet that way, Like I'm not only gonna pick 401 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 1: a dog or just pick a favorite just to have 402 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 1: one in there. Um, I'm with you, Houston. That feels 403 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,199 Speaker 1: like a good number to me at seven scary a 404 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 1: little bit because exactly what you just it feels like 405 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: the Jets last week. I'm trying not to get scared 406 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: off the number and just trust that it's a good number. 407 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 1: Where it's like, in what world's in Green Bay? Have 408 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 1: may be catching seven and a half against the Jets. 409 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: Same thing here? And what world is Vegas seven points 410 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: better than Houston? Anyone? Yeah, I mean, they just haven't 411 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: shown it to this point, so Houston just plays games 412 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 1: close and they let teams back in it. I just again, 413 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 1: I'm with you, chat. I'm hoping this is seven and 414 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: a half in our contest because that would be a 415 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: great number for this But um, at seven, it's it's 416 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 1: still a good strong play for me. I don't think 417 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: we're getting seven and a half. I haven't seen it 418 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 1: go to seven and a half anywhere, so I think 419 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: we'd be pretty lucky if it got there was seven, 420 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 1: halving a bunch off shores, but that's fair. I haven't 421 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 1: seen a seven and a half in America in two days. 422 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 1: All right, Um, let's talk about the forty Niners and 423 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 1: the Chiefs a little bit more. Do we like it 424 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 1: enough if the contest line is two and a half 425 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 1: to still bid the forty Niners? Yeah, I feel like 426 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:00,920 Speaker 1: we kind of we kind of half because we're taking 427 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: such a strong position on it. Um again, it's gonna 428 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 1: end up being one of my biggest bets of the week. 429 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: And it's like, try not to put so much weight 430 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 1: into three because it's it's rare where games laying on 431 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: three like they used to. That used to be such 432 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 1: a key number. Now with the extra points, teams going 433 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 1: for two down fourteen everything like that. It just changes 434 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 1: the math and the rhythm to two and a half 435 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,640 Speaker 1: to three. So yeah, if you liked it, if you had, yeah, 436 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: me and Cha I would love to make us our 437 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: big balls, but we already made this our bet um 438 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 1: our foxhold bet. So to me, it's it's gonna be 439 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: the hardest bet you have to make. You kind of 440 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 1: have to trust me and chat and just the numbers. 441 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: This is a pro bet you make lifetime. You're gonna 442 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: win this bet. And again that's a big deal. So 443 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 1: not only do the numbers back it up where you 444 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 1: have a good run scheme for this UM four Niners 445 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 1: team against a Chiefs team that early on I thought 446 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 1: they might have fixed the running back woes. And then 447 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 1: what did we see. We saw them play against teams 448 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 1: that can move the ball and run the ball and 449 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: they absolutely dominated them. That's what the Forts love to do. 450 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: So I'm just going to trust that that's gonna be 451 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 1: a close, back and forth game and that again the 452 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,959 Speaker 1: forty Niners can pull this one out. Because as much 453 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 1: I'd love to tell you to take the Chiefs, the 454 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: numbers back it up. It's like this game is closer 455 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: to a pick than it should be at plus three. 456 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,360 Speaker 1: That what it was. So that's our reason. I knew 457 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: right away to give it out and that we were 458 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,679 Speaker 1: gonna be on it was. In fact, everyone's gonna bet it. 459 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 1: I texted Chat, I really didn't think it was going 460 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 1: up the plus three and a half and it just 461 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 1: went down. So again, that makes me feel good knowing 462 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: we're with the pros as well. Uh, those are the 463 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:36,880 Speaker 1: four games that we felt strongest about. Jags minus three, 464 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 1: Washington plus five and a half even at four and 465 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: a half, Houston plus seven plus three. Other games on 466 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 1: the list, one of them mentioned in sharp calls. UH 467 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: plus six in a Seattle plus six and a half 468 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 1: now down to five and a half. I'm not surprised 469 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: this this line has moved. Yeah, the Chargers roster, everyone 470 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,640 Speaker 1: loves it. Everyone thought they'd be a contender. Everyone thought 471 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 1: this was the year they could take over the a 472 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: f C West. Keenan Allen hasn't played since Week one. 473 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 1: We don't know what's going on with Bosa. I mean, 474 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 1: Boss is not gonna be playing, Rashawn Slater not gonna 475 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 1: be playing. I think they struggled mightily last week against 476 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: the Broncos. They probably should have lost that game. I 477 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:18,959 Speaker 1: think that's having a little bit to do with it. 478 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: Plus the fact that Gino Smith. Gino Smith looks so 479 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: good when he steps up in the pocket and throws 480 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 1: and throws deep and and throws over the coverage. And 481 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:33,439 Speaker 1: I'm a huge, huge Kenneth Walker fan, huge Kenneth Walker. 482 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 1: I don't know why, but last year ended up seeing 483 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: a lot of Michigan State football games. I loved this 484 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: guy at Michigan State. And he's been he's carrying people. 485 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 1: He either carrying people or people can't flat out tackle 486 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 1: him like he's just he's jitterbugging, you know. Amazing player. 487 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 1: Just a bazaar again in Seattle. Coming into the season, 488 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 1: I just thought they'd be trying to make a position 489 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 1: to get a top pick. Now they are going to 490 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 1: be in position I the top pick, but that pick 491 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 1: is gonna be the Broncost pick. So again, life comes 492 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 1: at you fast the NFL. Who knows it's gonna happen 493 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 1: right early one third way through the season. But the 494 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 1: Genos Smith stuff. It's nothing against Gina. I love the kid. 495 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 1: W boy, it was just every time he would get 496 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 1: these opportunities to play. He would literally light it up 497 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: and look great for a game or two, and then 498 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: he would just fall off a cliff and like a 499 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: team would get a read on the defense, we get 500 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 1: a read on them, and then he'd fall off again. 501 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 1: He didn't light the world on fire last week against 502 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 1: the Cardinals, but he kept his team in a position 503 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,879 Speaker 1: to win, and that's what you're looking for with these quarterbacks. 504 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: So if you can have those kind of games and 505 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 1: down games and they're rely on the defense to lead 506 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 1: him and just not turn the ball over, that's huge 507 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 1: for Gina. So in this matchup, loved it at six 508 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,359 Speaker 1: and a half because what we talked about last show, 509 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: it's like, again the Chargers, we know they have the talent, 510 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 1: we just don't think they have a coaching. They just 511 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 1: simply do not like the offensive scheme they're running, the 512 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,880 Speaker 1: position they're putting Herbert in the fact that he can't 513 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 1: really get protection at some points where it's like bizarre 514 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,160 Speaker 1: that and skiing that up either, it's like just keep 515 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 1: your running back instead of always running an eckler out. Um, 516 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 1: I don't know the guy love Seattle. It just sucks 517 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 1: down to five and a half, Like, yeah, I'll still 518 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 1: take that number. But we had such a nice number 519 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,399 Speaker 1: at six and a half. I am shocked, but again, 520 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: it makes me feel better knowing that the professionals have 521 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 1: coming so heavy on this number because that's a big, 522 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 1: key number, like moving through the six. That's a big deal. 523 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 1: Books don't want to do that either, because now you 524 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 1: talk about the time you just simply tease down the 525 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:29,920 Speaker 1: Chargers to win. They just need to win out right 526 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 1: for you. So interesting movement. If me and you to 527 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: have it at six and a half of our contest, 528 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 1: I just don't know how. I don't play it on 529 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,119 Speaker 1: Sunday like that's just such a good number. Much be 530 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,879 Speaker 1: back and forth? Yeah, what about the Falcons plus six? 531 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 1: I feel like this is this is the game that 532 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 1: is a line, a line of demarcation. We talked about value, 533 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: We talked about getting out of the peak, getting out 534 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 1: of the peak of the market. It feels too big 535 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,640 Speaker 1: for me to still be playing Cincinnati's a six point favorite. 536 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: But are we pressing our Okay, I think it takes bass. 537 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,159 Speaker 1: We've been a six and oh a team a t 538 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 1: s are you saying right now? The Atlanta Falcons are 539 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: big balls better the week big balls better the week 540 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 1: because I feel like they wants to do it. They're 541 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,080 Speaker 1: like you, They're just like are we are? We just 542 00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 1: walking right into it, Like this team, we should be 543 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 1: selling on them. I think they're still in the rat 544 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 1: in like they really are in this division. They're tied 545 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 1: for right now in their division. They're still plus seven 546 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 1: dred most books to win the NFC South. This line, 547 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 1: I get it. It was plus ten at one point. 548 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,439 Speaker 1: It brought it way down to plus seven, then they 549 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 1: brought it down a six and a half, and now 550 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 1: they're getting action on both sides. I think that's what 551 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: we're talking. People are just skeptical of this Atlanta team. 552 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the other side of Cincinnati. They've lost 553 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,400 Speaker 1: two of their big de tackles up front. That's gotta 554 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,120 Speaker 1: be a big deal to this team stopping the run. 555 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,160 Speaker 1: We saw that week the Saints were able to move 556 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 1: a ball against them without their top weapons. Atlanta is 557 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 1: healthy right now. Pitts is back one that's been playing 558 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,359 Speaker 1: for them, like Mariota's got no in again. I know 559 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 1: it was gonna hurt them that have no Cordel Patterson. 560 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 1: It looks like it doesn't matter. They've been averaging a 561 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,920 Speaker 1: hundred fifty yards per per game rushing since he's been out. 562 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,119 Speaker 1: So I'm with you, chat, We're gonna get caught eventually. 563 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 1: I just don't think it's this week again. You're playing 564 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:16,960 Speaker 1: the matchups to sixty team that just does not blow 565 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 1: teams out that play close. They have their own issues, right, 566 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 1: and keep talking about that Jamaar Chase. He was the 567 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 1: difference in that game last week. Guess what Atlanta has. 568 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 1: They have a shutdown corner that should be able to 569 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 1: take him away. So there's a bunch of different little 570 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,439 Speaker 1: matchups I like for Atlanta. But yeah, six and a 571 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 1: half and again another big dog that we liked this week. 572 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 1: I love it, I man, I mean, I feel like 573 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 1: I'm ready to Sometimes you get a feel on teams 574 00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 1: and how the market is responding, and I don't think 575 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 1: the value has been accurately portrayed in any of the 576 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:57,239 Speaker 1: Falcons lines yet. And it's mainly because Mary hasn't hurt us, 577 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 1: like if he catches us in this game, the appisode 578 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 1: lays a complete dump. Honestly, people, that does happen, Like 579 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 1: this guy isn't the top five quarterback of football, but 580 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 1: Arthur is really doing this offense where it's not predicated 581 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 1: on him. Like when they need to make these big 582 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 1: third down players, he does it, but they aren't asking 583 00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,720 Speaker 1: it that much because they can run the ball. There's 584 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,000 Speaker 1: so many third and short options. Again, it's just a 585 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 1: beautiful thing watching it go. A coach coming and scheming 586 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:23,479 Speaker 1: offense around the players and the team. He doesn't care 587 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 1: about his own scheme. He schemed around the offense on 588 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,320 Speaker 1: the team. That's what you're seeing in this Atlanta team. 589 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,760 Speaker 1: All right, Uh, I do want to talk about the Lions. Um, 590 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 1: there's two more games. I want to talk about. The 591 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 1: Bears went from plus eight two plus seven and a half. Um, 592 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 1: I can't believe. Let me just say this, we like 593 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 1: the Bears of plus eight. I don't think we're putting 594 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 1: the Bears of plus eight in our contest. The other day, 595 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 1: someone texted to me or you know, tag me on 596 00:29:55,680 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 1: Twitter and showed how Bill Belichick could basically gone on 597 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 1: for eight minutes about how good the Bears are. That's 598 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 1: like the Bears that's terrible. That just means it really 599 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 1: sees how bad they truly are, because he never does that. 600 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 1: Bill No. So, as a Bears fan, I know that 601 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 1: we're kind of funny, you know, but we're on the 602 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,239 Speaker 1: Bears plus eight. You might get lucky. Mac Jones might 603 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,400 Speaker 1: come back for you. Yeah, you know, it's all they 604 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,120 Speaker 1: cleared him. I don't. I don't know that would happen. 605 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 1: I feel like this is Baby's Appy's team until Baby's Appy, 606 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 1: you know, can't do it anymore. Bailey Zappy unctually has 607 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,960 Speaker 1: like an absolute meltdown of the game. You gotta gotta 608 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 1: le him keep playing exactly Lions plus seven. I guess 609 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 1: my feeling on this is the lines keep games close 610 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: if they're fully healthy, especially at mon Ross st. Brown, 611 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,520 Speaker 1: who I expect to be fully healthy in this game. 612 00:30:56,240 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 1: The Cowboys offensive line is dreadful. I don't know that 613 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 1: it's that much of an upgrade getting Dak Prescott back 614 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: right now. I'm not saying I think Cooper Rush should 615 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 1: be replacing Dak Prescott, but coming back after a long 616 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 1: laugh with the thumb injury and a bad offensive line, 617 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,320 Speaker 1: I just feel like this is a backdoor game. Yeah again, 618 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: I said we're gonna take it, just don't be surprised 619 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 1: when we're dead wrong where It's like, I get it, 620 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 1: these pros, they're not gonna get everything right. But it 621 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: was just interesting they're all taking that position where it 622 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 1: just made me rethink where it's like I looked at 623 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 1: this is another easy bet, like the same way I've 624 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 1: kind of felt the Landing where it's like you just 625 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,520 Speaker 1: have an inflated line based on public perception. Where again 626 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be I no surprise of cowboys. Somehow defense 627 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,200 Speaker 1: completely shuts down Detroit like the Patriots did and they 628 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 1: get no points. But if Swift does come back, I mean, 629 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,320 Speaker 1: we have a great number on a Detroit team that 630 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,200 Speaker 1: we'll be able to move the ball. Like again, that 631 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,720 Speaker 1: guy is such a difference maker. So um to me, 632 00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: I don't know if we're having the contest, but Swift 633 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 1: is back on Sunday and we're catching seven a half, 634 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,080 Speaker 1: we might end up switch it in because that's just 635 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 1: a good number on a team that, again their predicated 636 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 1: on their talented players around them. Um, we've seen golf 637 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 1: do well to Indoors, right, We've seen the difference this year. 638 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: Like him, Indoors, they're always in these games, especially at 639 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 1: this big of a number. They tend to hang in 640 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,720 Speaker 1: these games. I just the same thing I said to 641 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 1: the other pros. I talked to balls, the balls on 642 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: you to be bet and Deck coming off an injury, 643 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 1: a hand injury coming in and this is his first 644 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 1: game back. Um again feels like he's rushing back. He 645 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,240 Speaker 1: should just be should he should just waited till after 646 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 1: their bye week. But again he just he saw another 647 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,760 Speaker 1: man exceeding in his job. He just wanted it back. 648 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 1: So I'm with each I think we're getting a good number. 649 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 1: It's just it's just like last week. They're certain games. 650 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,600 Speaker 1: I got a pause on UM this week. The two 651 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: this this is one of the Another one is the 652 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 1: Tennessee Colts game. Um, I just knew a new Pros 653 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 1: are gonna be on Tennessee. But I knew real big 654 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: money was gonna come in the Colts. And what happened 655 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 1: this week? Big money came in the Colts. But it's 656 00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: been kind of split. Um. Another game that I don't 657 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 1: think we're end up having in the contest, but just 658 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,239 Speaker 1: a result I can't wait to see because it kind 659 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 1: of feels like that's the fight for the division right there. 660 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,440 Speaker 1: The cold Tennessee game. I don't know if you've had 661 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 1: opinion on that one, Chad, but I didn't really know 662 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: what to do with it on Tuesday, because at first glance, 663 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,479 Speaker 1: I was all in on Tennessee. Um, still kind of 664 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 1: lost in the weeds here on what to do with 665 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,560 Speaker 1: this game. Yeah, I mean, I think you played Tennessee 666 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:23,120 Speaker 1: because it's a divisional matchup and they're less than a 667 00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,800 Speaker 1: less than a field goal favorite at home. But I 668 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 1: got coming off and coming off of by yeah, I got. 669 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 1: I got no time for this game. I think Mike 670 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 1: Rabel is a better coach than Frank Raich. I don't 671 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 1: know what's happening with Jonathan Taylor. The Colts defense has 672 00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: been pretty good. Um, I don't even want this game 673 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:44,240 Speaker 1: to appear on red Zone. We gotta talk Jets. People 674 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 1: want to talk Jets Denver. When we talked to the 675 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 1: shows two and a half or maybe two, and now 676 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 1: I went down to a pick and it's back up 677 00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 1: the plus one Denver Broo. Yeah, so we liked the Jets. 678 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 1: As a reminder, we liked the Jet at plus two. 679 00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,280 Speaker 1: I think I probably still favored the Jets. You know, 680 00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:05,400 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson is claiming he has Wolverine blood, and that 681 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,080 Speaker 1: doesn't mean he's playing. It just means he has Wolverine Blood. 682 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 1: The Broncos are one of those teams where you talk 683 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,360 Speaker 1: about the Giants, right, Let's say the Giants they're getting lucky, 684 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,279 Speaker 1: and you can say they have good coaching and that 685 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 1: helps fuel and instill belief, and that helps fuel luck. 686 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,400 Speaker 1: I think the Broncos had bad coaching. I think that 687 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 1: if Russell Wilson does play, he doesn't quite know what 688 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 1: to do in that offense. Yet. Um, their defense is outstanding, 689 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,720 Speaker 1: and I think Zack Wilson is a terrible quarterback, truly terrible. 690 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 1: And this Jets team is also beating bad teams in 691 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,760 Speaker 1: dramatic ways. That is, you know, they beat the Packers, 692 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 1: they beat the Dolphins, although that game was too close. Um, 693 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 1: and they beat the Browns and Jacobe Brossett kind of 694 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:51,319 Speaker 1: blew up and turned back into a pumpy. So I 695 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,880 Speaker 1: have qualifiers and liking the Jets, but I think I 696 00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:55,600 Speaker 1: still like the Jets here because I think the Broncos 697 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,879 Speaker 1: are just so bad. Yeah, and again, the Zack wasn't thing. 698 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,400 Speaker 1: I have to wait still, like I always give, I 699 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 1: give guys the benefit of data, give him a couple 700 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:07,200 Speaker 1: of years. Again, rarely doesn't flip, but a few times 701 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,000 Speaker 1: it does can be insane. Like Josh Allen, if you 702 00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:11,840 Speaker 1: go back and look at his stats through two years, 703 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 1: you you probably would have cut him from your team. 704 00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: You just look absolutely lost. We've seen how that panned down, 705 00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:20,319 Speaker 1: so Zach Wilson, Yeah, it's it's not good right now. 706 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,560 Speaker 1: But the beat mean Chad talked about making here was 707 00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 1: simply because the Jets defense, this is a good matchup. 708 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:27,960 Speaker 1: We talked about the under as well. It's one of 709 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,759 Speaker 1: my favorite under bets. I bet early in the week. 710 00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,279 Speaker 1: It's down in most books. The thirty eight now down 711 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,319 Speaker 1: from thirty and a half, down the thirty nine, thirty 712 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 1: eight and a half now down to thirty eight. I 713 00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,520 Speaker 1: still think he's gonna play like what you just talked about. 714 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:43,080 Speaker 1: He's a psycho saying he's got wolverine blood, But I 715 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:47,759 Speaker 1: mean he's a competitor, like I thought he should arrest it. 716 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,520 Speaker 1: Last week, after he'd gotten surgery on his shoulder, he 717 00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:52,600 Speaker 1: went out there and played. He threw thirteen yards in 718 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 1: the second half. I know they're blaming his handstring on 719 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,399 Speaker 1: part of that. It feels all mental like it feels 720 00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,400 Speaker 1: like the guy he's missing. It's there's nothing new with 721 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,080 Speaker 1: his body. There wide open in front of him. He's 722 00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 1: just not seeing him. Whatever it is. He's just locking 723 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,879 Speaker 1: in on people. So it's the public dog of the week. 724 00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,479 Speaker 1: Like everyone in their grandmas will be bet in the Jets. 725 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,000 Speaker 1: The Jets are the hottest team. I mean the Northeast here. 726 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,400 Speaker 1: All the New York books, all the Jersey books, all 727 00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,160 Speaker 1: the PA books as well, they're just gonna be taking 728 00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 1: tons and tons of Jets funny, So I know I'm 729 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 1: on the public side here. Maybe I'll just tease them. Now, 730 00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,400 Speaker 1: you can tease them up to seven. Um, that's a 731 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 1: pretty great number to have against the Broncos. Teams that 732 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,360 Speaker 1: kick can't blow teams out, especially a good defense like 733 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,399 Speaker 1: the Jets. But we could be stepping in a chab. 734 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 1: I just again, think it comes to Sunday. We're getting 735 00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,919 Speaker 1: a plus one and a half, plus two and a half, 736 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,120 Speaker 1: and we know it's Russ gonna play through an injury. 737 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:41,719 Speaker 1: I feel like we're probably end up having the Jets. 738 00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:42,920 Speaker 1: And that's just why I want to bring that game 739 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,040 Speaker 1: up before he moved on. Totally got it. By the way, 740 00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,440 Speaker 1: he didn't have surgery on his shoulder. 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In New York, Tennessee. 775 00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:05,320 Speaker 1: Redline is one hundred eight eight nine fundred in Wyoming, 776 00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,640 Speaker 1: or visit www one eight hundred gambler dot net. In 777 00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:13,480 Speaker 1: West Virginia. We are going. I know there's people listening 778 00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:17,000 Speaker 1: live on AMP. They are asking about uh Thursday night 779 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,320 Speaker 1: football picks. We will get to that. Give us a 780 00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:23,279 Speaker 1: minute first, Simon, you're a head and Scooch Roulette our 781 00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:27,279 Speaker 1: head to head battle. You get to go first. When 782 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:32,200 Speaker 1: all hope is lost, all this left is relief. Let's 783 00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:39,399 Speaker 1: play Scots Rolette. Oh God, trying not to double dip. 784 00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 1: I'm I might have to you this week. You want 785 00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:45,640 Speaker 1: Washington so badly, I know you do do. It's just 786 00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,680 Speaker 1: a really good number. But I'm trying to be good 787 00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 1: and not double dip because it stirved me well these 788 00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:54,359 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. Give me Seattle. Oh you that's 789 00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:58,400 Speaker 1: your eye. That's what I wanted, all right, Seattle. Damn it? 790 00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:00,399 Speaker 1: What is it? Is it a five and half? You're 791 00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:06,000 Speaker 1: taking it and half? Gosh, darn darn all right. Uh, well, 792 00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,120 Speaker 1: I don't want to double dipper on Houston and Atlanta. 793 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:11,719 Speaker 1: We've been double dipping, yeah, but I don't want to. 794 00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:15,440 Speaker 1: I wanna be you know, Atlanta's out, Washington's out forts 795 00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,600 Speaker 1: are out. All right, you know what, Here we go, 796 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,759 Speaker 1: you know what, I know, We're not going to do 797 00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:25,960 Speaker 1: it in the contest. Give me the goddamn lines. Wow, 798 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:32,160 Speaker 1: I'm biting thee Caps survivor. I think it's still Patriots 799 00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,839 Speaker 1: or Bucks. Yeah, no, an other choices and the fact 800 00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:39,760 Speaker 1: that it now it's definitely PJ being the quarterback for Carolina. Again, 801 00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 1: look at the Buck schedule. Do the same thing to 802 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,080 Speaker 1: the Patriots and ask yourself when you're gonna take them again. 803 00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:47,319 Speaker 1: So that's how me, Chad, we've gotten lucky, but a 804 00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,520 Speaker 1: couple of our pictures, yere, I've done it that way. Um. 805 00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,319 Speaker 1: Here we are on week seven, still somehow alive. It 806 00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,120 Speaker 1: feels like an easy week. Those are usually the dangerous ones. 807 00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:59,000 Speaker 1: But I can't see Patriots losing at home to this 808 00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:01,600 Speaker 1: Bears team, and I just can't see the Bucks dropping 809 00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:04,279 Speaker 1: another game like this week has to be hell for 810 00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,239 Speaker 1: that page that Buccaneers team with Tom Breen at the Holme. 811 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,719 Speaker 1: So yeah, like both um up to the fans of 812 00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:14,520 Speaker 1: picking shoes, I would say which way I'm leaning the 813 00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:16,560 Speaker 1: highest right now would be the Patriots just because their 814 00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,359 Speaker 1: division so hard. I just don't see us taking them 815 00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,640 Speaker 1: against the Jets Miami. I've seen that the Bills where 816 00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,120 Speaker 1: there's other opportunities to take this Bucks team down the road, 817 00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,040 Speaker 1: So I would say it's more likely we take the 818 00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:30,759 Speaker 1: Patriots alright, money line round Robin, I'm gonna say the 819 00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:32,840 Speaker 1: teams I think that we're gonna put in it ready, 820 00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:36,279 Speaker 1: we're gonna put in realized. People said, we went three 821 00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,839 Speaker 1: and two lest week, Let's go Falcons. We're gonna put 822 00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:48,680 Speaker 1: in there. Seattle Ye, Niners yeah, um, Washington yeah uh? 823 00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,400 Speaker 1: And then who else? No, there's a bunch of different 824 00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:56,759 Speaker 1: avenues we could go here, um like every orifice and 825 00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:00,560 Speaker 1: my body. We already said Houston right in, say Houston, 826 00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,840 Speaker 1: I said, Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington. Houston jumps out just 827 00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,320 Speaker 1: because again, who's the Vegas to be catching that many points? 828 00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:07,839 Speaker 1: Like we have to take the value on that one. 829 00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,600 Speaker 1: And then just because of injury report and no one 830 00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:12,239 Speaker 1: else had doing it, Like I know, no one else 831 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,840 Speaker 1: is doing this. Cleveland's money line against a team in 832 00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:18,840 Speaker 1: Baltimore that has just melted against so many teams in 833 00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:22,120 Speaker 1: this fourth quarter, like it just jumped out. So that's terrible. 834 00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:27,000 Speaker 1: Let's put Houston in, all right, he'st Houston over the Browns. 835 00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:33,920 Speaker 1: That's fair, right, money line, Ron Robin Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington, Houston. Uh. 836 00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,640 Speaker 1: Let's give people who are listening live, um a a 837 00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:43,760 Speaker 1: last minute Thursday night football pick. I know what you think, 838 00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,279 Speaker 1: and I gotta tell you it's different than what I 839 00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:50,160 Speaker 1: think you like Cardinals tonight. I think I like the Cardinals. 840 00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,560 Speaker 1: I mean, it can't fault you for it. Um. I 841 00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:55,839 Speaker 1: think DeAndre Hopkins is a big deal. I think him 842 00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:59,239 Speaker 1: coming back is a really big deal. It changes it 843 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,640 Speaker 1: literally else the field. Not literally that was stupid, but 844 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,400 Speaker 1: it tilts the field the Cardinals in a way that 845 00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,480 Speaker 1: just changes the game plan. I like the Cardinals. Short 846 00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:13,480 Speaker 1: home dog, I mean short home favorite Thursday night. Uh, 847 00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,759 Speaker 1: that tends to be to play anyways, It's gonna be 848 00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,560 Speaker 1: an ugly game. So give me the Cardinals and I'll 849 00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:21,680 Speaker 1: just take the better team. List Saints are the better team. 850 00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,640 Speaker 1: I'll just take them blindly here, and I'm happy to 851 00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,080 Speaker 1: lose money on it. All the numbers backup Chad. Betting 852 00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:29,440 Speaker 1: the favorites, especially short home favorites, has been very profitable 853 00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,239 Speaker 1: on Thursday nights. Again, just a blindly beat thing. If 854 00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,680 Speaker 1: you just want to just battle the trends, I think 855 00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:36,239 Speaker 1: you're right with Chad here. If you just want to 856 00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:39,080 Speaker 1: go based off the numbers, I think the best play 857 00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:40,920 Speaker 1: for me will be the first half. I'll just take 858 00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,720 Speaker 1: the Saints team that should be more compaired. The obviously 859 00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,040 Speaker 1: have been better than the Cardinals in the first half 860 00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:49,080 Speaker 1: and earlier this season. Another sneaky play I like, just 861 00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,359 Speaker 1: a long shot play Taysom Hill. Um, he might get 862 00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,799 Speaker 1: a lot of touches at quarterback this week. Just got 863 00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,400 Speaker 1: done has a back issue, so I see them subbing now. 864 00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:58,960 Speaker 1: I read a couple of beat writers talking about him 865 00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:02,680 Speaker 1: getting way more touches week. Um, Taysom Hill. Cardinal's run 866 00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,640 Speaker 1: defense is bad. So at plus one ninety anytime touchdown 867 00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:07,839 Speaker 1: Taysom Hill, That to me has value on a guy 868 00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,239 Speaker 1: that could be the number one QB midway through the 869 00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,640 Speaker 1: second quarter and Andy don't takes one bad hit, they're 870 00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:14,640 Speaker 1: gonna yank them. They said they're not gonna mess around it. 871 00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:16,879 Speaker 1: He wants to play, They're gonna let him play. They're 872 00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:18,960 Speaker 1: not gonna riscue him injuring himself for the whole season. 873 00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:22,439 Speaker 1: So sneaky played for me, be Taysom Hill anytime touchdown. Yeah, 874 00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:24,319 Speaker 1: because you can totally predict when a guy is going 875 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:25,880 Speaker 1: to get a bad hit and whether or not it's 876 00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:29,239 Speaker 1: gonna be season ending in the game of football. Um, 877 00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:33,440 Speaker 1: it's a really good planning there. All right, we've done 878 00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:37,080 Speaker 1: it all Simon, We've narrowed down our five. Right now, 879 00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:41,880 Speaker 1: if we had to do it today, it would be Jags, Washington, 880 00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:47,200 Speaker 1: Houston Niners, and then we'd probably debate Seattle and Atlanta. 881 00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:52,560 Speaker 1: Uh the money line around Robin Reminder Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, 882 00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:57,480 Speaker 1: Washington Houston, Scoot Roulette. You're on Seattle, I'm on the Lions. 883 00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:00,920 Speaker 1: Are big balls better the week get and a plus six. 884 00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,319 Speaker 1: I gotta remind people listen to Buckets the podcast. Our 885 00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:08,480 Speaker 1: NBA podcast launched daily this week with Matt Moore and 886 00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:12,799 Speaker 1: a rotating all star cast of betting analysts. You want 887 00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:14,399 Speaker 1: to bet the NBA, you gotta do it every day. 888 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:19,040 Speaker 1: You gotta listen to Buckets every single day. Don't forget. 889 00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:21,800 Speaker 1: Use quick Flip with the Action Network, capp and FanDuel. 890 00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:25,719 Speaker 1: It is genius technology, auto magical, so much easier than 891 00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:27,880 Speaker 1: having to search around a sports betting app for the 892 00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,920 Speaker 1: game that you want. We'll take you right there, my friends, 893 00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:33,560 Speaker 1: right there from the Action Network app. Use quick Flip 894 00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:37,080 Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman. 895 00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,640 Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume and 896 00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:43,720 Speaker 1: Podcast Network. Download us on Apple, Podcasts, on Spotify, wherever 897 00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,480 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, Rate review, Subscribe new Us five stars, 898 00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,879 Speaker 1: say whatever you want, feedback as a gift until next time, 899 00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:51,040 Speaker 1: Love you,