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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: We're throwing in job.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it's a cash tout.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 2: You want to pull, and we are underway. Hello, everyone,

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to another NFL episode of the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 2: Joining me Sewan Corner and Chris Rayvon. Shawn is the

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Speaker 2: Action Network director of Predictive Analytics, and Chris is a

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Speaker 2: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network. And they

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Speaker 2: are two of the best fantasy football rankers in the business.

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Speaker 2: In fact, it was just recently announced Sean that last year,

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Speaker 2: for the twenty nineteen season, you had the most accurate

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Speaker 2: season long NFL projection. So the player projections that you

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Speaker 2: made before the season for how a whole entire year

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Speaker 2: would unfold, those projections that were in last year's Fantasy

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Speaker 2: Football cheat sheet. Those were the most accurate season long

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Speaker 2: projections in the industry, and of course Chris and I

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Speaker 2: had a big hand in helping you sharpen those projections.

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Speaker 2: So Chris, congratulations to us.

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Speaker 3: Celebrate, Celebrate Don s the music, slid, Celebrate.

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Speaker 1: Don the Music.

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Speaker 2: Am I right? What do you think about the great

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Speaker 2: work that we collectively did last year?

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Speaker 4: Oh? Man?

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Speaker 3: So it's always great to just piggyback off of Sean

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Speaker 3: and get the credits. So yeah, I'll take yeah.

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Speaker 2: Sean. In all seriousness, congratulations on crushing last year with

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Speaker 2: your projections a massive accomplishment. We've completed our first full

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Speaker 2: round of projections for twenty twenty and we're going to

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Speaker 2: update those continually. Once again, our projections will power the

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Speaker 2: customizable Fantasy Football cheat sheet, which will be available soon

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Speaker 2: on the Action Network. Last episode, we previewed our player

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Speaker 2: projections for the AFC and Sean set's home player props

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Speaker 2: for us. We're going to do the same this episode

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Speaker 2: for the NFC. Sean from last year to this year,

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Speaker 2: have you made any tweaks in your player projection process?

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Speaker 4: It's interesting because I didn't. I had no idea that

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Speaker 4: I won this contest, and you know, a lot of

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Speaker 4: people were asking me, since I didn't finish in the

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Speaker 4: top ten the past couple of seasons of the Weekly,

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Speaker 4: if I was going to change my process, and I

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Speaker 4: said no. Even when I won the following year, I

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Speaker 4: would find things that were wrong and tweak a few things.

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Speaker 4: I like where my process is at. So I mean,

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Speaker 4: I'm sticking with it, but it's always evolving. I'm always

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Speaker 4: trying to improve. You know, you might have been joking

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Speaker 4: a little bit, but it does help, you know, working

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Speaker 4: with people like you that are sharp, and I think

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Speaker 4: everybody at Action Network we make each other better. So,

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Speaker 4: I mean, even last uff isso I would be projecting

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Speaker 4: to for like twelve games started, so you guys kind

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Speaker 4: of helped me lower that to a more reasonable number

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Speaker 4: of you know, eight or nine. So you know, I

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Speaker 4: do appreciate these episodes, especially where we can kind of

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Speaker 4: fine tune all of our projections.

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Speaker 2: Uh yeah, And of course I wasn't joking, really, Chris

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Speaker 2: and I deserve massive credit. Absolutely your your way, all right,

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Speaker 2: I'm excited to get into our NFC player projections. A

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Speaker 2: quick reminder that we will soon have two Fantasy Football

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Speaker 2: episodes per week most weeks, plus Jason Sobol and Peter

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Speaker 2: Jennings have their PJ Tour betting show every Tuesday. Stuck

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Speaker 2: in Colin will have their college football conference previews coming

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Speaker 2: out soon. We will have episodes on NFL Futures and

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Speaker 2: NBA Betting, so be sure to keep it locked on

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Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast for the next few months for

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Speaker 2: all of these fantastic episodes. And if you like what

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Speaker 2: you hear, give us that five star rating, leave us

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Speaker 2: a review. We'd appreciate it. And by the way, if

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Speaker 2: you don't know how to leave a review, here's how.

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Speaker 2: way down the episode's list. At the bottom you will

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Speaker 2: see ratings and reviews. Also, if anything I just said

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Speaker 2: is incorrect, don't blame me, don't come at me on Twitter,

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Speaker 2: blame the producer of this award winning podcast, Matt Mitchell.

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Speaker 2: In fact, if anything we say in this episode is wrong,

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Speaker 2: it's not on us, it's on Uncle Mitch. Okay, gentlemen,

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Speaker 2: let's get into it, and let's start with the NFC

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Speaker 2: East in my Dallas Cowboys, the team destined to win

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl this year, for the first time since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and seven. Former offensive coordinator then head coach

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Speaker 2: Jason Garrett will have nothing to do whatsoever with the

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Speaker 2: Cowboys offense. Mike McCarthy is now the new head coach

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Speaker 2: for the Cowboys, Kellen Moore is still the offensive coordinator,

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Speaker 2: and the team selected Ceedee Lamb number seventeen overall in

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty draft. Sean, how do you see things

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Speaker 2: playing out for the Cowboys?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so the player prop that I picked that I

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Speaker 4: want you guys to help me sharpen is Cee Lambs

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Speaker 4: or seeding yards per game, And you know, I think

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Speaker 4: he's going to fill in the Randal Kabrol right away.

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Speaker 4: With rum to grow, he should be expected to run,

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Speaker 4: you know, at least eighty percent of routes per pass attempt,

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Speaker 4: So I think he'll have a pretty big roll out

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Speaker 4: of the gate. The question is, you know, how much

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Speaker 4: of the target show will he get as a rookie,

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Speaker 4: especially an offseason like this where he won't have much

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Speaker 4: time to really learn the offense or even you know,

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Speaker 4: the pace of the NFL. So right now I have

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Speaker 4: his receiving yards per game line set at fifty seven

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Speaker 4: and a half yards. So are you guys above or below.

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Speaker 3: That I am under, I'm at forty. I'm at forty

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Speaker 3: seven to five, So I have him for about a

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Speaker 3: sixteen seventeen percent targets here, but at that route number

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Speaker 3: is exactly what I have eighty percent of have him

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Speaker 3: running eighty percent of the route.

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Speaker 4: Nice.

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Speaker 2: I am also on the under, but I'm pretty close.

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Speaker 2: I have it at fifty four point five. And I

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Speaker 2: do believe that he's going to be that locked in

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Speaker 2: third receiver. I actually think he's going to be playing

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Speaker 2: a little more on the outside. Whereas Reynal Cobb played

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Speaker 2: in the slot. I think Amari Cooper actually might play

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Speaker 2: a little more in the slot, and we see Ceedee

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Speaker 2: Lamb and Michael Gallup on the outside. But you know,

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Speaker 2: either way, I think he's going to be locked in

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Speaker 2: as that number three receiver, and I'm expecting this offense

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Speaker 2: to be pretty prolific, just as it was last year.

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Speaker 2: So I think he's going to be pretty close to

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Speaker 2: that number you set, but just a little bit underneath it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's worth pointing out random Cobb he averaged fifty

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Speaker 4: five point two yards per game last year, So I mean,

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Speaker 4: if you could just kind of replace that that's already

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Speaker 4: pretty good, and I think they will run more eleven

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Speaker 4: personnel they ran out of town last year, but probably

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Speaker 4: less two tight end sets that you know, Jason Wenton's gone.

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Speaker 4: Their tight end depth chart isn't great at all, So

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Speaker 4: I mean he could Ray Bonnet and I are pretty

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Speaker 4: much in a line with about eighty percent of the

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Speaker 4: routes run. But I mean he has potential to be

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Speaker 4: on the field over ninety percent of the time, So

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Speaker 4: I think that's where his upside lies. And again, if

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Speaker 4: Amari Cooper or Michael Galut go down, he could be

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Speaker 4: you know, a wide receiver too during those games. So

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Speaker 4: he has upside based on you know, just either one

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Speaker 4: of those receivers going down.

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Speaker 3: And Dak Prescott, you know, gives really gives all these

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Speaker 3: receivers a lot of upside because you look at Random Cobb,

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Speaker 3: he posted a career high fifteen point one yards per

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Speaker 3: catch first year with Dak Prescott, and so our projections

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Speaker 3: are probably the kind of near the median. But if

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Speaker 3: Dak Prescott is just hitting crazy passes down the field

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Speaker 3: and threaten the needle, that's how Lamb probably goes over

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Speaker 3: just with big plays.

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Speaker 2: Let's get to Philadelphia and talk about the Eagles. They

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Speaker 2: have maybe the best tight end unit in the league.

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Speaker 2: In fact, I'll say not maybe they have the best

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Speaker 2: tight end unit in the league. But their top wide

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Speaker 2: receivers are the oft injured Alshon Jeffery and DeShawn Jackson,

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Speaker 2: and then the rookie Jalen Rager. And of course we

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Speaker 2: also might see a big step forward from their second

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Speaker 2: year running back Miles Sanders. Sean, what are you giving

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Speaker 2: us for the player? Prop?

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Speaker 4: YEP, so it's gonna be Miles Sanders prop. I think

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Speaker 4: he's a huge question mark going in there, not because

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Speaker 4: of his talent, just because of you know, we can't

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Speaker 4: really trust Doug Pearson ever when it comes running backs.

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Speaker 4: I actually, during the season, I'm like the Memento guy,

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Speaker 4: write notes to myself on my arm and one of

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Speaker 4: the things I always write down is don't trust Eagles

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Speaker 4: running backs ever. Period. But that might that might change

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Speaker 4: because we should trust Miles Sanders. It's just what are

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Speaker 4: they intending to do leading up to the season right now?

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Speaker 4: If the depth chart holds, I think it's good, but

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Speaker 4: I'm just worried they're going to bring in a guy

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Speaker 4: like Devonte Freeman just to make things messy for us.

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Speaker 4: So right now I have Miles Sanders total yards per game,

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Speaker 4: so rushing and receiving yards. I have the lines set

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Speaker 4: at ninety six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'll take the under here pretty significantly. But I should

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Speaker 2: say in my projections, I believe I'm probably unreasonably low

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Speaker 2: on Miles Sanders, and part of that is because I'm

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Speaker 2: projecting a decent share of workload for Boston Scott and

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Speaker 2: even for Corey Clement, who when he's been in there,

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Speaker 2: has actually had more of a workload than I think

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Speaker 2: people probably remember. And as you say, we've just always

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Speaker 2: seen the situation with Doug Peterson's backfield where even if

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Speaker 2: there's been a runner who maybe should have been the

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Speaker 2: clear lead back, it just hasn't worked out that way.

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Speaker 2: So even though there was significant draft capital investment in

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Speaker 2: Miles Sanders last year, and even though especially in the

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Speaker 2: second half of the season he just looked like a dynamo,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if he's going to have the chance

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Speaker 2: to be fully unleashed on that backfield. So I'll take

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Speaker 2: the under here.

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Speaker 3: You love you some some third string running backs that

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Speaker 3: aren't even going to make the team that Why is

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Speaker 3: Corey Clement factoring into your I don't think Corey Klement is.

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Speaker 4: Do you think that's Elijah Holyfield.

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a lot of Scott

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Speaker 3: in Sanders. I think that the third running back. I

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Speaker 3: agree with you, he might not even be on the

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Speaker 3: team right now. But as far as the over under,

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Speaker 3: I have it lower as well. I'm going to go under.

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Speaker 3: I have it at eighty seven and a half, so

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Speaker 3: I have, you know, Sanders still being that lead back.

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Speaker 3: I do think Boston Scott is going to be involved.

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Speaker 3: I don't think like a third back will get too

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Speaker 3: much work because if you remember when was it Jordan

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Speaker 3: Howard I think came back near the end of last season,

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Speaker 3: they still went with Sanders and Scott. I think they

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Speaker 3: want that receiving upside at the running back position to

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Speaker 3: give them to kind of maximize the offense.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't feel comfortable having that over on him.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, it's it's really hard to trust them.

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Speaker 4: But if it's just Miles Sanders and Boston Scott and

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Speaker 4: you know, running back by committee, I think he'll go

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Speaker 4: over this. I don't think Boston Scott can really handle

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Speaker 4: that many touches. So I think Miles Sanders hopefully will

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Speaker 4: be more of a workhorse back than I think we're

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Speaker 4: even thinking right now.

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Speaker 2: I would love to keep on talking about Corey Clement

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Speaker 2: and make a strong case for him, but we will

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Speaker 2: move along to New York, where the Giants are going

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Speaker 2: to have quarterback Daniel Jones entering his second season. He

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Speaker 2: flashed a little bit as a rookie, and of course

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Speaker 2: offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is joining the team as the

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Speaker 2: play caller. Raybond have fun with that with your New

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Speaker 2: York Giants, Sean, give us a player prop.

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Speaker 4: So we're going with Saquon Barkley rushing touchdowns this year.

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Speaker 4: He had a bit of a down your last year.

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Speaker 4: Of course, he was hurt, missed a couple of games.

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Speaker 4: He had six touchdowns last year on the ground. One

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Speaker 4: of the big questions with him is his rushing TIMPs

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Speaker 4: inside the five. He's been way below average, only score

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Speaker 4: around seven of twenty nine rush attempts, so that's you know,

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Speaker 4: twenty seven percent. Lee average is around forty For those

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Speaker 4: we could just say he's a bad goal line back

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Speaker 4: or that he's going to regress closer with the league average,

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Speaker 4: which you would think, you know, running back like him,

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Speaker 4: he would at least be league gaverage in a stat

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Speaker 4: like that. So his rushing touchdown projection for me is

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Speaker 4: a bit tricky right now. I have it at nine

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Speaker 4: and a half. Are you guys going with the over? Under? There?

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Speaker 2: Over? Oh?

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Speaker 3: I got under?

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Speaker 4: Oh No, I split the action very quickly too.

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Speaker 3: You guys might have Barkley projected for more total touchdowns

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Speaker 3: than me then, because I haven't projected for about round

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Speaker 3: eight total touchdowns and so about five ish rushing and

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Speaker 3: three receiving. I'm guessing Friedman and you probably too are

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Speaker 3: over that.

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Speaker 4: Let's see. So I have nine and a half rushing

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Speaker 4: and I think like probably two receiving, So yeah, probably

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Speaker 4: eleven and a half total touchdowns for me.

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Speaker 3: So you think that you think the Giants are going

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Speaker 3: to be pretty good on offense, I wouldn't.

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Speaker 4: Say I say that, yeah, Barkley is the offense I

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Speaker 4: would I would put it that way.

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Speaker 2: I'm not projecting them to be all that prolific, especially

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Speaker 2: in the passing game. I think they're going to play

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Speaker 2: pretty slow, as Jason Garrett's offenses have in the past,

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Speaker 2: and I think they're going to rely on the run

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Speaker 2: and funnel a lot through Saquon Barkley. So I think

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Speaker 2: whatever you thought of Ezekiel Elliott for the last four

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Speaker 2: or five years, that's kind of what you're thinking of

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Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley. So yeah, I'm taking over on the touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: I have it, you know, closer to ten ten and

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Speaker 2: a half, and Sean, I'm with you there on a

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Speaker 2: round to receiving touchdowns. So I do like the over there,

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Speaker 2: and I think Saquon Barkley smashes this year. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's go to Washington where we have Ron Rivera, he's

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Speaker 2: taken over as the head coach, and quarterback Dwayne Haskins

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Speaker 2: is entering his second season and presumably will be locked

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Speaker 2: in as the starter. But as Raymond and I have

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Speaker 2: debated on The Serious XM Show, you know, maybe Haskins

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Speaker 2: actually doesn't make it the whole season as the starter.

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Speaker 4: So give him to week five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean a lot of unknowns there in Washington, Sean,

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Speaker 2: where are you? And give us the player prop here?

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Speaker 4: So you guys might be a little disappointed. But this

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Speaker 4: doesn't involve the running backs for the Redskins. This involves

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Speaker 4: Terry McLaurin. So his receiving yards per game. I think

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Speaker 4: this one's tricky because I mean, did we see his

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Speaker 4: ceiling last year or does he have room to grow?

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Speaker 4: How much will Haskins hold him back? Because I mean

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Speaker 4: he'd probably be a wide receiver, you know, fringe wide

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Speaker 4: receiver one on any other offense. It's just unfortunate he's

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Speaker 4: on this team. But right now I have his over

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Speaker 4: runner for receiving yards per game at sixty five and

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Speaker 4: a half.

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Speaker 3: We'll under I have it at about sixty so same

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Speaker 3: general area. But yeah, it's hard to it's hard to

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Speaker 3: really project the Redskins like aggressively just because we when

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Speaker 3: you have a bad quarterback situation, I think it makes

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Speaker 3: it more likely that you are a little more conservative.

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Speaker 3: Ron Rivera coming over from Carolina, you know, we remember,

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Speaker 3: you know, in Carolina most of those years they were

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Speaker 3: not a high volume pass team. They kind of got

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Speaker 3: their offense, and some of that was due to Cam Newton,

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Speaker 3: I think, but they were never really just kind of

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Speaker 3: a throw at around the yard type of team. So

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Speaker 3: that I'm gonna go a little bit conservatively here, But

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Speaker 3: I think the talent is outstanding, and yeah, he's one

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Speaker 3: of the best, better, more talented route runners in the league.

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Speaker 2: Probably not a big surprise. I will take the over.

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Speaker 2: I think McLaurin will smash and a lot of that

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Speaker 2: just has to do with the volume I expect him

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Speaker 2: to have. There's no one else in Washington who is

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Speaker 2: really an established receiver, whether you're looking in the backfield,

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Speaker 2: like Chris Thompson is gone. I mean Steven Simms, are

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Speaker 2: we really going to project him to be the locked

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Speaker 2: in number two wide receiver there? And tight end, I

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Speaker 2: mean we logan Thomas really like, we have no idea

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Speaker 2: who else is going to be on the field except

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Speaker 2: for Terry McLaurin. And he was so dominant as a rookie,

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Speaker 2: and he does have that Ohio State Shower narrative connection

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Speaker 2: going on Wi Dwayne Haskins. But I mean, even regardless

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Speaker 2: of that narrative street it doesn't even matter. I mean

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Speaker 2: mccorn was just so good as a rookie last year

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Speaker 2: and I think he's locked in for a ton of

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Speaker 2: volume that I'm willing to take the over.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you mentioned the even the tight end

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Speaker 4: that chart, it's really ugly. It works me that defense

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Speaker 4: is it's gonna be very easy for them to stop

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Speaker 4: the Redskins. Just stop Terry McLaurin, because no one else

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Speaker 4: can kill you. It's a bit concerning raybon if you're

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Speaker 4: that far under his receiving yards. He had sixty five

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Speaker 4: point four last year, so I'm thinking if he can't

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Speaker 4: even duplicate that, he's getting me in trouble. Because he

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Speaker 4: did score seven touchdowns last year, I think that's definitely

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Speaker 4: due for some regression. I see him scoring closer to

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Speaker 4: five or six, So it's a bit concerning for me

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Speaker 4: that they don't have another option to kind of distract

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Speaker 4: the defense. I think he'll see a lot of double teams.

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Speaker 4: So it's very tricky for me because I do want

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Speaker 4: to like him, but I'm kind of with Raybond where

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Speaker 4: it's I can't really see him improving on last year's

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Speaker 4: yarders numbers, which is definitely scary to me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, fifteen point eight yards per catchast year. It's kind

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Speaker 3: of the aj Brown conversation where you don't expect that

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Speaker 3: to increase just because that's kind of above average. And

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Speaker 3: then he averaged about four four point one catches per game.

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Speaker 3: I think that's reasonable. He posted some good games early

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Speaker 3: in the year with Kates Keenum when they threw a

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Speaker 3: lot more, and again, I just we just I don't

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Speaker 3: think we can expect them to be that aggressive throwing

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Speaker 3: the ball given the coaching staff and given the quarterback

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Speaker 3: and receiver situation.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there were a couple of times where he was

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Speaker 4: wide open and case Keenum couldn't hit him. And I'm

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Speaker 4: sure Dwayne Haskins will saw no better. So I mean

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Speaker 4: it's one of those things. If he had a good quarterback,

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Speaker 4: he'd be much much better.

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Speaker 2: Let's get to the NFC North and let's start with

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Speaker 2: the Packers here. After playing in the NFC Championship game,

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Speaker 2: the Packers took quarterback Jordan Love, running back aj Dillon,

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Speaker 2: and tied end h back Josiah Deguara with their first

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Speaker 2: three picks, and they failed to get a wide receiver

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Speaker 2: for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Oh boy, Sean, what is the

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Speaker 2: prop for the Packers?

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Speaker 4: Well, we're going with Aaron Jones total touchdowns because that's

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Speaker 4: that's the tricky one to project. He had nineteen last year,

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Speaker 4: which is pretty good. And right now, I mean the

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Speaker 4: question is how much we'll hear us not f right now,

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Speaker 4: I have n't projected for ten and a half, so

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Speaker 4: that's rushing and receiving combined. Ash.

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Speaker 3: That's a good line because I have him at ten flat.

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Speaker 3: And I know you were trying to get me to

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Speaker 3: take the over because you know I've been the guy

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Speaker 3: that's bullishano, but I'm still going over. Touchdowns are very volatile.

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Speaker 3: That for me to even have a guy projected for

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Speaker 3: ten is essentially like like you're at the top of

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Speaker 3: the week. So yeah, ten touchdowns for me for Aaron

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Speaker 3: Jones about eight rushing into receiving.

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Speaker 2: I'm with Raybon here, big surprise, although actually I'm pretty close.

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Speaker 2: I hate to say I actually also am pretty close

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Speaker 2: just based on the projections to ten touchdowns for Aaron Jones.

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Speaker 2: But I feel there's significant downside risk that isn't factored

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Speaker 2: into the median outcome. I think there is the pretty

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Speaker 2: strong possibility that a lot of the work in this

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Speaker 2: backfield ends up getting split between the three backs, and

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Speaker 2: that Aj Dillon ends up being the guy who scores

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Speaker 2: a lot of touchdowns because he's built like a guy

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Speaker 2: who would come in and score a lot of touchdowns.

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Speaker 5: Chris Raygan, No, No, the coaching staff is not gonna

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Speaker 5: give a rookie who never took an NFL snap the

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Speaker 5: ball at the most important point and part of the

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Speaker 5: game over a guy who tied for the wee read

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Speaker 5: in touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: That's just silly. That just won't happen. He's a third

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Speaker 3: string back and will be treated as such. He will

390
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Speaker 3: not jog on the field and stand next to Aaron

391
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Speaker 3: Rodgers Hall of Fame quarterback, who doesn't you barely trust

392
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Speaker 3: his own family, you know, to take take goal line

393
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Speaker 3: hand off from Aaron Rodgers. It's just not happening.

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Speaker 4: How heavy is aj Dillon? What's his weight like? Two

395
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 4: forty five fifty forty seven? To just give him the

396
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Speaker 4: ball and say run straight and save Aaron Jones for

397
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Speaker 4: you know, the other touches. I'm with Freeman. I have

398
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Speaker 4: Dylan getting three or four touchdowns which could impact Aaron Jones.

399
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Speaker 4: And there is a stretch you know where Devantae Adams

400
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,160
Speaker 4: is out for four games. Aaron Jones scores seven total

401
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Speaker 4: touchdowns with DeVante Adams in the lineup. I mean, that's

402
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Speaker 4: some significant touchdown competition right there. So I think that's

403
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,919
Speaker 4: that's another subtle thing that could be a cue that

404
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,920
Speaker 4: Aaron Jones gonna have some significant regression, but Rayvaughn, I'm

405
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Speaker 4: with you, he's one of my highest touchdown projections. Ten

406
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 4: and a half is really high. He's a guy, He's

407
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Speaker 4: the kind of guy that can score all over the field.

408
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,120
Speaker 4: So even AJ Dillon can't really cut his value that much.

409
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 4: But I think I'm with Freeman where they drafted AJ

410
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Speaker 4: Dillon for a reason. Maybe starting next year he's more

411
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Speaker 4: prominent offense, but I could just see them giving AJ

412
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Speaker 4: Gallen a few Vulture touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: I think it's different with teams who their head coach

414
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Speaker 3: plays it a large part in the draft process, and

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Speaker 3: I don't think Matt Leaflour actually does here in Green Bay,

416
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Speaker 3: so that that's kind of why i'm a little I'm

417
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Speaker 3: kind of on the other side of this. I think

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Speaker 3: Guten Cust and the GM they run the draft in

419
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,159
Speaker 3: with four plays the guy. So it's like when Seattle

420
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 3: drafted Rashaa Penny and Pete Carroll didn't really want to

421
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Speaker 3: play him for like a couple of years. Like you

422
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 3: could see a situation like that in Green Bay. So

423
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Speaker 3: I don't think it's I think they drafted him because

424
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Speaker 3: Aaron Jones may very well command too much value after

425
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 3: scoring all these touchdown because Matt Floor keeps giving.

426
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Speaker 4: Him the ball.

427
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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna keep riding with Jones.

428
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Speaker 4: I'll say this.

429
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Speaker 3: I'll say Jamal Williams scores more touchdowns this year than

430
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Speaker 3: AJ Dillons as well.

431
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Speaker 2: Book that book that is an egregious take?

432
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Speaker 3: Is it?

433
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Speaker 4: Is it?

434
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Speaker 3: Jamal Williams the actual head coach, not the not the

435
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Speaker 3: GM not the same people who drafted Jordan Loved and

436
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 3: traded up to get him, not the same people who

437
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 3: drafted an h back in the third round, but the

438
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 3: actual guy who controls the snaps gave Jamal Williams about

439
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,880
Speaker 3: forty percent of the snaps most week, most games last

440
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 3: week or more. I don't think that. I don't think

441
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 3: they're on the same page in terms of who they're

442
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 3: drafting and who they're and and what the coach wants

443
00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 3: in terms of playing the guys. That's why I Am

444
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,160
Speaker 3: not going to be swept up by the Green Bay

445
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 3: Packers draft edy decisions and have them impact what, you know,

446
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 3: the usage on the field.

447
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm sure that the head coach who when

448
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 2: he was an offensive coordinator launched Derrick Henry is going

449
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 2: to want no part of the guy who looks exactly

450
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 2: like Derrick Henry.

451
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 3: You know who he launched. He launched Aaron Jones. That's

452
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 3: who he launched, and he's gonna keep launching.

453
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 4: I can't wait for the first aj Dillon goal line touchdown. Freemant,

454
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 4: you better tag Raybon on Twitter?

455
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 5: Yeah?

456
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 2: Thanks, Okay, Let's let's move on the Vikings. Former offensive

457
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 2: coordinator Kevin Stefanski is now with the Browns, so Gary Kubiak,

458
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,120
Speaker 2: who's taken over, is the play caller. The team traded

459
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 2: away wide receiver Stefan Diggs to the Bills in the

460
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 2: off season, and running back Dalvin Cook is threatening to

461
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 2: hold out, So uh, some degree of uncertainty when we're

462
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 2: looking at the Vikings. Sean give us the prop.

463
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 4: So I'm going with Adam Feelen receiving yards per game.

464
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 4: I'm curious to hear your guys thoughts. You know how

465
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,359
Speaker 4: hell fair with out Diggs? How you expect him to

466
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 4: be on the wrong side of thirty this year. He's

467
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 4: a guy I'm not really getting him many drafts. I

468
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 4: think people are maybe over valume it's this isn't really

469
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 4: an offense. I'm investing in the passing game, So seeing

470
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 4: if you guys can help sharpen my projection here. But

471
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,199
Speaker 4: I have him at sixty seven and a half receiving

472
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 4: yards per game. Are you guys over or under that?

473
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,719
Speaker 3: I am under. I have him getting a significant, like

474
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 3: obviously share of the targets. But for me, it's just

475
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,359
Speaker 3: that I have Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense is

476
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 3: one of the lowest volume passing offenses in the league

477
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:37,199
Speaker 3: and that kind of impacts the what the receivers are

478
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 3: going to do. So yeah, I have him, I have

479
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 3: him closer to, you know, the sixty.

480
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 2: I'm there with raybon I have for the same reasons. Essentially,

481
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 2: I have him projected around sixty four, So I will

482
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,479
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a horrible line, and I can

483
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 2: see the upside that Adam Dealen could have if he's

484
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: highly efficient and if he just gets a lot of

485
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 2: the targets. But I just don't spect there to be

486
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 2: all that many targets to go around to begin with.

487
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 2: So I'm with Raveon here and taking the under.

488
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I'm with you, guys, And that's kind

489
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 4: of scary because he's not really a touchdown guy, so

490
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 4: he can't really supplement any you know, loss in yardage

491
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 4: or targets with extra touchdowns. So that's why it worries me.

492
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 4: Are you guys just not ending up with many shares

493
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 4: of feeling either, because I don't really have any so far,

494
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 4: and I've I've drafted a bunch of teams so far.

495
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 3: I was earlier in best Ball, but I think he's

496
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 3: kind of crept up in ADP to where now he's

497
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 3: going a lot closer to where I, you know, thought

498
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 3: he should initially be going. But I used to get

499
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 3: him like as like you know, the wide receiver twenty

500
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 3: five or something like early in the process, and now

501
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 3: you can't do that anymore. Now he's, like, I think,

502
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: valued a little more fairly because he does have upside.

503
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 3: He started twentyd and ATM I believe it was like

504
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 3: eight straight one hundred yard games, so he's certainly capable

505
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 3: of going off. It's just it's hard to expect the

506
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 3: Vikings to all of a sudden go past heavy when

507
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 3: they don't really have any receivers.

508
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you there on Raygaun. I'm not getting

509
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 2: any at this point any Adam Thalen and I still

510
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: think he's actually a little bit overvalued at this point,

511
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: but yeah, so probably won't be touching him. Let's go

512
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 2: to Detroit the Lions. Matt Stafford missed half of the

513
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen season, but last year he was actually the

514
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: number two fantasy quarterback in points per game, and he

515
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 2: has a promising supporting cast with wide receivers Kenny Galladay,

516
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 2: Marmon Jones, Dani and Mendola. And then in his second year,

517
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 2: we could see tight end t J. Hawkinson developed, and

518
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 2: of course they just drafted running back DeAndre Swift. Sean,

519
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 2: where are you with the Detroit Lions?

520
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 4: So I'm floating at TJ Hawkinson receiving yards per game prop.

521
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 4: I think he's fascinating project just based on what happened

522
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 4: last year. I mean, he's so talented. And then he

523
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 4: opened up with a six catch, one hundred and thirty

524
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 4: one yard touchdown game, and then it took him seven

525
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 4: games to combine for one hundred and thirty one receiving

526
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 4: yard after that, So it was the biggest teas I've

527
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 4: ever seen. And then in hindsight, he had that huge

528
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 4: game against the Cardinals, which every tight ended. So curious

529
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 4: to hear what you guys are on him entering year two.

530
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 4: I have him at thirty nine and a half for

531
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 4: saving yards. Are you guys above or below that?

532
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 2: I'm taking the under there. I have him projected for

533
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 2: around thirty five, But I should say I feel really

534
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 2: uncertain about my projection. He's just one of those upside

535
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 2: guys who could take a massive step forward in year two,

536
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 2: and so, you know, I think he's one of the

537
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 2: guys when you're drafting that you probably want to factor in,

538
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 2: especially because he's going later in the draft. You want

539
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 2: to factor in a little bit more of his upside

540
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 2: and a little bit less of what you think within

541
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 2: the median range of outcomes he's likely to do. But

542
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: I will take the under here.

543
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going under. I have him right around. You

544
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 3: said you have him at thirty five. Friedman, Yeah, yeah,

545
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 3: I have him at thirty six. So last year he

546
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 3: had two point seven catches for thirty point six yards

547
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 3: per game, So I'm projecting about three point three for

548
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 3: thirty six, and I think that's a reasonable jump for

549
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 3: you know, a tight end going from year one to

550
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 3: year two. I think he could eventually get to, you know,

551
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 3: push for maybe the mid forties or even fifty yards

552
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 3: per game, but that may happen a little bit later.

553
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 3: I think tight end's progression is a little bit slower

554
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 3: than wide receiver, where you usually see them make a big,

555
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,120
Speaker 3: big jump from year one to year two.

556
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 4: Yeah. I think that's the key with him is, you know,

557
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 4: we kind of expected him to be inconsistent his rookie season,

558
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 4: so the question is, I mean, is he going to

559
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 4: make a year two leap or year three leap? So

560
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 4: that's why I kind of have a little bit higher

561
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 4: I agree with Freeman. At that point in the drafts,

562
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 4: you're drafting upside anyway, So that's why he is one

563
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 4: of those tight ends I am targeting because you can

564
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 4: get him so late we're even if he doesn't pan out.

565
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 4: I think the tight end playerpool on the waiver wire

566
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 4: this year is going to be probably the best we've

567
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 4: ever seen. There's just so many guys now. The position

568
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 4: itself is getting better and more prominent, so I think

569
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 4: it's easier to take chances like t J. Hopkinson, like

570
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 4: we did on Austin Hooper and Mark Andrews last year.

571
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 4: It's like if they hit their league winners. If they don't,

572
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 4: there's probably another league winner like Darren Waller on the

573
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 4: waiver wires. So he's a guy where I go Freeman.

574
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 4: The upside's there, but we don't really know for sure.

575
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Chicago Bears. This offseason, the team

576
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: traded for quarterback Nick Foles, who has previously worked with

577
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 2: head coach Matt Neggy, offensive coordinator Bill Laser, and quarterbacks

578
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:32,719
Speaker 2: coach John d Philippa. So even though it's his first

579
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 2: year in Chicago, he knows the guys he's working for,

580
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 2: he knows the offensive system. And then of course we

581
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 2: have Alan Robinson, we have David Montgomery entering his second season,

582
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 2: Jimmy Graham has been added to the team. Sean give

583
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:47,159
Speaker 2: us the problem.

584
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 4: So last year, I think we were all pretty good

585
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 4: at being anti David Montgomery. We didn't really buy him

586
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 4: a hype. And you know, going into this season, I'm

587
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 4: conflicted because I think the workow is going to be there,

588
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 4: But I mean, can we expect any leap and efficiency

589
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 4: because it was pretty bad last year at the three

590
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 4: point sixty seven yards per carry, The depth charts pretty

591
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 4: weak there, So I don't know how he doesn't see

592
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 4: a big workload. So I'm going to float a prop

593
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 4: for total yards per game, so rushing and receiving yards,

594
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,719
Speaker 4: I have it set at seventy two and a half yards.

595
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 3: Oh, you got me to take it over. You got

596
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 3: me to take it over. I got I have him

597
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 3: at seventy seven and a half. And mainly because of

598
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 3: what I project to be a jump and rushing efficiency. Again,

599
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 3: yards per carry as a stat generally stabilizes around two

600
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 3: thousand carries, So even though a guy might go for

601
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 3: three point seven, you're still that's still only impacting his

602
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 3: projection maybe you know, ten percent, fifteen percent knocking it down,

603
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 3: So most guys are still going to be projected close

604
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 3: to four yards per carry. And and yeah, and don't

605
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 3: even have them catching that many passes, only about only

606
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 3: twenty six catches for Montgomery. But just the fact that

607
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 3: he's going to be one of the top leaders in

608
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: the league in terms of carries, I think that that

609
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: kind of gives him an edge. And I expect him

610
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: to be one of the highest touchdown scores on the Bears,

611
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 3: if not the highest. So yeah, it's not sexy, but

612
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 3: I think he'll be a rock solid RB two this

613
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 3: year because there's no one else. As you mentioned, Sean.

614
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 2: I'm with Raybon on almost everything he said there, so

615
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: I'm also taking the over. I have him at seventy

616
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 2: eight point five yards per game, so super similar. I also,

617
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: like Raybond, expect him to be used very much as

618
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 2: a runner, to be you know, maybe top five, top

619
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: eight in the league just in overall carries, but also

620
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 2: not used all that much as a receiver because I

621
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 2: expect a lot of the receiving workload in the backfield

622
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 2: to go to taricohen the one difference I think between

623
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 2: Raybon and I is that I'm just not expecting a

624
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: lot of a lot of touchdowns for Montgomery, in part

625
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: because I'm not expecting many touchdowns for the Bears in general.

626
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 2: So even though I think he's going to hit the

627
00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 2: over here on the yardage, and even though I think

628
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: he's going to be used a lot as a runner,

629
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 2: I'm just still really not all that interested in David

630
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 2: Montgomery this year, which is probably a bad take, but

631
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm just I'm having Sean Mi like you,

632
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: I'm having trouble getting excited about him.

633
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. I mean, we do like volume where he's

634
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 4: being drafted. He's one of the last like workhorse running

635
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 4: backs you can get, so he's valuable in that regard.

636
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 4: But I agree with you guys. You know it's unflattering.

637
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 4: But maybe this year, without the hype, maybe he'll actually

638
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 4: pay off where he's being drafted. I think it's his

639
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 4: ADP is pretty reasonable right now. I agree with you

640
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 4: guys that you know he's going to have a pretty

641
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 4: high touchdown sharing this offense. But how many touchdowns this

642
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 4: Bears offense can generate is the issue that's kind of

643
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 4: his ceiling right there. Is you know, this offense isn't

644
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 4: going to present many touchdowns and I don't think you

645
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 4: can create many on his own. So he's just kind

646
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 4: of a middling RB two and I think we just

647
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 4: have to accept that at this point.

648
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 3: One thing with the Bears in their offense is like

649
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 3: they scored seventeen and a half points per game last year,

650
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,239
Speaker 3: Montgomery got seven touchdowns. How much lower can can they

651
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 3: go than seventeen and a half? Like that's if they

652
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: do any worse, it would be oh man, it would

653
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 3: be problematic. So just like the natural regression from I

654
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 3: don't really project any team to score seventeen and a

655
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 3: half points except maybe the Washington team, so I think

656
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 3: that's where the extra touchdowns are coming from. Like he has,

657
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 3: I think he has a high touchdown ceiling. If they

658
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: just score like twenty twenty three points or twenty even,

659
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 3: he has a ceiling. But I agree he also has

660
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 3: a little floor because they could just not score much

661
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 3: at all.

662
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 2: Let's go to the NFC South and let's start with

663
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 2: the New Orleans Saints. They have probably been the best

664
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 2: team in the NFC over the past three years. They

665
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: have maybe the NFL's best quarterback, running back, and wide

666
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 2: receiver Trio and Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas.

667
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot to be enthusiastic about when

668
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 2: you are looking at the Saints. Sean give us the

669
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: player prop.

670
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 4: So we're going with Alvin Kamara total touchdowns this year.

671
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 4: He was pretty disappointing in that department. He only had

672
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 4: six last year despite having thirteen and eighteen the two

673
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 4: years before. So we're expecting some pretty big positive regression here.

674
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 4: The question is how much I have his line set

675
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 4: at ten and a half, so this is rushing and

676
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 4: receiving touchdowns.

677
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 2: I could have told you even before you gave the

678
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 2: line that I was going to take the over for

679
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 2: a couple of reasons. One your book making tendencies. I

680
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 2: think whenever there's a guy who has had a lot

681
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 2: of touchdowns and then one year where he sees a

682
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 2: really significant dip, that's a guy that you like to

683
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 2: come back to when setting props for the two of us.

684
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 2: So one, I knew you were just going to kind

685
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 2: of take that guy, be like, he didn't score many

686
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 2: touchdowns last year, so I knew I'd been taking the

687
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 2: over there. But then also just I'm expecting so much

688
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 2: from this Saints offense, and I do think that based

689
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: on what Kamara did and the efficiency that he had

690
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 2: in his first two seasons, we're going to see a

691
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 2: pretty big bounce back in touchdowns scoring for Kamara. So

692
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: I don't want to say how high I'm projecting him

693
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 2: in touchdowns because it's embarrassing. But whatever number you had set,

694
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 2: because you're a reasonable person, I knew I would be

695
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 2: taking the over on it.

696
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 4: Let's hear it. Does it start with twelve?

697
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 2: Yes?

698
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 4: Yes, yes, I mean I can get behind that. I mean,

699
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 4: he definitely has the potential, So you're not I don't

700
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 4: think you're crazy.

701
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 3: I have him. I have him, I'm going over again,

702
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 3: so you got me to go over again. But now

703
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 3: you have both of us on kind of the same

704
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 3: side here. I have him for eleven point eight, so

705
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 3: I'm actually close with the with you, Friedman, I'm about

706
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 3: a touchdown over Sean. I think when I project touchdowns,

707
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 3: I kind of look at a couple of things. Number

708
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 3: one is, you know, the player's touchdown rates previously, but

709
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 3: also factoring into that is how good the the quarterback is,

710
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 3: how good the offense is. And with Drew Brees, I

711
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 3: think there's just a lot of avenues for Camara to

712
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 3: reach a very high total. One is Drew Brees and

713
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 3: the offense keeps humming, in which case, Kamara has what

714
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 3: is it, ten receiving touchdowns you know, in his career

715
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 3: in only three season, so that's that's very good. And

716
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 3: in thirty seven total and forty five in forty five games,

717
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 3: so he's scoring about seventy five percent of the time.

718
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 3: I think, I think, you know, eleven for a guy

719
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 3: who plays about probably gonna play about fourteen to fifteen games.

720
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be eleven or more if he

721
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:15,720
Speaker 3: stayed healthy.

722
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, you guys are on to me, that's that's unfortunate.

723
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 4: I do like the over here as well. And I

724
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 4: did a piece on RUSSI attempts inside the five yard

725
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,839
Speaker 4: line for all teams and trying to project that up

726
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 4: on Action network dot com right now. And you know,

727
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 4: the Saints are interesting because in twenty eighteen, they by

728
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 4: far led the league with forty RUSSI attempts inside the

729
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 4: five yard line. I mean that was seven attempts more

730
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 4: than even second place, and then last year they had

731
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 4: the six fewests with fifteen. I mean, we would expect

732
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,439
Speaker 4: the offense this potent to be closer to the top five.

733
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 4: So I'm projecting them just inside the top five for

734
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,720
Speaker 4: attempts this year, and I have Camara getting sixty percent

735
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 4: of those. You know, he has to deal with Breeze

736
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 4: sneaking in from the one tays him hell bullshit packages

737
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 4: and even Latavius Murray, but they still do like giving

738
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 4: Kamara those carries. So I have him with sixty percent

739
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 4: of the goal line touches and he's capable of scoring

740
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 4: from anywhere on the field. So yeah, I do like

741
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,280
Speaker 4: the over ten and a half here as well.

742
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Who might be

743
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 2: the most exciting team in the league, or at least

744
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 2: the NFC this year, at least from a preseason perspective

745
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 2: of thinking about what this team might do. For the

746
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,959
Speaker 2: first time since two thousand, Tom Brady is no longer

747
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 2: a Patriot. He and longtime tight end Rob Bronkowski signed

748
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 2: with the Bucks this offseason, joining forces with wide receivers

749
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:41,720
Speaker 2: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and of course Ronald Jones

750
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: running back Sean give us the player prop here.

751
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 4: So we're going with the proper that I think it's

752
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 4: going to dictate the fancy value of everybody on this offense.

753
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 4: But it's Tom Brady's passing touchdowns. I still haven't decided

754
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 4: which number one I go, because there's two numbers. I

755
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 4: haven't figured out which one. But I'm going to set

756
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 4: the line at thirty and a half and see where

757
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 4: you guys are on the over under here.

758
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: That is a great line. Were you debating between twenty

759
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 2: nine and a half? Yeah, in thirty and a half, Yeah,

760
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 2: that's those Okay, that's what I was thinking. Because I

761
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 2: have this at thirty, so I will take I will

762
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 2: take the under on thirty and a half. But that's

763
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 2: a great line.

764
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 4: I'll give you thirty exactly for ten to one odds.

765
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 2: Uh no, thank you, But that is a great line

766
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 2: that you've set there.

767
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, Sean, that is that's a great line because I

768
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,479
Speaker 3: know you were debating between twenty nine and thirty because

769
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 3: you were thinking Friedman's projection was probably a little higher

770
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 3: than mine. And Friedman said he had thirty and I

771
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:46,399
Speaker 3: have exactly twenty nine, And so I'm but you're your

772
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 3: prediction accuracy is in mid season formow nice, Well.

773
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 4: My projection is twenty nine and a half. Let's let's

774
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 4: just put that out there. So it's right down the

775
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 4: middle of you too. It sounds like a right in

776
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 4: a line.

777
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I mean, what is there to say this.

778
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 4: It's it's interesting from the perspective of none of us

779
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 4: have ever had to project Tom Brady on any other team,

780
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 4: So it's just fascinating. And and like I said, you know,

781
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 4: when it comes to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Bronkowski,

782
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 4: you know how many touchdowns are you projecting to go

783
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 4: around this offense? So I think that this is a

784
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 4: projection that really does dictate the fantasy value of everybody

785
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 4: on this offense.

786
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's really hard, and I'd like to get

787
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 2: Raymond's thoughts on this week. We talked about it on

788
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 2: the on the Serious XM Show. It's a situation where

789
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 2: I think we actually see potentially Mike Evans and Chris

790
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 2: Godwin take a step back in fantasy scoring. Not because

791
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 2: they aren't awesome players, and you know, I think they

792
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 2: can still produce in the yardage department. It's just you know,

793
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 2: Rob Bronkowski is going to get his share of the

794
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 2: touchdowns and there will be fewer touchdowns and also just

795
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,800
Speaker 2: fewer yards, fewer passing yards in general to go around

796
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 2: in this offense. And so I think it's possible we

797
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 2: see Evans and Godwin take a step back. But Raybond,

798
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 2: where are you on this?

799
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that that's certainly possible in terms of

800
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 3: the bottom line numbers, But from a target share perspective,

801
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 3: which is, you know, one of the biggest things that's

802
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 3: going to go into projections, I think that they still

803
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 3: are near the top of the league. I think they

804
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 3: still are both going to push for you know, a

805
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 3: quarter of the team's targets each and so overall, it

806
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,479
Speaker 3: doesn't really hurt my fantasy rankings for them. I still

807
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 3: expect him to be, you know, in the in the

808
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 3: top eight. It's just that I don't expect the kind

809
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 3: of big numbers and explosive numbers as often as we

810
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 3: did last year when and I said this on a

811
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 3: serious sir, Jameis Winston was playing shootout ball with himself,

812
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,160
Speaker 3: like he would throw a touchdown to the other team,

813
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 3: throw a touchdown on his own team to catch up,

814
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 3: throw another pick to the other team, have to get

815
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:47,000
Speaker 3: his team back in the game.

816
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 4: You know.

817
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 3: It's just kind of he was playing with himself and

818
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 3: that led to big numbers for the receivers. I mean,

819
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 3: for Shad Perriman. The most egregious thing about this whole

820
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 3: thing with Jameis Winston is that for Shaan Perrlman got

821
00:38:56,680 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 3: paid off, Mike Evans and and god Win getting injured

822
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 3: at the end of the season, Rashan Perrman had like

823
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 3: eleven catches in his other you know, nine games or

824
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 3: whatever it was. So it's really a Jamis Winston effect

825
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 3: that that's going to kind of knock Evans and Godwin

826
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 3: down a bit.

827
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 4: I agree with everything Raybaund said. I do anticipate this

828
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 4: offense looking different just because they're going to be leading

829
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 4: more you know, less turnovers, more ball control. Their defense

830
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 4: is definitely improving, especially at the end of last year,

831
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 4: the defense improved a ton. So it could just be

832
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 4: a different football team, or they're more efficient. They don't

833
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 4: need to keep throwing. So I think this offense will

834
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 4: be more you know, efficient in the first half, let's say,

835
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:38,479
Speaker 4: But then the second half, you know, they're not gonna

836
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 4: have to be slinging around as much as we saw jamis.

837
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:42,760
Speaker 4: But you know, I think they'll still put up good numbers.

838
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 4: It just might might not be as high as people think.

839
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 2: Sean unofficial prop question here, can you give me the

840
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 2: projection or set a number for Ronald Jones total touchdowns?

841
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,919
Speaker 4: Oh, that's a good one I have. I would set

842
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 4: the line for us rushing and receiving combined.

843
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't think we're gonna give him

844
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 2: much on the receiving end anyway, but might as well

845
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 2: just kind of combine it.

846
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 4: I would set it. I would set it at seven

847
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 4: and a half. I do like him this year, so

848
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 4: I hope that sounds high. But where do you guys

849
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 4: sit on that second and a half.

850
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 2: That's actually pretty close to what I have. I'm around eight,

851
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: so I would lean over there, but I think that's

852
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 2: a good line. I think people would look at that

853
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 2: and think that it's high, but I think it's realistic.

854
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, they gave Peyton Barber. I think it was eleven

855
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 4: carries inside the five yard line and he scored on

856
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 4: four of them. Where is Ronald Jones was four for

857
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 4: four on those rushing temps. So, I mean he's proven

858
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 4: that he can be a goal line back, and I

859
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 4: think that's the key here is if he gets the

860
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 4: goal line carries, especially with the Tom Brady led offense,

861
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 4: I mean, there's potential for double digit rushing touchdowns. I

862
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 4: don't think it'll hit it, but there's potential for sure.

863
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't met seven point seven, so we're all

864
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 3: in line.

865
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 4: Yeah that's total. That's for total.

866
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's for total. And it's really goes back to

867
00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 3: like what you said, like they're going to be more efficient.

868
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 3: So Brady coming over I think has a positive impact

869
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 3: on the on the running backs as well.

870
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Atlanta Falcons this offseason. They basically

871
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 2: replaced running back Devonte Freeman and tighten Austin Hooper with

872
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 2: running back Todd Gurley and Titan Hayden Hurst and then

873
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 2: of course we still have that trio there quarterback Matt

874
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 2: Ryan and wide receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Sean

875
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 2: give us the prop.

876
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 4: So this is a Todd Gurley prop. This is total

877
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 4: touchdowns as well, just because I think at this station

878
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 4: in his career he's going to kind of rely on

879
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:36,799
Speaker 4: touchdowns for fantasy value. So I think it's critical to

880
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 4: get this projection right. I have him at ten and

881
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 4: a half totll touchdowns under under.

882
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 2: I appreciate. I appreciate that number, and I see how

883
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: you get there, but I'm smashing the under on that.

884
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 2: I do think this is going to be an offense,

885
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 2: you know, like like we saw in previous years that

886
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 2: was pretty prolific and had the opera oportunity of giving

887
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 2: running backs a good number of touchdowns. But I just

888
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 2: think that at some point we see Todd Gurley decline

889
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 2: and the team just figures we're not going to use

890
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 2: this guy as just a ceremonial goal line back. He's

891
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 2: just pretty much not going to be playing that much.

892
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you look at the Falcons backfield last year,

893
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 3: a lot of people say, Okay, well, Todd grow is

894
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 3: just going to inherit the Devonte Freeman role, and I

895
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 3: think I don't think that's exactly true, because I think

896
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:31,320
Speaker 3: Grow is a much better pass blocker than Freeman, so

897
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: they'll be use a little differently in the past game.

898
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:37,720
Speaker 3: But the Falcons backfield overall only had a nine rushing

899
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 3: touchdowns combined last year. And this is one of the

900
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:43,879
Speaker 3: teams where again I usually never expect coaches to give

901
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 3: young guys carries by the goal line, but they had.

902
00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:51,359
Speaker 3: They actually did give Quadri Allison a bunch of goal

903
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 3: line carries even when they had the other starters active.

904
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,760
Speaker 3: And Allison really doesn't profile as a guy that would

905
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 3: do anything else, so if he's act if that could

906
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 3: actually be an issue. But even so, even if Gurley

907
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 3: gets like all of or nearly all of the rushing touchdowns,

908
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 3: they only scored nine last year, and Cutters first year

909
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 3: Dirt Cutters first year back as the OC. So I

910
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 3: that combined with the fact that I think Girley's at

911
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 3: a big kind of like downside risk of finally missing

912
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 3: a substantial chunk of games, I'm going I'm going way

913
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 3: under there.

914
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 4: I do like the under ten and a half. Ray

915
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 4: baughn This offense is, you know, just as potent as

916
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 4: the Rams, But you know, the Rams have been in

917
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 4: the top five the past two seasons and rush attempts

918
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 4: inside the five, and the Falcons have been in the

919
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 4: bottom five. So I think it just goes to say,

920
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 4: like you said, dirt cutter maybe prefers to pass in

921
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 4: those situations. Either way, it's going to sap Gurley's value

922
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 4: if he can't hit double digit touchdowns because I don't

923
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 4: think the yards are going to be there. They're going

924
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 4: to have to limit him to keep him healthy, and

925
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 4: like you said, keeping him healthy is the biggest question mark.

926
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,040
Speaker 4: So yeah, I do like the under ten and a

927
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 4: half for sure, but I'd probably even lean the under

928
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:58,439
Speaker 4: nine and a half as well.

929
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 2: I would lean I would still lean under nine and

930
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 2: a half. Let's talk about the Panthers. Head coach Ron Rivera,

931
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 2: offensive coordinators Nord Turner and Scott Turner, and quarterback Cam

932
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 2: Newton have been replaced by Baylor head coach Matt Ruhle,

933
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 2: LSU offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and Saints backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

934
00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 2: So a lot of change at the top and then

935
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 2: also at the quarterback position, but we still have some

936
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 2: of those same guys there. We have the wide receivers

937
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 2: and Curtis Samuel and of course DJ Moore, and then

938
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 2: running back Christian McCaffrey, the number one Fantasy player at

939
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:37,320
Speaker 2: his position last year. Sean give us the prop.

940
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 4: So, yeah, the most critical projection to get right for

941
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:44,399
Speaker 4: this whole offense, I think is Teddy Bridgewater passing yards

942
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 4: per game. The question is, really, they have all these

943
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 4: great pass catchers, how many of them can we really

944
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 4: trust on a week's week basis, And I think it

945
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 4: all stems from how many yards we can expect Bridgewater

946
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 4: to throw per game. Right now, I have them at

947
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 4: two fifty four and a half.

948
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 2: I will take the under. I have two forty eightish.

949
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: I think there's significant room for upside with this offense,

950
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:16,399
Speaker 2: like actually underappreciated room because of Joe Brady, because of rule,

951
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 2: and because of the talent that they have assembled on

952
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:22,919
Speaker 2: that team. But I'm still going to lean a little

953
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: bit on the under there. Teddy Bridgewater is just not

954
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 2: a prolific type of passer, So taking the under, yeah, I.

955
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,359
Speaker 3: Have him right around to forty. So going under as well.

956
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 3: I think there's kind of still some questions about fit

957
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 3: in terms of the guys outside of McCaffrey and more

958
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 3: because Robbie Anderson is more of a deep ball down

959
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 3: the field guy. Teddy Bridgewater has never been a quarterback

960
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 3: that's gone down the field, and I think another argument

961
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 3: just in general with kind of going under Bridgewater's passing

962
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 3: numbers is even though he can be very efficient and

963
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 3: kind of really raise the market for himself forward his

964
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 3: last couple of years, he's still guy who averages only

965
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 3: about six to six and a half in terms of

966
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 3: his average depth of target down the field, and so

967
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 3: he could be a highly efficient quarterback, but he would

968
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 3: need an extremely high volume passing offense to to put

969
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 3: a big number just because he's kind of, you know,

970
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 3: dinking and dunking.

971
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you know. When Freebon mentioned they have

972
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 4: a new head coach, new offensive corner and even new

973
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 4: defensive coordinator and a new quarterback, they're the only team

974
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:28,720
Speaker 4: that has a new all of those four positions heading

975
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 4: to the year, and I think especially this season with

976
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 4: no offseason, continuity is going to be even more crucial,

977
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 4: so they could really struggle out of the gate. But

978
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 4: you know, I think for Bridge Rutter to go over this,

979
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 4: he's gonna need his the pass catchers to do a

980
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 4: lot after the catch, which they have shown they can do.

981
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 4: But I agree, I think Robbie Anderson is going to

982
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,280
Speaker 4: be the odd man out on this. I would hope

983
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 4: they throw it to him every so often just to

984
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 4: keep the defense honest, to really open up you know,

985
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 4: McCaffrey more and even Curtis Samuel and Thomas. But yeah,

986
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 4: if you guys are lower on that, that that works

987
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:06,439
Speaker 4: me for some of these other guys like a Curtis

988
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 4: Samuel like and Ian Thomas, where I don't think you

989
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 4: guys think there's there's many yards to really give them

990
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 4: fans value a week to week No, not, I'm not.

991
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 3: High on Thomas at all, Like I think that just

992
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 3: looking at his per route numbers, they they haven't been good.

993
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 3: And Samuel as well. Samuel has been very inefficient and

994
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 3: just he hasn't really gotten it done down the field.

995
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 3: So even if they transitioned him too more like a D. D.

996
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 3: Westbrook type, you know, short receiver like we saw with

997
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 3: Westbrook last year when his ad out dipped like under seven,

998
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 3: even if he catches like four balls a game. There's

999
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,720
Speaker 3: just not much fantasy value there because we also, i'm guessing,

1000
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 3: don't really expect Bridgewater to throw a ton of touchdowns,

1001
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 3: and if he does, we probably expect them many of

1002
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 3: them to go to McCaffrey, which, unlike most teams, McCaffrey

1003
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 3: takes such a large share of the receiving workload that

1004
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 3: it also makes it hard for like your your you know,

1005
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 3: your second third wide receivers, your your other tight end,

1006
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 3: your tight end to put up good numbers because you

1007
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 3: have the running back taking such a substantial portion that

1008
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:04,439
Speaker 3: usually wouldn't be the case.

1009
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, we saw last year when Bridge Ruder started for

1010
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 4: the Saints. All he did was dump it off to

1011
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 4: Kamara and Michael Thomas. So he has proven that he

1012
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 4: can just lock in on guys like that. So yeah,

1013
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 4: Dj Moore and Kritian mccaffe are probably pretty safe in

1014
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 4: this offense.

1015
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's close it out here with the NFC West,

1016
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: and let's start with the forty nine Ers, who were

1017
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 2: seemingly one throwaway from winning the Super Bowl last year.

1018
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 2: It looks like most of their key offensive players will

1019
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 2: be back. Jimmy Garoppolo is entering his second full season

1020
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,760
Speaker 2: as the starting quarterback and a team drafted wide receiver

1021
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 2: Brandon Ayuk in round one. Sean give us the prop.

1022
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 4: So this is the prop that I think is holding

1023
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 4: George kittleback from being my number one tight end, and

1024
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 4: it's his receiving touchdowns. Here's to hear where you guys

1025
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:50,399
Speaker 4: weigh in on this. But I have his over under

1026
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 4: set at six and a half and you know his

1027
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,279
Speaker 4: career high as five. He's had five in the past

1028
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 4: two seasons. So if he can see any sort of

1029
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:00,359
Speaker 4: positive aggression here, I think he has potential to knock

1030
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,360
Speaker 4: off Kelsey's at the top ten end. But curious to

1031
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 4: hear if you guys are over under six and a.

1032
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 2: Half, I am under six and a half. I have

1033
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 2: him closer to five and a half. Actually a little

1034
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 2: bit closer to six, but still under.

1035
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 4: So close.

1036
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 2: But under that said, I still actually have him as

1037
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 2: the number one tight end in my projections because I

1038
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 2: still expect him to have a really healthy number of

1039
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 2: yards in receptions.

1040
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go under, but ah, I think around

1041
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 3: right around between five and a half and six is

1042
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 3: where he'll end up. Now we have seen him for

1043
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 3: about three seasons. He has run a substantial number of

1044
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 3: routes at this point, so you know, starting to look

1045
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:43,040
Speaker 3: at his touchdown rate is going to be a little

1046
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 3: bit more predictive. And we also don't expect the forty

1047
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 3: nine Ers to be a pass heavy team, which I

1048
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 3: think if Kittle were on most other teams, you would

1049
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 3: probably project him closer to seven seven and a half.

1050
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:58,399
Speaker 3: But this team is usually going to be run heavy,

1051
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:00,160
Speaker 3: and I think that might be even more so with

1052
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 3: all the young guys at receiver and Deebo Samuel going

1053
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 3: down potentially for the beginning of the season.

1054
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 4: I don't think he has double digit touchdown potential, especially

1055
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 4: in this offense. But you know, Emeo Sanders has gone

1056
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 4: debo might not be one hundred percent. It's just odd

1057
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 4: to me that he wouldn't really be a six to

1058
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 4: eight touchdown kind of guy. So I think that's where

1059
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 4: he can kind of surprise people this year. So I'm

1060
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 4: holding out hope that he will see a positive regression

1061
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 4: season in touchdowns and maybe hit seven or eight. But

1062
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,320
Speaker 4: I agree with you guys, I think he has limited

1063
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 4: somewhat with this offense, and just the forty nine Ers

1064
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,839
Speaker 4: are just a really good ball control kind of team

1065
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 4: that they don't need to score that much, but I

1066
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:40,880
Speaker 4: could see him definitely popping off for seven or eight

1067
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:41,279
Speaker 4: this year.

1068
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Seattle Seahawks, and you know, the

1069
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 2: story with them is always Russell Wilson, how great he is.

1070
00:50:49,719 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 2: It feels year in and year out, especially with offensive

1071
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 2: coordinator offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, that Russell Wilson's full potential

1072
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 2: has never really been unlocked in this offense. And so

1073
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 2: one of the big questions is, you know, how many

1074
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 2: how many passing attempts are we going to see out

1075
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:07,360
Speaker 2: of Russell Wilson. Is he really going to be the

1076
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 2: guy who leads this offense instead of a guy who

1077
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:12,440
Speaker 2: hands it off to Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde and

1078
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 2: Rashaw Penny. Another big question, do we see dk Metcalf

1079
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 2: take a big step forward in his second season? Sean

1080
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 2: give us the prompt.

1081
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 4: Yep, you're a spot on. I'm going with Russell Wilson

1082
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 4: passnards per game. That's always the biggest question going in

1083
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 4: the season. We're we're kind of curious if Pete Carroll's

1084
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 4: gonna get with the times and unleash Russell Wilson. I mean,

1085
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 4: if there was potential for Wilson to throw six hundred

1086
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 4: times or more this year, which, let's face it, there

1087
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 4: the legion of boom is over. This defense is mediocre

1088
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:46,840
Speaker 4: at best. Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks

1089
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 4: in the game. They should absolutely be throwing Martin. I

1090
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 4: think they'll find if they throw it early and often

1091
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:53,479
Speaker 4: in games, they probably won't have to come back as much.

1092
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 4: So that the question is, really, you know, what can

1093
00:51:56,840 --> 00:52:00,239
Speaker 4: we expect from Wilson this year? And I have his

1094
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:03,800
Speaker 4: passing yards per game set at two fifty five and

1095
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 4: a half, but clearly there's upside for more.

1096
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be a little blasphemous here and take the under.

1097
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:13,000
Speaker 2: I have it significantly under. I have it closer to

1098
00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:16,000
Speaker 2: two forty, which I know is kind of egregious, But

1099
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:19,839
Speaker 2: I'm just still expecting that the Seahawks will be a

1100
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,799
Speaker 2: pretty run focused team. And I still think even with that,

1101
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, because he's so efficient at turning his his

1102
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 2: his attempts into touchdowns and he's also one of the

1103
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:31,920
Speaker 2: better runners in the league, I still expect him to

1104
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 2: finish as a top six fantasy quarterback, but I just

1105
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 2: don't think he's going to do a lot of it

1106
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:39,800
Speaker 2: through the air with his yard.

1107
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 3: Its Yeah, I have him at two forty six and

1108
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 3: that is still I still have him being very efficient.

1109
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:50,280
Speaker 3: But I think the thing with Wilson really two things.

1110
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 3: Number one, they want to be a run heavy team

1111
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:56,200
Speaker 3: and number two, So like if you look at his

1112
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 3: media and over the last five years or so, it's

1113
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 3: around two it's around that number, but the last two

1114
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 3: years he had about two fifty seven last year, but

1115
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 3: just two fifteen the year before and those two years

1116
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 3: with Brian Schottenheimer, and I think, you know, that's kind

1117
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 3: of the range of outcomes where if they can run

1118
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,839
Speaker 3: the ball as much as possible, they still will if

1119
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 3: they have to throw it, that's when they'll you'll see

1120
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 3: it kind of go a little higher. But overall, I

1121
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 3: think the range of outcomes tilts more downward than a

1122
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 3: median of two fifty five. Shottenheimer in his career as

1123
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 3: an offensive coordinator is in the thirty third percentile in

1124
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 3: terms of pass attempts and he hasn't had a finish

1125
00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 3: higher than seventeen thirteen, so he's only had one in

1126
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 3: eleven years, where he's been higher than the league average

1127
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:43,720
Speaker 3: in past attempts the last four years as a OC

1128
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 3: twenty eighth, twenty third, thirty second, twenty third in past attempts,

1129
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:50,840
Speaker 3: So don't know if it's going to happen unfortunately.

1130
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, I agree with you guys. I'm cautiously, cautiously

1131
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 4: optimistic that they'll figure it out. But we've seen, you know,

1132
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:00,360
Speaker 4: that's basically his floor right now is stuck in this

1133
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:04,200
Speaker 4: prehistoric sort of offense. But you know, I compared it

1134
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 4: to you know, reading those reports of like minor earthquakes

1135
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:14,440
Speaker 4: near Yellowstone Park, where any hint anything floated out there

1136
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 4: in the universe that Pete Carroll might throw more this year.

1137
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 4: Just we have to be prepared for and we just

1138
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:23,920
Speaker 4: know the potential of Russell Wilson if they were to Unleasham.

1139
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:26,359
Speaker 4: So I'm always monitoring it, and especially you know, if

1140
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 4: they sign a guy like Antonio Brown, that might be

1141
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 4: a hint that they're gonna let him throw more. So

1142
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 4: it's one of those things where I'm expecting them to

1143
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 4: just run out of time this year and he'll be

1144
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:37,960
Speaker 4: a you know, QB six like we've seen. But there's

1145
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 4: potential for you know QB one overall upside here, So yeah,

1146
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 4: I agree with you guys though that it's probably not

1147
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:43,480
Speaker 4: gonna happen.

1148
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 2: Let's get to the Los Angeles Rams. Running back Todd

1149
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:51,399
Speaker 2: Gurley and wide receiver Brandon Cooks are gone. Seemingly They've

1150
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:54,360
Speaker 2: been replaced by running back Cam Akers and wide receiver

1151
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 2: Van Jefferson, the team's top draft picks from this last draft. Sean,

1152
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 2: give us the props.

1153
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 4: It's got to be Tyler Higbee for the prop. If

1154
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,399
Speaker 4: he's able to pick up where he left off last year,

1155
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,880
Speaker 4: he's absolutely a top five tight end. The question is

1156
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 4: will he And I think that the main question is

1157
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 4: how much will Gerald Everett sort of a factor in

1158
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,960
Speaker 4: this year? And you know, lower his his yards per game?

1159
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 4: Right now, I have Higbee's receiving yards per game. I

1160
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 4: have the lines at forty seven and a half. Are

1161
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 4: you guys above or below that.

1162
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 3: That's a good line. I am just below at forty five,

1163
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 3: So I haven't about catching about four for forty five

1164
00:55:33,680 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 3: on a per game basis. I do think that he

1165
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 3: will continue to play that role. I don't think Gerald

1166
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 3: ever will be much of a factor because Evertty even

1167
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 3: came back near the end of last year. People forget that,

1168
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:48,080
Speaker 3: like he was actually back and active for a game

1169
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:50,919
Speaker 3: or two and still didn't really play with hate when

1170
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,239
Speaker 3: once Higby started going off. I think the one thing

1171
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 3: with Higbee is to be careful about, as you mentioned earlier,

1172
00:55:56,520 --> 00:56:00,440
Speaker 3: sean overrating the games against the Cardinals, because he did

1173
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:02,719
Speaker 3: have a big game in there against the Cardinals and

1174
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:05,239
Speaker 3: that will always prop up the numbers. But overall, I

1175
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:08,760
Speaker 3: think if you look at what mcmcvay's doing, their offensive

1176
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 3: line isn't very good. They didn't really address it in

1177
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 3: the draft. Instead they added more skill players. I think

1178
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:16,480
Speaker 3: he's trying to transition to more of an intermediate talk

1179
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,319
Speaker 3: short to intermediate targets in the offense that God can

1180
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:21,480
Speaker 3: just get rid of the ball quick. Brandon Cooks didn't

1181
00:56:21,480 --> 00:56:23,919
Speaker 3: really fit that, and I think that's why you saw

1182
00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:26,280
Speaker 3: Cooks have a really down season even when he was healthy,

1183
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 3: and they kind of transitioned more to Higbey. So I

1184
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 3: do think the role continues. Just those outrageous numbers can't

1185
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 3: possibly keep on.

1186
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:38,560
Speaker 2: He averaged over his last five games to the season

1187
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:41,879
Speaker 2: one hundred and four point four yards per game, So

1188
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 2: that's that's what I'm going to project him for this

1189
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 2: upcoming season, and I'll take the over. No, I am

1190
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:51,800
Speaker 2: taking the over, but I think Sean, your line is

1191
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 2: good and you're splitting the action there between Raybon and me,

1192
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 2: and I have him at fifty three ish yards and

1193
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 2: you know, I still think he's going to be I

1194
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:05,280
Speaker 2: would say, the third most targeted guy in that offense.

1195
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 2: You know, Cooper Cup and Robert Woods are clearly going

1196
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:11,439
Speaker 2: to be the two dominant guys, but I think after that,

1197
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 2: Higbee plays ahead of Everett. I think he beats out

1198
00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 2: into the running backs for targets. I think at this

1199
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,840
Speaker 2: point he's the third option, and so I do like

1200
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 2: him to hit the over there.

1201
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there was a point last year I

1202
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 4: think the books were offering a player prop something ridiculous

1203
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:30,000
Speaker 4: like sixty two and a half. I hammered the under

1204
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 4: and he had that by halftime. I mean, it was

1205
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:35,120
Speaker 4: just insane what he did last year, and we can't

1206
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 4: take that away from him. But I think just going

1207
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 4: into this year, I don't think that's sustainable. Like you said,

1208
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 4: I think they're going to spread it around a bit more.

1209
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:45,600
Speaker 4: I have him as the third highest targets on the offense,

1210
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 4: but just I mean, it's going to be impossible for

1211
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:50,400
Speaker 4: him to sustain what we saw at the end of

1212
00:57:50,440 --> 00:57:50,919
Speaker 4: last year.

1213
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 2: Okay, the final team here, the Arizona Cardinals head coach

1214
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:58,600
Speaker 2: Cliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray are entering their second

1215
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 2: year in the league. And then the big, the big

1216
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:03,720
Speaker 2: piece of news here, All Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins

1217
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:07,920
Speaker 2: was added in an off season trade. Sean, give us

1218
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 2: the prop.

1219
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:11,640
Speaker 4: It is a DeAndre Hopkins prop. And I'm ending my

1220
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 4: fellow Kyler Murray Truthers to help me out here. This

1221
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 4: is a tricky one. I'm not gonna lie. I have

1222
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:21,280
Speaker 4: his receiving yards per game at seventy four and a half.

1223
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:25,200
Speaker 2: It's a great line. I will take the over, but

1224
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:28,800
Speaker 2: just barely. I have it at seventy five and a half.

1225
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 4: Wow, I have it at.

1226
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 3: Seventy three, So a good, good line. And again I

1227
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 3: think I think, just you know, kind of listening to

1228
00:58:37,920 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 3: us go through these projections, I'm a little more conservative

1229
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 3: in the probably the yards per catch. I guess it

1230
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 3: is Hopkins has he started to be. He's a He's

1231
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 3: great at getting open, but because he gets opened so

1232
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:52,840
Speaker 3: much and quarterback will throw to him, even when he's

1233
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 3: not fully open, I think his yards per catch starts

1234
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 3: to suffer sometimes, So you know, he was down to

1235
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:00,800
Speaker 3: around eleven yards per catch last year, haven't projected for

1236
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 3: a little over twelve this year. So some positive regression,

1237
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 3: but there is some uncertainty.

1238
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:06,600
Speaker 4: There is there is the.

1239
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:12,120
Speaker 3: Chance that you know, this offense is not much different

1240
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:14,200
Speaker 3: from last year in terms of the overall volume we

1241
00:59:14,240 --> 00:59:16,000
Speaker 3: do it kind I think we both all expect the

1242
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 3: little step up in the tempo and the pass attempts,

1243
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:21,600
Speaker 3: but they weren't an extremely high volume offense in any

1244
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:23,720
Speaker 3: aspect last year. They were kind of league average. So

1245
00:59:24,480 --> 00:59:27,000
Speaker 3: just all the uncertainty, I'm going with the right right there,

1246
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 3: round seventy three.

1247
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I probably bet the under on this as well.

1248
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:35,560
Speaker 4: Just they just run a ton of four wide receiver formations.

1249
00:59:35,600 --> 00:59:37,480
Speaker 4: They do like to spread it out, so I'm I'm

1250
00:59:37,520 --> 00:59:39,680
Speaker 4: curious to see a guy like Hopkins how much of

1251
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 4: this target share he can dominate. But yeah, I'm a

1252
00:59:42,240 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 4: little bit skeptical when it comes to Hopkins, especially drafting

1253
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:47,320
Speaker 4: him as a top five wide receiver. I'm I'm pretty

1254
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:50,680
Speaker 4: much passing on him, especially with the lack of offseason

1255
00:59:50,720 --> 00:59:53,240
Speaker 4: He's not gonna have really much time to build that

1256
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:56,120
Speaker 4: chemistry with Keler Murray, so I think he could open

1257
00:59:56,200 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 4: up things for a guy like Christian Kirk who's entering

1258
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 4: year three, which is typically a good breakout season for

1259
01:00:01,560 --> 01:00:04,040
Speaker 4: wide receiver. So I think he's gonna make the offense

1260
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:06,240
Speaker 4: itself better, but I'm not sure it's going to come

1261
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:09,960
Speaker 4: in via yards per game. So yeah, I think we're

1262
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 4: all right there. Around seventy four and a half yards

1263
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:15,040
Speaker 4: per game sounds right to me. All right.

1264
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 2: That is the preview for our NFC player projections, which

1265
01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 2: you will soon be able to access and our customizable

1266
01:00:22,280 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 2: fantasy football cheat sheet at the Action Network. Next NFL episode,

1267
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 2: we're going to start our position by position deep dive

1268
01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:33,880
Speaker 2: previewing the top twelve fantasy quarterbacks by average draft position.

1269
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:36,160
Speaker 2: You can follow Sean, Chris and Me in the Action

1270
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:39,919
Speaker 2: Network app at the Underscore Oddsmaker Chris Raymond and Matt

1271
01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:42,960
Speaker 2: f the Oracle. Please subscribe to and rate interview the show,

1272
01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 2: and remember you can listen and download on Spotify. See

1273
01:00:46,760 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 2: you again next episode.

1274
01:01:03,760 --> 01:01:04,800
Speaker 4: We're finished talking