1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and 5 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, 6 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I wanted 7 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 1: to talk about debt right now with Dana Peterson, Chief 8 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: Economists the Conference Board. The Conference Board hugely aware of 9 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: the consumer and the business tone that's out there in 10 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: America along that line, and to take it from the 11 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: academics data, are we over debted right now? Are we 12 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: up to our eyeballs in credit debt? 13 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 2: Absolutely? Certainly. 14 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 3: When would look at the consumer credit debt has risen 15 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 3: to where we were pre pandemic, delinquencies are up. When 16 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 3: we look at the sovereign debt in the US, it's 17 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:07,839 Speaker 3: extremely elevated. Interest rates are rising and that's causing debt 18 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 3: service to rise as well. And we're concerned about both 19 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 3: the sovereign situation as well as consumers heading into a 20 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 3: season when they're going to run out of excess savings 21 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 3: and also maybe laden with student debt loaner payments. 22 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 4: Well to that exact point, Dana, we've been talking a 23 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 4: lot about the month of September. I am interested in October, 24 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,279 Speaker 4: when those payments resume after years of being on pause 25 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 4: due to the pandemic. What economic impact is that likely 26 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 4: to have, given how this could be a very large 27 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 4: factor in household budgets. 28 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 3: Well, it's probably going to take several tenths off of 29 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 3: GDP growth in October, and it's going to weigh on 30 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 3: the outlook going forward because certainly, if people were using 31 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 3: credit cards to finance their debt, and they were also 32 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 3: taking that reprieve from student loan payments, when all those 33 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 3: things come doue, they're not going to spend and they're 34 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 3: probably going to start fearing for the economy in general 35 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 3: because their own personal finances will not be as robust 36 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 3: as they were. 37 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 4: Are we starting to see consumer behavior change already in 38 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:13,239 Speaker 4: anticipation of that data. What evidence might you be seeing 39 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 4: of that? 40 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 3: Well, not really. We think consumers are still looking at 41 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 3: the fact that many of them are still working, They're 42 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 3: still spending on services, even though they're saying that the 43 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 3: types of services are going to spend on will be 44 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 3: more towards needs rather than once. But the point is 45 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 3: that they still anticipate that they're going to be spending 46 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 3: and they're not really looking forward to the fact that, yes, 47 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 3: they're going to have higher debts, their balance sheets are 48 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 3: not going to be as healthy, and certainly interest rates 49 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 3: are going to be very elevated in case they have 50 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 3: any emergencies where they might need to finance something. So 51 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 3: I think consumers are not really focused that much on 52 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 3: the future as much as they should be. 53 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: A Dana, you're expert at this. The theme that Jackson 54 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 1: Holme particularly our day was Managing director Gurghava of the 55 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: IMF and with Laguard the ECB, they both brought up fragmentation. 56 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 1: How fragmented is America right now? How disaggregated are we 57 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: in our economics? 58 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, you do have very different responses to 59 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 3: what's going on in the economy. Even when we look 60 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 3: at our own consumer confidence measure, you get different readings 61 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 3: by age and by income, and so we do think 62 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 3: there is quite a bit of fragmentation in the economy 63 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 3: right now. 64 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: Well, the fragmentation that's there I guess we see it 65 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: in the jobs report on Friday. A lot of people 66 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: are waiting for el, say sub one hundred thousand non 67 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: farm payrolls. How disaggregated is that number? I mean, it's 68 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty million for conversation, but as part 69 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: of that one hundred and fifty million flat in their 70 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 1: back any other part confident? 71 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 3: Well, I think it really depends on what industry you're in. Certainly, 72 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,119 Speaker 3: the industries where you have to show up to work 73 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 3: are still hiring. But the industries that were former pandemic 74 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 3: darlings like and finance, even transportation, warehousing, they're seeing job 75 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 3: losses and weakness. And even with the big revisions that 76 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 3: we saw in the payrolls data dating back from March 77 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 3: to twelve months prior, we saw that there were entire 78 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,839 Speaker 3: gains wiped out. And so if you're in those sectors, 79 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 3: you're probably not as a buliant as if you are 80 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 3: in say hotels or restaurants or even healthcare, where there's 81 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 3: still quite a bit of hiring going on. 82 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 4: And finally, Dana, can I ask you about the housing 83 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 4: market and the mortgage rates that people are facing if 84 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 4: they're trying to buy a home or contending with it. 85 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 4: They're thinking about selling the home that they're in that 86 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 4: they have a lower rate on. How is that a 87 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 4: factor in the perception of the economic health of the 88 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 4: country that consumers feel if they're looking at home affordability 89 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 4: that is the worst it's been in decades. Rents that 90 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 4: also are incredibly high. 91 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: Well, it's interesting you actually see bifurcation in the housing market. 92 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 3: Is this seeing home sales or down in the de 93 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 3: and prices are falling year on year because mortgage rates 94 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 3: are so high. Why would you move if you're going 95 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 3: to have a higher mortgage rate than what you have 96 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 3: now after you've probably refinanced a couple of times during 97 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 3: the pandemic. But then with new housing we're starting to 98 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 3: see a little bit of a pickup because you can't 99 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 3: get an existing home. But all in all, bordability is 100 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 3: certainly down because interest rates are so high, and also 101 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 3: in certain markets prices are still rising year on year 102 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 3: because this is very much about location. 103 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,799 Speaker 1: Dana, thank you so much. Dana Peterson the conference board 104 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: with US. 105 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 5: Philo Landa joined US now chief equity strategists of Refederated 106 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 5: her Mace. Phil I'll ask the cool question again, is 107 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 5: the pullback more than I sational setback? 108 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 6: So Julian's a very smart guy. We've been looking for, 109 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 6: let's call it, a ten percent correction in stocks over 110 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 6: the course of the August of ten October period, which 111 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 6: would be seasonal. The question is what does valuation look 112 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 6: like these big technology stocks versus the rest of the market. 113 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 6: In the first you know, seven months of the year, 114 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 6: the tech stocks have dramatically outperformed the rest of the market, 115 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 6: and we felt that there would be sort of a 116 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 6: reversion of the mean during this you know, third quarter period. 117 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 6: You know, ten twelve percent is a reasonable place to start, 118 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 6: and let's see what the valuation looks like once we 119 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 6: get there. 120 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: So I'm coming into labor dam. I'm at the kitchen 121 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: counter at the second home, and I'm trying to reallocate 122 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 1: my portfolio. Am I reallocating with enthusiasm to equities looking 123 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: out three years? Or can I not have a three 124 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: year view because of the jumble of the news slow 125 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 1: right now? 126 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 6: No, if you've got a three year time horizon, Tom, 127 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 6: we're extraordinarily bullish. Our near term call somewhat tactical, is 128 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 6: somewhat defensive. That we've got a three percent overweight to 129 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 6: stocks overall, but our overweights are in domestic value, in 130 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 6: small cap and international. The one area that we've got 131 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 6: sort of a negative bias on is these grow technology names, 132 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 6: which we think got ahead of themselves. As we look 133 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 6: out three years, we will have seen peak inflation, we 134 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 6: will have seen peak FED valuation levels will be more reasonable, 135 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 6: maybe we get a change in leadership in Washington with 136 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 6: better fiscal policy approach. All of that suggests that stocks 137 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 6: three years from now we're going to be in much 138 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 6: better shape. 139 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 4: Okay, So, Philip, you suggest that we'll see the peak 140 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 4: and inflation, we'll see the peak and FED funds at 141 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 4: some point between now and three years from now, can 142 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 4: you get more specific about where that is? If we're 143 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 4: talking about higher for longer, how much longer? Realistically? 144 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 6: So, I think we're looking Kaihlee at about a six 145 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 6: to twelve month timeframe. The inflation has clearly peaked in 146 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 6: our mind last year. The question is the divergence between 147 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 6: the decline in headline inflation versus core inflation. Core inflation 148 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,679 Speaker 6: is coming down at a much slower pace. Federal reserve 149 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 6: in our view, probably has one more quarter point hike 150 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 6: up their sleeves, maybe that November first meeting and then 151 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 6: they go on pause. But pause is going to last 152 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 6: a while. We don't expect them to come back in 153 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 6: and start cutting rates until perhaps this time next year. 154 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 6: Valuation levels, you know, because of the tech stocks were extended, 155 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 6: those valuation levels are coming back. Stocks are down about 156 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 6: six percent over the course of the last month or so. 157 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 6: And then, of course we've got this big election coming 158 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 6: up in November of next year, so it's going to 159 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 6: take a year or so for all of these things 160 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 6: to shake out. But again, using Tom's three year time horizon, 161 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 6: we're pretty excited about what the longer term picture looks like. 162 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 4: How does the longer term view on equities conflate with 163 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 4: what you expect in the bond market, because right now 164 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 4: the bond market frankly looks quite confused. But I wonder 165 00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 4: how much the rate story is actually what is attribute 166 00:08:59,920 --> 00:09:03,559 Speaker 4: to the stagnation in the equity market we have seen no. 167 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 6: A great question and the backup in rates that we've 168 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 6: seen here from three and a quarter to four and 169 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 6: a quarter and benchmark ten's over the last say six 170 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 6: months or so, and that's exactly what our Duration Committee 171 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 6: shaired by R. J. Gallo was looking for. The idea 172 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 6: is that rates are going to peak here, you know, 173 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 6: in this four and a quarter four and a half 174 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 6: percent neighborhood, and looking out over the course of the 175 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 6: next six to twelve months, we're going to see rates 176 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 6: rally back, you know, into that three to three and 177 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 6: a quarter neighborhood. So, you know, it's been painful for 178 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 6: bond investors over the last six months or so. We 179 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 6: think looking out over the course of the next year, 180 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 6: with the potential for slower economic growth, bonds will rally. 181 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: Phill Orlando retail got absolutely slammed last week. Does that 182 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: give you pause on profitable Walmart trading at twenty x 183 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:54,719 Speaker 1: times you know earnings? 184 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 6: Tom It certainly gives us pause because one of the 185 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 6: things we track pretty closely is the performance of the 186 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 6: consumer during Mapril, back to school and Christmas and back 187 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 6: to school season. We're only two months in. We've got 188 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 6: June and July data, but retail sales are only up 189 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,920 Speaker 6: about two point four percent year on year. A year ago, 190 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 6: retail sales are up nine point eight percent over that 191 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 6: period of time. We saw the same situation with Mapril 192 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 6: the March and April Easter sales, we're only up one 193 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 6: point seven percent year on year. We think Christmas sales 194 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 6: are going to be again sort of that low single digit. 195 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 6: So for a number of reasons, the consumer is slowing down. 196 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 6: GDP is seventy percent generated by the consumer, so that's 197 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 6: something we're watching pretty closely. 198 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 5: So do you thinkish some tension here between what we're 199 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 5: pricing in the bond market, particularly the front end, which 200 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 5: is high for longer, and what's developing abroad, specifically in China. 201 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 6: So China has been a disappointment, no question. We've got 202 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 6: a longer term review on China that given the problems 203 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 6: that they're having right now, it is inconceivable to us 204 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 6: that we do not see aggressive fiscal and monetary policy 205 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 6: in China looking out over the next six to twelve 206 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 6: months to try to reverse those fortunes. So we like 207 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 6: international in part because we're expecting the Chinese government is 208 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 6: going to step in here and try to turn things 209 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 6: around and improve the economic fortunes of China over the 210 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 6: next year. 211 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 5: Now happens yet in a big way, that's for sure, Phil, 212 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 5: Thank you sir, that's for sure. Phil Orlando, Federated Hermei's 213 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 5: range of efforts from Chinese policy makers over the weekend. 214 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: It is the end of the summer. We are all recalibrating. 215 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,839 Speaker 1: Children are being lectured on summer reading and getting ready 216 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: for school. Part of that across this nation is to 217 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: get the tone of America. No one does that better 218 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: than Gallup, Venerable Gallup, their editor in chief, Mohammad Units 219 00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: has just been exquisite on the big picture of America. 220 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 1: Mohammed an open question. What is the mood of America 221 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: as we enter September? 222 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 7: Not good on the several fronts. Not good. If you 223 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 7: are a federal government official. 224 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 2: No matter what institution you're leading, right now, you're facing 225 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:17,439 Speaker 2: a record. 226 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 7: Low in confidence. And that even applies to the Supreme 227 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 7: Court and the military. 228 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 2: But politically speaking, guys, what we see is really the 229 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 2: Biden administration struggling to get Americans behind what they're doing 230 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,319 Speaker 2: with the economy. Big effort the past couple of weeks, 231 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 2: you guys covered it. But right now President Biden has 232 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 2: sixty plus percent of people who disapprove of the way 233 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 2: he's handling this economy. So as people go back to 234 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 2: school and as confidence at higher institutions is. 235 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,199 Speaker 7: Also at a record low. People have the economy on 236 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 7: their mind this fall. 237 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:56,719 Speaker 1: Does President Trump own the Republican Party or is there 238 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,200 Speaker 1: a party out there of our collective memory. 239 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 7: Right now, if you follow the numbers he does. 240 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,559 Speaker 2: Nobody is even close to giving him any kind of 241 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 2: a challenge in terms of favorable ratings. 242 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 7: That being said, his favorable rating is not high. It's 243 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 7: forty one. It's the same as President Biden's. 244 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 2: And again we're going to see an election where Americans 245 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 2: for the most part, are choosing between options they're not 246 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 2: thrilled about unless somebody knew and miraculous jumps in the ring, 247 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 2: and it doesn't look like that's going. 248 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 7: To happen right now. 249 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 4: Mohammed, to return to the subject of President Biden and 250 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 4: his approval ratings, and as you know, they remain low. 251 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 4: On the economy. You have a graphic in your polling 252 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:40,439 Speaker 4: that just shows that even over the course of the 253 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 4: last year in change, as we have seen inflation continually 254 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 4: going down, the line almost moves sideways. He's not getting 255 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 4: any credit for things improving well. The greater credit come 256 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 4: potentially on the downside in the form of blame for 257 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 4: any further deterioration. We see from here. 258 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 7: Yeah. 259 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 2: I mean, look, presidents either do a great job taking 260 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 2: credit for the economy or they do a horrible job 261 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 2: and they get blamed for anything that's going wrong. I 262 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 2: think right now the Biden folks are in that ladder category. 263 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 2: In contrast, of course, President Trump was doing a pretty 264 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 2: good job taking credit for a booming economy before COVID. 265 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 2: Those dynamics are probably not going to change, Kayley, I 266 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 2: don't see President Biden suddenly convincing the public that he's 267 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 2: doing great. His basis supporting him. Support among Democrats was 268 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 2: a little bit lower. It's back up to about eighty one. 269 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 2: So he's really got who he's got historically speaking. To 270 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 2: really be an incumbent that has a chance, you've got 271 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 2: to hit the fifty percent plus mark. 272 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 7: And the big debate in the polling world these. 273 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 2: Days is is that a dynamic of the past and 274 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 2: are we moving into a different era right now? 275 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 7: Neither Biden nor Trump are even close to fifty. 276 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 4: Okay, So on the subject of Trump, I was mentioning earlier, Mohammad, 277 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 4: we have this hearing in the Washington case. There's a 278 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 4: hearing in Georgia as well. Today when we're going to 279 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 4: be talking about a trial that could fall in the 280 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 4: middle of primary season. We understood from reporting over the 281 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 4: w that all the fourth indictment of the president, his 282 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 4: arrest and mugshot in Georgia, seems to have accomplished for 283 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 4: him at least at this point is raising a bunch 284 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 4: of money seven million dollars four point two I believe 285 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 4: on Friday alone. Do you have any reason to expect 286 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 4: that he will start to see a deterioration in his 287 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 4: attractiveness to his base as these legal challenges just keep mounting. 288 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 7: I don't, And here's why. 289 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 2: We did a recent analysis looking at the past twenty 290 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 2: years of the issues Democrats and Republicans have diverged the most. 291 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 2: On the number one issue, Kayley, has been the size 292 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 2: of the federal government, a fifty point gap between Republicans 293 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 2: and Democrats. And you'll notice that President Trump is framing 294 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 2: his entire defense essentially based on an overreach of government 295 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: that's stifling his right to free speech, his right to. 296 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 7: Challenge the election, etc. 297 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 2: The more that he does that, the more that he's 298 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 2: driving right into the narrative that his base wants to 299 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 2: hear most of all, So before those reasons I really 300 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 2: don't see it harming him much. 301 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 1: Mohammed, which state is your galap guide state towards November 302 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 1: of next year? Is there one state where you wake 303 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: up and say, pay attention to Ohio or pay attention 304 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: to Georgia? I mean, which is a state that you study? 305 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 7: There are none that we study, really, Tom. 306 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 2: What we do is try to understand the national mood 307 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 2: and the national average. Now, of course swing states are key, 308 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 2: but really every cycle, in the last three to four cycles, 309 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 2: there have been different key swing states. It's really early, 310 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 2: I think right now. Depending maybe when we have a 311 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 2: one person running for the Republican Party, you point to 312 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 2: a state if that person is connected to it. 313 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 7: But it's not just going to be a one state 314 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 7: game this year. 315 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 4: Finally, Mohammed, when I look at your breakdown of the 316 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 4: different approval or situations and the approval for the president, 317 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 4: I noticed that his highest approval rating is on the 318 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 4: situation in Ukraine. As we had on the debate stage, 319 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 4: candidates calling into question last week the idea that the 320 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 4: US should continue to provide funding. Members of Congress also 321 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 4: making a lot of noise about the US not aiding 322 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 4: Ukraine in the same way we have for the last 323 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 4: eighteen months. Where are the American people on this issue? 324 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:08,680 Speaker 2: The American people are mostly behind Ukraine, but Republicans are 325 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 2: split on Ukraine. And this is a really persistent split 326 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 2: that's consistent now since the beginning of the war. You 327 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 2: have half of Republicans that very much are the opinion 328 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 2: that we should not be doing so much. But there's 329 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 2: another half of the Republicans around forty five percent that 330 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 2: really want to see Ukraine fight through and win back 331 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 2: all the territory they've lost. 332 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: Mom in ten seconds, what's been the Taylor Swift impact 333 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 1: across America? Is it permanent? 334 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 7: I think? I'm from Los Angeles, I think so. 335 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 2: I think the future of America has more to do 336 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: with entertainment than anything. 337 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 1: Right there we go, mahamm thanks for that final point. 338 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 1: Appreciate it. Annaeshton joins us this morning, and what do 339 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 1: you think of the Chinese coverage? It's a cottage industry 340 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: right now for people like you, there's like five articles 341 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: a day. I feel like I have to read What 342 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 1: am I missing? What do you see in your China analysis? 343 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 1: That's not in the zeitgeist right now? 344 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 8: So, you know, I wish there were only five articles 345 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 8: a day that I had to read, because it definitely 346 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 8: has become something of a cottage industry. I think that 347 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,879 Speaker 8: the interesting thing that's happening right now really is this 348 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 8: statunt that the Biden administration and Chinese leadership have been 349 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:36,679 Speaker 8: pursuing for the entirety of the summer. And I know 350 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 8: that that's not new, and it is something that people 351 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 8: have had every reason to see, but I think you 352 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 8: know the fact that it's being carried out by the 353 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 8: Biden administration at this time when we're headed into a 354 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 8: presidential election year, and I really had expected a couple 355 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 8: of years ago that by now there would be nothing 356 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,439 Speaker 8: but a competition to be the most hawkish on China. 357 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 8: It's very interesting to see the Biden administration deciding that 358 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 8: stability is the course it wants to. 359 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 5: Chart, and this way key for Secretary Ramondo. What would 360 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 5: you expect from four days and meetings from the COMMAS Secretary? 361 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 8: I think that this is the most important visit we've 362 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,879 Speaker 8: had so far from a member of the administration because 363 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 8: she oversees export controls, and export controls are the things, 364 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 8: among others, but a mainstay of the tech policies that 365 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 8: the United States has rolled out in recent years that 366 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 8: China is most bothered by. Feels that this is an 367 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 8: effort to contain their technological advancement and even likely to 368 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:51,199 Speaker 8: undermine their economic prosperity. So they're pretty upset about the 369 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 8: export controls and about things like the Executive Order on 370 00:19:55,280 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 8: outbound investment that also constrains US abilities to invest certain 371 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 8: sectors in China, including AI, quantum and semiconductor chips. And 372 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 8: now they're going to be with the woman who is 373 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 8: overseeing all of that. She's already sat on the ground 374 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 8: that national security concerns are non negotiable, but emphasized that 375 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 8: that's just one percent of the US economy, And she's 376 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 8: really pushed for a more robust and more stable commercial relationship, 377 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 8: and she's gotten some receptivity from her counterparts. 378 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, we've heard that they're going to be talking. There's 379 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 4: going to be an export group meeting tomorrow on August 380 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 4: twenty ninth. To your point, Anna, we've heard from her 381 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 4: and continuously from administration officials that this is about protecting 382 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 4: national security interests. It is not about holding China back economically. 383 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 4: But can you really have one without the other? Isn't 384 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,640 Speaker 4: protecting national security interests to at least a certain degree, 385 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 4: going to hit China economically by default. 386 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 8: Yes, by default, it absolutely will, Kaylee. And you know, 387 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 8: the reality is that these export controls, starting last October, 388 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 8: with the ones that Jake Sullivan announced, they're really quite restrictive. 389 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 8: They don't just prevent China from buying things that are 390 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,880 Speaker 8: state of the art. They prevent China from buying anything 391 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 8: in the future that is smaller than what these restrictions 392 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 8: have set down, and smaller being more state of the art. 393 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 8: So they're kind of trying to hold China at a 394 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 8: certain place in its technological development. 395 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,719 Speaker 1: And all of this is about fancy technology stuff. But 396 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 1: the fact is in my house still like eighty percent 397 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 1: of the garbage that comes in the door in cardboard 398 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,919 Speaker 1: boxes says made in China. Has there been any lessening 399 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: of all the stuff we buy that's made in China. 400 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: It's not going to be in a balloon over Wyoming. 401 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 8: This is an interesting question because of the recent numbers. 402 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 8: So the numbers for all of twenty twenty two showed 403 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 8: that trade was an all time high over seven billion dollars, 404 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 8: but recent numbers have indicated that experts from China and 405 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 8: to the United States specifically have dropped by twenty five 406 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,679 Speaker 8: percent so far this year, the biggest drop in a 407 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:14,440 Speaker 8: very long time. 408 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:18,159 Speaker 1: What was that? But this is important? What was the 409 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: drop due to? Was it electric vehicles from China? Or 410 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: was it you know, the coasters? We just had to 411 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 1: get coasters, John for the deck, you know the tonic 412 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: the got and what caused that drop in Chinese exports 413 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:35,880 Speaker 1: to America. 414 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 8: So there's there's lots of speculation about that, but I 415 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 8: think that it really is likely that it is a 416 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:47,400 Speaker 8: sign of US companies beginning to diversify their supply chains 417 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 8: and so more of the inputs for the goods that 418 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 8: they are bringing into the United States are made in 419 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 8: places other than China. That doesn't mean that they're leaving China. 420 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,399 Speaker 8: It just means that we're the for the business that 421 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 8: involves manufacturing to export to the United States, more and 422 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 8: more of them are doing that elsewhere. 423 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 5: So ana is it going through India, Vietnam? Why do 424 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:09,400 Speaker 5: we use seeing that show up. 425 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:14,119 Speaker 8: A combination of those and other places. But you know 426 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 8: the reality is that there are no markets that can 427 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,719 Speaker 8: just absorb all of the export or all of the 428 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,479 Speaker 8: manufacturing that is done in China for the US market. 429 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 8: So at a certain point, probably in the near future, 430 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 8: these other markets are gonna take capacity, and then it'll 431 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 8: be much more difficult and more expensive for companies to figure. 432 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 5: Out where to go and out of interest, Who do 433 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 5: you think is got the best strategy in how to 434 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 5: handle that to move your manufacturing base out of China 435 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 5: without isolating the Chinese consumer. 436 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 8: Well, I'm gonna I'm gonna avoid naming any company, but 437 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 8: I think I think the strategies that are really focused 438 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 8: on in China for China and ramping up the manufacturing 439 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,239 Speaker 8: and development that's going on for the Chinese market are 440 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 8: good strategy. They don't check every box for the Chinese 441 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 8: government or in terms of risk management, but they check 442 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 8: the most boxes. 443 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,920 Speaker 5: What a change, Anna Ashton of you Wright, you great, Kana, 444 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:12,360 Speaker 5: Thank you. 445 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and 446 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday 447 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,639 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern im Bloomberg dot Com, the 448 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 449 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 1: can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on 450 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:37,399 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and 451 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg