Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then
Speaker 2: Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: One of the most read stories on the Bloomberg Terminal
Speaker 3: in the last several hours pertains to what has happened
Speaker 3: today in the Middle East, specifically in Lebanon, where officials
Speaker 3: are now accusing Israel of orchestrating an attack that has
Speaker 3: killed several people and injured nearly three thousand others across
Speaker 3: the country when their pagers exploded. Joe, this does appear
Speaker 3: to be a highly sophisticated attackle though Israel itself has not,
Speaker 3: of course claimed credit for this. This is just others
Speaker 3: that are blaming it on Israel. But around fifteen hundred
Speaker 3: members of Hezbola were wounded in these blasts, which of
Speaker 3: course happened just south of the capital of Beirut.
Speaker 4: We spent so much time talking with experts about methods
Speaker 4: strategies that Israel might use if there were a concerted
Speaker 4: retaliatory strike against hesblah or the opening of a new front.
Speaker 4: We've heard about cruise missiles, drones, maybe even boots on
Speaker 4: the ground, never pagers, Kayleie. This is a story that
Speaker 4: you wouldn't believe if you saw it in a movie.
Speaker 4: And we're still getting a sense of the scale of
Speaker 4: this attack.
Speaker 3: Yeah, again, thousands injured according to authorities in Lebanon. And
Speaker 3: of course the use of pagers. It's very nature. This
Speaker 3: is older technology, right, They aren't using things like cell phones,
Speaker 3: things that could be easily attractable or more hacked into.
Speaker 3: So the way in which this potentially all happened is
Speaker 3: a question that we'll all have to wait the answer to,
Speaker 3: as we'll have to await whether or not this is
Speaker 3: something that could be seen as escalatory by Hesbela or
Speaker 3: by of course Iran, Hesbela being a proxy of Iran.
Speaker 3: So we want to get some answers to our questions.
Speaker 3: Now in turn to Natasha Hall. She's a senior fellow
Speaker 3: with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic
Speaker 3: International Studies and is joining us once more here on
Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Natasha, welcome back. This is kind
Speaker 3: of a have do you read? You have to read
Speaker 3: about it and see the video to even believe this
Speaker 3: really happened. But what do you think about the nature
Speaker 3: of these attacks on Hesbla and whether or not this
Speaker 3: is the kind of thing that would cause Hesbula to
Speaker 3: strike back.
Speaker 5: Well, this is certainly the kind of thing that would
Speaker 5: cause Hesbula to strike back. I mean, this was quite unprecedented.
Speaker 5: We're talking about about twenty eight hundred injuries right now,
Speaker 5: two hundred critically wounded. We have blasts as far as Syria,
Speaker 5: and even the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was injured. So
Speaker 5: it certainly hearkens the notion that there might be some
Speaker 5: kind of esclatory attack for this quite embarrassing, to be honest,
Speaker 5: attack on Hesbala operatives throughout the country, in Lebanon and
Speaker 5: in Syria. It's unprecedented. I don't think we've ever seen
Speaker 5: anything quite like this before. And as you mentioned, pagers
Speaker 5: are actually an old technology that has Bolah operatives were
Speaker 5: encouraged to use because they are less hackable, less traceable,
Speaker 5: and so you know, we're all wondering sort of how
Speaker 5: Israel could have gotten into these pagers if they had
Speaker 5: infiltrated the supply chain, which would suggest even a kind
Speaker 5: of psychological operation on Hazbolah where they will be highly
Speaker 5: suspicious of partners and members within their communities.
Speaker 6: Pretty remarkable.
Speaker 4: Levenon's telecom minister Johnny Korm suggesting the batteries on these
Speaker 4: devices likely overheated. He's calling it foul play, and Lebanon
Speaker 4: was quick to blame Israel, as we've been reporting. Would
Speaker 4: we expect Israel to take credit if that's in fact true?
Speaker 5: I doubt Israel will take credit. But we do know
Speaker 5: that just yesterday they had accused Hasbullah potentially assassinating high
Speaker 5: ranking Israeli military official, so this could have potentially been
Speaker 5: retaliation for that.
Speaker 7: But in all likelihood, this was a long.
Speaker 5: Way of planning something these devices. This would have taken
Speaker 5: a great deal of intelligence work for months in advance.
Speaker 3: Well, and it has been months now, Natasha, that we've
Speaker 3: been graced waiting to see if Hesbela was going to
Speaker 3: try to strike Israel directly or Ron for that matter,
Speaker 3: for the assassination of Hesbelah commander earlier this summer, and
Speaker 3: then of course the subsequent killing of Hamas's former political
Speaker 3: leader in Tehran just days later. Is this likely to
Speaker 3: bring forward the timeline with which Iran or Hesbelah would
Speaker 3: consider that retaliatory strike actually taking shape, because to this
Speaker 3: point they've kept the world waiting.
Speaker 5: It is possible, although I mean I think Hebelah's significantly
Speaker 5: weakened right now. I mean there are hundreds in hospitals
Speaker 5: right now, so physically and psychologically they've been weakened as well.
Speaker 5: That said, again, this is quite an embarrassing attack on Hezbalah,
Speaker 5: and so they would be pushed, I think, to do
Speaker 5: something in response. What I would say is the most
Speaker 5: immediate fear for probably US officials is that they were
Speaker 5: struggling to get a deal on the table between Lebanon
Speaker 5: and Israel to really demilitarize the border area there in
Speaker 5: return for some kind of economic package for Lebanon, which
Speaker 5: has been struggling for a long time, and I doubt
Speaker 5: that deal is going anywhere anytime soon.
Speaker 4: There's just a headline crossing the terminal now from Ason's
Speaker 4: France Press that you mentioned that Iron's ambassador to Lebanon
Speaker 4: was wounded in the pager explosion. This all happens as
Speaker 4: Anthony Blinken sets off on his tenth journey to the
Speaker 4: region since October seventh, he's going to be in Cairo,
Speaker 4: we understand, and as Israel sends the message to almost
Speaker 4: Hochstein representing the Biden administration that there is only a
Speaker 4: military solution to the north.
Speaker 6: Should Blincoln be going to Israel on this trip? So far,
Speaker 6: he's not scheduled too.
Speaker 7: So far, he is not scheduled too.
Speaker 5: And it's a good point that you make about Almos Hawkstein,
Speaker 5: who just twenty four hours ago was warning both Israel
Speaker 5: and Lebanon not to escalate the situation into a wider war.
Speaker 5: B Lincoln is scheduled to meet with primarily Egyptian and
Speaker 5: Klatari officials to get a new deal on the table
Speaker 5: to present to Hemes and Israel. But the administration is
Speaker 5: being very quiet about these talks now. They've sort of
Speaker 5: shifted strategies from being very very public a couple of
Speaker 5: months ago about a potential ceasefire deal, and that tells
Speaker 5: me that they are, you know, sort of not even
Speaker 5: cautiously optimistic, but they are hoping to be able to
Speaker 5: move forward on some kind of ceasefire deal, but it
Speaker 5: doesn't seem to be in the offing at the moment.
Speaker 3: So, in other words, Natasha, the longer this takes, which
Speaker 3: it's been months and months and months now, the less
Speaker 3: likely it is that it ultimately comes to fruition. I
Speaker 3: just wonder, at what point, with a presidential election in
Speaker 3: the US forty nine days away, they just say, all right, well,
Speaker 3: this administration has given it their best shot, but it's
Speaker 3: going to be up to the next president.
Speaker 5: Now. I think that's what netnya who's calculus is exactly,
Speaker 5: and I think it's been his calculus not just now,
Speaker 5: but maybe even a couple of months or three months ago,
Speaker 5: essentially waiting for the next US administration. It's no surprise
Speaker 5: to anyone that Netanya, who traditionally, at least in the
Speaker 5: past decade, has been supporting Republican presidential nominees and likely
Speaker 5: doesn't want to give Kamala Harris a win prior to
Speaker 5: the election.
Speaker 7: And he also has his.
Speaker 5: Own political domestic political issues to deal with, So as
Speaker 5: much as he can push this out, probably the better
Speaker 5: for him.
Speaker 4: To what extent is our election, if at all here
Speaker 4: in the US playing into these negotiations. There's obviously a
Speaker 4: desire by some, including Benjamin Nettie, who I think, to
Speaker 4: work with Donald Trump, and there are still some questions
Speaker 4: about the approach that Kamala Harris might take if she
Speaker 4: wins the White House.
Speaker 6: How do you see that dynamic?
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's exactly my point.
Speaker 5: I think that Prime Minister Nanya, who does not want
Speaker 5: to give a Democratic nominee the win and would probably
Speaker 5: prefer a President Trump and giving them a ceasefires is
Speaker 5: a win for this administration, but it's also a loss
Speaker 5: for him in the immediate term, and so I think
Speaker 5: he's going to continue to try to push this out
Speaker 5: as much as he possibly can, which is one of
Speaker 5: the reasons. Frankly, the administration was prioritizing this Lebanon Israel deal,
Speaker 5: but now that also seems to be in critical condition
Speaker 5: as well well.
Speaker 3: And as we consider the different relationships here Lebanon and Israel,
Speaker 3: obviously Hamas and Israel, and the ongoing ceasefire negotiations and
Speaker 3: Aron itself, it raises the question of the other countries
Speaker 3: in the Middle East. Joe made the point here that
Speaker 3: Anthony blink In the Secretary of State is specifically not
Speaker 3: going to Israel on this strip. He's instead going to Egypt,
Speaker 3: one of the mediators along with Cutter. How should we
Speaker 3: be thinking about the evolution of their roles here if
Speaker 3: the US is in question because of the election and
Speaker 3: the knowledge that the next president will not be Joe Biden.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's a great question. Actually.
Speaker 5: I mean, Egypt is being heavily or rewarded for its
Speaker 5: active diplomacy. It's going to have to be instrumental in
Speaker 5: any kind of peace agreement or cease fire deal as
Speaker 5: one of the sticking points is the Philadelphi Corridor, which
Speaker 5: is along the border of the Gaza Strip and Egypt.
Speaker 5: And the administration has also said that it will unlock
Speaker 5: a major aid deal to Egypt that it had been
Speaker 5: blocking because of human rights abuses. So Egypt is certainly,
Speaker 5: you know, become more of a priority as these negotiations
Speaker 5: have gone on, in recognition that they will be very,
Speaker 5: very very important moving forward.
Speaker 4: I have to ask you about what's happening elsewhere in
Speaker 4: the region with regard to Iraq. And I bring this
Speaker 4: up today because the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al
Speaker 4: Sadani sat down with Bloomberg TV and had a message
Speaker 4: to send that it's time for American soldiers to leave,
Speaker 4: remembering there are twenty five hundred left who were put
Speaker 4: there to fight ISIS. Iraq is a different place now
Speaker 4: than it was obviously at the end of major combat
Speaker 4: operations and in twenty fourteen, when the fight against ISIS happened.
Speaker 4: How should the US receive that message from Iraq.
Speaker 5: We've been hearing this message for years now, and typically
Speaker 5: those who are close to Iran, the prime ministers that
Speaker 5: are close to Iran, reiterate this message over and over again.
Speaker 5: But what they say publicly and what they say privately
Speaker 5: tends to be different, and oftentime prime ministers do actually
Speaker 5: want US forces to stay for for stability reasons. That said,
Speaker 5: obviously the pressure is accelerating to get US forces out
Speaker 5: of Iraq and even out of Syria. But I do
Speaker 5: think that there are security obstacles to that, as we've
Speaker 5: seen in the past few months with Iranian proxy forces
Speaker 5: really upping the ante in both Syria and Iraq, and
Speaker 5: we also have ISIS ex exponentially increasing their attacks in
Speaker 5: Syria compared to twenty twenty three. So the threat is
Speaker 5: not gone, but the pressure remains, of course from Sudani
Speaker 5: for US forces to withdraw.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the threat is not gone. Natasha Hall, It's great
Speaker 4: to see you again. Antasha, Thank you for your time,
Speaker 4: Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program Center for Strategic
Speaker 4: and International Studies.
Speaker 6: Here on Balance of Power.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay with the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon
Speaker 2: Alexa from our flagship New York station, Jo Just Say
Speaker 2: Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Here in Washington, where, of course, we're continuing to assess
Speaker 3: the fallout from a second attempted assassination against former President
Speaker 3: Donald Trump, this one, of course, as the last one
Speaker 3: was from back in July unsuccessful. Donald Trump on Sunday
Speaker 3: escaped unscathed with the help of his Secret Service detail,
Speaker 3: who were able to thwart the would be shooter before
Speaker 3: he ever even got the chance to fire off a shot. Still, though, Joe,
Speaker 3: as we've been discussing for the last forty eight hours,
Speaker 3: it raises questions about the Secret Service and whether it
Speaker 3: needs more from Congress in terms of actual financial resources
Speaker 3: being deployed to it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's true, and you mentioned earlier Speaker Johnson might
Speaker 4: have a different take on this, suggesting that it's more
Speaker 4: about manpower allocation as opposed to overall funding of the agency.
Speaker 4: We're going to talk in a bit with Congressman Bryan's style.
Speaker 4: The Republican from Wisconsin is with us, chair of the
Speaker 4: Admin Committee, who might have a thought on this, But
Speaker 4: a lot of it's going to rest on what we
Speaker 4: learned from this investigation. It's not just Butler now, but
Speaker 4: what happened at the golf course really could lead us
Speaker 4: to a more.
Speaker 6: Definitive position on that.
Speaker 4: People frankly talking without a lot of information at this stage,
Speaker 4: aren't they.
Speaker 3: Well, that's very true, And of course there are many
Speaker 3: investigations happening simultaneously. The FBI, of course, is looking into
Speaker 3: this at the federal level. The state of Florida, according
Speaker 3: to Governor Ron Santis, has an investigation all its own,
Speaker 3: and there still is the Congressional Task Force looking into
Speaker 3: the prior assassination attempt on Donald Trump. That of course
Speaker 3: has requested briefings from the Secret Service this week as well.
Speaker 3: So there are many different layers to this, many parties
Speaker 3: involved as they search for answers.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and we turned to Bloomberg's Michelle jam Risco for
Speaker 4: help on this story. She joins us here at the
Speaker 4: table in Washington. It's good to see you, Michelle. I'm
Speaker 4: not sure we even have a number yet, right the
Speaker 4: White House has pledged to provide whatever resources are necessary.
Speaker 4: We have since learned that Donald Trump had the full
Speaker 4: compliment when he was at the golf course and going
Speaker 4: about his business on Sunday. That was following the president's
Speaker 4: command after Butler. But outside of an increase of some sort,
Speaker 4: how do we even arrive at a number or does
Speaker 4: this involve a reorganization of the agency.
Speaker 1: Well, I think that the numbers were a little bit
Speaker 1: distant from I mean, you're right, we haven't gotten down
Speaker 1: to that level of deep detail in this debate. I
Speaker 1: think right now we're just assessing probably three different active
Speaker 1: debates here.
Speaker 8: One is how did this happen? What was the motive?
Speaker 9: Here?
Speaker 1: Kind of fade the political rhetoric around who's responsible for
Speaker 1: inflaming these sorts of characters. But luckily in this case,
Speaker 1: the suspect is still alive. It's something that maybe authorities
Speaker 1: can glean some information of that will help inform how
Speaker 1: they can prevent.
Speaker 7: A further attack.
Speaker 1: So you have the motive debate going on, but then
Speaker 1: you have, of course the resources debate and should they
Speaker 1: be lauded, should the Secret Service be lauded for preventing
Speaker 1: this attack, or is this something that needs to focus
Speaker 1: on needs more improvement, which seems to be where both
Speaker 1: parties are at right now, with Biden saying yes, I
Speaker 1: do think they probably need more personnel and Congress needs
Speaker 1: to supply that. Harris echoing that sentiment, saying political violence
Speaker 1: has no rhetoric, has no place in America, and we
Speaker 1: will ensure the resource, but Trump saying, Okay, where is it?
Speaker 1: I mean we had this just three months ago. I
Speaker 1: need more resources at these events and more security. But
Speaker 1: you're right, I think an open question about how do
Speaker 1: they do that, How do they allocate those resources to
Speaker 1: prevent these sorts of attacks from even getting close to
Speaker 1: being attempts well?
Speaker 3: And how quickly can they make those changes When this
Speaker 3: is someone who is currently running for that's right, president,
Speaker 3: in an election that takes place less than fifty days
Speaker 3: from now. There's only so much time there's actually work with.
Speaker 3: Is he's still actively campaigning, He's going to be in
Speaker 3: Michigan doing a.
Speaker 1: Real test for Congress and getting things going on Washington,
Speaker 1: which is never easy on any topic. But also, yeah,
Speaker 1: you're right. I mean, Trump has shown no enthusiasm to
Speaker 1: relent on his campaign schedule. These big events are what
Speaker 1: he lives for on the campaign trail, and he's saying,
Speaker 1: you know, if I have fifty sixty thousand people on
Speaker 1: my event, regardless of what numbers are appropriate on the
Speaker 1: crowd size, he wants the amount of personnel that will
Speaker 1: ensure his safety the next time around.
Speaker 6: Well, it's back of the swing states.
Speaker 4: As this has figured out, Donald Trump will be in Flint,
Speaker 4: Michigan tonight.
Speaker 6: It looks like a pretty friendly crowd.
Speaker 4: He's got his former press Sixtory, the governor of Arkansas
Speaker 4: doing the questioning, and what's built as a town hall event.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Arkansas governor, Sarah Huckabye Sanders. That's you know,
Speaker 1: he's playing to the crowd that he wants to see.
Speaker 1: But yeah, key state there in Michigan. Republicans hoping to
Speaker 1: make some headway there in a state that Harris seems
Speaker 1: to be in good position as well. But yeah, very tight,
Speaker 1: tight race there. And then later on this evening we'll
Speaker 1: hear from him. He seems very active in the evenings
Speaker 1: these days. It's just you know, keeping us busy late
Speaker 1: at night, but we'll hear another friendly crowd. He's going
Speaker 1: to be on Sean Hannity's show and Fox.
Speaker 3: Well, and I wonder if we'll hear the similar refrains
Speaker 3: from him that we've heard in the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 3: And frankly, it appeared first on that debate stage against
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, this notion that it's her in Biden and
Speaker 3: their rhetoric that is to blame for the attempts on
Speaker 3: his life. He's describing it as leftist, communist right rhetoric,
Speaker 3: these ideas that he's a threat to democracy. Should we
Speaker 3: expect the Harris campaign is going to make some adjusts
Speaker 3: because of those accusations.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think they're going to continue to go
Speaker 1: with what they have gone with as an administration, as
Speaker 1: a Biden Harris administration, with the line that political violence
Speaker 1: has no place in America. I think this sort of
Speaker 1: back and forth is showing the real campaign realities. Of course,
Speaker 1: Trump wants to energize his base with this talk of oh,
Speaker 1: I will never surrender and look at what they're doing
Speaker 1: to me. At the same time, as you know, if
Speaker 1: you think back to the Biden campaign, all those months ago.
Speaker 1: That was a key theme is Trump is a threat
Speaker 1: to democracy. And I think you've seen a little bit
Speaker 1: less of that emphasis from the Harris campaign, but it's
Speaker 1: still there. It's still you know, she's still talking about
Speaker 1: how he's kind of undermining institutions and parts of democracy
Speaker 1: that she's purporting to institutionalize and keep safe.
Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Michelle Jamrisco, who covers the White House
Speaker 3: and politics for US, thank you so much for joining
Speaker 3: us now. As we've mentioned, we're about to speak with
Speaker 3: someone who knows a great deal about securing political figures,
Speaker 3: especially high profile ones and high profile areas like on
Speaker 3: Capitol Hill. And we turn now to the chair of
Speaker 3: the House Administration Committee and member of its Financial Services Committee,
Speaker 3: Congressman Brian Style, the Republican from Wisconsin, is joining us
Speaker 3: now live from the Canon Rotunda. Welcome back to Bloomberg
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Congressman, it's been a while since we've spoken.
Speaker 3: We would first love to gauge your reaction as we
Speaker 3: were talking with you in Milwaukee after the first assassination
Speaker 3: attempt against Donald Trump, and here we find ourselves again
Speaker 3: after a second one. What is appropriate for your body
Speaker 3: to do in response here.
Speaker 10: Well, first off, thank goodness the president is safe and
Speaker 10: that individual failed in their attempt to injure or kill
Speaker 10: President Trump. What we need to make sure we're doing
Speaker 10: is two things. One that we have the correct culture
Speaker 10: and management at the Secret Service. We have a new
Speaker 10: leader of the Secret Service, but we need to make
Speaker 10: sure that that institution is operating effectively to secure not
Speaker 10: only the President, but not only President Biden, Vice President Harris,
Speaker 10: but also President Trump and JD.
Speaker 9: Vance.
Speaker 10: In the home stretch of this campaign, there's discussion of
Speaker 10: whether or not the Secret Service needs additional resources, and
Speaker 10: really seen evidence that they need additional resources. But I
Speaker 10: do think there's plenty of evidence that we need to
Speaker 10: have a cultural change inside the Secret Service. I think
Speaker 10: all lawmakers are frustrated with the stonewalling that we're getting
Speaker 10: in our investigations to be able to make a determination
Speaker 10: as to what went wrong in Pennsylvania and to gain
Speaker 10: more information as to what just occurred in Florida.
Speaker 4: Congressman, it's good to have you back. Can you speak
Speaker 4: a bit more to that the stonewalling. You've got an
Speaker 4: agency now with an acting director who held a news
Speaker 4: conference yesterday and talked about the level of funding.
Speaker 6: That he would like to see increased. What do you
Speaker 6: need from him.
Speaker 10: Well, there's multiple investigations occurring simultaneously, including a Senate investigation
Speaker 10: as well as a House investigation. My colleagues that are
Speaker 10: leading the House investigation continue to be stonewalled and getting
Speaker 10: critical information is to what played out in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 9: Understanding what went wrong.
Speaker 10: Will allow us to make sure that we know the
Speaker 10: Secret Service both has the resources they need, but also
Speaker 10: the management structure that's necessary to put in place to
Speaker 10: keep all of our political leaders safe.
Speaker 3: Well, as we discuss resources, Congressmen, of course you and
Speaker 3: your colleagues are in a bit of a discussion about
Speaker 3: the brighter resources for the government on Capitol Hill. Right now,
Speaker 3: we are just what two weeks out from a potential
Speaker 3: shutdown if a continuing resolution cannot be passed. What is
Speaker 3: your understanding at the moment of what the plan is
Speaker 3: and whether your speaker actually has the votes.
Speaker 10: Well, ultimately, the Speaker came forward with a plan to
Speaker 10: combine both the Save Act to make sure that US
Speaker 10: elections are for US citizens, to combine that with a
Speaker 10: continuing resolution to extend that into the new year, where
Speaker 10: we can come back and address the reckless spending in Washington.
Speaker 10: I think that's a very reasonable and appropriate play call. Now,
Speaker 10: in a narrowly divided Congress as we have, any vote
Speaker 10: is difficult.
Speaker 9: I hope he brings that to the floor. I think
Speaker 9: it'll pass.
Speaker 10: It'll put the Senate on the clock to both secure
Speaker 10: the election and to make sure that we have government
Speaker 10: funding in place. That said, no one wins, the veteric
Speaker 10: government shuts down, So I think it's imperative that we
Speaker 10: move forward quickly to make sure that we're securing the election,
Speaker 10: but also imperatively keeping our federal government funding open and operational.
Speaker 6: You know, it's interesting.
Speaker 4: We've had a number of critics of this idea, mainly
Speaker 4: Democrats congressmen and putting the Save Act alongside this funding bill,
Speaker 4: because they say that it is a solution in search
Speaker 4: of a problem. It's already illegal for non citizens to
Speaker 4: register to vote. What do you tell them about why
Speaker 4: this is needed?
Speaker 6: Why go through this exercise?
Speaker 10: Well, this is about actually enforcing the law more than
Speaker 10: it is simply identifying that it is already illegal. It's
Speaker 10: already illegal for millions of individuals to cross into the
Speaker 10: United States illegally, so what we need to be doing
Speaker 10: is making sure that we're enforcing the law that's on
Speaker 10: the books. I think it's a reasonable and appropriate action
Speaker 10: at a period of time when countless individuals have come
Speaker 10: into the country illegally, that we're making sure that it's
Speaker 10: only US citizens that are voting in US elections. I
Speaker 10: think it's a straightforward, common sense election integrity provision that
Speaker 10: we should be able to attach to the CR and
Speaker 10: have it passed in the Senate and signed into law
Speaker 10: before this November election.
Speaker 3: Well, Congressman, another way people may be looking at it
Speaker 3: is this is setting the stage for questions around election
Speaker 3: integrity to be brought forward if Donald Trump actually loses
Speaker 3: in November. He was just posting on his true social
Speaker 3: accounts earlier today suggesting that when he wins, those people
Speaker 3: that cheated will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of
Speaker 3: the law. Are you concerned, Congressman, what this could potentially
Speaker 3: be setting the stage for.
Speaker 10: I think we actually have an opportunity to increase Americans'
Speaker 10: confidence in their elections by putting in place key election
Speaker 10: integrity provisions, such as the Save Act. Any individual who
Speaker 10: would engage in a legal behavior should be held accountable
Speaker 10: for that action. I think that's appropriate to make clear.
Speaker 10: That said, I think it's reasonable that we should have
Speaker 10: common sense election integrity provisions to increase Americans' confidence in
Speaker 10: their elections. And so those on the left that push
Speaker 10: back against common sense reforms such as photo ID or
Speaker 10: the Save Act should be asking themselves why wouldn't they
Speaker 10: put in place common sense reforms that actually increase Americans'
Speaker 10: confidence in our elections. Because what the data tells us
Speaker 10: is as we improve americans confidence in their elections, more
Speaker 10: people participate, and more people participating legally in our democracy
Speaker 10: is a good thing.
Speaker 4: We've been dealing with a lot of noise in this campaign, Congressman,
Speaker 4: you don't need me to tell you. The rhetoric has
Speaker 4: been hot and voters' attention being pulled in a lot
Speaker 4: of different directions.
Speaker 6: Right now. JD.
Speaker 4: Vance is in oh Claire, Wisconsin today, is going to
Speaker 4: be talking a little bit later on this afternoon to voters.
Speaker 4: When you clear through the noise, what is the issue
Speaker 4: that's going to help Wisconsin break for one campaign or
Speaker 4: the other voters hit the polls in seven weeks.
Speaker 10: My home state of Wisconsin is the center of the storm.
Speaker 10: Is good to have that attention on the state, But
Speaker 10: what I think we should be focusing in on are
Speaker 10: the biggest policy debates that this country needs to have, Primarily,
Speaker 10: how do we bring costs down so families can afford
Speaker 10: the things that they need, and how do we secure
Speaker 10: the US Mexico border, because the broken border is having
Speaker 10: real and serious consequences in my home state of Wisconsin
Speaker 10: and in states across the country. The more we're having
Speaker 10: a robust conversation on the policy issues in front of us,
Speaker 10: the better we are as a country. As we allow
Speaker 10: the dialogue to turn into other things, it's far less
Speaker 10: productive for our democracy.
Speaker 3: Congressman, as you're there in the capital, of course, you
Speaker 3: are looking at getting a floor vote today on a
Speaker 3: bill you've brought forward protecting Americans' retirement Savings from Politics Act.
Speaker 3: You want to rein in with this bill, sir. Proxy
Speaker 3: advisors why.
Speaker 10: I'm very concerned about the significant role that proxy advisors have.
Speaker 10: The United States has a clear duopoly where about ninety
Speaker 10: seven percent of all proxy advisor services are provided by
Speaker 10: two firms. They're not properly regulated by the Securities in
Speaker 10: Exchange Commission. We saw Chairman Gensler got and remove Chairman
Speaker 10: Clayton's bill on this, I have brought forward legislation that
Speaker 10: says we should not only regulate them, we should make
Speaker 10: sure that Americans understand if these institutions have conflicts of interest.
Speaker 10: I've been concerned that these inte institutions, working with liberal groups,
Speaker 10: have worked to weaponize Americans' retirement accounts. This is an
Speaker 10: opportunity to stand up for good governance, to stand up
Speaker 10: for proper regulation of outside entities, and at the end
Speaker 10: of the day, to make sure we're protecting American retirement
Speaker 10: accounts that have shares being voted on by institutional investors.
Speaker 4: Well, that's important to our audience here at Bloomberg. Congressman,
Speaker 4: do you have co signers? What kind of support do
Speaker 4: you have for this bill?
Speaker 10: We have broad support. We passed it through committee with
Speaker 10: full Republican support. I think we have an opportunity as
Speaker 10: we bring it to the House floor this week to
Speaker 10: pick up Democratic votes. There's no reason that Iss and
Speaker 10: Glass Lewis, which have such a significant impact on the
Speaker 10: voting of shares across the board from American publicly traded companies,
Speaker 10: shouldn't be properly regulated by the securities Exchange Commission, and
Speaker 10: in particular, both of these institutions should have to disclose
Speaker 10: if they have a conflict of interest. That is one
Speaker 10: of my biggest concerns with both of these institutions, who
Speaker 10: are advising countless institutional investors on how to vote, they're
Speaker 10: not currently disclosing their conflicts of interest. The Securitiest Exchange
Speaker 10: Commission should require that, and my bill does.
Speaker 3: That just quickly. Congressman on conflicts of interest, Donald Trump
Speaker 3: last night was out endorsing the project of hit members
Speaker 3: of his family World Liberty Financial getting into the crypto
Speaker 3: business more materially. Do you worry about conflicts of interest
Speaker 3: there if he actually becomes president.
Speaker 9: Oh, he's a private citizen.
Speaker 10: He's allowed to engage in private business activities while he's
Speaker 10: a private citizen. Anybody that's in elected office follows the
Speaker 10: ethics rules of their given office as I would in
Speaker 10: the House, as a senator would, or as a president would.
Speaker 10: What I'm focusing on in my legislation is, in particular,
Speaker 10: making sure that we're regulating appropriately American publicly traded companies
Speaker 10: and we're not allowing individuals to have those conflicts of
Speaker 10: interests that aren't fully disclosed to the American people.
Speaker 6: Congressman, is good to have you back.
Speaker 4: I'm completely out of time twenty five or fifty tomorrow
Speaker 4: by the FED.
Speaker 9: All of the data, and they're led by the data
Speaker 9: to not buy politics.
Speaker 6: There it is ooh, I think I know what you meant.
Speaker 4: Brian Style, the Congressman from Wisconsin, the Republican view on
Speaker 4: a number of issues. It's great to have you back, sir.
Speaker 4: With us on Bloomberg TV and radio. Around this time, Kaylie,
Speaker 4: we're going to be winding up to special coverage.
Speaker 6: Of the FED meeting. Of course, you can always count
Speaker 6: on us.
Speaker 4: We'll have much more with our panel coming up next
Speaker 4: on Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play
Speaker 2: and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
Speaker 2: live on YouTube.
Speaker 3: The campaign trail is everywhere today for the presidential and
Speaker 3: vice presidential nominees for the Republican and Democratic parties. We've
Speaker 3: got them all spread out. Kamala Harris. Just about an
Speaker 3: hour from now, we'll be sitting down in Philadelphia with
Speaker 3: members of the National Association of Black Journalists for an interview,
Speaker 3: of course, following the one that Donald Trump did earlier
Speaker 3: this summer that led to some negative attention surrounding his
Speaker 3: questioning of her racial identity. Meanwhile, Harris is running mate
Speaker 3: Tim Walls is going to be in two swing states today,
Speaker 3: Georgia this morning, then heading to North Carolina, while JD.
Speaker 3: Vance is going to be in Michigan, as will Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: He has a town hall this evening in Flint, Michigan
Speaker 3: and moderated by his former Press secretary and the Governor
Speaker 3: of Arkansas, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and this will be another
Speaker 3: opportunity to hear from him. In the aftermath of the
Speaker 3: second attempt on his life this past week.
Speaker 4: He's not been holding back this time, blaming Democrats, even
Speaker 4: naming Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for their rhetorics spawning
Speaker 4: what he says, bullets flying here. And I suspect that
Speaker 4: that will come up this evening, even though it has
Speaker 4: been confirmed that Joe Biden requested and delivered additional Secret
Speaker 4: Service protection for Donald Trump while he was on the
Speaker 4: golf course on Sunday, We're hearing a lot about double
Speaker 4: standards right now, and this is a real face off,
Speaker 4: a rhetorical I hope it stays stays a rhetorical face
Speaker 4: off between the two campaigns right now, because both are
Speaker 4: saying a lot ad vance With this very long tweet,
Speaker 4: hundreds of words long, calling out Kamala Harris for suggesting
Speaker 4: that Donald Trump would mean the end of democracy.
Speaker 6: He says the gunman acted on those words.
Speaker 4: But of course Donald Trump is frequently called Kamala Harris
Speaker 4: a fascist who would be the end of the country,
Speaker 4: which sounds a lot like that same line.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they both have tried to cast each other as
Speaker 3: the greatest threat to democracy. The question I guess, moving
Speaker 3: forward through the remaining forty nine days of this presidential
Speaker 3: campaign is whether their language and rhetoric might change as
Speaker 3: a result of heightened threats that we clearly see evident
Speaker 3: in multiple attempts on the Republican nominee's life.
Speaker 4: We turned to Rick Davis and Genie Schanzeno for insights here.
Speaker 4: It's not an easy conversation and it's difficult to tell
Speaker 4: where we're going, but it's an important moment here in
Speaker 4: American politics. She is political science professor at Iona University.
Speaker 4: He is partner at stone Court Capital, and Genie, I'll
Speaker 4: start with you because jd Vance has had the last
Speaker 4: salvo here. I guess Donald Trump did last evening in
Speaker 4: his crypto rollout talking about the role that demicocrats have
Speaker 4: played in their rhetoric on the campaign trail. But we
Speaker 4: have to acknowledge both sides here, right, That's right.
Speaker 8: And you know, I wanted to say Happy Constitution Day
Speaker 8: to you guys. It is Constitution Day, and as I'm
Speaker 8: listening to you go off about politics and American politics today,
Speaker 8: it's good to remember that it was September seventeenth that
Speaker 8: they signed the Constitution in Philadelphia, an important federal day
Speaker 8: to remember. But you know, jd Vance has, you know,
Speaker 8: sort of repeated what Donald Trump has been saying on
Speaker 8: truth social I agree that you know this rhetoric, We've
Speaker 8: heard it. It's intensified on both sides. And I think
Speaker 8: one of the stunning things is what a big difference
Speaker 8: this is from what happened after the first shooting attempt
Speaker 8: on Donald Trump, when you know, the Harris campaign took
Speaker 8: some of their ads off of the air. Donald Trump
Speaker 8: talked about having a reawakening and there was much more
Speaker 8: talk about unity. Perhaps it's because we don't see the shot,
Speaker 8: we don't see a video. Perhaps it's because the gunman
Speaker 8: never got a shot off. It's hard to say why.
Speaker 8: Perhaps it's because we're fewer days now until the election,
Speaker 8: but none of that has happened this time both sides.
Speaker 8: The rhetoric has been pretty pretty tough, and it is
Speaker 8: problematic for people who want the option to listen to
Speaker 8: these candidates and to make up their minds about who
Speaker 8: they're going to vote. You want them to tamp it down,
Speaker 8: but we don't see any sign of that when we
Speaker 8: look at what they're saying in these states.
Speaker 3: Well, in Genies, you remind us that it's Constitution Day.
Speaker 3: It also is National voter registration Day, and Rick, as
Speaker 3: we consider those who may be deciding whether or not
Speaker 3: they want to partake in the political democratic process of
Speaker 3: this republic that was formed by the Constitution this time around,
Speaker 3: does the type of language we're seeing from the candidates
Speaker 3: who are their choices reinforce this idea that this is
Speaker 3: a process someone should want to participate in. Who is
Speaker 3: drawn in by this kind of dialogue.
Speaker 11: Well, we've been in a political environment for some time now,
Speaker 11: where activists have sort of taken control of the messages,
Speaker 11: and activists are much more divisive in their rhetoric than
Speaker 11: sort of everyday voters on aligned voters, voters who see
Speaker 11: it as their civic duty to participate in elections, or
Speaker 11: just have a particular point of view that they want
Speaker 11: to see implemented in Congress or the White House. And
Speaker 11: so this kind of activistem inside politics has really been,
Speaker 11: I think a very negative thing, both on the Republican
Speaker 11: side and the Democratic side. I had moments of optimism
Speaker 11: when Oprah Winfrey stands at the Democratic Convention starts talking
Speaker 11: about joy. Well, we've come a long way since that
Speaker 11: convention talking about joy, and I think it would actually
Speaker 11: behoove both campaigns that are pretty much stuck where they
Speaker 11: are for now in trying something different, you know, and
Speaker 11: maybe some uplifting, positive rhetoric about the future of our
Speaker 11: country and the incredible capability that the American people possess
Speaker 11: to create change. Get out of the way of a
Speaker 11: good electorate and let them think about something positive for
Speaker 11: a change rather than the petty rhetoric that we see
Speaker 11: being thrown around today.
Speaker 4: Well, we do appreciate the spirit of that message Rick.
Speaker 4: The fact of the matter is here, Genie. The situation
Speaker 4: in Springfield, Ohio continues to deteriorate. Governor DeWine is sending
Speaker 4: state police into the town today a contingent of thirty
Speaker 4: six troopers. We now count more than thirty bomb threats
Speaker 4: against schools a local university there. As we were discussing earlier,
Speaker 4: Wittenberg had already moved to all remote classes this week
Speaker 4: and has now canceled all home and away athletic events
Speaker 4: this week. Donald Trump says he's going to go to Springfield.
Speaker 4: Shouldkamala Harris as well?
Speaker 8: No, I don't think either one of them should go.
Speaker 8: I think they should listen to the Republican Governor DeWine.
Speaker 8: I think they should listen to them. Mayor. These are
Speaker 8: people who have begged them to tone down the rhetoric
Speaker 8: because as you're just talking about the real life implications
Speaker 8: on people in that town or city, people who work
Speaker 8: their people who live there, it is very disruptive to
Speaker 8: their lives. I mean, you have people who have been
Speaker 8: scared to go outside, who have been scared to go
Speaker 8: around in the city, who feel that they may be
Speaker 8: under aftack. You have threats of violence, and bombings. This
Speaker 8: is no way to live. If we want to have
Speaker 8: a discussion about immigration, and we should, it shouldn't have
Speaker 8: to be on the backs of lies to get attention
Speaker 8: on the issue. And so this is where I think.
Speaker 8: I don't think Kamalahara should go there, and I don't
Speaker 8: think Donald Trump should go. But of course, Joe, I'm
Speaker 8: not sure he's going to listen to me either, So
Speaker 8: I may just be talking into the wind here.
Speaker 3: Well, Genie, as we discuss where Kamala Harris should go,
Speaker 3: I also wonder where you think the Vice president should
Speaker 3: go today. In her conversation with the National Association of
Speaker 3: Black Journalists, it was of course an NABJ conference interview
Speaker 3: that Donald Trump took part in where things got combative
Speaker 3: and he questioned her racial identity, whether she was an
Speaker 3: Indian or Black American, if she was just switching between
Speaker 3: the two as it suited her. She hasn't really wanted
Speaker 3: to engage in that conversation. She did touch on it,
Speaker 3: perhaps a bit more on the debate stage than we've
Speaker 3: seen her do in the weeks since he first said
Speaker 3: those things, But is she going to be able to
Speaker 3: avoid that in this conversation in a similar forum today,
Speaker 3: or does she need to address it head on?
Speaker 8: You know, I think if she's asked, she can address it.
Speaker 8: But to your point, Kaylie, she has really steered away
Speaker 8: from identity politics, and I think in this election and
Speaker 8: in this election environment, she should focus on issues that
Speaker 8: matter to people. That is economic security, that is their safety,
Speaker 8: that is jobs, that is inflation. You know, you've been
Speaker 8: talking a lot obviously about what's going to be happening tomorrow.
Speaker 8: The calendar is so important for the Hears campaign. Tomorrow
Speaker 8: can be a very good day for them. And if
Speaker 8: I was her or I was advising her, I would say,
Speaker 8: focus on the economy and talk about what you're going
Speaker 8: to do to address the high cost of living. That
Speaker 8: is the number one concerned people have along with inflation,
Speaker 8: and tomorrow may be a very good day for you
Speaker 8: to underscore the work that the Biden camp or the
Speaker 8: Biden White House has done and what you plan to
Speaker 8: do differently going forward. So I think that's much more
Speaker 8: important than the identity politics. But she may get asked
Speaker 8: to respond, certainly to what Donald Trump said in that
Speaker 8: when he was talking to that group you know a
Speaker 8: few months.
Speaker 4: Ago, with that said Rick Politico is reporting that both
Speaker 4: running mates Tim Walls and JD. Vance will address the
Speaker 4: Business Roundtable this week. Ad Vance has or spokesperson has
Speaker 4: confirmed that'll be Thursday morning. We're waiting to hear about
Speaker 4: the Walls address. This is pretty interesting an important group here.
Speaker 4: Of course we talked earlier when Donald Trump and Joe
Speaker 4: Biden were addressing that group. Of course, Joe Biden sent
Speaker 4: to surrogate. They originally invited Kamala Harris. She's decided to
Speaker 4: send her running mate instead.
Speaker 6: Is that wise?
Speaker 9: You know?
Speaker 11: I mean, you don't want your principal Kamala Harris basically
Speaker 11: doing an opposite speech with a vice presidential running mate
Speaker 11: of Donald Trump. The reality of Donald Trump did this
Speaker 11: and was highly unsuccessful, you know, by all measures from
Speaker 11: the disipans who came out saying that they couldn't really
Speaker 11: even understand what he was talking about. So yeah, no,
Speaker 11: I don't think it's that big a deal. They don't
Speaker 11: really have a constituency. Maybe money, but I'm pretty confident
Speaker 11: that by now both campaigns have mind that that that
Speaker 11: money opportunity within the participants there pretty well. But I
Speaker 11: do think it's very worthy of her time to make
Speaker 11: statements and speeches about the economy. We're we're not home free.
Speaker 11: There's an opportunity, even this week, with the Fed's decision
Speaker 11: on rates, to maybe have some win ater back, and frankly,
Speaker 11: I'd want to be there beforehand, not after the fact,
Speaker 11: talking about how, you know, the economy is improving and
Speaker 11: interest rates have the potential coming down. So I'm actually
Speaker 11: surprised she wouldn't use an opportunity like this to at
Speaker 11: least do something, regardless of whether it's with the members
Speaker 11: of the roundtable or somewhere in a targeted state that
Speaker 11: that obviously has been affected by high inflation.
Speaker 3: All right, Rick Davis Stone Cord Capital Partner, and Jeanie
Speaker 3: shan Z, you know of this Center for the Study
Speaker 3: of the Presidency and Congress. Thank you both so much
Speaker 3: for joining us our Bloomberg Politics contributor signature political panel,
Speaker 3: especially for teasing ahead to tomorrow's big event, the FED decision,
Speaker 3: the only time we could see a rate cut prior
Speaker 3: to the November election.
Speaker 4: I'll be right around this time tomorrow. We're handing things
Speaker 4: over to special coverage. Stay with us a lot more
Speaker 4: ahead on balance of power. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast cans
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
Speaker 2: roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: As we turn our attention to the other big ones
Speaker 4: today in Washington at least, and that's the FOMC. It's
Speaker 4: the start of a two day FED meeting. If you're
Speaker 4: with us here on Bloomberg, you probably know that already.
Speaker 4: You probably also know that this has come down to
Speaker 4: an argument between twenty five and fifty and we're not
Speaker 4: going to know until well a little bit later than
Speaker 4: this time.
Speaker 6: Tomorrow. Of course, we'll have special coverage.
Speaker 4: Of the outcome of this FED meeting, the announcement, the statement,
Speaker 4: the dot plot, and the news conference, and it's something
Speaker 4: that we want to start our conversation with Danny Blanchflower on.
Speaker 4: Here we're going to get to the candidate's economic proposals
Speaker 4: as well, with the help of the tenured professor of
Speaker 4: economics at Dartmouth College, recipient to the Commander of the
Speaker 4: Order of the British Empire, Danny Blanchflower, Welcome back to Bloomberg.
Speaker 4: Are we in the twenty five or fifty camp here, Danny?
Speaker 6: And does it matter?
Speaker 8: Well?
Speaker 12: I don't think it really matters. But I think consensus
Speaker 12: is gradually moving towards fifty. But I think really the
Speaker 12: big issue is what's the signal going forward? What are
Speaker 12: the dot plots look like? Another market's right to be
Speaker 12: basically pricing in not just rate cuts now, but rate
Speaker 12: cuts going forward. And obviously this is sort of happening
Speaker 12: globally because the Bank of England meets this week. Suspicions
Speaker 12: are they'll probably do twenty five, but they might even
Speaker 12: do fifty, and they might be impacted obviously by what
Speaker 12: the Fed does ECP moving in that direction. I mean,
Speaker 12: the global consensus is that the US labor market in
Speaker 12: particular is slowing and you need to get ahead of it.
Speaker 12: And I think that's really where we are. Might bet,
Speaker 12: if I had to really bet, was they'll go with fifty.
Speaker 6: If that's the case, you know what they're going to say.
Speaker 6: Political motivation.
Speaker 4: What do you make of this whole conversation, even though
Speaker 4: seven weeks to the election.
Speaker 12: Well, that's obviously a big part of it. I mean,
Speaker 12: I recall sitting in meetings where we were thinking about
Speaker 12: interest rate changes, and we were thinking about politics and
Speaker 12: and how to be seen to be sort of separate
Speaker 12: from the politics. But I guess in this instance, the
Speaker 12: data is king, and the move to try and get
Speaker 12: ahead of a slowing labor market is important. But obviously
Speaker 12: people are going to say, well, this is a political move.
Speaker 12: I don't think it is basically because of the global
Speaker 12: moves that are going on. But people on both sides say,
Speaker 12: ha ha, look, this is a this is a cut
Speaker 12: to help the administration, to help Kamala Harris. I don't think,
Speaker 12: I mean that will be sent sent a part of
Speaker 12: their conversations, But in the end, I think they'll look
Speaker 12: through that and say, data's king. I think we have
Speaker 12: to go with this. I don't think there's any doubt
Speaker 12: that they'll cut.
Speaker 6: The question is will they do?
Speaker 12: Will they do twenty five or fifty? But if you
Speaker 12: look at the sort of interest rate futures, as they say, markets,
Speaker 12: I think this is the first of quite a lot.
Speaker 6: You know, I'm dying to pull you into the political conversation.
Speaker 6: I actually think of you.
Speaker 4: The debating tax proposals for instance, the lack of acknowledgment
Speaker 4: of our deficit right now. And I thought I would
Speaker 4: just give you a taste here, just to work you
Speaker 4: up a little bit on some of the highlights that
Speaker 4: we've heard just over the past couple of days on
Speaker 4: the campaign trail the last couple of weeks. To be fair,
Speaker 4: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, let.
Speaker 13: It rip, and remember, what I'm going to do is
Speaker 13: something that nobody has ever even thought about doing. No
Speaker 13: tax on tips, sign President.
Speaker 8: We will continue working.
Speaker 7: Taxes on tests for service.
Speaker 13: And I want to cut taxes on Americans while putting
Speaker 13: tariffs on China and foreign countries.
Speaker 6: To bring our jobs back home.
Speaker 8: All the while, he intends to enact what in effect
Speaker 8: is a national.
Speaker 5: Sales tax that would raise prices on middle class families.
Speaker 13: As part of our additional tax cuts, we will end
Speaker 13: all taxes on overtime.
Speaker 9: You know what that means.
Speaker 3: My plan is to give a fifty thousand dollars tax
Speaker 3: deduction to start up small businesses.
Speaker 6: All right.
Speaker 4: I don't know what the next exemption is going to be,
Speaker 4: Danny Blanchflower, but I guess they're going to be more
Speaker 4: in the next seven weeks. No one this is what
Speaker 4: they have in common, is talking really seriously about how
Speaker 4: they're going to pay for it. At what point do
Speaker 4: you start beating your head against the wall.
Speaker 12: Well, rhetorics all very well, it's not just even how
Speaker 12: do you pay for it? But how could you possibly
Speaker 12: implement it? I mean the idea of no tax on tips,
Speaker 12: So maybe that means that firms stop paying you know,
Speaker 12: any amount per hour and just let everything go to tips.
Speaker 12: How do you implement no no tax on overtime? I mean,
Speaker 12: the unions will love that. I've just got a new
Speaker 12: paper out show and they're on average, union workers get
Speaker 12: about five hours a week more than non union workers.
Speaker 12: How do you do that? How do you prevent firms
Speaker 12: suddenly saying okay, well we'll change the work weeks, so
Speaker 12: instead of you doing forty hours plus five overtime, you
Speaker 12: do thirty five hours and ten overtime. So the practicalities
Speaker 12: of how you do this is obviously a complex one,
Speaker 12: and the debate over our tariff's attax has become complicated.
Speaker 12: My old colleague Justin Wolfers has been having a conversation
Speaker 12: with JD. Vance about the price of washing machines and dishwashers.
Speaker 12: I mean, this is this is I guess economics for
Speaker 12: the for the election, and how you implement it, how
Speaker 12: you pay for it, what you're going to do with
Speaker 12: the deficit, and not details that have really been worked out,
Speaker 12: and an economist like me shivers.
Speaker 6: I pictured you shivering.
Speaker 4: So do we just assume that this is all bluster?
Speaker 4: Should voters pay any attention? Should investors pay any attention?
Speaker 4: You mentioned tariffs. The president could do that on his
Speaker 4: or her own. Tax cuts require Congress.
Speaker 12: Well, the first one. The practicalities of tax cuts will
Speaker 12: obviously depend on the makeup of the House and the
Speaker 12: Senate and what kind of policy you can come through with.
Speaker 12: You're right that the president can implement.
Speaker 8: Tariffs.
Speaker 12: Now it's clear. I mean, there's been a set of
Speaker 12: recent surveys done, As I say, Justin Wolf has has
Speaker 12: been pushing this. I mean, it's quite clear that tariffs
Speaker 12: are basically a tax on consumers, and the consumers will
Speaker 12: pay this, and this will have big inflationary effects and
Speaker 12: so on. So the question is, I mean, is the
Speaker 12: rhetoric going to turn into actually implementable policies. I assume
Speaker 12: the Fed won't be terribly happy to see a big
Speaker 12: jump in the inflation rate, because the response to that
Speaker 12: would be that the FED would then start raising rates,
Speaker 12: and you might see, well if Trump says he's going
Speaker 12: to go to tariff, and he's going to start to
Speaker 12: think about how to prevent the FED compensating for that fact.
Speaker 12: So this doesn't really look like sensible economics. I mean,
Speaker 12: the idea that you could money to set and help
Speaker 12: small businesses set up, well maybe, so how you do
Speaker 12: that remains unclear, and whether you could implement it. I
Speaker 12: mean I have a lot of evidence, particularly for minority
Speaker 12: owned firms that actually there are capital constraints, but especially
Speaker 12: black owned businesses than others. But whether you think giving
Speaker 12: away fifty thousand tax break would have positive I suspect
Speaker 12: it probably would, and it would probably have a particularly
Speaker 12: helpful effect, as I say, on minorities. But no one's
Speaker 12: actually priced this out. I mean, you didn't actually say
Speaker 12: to me that there no tax on tips that's going
Speaker 12: to cost twenty seven billion, right, this one on task
Speaker 12: that's going to cost forty eight billion. We haven't seen
Speaker 12: the thing priced out. So these are sort of economics
Speaker 12: of wishful thinking. We will see, but they need to
Speaker 12: be priced, and we need to think of the effects
Speaker 12: on the deficit. And we'll see if one of these,
Speaker 12: whichever one of the politicians wins, whether these things can
Speaker 12: actually practically be implemented as an economy is slow.
Speaker 4: Well, I know that Mia mcguinnis is from the Committee
Speaker 4: for a Responsible Federal Budget crunch that no taxes on
Speaker 4: tips on its own to cost somewhere between one hundred
Speaker 4: and two hundred billion dollars, which at the moment would
Speaker 4: be defense or a deficit spending rather.
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 4: Danny Blanchflower made it clear in past conversations I would
Speaker 4: fail your class, and I'm getting a sense that the
Speaker 4: candidates for president might also. Danny, it's great to have
Speaker 4: you back from Dartmouth College, straight to your living room
Speaker 4: and your car and the podcast. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 4: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if
Speaker 4: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get
Speaker 4: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday
Speaker 4: from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.