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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then

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Speaker 2: Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: One of the most read stories on the Bloomberg Terminal

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Speaker 3: in the last several hours pertains to what has happened

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Speaker 3: today in the Middle East, specifically in Lebanon, where officials

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Speaker 3: are now accusing Israel of orchestrating an attack that has

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Speaker 3: killed several people and injured nearly three thousand others across

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Speaker 3: the country when their pagers exploded. Joe, this does appear

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Speaker 3: to be a highly sophisticated attackle though Israel itself has not,

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Speaker 3: of course claimed credit for this. This is just others

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Speaker 3: that are blaming it on Israel. But around fifteen hundred

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Speaker 3: members of Hezbola were wounded in these blasts, which of

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Speaker 3: course happened just south of the capital of Beirut.

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Speaker 4: We spent so much time talking with experts about methods

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Speaker 4: strategies that Israel might use if there were a concerted

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Speaker 4: retaliatory strike against hesblah or the opening of a new front.

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Speaker 4: We've heard about cruise missiles, drones, maybe even boots on

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Speaker 4: the ground, never pagers, Kayleie. This is a story that

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Speaker 4: you wouldn't believe if you saw it in a movie.

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Speaker 4: And we're still getting a sense of the scale of

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Speaker 4: this attack.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, again, thousands injured according to authorities in Lebanon. And

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Speaker 3: of course the use of pagers. It's very nature. This

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Speaker 3: is older technology, right, They aren't using things like cell phones,

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Speaker 3: things that could be easily attractable or more hacked into.

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Speaker 3: So the way in which this potentially all happened is

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Speaker 3: a question that we'll all have to wait the answer to,

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Speaker 3: as we'll have to await whether or not this is

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Speaker 3: something that could be seen as escalatory by Hesbela or

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Speaker 3: by of course Iran, Hesbela being a proxy of Iran.

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Speaker 3: So we want to get some answers to our questions.

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Speaker 3: Now in turn to Natasha Hall. She's a senior fellow

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Speaker 3: with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic

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Speaker 3: International Studies and is joining us once more here on

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Natasha, welcome back. This is kind

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Speaker 3: of a have do you read? You have to read

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Speaker 3: about it and see the video to even believe this

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Speaker 3: really happened. But what do you think about the nature

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Speaker 3: of these attacks on Hesbla and whether or not this

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Speaker 3: is the kind of thing that would cause Hesbula to

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Speaker 3: strike back.

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Speaker 5: Well, this is certainly the kind of thing that would

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Speaker 5: cause Hesbula to strike back. I mean, this was quite unprecedented.

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Speaker 5: We're talking about about twenty eight hundred injuries right now,

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Speaker 5: two hundred critically wounded. We have blasts as far as Syria,

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Speaker 5: and even the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was injured. So

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Speaker 5: it certainly hearkens the notion that there might be some

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Speaker 5: kind of esclatory attack for this quite embarrassing, to be honest,

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Speaker 5: attack on Hesbala operatives throughout the country, in Lebanon and

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Speaker 5: in Syria. It's unprecedented. I don't think we've ever seen

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Speaker 5: anything quite like this before. And as you mentioned, pagers

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Speaker 5: are actually an old technology that has Bolah operatives were

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Speaker 5: encouraged to use because they are less hackable, less traceable,

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Speaker 5: and so you know, we're all wondering sort of how

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Speaker 5: Israel could have gotten into these pagers if they had

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Speaker 5: infiltrated the supply chain, which would suggest even a kind

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Speaker 5: of psychological operation on Hazbolah where they will be highly

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Speaker 5: suspicious of partners and members within their communities.

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Speaker 6: Pretty remarkable.

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Speaker 4: Levenon's telecom minister Johnny Korm suggesting the batteries on these

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Speaker 4: devices likely overheated. He's calling it foul play, and Lebanon

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Speaker 4: was quick to blame Israel, as we've been reporting. Would

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Speaker 4: we expect Israel to take credit if that's in fact true?

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Speaker 5: I doubt Israel will take credit. But we do know

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Speaker 5: that just yesterday they had accused Hasbullah potentially assassinating high

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Speaker 5: ranking Israeli military official, so this could have potentially been

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Speaker 5: retaliation for that.

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Speaker 7: But in all likelihood, this was a long.

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Speaker 5: Way of planning something these devices. This would have taken

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Speaker 5: a great deal of intelligence work for months in advance.

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Speaker 3: Well, and it has been months now, Natasha, that we've

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Speaker 3: been graced waiting to see if Hesbela was going to

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Speaker 3: try to strike Israel directly or Ron for that matter,

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Speaker 3: for the assassination of Hesbelah commander earlier this summer, and

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Speaker 3: then of course the subsequent killing of Hamas's former political

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Speaker 3: leader in Tehran just days later. Is this likely to

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Speaker 3: bring forward the timeline with which Iran or Hesbelah would

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Speaker 3: consider that retaliatory strike actually taking shape, because to this

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Speaker 3: point they've kept the world waiting.

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Speaker 5: It is possible, although I mean I think Hebelah's significantly

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Speaker 5: weakened right now. I mean there are hundreds in hospitals

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Speaker 5: right now, so physically and psychologically they've been weakened as well.

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Speaker 5: That said, again, this is quite an embarrassing attack on Hezbalah,

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Speaker 5: and so they would be pushed, I think, to do

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Speaker 5: something in response. What I would say is the most

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Speaker 5: immediate fear for probably US officials is that they were

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Speaker 5: struggling to get a deal on the table between Lebanon

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Speaker 5: and Israel to really demilitarize the border area there in

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Speaker 5: return for some kind of economic package for Lebanon, which

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Speaker 5: has been struggling for a long time, and I doubt

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Speaker 5: that deal is going anywhere anytime soon.

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Speaker 4: There's just a headline crossing the terminal now from Ason's

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Speaker 4: France Press that you mentioned that Iron's ambassador to Lebanon

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Speaker 4: was wounded in the pager explosion. This all happens as

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Speaker 4: Anthony Blinken sets off on his tenth journey to the

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Speaker 4: region since October seventh, he's going to be in Cairo,

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Speaker 4: we understand, and as Israel sends the message to almost

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Speaker 4: Hochstein representing the Biden administration that there is only a

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Speaker 4: military solution to the north.

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Speaker 6: Should Blincoln be going to Israel on this trip? So far,

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Speaker 6: he's not scheduled too.

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Speaker 7: So far, he is not scheduled too.

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Speaker 5: And it's a good point that you make about Almos Hawkstein,

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Speaker 5: who just twenty four hours ago was warning both Israel

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Speaker 5: and Lebanon not to escalate the situation into a wider war.

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Speaker 5: B Lincoln is scheduled to meet with primarily Egyptian and

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Speaker 5: Klatari officials to get a new deal on the table

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Speaker 5: to present to Hemes and Israel. But the administration is

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Speaker 5: being very quiet about these talks now. They've sort of

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Speaker 5: shifted strategies from being very very public a couple of

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Speaker 5: months ago about a potential ceasefire deal, and that tells

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Speaker 5: me that they are, you know, sort of not even

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Speaker 5: cautiously optimistic, but they are hoping to be able to

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Speaker 5: move forward on some kind of ceasefire deal, but it

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Speaker 5: doesn't seem to be in the offing at the moment.

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Speaker 3: So, in other words, Natasha, the longer this takes, which

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Speaker 3: it's been months and months and months now, the less

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Speaker 3: likely it is that it ultimately comes to fruition. I

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Speaker 3: just wonder, at what point, with a presidential election in

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Speaker 3: the US forty nine days away, they just say, all right, well,

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Speaker 3: this administration has given it their best shot, but it's

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Speaker 3: going to be up to the next president.

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Speaker 5: Now. I think that's what netnya who's calculus is exactly,

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Speaker 5: and I think it's been his calculus not just now,

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Speaker 5: but maybe even a couple of months or three months ago,

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Speaker 5: essentially waiting for the next US administration. It's no surprise

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Speaker 5: to anyone that Netanya, who traditionally, at least in the

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Speaker 5: past decade, has been supporting Republican presidential nominees and likely

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Speaker 5: doesn't want to give Kamala Harris a win prior to

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Speaker 5: the election.

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Speaker 7: And he also has his.

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Speaker 5: Own political domestic political issues to deal with, So as

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Speaker 5: much as he can push this out, probably the better

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Speaker 5: for him.

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Speaker 4: To what extent is our election, if at all here

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Speaker 4: in the US playing into these negotiations. There's obviously a

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Speaker 4: desire by some, including Benjamin Nettie, who I think, to

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Speaker 4: work with Donald Trump, and there are still some questions

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Speaker 4: about the approach that Kamala Harris might take if she

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Speaker 4: wins the White House.

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Speaker 6: How do you see that dynamic?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, that's exactly my point.

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Speaker 5: I think that Prime Minister Nanya, who does not want

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Speaker 5: to give a Democratic nominee the win and would probably

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Speaker 5: prefer a President Trump and giving them a ceasefires is

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Speaker 5: a win for this administration, but it's also a loss

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Speaker 5: for him in the immediate term, and so I think

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Speaker 5: he's going to continue to try to push this out

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Speaker 5: as much as he possibly can, which is one of

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Speaker 5: the reasons. Frankly, the administration was prioritizing this Lebanon Israel deal,

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Speaker 5: but now that also seems to be in critical condition

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Speaker 5: as well well.

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Speaker 3: And as we consider the different relationships here Lebanon and Israel,

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Speaker 3: obviously Hamas and Israel, and the ongoing ceasefire negotiations and

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Speaker 3: Aron itself, it raises the question of the other countries

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Speaker 3: in the Middle East. Joe made the point here that

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Speaker 3: Anthony blink In the Secretary of State is specifically not

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Speaker 3: going to Israel on this strip. He's instead going to Egypt,

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Speaker 3: one of the mediators along with Cutter. How should we

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Speaker 3: be thinking about the evolution of their roles here if

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Speaker 3: the US is in question because of the election and

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Speaker 3: the knowledge that the next president will not be Joe Biden.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, that's a great question. Actually.

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Speaker 5: I mean, Egypt is being heavily or rewarded for its

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Speaker 5: active diplomacy. It's going to have to be instrumental in

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Speaker 5: any kind of peace agreement or cease fire deal as

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Speaker 5: one of the sticking points is the Philadelphi Corridor, which

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Speaker 5: is along the border of the Gaza Strip and Egypt.

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Speaker 5: And the administration has also said that it will unlock

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Speaker 5: a major aid deal to Egypt that it had been

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Speaker 5: blocking because of human rights abuses. So Egypt is certainly,

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Speaker 5: you know, become more of a priority as these negotiations

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Speaker 5: have gone on, in recognition that they will be very,

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Speaker 5: very very important moving forward.

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Speaker 4: I have to ask you about what's happening elsewhere in

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Speaker 4: the region with regard to Iraq. And I bring this

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Speaker 4: up today because the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al

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Speaker 4: Sadani sat down with Bloomberg TV and had a message

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Speaker 4: to send that it's time for American soldiers to leave,

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Speaker 4: remembering there are twenty five hundred left who were put

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Speaker 4: there to fight ISIS. Iraq is a different place now

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Speaker 4: than it was obviously at the end of major combat

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Speaker 4: operations and in twenty fourteen, when the fight against ISIS happened.

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Speaker 4: How should the US receive that message from Iraq.

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Speaker 5: We've been hearing this message for years now, and typically

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Speaker 5: those who are close to Iran, the prime ministers that

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Speaker 5: are close to Iran, reiterate this message over and over again.

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Speaker 5: But what they say publicly and what they say privately

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Speaker 5: tends to be different, and oftentime prime ministers do actually

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Speaker 5: want US forces to stay for for stability reasons. That said,

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Speaker 5: obviously the pressure is accelerating to get US forces out

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Speaker 5: of Iraq and even out of Syria. But I do

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Speaker 5: think that there are security obstacles to that, as we've

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Speaker 5: seen in the past few months with Iranian proxy forces

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Speaker 5: really upping the ante in both Syria and Iraq, and

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Speaker 5: we also have ISIS ex exponentially increasing their attacks in

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Speaker 5: Syria compared to twenty twenty three. So the threat is

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Speaker 5: not gone, but the pressure remains, of course from Sudani

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Speaker 5: for US forces to withdraw.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the threat is not gone. Natasha Hall, It's great

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Speaker 4: to see you again. Antasha, Thank you for your time,

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Speaker 4: Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program Center for Strategic

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Speaker 4: and International Studies.

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Speaker 6: Here on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 3: Here in Washington, where, of course, we're continuing to assess

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Speaker 3: the fallout from a second attempted assassination against former President

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump, this one, of course, as the last one

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Speaker 3: was from back in July unsuccessful. Donald Trump on Sunday

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Speaker 3: escaped unscathed with the help of his Secret Service detail,

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Speaker 3: who were able to thwart the would be shooter before

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Speaker 3: he ever even got the chance to fire off a shot. Still, though, Joe,

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Speaker 3: as we've been discussing for the last forty eight hours,

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Speaker 3: it raises questions about the Secret Service and whether it

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Speaker 3: needs more from Congress in terms of actual financial resources

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Speaker 3: being deployed to it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's true, and you mentioned earlier Speaker Johnson might

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Speaker 4: have a different take on this, suggesting that it's more

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Speaker 4: about manpower allocation as opposed to overall funding of the agency.

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Speaker 4: We're going to talk in a bit with Congressman Bryan's style.

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Speaker 4: The Republican from Wisconsin is with us, chair of the

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Speaker 4: Admin Committee, who might have a thought on this, But

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Speaker 4: a lot of it's going to rest on what we

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Speaker 4: learned from this investigation. It's not just Butler now, but

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Speaker 4: what happened at the golf course really could lead us

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Speaker 4: to a more.

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Speaker 6: Definitive position on that.

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Speaker 4: People frankly talking without a lot of information at this stage,

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Speaker 4: aren't they.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's very true, And of course there are many

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Speaker 3: investigations happening simultaneously. The FBI, of course, is looking into

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Speaker 3: this at the federal level. The state of Florida, according

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Speaker 3: to Governor Ron Santis, has an investigation all its own,

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Speaker 3: and there still is the Congressional Task Force looking into

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Speaker 3: the prior assassination attempt on Donald Trump. That of course

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Speaker 3: has requested briefings from the Secret Service this week as well.

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Speaker 3: So there are many different layers to this, many parties

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Speaker 3: involved as they search for answers.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we turned to Bloomberg's Michelle jam Risco for

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Speaker 4: help on this story. She joins us here at the

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Speaker 4: table in Washington. It's good to see you, Michelle. I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure we even have a number yet, right the

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Speaker 4: White House has pledged to provide whatever resources are necessary.

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Speaker 4: We have since learned that Donald Trump had the full

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Speaker 4: compliment when he was at the golf course and going

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Speaker 4: about his business on Sunday. That was following the president's

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Speaker 4: command after Butler. But outside of an increase of some sort,

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Speaker 4: how do we even arrive at a number or does

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Speaker 4: this involve a reorganization of the agency.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think that the numbers were a little bit

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Speaker 1: distant from I mean, you're right, we haven't gotten down

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Speaker 1: to that level of deep detail in this debate. I

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Speaker 1: think right now we're just assessing probably three different active

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Speaker 1: debates here.

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Speaker 8: One is how did this happen? What was the motive?

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Speaker 9: Here?

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Speaker 1: Kind of fade the political rhetoric around who's responsible for

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Speaker 1: inflaming these sorts of characters. But luckily in this case,

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Speaker 1: the suspect is still alive. It's something that maybe authorities

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Speaker 1: can glean some information of that will help inform how

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Speaker 1: they can prevent.

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Speaker 7: A further attack.

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Speaker 1: So you have the motive debate going on, but then

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Speaker 1: you have, of course the resources debate and should they

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Speaker 1: be lauded, should the Secret Service be lauded for preventing

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Speaker 1: this attack, or is this something that needs to focus

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Speaker 1: on needs more improvement, which seems to be where both

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Speaker 1: parties are at right now, with Biden saying yes, I

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Speaker 1: do think they probably need more personnel and Congress needs

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Speaker 1: to supply that. Harris echoing that sentiment, saying political violence

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Speaker 1: has no rhetoric, has no place in America, and we

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Speaker 1: will ensure the resource, but Trump saying, Okay, where is it?

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Speaker 1: I mean we had this just three months ago. I

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Speaker 1: need more resources at these events and more security. But

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Speaker 1: you're right, I think an open question about how do

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Speaker 1: they do that, How do they allocate those resources to

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Speaker 1: prevent these sorts of attacks from even getting close to

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Speaker 1: being attempts well?

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Speaker 3: And how quickly can they make those changes When this

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Speaker 3: is someone who is currently running for that's right, president,

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Speaker 3: in an election that takes place less than fifty days

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Speaker 3: from now. There's only so much time there's actually work with.

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Speaker 3: Is he's still actively campaigning, He's going to be in

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Speaker 3: Michigan doing a.

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Speaker 1: Real test for Congress and getting things going on Washington,

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Speaker 1: which is never easy on any topic. But also, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're right. I mean, Trump has shown no enthusiasm to

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Speaker 1: relent on his campaign schedule. These big events are what

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Speaker 1: he lives for on the campaign trail, and he's saying,

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Speaker 1: you know, if I have fifty sixty thousand people on

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Speaker 1: my event, regardless of what numbers are appropriate on the

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Speaker 1: crowd size, he wants the amount of personnel that will

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Speaker 1: ensure his safety the next time around.

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Speaker 6: Well, it's back of the swing states.

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Speaker 4: As this has figured out, Donald Trump will be in Flint,

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Speaker 4: Michigan tonight.

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Speaker 6: It looks like a pretty friendly crowd.

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Speaker 4: He's got his former press Sixtory, the governor of Arkansas

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Speaker 4: doing the questioning, and what's built as a town hall event.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Arkansas governor, Sarah Huckabye Sanders. That's you know,

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Speaker 1: he's playing to the crowd that he wants to see.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, key state there in Michigan. Republicans hoping to

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Speaker 1: make some headway there in a state that Harris seems

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Speaker 1: to be in good position as well. But yeah, very tight,

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Speaker 1: tight race there. And then later on this evening we'll

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Speaker 1: hear from him. He seems very active in the evenings

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Speaker 1: these days. It's just you know, keeping us busy late

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Speaker 1: at night, but we'll hear another friendly crowd. He's going

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Speaker 1: to be on Sean Hannity's show and Fox.

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Speaker 3: Well, and I wonder if we'll hear the similar refrains

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Speaker 3: from him that we've heard in the last forty eight hours.

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Speaker 3: And frankly, it appeared first on that debate stage against

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, this notion that it's her in Biden and

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Speaker 3: their rhetoric that is to blame for the attempts on

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Speaker 3: his life. He's describing it as leftist, communist right rhetoric,

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Speaker 3: these ideas that he's a threat to democracy. Should we

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Speaker 3: expect the Harris campaign is going to make some adjusts

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Speaker 3: because of those accusations.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think they're going to continue to go

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Speaker 1: with what they have gone with as an administration, as

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Speaker 1: a Biden Harris administration, with the line that political violence

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Speaker 1: has no place in America. I think this sort of

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Speaker 1: back and forth is showing the real campaign realities. Of course,

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Speaker 1: Trump wants to energize his base with this talk of oh,

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Speaker 1: I will never surrender and look at what they're doing

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Speaker 1: to me. At the same time, as you know, if

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Speaker 1: you think back to the Biden campaign, all those months ago.

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Speaker 1: That was a key theme is Trump is a threat

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Speaker 1: to democracy. And I think you've seen a little bit

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Speaker 1: less of that emphasis from the Harris campaign, but it's

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Speaker 1: still there. It's still you know, she's still talking about

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Speaker 1: how he's kind of undermining institutions and parts of democracy

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Speaker 1: that she's purporting to institutionalize and keep safe.

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Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Michelle Jamrisco, who covers the White House

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Speaker 3: and politics for US, thank you so much for joining

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Speaker 3: us now. As we've mentioned, we're about to speak with

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Speaker 3: someone who knows a great deal about securing political figures,

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Speaker 3: especially high profile ones and high profile areas like on

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Speaker 3: Capitol Hill. And we turn now to the chair of

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Speaker 3: the House Administration Committee and member of its Financial Services Committee,

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Speaker 3: Congressman Brian Style, the Republican from Wisconsin, is joining us

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Speaker 3: now live from the Canon Rotunda. Welcome back to Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Congressman, it's been a while since we've spoken.

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Speaker 3: We would first love to gauge your reaction as we

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Speaker 3: were talking with you in Milwaukee after the first assassination

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Speaker 3: attempt against Donald Trump, and here we find ourselves again

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Speaker 3: after a second one. What is appropriate for your body

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Speaker 3: to do in response here.

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Speaker 10: Well, first off, thank goodness the president is safe and

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Speaker 10: that individual failed in their attempt to injure or kill

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Speaker 10: President Trump. What we need to make sure we're doing

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Speaker 10: is two things. One that we have the correct culture

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Speaker 10: and management at the Secret Service. We have a new

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Speaker 10: leader of the Secret Service, but we need to make

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Speaker 10: sure that that institution is operating effectively to secure not

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Speaker 10: only the President, but not only President Biden, Vice President Harris,

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Speaker 10: but also President Trump and JD.

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Speaker 9: Vance.

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Speaker 10: In the home stretch of this campaign, there's discussion of

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Speaker 10: whether or not the Secret Service needs additional resources, and

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Speaker 10: really seen evidence that they need additional resources. But I

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Speaker 10: do think there's plenty of evidence that we need to

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Speaker 10: have a cultural change inside the Secret Service. I think

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Speaker 10: all lawmakers are frustrated with the stonewalling that we're getting

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Speaker 10: in our investigations to be able to make a determination

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Speaker 10: as to what went wrong in Pennsylvania and to gain

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Speaker 10: more information as to what just occurred in Florida.

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Speaker 4: Congressman, it's good to have you back. Can you speak

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Speaker 4: a bit more to that the stonewalling. You've got an

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Speaker 4: agency now with an acting director who held a news

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Speaker 4: conference yesterday and talked about the level of funding.

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Speaker 6: That he would like to see increased. What do you

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Speaker 6: need from him.

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Speaker 10: Well, there's multiple investigations occurring simultaneously, including a Senate investigation

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Speaker 10: as well as a House investigation. My colleagues that are

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Speaker 10: leading the House investigation continue to be stonewalled and getting

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Speaker 10: critical information is to what played out in Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 9: Understanding what went wrong.

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Speaker 10: Will allow us to make sure that we know the

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Speaker 10: Secret Service both has the resources they need, but also

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Speaker 10: the management structure that's necessary to put in place to

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Speaker 10: keep all of our political leaders safe.

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Speaker 3: Well, as we discuss resources, Congressmen, of course you and

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Speaker 3: your colleagues are in a bit of a discussion about

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Speaker 3: the brighter resources for the government on Capitol Hill. Right now,

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Speaker 3: we are just what two weeks out from a potential

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Speaker 3: shutdown if a continuing resolution cannot be passed. What is

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Speaker 3: your understanding at the moment of what the plan is

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Speaker 3: and whether your speaker actually has the votes.

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Speaker 10: Well, ultimately, the Speaker came forward with a plan to

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Speaker 10: combine both the Save Act to make sure that US

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Speaker 10: elections are for US citizens, to combine that with a

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Speaker 10: continuing resolution to extend that into the new year, where

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Speaker 10: we can come back and address the reckless spending in Washington.

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Speaker 10: I think that's a very reasonable and appropriate play call. Now,

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Speaker 10: in a narrowly divided Congress as we have, any vote

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Speaker 10: is difficult.

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Speaker 9: I hope he brings that to the floor. I think

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Speaker 9: it'll pass.

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Speaker 10: It'll put the Senate on the clock to both secure

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Speaker 10: the election and to make sure that we have government

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Speaker 10: funding in place. That said, no one wins, the veteric

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Speaker 10: government shuts down, So I think it's imperative that we

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Speaker 10: move forward quickly to make sure that we're securing the election,

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Speaker 10: but also imperatively keeping our federal government funding open and operational.

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Speaker 6: You know, it's interesting.

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Speaker 4: We've had a number of critics of this idea, mainly

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Speaker 4: Democrats congressmen and putting the Save Act alongside this funding bill,

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Speaker 4: because they say that it is a solution in search

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Speaker 4: of a problem. It's already illegal for non citizens to

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Speaker 4: register to vote. What do you tell them about why

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Speaker 4: this is needed?

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Speaker 6: Why go through this exercise?

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Speaker 10: Well, this is about actually enforcing the law more than

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Speaker 10: it is simply identifying that it is already illegal. It's

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Speaker 10: already illegal for millions of individuals to cross into the

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Speaker 10: United States illegally, so what we need to be doing

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Speaker 10: is making sure that we're enforcing the law that's on

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Speaker 10: the books. I think it's a reasonable and appropriate action

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Speaker 10: at a period of time when countless individuals have come

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Speaker 10: into the country illegally, that we're making sure that it's

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Speaker 10: only US citizens that are voting in US elections. I

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Speaker 10: think it's a straightforward, common sense election integrity provision that

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Speaker 10: we should be able to attach to the CR and

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Speaker 10: have it passed in the Senate and signed into law

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Speaker 10: before this November election.

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Speaker 3: Well, Congressman, another way people may be looking at it

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Speaker 3: is this is setting the stage for questions around election

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Speaker 3: integrity to be brought forward if Donald Trump actually loses

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Speaker 3: in November. He was just posting on his true social

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Speaker 3: accounts earlier today suggesting that when he wins, those people

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Speaker 3: that cheated will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of

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Speaker 3: the law. Are you concerned, Congressman, what this could potentially

441
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 3: be setting the stage for.

442
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 10: I think we actually have an opportunity to increase Americans'

443
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 10: confidence in their elections by putting in place key election

444
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 10: integrity provisions, such as the Save Act. Any individual who

445
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 10: would engage in a legal behavior should be held accountable

446
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,879
Speaker 10: for that action. I think that's appropriate to make clear.

447
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 10: That said, I think it's reasonable that we should have

448
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 10: common sense election integrity provisions to increase Americans' confidence in

449
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 10: their elections. And so those on the left that push

450
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 10: back against common sense reforms such as photo ID or

451
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 10: the Save Act should be asking themselves why wouldn't they

452
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:03,120
Speaker 10: put in place common sense reforms that actually increase Americans'

453
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 10: confidence in our elections. Because what the data tells us

454
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 10: is as we improve americans confidence in their elections, more

455
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 10: people participate, and more people participating legally in our democracy

456
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 10: is a good thing.

457
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 4: We've been dealing with a lot of noise in this campaign, Congressman,

458
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 4: you don't need me to tell you. The rhetoric has

459
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 4: been hot and voters' attention being pulled in a lot

460
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 4: of different directions.

461
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 6: Right now. JD.

462
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 4: Vance is in oh Claire, Wisconsin today, is going to

463
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 4: be talking a little bit later on this afternoon to voters.

464
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 4: When you clear through the noise, what is the issue

465
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 4: that's going to help Wisconsin break for one campaign or

466
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 4: the other voters hit the polls in seven weeks.

467
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 10: My home state of Wisconsin is the center of the storm.

468
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 10: Is good to have that attention on the state, But

469
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 10: what I think we should be focusing in on are

470
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 10: the biggest policy debates that this country needs to have, Primarily,

471
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 10: how do we bring costs down so families can afford

472
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 10: the things that they need, and how do we secure

473
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 10: the US Mexico border, because the broken border is having

474
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 10: real and serious consequences in my home state of Wisconsin

475
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 10: and in states across the country. The more we're having

476
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,959
Speaker 10: a robust conversation on the policy issues in front of us,

477
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 10: the better we are as a country. As we allow

478
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 10: the dialogue to turn into other things, it's far less

479
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 10: productive for our democracy.

480
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 3: Congressman, as you're there in the capital, of course, you

481
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,639
Speaker 3: are looking at getting a floor vote today on a

482
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: bill you've brought forward protecting Americans' retirement Savings from Politics Act.

483
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 3: You want to rein in with this bill, sir. Proxy

484
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 3: advisors why.

485
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 10: I'm very concerned about the significant role that proxy advisors have.

486
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,959
Speaker 10: The United States has a clear duopoly where about ninety

487
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 10: seven percent of all proxy advisor services are provided by

488
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 10: two firms. They're not properly regulated by the Securities in

489
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 10: Exchange Commission. We saw Chairman Gensler got and remove Chairman

490
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 10: Clayton's bill on this, I have brought forward legislation that

491
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 10: says we should not only regulate them, we should make

492
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 10: sure that Americans understand if these institutions have conflicts of interest.

493
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 10: I've been concerned that these inte institutions, working with liberal groups,

494
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 10: have worked to weaponize Americans' retirement accounts. This is an

495
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 10: opportunity to stand up for good governance, to stand up

496
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 10: for proper regulation of outside entities, and at the end

497
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 10: of the day, to make sure we're protecting American retirement

498
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 10: accounts that have shares being voted on by institutional investors.

499
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 4: Well, that's important to our audience here at Bloomberg. Congressman,

500
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 4: do you have co signers? What kind of support do

501
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 4: you have for this bill?

502
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 10: We have broad support. We passed it through committee with

503
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 10: full Republican support. I think we have an opportunity as

504
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 10: we bring it to the House floor this week to

505
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 10: pick up Democratic votes. There's no reason that Iss and

506
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 10: Glass Lewis, which have such a significant impact on the

507
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 10: voting of shares across the board from American publicly traded companies,

508
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 10: shouldn't be properly regulated by the securities Exchange Commission, and

509
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 10: in particular, both of these institutions should have to disclose

510
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 10: if they have a conflict of interest. That is one

511
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 10: of my biggest concerns with both of these institutions, who

512
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 10: are advising countless institutional investors on how to vote, they're

513
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 10: not currently disclosing their conflicts of interest. The Securitiest Exchange

514
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 10: Commission should require that, and my bill does.

515
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 3: That just quickly. Congressman on conflicts of interest, Donald Trump

516
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 3: last night was out endorsing the project of hit members

517
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 3: of his family World Liberty Financial getting into the crypto

518
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 3: business more materially. Do you worry about conflicts of interest

519
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 3: there if he actually becomes president.

520
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 9: Oh, he's a private citizen.

521
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 10: He's allowed to engage in private business activities while he's

522
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 10: a private citizen. Anybody that's in elected office follows the

523
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 10: ethics rules of their given office as I would in

524
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 10: the House, as a senator would, or as a president would.

525
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 10: What I'm focusing on in my legislation is, in particular,

526
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 10: making sure that we're regulating appropriately American publicly traded companies

527
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 10: and we're not allowing individuals to have those conflicts of

528
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 10: interests that aren't fully disclosed to the American people.

529
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 6: Congressman, is good to have you back.

530
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 4: I'm completely out of time twenty five or fifty tomorrow

531
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 4: by the FED.

532
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 9: All of the data, and they're led by the data

533
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 9: to not buy politics.

534
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 6: There it is ooh, I think I know what you meant.

535
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 4: Brian Style, the Congressman from Wisconsin, the Republican view on

536
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 4: a number of issues. It's great to have you back, sir.

537
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 4: With us on Bloomberg TV and radio. Around this time, Kaylie,

538
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,880
Speaker 4: we're going to be winding up to special coverage.

539
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 6: Of the FED meeting. Of course, you can always count

540
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:19,479
Speaker 6: on us.

541
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:21,879
Speaker 4: We'll have much more with our panel coming up next

542
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 4: on Bloomberg.

543
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

544
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

545
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 2: and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

546
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

547
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

548
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 3: The campaign trail is everywhere today for the presidential and

549
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 3: vice presidential nominees for the Republican and Democratic parties. We've

550
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 3: got them all spread out. Kamala Harris. Just about an

551
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 3: hour from now, we'll be sitting down in Philadelphia with

552
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 3: members of the National Association of Black Journalists for an interview,

553
00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 3: of course, following the one that Donald Trump did earlier

554
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 3: this summer that led to some negative attention surrounding his

555
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 3: questioning of her racial identity. Meanwhile, Harris is running mate

556
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 3: Tim Walls is going to be in two swing states today,

557
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,880
Speaker 3: Georgia this morning, then heading to North Carolina, while JD.

558
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 3: Vance is going to be in Michigan, as will Donald Trump.

559
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 3: He has a town hall this evening in Flint, Michigan

560
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: and moderated by his former Press secretary and the Governor

561
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 3: of Arkansas, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and this will be another

562
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 3: opportunity to hear from him. In the aftermath of the

563
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 3: second attempt on his life this past week.

564
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 4: He's not been holding back this time, blaming Democrats, even

565
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 4: naming Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for their rhetorics spawning

566
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,959
Speaker 4: what he says, bullets flying here. And I suspect that

567
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 4: that will come up this evening, even though it has

568
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 4: been confirmed that Joe Biden requested and delivered additional Secret

569
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 4: Service protection for Donald Trump while he was on the

570
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 4: golf course on Sunday, We're hearing a lot about double

571
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 4: standards right now, and this is a real face off,

572
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 4: a rhetorical I hope it stays stays a rhetorical face

573
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 4: off between the two campaigns right now, because both are

574
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 4: saying a lot ad vance With this very long tweet,

575
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 4: hundreds of words long, calling out Kamala Harris for suggesting

576
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 4: that Donald Trump would mean the end of democracy.

577
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 6: He says the gunman acted on those words.

578
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 4: But of course Donald Trump is frequently called Kamala Harris

579
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 4: a fascist who would be the end of the country,

580
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 4: which sounds a lot like that same line.

581
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, they both have tried to cast each other as

582
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 3: the greatest threat to democracy. The question I guess, moving

583
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 3: forward through the remaining forty nine days of this presidential

584
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 3: campaign is whether their language and rhetoric might change as

585
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: a result of heightened threats that we clearly see evident

586
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 3: in multiple attempts on the Republican nominee's life.

587
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 4: We turned to Rick Davis and Genie Schanzeno for insights here.

588
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 4: It's not an easy conversation and it's difficult to tell

589
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 4: where we're going, but it's an important moment here in

590
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 4: American politics. She is political science professor at Iona University.

591
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 4: He is partner at stone Court Capital, and Genie, I'll

592
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 4: start with you because jd Vance has had the last

593
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 4: salvo here. I guess Donald Trump did last evening in

594
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 4: his crypto rollout talking about the role that demicocrats have

595
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 4: played in their rhetoric on the campaign trail. But we

596
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 4: have to acknowledge both sides here, right, That's right.

597
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 8: And you know, I wanted to say Happy Constitution Day

598
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 8: to you guys. It is Constitution Day, and as I'm

599
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 8: listening to you go off about politics and American politics today,

600
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 8: it's good to remember that it was September seventeenth that

601
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 8: they signed the Constitution in Philadelphia, an important federal day

602
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 8: to remember. But you know, jd Vance has, you know,

603
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,959
Speaker 8: sort of repeated what Donald Trump has been saying on

604
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 8: truth social I agree that you know this rhetoric, We've

605
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 8: heard it. It's intensified on both sides. And I think

606
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 8: one of the stunning things is what a big difference

607
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 8: this is from what happened after the first shooting attempt

608
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 8: on Donald Trump, when you know, the Harris campaign took

609
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 8: some of their ads off of the air. Donald Trump

610
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 8: talked about having a reawakening and there was much more

611
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 8: talk about unity. Perhaps it's because we don't see the shot,

612
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 8: we don't see a video. Perhaps it's because the gunman

613
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 8: never got a shot off. It's hard to say why.

614
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 8: Perhaps it's because we're fewer days now until the election,

615
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 8: but none of that has happened this time both sides.

616
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 8: The rhetoric has been pretty pretty tough, and it is

617
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 8: problematic for people who want the option to listen to

618
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 8: these candidates and to make up their minds about who

619
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 8: they're going to vote. You want them to tamp it down,

620
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 8: but we don't see any sign of that when we

621
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 8: look at what they're saying in these states.

622
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 3: Well, in Genies, you remind us that it's Constitution Day.

623
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 3: It also is National voter registration Day, and Rick, as

624
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: we consider those who may be deciding whether or not

625
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 3: they want to partake in the political democratic process of

626
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: this republic that was formed by the Constitution this time around,

627
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 3: does the type of language we're seeing from the candidates

628
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 3: who are their choices reinforce this idea that this is

629
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 3: a process someone should want to participate in. Who is

630
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 3: drawn in by this kind of dialogue.

631
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 11: Well, we've been in a political environment for some time now,

632
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 11: where activists have sort of taken control of the messages,

633
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 11: and activists are much more divisive in their rhetoric than

634
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 11: sort of everyday voters on aligned voters, voters who see

635
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,479
Speaker 11: it as their civic duty to participate in elections, or

636
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 11: just have a particular point of view that they want

637
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 11: to see implemented in Congress or the White House. And

638
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 11: so this kind of activistem inside politics has really been,

639
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 11: I think a very negative thing, both on the Republican

640
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,959
Speaker 11: side and the Democratic side. I had moments of optimism

641
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 11: when Oprah Winfrey stands at the Democratic Convention starts talking

642
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 11: about joy. Well, we've come a long way since that

643
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 11: convention talking about joy, and I think it would actually

644
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 11: behoove both campaigns that are pretty much stuck where they

645
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 11: are for now in trying something different, you know, and

646
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 11: maybe some uplifting, positive rhetoric about the future of our

647
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 11: country and the incredible capability that the American people possess

648
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 11: to create change. Get out of the way of a

649
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 11: good electorate and let them think about something positive for

650
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 11: a change rather than the petty rhetoric that we see

651
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 11: being thrown around today.

652
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 4: Well, we do appreciate the spirit of that message Rick.

653
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 4: The fact of the matter is here, Genie. The situation

654
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 4: in Springfield, Ohio continues to deteriorate. Governor DeWine is sending

655
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,479
Speaker 4: state police into the town today a contingent of thirty

656
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 4: six troopers. We now count more than thirty bomb threats

657
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 4: against schools a local university there. As we were discussing earlier,

658
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 4: Wittenberg had already moved to all remote classes this week

659
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 4: and has now canceled all home and away athletic events

660
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 4: this week. Donald Trump says he's going to go to Springfield.

661
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 4: Shouldkamala Harris as well?

662
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 8: No, I don't think either one of them should go.

663
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 8: I think they should listen to the Republican Governor DeWine.

664
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 8: I think they should listen to them. Mayor. These are

665
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 8: people who have begged them to tone down the rhetoric

666
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 8: because as you're just talking about the real life implications

667
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 8: on people in that town or city, people who work

668
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 8: their people who live there, it is very disruptive to

669
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 8: their lives. I mean, you have people who have been

670
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 8: scared to go outside, who have been scared to go

671
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 8: around in the city, who feel that they may be

672
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 8: under aftack. You have threats of violence, and bombings. This

673
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 8: is no way to live. If we want to have

674
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 8: a discussion about immigration, and we should, it shouldn't have

675
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 8: to be on the backs of lies to get attention

676
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 8: on the issue. And so this is where I think.

677
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,959
Speaker 8: I don't think Kamalahara should go there, and I don't

678
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 8: think Donald Trump should go. But of course, Joe, I'm

679
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 8: not sure he's going to listen to me either, So

680
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 8: I may just be talking into the wind here.

681
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 3: Well, Genie, as we discuss where Kamala Harris should go,

682
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 3: I also wonder where you think the Vice president should

683
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 3: go today. In her conversation with the National Association of

684
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 3: Black Journalists, it was of course an NABJ conference interview

685
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 3: that Donald Trump took part in where things got combative

686
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 3: and he questioned her racial identity, whether she was an

687
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 3: Indian or Black American, if she was just switching between

688
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,280
Speaker 3: the two as it suited her. She hasn't really wanted

689
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 3: to engage in that conversation. She did touch on it,

690
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 3: perhaps a bit more on the debate stage than we've

691
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 3: seen her do in the weeks since he first said

692
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 3: those things, But is she going to be able to

693
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 3: avoid that in this conversation in a similar forum today,

694
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 3: or does she need to address it head on?

695
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 8: You know, I think if she's asked, she can address it.

696
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 8: But to your point, Kaylie, she has really steered away

697
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 8: from identity politics, and I think in this election and

698
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 8: in this election environment, she should focus on issues that

699
00:35:56,160 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 8: matter to people. That is economic security, that is their safety,

700
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 8: that is jobs, that is inflation. You know, you've been

701
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 8: talking a lot obviously about what's going to be happening tomorrow.

702
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 8: The calendar is so important for the Hears campaign. Tomorrow

703
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 8: can be a very good day for them. And if

704
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 8: I was her or I was advising her, I would say,

705
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 8: focus on the economy and talk about what you're going

706
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 8: to do to address the high cost of living. That

707
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 8: is the number one concerned people have along with inflation,

708
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 8: and tomorrow may be a very good day for you

709
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 8: to underscore the work that the Biden camp or the

710
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 8: Biden White House has done and what you plan to

711
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 8: do differently going forward. So I think that's much more

712
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,439
Speaker 8: important than the identity politics. But she may get asked

713
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 8: to respond, certainly to what Donald Trump said in that

714
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 8: when he was talking to that group you know a

715
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 8: few months.

716
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 4: Ago, with that said Rick Politico is reporting that both

717
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 4: running mates Tim Walls and JD. Vance will address the

718
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 4: Business Roundtable this week. Ad Vance has or spokesperson has

719
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 4: confirmed that'll be Thursday morning. We're waiting to hear about

720
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 4: the Walls address. This is pretty interesting an important group here.

721
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 4: Of course we talked earlier when Donald Trump and Joe

722
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: Biden were addressing that group. Of course, Joe Biden sent

723
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 4: to surrogate. They originally invited Kamala Harris. She's decided to

724
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 4: send her running mate instead.

725
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 6: Is that wise?

726
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 9: You know?

727
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 11: I mean, you don't want your principal Kamala Harris basically

728
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:36,919
Speaker 11: doing an opposite speech with a vice presidential running mate

729
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 11: of Donald Trump. The reality of Donald Trump did this

730
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 11: and was highly unsuccessful, you know, by all measures from

731
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 11: the disipans who came out saying that they couldn't really

732
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 11: even understand what he was talking about. So yeah, no,

733
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 11: I don't think it's that big a deal. They don't

734
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,800
Speaker 11: really have a constituency. Maybe money, but I'm pretty confident

735
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 11: that by now both campaigns have mind that that that

736
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 11: money opportunity within the participants there pretty well. But I

737
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 11: do think it's very worthy of her time to make

738
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 11: statements and speeches about the economy. We're we're not home free.

739
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 11: There's an opportunity, even this week, with the Fed's decision

740
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:27,280
Speaker 11: on rates, to maybe have some win ater back, and frankly,

741
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 11: I'd want to be there beforehand, not after the fact,

742
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 11: talking about how, you know, the economy is improving and

743
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 11: interest rates have the potential coming down. So I'm actually

744
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 11: surprised she wouldn't use an opportunity like this to at

745
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 11: least do something, regardless of whether it's with the members

746
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 11: of the roundtable or somewhere in a targeted state that

747
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 11: that obviously has been affected by high inflation.

748
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 3: All right, Rick Davis Stone Cord Capital Partner, and Jeanie

749
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:00,800
Speaker 3: shan Z, you know of this Center for the Study

750
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 3: of the Presidency and Congress. Thank you both so much

751
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 3: for joining us our Bloomberg Politics contributor signature political panel,

752
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 3: especially for teasing ahead to tomorrow's big event, the FED decision,

753
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 3: the only time we could see a rate cut prior

754
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 3: to the November election.

755
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 4: I'll be right around this time tomorrow. We're handing things

756
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 4: over to special coverage. Stay with us a lot more

757
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 4: ahead on balance of power. This is Bloomberg.

758
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast cans

759
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

760
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 2: roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

761
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

762
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

763
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 4: As we turn our attention to the other big ones

764
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 4: today in Washington at least, and that's the FOMC. It's

765
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 4: the start of a two day FED meeting. If you're

766
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 4: with us here on Bloomberg, you probably know that already.

767
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 4: You probably also know that this has come down to

768
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 4: an argument between twenty five and fifty and we're not

769
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 4: going to know until well a little bit later than

770
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 4: this time.

771
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 6: Tomorrow. Of course, we'll have special coverage.

772
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 4: Of the outcome of this FED meeting, the announcement, the statement,

773
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 4: the dot plot, and the news conference, and it's something

774
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 4: that we want to start our conversation with Danny Blanchflower on.

775
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:15,120
Speaker 4: Here we're going to get to the candidate's economic proposals

776
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 4: as well, with the help of the tenured professor of

777
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 4: economics at Dartmouth College, recipient to the Commander of the

778
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:25,320
Speaker 4: Order of the British Empire, Danny Blanchflower, Welcome back to Bloomberg.

779
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 4: Are we in the twenty five or fifty camp here, Danny?

780
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 6: And does it matter?

781
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:30,720
Speaker 8: Well?

782
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 12: I don't think it really matters. But I think consensus

783
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 12: is gradually moving towards fifty. But I think really the

784
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 12: big issue is what's the signal going forward? What are

785
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 12: the dot plots look like? Another market's right to be

786
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 12: basically pricing in not just rate cuts now, but rate

787
00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:51,240
Speaker 12: cuts going forward. And obviously this is sort of happening

788
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 12: globally because the Bank of England meets this week. Suspicions

789
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 12: are they'll probably do twenty five, but they might even

790
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 12: do fifty, and they might be impacted obviously by what

791
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 12: the Fed does ECP moving in that direction. I mean,

792
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 12: the global consensus is that the US labor market in

793
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,839
Speaker 12: particular is slowing and you need to get ahead of it.

794
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 12: And I think that's really where we are. Might bet,

795
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:15,800
Speaker 12: if I had to really bet, was they'll go with fifty.

796
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,479
Speaker 6: If that's the case, you know what they're going to say.

797
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 6: Political motivation.

798
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 4: What do you make of this whole conversation, even though

799
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 4: seven weeks to the election.

800
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 12: Well, that's obviously a big part of it. I mean,

801
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,839
Speaker 12: I recall sitting in meetings where we were thinking about

802
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 12: interest rate changes, and we were thinking about politics and

803
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 12: and how to be seen to be sort of separate

804
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 12: from the politics. But I guess in this instance, the

805
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 12: data is king, and the move to try and get

806
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 12: ahead of a slowing labor market is important. But obviously

807
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 12: people are going to say, well, this is a political move.

808
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 12: I don't think it is basically because of the global

809
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 12: moves that are going on. But people on both sides say,

810
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 12: ha ha, look, this is a this is a cut

811
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 12: to help the administration, to help Kamala Harris. I don't think,

812
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 12: I mean that will be sent sent a part of

813
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 12: their conversations, But in the end, I think they'll look

814
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 12: through that and say, data's king. I think we have

815
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 12: to go with this. I don't think there's any doubt

816
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 12: that they'll cut.

817
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 6: The question is will they do?

818
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:19,800
Speaker 12: Will they do twenty five or fifty? But if you

819
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,800
Speaker 12: look at the sort of interest rate futures, as they say, markets,

820
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:24,439
Speaker 12: I think this is the first of quite a lot.

821
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,280
Speaker 6: You know, I'm dying to pull you into the political conversation.

822
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 6: I actually think of you.

823
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 4: The debating tax proposals for instance, the lack of acknowledgment

824
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,320
Speaker 4: of our deficit right now. And I thought I would

825
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 4: just give you a taste here, just to work you

826
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 4: up a little bit on some of the highlights that

827
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 4: we've heard just over the past couple of days on

828
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 4: the campaign trail the last couple of weeks. To be fair,

829
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:49,800
Speaker 4: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, let.

830
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 13: It rip, and remember, what I'm going to do is

831
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 13: something that nobody has ever even thought about doing. No

832
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 13: tax on tips, sign President.

833
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 8: We will continue working.

834
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 7: Taxes on tests for service.

835
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:09,280
Speaker 13: And I want to cut taxes on Americans while putting

836
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 13: tariffs on China and foreign countries.

837
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 6: To bring our jobs back home.

838
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 8: All the while, he intends to enact what in effect

839
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 8: is a national.

840
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:23,280
Speaker 5: Sales tax that would raise prices on middle class families.

841
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 13: As part of our additional tax cuts, we will end

842
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,919
Speaker 13: all taxes on overtime.

843
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 9: You know what that means.

844
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 3: My plan is to give a fifty thousand dollars tax

845
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 3: deduction to start up small businesses.

846
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 6: All right.

847
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 4: I don't know what the next exemption is going to be,

848
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 4: Danny Blanchflower, but I guess they're going to be more

849
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 4: in the next seven weeks. No one this is what

850
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 4: they have in common, is talking really seriously about how

851
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 4: they're going to pay for it. At what point do

852
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 4: you start beating your head against the wall.

853
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:00,120
Speaker 12: Well, rhetorics all very well, it's not just even how

854
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 12: do you pay for it? But how could you possibly

855
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 12: implement it? I mean the idea of no tax on tips,

856
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 12: So maybe that means that firms stop paying you know,

857
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 12: any amount per hour and just let everything go to tips.

858
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 12: How do you implement no no tax on overtime? I mean,

859
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 12: the unions will love that. I've just got a new

860
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 12: paper out show and they're on average, union workers get

861
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:26,720
Speaker 12: about five hours a week more than non union workers.

862
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 12: How do you do that? How do you prevent firms

863
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 12: suddenly saying okay, well we'll change the work weeks, so

864
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 12: instead of you doing forty hours plus five overtime, you

865
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 12: do thirty five hours and ten overtime. So the practicalities

866
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 12: of how you do this is obviously a complex one,

867
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 12: and the debate over our tariff's attax has become complicated.

868
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 12: My old colleague Justin Wolfers has been having a conversation

869
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 12: with JD. Vance about the price of washing machines and dishwashers.

870
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 12: I mean, this is this is I guess economics for

871
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 12: the for the election, and how you implement it, how

872
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 12: you pay for it, what you're going to do with

873
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 12: the deficit, and not details that have really been worked out,

874
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 12: and an economist like me shivers.

875
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 6: I pictured you shivering.

876
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 4: So do we just assume that this is all bluster?

877
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 4: Should voters pay any attention? Should investors pay any attention?

878
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 4: You mentioned tariffs. The president could do that on his

879
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 4: or her own. Tax cuts require Congress.

880
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 12: Well, the first one. The practicalities of tax cuts will

881
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 12: obviously depend on the makeup of the House and the

882
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 12: Senate and what kind of policy you can come through with.

883
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 12: You're right that the president can implement.

884
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 8: Tariffs.

885
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 12: Now it's clear. I mean, there's been a set of

886
00:45:42,680 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 12: recent surveys done, As I say, Justin Wolf has has

887
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 12: been pushing this. I mean, it's quite clear that tariffs

888
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 12: are basically a tax on consumers, and the consumers will

889
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 12: pay this, and this will have big inflationary effects and

890
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 12: so on. So the question is, I mean, is the

891
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 12: rhetoric going to turn into actually implementable policies. I assume

892
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 12: the Fed won't be terribly happy to see a big

893
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,439
Speaker 12: jump in the inflation rate, because the response to that

894
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 12: would be that the FED would then start raising rates,

895
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 12: and you might see, well if Trump says he's going

896
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 12: to go to tariff, and he's going to start to

897
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:19,919
Speaker 12: think about how to prevent the FED compensating for that fact.

898
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 12: So this doesn't really look like sensible economics. I mean,

899
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 12: the idea that you could money to set and help

900
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:30,160
Speaker 12: small businesses set up, well maybe, so how you do

901
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 12: that remains unclear, and whether you could implement it. I

902
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 12: mean I have a lot of evidence, particularly for minority

903
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:39,240
Speaker 12: owned firms that actually there are capital constraints, but especially

904
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:43,240
Speaker 12: black owned businesses than others. But whether you think giving

905
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 12: away fifty thousand tax break would have positive I suspect

906
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 12: it probably would, and it would probably have a particularly

907
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:53,279
Speaker 12: helpful effect, as I say, on minorities. But no one's

908
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 12: actually priced this out. I mean, you didn't actually say

909
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 12: to me that there no tax on tips that's going

910
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:01,360
Speaker 12: to cost twenty seven billion, right, this one on task

911
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 12: that's going to cost forty eight billion. We haven't seen

912
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 12: the thing priced out. So these are sort of economics

913
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 12: of wishful thinking. We will see, but they need to

914
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:12,240
Speaker 12: be priced, and we need to think of the effects

915
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 12: on the deficit. And we'll see if one of these,

916
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 12: whichever one of the politicians wins, whether these things can

917
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 12: actually practically be implemented as an economy is slow.

918
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,320
Speaker 4: Well, I know that Mia mcguinnis is from the Committee

919
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 4: for a Responsible Federal Budget crunch that no taxes on

920
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 4: tips on its own to cost somewhere between one hundred

921
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:38,319
Speaker 4: and two hundred billion dollars, which at the moment would

922
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 4: be defense or a deficit spending rather.

923
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:41,279
Speaker 6: I don't know.

924
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 4: Danny Blanchflower made it clear in past conversations I would

925
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 4: fail your class, and I'm getting a sense that the

926
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 4: candidates for president might also. Danny, it's great to have

927
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 4: you back from Dartmouth College, straight to your living room

928
00:47:55,520 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 4: and your car and the podcast. Thanks for listening to

929
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 4: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if

930
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 4: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get

931
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 4: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday

932
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:14,840
Speaker 4: from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.