Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Hello everybody, Happy election day.
Speaker 2: It's Tuesday, it's here, it's the morning. It's time for
Speaker 2: the update. All four of us are in the house,
Speaker 2: I guess in our respective houses. We will be in
Speaker 2: our studio as a reminder, two thousand what is it?
Speaker 2: We will be doing the live stream at six thirty
Speaker 2: pm Eastern time, all four of us at the desk,
Speaker 2: and we will.
Speaker 3: Go as long as we need to go.
Speaker 2: We're really excited for it, and we thought we just
Speaker 2: what is it, Crystal. We've got tea leaves leaves.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all the two. So you have a few votes
Speaker 1: cast in Dick Much, New Hampshire. This is like you
Speaker 1: know every time election traditions. So we'll give you those results.
Speaker 1: You can way overanalyze them as people always do. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we have the very last of like the predictions like
Speaker 1: the official you know, Nate Silver, John Ralston, Larry Sabato,
Speaker 1: So break that down for You've got a little glimpse
Speaker 1: in the final rallies and a big endorsement on the
Speaker 1: Trump side, Joe Rogan making it official that he is
Speaker 1: endorsing Donald Trump. So bring all that to you also,
Speaker 1: because basically spoiler alert, all of these predictions, like the
Speaker 1: fancy models just came down to like, eh, go either way,
Speaker 1: I don't know. So we thought we would also take
Speaker 1: a look at some of the dumber ways that people
Speaker 1: do election predictions, some of the like traditions, superstictions, things
Speaker 1: like which Halloween mask sells more, what this viral hippo
Speaker 1: did with the cake, all these sorts of things. So
Speaker 1: we'll dig into those tea leaves like a real tea
Speaker 1: leaves as well, and also things that are equally scientific
Speaker 1: like Alan Lichtman's keys. Yes, so we can all make
Speaker 1: of that what we will.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's exciting.
Speaker 2: As a reminder to everybody, six thirty pm, like I said,
Speaker 2: we'll be live, go ahead and sign out Breakingpoints dot com.
Speaker 2: You will want to do that because we'll also be
Speaker 2: taking questions from our subscribers during the stream.
Speaker 3: But yeah, what's first on deck? Crystal? What do you well?
Speaker 1: I want to pull out Dixville Notch, but really quick
Speaker 1: before I do that, Emily and Ryan, you guys we
Speaker 1: made you give us predictions like last week, and there's
Speaker 1: been a bunch of new poles and whatever the drop
Speaker 1: since then, any any revisions while I'm getting the Dixville
Speaker 1: Notch votes pulled up here, it.
Speaker 4: Would be smart to make revisions because then, no matter
Speaker 4: what happens one of the.
Speaker 1: That's true, giving you that opportunity. That's like file he
Speaker 1: made three different maps. I was like, that's yeah, that's that's.
Speaker 3: Not fair, that's smart. No, that's very smart. Ridiculous.
Speaker 4: Yeah, one of my maps has Trump winning and one
Speaker 4: has Kamala winning.
Speaker 5: Come on.
Speaker 1: Right, thanks Silver, Yeah, how about you? Amy?
Speaker 5: And that's basically it's a cop out.
Speaker 6: But it's like when you look at the you go
Speaker 6: to do the maps, as we've all done, and you're
Speaker 6: calling certain states and then you're looking at where the
Speaker 6: polling averages are in those states and you're just like,
Speaker 6: this is insane. I mean, it could with what you
Speaker 6: guys have been talking about a lot in terms of
Speaker 6: not knowing the direction of the polling era, like we
Speaker 6: don't even have a good sense. In twenty twenty, it
Speaker 6: was like, well, they might be under estimating Trump, Like
Speaker 6: if I had to guess the polls, l still underestimate Trump.
Speaker 5: Do not have that this time around at all.
Speaker 6: So that's where you get these two different versions of
Speaker 6: the map where you can have like a Kammalo sweep
Speaker 6: or a Trump sweep, or you can have something like
Speaker 6: what Sager predicted, which is sort of what I'm leaning
Speaker 6: towards right now.
Speaker 5: Which is a really really close electoral college battle.
Speaker 6: Because it's split, the results end up being as split
Speaker 6: as they seemed like they would.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it's kind of funny because everybody knows
Speaker 1: the Poles are wrong, like the Poles are, the Polsters
Speaker 1: are definitely just like hurting, it's a tie. I don't
Speaker 1: know what's to tell you, but we have no idea
Speaker 1: what direction they're.
Speaker 4: Wrong, which means there's a strong chance that we could
Speaker 4: expect to not know until like Friday or something, but
Speaker 4: might actually know tonight. Like that there's a strong chance
Speaker 4: we actually are shocked and are like, oh wow, this
Speaker 4: this thing's over.
Speaker 1: Well the leam and we're like, oh, we actually know
Speaker 1: what happened.
Speaker 2: I think just to prepare for people like if Kamala right,
Speaker 2: because the polls close in Georgia at seven and then
Speaker 2: North Carolina seven thirty, and then Pennsylvania at eight.
Speaker 3: If the polls close.
Speaker 2: In Georgia and North Carolina and you can call, we
Speaker 2: will reminder, will have decision desk. If Decision desk can
Speaker 2: call those two states, you know, almost immediately and then
Speaker 2: maybe put a trajectory for her in Pennsylvania. I'm not
Speaker 2: going to say it's over, but you know, the math
Speaker 2: becomes very difficult for Trump. Similarly, you know, if Trump
Speaker 2: has big strength in Georgia and in North Carolina, which
Speaker 2: were two tiede states, and then shows a lot of
Speaker 2: potential going into the wee hours of like one or
Speaker 2: two am, they call PA at two am in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 2: although everything I've read says it may take a little
Speaker 2: bit longer. Pennsylvania election workers are not allowed to count
Speaker 2: ballots until actually is it the start of polls, like
Speaker 2: or on election day or whatever, so processing can take
Speaker 2: a little while. But there is a strong chance we're
Speaker 2: gonna know a lot, you know tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so. I mean even last time when
Speaker 1: it came down to the wire, we really did go
Speaker 1: to bed pretty much knowing, Yeah, that's right, the way
Speaker 1: things were. We know, yeah, we knew all right. So
Speaker 1: here we go the much anticipated Dixville Notch presidential results.
Speaker 1: And guess what, guys, is a tie? Yeah, Paris three
Speaker 1: Trump three. Now, if you are a Democrat, you may
Speaker 1: look at this and go Dixville Notch haz zero registered Democrats.
Speaker 1: This is four Republicans and two independents. So we're already
Speaker 1: picking up those Nicky Haley voters. And all six of
Speaker 1: these people voted for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary.
Speaker 1: If you're a Republican, you look at these and go,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden swept. Yeah, take five h last time around.
Speaker 1: So you know, really choose your own adventure with this
Speaker 1: particular one. So make of it what you will, and
Speaker 1: I recommend you make nothing of it. Yeah, let me
Speaker 1: go and show you John Ralston's predictions. Now this made
Speaker 1: quite a bit of waves. I'm curious, in particular, what
Speaker 1: Emily and Zager have thought about this. So Ralston is,
Speaker 1: you know, the guru of early vote in Nevada. His
Speaker 1: presidential prediction record is actually perfect since he started making
Speaker 1: these predictions. And the TLDR here is that after he
Speaker 1: looked at the early vote and what male ballots he
Speaker 1: thinks are still outstanding, and his historical experience with the
Speaker 1: effectiveness of the Harry Reid machine, he is very narrowly
Speaker 1: predicting a Harris victory forty eight point five percent to
Speaker 1: Trump's forty eight point two percent, which is like a
Speaker 1: preposterously narrow margin. But you know, part of what was
Speaker 1: consequential about this is that the Republicans really felt like
Speaker 1: this was the place where the early vote numbers were
Speaker 1: most clearly in their favor, and so I think, you know,
Speaker 1: there was an expectation that he was probably going to
Speaker 1: call it for Trump, and instead he narrowly goes for Kamala.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, well, you know, by his own admission,
Speaker 2: he's got Kamala there by point three. It's also so
Speaker 2: funny if you read the analysis, He's basically like, yeah,
Speaker 2: Trump is up, but I'm just gonna guess that the
Speaker 2: Red machine knows exactly how many votes that they need
Speaker 2: to be postmarked by election day. And I've never bet
Speaker 2: against the red machine and the read machine will turn
Speaker 2: those folks out, which is kind of a hilarious, almost
Speaker 2: like mafioso style analysis of the state. But he's not wrong.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, he's called it correctly every single time.
Speaker 2: He has a perfect record. But he did, of course
Speaker 2: leave himself there where if he is wrong, like let's
Speaker 2: say Trump wins byo point six, well, you know he's
Speaker 2: got a decent out so last time around, you know, regardless,
Speaker 2: it does show a much closer election. Joe Biden got
Speaker 2: fifty percent of the vote donald Trump at forty seven
Speaker 2: point six, so narrowing the gap there three. I took
Speaker 2: a little bit hard in this, even though he did
Speaker 2: predict a Kamala win, just because this would verify a
Speaker 2: lot of the Sun Belt strength for Donald Trump that
Speaker 2: I had included in my map, including with the Latino vote.
Speaker 2: So I'm interested to see, you know, which way it goes,
Speaker 2: because even if he is predicting such a narrow result,
Speaker 2: that actually would be a sign of strength for the
Speaker 2: tightness of the polling, particularly in those states Nevada and Arizona,
Speaker 2: and not necessarily a large miss.
Speaker 3: So that was just my general read of it.
Speaker 4: And from my perciective. If Ralston does have a bias,
Speaker 4: it's too much confidence in the read machine. And so
Speaker 4: I've covered Harry Reid for so long. I've also known
Speaker 4: and interacted with and had a lot of respect for
Speaker 4: Ralston for like twenty years now or something, and covering
Speaker 4: Harry Reid, you do get this sense of like, Wow,
Speaker 4: this is an old school machine that like actually knows
Speaker 4: how to do machine politics, and so you can't the
Speaker 4: questions do you get carried away with your faith in
Speaker 4: it after Harry Reid has died, Like we don't know
Speaker 4: yet like the strength of this machine. So if he's wrong,
Speaker 4: and that from the grave Harry Reid is not able
Speaker 4: to run this machine as effectively as he was, you know,
Speaker 4: from the earth, then that could make up the couple
Speaker 4: of points that you're talking about.
Speaker 6: I'm also sort of curious about I think Republicans getting
Speaker 6: really excited about having you know, more registered Republicans turning
Speaker 6: out in some states where they've been working really hard.
Speaker 6: I mean, if you Ryan was at a Trump rally
Speaker 6: just last night, like they have the I don't know
Speaker 6: if they're still doing it, but a month ago, you know,
Speaker 6: they were doing swamp the vote too big to rig.
Speaker 5: They were pushing it really hard, and you know, part of.
Speaker 6: Me wonders if what we're seeing is just really high
Speaker 6: early voting from suburban women. So Republicans are getting excited
Speaker 6: about more registered Republican women returning their ballots early, or
Speaker 6: in areas where they expect to do well returning their
Speaker 6: ballots early. And actually it was a lot of women
Speaker 6: who weren't voting for Trump but are registered Republicans. So
Speaker 6: I don't know, like if that's the case, but I
Speaker 6: am curious about that.
Speaker 1: If Anne Selzer is even directionally correct, there is some
Speaker 1: of that going on, because she found Kamala winning something
Speaker 1: like ten percent of republic That would be the theoretical
Speaker 1: sort of like Nikki Haley voter. And the other thing
Speaker 1: that is different in Nevada this year versus other years
Speaker 1: is that they passed a law that automatically registers anyone
Speaker 1: who you know, goes the DMB gets a driver's license,
Speaker 1: and the default is that you're just registered, you know,
Speaker 1: non affiliated. And so Democrats believe a lot of those voters,
Speaker 1: because they tend to be younger, are their voters. And
Speaker 1: that's part of what factored into his analysis here too.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean he talks about how this was,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe the hardest election for him to be
Speaker 1: able to predict. So I don't think anyone would be
Speaker 1: surprised if it comes in significantly differently from this. All right,
Speaker 1: let me show you this next prediction. This is the
Speaker 1: Larry Sabateaux crystal ball no relation prediction. And again this
Speaker 1: is another I mean, he has it narrowly in favor
Speaker 1: of Kamala Harris. Basically, this is kind of like, you know,
Speaker 1: before these campaigns really started and got into full effect,
Speaker 1: this is kind of what you would predict the map
Speaker 1: would be. She holds the blue Wall, she holds Nevada
Speaker 1: where they've been consistently winning, and Trump takes everything else.
Speaker 1: And there you go. It's you know, it's narrow, but
Speaker 1: it's enough for her to be able to pull out
Speaker 1: a win. You guys have any any thoughts or reactions
Speaker 1: to this one.
Speaker 3: I think it's a very possible map.
Speaker 2: I was at around this map for a while and
Speaker 2: the real reason I bet against it with Pa and
Speaker 2: with North Carolina was some different demographic reasons, but for specifically,
Speaker 2: what this really is is a bet on you know,
Speaker 2: narrow victory in Nevada and then white over performance with
Speaker 2: seniors and with college educated voters across the Blue Wall
Speaker 2: states while losing the sun Belt. And I think it's
Speaker 2: a highly logical map. It's a bet that I would
Speaker 2: not feel uncomfortable taking in a scenario for a Harris win.
Speaker 2: It's also one which was their most plausible path to victory.
Speaker 2: I listened to an interview that David Pluff, who was
Speaker 2: the Obama two thousand and eight campaign manager, gave on CNN,
Speaker 2: and he got pretty specific. He was basically like, look,
Speaker 2: we believe this is going to be a razor tight election.
Speaker 2: We are trying to operate in a sense where there
Speaker 2: is no polling error and we could still be able
Speaker 2: to drive things out. And we see a scenario where
Speaker 2: any of the states that we win will be by
Speaker 2: point six point eight or any of that. So that's
Speaker 2: basically a bet where a Kamala victory. And if you know,
Speaker 2: in that point eight marginal victory scenario, this is what
Speaker 2: a kamal Of victory would most likely look like with
Speaker 2: no major polling error. A polling error in either direction
Speaker 2: would just be read across the board for all of them.
Speaker 1: Ryan was this your mount basically.
Speaker 7: More or less.
Speaker 4: I think I had Nevada going to Trump.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you added actually two seventy two sixty eight right,
Speaker 1: like as narrow as possible. Yep, got it all right.
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at NAT's silver it's very ying.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it says we ran eighty thousand simulations tonight, Harris
Speaker 1: one in forty thousand and twelve.
Speaker 4: So, I mean his problem is if it's garbage in,
Speaker 4: garbage out, is that's what the simulations are going to produce.
Speaker 1: That's my thing is, like he has been arguing correctly
Speaker 1: and vociferously online for like these polsters are basically just
Speaker 1: making stuff up. And it's not just the recall to
Speaker 1: twenty twenty thing. He was in this whole fight with
Speaker 1: this economist Justin Wolfers, who was like, they're taking low
Speaker 1: quality surveys, then they look at what the average is
Speaker 1: and they rig the results to match that average. But
Speaker 1: it's like, if you think that's true, then how can
Speaker 1: you justify feeding this into your model and pretending like
Speaker 1: you're getting anything approxy? You're gonna get the same, Like
Speaker 1: it's fifty to fifty. It's tied that these posters are
Speaker 1: giving so that's you know, that's the part of this
Speaker 1: is questions, what else is he supposed to do?
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, you go to war with the
Speaker 2: troops he have. I mean, it's just like what else
Speaker 2: can you do? Like there's no other option? Like he's
Speaker 2: got a decent I mean, he does attempt at scoring
Speaker 2: like a lot of those hurting ones, I think they
Speaker 2: get scored less inside. But at a certain point, you know,
Speaker 2: we only have a few people who are out there
Speaker 2: doing high quality surveys who are not doing recall to vote.
Speaker 3: And or not hurting.
Speaker 2: And even then, you know, there's a big question mark
Speaker 2: in that last New York Times Siena pol like they
Speaker 2: had it, they basically said jump ball in all of
Speaker 2: the blue wall states, where you do have to ask
Speaker 2: was that just a hurting thing because they don't want
Speaker 2: to deal with the blowback. You know, in a scenario
Speaker 2: where Donald Trump overperforms by four or five points or
Speaker 2: Harris over performs by four or five there's also just
Speaker 2: you know, like the more meta questions that we always
Speaker 2: have to confront about overresponse bias, about the makeup of
Speaker 2: the electorate, people who literally are like an entire generation
Speaker 2: now with no landline. How are they even contactable? So
Speaker 2: this will look the country changes a lot.
Speaker 1: You know, this is partly a monster of his own
Speaker 1: making because of the Polster rating that you're talking about.
Speaker 1: It's based on how close they were the actual results,
Speaker 1: which incentivizes you know, if you say it's fifty to fifty,
Speaker 1: then you're not going to be too far off any direction.
Speaker 1: And so partly the you know, I don't they didn't
Speaker 1: intend to do this, but that was partly the impact.
Speaker 1: So you know, that's why I look, yeah, it's good
Speaker 1: that he's out there arguing, like, look, all these polsters
Speaker 1: are just basically making things up. They're hurting. It would
Speaker 1: be one in nine trillion chance literally that they would
Speaker 1: be getting the results that they are. But then I
Speaker 1: think you have to factor in more humility to your
Speaker 1: own model at the end of the day, if you
Speaker 1: know that the data that's going in is basically fictional, right,
Speaker 1: in other words, vindication for Alan Lichtman and his keys
Speaker 1: right as to the keys dang yeah, also for Mudang yeah.
Speaker 3: I'll get to moodang yeah.
Speaker 4: And I got into like a famous or infamous argument
Speaker 4: with Nate silver back in twenty sixteen, and I ended
Speaker 4: up looking like a fool. But the actual point that
Speaker 4: I was trying to make is is this one right here.
Speaker 4: What I said is that, look, all of the polling
Speaker 4: models are saying that Hillary Clinton has a like ninety
Speaker 4: plus percent chance of winning, and in the last week,
Speaker 4: he was artificially pushing his number down to try to
Speaker 4: hedge for a Trump win because he felt in his
Speaker 4: gut that there was a chance that Trump might actually win.
Speaker 4: And I said in the piece, I feel like that's
Speaker 4: true too, that it seems absurd to say that there's
Speaker 4: a ninety plus percent chance that he's gonna win. But
Speaker 4: you're a polling model guy, Like, you're not a pundit.
Speaker 4: Your job is to follow your own polling model. If
Speaker 4: you don't want to do that, then go be a
Speaker 4: pundit and say this seems silly. But you can't kind
Speaker 4: of have it both ways. And so I think you're
Speaker 4: right that it's a problem of his own creation, Like
Speaker 4: he has created this idea that you can put these
Speaker 4: numbers into this machine and it's gonna spit out for
Speaker 4: you results. But then as as human beings, we look
Speaker 4: at those results and we're like, this doesn't look right.
Speaker 4: So then what was the whole point of the machine
Speaker 4: to be given was fair?
Speaker 3: That was my point.
Speaker 2: I think that's totally fair, and it does get to
Speaker 2: the whole idea of this is all human in terms
Speaker 2: like there's no sign, there is no science, you know,
Speaker 2: behind prediction. All of it comes down to human assumptions.
Speaker 2: And by the way, keep us in mind for AI
Speaker 2: and for any large like data machine or for anything,
Speaker 2: this is the case for the assumptions that are programmed
Speaker 2: into these models are what determine the model itself. And
Speaker 2: that's why people have heard here a lot about it.
Speaker 2: I actually think it's very vindicating where a lot of
Speaker 2: people just have a lot more humility around these things
Speaker 2: and just really, yeah, nobody knows anything, and that's actually fine,
Speaker 2: It's okay.
Speaker 1: I mean, the truth of the matter is that as
Speaker 1: much as Nate Silver and Alan Lichtman and his keys
Speaker 1: like fought back and forth, they're actually not doing anything
Speaker 1: different from one another.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're both.
Speaker 1: Just let you know, they have their own ideas about
Speaker 1: how to bake in the assumptions and what are the
Speaker 1: keys to the election. And you know, if you go
Speaker 1: into Name's opera, he has things like you know, the
Speaker 1: fundamentals and what's the economy and whatever? Those are all
Speaker 1: just your assumptions about how those things play into the election.
Speaker 1: And then because you have this illusion of feeding it
Speaker 1: into an impartial machine, you come out with what appears
Speaker 1: like a more scientific result. You're not actually doing anything
Speaker 1: different than Alan Lichtmann is when it comes down to it,
Speaker 1: And at least with Lichman, he puts his thumb on that.
Speaker 1: He says it's gonna be Kamala Harris. You can check
Speaker 1: whether he got a write or not. In the end,
Speaker 1: where is Nate Silver? Whichever way it goes, you can
Speaker 1: be like I told you it was fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1: You could go either way.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 1: That's funny, all right, So let's go ahead and get
Speaker 1: to the big news yesterday evening, which is that Joe
Speaker 1: Rogan Oh Moodang lined up next though it's XV famous,
Speaker 1: which is that Joe Rogan did He had Elon Musk
Speaker 1: on his podcast and then he came out and tweeted
Speaker 1: this official endorsement of Trump. Now he had had Trump
Speaker 1: on the podcast, then he had jad Vans on, and
Speaker 1: then he had Elon Musk on. Of course, Trump's biggest backer,
Speaker 1: and he says the great and powerful Elon Musk. If
Speaker 1: it wasn't for him, we'd be f't He makes what
Speaker 1: I think is the most compelling case for Trump, you'll hear,
Speaker 1: and I agree with him every step of the way.
Speaker 1: For the record, yes, that's an endorsement of Trump. Enjoy
Speaker 1: the podcast, Emily, let me hear from you on You know,
Speaker 1: what do you make of this endorsement? And you know
Speaker 1: Rogan's evolution to this position, because we've tracked some of
Speaker 1: his you know, he's previously back Bertie Sanders, his very
Speaker 1: left wing positions that he took at some point in
Speaker 1: the past. But he's clearly made a transition into both
Speaker 1: his audience and himself being more you know, solidly in
Speaker 1: the pro Trump right wing space. So what do you
Speaker 1: make of the significance both from a Rogan evolution and
Speaker 1: a political electoral impact.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I mean Republicans just on the electoral front
Speaker 6: desperately desperately need to get low propensity young male voters
Speaker 6: to turn out, so they're interpreting this as a major gift.
Speaker 6: Now will it actually be a major gift? I don't
Speaker 6: know that a bunch of people are going to turn
Speaker 6: out to the polls because Joe Rogan literally on the
Speaker 6: eve of the election, as people had already had their
Speaker 6: plans in place for the next day and all that
Speaker 6: good stuff, made his endorsement. But everything is marginal this election,
Speaker 6: so I guess Republicans maybe are clinging to that as
Speaker 6: some just something that can get young male voters actually
Speaker 6: to the polls, because they're doing better than Republicans have
Speaker 6: in I think decades with young male voters under this
Speaker 6: Trump run, so they really I mean, that's the worst
Speaker 6: demographic basically to be doing well with because it's just
Speaker 6: the lowest turnout slice of the electorate. So maybe this
Speaker 6: is motivating and animating on that front. On the second question,
Speaker 6: it's really wild to see the changes in the MAGA
Speaker 6: movement post twenty twenty because, and I know we've all
Speaker 6: talked about this before. What's happened is a lot of
Speaker 6: Silicon Valley guys have sort of stepped into the ring
Speaker 6: and become MAGA. And I don't think this changes Joe
Speaker 6: Rogan's and you guys would know better, but from my perspective,
Speaker 6: it's not a lot of people are going to be
Speaker 6: tempted to see this as mutually exclude with the Bernie ism,
Speaker 6: but there were a lot of voters that kind of
Speaker 6: had both in their heads too, back in twenty sixteen
Speaker 6: and twenty twenty, like.
Speaker 5: The Trump stuff and the Bernie stuff.
Speaker 6: And it might not be that Joe Rogan is like
Speaker 6: fully anti establishment or is fully non anti establishment, that
Speaker 6: now he's pro billionaire, pro Trump, pro all of that.
Speaker 6: He just sees it as the best shot at breaking
Speaker 6: up what the kind of swamp has come to signify
Speaker 6: and represent. So that is a totally arguable point. But
Speaker 6: I think just trying to parse his argument on behalf
Speaker 6: of Trump, it's sort of similar to some other people's Fundamentally,
Speaker 6: it's like it's still seen as the best anti establishment
Speaker 6: candidate to explode everything in DC.
Speaker 5: So that's sort of an initial reaction.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mostly agree with that. I mean, I think
Speaker 2: it's I mean, look, it's kind of interesting to see
Speaker 2: it in different directions.
Speaker 3: In a lot of ways.
Speaker 2: Joe is actually following the trend you know, in the
Speaker 2: podcast demographic. It's not a secret the podcast demographic has
Speaker 2: been trending right wing for like what three years, maybe
Speaker 2: four years?
Speaker 3: Honestly, I think of it, and I think you.
Speaker 2: Tweeted something about pop culture, and I think it's a
Speaker 2: really interesting view into the bifurcated way that we experience
Speaker 2: pop culture in twenty twenty four, where you have like
Speaker 2: Internet celebrities, Joe kind of being the king of that,
Speaker 2: the person the driver, the new Oprah quote unquote, you know,
Speaker 2: for the non mainstream, but then you also have literally
Speaker 2: Oprah on the same night, you know, giving a speech
Speaker 2: in favor of Kamala Harris. You have Hollywood the celebrity
Speaker 2: kind of establishment.
Speaker 3: Quote unquote on that side.
Speaker 2: And then I would also say that, you know, amongst
Speaker 2: the Internet celebrities, I don't think it's a secret, you know,
Speaker 2: looking around. If you look at the top twenty you
Speaker 2: know shows or whatever on Apple podcasts, probably eighteen out
Speaker 2: of twenty of them are going to be directionally right wing.
Speaker 2: So that does tell you something about the audience and
Speaker 2: about the space in which that that is both permissible
Speaker 2: and for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 3: I actually think it makes.
Speaker 2: Perfect sense because you know, in general, outside of Fox News,
Speaker 2: like being quote unquote right wing is not really acceptable
Speaker 2: or possible, and so you start your own thing on
Speaker 2: the Internet. That's also where you can have like literally
Speaker 2: the ability to congregate without a gatekeeper, which is predominantly
Speaker 2: more friendly to the establishment left. And so Joe has
Speaker 2: been now a part of this for several years. If
Speaker 2: you track his like ideological evolution, I don't think it's
Speaker 2: all that like surprising if you look at the politicians
Speaker 2: people like he likes, like Tulsey Gabbard and others. Who
Speaker 2: is now literally a Republican calls She's like, I became
Speaker 2: a Republican campaigning for Donald Trump for RFK Junior, who
Speaker 2: has now endorsed Donald Trump and is urging people to
Speaker 2: vote for him. So this is like an ideological valance
Speaker 2: which has been present there for quite a long time.
Speaker 2: And if anything, he's very late to it because, like
Speaker 2: you said, Emily, you know twenty I mean when did
Speaker 2: it drop? Yeah, eight forty five pm last night. So
Speaker 2: it's not like this is going to be top of
Speaker 2: mind for people who are organizing or anything. It's an
Speaker 2: in seeing cultural like demarcation point to me, because it
Speaker 2: is just like the final apotheosis of what I think
Speaker 2: a lot of the podcast audience, demographic, et cetera. It
Speaker 2: all began with Dave Portnoy in twenty fifteen, and secular
Speaker 2: conservatism kind of crowns itself here today with a Rogan endorsement.
Speaker 6: Can I just say, like, I don't think this is
Speaker 6: durable beyond Trump, Like that's another thing.
Speaker 3: I mean, solutely yes, sobsolutely.
Speaker 1: About that, because I think it depends. I mean, Rogan
Speaker 1: loved JD Vance.
Speaker 2: But that was the JD talking about trans that was
Speaker 2: not fantas right. But that's JD talking about trans, not
Speaker 2: JD talking about abortion.
Speaker 3: And that's where things got a little bit testy.
Speaker 1: Like I don't know, I mean, I just like Joe's
Speaker 1: top issues that he talks the most about are like
Speaker 1: anti wokeism and trans stuff and immigration and immigration and
Speaker 1: like that being anti vax which there was a funny
Speaker 1: part of a conversation with you one where they're talking
Speaker 1: about that. It's like Trump is the person who did
Speaker 1: Operation Warp speed and coke but whatever, Like I understand
Speaker 1: all of that is right when godd but it's just
Speaker 1: a funny, funny note. So I don't think I really
Speaker 1: agree with that, because I do. I think he and
Speaker 1: you know, most of the people in that ecosystem, like
Speaker 1: they just have pretty conventional Republican views at this point,
Speaker 1: I don't.
Speaker 3: Think so, Like here, why did he like Ron DeSantis, covid.
Speaker 1: An and covid whoa right, but it likes Jad because
Speaker 1: I don't know, like because he can And these are
Speaker 1: all very different, like sort of ideological flavors within the
Speaker 1: Republican movement. So I you know, yeah, I think that
Speaker 1: these fears are just like they're just a Republican.
Speaker 3: But I don't see.
Speaker 2: That's that's why I would disagree. For example, put Ron
Speaker 2: Johnson on there. You think Joe is gonna like him?
Speaker 2: I don't think so.
Speaker 1: Or what Ron Johnson's not running for president certainly.
Speaker 3: But whoever.
Speaker 2: I mean, But this is this is kind of like
Speaker 2: the big thing that goes into this is a concern
Speaker 2: vatism quote unquote or Republican party which can appeal to
Speaker 2: the secular, you know, kind of libertarian mail is mutually
Speaker 2: exclusive from a conservatism of Mitch McConnell, Ron Johnson or
Speaker 2: any of these other folks. I think it's quite clear
Speaker 2: what is one out under Donald Trump. But the big
Speaker 2: question is if Donald Trump goes down, right, if Trump
Speaker 2: goes down tomorrow or today at the ballot box, then
Speaker 2: there's going to be a big fight and.
Speaker 3: A lot of a lot of the strategy will get
Speaker 3: blamed here.
Speaker 1: I mean, policy wise, I just don't see Trump as
Speaker 1: being really different from the Mitch McConnell's of the world
Speaker 1: or whatever. Right, I think you're running around and talking
Speaker 1: about cutting two trillion dollars from the government. He wants
Speaker 1: to put Mike Pompeio back in the cabinet. Like I
Speaker 1: just there's a stylistic difference.
Speaker 4: Sure, that's a key point though, but I think what
Speaker 4: I think what you're missing is that though so the
Speaker 4: real we all see that the realignment is happening between
Speaker 4: the two parties, and one thing that that realignment is
Speaker 4: going to bring is it's going to turn the Republican
Speaker 4: Party into a part into a coalition party, way that
Speaker 4: the Democratic Party previously, you know, for the last forty
Speaker 4: years or more, has been this party of coalitions, where
Speaker 4: the Republican Party was more of kind of a uniform
Speaker 4: party that had people who had the same interest same genders,
Speaker 4: same well not same gender, but same race.
Speaker 1: As many instances, yes now.
Speaker 4: Now and right increasingly so, and so now the Republicans
Speaker 4: are going to it's going to be a confusing process
Speaker 4: for them because they're like, wait a minute, we don't
Speaker 4: all actually agree on all of these things, yet we're
Speaker 4: all part of the same coalition. And so how does
Speaker 4: the Rogan kind of faction of the coalition fit in
Speaker 4: with the kind of evangelical faction of the coalition which
Speaker 4: agrees on some things but disagrees on others. And that's so,
Speaker 4: but doesn't mean you can't put together a party in
Speaker 4: a two party system.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the entire the tent that holds the GOP together
Speaker 2: is hating the left and specifically hating ideological like leftism
Speaker 2: in all of its forms. That's the only thing that
Speaker 2: unites a Tulsa Gabbard and what like Tom Cotton right.
Speaker 2: And so that's the key of the Rogan podcast. You know,
Speaker 2: male demographic is that they hate the left and they
Speaker 2: hate the higher institutions of culture and they're really going
Speaker 2: to give a shit. And Crystal, I don't disagree with
Speaker 2: you when you're talking about the policy.
Speaker 1: No matter who is at the head of the Republican Party,
Speaker 1: that's still going to be the case.
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm seeing again if a Trump goes.
Speaker 1: Down not going out of style anytime soon.
Speaker 2: I can only say inshallah to what you just said, Crystal,
Speaker 2: But I do worry that if you know, like, for example,
Speaker 2: I think that if Trump goes down big, let's say
Speaker 2: a Harris Landslide, a lot of this podcast bro energy,
Speaker 2: like no Republican is going to be courting shit like that. Ever, again,
Speaker 2: they're going to have to take big lessons away from
Speaker 2: suburban win.
Speaker 3: If anything, you're going to see opposite.
Speaker 2: You're going to see a lot of these people going on
Speaker 2: the View and going on Oprah trying to like beg
Speaker 2: these ladies to come back and to vote for them.
Speaker 3: I mean.
Speaker 2: But the other side is so that Trump does win big,
Speaker 2: then you are going to see a lot more of
Speaker 2: you know, you've had John Fetterman go on the podcast
Speaker 2: with Joe. I think you will see you know, Pete Boudage, Edger,
Speaker 2: whoever you know, didn't Boodo Jet just go on what
Speaker 2: you call it Jubilee right like he knows what time
Speaker 2: it is.
Speaker 3: He's a smart guy.
Speaker 2: He can he can see where the trend is going
Speaker 2: the future primary. You will have the Gavin Newsom's and
Speaker 2: all these other people go on Joe. I actually think
Speaker 2: Gavin would do an incredible job on Joe Rogan, which
Speaker 2: is crazy thing to say because I know that Joe
Speaker 2: hates him, but he's a masterful, skilled wordsmith politician, and
Speaker 2: so this is, uh, I'm curious to see how it
Speaker 2: shakes out, entirely dependent on the result of what happens
Speaker 2: and where things go.
Speaker 6: I was gonna just quickly say on the pop culture
Speaker 6: point this, it's not silly to remember that the days
Speaker 6: of like Sea Pack people like freaking out because they
Speaker 6: had celebrities. And by celebrities, I mean Kid Rock. I'm sorry,
Speaker 6: I mean Ted Nugent and right, Kid Rock's a bona
Speaker 6: fide celebrity, but I mean like washed up Ted Nugent
Speaker 6: and Kelsey Grammer or something like that, right, And so
Speaker 6: it's just looking back to twenty sixteen and looking now,
Speaker 6: it's everything is shattered, like it feels this is though, Uh,
Speaker 6: the all we have like monoculture.
Speaker 5: I think we all know this is completely shattering.
Speaker 6: And what that's meant is more mainstream people like more
Speaker 6: people in the quote unquote mainstream because the mainstream is
Speaker 6: just bigger, and that has meant some inroads for Republicans
Speaker 6: with popular in popular popular culture. But does that translate
Speaker 6: outside of Trump and JD. Vance as Trump's running mate.
Speaker 6: I don't know, maybe it does.
Speaker 5: I think it was a kind of interesting conversation.
Speaker 1: My point is just like, I don't think that the
Speaker 1: whether politicians this election will really be a verdict if
Speaker 1: in the near term Republican politicians once again kind of
Speaker 1: bet the farm on the bro s fear podcast world.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 1: I do not think the brose fear podcast world is
Speaker 1: going back to being like dem or lib curious. I
Speaker 1: think that's definitely not Like that's what I'm saying. They're
Speaker 1: they're republic like, they're just Republicans now. Their views fit
Speaker 1: very neatly into the broader Republican like coalition, and I
Speaker 1: don't I don't see that changing, Like I to me,
Speaker 1: the Rogan endorsement is like the final you know, it's
Speaker 1: like the crown jewel of Trump's bro podcast strategy coming
Speaker 1: on the night before the election, and you know, and
Speaker 1: so it will be the election will in some ways
Speaker 1: be a real verdict on how ultimately consequential that strategy was.
Speaker 2: Absolutely maybe this is one of the reasons I'm laying
Speaker 2: the groundwork for if there's a big Trump loss. Is
Speaker 2: a lot of it, and people should remember this. Look
Speaker 2: like anti establishment is not always loved by people who
Speaker 2: like the establishment. In fact, there's a lot of women
Speaker 2: and people out there who if you ever showed them,
Speaker 2: you know, a comedy set of Andrew Schultz or a
Speaker 2: Theo von or of a Rogan or any others Day
Speaker 2: or Tony Hinchcliff, they would really hate it. And so
Speaker 2: that's a question too about who those people are. The
Speaker 2: people who love Oprah or The View or the Today
Speaker 2: Show or Good Morning America, those people vote, you know,
Speaker 2: possibly just as much.
Speaker 3: So it was a big risk.
Speaker 2: I mean, it was a titanic risk really to be
Speaker 2: the bet the farm on this. But again the question
Speaker 2: too is you're not wrong, Crystal that they'll be Republicans.
Speaker 2: But there's also an energy level to this, like for example,
Speaker 2: Kumaru Usman, who is one of the greatest fighters in
Speaker 2: the UFC, came out and endorsed Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: I just don't.
Speaker 2: Really see him ever doing that for Glenn Youngkin or
Speaker 2: maybe even honestly like a jd Vance like yeah, or
Speaker 2: Jake Paul or Logan Paul or I mean, I'm trying
Speaker 2: to think all the bodybuilders you know that I follow
Speaker 2: on Instagram. Trump is a deeply unique cultural figure in
Speaker 2: a way that is like like psychologically very different than
Speaker 2: a lot of these other folks. Dana White, you know,
Speaker 2: look at him, and his friendship with Donald Trump was
Speaker 2: a huge engine, you know, behind a.
Speaker 3: Lot of this.
Speaker 2: In fact, if it does work out, Dana will be
Speaker 2: probably more responsible for this than anyone else him, his
Speaker 2: friendship with Donald Trump Junior and his ability you know,
Speaker 2: you know, Joe even said on his podcast with Trump
Speaker 2: the number one reason he's doing this because of Dana White. Well,
Speaker 2: Dana White go to bat for traditional or even like
Speaker 2: whatever comes next after Trump. I'm not so sure, to
Speaker 2: be honest, I don't.
Speaker 3: Really think so.
Speaker 2: And so that's why Trump is just such He's so
Speaker 2: so unique in his ability. So will they always be
Speaker 2: right wing? Will they always hate the left? Absolutely? But
Speaker 2: will they be as galvanized as united you know, around Trump?
Speaker 2: I don't think so, not in the current way.
Speaker 1: Well we'll see. I just these guys loved Ron DeSantis
Speaker 1: five seconds ago. Yeah, yes, So it's not like there
Speaker 1: was aren't other Republican figures out there that they're also
Speaker 1: really excited about. It's just my point.
Speaker 2: But Santas also, let's be honest, the guy kind of sucks, right,
Speaker 2: So it's like when you get reality Santas, like what
Speaker 2: it is compared to Trump.
Speaker 3: That's a whole other ballgame.
Speaker 4: One other point that might be obvious, but I think
Speaker 4: worth making before we move on. And I have a
Speaker 4: section of this in my book on the Squad about
Speaker 4: the moment when Rogan endorsed Bernie Sanders in that weird
Speaker 4: interview with Barry Weiss. Yeah, I'm voting for me. He's
Speaker 4: been consistent, he's and like lays out like the reason
Speaker 4: he loves Bernie Sanders. The reaction from the Democratic Party
Speaker 4: kind of set a course that we're on today, Like
Speaker 4: that was a moment of agency where a different kind
Speaker 4: of party, in a different moment, less kind of consumed
Speaker 4: by identity politics at the time, could have embraced Joe
Speaker 4: Rogan and his entire coalition at that time and said,
Speaker 4: we don't agree with everything that Rogan believes, but he
Speaker 4: agrees with us eighty percent of the time. So we're
Speaker 4: bringing him in and we're going to build a coalition here.
Speaker 4: And if you even have half the bros fear like
Speaker 4: the Democrats are, you know, have an extra couple point
Speaker 4: advantage long term, the long term trajectory of losing young men,
Speaker 4: you know, it's going to add up over the years,
Speaker 4: and it all goes back to this deeply emotional moment.
Speaker 4: You know, Rogan said, I'm never getting involved in politics again.
Speaker 4: Like I think a lot of his like hostility towards
Speaker 4: wokeism was ramped up in that moment and still fuels
Speaker 4: his politics today.
Speaker 3: And then Gasoline Port on that by Covid.
Speaker 2: I don't disagree. I think that's totally right. I'm not
Speaker 2: so much. I don't know if there was much you
Speaker 2: could do about it, to be honest, because we're talking
Speaker 2: about like way bigger cultural figure or like way bigger
Speaker 2: cultural shifts that have happened in the higher like commanding
Speaker 2: heights of culture than just Rogan or not.
Speaker 3: You knows, that's why I met.
Speaker 2: That's why I met in terms of he's following the
Speaker 2: trend right by coming in this late like everyone else
Speaker 2: is just pro Trump, like Patrick, Bette, David and all
Speaker 2: these other these guys have built massive channels they I
Speaker 2: mean think about it, like in terms of how big
Speaker 2: they are relative to even four years ago, of how
Speaker 2: gigantic the trend has come. So you know, that's why
Speaker 2: it makes sense logically to me, because the mill you
Speaker 2: the Rogan is swimming in of UFC and all these
Speaker 2: these people have been wearing MAGA hats for three years.
Speaker 2: It's sometime ten years, you know, in case of like
Speaker 2: Dana White. So I don't know. I'm not so sure
Speaker 2: that there was anything to be done about this. I
Speaker 2: think way more of it has to do with just
Speaker 2: mainstream media, with the broader like culture and with everything.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't know. Clearly, we have a lot
Speaker 3: to say about it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this will be I think this will be
Speaker 1: one of the conversations that will continue, you know, kind
Speaker 1: of will be shaped by what happens tonight for sure,
Speaker 1: when we see how successful this strategy ends up being.
Speaker 1: I can just show you guys if you want. I've
Speaker 1: got the Trump reaction to learning that Joe Rogan endorsed
Speaker 1: him from last night. I think this was that was
Speaker 1: this at his final rally.
Speaker 3: I'm not grand Rapids.
Speaker 1: It was the one before the one was Okay, Ryan
Speaker 1: went to one of Trump's rallies yesterday. Just quickly, Ryan,
Speaker 1: give us a give us a vibe check on on
Speaker 1: the how the rally was.
Speaker 4: So it was it was pretty low energy and Trump
Speaker 4: didn't really rile folks up. But you know it's in Reading, Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4: He had he had been in Reading a month earlier.
Speaker 4: He was in nearby Allentown like a week earlier. If
Speaker 4: you're a Trump supporter and you want to see Trump, like,
Speaker 4: you've had scores, like maybe one hundred plus chances in
Speaker 4: the Redding area to see him over the last nine years.
Speaker 4: So I don't want to discount his his potential just
Speaker 4: based on that. But yeah, there's a bunch of old
Speaker 4: people who've been sitting there for four hours waiting for him,
Speaker 4: and so it's not surprising that they couldn't get whipped
Speaker 4: too much of.
Speaker 1: Any may not even be advisable.
Speaker 3: To what he did.
Speaker 4: He rocked out to Y m c A. And you
Speaker 4: know he did the whole whole show you his dance.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's let's take a listen to Trump learning on
Speaker 1: stage that Rogan indors.
Speaker 7: Oh wow, I have some bigs, Megan. I'm just getting
Speaker 7: this right now. So somebody that's very very respected show
Speaker 7: two weeks ago, and I said, why not? And to
Speaker 7: me it's very big because he's, uh, the biggest there is,
Speaker 7: I guess in that world by far. Somebody said, the
Speaker 7: biggest beyond anybody in a long time and his name
Speaker 7: is Joe Rogan and he's never done this before. And
Speaker 7: it just came over the wires that Joe Rogan just
Speaker 7: indorsed me.
Speaker 8: Is that that's so nice.
Speaker 3: And he doesn't do that.
Speaker 5: He doesn't do that, and he tends to.
Speaker 7: Be a little bit more liberal than some of the
Speaker 7: people in this No. I had a lot of fun
Speaker 7: and he was amazing and he was It was a
Speaker 7: three hour interview.
Speaker 1: In fact, I was two.
Speaker 7: Hours late for a rally that we had had explained
Speaker 7: that a little bit and it was cold out that night.
Speaker 7: We flew and I but we had to make it.
Speaker 7: We were two more than two hours late. And they understood.
Speaker 7: I said, you know, I just was interviewed by a
Speaker 7: very interesting guy and he just kept going on. They
Speaker 7: called it long form, and it could have gone a
Speaker 7: lot longer.
Speaker 1: But he was right.
Speaker 7: And he's not a person that does endorsements, but he
Speaker 7: did it endorsements. So I just want to thank Joe Rogan.
Speaker 1: That spans there you go, Ryan. One thing. I saw
Speaker 1: a couple of people who were at like reporters who
Speaker 1: are at Trump rallies, detecting a bit of a wistful
Speaker 1: tone because obviously this could be you know, very likely
Speaker 1: we're the last Trump rallies that we'll ever see, which is,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of the end of a very specific
Speaker 1: and very tumultuous era in American politics. Did you pick
Speaker 1: up on any of that?
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, he was withful. He's like, you know, guys,
Speaker 4: we've been doing this for nine years now. Think about that.
Speaker 4: I think he counted something like nine hundred rallies.
Speaker 7: Wow.
Speaker 4: And he said, you know, and then his quip there
Speaker 4: was He's like, and I've always been, you know, very
Speaker 4: well behaved. Once or twice, I may have made a
Speaker 4: slightly aggressive statement, and the fake news media has called
Speaker 4: me out on it, but in general, I've been I've
Speaker 4: been perfect.
Speaker 3: They've been perfect rallies, perfect rallies, perfect phone calls, perfect.
Speaker 4: Perfect, perfect. And then he said, you know, it's this
Speaker 4: is not an end. It's it's beginning and we'll be back,
Speaker 4: but we'll be talking about, you know, our achievements and
Speaker 4: what we've what we've accomplished. And people in the crowd
Speaker 4: are yelling out, we'll see you at the inauguration. So yeah,
Speaker 4: the waterworks were flowing and reading no doubt.
Speaker 1: About it, gotcha right, well, Trump was not the only
Speaker 1: one receiving a Big Joe endorsement. Yes, Tamala Harris also
Speaker 1: receiving the endorsement of Fat Joe actually who I believe
Speaker 1: is Puerto Rican and spoke about the Tony Hinchcliff comments
Speaker 1: and made an appeal specifically to Latino voters. Let's take
Speaker 1: a listen to that.
Speaker 9: I really want you to feel the moment. I am
Speaker 9: a sucker for a good laugh. I'm the guy they
Speaker 9: throw out the movie theater because the movie's too funny
Speaker 9: and I'm making too much noise. I'm the guy that
Speaker 9: you can roast me in the comedy club and I
Speaker 9: will laugh with you all the way out. The other
Speaker 9: day in Madison Square Garden, that was no joke, Ladies
Speaker 9: and gentlemen, that was no joke. And it was filled
Speaker 9: with so much hate, Hatred of Jewish people, hatred of
Speaker 9: black people, garving watermelons, calling Puerto Rico in the island
Speaker 9: of garbage, my Latinos, where is your pride?
Speaker 1: So you get a sense of that, I will tell
Speaker 1: I mean this is kind of you know, contrast to
Speaker 1: the the Republican closing strategy. Democrats genuinely feel that the
Speaker 1: Madison Square Garden rally was a bit of a turning
Speaker 1: point in terms of late breaking voters going for them
Speaker 1: a Latino voters in particular, but voters in general. There
Speaker 1: is significant decent amount of data that says, for whatever reason,
Speaker 1: late breaking voters do seem to be going more formal.
Speaker 1: Harris will find out tonight how true that ultimately is.
Speaker 1: I texted our friend Chuck Roache yesterday to say, you know,
Speaker 1: this is a real thing, and he's like, one hundred percent,
Speaker 1: this is definitely a real thing. And the sense was
Speaker 1: it was kind of like a final straw for voters,
Speaker 1: reminding them of some of the worst parts of Trump
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. So they're leaning in hard to this
Speaker 1: final strategy and reminding people of, you know, some of
Speaker 1: the more noxious or toxic traits of Trump that have
Speaker 1: made him unpopular over the years.
Speaker 2: Yea.
Speaker 4: And anecdotally, for whatever this is worth, my stepmother and
Speaker 4: sister were in voted in Allentown yesterday and said that
Speaker 4: like it was mostly Puerto Ricans in line to vote.
Speaker 3: Now Puerto Rican population, it.
Speaker 4: Would be probably a third Puerto Rican like normally anyway,
Speaker 4: it's you know, sixty percent population roughly in Allentown. You know,
Speaker 4: but are they showing up late and deciding to vote?
Speaker 4: Because because of this, the Democrats certainly think that that
Speaker 4: it has gotten some people to vote who otherwise would
Speaker 4: not have voted. Like it's not as if they were
Speaker 4: like Trump and now they're Kamala, or they were like
Speaker 4: on the fence and now they're Kamala. It was like
Speaker 4: they were they were the classic voter of the choice
Speaker 4: is not who you're going to vote for us whether
Speaker 4: or not you actually decide to vote now they have
Speaker 4: a reason to.
Speaker 2: It's the couch that would actually make more sense to
Speaker 2: me than like people who are swishing right.
Speaker 3: Who was the guy that we was?
Speaker 2: It like, I forget there was the artist who had
Speaker 2: already endorsed Trump, and he's like now I cannot stand.
Speaker 3: With I'm just like, bro, shut shut the fuck up.
Speaker 2: You know, it's like you know exactly what you're getting
Speaker 2: into first time.
Speaker 3: I don't remember who his name is, Nick.
Speaker 1: Jam, Nicky Jam Jam.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I apologize, Jam, but it's like, bro, like, I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: zero respect. Yeah for that idea of somebody who was
Speaker 2: not voting and then decided to vote. That makes actually
Speaker 2: a little bit more sense to me in terms of
Speaker 2: the overall turnout. But you know, part of the reason
Speaker 2: why I'm just so skeptical of all of this is
Speaker 2: I just feel like if Kamala wins is going to
Speaker 2: come down to a huge poling error like we see
Speaker 2: with the Iowa Seltzer pole, and the vast majority of
Speaker 2: it will be abortion right. And you know, in the
Speaker 2: scenario even where she does win in the blue wall, like,
Speaker 2: it's not like there's a ton of Puerto Ricans who
Speaker 2: live in Michigan and Wisconsin. Like, it's going to be
Speaker 2: white women who really push you over the end.
Speaker 3: Now they know.
Speaker 2: Look, it's highly possible a white ladies get very offended
Speaker 2: by this, like I was talking about earlier, No, I
Speaker 2: needed like statistically the most likely to get offended by it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely.
Speaker 3: And so that is the way I would, you know,
Speaker 3: kind of look at it.
Speaker 2: But that's where Trump's affect and character and all this stuff,
Speaker 2: where these people were probably just voting anyways and couldn't
Speaker 2: wait to go and to vote against him.
Speaker 3: So we'll see. I don't know, I'm still curious.
Speaker 1: Okay, guys, so we took you through these supposedly scientific
Speaker 1: election prediction models. But the reality is they all are
Speaker 1: just like it's a toss up, it's fifty to fifty.
Speaker 1: So we thought we would give you some of the
Speaker 1: less scientific election prediction models that you know, don't even
Speaker 1: have a semblance of a mirror of anything you know,
Speaker 1: real to them, but people still look at them, and
Speaker 1: some of them have a pretty good track record. So
Speaker 1: we'll start with this one. There was a panda, sorry,
Speaker 1: not a panda, a hippo that became very famous. I
Speaker 1: was not.
Speaker 3: Actual he canceled this.
Speaker 1: I was actually not familiar with this baby hippo.
Speaker 3: With mood Yeah, with mood very popular.
Speaker 1: But she's apparently very popular. And they had her pick
Speaker 1: from two cakes, one that said Kamala Harris and the
Speaker 1: other that said Donald Trump and drumroll please moodang went
Speaker 1: for the Trump cake. Now, I have seen that the
Speaker 1: conventional wisdom is that that would indicate a Trump win. However,
Speaker 1: I have seen the contrarian cake that eating the Trump cake,
Speaker 1: which she's really signaling is she wants to eat the
Speaker 1: rich and she actually a secret Kamala Harris fan.
Speaker 3: Very possible.
Speaker 2: And what did they say there that they they're the
Speaker 2: conspiracy is that there was a bigger piece of dragon
Speaker 2: fruit that was.
Speaker 3: On the on the cake, and that's.
Speaker 1: What so they raised it.
Speaker 3: It's certainly possible.
Speaker 2: Listen, if you ever been to Thailand, dragon fruit is
Speaker 2: the ship whenever it is fresh. So yeah, shout out
Speaker 2: to Moodang. I no disrespect for choosing that cake. It
Speaker 2: was funny though, this one I've seen go viral everywhere now.
Speaker 1: Ryan asked, Ryan asked, what was before we did them?
Speaker 3: And I was like, well, mood Egg's a baby four.
Speaker 1: Months old, I think so, so she's perfect.
Speaker 2: She never got it.
Speaker 5: All right.
Speaker 1: In addition, we have a superstition about what's called the
Speaker 1: Redskins rule. Of course, now the Redskins are the Commanders,
Speaker 1: but for a long time there was a relationship between
Speaker 1: did the Redskins whin they're final home game and who
Speaker 1: ultimately took the White House. So actually in the last
Speaker 1: Commander's home game, it was against the Bears, and I
Speaker 1: don't know if you guys saw, even as like not
Speaker 1: a big sports person, I saw this unbelievable touchdown pass,
Speaker 1: crazy hail Mary, the clocks expired, etc. To launch them
Speaker 1: to a victory over the Bears. However, there's a catch
Speaker 1: which is that apparently literally they have recently revised the
Speaker 1: Redskins Rule to be the Redskins Rule two point zero
Speaker 1: because it like stopped being predictive sometime in the two thousands.
Speaker 1: They were like, actually, now it's flipped, and if the
Speaker 1: Redskins win, then the party in power is gonna lose.
Speaker 1: So I sort of rate this one a toss up
Speaker 1: at this point.
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I don't even know what to say about that.
Speaker 2: You could also read it as fifty to fifty because
Speaker 2: the Bears had basically won the game up until the
Speaker 2: very last second whenever they threw the Hail Mary.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't know the game.
Speaker 1: It could be.
Speaker 3: That could be it.
Speaker 1: We could look back at that and say, you know what,
Speaker 1: that actually perfectly predicted what we're going to see on
Speaker 1: election day. This one I had heard about before. There's
Speaker 1: this monogram shop in East Hampton, New York that sells
Speaker 1: cups of the different presidential contenders, and so they look
Speaker 1: at like which candidate sells the most cups and then
Speaker 1: not supposed to be predictive. I don't actually have what
Speaker 1: the record here of how accurate this has been. I
Speaker 1: think it's been decently accurate though, and they found that
Speaker 1: the Harris cups have been out selling the Trump cups
Speaker 1: pretty significantly, most recently. Oh this is this the Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is the monogram East Hampton.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Isn't this like one of the wealthiest neighborhoods like in
Speaker 2: New York?
Speaker 3: Isn't this like Long Island?
Speaker 1: Think that this is extremely predictive soccer, Like I dare you?
Speaker 3: Okay, do we even.
Speaker 1: Know how to turn the keys?
Speaker 2: That's like going to Nantucket and being like, oh the
Speaker 2: Nantucket shop is it going big for comma?
Speaker 3: I'm like, wow, reallynoy So.
Speaker 1: I think they predicted Trump over Hillary. I think in
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen.
Speaker 5: Oh so, how.
Speaker 2: Many those people are buying Trump is a lark? See
Speaker 2: that's the other problem with Trump. Trump isually a memeable figure.
Speaker 2: We're about to get to Halloween masks right where.
Speaker 1: Yes, so this is This is another interesting one because
Speaker 1: so traditionally the Halloween mask predictor is which candidate should
Speaker 1: sells more Halloween masks from Spirit Halloween? Like, who how
Speaker 1: many people buy which candidate's masks? I couldn't find that
Speaker 1: data this year, even though I've seen it every other election.
Speaker 1: But the number one costume was apparently the crazy cat
Speaker 1: Lady costume.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that tracks.
Speaker 1: So what do we make is that?
Speaker 4: Is that a pro common commo nominated too lately to
Speaker 4: get those to get those masks shipped from China.
Speaker 3: Yeah, good point.
Speaker 1: Oh, that probably is what happened, right, That lady thing
Speaker 1: has hit in a degree which is like insane to me.
Speaker 2: So like in my neighborhood here there's literally the lady
Speaker 2: two doors down as a childless cat lity for Kamala
Speaker 2: sign in her window, and our local cat cafe is
Speaker 2: selling merch.
Speaker 3: That's like childless cat ladies for Kamala.
Speaker 1: Harris so Keaylor Swift referenced it in her Taylor.
Speaker 2: Swift references in her endorsement. So did Jennifer Aniston. There's
Speaker 2: a lot you could say about that, but yeah, it
Speaker 2: certainly it certainly hit else just's put it that way.
Speaker 1: So you would say that's that's a pro Kamala sign
Speaker 1: because I was going to be a toss up because
Speaker 1: it's a little ambiguous.
Speaker 3: No, No, it's pro Kammala.
Speaker 1: This is hit there too.
Speaker 6: I can combine the last two. I think it's pro Kamala.
Speaker 6: I think that's a positive sign for Kamala. I was
Speaker 6: on a flight about a month ago and there was
Speaker 6: a woman who seemed absolutely bananas while we were the
Speaker 6: flight was delayed and she started doing her workouts.
Speaker 5: Was elderly. She started doing her workouts at.
Speaker 6: The gate, full like lunging, all kinds of stuff, just
Speaker 6: going for it. She was wearing a childless cat Ladies
Speaker 6: for Kamala shirt.
Speaker 5: And I know what's going on here. Get on the flight.
Speaker 5: She was in first class. She was in first So
Speaker 5: you find the two of them, Yes, East Hampton.
Speaker 1: All it all adds up. It's a landslide, all right.
Speaker 1: Next one, we've got the S and P five hundred index.
Speaker 1: And if it's they say, if it's up between August
Speaker 1: and November, and come at parties likely to keep the
Speaker 1: White House. This one is a good metric for Kamala. However,
Speaker 1: candidate height, which was indicative in eighteen or the last
Speaker 1: twenty four elections, would indicate a Trump landslide Becausekamala is actually.
Speaker 3: Quite Yeah, she's short.
Speaker 1: Short, she's five foot four and what is Trumple's like
Speaker 1: six three? Yeah, well short, large, Emily, that's all.
Speaker 3: I think she would be our shortest president.
Speaker 1: Now, Yeah, you know, I think that might.
Speaker 2: Be right, James James Monroe was like five. Sorry, she
Speaker 2: might be slightly taller than Monroe.
Speaker 1: They talked about the Redskins rule here, but then they
Speaker 1: also talk about this bakery, Buskin Bakery in Ohio that's
Speaker 1: predicted almost every presidential election correctly since eighty four through
Speaker 1: cookie sales. Team. You guys tell how much research I've
Speaker 1: put into Yes, and they have Trump way up. But
Speaker 1: a confounding variable I have to say is that Elon
Speaker 1: did tweet about this bakery and so on Monday the
Speaker 1: cookie count was roughly eleven thousand for Harris and roughly
Speaker 1: thirty thousand for Trump. So landslide for Trump in that
Speaker 1: particular count, all.
Speaker 4: Right, does show that Elon, you know, translates IRL.
Speaker 1: So there you go. That can mean something translates to
Speaker 1: cookie sales. I guess that's true. Okay, this is an
Speaker 1: interesting one. This one actually might be somewhat interesting to
Speaker 1: look at. This is the stock performance of the DJT
Speaker 1: like the Truth Social stock, and at the you know,
Speaker 1: when Trump was at his most confident, it was very high.
Speaker 1: Then there was a period of decline, but there has
Speaker 1: been a rebound recently. So you know, again I feel
Speaker 1: like this is a little bit of an ambiguous indicator
Speaker 1: of what could potentially happen on election day, but could
Speaker 1: reflect how people genuinely think about, like, you know, how
Speaker 1: are things going to go for Trump here on the election?
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely people have been looking at that as like
Speaker 2: an inverse for how things are going to go. At
Speaker 2: the same time, didn't Jim Kramer say that there's been
Speaker 2: some pro Harris trading that's been happening. But then there's
Speaker 2: also inverse Kramer where you're like, oh, no, that's really
Speaker 2: bad from Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought that up, because here we go.
Speaker 1: Jim Kramer says marketing action anticipate to Harris wind, which
Speaker 1: is devastating for her.
Speaker 3: Yes, there you go. Inverse Kramer never met against it.
Speaker 1: And the last one I have for you guys is
Speaker 1: the Alan Lichtman. Yep, the keys. He turned the keys.
Speaker 1: He says that Kamala Harris will be the next president
Speaker 1: of the United States. So you know, he likes to
Speaker 1: teut his track record. They say, correctly predicted nine of
Speaker 1: last ten. I think he claims he predicted all of
Speaker 1: the last ten, but some of them was like, oh,
Speaker 1: I got the popular vote, right, but that the elector
Speaker 1: was something like, he's got what did he hope around
Speaker 1: some of these?
Speaker 3: Which one did he miss?
Speaker 5: Then?
Speaker 3: But he did call Trump in twenty sixteen, right, he
Speaker 3: did call.
Speaker 1: Trump in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 4: Yes, I'm not sure what two thousand, Maybe that's the
Speaker 4: one he I think.
Speaker 1: It might be two thousand that he called for Gore,
Speaker 1: which or did win. But yeah, I think it might
Speaker 1: be that one. So still I'm willing to give him
Speaker 1: that one.
Speaker 4: I feel like this should be single elimination. Like you
Speaker 4: don't get to say you've got nine out of ten, yeah,
Speaker 4: because it's once every four years you got one job,
Speaker 4: you miss one, you're done.
Speaker 1: That's right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you.
Speaker 1: So there you go. Guys.
Speaker 4: The hippo better take notes, that's right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, could be one and done for her man.
Speaker 5: What's the life span of a hippo?
Speaker 4: I got two hundred years or.
Speaker 1: Because when I was researching these yesterday, a lot of
Speaker 1: things came up in twenty sixteen or fifty that no
Speaker 1: one ever talked about again. Yeah yes, yeah, right, profit
Speaker 1: monkey or something like that, and you never heard of
Speaker 1: it again because I guess it got it wrong and
Speaker 1: let's to your point where like over one single elimination,
Speaker 1: you can't get it wrong, and especially that particular election,
Speaker 1: that was your time to shine and go against conventional wisdom.
Speaker 1: And if you're the profit monkey and you picked Hillary,
Speaker 1: like sorry, that's it all right, that's in Asia. So guys,
Speaker 1: we'll be doing live stream tonight six thirty. We'll be
Speaker 1: there till I don't know when. It's gonna be fun
Speaker 1: and we've got a logan, it's gonna be in the studio.
Speaker 1: We've got the decision dusk HQ data there. They usually
Speaker 1: are the fastest with updates and calls. They're really excited
Speaker 1: to have that resource available to us, and of course
Speaker 1: we will all be there trying to figure out what
Speaker 1: the hell is going on, what the world's going to
Speaker 1: look like tomorrow.
Speaker 3: So it's exciting.
Speaker 2: We'll see you guys is then indeed, enjoy the day
Speaker 2: y'allah