Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at
Speaker 1: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak
Speaker 1: anchors all around the world. Answers Dan on the program,
Speaker 1: Here comes the FED meeting and the US jobs reporting.
Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker in New York. I'm Stephen Karen in London.
Speaker 1: With a new government just pushed back announcing its fiscal plan,
Speaker 1: leaving the Bank of England to go it alone with
Speaker 1: its interest rate decision. I'm Ryan Curtis Hong Kong opens
Speaker 1: up with a big financial forum next week. What is
Speaker 1: it hope to achieve? I'm Maybe Morris in Washington. We'll
Speaker 1: look at the final run up to the mid terms
Speaker 1: and why so many races are neck and neck. That's
Speaker 1: all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg E
Speaker 1: lovel Me three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San
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Speaker 1: and via the Bloomberg Business at By. You'm John Tucker.
Speaker 1: Let's start today's program with a coming FED policy meeting
Speaker 1: and the US jobs report joining me to talk about
Speaker 1: these things, Bloomberg Global Economics and Policy editor Mike McKee
Speaker 1: As usual, So the FED first meets and then the
Speaker 1: job report comes a couple of days later. Uh, we
Speaker 1: know what the Fed's gonna do pretty much in the
Speaker 1: coming week, right, we do. We don't know what they're
Speaker 1: gonna do after that. And answer the question you didn't
Speaker 1: ask yet that everybody will ask me before that is
Speaker 1: will the Fed see the jobs numbers before they meet?
Speaker 1: And know they will not? So they'll be as surprised
Speaker 1: as all of us on Friday when the jobs numbers
Speaker 1: come out. And that's gonna be the interesting dynamic here.
Speaker 1: What does j Paull say about the future path of
Speaker 1: interest rates two days before a report that could influence
Speaker 1: the future path of interest rates? So it's gonna be
Speaker 1: an interesting, interesting news conference from him. Okay, So remind
Speaker 1: to everybody the linkage between FED policy and jobs keeping.
Speaker 1: Full employment is one of their mandates. The other mandate
Speaker 1: is you know, price keeping, price stability, price stability, and
Speaker 1: those are pretty uh closely linked. Well, the price stability
Speaker 1: target is, as everybody knows, two percent, as measured by
Speaker 1: the Personal Consumption Expenditures indicator. The full employment mandate is
Speaker 1: not defined. Um, it's kind of know when you see it.
Speaker 1: The FED tends to think it's around four percent. So
Speaker 1: at three point five percent right now, we're below that.
Speaker 1: The forecast from economist Survey by Bloomberg for the October
Speaker 1: payrolls as it will take up to three point six percent,
Speaker 1: but still very low. Still very strong labor market. That
Speaker 1: suggests people have money to spend and they're spending it,
Speaker 1: and the Feds trying to bring demand down in order
Speaker 1: to bring prices down, and that generally means you end
Speaker 1: up with high or unemployment. As companies produce less stuff,
Speaker 1: they need fewer people, and that dynamic hasn't kicked in
Speaker 1: yet except perhaps in the real estate industry. Okay, but
Speaker 1: they also have to pay them when all those people
Speaker 1: are working and paying people money. Uh, that's inflationary, right,
Speaker 1: I forgot that. I mean those high higher wages. Well,
Speaker 1: it's the higher wages, it's the fact. It's it's when
Speaker 1: employees start to ask for more money because inflation is
Speaker 1: high that the FED gets worried because then it's it
Speaker 1: starts a circular problem for them, and so they want
Speaker 1: to get ahead of that. Surveys show that people think
Speaker 1: that UH inflation is still mostly contained. Their their views
Speaker 1: are it's risen a little bit UH. And so the
Speaker 1: Fed is pretty much certain that it wants to do
Speaker 1: at least one more seventy five basis point move because
Speaker 1: they want to try to get ahead of that. They
Speaker 1: want to by the way, it's three quarters. They want
Speaker 1: to get ahead of that any kind of wage price
Speaker 1: spiral and let people know that they are on the
Speaker 1: gento model. Okay, is there evidence of UH? Is there
Speaker 1: a threat of a wage price spiral that we like
Speaker 1: we saw in the seventies. We haven't seen anything like
Speaker 1: that yet. And the best guess is we won't have
Speaker 1: anything like the nine seventies. For one thing, you don't
Speaker 1: have large pattern union contracts as you did then, where
Speaker 1: one union and industry gets a new contract with higher
Speaker 1: wages than everybody else has to match it. So that
Speaker 1: will help hold down that whole issue. But even UH
Speaker 1: now we're seeing UH five six seven percent raises over
Speaker 1: the last two years, earnings rising by that much, and UM,
Speaker 1: while that's great for workers, then companies have to make
Speaker 1: that up somehow. So they raise their their prices and
Speaker 1: the problem is is that they haven't been able to
Speaker 1: find workers. There is a supply problem of labor and
Speaker 1: so that means that A there much less interested in
Speaker 1: letting people go, which relates to the JABS report and
Speaker 1: be uh they've had to pay up to get them.
Speaker 1: And now the question is does the labor market stabilize.
Speaker 1: Do they find enough people that they can that they
Speaker 1: don't have to keep paying more? And the only way
Speaker 1: they can the FED can effect that is by reducing demand.
Speaker 1: The higher rates they are having an impact and slowing
Speaker 1: things down, certainly in housing. Certainly in housing housing basically
Speaker 1: kind of in a recession. Residential investment in the third
Speaker 1: quarter according to the GDP report from last week fell uh.
Speaker 1: That is the kind of numbers we saw in the
Speaker 1: Great Financial Crisis when housing all collapsed and back in
Speaker 1: the early nineties. It's uh. It's a sector that is
Speaker 1: in deep trouble for right now. Um, it's cyclical, though
Speaker 1: we know that it comes and it's worse perhaps right
Speaker 1: now than it has been in a while. But um,
Speaker 1: at some point there will be more demand for housing
Speaker 1: and it will pick back up again. But right now
Speaker 1: it's leading the way down. Okay, so I keep asking
Speaker 1: this question, but do they have to torpedo employment to
Speaker 1: get to their goal off breaking inflation down? Well, at
Speaker 1: the same time, I don't know, you know, with that
Speaker 1: employment full employment goal too. To stick with your metaphor,
Speaker 1: they don't need, they don't necessarily need to torpedo employment.
Speaker 1: They can just let a little air out of the boat.
Speaker 1: But the problem is you don't know when that's when
Speaker 1: when you've actually successfully done that. Bloomberg Global Economics and
Speaker 1: Policy Editor Michael McKee. Just ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend,
Speaker 1: it's also interest rate decision time for the Bank of England.
Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: day Break weekend. Are glob to look ahead of the
Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm John
Speaker 1: Tucker in New York. Up later in the program, big
Speaker 1: high profile gathering in Hong Kong, but first in the UK.
Speaker 1: After the political upheaval of the past few weeks, focus
Speaker 1: is shifting back to the Bank of England, which announces
Speaker 1: its next rate decision on Thursday. The UK bond markets
Speaker 1: have settled down since the so called mini budget that
Speaker 1: led to the resignation of the Prime Minister. Let's trust,
Speaker 1: but the bank still trying to reign in inflation running
Speaker 1: at ten point one and for more, Let's hit to
Speaker 1: London and bringing Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Stephen Carroll John
Speaker 1: It's a big week for the UK economy, but it
Speaker 1: was meant to be even bigger. Monday the thirty first
Speaker 1: had been chosen as the date for a fiscal statement
Speaker 1: from the new Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, aimed at steadying
Speaker 1: the shape after the disastrous tax and spending plans of
Speaker 1: the last government that caused turmoil on the markets and
Speaker 1: sent the pound plunging to a record low against the dollar.
Speaker 1: But that's now been pushed back until novun sevente. Here's
Speaker 1: the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, explaining why the medium fiscal plan
Speaker 1: is extremely important and I want to confirm that it
Speaker 1: will demonstrate debt falling over the medium term, which is
Speaker 1: very important for people to understand. As it stands, the
Speaker 1: Bank of England will now have to make its right
Speaker 1: decision on Thursday without those details. To talk about this,
Speaker 1: I'm joined by Bloomberg Senior UK economist Dan Hansen and
Speaker 1: our markets reporter Valerie title as well, Valory, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: start with you. So, just a couple of weeks ago
Speaker 1: we were talking about the potential for a meltdown and
Speaker 1: guilt markets. It seems everything's calmed down now, even the
Speaker 1: delay of the fiscal statement not causing too many ripples
Speaker 1: on the markets. Yeah, a lot has changed, a lot
Speaker 1: has changed the volatility, and the guilt market has definitely
Speaker 1: calmed down. Yields have retrace a lot of their move
Speaker 1: that happened after the mini budget back in September. But
Speaker 1: the key thing for me looking at the markets is
Speaker 1: just the the inflationary imp else from the fiscal measures
Speaker 1: is going to be way smaller. We know that this
Speaker 1: energy plan is paired back. Yes, we don't have the
Speaker 1: announcement on Monday, but it looks like fiscal restraint is
Speaker 1: definitely on the pipeline down. Where does all of this
Speaker 1: leave the Bank of England their decision on Thursdays. It's
Speaker 1: going to change their calculations if they don't have the
Speaker 1: fiscal statement. I'm not sure it does. To be honest,
Speaker 1: and it goes to a Valerie just said, I mean,
Speaker 1: they know this consolidation is coming I mean it won't
Speaker 1: be in their forecast because the way it works, as
Speaker 1: the bank isn't allowed to assume anything about fiscal policy.
Speaker 1: It has to just take government announcements as given, so
Speaker 1: it won't have any of the consolidation in the forecast.
Speaker 1: So all else equal, inflation will be a little bit
Speaker 1: higher than it otherwise would be once the consolidation is
Speaker 1: taken into account. But I think the important thing we
Speaker 1: know now is that Chancellor and the Governor are talking.
Speaker 1: The Governor will know the rough outline of what the
Speaker 1: Treasury is thinking. And as you said at the start there,
Speaker 1: that the market has a been spooked by this delay.
Speaker 1: So there isn't really any pressure on the bank to
Speaker 1: go over and above what it thinks is necessary to
Speaker 1: just fight inflation. There isn't this need to sort of
Speaker 1: restore confidence in UK assets, So it's it's really just
Speaker 1: about focusing on what they think is necessary to bring
Speaker 1: inflation back down. Where does that leave your forecast for
Speaker 1: what the Bank of England's going to do? Yeah, so
Speaker 1: we've been on a bit of a roller coaster, to
Speaker 1: be honest. I mean I think it's on the September
Speaker 1: we saw the market price in two hundred basis points.
Speaker 1: For this meeting, we've come all the way back down
Speaker 1: to just about seventy five basis points. I mean, our
Speaker 1: view is the committee is going to be torn between
Speaker 1: fifty and seventy five, and I think they'll they'll go
Speaker 1: for seventy five, They'll go for the slightly bigger option.
Speaker 1: But I think that the idea of a three digit
Speaker 1: rate rise now is completely out the window. It's between
Speaker 1: is between fifty and seventy five, and I think there
Speaker 1: is probably enough news on the fiscal side to warrant
Speaker 1: a slightly bigger move, particularly when you take into account
Speaker 1: sterling is still down relative to their last four all
Speaker 1: cost and we still got inflation in double digits and
Speaker 1: the late markets still very very hot. Okay, wal you've
Speaker 1: been riding that market Royler coaster with us over the
Speaker 1: past couple of weeks. How how are the markets feeling
Speaker 1: about the Bank of England? Yeah? There, you know, we're
Speaker 1: the markets really reading this is that we're less likely
Speaker 1: to have a monster hike. You know, as we just mentioned,
Speaker 1: seventy five basis points is now priced. It's even dropped
Speaker 1: a teeny bit below seventy five. But but I think
Speaker 1: I'll be focused on the division within the MPC. Last meeting,
Speaker 1: we had a huge array of choices. We had some
Speaker 1: members calling for seventy five, some for fifty, some for
Speaker 1: twenty five. So is that division repeated um? As we
Speaker 1: know when they met previously, again was on the eve
Speaker 1: of a big fiscal announcement, and they passed up the
Speaker 1: opportunity to speed up the pace and stuck with fifty. So,
Speaker 1: you know, as Dan mentioned, I think they're probably very eager,
Speaker 1: eager to step up the pace. Given that the market
Speaker 1: is pricing seventy five. It's giving them a good opportunity
Speaker 1: to step it up to seventy five UM. And then
Speaker 1: the other side of the of the coin is QT,
Speaker 1: you know, is due to start next Tuesday, on the
Speaker 1: first of November. Now, remember when the Bank of England
Speaker 1: met last time, they were not divided on QT. It
Speaker 1: was unanimous unanimous decisions. So I don't expect that to
Speaker 1: rock the boat anymore next Thursday. Okay, Don what about
Speaker 1: the cleanup job the government has to do? Of course,
Speaker 1: they have this extra time now to put this fiscal
Speaker 1: statement together with the full o b R forecast you've
Speaker 1: predicted that are projected that the clean up from trust
Speaker 1: anomics will not one and a half percent off the
Speaker 1: UK's GDP. How will the bank have to balance that
Speaker 1: hit to growth with red heart inflation. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: that it's a really start trade off that the Bank
Speaker 1: of England is facing and and I think actually it'll
Speaker 1: it will potentially be even worse than their forecast when
Speaker 1: we when we see them forecast, I think would be
Speaker 1: very very weak. Um. I think in reality what that
Speaker 1: means is the it we might get in November, but
Speaker 1: I think going ahead to flank would probably be a
Speaker 1: little bit more cautious, particularly known as consolidations coming and
Speaker 1: the fact that we know the economy has weakened significantly,
Speaker 1: particularly since it last put the Bank last put together
Speaker 1: it's forecast in August and looking at the stay in
Speaker 1: the picture is the picture is pretty bleak. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've got this energy cap coming in that's going to help,
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's going to prevent the UK
Speaker 1: falling into recession over the winter and in the first
Speaker 1: half of three So it's going to be it's going
Speaker 1: to be a trade off. And as that as the
Speaker 1: activity data sours, I think the pressure will come off
Speaker 1: a little bit on the Bank that keeping the pace
Speaker 1: of rate hikes high, sort of in the seventy fifty range.
Speaker 1: I think it will give them room to drop down.
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, I don't think they're going to
Speaker 1: be able to stop until inflation is clearly on a
Speaker 1: downward trajectory, but the pressure to go big meeting after
Speaker 1: meeting will drop significantly. What about the mortgage market and
Speaker 1: all of this because it's you know, it's been because
Speaker 1: there's the simplest read through that people have had from
Speaker 1: the market turmoil. Anyway, how much does that factor into
Speaker 1: a Bank of England decision of what's happening in terms
Speaker 1: of the housing market. Well, I think it will factoring
Speaker 1: quite significantly, and particularly will give them reason to think
Speaker 1: that the near term outlook will be potentially weaker than
Speaker 1: they were expecting in August, and I think it will
Speaker 1: be reason for them to be a little bit more
Speaker 1: pessimistic about demand outlook in the near term. That's something
Speaker 1: that will be interesting to see how they characterize what
Speaker 1: they think will go on with the housing market in
Speaker 1: the near term. Okay, Valerie title, our Markets reporter and
Speaker 1: Dan Hanson, Senior UK economist at Bloomberg Economics. Thank you
Speaker 1: to you both for your insights. Stephen, thanks a lot.
Speaker 1: Just to hit on Bloomberg Deybreak weekend. Why so many
Speaker 1: are keeping a close eye on a big financial meeting
Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg Broadcasting
Speaker 1: live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six, one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine
Speaker 1: sixty to the country, Sirius XM Chando one nineteen to London,
Speaker 1: d A B. Digital Radio and around the globe the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg day Break Weekend. I'm John Tucker in New York
Speaker 1: with your global look ahead of the top stories for
Speaker 1: investors in the coming week. Big finance gathering coming in
Speaker 1: Hong Kong and for more. Let's go to Hong Kong
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg day Break Asia host Brian Curtis and his
Speaker 1: colleague Doug Krisner. John coming up in Hong Kong. The
Speaker 1: Global Financial Leader's Investment Summit. Not as snappy a title
Speaker 1: as a vision quest or burning man. But this summit
Speaker 1: is meant to get Hong kong It's financial mojo back
Speaker 1: after a period of hibernation, and a number of financial
Speaker 1: heavyweights will certainly be there, among them Goldman Sachs CEO
Speaker 1: David Solomon and Morgan Stanley boss James Gorman. Why are
Speaker 1: they attending and what is Hong Kong hoping to achieve
Speaker 1: and what role will U S sanctions play? Some Hong
Speaker 1: Kong leaders, like the Chief Executive John Lee, are covered
Speaker 1: by U S sanctions against Hong Kong and Chinese officials
Speaker 1: for the crackdown here on political freedoms. Lee has said
Speaker 1: he laughs off those u S sanctions. Joining us now
Speaker 1: for some insight on the forum is Bloomberg Senior editor
Speaker 1: Richard Frost. Richard, thanks very much for being with us.
Speaker 1: So the panels are themed on three areas, navigating through uncertainty, technology, innovation,
Speaker 1: and the future of finance and sustainable finance. All these
Speaker 1: are quite interesting, but as mentioned at the top there,
Speaker 1: the real story is Hong Kong getting back on its feet.
Speaker 1: How big is the buy in from some of the
Speaker 1: big financial institutions. As you mentioned at the star, it's
Speaker 1: it's a sort of all star lineup really for this
Speaker 1: it's been very heavily pushed by Hong Kong. I'm sure
Speaker 1: there's been quite a lot of strong arming um from
Speaker 1: authorities here. It was first announced by the Finance Secretary
Speaker 1: in his budget earlier this year, and Hong Kong has
Speaker 1: done a lot to try and ensure that um it
Speaker 1: got as many attendees as possible. When it was announced,
Speaker 1: there was still mandatory hotel quarantine, and in recent months
Speaker 1: it's removed that. It's made a number of concessions two attendees,
Speaker 1: including allowing them to fly out if they if they
Speaker 1: get COVID, if necessary, to leave the city by private jet,
Speaker 1: because Hong Kong really wants to show that after more
Speaker 1: than two years in self imposed isolation, it's back on
Speaker 1: the global stage, and so having all these heavyweights come
Speaker 1: in it really underlines that point. How has the pandemic
Speaker 1: change the banking and financial services industry in Hong Kong.
Speaker 1: We've heard stories about flight of talent in some pockets
Speaker 1: of the industry. I mean, it's been described as a
Speaker 1: significant amount of brain drainage. How does it stack up?
Speaker 1: There has been a notable exodus of residents and bankers
Speaker 1: and lawyers, etcetera among them. I mean, Hong Kong had
Speaker 1: is population dropped by a record one point six percent
Speaker 1: in the in the twelve months through June. Banks retain
Speaker 1: a very significant presence here. Nonetheless, UM and their regional
Speaker 1: headquarters remain remain in Hong Kong, so in in some
Speaker 1: ways UM it's not UM. It's not affected the presence
Speaker 1: of banks, but it's certainly made the city a much
Speaker 1: less appealing place to live in. UM and Singapore in particular,
Speaker 1: has stolen a march on Hong Kong by trying to
Speaker 1: attract the wealthier, wealthier workers. It rolled out new visas
Speaker 1: UH and and it's It's also been hosting a number
Speaker 1: of high profile events prior to Hong Kong to to
Speaker 1: really show that UM that to show how it could
Speaker 1: rival Hong Kong in terms of being an international finance center. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and on that point, we just had the Party Congress
Speaker 1: wrap up in in China. It was seen as disappointing,
Speaker 1: partially because it seemed national security issues came to the
Speaker 1: form over UM say the economy. I'm curious, though, does
Speaker 1: that work for or against Hong Kong's future it's I
Speaker 1: mean that that remains to be seen. It's certainly interesting
Speaker 1: timing for for all the attendees coming to Hong Kong
Speaker 1: for this summit. It's against the landscape of blasted, blasted
Speaker 1: kind of market for Chinese assets. We saw huge sell
Speaker 1: off on Monday in the wake of the National Congress
Speaker 1: on concern overseas increased control over the nation's top a
Speaker 1: cool bodies and Hong Kong is going to the scene.
Speaker 1: Is going to be remaining as a gateway to China.
Speaker 1: But with China changing itself and increasingly closing off it
Speaker 1: remains We've seen how much business um that banks and
Speaker 1: others can access. Will China continue to put up walls
Speaker 1: or that continued opening up? All right, Richard, thanks so
Speaker 1: much for joining us. Interesting inside Bloomberg Senior Editor Richard Frost,
Speaker 1: and I'm Brian Curtis here in Hong Kong along with
Speaker 1: Doug Krisner. By the way, you can catch us every
Speaker 1: weekday for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at six am in
Speaker 1: Hong Kong and six pm on Wall Street. John, Brian
Speaker 1: and Doug thanks a lot and just a head on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. A lot of twists and turns in
Speaker 1: US politics as the mid terms approach. I'm John Tucker.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global
Speaker 1: look ahead at the top stories for investors in the
Speaker 1: coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. Clark is
Speaker 1: taking on the mid terms, and it's a fast moving
Speaker 1: and rapidly shifting dynamic. For more. Lets into our Bloomberg
Speaker 1: ninety on one newsroom at Washington and Amy Morris Amy,
Speaker 1: that's right, John, We are approaching what some may be
Speaker 1: calling the height of the political silly season. It's kind
Speaker 1: of an anything goes sort of atmosphere. Joining me now
Speaker 1: to talk about it, Bloomberg political reporter Ryan Teague Beck
Speaker 1: with Ryan, it's great to see. Thanks so much for
Speaker 1: joining us anytime. Let's talk about the polls. There was
Speaker 1: a poll out this past week with President Biden's approval
Speaker 1: ratings dipping down to thirty nine percent. It's a Reuters
Speaker 1: Ipsos poll that puts the president's writing almost the lowest
Speaker 1: of his presidency. Um and we're getting closer and closer
Speaker 1: in November eight. So how bad does this bode for
Speaker 1: Democratic midterm candidates, especially the ones he's been campaigning for
Speaker 1: or does it do people pay attention anymore? You know,
Speaker 1: it's a weird um phenomenon, But it does seem that
Speaker 1: the presidential approval rating is not as closely tied to
Speaker 1: the generic congressional ballot. Uh. It's certainly not good for
Speaker 1: Democrats for Biden to not be more popular than he is. Um,
Speaker 1: it remains to be seen how much of a drag
Speaker 1: it will actually be. I don't know, it feels it
Speaker 1: feels a little bit disconnected, and I'm not sure why
Speaker 1: that is. Have you seen that before? I mean, we
Speaker 1: saw that a little bit with Trump. Obviously, like Trump
Speaker 1: lost re election even as people voted for a lot
Speaker 1: of Republicans down ballot, So there were a lot of
Speaker 1: people who are able to make that separation. And it's
Speaker 1: kind of a shift too, I think. And some of
Speaker 1: these we're seeing some potential for crossover voting in governor
Speaker 1: states with governor and senate races at the same time,
Speaker 1: where like they there seems to be a significant number
Speaker 1: of people who are willing to vote for Republican for
Speaker 1: governor and then for a Democrat for senator or vice versa,
Speaker 1: which is unusual because we had been moving more in
Speaker 1: this direction, a kind of lockstep partisanship, and that there
Speaker 1: may be a few races, including something that could be decisive,
Speaker 1: where that may not happen. Now, let's talk about one
Speaker 1: of those races that that maybe a toss up. It's
Speaker 1: pretty tight. The Oz Fetterman debate that's going on or
Speaker 1: that went on this past week in Pennsylvania. Lieutenant Governor
Speaker 1: John Fetterman at the debate, I just want to play
Speaker 1: what he had to say because the big overriding issue
Speaker 1: for them has been that he had a stroke and
Speaker 1: what his health might mean for the future in that office.
Speaker 1: And so he addressed it elephant in the room. I
Speaker 1: think he called it. Let's see what he had to say.
Speaker 1: I had a stroke. He's never let me forget that,
Speaker 1: And I might miss some words during this debate two
Speaker 1: words together, but it knocked me down and I'm going
Speaker 1: to keep coming back up, all right. So tell me
Speaker 1: the response to that is it does it say something
Speaker 1: that he was that open and transparent and pushed it
Speaker 1: forward because even saying that, um the line he's never
Speaker 1: let me forget that, that all tries to paint Dr
Speaker 1: Oz as a bully, and I wonder if that's going
Speaker 1: to come back to bide him or help him. You know.
Speaker 1: I think ultimately he could have had a stronger performance
Speaker 1: in terms of being able to show that he's able
Speaker 1: to talk. I think that concerned that people had was like, boy,
Speaker 1: you know, the whole point of a senators that you
Speaker 1: get there and you give speeches, which isn't exactly accurate anymore.
Speaker 1: But that is a genuine concern, and I think that
Speaker 1: the Federman campaign mishandled it early on by not being
Speaker 1: more transparent. I think Oz also overplayed his hand a
Speaker 1: little bit. Um, and I think that the the pushback
Speaker 1: there has helped soften that a little bit for the
Speaker 1: Feederman campaign. Um. I don't think it was a good
Speaker 1: night for Fetterman. But I also think, like Oz, for example,
Speaker 1: his answer on abortion did not do him any favor.
Speaker 1: Let's listen to that answer, at least in part. I
Speaker 1: want women doctors, local political leaders, letting the democracy that's
Speaker 1: always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best
Speaker 1: ideas forward so states can decide for themselves, all right,
Speaker 1: explain pick at a part. I just think that the
Speaker 1: answer itself is fairly to rigor, and I think he's
Speaker 1: basically saying in that that he doesn't want to go
Speaker 1: to the Congress and make decisions on abortion. He wants
Speaker 1: to leave that at the local level, which is probably
Speaker 1: a good argument for him. But the combination of women,
Speaker 1: their doctors, and local political leaders, I think was just
Speaker 1: not It's just such an image that it pops up
Speaker 1: in your head of like standing there in the doctor's
Speaker 1: office with like the mayor or something like. It just
Speaker 1: I don't think it did him any favors. I think
Speaker 1: it's not. Uh, it's kind of more of what you
Speaker 1: might think of as like a gaff, like in the
Speaker 1: traditional sense, but back when we had gaffs and they mattered. Um.
Speaker 1: But it's certainly anything on that issue, which he's been
Speaker 1: very careful to avoid the pitfalls that I think some
Speaker 1: other Republicans have rushed headlong into um on an issue
Speaker 1: that has the potential to turn out voters in some states.
Speaker 1: You said something important back when we had gaffs and
Speaker 1: they mattered. I know you were being tongue in cheek,
Speaker 1: but let me pull on that. I'm not being like,
Speaker 1: I really mean that. Okay, let me pull on that
Speaker 1: for a second, because if we are so divided, and
Speaker 1: we're so entrenched in our own parties and what we
Speaker 1: already think are do we need debates anymore? People have
Speaker 1: made up their minds, haven't they. You know. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm a political reporter, so I'm always going to be
Speaker 1: pro debate, and I think that skipping a debate is damaging.
Speaker 1: And I think that that not being willing to show
Speaker 1: up and and debate your opponent is not a good look.
Speaker 1: And I think that you've seen that in Arizona. Katie Hobbs,
Speaker 1: who is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee UH declined to interview
Speaker 1: to a debate Carry Lake, who was very good at
Speaker 1: debating in the Republican primaries UM and I and and
Speaker 1: Lake successfully used that against her. And I think that
Speaker 1: if she loses that race, I think that will be
Speaker 1: something people will point to and say that was a mistake.
Speaker 1: Of course, if she'd done the debate and done poorly,
Speaker 1: they would also pointed to it instead it was a mistake.
Speaker 1: But I do think that you can among a certain
Speaker 1: sliver of independent voters just hearing that you were unwilling
Speaker 1: to debate, it just doesn't It doesn't sit well. And
Speaker 1: and also I think that like really debates don't matter
Speaker 1: that much. Like I think that candidates who shy away
Speaker 1: from them are shying away from something where the time
Speaker 1: it doesn't make a difference. So you might as well
Speaker 1: do it, because you might as well do it. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think that the one thing you're trying to avoid
Speaker 1: is just that that one really bad answer, and and
Speaker 1: there are times when that happens. I mean, Terry mcculliffe,
Speaker 1: like had a really bad answer on parent choice in
Speaker 1: the gubernatorial race in Virginia, and I think that that
Speaker 1: really really hurt him in the waning days of it.
Speaker 1: I think in some ways you might avoid that by
Speaker 1: doing more debates, Like the more debates there are, the
Speaker 1: less in any one of them seems all that important. Um,
Speaker 1: and the better at debating you get, uh, you know.
Speaker 1: I think in Oz Vetterman that was one of the
Speaker 1: rare cases where people were really going to be watching
Speaker 1: it closely. Oz is obviously good on TV, we expected
Speaker 1: him to do well. Fetterman did not have a great
Speaker 1: track record in debates before, and uh, you know, people
Speaker 1: were going to be watching him very carefully. I think
Speaker 1: it was a little bit reminiscent of what you see
Speaker 1: with Biden where conservatives will tend to look at Biden's
Speaker 1: stuttering and verbal missteps and say, look, there's something wrong
Speaker 1: with him, He's not up to the job, and Democrats
Speaker 1: largely blow it off. I think in in this particular case,
Speaker 1: i'mlike with Biden, I think that there were some independent
Speaker 1: voters would be looking at it and saying, you know,
Speaker 1: is he up for the job? So does it surprise
Speaker 1: you that it is as tight as it is? And
Speaker 1: that's not the only race that's tight, I mean, and
Speaker 1: they're so neck and neck. This is this is the
Speaker 1: season for making your predictions about a sleeper race and
Speaker 1: hoping that no one remembers the ones you got wrong.
Speaker 1: But like, Republicans right now are putting money in New
Speaker 1: Hampshire where you know, you would normally think that they
Speaker 1: wouldn't have a chance, especially with putting money in New Hampshire. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's a Senate candidate there, Don Bullduck, who is um
Speaker 1: prone to saying some pretty goofy things, and he's running
Speaker 1: against an establishment Democrat with strong name I d who
Speaker 1: you know normally does pretty well. And you know, Republicans
Speaker 1: are putting money in that race right now and trying
Speaker 1: to prop up Don Baldock, who's own campaign doesn't have
Speaker 1: the kind of money to do that. UM. I don't
Speaker 1: tend to think that one's gonna work out for Republicans,
Speaker 1: but it's a smart play for them because it's a
Speaker 1: small amount of money with a potential big payoff. UM.
Speaker 1: And if it's a wave election, you know, try to
Speaker 1: snag as many of those as you can because you've
Speaker 1: got those Senate seats for six years, so you know,
Speaker 1: if you're if you're going to do it, do it. UM.
Speaker 1: I don't tend to think that one's going to work
Speaker 1: out for them, But there's other Uh, there's some other
Speaker 1: races that I'm watching that are governors racist. I'm super
Speaker 1: curious to see what happens in Wisconsin. I think that
Speaker 1: Ron Johnson seems to have the sen At race locked
Speaker 1: down there, but the governor's race could be a toss
Speaker 1: up UM, and they could be one of those states
Speaker 1: where the Democratic incumbent wins re election UM, as does
Speaker 1: the Republican senator. Wisconsin's very weird state, very polarized UM,
Speaker 1: but the incumbents may both win there, even though that's
Speaker 1: kind of a split decision party wise. UM. Keeping an
Speaker 1: eye on Arizona just because it's in terms of election denial,
Speaker 1: it's a hotbed the governors Canadas for governor, senator, attorney general,
Speaker 1: and Secretary of State, which overseas elections are all election
Speaker 1: deniers and not just normal election deniers. But Mark Fincham
Speaker 1: is running for secretary of State is probably like the
Speaker 1: pre eminent election denier. Uh. And they've all basically said
Speaker 1: that they would use their position to try to influence
Speaker 1: the outcome a future election. So uh, Fincham wants to
Speaker 1: get rid of using machines to count ballots in a
Speaker 1: state like Arizona. It would take week and and thousands
Speaker 1: of people to hand count all the ballots. Um. Hand
Speaker 1: counting ballots is also not accurate, not as accurate as machines,
Speaker 1: more expensive and more time consuming. It's a nightmare. Um.
Speaker 1: So you know, he could really throw things uh at
Speaker 1: future elections into all kinds of chaos there, as could
Speaker 1: the governor candidate carry Lake. All right, Ryan, thank you
Speaker 1: so much. Anytime. Ian D. Beckwith is Bloomberg political correspondent,
Speaker 1: and that's what's going on in the nation's capital. For
Speaker 1: more of our political news coverage, you can tune into
Speaker 1: Balance of Power with David weston weekdays at noon Wall
Speaker 1: Street Time, and Soundong with Joe Matthew weekdays five pm
Speaker 1: Wall Street Time. Right here on Bloomberg Radio, I'm Amy
Speaker 1: Morris and this is Bloomer John Amy Morris, reporting from
Speaker 1: our Bloomberg newsroom in Washington. Amy thanks a lot, and
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