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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at

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Speaker 1: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak

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Speaker 1: anchors all around the world. Answers Dan on the program,

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Speaker 1: Here comes the FED meeting and the US jobs reporting.

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Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker in New York. I'm Stephen Karen in London.

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Speaker 1: With a new government just pushed back announcing its fiscal plan,

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Speaker 1: leaving the Bank of England to go it alone with

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Speaker 1: its interest rate decision. I'm Ryan Curtis Hong Kong opens

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Speaker 1: up with a big financial forum next week. What is

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Speaker 1: it hope to achieve? I'm Maybe Morris in Washington. We'll

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Speaker 1: look at the final run up to the mid terms

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Speaker 1: and why so many races are neck and neck. That's

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Speaker 1: all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg E

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Speaker 1: lovel Me three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San

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Speaker 1: Francisco d A B, Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one

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Speaker 1: nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio dot Com

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Speaker 1: and via the Bloomberg Business at By. You'm John Tucker.

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Speaker 1: Let's start today's program with a coming FED policy meeting

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Speaker 1: and the US jobs report joining me to talk about

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Speaker 1: these things, Bloomberg Global Economics and Policy editor Mike McKee

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Speaker 1: As usual, So the FED first meets and then the

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Speaker 1: job report comes a couple of days later. Uh, we

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Speaker 1: know what the Fed's gonna do pretty much in the

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Speaker 1: coming week, right, we do. We don't know what they're

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Speaker 1: gonna do after that. And answer the question you didn't

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Speaker 1: ask yet that everybody will ask me before that is

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Speaker 1: will the Fed see the jobs numbers before they meet?

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Speaker 1: And know they will not? So they'll be as surprised

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Speaker 1: as all of us on Friday when the jobs numbers

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Speaker 1: come out. And that's gonna be the interesting dynamic here.

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Speaker 1: What does j Paull say about the future path of

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Speaker 1: interest rates two days before a report that could influence

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Speaker 1: the future path of interest rates? So it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: an interesting, interesting news conference from him. Okay, So remind

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Speaker 1: to everybody the linkage between FED policy and jobs keeping.

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Speaker 1: Full employment is one of their mandates. The other mandate

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Speaker 1: is you know, price keeping, price stability, price stability, and

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Speaker 1: those are pretty uh closely linked. Well, the price stability

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Speaker 1: target is, as everybody knows, two percent, as measured by

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Speaker 1: the Personal Consumption Expenditures indicator. The full employment mandate is

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Speaker 1: not defined. Um, it's kind of know when you see it.

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Speaker 1: The FED tends to think it's around four percent. So

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Speaker 1: at three point five percent right now, we're below that.

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Speaker 1: The forecast from economist Survey by Bloomberg for the October

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Speaker 1: payrolls as it will take up to three point six percent,

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Speaker 1: but still very low. Still very strong labor market. That

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Speaker 1: suggests people have money to spend and they're spending it,

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Speaker 1: and the Feds trying to bring demand down in order

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Speaker 1: to bring prices down, and that generally means you end

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Speaker 1: up with high or unemployment. As companies produce less stuff,

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Speaker 1: they need fewer people, and that dynamic hasn't kicked in

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Speaker 1: yet except perhaps in the real estate industry. Okay, but

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Speaker 1: they also have to pay them when all those people

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Speaker 1: are working and paying people money. Uh, that's inflationary, right,

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Speaker 1: I forgot that. I mean those high higher wages. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's the higher wages, it's the fact. It's it's when

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Speaker 1: employees start to ask for more money because inflation is

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Speaker 1: high that the FED gets worried because then it's it

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Speaker 1: starts a circular problem for them, and so they want

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Speaker 1: to get ahead of that. Surveys show that people think

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Speaker 1: that UH inflation is still mostly contained. Their their views

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Speaker 1: are it's risen a little bit UH. And so the

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Speaker 1: Fed is pretty much certain that it wants to do

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Speaker 1: at least one more seventy five basis point move because

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Speaker 1: they want to try to get ahead of that. They

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Speaker 1: want to by the way, it's three quarters. They want

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Speaker 1: to get ahead of that any kind of wage price

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Speaker 1: spiral and let people know that they are on the

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Speaker 1: gento model. Okay, is there evidence of UH? Is there

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Speaker 1: a threat of a wage price spiral that we like

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Speaker 1: we saw in the seventies. We haven't seen anything like

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Speaker 1: that yet. And the best guess is we won't have

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Speaker 1: anything like the nine seventies. For one thing, you don't

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Speaker 1: have large pattern union contracts as you did then, where

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Speaker 1: one union and industry gets a new contract with higher

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Speaker 1: wages than everybody else has to match it. So that

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Speaker 1: will help hold down that whole issue. But even UH

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Speaker 1: now we're seeing UH five six seven percent raises over

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Speaker 1: the last two years, earnings rising by that much, and UM,

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Speaker 1: while that's great for workers, then companies have to make

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Speaker 1: that up somehow. So they raise their their prices and

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Speaker 1: the problem is is that they haven't been able to

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Speaker 1: find workers. There is a supply problem of labor and

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Speaker 1: so that means that A there much less interested in

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Speaker 1: letting people go, which relates to the JABS report and

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Speaker 1: be uh they've had to pay up to get them.

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Speaker 1: And now the question is does the labor market stabilize.

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Speaker 1: Do they find enough people that they can that they

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Speaker 1: don't have to keep paying more? And the only way

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Speaker 1: they can the FED can effect that is by reducing demand.

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Speaker 1: The higher rates they are having an impact and slowing

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Speaker 1: things down, certainly in housing. Certainly in housing housing basically

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Speaker 1: kind of in a recession. Residential investment in the third

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Speaker 1: quarter according to the GDP report from last week fell uh.

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Speaker 1: That is the kind of numbers we saw in the

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Speaker 1: Great Financial Crisis when housing all collapsed and back in

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Speaker 1: the early nineties. It's uh. It's a sector that is

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Speaker 1: in deep trouble for right now. Um, it's cyclical, though

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Speaker 1: we know that it comes and it's worse perhaps right

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Speaker 1: now than it has been in a while. But um,

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Speaker 1: at some point there will be more demand for housing

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Speaker 1: and it will pick back up again. But right now

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Speaker 1: it's leading the way down. Okay, so I keep asking

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Speaker 1: this question, but do they have to torpedo employment to

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Speaker 1: get to their goal off breaking inflation down? Well, at

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Speaker 1: the same time, I don't know, you know, with that

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Speaker 1: employment full employment goal too. To stick with your metaphor,

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Speaker 1: they don't need, they don't necessarily need to torpedo employment.

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Speaker 1: They can just let a little air out of the boat.

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Speaker 1: But the problem is you don't know when that's when

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Speaker 1: when you've actually successfully done that. Bloomberg Global Economics and

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Speaker 1: Policy Editor Michael McKee. Just ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend,

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Speaker 1: it's also interest rate decision time for the Bank of England.

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Speaker 1: I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: day Break weekend. Are glob to look ahead of the

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Speaker 1: top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm John

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Speaker 1: Tucker in New York. Up later in the program, big

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Speaker 1: high profile gathering in Hong Kong, but first in the UK.

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Speaker 1: After the political upheaval of the past few weeks, focus

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Speaker 1: is shifting back to the Bank of England, which announces

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Speaker 1: its next rate decision on Thursday. The UK bond markets

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Speaker 1: have settled down since the so called mini budget that

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Speaker 1: led to the resignation of the Prime Minister. Let's trust,

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Speaker 1: but the bank still trying to reign in inflation running

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Speaker 1: at ten point one and for more, Let's hit to

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Speaker 1: London and bringing Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Stephen Carroll John

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Speaker 1: It's a big week for the UK economy, but it

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Speaker 1: was meant to be even bigger. Monday the thirty first

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Speaker 1: had been chosen as the date for a fiscal statement

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Speaker 1: from the new Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, aimed at steadying

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Speaker 1: the shape after the disastrous tax and spending plans of

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Speaker 1: the last government that caused turmoil on the markets and

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Speaker 1: sent the pound plunging to a record low against the dollar.

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Speaker 1: But that's now been pushed back until novun sevente. Here's

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Speaker 1: the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, explaining why the medium fiscal plan

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Speaker 1: is extremely important and I want to confirm that it

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Speaker 1: will demonstrate debt falling over the medium term, which is

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Speaker 1: very important for people to understand. As it stands, the

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Speaker 1: Bank of England will now have to make its right

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Speaker 1: decision on Thursday without those details. To talk about this,

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Speaker 1: I'm joined by Bloomberg Senior UK economist Dan Hansen and

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Speaker 1: our markets reporter Valerie title as well, Valory, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: start with you. So, just a couple of weeks ago

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Speaker 1: we were talking about the potential for a meltdown and

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Speaker 1: guilt markets. It seems everything's calmed down now, even the

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Speaker 1: delay of the fiscal statement not causing too many ripples

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Speaker 1: on the markets. Yeah, a lot has changed, a lot

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Speaker 1: has changed the volatility, and the guilt market has definitely

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Speaker 1: calmed down. Yields have retrace a lot of their move

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Speaker 1: that happened after the mini budget back in September. But

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Speaker 1: the key thing for me looking at the markets is

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Speaker 1: just the the inflationary imp else from the fiscal measures

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Speaker 1: is going to be way smaller. We know that this

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Speaker 1: energy plan is paired back. Yes, we don't have the

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Speaker 1: announcement on Monday, but it looks like fiscal restraint is

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Speaker 1: definitely on the pipeline down. Where does all of this

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Speaker 1: leave the Bank of England their decision on Thursdays. It's

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Speaker 1: going to change their calculations if they don't have the

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Speaker 1: fiscal statement. I'm not sure it does. To be honest,

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Speaker 1: and it goes to a Valerie just said, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they know this consolidation is coming I mean it won't

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Speaker 1: be in their forecast because the way it works, as

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Speaker 1: the bank isn't allowed to assume anything about fiscal policy.

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Speaker 1: It has to just take government announcements as given, so

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Speaker 1: it won't have any of the consolidation in the forecast.

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Speaker 1: So all else equal, inflation will be a little bit

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Speaker 1: higher than it otherwise would be once the consolidation is

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Speaker 1: taken into account. But I think the important thing we

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Speaker 1: know now is that Chancellor and the Governor are talking.

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Speaker 1: The Governor will know the rough outline of what the

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Speaker 1: Treasury is thinking. And as you said at the start there,

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Speaker 1: that the market has a been spooked by this delay.

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Speaker 1: So there isn't really any pressure on the bank to

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Speaker 1: go over and above what it thinks is necessary to

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Speaker 1: just fight inflation. There isn't this need to sort of

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Speaker 1: restore confidence in UK assets, So it's it's really just

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Speaker 1: about focusing on what they think is necessary to bring

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Speaker 1: inflation back down. Where does that leave your forecast for

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Speaker 1: what the Bank of England's going to do? Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: we've been on a bit of a roller coaster, to

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Speaker 1: be honest. I mean I think it's on the September

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Speaker 1: we saw the market price in two hundred basis points.

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Speaker 1: For this meeting, we've come all the way back down

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Speaker 1: to just about seventy five basis points. I mean, our

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Speaker 1: view is the committee is going to be torn between

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Speaker 1: fifty and seventy five, and I think they'll they'll go

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Speaker 1: for seventy five, They'll go for the slightly bigger option.

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Speaker 1: But I think that the idea of a three digit

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Speaker 1: rate rise now is completely out the window. It's between

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Speaker 1: is between fifty and seventy five, and I think there

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Speaker 1: is probably enough news on the fiscal side to warrant

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Speaker 1: a slightly bigger move, particularly when you take into account

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Speaker 1: sterling is still down relative to their last four all

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Speaker 1: cost and we still got inflation in double digits and

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Speaker 1: the late markets still very very hot. Okay, wal you've

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Speaker 1: been riding that market Royler coaster with us over the

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Speaker 1: past couple of weeks. How how are the markets feeling

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Speaker 1: about the Bank of England? Yeah? There, you know, we're

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Speaker 1: the markets really reading this is that we're less likely

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Speaker 1: to have a monster hike. You know, as we just mentioned,

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Speaker 1: seventy five basis points is now priced. It's even dropped

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Speaker 1: a teeny bit below seventy five. But but I think

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Speaker 1: I'll be focused on the division within the MPC. Last meeting,

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Speaker 1: we had a huge array of choices. We had some

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Speaker 1: members calling for seventy five, some for fifty, some for

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Speaker 1: twenty five. So is that division repeated um? As we

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Speaker 1: know when they met previously, again was on the eve

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Speaker 1: of a big fiscal announcement, and they passed up the

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Speaker 1: opportunity to speed up the pace and stuck with fifty. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, as Dan mentioned, I think they're probably very eager,

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Speaker 1: eager to step up the pace. Given that the market

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Speaker 1: is pricing seventy five. It's giving them a good opportunity

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Speaker 1: to step it up to seventy five UM. And then

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Speaker 1: the other side of the of the coin is QT,

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Speaker 1: you know, is due to start next Tuesday, on the

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Speaker 1: first of November. Now, remember when the Bank of England

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Speaker 1: met last time, they were not divided on QT. It

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Speaker 1: was unanimous unanimous decisions. So I don't expect that to

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Speaker 1: rock the boat anymore next Thursday. Okay, Don what about

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Speaker 1: the cleanup job the government has to do? Of course,

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Speaker 1: they have this extra time now to put this fiscal

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Speaker 1: anomics will not one and a half percent off the

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Speaker 1: UK's GDP. How will the bank have to balance that

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Speaker 1: hit to growth with red heart inflation. Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: that it's a really start trade off that the Bank

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Speaker 1: it will potentially be even worse than their forecast when

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Speaker 1: we when we see them forecast, I think would be

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Speaker 1: very very weak. Um. I think in reality what that

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Speaker 1: I think going ahead to flank would probably be a

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Speaker 1: little bit more cautious, particularly known as consolidations coming and

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Speaker 1: the fact that we know the economy has weakened significantly,

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Speaker 1: particularly since it last put the Bank last put together

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Speaker 1: it's forecast in August and looking at the stay in

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Speaker 1: the picture is the picture is pretty bleak. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've got this energy cap coming in that's going to help,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think it's going to prevent the UK

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Speaker 1: falling into recession over the winter and in the first

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Speaker 1: half of three So it's going to be it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a trade off. And as that as the

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Speaker 1: activity data sours, I think the pressure will come off

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Speaker 1: a little bit on the Bank that keeping the pace

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Speaker 1: of rate hikes high, sort of in the seventy fifty range.

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Speaker 1: I think it will give them room to drop down.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, I don't think they're going to

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Speaker 1: be able to stop until inflation is clearly on a

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Speaker 1: downward trajectory, but the pressure to go big meeting after

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Speaker 1: meeting will drop significantly. What about the mortgage market and

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Speaker 1: all of this because it's you know, it's been because

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Speaker 1: there's the simplest read through that people have had from

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Speaker 1: the market turmoil. Anyway, how much does that factor into

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Speaker 1: a Bank of England decision of what's happening in terms

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Speaker 1: of the housing market. Well, I think it will factoring

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Speaker 1: quite significantly, and particularly will give them reason to think

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Speaker 1: that the near term outlook will be potentially weaker than

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Speaker 1: they were expecting in August, and I think it will

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Speaker 1: be reason for them to be a little bit more

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Speaker 1: pessimistic about demand outlook in the near term. That's something

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Speaker 1: that will be interesting to see how they characterize what

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Speaker 1: they think will go on with the housing market in

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Speaker 1: the near term. Okay, Valerie title, our Markets reporter and

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Speaker 1: Dan Hanson, Senior UK economist at Bloomberg Economics. Thank you

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Speaker 1: to you both for your insights. Stephen, thanks a lot.

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Speaker 1: Just to hit on Bloomberg Deybreak weekend. Why so many

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Speaker 1: are keeping a close eye on a big financial meeting

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Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. I'm John Tucker. This is Bloomberg Broadcasting

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Speaker 1: live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six, one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine

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Speaker 1: sixty to the country, Sirius XM Chando one nineteen to London,

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Speaker 1: d A B. Digital Radio and around the globe the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg day Break Weekend. I'm John Tucker in New York

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Speaker 1: with your global look ahead of the top stories for

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Speaker 1: investors in the coming week. Big finance gathering coming in

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong and for more. Let's go to Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: and Bloomberg day Break Asia host Brian Curtis and his

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Speaker 1: colleague Doug Krisner. John coming up in Hong Kong. The

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Speaker 1: Global Financial Leader's Investment Summit. Not as snappy a title

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Speaker 1: as a vision quest or burning man. But this summit

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Speaker 1: is meant to get Hong kong It's financial mojo back

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Speaker 1: after a period of hibernation, and a number of financial

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Speaker 1: heavyweights will certainly be there, among them Goldman Sachs CEO

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Speaker 1: David Solomon and Morgan Stanley boss James Gorman. Why are

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Speaker 1: they attending and what is Hong Kong hoping to achieve

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Speaker 1: and what role will U S sanctions play? Some Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong leaders, like the Chief Executive John Lee, are covered

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Speaker 1: by U S sanctions against Hong Kong and Chinese officials

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Speaker 1: for the crackdown here on political freedoms. Lee has said

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Speaker 1: he laughs off those u S sanctions. Joining us now

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Speaker 1: for some insight on the forum is Bloomberg Senior editor

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Speaker 1: Richard Frost. Richard, thanks very much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: So the panels are themed on three areas, navigating through uncertainty, technology, innovation,

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Speaker 1: and the future of finance and sustainable finance. All these

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Speaker 1: are quite interesting, but as mentioned at the top there,

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Speaker 1: the real story is Hong Kong getting back on its feet.

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Speaker 1: How big is the buy in from some of the

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Speaker 1: big financial institutions. As you mentioned at the star, it's

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Speaker 1: it's a sort of all star lineup really for this

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Speaker 1: it's been very heavily pushed by Hong Kong. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: there's been quite a lot of strong arming um from

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Speaker 1: authorities here. It was first announced by the Finance Secretary

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Speaker 1: in his budget earlier this year, and Hong Kong has

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Speaker 1: done a lot to try and ensure that um it

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Speaker 1: got as many attendees as possible. When it was announced,

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Speaker 1: there was still mandatory hotel quarantine, and in recent months

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Speaker 1: it's removed that. It's made a number of concessions two attendees,

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Speaker 1: including allowing them to fly out if they if they

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Speaker 1: get COVID, if necessary, to leave the city by private jet,

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Speaker 1: because Hong Kong really wants to show that after more

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Speaker 1: than two years in self imposed isolation, it's back on

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Speaker 1: the global stage, and so having all these heavyweights come

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Speaker 1: in it really underlines that point. How has the pandemic

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Speaker 1: change the banking and financial services industry in Hong Kong.

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Speaker 1: We've heard stories about flight of talent in some pockets

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Speaker 1: of the industry. I mean, it's been described as a

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Speaker 1: significant amount of brain drainage. How does it stack up?

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Speaker 1: There has been a notable exodus of residents and bankers

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Speaker 1: and lawyers, etcetera among them. I mean, Hong Kong had

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Speaker 1: is population dropped by a record one point six percent

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Speaker 1: in the in the twelve months through June. Banks retain

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Speaker 1: a very significant presence here. Nonetheless, UM and their regional

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Speaker 1: headquarters remain remain in Hong Kong, so in in some

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Speaker 1: ways UM it's not UM. It's not affected the presence

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Speaker 1: of banks, but it's certainly made the city a much

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Speaker 1: less appealing place to live in. UM and Singapore in particular,

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Speaker 1: has stolen a march on Hong Kong by trying to

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Speaker 1: attract the wealthier, wealthier workers. It rolled out new visas

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Speaker 1: UH and and it's It's also been hosting a number

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Speaker 1: of high profile events prior to Hong Kong to to

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Speaker 1: really show that UM that to show how it could

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Speaker 1: rival Hong Kong in terms of being an international finance center. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and on that point, we just had the Party Congress

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Speaker 1: wrap up in in China. It was seen as disappointing,

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Speaker 1: partially because it seemed national security issues came to the

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Speaker 1: form over UM say the economy. I'm curious, though, does

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Speaker 1: that work for or against Hong Kong's future it's I

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Speaker 1: mean that that remains to be seen. It's certainly interesting

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Speaker 1: timing for for all the attendees coming to Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: for this summit. It's against the landscape of blasted, blasted

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Speaker 1: kind of market for Chinese assets. We saw huge sell

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Speaker 1: off on Monday in the wake of the National Congress

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Speaker 1: on concern overseas increased control over the nation's top a

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Speaker 1: cool bodies and Hong Kong is going to the scene.

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Speaker 1: Is going to be remaining as a gateway to China.

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Speaker 1: But with China changing itself and increasingly closing off it

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Speaker 1: remains We've seen how much business um that banks and

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Speaker 1: others can access. Will China continue to put up walls

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Speaker 1: or that continued opening up? All right, Richard, thanks so

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Speaker 1: much for joining us. Interesting inside Bloomberg Senior Editor Richard Frost,

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Speaker 1: and I'm Brian Curtis here in Hong Kong along with

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Speaker 1: Doug Krisner. By the way, you can catch us every

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Speaker 1: weekday for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, beginning at six am in

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong and six pm on Wall Street. John, Brian

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Speaker 1: and Doug thanks a lot and just a head on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. A lot of twists and turns in

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Speaker 1: US politics as the mid terms approach. I'm John Tucker.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our global

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Speaker 1: look ahead at the top stories for investors in the

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Speaker 1: coming week. I'm John Tucker in New York. Clark is

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Speaker 1: taking on the mid terms, and it's a fast moving

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Speaker 1: and rapidly shifting dynamic. For more. Lets into our Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: ninety on one newsroom at Washington and Amy Morris Amy,

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Speaker 1: that's right, John, We are approaching what some may be

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Speaker 1: calling the height of the political silly season. It's kind

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Speaker 1: of an anything goes sort of atmosphere. Joining me now

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Speaker 1: to talk about it, Bloomberg political reporter Ryan Teague Beck

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Speaker 1: with Ryan, it's great to see. Thanks so much for

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Speaker 1: joining us anytime. Let's talk about the polls. There was

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Speaker 1: a poll out this past week with President Biden's approval

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Speaker 1: ratings dipping down to thirty nine percent. It's a Reuters

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Speaker 1: Ipsos poll that puts the president's writing almost the lowest

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Speaker 1: of his presidency. Um and we're getting closer and closer

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Speaker 1: in November eight. So how bad does this bode for

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Speaker 1: Democratic midterm candidates, especially the ones he's been campaigning for

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Speaker 1: or does it do people pay attention anymore? You know,

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Speaker 1: it's a weird um phenomenon, But it does seem that

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Speaker 1: the presidential approval rating is not as closely tied to

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Speaker 1: the generic congressional ballot. Uh. It's certainly not good for

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Speaker 1: Democrats for Biden to not be more popular than he is. Um,

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Speaker 1: it remains to be seen how much of a drag

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Speaker 1: it will actually be. I don't know, it feels it

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Speaker 1: feels a little bit disconnected, and I'm not sure why

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Speaker 1: that is. Have you seen that before? I mean, we

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Speaker 1: saw that a little bit with Trump. Obviously, like Trump

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Speaker 1: lost re election even as people voted for a lot

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Speaker 1: of Republicans down ballot, So there were a lot of

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Speaker 1: people who are able to make that separation. And it's

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Speaker 1: kind of a shift too, I think. And some of

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Speaker 1: these we're seeing some potential for crossover voting in governor

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Speaker 1: states with governor and senate races at the same time,

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Speaker 1: where like they there seems to be a significant number

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Speaker 1: of people who are willing to vote for Republican for

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Speaker 1: governor and then for a Democrat for senator or vice versa,

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Speaker 1: which is unusual because we had been moving more in

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Speaker 1: this direction, a kind of lockstep partisanship, and that there

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Speaker 1: may be a few races, including something that could be decisive,

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Speaker 1: where that may not happen. Now, let's talk about one

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Speaker 1: of those races that that maybe a toss up. It's

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Speaker 1: pretty tight. The Oz Fetterman debate that's going on or

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Speaker 1: that went on this past week in Pennsylvania. Lieutenant Governor

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Speaker 1: John Fetterman at the debate, I just want to play

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Speaker 1: what he had to say because the big overriding issue

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Speaker 1: for them has been that he had a stroke and

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Speaker 1: what his health might mean for the future in that office.

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Speaker 1: And so he addressed it elephant in the room. I

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Speaker 1: think he called it. Let's see what he had to say.

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Speaker 1: I had a stroke. He's never let me forget that,

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Speaker 1: And I might miss some words during this debate two

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Speaker 1: words together, but it knocked me down and I'm going

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Speaker 1: to keep coming back up, all right. So tell me

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Speaker 1: the response to that is it does it say something

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Speaker 1: that he was that open and transparent and pushed it

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Speaker 1: forward because even saying that, um the line he's never

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Speaker 1: let me forget that, that all tries to paint Dr

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Speaker 1: Oz as a bully, and I wonder if that's going

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Speaker 1: to come back to bide him or help him. You know.

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Speaker 1: I think ultimately he could have had a stronger performance

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Speaker 1: in terms of being able to show that he's able

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Speaker 1: to talk. I think that concerned that people had was like, boy,

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Speaker 1: you know, the whole point of a senators that you

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Speaker 1: get there and you give speeches, which isn't exactly accurate anymore.

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Speaker 1: But that is a genuine concern, and I think that

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Speaker 1: the Federman campaign mishandled it early on by not being

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Speaker 1: more transparent. I think Oz also overplayed his hand a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Um, and I think that the the pushback

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Speaker 1: there has helped soften that a little bit for the

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Speaker 1: Feederman campaign. Um. I don't think it was a good

433
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 1: night for Fetterman. But I also think, like Oz, for example,

434
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 1: his answer on abortion did not do him any favor.

435
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: Let's listen to that answer, at least in part. I

436
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: want women doctors, local political leaders, letting the democracy that's

437
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 1: always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best

438
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,919
Speaker 1: ideas forward so states can decide for themselves, all right,

439
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: explain pick at a part. I just think that the

440
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: answer itself is fairly to rigor, and I think he's

441
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 1: basically saying in that that he doesn't want to go

442
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 1: to the Congress and make decisions on abortion. He wants

443
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 1: to leave that at the local level, which is probably

444
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 1: a good argument for him. But the combination of women,

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00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,639
Speaker 1: their doctors, and local political leaders, I think was just

446
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: not It's just such an image that it pops up

447
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 1: in your head of like standing there in the doctor's

448
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: office with like the mayor or something like. It just

449
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 1: I don't think it did him any favors. I think

450
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: it's not. Uh, it's kind of more of what you

451
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: might think of as like a gaff, like in the

452
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 1: traditional sense, but back when we had gaffs and they mattered. Um.

453
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: But it's certainly anything on that issue, which he's been

454
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 1: very careful to avoid the pitfalls that I think some

455
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: other Republicans have rushed headlong into um on an issue

456
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 1: that has the potential to turn out voters in some states.

457
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: You said something important back when we had gaffs and

458
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: they mattered. I know you were being tongue in cheek,

459
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: but let me pull on that. I'm not being like,

460
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 1: I really mean that. Okay, let me pull on that

461
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,679
Speaker 1: for a second, because if we are so divided, and

462
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: we're so entrenched in our own parties and what we

463
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: already think are do we need debates anymore? People have

464
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: made up their minds, haven't they. You know. I mean,

465
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: I'm a political reporter, so I'm always going to be

466
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: pro debate, and I think that skipping a debate is damaging.

467
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: And I think that that not being willing to show

468
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 1: up and and debate your opponent is not a good look.

469
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: And I think that you've seen that in Arizona. Katie Hobbs,

470
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: who is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee UH declined to interview

471
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 1: to a debate Carry Lake, who was very good at

472
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 1: debating in the Republican primaries UM and I and and

473
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 1: Lake successfully used that against her. And I think that

474
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: if she loses that race, I think that will be

475
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: something people will point to and say that was a mistake.

476
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: Of course, if she'd done the debate and done poorly,

477
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 1: they would also pointed to it instead it was a mistake.

478
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 1: But I do think that you can among a certain

479
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 1: sliver of independent voters just hearing that you were unwilling

480
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: to debate, it just doesn't It doesn't sit well. And

481
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:18,199
Speaker 1: and also I think that like really debates don't matter

482
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: that much. Like I think that candidates who shy away

483
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 1: from them are shying away from something where the time

484
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: it doesn't make a difference. So you might as well

485
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 1: do it, because you might as well do it. I mean,

486
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: I think that the one thing you're trying to avoid

487
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: is just that that one really bad answer, and and

488
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 1: there are times when that happens. I mean, Terry mcculliffe,

489
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 1: like had a really bad answer on parent choice in

490
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 1: the gubernatorial race in Virginia, and I think that that

491
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 1: really really hurt him in the waning days of it.

492
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 1: I think in some ways you might avoid that by

493
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: doing more debates, Like the more debates there are, the

494
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 1: less in any one of them seems all that important. Um,

495
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 1: and the better at debating you get, uh, you know.

496
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: I think in Oz Vetterman that was one of the

497
00:27:57,680 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: rare cases where people were really going to be watching

498
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 1: it closely. Oz is obviously good on TV, we expected

499
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 1: him to do well. Fetterman did not have a great

500
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: track record in debates before, and uh, you know, people

501
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: were going to be watching him very carefully. I think

502
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: it was a little bit reminiscent of what you see

503
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 1: with Biden where conservatives will tend to look at Biden's

504
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 1: stuttering and verbal missteps and say, look, there's something wrong

505
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 1: with him, He's not up to the job, and Democrats

506
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: largely blow it off. I think in in this particular case,

507
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,479
Speaker 1: i'mlike with Biden, I think that there were some independent

508
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: voters would be looking at it and saying, you know,

509
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 1: is he up for the job? So does it surprise

510
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 1: you that it is as tight as it is? And

511
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: that's not the only race that's tight, I mean, and

512
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: they're so neck and neck. This is this is the

513
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: season for making your predictions about a sleeper race and

514
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: hoping that no one remembers the ones you got wrong.

515
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: But like, Republicans right now are putting money in New

516
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 1: Hampshire where you know, you would normally think that they

517
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: wouldn't have a chance, especially with putting money in New Hampshire. Yeah,

518
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: there's a Senate candidate there, Don Bullduck, who is um

519
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: prone to saying some pretty goofy things, and he's running

520
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: against an establishment Democrat with strong name I d who

521
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 1: you know normally does pretty well. And you know, Republicans

522
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: are putting money in that race right now and trying

523
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 1: to prop up Don Baldock, who's own campaign doesn't have

524
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 1: the kind of money to do that. UM. I don't

525
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 1: tend to think that one's gonna work out for Republicans,

526
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: but it's a smart play for them because it's a

527
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 1: small amount of money with a potential big payoff. UM.

528
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: And if it's a wave election, you know, try to

529
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 1: snag as many of those as you can because you've

530
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: got those Senate seats for six years, so you know,

531
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 1: if you're if you're going to do it, do it. UM.

532
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: I don't tend to think that one's going to work

533
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 1: out for them, But there's other Uh, there's some other

534
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 1: races that I'm watching that are governors racist. I'm super

535
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: curious to see what happens in Wisconsin. I think that

536
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: Ron Johnson seems to have the sen At race locked

537
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 1: down there, but the governor's race could be a toss

538
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: up UM, and they could be one of those states

539
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: where the Democratic incumbent wins re election UM, as does

540
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 1: the Republican senator. Wisconsin's very weird state, very polarized UM,

541
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 1: but the incumbents may both win there, even though that's

542
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: kind of a split decision party wise. UM. Keeping an

543
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 1: eye on Arizona just because it's in terms of election denial,

544
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: it's a hotbed the governors Canadas for governor, senator, attorney general,

545
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 1: and Secretary of State, which overseas elections are all election

546
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: deniers and not just normal election deniers. But Mark Fincham

547
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: is running for secretary of State is probably like the

548
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: pre eminent election denier. Uh. And they've all basically said

549
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 1: that they would use their position to try to influence

550
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: the outcome a future election. So uh, Fincham wants to

551
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: get rid of using machines to count ballots in a

552
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: state like Arizona. It would take week and and thousands

553
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 1: of people to hand count all the ballots. Um. Hand

554
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 1: counting ballots is also not accurate, not as accurate as machines,

555
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: more expensive and more time consuming. It's a nightmare. Um.

556
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:19,479
Speaker 1: So you know, he could really throw things uh at

557
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: future elections into all kinds of chaos there, as could

558
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: the governor candidate carry Lake. All right, Ryan, thank you

559
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 1: so much. Anytime. Ian D. Beckwith is Bloomberg political correspondent,

560
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: and that's what's going on in the nation's capital. For

561
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 1: more of our political news coverage, you can tune into

562
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: Balance of Power with David weston weekdays at noon Wall

563
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 1: Street Time, and Soundong with Joe Matthew weekdays five pm

564
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: Wall Street Time. Right here on Bloomberg Radio, I'm Amy

565
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,959
Speaker 1: Morris and this is Bloomer John Amy Morris, reporting from

566
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: our Bloomberg newsroom in Washington. Amy thanks a lot, and

567
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 1: that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend.

568
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: Join us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street

569
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 1: Time for the latest markets overseas and the news you

570
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: need to start your day. I'm John Tucker and this

571
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg