WEBVTT - Benny vs The Penny, Round 4 0:00:01.240 --> 0:00:10.040 Welcome players, You're welcome. Are it's time now, Penny Penny, 0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:13.640 that it is. We are back at it, trying to 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.800 make you money and trying not to embarrass ourselves picking 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:20.040 NFL games as we head into week four and now 0:00:20.079 --> 0:00:23.520 we already had the Thursday night game. You know the 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:26.960 outcome there, We had the Eagles. Uh, that was the 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:29.080 the pick. We picked the Eagles on the game. So 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:31.560 we'll we'll we'll get into the rest of the weekend. 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:33.840 Now we will not be talking about the Jets. They 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:36.480 are not playing, will not be talking about the forty Niners. 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:39.200 Jets are oh in three forty Niners or three and oh, 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:41.440 but those are the teams we've started the bye weeks. 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:43.760 And there's only two teams that are by on the 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:45.440 bye week this week, so we're gonna talk about them. 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:48.120 But guess God is with me on this now. Guest Gone, 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.599 you are the keeper of the stats. Before we look forward, 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.920 we must look back and see how we did here 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.960 as we try to buck the odds and pick winners 0:00:58.040 --> 0:01:01.600 and and all that in the NFL. And so the 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:05.839 question here Gascon is how did we do pressing our luck? 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:08.920 Pressing our luck a week ago? Man? It was a 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:11.760 bounce back week for you versus the Penny, and it 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:15.240 was a dynamite Week number three you are twelve up 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.000 and just four down. And week number three, that's a 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:23.920 job that this is three. By the way, this is 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:30.280 tried too and tested. Week week one you were thirteen 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:32.520 and three and then week number three twelve and four. 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:34.880 So that is lights out for two to three weeks. 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:37.840 We will forget Week two. I was my week too, right, 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:41.120 it was like six, six and ten. Yeah, so I 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:43.080 was four under five hundred then, but I'm way over 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:45.200 five hundred on the year, like if you bet every game, 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:47.280 which you shouldn't do. Yeah, And I think the biggest 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:49.640 thing for you is that you finally got away after 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:51.880 two weeks. You finally got away from the Miami Dolphins, 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:56.720 finally divorced yourself from that. Yeah. I learned a valuable, 0:01:57.080 --> 0:01:59.880 valuable lesson there. And for those that are new to 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:01.920 this podcast, many versus the Penny. We did this on 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.640 radio probably for fifteen years or so, we did many 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:08.040 versus the Penny, but I feel like it works better 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:13.120 here on the podcast because I would I'm obsessive with 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:15.799 these notes, right, I I try to absorb all this material, 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:17.800 So I wouldn't I would put a lot of time 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:21.080 handicapping these dopey games, and I wouldn't be able to 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:23.440 get it all out there because we because on the radio, 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:25.360 we have time restraints that we don't have on the 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.440 podcast and all that. So my advice has always been 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:30.280 people email me from time to time they say, well, 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:32.160 what's this all about? Should I just bet every game? No, 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:35.000 you should not bet every game. Your money management is 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.480 the key to gambling. It's becoming more popular. But money 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:42.079 management is important here. But it's also the way I 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:44.040 look at this is that you you. I will give 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:46.679 you my opinion on the game. Now, if my opinion 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:49.239 aligns with your opinion, that's a game you should probably 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:52.400 been on because we agree. But and and sometimes we 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:54.359 maybe I'll be able to twist your mind around doing 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:58.080 mind mind hack and be able to twist you around 0:02:58.120 --> 0:03:00.160 and do a different way. But so so that's how 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.120 you should do betty versus Penny. But let's get right 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:04.120 into it. We I did bring back some questions. I 0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:06.679 got some complaints of people, Hey, you didn't put any 0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:10.040 dopey questions in. So we'll get trivial, which is a 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:12.799 word uni Loony used to say to me when I 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.600 would do the instant trivia and all that, and so again. 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:18.040 The goal this year that we're pressing our luck. Big money. 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:22.600 We want big money. No wammies, no wammies. All right, 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:29.120 all right, here we go Carolina at Houston one in 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:32.280 two versus two and one. It's on Fox with Kenny 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:36.520 Albert and Ronde Barber. The Texans opened a four point favorite. 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:38.280 There a four and a half point favorite. The pick 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:41.560 is in. I'm gonna take the Carolina Panthers here. Now 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:44.120 a couple of reasons why I know people are not 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:47.080 buying what Kyle Allen is selling. He only played one 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:51.400 game here this year, but he pitched a gem in 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:56.000 Arizona last week. This is a much more difficult test. 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:59.640 I believe the value is on the side of Carolina. 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:02.800 The pa there's played a complete game last week. They 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:05.960 will look to use that obviously, is a catalyst there 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:09.440 to chest springboard their season back to after losing back 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:10.880 to back home games. How do you make up for 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.320 a home loss win a game on the road. That's 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:16.680 how how you do it? Uh. And then secondly, when 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:19.320 you bet on the Texas, you're dependent on Deshaun Watson, 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:22.720 which Deshaun Watson will show up. Watson has been like 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:27.920 the volatile stock, right up and down and all the round. Uh. 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:31.240 For example, he played like flatulence against Jacksonville a couple 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:34.839 of weeks back, and then was dominant Deshaun Watson against 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:37.760 the Chargers in l A this past week. But that 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:42.240 lack of consistency is disturbing as a gambler, and the 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:46.599 Panthers have an above average pass rush. We know the 0:04:46.640 --> 0:04:50.360 offensive line for the Texas has much maligned and whatnot. 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.920 I expect this to be a fifty fifty game, which 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:55.640 means gonna be a tight game, even though it's not 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.200 a divisional game, it's an interconference game. But I'm really 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:01.680 banking on the act that I'm right that Kyle Allen 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:05.240 is a at least a slightly above average quarterback, that 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:08.359 he's somehow got the cheek code here and teams haven't 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:10.760 figured him out yet. And if I'm right about that 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:14.800 and everything was better because of Kyle allen better quarterback play, 0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:17.120 then Carolina will be in the winner circles. I think 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.160 they win the game out right. I don't need the points. 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:27.360 I'll take two points. Carolina Houston. Unlike you, the Penny 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:30.200 likes to Shan Watson will take the Houston Texans. Be 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:32.760 sure to catch live editions of The Ben Miller Show 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:36.080 weekdays at two a m. Eastern eleven pm Pacific on 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:39.320 Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. All right, 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:45.400 let's get trivial. Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield five interceptions in 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:48.160 the fourth quarter through the first three weeks of the season. 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:52.039 That is tied with Blank for the most by any 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.200 quarterback over his team's first three games of a season 0:05:55.200 --> 0:06:00.160 in the last twenty five years. Again, Baker Mayfield five 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.960 interceptions in the fourth quarter this year, tied with Blank, 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:07.160 the most by any qb over the first three games 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:08.720 of the season in the past twenty five years. I'll 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.320 fill in the blank in a couple of minutes. So 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:13.400 if you have the answer, just hold onto it. Just 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:17.000 hold on to it. Next up, Cleveland at Baltimore. It's 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:21.640 on CUBAZ with Greg Gumbel and Trent Green. The Ravens 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:25.400 opened up a five point favorite. They are a seven 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:28.920 point favorite at home in Maryland. Give me Sonny and 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:33.040 eighties six degrees at kickoff at M ANDT Bank Stadium. 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:35.960 I'm taking the Brownies in this game, I'm gonna take Cleveland. 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:39.279 I know that's not the popular pick by popular people, 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:42.039 but I'll tell you why. First of all, Cleveland, they're 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:44.200 in the eye of the storm right now. This offseason 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:48.680 makeover has not paid dividends, obviously, yet they're under five hundred. 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:51.280 They had some embarrassing losses to start the year. Here 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:55.520 this would be the perfect time to turn the ship around. 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:59.200 Here with Baker Mayfield, who has been a total bust 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:04.120 of an abject failure at quarterback. He'ste and bad throws 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:06.640 in the NFL. I'm surprised he's not higher than that. 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:09.920 But it's not like the receivers have dropped that many passes. 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.800 They dropped six passes, but that that number wouldn't go 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:16.760 up that much. Baker Mayfield's completing fifty six point nine 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:20.240 percent of his passes. That is worst among quarterbacks who 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:22.480 have started three games. There's no one worse than Baker 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:25.920 Mayfield as far as accuracy. His quarterback rating of seventy 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:29.440 is also dead last in the NFL garbage So why 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:32.000 am I taking the Cleveland Browns? Why would I do that? 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:34.480 Because I don't believe in the Ravens defense and any 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:37.600 there's a scenario where Mayfield can have a breakoud game. 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:41.000 The Ravens defense is a soft spot there. Twenty seven 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:45.480 and past defense ahead of the Dolphins by three yards. 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:49.120 All right, they're barely ahead of the Dolphins. This is 0:07:49.120 --> 0:07:53.240 an opportunity for Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry to abuse 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:57.000 that secondary. But Mayfield's gotta get him the ball. There's 0:07:57.000 --> 0:08:00.360 gonna be open receivers here. There's gonna be chunk plays, big, 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:03.000 big yardage place here for the Browns this week. They 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:05.640 gotta take advantage now. The second thing and you know, 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:09.160 the end of the yang here is Lamar Jackson. Uh. 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:11.880 The story is the first two weeks, Lamar Jackson has 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:14.720 has come come of age. He's evolved. He's he's now 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:18.960 a legit passing quarterback. Well, based on last week, that 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:23.240 looks like smoking mirrors against He put up those great 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:26.960 numbers against horseship teams, the Dolphins and the Cardinals, and 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.360 then he got smashed around by the Vanilla Kansas City 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.960 Chiefs defense. He was atrocious. Not only was the quarterback, 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:36.520 he was a trocy hadn't uh you know, no touchdowns 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:40.960 last week, no touchdown passes average barely six yards per attempt, 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:45.800 barely fifty completion percentage, and had a passer rating of seventy. 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:49.640 And that's that's that's the old Lamar Jackson from last year. 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:53.240 That kind of performance that you expected, and and and 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.360 the other thing. You're the reason like the Browns. Browns 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:58.080 have a pretty good defense, pretty good even the tenth 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:03.160 best past the fence in the NFL. Cleveland. You look 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:06.640 at this here, they really they the two games they 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:09.520 lost here, they had some issues. They played well against 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:12.760 the Jets, a bad team. Obviously the Ravens a better team. 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:14.600 But if the if the Browns can win this game. 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:16.360 The last time they get off to a two start 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:22.600 on the road was all right, n uh. In this rivalry, 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:25.800 the road team has covered twelve of the last eight team. 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:28.640 But as we say every week, one of the mantras 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.719 of our show Benny versus the penny. Anytime you get 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:34.280 over seven points in a divisional game. Divisional games are 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:38.079 usually closer. You don't ask questions, you take two points, 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:40.360 You put a smile on your face. Browns will win 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:47.160 this game out right, Browns twenty four Ravens twenty penny 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.160 is telling you here and going with the Cleveland Browns. 0:09:49.480 --> 0:09:51.800 Be sure to catch live editions of The Ben Meller 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:55.040 Show weekdays at two a m. Eastern eleven pm Pacific. 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:59.360 Let's pay off the Let's get trivial question. Baker Mayfield 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.240 five in or exceptions in the fourth quarter, tied with 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:06.000 blank for the most by any quarterback over the first 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:08.079 three games of the season in the past twenty five years. 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:10.360 What's your answer, guest? Normally I think you'd go with 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:12.480 a Manning here, but I will go deeper into the 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:15.719 pocket and I'll say Brett Farve. Yeah, Brett far is 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:18.840 not a bad option. He would be at the tail 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.120 end of that last twenty five year run. Actually not 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.160 the tail and the second half of his career. That's 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:30.360 that's not it. Uh. It is Ryan fitzpatro Yan Fitzpatrick. 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:35.000 And it was only a couple of years ago. Uh boy, 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:37.320 it's hard to I think he was in Buffalo. He's 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:41.240 changes teams every year. He changes teams like Floyd maywe 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:44.440 their changes underwear. It's a daily experience, al right. Next up, 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:47.000 keep the train moving. Gascon wants to go quick. He 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:49.679 wants to get the hell out of here. Washington, oh 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.880 and three at the New York Giants one and two. 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:57.360 It's on Fox. You Better wash. Tom Brennan and Chris 0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:01.160 Spielman on the call. Here. The Giants opened a three 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:03.520 point favorite, actually a two point favorite. There a three 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:08.560 point favorite. The weather mild whether seventies seven agrees, mostly 0:11:08.559 --> 0:11:13.800 sunny in Jersey at MetLife Stadium, scheduled for kickoff. I've 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.400 gone back and forth in this game, but ultimately i 0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:18.520 decided that I'm gonna take the Giants. I don't like 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:20.960 this per se because I'm going with the public. Uh 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:24.400 And and there's an obsession with Danny dimes mania here 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:28.120 Daniel Jones, who gave the Giants franchise a shot of 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:32.840 adrenaline for a team that was in disarray. But remember, 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:35.839 the perception would be much different here. If Tampa May 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:39.000 makes that field goal, You'll be like, well, he played well, 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:41.360 but they didn't win the game. Right. He would have 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:43.800 eaten an l in his maiden voyage as a quarterback. 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:48.000 But Jones, he was he was the only bugaboos. He 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.640 He fumbled a couple of times, and and you fumble, 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:53.080 you know that's a fifty fifty thing when you fumble 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:56.120 and all that. But I read a stat that Pro 0:11:56.200 --> 0:12:01.640 Football Focus had that since they've been around doun. Daniel 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:05.319 Jones is the first quarterback ever pressured at least twelve 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:08.960 times that had a perfect passer rating. So he was 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:12.400 cool under pressure. Who is a cucumber as the old 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:16.120 cliche goes, And he was pressured one percent of his 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:18.760 snaps last week, So I bring that up. You know, 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:20.920 the Redskins do not have a great defense. They're trying 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:24.480 to redeem themselves here. That's the second thing embarrassed on 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.120 National TV. They're down twenty eight to nothing to the 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:30.959 Chicago Bears. Uh and so it's great that they want 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:34.040 to bounce back, but can they Like Washington is a 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:37.280 team that is a hot mess. They play hard for 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:41.000 Jay Gruden. They have some grit, they have some pesky players, 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.560 but you gotta have talent and they are lacking in 0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:48.360 that department. If one player sums up the Redskins, it's 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:52.600 Landon Collins. Landing Collins is the guy that the Redskins 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:55.640 just made the highest paid safety in NFL history give 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:59.120 at eighty four million dollar contract. So far this season, 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:04.040 the highest is paid safety in NFL history has zero interceptions, 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:10.880 zero fumbles, force, zero sacks, zero passes defended, and he's 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.760 also missed a bunch of tackles. You talk about a 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:17.840 return on investment for for the Redskins from landing Collins 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:22.559 and in the Washington secondary has been been embarrassing. I 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:26.080 believe that Daniel Jones will play very well in this game. 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:28.120 He'll put up his numbers, he will turn the ball 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.400 over a couple of times. It'll be a back and forth, 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:32.880 high scoring game. Redskins will put up some points against 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:37.360 the soft cheese Giants defense. But in the end, Giants 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:44.000 thirty four, Redskins thirty penny, who's going with the g man. 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:47.080 Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:50.120 the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:53.280 Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.360 search f s R to listen live. All right. Next 0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:59.400 up the LA Chargers at the Miami Dolphins. It's on CBS. 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:02.720 Tom Carthy and Jay Feely will have a lot of 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.600 garbage time here. Dolphins owing three charges, one and two 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:08.480 line on this game open at sixteen. It's anywhere from 0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:10.520 sixteen to sixteen and a half. The line I have 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.239 says sixteen, so we'll use that. Uh and I am 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.480 gonna take the charges here. I'm gonna take the charges. 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.360 I don't love this pick per se, but the Chargers 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:24.120 because they've been malingering. They have, they've been in games, 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:27.320 they've lost here, but they've made some some stupid place 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:31.080 Philip Rivers in particularly late in games, the old war horse, 0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:35.200 Philip Rivers, the old veteran. The Chargers ranked fifth in 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:37.680 the NFL in total yards, but there are twenty one 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:41.000 in points per game, so there's a lack of execution 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.440 in the red zone. And Philip Rivers has been great 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:47.400 for three quarters. He can't put that fourth quarter uh 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:51.160 stigma behind the first three quarters, Rivers is completing over 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:56.240 seventy of his passes no interception, but in the fourth 0:14:56.320 --> 0:15:01.720 quarter he's completing barely fifty of his path no touchdowns, 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:04.280 two interceptions. In the first three games of the year, 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:08.000 he's been back. Now the Miami game is usually an 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.680 extra bye week here, but you still have to show up. 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:16.560 Dating back the week seventeen of last season, the Dolphins, congratulations, 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:20.560 they have become the first team to lose four consecutive 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:24.240 games by at least twenty five points. You gotta go 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:28.440 back to the Boston Patriots in in the nineteen nineteen 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:32.800 sixty nine seasons, the last time that happens. So congratulations 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.760 to the Dolphins franchise. You've done a wonderful job. I 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:42.080 did find a positive. The Dolphins of their passes have 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:47.200 traveled over twenty yards down field, alright, twenty yards down here. 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:49.880 That's the highest in the NFL. Of course, most of 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:54.359 those passes dropped incomplete. And you've got Josh Rosen, who 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:56.960 I love how bad the Dolphins are that people are saying, well, 0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:59.840 Josh Rosen was a breath of fresh air. He had 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:03.800 a passer rating of seventy three and completed fifty of 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:08.000 his passes and is considered and no touchdowns at halftime, 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:10.360 and people say, oh, I'm very impressive, and all I mean, 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:14.160 it's ridiculous. Now. Typically I would say take the points, 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:15.920 take the points, don't bet the game, take the points. 0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:20.080 But the Dolphins aren't trying. They are not trying. The 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:22.120 Charges will be the desperate team here. They don't want 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:23.720 to start out one and three. One and three is 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:27.560 a bad situation. Two and two is acceptable. Chargers thirty 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:34.000 seven Dolphins seventy penny agrees with you. Going with the 0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:37.400 bolts all right. Next up, it's Penning versus the Penny 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:41.120 will keep the train moving. Oakland one and two at Indianapolis. 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:45.560 This game is on CBS and it's a game with 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.800 Kevin Harlan and Rich Gannon. They will call the game. 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:51.720 The Colts open a six point favorite. They are favored 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:57.360 by seven. The weather in this situation four degrees, not 0:16:57.400 --> 0:16:59.360 that it matters. It's in the dome, will be partly 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:03.360 sunny if you're in Indianapolis. The pick is in on 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.920 the Raiders and the Colts. I've gone back and forth 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:10.640 on this game, but ultimately I've I've landed on taking 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.480 the Raiders, and I'm gonna take the Raiders on the points, 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:15.840 and I understand any strategy here. They're gonna ride the 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:19.359 Marlon Mack Express train and they're gonna play close to 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.560 the vest with Jacobe Brissette, power running game and all 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.240 that stuff. UH and any should jump out to an 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:28.040 early lead. The Colts have been very good at home. 0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:30.119 They won their last seven home games going back to 0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:32.720 last year, back when Andrew Luck was there, and they 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.639 have not won eight consecutive games since the Peyton Manning 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:40.080 years back in the first decade of the two thousand's. 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:43.879 Here and so we'll see that the Raiders traditionally have 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:46.880 been terrible against the Colts in any they haven't won there. 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:48.400 They don't play that often, but they haven't won there 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:53.000 since and that was when our former Fox Sports Radio colleague, 0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:57.359 Jim Mora I was coaching and Rich Gannon was the 0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.960 Raiders quarterback the last time they won in Indianapolis. But 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:04.160 the reason that I the many reason I bet against 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:07.359 the Colts is the public is laying the lumber. This 0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:10.720 is one of the most lopsided games this weekend. Over 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:13.960 sevent of the bets have been on the Colts. I 0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:16.960 love to be a contrarian. I love to be against 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:19.960 the public and be on the side of the sharp guys. 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:23.760 So getting a touchdown with a team that is still 0:18:24.000 --> 0:18:26.679 trying to win. Unlike the Dolphins, I figured the Raiders 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:30.160 haven't completely given up hope. They're not a hopeless bunch yet, 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:32.879 even though they look like a Pop Warner team against 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:36.480 the Vikings last week, I expect a better effort, a 0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:38.760 more competitive game. You don't really get blown out back 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:41.639 to back games. So and also the Colts could be 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.560 looking ahead. I believe they play the Chiefs in Week five. 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.399 Indianapolis will win the game, but they won't cover the spread. 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:53.240 Colts twenty eight, Raiders twenty three. Not this time for 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:56.840 the penny. They like the Indianapolis Colts. All right, we'll 0:18:56.880 --> 0:18:59.000 keep it going. Next up Kansas City three and oh 0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:03.320 at Detroit to oh and one. It's on Fox. You 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:06.679 better watch Kevin Burkhardt and Charles Davis and the Fox 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.639 box that Rocks calling the game. The Chiefs opened to 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:12.320 six point favorite. They are currently a six and a 0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:15.960 half point favorite. I'm told this is the first game 0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:19.760 that Patrick Mahomes has played indoors as an NFL player. 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:21.720 He used to dominate when he was a Texas Tech 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.280 in dome environments, but this is the first time as 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:28.120 an NFL quarterback. The pick is in and I am 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:31.720 taking the Lions. I'm gonna take the Lions here to 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.600 cover the spread. And this is the ultimate contrarian pick here. 0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:40.159 It is uh. This is another acid test for Destroit. 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:42.840 The Lions defense. I feel like they have overachieved that 0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:45.359 some of the numbers are skewed because they gave up 0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:47.480 a bunch of points in the fourth quarter to tie 0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:52.160 the Cardinals. But now they go into the lab against 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:56.320 the Chiefs where Kansas City has scored twenty five or 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.920 more points in twenty five consecutive games. That's a long 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:04.840 his street in NFL history. But I actually like the 0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:08.520 Lions defense to hold their own here Trey Flowers and 0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:11.280 snacks Harrelson. When I say hold their own, I'm saying 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:15.320 that the Chiefs aren't gonna score fifty in this particular game. 0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:19.080 But you also have about a fifty percent chance to 0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:23.320 win a bet when you take around seven points. Through 0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:27.520 the first three games of the season, all right, forty 0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:31.399 seven point nine percent of NFL games have been decided 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:36.440 by six points or less. And uh, and so you've 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:38.879 got that working for you as well. And is this 0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:41.600 a letdown spot for Kansas City? Why would it be 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:44.240 a letdown spot? The Chiefs just won a big game 0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:46.879 against the Ravens last week, a game that many people 0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:49.920 had circled on the schedule earlier in the year. See 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:53.120 how they would do against Lamar Jackson. Now they play 0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:56.440 an NFC opponent, a team nobody gets up to play 0:20:56.440 --> 0:21:00.359 the Lions. And then you have another showcase game next 0:21:00.400 --> 0:21:03.880 week against the Colts, which is a bigger game for 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.960 Kansas City. Uh, She's still win the game. But I 0:21:08.000 --> 0:21:10.400 believe they'll give up some puts. The Chiefs defense will 0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:13.680 will regress here, and I'm not buying there. The real 0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:20.359 McCoy Chiefs thirty four, Lions twenty eight. No chance in 0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:22.359 hell of pennies following in this one. They're going with 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:28.120 Kansas City. You can have knocked yourself out with Kansas City, 0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:31.080 and the Chiefs should win the game by ten fifteen 0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:36.200 thousand points. But this Lions team, I like the way 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:39.760 they're playing right now. They're off the grid. Uh so 0:21:39.880 --> 0:21:41.840 I'm going with it. All right, let's get trivial again here. 0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:44.520 It's penny versus the penny. As you know from the podcast, 0:21:44.920 --> 0:21:50.320 Frank Gore was the leading rusher for either team in 0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:53.159 Buffalo's win over Cincinnati last week. Right, he led the 0:21:53.200 --> 0:21:55.600 game in rushing yards. At age thirty six, he is 0:21:55.640 --> 0:22:00.000 the oldest player to be leading rusher in an NFL 0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:04.919 game since Blank. All right, since Blank. Frank Gore, at 0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:07.600 age thirty six, the oldest player to lead an NFL 0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:10.000 game in rushing yards since Blank. Will give me the 0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:11.960 answer in a couple of minutes. Next up New England 0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:16.000 three and oh at Buffalo three and oh it's on CBS. 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:19.960 I an Eagle and Dan Fouts will be an Orchard Park, 0:22:20.000 --> 0:22:22.680 New York's gonna be a a nice day in in 0:22:22.680 --> 0:22:25.320 in Orchard Part, New York, sixty five degrees, mostly sunny. 0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:29.159 Patriots open a six point favorite. They are a seven 0:22:29.240 --> 0:22:31.719