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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. And this b Joey P joe P Zapia,

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Speaker 1: and this is BP NFL. It's Super Bowl Week and

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Speaker 1: it's time for our best bets. Andrew Erics and I

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Speaker 1: are here. And for those of you saying that we're homers,

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Speaker 1: only one of us is wearing a Patriots sweatshirt on

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Speaker 1: today's show. But here's a thing. I've seen some of

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Speaker 1: the YouTube comments, I've heard some of the noise. I'm

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Speaker 1: also the guy that was telling you an and I

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Speaker 1: won money on the New York Football Giants being the

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Speaker 1: Patriots in the Super Bowl. I also won money on

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Speaker 1: the Philadelphia Eagles, if you can believe it, or not

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Speaker 1: being the Patriots in the Super Bowl. This is about

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Speaker 1: one thing. This is about winning, not about who wins.

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Speaker 1: It's about us winning. That's what it is. It's us

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Speaker 1: against the books. That's what it always is here. That

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Speaker 1: being said, however we feel about this game is compartmentalized

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Speaker 1: as fans because this is business. Andrew, it's not personal.

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Speaker 1: That's how I'm entering this. I understand that a lot

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Speaker 1: of people, we talk to people on the street in

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Speaker 1: New Orleans. We had a whole fun thing there. It

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Speaker 1: was kind of split. I would say sixty forty Seattle

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Speaker 1: people were on. But the one thing that I'm still

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Speaker 1: tired of hearing about is the Seattle Seahawks defense and

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Speaker 1: not hearing about the Patriots defense mentioned in similar breath,

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Speaker 1: because statistically speaking, Patriots defense is pretty damn good, and

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Speaker 1: they have played incredible football the last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: and people want to say, well, look at the quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: they played against. You can only play who they put

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Speaker 1: in front of you. But Seattle has allowed sixteen or

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Speaker 1: fewer points in six of its past eight games. New

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Speaker 1: England has allowed sixteen or fewer points each of his

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Speaker 1: last five games. Seattle has the six ben's defense in

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Speaker 1: the NFL in terms of yards per game and a

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Speaker 1: league low seventeen point two points per game. But the

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Speaker 1: Ringle Patriots have an eighth best defense in two hundred

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Speaker 1: and ninety two excuse me, two hundred ninety five point

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Speaker 1: two yards per game, eighteen point eight points per game.

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Speaker 1: That's fourth best. So to me, if you want to

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Speaker 1: talk about defense, this is a much more inclusive conversation

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Speaker 1: your thoughts.

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Speaker 2: No, I agree, and that's why. I know that I

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Speaker 2: don't want to bury the lead here, but our picks

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Speaker 2: as we go to the totals, I like the under,

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Speaker 2: and you'd like the under in the game at forty

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Speaker 2: five and a half points, it kind of feels like

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Speaker 2: it's a bit in no man's land where a total

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Speaker 2: at this number is not projecting, Oh, this is going

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Speaker 2: to be a shootout, because that's usually when you get

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Speaker 2: to the four to eight and a half, forty nine

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Speaker 2: and a halfs or a fifty and a half point total,

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Speaker 2: those numbers usually scream okay, this game could get kind

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Speaker 2: of nutty here. We could see a lot of points

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Speaker 2: on both sides, versus like every Pittsburgh Steelers game where oh,

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Speaker 2: thirty nine and a half points, this game is going

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Speaker 2: to be a dud, or any Cleveland Browns home game.

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Speaker 2: So kind of teetering the line. So I do think

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Speaker 2: that there's value here going with the under if you

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Speaker 2: do think that both of these defenses prevail here. Good

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Speaker 2: Seattle is the four straight top ten defense the Patriots

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Speaker 2: have faced in the postseason, and their offense has not

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Speaker 2: looked that great.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I know that the weather has played a role in that,

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Speaker 2: but their offense is averaging under sixteen points per game. Again,

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Speaker 2: it's boosted overall by that pick six against the Houston Texans,

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Speaker 2: but offensively they're not scoring anywhere near twenty points per game.

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Speaker 2: The two defenses have allowed, on average this year eighteen

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Speaker 2: points per game eighteen plus eighteen. Quick through the math, Joe,

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Speaker 2: what is that? It's very under forty five and a

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Speaker 2: half points?

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, it is. Also just looking at the offensive too,

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Speaker 1: and how they stack up. Seattle the third most points

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Speaker 1: per game, yards per game, they were seventh, passing yards

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Speaker 1: per game, eighth. New England second in points per game,

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Speaker 1: they were third in yards per game, and they were

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Speaker 1: fourth in passing yards per game. So I just think

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Speaker 1: this is a little bit more even than people realize,

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Speaker 1: and that's gonna bring us right into our best bets here.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about the first one here. I'm in

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Speaker 1: on the under forty five and a half year in

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Speaker 1: the under, I'm getting it, but just by the chinny

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Speaker 1: chin chin, because my final is twenty four to twenty.

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Speaker 1: I do believe that's gonna be the final scorer of

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Speaker 1: this game. So I am just squeaking in to that under,

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Speaker 1: not by much. Andrew, why is it an under for you.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I've laid out here all the defenses and

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Speaker 1: how close they are. I do think there will be

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Speaker 1: some turnovers in this game too, and that stunts drives

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Speaker 1: and sometimes changes the dynamic of games. But let's talk

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Speaker 1: about your reasons of why you I think it's also

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Speaker 1: going to be an under in this one.

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Speaker 2: Two defensive minded head coaches going head to head, Mike

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Speaker 2: McDonald against Mike Rabel. They both come from defensive backgrounds,

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Speaker 2: and I think that matters a lot, because I don't

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Speaker 2: think that they open up the first quarter of the

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Speaker 2: game thinking, Okay, well, we have to score a ton

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Speaker 2: of points here to win this game. I think that

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Speaker 2: they both believe, hey, we have faith in our defense

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Speaker 2: and that if we keep this game tight, we can

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Speaker 2: win in the fourth quarter. So I think that's kind

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Speaker 2: of the mindset of both of these teams, especially with Ken.

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Speaker 2: Nobody wants to talk or shouldn't say, nobody wants to

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Speaker 2: talk about it's try being overblown. But both quarterbacks like

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Speaker 2: have these injuries that we don't know if they're real,

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Speaker 2: they're not real.

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Speaker 1: We're not really sure.

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Speaker 2: I guess we'll find out together whether these injuries mattered

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Speaker 2: or not. But it's just another reason to kind of

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Speaker 2: look at, okay, if it's a little bit lower scoring,

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Speaker 2: and to me to the optics of this game, it

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Speaker 2: just doesn't scream shootout, right. I think that's been the

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Speaker 2: least talked about narrative and potential path for this game

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Speaker 2: where I've heard a lot of shows again talking about

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Speaker 2: the Seattle Seahawks, a lot of media talking about the Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: ESPN fifty eight of their sixty let's pick the Seattle

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Speaker 2: Seahawks to win, and the two that pick the Patriots

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Speaker 2: were on the Patriots at one point. So again that's.

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Speaker 1: Been Bruski, and who was the other one, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I know definitely it was Bruski, but I know it

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Speaker 1: was brusk because I saw him talking about it on

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Speaker 1: another channel.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, But besides that type of point there, it's it

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Speaker 2: just doesn't seem unless the way I see it going

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Speaker 2: over is it barely just squeaks over where you get

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Speaker 2: like a twenty seven to twenty finish, so it's not

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Speaker 2: like a shootout or again, I think this is very

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Speaker 2: much in the range of outcomes. I do think that

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Speaker 2: there's a chance that Seattle does kill the Patriots, And

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Speaker 2: oh no, I guess it really was a cupcake schedule

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Speaker 2: for the newman the Patriots. All yeah, I do think

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Speaker 2: that that's possible. But my prediction question when we talk

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Speaker 2: about the spreads and the picks and who wins, I

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Speaker 2: think that the Patriots win in a tight game.

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Speaker 1: You know, Andrew. I'm also gonna say this too. Two

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Speaker 1: of the three opponents, or actually say both of the opponents,

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Speaker 1: not even two. Two of two that Seattle faced in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs were in division opponents from this year. So

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Speaker 1: those games are always so different in terms of the

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Speaker 1: way they play because all of those teams are always

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Speaker 1: built to face those indivision opponents. And they have handled

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Speaker 1: the forty nine ers time and time again like they

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Speaker 1: have figured out they've cracked the code, right, whatever it is.

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Speaker 1: With the forty nine ers, Seattle has their number. And

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Speaker 1: with the Rams, you always know what's going to be

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Speaker 1: a dogfight, like you know how it's gonna be. And

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Speaker 1: I think that there's something different too. Whenever you have

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Speaker 1: aud of conference games, they tend to play a little

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Speaker 1: bit differently, and when you have in division games, they

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Speaker 1: tend to play a little bit differently. The familiarity is

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Speaker 1: very important, I think to some of these totals that

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Speaker 1: you get sometimes, so I just want to throw that

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Speaker 1: out there for the listening audience as well. All right,

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Speaker 1: next one here, probably for me, I think the easiest

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Speaker 1: bet to make, which is the wingle Patriots plus four

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Speaker 1: and a half at minus one oh eight. Again, you

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Speaker 1: can find all these lines over Betting Pros. Make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast, make sure you go check

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Speaker 1: out BP and make sure you download the app too,

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Speaker 1: so you can track all your bets. You can make

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Speaker 1: all your bets. You can sync all your sports books

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Speaker 1: for free with the Betting Pros app and find the

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Speaker 1: best numbers for every single one of these bets. But

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Speaker 1: all this stuff to me too. Again, if this game

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Speaker 1: even plays close, and let's say the Patriots fall short

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Speaker 1: and I'm wrong here and they don't come out with

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Speaker 1: a victory, I'm still making money. I'm still winning. Four

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Speaker 1: and a half is a nice cushion. I think this

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Speaker 1: team has a lot of respect for itself. I think

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Speaker 1: Mike Rabel will have a good game plan. I think

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Speaker 1: Josh McDaniels, who has coached in almost double digit Super

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Speaker 1: bowls now, is going to have a good game plan,

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Speaker 1: and I think that they're gonna throw a lot of

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Speaker 1: different coverages at Sam Donald, a lot of different blitz packages.

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Speaker 1: I think that offensive line is kind of mid tier

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Speaker 1: for the Seattle Seahawks. That's just my opinion of it.

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Speaker 1: And I think Sam Darnald is prone to some turnovers

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Speaker 1: and prone to pressure. So for me, that's another reason

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Speaker 1: why I think New Engle can keep this close. And

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Speaker 1: I do think there will be a turnover on that

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Speaker 1: Seattle side. More on that to come. Andrew, what's your

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Speaker 1: number two bet here for the Super Bowl?

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Speaker 2: I agree with you that if I'm picking against the spread,

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Speaker 2: I definitely want the Patriots as the underdogs here with

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Speaker 2: the point, especially when it's at four and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think that that line is just a little bit

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Speaker 2: too high. You look at the look Ahead Lions before

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Speaker 2: the conference championship games played out in this theoretical Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl matchup, it was Seattle laying my three and a half.

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Speaker 2: And I don't really think that we should be taking

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Speaker 2: so much from Okay, that Denver Blizzard game where it

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Speaker 2: was really hard to get an understanding. Okay, yeah, the

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Speaker 2: offensive looked great, Well, nobody can really move the ball

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Speaker 2: effectively and then you look at the Seahawks to your point, again,

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Speaker 2: they've played very well against the Los Angeles Rams, so

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Speaker 2: not trying to over evaluate.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, this.

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Speaker 2: Is what they've done against the Rams. Well, they played

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Speaker 2: the Rams a lot different how they play other teams.

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Speaker 2: And Mike McDonald's specifically eight and oh in rematches in

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Speaker 2: the same season, so that is where he's been lights

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Speaker 2: out facing the second the team for the second time,

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Speaker 2: in this case the third time. So that's something to

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Speaker 2: kind of keep in mind. Maybe not overinflating the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: for beating again a very good Rams team, but one

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Speaker 2: team that they match up very well against. And I

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Speaker 2: don't think that that really is the case as much

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Speaker 2: with the New England Patriots. I think that especially on

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Speaker 2: the defensive side, the Patriots can go match up well

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Speaker 2: with the Seahawks offense. They can stop the run and

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Speaker 2: they can limit Kenneth Walker. You can't run on a

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Speaker 2: healthy Patriots run defense. You can't do it with Spallane

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Speaker 2: and Tunga and Milton Williams and Christian barrymore. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: shut down the run and that that then creates a

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Speaker 2: strict drop back passing game with less play action with

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Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, and if Christian Gonzalez can only slow down

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Speaker 2: JSN in some capacity, especially in third and fourth downs,

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Speaker 2: then yeah, I think there's an advantage to the Patriots

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Speaker 2: defense here. So and Drake May is always a X

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Speaker 2: factor way he can make plays with his legs, So

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Speaker 2: that's the one thing that I'm kind of looking forward

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Speaker 2: to because that was never a case with Tom Brady.

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Speaker 2: And again, how did you be Tom Brady? You got

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Speaker 2: pressure up the middle, and that can still happen with

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Speaker 2: Drake May. But the thing is he has the mobility

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Speaker 2: and the offscript playmaking ability to get the ball downfield.

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Speaker 2: And we just saw the Seas defense, specifically their secondary

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Speaker 2: kind of get ripped a little bit by Matthew Stafford

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Speaker 2: in the NFC Championship game. So those are some of

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Speaker 2: the reasons why I like the Patriots. And with the points,

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Speaker 2: I think just straight up on the money line because

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a close game, and

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Speaker 2: if it's a close game, I can get a plus

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Speaker 2: two hundred or nearly two to one US. So the

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Speaker 2: pitch just to win outright, and I think this game

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Speaker 2: is closer to a coin flip than the lines would suggest,

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Speaker 2: So I like the value there. If you like Seattle,

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Speaker 2: I would tease it. I would go up to teasing

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Speaker 2: it to Seattle minus six and a half, Seattle minus seven. Again,

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Speaker 2: if everyone thinks that they're going to just smoke them,

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Speaker 2: then yeah, then bettt don't take it seawkx minus four

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Speaker 2: and half because if they do dominate and it really

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Speaker 2: was the cupcake schedule that the reason why the Patriots

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Speaker 2: are here, then you should feel comfortable laying that many

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Speaker 2: points if you consider it Seattle the much more dominant team.

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Speaker 2: So that's just my basic read on the game. I

247
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Speaker 2: think that there are scenarios where you can get really

248
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Speaker 2: high payouts, whether you like the Seahawks or whether you

249
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Speaker 2: like the Patriots, because that's the way that I see

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Speaker 2: this game playing out most likely.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, I also think you know that's Spalaane injury.

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Speaker 1: Him being on the field is huge from a leadership standpoint.

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Speaker 1: He's one of those motor guys and one of those

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Speaker 1: heart and soul kind of guys there. And the other

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Speaker 1: thing too, is you know you mentioned about the secondary too.

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Speaker 1: I think you also got to talk about some of

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Speaker 1: the discipline between the two teams as well, because you

258
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Speaker 1: know in that game there against the Rams, you know

259
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Speaker 1: when Treek Woollen has that penalty, and I'm not just

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Speaker 1: singling out one guy, but you know, the lack of

261
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Speaker 1: discipline in these kind of big games really shows up.

262
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Speaker 1: And I think that's where Vetter in coaching coaches that

263
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Speaker 1: have played in Super Bowls, coaches super Bowls before, really

264
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Speaker 1: make a big difference here because I think sometimes emotions

265
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Speaker 1: run really high, and you saw it in the NFC

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Speaker 1: Championship game. And being able to limit those mistakes and

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Speaker 1: penalties and just bad decision making process to playing with

268
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Speaker 1: a certain kind of focus and getting your team on

269
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Speaker 1: the right page, I think really matters quite a bit. Again,

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Speaker 1: it's just it's my opinion, but it's also based in

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Speaker 1: a lot of fact here all right, Next up here,

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Speaker 1: my third favorite bet is doing a Patriots total points

273
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Speaker 1: over twenty and a half at minus one h two.

274
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Speaker 1: I do think we get a defensive score here by

275
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Speaker 1: the Patriots. I see a turnover, I see a pick

276
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Speaker 1: six in the future, and if you hit that, it's

277
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Speaker 1: plus eight to fifty for the Patriots defensive score a touchdown.

278
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Speaker 1: I like that a lot. So that is to me

279
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Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets here in the Super Bowl,

280
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Speaker 1: and I think that seven is the one that gets

281
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Speaker 1: them over this twenty and a half. I do think

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Speaker 1: that the Seattle Seahawks defense is going to hit Drake May.

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Speaker 1: I do think they're gonna give him problems. I think

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Speaker 1: they will eke out some more points. It will have

285
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Speaker 1: some big plays, as Andrew mentioned before. But I do

286
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Speaker 1: think think inevitably it is the defensive score that is

287
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Speaker 1: the difference in this game, and the defensive score is

288
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Speaker 1: the one that carries them over that twenty and a

289
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Speaker 1: half Marker, Andrew, what's your third bet here for Super

290
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Speaker 1: Bowl sixty?

291
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Speaker 2: So my third best bet is a parlay same game

292
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Speaker 2: parlay where I'm moving these numbers a little bit into

293
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Speaker 2: my favor. So I like the Patriots. I want to

294
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Speaker 2: give them more points plus six and a half. The

295
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Speaker 2: Patriots this season, Joe, have not lost the game by

296
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Speaker 2: more than seven points. They have not lost a game

297
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Speaker 2: by more than one score all season. Both these teams

298
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Speaker 2: have played in extremely close games when they've been on

299
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Speaker 2: the losing side. Every game that they have played has

300
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Speaker 2: been within one score, and ironically, their biggest losses of

301
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Speaker 2: the season both happened in Week one so we're as

302
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Speaker 2: far removed as possible from these teams getting quote unquote

303
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Speaker 2: like blowing out and dominating games. And how funny is

304
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Speaker 2: it that we look back at some of these bad

305
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Speaker 2: performances from these teams. Patriots lost to the Raiders in

306
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Speaker 2: Week one, who hold the number one draft pick, and

307
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Speaker 2: don't forget who almost lost. And because I remember we

308
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Speaker 2: were on the show, we talked about that six leg

309
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Speaker 2: parlay of all the money line bets, and what was

310
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Speaker 2: the one that was the sweatiest. It was the Seahawks

311
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Speaker 2: money line against the Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts.

312
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Speaker 1: And they were a field goal.

313
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Speaker 2: Away from blowing that game.

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Speaker 1: So again in their own building, mind you, Yes, in

315
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Speaker 1: their own building. Let's not forget that. Yes, so this

316
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Speaker 1: impenetrable defense almost lost the game to Philip Rivers. Off

317
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Speaker 1: the couch. Oh my god, it's the legion of Boom.

318
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Speaker 1: Let's calm down already. It's a good def a very

319
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Speaker 1: good defense. This is not the Legion of Boom. This

320
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Speaker 1: is not the two thousand Ravens, it's not the eighty

321
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Speaker 1: five Bears's calm down, it's pump the brakes a little bit.

322
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Speaker 1: Bro I'm afraid I've got all Steven Smith there for

323
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Speaker 1: a second, just a little bit.

324
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Speaker 2: Again, I like the Patriots. They've covered plus three and

325
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Speaker 2: a half, so even moving the line a little bit,

326
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Speaker 2: and ninety percent of their games played this season, So

327
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Speaker 2: again more backing of just keeping this game within a

328
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Speaker 2: touchdown that six and a half covers there, and then

329
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Speaker 2: we look at the total. If I move it up

330
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Speaker 2: to taking the under at fifty two and a half points,

331
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Speaker 2: that is kind of the most profitable number when you

332
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Speaker 2: look at both of these teams. For the Seattle Seahawks,

333
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Speaker 2: seventy one percent of their games have finished under fifty

334
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Speaker 2: two and a half points, and really it's only failed

335
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Speaker 2: when they've been in true shootout game environments. And at

336
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,719
Speaker 2: fifty two and a half. For the Patriots, they've hit

337
00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,680
Speaker 2: under that number in eighty one percent of their games.

338
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Speaker 2: So you put those two together, you get plus odds

339
00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,120
Speaker 2: and you're plus one twenty, which I really like. Again,

340
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Speaker 2: So if you're putting crafting all these crazy same game parlays,

341
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Speaker 2: why don't you take one that's more likely to be

342
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,680
Speaker 2: a layup in my estimation, If you like the Pats,

343
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Speaker 2: just to keep it with a touchdown move the total

344
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Speaker 2: up if you think it's going to be a little

345
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Speaker 2: bit more lower scoring. I like that plus six and

346
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Speaker 2: a half of the pats and game total going under

347
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Speaker 2: fifty two and a half.

348
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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's gimme right there, that's give me stuff. I

349
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Speaker 1: like that, Andrew, very nice. Safe, you know what. It's

350
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Speaker 1: good to have some safe floor of a couple bets

351
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Speaker 1: you want to make in the Super Bowl, and then

352
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Speaker 1: you can have that fun one. They can have that

353
00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:56,920
Speaker 1: crazy one or two other things you want to bet on.

354
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Speaker 1: But having that safe floor of I think three wagers

355
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:01,720
Speaker 1: is really smart. Don't forget. If you're looking for more wagering,

356
00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,080
Speaker 1: help to our discords here bettingpros dot com, slash Chat.

357
00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 1: It's free, it's fun. We've got a million picks in

358
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Speaker 1: there for the Super Bowl. We got all kinds of

359
00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:10,200
Speaker 1: chats going on there, so go check it out today.

360
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Speaker 1: My fourth pick, first half total under twenty three and

361
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Speaker 1: a half. Now, this one's the heaviest juice, So again,

362
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Speaker 1: I think this is safe. It's minus one forty. I

363
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,560
Speaker 1: don't love the juice, but if you're somebody that just

364
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Speaker 1: wants to sit back and enjoy, I think this is

365
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,840
Speaker 1: the one for you. Typically speaking, that first quarter, especially

366
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 1: with the two week layoff, everybody's a little flat. You know,

367
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,840
Speaker 1: they're standing out there forever for the you know, the

368
00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,840
Speaker 1: opening acts and the you know, America the beautiful and

369
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Speaker 1: then you have the national anthem, and then we're still

370
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,600
Speaker 1: standing around there. It's a lot, so teams tend to

371
00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,440
Speaker 1: come out a little bit flat here, especially in that

372
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Speaker 1: first quarter. So I think this is one that's gonna

373
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Speaker 1: move as well. You'll see this number shrink after that

374
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Speaker 1: first quarter is over, and I would get in it

375
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Speaker 1: on it now. It's easy, it's fun. I just want

376
00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 1: to take it again. Typically, the Super Bowl does not

377
00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 1: get off to a riproar and start, and if it doesn't,

378
00:15:57,640 --> 00:15:59,040
Speaker 1: then it's gonna take a little while for things to

379
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 1: open up in the second quarter. And I just don't

380
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,400
Speaker 1: know what these defenses, how much is going to open up.

381
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:04,040
Speaker 1: So I'm playing into the hands of the defense. I'm

382
00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,440
Speaker 1: playing into the hands of history, which is typically speaking,

383
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,440
Speaker 1: everyone standing around forever. Two week layoffs not great for everybody.

384
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:11,440
Speaker 1: So a little bit of flattness there, a little bit

385
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:13,680
Speaker 1: of nerves, a little bit of super Bowl Jitter's got

386
00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 1: to get worked out there in that first quarter, Andrew,

387
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 1: what is your next bet here for the people for.

388
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Speaker 2: Super Bowl sixty, I am handholding with you on the

389
00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 2: first half under twenty three and a half points. I

390
00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,720
Speaker 2: think back to a lot of these Patriots Super Bowls.

391
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:28,840
Speaker 2: A lot of them were duds in the first quarter

392
00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:30,920
Speaker 2: where you look up and say zero zero, and you

393
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,280
Speaker 2: know who called a lot of the offensive plays for

394
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 2: the Patriots in those games. It was Josh McDaniels. So

395
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,680
Speaker 2: I'm not necessarily looking at that as Patriots don't have

396
00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,320
Speaker 2: high scoring first halves because of Bill belichip to Tom

397
00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:44,000
Speaker 2: Brady what Josh McDaniels had a role in that. You

398
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 2: look at the Patriots in the first half of Super

399
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,120
Speaker 2: Bowls that were called by Josh McDaniels as the OC

400
00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:52,280
Speaker 2: and offensive plague caller. They haven't scored more than fourteen

401
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,680
Speaker 2: points for the five games they scored twelve or fewer

402
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 2: points in the first half. Again, going back to why

403
00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:00,560
Speaker 2: we like the total game going under, we have two

404
00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 2: defensive mind to head coaches. To me, I think that

405
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:06,880
Speaker 2: in the beginning script for offenses, both of these teams

406
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,560
Speaker 2: are going to look to run the football, whether they're

407
00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,600
Speaker 2: efficient or not. I think they want to get an

408
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,160
Speaker 2: idea of Okay, what are they looking at us on defense,

409
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,760
Speaker 2: and then they're going to think about taking their strikes

410
00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,959
Speaker 2: either at the end of the second quarter or in

411
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,320
Speaker 2: the second half when they're were like, look for opportunities

412
00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:23,920
Speaker 2: to create explosive plays. Because again back to the point

413
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 2: where we like the total game going under, I think

414
00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 2: that they both believe, both coaches believe that their defenses

415
00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,159
Speaker 2: can win if they keep it close, right, and they

416
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:35,680
Speaker 2: can ultimately win in a one of these closer matchups.

417
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 2: So I like the first half under here as well.

418
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 1: All right, So same page there, all right. Now tomorrow show,

419
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,159
Speaker 1: obviously on Friday, we have the big prop show. So

420
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you one because I know the boys

421
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 1: aren't going to give you defensive stuff. I know those guys.

422
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 1: This is an honor of my boy, Scott Bogman. Okay,

423
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 1: we're going to defense here. Clavon Chase on the record

424
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 1: a sack and plus one seventy eight. I really think

425
00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,400
Speaker 1: he is going to get in there and make something happen.

426
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 1: He has played phenomenal football down the stretch. This one's

427
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 1: big time prospect kind of floundered a little bit back

428
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,320
Speaker 1: in the day. He has found a home in this

429
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,199
Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel New England Patriots offense defense, excuse me? And

430
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 1: he is really in a spot now where he is

431
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 1: wreaking habit. He is making things happen. And I think

432
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 1: Chase On gets home on Sam Darnold once in this game.

433
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 1: And you're almost getting two to one on this answer.

434
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,040
Speaker 1: I love this bet. Now. It's not a game bet,

435
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 1: but it's also not an offensive bet. And I want

436
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 1: everybody to think outside the box. It's not all about

437
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,640
Speaker 1: the offenses. And we're talking about these great defenses, yet

438
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,520
Speaker 1: nobody's betting on defensive stuff. What are we doing here? Now?

439
00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 1: I sound like Dick vital who is a little bit

440
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 1: closer to me in terms of physical appearance. I would

441
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,240
Speaker 1: think me and Dick Vitale could be cousins, could definitely

442
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,359
Speaker 1: be some sort of cousins there. Yeah, baby, let's make

443
00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 1: the defensive picks there, Baby, Dick VI tell used to

444
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 1: do basketball? Do you know who that is? Andrew? Do

445
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 1: I know what basketball is? No Dick VII talent? Do

446
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:51,639
Speaker 1: you know Dick vital is? You don't know?

447
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 2: I'm sure that he's showed me a picture, all right.

448
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 1: Google Dick Vitale and then tell me we can't be cousins. Good.

449
00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 1: I want you to google it. I want the live

450
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 1: reaction of you googling Dick Vitel and you tell me

451
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,119
Speaker 1: if we could be cousins. I'm pretty sure we could be,

452
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 1: all right, but clayvon Jason to get a sack again.

453
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: Almost two to one plus one seventy eight. Y're getting

454
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 1: right now? Good stuff there, Andrew Erickson, did you find

455
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 1: the picture of Dick.

456
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 2: Vital Yeah, yeah, yeah, I can see you guys. Be

457
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 2: you okay, yeah, you Dick Vitel cousin Vinnie. It all

458
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 2: makes sense all of a sudden.

459
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,200
Speaker 1: And I have multiple cousins named Vinnie. So I put

460
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 1: that three surris. If you were set the over under

461
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 1: two and a half, it was the over on cousins

462
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 1: that I have named Vinnie. All right, let's get to

463
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 1: Andrew's last pick, and then we're gonna give you our

464
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,880
Speaker 1: favorite picks of the Super Bowl in a second here,

465
00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 1: along with a little parlay as well. So Andrew will

466
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 1: give us the fifth and final one you got on

467
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 1: your board.

468
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 2: I'm going to betting against my Patriots in this particular situation,

469
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 2: Gonna go with the Seattle Seahawks have over three and

470
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 2: a half sacks. You put it with the crop in there,

471
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 2: so I figure, hey, why don't I lay one in

472
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 2: there as well? Plus one, it's twenty eight. You look

473
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 2: at Drake megainst these top defenses all year long, so

474
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 2: this is even before the playoffs because each other time

475
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,679
Speaker 2: they face the top ten defense was the Cleveland Browns

476
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,520
Speaker 2: and Miles Garrett had a feast in that game. I

477
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:07,399
Speaker 2: remember watching that and be like, man, this dude is

478
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,639
Speaker 2: a one man wrecking machine. Will Campbell was probably one

479
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 2: of his worst games during the regular season. But Drake

480
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:15,120
Speaker 2: May has taken at least five sacks when facing top

481
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 2: ten defenses this season. So I like the over, especially

482
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,639
Speaker 2: at plus money, for Seattle to get at least four sacks.

483
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:22,960
Speaker 2: I think they get at least five just based on

484
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 2: the trends that we've seen with Drake May against some

485
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 2: of these top tier defenses. Again, look it's going to

486
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 2: be he's gonna get pressured, Like we know that's going

487
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 2: to happen. The Patriots offensive line is at a big

488
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 2: disadvantage against this really deep Seahawks defensive line, especially in

489
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,919
Speaker 2: the second half of the game when those guys have

490
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 2: been out there for all of the snaps and Seattle, yeah,

491
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 2: it doesn't really have those like Miles Garrett type player,

492
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 2: but they have a lot of really strong depth that

493
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 2: they have a lot of guys, you know, five or

494
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,200
Speaker 2: six guys deep that can really get after the pass,

495
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 2: get after the passer, especially when they're not playing on

496
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 2: every single down. So that's a disadvantage for the Patriots,

497
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 2: but going to try to take advantage of it in

498
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,919
Speaker 2: the prop market with the Seahawks getting a ton of sacks.

499
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 1: All right, Today's show is brought to you by hard

500
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Speaker 1: It's Big Game Week on hard Rock Bets. Seattle is

504
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 1: four and a half point favorites over the New England Patriots.

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522
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Speaker 1: in there and join me. And now it's your term,

523
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: and it's our turn to give you our favorite bets

524
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 1: for the week, and mine again. New England Patriots plus

525
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: four and a half minus one oh eight. That's where

526
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 1: I'm going with this one. I've made the case there

527
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 1: that the Seattle defense is very good, equally good, that's right.

528
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,119
Speaker 1: I said it. Equally good is that Patriots defense. And

529
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:22,919
Speaker 1: this is gonna keep this game tight. And I do

530
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 1: think there's a score on the defensive side and a

531
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 1: turnover that ends up costing Seattle this football game. Andrew

532
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 1: Wood is your big number one bet for Super Bowl sixty.

533
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 2: Of course, it's the Patriots to win. Patriots on the

534
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 2: money line at nearly two to one odds. I think

535
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 2: that they come away with the upset here, Joan. I

536
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 2: know that I'm definitely in the minority and people are

537
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 2: going to look at and say that this is just

538
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 2: a Homer pick. But no, I think that there's a

539
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 2: strong case for the Patriots to find a path to

540
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 2: win this game.

541
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 1: It's not like I've been.

542
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 2: Picking underdogs every single It's not like I've been picking

543
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 2: the Patriots every single week to win as underdogs. Where

544
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 2: they've been, you know, underdogs so far this season. I

545
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 2: just think that when you look at schematically, there are

546
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 2: a lot of ways where They're defense can pose problems

547
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 2: for Seattle and their offense and Sam Darnold in their

548
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 2: run game, and I think on the offensive side of

549
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 2: the football, off Drake May plays up to what he's

550
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 2: done as an MVP candidate this season, and less likely

551
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: he's played in the playoffs, where again the weather has

552
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 2: played a big role. Drake May is not a good

553
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,679
Speaker 2: bad weather quarterback. I know he plays in New England.

554
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 2: But before that he was playing in UNC so he

555
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: doesn't have the Tom Brady chopps quite yet with the

556
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: scuba suit, playing in cold weather and in bad weather.

557
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 2: So I do think that just the value on the

558
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 2: Patriots to win outright in a game that I think

559
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 2: is going to come down to the fourth quarter, potentially

560
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 2: come down to a field goal at the end. Yeah,

561
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 2: give me the Pats with the money line. I do

562
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 2: think that the Super Bowl experience that they have on

563
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 2: their sideline versus Seattle, I think is that extra edge

564
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 2: too that makes me like this bet Mike Rabel, Milton Williams,

565
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 2: Josh mcguiels, Mac Collins, Christian Ellis, Austin Hooper, Carlton Davis,

566
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 2: like up and down the board, they have a lot

567
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 2: of guys with experience. Now Seahawks have a couple of

568
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 2: guys former Rams, Cooper Cup cam Akers, Ernest Jones, but

569
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 2: coaching staff really doesn't have a lot of Super Bowl experience,

570
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 2: and I think that might matter the most, especially in

571
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 2: the second half when things get really tight and we've

572
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 2: seen games.

573
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 1: Go one or which way.

574
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 2: So if the Patriots can just prevent the blowout, right, like,

575
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 2: that's the big concern. Would not surprise me. If they

576
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 2: get killed, then it's like, well, guess it was a

577
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 2: cupcakes schedule. Here's the two thy twenty six. But if

578
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 2: it's tight and it's close in the second half, I

579
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 2: think the Patriots win.

580
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,479
Speaker 1: And if you're in the state of Florida or New

581
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,880
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600
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee,

601
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: or Virginia. Play terms of conditions apply. Concerned about gambling

602
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 1: in Florida, I call one eight three three play wise.

603
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,159
Speaker 1: In Indiana, if you are someone you know is a

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Speaker 1: gambling problem, wants help, called one eight hundred and nine

605
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Speaker 1: with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan,

606
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Andrew Erickson, you know this

607
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 1: is the last Upset special of the year, and of

608
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,679
Speaker 1: course I'm gonna hold your hand on it. And I

609
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,239
Speaker 1: can feel the YouTube victreol and the comments. Look, if

610
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 1: I thought the Pats were gonna lose, and sometimes I do,

611
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 1: I would tell you the Pats are gonna lose, go

612
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: make some money. I don't think they're going to. I

613
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 1: think Mike Rabel's gonna figure them out, because that's what

614
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 1: Mike Rabel does. Players win games, coaches win championships. Give

615
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 1: me the Pats money line upset plus one ninety two

616
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 1: and are parlay the best bets together here New Engle

617
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 1: Patriots plus four and a half, Andrew Erics and I

618
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: are holding hands on the under forty five and a half.

619
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: You put those two things together. If you lock him in,

620
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: you get plus two forty Andrew, that sounds pretty good

621
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: to me, how about you.

622
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 2: I mean, if I'm exactly handicapping this game correctly, then

623
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 2: it should he be great for me?

624
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 1: All right now, Tomorrow on the Prop Show, I'm sure

625
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: you're gonna get a lot more love for the Seattle

626
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: Seahawks despite the fact that Welsh is a huge forty

627
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 1: nine ers guy. So again, if you want a little

628
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 1: bit more fair, imbalanced or whatever you think we're not being,

629
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 1: I don't really care, but go watch tomorrow's show and

630
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 1: get your Seahawks fixed in there. And Andrew and I

631
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: will have to listen to Welsh go on and on

632
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,719
Speaker 1: about how Seattle's going to drag the Patriots up and

633
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 1: down Santa Clara. I don't think it's gonna happen, but

634
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 1: we shall see it, and again we appreciate everybody tuning

635
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 1: in with us all year round. It's we have a

636
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Speaker 1: great community here at Betting Pros. Everybody who's helped this

637
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: channel grow. I just want to shout out all of

638
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 1: you two. You guys are awesome. Everyone who listens and

639
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 1: comments has fun here on the programs all season long.

640
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: You guys make this possible for us to do and

641
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 1: we can't wait for twenty twenty six to come back

642
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 1: in the fall and do it all again. So on

643
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: behalf of all of us here a Betting Pros, the

644
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 1: development team. If you haven't used the app, I don't

645
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Speaker 1: use it for the Super Bowl. All of our production

647
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Speaker 1: staff here, everybody, the hosts, the analysts, Matt Perrault, Fitzie,

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Speaker 1: Ericson Welsh, myself, Wilcock, Bogman. If I'm forgetting anybody, I apologize,

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Speaker 1: but again, it's been a phenomenal football season then we're

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Speaker 1: just so happy to share it with all of you

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Speaker 1: here on the Betting Pros channel. So subscribe to the channel,

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the feed, and enjoy Super Bowl sixty. That'll

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Speaker 1: do it for us, but the story of the game

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Speaker 1: goes on For Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. The Homers

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Speaker 1: are out enjoy the Super Bowl. Everybody go. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show,

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Speaker 1: The best freeway to support us is by leaving a

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Speaker 1: Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

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