1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: The United States of America is facing a retirement crisis. 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: And no, it's not because the Social Security Trust Fund 3 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 1: will be completely empty in less than nine years. And no, 4 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: it's not because pension funds have been gorging themselves on 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: high risk investments. And no, it's not because people have 6 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: been under investing in their own retirement accounts for decades. 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: And it's not even because people have been choosing terrible 8 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: investments inside of their own retirement accounts. It's because all 9 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: of those things are happening at the exact same time, 10 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: which means most Americans alive today will never be able 11 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: to retire. But the good news is that as long 12 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 1: as you know what it takes to get there, and 13 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: then you actually do what it takes to get there, 14 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: you can And if you follow the very straightforward path 15 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: that I'm going to lay out for you at the 16 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: end of this video, you'll be able to avoid this 17 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: retirement crisis and set yourself up and your family to 18 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: be financially secure. When I graduated college, I was completely 19 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: flat broke. Like most people, I had about two hundred 20 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: dollars in my checking account. My job at the time 21 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: I was getting paid about four dollars per hour, and 22 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: I had about thirty thousand dollars in debt, so negative 23 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,759 Speaker 1: net worth, no money, no income, and I had this 24 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: lofty goal to someday become financially free. I just didn't 25 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: know how I was going to get there, and so 26 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: I thought the best way to do that was to 27 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: get inside the finance industry and learn from the people 28 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,320 Speaker 1: who were actually doing it. So I became a stockbroker. Now, 29 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:24,479 Speaker 1: throughout my time as a broker, I learned a lot. 30 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 1: I made a ton of mistakes and lost a lot 31 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: of money, but I also learned how to make a 32 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: lot more money as well. During my first couple of years, 33 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: I worked primarily with low net worth clients, and then 34 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,679 Speaker 1: during my final couple of years, I worked primarily with 35 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: higher net worth clients and specifically regarding clients who were 36 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: retirement age. There were basically two groups of people. One 37 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: group of retirees was poor and dependent, and the other 38 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: group of retirees was rich and dependable. Now, the main 39 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: difference between these two groups of retirees, through my interactions 40 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: with hundreds, if not thousands of them, and looking at 41 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: their income and their financial habits and their plans and 42 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: their needs and hearing their stories, I noticed really one 43 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: main difference between these two groups. Those who had a 44 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: large nest egg and who are prepared for retirement. They 45 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 1: had consistently for decades planned and acted as if someday 46 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: they would be responsible for taking care of themselves and 47 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: for taking care of others, whereas the group that was 48 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: poor and completely dependent on others or on the system 49 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: had spent their entire lives consuming everything they produced, and 50 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,919 Speaker 1: they just hoped that someday somebody else would be there 51 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: to take care of them. Now, I never wanted to 52 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: be in that group, and I don't think most people 53 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: ever see themselves someday being in that group. But the 54 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: reality is it is difficult to choose to sacrifice what 55 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: you want right now for something that you want most 56 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: later on. And that's actually why we have a retirement 57 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: crisis today, starting with social security, because the very promise 58 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: of social security is that you can live your entire 59 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: life in bliss, full of ignorance, live in the moment, 60 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: never plan for the future, and someday when you're old 61 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: and you have nothing left and you're not producing anything anymore, 62 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: and you have nothing saved because you've consumed everything, and 63 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: then some somebody else will bear the cost of supporting you. 64 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: And unfortunately for everybody who has believed that lie, that's 65 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: about to come to an end, because the Social Security 66 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: Trust Fund will be completely depleted by the year twenty 67 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: thirty three. That's in less than nine years. Now. With 68 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: many economic predictions of doom and gloom and projections into 69 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: the future, it seems like they just keep on getting 70 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: farther away into the future and they never actually arrive. 71 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: But specifically with Social Security, this trend has actually been accelerating. 72 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: That drop dead date of when the Social Security Trust 73 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: Fund will be empty has been getting nearer and nearer. 74 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: In fact, take a look at this report from the 75 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: Social Security Administration themselves that was published back in twenty ten. 76 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 1: At that time, they knew the Social Security Trust Fund 77 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: was going to run out, and they thought that it 78 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: wouldn't run out in till twenty thirty seven. But every 79 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: year that date at which the Trust Fund would be 80 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: empty has been getting closer and closer, because the amount 81 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: of money leaving the fund has been greater than what 82 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 1: has been going into the fund. One of the driving 83 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: factors of this is that the number of workers who 84 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: are contributing to the Social Security trust Fund is declining 85 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: as a percent of the number of people who are 86 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: getting paid out from it. Now, when this trust fund 87 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: hits zero, that doesn't mean that social Security paychecks immediately 88 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: hit zero. What it means is that we have two 89 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 1: options on how to move forward. The first option is 90 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: the default, in which the paychecks to Social Security recipients 91 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 1: would be reduced by twenty five percent. Essentially, the amount 92 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: of money getting paid out in Social Security would have 93 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: to exactly equal the amount of money coming in, which 94 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 1: means that beneficiaries would receive a twenty five percent cut. Obviously, 95 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 1: that would be extremely politically unpopular, and so they may 96 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: have to change some laws or jump through some legal 97 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: loopholes in order to get to option number two, which 98 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 1: is the government would borrow extra money to spend the difference. Now, 99 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: if they do go with option number two, this means 100 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: that the amount of money in circulation will be increasing 101 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 1: as a result of keeping the Social Security paychecks the same. 102 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: And as we know, when you print money in order 103 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: to pay out to individuals, that drives up prices, which 104 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 1: means that no matter which option we're looking at, option 105 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: number one or option number two, social security beneficiaries are 106 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 1: going to receive a pay cut. Either way, they're either 107 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: going to be receiving fewer total dollars or they'll get 108 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: the same number of dollars, but those dollars would just 109 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: have less total purchasing power. But either way, it's a cut. 110 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: Now for younger people today, there's a widespread belief that 111 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: social security is something that we should not even think about, 112 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: not even something that we should remotely imagine we could 113 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 1: depend on. But unfortunately that hasn't translated into people taking 114 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 1: more responsibility and using their four one ks or their 115 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: own retirement accounts to make up the difference. If we 116 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 1: take a look at data buy Empower, which is a 117 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: four to one K provider, we can see the average 118 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: four to one K balances range from seventy four thousand 119 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 1: the age range of twenties up to a high of 120 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 1: five hundred and fifty five thousand in the age range 121 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: of the sixties. Now, for those of you who are 122 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: not aware, averages can be skewed when you have somebody 123 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: with a large amount in the group. For instance, let's 124 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 1: say we have one hundred people in a room and 125 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: ninety nine of them have one dollar, but the last 126 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 1: person has a million dollars. To get the average, you 127 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 1: would take the total number of dollars in that room, 128 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 1: which is one million, ninety nine dollars, and divide that 129 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 1: by one hundred people, and you would see that the 130 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 1: average wealth in that room was ten thousand, ninety nine dollars, 131 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: which is obviously very different than the vast majority of 132 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: people who only have one dollars, just being skewed by 133 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: the one person with a million. And so these average 134 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: numbers of the four one k bounces are going to 135 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 1: be skewed to the top side by some individuals who 136 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: have exponentially more. It means that the media numbers are 137 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: going to be far more accurate because the median just 138 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: lines everybody up and take the middle person and sees 139 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: what they have, which is going to give you a 140 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:06,359 Speaker 1: more accurate representation of what the average person actually has. 141 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: We can see that these numbers are even worse with 142 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: the median balance for people in their twenties at twenty 143 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: nine thousand, topping out at a median balance of two 144 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: hundred and forty seven thousand for people in their fifties. 145 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 1: And we have this data from more for one k 146 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 1: providers than just in Power. If we take a look 147 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: at Vanguard's data, we can see that under twenty five 148 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: has a measly median balance of one nine hundred and 149 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: forty eight dollars in their four to one k and 150 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: even the top balance is a median of only seventy 151 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: one thousand dollars for the age range of fifty five 152 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: to sixty four, for those that are literally about to 153 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: enter into retirement age, they don't even have enough in 154 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: their retirement accounts to last one year in retirement. And 155 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: the data from Fidelity is very similar, with the twenties 156 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: age range having an average balance of ten thousand, five 157 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,239 Speaker 1: hundred and the top age range of sixty to sixty 158 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: nine having one hundred eighty two thousand dollars. That's average. 159 00:07:58,240 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: I couldn't find the median, and we know that the 160 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: me will be a little bit lower. At least now, 161 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: this situation is not unsalvagable for most of these age ranges, 162 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 1: most of the demographics. If they contribute enough, we've got 163 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: enough time to let that compounding interest work to have 164 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: enough in retirement. Unfortunately, that's not what's happening with Americans 165 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: actually pulling money out of their four to one ks. 166 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 1: At Bank of America, who has more than four million 167 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: planned participants, they saw a thirty six percent increase in 168 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: hardship withdrawals during the second quarter of twenty twenty two, 169 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: and in the last five years, these hardship withdrawals have 170 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: actually tripled. At Fidelity and Vanguard reported that theirs have 171 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 1: doubled in the last four years. Essentially, instead of Americans 172 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 1: continuing to load up their future with saved money that 173 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: can grow for them to take care of them when 174 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: they're older, they're taking from it right now, interrupting that 175 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: compounding interest so they can consume it right now. And 176 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: as if that wasn't bad enough, in order to do this, 177 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,359 Speaker 1: you have to pay taxes on that money and penalties 178 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: for taking it out early. This means that if you 179 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: need ten grand to cover an emergency expense today, you 180 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 1: might actually have to take up to sixteen thousand dollars 181 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 1: out of your four to one K just to end 182 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: up with a net ten thousand dollars. And that money 183 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 1: never goes back in. It doesn't keep on growing for you. 184 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: It's done growing for you forever. Now, all that sounds 185 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,199 Speaker 1: pretty bad, but the icing on the ke for four 186 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: to one ks is the way that people are investing 187 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: these accounts more and more recently, over the decade from 188 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: twenty thirteen to twenty twenty three, planned participants at Vanguard 189 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: moved out of equity funds into target date funds. Equity 190 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: funds moved from an allocation of thirty four percent down 191 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: to a recent twenty six percent, whereas the target date 192 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: funds moved from thirty four percent up to sixty three percent. 193 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: Over the years of twenty thirteen through twenty twenty two, 194 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 1: we saw a decrease in investors allocating to equity funds 195 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: from forty four percent inequity funds down to thirty eight 196 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: percent inequity funds. Over that same time period, target date 197 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,680 Speaker 1: funds moved from an allocation of nineteen percent up to 198 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: forty percent. Now you'll probably notice that if you look 199 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: at the totals on the top of that chart, that 200 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: equities totaled seventy one percent in twenty thirteen and we're 201 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: still around seventy two percent in twenty twenty two. They 202 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: really didn't change, and that's because target date funds are 203 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: funds that are specifically designed to change as you age, 204 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,839 Speaker 1: which means when you're still younger, they have more of 205 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: an exposure to stocks, and then as you grow older, 206 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 1: they sell the stocks portion and go more into bonds. 207 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: And so while the current allocation is still about seventy 208 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: two percent equities, which hasn't really changed since twenty thirteen, 209 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: as each of those planned participants continue to get older, 210 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 1: those allocations go more and more into fixed income. And 211 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: if you think that's not a problem, just hang on 212 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: until we get to the next section when we talk 213 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: about why fixed income investments are such a problem going 214 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: into the next few decades. Now, just in case you're 215 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 1: thinking it'd be better if people had retirement accounts where 216 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: they couldn't control the investments, in other words, pension funds, 217 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: well you'd be wrong, because pension funds are actually doing 218 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 1: the exact same thing. And while pension funds are currently overfunded, 219 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: they have been doing the exact same thing with the 220 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 1: investments moving out of equities into fixed income. Now, the 221 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: first reason why over exposure fixed income in retirement accounts 222 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,439 Speaker 1: as a problem is because of leverage. Because as long 223 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: as you can hold a bond until maturity, you are 224 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: very likely to get paid back your principle plus interest. 225 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: But if you have to liquidate ahead of time, chances 226 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: are you'll actually have to sell it at a loss. 227 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 1: That's exactly what happened to pension funds across the pond 228 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: when the guilt market almost collapped in twenty twenty two. 229 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: They were forced to sell their portfolio at far below 230 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: face value, and this was triggered by rising yields. We'll 231 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: come back to that in a moment. For over one 232 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: hundred years, we've seen a long term debt cycle play 233 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 1: out in the United States of America that takes about 234 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: forty years for each phase of the cycle to complete. 235 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,079 Speaker 1: The last complete phase of the cycle lasted from nineteen 236 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: eighty through twenty twenty, which saw a period of time 237 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: in which bond yields continued to drop while inflation also 238 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 1: continued to drop. The phase before that lasted another forty years, 239 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: from about nineteen forty through nineteen eighty, when the opposite happened, 240 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: with inflation and interest rates both moving higher. So we 241 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 1: see this trend where inflation and interest rates will move 242 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: lower and then higher, and then lower and then higher, 243 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 1: and each of these phases lasts at least a couple 244 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: of decades. There's nothing magical about forty years. It could 245 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 1: be more, could be less, but these are long term cycles. 246 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: One of the main drivers of this is the debt 247 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 1: to GDP ratio. We can see in about nineteen forty five, 248 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 1: the US debt to GDP ratio peaked at around one 249 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty percent, and then the United States government 250 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: started to deleverage from there. It was an inflationary deleveraging, 251 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: and for the next couple of decades the debt to 252 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: GDP ratio decreased, which was the same period of time 253 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: in which interest rates and inflation were moving higher. The 254 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 1: debt to GDP ratio bottomed at around thirty percent in 255 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: nineteen eighty and then spent the next forty years moving 256 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,559 Speaker 1: higher until it peaked around one hundred and twenty percent 257 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: again at the same time as the next phase of 258 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: the cycle bottomed in twenty twenty, which means we are 259 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: moving into a new phase of this long term debt 260 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 1: cycle in which inflation and interest rates both move higher 261 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: for a long period of time. As the United States 262 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: government deleverages through inflation, they have too much debt to 263 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: pay the debt off directly, and so they have to 264 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 1: print money to cover their expenses. This means inflation and 265 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: interest rates move higher for everybody else, but at least 266 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: for the government, it makes their funding easier because they're 267 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: printing money to spend. You get a deleveraging through inflation 268 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: for the government with a rising inflation and interest rate cycle. 269 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: For the rest of us, this means that long term 270 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: fixed income investments are going to be terrible for investors 271 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: for a while. Long term fixed rate debt is not 272 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 1: the place you want to be when interest rates and 273 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: inflation are moving up. Number One, the value of your 274 00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: bonds will go down as the interest rates of new 275 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: bonds go higher. Number Two, the interest rate you're getting 276 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: paid will not keep up with the rate of inflation, 277 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: which means you are losing purchasing power. In a rising 278 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 1: interest rate environment, the only debt you want to have 279 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: is short term debt, and in a falling interest rate environment, 280 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 1: the only debt you want to have is long term debt. Now, 281 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: I know the demographics on my channel, and most of 282 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 1: you are not at the age yet where it's too 283 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: late to start saving for retirement, which is good because 284 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: most of you are still in that demographics where you 285 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: have enough time to prepare, but you've also had enough 286 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: experience under your belt where you're in a high income 287 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 1: earning mode now. So here's the plan exactly what you're 288 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: going to do so you can make sure for certain 289 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: that you will have enough someday to not only take 290 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: care of yourself, but to also take care of others. 291 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: The first thing you're going to do is you're going 292 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 1: to figure out what is the amount of money you 293 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 1: need to live on every single year. Consider a couple 294 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: things first, before I come up with the number of 295 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 1: you know, one hundred thousand, consider that number one in 296 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: ten or twenty years, thirty years from now, prices will 297 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: be higher, so you're probably gonna have to overestimate a 298 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: little bit. So if you're thinking one hundred thousand dollars, 299 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: maybe bump that up to one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Also, 300 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: consider that when you stop working, most people actually end 301 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 1: up spending more money in retirement because you have more 302 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: free time, more leisure time. You're going to visit family, 303 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: you're traveling, you're doing things, and also your medical expenses 304 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 1: go up. So for those reasons for this number, your 305 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: annual retirement number, you should probably overestimate a tad bus 306 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: step number two, you're going to divide that number by 307 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: four percent. So if you need one hundred fifty thousand 308 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: dollars a year to retire, you're going to divide that 309 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: by point zero four and you're going to come up 310 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: with three point seventy five million dollars. The reason why 311 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: we're dividing by four percent is because that's a good 312 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: rule of thumb for how much money you can take 313 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: out of your nest egg without it affecting the overall 314 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: balance for the long term. Theoretically, you can draw four 315 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: percent out of it forever without ever depleting your nest egg. Essentially, 316 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: you're taking a little bit less than the annual growth rate. Okay, 317 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: so if you need one hundred fifty thousand dollars every year, 318 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: that that means you need roughly three point seventy five 319 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: million dollars in order to retire. So how do we 320 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: plan on what we need to do to actually get there? 321 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 1: If you're not there yet, you're going to go to 322 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: a compounding interest calculator. You can find these online. This 323 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: one is money chimp dot com, but you can use 324 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: any of them. First, you're going to plug in the 325 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 1: amount of money that you currently have. So we'll start 326 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 1: off with a hypothetical one hundred and fifty thousand, and 327 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: then you're going to have to play around with the numbers. Here, 328 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: we're going to assume an eight percent growth rate and 329 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: say that you have twenty five years left to let 330 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: your money compound. For you, if you put in one 331 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 1: thousand dollars a month into your total investment portfolio, that's 332 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 1: twelve thousand dollars a year. That will net you one 333 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: point nine million dollars in twenty five years. Now that's 334 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: not enough. It's good, but as we've seen, if you 335 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: want to be able to pull one hundred and fifty 336 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: grand a year at the safe four percent, you're gonna 337 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 1: need about three point seven million. So how do we 338 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: get this number to three point seven million? Well, we 339 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: either have to just wait longer, change the number of 340 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: years that we're going to let it grow. We don't 341 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: want to mess with the expected growth rate because then 342 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: we are banking on something to happen that historically is 343 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,399 Speaker 1: less common, and so we have to change the annual addition. 344 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,160 Speaker 1: So what if we do two thousand dollars every month, 345 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: which would be twenty four thousand dollars a year. We're 346 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 1: closer at two point nine million dollars. That's up this 347 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: to thirty six thousand dollars a year, which is three 348 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,960 Speaker 1: grand a month. And finally we got there three point 349 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,359 Speaker 1: eight million dollars. Now, if you're sitting there thinking, well, 350 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 1: that just made me even more depressed, because there's no 351 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: way I can come up with an extra three grand 352 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,679 Speaker 1: every month just to be able to invest for the future. 353 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 1: Oh worry, I've got you there too. In my final 354 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: year as a stockbroker, I was making about two hundred 355 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,439 Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars a year, and I had a plan 356 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,080 Speaker 1: to stick with that job and take my extra money 357 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 1: and invest it in order to be able to become 358 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: completely financially free and retire someday. And I did not 359 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 1: like how long that plan is going to take. To 360 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: be honest, it's because I was miserable and I hated 361 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: that job, and I couldn't see myself sitting in that 362 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: job for another year, let alone another fifteen to twenty years. 363 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: At the time, I had a few skills I had 364 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,959 Speaker 1: learned from being a stockbroker. Number One, I knew how 365 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: to invest. Number two, I knew how the financial system worked. 366 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 1: Number three, I knew how to communicate with people, and 367 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: number four, I knew how to sell. I thought those 368 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: skills packaged up were enough to start a successful business, 369 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: and so I quit my job as a stockbroker and 370 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: I started Harecy Financial. That was June of twenty nineteen. 371 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: I quickly learned that those skills by themselves were not 372 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 1: enough to make any money, and I spent the next 373 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 1: six months making zero dollars. And it took me a 374 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: total of a year and a half before I made 375 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 1: enough money to even cover all of my bills. And 376 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: I was only able to start making money because I 377 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:38,360 Speaker 1: had to pair those original four skills with additional skills. 378 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 1: In my case, it was videography, video editing, graphic design, 379 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: and marketing. Those eight skills, packaged up together were the 380 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: skill stack that I needed in order to start making 381 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 1: way more money than I had ever made in the past. 382 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: Which is your step one. You need a skill stack 383 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: that can make you money outside of your job. Your 384 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: job may have given you some skills that you need. 385 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: What you're likely to find is when you employ those 386 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: to start a side hustle or to quit your job 387 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: and start something else that you can make a lot 388 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: more money. You're going to realize there are some other 389 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 1: skills that you need to learn to stack on top 390 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 1: of that so that you can explode your income pretty 391 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: much universally, some of those skills are going to be marketing, communication, sales, 392 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: and media. And it's almost a certainty that you are 393 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 1: going to have to start a side hustle or a 394 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 1: business that you'll be able to quit your job and 395 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 1: go all in on if you want to make enough 396 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 1: money to be able to invest enough to produce a 397 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 1: large nest egg for yourself in the future. The reason 398 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 1: why we have a retirement crisis today is because most 399 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 1: people ignored the fact that they were making just enough 400 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: to survive and we're not putting enough away for the future, 401 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 1: which means if you want to get a result that 402 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: is different than what most people have gotten, you have 403 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: to do something different than what most people have done. 404 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,199 Speaker 1: So learn your money making skills stack, which is going 405 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,680 Speaker 1: to be some skills from your trade, and you pair 406 00:19:55,720 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: that with sales, marketing, communication, media, hiring content that's going 407 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 1: to scale your income from your side hustle. You can 408 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,439 Speaker 1: either take all that income and invest it, or you 409 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 1: can go all in on your side hustle and make 410 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 1: that your main hustle and scale that income even more. 411 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: And then once you have sufficient income to do the 412 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,239 Speaker 1: three grand a month or five grand a month or 413 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: ten grand a month, whatever it is that you need 414 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 1: to get to where you want to go, then you're 415 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 1: going to invest it, and you need to invest it properly. 416 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: In my opinion, the sixty forty portfolio is dead. Modern 417 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: portfolio theory is not the way to go. That is 418 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 1: data that has been pulled from the last phase of 419 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,719 Speaker 1: the debt cycle, and what worked in the last phase 420 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,360 Speaker 1: is different than what works in the next phase, which 421 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: will be more similar to the phase that lasted from 422 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 1: the forties through the eighties. A much older, more time 423 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 1: tested portfolio approach is about a third in stocks for 424 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 1: that capital appreciation, about a third in real estate for 425 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 1: that cash flow and the tax benefits, and then about 426 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,640 Speaker 1: a third in reserves, which is not just cash, it's 427 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: you know, savings instruments like gold, bitcoin, t bills, money 428 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 1: market funds, some cash so that you have some dry 429 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,639 Speaker 1: powder to buy assets when they're on sale and to 430 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: last through the tough times. Making sure your portfolio is uncorrelated, hedged, 431 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 1: and you're making small asymmetric bets and most of all, 432 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: you are investing a large amount of income consistently for 433 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 1: a long period of time. You're going to be able 434 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: to produce enough to not only take care of yourself, 435 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: but to take care of others who you are responsible for. 436 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,880 Speaker 1: And in my opinion, this is the end goal. This 437 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: is the reason why we do what we do. It 438 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: is to give and to take care of others. The 439 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 1: antidote to greed is not to despise wealth. It is generosit. 440 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: A person who said money cannot buy happiness just hasn't 441 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: given away enough yet. And by the way, if you 442 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,199 Speaker 1: want more of everything that we just discussed and you 443 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: want exact detailed steps, training material and how to do 444 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 1: and how to understand literally everything we've discussed in this video, 445 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 1: I have all that plus a lot more in Heresy 446 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: Financial University. It's a membership program, coaching program where you 447 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: go through and you learn how to do all this stuff. 448 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 1: We've got group coaching calls where you have access to 449 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: ask me questions literally every single month. We've got a 450 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: community where you can discuss strategies and investments with other 451 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 1: members of Heresey Financial University, and many more features and 452 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: benefits coming along soon. If you're not already, remember sign 453 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 1: up with the link in the description below. As always, 454 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: thanks so much for watching, Have a great day.