1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C. 2 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco, Bloomberg 3 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: to the country. See when he is exam General one 4 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: ninety and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Avid 5 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good Morning, seven 6 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,479 Speaker 1: thirty on Wall Street and Michael McKee along with Tom Keane, 7 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: keeping an eye on what's happening in the news around 8 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: the world that the new might be trading on today. 9 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: Speaking of bond market, somebody is buying Volkswagen. Actually, the 10 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: European Central Bank buying corporate bonds and euros for a 11 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: second day, expanding its stimulus program, picking up some debt 12 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 1: from the troubled German carmaker. They also bought some of 13 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 1: tiremaker Continental and the French mobile company Orange Disaccording to 14 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, who cite a person familiar with the matter, 15 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: uh in in investors in Illinois not good news. Moody's 16 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: in Star Service lowering Illinois general obligation bond ratings by 17 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:05,679 Speaker 1: one level to B double A two that's just two 18 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 1: steps above junk. The state has a budget impass. Can't 19 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: get a budget passed, you'd be asked as cutting managers 20 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: at its US wealthy unit and recruiting fewer advisors. They 21 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: said they picked up enough of them uh in the 22 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: past six months or so. Head count reduction mostly to 23 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: hit the middle and senior managers, but some of their 24 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 1: main offices in New Jersey and in New York. Emphasis 25 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: that's Asia's second largest software maker, plunged the most in 26 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: nine months. The chief operating officers said spending by clients 27 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 1: remains volatile. That's sort of the topic, d jour here, 28 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 1: what's happening with companies and their ability to make money 29 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: around the world. Let's chake in with John Tucker now 30 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: and get the list headlines from around the world. Good 31 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: morning to Michael and Tom. President Obama will try to 32 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: do some face to face mending among Democrats today. He 33 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: has a White House meeting with presidential candid at Bernie Sanders. 34 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: Sanders has been depression to drop out of the races. 35 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton has become the presumptive nominee. At least fifteen 36 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 1: or dead, dozens wounded after a suicide car bomb attack 37 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: rip through a commercial area of a majority Shade neighborhood 38 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 1: in Baghdad. Today, the House schedule to begin debate on 39 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:18,519 Speaker 1: the bill that would restructure some of Puerto Rico's seventy 40 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: billion dollar dead and create a financial control board. Some bondholders, unions, 41 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:27,519 Speaker 1: and island officials have lobbied against the bill, and rangers 42 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: in Yellowstone National Park have suspended efforts to recover the 43 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: body of a tourist who strayed from a boardwalk and 44 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 1: fell into a high temperature, acidic spring. Officials say twenty 45 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 1: three year old Colin Nathaniel Scott of Portland fell in 46 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 1: the spring yesterday. There are no remains left to recover. 47 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by a 48 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 1: twenty four hundred journalists in more than one hundred fifty 49 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: news bureaus around the world. I'm John Tucker, Michael Toom, 50 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: Thank you John. Time now for the land Rover Parsippany 51 00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:01,959 Speaker 1: Bloomer and NBC Sports update. Here is Rob bus He, 52 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: Good morning, Mike Carlos, belt round homeward. For the third 53 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: straight game they've all come against the Angels. The Bats 54 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: came alive in a twelve six drupping for the Yankees 55 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 1: as they nailed down the Angels are going for a 56 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: four game sweep today Ivan Nova he gets the call. 57 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: Chris Palmley actually homeward twice as well. For New York. 58 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: The Mets they avoid a sweep of their own. In Pittsburgh. 59 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: They won six five and tended instincts to Wilmer Flores, 60 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: who had a blup single. Noah sinder Guard kept the 61 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 1: Mets around a good quality start. Addison Read earned his 62 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: first win of the year. The Mets road trip continues 63 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: tonight in Milwaukee, art Tolo Cologne facing Jimmy Nelson. Game 64 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: three NBA Finals, all Cleveland. The average margin of victory 65 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: for all three teams or both teams has been twenty 66 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: six points in all three games. One ninety is your final. 67 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 1: Cleveland still trails the series two games and one. Lebron 68 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: James had thirty two points. NHL Penguins try and hoist 69 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: their fourth Stanley Cup and to be the first time 70 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:54,839 Speaker 1: at home they can do so. They host San Jose 71 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: to nights in game number five. That is eight o'clock 72 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 1: with your face off, that's your NBC Boomberg Sports update. 73 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, Rob Well. We'll keep you an eye on 74 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: marks around the world. We've been talking about bond seventy 75 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: seven basis points, your US two year, your German two 76 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 1: year fifty five negative fifty five basis points. This morning, 77 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: this is surveillance. I am I coming key along with 78 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: Tom keenan Bloomberg surveillance. We're keeping eye not just on bonds, 79 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 1: but on equities and the news. There isn't any better. 80 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: SMP futures down six points down, features off by forty 81 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 1: five in Europe. It's a down day with the stock 82 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 1: six down three points right now. Time now for the 83 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and j I T STEM Report, brought to you 84 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: by New Jersey Institute of Technology, investing more than a 85 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: hundred and ten million dollars a year and applied research 86 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: to solve problems and improve life. Learn more. It's Stories 87 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: of Innovation dot n j I T dot edu. Here's 88 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: Bob Michael, good morning. Here's what's making news in science, technology, 89 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: engineering and math. There will be no selling out by Spotify. 90 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 1: That's what the music streaming services chief exact Dive and 91 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: co founder Daniel Eck told reporters at a tech and 92 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 1: music conference in Stockholm today. He vould Spotify won't ever 93 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: sell out to a large US tech company because European entrepreneurs, 94 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: who frequently sell their companies to larger US businesses, are 95 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: holding back the region's technology sector. He says the startups 96 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: could grow to be gigantic if founders just wouldn't sell. 97 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: The legalization of recreational marijuana in states such as Washington 98 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,359 Speaker 1: and Colorado has created a bigger challenge for state and 99 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: local law enforcement. There's no quick way to know if 100 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 1: a driver is stoned. That's partly because the science of 101 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: highs is well sketchy. May study from the Triple A 102 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: Foundation for Traffic Safety concluded there isn't a reliable link 103 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:46,239 Speaker 1: between impairment and the level of tetrahydro cannabinol pot's mind 104 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: altering agent THC in a driver's blood. That usually means 105 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: a multipoint test examining such things as suspects, light sensitivity, balance, 106 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 1: and eyelid tremors. So authorities are looking to a team 107 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: of chemists to build a breathalyzer for we The scientists 108 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: are working on a device it looks something like a 109 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 1: game Boy that the texts the flow with th HC ions, 110 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: and the subtagenarian chemist leading this project is named Herb. 111 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: Of course, Herb Hill, professor at Washington State University. That's 112 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: this morning's Bloomberg and j I T Stem Report. I 113 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: just don't know what to say, Bob, thank you very much. 114 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: All that needed was Jefferson airplaying music in the background. Well, 115 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: you know when PILM makes you larger and makes you small. 116 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: But we're just talking with Rick Deverell from Credit Squecy 117 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: said his big worry in the year going forward is 118 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: China and the impossibility of another big slow down there. 119 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: And the man who keeps an eye on China for 120 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 1: HSBC is the cohead of Asian Economic Research, Frederick Newman. 121 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: He is joining us now. UH is Mr Deverel right 122 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: to be worried. There's no risk reel of a financial 123 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: crisis in China. China's financial system is strong. The problem 124 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: is growth really and the impact on the rest of 125 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:02,359 Speaker 1: the world. And we've seen a bit of a pickup 126 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 1: and demand in the first few months of this year, 127 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,719 Speaker 1: but it may roll over again in the second half 128 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: of this year. The Chinese government itself promised it will 129 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 1: shutter excess capacity to believes to higher unemployment. And China 130 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: was the engine of low economic growth, but it's sputtering 131 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: and I think that's bring in the world economy right now, 132 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: what does rollover mean when you when we're talking about 133 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: it in the context of Chinese growth, So it's probably 134 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: we look at in sequential terms. So we had a 135 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: sharp acceleration going to second quarter, the industrial productions picking up, 136 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: the construction sectors picked up. What it means to live 137 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: a second half, this impulse will fade, that is, we're 138 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: going to see a slow around sequentially, and annual terms 139 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: were still above six percent. Sounds great, but it's really 140 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: the sequential impulse that matters, and so commodity markets might 141 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: come under pressure again. And all the indicators we'd like 142 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: to track, imports, exports, industrial production, all of that will 143 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: again points out when I look at this, and to 144 00:07:55,240 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: our comments earlier Frederick Diamond, the idea of Korea UH 145 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: which we look at is the most vibrant and most 146 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: dynamic of South Korea's the most vibrant and dynamic Asian economy. 147 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 1: The chart of their exports, the new chronic weakness of exports. Culturally, 148 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: how does that consolidated big business of Korea react to 149 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: roll over exports? Do they just go to the government 150 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: say fix this, that's right? So there's a tremendous pressure 151 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: on the government to try to engineer more competitive current 152 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: like yeah, that's been the sort of the game plan 153 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 1: for many, many years. The problem is, you can't really 154 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: do this if you have a current account surviluce of 155 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: eight nine percent when interest rates globally or extraordinarily weak, 156 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: so you can't cut your interest rates further. But it's 157 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: hard to weaken your currency. So currency competitiveness is out. 158 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: And beyond that, you have to do your homework. You 159 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: have to become domestically more competitive. You have to improve. 160 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 1: But but to use the Swiss and analog here, I 161 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: mean the Swiss try to do this. They're building it 162 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: up euro Swissy this morning is challenged stronger. I mean, 163 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: what does Korea learn from the Swiss? Lesson? They're not Switzerland, 164 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: are they? They are in some ways Switzerland. They're safe 165 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: haven currency, perhaps better like Japan, right, it is the 166 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 1: safe haven currency in Asia, and so it is very 167 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: hard to go against the trent. Korea has to look 168 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: at other ways of growing. They have to do more 169 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: off showing, which is happening actually is hurting the domestic 170 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 1: labor market. But off showing is one way, and then 171 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: you have to improve the domestic economy, do all the 172 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 1: stuff that really they have been put off many years, 173 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: which is liberalized the domestic That brings us up, Mike, 174 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: because it's really the price we're paying for all the 175 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:43,839 Speaker 1: other non orthodox things we're doing. Switzerland faces, Korea faces No. Well, 176 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: I'm wondering. We know that the Chinese have a major 177 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: impact on everybody else in their neighborhood, but what about 178 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: the Koreans with their economy and with their central bank 179 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,719 Speaker 1: movement today? Um, do we get the same kind of 180 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,560 Speaker 1: kind of effect? Is it as important to what happens 181 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: or is it more isolated? It's probably a bit more isolated. Um. 182 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: The big elephant in the room in Asia is China. 183 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: China is breathing down everybody's neck in terms of competitiveness, 184 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: and in fact, John is going upscale. That is, it's 185 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: less of a competitive threat to say, Vietnam and Thailand today, 186 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: it's becoming more of a threat to Taiwan and Korea 187 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: and possibly Japan at some point. So what Korea does 188 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: it This station in terms of cutting interest rates is 189 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: not going to really turn the dial. Uh, Taiwan might 190 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: be impacted a little bit, perhaps Japan at the margin, 191 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: but it's more an isolated story in that sense. I 192 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: think what is important about Korea's rate cup this morning 193 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 1: is what it says about the state of the global economy. 194 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 1: And look at Asia's exports. We've been seen a contraction 195 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 1: export volumes for seven months. We're gonna come back with 196 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: Fredick Norman talking about this with HSBC Hong Kong joining 197 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 1: us in our New York studios right now. What you 198 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 1: need to know the tenure yield one point six eight percent, 199 00:10:55,520 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 1: German tenure point zero four percent. Stay with us. Bloomberg 200 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: s Avalance is brought to by ancient block and engine, 201 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 1: named the best accounty firm in North America for the 202 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 1: sixth year in a row by Hedge week dot Com 203 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 1: Global Business News twenty four hours a day, if Bloomberg 204 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 1: dot Com, the Radio plus mobile app and on your radio. 205 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. 206 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by van Eck Vector's e 207 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: t f S. Expect more from your muni's target tax 208 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,719 Speaker 1: exempt income by maturity and credit quality oh at low 209 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: cost ETFs. Visit van eck dot com slash Muni, van 210 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: Eck Access the opportunities. US dot Indix futures are lower, 211 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 1: indicating declines for the SNP five hundred after a three 212 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: day advance took the benchmark close to an all time high. 213 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading 214 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: day on Bloomberg SNP EMNY futures down seven and a 215 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 1: half points so down, EMNY futures down fifty five, nasdack 216 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: Many futures down thirteen and the decks in Germany's down 217 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,439 Speaker 1: one point three percent. Ten Your treasury of e thirty 218 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: seconds at one point six seven percent. No, i'm x 219 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: screw oil down one percent or fifty one cents to 220 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: fifty seventy three cents of barrel co make school It'll change, 221 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: down sixty cents to twelve sixty one seventy the euro 222 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: dollar thirteen thirty nine A and one oh six point 223 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: five to Restoration Hardware Holdings down nineteen percent this morning 224 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: after the upscale furniture chain posted a surprise loss and 225 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 1: cut its annual earnings forecast. And just a Big Energy 226 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 1: down two point eight percent after the natural gas producer 227 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,719 Speaker 1: traded new shares for notes for the third time in 228 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: less than a month as it seeks to lighten its deadload. 229 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,839 Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen thinks 230 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: so much. That coffee table you got from Restoration Hardware, 231 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: it was like the size of Rhode Island. I guess 232 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 1: that just didn't work out for them. Well, it does 233 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: enable us to have the entire surveillance staff in one place, 234 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: at one place at one time. Yes, we can't put 235 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,199 Speaker 1: them all on the same room. There's there's certain legal restrictions. 236 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 1: Peter book Bar of the Lindsay Group with a very 237 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 1: sharp note mikeynotes a toxic mix of low yields with 238 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:13,559 Speaker 1: rising CRB index for Mr Bokar, Well, it's interesting because 239 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: there's uh, who was it? It might have been kitchen 240 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: because this morning is note excuse me for reading so 241 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 1: many notes I can't remember pointed out. But commodities are divergent. 242 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: You've got medals down, oil up kind of day or week, 243 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: and so it's hard to make sense of exactly what's happening. 244 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: Now we're talking with Frederick Nohman his HSB SES cohead 245 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: of Asian Economic Research, and we were talking offline Tom 246 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: a minute ago about some it's actually quite interesting. We 247 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 1: are fixated on Hillary and the Donald here and the 248 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: presidential race in the United States, but they're watching it 249 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: in Asia because both of these candidates have come out 250 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: against the Trans Pacific partnership and trade. Uh how much 251 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 1: does the US election play into what you do and 252 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: what you think about? It's hugely important because Asia lives 253 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: on trade, on exports, right, that's how we build prosperity 254 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:13,199 Speaker 1: in Asia. Now with the domestic side being so restrained 255 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: by the build up in debt, we need experts perform better. 256 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: But there's you know, with with the political winds shifting 257 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: towards protectionism in the US, that will probably the outlook 258 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: for experts doesn't know very good. Koreas and particularly impacted 259 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: by that, Taiwan, all these small, highly trade dependent economies, 260 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: but even China. China needs experts to do better. And 261 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: with these uh known rising protectionism, that's that doesn't really 262 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 1: look good. Then for Asia, Well, we've we've got the 263 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: same kind of political winds blowing in Europe, the protectionists, 264 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: closed the borders, seal things up attitude. What about within 265 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: Asia itself? Uh, you mentioned they live on trade in 266 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: a different world so to speak. Yeah, this is very interesting. 267 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: China is in the mean to negotiating and pun Asian 268 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: free trade agreements. So while the West is pulling back 269 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 1: out of Asia, likely not to sign the TPP, it 270 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: looks like Asia China is actually negotiating its own free 271 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: trade agreement with Asia. And this is the first time 272 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: since the Second World War we see the US pulling 273 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 1: back in terms of leadership of the globe economic system 274 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 1: and China stepping up and building its its rival system, 275 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: so to speak. So it's important for geopolitical purposes, and 276 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: one of the reasons why Obama went to to Asian 277 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: and try to reassure allies that geopolitically we stand with you, 278 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 1: but on the ground trade is going towards China. I 279 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: just had a bad feeling of of anyone taking over 280 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: the Mandarin Hotel in Hong Kong, that iconic building from 281 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: the sixties. It's just I just please, Mr Trump, don't 282 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: take over the Mandarin Hotel in Hong Kong. There's too 283 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: much history there to say the least. When you look 284 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: at the political prism of the United States and Asia, 285 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 1: I think they know whose Secretary Clinton is. How do 286 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 1: they respond to a Mr Trump? He was not quite 287 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: as well known in fact in China, nobody really spoke 288 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 1: about him until about a couple of months ago. But 289 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: what really brought it onto the map was one of 290 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 1: the four Foreign Policy speech of suggesting, for example, the 291 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 1: rearmament of some of the allies in Asia, which obviously 292 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: raised some concern because the United States has kept a 293 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: very security umbrella across the region and has therefore kept 294 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 1: down political tensions, and that's now starting to freight a 295 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: little bit at the edges. I mean, I look at 296 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: this and I look at the state of Hong Kong, 297 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: and I don't want to get you in trouble here 298 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: with your general counsel. What is the relationship of Hong 299 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 1: Kong division? How has it changed in ten years? I 300 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: think of Donald saying, who was governor a decade ago 301 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: or so, what's the new relationship? Um? Well, the overwhelming 302 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: reality is that economically, Hong Kong is becoming part of 303 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 1: the China economy. We were tied at the hip economically, 304 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: and that that's the economic reality on the ground. If 305 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: you look at tourism, thirty eight million tourists from China 306 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 1: coming to Hong Kong every year. Um. You know, Hong 307 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: Kong has seven million people so you can imagine how 308 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 1: important been on that watch for a long time. I 309 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,439 Speaker 1: tell people like that when I say I go to 310 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: Hong Kong, it's the airport, Mercedes, a hotel, thank you, 311 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 1: Mandarin or or the others, and then back to the airport. 312 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 1: That's not going to Hong Kong, your Hong Kong. How 313 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: has it changed, um, it has become probably a bit 314 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: more men, more Mandarin friendly. Over the years. For example, 315 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 1: the use of English language has declined quite a bit. 316 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: It's become much more Chinese. And that way, younger people 317 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 1: tend to speak more Mandarin than they do English. Older 318 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 1: people still speak English presently. If you go in a 319 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 1: cab and even older cab drivers speaks English. If you're younger, 320 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: cab drivers wouldn't speak English, speaks Chinese. So that's that's 321 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 1: the gravitational poll of China, and that's being felt across Asia, 322 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: but particularly in Hong Kong. So it doesn't feel British anymore, 323 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 1: less and less British. But you know, naturally, even twenty 324 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 1: years and almost twenty years after the handover, so it 325 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:05,119 Speaker 1: is becoming gradually more Asian, more Chinese. In terms of 326 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: the field. It's just a random guess, um, how long 327 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: until Hong Kong isn't thought of as a separate place. 328 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 1: I think it'd be a while actually, to be honest, 329 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:19,679 Speaker 1: there there is a there's a bit of a I 330 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 1: wouldn't say separate identity, but there are the people in 331 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: Hong Kong are quite conscious of the uh some of 332 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 1: the institutions have built up under the British if you 333 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,959 Speaker 1: take the court system, if you take the financial system, 334 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,159 Speaker 1: and so I think there is a realization that you 335 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,439 Speaker 1: can have two systems and they will probably co exist 336 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 1: for quite some time. I know it's a heckn they 337 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 1: turn because it's often branded about, but there's really one country, 338 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,440 Speaker 1: two systems. You know, how soon we think of maybe 339 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: the Hong Kong stock market is just an adjunct of Shanghai. Well. 340 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 1: But on the other end, you know, we think last 341 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: year we'd already the or in late two thousand fourteen 342 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: we had to connect come in and people thought that 343 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: two emerging. But the reality is the stocks are still 344 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 1: trading a thirty percent discount in Hong Kong, and and 345 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: there's separate listings, and we see companies delist in Hong 346 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,959 Speaker 1: Kong and realist in China. Just recently for example, So 347 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 1: I think in terms of the investor base it's still 348 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 1: quite separate and probably take a few years before that 349 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,679 Speaker 1: truly emerges. Next week, the MSc I people are supposed 350 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 1: to make a decision about China A shares and their 351 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: inclusion in the Emerging Market Index. Do people in China 352 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 1: cares it a big deal for them? It does? In fact, 353 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,879 Speaker 1: last year one of the one of the reasons for 354 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 1: the rally, especially the last leg of expect everybody trying 355 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,880 Speaker 1: our front run exactly exactly. So now it's coming back, 356 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: It's not quite as frothy it was last year. The 357 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 1: expectations um, but there's certainly it is a bit of 358 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: a buzz right now. There are things going on as well, 359 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,160 Speaker 1: which is a shen Zen Hong Kong stock connect which 360 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,199 Speaker 1: could come about. So we have Shanghai, but Shenzen is 361 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: also a big stock market, so there is further integration. 362 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 1: I think the Chinese are keen to develop the equ market. 363 00:19:58,080 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: I asked you earlier the tip point on the on 364 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: you said one hundreds of round number. What's the tip 365 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:04,879 Speaker 1: point on Chinese weakness? When we see you on is 366 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: a seven point zero zero? Is there a break point 367 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 1: where we get a trite like brutal move. Well, the 368 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 1: controls are stronger than the Chinese have on the currency 369 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: than the Japanese, as they could hold a line. But 370 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: seven is a very important psychological barrier, and and in 371 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 1: currency trading, psychology matters just as much as fundamentals as 372 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,199 Speaker 1: you know, right, So seven, I think is really a 373 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 1: sort of a line, if you will. One final question, 374 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:36,159 Speaker 1: if we could the backdrop of HSBC is the exceptional 375 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: called by your Stephen Major to a one point five 376 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: percent US tenure. We say, good morning, Mr Major, listening 377 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,640 Speaker 1: in London one point six seven percent this morning, how 378 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 1: does your world change in Asia? If you get Steve 379 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: Major's one point five percent, it's it actually anchors emerging 380 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 1: Asia because as long as US rates do not go up, 381 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 1: it actually means that capital will remain region. You don't 382 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: see capital flowing out. But if you know we at 383 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 1: some point ten years back up to three or three 384 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: and a half percent, then things get pretty dicey out there. 385 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: Now we're not there yet, Frecken, Thank you so much, 386 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: greatly appreciative visiting us in the arkey is with the 387 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: Hong Kong Shanghai. I love to say that like the 388 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: Hong Kong Shanghai, something romantic about it. Out of the 389 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 1: mandard on the way to our office, you go across 390 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: the little trolley tracks and there's Hong Kong. They will 391 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: keep your bar stool even if the hotel does go. 392 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 1: They renovated it and remain cheerful. Yes, they ruined Shanghai 393 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 1: today close no trade. Uh same in Hong Kong, Okay 394 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 1: one point holiday. They take the country and shut down, 395 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: leaves the country. Future is negative seven down. Future is 396 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: negative fifty two. The yield one point six seven percent. 397 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: Michael McKee mentioning the two year to four digits point 398 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:09,959 Speaker 1: seven six seven zero, the two tens spread showing curve 399 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: flattening ninety point four basis points um. Really a flatter 400 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: yield curve getting into some remarkable space. They're not recession space, 401 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: but nevertheless, flatter yield curve. But yeah, one or six 402 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 1: point five zero. Another hour of Bloomberg's surveillance