1 00:00:02,529 --> 00:00:04,210 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. 2 00:00:04,690 --> 00:00:05,370 Speaker 2: Podcasts. 3 00:00:05,690 --> 00:00:06,210 Speaker 1: Radio. 4 00:00:06,650 --> 00:00:07,050 Speaker 3: News. 5 00:00:12,530 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 6 00:00:16,739 --> 00:00:20,220 Speaker 1: at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto 7 00:00:20,300 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 8 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. 9 00:00:28,260 --> 00:00:34,110 Speaker 4: In studio, Rebecca Patterson, authoress... with Lizanne Saunders, and this 10 00:00:34,170 --> 00:00:38,550 Speaker 4: is a triumph and indeed a celebration. Investment wisdom for 11 00:00:38,630 --> 00:00:41,830 Speaker 4: our friends and loved ones. Rebecca, I mean, you have 12 00:00:41,890 --> 00:00:46,610 Speaker 4: the best blurb I've ever seen here. Chuck Schwab, founder, 13 00:00:46,670 --> 00:00:51,150 Speaker 4: co-chairman of the Schwab Corporation, a wonderful collection of thoughts 14 00:00:51,229 --> 00:00:57,370 Speaker 4: on investing, I think will keep Lizanne around. When you 15 00:00:57,410 --> 00:00:59,370 Speaker 4: wrote the chapter up, what did you want to do 16 00:00:59,450 --> 00:01:01,490 Speaker 4: about investment wisdom, Lizanne? 17 00:01:01,900 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 5: Well, to some degree, Tom, I actually took advantage of 18 00:01:06,620 --> 00:01:11,910 Speaker 5: something I had already written when I had just celebrated 19 00:01:12,030 --> 00:01:15,509 Speaker 5: my 40th anniversary in this business. And it was really 20 00:01:15,590 --> 00:01:18,970 Speaker 5: about the wisdom I've learned along the way, including from 21 00:01:19,650 --> 00:01:23,550 Speaker 5: Chuck himself and many other greats, as well as the 22 00:01:23,569 --> 00:01:25,970 Speaker 5: books I have poured over over the years and the 23 00:01:26,020 --> 00:01:30,770 Speaker 5: advice that I gleaned from those. So Um, that's how 24 00:01:30,830 --> 00:01:34,450 Speaker 5: I approached, uh, my chapter. Uh, mine was the final chapter. 25 00:01:34,569 --> 00:01:37,490 Speaker 5: So I've been telling friends and loved ones that they 26 00:01:37,530 --> 00:01:38,830 Speaker 5: should read the book from back to. 27 00:01:38,790 --> 00:01:39,990 Speaker 6: Front, back to front. 28 00:01:40,890 --> 00:01:43,990 Speaker 2: Rebecca, uh, you and Jenny Harrington, how did this whole 29 00:01:44,030 --> 00:01:47,170 Speaker 2: thing come about? Because I mean, we all, you know, 30 00:01:47,230 --> 00:01:50,490 Speaker 2: value your opinion, Lizanne's opinion. I'm looking through the who's 31 00:01:50,650 --> 00:01:53,010 Speaker 2: contributed to this book. It's a who's who here of 32 00:01:53,170 --> 00:01:54,390 Speaker 2: investment discussion. 33 00:01:54,410 --> 00:01:55,750 Speaker 6: How'd you kind of get this all together? 34 00:01:55,970 --> 00:01:58,110 Speaker 7: Well, Jenny reached out to me about a year ago, uh, 35 00:01:59,750 --> 00:02:02,670 Speaker 7: woman that she had known for a long time, very smart, 36 00:02:02,790 --> 00:02:08,370 Speaker 7: very successful, was in the finance world. Her husband sadly died. 37 00:02:08,730 --> 00:02:10,650 Speaker 7: And she came to Jenny and said, I have to 38 00:02:10,690 --> 00:02:12,990 Speaker 7: deal with the finances. I don't know where to start. 39 00:02:13,190 --> 00:02:15,810 Speaker 7: And we quickly realized we know lots of people like 40 00:02:15,850 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 7: that who are educated and smart, but personal finance is 41 00:02:19,419 --> 00:02:23,030 Speaker 7: different than investment banking. You could grow up as a 42 00:02:23,070 --> 00:02:25,190 Speaker 7: banker and still not know how to run your own money. 43 00:02:25,669 --> 00:02:29,910 Speaker 7: So we start, exactly. We started thinking, all right, who 44 00:02:29,970 --> 00:02:33,290 Speaker 7: else could give us a voice? Who else gets asked 45 00:02:33,350 --> 00:02:37,900 Speaker 7: these questions by friends and family? Lizanne, obviously. And we 46 00:02:37,940 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 7: reached out, totaled, we have 25 authors. 47 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:42,180 Speaker 6: We didn't seek to. 48 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 7: Make it a woman book, but it ended up being 49 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 7: 25 female senior women in finance, which we thought was 50 00:02:47,780 --> 00:02:50,950 Speaker 7: pretty darn cool. And we just said, what do you 51 00:02:51,010 --> 00:02:54,210 Speaker 7: say when someone asks? What is your insight? What is 52 00:02:54,250 --> 00:02:56,970 Speaker 7: your wisdom that you share and tie it to your 53 00:02:57,010 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 7: life and your career? And Lizanne's chapter, I love. And 54 00:03:00,860 --> 00:03:03,299 Speaker 7: we put it last because we wanted to have a 55 00:03:03,340 --> 00:03:07,620 Speaker 7: strong finish and because we loved the book recommendations and 56 00:03:07,660 --> 00:03:10,550 Speaker 7: the advice from all her mentors over the years. And 57 00:03:10,889 --> 00:03:13,109 Speaker 7: people always say, what are some books I should read? 58 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,260 Speaker 7: So Lizanne's chapter had a bunch of great ones. And 59 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,460 Speaker 7: then we asked all of our other authors for their 60 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:22,139 Speaker 7: favorite investment book. Mine is actually not an investment book. 61 00:03:22,660 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 7: It's An Uncertain Time by Doris Kearns Goodwin, which looks 62 00:03:25,780 --> 00:03:28,510 Speaker 7: at history. And I always have believed that history helps 63 00:03:28,530 --> 00:03:30,070 Speaker 7: you understand the present and future. 64 00:03:30,470 --> 00:03:33,750 Speaker 6: I'll read anything she writes. That's for sure. Lizanne, what's 65 00:03:33,790 --> 00:03:34,730 Speaker 6: kind of a. 66 00:03:34,810 --> 00:03:37,170 Speaker 2: Theme that you kind of took from this book here? 67 00:03:38,030 --> 00:03:40,310 Speaker 2: You know, one of my themes is just something that 68 00:03:40,330 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: Tom says. the courage to be in the markets. What 69 00:03:44,570 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: are some of the themes that you've taken away? 70 00:03:46,660 --> 00:03:50,619 Speaker 5: I think that investing by its nature is an act 71 00:03:50,660 --> 00:03:52,980 Speaker 5: of optimism. So I think there were a lot of 72 00:03:53,180 --> 00:03:58,330 Speaker 5: optimistic threads through that book too. The confidence is something 73 00:03:58,350 --> 00:04:00,410 Speaker 5: you build over time, but I think you have to 74 00:04:00,490 --> 00:04:01,900 Speaker 5: approach it with optimism. 75 00:04:02,900 --> 00:04:03,900 Speaker 8: We tried to impart that. 76 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,660 Speaker 4: Rebecca Patterson, Lizanne Saunders with us, of course, with all 77 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:10,020 Speaker 4: their duties, their heritage on the street. The jewel of 78 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 4: a book is investment wisdom for our friends and loved ones. 79 00:04:13,700 --> 00:04:16,460 Speaker 4: I'm sorry, it reads like a damn PowerPoint at Bessemer 80 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,910 Speaker 4: Trust years ago. This isn't like a novel, folks. She's 81 00:04:19,950 --> 00:04:23,570 Speaker 4: not looking for a screenplay. In a summer movie, it's 82 00:04:23,630 --> 00:04:27,229 Speaker 4: like readable with charts in big, ugly letters like shut 83 00:04:27,290 --> 00:04:30,850 Speaker 4: up and read this. It's a very hands on book. 84 00:04:31,710 --> 00:04:34,330 Speaker 4: Lizanne mentioned it here. The heart of the matter up 85 00:04:34,350 --> 00:04:36,690 Speaker 4: front in the book. And I see this every day. 86 00:04:36,710 --> 00:04:40,940 Speaker 4: And it's wildly sexist because women will admit it and 87 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 4: men won't. There's that lack of confidence in investing. What's 88 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 4: the first step, Rebecca Patterson, to developing a confidence you 89 00:04:51,460 --> 00:04:52,020 Speaker 4: don't have? 90 00:04:53,180 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 7: Investing is a language, just like any language. And I 91 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 7: think one of the first steps is should be teach 92 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:02,670 Speaker 7: yourself a few vocabulary words. We try to avoid jargon 93 00:05:02,690 --> 00:05:05,870 Speaker 7: in the book at all costs, actually, but there's a 94 00:05:05,910 --> 00:05:07,850 Speaker 7: lot of jargon in our industry and a lot of 95 00:05:07,910 --> 00:05:09,710 Speaker 7: words that maybe they're not even jargon, but you're not 96 00:05:09,770 --> 00:05:13,450 Speaker 7: sure you understand. So start developing a vocabulary, a few 97 00:05:13,490 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 7: words a week. and educate yourself. Read the journal. Read Bloomberg. 98 00:05:20,020 --> 00:05:24,580 Speaker 7: Read whatever you want to pick to get more comfortable 99 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:24,860 Speaker 7: with it. 100 00:05:24,900 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 9: Bloomberg, Bloomberg. 101 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:26,580 Speaker 4: There, Bloomberg. 102 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 7: Read that first, then the journal. 103 00:05:28,770 --> 00:05:30,650 Speaker 4: Well, no, we can read the journal as well. I 104 00:05:30,650 --> 00:05:33,850 Speaker 4: love this poem. Melissa Lee over at the Death Star. Okay, 105 00:05:33,910 --> 00:05:39,730 Speaker 4: here's Melissa Lee at CNBC. Confucius. I had him in class. Confucius, 106 00:05:39,750 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 4: he taught me, true knowledge is when one knows the 107 00:05:42,779 --> 00:05:49,580 Speaker 4: limitations of one's knowledge. Kevin, who's his name? 108 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 6: Gordon. 109 00:05:50,860 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 4: You and Kevin Gordon are out there with people that 110 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:57,660 Speaker 4: acutely know the limitation of their knowledge. So then what? 111 00:05:57,740 --> 00:06:00,220 Speaker 4: What's the then what, if you know your constraint? 112 00:06:01,510 --> 00:06:04,750 Speaker 5: I want to reiterate what Rebecca said, is that there's 113 00:06:04,790 --> 00:06:07,470 Speaker 5: the necessity of understanding jargon, but I think in the 114 00:06:07,529 --> 00:06:10,750 Speaker 5: role that we have, try to cut through that and 115 00:06:10,870 --> 00:06:13,170 Speaker 5: try to, I mean, one of the best pieces of 116 00:06:13,210 --> 00:06:16,570 Speaker 5: advice I got in my entire 40-year career, we probably 117 00:06:16,589 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 5: talked about this, Tom, before, was from the late, great 118 00:06:19,620 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 5: Louis Rukeyser when I was on Wall Street Week. And 119 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 5: the first time I was on as a guest, almost 120 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 5: 30 years ago, he asked me if my parents were 121 00:06:27,980 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 5: in the business. And in fact, I put this in 122 00:06:30,700 --> 00:06:33,250 Speaker 5: the book. And I said, no, they're not finance people. 123 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 5: And he said, OK, when you come out here in 124 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 5: 15 minutes to do the interview with me, get them 125 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,099 Speaker 5: to understand what you're talking about. And so that's always 126 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:44,350 Speaker 5: in my head. That voice is always in my head. 127 00:06:44,589 --> 00:06:46,729 Speaker 5: Every time I get up on stage or get in 128 00:06:46,750 --> 00:06:49,770 Speaker 5: front of a microphone at Bloomberg or sit down to. 129 00:06:49,690 --> 00:06:51,950 Speaker 8: Write, it's fascinating. 130 00:06:52,450 --> 00:06:53,870 Speaker 7: Talk about it, write. 131 00:06:53,670 --> 00:06:57,370 Speaker 5: About it, explain it in a way that everybody can understand. 132 00:06:57,390 --> 00:06:59,810 Speaker 5: And what's interesting is more often than not, if somebody 133 00:06:59,870 --> 00:07:01,790 Speaker 5: is kind enough to come up on the street or 134 00:07:01,830 --> 00:07:04,140 Speaker 5: send me an email, although not in the last day 135 00:07:04,220 --> 00:07:08,420 Speaker 5: because if it's Outlook, it's people who say, I really 136 00:07:08,460 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 5: appreciate that you write and speak in a manner that 137 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 5: everybody can understand. More often than not, they're on the 138 00:07:13,620 --> 00:07:16,470 Speaker 5: more sophisticated end of the spectrum. It's not just the 139 00:07:16,510 --> 00:07:19,150 Speaker 5: mom and pop saying, oh, thank you, I actually understood 140 00:07:19,190 --> 00:07:21,030 Speaker 5: what you said. And I think that's the way to 141 00:07:21,110 --> 00:07:24,690 Speaker 5: approach it, even from our chairs as people who have 142 00:07:24,710 --> 00:07:25,980 Speaker 5: been doing this for quite some time. 143 00:07:26,060 --> 00:07:27,860 Speaker 7: And I'd be remiss if I didn't make sure I 144 00:07:27,900 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 7: got in. Just get started. 145 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 6: One of my. 146 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 7: I don't have many regrets. One of my biggest regrets 147 00:07:34,140 --> 00:07:37,380 Speaker 7: in life is that I didn't appreciate the need to 148 00:07:37,420 --> 00:07:40,860 Speaker 7: start investing, not saving, but investing when I was in 149 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 7: my 20s, even if it was a small amount. And 150 00:07:43,610 --> 00:07:45,150 Speaker 7: we have one chart in the book. We don't have 151 00:07:45,170 --> 00:07:46,610 Speaker 7: a ton of charts, but we have one chart in 152 00:07:46,630 --> 00:07:49,790 Speaker 7: the book that just shows over a lifetime what is 153 00:07:49,830 --> 00:07:53,150 Speaker 7: the difference in accrued income and accrued wealth you get 154 00:07:53,190 --> 00:07:55,510 Speaker 7: if you start at 20 or 30 or you save 155 00:07:55,630 --> 00:07:59,690 Speaker 7: versus invest. We all know about compounding. Compounding, though, as 156 00:07:59,730 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 7: a word, overwhelms people. If you just show a simple 157 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 7: chart and walk through very simple math, you're like, holy mackerel, 158 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:08,100 Speaker 7: I could have been a lot wealthier if I had 159 00:08:08,140 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 7: started 10 years earlier. 160 00:08:09,980 --> 00:08:12,020 Speaker 2: Lizanne, you spend a lot of your time talking to 161 00:08:12,050 --> 00:08:15,310 Speaker 2: Schwab clients everywhere you're on the road. Talk to us 162 00:08:15,330 --> 00:08:17,710 Speaker 2: about what the message is for younger people. I have 163 00:08:18,250 --> 00:08:21,290 Speaker 2: four children in their mid to late 20s and early 30s. 164 00:08:22,010 --> 00:08:24,230 Speaker 6: I think they're fully invested. They're doing a 401k. I 165 00:08:24,250 --> 00:08:26,350 Speaker 6: get that message out. Although my daughter's getting a copy 166 00:08:26,370 --> 00:08:28,450 Speaker 6: of this book this weekend, by the way. Yay, thank you. 167 00:08:28,670 --> 00:08:30,330 Speaker 6: And she's the smartest one of them, by the way. 168 00:08:30,810 --> 00:08:32,150 Speaker 6: What do you say to the young folks these days? 169 00:08:33,950 --> 00:08:35,910 Speaker 8: Investing is owning. 170 00:08:36,510 --> 00:08:37,580 Speaker 5: Gambling is hoping. 171 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 7: Amen. 172 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 5: Investing, you are a participant in wealth creation. As a gambler, 173 00:08:44,380 --> 00:08:49,660 Speaker 5: you are a spectator. And lastly, investing, over the long term, 174 00:08:49,710 --> 00:08:52,590 Speaker 5: the odds are with you. Gambling, the odds are not 175 00:08:52,630 --> 00:08:55,709 Speaker 5: with you. Do not blur the lines between those two things. 176 00:08:55,910 --> 00:08:58,969 Speaker 4: Chapter 17. It's like the Old Testament. 177 00:08:59,130 --> 00:08:59,250 Speaker 10: Yeah. 178 00:08:59,820 --> 00:09:04,469 Speaker 4: Gina Martin-Adams, it's the quote folks out of my microbiology background. 179 00:09:05,010 --> 00:09:07,930 Speaker 4: Louis Pasteur, he did, you know, like pasteurized milk and 180 00:09:07,990 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 4: all that, but did a lot of other stuff as 181 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:15,990 Speaker 4: well in microbiology. Chance favors only the prepared mind. I 182 00:09:16,110 --> 00:09:19,290 Speaker 4: see day after day in my family. My family is 183 00:09:19,380 --> 00:09:24,180 Speaker 4: not like Paul's family. They're irresponsible louts. And what I see, Rebecca, 184 00:09:24,300 --> 00:09:27,959 Speaker 4: is they don't want to be prepared. They want somebody 185 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,370 Speaker 4: else to do it. I don't buy it. If you 186 00:09:30,390 --> 00:09:33,930 Speaker 4: have an advisor relationship, you have to be in the 187 00:09:34,010 --> 00:09:36,490 Speaker 4: game as well. You just can't hand it off to 188 00:09:36,550 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 4: Kevin Gordon, as frightening as that is. 189 00:09:40,550 --> 00:09:43,260 Speaker 7: No, I agree. And I wrote a chapter on how 190 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 7: to pick an advisor because everyone is different. Everyone has 191 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:51,340 Speaker 7: different needs, different personalities, someone in person, someone a phone call. 192 00:09:51,380 --> 00:09:53,210 Speaker 7: Some don't want to talk to a human ever. They 193 00:09:53,250 --> 00:09:55,209 Speaker 7: just want to do it all by text and internet. 194 00:09:56,030 --> 00:09:58,950 Speaker 7: And that's all fine. But there are some things you 195 00:09:58,990 --> 00:10:01,140 Speaker 7: should think about when you're hiring them. How do they 196 00:10:01,179 --> 00:10:04,850 Speaker 7: get paid? What is their track record? Is the team 197 00:10:04,870 --> 00:10:06,970 Speaker 7: you're talking to when they're trying to get you as 198 00:10:07,010 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 7: a client going to be the team that actually takes 199 00:10:08,860 --> 00:10:11,940 Speaker 7: care of you going forward? And if someone leaves, who's 200 00:10:11,980 --> 00:10:14,660 Speaker 7: the backup? I mean, there are some basic questions that 201 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,010 Speaker 7: would apply no matter what kind of investor you are. 202 00:10:17,070 --> 00:10:19,290 Speaker 7: And I think that's pretty important for young people too. 203 00:10:19,390 --> 00:10:21,630 Speaker 7: Sometimes you just say, I'm going to go with this. 204 00:10:21,710 --> 00:10:26,420 Speaker 7: I'm going to go on Kalshi and buy perpetual single stocks. 205 00:10:26,700 --> 00:10:30,100 Speaker 7: And that goes to Lizanne's point. I would argue that's gambling, 206 00:10:30,140 --> 00:10:33,580 Speaker 7: not investing. But it also shows that they haven't done 207 00:10:33,620 --> 00:10:35,829 Speaker 7: their homework in terms of how to pick an advisor. 208 00:10:36,050 --> 00:10:38,510 Speaker 7: There might be great Kalshi advisors at some point in 209 00:10:38,530 --> 00:10:40,510 Speaker 7: the future. I would argue we're not there yet. 210 00:10:41,190 --> 00:10:46,949 Speaker 2: Technology arguably makes it easier entrance to investing. I think 211 00:10:46,970 --> 00:10:50,570 Speaker 2: the barriers to investing, I feel like are lower today 212 00:10:50,610 --> 00:10:51,860 Speaker 2: than they were when I was coming up. 213 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:54,660 Speaker 5: We at Schwab might have had a little something to 214 00:10:54,700 --> 00:10:57,300 Speaker 5: do with commissions going to zero. I seem to recall that. 215 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:02,170 Speaker 5: But unfortunately, what that has also meant is that's ushered 216 00:11:02,410 --> 00:11:04,470 Speaker 5: in a bit of a gambling mentality. 217 00:11:04,830 --> 00:11:07,310 Speaker 8: And the other piece of advice I. 218 00:11:07,390 --> 00:11:10,870 Speaker 5: Impart, and in part because I often get the question, 219 00:11:11,050 --> 00:11:14,709 Speaker 5: not from you guys, blissfully, especially in a tumultuous period 220 00:11:14,750 --> 00:11:16,630 Speaker 5: in the market, okay, Lizanne, what are you telling your 221 00:11:16,650 --> 00:11:19,510 Speaker 5: Schwab clients to do, get in or get out? And 222 00:11:19,530 --> 00:11:23,750 Speaker 5: I actually don't like the question, but I love getting 223 00:11:23,809 --> 00:11:26,090 Speaker 5: it because then I get to say that neither get 224 00:11:26,130 --> 00:11:29,130 Speaker 5: in or get out is an investing strategy. That's just 225 00:11:29,170 --> 00:11:32,550 Speaker 5: gambling on actually two moments in time and investing should 226 00:11:32,590 --> 00:11:36,010 Speaker 5: be a disciplined process over time. And I think that 227 00:11:36,070 --> 00:11:40,210 Speaker 5: message is particularly important given the time horizons have shrunk 228 00:11:40,270 --> 00:11:43,290 Speaker 5: so significantly in part because there's so much less friction, 229 00:11:43,809 --> 00:11:45,990 Speaker 5: the ease of being able to trade at a very 230 00:11:46,030 --> 00:11:48,900 Speaker 5: low cost, all of which are good things, We need 231 00:11:48,950 --> 00:11:54,070 Speaker 5: to educate about the discipline associated with successful investing. 232 00:11:54,130 --> 00:11:57,390 Speaker 4: Love the chapter. Liz Thomas, who I adore from SoFi, 233 00:11:57,450 --> 00:12:01,350 Speaker 4: divide and conquer asset allocation. And Liz, in the heart 234 00:12:01,390 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 4: of this is the cloud of risk aversion in America 235 00:12:06,460 --> 00:12:11,580 Speaker 4: and an industry developing products to meet that risk aversion. 236 00:12:12,020 --> 00:12:14,740 Speaker 4: How do I escape that trap and actually take risk? 237 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,290 Speaker 5: That You're talking about your triple leverage all cash? 238 00:12:18,929 --> 00:12:20,250 Speaker 4: It's been very successful. 239 00:12:20,290 --> 00:12:25,580 Speaker 10: They're putting it in the NVIDIA 401k here at any moment. 240 00:12:25,790 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 5: Well, I'm more worried about some of the vehicles that 241 00:12:29,580 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 5: are for the perceived big risk takers. And some of 242 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 5: these inverse leveraged products that there's a lot of bells 243 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:43,439 Speaker 5: and whistles associated with the marketing of them and a 244 00:12:43,710 --> 00:12:48,270 Speaker 5: lot of younger... traders, I won't even say investors, that 245 00:12:49,570 --> 00:12:52,570 Speaker 5: are getting involved without the necessary knowledge. 246 00:12:53,210 --> 00:12:55,630 Speaker 4: Rebecca Patterson, final word here. How much fun was it 247 00:12:55,670 --> 00:12:56,470 Speaker 4: herding cats? 248 00:12:57,690 --> 00:13:02,089 Speaker 7: So writing a book with 25 senior women is not 249 00:13:02,309 --> 00:13:05,449 Speaker 7: easier than writing it alone. But I would say it 250 00:13:05,670 --> 00:13:10,290 Speaker 7: is definitely 25 times more interesting. and satisfying because one 251 00:13:10,309 --> 00:13:12,500 Speaker 7: of the benefits i didn't count on writing this book 252 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 7: or working on this book with lizanne and jenny and 253 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,959 Speaker 7: all the others is the community we build with each 254 00:13:18,059 --> 00:13:22,300 Speaker 7: other which is pretty darn special it's it's a labor 255 00:13:22,330 --> 00:13:25,030 Speaker 7: of love any author profits we make are going to 256 00:13:25,070 --> 00:13:27,849 Speaker 7: boys and girls club of america and council for economic 257 00:13:27,929 --> 00:13:30,630 Speaker 7: education so we want to educate people and pay it. 258 00:13:30,610 --> 00:13:35,340 Speaker 4: Forward Jenny Harrington, Rebecca Patterson, Investment Wisdom. It's a jewel, folks. 259 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 4: I can't say enough about Investment Wisdom. It's not a 260 00:13:39,059 --> 00:13:43,210 Speaker 4: boring turn of page. I'll get through it. It's got 261 00:13:43,250 --> 00:13:47,650 Speaker 4: some real bold, readable chapters, and they're short chapters. It's 262 00:13:47,690 --> 00:13:49,710 Speaker 4: not like Dickens. It's good for me. It's not like 263 00:13:49,750 --> 00:13:50,850 Speaker 4: Great Expectations. 264 00:13:51,290 --> 00:13:52,170 Speaker 7: Know your audience. 265 00:13:52,370 --> 00:13:53,500 Speaker 1: Thank you. 266 00:13:54,030 --> 00:13:59,439 Speaker 4: Ladies, thank you so much. Stay with us. More from 267 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 268 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:13,010 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 269 00:14:13,090 --> 00:14:15,170 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 270 00:14:15,210 --> 00:14:15,610 Speaker 8: Eastern. 271 00:14:15,710 --> 00:14:19,010 Speaker 1: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 272 00:14:19,030 --> 00:14:21,550 Speaker 1: Business app or watch us live on YouTube. 273 00:14:22,170 --> 00:14:24,270 Speaker 4: I want to give some color to this and we're 274 00:14:24,290 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 4: going to get away from the sensationalism of NVIDIA. When 275 00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:31,060 Speaker 4: you have Dan Ives in the studio, truly with his 276 00:14:31,100 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 4: global travel, decades on the Pacific Rim, we can have 277 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:39,710 Speaker 4: a different conversation. Dan, you fly into Shanghai in Singapore. 278 00:14:40,470 --> 00:14:43,190 Speaker 4: And what a lot of people don't know, it's the 279 00:14:43,390 --> 00:14:47,910 Speaker 4: cargo center of the Pacific world. I mean, this is 280 00:14:48,010 --> 00:14:51,700 Speaker 4: sitting on top of the prisoner of war camps from 281 00:14:51,740 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 4: World War II. It's a ginormous, gorgeous airport. And they 282 00:14:56,340 --> 00:15:02,780 Speaker 4: have SATS and DNATA terminals. They have express integrator hubs. 283 00:15:03,180 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 4: They have Airport Logistic Park of Singapore. It's normal for 284 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 4: NVIDIA chips to go through Singapore. That's like an everyday thing, right? 285 00:15:12,620 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 8: Yeah. I mean, look, I'd say to some extent many 286 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 8: would view like getting a cappuccino. In other words, like 287 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:23,450 Speaker 8: that is something where Singapore is always it's a known loophole. 288 00:15:24,170 --> 00:15:27,820 Speaker 8: I think investors have understood that. Now the point is, 289 00:15:28,110 --> 00:15:33,290 Speaker 8: is that 5% incremental of chips or 8%? So that 290 00:15:33,330 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 8: was not, from an investor perspective, something that was so shocking. 291 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,420 Speaker 8: I think it's also relative to which types of chips. 292 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,260 Speaker 8: I continue to view it as third-rate NVIDIA chips that 293 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 8: make their way essentially to China. Not what I view 294 00:15:47,300 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 8: as the gold standard. 295 00:15:48,060 --> 00:15:53,070 Speaker 4: But into the weekend, triangulate... The political heat in Washington, 296 00:15:53,210 --> 00:15:59,270 Speaker 4: Secretary Lutnick and others. The tech weight of moving subpar chips, whatever, 297 00:15:59,290 --> 00:16:02,450 Speaker 4: to Singapore. And Andy Lin and our team in Hong 298 00:16:02,490 --> 00:16:07,650 Speaker 4: Kong reporting those chips ended up in Shanghai. Which of 299 00:16:07,710 --> 00:16:09,790 Speaker 4: those stories matters to Dan Ives? 300 00:16:09,850 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 8: The one that matters the most is that this is 301 00:16:12,740 --> 00:16:17,050 Speaker 8: going to cause almost everything. a major shutdown from an 302 00:16:17,150 --> 00:16:21,390 Speaker 8: export control, any sort of loopholes that were making their 303 00:16:21,430 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 8: way from NVIDIA chips into China. Because the reality is 304 00:16:25,270 --> 00:16:28,300 Speaker 8: that NVIDIA chips are two to three years ahead of Huawei. 305 00:16:28,620 --> 00:16:33,340 Speaker 8: So if you're Alibaba, JD, Tencent, name it, you want 306 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,060 Speaker 8: these chips because they're that far ahead of where Huawei is. 307 00:16:37,780 --> 00:16:41,620 Speaker 8: On the same... And if you're a U.S. tech company 308 00:16:41,940 --> 00:16:45,310 Speaker 8: wanting NVIDIA chips today, me and Paul put an order, okay, 309 00:16:45,350 --> 00:16:49,710 Speaker 8: Sweeney Enterprises. those chips you probably can't get till middle 310 00:16:49,750 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 8: of 2028. So the big question would be like, why 311 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,260 Speaker 8: can US, why do US companies have to wait so 312 00:16:56,300 --> 00:16:59,980 Speaker 8: long if quote unquote eight, 10% of those chips were 313 00:17:00,020 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 8: going to China? When it goes to everything with the 314 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 8: spy and Jensen, the black eye moment, the biggest issue 315 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:12,390 Speaker 8: is that this loophole The biggest thing that separates China 316 00:17:12,670 --> 00:17:15,510 Speaker 8: from the U.S. First, the reason U.S. for the first 317 00:17:15,530 --> 00:17:17,310 Speaker 8: time in 30 years ahead of China when it comes 318 00:17:17,330 --> 00:17:21,310 Speaker 8: to tech, a big reason for that is Jensen. You 319 00:17:21,330 --> 00:17:23,870 Speaker 8: take Jensen out of the picture. That's why the best 320 00:17:23,890 --> 00:17:26,490 Speaker 8: thing that ever happened in China is Jensen out of 321 00:17:26,510 --> 00:17:30,189 Speaker 8: the picture. And that speaks to this arms race and 322 00:17:30,230 --> 00:17:33,950 Speaker 8: this spider web relative that we're navigating from an AI perspective. 323 00:17:34,619 --> 00:17:37,740 Speaker 2: One could argue there isn't a company out there that 324 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,570 Speaker 2: has a bigger key man at risk than NVIDIA with 325 00:17:40,630 --> 00:17:45,930 Speaker 2: Jensen Wang. What is the stock call today on NVIDIA? 326 00:17:46,210 --> 00:17:48,310 Speaker 8: Look, many that were yelling fire in a crowd at 327 00:17:48,330 --> 00:17:51,370 Speaker 8: the theater yesterday, I disagree. Because to me, it was like, look, 328 00:17:51,450 --> 00:17:55,129 Speaker 8: Jensen's worth a trillion dollars to the story. And we 329 00:17:55,170 --> 00:18:00,540 Speaker 8: thought about that. Call it $ 75 per share. $ 225, 000 is 330 00:18:00,580 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 8: the fair value for NVIDIA. We are buyers of NVIDIA 331 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,340 Speaker 8: at this level. Because, Paul, my view is there's one 332 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,590 Speaker 8: chip in the world fueling the AI revolution. It's NVIDIA. Now, 333 00:18:10,650 --> 00:18:13,770 Speaker 8: are they going to be in just a massive amount 334 00:18:13,830 --> 00:18:17,950 Speaker 8: of inquiries relative to DC Beltway, like as Tom's talking about, 335 00:18:17,970 --> 00:18:21,090 Speaker 8: like all the scrutiny? Yeah. But if you're a tech 336 00:18:21,109 --> 00:18:23,820 Speaker 8: company going down the path, spending $ 3 trillion to $ 4 trillion, 337 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:28,020 Speaker 8: The one chip, it's invidious. You can't change that. That's 338 00:18:28,060 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 8: not changing for a stock trading at 10 times earnings. 339 00:18:31,220 --> 00:18:33,740 Speaker 4: Dan Ives, Yorkville Ives with us here as we've done 340 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:38,780 Speaker 4: our coverage here through the week. Just extraordinary conversations. Translate 341 00:18:38,820 --> 00:18:43,300 Speaker 4: for mere mortals. The fear that's out there, these chips 342 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 4: are powerful and they're going to get to the Chinese. 343 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,020 Speaker 4: And they're going to use them for bad things. Or 344 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,540 Speaker 4: are they going to go to Alibaba servers to do, 345 00:18:52,580 --> 00:18:55,540 Speaker 4: you know, the monthly income statement summary? 346 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:02,590 Speaker 8: The fear goes back to the globe right now is 347 00:19:02,990 --> 00:19:05,850 Speaker 8: two to three percent penetrated for AI. So let's just 348 00:19:05,890 --> 00:19:08,570 Speaker 8: say my saying goes 100 percent. Let's say another 40, 349 00:19:08,570 --> 00:19:09,050 Speaker 8: 50 percent. 350 00:19:09,430 --> 00:19:09,970 Speaker 4: It's U.S. 351 00:19:10,010 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 8: And China at this point. 352 00:19:11,650 --> 00:19:11,860 Speaker 2: Right. 353 00:19:13,310 --> 00:19:18,120 Speaker 8: The fear is that if China gets that technology and 354 00:19:18,170 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 8: that gives them just another leg up, it narrows the gap. 355 00:19:22,740 --> 00:19:25,179 Speaker 8: And when you think about Middle East, you think about Australia, 356 00:19:25,220 --> 00:19:27,880 Speaker 8: you think about just the rest, you think about all 357 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:32,460 Speaker 8: throughout Asia, that right now is US's to lose. If 358 00:19:32,580 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 8: China gets it, that's the fear right now that's going on. 359 00:19:35,980 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 8: That's why DC is such a focus because they know 360 00:19:38,740 --> 00:19:42,630 Speaker 8: you lose the AI race, It's a, you know, that's 361 00:19:42,650 --> 00:19:45,540 Speaker 8: a very bad situation to be in. So one of 362 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,220 Speaker 8: the values. 363 00:19:46,820 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 2: That at least I could see from Jensen Wong, is 364 00:19:49,540 --> 00:19:54,359 Speaker 2: just the fact that he can do deals with everybody. 365 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 6: Is there anybody else in that building that can get 366 00:19:57,180 --> 00:20:00,230 Speaker 6: that done? What does the company do here? 367 00:20:00,450 --> 00:20:04,170 Speaker 8: Colette, CFO, she's someone that I always thought was going 368 00:20:04,190 --> 00:20:07,170 Speaker 8: to be a major CEO of a tech company. That's 369 00:20:07,230 --> 00:20:10,330 Speaker 8: not any surprise that she is the interim But does 370 00:20:10,369 --> 00:20:14,850 Speaker 8: she have the global presence that she's done it before? 371 00:20:14,910 --> 00:20:16,660 Speaker 4: She understands the wheel. Okay, who does? 372 00:20:16,740 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 8: Cut to the chase. 373 00:20:17,420 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 4: Have they called you? 374 00:20:18,380 --> 00:20:21,380 Speaker 8: To me, it comes down to, like, there's three... There's 375 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:22,419 Speaker 8: three people right now. 376 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:23,219 Speaker 4: Please, quickly, who? 377 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,659 Speaker 8: It's Cook is the next. And we've talked about it 378 00:20:26,700 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 8: over the way. It's not just because Trump said Cook 379 00:20:29,020 --> 00:20:31,350 Speaker 8: checks every box. And he's the one, too. 380 00:20:31,460 --> 00:20:32,310 Speaker 4: Okay, who else? The U.S. 381 00:20:32,330 --> 00:20:35,430 Speaker 8: Technology industry relies so much on. I think the cash 382 00:20:35,490 --> 00:20:38,530 Speaker 8: CEO of Palo Alto, I think he's someone that I 383 00:20:38,550 --> 00:20:42,050 Speaker 8: view as very front and center. And Tom Curry and Google. 384 00:20:42,090 --> 00:20:45,370 Speaker 8: I mean, those to me are the three that check 385 00:20:45,390 --> 00:20:45,850 Speaker 8: those boxes. 386 00:20:45,930 --> 00:20:49,110 Speaker 4: I want you, and maybe it's away from your remit, 387 00:20:49,150 --> 00:20:52,490 Speaker 4: the politics. But Dan Ives in the Situation Room at 388 00:20:52,510 --> 00:20:56,500 Speaker 4: the White House, where it's Secretary Besson and assorted others 389 00:20:56,980 --> 00:21:01,959 Speaker 4: piling on the Secretary of Commerce, Mr. Lutnick. State the 390 00:21:02,100 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 4: Lutnick case here to say we want to move chips 391 00:21:06,820 --> 00:21:09,220 Speaker 4: because these are not evil chips. Is that is that 392 00:21:09,260 --> 00:21:09,940 Speaker 4: the argument? 393 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 8: The argument would be and this is Jensen's argument. Regardless, 394 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,770 Speaker 8: like what Nick proved, the mega speed just which is 395 00:21:16,900 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 8: take a step back. The view is that you need 396 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,770 Speaker 8: chips to get into China, Nvidia chip, because if those 397 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,890 Speaker 8: chips are not in China, Huawei gets just that much 398 00:21:26,950 --> 00:21:32,730 Speaker 8: more powerful domestic competition increases. That's ultimately why Nvidia and 399 00:21:32,770 --> 00:21:35,210 Speaker 8: Jensen and what Lisa Su and AMD has talked about 400 00:21:35,250 --> 00:21:37,650 Speaker 8: as well, a foot in the China market. 401 00:21:37,710 --> 00:21:41,290 Speaker 4: Those chips that Andy Lynn and our reporters, they've been 402 00:21:41,369 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 4: killing themselves on this story. Just a total amateur question. 403 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,120 Speaker 4: Are those bad and evil chips? Or are they just 404 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,820 Speaker 4: run-of-the-mill chips? We don't care that they have them. 405 00:21:54,700 --> 00:21:57,420 Speaker 8: I would view it more as the latter. In other words, 406 00:21:57,550 --> 00:22:00,710 Speaker 8: I view it more as their second, third-rate NVIDIA chips, 407 00:22:00,810 --> 00:22:03,350 Speaker 8: not what I view as the gold standard. When you 408 00:22:03,390 --> 00:22:05,909 Speaker 8: think everything I would see with Rubin and Blackwell and 409 00:22:05,990 --> 00:22:09,290 Speaker 8: kind of the core. So that, to me, those are 410 00:22:09,350 --> 00:22:13,590 Speaker 8: far and few between relative to those chips. But as 411 00:22:13,630 --> 00:22:17,290 Speaker 8: the investigation comes out, it's going to come out that Alibaba, 412 00:22:17,430 --> 00:22:21,010 Speaker 8: any of these companies, they wanted those chips. Now, the 413 00:22:21,050 --> 00:22:23,510 Speaker 8: only way to get them is through Jensen and NVIDIA, 414 00:22:24,090 --> 00:22:26,530 Speaker 8: but you have to separate out. It's not just about 415 00:22:26,609 --> 00:22:30,470 Speaker 8: NVIDIA chips. Do you get the... you know, call it 416 00:22:30,490 --> 00:22:33,850 Speaker 8: the bronze or the gold. And that's why the reason 417 00:22:33,890 --> 00:22:36,790 Speaker 8: the stock is not like doomsday. And I believe going 418 00:22:36,830 --> 00:22:40,380 Speaker 8: back to 225, because in that Wall Street institutional investor 419 00:22:40,410 --> 00:22:43,660 Speaker 8: that's spending like time like myself in Asia, they understand 420 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,580 Speaker 8: this is much more of like the silver bronze level 421 00:22:46,660 --> 00:22:48,620 Speaker 8: on video chips than what the gold. 422 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,139 Speaker 4: Standard does that, you know, it's like, can we do 423 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:51,830 Speaker 4: a Sigui? 424 00:22:51,990 --> 00:22:52,210 Speaker 2: Sure. 425 00:22:52,630 --> 00:22:56,290 Speaker 4: Okay. Dan Ives with us with Yorkville Ives here. Thrilled 426 00:22:56,310 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 4: he could come in. Did you get this from Stroud 427 00:22:58,780 --> 00:23:02,210 Speaker 4: or from Fernando? I mean, you're very Aramco. 428 00:23:02,250 --> 00:23:05,090 Speaker 8: Yeah, this is Aston Martin, Singapore. 429 00:23:05,109 --> 00:23:05,159 Speaker 3: F1. 430 00:23:05,390 --> 00:23:06,150 Speaker 8: Yeah. 431 00:23:06,210 --> 00:23:07,390 Speaker 6: There you go. 432 00:23:07,470 --> 00:23:08,869 Speaker 4: I can't keep up. No. 433 00:23:08,910 --> 00:23:09,910 Speaker 2: Thank God for social media. 434 00:23:09,930 --> 00:23:11,610 Speaker 8: Where's the car parked? 435 00:23:11,650 --> 00:23:17,469 Speaker 4: He's got on the Siegelman stable hat, which is amazing. Oh, Jalen, 436 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:21,340 Speaker 4: where's the hat? I didn't know that. Oh, my word. Mrs. Keith, 437 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 4: I can see. I'm going to get home. Why don't 438 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,100 Speaker 4: I have a Siegelman staple hat? 439 00:23:25,260 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 8: Actually, I've always seen the legend keen with a Siegelman. 440 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,980 Speaker 8: I can see you with this hat. With this hat on? Yeah. 441 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:36,659 Speaker 4: Okay. 100%. I can see it. Anthropic, do you know 442 00:23:36,700 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 4: that we've hardly talked about this this week? Because we're 443 00:23:40,260 --> 00:23:45,869 Speaker 4: doing the cacophony. When you hear six times oversubscribed on 444 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,619 Speaker 4: any deal, But in this case, Dario and company, how 445 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 4: do you translate that? 446 00:23:51,020 --> 00:23:53,360 Speaker 8: I mean, and look, we've seen it the whole week 447 00:23:53,380 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 8: with the roadshow, like institutional. The roadshow has gone extremely well. 448 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,780 Speaker 8: I think they've walked investors step by step, both analysts 449 00:24:01,820 --> 00:24:04,220 Speaker 8: and boss side. I think a great job in terms 450 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,180 Speaker 8: of understanding the model, because the reality is, is that 451 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,780 Speaker 8: is this a company that could do five, six, 700 452 00:24:09,780 --> 00:24:15,780 Speaker 8: billion a year? If it is, then it's a two 453 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 8: to three trillion dollar market. So that's why when it 454 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,740 Speaker 8: comes down to is it 1.2, is it 1.3 trillion? 455 00:24:22,140 --> 00:24:26,659 Speaker 8: The view is that when it comes to foundation with 456 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,410 Speaker 8: the AI revolution, they are going to be a key piece. 457 00:24:29,710 --> 00:24:33,670 Speaker 8: The IPO going off successfully will also be very positive 458 00:24:33,690 --> 00:24:37,669 Speaker 8: for broader tech market after the blue tidal wave, the 459 00:24:37,710 --> 00:24:40,010 Speaker 8: crazy solve we saw last week, which was way overdone. 460 00:24:40,430 --> 00:24:43,190 Speaker 8: and the Jensen Black Eye moment. So that combination, you 461 00:24:43,210 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 8: start to now with Anthropic IPO and strong Nvidia earnings, 462 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,379 Speaker 8: that starts to, I think, a step forward for this 463 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 8: tech stocks. 464 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,149 Speaker 2: What does Jensen Wang do now? I can't believe he's 465 00:24:54,170 --> 00:24:55,609 Speaker 2: just going to take his billions and go sit on 466 00:24:55,630 --> 00:24:56,210 Speaker 2: the beach here. 467 00:24:56,790 --> 00:24:57,570 Speaker 6: What does he do, do you think? 468 00:24:57,690 --> 00:25:00,830 Speaker 8: He's going to do one of two things. He's going 469 00:25:00,850 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 8: to work with Musk at SpaceX and help build it 470 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 8: into what ultimately would be the biggest hyperscaler out there. 471 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 8: Or he probably, after three, six months, he starts his 472 00:25:12,660 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 8: own company. And it's one, obviously, a huge PR and 473 00:25:17,020 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 8: a lot of other issues that he's created all of himself. 474 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,100 Speaker 8: But when it comes to technology, this goes back to 475 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:26,920 Speaker 8: the issue with Jensen is that It's been so mind boggling, 476 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,919 Speaker 8: shocking for anyone that's known him and seen him that 477 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,090 Speaker 8: this happened. But then from a technology perspective, he is 478 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:38,650 Speaker 8: irreplaceable and he is, it's an asset for the United 479 00:25:38,750 --> 00:25:43,150 Speaker 8: States relative to China that he continues to innovate. So that's, 480 00:25:43,530 --> 00:25:46,689 Speaker 8: that's where you get into like a very like, you know, 481 00:25:47,010 --> 00:25:50,210 Speaker 8: very like a balancing act relative, but we got to 482 00:25:50,230 --> 00:25:52,750 Speaker 8: see what he's going to do. He's obviously going through 483 00:25:52,770 --> 00:25:54,470 Speaker 8: all the things that he ultimately caused. 484 00:25:55,140 --> 00:25:59,050 Speaker 2: So how good of a day was it for Advanced Micro, 485 00:25:59,150 --> 00:26:03,350 Speaker 2: for the competitors here, to see what happened at NVIDIA? 486 00:26:03,390 --> 00:26:07,530 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, look, if you're in Beijing, Shanghai, and 487 00:26:07,550 --> 00:26:11,510 Speaker 8: this happens, you're doing cartwheels and champagne. So we'll just 488 00:26:11,550 --> 00:26:15,950 Speaker 8: say from a positive, OK? So China clearly benefits. AMD 489 00:26:15,990 --> 00:26:19,260 Speaker 8: and Lisa Su, they are a natural benefit, the way 490 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:23,460 Speaker 8: they're presented. Broadcom, you could argue Alphabet as well, relative 491 00:26:23,540 --> 00:26:24,419 Speaker 8: on the chip side. 492 00:26:24,460 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 3: Right. 493 00:26:25,100 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 8: And that's how investors are going to glean it out. 494 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,699 Speaker 4: Dan, I don't remember the exact instance other than you 495 00:26:30,740 --> 00:26:35,110 Speaker 4: were dressed atrociously. But there was some point around Apple. 496 00:26:35,730 --> 00:26:39,149 Speaker 4: Tim Cook is a failure. They're going to lose China. 497 00:26:40,590 --> 00:26:44,340 Speaker 4: This and the other thing. And right now, folks, 12-month trailing. 498 00:26:44,820 --> 00:26:48,919 Speaker 4: Apple's up 30%. The bid doesn't go down. I mean, 499 00:26:48,980 --> 00:26:51,780 Speaker 4: it churns and then it goes up again. I'm popping 500 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,090 Speaker 4: a Walmart 40 multiple on Apple. You could still be 501 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,210 Speaker 4: long the Apple juggernaut now? 502 00:26:58,470 --> 00:27:04,119 Speaker 8: I think it's a $ 450 stock because I don't believe 503 00:27:04,180 --> 00:27:08,740 Speaker 8: the AI monetization. 20% of the world, they're going to 504 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,470 Speaker 8: access AI through an Apple device. And this is something 505 00:27:12,530 --> 00:27:15,310 Speaker 8: that many will get caught in the PE and say 506 00:27:15,350 --> 00:27:18,210 Speaker 8: it's expensive. Some of the parts, I actually view it 507 00:27:18,310 --> 00:27:21,190 Speaker 8: as cheap, especially when you think about where the service is, business. 508 00:27:21,690 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 8: So that's why as they go toward the consumer monetization 509 00:27:25,619 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 8: of AI and AI-enabled devices with Ternus and the way 510 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,500 Speaker 8: he's viewing this, first of all, it's a safety stock 511 00:27:32,540 --> 00:27:35,740 Speaker 8: in a storm, as well as the innovation cycle is 512 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:36,440 Speaker 8: just starting. 513 00:27:36,460 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 1: Right. 514 00:27:36,660 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 4: My essay of the year, Paul, to get Paul, get 515 00:27:39,030 --> 00:27:40,730 Speaker 4: one more in here. My essay of the year is 516 00:27:40,810 --> 00:27:45,810 Speaker 4: Rob Arnott, Kim Harvey at Duke here. The gross profit matters. Apple, 517 00:27:45,810 --> 00:27:51,109 Speaker 4: 44 cents in the dollar has become 48, 47 cents 518 00:27:51,270 --> 00:27:54,130 Speaker 4: on the dollar. Yeah. At the gross profit. Solid. That's 519 00:27:54,170 --> 00:27:54,810 Speaker 4: how you're crazy. 520 00:27:54,869 --> 00:27:55,169 Speaker 6: Crazy. 521 00:27:55,190 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 4: All right. Real quick. 522 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,500 Speaker 2: Penn state five and four this year. It's been a 523 00:27:58,540 --> 00:27:59,380 Speaker 2: disappointing year. 524 00:27:59,660 --> 00:28:00,780 Speaker 6: Where does the program go from here? 525 00:28:00,859 --> 00:28:04,060 Speaker 8: I mean, the glad that was a great win at Washington, 526 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 8: which is always a tough place to play. I think 527 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,960 Speaker 8: Minnesota this week, that's another. PJ, what he's done with 528 00:28:08,980 --> 00:28:11,220 Speaker 8: the team. I think you get through this. It's another 529 00:28:11,300 --> 00:28:15,740 Speaker 8: huge win. Look, Campbell took this over with a depleted roster. 530 00:28:15,850 --> 00:28:18,570 Speaker 8: I view this as a rebuild year. You go into 531 00:28:18,590 --> 00:28:21,590 Speaker 8: sort of 27 strong. And look, I mean, I just 532 00:28:21,630 --> 00:28:24,350 Speaker 8: think he is the guy that's going to take Penn 533 00:28:24,410 --> 00:28:25,530 Speaker 8: State to the next level. 534 00:28:25,750 --> 00:28:31,410 Speaker 4: I mean, Keith Segues from Technology Babble in Singapore. You 535 00:28:31,430 --> 00:28:35,350 Speaker 4: sound like you're on ESPN, rocking Penn State. 536 00:28:35,410 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 8: Four years at Happy Valley. 537 00:28:36,910 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 10: Right now, retail loaded the boat when NVIDIA opened. 538 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:44,720 Speaker 8: I mean, that's in the zeitgeist right now. 539 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 4: Which they should. So what's your target on NVIDIA coming. 540 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:53,940 Speaker 8: Off that $ 250? $ 225 with, call it an interim CEO situation. 541 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:58,290 Speaker 8: If they get Cook, Nikash, Curry, like I'm talking like 542 00:28:58,330 --> 00:29:02,890 Speaker 8: a global CEO. Given where we are, this could be 250, 300. 543 00:29:02,890 --> 00:29:05,710 Speaker 8: I mean, Trump put that out there. 544 00:29:05,770 --> 00:29:06,370 Speaker 6: He said, why not? 545 00:29:06,490 --> 00:29:08,850 Speaker 8: But we talked about it a few. We talked about 546 00:29:08,870 --> 00:29:09,490 Speaker 8: this whole week. 547 00:29:09,650 --> 00:29:09,890 Speaker 4: Okay. 548 00:29:09,910 --> 00:29:14,060 Speaker 8: Because, Alexa, to me, it's just like he checks every 549 00:29:14,500 --> 00:29:20,890 Speaker 8: box relative to global footprint, understanding the technology. As well 550 00:29:20,910 --> 00:29:23,410 Speaker 8: as something that has relationships. And this is not just 551 00:29:23,430 --> 00:29:27,320 Speaker 8: about NVIDIA as a CEO. This goes to like White House. 552 00:29:28,020 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 8: This is important for the U.S. technology world. This can't 553 00:29:32,020 --> 00:29:35,010 Speaker 8: be an Intel situation. Damn it, I got to go. 554 00:29:35,070 --> 00:29:39,110 Speaker 4: Mrs. King just emailed in. I want the hat like Jalen. Says, 555 00:29:39,250 --> 00:29:43,140 Speaker 4: I want the hat like. my Jalen. Dan Ives, go away. Hi, 556 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:48,540 Speaker 4: Yorkville Ives. Ives Yorkville as well. Really interesting there. Stay 557 00:29:48,580 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 4: with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 558 00:29:59,730 --> 00:30:03,310 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 559 00:30:03,390 --> 00:30:05,470 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 560 00:30:05,540 --> 00:30:05,910 Speaker 8: Eastern. 561 00:30:06,020 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 1: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 562 00:30:09,340 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 1: Business app or watch us live on YouTube. 563 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,580 Speaker 4: Ian Watt joins us on Chief Economist, Huntington Bank. To me, 564 00:30:16,620 --> 00:30:21,090 Speaker 4: the arch question brought up yesterday amid the NVIDIA blur 565 00:30:21,710 --> 00:30:26,870 Speaker 4: is if or how nominal GDP comes in. Are you 566 00:30:26,970 --> 00:30:32,550 Speaker 4: modeling out a slowdown? In nominal GDP, out 18 months? 567 00:30:33,540 --> 00:30:33,969 Speaker 6: We are. 568 00:30:33,990 --> 00:30:38,540 Speaker 9: We think the tax bill last year really helped boost 569 00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 9: and offset the gas price hike. So consumers were really spending. 570 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,480 Speaker 9: You're still seeing remarkably strong spending growth. I mean, if 571 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,540 Speaker 9: you look at the chart of retail sales, it's really 572 00:30:47,580 --> 00:30:50,830 Speaker 9: been an upward trend in year-over-year growth on retail sales. 573 00:30:51,410 --> 00:30:54,250 Speaker 9: Job growth's really been accelerating or just at a different 574 00:30:54,310 --> 00:30:56,810 Speaker 9: pace since March. I mean, If you look at the 575 00:30:56,850 --> 00:31:00,110 Speaker 9: last seven months or seven months prior, we've had 600,000 576 00:31:00,110 --> 00:31:04,350 Speaker 9: plus jobs added. In the past seven months prior, 100,000. 577 00:31:04,350 --> 00:31:09,630 Speaker 9: So there is this momentum in the economy, but consumers 578 00:31:09,710 --> 00:31:12,410 Speaker 9: are outspending their income. And at some point, that tends 579 00:31:12,450 --> 00:31:15,490 Speaker 9: to come in a little bit, that their spending growth 580 00:31:15,570 --> 00:31:17,410 Speaker 9: is outpacing their income growth right now. 581 00:31:17,850 --> 00:31:21,260 Speaker 2: So, Ian, what is kind of the... Underlying inflation from 582 00:31:21,300 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 2: your perspective here. We've got oil prices up and down, 583 00:31:24,330 --> 00:31:28,190 Speaker 2: up and down. We're down below 90 for WTI crude oil. But, boy, 584 00:31:28,210 --> 00:31:30,750 Speaker 2: that's been an issue. What's the underlying inflation that is 585 00:31:30,790 --> 00:31:32,270 Speaker 2: really a challenge for consumers? 586 00:31:32,850 --> 00:31:35,110 Speaker 9: I actually think I'll pivot that. It's a challenge also 587 00:31:35,150 --> 00:31:37,660 Speaker 9: for companies. And if you look at the PPI versus 588 00:31:37,700 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 9: the CPI right now, it's an unusually large split we 589 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 9: have where the PPI is tracking almost everything. It was 590 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 9: close to 6%. And so you have this split. And oftentimes, 591 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,930 Speaker 9: PPI leads CPI as well. So companies eventually have to 592 00:31:50,970 --> 00:31:53,690 Speaker 9: pass this on. But we do see spaces like food 593 00:31:53,730 --> 00:31:56,770 Speaker 9: products where companies are struggling to pass on margins. Sales 594 00:31:56,810 --> 00:32:01,070 Speaker 9: are pretty flat. While a lot of other spaces, companies 595 00:32:01,110 --> 00:32:02,830 Speaker 9: are clearly able to maintain their margins. 596 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,979 Speaker 4: How is that analysis affected by oil? If we had 597 00:32:05,980 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 4: 117 Brent crude, we come in today... I mean, if 598 00:32:10,700 --> 00:32:13,300 Speaker 4: we get oil here or, dare I say, it breaks 599 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,700 Speaker 4: down even lower, that's got to be a huge benefit. Yeah. 600 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 9: And part of what we've seen, too, is that the 601 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,900 Speaker 9: crack spreads come in, too. So part of it was 602 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 9: when we were at $ 100 barrel oil, gasoline and diesel 603 00:32:26,060 --> 00:32:27,780 Speaker 9: prices were a lot higher than they should have been 604 00:32:27,820 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 9: relative to that oil price because the refining margins. 605 00:32:29,980 --> 00:32:30,380 Speaker 4: Were way up. 606 00:32:30,900 --> 00:32:33,110 Speaker 9: So even if we just see the gasoline and diesel 607 00:32:33,130 --> 00:32:35,870 Speaker 9: prices come back a bit, I'll tell you, Every single 608 00:32:35,890 --> 00:32:39,410 Speaker 9: firm I talk to across the country talks about diesel surcharges. 609 00:32:39,450 --> 00:32:42,250 Speaker 9: It's just a common theme. They said every bill we get, 610 00:32:42,310 --> 00:32:44,790 Speaker 9: there's a diesel surcharge on it. And it's significant enough 611 00:32:44,850 --> 00:32:48,610 Speaker 9: where builders are telling me it's hurting our margins. We're 612 00:32:48,690 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 9: noticing it coming in on our construction costs or missing target, 613 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:53,470 Speaker 9: partly because of those surcharges. 614 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,820 Speaker 6: So one of the things when we look at the 615 00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 6: labor market. 616 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,070 Speaker 2: Full employment, I mean, 4.1% or whatever the number is, 617 00:33:03,130 --> 00:33:06,070 Speaker 2: But wages aren't keeping up with inflation for most people, 618 00:33:06,110 --> 00:33:06,850 Speaker 2: it seems like. 619 00:33:08,110 --> 00:33:09,310 Speaker 6: Again, when does that become an issue? 620 00:33:09,910 --> 00:33:14,690 Speaker 9: Yeah, it's partly it's really a white collar, blue collar 621 00:33:14,710 --> 00:33:17,260 Speaker 9: story right now. If you pull out the jobs report 622 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 9: and you look at what were the top sectors adding 623 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,740 Speaker 9: with income growth on week over week? I mean, sorry, 624 00:33:25,100 --> 00:33:28,100 Speaker 9: average weekly earnings on a year over year basis. Top 625 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:34,340 Speaker 9: sector utilities, construction, manufacturing. Every single thing you can think of, oh, 626 00:33:34,620 --> 00:33:37,290 Speaker 9: oil and gas, too. Those are the top four sectors 627 00:33:37,570 --> 00:33:41,350 Speaker 9: for wage growth right now. So those folks are all 628 00:33:41,370 --> 00:33:44,090 Speaker 9: beating inflation. It's very much a blue-collar story. 629 00:33:44,130 --> 00:33:44,910 Speaker 4: It's a white-collar. 630 00:33:44,950 --> 00:33:47,390 Speaker 9: It's a retailer story where you're seeing people really coming 631 00:33:47,430 --> 00:33:50,130 Speaker 9: in below. So there's a bit of a split in 632 00:33:50,150 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 9: the economy, and we're seeing it when we talk to companies. 633 00:33:52,620 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 4: I love your blue-collar paragraph. But is the white-collar, I mean, 634 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,560 Speaker 4: what's the why here? of white-collar having less wage growth? 635 00:34:01,700 --> 00:34:03,479 Speaker 4: Is it the dreaded AI? 636 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 9: I would say that's part of the story. 637 00:34:06,260 --> 00:34:09,220 Speaker 4: Is it Jensen Wang's fault? I would say it's part 638 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:09,759 Speaker 4: of the story. 639 00:34:09,780 --> 00:34:13,630 Speaker 9: I also run the team that does peer intelligence. We 640 00:34:13,730 --> 00:34:17,509 Speaker 9: started using AskBee a couple months ago, or a couple 641 00:34:17,570 --> 00:34:20,470 Speaker 9: quarters ago, and it does a great job breaking down 642 00:34:20,489 --> 00:34:23,700 Speaker 9: a ton of what our peer earnings are doing. So 643 00:34:23,739 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 9: it certainly has boosted my productivity and my team's productivity. 644 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,620 Speaker 9: But some of it started before then. If you looked 645 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,940 Speaker 9: at in software, there was that trend of, hey, did 646 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,700 Speaker 9: we overstaff? In banks for a while and insurance in 647 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,900 Speaker 9: the fire space, you had when rates went up a bunch, 648 00:34:40,940 --> 00:34:43,120 Speaker 9: a lot of them were sitting on unrealized losses on 649 00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,340 Speaker 9: their portfolios. And they were just more hesitant to expand, 650 00:34:46,380 --> 00:34:49,100 Speaker 9: hesitant to hire during that span. So there's a few 651 00:34:49,140 --> 00:34:50,440 Speaker 9: different factors pushing that. 652 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:51,219 Speaker 4: All right. 653 00:34:51,260 --> 00:34:51,820 Speaker 8: December 9th. 654 00:34:51,820 --> 00:34:54,600 Speaker 2: We're going to hear from the Fed next. I think 655 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,450 Speaker 2: most people are penciling in kind of a rate hike. 656 00:34:57,489 --> 00:34:59,609 Speaker 2: Some folks are even suggesting maybe. 657 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,450 Speaker 6: Basis points. I don't know where that craziness came from, 658 00:35:02,469 --> 00:35:03,569 Speaker 6: but what do you guys think? 659 00:35:03,590 --> 00:35:08,569 Speaker 9: I would say Governor Waller put that out there. He 660 00:35:08,630 --> 00:35:11,590 Speaker 9: certainly was laying down a marker on where he thought 661 00:35:11,660 --> 00:35:15,060 Speaker 9: things should go. If you look at the data, it's 662 00:35:15,100 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 9: kind of remarkable. Look at the work function on Bloomberg 663 00:35:17,660 --> 00:35:20,380 Speaker 9: and you'll see the implied rate probability. We were at 664 00:35:20,540 --> 00:35:22,020 Speaker 9: peak of 1.8 hikes, maybe a 60, 70% chance of 665 00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:27,250 Speaker 9: a December hike and rest of the next year, 1.8 666 00:35:27,250 --> 00:35:32,930 Speaker 9: roughly was where we peak. Today, it's 3.5 peak. Peak 667 00:35:33,030 --> 00:35:36,520 Speaker 9: is 3.5. And we're at 110, 120%, basically meaning they're 668 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 9: pricing at least a possibility of two hikes instead of 669 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 9: one right now. So that move is really remarkable in 670 00:35:43,540 --> 00:35:43,960 Speaker 9: a week. 671 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 4: In Huntington Bank, after this election, where I'm guessing 40 672 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,300 Speaker 4: out of 41 or 41 out of 42 data centers 673 00:35:52,340 --> 00:35:55,669 Speaker 4: were crushed, what do you see in the Huntington Bank 674 00:35:57,500 --> 00:36:01,080 Speaker 4: really on data centers? Is the zeitgeist accurate? 675 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:06,750 Speaker 9: Yes, certainly the political resistance has been significant all across 676 00:36:06,790 --> 00:36:09,529 Speaker 9: the board. And if you look at data centers where 677 00:36:09,570 --> 00:36:11,290 Speaker 9: we saw a lot of the bills pass, my team 678 00:36:11,330 --> 00:36:13,130 Speaker 9: went through it and we said a good number of 679 00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,819 Speaker 9: these bills pass in places that aren't significant data center 680 00:36:15,860 --> 00:36:19,930 Speaker 9: construction centers because it is relatively regional. Texas is obviously 681 00:36:20,130 --> 00:36:22,450 Speaker 9: number one right now in terms of construction in Virginia, 682 00:36:22,489 --> 00:36:24,470 Speaker 9: but a lot of it is the Midwest. It's sort 683 00:36:24,489 --> 00:36:29,640 Speaker 9: of old Huntington footprint, traditional footprint, Ohio, Indiana, places with 684 00:36:29,820 --> 00:36:32,680 Speaker 9: access to the reality is Western PA is some of 685 00:36:32,700 --> 00:36:34,739 Speaker 9: the cheapest natural gas in the country because they just 686 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:39,650 Speaker 9: don't have enough pipeline capacity to offload Appalachian gas. And 687 00:36:39,750 --> 00:36:43,210 Speaker 9: so companies are leaning into that. If, for example, if 688 00:36:43,370 --> 00:36:47,299 Speaker 9: the SoftBank data center ever gets shut down, completed to 689 00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,800 Speaker 9: its maximum capacity. That'll be one of the largest data 690 00:36:49,820 --> 00:36:53,340 Speaker 9: centers in the U.S., and that's in south-central rural Ohio, 691 00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,950 Speaker 9: a county of 27,000 people that want to put a 692 00:36:55,969 --> 00:36:57,229 Speaker 9: 10-gigawatt data center. 693 00:36:57,950 --> 00:37:00,350 Speaker 4: Ian, thank you. Ian Lund, Huntington Bank with us here 694 00:37:00,370 --> 00:37:05,690 Speaker 4: with a brief. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance 695 00:37:05,770 --> 00:37:07,109 Speaker 4: coming up after this. 696 00:37:14,380 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 697 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,120 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. 698 00:37:20,180 --> 00:37:20,580 Speaker 8: Eastern. 699 00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 1: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 700 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,520 Speaker 1: Business app or watch us live on YouTube. 701 00:37:27,980 --> 00:37:31,969 Speaker 4: Important perspective right now. Tony Fukui joins us with Matt 702 00:37:31,989 --> 00:37:36,830 Speaker 4: Blythe here. Synthesize. I'm exhausted, Tony. Remember when it used 703 00:37:36,850 --> 00:37:40,129 Speaker 4: to be like calm? Like where are we having. 704 00:37:39,810 --> 00:37:41,170 Speaker 8: Lunch on Friday? 705 00:37:41,230 --> 00:37:41,690 Speaker 4: Barely. 706 00:37:41,910 --> 00:37:43,850 Speaker 8: Barely. Long time ago. 707 00:37:44,750 --> 00:37:49,590 Speaker 4: How do you study out a year or two years 708 00:37:49,790 --> 00:37:52,940 Speaker 4: or three years given this noise box we're in? 709 00:37:53,790 --> 00:37:56,049 Speaker 3: I think you have to go back to the fundamentals, 710 00:37:56,930 --> 00:38:00,830 Speaker 3: which I think sometimes just means ignoring the volatility of the, 711 00:38:00,989 --> 00:38:05,270 Speaker 3: especially the oil prices, but also the day-to-day noise. The 712 00:38:05,290 --> 00:38:10,700 Speaker 3: things that we're focused on are sort of the slower 713 00:38:10,739 --> 00:38:14,200 Speaker 3: moving things, the slower moving series. For example, the labor market. 714 00:38:14,260 --> 00:38:17,660 Speaker 3: Labor market is a relatively slow moving series. It's been 715 00:38:17,900 --> 00:38:22,660 Speaker 3: really strong and, yes, low hire, low fire, but it's 716 00:38:22,700 --> 00:38:25,680 Speaker 3: really improving. And I know consumers have been so mad 717 00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:31,450 Speaker 3: about inflation with good justification, but they have jobs, and 718 00:38:31,550 --> 00:38:35,589 Speaker 3: that helps continue the spending. And so for the next 719 00:38:35,670 --> 00:38:40,090 Speaker 3: year or so, we're looking at a fairly robust consumer. Obviously, 720 00:38:40,130 --> 00:38:43,590 Speaker 3: the stock market can't crash, but if we have a 721 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,760 Speaker 3: fairly robust consumer, that's a good basis. 722 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,260 Speaker 2: So again, we've had Troy Lutka in here just earlier, 723 00:38:50,670 --> 00:38:53,649 Speaker 2: still looking for, you know, GDP growth, real GDP growth 724 00:38:53,730 --> 00:38:56,330 Speaker 2: next year of two and a half percent. That seems 725 00:38:56,350 --> 00:39:00,299 Speaker 2: like a pretty decent background for. corporate earnings and for 726 00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,180 Speaker 2: risk assets. Is that how you start your look at 27? 727 00:39:03,180 --> 00:39:03,480 Speaker 6: Yeah. 728 00:39:03,500 --> 00:39:03,719 Speaker 4: Yeah. 729 00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:08,080 Speaker 3: So we're, yeah, we're looking at our 27. We're at 2.4. 730 00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,529 Speaker 3: So basically the same as that as a two and 731 00:39:10,550 --> 00:39:15,489 Speaker 3: a half. I think, yeah, essentially the consumer in the beginning, 732 00:39:15,690 --> 00:39:18,230 Speaker 3: at the end of 2025, beginning of 2026 was not 733 00:39:18,270 --> 00:39:21,070 Speaker 3: doing too well. They were kind of pulling back. AI 734 00:39:21,130 --> 00:39:23,850 Speaker 3: stepped in and provided a lot of the economic growth 735 00:39:23,890 --> 00:39:28,819 Speaker 3: for 2026 In the last little bit, in the last 736 00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:34,379 Speaker 3: quarter's GDP, we start to see consumers really pushing ahead now. 737 00:39:34,900 --> 00:39:37,690 Speaker 3: And I think that may continue. We see, you know, 738 00:39:37,730 --> 00:39:40,230 Speaker 3: as I said, we see that likely to continue. And 739 00:39:40,690 --> 00:39:44,210 Speaker 3: if that continues, that's a solid growth pace. 740 00:39:44,790 --> 00:39:47,970 Speaker 2: Inflation, boy, this thing is just not slowing down. Inflation 741 00:39:47,989 --> 00:39:50,900 Speaker 2: is still an issue for so many people in this economy. 742 00:39:52,890 --> 00:39:55,890 Speaker 2: When does it become like a real problem for markets? 743 00:39:56,469 --> 00:39:58,310 Speaker 2: just seems like the market's plowing right through this. 744 00:39:58,690 --> 00:40:00,250 Speaker 8: Yeah, and that's interesting. 745 00:40:00,290 --> 00:40:02,520 Speaker 3: I mean, I think the hope really is, and this is, 746 00:40:02,870 --> 00:40:05,839 Speaker 3: you know, when we look at our year-on-year inflation forecast, 747 00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:07,700 Speaker 3: it's going to go down a lot. 748 00:40:07,860 --> 00:40:08,160 Speaker 4: Okay. 749 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,620 Speaker 3: That's even if, you know, we've got something like $ 90 750 00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:16,680 Speaker 3: a barrel through, we use Brent, through year-end, and that's 751 00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:20,380 Speaker 3: just a lot of, that's a lot of coming down 752 00:40:20,739 --> 00:40:23,509 Speaker 3: just by base effects, right? 753 00:40:23,530 --> 00:40:26,930 Speaker 4: Yep. My greatest sympathy that you have to publish Monday. 754 00:40:27,350 --> 00:40:29,690 Speaker 4: I can't imagine what you're going to write. This is 755 00:40:29,830 --> 00:40:32,780 Speaker 4: going to be extraordinary. Tani, thank you so much. Tani 756 00:40:32,820 --> 00:40:34,640 Speaker 4: Fikui with MetLife. Too short a visit. 757 00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:40,680 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 758 00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:45,060 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 759 00:40:45,060 --> 00:40:50,490 Speaker 1: 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern, on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, 760 00:40:50,820 --> 00:40:53,890 Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 761 00:40:53,969 --> 00:40:57,970 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.