WEBVTT - Empowering Diversity and Inclusion in Business

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Now in our weekend broadcast that will air this Saturday,

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<v Speaker 2>Matt and I talked with Marcus Shaw, presidency at ALLT Finance,

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<v Speaker 2>on increasing the presence of HBCU students working in the

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<v Speaker 2>ALLT Finance world. We talk a lot about diversity, Matt,

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<v Speaker 2>in all walks of finance and business and more.

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<v Speaker 3>And so do you executives.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like, certainly coming off the pandemics, certainly coming

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<v Speaker 2>off of George Floyd, diversity, inclusion, belonging has been top

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<v Speaker 2>of mind.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, yeah, absolutely, And as it is Asian, American and

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<v Speaker 4>Pacific Islanders a month, we're focused in on that aspect

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<v Speaker 4>of it. But of course we're always watching and doing

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<v Speaker 4>our best to promote gender equit and racial equity as well.

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<v Speaker 3>All Right, We've got a great guest on that. LENEA.

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<v Speaker 2>Irvin is CEO of Cokequill, a global nonprofit think tank

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<v Speaker 2>advisory group founded back in four really to address bias

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<v Speaker 2>and uncover barriers to advancement for underrepresented populations in the workplace,

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<v Speaker 2>and we talk about it a lot. We still have

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of progress to make. Lenaia, thank you so

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<v Speaker 2>much for being with us. Tell us attle bit more

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<v Speaker 2>about your organization specifically. You know, I got that from

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<v Speaker 2>your website. I'm not gonna lie full transparency, but a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of people and organizations are working on diversity. There's

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of conversations and yet we're making progress, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's pretty slow. So tell us a little bit about

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<v Speaker 2>what you do on a daily basis.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I know, a coke cool. So we're a global

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<v Speaker 5>think tank and we've been around nearly twenty years and

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<v Speaker 5>we'll be do as conduct research. So we have a

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<v Speaker 5>great team of PhDs and quants and you know, storytellers.

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<v Speaker 5>We use data to tell stories of bias and barriers

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<v Speaker 5>that talent face in the workplace. How are the stories

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<v Speaker 5>you know, some of them are. You know, they're challenging,

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<v Speaker 5>but they present opportunity. We have a task force of

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<v Speaker 5>over one hundred of the world's largest companies, large multinationals,

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<v Speaker 5>and we advise them on you know, diversity, equity, inclusion,

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<v Speaker 5>best practices. We spend time with their leadership teams as

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<v Speaker 5>they think about cultural transformation and how they can actually

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<v Speaker 5>create the conditions for talent to thrive.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, Yeah, I want to go back. How are the stories?

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<v Speaker 2>You guys are doing the data and you're checking it

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<v Speaker 2>and then you're obviously presenting it to these big companies

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<v Speaker 2>that you're working with. Just set the stage for us

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<v Speaker 2>because I think it's a good reality check in terms.

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<v Speaker 5>Of where we are right So, you know, we're here

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<v Speaker 5>obviously we're focused on Asian, Asian, American and Pacific islanders

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<v Speaker 5>this month, and you know, the stories that we hear

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<v Speaker 5>when we look across talent, across lines of difference. You know,

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<v Speaker 5>there's there's just this persistent set of barriers that often

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<v Speaker 5>go unseen by leaders in the work environment, often go

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<v Speaker 5>unseen by you know, colleagues for example. So we just

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<v Speaker 5>launched to study strangers at home, and you know, the

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<v Speaker 5>study really does fill a gap in existing research, at

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<v Speaker 5>least we believe as it relates to Asian, Asian, American

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<v Speaker 5>and Pacific islanders, and we give a little bit of

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<v Speaker 5>horror historical context, but then we bring visibility into the

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<v Speaker 5>ways anti Asian violence has impacted this talent in the workplace.

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<v Speaker 5>Outside of the workplace, we.

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<v Speaker 3>Have colleagues here that's certainly coming off a.

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<v Speaker 4>Worse over the past few years, Asian American violence against

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<v Speaker 4>Asian Americans.

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<v Speaker 5>I think we've all witnessed a pronounced increase. And what

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<v Speaker 5>we find in the data is because.

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<v Speaker 2>The pandemic specifically right and then it was coming from Asia.

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<v Speaker 2>We have colleagues here that they had their spouse is

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<v Speaker 2>picking them up because they didn't want them on public transportation.

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<v Speaker 5>Absolutely, sixty two percent of our respondents said that the

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<v Speaker 5>increase in violence, you know, COVID nineteen has cautioned them

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<v Speaker 5>and they're commute to work right, you know, nearly two thirds,

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<v Speaker 5>nearly two thirds of Asian professionals say that this ongoing

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<v Speaker 5>violence has impacted their their mental health. More than half

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<v Speaker 5>say that it actually impacts their their ability to be

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<v Speaker 5>productive at work, their ability to focus at work, their

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<v Speaker 5>their relationships with their managers and colleagues, who you know,

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<v Speaker 5>they're bringing this trauma in and they're surrounded by colleagues

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<v Speaker 5>and perhaps leaders that don't really know how to support them.

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<v Speaker 5>And so just imagine you know, the the near term

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<v Speaker 5>and longer term career impacts that could have.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, So what's the answer in terms of I guess

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<v Speaker 4>education and policy. What should we do specifically?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm most sure, like curious about what moves the needle

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<v Speaker 2>because we have so many conversations we all do, like

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<v Speaker 2>you know, planning or are we do you know, certain

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<v Speaker 2>training sessions and stuff to make it all better?

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<v Speaker 3>But what really moves the needle?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, you know, it's a it's a combination of things.

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<v Speaker 5>We often put forth a framework. It's simple audit awaken act.

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<v Speaker 5>So we encourage companies and leaders to really kind of

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<v Speaker 5>audit the current state of talent within their their ecosystem,

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<v Speaker 5>within their work environment, and then awakened to some of

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<v Speaker 5>the barriers you know, talent are facing. When we embarked

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<v Speaker 5>on this study around Asian Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, the experiences of microaggressions that are unique to

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<v Speaker 5>Asian talent really surfaced, and I think it's important for

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<v Speaker 5>you know, everyone to kind of understand. So there's this

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<v Speaker 5>experience in two sets. You know, there's this experience of

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<v Speaker 5>being made to feel the perpetual foreigner, right, so you know,

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<v Speaker 5>having colleagues assume that you're not born in the US,

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<v Speaker 5>or when you say I'm born in the US, they

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<v Speaker 5>don't know where are you really from, right, Or they're

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<v Speaker 5>telling you that your English is good, right, the assumption

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<v Speaker 5>is that English is not your first language. So they

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<v Speaker 5>have this constant othering. And then on the flip side, right,

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<v Speaker 5>a counter to that, which it's kind of derived from

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<v Speaker 5>the model minority myth our research kind of frames as

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<v Speaker 5>over validation, right. And again it's it's in the way

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<v Speaker 5>that shows up is the assumption that, Okay, their colleagues

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<v Speaker 5>think Asian Asian Americans are they work harder, right from

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<v Speaker 5>a stereotype, they're naturally smarter because of their race, they're

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<v Speaker 5>perhaps only good at math or science, and so they

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<v Speaker 5>feel pigeonholed. A lot of Asian professionals, you know this, Look,

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<v Speaker 5>we can be considered subject matter experts, but they're not

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<v Speaker 5>considering us for leadership, right, So they're kind of dealing

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<v Speaker 5>with and you initially people like, oh, that might be

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<v Speaker 5>a tail when they think you're smarter, but the harm

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<v Speaker 5>comes in limiting your ability and can I.

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<v Speaker 3>Ask you something?

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<v Speaker 4>Is it?

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<v Speaker 2>You know in terms of as we all try to

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<v Speaker 2>get smarter on all of this and be more inclusive

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<v Speaker 2>and make more people feel belong like they belong in environments.

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<v Speaker 3>Is it different in.

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<v Speaker 2>Terms of the exclusion that Asian Americans feel versus Black

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<v Speaker 2>Americans versus I don't know, LGBTQ community. I am curious

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<v Speaker 2>about in your conversations with big corporations how they do

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<v Speaker 2>they put all diversity and inclusion in one bucket Because

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<v Speaker 2>I have a hard time too when we have like

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<v Speaker 2>different groups for different people.

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<v Speaker 3>Because if we're trying to be inclusive, if we.

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<v Speaker 2>Keep branching everything out, that to me is exclusive rather

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<v Speaker 2>than inclusive idolic.

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<v Speaker 3>So I can't get my head around it.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, no, so we do. We do encourage when you

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<v Speaker 5>look at data, for example, within an organization, disaggregating the

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<v Speaker 5>data data does help you to see where there might

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<v Speaker 5>be varied experiences for smaller groups right in way of representation,

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<v Speaker 5>you know. But what we encourage, you know, companies to

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<v Speaker 5>do is really consider who might not be given the

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<v Speaker 5>same opportunities for advancement or development just by virtue of

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<v Speaker 5>perhaps not being seen right. You know, we think about

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<v Speaker 5>whether it's representation of women in the c suite or

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<v Speaker 5>representation of LGBTQ talent or black talent, you know, thinking

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<v Speaker 5>about Okay, how can you be not only great allies

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<v Speaker 5>but sponsors to these communities across lines of difference, Because

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<v Speaker 5>I agree, you know there's there are limits to saying,

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<v Speaker 5>well this group, we target this group and only support

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<v Speaker 5>this group, we target that group, only support this group.

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<v Speaker 5>I think where we win is look at the data,

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<v Speaker 5>Look where there are we look where there are barriers, right,

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<v Speaker 5>look where there is retention and advancement gaps, and say

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<v Speaker 5>how can we better deliver for that particular cohort and

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<v Speaker 5>make sure that it's something that's top of mind for

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<v Speaker 5>all leaders.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, So in terms I mean, you're not just someone

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<v Speaker 4>who runs a think tank. You've also worked in corporate America.

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<v Speaker 4>You've been on the street, yes, at Bank America, leading

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<v Speaker 4>a huge organization there. Do you think that we're making

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<v Speaker 4>progress on this on the diversity inclusion issues in general

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<v Speaker 4>as a society, And I wonder what your take is

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<v Speaker 4>in terms of is Wall Street doing any better or

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<v Speaker 4>worse than the rest of the industry.

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<v Speaker 5>You know what, I will say progress is being made.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm sure there are many that would say that it's

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<v Speaker 5>not being made fast enough. I might be in that camp,

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<v Speaker 5>but I know what the desk looked like twenty years ago.

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<v Speaker 5>I know what it's like to be the only black woman,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, in that particular business, the only.

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<v Speaker 2>Marcus said the same thing when we had him on

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<v Speaker 2>when he was you know, in his first financial firm.

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<v Speaker 5>Absolutely, and so you know those experiences and you build

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<v Speaker 5>allyship and and you know with with folks there. But

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<v Speaker 5>I do, I do believe that Wall Street is unrecognizable

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<v Speaker 5>to what it was a couple decades ago. You know,

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<v Speaker 5>there are there are not only c suite but CEOs

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<v Speaker 5>at these firms who truly believe that, you know, the

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<v Speaker 5>diversity within their ranks.

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<v Speaker 2>Groups, yes, Black Americans, Asian Americans, LGBTK.

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<v Speaker 3>It is it is.

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<v Speaker 5>Not only is it important and it is the right

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<v Speaker 5>thing to do and align with values, but it's also

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<v Speaker 5>a competitive necessity. We are living in a world of disruption,

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<v Speaker 5>right You've got to be able to activate talent if

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<v Speaker 5>you're going to compete. You know, it's an the exponential age.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't know, Marcus said, You've got to let your

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<v Speaker 4>greed overcome your bias.

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<v Speaker 5>Absolutely. Absolutely, You're a number on the street before you're

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<v Speaker 5>you know, a face or anything else.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, great to check in with you and appreciate you

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<v Speaker 2>stopping by. Lenaia Irvin, CEO of Coke Will joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>You're in studio.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

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<v Speaker 2>So a tense appeals court hearing yesterday over the FDA's

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<v Speaker 2>approval of the abortion pill force the agency and the

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<v Speaker 2>myth of pro stones forgive me brand new manufacturer to

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<v Speaker 2>clarify confusion over the agency's authority.

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<v Speaker 3>And regulatory processes.

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<v Speaker 2>We know that this has been going on meantime. Also

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<v Speaker 2>this week, Matt, we had North Carolina's Republican dominated legislature

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<v Speaker 2>upheld a bill banning the most abortions after twelve weeks.

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<v Speaker 2>So there's a lot going on when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>women's reproductive rights.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, this is a huge issue and it's

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<v Speaker 4>going to be name done yet it's going to be

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<v Speaker 4>a big issue I think in the upcoming election, and

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<v Speaker 4>the kind of thing that I wouldn't normally want to

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<v Speaker 4>touch with a ten foot poll. So it surprises me

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<v Speaker 4>to see Republicans getting so involved.

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<v Speaker 3>What's been on their platform for a long time, and

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<v Speaker 3>they but.

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<v Speaker 4>They haven't been as as they haven't been as loud

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<v Speaker 4>about it, you know, and I think they run the

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<v Speaker 4>risk of alienating a lot of people and then just

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<v Speaker 4>carrying the thirty percent that they always care no matter what.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's the political side.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's actually just get an update a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>more with Bloomberg News equality reporter Kelsey Butler.

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<v Speaker 3>She's on the phone in New York City.

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<v Speaker 2>So Kelsey, I just gave some of the headlines, but

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<v Speaker 2>gets up to speed and kind of where we are

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<v Speaker 2>in this and kind of the trend that we continue

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<v Speaker 2>to see when it comes to women's reproductive rights.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, we're definitely seeing a continued erosion of abortion access

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<v Speaker 6>across the country. I just had a story out last

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<v Speaker 6>week and since then there have been other restrictions that

0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:48.240
<v Speaker 6>have passed. In North Carolina, there is now a twelve

0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:50.360
<v Speaker 6>week band that will be going into a fact soon.

0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.719
<v Speaker 6>So it's things are moving at a breakneck speed and

0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:58.080
<v Speaker 6>evolving really day to day. And what we're really seeing

0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:03.040
<v Speaker 6>is now really the south of the country, the Midwest.

0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:07.880
<v Speaker 6>There are large regions where there's really no abortion access

0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:08.480
<v Speaker 6>for patients.

0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.160
<v Speaker 4>So, Kelsey, does that go hand in hand with support?

0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:14.040
<v Speaker 4>I mean, you know, on the pro life side of things,

0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:17.760
<v Speaker 4>they want women to have these babies, so I'm assuming

0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:21.760
<v Speaker 4>they're also providing a lot more support in terms of daycare,

0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:26.120
<v Speaker 4>a lot more support in terms of helping mothers raise

0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:27.600
<v Speaker 4>these children. Are we seeing that?

0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.640
<v Speaker 6>We're definitely not seeing that. I mean, the US is

0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:35.559
<v Speaker 6>far behind when it comes to maternal health, has one

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 6>of the worst maternal mortality rates in the developed world,

0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.880
<v Speaker 6>and we know that there is a childcare crisis in

0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.040
<v Speaker 6>this country as well. These are all things that our

0:12:46.080 --> 0:12:48.680
<v Speaker 6>team writes about a lot, so we're not really seeing

0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:52.079
<v Speaker 6>in a lot of these places. They also rank really

0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:57.400
<v Speaker 6>low on things like childcare supports for new moms pregnant

0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:02.880
<v Speaker 6>people as well, So it's just compounded really bad situation.

0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:06.560
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Kelsey, last question here, what else is on the

0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:08.040
<v Speaker 2>docket that we need to be kind of keep on

0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:08.760
<v Speaker 2>our radar here?

0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:13.800
<v Speaker 6>I think the biggest thing is the current litigation on

0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 6>the abortion pill is the most common method of ending

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:22.720
<v Speaker 6>pregnancies right now in the US, and any limiting access

0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:26.200
<v Speaker 6>to that will certainly have ramifications for patients. Across the country.

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.199
<v Speaker 2>All right, really appreciate the update, because there's been a

0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.640
<v Speaker 2>lot going on, certainly on this front. Bloomberg News Equality

0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:34.160
<v Speaker 2>reporter Kelsey Butler on the phone in New York City. Well,

0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:37.480
<v Speaker 2>the wrangling definitely continuing over women's reproductive rights, so too

0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 2>often a debate between breastfeeding and baby formula. Our next

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 2>guest has some thoughts on that. Let's get to Cecilia

0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:46.679
<v Speaker 2>to Maury, Associate professor at the Johns Hopkins School of

0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 2>Nursing in the Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Population,

0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:52.839
<v Speaker 2>Family and Reproductive Health, of course, the Bloomberg School of

0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:55.280
<v Speaker 2>Public Health, supported by Michael our Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg

0:13:55.400 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 2>LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Cecilia joining us on Zoom from Baltimore, Maryland. Cecilia,

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 2>I can't tell you how much we have been talking

0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:05.000
<v Speaker 2>about this in the newsroom.

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.320
<v Speaker 3>Matt scot a young daughter. I had a daughter, she's

0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:08.840
<v Speaker 3>now twenty.

0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 2>But you know, the debate between breastfeeding and formula, there's

0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 2>so much. Tell us kind of what's top of mind

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:14.960
<v Speaker 2>for you here?

0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:18.560
<v Speaker 7>Sure? I mean, I don't you know, I don't think

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:20.240
<v Speaker 7>it needs to be a debate I think that would

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.960
<v Speaker 7>be my first point. So, as an expert in the field,

0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:25.840
<v Speaker 7>I think what we need to be thinking about is

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:29.680
<v Speaker 7>how do we enable people to be able to thrive,

0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:33.200
<v Speaker 7>to parent, and to be able to feed their babies responsively,

0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:37.080
<v Speaker 7>and to enable people to breastfeed if they desire for

0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:38.280
<v Speaker 7>as long as they wish.

0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 4>Isn't it advisable? And I know this sort of throws

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 4>me into the debate in a sense, but isn't it

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.320
<v Speaker 4>advisable to breastfeed if you can it? Doesn't it provide

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.200
<v Speaker 4>the child with a massive advantage in terms of health

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:54.200
<v Speaker 4>and development?

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:55.520
<v Speaker 1>Yes?

0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:57.800
<v Speaker 7>Absolutely. I think that the best way to think about

0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 7>this is that this is the feeding norm for human beings.

0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:05.240
<v Speaker 7>We are part of the group of mammals. This is

0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 7>a very ancient evolutionary adaptation and so it is set

0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 7>up to essentially provide a series of protect and protective

0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:19.320
<v Speaker 7>benefits from infectious disease to noncommunicable diseases, and it basically

0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:22.720
<v Speaker 7>has implications for the entire life course. What I think

0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:26.760
<v Speaker 7>is lesser known is that there are significant implications for

0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:31.360
<v Speaker 7>mothers as well, for ovarian cancer, for breast cancer, as

0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:34.680
<v Speaker 7>well as for metabolic diseases. So it really is a

0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:38.760
<v Speaker 7>system with many, many different components and with effects over

0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:40.360
<v Speaker 7>the entire life course socily.

0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:42.640
<v Speaker 2>To be fair, Matt and I've been talking also, and

0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:48.360
<v Speaker 2>his wife had some difficulties. I had some difficulties early on.

0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:50.640
<v Speaker 4>My way, which, by the way, I didn't expect. No

0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:53.280
<v Speaker 4>one prepared us for the fact that it's hard, might

0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 4>be tough for the baby to latch, It could be

0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:58.720
<v Speaker 4>very it could be painful to very painful, and we

0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:03.400
<v Speaker 4>could eventually had problems like mastitis. She had fevers of

0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 4>one hundred and four degrees. We were back in the

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:07.880
<v Speaker 4>hospital two or three times. I had no idea this

0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:08.600
<v Speaker 4>was going to happen.

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.800
<v Speaker 2>And for women and for first time moms, there's enough

0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:14.080
<v Speaker 2>going on with your hormones and there's a lot of pressure,

0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.680
<v Speaker 2>So how do you kind of think about that, because

0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:17.560
<v Speaker 2>it can be very.

0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:21.400
<v Speaker 7>Absolutely that is actually the point. So the work that

0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:24.200
<v Speaker 7>we've been doing on the Lens of Breastfeeding series that

0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:26.680
<v Speaker 7>came out in February and that was launched in April

0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:30.200
<v Speaker 7>and the United States is exactly about this. So the

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:33.560
<v Speaker 7>argument that we're making is that it's not up to

0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:38.720
<v Speaker 7>individuals to address systemic failures. It's actually a societal, whole

0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:44.440
<v Speaker 7>society of responsibility to enact policies that support people much

0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:47.160
<v Speaker 7>much better than these experiences that you have just shared

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:49.800
<v Speaker 7>with me, which are very common and part of the reasons.

0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:51.480
<v Speaker 3>Why what do the work we do? What do you

0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 3>mean in terms of policies.

0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 7>So a whole series of recommendations that we made, so

0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:58.920
<v Speaker 7>we really are thinking about this as a systems kind

0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:02.440
<v Speaker 7>of approach. So this is multiple systems coming together the

0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:06.199
<v Speaker 7>health system, so implementing a series of steps that we

0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:09.719
<v Speaker 7>know work to actually support people within the health system,

0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:14.520
<v Speaker 7>from the Baby Friendly Hospital initiative, to skilled support to communities,

0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:19.600
<v Speaker 7>steps that follow people postpartum, to workplace policies, which I

0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:22.840
<v Speaker 7>think we need to mention and highlight because as the

0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:27.200
<v Speaker 7>previous reporter also mentioned, we are extremely far behind among

0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:31.720
<v Speaker 7>even wealthy countries. We are the only OECD nation that

0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:37.159
<v Speaker 7>lacks federal paid leave and has minimal supports for people

0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:40.399
<v Speaker 7>at the workplace when they do return to work. So

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:42.160
<v Speaker 7>many people are returns.

0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:46.600
<v Speaker 4>So insane considering you have, you know, a large group

0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:48.800
<v Speaker 4>of people in this country that are so opposed to

0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:52.640
<v Speaker 4>abortion and yet they don't back any kind of support

0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:56.560
<v Speaker 4>for the resultant babies and The other thing that really

0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.720
<v Speaker 4>grinds my gears, Cecilia, is that, oh, if a man

0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:02.800
<v Speaker 4>and men had these problems like mass titis, which most

0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:03.400
<v Speaker 4>men have no.

0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 3>Idea about it, that babies, we wouldn't be.

0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:09.640
<v Speaker 4>Se and doctors would research and treat the problems better. Right.

0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:12.120
<v Speaker 4>I would look back into the after my wife came

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:14.040
<v Speaker 4>down with this for the second or third time, I

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:16.480
<v Speaker 4>looked back into the research and found the only reason

0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:19.200
<v Speaker 4>that doctors started looking into it at all was because

0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:23.200
<v Speaker 4>cows weren't producing enough milk. It's truly unbelievable.

0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.959
<v Speaker 7>Erry It's an appalling situation, and that's one of the

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:28.920
<v Speaker 7>things that we actually call for is much more attention

0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:34.360
<v Speaker 7>for healthcare providers in their training on lactation and interlinked

0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:38.720
<v Speaker 7>to that, also, we call for regulations on the marketing

0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:44.960
<v Speaker 7>from commercial milk formula makers who have been aggressively marketing

0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:49.840
<v Speaker 7>products and undermining breastfeeding using a series of very sophisticated

0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:53.760
<v Speaker 7>and far reaching tactics. So what we're calling for is

0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:58.120
<v Speaker 7>actually a whole societal policy approach that puts together all

0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:02.399
<v Speaker 7>these systems, so the houses stem to the workplace, to

0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:07.560
<v Speaker 7>marketing regulations, so all of this together to actually provide

0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:10.680
<v Speaker 7>the suppurtse to enable people to breastfeed. So that's a

0:19:10.800 --> 0:19:14.160
<v Speaker 7>very different kind of argument than I think the debates

0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:18.399
<v Speaker 7>on social media, you know, suggest that is not at

0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:20.359
<v Speaker 7>all what we are talking about. We're not talking about

0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:24.640
<v Speaker 7>individuals solving societal problems. We're calling for systemic change.

0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:26.560
<v Speaker 2>I got to say here at Bloomberg, they were very

0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:28.320
<v Speaker 2>good and there was a place where you could come

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:30.600
<v Speaker 2>to work after I came back to work after Aggie

0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:33.280
<v Speaker 2>was born, and you know, you could pump if you

0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:36.080
<v Speaker 2>needed to, and made it possible to kind of continue breastfeeding,

0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:37.879
<v Speaker 2>which was a really plus for me.

0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:39.680
<v Speaker 3>Cecilia, thank you so much.

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:41.760
<v Speaker 2>Feel like we don't talk about this enough and feel

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:44.960
<v Speaker 2>like this was just a conversation that needed to be had.

0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:48.359
<v Speaker 2>Cecilia Tomory, Associate Professor the Johns Hopkins School of Nursing

0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:50.880
<v Speaker 2>and the Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Population,

0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:53.480
<v Speaker 2>Family and Reproductive Health.

0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:55.440
<v Speaker 3>On Zoom from Baltimore, Maryland. Any final thoughts there.

0:19:55.720 --> 0:19:57.560
<v Speaker 4>I just think it's a good conversation to have, and

0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:00.280
<v Speaker 4>we need to keep talking about it until we treat

0:20:00.280 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 4>it like a real health issue and real support.

0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:07.200
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:11.240
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0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:14.720
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0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:21.120
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0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:25.680
<v Speaker 2>Thirty well as the debt ceiling and budget negotiations continue

0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 2>in the US this week. In the new issue of

0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:30.760
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Business Week, out on newsstands, online at Bloomberg dot com,

0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:33.880
<v Speaker 2>slash BusinessWeek, and of course, on the Bloomberg Terminal, the

0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:36.960
<v Speaker 2>cover story is this week's remarks. It's about king dollar

0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:39.480
<v Speaker 2>and how the crown is slipping on the US green

0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:42.320
<v Speaker 2>back and dollar denominated assets thanks to a few things

0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:45.920
<v Speaker 2>going on, including that debt sealing standoff, regional bank failures,

0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:48.120
<v Speaker 2>and a few other things. So let's get into it

0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 2>and to explain really the implications of America's self inflicted

0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:55.320
<v Speaker 2>policy wounds with US. Is Bloomberg News Global Economy Reporter

0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:59.360
<v Speaker 2>endacurrent on cam in our DC bureau. BusinessWeek Global Economics

0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:02.240
<v Speaker 2>editor Christiane Lynblad to my left and the editor of

0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.800
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg BusinessWeek Magazine, Joel Weber to my right, both in

0:21:05.840 --> 0:21:09.119
<v Speaker 2>our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio Jiel. I feel like the

0:21:09.200 --> 0:21:13.040
<v Speaker 2>mighty US dollar. It's still rained supreme, but it's getting

0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 2>a bit tattered.

0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:14.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:16.600
<v Speaker 8>And as we were kind of talking about this story,

0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:19.280
<v Speaker 8>it was like, wow, you just start to think about

0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:22.439
<v Speaker 8>all the things that are poised to go wrong in

0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:24.240
<v Speaker 8>the US. And I told my art department, I was like,

0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:26.679
<v Speaker 8>just imagine this house where the floorboards are coming in,

0:21:26.720 --> 0:21:29.479
<v Speaker 8>the walls are caving in, the debt ceiling, the ceiling

0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:33.879
<v Speaker 8>caving in. Sounds like Matt Miller's house, right, And uh

0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:37.280
<v Speaker 8>that led us to, you know, take a look at

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:41.040
<v Speaker 8>this story from from uh Celeia Mosen and the Current,

0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:44.800
<v Speaker 8>and boy, it just felt very of the moment as

0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:47.560
<v Speaker 8>all eyes continue to kind of like go towards DC.

0:21:47.720 --> 0:21:52.520
<v Speaker 8>And you know, this debt thing Matt is is bad, yes,

0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:53.880
<v Speaker 8>and there's no resolution yet.

0:21:54.080 --> 0:21:57.760
<v Speaker 4>It's got to be worry worrisome to our allies.

0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:01.080
<v Speaker 8>And when you do this again and again and again,

0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:02.800
<v Speaker 8>it makes I think a lot of people around the

0:22:02.800 --> 0:22:06.600
<v Speaker 8>world go, you know, maybe this America thing isn't what

0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:09.480
<v Speaker 8>we need as the gold standard here.

0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:14.840
<v Speaker 4>Absolutely. I also wonder about something like the Russian invasion

0:22:14.840 --> 0:22:19.679
<v Speaker 4>of Ukraine and the resultant American sanctions, you know, and

0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:22.720
<v Speaker 4>the demands that we put on our allies and our

0:22:22.760 --> 0:22:25.520
<v Speaker 4>other trading partners. Christina, how important is that because I

0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:29.600
<v Speaker 4>noticed right around the time that started, the Saudis started

0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 4>selling their oil to China in un and so you know,

0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:36.080
<v Speaker 4>for example, I talk about the Bloomberg Dollar index, that's

0:22:36.119 --> 0:22:39.040
<v Speaker 4>probably not the deciding factor, right, the actual value of

0:22:39.080 --> 0:22:44.879
<v Speaker 4>the currency, but what people choose to use in transactions

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:45.880
<v Speaker 4>is far more important.

0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:49.159
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, there's been a big push since the invasion for

0:22:49.280 --> 0:22:52.080
<v Speaker 9>some countries, you know, to start using more of their

0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:54.919
<v Speaker 9>own currencies or the currencies of their trading partners. And

0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:57.440
<v Speaker 9>I think it is definitely a result of the US

0:22:57.560 --> 0:23:02.000
<v Speaker 9>trying to weaponize its leadership. It's basically, it's fingerprints are

0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:04.800
<v Speaker 9>all over the world financial system, not just the use

0:23:04.800 --> 0:23:06.880
<v Speaker 9>of the dollar, but the way it was designed, going

0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:11.000
<v Speaker 9>back to Breton Woods, right, And I think you know, well, Russia,

0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:14.120
<v Speaker 9>this was the first time a central bank was targeted directly,

0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:18.160
<v Speaker 9>which with sanctions, So you know, Russia central bank, it's

0:23:18.240 --> 0:23:21.359
<v Speaker 9>offshore reserves were cut off. And I think other countries

0:23:21.400 --> 0:23:24.000
<v Speaker 9>looked at this and said, oh no, you know, we

0:23:24.080 --> 0:23:26.560
<v Speaker 9>don't want to be in a similar situation, but aside

0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:29.720
<v Speaker 9>from de dollarization and the aspirations other countries have about

0:23:29.760 --> 0:23:32.640
<v Speaker 9>their own currencies, I mean, I think it's it's it's

0:23:32.680 --> 0:23:36.400
<v Speaker 9>the self inflicted wounds that we really wanted to focus on, right,

0:23:36.680 --> 0:23:41.280
<v Speaker 9>Like even small things that add up, like the improprieties

0:23:41.400 --> 0:23:46.119
<v Speaker 9>with stocked trating amongst you know, central bank officials, you know,

0:23:46.200 --> 0:23:49.600
<v Speaker 9>ethics questions in the Supreme Court. People sort of seem

0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:51.439
<v Speaker 9>to think, oh, you can brush these things off, but

0:23:51.520 --> 0:23:54.159
<v Speaker 9>they start adding up to the idea that you know,

0:23:54.280 --> 0:23:58.200
<v Speaker 9>the US has this prestige right, and it's wearing down.

0:23:58.840 --> 0:24:00.639
<v Speaker 1>So into you.

0:24:00.640 --> 0:24:03.919
<v Speaker 8>You you're uniquely capable having been in Hong Kong for

0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:06.720
<v Speaker 8>a while, and now you're on this side of the pond.

0:24:07.240 --> 0:24:10.440
<v Speaker 8>What does it bring that international perspective to this? How

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:14.880
<v Speaker 8>vulnerable is US prestige in the American down So.

0:24:15.000 --> 0:24:17.760
<v Speaker 10>Even if a dead ceiling agreement is reached over the

0:24:17.760 --> 0:24:20.320
<v Speaker 10>next week or so, the optics of this are just

0:24:20.480 --> 0:24:23.680
<v Speaker 10>horrible for the US economy globally, and for US leadership

0:24:23.800 --> 0:24:26.680
<v Speaker 10>and for US influence. And you know, one side subplot

0:24:26.680 --> 0:24:29.720
<v Speaker 10>from this death ceiling drama was that President Biden couldn't

0:24:29.760 --> 0:24:32.000
<v Speaker 10>go to Port Moresby and Papua New Guinea for an

0:24:32.040 --> 0:24:36.600
<v Speaker 10>unprecedented meeting with Pacific Island leaders. That might not send

0:24:36.680 --> 0:24:38.080
<v Speaker 10>much to person on the street in the US, but

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:40.919
<v Speaker 10>those Pacific Islands are one of the fault lines for

0:24:40.920 --> 0:24:43.320
<v Speaker 10>the tussle between China and US for influencing that part

0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:43.840
<v Speaker 10>of the world.

0:24:45.119 --> 0:24:45.280
<v Speaker 6>Right.

0:24:45.359 --> 0:24:47.320
<v Speaker 4>It's Asian American Pacific Islanders.

0:24:46.960 --> 0:24:50.320
<v Speaker 10>Month, right, and they have a summer going on for Moresby,

0:24:50.359 --> 0:24:52.439
<v Speaker 10>and the US President couldn't go there, and that's the

0:24:52.440 --> 0:24:54.679
<v Speaker 10>direct result of what's going on. The other point is

0:24:55.000 --> 0:24:57.560
<v Speaker 10>I have never seen a frenzy like we've seen over

0:24:57.600 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 10>the past few weeks about talk of d dollar rization,

0:25:00.680 --> 0:25:04.399
<v Speaker 10>both from the investment community, the academic community, and the

0:25:04.440 --> 0:25:07.000
<v Speaker 10>policy world. And we all know the obvious counterpoint as well,

0:25:07.119 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 10>there's no alternative. Everybody knows there's no alternative for the moment.

0:25:10.080 --> 0:25:11.800
<v Speaker 10>But I can tell you it's a talking point like

0:25:11.840 --> 0:25:14.639
<v Speaker 10>it never has been before. And that reflects, I think,

0:25:14.920 --> 0:25:17.520
<v Speaker 10>on the internalist function that we're seeing in US policy making.

0:25:17.640 --> 0:25:19.640
<v Speaker 2>I have to say, and you know, you know, go back.

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:21.439
<v Speaker 2>I don't know how many years, or I feel like

0:25:21.520 --> 0:25:24.000
<v Speaker 2>even a year ago that the thought of the US

0:25:24.240 --> 0:25:27.760
<v Speaker 2>really defaulting on their debt like that was just non existent.

0:25:28.119 --> 0:25:29.680
<v Speaker 2>But it does feel like that there's a lot more

0:25:29.720 --> 0:25:32.600
<v Speaker 2>momentum based on kind of these self inflicted wounds that

0:25:32.640 --> 0:25:34.760
<v Speaker 2>we keep seeing that you just wonder what the heck

0:25:34.840 --> 0:25:36.200
<v Speaker 2>is going on in this country.

0:25:36.800 --> 0:25:38.480
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, and by the way, if you just go back

0:25:38.480 --> 0:25:42.040
<v Speaker 10>a few steps the blame game over inflation. There are

0:25:42.119 --> 0:25:44.439
<v Speaker 10>rights and wrongst that story, but the point is the

0:25:44.560 --> 0:25:47.280
<v Speaker 10>US missed the development inflation, and of course that spread

0:25:47.320 --> 0:25:50.840
<v Speaker 10>globally because US monitor policy goes globally because the dollar

0:25:50.920 --> 0:25:52.600
<v Speaker 10>is what's used to buy and paid for stuff all

0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:55.440
<v Speaker 10>around the world. So there was US inflation. Secondly, there

0:25:55.480 --> 0:25:58.239
<v Speaker 10>was the US banking shop, the biggest shock since the

0:25:58.280 --> 0:26:00.760
<v Speaker 10>financial crisis that toppled one of the world biggest banks

0:26:00.760 --> 0:26:03.119
<v Speaker 10>over in Switzerland, Credit Sweet. And now of course we

0:26:03.200 --> 0:26:06.000
<v Speaker 10>have this row over the debt ceiling where the US

0:26:06.040 --> 0:26:07.879
<v Speaker 10>government is having to come out and tell people, actually,

0:26:07.920 --> 0:26:10.560
<v Speaker 10>we're not going to default something. Really you never thought

0:26:10.600 --> 0:26:13.360
<v Speaker 10>you'd have to hear them say so. As we try

0:26:13.359 --> 0:26:16.320
<v Speaker 10>to articulate in the piece, nobody's arguing that there will

0:26:16.320 --> 0:26:18.560
<v Speaker 10>be a default. Nobody's saying that it is the end

0:26:18.560 --> 0:26:20.399
<v Speaker 10>of the dollar. But you'd have to say the optics

0:26:20.400 --> 0:26:21.440
<v Speaker 10>of this are not good at all.

0:26:21.560 --> 0:26:21.760
<v Speaker 7>Yeah.

0:26:22.200 --> 0:26:26.600
<v Speaker 8>The quote from Sarah House of Wells Fargo definitely caught

0:26:26.640 --> 0:26:28.919
<v Speaker 8>my attention because she says, you don't even need to

0:26:29.000 --> 0:26:30.720
<v Speaker 8>actually default in the debt for there to be real

0:26:30.800 --> 0:26:33.280
<v Speaker 8>damage to the economy. So walk through that, because, like

0:26:33.359 --> 0:26:35.280
<v Speaker 8>I mean, obviously, the worst case in here here is

0:26:35.320 --> 0:26:38.399
<v Speaker 8>that somehow we do default, the US does default. But

0:26:38.520 --> 0:26:41.640
<v Speaker 8>even if we don't, all of this could be really bad, right,

0:26:41.920 --> 0:26:45.800
<v Speaker 8>and maybe worth mentioning some of the Bloomberg economics data

0:26:45.840 --> 0:26:48.200
<v Speaker 8>that you guys were able to incorporate into the story too.

0:26:49.400 --> 0:26:52.040
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I mean, obviously, at the very least, will prompt

0:26:52.800 --> 0:26:54.679
<v Speaker 10>governments and central banks around the world to look for

0:26:54.680 --> 0:26:57.320
<v Speaker 10>alternatives in terms of managing their investments. It might start

0:26:57.359 --> 0:27:00.480
<v Speaker 10>to look away from US government bonds, and that itself

0:27:00.560 --> 0:27:03.520
<v Speaker 10>might start to drive up US boring costs over time,

0:27:03.560 --> 0:27:05.879
<v Speaker 10>and as we discussed earlier, it might start to accelerate

0:27:05.880 --> 0:27:09.680
<v Speaker 10>the use of alternatives, pushing other trading partners into other camps.

0:27:09.720 --> 0:27:11.560
<v Speaker 10>I mean, chinae seems to be out there every day

0:27:11.560 --> 0:27:13.840
<v Speaker 10>of the week offering swap lines and trying to get

0:27:13.880 --> 0:27:17.160
<v Speaker 10>people to buy and sell in their currency, for example.

0:27:17.320 --> 0:27:19.560
<v Speaker 10>So the fact that we're in this space at all

0:27:20.040 --> 0:27:23.399
<v Speaker 10>is just corrosive and eroodes the US includents that we're

0:27:23.440 --> 0:27:23.960
<v Speaker 10>talking about.

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:26.560
<v Speaker 2>So where do they go though, because in your story

0:27:26.600 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 2>you talk about treasuries, right, twenty four trillion dollar market,

0:27:29.920 --> 0:27:33.360
<v Speaker 2>You talk about central banks their official currency reserves still

0:27:33.400 --> 0:27:36.760
<v Speaker 2>sixty percent. It's down certainly from a peak, but there's

0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:39.800
<v Speaker 2>still so much that's you know, in demand when it

0:27:39.800 --> 0:27:42.920
<v Speaker 2>comes to dollar denominated assets, and specifically.

0:27:42.200 --> 0:27:45.320
<v Speaker 4>Get what happen eleven when we had our credit rating. Yeah,

0:27:45.359 --> 0:27:46.640
<v Speaker 4>cut everyone.

0:27:46.280 --> 0:27:47.840
<v Speaker 3>Poorting that treasure exactly.

0:27:47.880 --> 0:27:50.040
<v Speaker 9>And we actually pointed that out in the story because

0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:52.600
<v Speaker 9>there was a Bloomberg survey that came out this week

0:27:52.640 --> 0:27:55.320
<v Speaker 9>that said, like, you know, I think they asked people where,

0:27:55.359 --> 0:27:58.600
<v Speaker 9>you know, after gold I think it was like, treasure

0:27:58.680 --> 0:28:00.240
<v Speaker 9>is worth the number I mean, and that is this

0:28:00.359 --> 0:28:03.040
<v Speaker 9>irony right like that it's it's still the safe haven.

0:28:03.320 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 9>But we were looking in the story at the long

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:08.120
<v Speaker 9>sweep of history too, and there was this great Golden

0:28:08.200 --> 0:28:11.800
<v Speaker 9>Report that looked at how the British pound lost its reign,

0:28:12.240 --> 0:28:13.960
<v Speaker 9>you know, and it talked about how there are these

0:28:14.040 --> 0:28:18.840
<v Speaker 9>dynamics where one country over takes another in economic size

0:28:19.040 --> 0:28:22.159
<v Speaker 9>that doesn't automatically cause, like you know, for it to

0:28:22.280 --> 0:28:25.000
<v Speaker 9>lose its status if it already has sort of world

0:28:25.040 --> 0:28:28.080
<v Speaker 9>dominant status as its currency. Then but Alon can come

0:28:28.119 --> 0:28:31.360
<v Speaker 9>a financial crisis, Alon can come a world war, and

0:28:31.400 --> 0:28:34.879
<v Speaker 9>that can be enough. So yeah, I think we're saying

0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:38.200
<v Speaker 9>is you know, there is nothing right now as an alternative,

0:28:38.200 --> 0:28:41.120
<v Speaker 9>But I don't the US should not be complacent. There

0:28:41.120 --> 0:28:45.120
<v Speaker 9>are many many people who are actively engaged in wanting

0:28:45.240 --> 0:28:45.840
<v Speaker 9>to find alter.

0:28:46.160 --> 0:28:50.200
<v Speaker 4>What do you think an alternative could be? You know, China,

0:28:50.400 --> 0:28:54.120
<v Speaker 4>the Chinese one has talked about often. I'm not sure

0:28:54.120 --> 0:28:56.480
<v Speaker 4>how likely that is because when it comes to censorship

0:28:56.680 --> 0:29:00.960
<v Speaker 4>of currencies, you know, China would be right there with

0:29:01.000 --> 0:29:05.000
<v Speaker 4>the US. Is it possible that a decentralized currency, uh

0:29:05.240 --> 0:29:07.880
<v Speaker 4>would ever actually be a contender?

0:29:08.000 --> 0:29:10.360
<v Speaker 9>Well, I think more than that, we could go back

0:29:10.400 --> 0:29:13.400
<v Speaker 9>to a system before Bretton Woods, where there was many

0:29:13.480 --> 0:29:17.600
<v Speaker 9>many different currencies, right, yes, right, it's like Maynard, you know,

0:29:17.640 --> 0:29:20.280
<v Speaker 9>John Maynard Keynes had won the debate, like you know,

0:29:20.640 --> 0:29:23.200
<v Speaker 9>you know, so there, maybe we don't have a dominant

0:29:23.200 --> 0:29:25.280
<v Speaker 9>currency anymore, but we have a more you know, sort

0:29:25.320 --> 0:29:27.680
<v Speaker 9>of evenly spread, you know, And to come.

0:29:27.560 --> 0:29:29.280
<v Speaker 2>On in on this, right, you do have this great

0:29:29.320 --> 0:29:32.160
<v Speaker 2>global perspective, and you've been overseas in Asia. I mean,

0:29:32.320 --> 0:29:34.840
<v Speaker 2>the US economy is still larger than China's, and I

0:29:34.840 --> 0:29:38.520
<v Speaker 2>do wonder what the thinking is realistically about who could be,

0:29:39.040 --> 0:29:42.120
<v Speaker 2>you know, could relay replace the US as kind of

0:29:42.120 --> 0:29:42.960
<v Speaker 2>the world's currency.

0:29:43.880 --> 0:29:45.440
<v Speaker 10>Look, it's going to be a long road for the

0:29:45.480 --> 0:29:48.960
<v Speaker 10>YU one. That's because China has really strict rules on

0:29:49.120 --> 0:29:51.720
<v Speaker 10>moving money into and out of China. They've got like

0:29:51.760 --> 0:29:54.000
<v Speaker 10>a closed capital count that's very different to the US.

0:29:54.200 --> 0:29:56.000
<v Speaker 10>It's obviously there's got a long way to go on

0:29:56.040 --> 0:29:59.040
<v Speaker 10>that respect. But nonetheless, every like I said, every day

0:29:59.080 --> 0:30:03.680
<v Speaker 10>we get announcements by Ladesh, countries in Central Europe, Argentina

0:30:03.800 --> 0:30:06.680
<v Speaker 10>talking about using either sloop lines or other facilities to

0:30:06.760 --> 0:30:09.760
<v Speaker 10>trade and use the one for settlement. That doesn't mean

0:30:09.800 --> 0:30:11.480
<v Speaker 10>the dollar will be toppled overnight, but it starts to

0:30:11.520 --> 0:30:13.960
<v Speaker 10>add to Chana's influence over the global trading system and

0:30:14.000 --> 0:30:16.800
<v Speaker 10>the global economy. And that's of course coming at a

0:30:16.800 --> 0:30:18.960
<v Speaker 10>critical time when the US is very pushing back right

0:30:19.000 --> 0:30:21.880
<v Speaker 10>against that influence. So the One doesn't have to become

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:24.360
<v Speaker 10>the world's number one currency overnight for China to gain

0:30:24.480 --> 0:30:26.320
<v Speaker 10>more influence over the global trading system.

0:30:26.320 --> 0:30:29.200
<v Speaker 8>But the fact that we're even having this conversation is

0:30:29.440 --> 0:30:31.880
<v Speaker 8>part of what's insane about this, right, Like, the US

0:30:31.920 --> 0:30:34.640
<v Speaker 8>has put itself in a situation where people are willing

0:30:34.680 --> 0:30:37.960
<v Speaker 8>to like start having other conversations, and that all goes

0:30:38.040 --> 0:30:40.920
<v Speaker 8>back to how America has not been able to kind

0:30:40.960 --> 0:30:42.320
<v Speaker 8>of shore up its act.

0:30:42.240 --> 0:30:43.200
<v Speaker 4>Time and time again.

0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:45.840
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, and by the way, if I could just say ironically,

0:30:45.840 --> 0:30:47.760
<v Speaker 10>the US has a very strong economy at the month.

0:30:47.800 --> 0:30:49.479
<v Speaker 10>I mean, again, you can argue about it. Is there

0:30:49.880 --> 0:30:51.480
<v Speaker 10>is there a slow downcoming or not. But we had

0:30:51.480 --> 0:30:53.480
<v Speaker 10>another piece of Business Week this week with Reid, Picker

0:30:53.560 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 10>and mccullague making the point that all these economis keep

0:30:56.120 --> 0:30:58.520
<v Speaker 10>calling your sessions, but every time the data comes out

0:30:58.520 --> 0:31:01.480
<v Speaker 10>every month, they're pushing those session calls back. So the

0:31:01.560 --> 0:31:03.880
<v Speaker 10>US is in a position of strength right now, but

0:31:03.920 --> 0:31:06.280
<v Speaker 10>they're just pushing these wounds.

0:31:06.160 --> 0:31:09.760
<v Speaker 4>Because of our world currency reserve status. Right, It's pretty

0:31:09.800 --> 0:31:11.800
<v Speaker 4>easy to have a strong economy if you run trillion

0:31:11.840 --> 0:31:15.360
<v Speaker 4>dollar deficits. I could do it myself. But let's talk

0:31:15.360 --> 0:31:18.440
<v Speaker 4>about what's at stake here, Christina. What benefit do we

0:31:18.480 --> 0:31:21.600
<v Speaker 4>get by having the world reserve currency?

0:31:21.720 --> 0:31:25.160
<v Speaker 9>Well, right, we have a twenty four trillion dollar market

0:31:25.240 --> 0:31:27.960
<v Speaker 9>of debt that everybody wants to buy, and that is

0:31:28.000 --> 0:31:30.880
<v Speaker 9>the biggest thing we can finance, you know. I mean

0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:34.040
<v Speaker 9>if you look at the you know, deficits forever and

0:31:34.920 --> 0:31:37.920
<v Speaker 9>up to recently, the calculus was like that was okay

0:31:37.920 --> 0:31:41.440
<v Speaker 9>because actually, even going into the pandemic, our service our

0:31:41.440 --> 0:31:44.520
<v Speaker 9>debt service costs were falling, right, so we were like

0:31:44.560 --> 0:31:46.760
<v Speaker 9>we had I mean, sorry, after the pandemic, we have

0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:50.000
<v Speaker 9>this huge increase in debt, like and the debt servicing

0:31:50.040 --> 0:31:52.920
<v Speaker 9>costs were falling. It would not take a much of

0:31:52.960 --> 0:31:56.360
<v Speaker 9>an increase in those costs, this financing costs, you know,

0:31:56.480 --> 0:31:59.160
<v Speaker 9>to go up for us to be completely different dynamics

0:31:59.160 --> 0:32:01.920
<v Speaker 9>in this country and talk about austerity, which is something we.

0:32:01.880 --> 0:32:02.440
<v Speaker 1>Have right now.

0:32:02.480 --> 0:32:04.120
<v Speaker 4>I think the way that average cost is about two

0:32:04.160 --> 0:32:05.840
<v Speaker 4>and a half percent, But as long as we have

0:32:05.920 --> 0:32:07.600
<v Speaker 4>nominal growth of seven that's cool.

0:32:07.720 --> 0:32:10.360
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, we can still carry it. Right, But you know,

0:32:10.560 --> 0:32:13.440
<v Speaker 9>if this was another country to have the current account

0:32:13.520 --> 0:32:16.240
<v Speaker 9>deficit that we have to have, like the like the

0:32:16.320 --> 0:32:19.520
<v Speaker 9>net balance that we have, the investment position that we had,

0:32:19.880 --> 0:32:23.360
<v Speaker 9>you know, investment investors with be going bonkers, you know

0:32:23.400 --> 0:32:25.320
<v Speaker 9>and saying, oh my god, you know, this is a

0:32:25.400 --> 0:32:26.840
<v Speaker 9>thing that's waiting to blow.

0:32:26.760 --> 0:32:29.560
<v Speaker 3>And what are the implications. So let's play it out here.

0:32:29.600 --> 0:32:32.000
<v Speaker 2>So let's say the dollar is no longer the world's

0:32:32.080 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 2>reserve currency. What are the implications because I think about

0:32:35.800 --> 0:32:37.600
<v Speaker 2>our investor audience and what they're thinking.

0:32:38.160 --> 0:32:40.479
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, well, so Christina Lea, it will make things more

0:32:40.520 --> 0:32:43.400
<v Speaker 10>expensive for the US in the globe. But also, by

0:32:43.400 --> 0:32:46.160
<v Speaker 10>the way it perversely, it would be a knock to

0:32:46.280 --> 0:32:49.680
<v Speaker 10>emerging economies as well, because even though they complain about

0:32:49.680 --> 0:32:52.360
<v Speaker 10>the US dollar, the US dollar is a channel for

0:32:52.400 --> 0:32:54.640
<v Speaker 10>them to raise finance. Because if there are a lot

0:32:54.640 --> 0:32:56.479
<v Speaker 10>of emerging governments around the world, who if they went

0:32:56.520 --> 0:32:58.720
<v Speaker 10>out to the public bond market to sell a bond

0:32:58.760 --> 0:33:01.160
<v Speaker 10>in their own currency, nobody would touch it. But when

0:33:01.160 --> 0:33:03.200
<v Speaker 10>they go to the global market and selling dollars, they

0:33:03.200 --> 0:33:05.520
<v Speaker 10>can raise financing. So there is by the way, I

0:33:05.600 --> 0:33:07.760
<v Speaker 10>just perverse angle to all of this that there's obviously

0:33:07.800 --> 0:33:10.240
<v Speaker 10>a nock to US influence. There could be a direct

0:33:10.320 --> 0:33:13.160
<v Speaker 10>hit US funding costs by extension and the economic impact

0:33:13.240 --> 0:33:16.000
<v Speaker 10>of that. But you know, perversely, I think some of

0:33:16.000 --> 0:33:18.040
<v Speaker 10>those emerging economies around the world you can't boor in

0:33:18.080 --> 0:33:21.920
<v Speaker 10>their own currency and need investors to trade dollars with them.

0:33:21.920 --> 0:33:23.080
<v Speaker 10>They would also get a knock from this.

0:33:23.400 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 9>But if you want to know what the real near

0:33:26.160 --> 0:33:28.560
<v Speaker 9>term implications would be, you look at what happened in

0:33:28.600 --> 0:33:33.160
<v Speaker 9>the UK when Teresa May proposed a budget that was unfounded, unfunded.

0:33:33.280 --> 0:33:34.200
<v Speaker 3>How that right for you?

0:33:34.960 --> 0:33:37.880
<v Speaker 9>That is the kind of freak out moment that we

0:33:38.080 --> 0:33:40.640
<v Speaker 9>risk having if people do not want to buy, you know,

0:33:40.680 --> 0:33:44.040
<v Speaker 9>if they lose some of their appetite for US treasures

0:33:44.240 --> 0:33:44.520
<v Speaker 9>jump in.

0:33:44.560 --> 0:33:46.800
<v Speaker 8>Interest and you know, as long as you're talking about

0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:48.880
<v Speaker 8>the UK, one of the things I was telling Christina

0:33:49.040 --> 0:33:52.280
<v Speaker 8>was like, like, let's not forget like Brexit shows what

0:33:52.360 --> 0:33:54.040
<v Speaker 8>a real self inflicted wound.

0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:54.280
<v Speaker 1>Can look like.

0:33:54.320 --> 0:33:57.680
<v Speaker 8>And the US keep doing this like, you know, can

0:33:57.760 --> 0:34:02.160
<v Speaker 8>show you what what the worst case scenario yanks.

0:34:03.120 --> 0:34:05.880
<v Speaker 2>All right, guys, that is a wrap, so appreciate it. It

0:34:05.960 --> 0:34:07.840
<v Speaker 2>is the cover story of the new issue of Bloomberg

0:34:07.880 --> 0:34:10.840
<v Speaker 2>Business Week. As we said, add on newsstands, on the

0:34:10.880 --> 0:34:13.279
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg terminal at Bloomberg dot com, slash business Week. Our

0:34:13.320 --> 0:34:15.920
<v Speaker 2>thanks to end a current global economy reporter at Bloomberg

0:34:16.000 --> 0:34:19.040
<v Speaker 2>News in our DC bureau, and Christina Limblack, global economics

0:34:19.120 --> 0:34:21.880
<v Speaker 2>editor at Bloomberg BusinessWeek here in studio along with Jill Weber,

0:34:22.080 --> 0:34:24.880
<v Speaker 2>the editor of Bloomberg Business Week, here in our interactive

0:34:24.880 --> 0:34:29.880
<v Speaker 2>broker studio Umbromarco.

0:34:30.400 --> 0:34:30.880
<v Speaker 8>Journal.

0:34:31.920 --> 0:34:32.879
<v Speaker 7>How about you let me drive?

0:34:33.400 --> 0:34:35.120
<v Speaker 10>No, no, no, no, who's going to run?

0:34:36.239 --> 0:34:36.600
<v Speaker 6>Honey?

0:34:36.719 --> 0:34:38.640
<v Speaker 1>Please, I'll do the driving. Gravels.

0:34:39.040 --> 0:34:41.720
<v Speaker 7>Let's mate, I want to try it.

0:34:42.680 --> 0:34:44.560
<v Speaker 10>It's good question time.

0:34:47.360 --> 0:34:50.160
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe dot com Com.

0:34:50.360 --> 0:34:52.160
<v Speaker 6>I think we'll buy around Hilda.

0:34:51.960 --> 0:34:53.760
<v Speaker 1>Don on Bloomberg Radio.

0:34:53.920 --> 0:34:56.200
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, we've got just under eighteen minutes left

0:34:56.239 --> 0:34:57.920
<v Speaker 2>in today's trading session.

0:34:58.160 --> 0:35:01.560
<v Speaker 3>Time for the drive to the cloone on this Thursday.

0:35:01.600 --> 0:35:03.560
<v Speaker 2>We've got equities up pretty much at their best levels

0:35:03.600 --> 0:35:06.640
<v Speaker 2>of the session. We've seen yields also move up. I'm

0:35:06.640 --> 0:35:08.279
<v Speaker 2>taking a look at a two year note with a

0:35:08.360 --> 0:35:10.480
<v Speaker 2>yield of four point twenty five, just rolling over, but

0:35:10.560 --> 0:35:12.239
<v Speaker 2>nonetheless certainly bump up.

0:35:12.320 --> 0:35:12.560
<v Speaker 10>There.

0:35:13.239 --> 0:35:15.880
<v Speaker 3>Let's get to it, though, and check in with Jeff Schwaber.

0:35:15.920 --> 0:35:19.640
<v Speaker 2>He's CEEO at the institutional all Asset Management Manager excuse me,

0:35:19.920 --> 0:35:22.560
<v Speaker 2>Blue Raw Capital Markets. He joins us on Zoom from

0:35:22.600 --> 0:35:25.520
<v Speaker 2>Newport Beach, California. Hey, Jeff, good to have you here

0:35:25.760 --> 0:35:26.680
<v Speaker 2>on Bloomberg.

0:35:26.840 --> 0:35:27.320
<v Speaker 3>How are you.

0:35:28.600 --> 0:35:30.759
<v Speaker 11>I'm doing great, good to see. It's an up day

0:35:30.760 --> 0:35:32.520
<v Speaker 11>and real pleasure to be here. Thank you for having me.

0:35:32.640 --> 0:35:35.960
<v Speaker 2>It does feel like there's some enthusiasm, maybe some calming down,

0:35:36.280 --> 0:35:38.160
<v Speaker 2>but it's kind of been wacky when if you think

0:35:38.200 --> 0:35:40.840
<v Speaker 2>about where their markets are thinking rates are going to go,

0:35:41.000 --> 0:35:42.560
<v Speaker 2>it just kind of changes what it feels like from

0:35:42.600 --> 0:35:44.880
<v Speaker 2>day to day, week to week. Having said that, you

0:35:44.960 --> 0:35:47.040
<v Speaker 2>play a lot in the real estate space, and I'm

0:35:47.120 --> 0:35:49.920
<v Speaker 2>curious about what you are seeing specifically in terms of

0:35:50.000 --> 0:35:51.959
<v Speaker 2>opportunities or signs of caution.

0:35:53.600 --> 0:35:56.359
<v Speaker 11>Yeah. Sure, well, I'll tell you. It's been a tale

0:35:56.360 --> 0:35:57.040
<v Speaker 11>of two cities.

0:35:57.239 --> 0:36:00.080
<v Speaker 12>We had a little bit of a draw down and

0:36:00.760 --> 0:36:03.439
<v Speaker 12>necessary correction in real estate as the Fed went into

0:36:03.560 --> 0:36:07.640
<v Speaker 12>a really aggressive hawkish cycle, but it was really expected.

0:36:07.640 --> 0:36:11.080
<v Speaker 12>If you look at institutional real estate, the average cap

0:36:11.200 --> 0:36:14.239
<v Speaker 12>rate is probably around four percent and the riskless rate ten.

0:36:14.280 --> 0:36:16.359
<v Speaker 12>Your treasuries we're covering at one or two for years

0:36:16.400 --> 0:36:19.160
<v Speaker 12>and years, and then after all the hikes, riskless rate

0:36:19.239 --> 0:36:21.480
<v Speaker 12>went up to four percent. So you almost had to

0:36:21.560 --> 0:36:24.840
<v Speaker 12>have a decompression to create a necessary return premium for

0:36:24.960 --> 0:36:27.120
<v Speaker 12>something that has greater risks than something backed by the

0:36:27.640 --> 0:36:30.280
<v Speaker 12>full faith and credit of the federal government. So that's occurred,

0:36:30.760 --> 0:36:33.240
<v Speaker 12>and we're really setting up for a nice little bullish

0:36:33.280 --> 0:36:33.920
<v Speaker 12>scenario here.

0:36:34.000 --> 0:36:37.480
<v Speaker 2>We believe, well, as you know better than most real estate,

0:36:37.600 --> 0:36:39.880
<v Speaker 2>it's not all the same bag, if you will. I mean,

0:36:39.920 --> 0:36:42.160
<v Speaker 2>there's residential, there's office. You know, the worries on the

0:36:42.239 --> 0:36:45.239
<v Speaker 2>office space. We're thinking a lot about real estate. I

0:36:45.280 --> 0:36:47.960
<v Speaker 2>think about Sam Zell, what a player in terms of that,

0:36:48.160 --> 0:36:50.439
<v Speaker 2>and of course his passing today. But we've been talking

0:36:50.480 --> 0:36:54.080
<v Speaker 2>a lot about real estate generally when you break it

0:36:54.160 --> 0:37:00.279
<v Speaker 2>down logistics, warehousing, multi apartment dwellings, if you will, single

0:37:00.320 --> 0:37:02.319
<v Speaker 2>family homes. I mean, where is it that you guys

0:37:02.360 --> 0:37:04.960
<v Speaker 2>are seeing some of the opportunities. I mean, if I

0:37:05.000 --> 0:37:07.319
<v Speaker 2>look at your blue rock total income and real estate

0:37:07.400 --> 0:37:09.960
<v Speaker 2>fun you guys have been beating most of your peers

0:37:10.560 --> 0:37:13.960
<v Speaker 2>on an average basis annually over the last five years.

0:37:14.000 --> 0:37:17.719
<v Speaker 2>So I'm curious where you are putting new money to work.

0:37:17.800 --> 0:37:18.960
<v Speaker 2>Where are you holding back on?

0:37:20.000 --> 0:37:22.080
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, no, that's the smartest question you could ask.

0:37:22.520 --> 0:37:24.920
<v Speaker 12>You're right, the devil's always in the details, and you

0:37:24.960 --> 0:37:27.399
<v Speaker 12>can't throw a blanket over something as diversus real estate

0:37:27.440 --> 0:37:31.640
<v Speaker 12>and make generalizations. We are extremely underweight office and retail,

0:37:31.719 --> 0:37:36.600
<v Speaker 12>and our highest conviction sectors are the industrial sector, multifamily

0:37:36.719 --> 0:37:38.800
<v Speaker 12>and single family rentals, as well as some debt in

0:37:38.880 --> 0:37:42.279
<v Speaker 12>that space with Freddie Mack et cetera, and also some

0:37:42.400 --> 0:37:47.319
<v Speaker 12>specialty sectors like life sciences and data storage. With regard

0:37:47.400 --> 0:37:50.279
<v Speaker 12>to industrial, for example, it's been probably the hottest sector

0:37:50.360 --> 0:37:52.440
<v Speaker 12>for the past five or ten years, and we think

0:37:52.480 --> 0:37:54.040
<v Speaker 12>it will be for the next five or ten and

0:37:54.120 --> 0:37:58.480
<v Speaker 12>it's really fueled by the parabolic growth in e commerce.

0:37:58.960 --> 0:38:02.239
<v Speaker 12>We probably need a billion or two additional square feed

0:38:02.280 --> 0:38:04.120
<v Speaker 12>in the next four or five years of industrial real

0:38:04.200 --> 0:38:05.920
<v Speaker 12>estate to satisfy the demand.

0:38:06.000 --> 0:38:07.200
<v Speaker 11>And frankly, you can't build it.

0:38:07.320 --> 0:38:09.799
<v Speaker 12>You can't build it fast enough, and rental bumps are

0:38:10.320 --> 0:38:13.200
<v Speaker 12>probably five x the historic norm of two or three

0:38:13.239 --> 0:38:14.000
<v Speaker 12>percent right now.

0:38:14.400 --> 0:38:15.239
<v Speaker 3>I am curious too.

0:38:15.360 --> 0:38:18.400
<v Speaker 2>You know this all that age, you know, location, location, location,

0:38:18.560 --> 0:38:21.439
<v Speaker 2>so on something like industrial, and we're seeing it pop

0:38:21.560 --> 0:38:24.879
<v Speaker 2>up around the country. But is there an geographical play

0:38:24.960 --> 0:38:28.080
<v Speaker 2>or I'm assuming when they're building industrial they're going to

0:38:28.239 --> 0:38:31.040
<v Speaker 2>put it in places that make sense in terms of

0:38:31.120 --> 0:38:34.480
<v Speaker 2>serving the e commerce market, so that maybe location isn't such.

0:38:34.320 --> 0:38:34.799
<v Speaker 3>A big thing.

0:38:35.680 --> 0:38:38.480
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, No, you hit the hit the former certainly.

0:38:38.640 --> 0:38:41.480
<v Speaker 12>So in real estate, there's this there's this whole expression

0:38:41.600 --> 0:38:44.200
<v Speaker 12>that and they refer to it as the smile markets,

0:38:44.239 --> 0:38:46.040
<v Speaker 12>and so picture a map of the United States and

0:38:46.120 --> 0:38:49.320
<v Speaker 12>draw smiles. So you go from Washington State, you know,

0:38:50.040 --> 0:38:53.319
<v Speaker 12>down the West coast and then across the Sun Belt

0:38:53.360 --> 0:38:56.640
<v Speaker 12>and then up the Eastern seaboard, and e commerce and

0:38:56.760 --> 0:39:00.480
<v Speaker 12>multi family are really driven by demographic in migration and

0:39:00.600 --> 0:39:03.759
<v Speaker 12>that is by far excelling most in the Sunmelt, you know,

0:39:03.880 --> 0:39:09.960
<v Speaker 12>probably from the Phoenix area over to Florida, Texas, Florida,

0:39:10.640 --> 0:39:13.720
<v Speaker 12>up the Eastern seaboard to maybe the Carolinas, et cetera.

0:39:13.920 --> 0:39:18.280
<v Speaker 12>And it's really almost a two to three x growth

0:39:18.440 --> 0:39:20.839
<v Speaker 12>curve and people who have focused there, like Blue Rock,

0:39:20.920 --> 0:39:22.759
<v Speaker 12>have have significantly outperformed.

0:39:22.960 --> 0:39:24.880
<v Speaker 2>What about in terms of the raid environment, how do

0:39:25.040 --> 0:39:28.200
<v Speaker 2>you think about that specifically and the impact you know,

0:39:28.280 --> 0:39:31.440
<v Speaker 2>we certainly have seen it initially really kind of drag

0:39:31.600 --> 0:39:34.920
<v Speaker 2>down the residential space, certainly the single family homes.

0:39:35.120 --> 0:39:37.000
<v Speaker 3>It feels like we're kind of working our way through it,

0:39:37.080 --> 0:39:39.760
<v Speaker 3>if you will. But what about for you all overall?

0:39:40.800 --> 0:39:44.200
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, it's a couple of things to consider. The first

0:39:44.320 --> 0:39:48.000
<v Speaker 12>is if you're utilizing leverage. We do, but rather conservatively

0:39:48.480 --> 0:39:51.239
<v Speaker 12>we're probably twenty nine percent levern in our institutional fund

0:39:51.320 --> 0:39:54.200
<v Speaker 12>that is exposed to like three hundred and ninety billion

0:39:54.239 --> 0:39:56.480
<v Speaker 12>of real estate. It's the largest real estate and interval

0:39:56.520 --> 0:40:01.200
<v Speaker 12>fund out there. But so obviously the the lower your leverage,

0:40:01.239 --> 0:40:03.640
<v Speaker 12>the higher you're spread, and the more positive leverage you

0:40:03.680 --> 0:40:06.719
<v Speaker 12>can bring to the table. So you're not juicing your

0:40:06.800 --> 0:40:09.600
<v Speaker 12>yields significantly right now when you look at the spreads

0:40:09.600 --> 0:40:14.800
<v Speaker 12>between debt and cap rates, and as net operating income

0:40:14.840 --> 0:40:18.080
<v Speaker 12>increases occur and that spread increases, you'll see more dynamic

0:40:19.560 --> 0:40:23.320
<v Speaker 12>features in that regard. But with regard to a rising

0:40:23.440 --> 0:40:26.319
<v Speaker 12>rate environment, if you go back to nineteen seventy eight,

0:40:26.360 --> 0:40:29.839
<v Speaker 12>for example, when the private Institutional index was incepted, we've

0:40:29.960 --> 0:40:33.799
<v Speaker 12>had nine rising rate and inflationary periods, and in nine

0:40:33.880 --> 0:40:36.759
<v Speaker 12>of nine in the following three to five years, because

0:40:36.800 --> 0:40:40.000
<v Speaker 12>real estate is the hedge against inflation, classically, you've seen

0:40:40.120 --> 0:40:42.640
<v Speaker 12>outperformance from the average returns of nine and a half

0:40:42.719 --> 0:40:45.880
<v Speaker 12>or ten percent by somewhere between twenty and fifty percent up.

0:40:46.200 --> 0:40:49.320
<v Speaker 12>You generally get twelve to fourteen percent coming out of

0:40:49.400 --> 0:40:52.279
<v Speaker 12>that rising rate cycle after the cap rate decompression. So

0:40:52.360 --> 0:40:55.160
<v Speaker 12>we're hunkered down in positioning for what we believe is

0:40:55.200 --> 0:40:57.080
<v Speaker 12>going to be a significant leg up over the next

0:40:57.120 --> 0:40:57.600
<v Speaker 12>few years.

0:40:57.840 --> 0:41:03.200
<v Speaker 2>You said, you're extremely underweight office, extremely underweight retail office.

0:41:03.880 --> 0:41:05.880
<v Speaker 2>I recently was out there on the West coast at

0:41:06.000 --> 0:41:09.680
<v Speaker 2>Milkin and moderated a panel that was specifically on real estate,

0:41:09.719 --> 0:41:12.040
<v Speaker 2>and we talked a lot about office. The theme that

0:41:12.160 --> 0:41:14.080
<v Speaker 2>seemed to come away from it was that if you

0:41:14.160 --> 0:41:16.719
<v Speaker 2>are in top tier properties, you're going to be fine

0:41:16.760 --> 0:41:20.000
<v Speaker 2>in office, but if you're in you know, lower tier

0:41:21.280 --> 0:41:25.400
<v Speaker 2>locations geographically or just lower types of properties, it's going

0:41:25.440 --> 0:41:27.239
<v Speaker 2>to be tougher for you. How are you seeing the

0:41:27.280 --> 0:41:29.160
<v Speaker 2>office play and is there at some point though an

0:41:29.320 --> 0:41:32.160
<v Speaker 2>entry point for you? And just got about forty five seconds.

0:41:32.600 --> 0:41:34.879
<v Speaker 11>Yes, sir, I think you hit it again.

0:41:35.400 --> 0:41:38.600
<v Speaker 12>Office comes in so many forms of CBD, central business district,

0:41:38.960 --> 0:41:42.760
<v Speaker 12>multi tenant office, downtown, skyline, suburbia, et cetera.

0:41:43.360 --> 0:41:44.120
<v Speaker 2>It is, it is.

0:41:44.480 --> 0:41:46.959
<v Speaker 12>It's like a stock pickers market, it's a building pickers market.

0:41:47.040 --> 0:41:49.160
<v Speaker 12>You have to be, like you said, in the in

0:41:49.320 --> 0:41:53.960
<v Speaker 12>the high gateway msas and in higher occupancy areas. But

0:41:54.760 --> 0:41:57.400
<v Speaker 12>we do believe anytime anybody said office is going to

0:41:57.400 --> 0:41:58.399
<v Speaker 12>be is going to be dead.

0:41:58.440 --> 0:41:59.640
<v Speaker 11>It's been misproven.

0:41:59.760 --> 0:42:03.279
<v Speaker 12>So there will be entries, but we're staying our hand

0:42:03.320 --> 0:42:04.160
<v Speaker 12>as we see right now.

0:42:04.239 --> 0:42:06.600
<v Speaker 2>All right, well, this was fun. Come back soon, love

0:42:06.680 --> 0:42:10.160
<v Speaker 2>to continue the conversation. Joining us Jeff Schwaber, you see

0:42:10.160 --> 0:42:13.200
<v Speaker 2>you at the institutional all asset manager, blue Rock Capital Markets.

0:42:13.280 --> 0:42:17.120
<v Speaker 2>Joining us from the West Coast on Zoom from Newport Beach, California.

0:42:18.000 --> 0:42:21.200
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast of a Little

0:42:21.239 --> 0:42:24.839
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0:42:25.280 --> 0:42:28.800
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0:42:28.960 --> 0:42:32.279
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0:42:32.320 --> 0:42:35.279
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