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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: So it's a very filled docket here in Europe dealing

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Speaker 2: with a number of different issues, and of course I

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Speaker 2: think front and center probably where you're going to get

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Speaker 2: is this question of trade. Though this is technically at

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Speaker 2: the EU level sort of competence, this is the inevitable

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Speaker 2: conversation really around the world.

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Speaker 1: So very pleased to be.

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Speaker 2: Now joined by the Greek Finance minister kiryak U Sapierra Kakiz,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us today here in Brussels.

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Speaker 2: So listen, we just had the press conference from Geneva,

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Speaker 2: from the Swiss, we have this sort of a reprieve

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Speaker 2: on the trade deal with the United States and China.

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Speaker 2: Sitting here in Brussels, sitting in Athens, what does that

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Speaker 2: tell you about what the United States is trying to

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Speaker 2: achieve and do you think that puts us closer towards

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Speaker 2: some kind of resolution with the United States.

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Speaker 3: First of all, is great to be with you. I

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Speaker 3: think that the news are positive. It's a positive development

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Speaker 3: the one that we're seeing. Obviously, we will have to

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Speaker 3: study the details of any agreement, as we plan to

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Speaker 3: do in the Yuru Group in the Ego fen midtings

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Speaker 3: with my colleagues at the YU Consul. But overall, our

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Speaker 3: position as Greece, you know, we're a members stated of

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Speaker 3: the European Union that believes in free trade. In a

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Speaker 3: union that believes in free trade, we hope to lower

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Speaker 3: the temperature in the room, and any such deal and

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Speaker 3: any such development it's already reflected in the markets, is

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Speaker 3: quite positive.

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Speaker 2: And in terms of kind of what, because we also

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Speaker 2: heard from Scott Best saying that the EU has fallen

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Speaker 2: further back in the line. In that press conference he

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Speaker 2: says that the UK jump to the front, the Swiss

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Speaker 2: are doing well. What is your sense of how close

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Speaker 2: the Europeans are to actually reaching a deal with the

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Speaker 2: United States. Their task is made more difficult, obviously by

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Speaker 2: the fact that there are twenty seven member states. Do

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Speaker 2: you think that that puts US at a disadvantages here

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Speaker 2: in Europe in terms of negotiating an actual outcome.

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Speaker 3: I have the chance to meet with Scott Besent in

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Speaker 3: Washington in the context of the IMF Spring meetings, and

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Speaker 3: my message to my American colleague was the fact that

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Speaker 3: we hope to move quite fast, quite swiftly, visibly, achieving

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Speaker 3: a very positive trade deal. The position of my Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister of Kiakos misch attach Is was ideally we should

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Speaker 3: have a zero to zero tipic relationship with the United States.

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Speaker 3: As I said, we hope to lower the temperature in

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Speaker 3: the room. I think it's visible. We are at twenty

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Speaker 3: seven members of state union, as you suggested, but I

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Speaker 3: think we can move quite fast.

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Speaker 2: And given what we saw from the UK, you still

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Speaker 2: have those ten percent tariff barriers there. It does I

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Speaker 2: give you an idea of kind of what you can

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Speaker 2: hope for from a deal with the United States, because

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Speaker 2: zero zero seems fairly unlikely at the stage.

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Speaker 3: Well, look, we're going to shoot for the best. We're

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Speaker 3: having to achieve the best. Generally speaking, we should try

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Speaker 3: to remove trade barriers. But if you look at the

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Speaker 3: EU budget, by the way, the section of the EU budget,

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Speaker 3: I think around thirteen point seven percent of the EU

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Speaker 3: budget already comes from tariffs as we speak, it's part

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Speaker 3: of the overall EU trade architecture. But hopefully you know

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Speaker 3: ideologically what we believe as Europeans should be to eliminate

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Speaker 3: those trade barriers. Plus we should be trying to remove

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Speaker 3: the internal barriers that we already have within the European Union,

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Speaker 3: the Drag Report, the Letter Report, and this is part

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Speaker 3: of an overall discussion of an overall new architecture that

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Speaker 3: we should aim to strive for.

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Speaker 2: And one of the features of the trade war has

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Speaker 2: also been extremely heightened market volatility that we've seen throughout

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Speaker 2: the world. I remember a time that when you had

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Speaker 2: that market volatility, you had German and Greek deals moving

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Speaker 2: in the opposite directions.

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Speaker 1: They have been moving in lockstep.

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Speaker 2: We've seen basically you know that story be sort of

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Speaker 2: have and ask within Europe, what do you think the

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Speaker 2: opportunity is from the sort of US policy in terms

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Speaker 2: of attracting capital here into Europe, attracting talent. How does

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Speaker 2: your capitalize on kind of some of the uncertainty we've

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Speaker 2: seen out of the United st.

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Speaker 3: It's only that you mentioned that volatility because in the

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Speaker 3: past my country used to play a role in this discussion.

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Speaker 3: We created that volatility and now we're stability story fifteen

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Speaker 3: years later, after the last decade plus. To add to

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Speaker 3: your point, you know, we discussed startiffs. Uncertainty is a

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Speaker 3: much bigger problem. So the positive premium of those discussions

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Speaker 3: of those radios that we're seeing on the ground right

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Speaker 3: now on behalf of the United States with China, with

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Speaker 3: the United Kingdom with US as a next step is

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Speaker 3: to remove that uncertainty from the table in order to

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Speaker 3: have you know, positive positive growth dividend. In this debate,

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Speaker 3: is it an opportunity for Europe, Yes, we should. We

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Speaker 3: should always view crisis as opportunities. If you look at

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Speaker 3: European history, by the way, in every move of European integration,

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Speaker 3: you had the crisis that catalyzed that integration, which we

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Speaker 3: then metabolized as a positive institutional reform. We should be

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Speaker 3: able to do the same. The banking Union, the savings

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Speaker 3: in the Investment Union, the Capital Markets Union, all those

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Speaker 3: things that we have been discussing, as you very well know,

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Speaker 3: for quite some time. It's a topic again of discussion,

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Speaker 3: not the Eurogroup meetings, that the Eco fin meetings. It's

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Speaker 3: an opportunity and we should grasp it.

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Speaker 2: And when you think about that instegration kind of concretely,

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Speaker 2: because again, as you know, we've been talking about the

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Speaker 2: Capital Markets Union for a decade at least, and now

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Speaker 2: we have some renewed urgency. But I'd like to get

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Speaker 2: a sort of an idea for you, when do you

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Speaker 2: think we can make meaningful progress on this and where

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Speaker 2: do you sort of stand?

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Speaker 1: Where do you think the sort of hurdles are the.

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Speaker 3: Hurdles used to that we have to negotiate a full

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Speaker 3: spectrum of things, of details of you know, member state

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Speaker 3: sensitivities in all of those discussions. But again, a crisis

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Speaker 3: can help as a catalyst visably moving those sensitivities, visably

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Speaker 3: moving those hurdles. I think that there's a real opportunity

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Speaker 3: on the table and we plan to be very constructive

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Speaker 3: with regardless to achieving a very positive result.

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Speaker 2: And I also want to get to your take on

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Speaker 2: some of the domestic issues going on with INCREASE. You

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Speaker 2: are now reschedule, you're paying ahead of skeeds a lot

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Speaker 2: of your first bailout debt.

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Speaker 1: Is that something that we can expect more of?

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Speaker 2: When do you think the first bailout can be completely

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Speaker 2: behind you or expecting that to come ahead of time.

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Speaker 3: Which should be completely behind us by twenty thirty one.

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Speaker 3: This is ten years ahead of schedule, as we have

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Speaker 3: been discussing both domestically and internationally, for us, for my generation,

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Speaker 3: for my government, fiscal prudence is not a policy choice.

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Speaker 3: Fiscal prudence is a regime after having a very difficult decade.

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Speaker 3: A last decade we lost twenty four points of GDP.

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Speaker 3: Right now we're growing ahead much higher than the EU

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Speaker 3: average two point three percent growth. We had a headline surplus.

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Speaker 3: Six countries in the EU had the headline surplus. We

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Speaker 3: were one of the six, and we plan to continue

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Speaker 3: de escalating our debt. We don't plan to pass the

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Speaker 3: bill to the next generation as all the previous generations

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Speaker 3: in Greece did, and in this context, we hope to

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Speaker 3: create positive tailwinds even if we see negative headwinds in

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Speaker 3: the international economy.

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Speaker 2: And part of the contributor to that surplus that you

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Speaker 2: had had a surprise surplus that you had last year

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Speaker 2: ahead of that is quite ahead of what anybody had anticipated,

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Speaker 2: was a drive to basically deal with tax evasions to

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Speaker 2: collect taxes again. Is this something that we can expect

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Speaker 2: more of going forward to and what is it going

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Speaker 2: to mean budgetarily? Do you expect more surpluses in the

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Speaker 2: future and how big do you have an idea how

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Speaker 2: big that shadow economy is and how much revenue could

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Speaker 2: be there for you.

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Speaker 3: The first point would be that the expectation for the

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Speaker 3: next primary budget surplus for next year. For this year

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Speaker 3: is three point two percent, So overall, we hope to

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Speaker 3: achieve primary budget surpluses in all future scenarios. Second, if

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Speaker 3: you look at studies that were conducted on behalf of

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Speaker 3: the IMF in the previous years, the shadow economy was

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Speaker 3: calculated to being the ballpark figure of thirty percent. In

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Speaker 3: the past, it was even forty percent. In the last

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Speaker 3: IMF study that calculated the shadow economy increase, the number

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Speaker 3: was fifteen percent, and right now it's even lower. We

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Speaker 3: plan to lower it further using digital technologies to capture

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Speaker 3: tax evation. We managed to do that and achieve the

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Speaker 3: budget surplus that you mentioned before. We had a vaight gap.

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Speaker 3: We have a value added tax Increece. Half of that

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Speaker 3: eighty gap is already captured by our smartly shaped policies.

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Speaker 3: We hope to do more. Overall, I would say digitization

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Speaker 3: is a success story for Greece. If you look at

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Speaker 3: our government platform gap dot gr it has more than

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Speaker 3: two thousand services offered digitally.

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Speaker 2: And I've talked to a lot of finance ministers of

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Speaker 2: the last couple of months, and as you can imagine,

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Speaker 2: the focus has been on trade and I just want

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Speaker 2: to return to that just for a moment. Do you

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Speaker 2: have an idea Do you have your arms around how

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Speaker 2: damaging this could be to the trade war is to

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Speaker 2: the Greek economy? Or is it still too early to

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Speaker 2: say because every finance minister I spoke to you the

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Speaker 2: last few months, so that basically it's incalculable. Now, do

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Speaker 2: you have an idea of what the damage to the

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Speaker 2: Greek economy amount?

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Speaker 3: I adhere to the position that is extremely difficult to

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Speaker 3: calculate the effects. The primary level effects in Greece, if

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Speaker 3: you look at them, they are limited. We have less

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Speaker 3: than five percent of our exports. Four point eight percent

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Speaker 3: of our exports go to the United States. It's less

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Speaker 3: than one percent of our intitute tree flow for trade,

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Speaker 3: but that's a huge slow for maritime nation, it's a

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Speaker 3: huge flow for trade. We're primarily worried about the second

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Speaker 3: order effects. What would happen, for instance, if the American

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Speaker 3: economy moves into a sessionary or even to a seculationary.

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Speaker 3: What happens if you have a recession in certain European

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Speaker 3: markets which direly interact with directly interact with the Greek economy.

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Speaker 3: All of those things worry. Yes, this is why we

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Speaker 3: believe that we should remove as much as we can

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Speaker 3: heat from the room.

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Speaker 2: In one of the topics that you'll be discussing today

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Speaker 2: will be now doubt the defense plans within Europe in

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Speaker 2: terms of dealing and Greece is one of these sort

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Speaker 2: of highest spending nations in terms of GDP in the

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Speaker 2: NATO commitment above three percent. You know, the Trump administration

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Speaker 2: we'd like to see five percent. Do you think that

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Speaker 2: we need to get to a world where we're closer

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Speaker 2: to five percent rather than two percent? And is there

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Speaker 2: an avenue to get there without European joint debt? And

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Speaker 2: where do you sort of appraise the debate on the

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Speaker 2: question of joint debt for defense in Europe.

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Speaker 3: Well, I would say first of all that for US,

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Speaker 3: defense spending was not a policy choice, per seve. For US,

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Speaker 3: it was geographic destiny. It was one of the things

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Speaker 3: that we had to focus on an invest on many

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Speaker 3: generations before, and we're hoping to do it better in

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Speaker 3: the future with more spillover effects in the economy. There

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Speaker 3: were certain Bloomberg reports in the past which underlined that

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Speaker 3: Greece was not spending the defense amounts in the maximum

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Speaker 3: spill over effects capability that it could. We hope to

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Speaker 3: do more of this for US that would be a

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Speaker 3: growth dividend. But overall, the treatment of defense spending as

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Speaker 3: it currently takes place in the context of the EU

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Speaker 3: Council I think is positive. We should have some exemptions

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Speaker 3: visa visa euphysical rules of the European Union and the

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Speaker 3: current geopolitical environment mandates those exemptions. And you know, we

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Speaker 3: paid our fair share even before more new members. The

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Speaker 3: should be able to do that. Germany is now doing that.

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Speaker 3: I think that we should have those degrees of flexibility

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Speaker 3: with regardless to achieving this.

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Speaker 2: And just a sort of final question on treg this

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Speaker 2: is another question that I think is a very big one,

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Speaker 2: a difficult one to answer. When we look at the

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Speaker 2: trade barriers that were erected between China and the United States,

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Speaker 2: the big concern is that all of that over capacity

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Speaker 2: flows to rich markets. There really is only one that

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Speaker 2: rivals the United States, that is the European Union. How

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Speaker 2: do you treat some of that oversupply coming from China

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Speaker 2: potentially coming into the European market and what we're seeing

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Speaker 2: from the United States rewriting this trade order what have

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Speaker 2: we learned about how trade deals should be structured and

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Speaker 2: potentially differently in the future to protect you know, soft industry.

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Speaker 3: We don't yet know. There's lots of certainty. There's lots

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Speaker 3: of uncertainty on the table right now in all of

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Speaker 3: those discussions. We don't yet know if we're going to

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Speaker 3: be in a zero, in a limited or in a

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Speaker 3: high taiff environment. You know, the world that we're going

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Speaker 3: to be at in ninety days, one hundred days from

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Speaker 3: now will directly affect the answer to your question. But

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Speaker 3: what we do know is that tariffs are going to

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Speaker 3: direly affect supply chain. So if we look at what

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Speaker 3: happened in the past, take the nineteen thirty so it

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Speaker 3: was a smooth holy tariff Act in the United States.

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Speaker 3: This had a very adverse effect for the global economy.

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Speaker 3: We should do our best with regards to training to

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Speaker 3: avoid that at all costs, and this is what we

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Speaker 3: plan to do at the Gurda Group, and that the

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Speaker 3: ecoferratings well.

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Speaker 2: Kyriakos Pierracakis, I look forward to speaking to you in

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Speaker 2: ninety days and we have certainty on the world that

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Speaker 2: we're living in