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Speaker 3: Wow all Right, Welcome In Episode one nineteen our divisional
Speaker 3: weekend gambling show on What's Right with Nick Right. We
Speaker 3: mentioned this on Thursday's show. I'm gonna mention it again here.
Speaker 3: We had a goal of one hundred thousand YouTube subscribers
Speaker 3: before the end of the year. We fell short. We
Speaker 3: are now almost at ninety four thousand subscribers. If we
Speaker 3: could get to one hundred thousand before the super Bowl,
Speaker 3: it's an ambitious goal. We only have a few weeks.
Speaker 3: We'd have to add a couple thousand a week. But
Speaker 3: if you enjoy this show, if you vibe with this
Speaker 3: show and you're not already subscribing, please do so. We
Speaker 3: get a sweet plaque. And Demons's getting ready to move
Speaker 3: to Los Angeles and I would really like to send
Speaker 3: the plaque with him. There's all to a financial incentive.
Speaker 3: Demonse's got this Twitch stream he's trying to build up.
Speaker 3: I think it'd be a pretty cool background thing now,
Speaker 3: one hundred thousand YouTube subscriber thing in the background there.
Speaker 3: So if you are not already subscribing, and you would,
Speaker 3: that would be great. The other thing you could do
Speaker 3: if you are What's Right with Nick Wright and Demonse
Speaker 3: super fan, if such a thing exists, if you wanted
Speaker 3: to tweet out the link to our YouTube stream and
Speaker 3: tell your folks to subscribe, we'd greatly appreciate it. Again,
Speaker 3: we're about sixty five hundred short of one hundred thousand
Speaker 3: goal and once I get to one hundred thousand, by
Speaker 3: the way, I'm just I'm done with the show. I'm kidding.
Speaker 3: I will keep the show going, but I would like
Speaker 3: to get to it. Okay, this is I don't know
Speaker 3: if you know this, Demanse. This is my favorite sports
Speaker 3: weekend of the year, the second round of the divisional
Speaker 3: round of the playoffs, because we have four games. No.
Speaker 3: Traditionally wild Card weekend was also four games, but and
Speaker 3: then they expanded it to when they added the seventh
Speaker 3: playoff teams. But you have four games. And the reason
Speaker 3: I like this more than Conference Championship weekend is Conference
Speaker 3: championship weekend. Yes, you usually get the best teams, but
Speaker 3: historically one of those games is usually a blowout. There's
Speaker 3: only two games all day Saturday, you're just anticipating Sunday.
Speaker 3: This is if we were to have said, at various
Speaker 3: points throughout the season, who are the best teams in football?
Speaker 3: Of the eight teams remaining, six of them are left
Speaker 3: in one order or another. Almost all year long, the
Speaker 3: six best teams in football were Kansas City, Philly, Cincinnati, Buffalo,
Speaker 3: San Francisco, and Dallas. None of them got upset this weekend.
Speaker 3: A few of them almost did, but none of them
Speaker 3: got upset. You then have the Jags, who have been
Speaker 3: one of the hottest teams the second half of the year,
Speaker 3: and then the Giants, who were one of the hottest
Speaker 3: teams at the beginning of the year with that six
Speaker 3: and one start that they had. So it's a great weekend.
Speaker 3: It's my favorite weekend of football. First, before we get
Speaker 3: to our picks for this weekend, we will recap last weekend.
Speaker 3: It started amazingly. We started three and zero. We finished
Speaker 3: four and two, which is absolutely fine. It keeps us
Speaker 3: It's another profitable weekend. It means our last two weeks
Speaker 3: of giving out picks on this show, because we went
Speaker 3: eleven and three is fifteen and five. Wait, yeah, fifteen
Speaker 3: and five, so seventy five percent against the spread the
Speaker 3: last two weeks on this show. We'll go through each game.
Speaker 3: San Francisco minus nine and a half against Seattle.
Speaker 4: Oh.
Speaker 3: The other thing that we should mention is week is
Speaker 3: that we also on last week's show, we gave out
Speaker 3: a tea a Saturday teaser that it Niners Jags. We
Speaker 3: gave out and on the offer, the eleven to one
Speaker 3: offer was the Jags money line lawrence over two hundred
Speaker 3: and forty eight passing yards and the Niners minus sixteen
Speaker 3: and a half. That almost died before it had any
Speaker 3: chance to live, because not only were the Niners trailing
Speaker 3: at halftime, but when they scored twenty five straight in
Speaker 3: the second half, that put him up twenty four Seahawks scored,
Speaker 3: and if they kicked the extra point, the offers an
Speaker 3: auto winner. They did the smart thing, they went for
Speaker 3: two that could have made it a sixteen point game.
Speaker 3: The Niners stop it. So the offer wins Demons's feel
Speaker 3: in some type of way about the offer because he
Speaker 3: puts in all these exotic parlays and does not take
Speaker 3: up the offer. And the offer has hit what four
Speaker 3: times this year about possibly more maybe for a number
Speaker 3: of times. But now we can get back to last
Speaker 3: week's pick. So the Niners minus nine and a half
Speaker 3: to me was the safest bet of the weekend. And
Speaker 3: the reason I feel comfortable saying that is because even
Speaker 3: though they trailed at halftime, they still won easily. The
Speaker 3: Seahawks just couldn't match up with them, obviously, Jacksonville plus
Speaker 3: two and a half was not what we would call
Speaker 3: a safe bet. However, what is remarkable about it is
Speaker 3: even they had found a way thanks to the Trevor
Speaker 3: two point conversion, where getting those two and a half
Speaker 3: points absolutely could have been the reason we won. If
Speaker 3: they get stuffed on that fourth and one, they lose
Speaker 3: thirty to twenty eight, but the offer didn't come in.
Speaker 3: But we still win because we're getting the two and
Speaker 3: a half points. Miami plus thirteen and a half didn't
Speaker 3: look safe early, and then it looked like a Miami
Speaker 3: money line was absolutely in play and honestly should have
Speaker 3: been in play. Miami had an amazing comeback. They took
Speaker 3: the lead, and then even after they relinquished the lead,
Speaker 3: even after they were down ten after taking the lead,
Speaker 3: they then fought back and had a great chance at
Speaker 3: what should have been at least a game tying field goal,
Speaker 3: but they butchered the very end of that game. But
Speaker 3: the plus thirteen and a half is good. Minnesota minus
Speaker 3: three we were on the wrong side of that one
Speaker 3: no way around it. Even though we were on the
Speaker 3: wrong side of that one. If Kirk Cousins could have
Speaker 3: picked up that third and eight or fourth and eight
Speaker 3: and they end up going to overtime, I feel like
Speaker 3: we would have been in decent shape. But that Minnesota
Speaker 3: defense was awful. Baltimore plus eight and a half was
Speaker 3: another one that we said we thought they could win
Speaker 3: out right with Tyler Huntley, they should have won that game.
Speaker 3: The Cincinnati their turnover luck in these playoffs the last
Speaker 3: two years has been historic. Joe Burrow has played five
Speaker 3: playoff games. The Bengals defens has forced eleven turnovers in
Speaker 3: those five playoff games. Wow, and the fumble six that Huntley.
Speaker 3: You know, Trevor, It's funny. Trevor said he the play
Speaker 3: was not for him to leap. He did that on
Speaker 3: his own. They had a different play called he saw
Speaker 3: it was open, he went and did it. It worked.
Speaker 3: He's a hero. The play for Huntley was not for
Speaker 3: him to leap. He went and did it. He saw it.
Speaker 3: He was wrong. He's a goat the difference. One of
Speaker 3: the differences that I would point out is the risk
Speaker 3: of that leap is exactly what happened to Huntley, ball
Speaker 3: gets knocked out of your hands and the team goes
Speaker 3: the other way.
Speaker 4: He got different builds, though not only.
Speaker 3: They have different builds. You screw that up on a
Speaker 3: two point conversion. Your worst case scenario is a four
Speaker 3: point swing, right, you screw it up when Huntley screwed
Speaker 3: it up, and it is a fourteen point swing. And
Speaker 3: even after the fund, so so many things there because
Speaker 3: Cincinnati was not moving the ball. If he just gets stuffed,
Speaker 3: if they kick the field goal, I think they win.
Speaker 3: If they go for it and don't get it and
Speaker 3: they get stuffed, I don't think Cincinnati moves the ball
Speaker 3: at all, and all of a sudden, you're punting probably
Speaker 3: back to Baltimore down or a tie game. And Justin
Speaker 3: Tucker's a huge weapon. Even with the fumble. If they
Speaker 3: call the block in the back that happened at the
Speaker 3: thirty yard line on the return, now Cincinnati has the
Speaker 3: ball on the forty and Baltimore's even playing so good.
Speaker 3: It was just that was the exact way for Baltimore
Speaker 3: to lose that game, and they lost the game. Also,
Speaker 3: while Huntley, they had first and goal from the four,
Speaker 3: they handed the ball to running backs one time they
Speaker 3: threw the ball to a full back on first down,
Speaker 3: it was a bad pass. They handed the ball to
Speaker 3: running back on second hand, got it to the one,
Speaker 3: got three yards, and then the quarterback sneak. I feel
Speaker 3: like that Greg Roman's got to go back and say, man,
Speaker 3: we were playing Baltimore Ravens football, first and goal from
Speaker 3: the four hand that ball off four times, Hand the
Speaker 3: ball off to JK. Dobbins four times, and see what
Speaker 3: we can do. And then obviously the one we were
Speaker 3: the furthest off on it, and the one game we
Speaker 3: have not yet talked about on this show, Tampa and Dallas.
Speaker 3: Dallas annihilated the Bucks. It has absolutely stripped any fear
Speaker 3: I think anyone should have of Tampa away. I think
Speaker 3: that or Brady, I should say, Tampa's obviously done. Brady's
Speaker 3: leaving there in a terrible cap situation. But a lot
Speaker 3: of us thought that Brady all year all year long,
Speaker 3: when Brady felt a pass rush, he would throw and duck.
Speaker 3: He would throw and duck so we wouldn't get hit.
Speaker 3: I think a lot of us, I know I did,
Speaker 3: assumed because he's old, he was preserving his body for
Speaker 3: the playoffs. And then once the playoffs came, he would
Speaker 3: take the punishment, take the hits, and stand in the pot.
Speaker 3: And while that game turned into a laugher Demonsey. They
Speaker 3: were down six to nothing with the ball inside the
Speaker 3: five and Brady turned and ducked at a pass rush
Speaker 3: and that's why he didn't get enough on it to
Speaker 3: get the ball out of the back of the end
Speaker 3: zone and threw a pick. And that is what kind
Speaker 3: of opened the floodgates. So if there are Brady's gonna
Speaker 3: play next year, I no longer fear him. If he
Speaker 3: were on San Francisco, he could win a Super Bowl
Speaker 3: because they're showing they can win with any quarterback. But
Speaker 3: if he goes to Miami, they're not good enough. If
Speaker 3: he goes to the Raiders, they're not good enough. If
Speaker 3: he goes to the Jets, they're not good enough. And
Speaker 3: you feel like I kind of insulted brock Purty there. Okay,
Speaker 3: we'll talk him in a moment. We'll also talk Cowboys
Speaker 3: in a moment. That's last week. Now we get to
Speaker 3: our picks from this week, and we will do them
Speaker 3: in the order that the games are. We are starting
Speaker 3: with the Kansas City Chiefs minus eight and a half
Speaker 3: at home against Jacksonville. We liked the Chiefs, and we
Speaker 3: like the Chiefs significantly in this football game. This is
Speaker 3: where it is instructive to remind the audience what the
Speaker 3: Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have done in
Speaker 3: their first playoff games of each season. So in the
Speaker 3: first playoff game Mahomes ever played against the Indianapolis Colts,
Speaker 3: they won by eighteen points. In the first playoff game
Speaker 3: Mahomes played in the following year at home against the Texans,
Speaker 3: they were down twenty four to nothing in the second quarter.
Speaker 3: They led the game at halftime. They were down twenty
Speaker 3: four to nothing in the second quarter. They led the
Speaker 3: game at halftime, and they won fifty one to thirty one.
Speaker 3: So down twenty four to nothing, they still covered. The
Speaker 3: next year they're playing the Browns. They are crushing the Browns.
Speaker 3: At halftime, Mahomes got hurt, had to leave the game.
Speaker 3: They won by five, so they didn't cover there. But
Speaker 3: that's a little bit of a question mark there. And
Speaker 3: that was the game where they thought Mahomes got a concussion.
Speaker 3: He actually got choked, so they wouldn't let him go
Speaker 3: back in the game. He did the get up and
Speaker 3: stumble and fall, so they they blacked him out from
Speaker 3: the game. I actually talked to him right after the game.
Speaker 3: He said, passed all my concussion tests. If you watch
Speaker 3: the video. I never even got hit in the head.
Speaker 3: But when the guy tackled him, the guy's forearm went
Speaker 3: up against his neck and it just like breathing. Yeah,
Speaker 3: caught off either blood flow or air to his brain,
Speaker 3: and so it like he feinted, but it wasn't a
Speaker 3: head injury. But they wouldn't let him go back in,
Speaker 3: so they didn't tackle. Yeah, it was crazy. That's also
Speaker 3: one of the reasons why I believed the two because
Speaker 3: even though it wasn't that type of play, just because
Speaker 3: something looks like a concussion doesn't mean it is a concussion,
Speaker 3: all right. And then last year, first game of the
Speaker 3: playoffs against the Steelers, they went by twenty one and
Speaker 3: it wasn't even that close. Andy Reid and last year
Speaker 3: was not off a buye. It should be noted, but
Speaker 3: Andy Reid off a bye against an inferior opponent, typically
Speaker 3: from the AFC South. Oddly enough, the Chiefs put it on. Additionally,
Speaker 3: we saw this game earlier this year. The Chiefs won
Speaker 3: by ten in a way no team has won a
Speaker 3: game in the NFL all year so prior to Jaggs
Speaker 3: Chargers where the Jacks from the ball over five times,
Speaker 3: Chargers zero and one, there had been thirty seven games
Speaker 3: in the NFL this year where a team won the
Speaker 3: turnover margin by three or more. Those teams were thirty
Speaker 3: six and one. One loss was Jaggs Chiefs when the
Speaker 3: Chiefs turned the ball over three times and put it
Speaker 3: on the Jaguars. Furthermore, it's not just they turn the
Speaker 3: ball over three times. The Jags started the game with
Speaker 3: a surprise on side kick and got it, so they
Speaker 3: essentially won the turnover battle for nothing. And despite that,
Speaker 3: that game was twenty to nothing and twenty seven to
Speaker 3: ten at various times, the Jags added a garbage time
Speaker 3: touchdown to make it twenty seven to seventeen. It was
Speaker 3: never in question. Now I'm gonna go a little a
Speaker 3: step further that JAG's pass defense can get god as
Speaker 3: we saw in the first half yes or this past weekend. Also,
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, in a stat no one believes, but I
Speaker 3: promise it is true, had the second most sacks of
Speaker 3: any team in the NFL this year, only the Eagles
Speaker 3: had more Chris Jones against the middle of that Jacksonville
Speaker 3: defensive line will be a problem for them. Mahomes will
Speaker 3: be sensational. Mahomes already the all time record for three
Speaker 3: touchdown playoff games is eleven. I believe by Brady He's
Speaker 3: played almost fifty playoff games. Then someone has nine, someone
Speaker 3: has eight. Mahomes has seven, It's fourth most. Ever. He's
Speaker 3: only played eleven playoff games, so in seven of his
Speaker 3: eleven he's gone for three touchdowns. The Chiefs are at home.
Speaker 3: They are right now, the healthiest they have been all year.
Speaker 3: And one other thing the Chiefs did this year that
Speaker 3: I think was very smart. I think they knew from
Speaker 3: the very beginning of the season that Jeric McKinnon number
Speaker 3: one for them. They're running back who started the year
Speaker 3: third stringth was their best back. However, I think they
Speaker 3: also know he's a guy whose whole career has been
Speaker 3: defined by injury. So they slowly and they upped his
Speaker 3: usage right before the stretch run for the playoffs. He
Speaker 3: won AFC Offensive Player of the Month with nine touchdown catches.
Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs annihilate the Jags. I've been high
Speaker 3: on the Jags. I told you guys five weeks ago
Speaker 3: the Jags were not going to lose again until the
Speaker 3: divisional round in Kansas City. The bracket had not even
Speaker 3: been set yet. I was very confident that the divisional
Speaker 3: round in Kansas City would be Jags coming to KC.
Speaker 3: I've got Kansas City minus eight and a half. Go
Speaker 3: ahead to monse.
Speaker 4: Doug Peterson is six and zero against the spread as
Speaker 4: a postseason underdog.
Speaker 3: It's very impressive. Now keep in mind, just keep in
Speaker 3: mind that three of those games came when the Eagles
Speaker 3: had the one seed and they were home dogs because
Speaker 3: they had a backup quarterback in So I do there
Speaker 3: at least two of those games. That is noteworthy, but
Speaker 3: go ahead fair enough.
Speaker 4: Mahomes is eleven in eighteen against the spread when the
Speaker 4: Chiefs are favorites by seven or more.
Speaker 3: YEP.
Speaker 4: Obviously, he did cover the nine and a half spread
Speaker 4: earlier this year against the Jags.
Speaker 3: So that is true. But let's again, though, look at
Speaker 3: what he is in the postseason. Okay, first playoff game
Speaker 3: against the Colts covered the spread. Second playoff game against
Speaker 3: the Patriots didn't cover the spread, that was in overtime.
Speaker 3: All right, So it was one and one the year
Speaker 3: they won the Super Bowl. Covered the spread all three
Speaker 3: times against the Texans, Titans, and Niners, all three of
Speaker 3: those games down by double digits. All three of those
Speaker 3: games won by double digits. Covered the spread all three times.
Speaker 3: So he's four and one. I'm going to throw out
Speaker 3: the Browns game that I mentioned because he got hurt.
Speaker 3: He did he was in root to covering. He got
Speaker 3: knocked out of the game against the Bills. AFC Championship game,
Speaker 3: covered the spread one by fourteaens now five and one
Speaker 3: Super Bowl against the Bucks obviously did not cover. Okay,
Speaker 3: against the very next year against the Steelers, covered the spread.
Speaker 3: So six and two against the Bills, covered the spread
Speaker 3: in overtime. Okay, seven and two against the Bengals obviously
Speaker 3: did not cover. They lost as another game they're up
Speaker 3: twenty one to three and the Mahomes melted down. So
Speaker 3: he's seven and three in the playoffs against the spread
Speaker 3: with the one seven and four technically, but one of
Speaker 3: those games he got knocked out. I trust the Chiefs,
Speaker 3: I trust Mahomes. I have not bet on the Chiefs
Speaker 3: a lot this year. Bet on the Jags far more often,
Speaker 3: but I like the Chiefs minus eight and a half
Speaker 3: next one. This to me was the hardest game to pick.
Speaker 3: I'm telling you right now, I will bet all of these.
Speaker 3: These are my four picks. This is the one that
Speaker 3: I have the least confidence. Giants plus seven and a
Speaker 3: half at Philly. Ultimately, I just took the points. I
Speaker 3: have been of the belief that Philly is not as
Speaker 3: good as the record suggests. Lane Johnson's gonna try to
Speaker 3: come back. I don't know how full strength he's going
Speaker 3: to be, and Jalen Hurts is obviously not one hundred percent. However,
Speaker 3: the Giants, there is a version of this game where
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones gets sacked seven times where he fumbles like
Speaker 3: he used to, and the Eagles with their pass rush
Speaker 3: alone dominate this football game. However, Dable is an excellent coach.
Speaker 3: We saw the Giants backups recently play Philly in the
Speaker 3: final week of the season and only lose by six,
Speaker 3: and it's a little misleading. They were down by more
Speaker 3: than that, but they came back a bit. I again,
Speaker 3: I don't have a super strong feeling on this game.
Speaker 3: But if I don't have a super strong feeling, and
Speaker 3: I'm getting more than a touchdown, and it's one of
Speaker 3: us scenario where they could be down fourteen and I'm
Speaker 3: still alive. All go ahead and grab the seven and
Speaker 3: a half points. But I don't feel great about it.
Speaker 4: Let me add something here. The Giants played the Eagles
Speaker 4: back in week eleven and it was this same exact
Speaker 4: line and they ended up losing by twenty six points.
Speaker 3: Okay, and I actually, I actually think it was worse
Speaker 3: than that, because they lost forty four to twenty two
Speaker 3: in that game, and or forty eight to twenty two,
Speaker 3: and that game was forty eight to fourteen with like
Speaker 3: a couple minutes left, so they all, you know, I mean,
Speaker 3: they lost by twenty six. They were down by thirty four,
Speaker 3: So yes, I agree, go ahead.
Speaker 4: Uh yeah. You're nine and four betting NFC East teams
Speaker 4: this year, though you went zero to two last week,
Speaker 4: including betting against the Giants despite knowing the vikings are flawed.
Speaker 4: You're also five and one in the NFC East divisional games.
Speaker 4: Seems like whatever you pick your bound to cash in.
Speaker 3: Well, I appreciate that. I'm telling you right now, I
Speaker 3: don't feel super strong about this game. I feel I
Speaker 3: I feel like The smart play is divisional game. What
Speaker 3: we saw last week right right, Dolphins Bills divisional game,
Speaker 3: the dog covered easily. Bengals Ravens divisional game, the dog
Speaker 3: covered easily. We're now getting Giants Philly divisional game. Also,
Speaker 3: by the way, oddly enough, every single game thus farthest
Speaker 3: playoffs has been a rematch of the regular season the
Speaker 3: first round. Every single game was this round. Every game
Speaker 3: is except for San Francisco Dallas, and that's a rematch
Speaker 3: of last year's wildcard round. It's kind of an oddity
Speaker 3: that's happened this year. I'll take the Giants plus the points,
Speaker 3: but I don't trust Daniel Jones. I don't trust the
Speaker 3: Giants as a whole, and that Philly defens is awesome,
Speaker 3: but I'll begrudgingly grab the seven and a half points.
Speaker 3: All right, we will take a very quick break. We
Speaker 3: will come back. We will come with my second favorite
Speaker 3: bet of the weekend, and then we'll also do San
Speaker 3: Francisco Dallas. We have Cincy Buffalo and San Francisco Dallas
Speaker 3: would do those next. We'lls right.
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Speaker 3: All right, welcome back in divisional weekend. What's right with Nick?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: Our Gambling Joe episode one to nineteen Again, Remember subscribe. Also,
Speaker 3: remember hit the bell if you are a subscriber on
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Speaker 3: on Mondays and Thursdays. And subscribe on your favorite podcast
Speaker 3: platform as well, if you'd like. All right, next game,
Speaker 3: Cincinnati Buffalo. I have a feeling demorrow Hamlin will lead
Speaker 3: them out of the tunnel. This is obviously the rematch
Speaker 3: of the game that we didn't get to see finished,
Speaker 3: but it was very early. Cincinnati did appear to be
Speaker 3: in good shape in that game. They had driven down
Speaker 3: and scored, they had been stopped. The Bills home to
Speaker 3: a field goal and drove in. Now since then, in
Speaker 3: that game, Cincinnati didn't have Alile Collins. They they might
Speaker 3: have also not had Alex Kappa, but they don't have
Speaker 3: Alex Kappa now the right so they don't have the
Speaker 3: right tackle with the right guard, and their left tackle
Speaker 3: Joanah Williams dislocated his kneecap, so that's three fifths of
Speaker 3: their offensive line. However, Joe Burrows used to not having
Speaker 3: a great offensive line. Additionally, the Bills shockingly have not
Speaker 3: been the same team since von Miller went now defensively,
Speaker 3: in particular from getting a pressure from the perspective of
Speaker 3: getting pressure. Pardon me, sorry for the Coffs guys, the Bills.
Speaker 3: A massive part of the reason the Bills were gonna
Speaker 3: be different this year was the von Miller edition. People
Speaker 3: have just kind of memory. Hold that what you know,
Speaker 3: what that defense looked like pre and post von Miller's injury. Also,
Speaker 3: Skyler Thompson, I know his numbers were terrible. We watched
Speaker 3: that game. There were openings in that Bill secondary, a
Speaker 3: lot of drops, and Skyler actually played better than the
Speaker 3: numbers suggest. Joe Burrow ain't no Skyler Thompson. Let's go
Speaker 3: a little further. The Bills played the Dolphins tail end
Speaker 3: of the year three point game. The Lions was a
Speaker 3: three point game, the Browns was just and the Jets
Speaker 3: were just eight point games. Now they blew out the
Speaker 3: Bears and I give them credit for that, and they
Speaker 3: beat the Patriots by twelve. They did not look great
Speaker 3: in Round one. I do not think their past defense
Speaker 3: is going to be able to hold up against Burrow.
Speaker 3: The Bengals are getting five and a half points. I
Speaker 3: think the Bengals win this game outright. I think we
Speaker 3: get a rematch of last year's AFC Championship game in Arrowhead.
Speaker 3: I think the whole neutral site thing is not going
Speaker 3: to come into play. I think that the difference for
Speaker 3: the Bengals, and going from the Ravens defense, which might
Speaker 3: have been the best in the league once they got
Speaker 3: Rokwan Smith to a Bills defense that Mac Jones moved
Speaker 3: the ball on, Skyler Thompson moved the ball on. We
Speaker 3: have seen teams move the ball on. Is going to
Speaker 3: be dramatic. I like Cincinnati to cover. This feels like
Speaker 3: a field goal game in either direction, but I also
Speaker 3: like them to win. And I don't think Josh Allen's
Speaker 3: going to play a clean game. I think that Josh
Speaker 3: Allen fumbled the ball three times and through two interceptions
Speaker 3: in a game where they were up seventy nothing and
Speaker 3: he didn't have to take chances. But he can't help himself.
Speaker 3: So I like Cincinnati plus the points, go ahead.
Speaker 4: And so in week seventeen, when Damar Hammlin went down,
Speaker 4: this this line was Buffalo minus two and a half.
Speaker 3: Yep, that was in Buffalo. Yeah, and this is the
Speaker 3: and so this is also I'm sorry I said it wrong.
Speaker 3: That was in Cincinnati. This one's in Buffalo. I I
Speaker 3: didn't the Bills. Vegas has loved the Bills. They have
Speaker 3: loved the Bills all year, to a level that I
Speaker 3: don't totally understand. But go ahead.
Speaker 4: Sorry. Burrow is thirteen and two against the spread as
Speaker 4: an underdog of three plus.
Speaker 3: All right, I didn't know that that's got that's full.
Speaker 4: No.
Speaker 3: Thirteen and two Yeah, wow, thirteen and two is a
Speaker 3: pretty good number. He's an underdog of more than three.
Speaker 3: But go ahead is.
Speaker 4: Sure a mindset here. Just the Bills lose and the
Speaker 4: Chiefs win. We'll put that Josh Allen Pat Mahomes thing
Speaker 4: to rest.
Speaker 3: Well, Josh Allen pat Mahomes. Thing has been rust If
Speaker 3: anyone has right, I do think it is. Here's the thing,
Speaker 3: and everyone thinks that I'm just anti Buffalo. I've been
Speaker 3: right about Josh Allen. I've been right about the Bills.
Speaker 3: He has thirty two combined picks and bumbles this year,
Speaker 3: thirty two the mote more than any other player in
Speaker 3: the league. No other player is more than twenty eight.
Speaker 3: And the guy who's twenty eight is Matt Ryan who
Speaker 3: got bitched.
Speaker 4: Well, it's like the same thing with like, you know,
Speaker 4: the point guard has the ball a lot, bound to
Speaker 4: get turnovers, you're gonna have the most the most turnover.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but all these quarterbacks have the ball a lot.
Speaker 3: And I understand he has the ball even more because
Speaker 3: he runs a lot. I get that part of it.
Speaker 3: Here's the thing. There is way more pressure for Mahomes
Speaker 3: if the Bengals win this game. If the Bills win,
Speaker 3: he's already beat him in the playoffs twice to neutral
Speaker 3: site on turf. If the Bengals come to Arrowhead in
Speaker 3: consecutive seasons and beat Mahomes. If people want to go
Speaker 3: on television and say Burrows the best quarterback in football
Speaker 3: all disagree with it, but they'll have an argument, So
Speaker 3: there's more pressure on the Chiefs if the Bengals win.
Speaker 3: Moril's story, I like Cincinnati plus five and a half.
Speaker 3: I also like them to win out right, all right,
Speaker 3: Let's get to the last game of the weekend Niners
Speaker 3: Cowboys San Francisco minus three and a half against Dallas.
Speaker 3: Bill Simmons says, and he's right, beware of the team
Speaker 3: that looked a little too good the previous week Dallas.
Speaker 5: Is that.
Speaker 3: San Francisco's offense and the versatility and how schematically sophisticated
Speaker 3: it is compared to what Tampa was running is night
Speaker 3: and day. Tampa can't run the ball. San Francisco has
Speaker 3: one of the best rushing attacks we've seen in the
Speaker 3: NFL in years. Dak Prescott just played a perfect game.
Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to be able to duplicate that.
Speaker 3: The only hesitation I have here I would I know
Speaker 3: this sounds dumb, but you guys have heard me say
Speaker 3: this throughout the year at various times. I would feel
Speaker 3: better betting this game if it was San Francisco minus six,
Speaker 3: it was San Francisco minus four and a half and
Speaker 3: the money on Dallas drove it down to three and
Speaker 3: a half. So somebody thinks Dallas, or a lot of
Speaker 3: somebody's think Dallas. They have the better quarterback. They're coming
Speaker 3: off this great game. I think San Francisco has been
Speaker 3: the best team in the league this year. I think
Speaker 3: San Francisco has been better than Kansas City this year.
Speaker 3: I think San Francisco with Christian McCaffrey, has looked utterly
Speaker 3: and thoroughly dominant. I think that pass rush will get
Speaker 3: to Dak. I think San Francisco will keep the Cowboys
Speaker 3: pass rush off balance by running the football as well
Speaker 3: as they do. And the cheat gode for San Francisco
Speaker 3: is this when they have Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Huschek, George Kittle, Deebo,
Speaker 3: Samuel Brandon Ayu, those five guys on the field, plus
Speaker 3: the quarterback and the five offensive line, and there's your eleven.
Speaker 3: So you know how, Demonta, you'll like this. You know
Speaker 3: how in Madden you finally started winning once. I and
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say this to be rude, explain to you
Speaker 3: the importance the defensive formations, Like, hey, if they've got
Speaker 3: four wide you can't be in your base defense else
Speaker 3: you have linebackers on. And when you're playing you like
Speaker 3: to run the ball when somebody's got uh. When somebody's
Speaker 3: playing in dime with six corners out there and there's
Speaker 3: all these little people, you can just run right at them.
Speaker 3: With big people. Here's why the Niners are so devastating.
Speaker 3: They put those five guys out there, and if you go, okay,
Speaker 3: they've got a full back and use check, a running back,
Speaker 3: a tight end, and then just two receivers. We can
Speaker 3: play base defense well. Christian McCaffrey's basically a running back
Speaker 3: or a wide receiver. Used Check's the best pass catching
Speaker 3: full back in football. Kittle's the second best pass catching
Speaker 3: tight end football. If you go big with those same
Speaker 3: five guys, they can go five wide, spread you out,
Speaker 3: and now you have a linebacker on Christian McCaffrey or
Speaker 3: Kittle or both. If you say, all right, we're not
Speaker 3: letting that happen. We're putting our small people out there,
Speaker 3: they can go I formation with Deebo, who's a great
Speaker 3: runner in blocker. Ayuka is a great runner and blocker,
Speaker 3: full back Christian McCaffery and Kittle, so they can keep
Speaker 3: those same guys out there, let your whatever defensive personnel
Speaker 3: you put out there dictate whether or not you're going
Speaker 3: what they're gonna run. They are devastating to deal with.
Speaker 3: Shanahan's brilliant. I like Shanahan in this spot. It's also
Speaker 3: an interesting one. Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator. Dan
Speaker 3: Quinn was the defensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons in
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl when they were up twenty eight to
Speaker 3: three on Tom Brady and they blew it. I like
Speaker 3: that kind of I like that little nuanced matchup. The
Speaker 3: only reason San Francisco loses is if rock Perty turns
Speaker 3: into a pumpkin. You like Purty. I don't even think
Speaker 3: if he's gonna turn into a pumpkin. It's not gonna
Speaker 3: be a home game against Dallas. Maybe the following week
Speaker 3: against Philly if that were to happen. If Philly gets there,
Speaker 3: I like San Francisco minus three and a half go ahead.
Speaker 4: First off, you're nine and two picking a NFC East teams,
Speaker 4: and you're eight and no picking against NFC West.
Speaker 3: Teams, eight no picking against yep NFC West teams. Well,
Speaker 3: I don't know how I feel about that. But go ahead.
Speaker 4: I just want to say here, don't bet with your
Speaker 4: heart just because your biggest bet of the year as
Speaker 4: San Francisco Chiefs Super Bowl. Yeah, it's a bet us
Speaker 4: all your bets is like the best path for that
Speaker 4: bet to happen.
Speaker 3: Well, my bets are also winning for the record. Maybe
Speaker 3: maybe there's something to go ahead? Uh oh yeah?
Speaker 4: Does that plus minus three and a half scare you?
Speaker 4: With the kicking situation in Dallas.
Speaker 3: Well they didn't cut the kicker, right, but they did
Speaker 3: just sign another kicker, So I actually think that's a
Speaker 3: half measure and dumb. I don't think you can. I
Speaker 3: think you needed to either fire the kicker or just
Speaker 3: be like, you're our guy.
Speaker 4: We believe when they're signing kickers, who are they like,
Speaker 4: who's the guys?
Speaker 3: And the had been in the league but got cut
Speaker 3: because they missed kicks.
Speaker 4: And you're gonna I could call the bin for the.
Speaker 3: First playoff, Yes, And so I don't like that maneuver.
Speaker 3: I ain't. It actually adds to Maher's stress level and
Speaker 3: he was clearly in his head right, But yeah, that
Speaker 3: is I will say, having a the fact that the
Speaker 3: shaky kickers on the team I'm not on does make
Speaker 3: me feel a little bit better, all right. So there's
Speaker 3: our four picks for the weekend. Can't City minus eight
Speaker 3: and a half, Giants plus seven and a half with trepidation,
Speaker 3: Cincinnati plus five and a half and on the money line,
Speaker 3: and San Francisco minus three and a half. Wrapped the
Speaker 3: show with an offer next, what's right? I don't even
Speaker 3: make single game parlays. Typically. It was not just like
Speaker 3: random clicking a buttons. It was the exact game script.
Speaker 3: I thought, forty to one because Chelsea don't at the end,
Speaker 3: where is there? Yo?
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a Kelsey dive.
Speaker 3: The chief went forward on this.
Speaker 6: Oh oh, welcome back in What a moment that was.
Speaker 6: I forgot that that was Chiefs Jags when I hit
Speaker 6: the forty to one when Kelsey got the extra yard
Speaker 6: at the end of the game to win that game.
Speaker 3: Crazy. So this week. Last week we gave out some teasers.
Speaker 3: We gave out, you know, various winners. I will tell
Speaker 3: you I'm gonna put a small taste on a Chiefs
Speaker 3: Bengals teaser six pointer Chiefs to get to minus two
Speaker 3: and a half and the Bengals to get up to
Speaker 3: plus eleven. And a half. The reason it's just a
Speaker 3: small taste is because to the teasing the Bengals, I'm
Speaker 3: not getting through enough key numbers. You like, I'm getting
Speaker 3: through the seven and the eight and the ten, but
Speaker 3: they're already at five and a half. So there's not
Speaker 3: like enough value there to make that a full blown
Speaker 3: gotta tease. Some people will be teasing the Eagles down
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, and Eagles will be a very popular teaser,
Speaker 3: getting the Chiefs from eight and a half down to
Speaker 3: less than three, the Eagles seven and a half down
Speaker 3: to less than two. But I think the Giants have
Speaker 3: a puncher chance in that game, so I'm not teasing that.
Speaker 3: But that same game, Parlay was an intriguing one. It's
Speaker 3: pretty great, And I am going to go back to
Speaker 3: the well to a degree. So I like Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 3: over two hundred and fifty and a half receiving or
Speaker 3: passing yards, and I like Travis et ten over eighteen
Speaker 3: and a half receiving yards. I am going to include
Speaker 3: in there if I can find it, Travis Kelcey over
Speaker 3: eighty one and a half receiving yards. The guy is
Speaker 3: the all time leader in playoff receiving yards per game,
Speaker 3: anytime touchdown score, we're going to put Kelsey. We are
Speaker 3: going to put where is he Cadarius Tony as in
Speaker 3: anytime touchdown scorer? And we are going to put Pachecko
Speaker 3: or McKinnon. McKinnon has been the guy. But I think
Speaker 3: they let Pachecko get one. Pachecko as in any time
Speaker 3: touchdown score. If I take that off, where.
Speaker 1: Are we at?
Speaker 3: Yes, they give it to and it was five yard line.
Speaker 3: I feel like, yep, Kelsey, Pachecko, Tony All to score
Speaker 3: Lawrence over two hundred and fifty and a half passing yards,
Speaker 3: Kelsey over eighty one and a half at ten over
Speaker 3: eighteen and a half. That is seventy eight to one.
Speaker 3: So we'll put a little taste on that. And if
Speaker 3: I manicure this a bit, all tweet out what the
Speaker 3: adjusted same game parlay is. But that's seventy eight to one.
Speaker 3: We'll do that. Let me just see you real quick.
Speaker 3: If I add now, adding the Chiefs minus the eight
Speaker 3: and a half only makes it one hundred and twenty
Speaker 3: six to one. It doesn't double it. Adding the Chiefs
Speaker 3: on the money, you know what we're gonna throw in
Speaker 3: the Chiefs on the money line to make it eighty
Speaker 3: eight to one, because I just gave you a scenario
Speaker 3: where the Chiefs are scoring three touchdowns for it to
Speaker 3: hit anyway those again at least those three touchdowns. So
Speaker 3: there it is. Division a round gambling show. Chiefs minus
Speaker 3: eight and a half, Niners minus three and a half,
Speaker 3: Bengals plus five and a half, Giants plus seven and
Speaker 3: a half. We'll see you Monday as we preview a
Speaker 3: Chiefs Bengals a FC championship game, and a Niners versus
Speaker 3: somebody NFC championship game. We'll do that Monday. Talk to
Speaker 3: you then. What's right