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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business app.

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Speaker 3: Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Welcome to the Monday edition

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Speaker 4: of Bloomberg Sound On. We have news and guess what

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Speaker 4: it does not involve the debt ceiling. Yeah, this is

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Speaker 4: the big curtain raiser here. Now that the work is

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Speaker 4: done in Washington, at least on the debt ceiling, we've

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Speaker 4: avoided catastrophe, all eyes turned to the campaign trail and

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Speaker 4: we do have breaking news if I can use that

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Speaker 4: term here as Mike Pence makes it official, dropping the

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Speaker 4: paperwork here, he actually filed it today to run for president. Yes,

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Speaker 4: he is going to run against his former boss Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: Having spent a big old weekend with all of the

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Speaker 4: candidates except Donald Trump. In Iowa.

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Speaker 1: How's the great state of Iowa?

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Speaker 5: Oia?

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Speaker 6: I have been to well?

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Speaker 7: Hello? Why you were?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? Excited? Iowa stayed fair just a couple of months

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Speaker 4: away with Mike Pence. They're wearing the leather jacket. Did

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Speaker 4: you see what was a vest. Technically you see him

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Speaker 4: in the bikeer outfit. It was Jony Ernst Roast and Ride,

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Speaker 4: fire it up, and an opportunity not only to ride

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Speaker 4: motorcycles and show off your leather ware, but to shake

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Speaker 4: hands and eat lots of junk food. Wanda Santis here

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Speaker 4: making He had a little cotton candy for the kids

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Speaker 4: making the way around the fairgrounds. And this is what

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Speaker 4: happens here. Obviously, this is the big contest. NICKI Haley

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Speaker 4: was there, Senator Tim Scott, Mike Pence, and this is

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Speaker 4: the week that Chris Christy jumps into the race that's

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Speaker 4: set for tomorrow. And Mike Pence, who spoke at the

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Speaker 4: roast and Ride, he said he roasted and he rode,

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Speaker 4: not the roast and ride. Little did we know he

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Speaker 4: would be dropping paperwork the very next day.

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Speaker 5: Radical left has been assaulting our values and assaulting our

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Speaker 5: families almost as never before. But the great thing I've

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Speaker 5: seen traveling across this country is with the American people.

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Speaker 5: American people are on too, just ask Bud Light Target

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Speaker 5: And by the way, a message to Major League Baseball.

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Speaker 5: Religious bigotry has no place in America's pastime.

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Speaker 4: And now it's official with a real formal announcement to

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Speaker 4: happen later this week. Let's get started with a man

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Speaker 4: who spent a lot of time in Iowa lately, and

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Speaker 4: that is Bloomberg's Mark Niquette, National politics reporter. Mark your

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Speaker 4: thoughts on this After seeing them all together here, it

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Speaker 4: was almost like the Iowa State Fair a little bit early.

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Speaker 4: How important this state is going to play in disrupting

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump's path.

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Speaker 8: I think the ballgame is Iowa. Frankly, I mean it's

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Speaker 8: it's I think unless Donald Trump is beaten in Iowa,

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Speaker 8: or has a very close win or loses Iowa, you

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Speaker 8: know he's on the path to become the nomination. I

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Speaker 8: think if a Canada can defeat Trump in Iowa again,

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Speaker 8: come really close, that'll provide some momentum heading into New

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Speaker 8: Hampshire in South Carolina to make it a real race.

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Speaker 8: You know, Donald Trump was not invincible, and there'll be

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Speaker 8: an actual campaign for the nomination.

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Speaker 4: What are these two announcements going to look like this week?

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Speaker 4: Chris Christy and then Mike fans.

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Speaker 8: Well, we expect former Governor Christy to announce that a

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Speaker 8: town hall event in New Hampshire on Tuesday tomorrow and

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Speaker 8: the big question with with Christy is whether it's just

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Speaker 8: a Kamakazi candidacy where sole purpose is to take out Trump,

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Speaker 8: because Christy has been one of the most vocal critics

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Speaker 8: of Trump and and telling Republicans you can't nominate Trump

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Speaker 8: if you want to win. Or if he thinks he

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Speaker 8: does have a path to the nomination, it doesn't really

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Speaker 8: look like he does, or at least, you know, critics

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Speaker 8: don't think he does. But you know, we'll see. And

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Speaker 8: then Mike Pence is going to formally announce he filed

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Speaker 8: his paperwork today. He's going to have a big announcement

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Speaker 8: event in Iowa, and he is one of the candidates

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Speaker 8: who will be sort of betting everything on Iowa. He

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Speaker 8: thinks he can appeal to evangelical voters and Iowan's as

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Speaker 8: a fellow Midwesterner, and again, if you can you can

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Speaker 8: do well, have a good showing in Iowa. It's sort

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Speaker 8: of a rationale for his candidacy going forward.

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Speaker 4: And of course they're going to be spending a lot

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Speaker 4: of time there, doing a lot of traveling, I'm sure,

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Speaker 4: and Mike Pence, to your point, I mean enjoying that

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Speaker 4: evangelical base in Iowa is he going to hear a

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Speaker 4: lot about Donald Trump, and in speaking with voters, I

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Speaker 4: suspect that there's going to be a lot of revisiting

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Speaker 4: the past year.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, and pens is trying to thread of a very

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Speaker 8: tough needle here where he's trying to sort of appeal

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Speaker 8: to Trumps supporters or the Republicans who like the policies

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Speaker 8: of the Trump Pence administration, is how Pence describes it

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Speaker 8: while breaking from the former president on election denihilism and

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Speaker 8: other things. You know, sort of be the alternative for

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Speaker 8: folks who don't want to renominate Trump. But he's in

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Speaker 8: this position where, you know, he's not been able to

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Speaker 8: win over the hardcore Trump supporters who haven't forgiven him

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Speaker 8: for betraying they would say, you know, defying President Trump

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Speaker 8: on January sixth, And he hasn't really you know, attracted

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Speaker 8: the Republicans who are looking for an alternative either. He's

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Speaker 8: still polling at less than four percent and the Real

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Speaker 8: Clear Politics average of polls, so he hasn't caught on there.

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Speaker 8: But he sort of falls into that category of, you know,

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Speaker 8: candidates who are running to be the Trump alternative, if

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Speaker 8: in fact that possibility exists, you know, if we find

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Speaker 8: as we get close to voting at you know, Trump

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Speaker 8: is vulnerable, he's been indicted several times. Whatever, that there's

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Speaker 8: there's an open, more open race for the nomination that

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Speaker 8: it appears.

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Speaker 4: Today, right, Mark, It's always a pleasure. A nice job

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Speaker 4: on c SPAN this morning. Mark Niquette, our national politics

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Speaker 4: reporter with us at the top here on the fastest

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Speaker 4: show in politics. I'm glad to say. Kyle Condick joins us,

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Speaker 4: the managing editor of Sabado's Crystal Ball at the gorgeous

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Speaker 4: University of Virginia Center for Politics in Kyle, it's great

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Speaker 4: to have you back. We should add two more headlines

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Speaker 4: since I got to work this morning. As a matter

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Speaker 4: of fact, Chris Sununu, the governor New Hampshire, says he's

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Speaker 4: not running. And of course we also have reports that

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Speaker 4: the governor of North Dakota, Doug Bergham, will join the

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Speaker 4: mix this week. So this will add up to being

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Speaker 4: the busiest week on the campaign trail so far for

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Speaker 4: the Republican primary trail. Are there still more to follow?

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Speaker 9: I mean, hey, if we just maybe talk in a

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Speaker 9: few hours, maybe there'll be a bunch of new developments

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Speaker 9: that will say that this we sort of I think

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Speaker 9: we expected this to be kind of a kind of

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Speaker 9: a big week of this. Sw Sue new was sort

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Speaker 9: of maybe kind of kicking around the possibility. But you know,

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Speaker 9: the I think CNN broke that news today about uh

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Speaker 9: Snoho not doing it. So I don't know if that's

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Speaker 9: surprising or not, but but it is. You know, the field,

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Speaker 9: it has gotten significantly bigger, and you know, I think

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Speaker 9: the sort of working theory here for the whole time

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Speaker 9: is that Trump basically benefits from there being more candidates

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Speaker 9: because to the extent that there's opposition to Trump and

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Speaker 9: there is within the party, Trump is still the leading

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Speaker 9: candidate both in the state level polls that we look

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Speaker 9: at and also the national polls. And you know, particularly

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Speaker 9: the rules on the Republican side. You know, if you're

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Speaker 9: even like a plurality leader in a lot of these contests,

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Speaker 9: particularly later in the cycle, you in some cases can

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Speaker 9: win all the delegates or most of the delegates. So

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Speaker 9: things seem to be proceeding pretty well for you know,

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Speaker 9: for Donald Trump, at least over the past few months.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, does that Doug Bergham candidacy sound real to you?

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Speaker 4: I mean, if if the candidates we've already mentioned are

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Speaker 4: struggling with name recognition. How do you get out of

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Speaker 4: the gates?

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Speaker 9: Well, yeah, I mean, you know, he's a you know,

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Speaker 9: governor of North Dakota, but you know, I certainly is

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Speaker 9: not much of a you know, national figure. I mean, like,

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Speaker 9: you know, his neighbor to the south, Christinome, she's certainly

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Speaker 9: certainly a more nationally known political figure. You know, she'd

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Speaker 9: got into the race, I think that might have been

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Speaker 9: like a bigger splash. But I think all these candidates

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Speaker 9: are just sort of hoping that well, at the very least,

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Speaker 9: maybe they could raise their own name id, but also

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Speaker 9: that if they don't think DeSantis can do it, and

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Speaker 9: they think Trump the bottom might fall out for Trump

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Speaker 9: for one reason of the other. Then maybe there's some

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Speaker 9: sort of mad dash in the second half of this

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Speaker 9: year and into next year and it becomes this wide

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Speaker 9: open race. I don't necessarily know if that's something we

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Speaker 9: should expect, but that's got to be the theory of

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Speaker 9: the case for a lot of these candidates.

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Speaker 4: With Christan Nunu dropping out, I don't mean to overplay

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Speaker 4: his potential impact on this race. He was in the

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Speaker 4: single digits in any of the polls that were scooping

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Speaker 4: up his name here. But does that open up New

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Speaker 4: Hampshire at all for a debut, if you will. It

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Speaker 4: seems like everyone's focusing their early fire on Iowa here.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I kind of wonder if if folks

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Speaker 9: maybe were waiting for that a little bit, although you know,

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Speaker 9: I mean Iowa was to focus this past weekend. But

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Speaker 9: you know, the candidates have been hitting you know, a

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Speaker 9: lot of the lot of the early states, which unlike

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Speaker 9: on the Democratic side, the early state slate has remained

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Speaker 9: the same on the on the Republican side. I think

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Speaker 9: it's also worth noting that, you know, Snowe new in

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Speaker 9: polls of New Hampshire, it's not like he was dominating

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Speaker 9: that state primary. I mean, he was usually the you know,

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Speaker 9: he was not used usually behind the Santus and Trump

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Speaker 9: and in polls, well launch polls of that state, just

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Speaker 9: like you see in like South Carolina. You know, you've

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Speaker 9: got Tim Scott and Niki Haley, but they're you know,

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Speaker 9: they're not leading poles in that state. I mean, it's

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Speaker 9: really for a long time it's been a two person race,

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Speaker 9: although between the Sanders and Trump, although given Trump's recent leads.

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Speaker 9: You could almost say it's like a one person race,

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Speaker 9: and you're waiting to see if something happens with that

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Speaker 9: one person, Trump, if he falls off or not. Otherwise

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Speaker 9: this thing, you know, may may be pretty sleepy in

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Speaker 9: terms of just the actual contest.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, how about your governor Kyle Glenn Youngkin. He was

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Speaker 4: kind of off again, on again, off again. Where are

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Speaker 4: we now?

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Speaker 9: I feel like there's different reporting on a fairly regular

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Speaker 9: basis as to whether he's, you know, not gonna do it,

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Speaker 9: not gonna do it. He's been very focused and you know,

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Speaker 9: raising a lot of money and and trying to fund

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Speaker 9: the the race for the state Legislature in Virginia. You know,

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Speaker 9: the state Senate is narrowly controlled by Democrats, state House

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Speaker 9: is narrowly controlled by Republicans. Younkin wants to control both

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Speaker 9: chambers so that he can have a productive back half

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Speaker 9: of his gubernatorial tenure. You know, I think there still

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Speaker 9: seems like there's this possibility that maybe he could get

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Speaker 9: into the race much later, although you know, by the

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Speaker 9: time you get to the fall, you might start running

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Speaker 9: up against like filing deadlines and that sort of thing.

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Speaker 9: And I also just wonder how much demand there actually

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Speaker 9: would be for him. I mean, it's been interesting that

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Speaker 9: you have these you know, fairly popular you know governors

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Speaker 9: of kind of purple slash blue states like New Hampshire

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Speaker 9: Larry Hogan used to be the govern of Maryland, and

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Speaker 9: Young King in Virginia, and you know, surveys of those

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Speaker 9: states extend to ask about the Republican primary. You know,

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Speaker 9: it's not like they're dominating at home. Now. Maybe if

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Speaker 9: you actually got to the contest and you had the

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Speaker 9: homestake governor, it might be a different story, like you

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Speaker 9: know John Kasik in Ohio in twenty sixteen where he

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Speaker 9: won Ohio, but that was basically it. But you know,

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Speaker 9: there's not there's not a whole lot of clamoring I

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Speaker 9: think for like obviously for Snun who decided not to

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Speaker 9: do it. You know, Hogan's not going to do it,

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Speaker 9: and you know Youngkin. I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 9: kind of elite Republican enthusiasm about him, But I don't

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Speaker 9: think that the rank and file is necessarily you know,

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Speaker 9: pounded out his doors for.

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Speaker 7: Him to run.

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Speaker 4: How about you know, name recognition and candidates aside messaging,

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Speaker 4: And I ask you that because Nikki Haley was asked

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Speaker 4: last night in her town hall on CNN to define woke,

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Speaker 4: and she spoke for a couple of minutes. I won't

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Speaker 4: put everyone through it now, but but never really did

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Speaker 4: define it. Ron DeSantis has been asked this before, and

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Speaker 4: some would suggest Kyle that that is the message for

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Speaker 4: the Republican primary field.

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Speaker 3: Are they right?

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Speaker 10: Yeah?

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Speaker 9: I mean, look, I think there's there's a lot of

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Speaker 9: leaning into sort of cultural conservatism and running against what

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Speaker 9: they perceive as the excesses of the left. And you know,

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Speaker 9: part part of what's convenient about that is you don't

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Speaker 9: have to necessarily run it's a it's a unifying kind

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Speaker 9: of message, at least on the Republican side. You know,

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Speaker 9: you're not gonna I mean, the rhetoric toward you know,

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Speaker 9: like transgender athletes and that sort of thing has been

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Speaker 9: fairly harsh on the on the Republican side. That was

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Speaker 9: something that the that Nikki Haley got into last night,

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Speaker 9: and you know, so it's I think it's kind of

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Speaker 9: heavy on sort of culture war red meat stuff, which

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Speaker 9: again I think has sort of a unifying effect on

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Speaker 9: the GOP field. But you know, if if that's all

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Speaker 9: it's not it's not everything that People's people are talking

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Speaker 9: about that seems to be the focus of the message.

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Speaker 9: But I don't see, necessarily see how you really do

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Speaker 9: that much different than Trump in that regard. And look,

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Speaker 9: maybe the public the Republicans don't want anything different than Trump.

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Speaker 9: But if that's the case, then they're probably just gonna

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Speaker 9: vote for Trump instead of these other options. I mean,

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Speaker 9: I know there are a lot of unknowns out there.

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Speaker 9: You know, Trump may face future legal trouble beyond what

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Speaker 9: he's already in, so maybe that sort of scrambles things.

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Speaker 9: But you know, for the time being, like I said,

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Speaker 9: I mean, Trump's position seems pretty good.

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Speaker 4: I'll lay one more on you. Cornell West announces today

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Speaker 4: for the People's Party. Do we ever talk about it

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Speaker 4: again after the day? Is this a Ralph Nader thing

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Speaker 4: for Joe Biden? Does it matter?

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Speaker 9: I mean, look, you our presidential elections are so close

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Speaker 9: in this country typically speaking, you know, we've really only

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Speaker 9: had one kind of i'd say, kind of run away this,

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Speaker 9: you know, of the last six elections, that was Obama

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Speaker 9: in two thousand and eight, and even you know, he

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Speaker 9: only didn't you know, didn't win by double digits in

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Speaker 9: the popular vote, and if this thing is super close

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Speaker 9: in the Key states as it was in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 9: in both twenty twenty, you know, if there is a

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Speaker 9: kind of alternative candidate on the ballot who gets half

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Speaker 9: a percent of the vote or something like that or

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Speaker 9: even less than that, you know, maybe that has some

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Speaker 9: sort of bearing on the outcome. But you know, even

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Speaker 9: for like the you know, if No Labels runs a

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Speaker 9: presidential candidate, that that person will probably the most high

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Speaker 9: profile and best funded third party candidate, there's still no

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Speaker 9: path to victory for that person either.

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Speaker 4: And nobody wants to raise their hand. Everybody thought it

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Speaker 4: was Larry Hogan. What happened?

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Speaker 7: Right? Yeah?

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Speaker 9: And I mean, you know, there is this infrastructure in

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Speaker 9: place for that for this person. And but you know,

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Speaker 9: I also think that, you know, maybe the experience of

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Speaker 9: twenty sixteen, you know, six percent of the elector had

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Speaker 9: voted for someone other than Trumper or Clinton in that election.

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Speaker 9: You know, maybe there's a feeling that, hey, you know,

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Speaker 9: if I'm voting third party, I'm really just kind of

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Speaker 9: not you know, my vote isn't counting, particularly in the

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Speaker 9: in the Key swing states. So you know, I think

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Speaker 9: there's a lot of delusions going on with what the

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Speaker 9: no labels folks talk about in public as to their

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Speaker 9: path the victory. I mean, I just think it's just

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Speaker 9: seems like a total pipe trin to me.

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Speaker 4: Hey, great to talk to you, Kyle. The campaign is on.

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Speaker 4: That's why we needed Kyle Condick, of course from Sabado's

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Speaker 4: Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

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Speaker 4: And you know what you need now is the panel

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Speaker 4: Rick and Genie off the weekend and on the air.

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Speaker 1: Next you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 7: And the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: He has less than four percent support in the Real

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Speaker 4: Clear Politics average of polls, and he's just made it official.

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Speaker 4: Your former vice president Mike Pence is running as opposed

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Speaker 4: to last weekend in Iowa when he was riding.

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Speaker 5: Wialo, Iowa. It is great to be back at the

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Speaker 5: roast and ride. Yeah, I rode and I roasted on

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Speaker 5: the ride.

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Speaker 4: Okay, there's Mike Pence in Iowa for us. As we

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Speaker 4: reassemble the panel, Rick Davis and Geenie shan Zeno are

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Speaker 4: back again Bloomberg Politics contributors, our signature panel as we

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Speaker 4: raise the curtain on twenty four Rick Davis, these kind

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Speaker 4: of events, the ride and roast, you have to do

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Speaker 4: it right. But do you have to wear the leather vest?

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Speaker 7: Oh?

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Speaker 4: I think Mike Pence chose this weekend. Yeah.

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Speaker 11: I think the ride is mandatory, the vest is optional.

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Speaker 11: I think that's a really interesting piece of equipment for

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Speaker 11: him because everyone's used to seeing him in blue suits

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Speaker 11: and white shirts with at the point, so I think

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Speaker 11: that he fit in really well. He is a motorcycle enthusiast,

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Speaker 11: and I think he was able to show Republican voters

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Speaker 11: at the roast and ride a different side of Mike Pence,

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Speaker 11: which he's going to have to show him in order

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Speaker 11: to be competitive.

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Speaker 7: Well.

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Speaker 4: I suspect yeah, that we might see a lot more

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Speaker 4: of that though. Rick, what's your advice to the former

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Speaker 4: vice president here when you're at four percent and you've

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Speaker 4: got Donald Trump the other end of the stage.

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Speaker 11: Well, you know, you can look at it from the positive.

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Speaker 11: Four percent means he's four times more support than Nicky

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Speaker 11: Haley and other people, but he's got a long.

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Speaker 3: Way to go.

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Speaker 11: He will appeal to sort of disaffected Trump Republicans because

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Speaker 11: he does support the policies that they had, tax policy,

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Speaker 11: foreign policy, things like that, but obviously broke with the

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Speaker 11: president over January sixth.

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Speaker 4: So you know, if you.

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Speaker 11: Are a disaffected Trump Maga voter, you know, you might

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Speaker 11: take a look at Mike because he's the closest you

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Speaker 11: got to his boss. But I'm not sure how much

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Speaker 11: that has conviction in Iowa. He's gonna have to run

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Speaker 11: his own campaign. He's going to have to be his

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Speaker 11: own candidate, and he has the potential to pick up

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Speaker 11: support in Iowa. I'm not sure, you know, is a

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Speaker 11: second place finish good enough for him to get a

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Speaker 11: ticket out of Iowa. We're going to see and and

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Speaker 11: but I think that's sort of he's a one state

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Speaker 11: candidate right now, and if he if he doesn't get

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Speaker 11: a ticket out of Iowa, he's not going to get

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Speaker 11: on any more motorcycles at future events.

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Speaker 4: That's right. So, Genie, he actually he filed paperwork today

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Speaker 4: this this is real. This is official for Mike Pence.

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Speaker 4: A lot of folks thought maybe he would not run,

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Speaker 4: even just a couple of weeks ago here, But you're

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Speaker 4: gonna have Chris Christy tomorrow, and then you'll have one

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Speaker 4: on the other side of that announcement, the announcement from

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Speaker 4: the Governor of North Dakota, Doug Bergham, Who are you

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Speaker 4: actually watching this week as a quote unquote real threat

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Speaker 4: here to Donald Trump?

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Speaker 12: You know, I'm really excited for Chris Christy to come out.

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Speaker 12: He's always bombastic, he always has a lot to say.

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Speaker 12: He is badly trailing in the polls at this point,

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Speaker 12: but you know, hoping he can move it up. But

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Speaker 12: can I just say, Joe Matthew, I want to get

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Speaker 12: you a leather jacket. Oh no, no, no, it seems to

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Speaker 12: be the thing we had Casey DeSantis out there where

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Speaker 12: woe goes to die. I'm getting you one with the

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Speaker 12: fastest hours in politics, and I'm gonna couple that with

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Speaker 12: a vest for Rick with the same saying on it.

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Speaker 4: See, Rick might be able to pull that off. I

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Speaker 4: know that I can't pull this stuff off, which is

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Speaker 4: why I would never go there. But very kind of

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Speaker 4: you to think of me. How about Chris Christy and

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Speaker 4: the idea that, as Kyle Kandick put it, Rick as

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Speaker 4: the kamikaze candidate. I think I was calling him a

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Speaker 4: higher assassin last time we discussed that. Does he actually

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Speaker 4: play a role in that he jumps into the race

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Speaker 4: just to cut off Donald Trump at the knees with

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Speaker 4: no intention of winning the nomination?

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Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, Look, I mean Chris Christy called it

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Speaker 11: himself the murder suicide of the twenty sixteen campaign. So

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Speaker 11: there are a lot of different characterizations of him. But look,

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Speaker 11: I think he's going to take a swing at the fence.

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Speaker 11: Clearly his focus is going to be on taking down

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Speaker 11: Donald Trump. But I think this is where he has

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Speaker 11: clarity amongst the field, because if the rest of the

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Speaker 11: field doesn't also do that, then none of them are

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Speaker 11: going to have a shot at the nomination. So I'm

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Speaker 11: not sure what anybody else thinks is their path other

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Speaker 11: than through Donald Trump. So if Christy can help clear

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Speaker 11: that path, maybe he gives himself a shot you know

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Speaker 11: later on in the primaries that winning some states and

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Speaker 11: maybe you know, having a having a say as to

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Speaker 11: what happens at the convention. Uh, there's there's no guarantee

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Speaker 11: that anybody wins this thing outright.

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Speaker 4: At this stage, Does Doug Bergham do anything for you?

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Speaker 4: And I ask you that here on Bloomberg, knowing that

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Speaker 4: you know he's a he's a former business guy who

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Speaker 4: is a software entrepreneur, could invest his own money to

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Speaker 4: finance his campaign. Does anyone end up talking about him?

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Speaker 11: Yeah, he'll make himself probably a factor if he can

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Speaker 11: get into the into the debates. That's going to take

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Speaker 11: some effort on his part because he starts with literally

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Speaker 11: no no name I D whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: Uh.

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Speaker 11: And maybe the fundraising threshold has become a problem for him,

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Speaker 11: uh that the RNC have set. But the reality is

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Speaker 11: I think he falls into the category of a lot

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Speaker 11: of one percenters right now, which is if you don't

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Speaker 11: get some momentum soon. This is not a schedule of

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Speaker 11: primaries and and pre primary activity. That's that's good for

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Speaker 11: candidates who have to generate a lot of name I D.

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Speaker 11: Because it's just going to move fast and and they're

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Speaker 11: going to be left behind him. There will be incredible

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Speaker 11: pressure to consolidate this field by the end of this year.

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Speaker 11: And these are the kinds of candidates who are going

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Speaker 11: to fall under that pressure.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, the first Republican presidential debate will be on August

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Speaker 4: twenty third. Do either of you think Donald Trump will

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Speaker 4: be there? I don't think you do, Rick.

437
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 11: Right, Yeah, from my perspective, he'd be nuts to go there.

438
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 11: I mean, you know, why set yourself up. You're your

439
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 11: twenty points ahead of the nearest competitor in the field

440
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 11: or a national basis, you want to give him a

441
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 11: forum to take shots at you. There's no downside to

442
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,120
Speaker 11: it for Donald Trump. Everybody will complain, But like even

443
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 11: this weekend, nobody really took hard shots at Donald Trump

444
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 11: and he didn't attend the Ryde and Roast, So why

445
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 11: put yourself at risk? Maybe he's the kind of guy

446
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 11: who just likes to mix it up. I don't know.

447
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 4: Same for you, Genie. You expect to see Donald Trump

448
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 4: on August twenty third?

449
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 12: You know, I hope to see him on August twenty third.

450
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,719
Speaker 12: I don't expect to. But the problem for these candidates

451
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 12: is going to be qualifying. I mean, forty thousand campaign

452
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 12: donors individual they have to qualify with plus the better

453
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 12: than one the points most of them have right now

454
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 12: in the series of qualifying polls. So it's still an

455
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 12: i'll pill batter for some of them to be able

456
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 12: to get there. And you know, if we look at

457
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 12: the history of Iowa, you know it is confounding to

458
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 12: people outside Iowa because it has not been a good

459
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 12: marker of who's going to get the nomination. You look

460
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 12: to await, which Rick knows well, you looked to twelve,

461
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 12: you look to sixteen and contested caucuses. The winners of

462
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 12: the Iowa caucus have not gone on to win the nomination.

463
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 12: So the amount of time these candidates spend there is

464
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 12: absolutely baffling to people outside politics, who wonder what all

465
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 12: the fuss is about when their prediction rate is like

466
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 12: less than forty five percent.

467
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 4: Well, I've got another one for you, Jeanie. Hang on,

468
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 4: this one could actually have Democrats in the sites here.

469
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 4: Let's see how.

470
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 7: We do this.

471
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 4: I want to make sure I do this right. Well,

472
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 4: that's actually all right. Stand by Cornell West announces today

473
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 4: his run for the People's Party. Is this the Ralph

474
00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 4: Nader of this administration? Or a non story? Genie?

475
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 12: I think it probably in the end will be a

476
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 12: non story. It hurts me personally to say that he's

477
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 12: a former professor, he's an absolutely fascinating man. He's a

478
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 12: great scholar. You know, he's going to get us, try

479
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 12: to get his message out there. But the danger, of course,

480
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 12: is is Kyle talked about that he ends up taking

481
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 12: you in a close election a few votes from where

482
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 12: people who support him would want it to be in

483
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 12: the end, and that is likely with Joe Biden. So

484
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 12: that is the danger. But he's going to get out

485
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 12: there and he's going to try to make his case.

486
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 12: But you know, at this point, you know, historically these

487
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 12: third parties go absolutely nowhere. And you talked about no labels.

488
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 12: You know, Joe Manchin has long been talked about his

489
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,120
Speaker 12: potential nominee there. Yes, right, but you know he's probably

490
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 12: better off running in West Virginia where he's so far

491
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 12: behind in the poles at this point.

492
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 4: The question it was a creative announcer. What it sounds

493
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 4: like on the video.

494
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 7: In these bleak talks.

495
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 11: I have decided to run for Truth and Justice, which

496
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 11: takes the form of running for President of the United

497
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 11: States as the Cornell West.

498
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 4: Could we see some Republican money pour into that campaign

499
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 4: just to make a problem for Joe Biden Rick.

500
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 11: Yeah, I imagine some might fall off that table and

501
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 11: make their way into his campaign pocket. But at least

502
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 11: we're gonna have a groovy campaign out there. Really can

503
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 11: have some fun.

504
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 4: With Honestly, he's got the best music of all. This

505
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 4: is by the way, I checked. That's how much I

506
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 4: liked the Freedom Affairs. The name of the ban Genie.

507
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 4: The song is called Rise Up. If that's all we

508
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 4: get out of this announcement, I'm calling that a win.

509
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 12: It is a win. I am picturing us all, you know,

510
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 12: wear in our leather jackets and enjoying it. Very groovy.

511
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's how well that's going to

512
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 4: play in Iowa. That the leather jackets, it's a whole

513
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 4: other thing.

514
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 1: I'm not sure.

515
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 4: Rick and Jeannie stay with us. Great to spend time

516
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 4: with our friends after the weekend as we tackle another

517
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 4: tough one coming up next. That's the situation in Ukraine

518
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 4: as we count down to the so called spring offensive,

519
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 4: it's feeling more like a summer offensive. And the handshake

520
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 4: herd round the world. But I guess for all the

521
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 4: wrong reasons. As the Secretary of Defense makes his way

522
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 4: to the Shangrilage, see this the handshake with the Chinese

523
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 4: resulted in no new optimism.

524
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast Catch us

525
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at one Eastern on.

526
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app.

527
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 3: Where listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

528
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 4: A warning from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to China.

529
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 4: Even after shaking hands with China's Defense minister at the

530
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 4: Shangri La dialogue over the weekend, not a lot to

531
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 4: show for that handshake. More tough rhetoric coming from Beijing,

532
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 4: China's decision to come dangerously close to a US destroyer

533
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 4: in the Taiwan Strait and reaction from the Secretary of Defense.

534
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 13: The whole world has a stake in maintaining peace and

535
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:46,479
Speaker 13: stability in a Taiwan Strait.

536
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 7: A whole world.

537
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,719
Speaker 13: The security of commercial shipping lanes and global supply chains

538
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 13: depend on depends on it, and so does freedom of

539
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 13: navigation worldwide, worldwide.

540
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:00,080
Speaker 7: But make no.

541
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 13: Mistake, conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be.

542
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 4: Devastating, devastating indeed, and I can't think that many would

543
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 4: argue with that. Let's reassemble the panel Rick Davis, Genie

544
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 4: Shanzano or with us as we focus abroad here for

545
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 4: a few moments. China has rebuffed requests for a meeting

546
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:23,640
Speaker 4: between Austin and his Chinese counterpart. They shook hands at

547
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 4: this conference, Rick, who breaks the ice here in this

548
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 4: relationship because the videos we're seeing jets coming too close

549
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 4: cutting off the destroyer. At some point we're going to

550
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 4: have an accident here.

551
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's a disturbing situation where these two leaders of

552
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 11: their independent defense industries aren't able to spend ten minutes

553
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 11: past a handshake, just putting together a communications format that

554
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 11: will ensure that there aren't potential problems that would result

555
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 11: in a conflict. And I can only attribute that to

556
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 11: the Chinese lack of interest in doing so, because certainly

557
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 11: Secretary of Austin has made it very clear that he's

558
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 11: prepared to do that, and even while they're there, as

559
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 11: you mentioned earlier, the near misses that are occurring both

560
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 11: in the air and on the sea between two competing

561
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 11: navies and air forces are exactly the scenario that you

562
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 11: need this communication for. I would say the one you

563
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 11: know positive as we've learned that CIA director, you know,

564
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 11: William Burns did meet with his counterpart both in China

565
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 11: and as part of the Shanghai dialogue, So at least

566
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 11: there's communication on the intelligence side that will help foster

567
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 11: that kind of community, you know, conflicts avoidance.

568
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 4: This isn't coming easily here, Genie. What does the Biden

569
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 4: administration need to do differently?

570
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 12: Yeah, it's really pective, perplexing because we're getting some really

571
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 12: mixed signals. I mean, we heard Biden at the G

572
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 12: seven talking about, you know, he was seemed mildly optimistic

573
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 12: and hopeful that thing we're going to you know, sort

574
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 12: of revert after the balloon incident, and yet we've not

575
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 12: seen that, and of course the tension ratcheted up by

576
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 12: these two recent incidents. I think for the Biden administration,

577
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 12: they have to keep pushing to try to keep talks

578
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 12: going as much as they can. Certainly, China is willing

579
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 12: to meet on economic issues. You know, we talked about

580
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 12: Jamie Diamond being over there. We talked about Elon Musk

581
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 12: obviously not US officials, but certainly over there meeting with

582
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 12: Chinese officials talking about economic issues. So they've got to

583
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 12: push there. They've got to try to keep the channels

584
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 12: open on diplomatic issues and hope that they can push

585
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 12: the door open on the security end of things so

586
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 12: that if there is an incident, God forbid, they do

587
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 12: have a channel of communication open in which to ratchet

588
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 12: it down tensions. You know, it does seem that China

589
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 12: is still pushing and that they feel very strongly that

590
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 12: their interest in Taiwan and in that area is much

591
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 12: stronger than ours, and they will go to the map

592
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 12: for it and we may not. At least that's their hope.

593
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 12: I don't think that's the fact, but that seems to

594
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 12: be their hope.

595
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 7: Well.

596
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 4: And we're having this conversation as the counter offensive appears

597
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 4: to be getting underway for real in Ukraine. Russia and

598
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 4: Ukraine both reporting widespread fighting along the war's front lines,

599
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 4: with anticipation mounting for Ukraine to make a big move here.

600
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 4: We heard about it from General Mark Milly this morning,

601
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 4: who is talking to CNN about the readiness, the level

602
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 4: of preparedness for Ukraine's military.

603
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 14: I think it's too early to tell what outcomes are

604
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 14: going to happen. I think the Ukrainians are very well prepared,

605
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 14: as you know very well. The United States and other

606
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 14: allied countries in Europe and really around the world have

607
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 14: provided training and ammunition and advice, intelligence, etc.

608
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 7: To the Ukrainians.

609
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 4: We spent a lot of time talking about hardware that

610
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 4: they may or may not need, rick whether there's training

611
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 4: they may or may not need. To the General's point,

612
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 4: they're certainly getting the intelligence they need from the US.

613
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 4: Does Ukraine have what it needs to wage this counter offensive?

614
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 11: Well, I think it's more the question is when does

615
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 11: the counter offensive start and what the strategy will be

616
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 11: behind it, because they are going they are going to

617
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 11: launch a counter offensive with the weapons and the manpower

618
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 11: that they have. This has been a long time in coming.

619
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 4: These soldiers that.

620
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 11: Will hit the front have been going through extensive training

621
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 11: both in and out of the country. They do have

622
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 11: new weapons, an integrated system that they didn't have before,

623
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 11: where they have you know, tanks and armored personnel carriers

624
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 11: and drones, you know, and support from the air that

625
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 11: they otherwise didn't have. So it's going to be a

626
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 11: different kind of war that's taken to the Russians in

627
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 11: the battlefield as soon as this spring offensive is launched,

628
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 11: and we'll see whether or not the Russians have the

629
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 11: capacity both with manpower and systems and strategy to repulse it,

630
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 11: because what's coming at of now they have not yet seen.

631
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, well that's something to say as we now enter. Well,

632
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 4: I guess now that we are in June is the

633
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 4: sixteenth month of this genie, and Adam ra Putin's not

634
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 4: waiting around. He continues to shoot missiles, specifically at civilian areas,

635
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 4: targeting apartment buildings, people's homes. The stories that we read

636
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 4: on a regular basis here have not slowed down at all.

637
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 12: They have not, and the civilian casualty rate is high,

638
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 12: and he has shown no interest in ending that. And

639
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 12: I would also say we are starting to see some

640
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 12: signs that people are calling for a diplomatic solution more

641
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 12: and more. I would note Foreign Affairs has a peace

642
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 12: out today called an Unwinnable War and the jucks I mean,

643
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 12: it's a long piece, but the juxta, you know, the

644
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 12: sort of nugget of it is is that the US

645
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 12: has to push for a diplomatic solution because this war

646
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 12: is going to go on and not end. And that

647
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 12: is of course what Russia has been hoping for, that

648
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 12: the US would sort of lose steam, native would lose

649
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 12: steam support would you know, sort of die out, and

650
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 12: then they would not be they would be able to

651
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 12: really confront Ukraine without the support of NATO. So you know,

652
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 12: those signs are starting to be there, and that is

653
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 12: a really dangerous moment. That's why I think when Zelenski

654
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 12: gave the address at Johns Hopkins the other day, the

655
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 12: commencement address, which was very you know, the students were

656
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 12: very excited about, he said, the most important thing you

657
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 12: have is time, and he needs time to fight this

658
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 12: and he needs support, and that is a question of

659
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 12: whether he's going to get that going forward.

660
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 4: Russia's Defense ministry says naval tactical groups began operational exercises

661
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 4: in the Baltic Sea and we'll run through June fifteenth.

662
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 4: Forty warships involved here, Rick, we only have thirty seconds.

663
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 4: Is this just posturing or the beginning of something?

664
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 10: No.

665
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 11: I think that, you know, it's a show of force,

666
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 11: it's an effort to try, and you know Galvani's public

667
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 11: opinion around their capabilities, and you know, we'll see whether

668
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 11: or not anybody buys into it.

669
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 4: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzana with some final thoughts. Next

670
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 4: on the fastest show in politics. It's going by today.

671
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 4: This is what happens.

672
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 3: To the Bloomberg Sound on podcast.

673
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

674
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

675
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 7: The Bloomberg Business App.

676
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

677
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

678
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 4: Don't believe everything you hear in the US House. I'm

679
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 4: not referring to talking points or political posturing. Case in point,

680
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 4: this day nineteen ninety eight, when the Associated Press accidentally

681
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 4: ran an oh bit it's not a good move for

682
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 4: legendary entertainer Bob Hope, and no one thought to check

683
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 4: on that. Before Congressman Bob Stump took to the floor,

684
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 4: he was introduced by then Majority Leader Dick Arms.

685
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 3: Gentleman from Michigan would be willing to yield time to

686
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 3: the gentleman for Arizona for an announcement. I think it

687
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 3: will be a great interest to this spot.

688
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 7: I yield to my friend from Arizona's.

689
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 15: Just I think the gentlemen for healing miss speaker. I

690
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 15: have the sad responsibility to Teddy this afternoon that Bob

691
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 15: Hope passed away. For those people in a uniform from

692
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 15: the early days of World War Two through the go for,

693
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 15: no man or woman in uniform ever had a better

694
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,879
Speaker 15: friend than Bob Hope. Bob Hope always said he would

695
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 15: never stop entertaining. He said that as long as he

696
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 15: was able. I'm not retiring until they carry me away,

697
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 15: he said, And I'll have a few routines on the

698
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 15: way to the big divot. Well, they all missed him

699
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 15: very much, and as you know, we honored him just recently.

700
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,720
Speaker 15: Was the first time in the history of this country

701
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 15: that we made an honorary veteran. That took place here

702
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 15: in the rod Touna, the capital.

703
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 4: And we're all going to miss him.

704
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 12: And I thank the gentlemen for you.

705
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 4: We look, Bob Hope was very much alive, his daughter said.

706
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 4: The phone started ringing off the hook at their house

707
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 4: and touluk a lake. There's no truth in it, she said.

708
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 4: Quote Dad is at home having his breakfast at this point,

709
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 4: he is fine. Unquote. Of course, he would move to

710
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 4: live several more years before passing. In two thousand and three,

711
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 4: Rick and Jeanie with a minute left, who checks on

712
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 4: this stuff, Rick, when a member of the House decides

713
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 4: to run to the floor with an announcement.

714
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 11: Well, it's a lot easier to fact check now than

715
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 11: it was then because of the Internet and Google. But

716
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 11: it is a classic Samuel clements. You know, reports of

717
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 11: my death are greatly exaggerated. I mean, how many times

718
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 11: have we seen that use? So mistakes will always be

719
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 11: made on the floor of the Senate and the House.

720
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 4: That's a big one, it sure was. But imagine being

721
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 4: alive to witness a moment like that while they're talking

722
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 4: about Eugenie.

723
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 12: That's right, and I love The New York Times had

724
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 12: a headline, Oops, Bob Hope is not dead, and that

725
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 12: was It's pretty much summarized it. And of course you

726
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,439
Speaker 12: can't even blame the members on the floor. It's really

727
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 12: the press.

728
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,399
Speaker 4: You're here, Yeah, I guess that's right. This ap started it,

729
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 4: Rick and Jeanie, thanks for a great talk. Hour or

730
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,839
Speaker 4: two of sound On starts right now.

731
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

732
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

733
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

734
00:35:59,120 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 2: Business App.

735
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 3: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcast hour.

736
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 4: Two now, which means Kaylee Lines joins us. I'm Joe

737
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 4: Matthew in Washington as we raise the curtain on the

738
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:14,240
Speaker 4: twenty twenty four campaign. Of course, the cycle's long underway here, Kayley,

739
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 4: it's good to see you. But we're adding a whole

740
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 4: bunch of names this week, starting with one today.

741
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, and not just anyone, of course, a former vice

742
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 6: president to the leading Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Mike

743
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 6: Pence is officially in the race. Hasn't done the whole

744
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 6: announcement yet, but he did file today.

745
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 4: Stuff that counts. He filed the paperwork following a weekend

746
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 4: in Iowa. We talked about this with the panel last hour.

747
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 4: Everyone weighed in on the leather vest yep Rick Davis

748
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 4: thought it worked, showing a different side to Mike Pence,

749
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 4: though he may want to practice that a little bit.

750
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 4: He of course, was there with many other candidates who

751
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 4: have who have declared for the the Roast and Ride

752
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 4: or is it the ride and roast put together by

753
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 4: Joni or Yeah, here we go. This is the good stuff.

754
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 5: It is great to be back at the Roast and Ride.

755
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 5: D I rode and I roasted on the ride.

756
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 4: I just love that line. I just think that's so great.

757
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 4: And of course Tim Scott was there as well. He

758
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 4: knows how to start a rally. I mean we saw

759
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 4: it's at the campaign announcement. He's sticking with the same music.

760
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:27,359
Speaker 7: Here is the best.

761
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 4: Come on. Yes, Nikki Haley was there as well, along

762
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,240
Speaker 4: with Rhonda Santis, who's been coming out to country music.

763
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 6: There's who wasn't which is Donald Trump?

764
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 4: That's correct, And a lot of questions about whether he

765
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 4: might even appear on a debate stage when they all

766
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 4: come together twenty third of August. Now new criteria from

767
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 4: the RNC on the qualifiers to get on stage. All

768
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:01,399
Speaker 4: of this informing our conversation with Mick mulvaney should bring

769
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 4: him in now, I think we should think he's here. Hey, Mick,

770
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 4: welcome back. You miss in Iowa or what?

771
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 3: No?

772
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 7: No?

773
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 8: I love Iowa.

774
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 10: It's got two under the seasons, the winter and the

775
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 10: fourth of July, and I look forward to being there

776
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 10: on the.

777
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 7: Fourth of July.

778
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:19,399
Speaker 4: Okay, very good. How did Mike Pence do after looking

779
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 4: at him over the course of the weekend. You know,

780
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 4: Mike Pen's better than most people will ever and he's

781
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 4: just made to drop the paperwork to make this official, Mick,

782
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 4: and you can't.

783
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 10: Everybody who knows Mike Pence likes Mike Pence because he's

784
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 10: just one again, He's just he's a great guy. And

785
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 10: I don't blame him for running for president. I just

786
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 10: don't don't yet to see what Mike's lane is. He's remember,

787
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 10: he's in a unique situation. He's the only Republican candidate

788
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 10: not named Trump that the Maga people hate. Okay, I

789
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 10: mean it's just the the Maga people will accept Rondes

790
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 10: Sante's if he beats Trump, they might accept him Scott,

791
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 10: but they really really don't like Mike Pence. And he's

792
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 10: got that's an uphill battle for him to and it's

793
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 10: a really hard thing to do, especially when your personality

794
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 10: is as nice as he is, because it's sort of

795
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 10: be hard to take people on.

796
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 6: Well, when we're talking about what you're referring to as

797
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 6: the mag of people. Realistically, that's what thirty percent of

798
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 6: the Republican Party.

799
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 10: I think that's fair.

800
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, And so he can't claim that other seventy percent.

801
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:18,839
Speaker 6: Doesn't someone have.

802
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 10: To he's fighting with. Keep in mind if Ron Desanta

803
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 10: starts to move up. I think it's it's easier for

804
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 10: him to start peeling off some Trump voters because they

805
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 10: might perceive him as a reasonable substitute. I think it's

806
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 10: really really hard for Mike Pence to peel anybody away

807
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 10: for Donald Trump. So he's not fighting over one hundred

808
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 10: percent of the field. He's fighting over seventy, whereas everybody

809
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,439
Speaker 10: else is fighting over one hundred. It's just a difficult lane.

810
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 10: If I'm a conservative, pro life voter in Iowa looking

811
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 10: for a really good person to support, give me. Tell

812
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 10: me why I'm going to Mike Penson, not Tim Scott.

813
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 10: That's what I happened figured out.

814
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,800
Speaker 4: Well, surely he knows all of this, right, does Mike Penson?

815
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,959
Speaker 4: I'm asking this seriously. Does he feel like he's doing

816
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 4: God's work, like he's motivated by God as he says?

817
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 4: Or is this to set up a run for four

818
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 4: years from now?

819
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 10: Maybe you know some people When some people say that,

820
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 10: you know that the Lord told them to run for office.

821
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 10: There it's it's not real, right. I can count on

822
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 10: one hand a number of people who tell me that,

823
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 10: and I would absolutely believe it. And Mike is one

824
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 10: of those that would He's not exactly, He's not for show.

825
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 10: That's really him. He and his wife when they say

826
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 10: they went home and pray about it, they prayed about it.

827
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 10: That's the kind of folks. They are. So no it might.

828
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 10: You know, you could make the arguments four years now,

829
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 10: make the arguments of TV program or selling books or whatever.

830
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: Now.

831
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 10: I think Mike is one hundred percent sincere in what

832
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 10: he's trying to do well.

833
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 6: And of course, you know, we've characterized him as having

834
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 6: to compete with his the former president. He served as

835
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,919
Speaker 6: vice president for Donald Trump with Ron DeSantis. But really,

836
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 6: by the end of this week, we're going to be

837
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 6: looking at a Republican primary field. If I believe eleven candidates,

838
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 6: it's getting more and more crowded. Chris Christy, the former

839
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 6: governor of New Jersey, is expected to make his announcement tomorrow.

840
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 6: I know you spend some time with him recently. Is

841
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 6: his case any different than Pence? Does he have a

842
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 6: lane here?

843
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:02,479
Speaker 16: Yeah?

844
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,319
Speaker 10: I really do, And I really think that this after

845
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 10: the Big Four, and in my mind big four are Trump,

846
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:10,720
Speaker 10: the Santist, Tim Scott, and Nicky Haley for variety of reasons.

847
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 10: After the Big Four, the most interesting entry in the

848
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 10: Race of My Mind is is Chris Christie's assuming he

849
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 10: couts in tomorrow, as is widely expected to do. I

850
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 10: don't think if he knows he can beat Donald Trump,

851
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,879
Speaker 10: but he's gonna try and take him out. He does

852
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 10: believe that he knows Donald Trump better than anybody else,

853
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 10: and then he can fight with Trump on his own terms,

854
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 10: and I think he might be right. Remember one of

855
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 10: the reasons Jeff Bush couldn't punch back at Trump and

856
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,479
Speaker 10: Marco Rubio could and they all look so ham fister

857
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 10: when they're doing is it's not their personality, right, right?

858
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 10: This is Chris Christie's personality. He wants to fight with

859
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 10: Donald Trump and it's gonna be fun to watch.

860
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 4: It's been suggested. I believe it was Lisa camussa miller

861
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 4: who used to work with Chris Christy and she's frequently

862
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 4: a Republican analyst on this program, that there would be

863
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,720
Speaker 4: no Donald Trump without Chris Christie, that he was actually

864
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 4: the original character. To your point there, Mick, so is

865
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 4: he then the kamikaze candidate as has been described, just

866
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 4: there to knock down Donald Trump and then I'll go

867
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 4: home and go back to New Jersey or is he

868
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 4: in this to win the nomination.

869
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 10: Well, I think everybody's in it to win it, right

870
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 10: For the most part, I think some of them are

871
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 10: buying for vice presidential spot. I don't think Asa Hutchinson

872
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 10: really thinks he can win. But Chris Christy is a

873
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 10: real deal, right, I mean ten years ago, this was

874
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 10: a guy who was sort of a cutting edge of

875
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 10: the new conser winging the party. So I certainly think

876
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 10: he's got it. But he's also got a pitch, right,

877
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 10: which is, Look, if you support Tim Scott, support me

878
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 10: a little bit, If you support Nicky Haley, support me

879
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 10: a little bit, because I'm the one who could go

880
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,839
Speaker 10: take out Trump and maybe your person could do better.

881
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 10: And that's a compelling sales pitch when you got to

882
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 10: raise a bunch of money to run for presidents. I

883
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 10: think I think it's the most interesting entry, no sense

884
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,240
Speaker 10: to be fron Mike Pence. I think Chris Christie's entrance,

885
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 10: entrance to the race has a lot more potential to

886
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 10: change things than Mike Pence's done.

887
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 6: It's really interesting. And Mick, I want to go back

888
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,720
Speaker 6: to something you just said about the Big four being Trump,

889
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:52,320
Speaker 6: DeSantis Scott and Hailey. I think a lot of people,

890
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,319
Speaker 6: when looking at the polling would think it's, you know,

891
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 6: one massive out front, another big and Ron DeSantis, and

892
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:01,439
Speaker 6: then Scott and Haley really aren't really registering that much.

893
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,879
Speaker 6: Why do you think that they're they're bigger contenders here.

894
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 10: It has to do with lanes and what they're pitching.

895
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 10: They're pitching something different.

896
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 7: Right.

897
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 10: The Santas is going head to head on Trump. He's

898
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 10: the you know, I'm Trump without the hush money to

899
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,760
Speaker 10: the payments took porn stars, right, I'm the younger Trump.

900
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 10: Nicki Haley not only generational difference, but first woman, neo

901
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 10: conservative foreign policy, you know, pretty good on some of

902
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 10: the issues. She's got that. And then of course Tim

903
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 10: Scott is preaching something that that you know, the Republicans

904
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 10: haven't done for a long time, which is positivism and

905
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 10: optimism and so forth. So there's there's different lanes for

906
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 10: those folks. That's why I see them as the four likely.

907
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 10: I guess if Christy gets in, he's in the same

908
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 10: lane as Trump and Desantas, and again, there'll be fabulous

909
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 10: to watch. Keep in mind, by the way, at debates,

910
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:49,280
Speaker 10: you guys talked about that before the RNC. Chris Christie

911
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 10: played Joe Biden for Donald Trump in the twenty sixteen

912
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 10: and twenty twenty races. Donald Trump is afraid to death

913
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 10: to debate Chris Christie. He knows he's better than he is.

914
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:01,760
Speaker 10: He knows he's better than he is. To be fascinating

915
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 10: to watch the dynamic if Chris actually does get in

916
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:05,800
Speaker 10: the race and qualifies those debates.

917
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure. The new criteria here is interesting. I

918
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 4: wonder your thoughts on this, mich and whether Donald Trump

919
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 4: even shows up, because he's suggesting that he may not.

920
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 4: For starters here and now it's going to be difficult

921
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 4: for some of these candidates, including Chris Christy, to get

922
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 4: on stage here. Right, you need at least one percent

923
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 4: support in three national polls or what is it, one

924
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,319
Speaker 4: percent in two national polls and one percent in early

925
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 4: state poles. Then there's the matter of donors. What's the

926
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 4: stage look like?

927
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 10: And then I think he's still going to have the

928
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 10: pledge that says you have to that's right, what the

929
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 10: ultimate Republican candidate And that could be problematic for Trump

930
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 10: because no one's going to believe him in and he

931
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 10: says yes, because he won't do it. And number two,

932
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 10: several of them have come out. I think Chris Christy

933
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 10: has come out and said he won't support Trump if

934
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 10: he's the nominee. So you do have that dynamic as

935
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 10: to whether I even get on the stage. So yeah,

936
00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 10: this is going to be a long time to shake

937
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 10: it out. Look, Ronald mcdanie's got her hands full going

938
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 10: into this election cycle and believing the debates in August

939
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 10: are just the beginning of the challenges they face.

940
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 6: As we talk about Donald Trump here in Washington, we

941
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 6: were all a buzz this morning as his attorneys were

942
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 6: in a meeting at the Department of Justice. We're all

943
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 6: bracing to see if another indictment maybe coming down related

944
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:21,879
Speaker 6: to the documents or I believe what Trump might now

945
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 6: be referring to as some boxes. Would another indictment have

946
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 6: the same kind of impact as what we saw in

947
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 6: New York, where massive fundraising opportunity actually arguably works in

948
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 6: his favor, Or does another one knock him down a notch.

949
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 10: It depends, it really does. And I know that sounds

950
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 10: like I'm punting, but here's what I think. It depends on.

951
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 10: The Manhattan thing helped Trump because it was just so

952
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:45,399
Speaker 10: facially weak that even his critics like myself and even

953
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 10: Democrats were coming to his defense because it was such

954
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 10: a weak case. If the documents case, let's call it,

955
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 10: that is similarly weak, I think it has a similar

956
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 10: impact because it looks like it's politically motivated and that

957
00:45:56,320 --> 00:46:00,240
Speaker 10: helps Trump. That being said, I think that the the

958
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 10: weight of the document case will not depend on Donald

959
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 10: Trump's behavior. I think they're probably going to get him

960
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 10: dead to rights on hiding stuff or you know, not

961
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 10: knowing he had it when he was supposed to have

962
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,280
Speaker 10: had it or not and not be classifying, et cetera.

963
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 10: I think it's going to come down to the nature

964
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 10: of the documents. That's what people really care about. If

965
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,439
Speaker 10: he had stuff that was really really important and really

966
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 10: really nasty, If it gets that and the public are

967
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 10: being used for some reason, that could actually hurt him.

968
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 10: If it's you know, another list of documents that happened

969
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 10: to be classified that nobody cares about. Keep in mind,

970
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 10: the menus for the foreign state dinners were classified at

971
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 10: a certain level. If it's that kind of low level stuff,

972
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 10: then it's just going to help him.

973
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 1: Again.

974
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 4: His supporters won't spend time to tell the difference though, right,

975
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 4: I mean, once we got through what they saw as

976
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 4: the corrupt Manhattan DA, every other case is going to

977
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 4: be spun in that fashion.

978
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 10: Yeah, let me give you the extreme case. Okay, And

979
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 10: I don't believe this for a second, But if this

980
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:51,279
Speaker 10: turns out to be the case, is this is why

981
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 10: they spend all the time and the money investigating him.

982
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:58,760
Speaker 10: If he had sensitive American military information, sensitive military information

983
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 10: about another country and was showing it to people who

984
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,359
Speaker 10: would be in a position to benefit from that one

985
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 10: way or the other. Yea, he's not going to lose

986
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 10: all of his supporters, but there's step back. That's exactly right.

987
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 10: Now we're talking serious stuff.

988
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:11,399
Speaker 17: Now.

989
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 10: It's not just it's would he have been charged if

990
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,720
Speaker 10: his last name wasn't Donald Trump? I think that's the metric,

991
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 10: and that's what wait to see if they do indetem well.

992
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 6: And in theory, Joe. Related to the classified documents issue,

993
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 6: this has not been a uniquely Trump problem, also surrounding Pence,

994
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 6: who also is getting into the race now and the

995
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 6: current sitting president. And I just wonder, Mick, you know

996
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 6: what that level of kind of it being not just

997
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 6: an exclusive Trump issue. The fact that there are other

998
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 6: figures who it could point to and say, hey, what

999
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:47,319
Speaker 6: about them? How that might make a difference here.

1000
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 10: It could keep on Pence. I think I cleared this week.

1001
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,359
Speaker 10: I haven't heard much about Biden, but again, they both did.

1002
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 10: Both Pence and Biden did what I think you're supposed

1003
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 10: to do in the circumstances, which is say, I paid

1004
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 10: somebody to go and investigate. They found the stops, hear

1005
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 10: my documents back. I took them, but I didn't do

1006
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 10: anything other than that. Keep in mind, it's so often

1007
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:08,439
Speaker 10: in politics as in life, right, it's not the crime,

1008
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 10: it's the cover up. And Pence didn't do that, and

1009
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 10: Biden didn't do that as best as we can tell

1010
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 10: right now. And the charges may well include, you know,

1011
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:18,800
Speaker 10: when it comes to not just taking the documents, keeping

1012
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 10: them when he should not have. I'm talking about Trump

1013
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 10: now that it's going to be that obstruction of justice

1014
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,240
Speaker 10: charge that we worry about so much in this business.

1015
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:28,399
Speaker 10: It's not the crime, it's the cover up that they

1016
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 10: finally get you on.

1017
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 4: We'll drop another name on you here, Mick, as we

1018
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 4: consider the campaign cycle, and maybe we'll we'll wrap on

1019
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 4: this Chris Sinunu says he's not running, of course the

1020
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,919
Speaker 4: governor of New Hampshire. I don't know if he would

1021
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 4: have made a dent. That's a conversation for another day.

1022
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 4: But he wrote a not bad in the Washington Post.

1023
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 4: Who announce this, I will have more credibility speaking out

1024
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 4: against Trump as a non candidate to help move the

1025
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:53,479
Speaker 4: conversation toward the future. I believe the Republican Party should

1026
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 4: embrace Chris san Unu endeavoring to stop Trump. What does

1027
00:48:57,280 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 4: that mean for the campaign?

1028
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 10: Not much other than in New Hampshire. I think that's

1029
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 10: that's the only reason anybody cares about this. I mean,

1030
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 10: if A'SA Hutchinson had put out a statement saying he's

1031
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:08,360
Speaker 10: not running for president, no one would care, right because

1032
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 10: it's Arkansas. But with Snoodu saying this, what that means

1033
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 10: is he's going to try and maybe, I don't know,

1034
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 10: team up with somebody like Chris Christie to attack Trump

1035
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:19,799
Speaker 10: in his home state. I don't think voters in South

1036
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 10: Carolina cara second at about christin nudo, but they will

1037
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 10: in New Hampshire. So that's an interesting dynamic.

1038
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 4: Wow, that's going to be something to watch well. We're

1039
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:28,799
Speaker 4: gonna have to start traveling soon.

1040
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 7: What are you.

1041
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 4: When's the next time you're in Io? Are you serious

1042
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 4: about the fourth of July?

1043
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 7: Uh?

1044
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 10: No, I try not. But for some reason they keep

1045
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 10: having elections in the winter time there, which makes it

1046
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 10: a real thing of money.

1047
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 4: How that works? Yeah, Well, we'll bump into you, I hope,

1048
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 4: in one of these early states. Maybe we'll meet you

1049
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 4: in Manchester. Mcmulvaney, former OMB director, former acting Everything he

1050
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 4: was acting chief of Staff the White House, co founder

1051
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,239
Speaker 4: of course, the House. Freedom cauc Is, former member of

1052
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 4: Congress South Carolina is fifth Kaylee. Always an interesting conversation.

1053
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 4: We do this every week here on this broadcast, and.

1054
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 6: By the time we have this conversation next week, the

1055
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:03,840
Speaker 6: field may be more.

1056
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 11: Bigger, free more.

1057
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 4: Well, we got one official if you're just joining us.

1058
00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 4: Mike Pants drops the paperwork. Three more to go this week,

1059
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:13,359
Speaker 4: including Chris Christy tomorrow. As we turn next to the

1060
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 4: Opex surprise cut on sound on This is Bloomberg.

1061
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

1062
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

1063
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.

1064
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:28,800
Speaker 7: And the Bloomberg Business App.

1065
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

1066
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:36,280
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

1067
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 4: A surprise cut is the headline, though I don't know

1068
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 4: how we found that out when all the reporters were

1069
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 4: kicked out of the room. But of course this is

1070
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 4: OPAK now and we are watching oil prices at Kaylee

1071
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 4: Lines following an interesting weekend for the oil ministers here.

1072
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, a surprise is right, and it's surprising in two ways.

1073
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,239
Speaker 6: One that is a cut, but two that the cut

1074
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 6: is coming exclusively from one country, Saudi Arabia. An extra

1075
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 6: one million barrels of a day in production being slashed

1076
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 6: in July, clearly trying to support oil prices. And what's interesting, Joe,

1077
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 6: is that you aren't necessarily seeing it have the impact

1078
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:15,840
Speaker 6: we thought it would. At the open of the session,

1079
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:18,919
Speaker 6: Brent price is spike five percent. We're now up nine

1080
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,720
Speaker 6: tenths of a percent. Yeah, seventy six eighty four a barrel.

1081
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 6: I'm guessing that wasn't exactly what Abdulazi's been someone was

1082
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:25,799
Speaker 6: going for.

1083
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 4: WTI is up less than a dollar a barrel right now,

1084
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 4: one percent below seventy three. Still, I don't know how

1085
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:34,319
Speaker 4: far that's gone today, but they were hoping for a

1086
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 4: little bit more of a reaction here as we want.

1087
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 4: My goodness, it's June. This is the summer driving season.

1088
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it's of course a very different summer driving

1089
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:45,759
Speaker 6: season than we were dealing with this time last year.

1090
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 6: I mean, it was June last year when we saw

1091
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 6: the average price at the pump in the US above

1092
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,920
Speaker 6: five dollars a barrel. And obviously we're living in a

1093
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 6: very different world now where we are worried about demand

1094
00:51:57,040 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 6: if we're heading into a recession, and therefore you know

1095
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 6: they're trying to restrict supply in order to offset some

1096
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:03,839
Speaker 6: of that. It's just a question of whether that's going

1097
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 6: to work.

1098
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 4: So we're talking a million barrels a day, another million

1099
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 4: barrels a day. WTI, by the way, was up as

1100
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 4: much as five percent following the announcement. It's up just

1101
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 4: one percent now, just for a little more context here,

1102
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 4: And so we have a lot of questions about what

1103
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 4: went into this, why it was a surprise to so

1104
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 4: many people, and frankly, the access issue was one I

1105
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,840
Speaker 4: know that not everybody is concerned about reporters getting in

1106
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 4: the room here. But this is how we learn about

1107
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 4: this stuff, Kayley, and the transparency was a problem.

1108
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, including for Bloomberg News journalists. I believe a number

1109
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:38,800
Speaker 6: of organizations were kind of cut out of the picture

1110
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 6: here going into this.

1111
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 4: So we want to spend some time with Clay to

1112
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 4: get a sense of this. He's with Rapidan Energy Group,

1113
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 4: Clay Siegel, the Global Oil Service Director And I wonder

1114
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 4: your thoughts when you saw the headline role here, Clay,

1115
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,839
Speaker 4: and it seems to be having no impact.

1116
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 16: Hey, Joe and Kayley, thanks for having me. Good to

1117
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 16: be with you, Thanks for being here well as you know,

1118
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 16: I mean, these guys play a medium and long term

1119
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:07,680
Speaker 16: game and are not going to be focused too much

1120
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:10,480
Speaker 16: on the first day of trading inter day moves that

1121
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 16: y'all were reporting just now. But with that said, of course,

1122
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 16: their goal is to stabilize the oil market as they

1123
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:21,280
Speaker 16: see in their interests. And what's really interesting a couple

1124
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:25,800
Speaker 16: of takeaways from this, but it's constructive for the group's

1125
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 16: just unity and their market influence that they extended their

1126
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 16: supply cooperation deal through twenty twenty four. They previewed some

1127
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 16: tentative plans for twenty twenty five, and it's good that

1128
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 16: they kind of moved the visibility and the calendar on

1129
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 16: their deal out, I think, especially because, as y'all alluded

1130
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 16: to a minute ago, the rest of Oakpak Plus outside

1131
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 16: of Saudi Arabia just left its production targets unchanged yesterday,

1132
00:53:55,120 --> 00:54:00,280
Speaker 16: So impressing the market on its medium term commitments is

1133
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:03,839
Speaker 16: is good for OPEC's interests. There's quite a few loose

1134
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:06,840
Speaker 16: ends though, in these plans for the next couple of

1135
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:11,400
Speaker 16: years that we think will determine outcomes. They're gonna eventually

1136
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:16,480
Speaker 16: revise the production baseline volumes for many of the member states.

1137
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 16: That's going to be contentious, and getting some more solid

1138
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 16: numbers on Russia's compliance with it pledged cutbacks. So of

1139
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 16: course we're eager to learn about those details and analyze

1140
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:28,920
Speaker 16: them further.

1141
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 6: But when we're thinking about the signal here, is this

1142
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 6: a sign that we should be worried about demand as

1143
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 6: Saudi Arabia seeing something that maybe the rest of us

1144
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:38,879
Speaker 6: aren't privy to yet.

1145
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 16: Well, what we're really seeing is a test of wills

1146
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 16: between riad on one hand, and traders in the paper

1147
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 16: oil markets on the other hand. They many of them

1148
00:54:54,680 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 16: believe that fundamentals are going to be loose, either because

1149
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 16: opek plus won't come through with its pledged reductions and

1150
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 16: or because right oil demand won't grow as much as

1151
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 16: forecasters are expecting. This unilateral cut by Saudi Arabia would

1152
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:17,240
Speaker 16: take their output all the way down to nine million

1153
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:21,280
Speaker 16: barrels a day. That's the lowest I think sense about

1154
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 16: mid twenty one. But there's a lot of history here. Okay,

1155
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 16: I'm going to make it really concise. Saudi Arabia got

1156
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:33,280
Speaker 16: stuck in the nineteen eighties serving as the swing producer,

1157
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 16: and they gave up a tremendous amount of market share

1158
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 16: to defend price. And that's at the time when new

1159
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,400
Speaker 16: producers were kind of ramping up. There was a recession.

1160
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:46,439
Speaker 16: Now it was ultimately in vain. It didn't work out.

1161
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,520
Speaker 16: They had to throw in the towel and actually crash

1162
00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 16: prices to chase out the competition that they pledged to

1163
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 16: not play that role again in the future. And so

1164
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,880
Speaker 16: what they're trying to do in this case, guys, is

1165
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 16: they're trying to just shore up market center and chase

1166
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:04,879
Speaker 16: out some of those bearish short positions just until the

1167
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 16: macroeconomic clouds can clear, and those oil prices can move

1168
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:12,799
Speaker 16: higher as fundamentals tighten up later this year.

1169
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, Clay, it's funny you mentioned the shorts because Prince

1170
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:18,759
Speaker 6: Abdullah Dizas bid Salmon just said two weeks ago that

1171
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 6: the Shorts should be watching out Joe, and maybe this

1172
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 6: was him kind of signaling.

1173
00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 9: Yeah.

1174
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know. What's going on with Russia, is

1175
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:30,920
Speaker 4: my question for you, Clay That the Energy minister here

1176
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 4: says Russia would benefit from being transparent and publishing its

1177
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:37,959
Speaker 4: oil production data, remembering that Russia restricted that data last

1178
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 4: year due to what it called it's sensitive nature. Does

1179
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia not trust Russia here?

1180
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:47,840
Speaker 16: I think the message that they're sending that OPEC Plus

1181
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 16: as a whole is sending is more data. Transparency and

1182
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 16: visibility helps everyone and fosters more stable commodity markets, including

1183
00:56:57,680 --> 00:57:01,319
Speaker 16: oil markets. So the more reliable data the better. And

1184
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 16: we have, right some setbacks since the war and the

1185
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 16: invasion took place, and Russia's government is not publishing oil

1186
00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 16: production data like it used to. On the other hand,

1187
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:15,399
Speaker 16: we do have new data sources that are out there

1188
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:20,959
Speaker 16: that look at things like total world observable inventories, visible inventories,

1189
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 16: high frequency data on Russia's exports of crude and refined products.

1190
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 16: Those give us some pretty good proxies and pretty good

1191
00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 16: indicators about where things are headed. And what we can

1192
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 16: say is, even though exports are not a perfect substitute

1193
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 16: for production data, Russia's recent export volumes are clearly signaling

1194
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 16: that production is not turning down all the way in

1195
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:50,600
Speaker 16: line with complying with their pledge cutbacks. So more is

1196
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 16: needed on that front.

1197
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 5: Well.

1198
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 6: And as we talk about some of these individual companies

1199
00:57:55,720 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 6: or companies countries rather, how much power does opec Us

1200
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 6: and then more specifically within that Saudi Arabia have to

1201
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:07,280
Speaker 6: influence prices at this point because I understand that you know,

1202
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:08,960
Speaker 6: they're trying to play a long game in terms of

1203
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 6: supporting the market here. But this isn't the first cut

1204
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,360
Speaker 6: we have seen in the last twelve months, and none

1205
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 6: of those really seem to stick when it came to

1206
00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 6: price influence.

1207
00:58:18,840 --> 00:58:21,240
Speaker 16: It's true, and I think the best kind of analogy

1208
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:23,919
Speaker 16: that I'll use is it's sort of like a game

1209
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:27,320
Speaker 16: of tug of war, like the rope pole between teams.

1210
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 16: And again you've got readd and Opek plus on one

1211
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 16: hand that wants to get a hold of market sentiment

1212
00:58:35,040 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 16: and reinforce that they are going to deliver stability. But

1213
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:40,440
Speaker 16: on the other hand, and we see this in the

1214
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:43,320
Speaker 16: manage money positions, for example, in the commitment of traders

1215
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 16: from the CFTC is these shorts that are accumulating positions

1216
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 16: are sending a different signal, and they're really calling in

1217
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:56,400
Speaker 16: the question whether oil demand growth is going to be

1218
00:58:56,440 --> 00:59:00,120
Speaker 16: there the way. First of all, OPAK is forecasting, and

1219
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:04,520
Speaker 16: then on the consuming side, the International Energy Agency. Both

1220
00:59:04,520 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 16: of those, the Producers Group and the Consumers Group are

1221
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 16: calling for tighter balances, for deficits, for inventory draws to

1222
00:59:13,640 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 16: take place later in the year in the second half.

1223
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 16: But it really comes down to demand, right and if

1224
00:59:20,040 --> 00:59:24,479
Speaker 16: Chinese economic recovery does not come through to power oil

1225
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:28,440
Speaker 16: demand growth, if we get into a recessionary pullback and

1226
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:32,840
Speaker 16: economic pullback in the economies of the United States and Europe,

1227
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:37,080
Speaker 16: then oil demand growth plans will will will not come

1228
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 16: to fruition will be questioned. So in that case, the

1229
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 16: shorts might be proven right. So that's that's kind of

1230
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 16: the tug of war for market sentiment that's taking place

1231
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:47,440
Speaker 16: right now. I think the organization for sure has an

1232
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:51,160
Speaker 16: influential role to play, and we're gonna find out in

1233
00:59:51,160 --> 00:59:53,200
Speaker 16: the coming weeks who has the upper hand in this

1234
00:59:53,240 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 16: game of tug of war.

1235
00:59:54,120 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 4: Right now, Hey, Clay, we're out of time here, but

1236
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:57,640
Speaker 4: I have to ask you, because we spoke with your

1237
00:59:57,640 --> 01:00:00,120
Speaker 4: colleague Bob McNally. I believe it was two weeks to

1238
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:03,560
Speaker 4: go here on the program. He was looking for one

1239
01:00:03,600 --> 01:00:06,480
Speaker 4: hundred dollars a barrel oil this year, four dollars a

1240
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 4: gallon this summer. Are you in the same camp.

1241
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 7: What we are?

1242
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 16: Our outlook does call for higher oil prices, including getting

1243
01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 16: back to triple digits later this year. That's on a

1244
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 16: fundamental analysis looking at what we see as emerging deficits

1245
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:27,520
Speaker 16: between supply and demand and big inventory draws. So if

1246
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 16: those things come true, we will get back to one

1247
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 16: hundred dollars territory incrude and nationwide average prices for regular

1248
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 16: gasoline can get back up above four dollars gallon. I

1249
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 16: appreciate that it's already higher in some West Coast markets,

1250
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:46,240
Speaker 16: and that's the politically sensitive zone in Washington on a

1251
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 16: regular year, let alone, as we get put up for

1252
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:50,040
Speaker 16: an election, CAMPI.

1253
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:53,000
Speaker 4: Right, Clay, thanks for all the great info. Clay Siegel,

1254
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 4: Global oil service director at Rapidan one hundred dollars a barrel.

1255
01:00:57,360 --> 01:00:59,280
Speaker 4: What are the people selling today going to make of that?

1256
01:00:59,360 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 7: Right? Wonder?

1257
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 6: That's a good question.

1258
01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:05,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg sound On podcast Catch us

1259
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:07,360
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at one eastern.

1260
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg

1261
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 2: Business app, or listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

1262
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:16,880
Speaker 4: So what happened to the big rally here? I thought

1263
01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 4: this was the big day. I was hearing about technical levels,

1264
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:24,439
Speaker 4: the beginning of a bull market Apple all time high.

1265
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:28,880
Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew with Kaylee Lyons, and I'm confused me too, Okay,

1266
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:31,280
Speaker 4: you and me both? Did we give it up here?

1267
01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 4: And we just rolled over?

1268
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:32,800
Speaker 12: Yeah?

1269
01:01:32,800 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 6: We rolled over? The rolling over started kind of when

1270
01:01:36,120 --> 01:01:39,360
Speaker 6: sound On started its facious.

1271
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:40,400
Speaker 4: Joe talking the markets.

1272
01:01:40,640 --> 01:01:44,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, we're flat on the Nasdaq one hundred and Apple,

1273
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:50,320
Speaker 6: after just formally introducing its mixed reality headset thing also

1274
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:53,040
Speaker 6: briefly touch negative territory, We're now up just a tenth

1275
01:01:53,040 --> 01:01:53,680
Speaker 6: of one percent.

1276
01:01:54,120 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 4: So much for that innovation. Can I ask you before

1277
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 4: we bring in Jess Metton, would you ever wear that thing?

1278
01:01:58,720 --> 01:02:03,479
Speaker 4: Am I just for thousand dollars? I understand, I'm I don't.

1279
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 4: I just I don't get it. I think maybe I'm

1280
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:06,040
Speaker 4: just officially too old for that.

1281
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:10,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, I just I don't know in what context I

1282
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:12,439
Speaker 6: would use it. I think that's mine.

1283
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:14,320
Speaker 4: They see this as the future of computing. Like when

1284
01:02:14,320 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 4: you sit down at your at your screen you're wearing

1285
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 4: you're wearing the headset. You're not looking at your computer anymore.

1286
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:19,680
Speaker 11: Yeah.

1287
01:02:19,720 --> 01:02:21,720
Speaker 6: I guessing in a meta world, are we going to

1288
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:24,480
Speaker 6: have like a virtual reality terminal? Because that's basically the

1289
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:26,280
Speaker 6: only thing I use a computer for these days.

1290
01:02:26,280 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 4: I'm just that would actually be really cool, wouldn't it.

1291
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:31,040
Speaker 4: Yea to sort of go inside the terminal. It would

1292
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:33,160
Speaker 4: be like watching Bloomberg TV because they think we all

1293
01:02:33,200 --> 01:02:35,560
Speaker 4: live in there. We're like trum, We're like the actors

1294
01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:36,960
Speaker 4: on Tron inside the computer.

1295
01:02:37,120 --> 01:02:37,400
Speaker 12: Mm hm.

1296
01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:39,040
Speaker 6: We should go talk to the bosses.

1297
01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:42,480
Speaker 4: About that, Jess, would you put that thing on? And

1298
01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 4: for what?

1299
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 17: I like Kayley's idea about this virtual reality for the terminal.

1300
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:49,360
Speaker 17: I feel that would be especially useful for all of us.

1301
01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 4: Right, we'd all live in like a black and yellow world.

1302
01:02:52,000 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 17: We would And to your point, Joe, obviously, coming into today,

1303
01:02:55,320 --> 01:02:57,640
Speaker 17: everybody was talking about obviously as the S and P

1304
01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:01,160
Speaker 17: five hundred, Intra Day was treating technically what would be

1305
01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 17: twenty percent higher from that record low back in October,

1306
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:07,120
Speaker 17: so putting into what some people would define as a

1307
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:09,960
Speaker 17: bull market, but putting it in perspective, still the S

1308
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 17: and P five hundred is about twelve percent away from

1309
01:03:13,080 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 17: its all time high that it made in January of

1310
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:18,880
Speaker 17: last year. Obviously that what was helping the stock was

1311
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:23,440
Speaker 17: when Apple was still higher earlier. Obviously during today this afternoon,

1312
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 17: unfortunately turning a little bit lower. As Kaylie was just

1313
01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:28,680
Speaker 17: talking about, as we're getting more details on this vision

1314
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:32,640
Speaker 17: pro this mixed reality headset that they were unveiling here,

1315
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 17: but Apple was trading at all time high as Intra

1316
01:03:35,840 --> 01:03:38,560
Speaker 17: Day pulled back a little bit. Now its stock is flat,

1317
01:03:38,640 --> 01:03:41,000
Speaker 17: But among Apple that was one of the big movers

1318
01:03:41,000 --> 01:03:42,480
Speaker 17: that was obviously adding to the S and.

1319
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 7: P five hundred.

1320
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:45,880
Speaker 17: This was Microsoft, Google, but obviously some of these AI

1321
01:03:45,960 --> 01:03:48,520
Speaker 17: stocks that have been on a tear recently, like in

1322
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:50,480
Speaker 17: Vidia for instance, that's actually lower today.

1323
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:53,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, Well, I mean we can talk about the inter day.

1324
01:03:53,480 --> 01:03:56,080
Speaker 6: But Jess, I just pulled up the year to date

1325
01:03:56,160 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 6: chart of Apple still up thirty nine percent, right, I mean,

1326
01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:04,360
Speaker 6: is this just a like safety play back to growth?

1327
01:04:04,440 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 6: What explains this?

1328
01:04:05,440 --> 01:04:06,920
Speaker 17: Well, part of it is, and it was trading at

1329
01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:10,960
Speaker 17: a nineteen month low coming into this year, so quite

1330
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:13,560
Speaker 17: a big rebound there. But to your point, when it

1331
01:04:13,600 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 17: comes to this type of safety type trade, a lot

1332
01:04:16,000 --> 01:04:17,880
Speaker 17: of that, especially when we think back to March, right,

1333
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 17: what was happening with those banking stresses. There was that

1334
01:04:20,200 --> 01:04:24,120
Speaker 17: flight to the sort of tech growth type of haven trade,

1335
01:04:24,400 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 17: and that really helped Apple, which is obviously looked upon

1336
01:04:27,200 --> 01:04:29,200
Speaker 17: as when you think of the type of cash flow

1337
01:04:29,240 --> 01:04:31,840
Speaker 17: that that company has, as well as other big old

1338
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:35,400
Speaker 17: tech type companies Microsoft as well, right, and those have

1339
01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:37,720
Speaker 17: really held up. So I think once we got into

1340
01:04:37,720 --> 01:04:39,520
Speaker 17: the spring, and obviously what was happening with some of

1341
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:43,040
Speaker 17: those bank stresses that really helped lift tech in particular

1342
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:43,800
Speaker 17: this year.

1343
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 4: I woke up this morning to this headline. I believe

1344
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:53,040
Speaker 4: it was ten points to a new bull market. Did

1345
01:04:53,040 --> 01:04:55,120
Speaker 4: we cross that level? And what the heck? So the

1346
01:04:55,160 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 4: technicals don't matter today, I guess, Well, of course you

1347
01:04:57,760 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 4: need to hold above that level level for it to

1348
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:00,520
Speaker 4: work well.

1349
01:05:00,680 --> 01:05:03,720
Speaker 17: The actual level for if the S and P five

1350
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:06,520
Speaker 17: hundred closes at or above it would be forty two

1351
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:08,640
Speaker 17: to ninety two point four to four, So that would

1352
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:12,320
Speaker 17: be the twenty percent level from the October lows. But

1353
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:15,440
Speaker 17: someone in my conversations with my sources, they were thinking

1354
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:17,640
Speaker 17: that's kind of more of a minor level of support,

1355
01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:20,440
Speaker 17: And there's not really when you're thinking about the economic

1356
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:23,360
Speaker 17: calendar of the earnings calendar too much this week because investors,

1357
01:05:23,400 --> 01:05:25,720
Speaker 17: as you know, Joe, are looking ahead to the FEDS

1358
01:05:25,760 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 17: two day leading next week obviously with that decision on

1359
01:05:28,000 --> 01:05:31,120
Speaker 17: the fourteenth, but the thirteenth we also get CPI. But

1360
01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 17: I think more importantly, beyond even just this twenty percent threshold,

1361
01:05:35,240 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 17: bulls toward of level for the S and P five hundred,

1362
01:05:37,520 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 17: they're actually when I'm speaking with technicians, they're looking at

1363
01:05:40,160 --> 01:05:42,720
Speaker 17: forty three twenty five. It was the inter day high

1364
01:05:42,720 --> 01:05:45,640
Speaker 17: on August sixteenth of last year, which is still served

1365
01:05:45,760 --> 01:05:47,720
Speaker 17: as resistance. So there could be a little bit more

1366
01:05:47,800 --> 01:05:49,480
Speaker 17: room there for the S and P five hundred to run.

1367
01:05:49,520 --> 01:05:52,600
Speaker 17: But obviously the Nasdaq one hundred in particular and tech

1368
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:54,680
Speaker 17: stocks have been on a tear as Kaylee knows the

1369
01:05:54,720 --> 01:05:55,800
Speaker 17: past couple of weeks.

1370
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:59,280
Speaker 6: Well and Joe. When we're looking at individual stocks, Obviously

1371
01:05:59,320 --> 01:06:02,439
Speaker 6: Apple rolled over, but Disney actually just got a little

1372
01:06:02,440 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 6: bit out of a lift, arguably because of Apple, because

1373
01:06:05,560 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 6: Bob Iger at the CEO of Disney, came on stage

1374
01:06:08,520 --> 01:06:11,920
Speaker 6: at Apple's event. They're partnering on the content for this headset.

1375
01:06:11,920 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 6: Apparently Disney Plus will be available on the Apple Vision

1376
01:06:15,440 --> 01:06:18,440
Speaker 6: Pro and Disney just kind of touched positive territory now.

1377
01:06:18,520 --> 01:06:20,800
Speaker 6: Essentially flat seems to be kind of the theme now

1378
01:06:20,880 --> 01:06:21,560
Speaker 6: is flatness.

1379
01:06:21,560 --> 01:06:23,880
Speaker 4: But it's all coming together now. Now we will be

1380
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 4: able to be tron inside the computer versions of ourselves

1381
01:06:28,520 --> 01:06:29,800
Speaker 4: passionate segment here.

1382
01:06:30,040 --> 01:06:33,080
Speaker 17: Ess and you know what, Disney has been a stock

1383
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:36,640
Speaker 17: that has not performed quite as well as some of

1384
01:06:36,640 --> 01:06:39,400
Speaker 17: the portfolio managers that I know had been hoping for.

1385
01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:41,800
Speaker 17: So maybe this is a way in that could potentially

1386
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:44,080
Speaker 17: Obviously we're seeing that Kayley's point, it's at stock if

1387
01:06:44,080 --> 01:06:47,720
Speaker 17: ticker symple t DS is up close to five percent

1388
01:06:47,760 --> 01:06:50,680
Speaker 17: and intro day trading, so if it continues on that,

1389
01:06:50,720 --> 01:06:54,160
Speaker 17: it'd be ties closed best percentage day gain since December

1390
01:06:54,200 --> 01:06:54,920
Speaker 17: of twenty twenty.

1391
01:06:55,680 --> 01:06:59,280
Speaker 6: I just wonder just how we should be thinking about

1392
01:06:59,600 --> 01:07:02,840
Speaker 6: broad the picture. We've obviously come out of an earning season,

1393
01:07:02,840 --> 01:07:05,240
Speaker 6: it's going to pick back up again in about a month.

1394
01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:07,800
Speaker 6: And I noticed the Morgan Stanley research out in the

1395
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:11,040
Speaker 6: last twenty four hours talking about earnings falling sixteen percent,

1396
01:07:11,360 --> 01:07:13,120
Speaker 6: and yet we're also talking about the S and P

1397
01:07:13,200 --> 01:07:15,320
Speaker 6: five hundred right here on the verge of a bull market.

1398
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:16,240
Speaker 6: Does that make sense?

1399
01:07:16,360 --> 01:07:19,600
Speaker 17: So, Gina Martin Adams at Bloomberg Intelligence has a lot

1400
01:07:19,640 --> 01:07:21,800
Speaker 17: of great data, and her and her team have pointed

1401
01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:24,080
Speaker 17: out is when you take energy out of the S

1402
01:07:24,080 --> 01:07:27,120
Speaker 17: and P five hundred, the earnings growth has actually been

1403
01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:29,680
Speaker 17: in a recession since the second quarter of last year.

1404
01:07:29,720 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 17: So energy was actually masking the more of the weakness

1405
01:07:32,800 --> 01:07:34,880
Speaker 17: last year just because that was a sector that obviously

1406
01:07:34,880 --> 01:07:38,120
Speaker 17: benefited from inflation and how that translated to commodity prices.

1407
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:40,120
Speaker 17: Now it's sort of the opposite effect of this year

1408
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:42,840
Speaker 17: to where if you're looking at that and excluding energy

1409
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:44,720
Speaker 17: for the S and P five hundred, the earnings growth

1410
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:47,480
Speaker 17: is actually much stronger looking in this back half of

1411
01:07:47,480 --> 01:07:49,800
Speaker 17: this year, and double digit growth a year from now.

1412
01:07:49,960 --> 01:07:52,120
Speaker 17: So that's something that you kind of have to square

1413
01:07:52,160 --> 01:07:54,640
Speaker 17: away when you are looking at some of these expectations

1414
01:07:54,680 --> 01:07:56,200
Speaker 17: from the strategist on Wall Street.

1415
01:07:56,760 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 4: Is the crude oil story getting any attention today on

1416
01:08:00,000 --> 01:08:02,720
Speaker 4: Wall Street? I asked you that with only a minute left, Jess,

1417
01:08:02,720 --> 01:08:04,720
Speaker 4: because we just spent quite a bit of time talking

1418
01:08:04,760 --> 01:08:07,720
Speaker 4: about this emergency production cut or surprise, I should say,

1419
01:08:07,960 --> 01:08:10,520
Speaker 4: a production cut from OPEC that seems to be falling flat.

1420
01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:12,920
Speaker 17: Right, So we did see a bigger move when it

1421
01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:15,720
Speaker 17: came to energy stocks this morning based on that. Now

1422
01:08:15,760 --> 01:08:18,320
Speaker 17: you're looking at where US oil prices are trading around

1423
01:08:18,360 --> 01:08:20,760
Speaker 17: seventy two dollars a barrel. But if you want to

1424
01:08:20,760 --> 01:08:24,400
Speaker 17: look at particular names, Excellon Mobile in particular had been

1425
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:27,720
Speaker 17: up earlier today, as well as Chevron. Now you're looking

1426
01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:29,960
Speaker 17: at those stocks kind of giving up those gains, as

1427
01:08:30,000 --> 01:08:33,080
Speaker 17: well as Occidental Petroleum, So those had been up about

1428
01:08:33,080 --> 01:08:36,040
Speaker 17: one two percent higher. Now, as you're seeing energy and

1429
01:08:36,080 --> 01:08:38,360
Speaker 17: you're looking at crude prices in particular pulling back, that's

1430
01:08:38,360 --> 01:08:40,760
Speaker 17: obviously weighing a little bit on US energy.

1431
01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:41,080
Speaker 4: Stocks as well.

1432
01:08:41,160 --> 01:08:41,280
Speaker 7: Jeh.

1433
01:08:41,360 --> 01:08:43,160
Speaker 4: There, Hey, Jess, thanks for coming on. It's great to

1434
01:08:43,200 --> 01:08:46,080
Speaker 4: talk to you. Jess. Met and Bloomberg Deputy team leader

1435
01:08:46,600 --> 01:08:49,200
Speaker 4: an Equity is reporter. We're getting the management on now.

1436
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 4: Kayleym hm.

1437
01:08:50,439 --> 01:08:50,920
Speaker 7: This show is.

1438
01:08:50,920 --> 01:08:54,479
Speaker 4: Reaching new heights. Everything with Kaylee Lines, I've Joe Matthew,

1439
01:08:54,520 --> 01:09:01,120
Speaker 4: this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Sound on Podcast.

1440
01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:04,320
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1441
01:09:04,400 --> 01:09:06,840
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1442
01:09:06,840 --> 01:09:09,840
Speaker 4: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one

1443
01:09:09,880 --> 01:09:13,880
Speaker 4: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com