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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this.

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Speaker 2: One is good. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: We're throwing in song spect we're saying it's a cash

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Speaker 1: to stop. We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 4: You want to be.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Brandon Anderson, joined

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Speaker 5: as always by Raheem Palmer, and today we are coming

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Speaker 5: at you with our AFC preview Blitz. We are going

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Speaker 5: to fly through the entire AFC in forty five minutes

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Speaker 5: with a quick rundown and the best bet from each

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Speaker 5: of us for every single team. Raheem, I'm not sure

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Speaker 5: our podcast blitz quite made it home in the NFC version.

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Speaker 5: Do you think that we will get to the provert

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Speaker 5: real quarterback any better here?

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, yeah, we definitely gonna get to them.

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Speaker 1: And it's gonna start right now by you know, limiting

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Speaker 1: this segment and getting straight to it to who we have.

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Speaker 3: We got the Kansas City Chiefs first, right, we.

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Speaker 5: Got the Chiefs first. But let me finish up here

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Speaker 5: a bit, don't don't forget listeners to check out the

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Speaker 5: four hours of win totals from Stocky, Raybon and Kerner

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Speaker 5: right here in the podcast feed. Make sure to get

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Speaker 5: the NFC preview blitz that we did Raheem and I

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Speaker 5: earlier this week.

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Speaker 2: Yes, today is the AFC.

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Speaker 5: We are not doing traditional overrunders here for the most part,

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Speaker 5: but just what everything else is in play? So super

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Speaker 5: Bowl Conference, division winner, order, finish, alternate overrunders, anything we

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Speaker 5: can find to win you some cash. So yes, as always,

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Speaker 5: odds today are from BETMGM, the official odds provider of

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Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast. We ranked teams one to sixteen

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Speaker 5: Raheem and I, so that is the order we are

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Speaker 5: going through them today, top to bottom. And as Raheem said,

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Speaker 5: that means we are starting the blitz off with the

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Speaker 5: team to beat in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 5: So or him, here's my question for you. The Chiefs

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Speaker 5: have won twelve, thirteen and fourteen games the last three seasons.

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Speaker 5: They are just crushing everyone. So is this team just

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Speaker 5: gonna steam roll through the entire conference again?

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Speaker 1: No, I don't think they're gonna steam roll through the

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Speaker 1: entire conference. When you looked at them last year. They

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Speaker 1: were like eight and oh man, one score games. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this team struggled. They weren't just blowing everybody out. You

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Speaker 1: look at some of these games. Look at the game

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Speaker 1: against Carolina. It was a one score game and they struggled. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you got the Super Bowl hang overcoming. I'm

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Speaker 1: going under twelve and a half wins. I know it's

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Speaker 1: risky because it's Patrick Mahomes, but this team still can't

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Speaker 1: stop the run. They did fix the offensive line up,

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Speaker 1: but they're not that deep at receiver.

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Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to run through the league.

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Speaker 3: I'm going under. Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I worry about the Chiefs a little bit. I'm not

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Speaker 5: super worried. I'm not out on them necessarily, but there

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Speaker 5: are just a lot of maybe orange flags on this team,

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Speaker 5: maybe not quite red flags. But the defense. I really

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Speaker 5: don't like this defense. The run defense has been in

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Speaker 5: big trouble for a long time.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 5: I have them on my position groups. I have them

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Speaker 5: bottom ten on ed rushers and linebackers and cornerbacks, and

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Speaker 5: then bottom ten overall defensively. And if you are that

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Speaker 5: bad on defense, you have to be the Mahomes god

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Speaker 5: level on offense in order to get by and so

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Speaker 5: maybe they are still that. But this is a team

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Speaker 5: that has, you know, paid so much for Mahomes and

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Speaker 5: they should he deserves it. But if you got Mahomes,

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Speaker 5: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey, you got Jones on defense, I

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Speaker 5: don't know who is the next best guy on the team,

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Speaker 5: you know, Like, I feel like this is the year

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Speaker 5: where some of those depth issues start to crop up

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Speaker 5: a little bit. So yeah, I'm just I'm a little

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Speaker 5: worried about the team. I thought about the twelve five

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Speaker 5: as well. Here's the crazy one, so raheem. You know

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Speaker 5: from our NBA podcast, I love my long shots. I

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Speaker 5: think I let our listeners down. I did not do

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Speaker 5: many long shots in the first in the NFC preview,

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Speaker 5: but I am coming with the long shots today. So

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Speaker 5: here's my long shot here. I like your twelve point

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Speaker 5: five under. I like Denver and the Chargers both. We'll

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Speaker 5: come back to it later. Kansasity Chiefs to finish third

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Speaker 5: in the division plus seven hundred.

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Speaker 3: Nice. Nice.

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Speaker 5: I'm not out on it. I still think they can

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Speaker 5: make the playoffs. I just think the wrong injury or

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Speaker 5: the wrong spot, I think they could really trub be troubling.

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Speaker 5: I'm not going to go much on it. It's just

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Speaker 5: a little sprinkle. One thing I would note is that

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs play the first two weeks against the Browns

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Speaker 5: and the Ravens. We're going to talk about them next

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Speaker 5: because they are the next two teams in the AFC.

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Speaker 5: So if you like the Chiefs, if you think that

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Speaker 5: Rahim and I are crazy, don't bet them right now

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Speaker 5: because there's a pretty good chance they're going to lose

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Speaker 5: one of those games and you're gonna get better odds

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Speaker 5: after that. So if you do want to play Kansas City,

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Speaker 5: you need to wait for one of those two games,

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Speaker 5: for one of those losses that might come, and then

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Speaker 5: that's the moment for you.

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Speaker 1: I do I do kind of agree with that, but

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Speaker 1: I just to me, I just don't think it's their Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, when you look, I'm not really a big

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Speaker 1: fan of playing teams to come off a Super Bowl hangover.

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Speaker 1: I mean, when you look at the twenty twenty forty

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Speaker 1: nine Ers, I mean, I mean they struggle, the twenty

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Speaker 1: nineteen Rams. Every single team except for the Patriots has

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Speaker 1: had a vicious Super Bowl hangover. So I mean, if

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahan could overcome.

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Speaker 3: That, so be it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I do think so. So let's move on to

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Speaker 5: the Browns and the Ravens. There are the next two teams.

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Speaker 5: I've got the Ravens second on my board. You've got

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Speaker 5: the Browns second on yours. So let's start out with

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Speaker 5: the Browns. And I have to wonder if the Browns

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Speaker 5: were not the Browns, if you could give them a

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Speaker 5: different jersey and a different team name, would they be

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Speaker 5: my Super Bowl peck because I kind of think that

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Speaker 5: they might be. I think it's just that Browns thing

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Speaker 5: that's holding me back a little bit. Here's what I

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Speaker 5: like about the team. They have added so much talent there.

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Speaker 5: They're getting Jadavian Clowney and he's gonna be getting single

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Speaker 5: teams opposite Miles Garrett. You can't block like four guys

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Speaker 5: on both of them. That's not how football works. Miles

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Speaker 5: Garrett last year had COVID and that was an issue.

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Speaker 5: And dexter Ward is back. They got John Johnson, who

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Speaker 5: I love at safety. They brought an Anthony Walker. I

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Speaker 5: love the draft, Greg Newsom and Jeremiah Alusukormra. I think

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Speaker 5: it's going to help out this defense a lot. The

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Speaker 5: offense is already good, and to me, this is a

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Speaker 5: complete team with one question mark, and the question mark

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Speaker 5: is Baker Mayfield. And I think that that is an

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Speaker 5: answerable question mark. Baker really stepped up the last like

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Speaker 5: seven or eight games last year once he got the

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Speaker 5: hang of the offense. There are a lot of positive

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Speaker 5: signs here, so I can see where you're high on

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Speaker 5: the Browns.

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Speaker 2: What else do you like about Cleveland? This here?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think the big thing is the secondary

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Speaker 1: is actually healthy.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you mentioned.

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Speaker 1: Denzel Ward, We got Greedy Williams coming back, They signed

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Speaker 1: you know, guys like John Johnson and Troy Hill. I

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Speaker 1: think the secondary is gonna be big. The defensive line

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Speaker 1: is solid. But then when you look at look at

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Speaker 1: the Browns last year, they had they played in multiple

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Speaker 1: games where you had thirty to forty mile per hour

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Speaker 1: wins against Las Vegas, Houston, Philadelphia. So you know a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna blindly look at their protagora

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Speaker 1: and expectation and you know, you see that they were

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Speaker 1: only expected to win seven point seven games and they

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Speaker 1: won eleven. So you know, traditionally that would mean that

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Speaker 1: you're you're looking to fad this team. But a lot

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Speaker 1: of that had to do with some of the other factors,

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Speaker 1: the win factor and the weather factor. They had poor

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Speaker 1: injury luck on defense. Chubb even took that knee at

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Speaker 1: the one against Houston. That one score changes their point differentially.

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Speaker 1: You know, in the first half of games they were solid.

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Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of Kevin Stefanski.

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Speaker 3: You guys know I want the UPenn. This guy actually won.

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Speaker 1: A championship as a football player at Hugh Penn graduated

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Speaker 1: University of Pennsylvania two thousand and four.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm always gonna rent for the home team. Cleveland.

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Speaker 3: Team that could the ball.

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Speaker 1: If you could run the ball, you could play defense.

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Speaker 1: You know, they got Odell Beckham coming back. They got

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Speaker 1: everything you need. This is a super Bowl winning team.

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Speaker 1: Take the Browns plus sixteen hundred to win a Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: plus seven fifty to win an AFC and over ten

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Speaker 1: and a half wins.

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Speaker 5: Wow, all in on the Browns and some Quaker love too.

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Speaker 2: I love it.

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Speaker 5: So here's my only pushback on it. I had the

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Speaker 5: Super Bowl sixteen hundred as my best bet on the team,

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Speaker 5: and it's my only Super Bowl pick out. All the

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Speaker 5: teams are doing. That is the eighth favor right now,

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Speaker 5: and I think that that's too low. I think the

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Speaker 5: Browns are probably the fourth or fifth favorite. To me,

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Speaker 5: here's my only pushback. Who do the Browns play in

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Speaker 5: Week one?

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Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs Kansas.

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Speaker 5: City Chiefs, and I like the matchup for Cleveland. I

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Speaker 5: like that the Cleveland running attack should be able to

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Speaker 5: really hurt Kansas City. However, I've thought that for years

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Speaker 5: about Baltimore, and then I get crushed every single season

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Speaker 5: when Baltimore gets rocked by Kansas City. So I think

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Speaker 5: the most likely scenario is that the Browns start oh

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Speaker 5: to one. They're facing the Chiefs. So I'm not betting

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Speaker 5: the sixteen hundred because I'm gonna wait and then bet

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Speaker 5: it after week one, and that's when that's when I'm waying.

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Speaker 2: On the Browns.

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Speaker 5: Here, I think if the Browns beat the Chiefs, I

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Speaker 5: lost the number and I'm never getting it back again.

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Speaker 5: So I'm stuck a little bit. But that's the one

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Speaker 5: where I like my play is. I'm just picking Baltimore

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Speaker 5: and Cleveland to finish top two in the division either

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Speaker 5: order minus one twenty five. To me, that's free money.

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Speaker 5: Like I don't like Pittsburgh cincinnat is not doing it.

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Speaker 5: These are the two teams to beat in that division

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Speaker 5: and maybe in the AFC. So I love that one

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Speaker 5: a lot. I might play enough of that to get

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Speaker 5: me a little more money that I'm going to pay

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Speaker 5: out and put that into my Browns Super Bowl odds.

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Speaker 5: Cleveland fans get excited. I think this is the real deal.

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Speaker 5: Let's have about the other team in that division, the

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Speaker 5: Baltimore Ravens. So you aren't quite as high on the

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Speaker 5: Ravens as the Browns, but you do have them top

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Speaker 5: three in the AFC.

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Speaker 2: Talk to me about the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think the Ravens we are, we know

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Speaker 3: what they are.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if they've consistently drafted well, they're gonna have

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Speaker 1: a good defense, They're gonna be able to run the ball.

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Speaker 1: I mean the issue remains with the Ravens. Can they

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Speaker 1: beat you coming from behind? Can they throw? Can Lamar

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Speaker 1: Jackson throw to the outside, to the hashes? I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's really what it comes down to, because you know,

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Speaker 1: if they're playing one of these upper echelon teams, they

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Speaker 1: haven't proven that they can throw their way back into

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Speaker 1: the game. And I think that's why I have Cleveland

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Speaker 1: over them because I just think Baker right now. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I hate to say it, but if I'm going to

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Speaker 1: war with a quarterback, I might want Baker more than

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Speaker 1: Lamar just because I mean, I'm just being honest. He

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Speaker 1: gives you a if you're not going down in the game,

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Speaker 1: he might give you a better chance. If you're down

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Speaker 1: in the game, Baker might give you a better chance.

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Speaker 1: And I also think Kevin I have more respect for

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Speaker 1: Kevin Stefanski and what they're doing with that offense then

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Speaker 1: I do it with the Ravens offense.

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Speaker 3: So I think the Ravens are solid.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think you got to go over ten

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Speaker 1: and a half wins, just because I'm not really that

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Speaker 1: high on this division. Out of the Browns and the Ravens,

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Speaker 1: I think the Stillers are week. We'll get to them later.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bengals a week. We'll get to them later.

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Speaker 1: So I think over ten and a half wins is good.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I love the Ravens in the regular season. I don't

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Speaker 5: know yet how I feel about them in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: I want to get there. Rahem.

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Speaker 5: You and I talk NBA a lot. The Ravens remind

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Speaker 5: me a lot of the Milwaukee Bucks, but the Milwaukee

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Speaker 5: Bucks from like three months ago, where they're kind of

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Speaker 5: this regular season juggernaut, but we stopped caring. Like we

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Speaker 5: see the defense dominate, we see their MVP dominate. We

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Speaker 5: know it's going to happen and pile up a lot

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Speaker 5: of wins, but we haven't seen it when it really matters.

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Speaker 5: And I guess the good news for Ravens fans is

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Speaker 5: the Milwaukee Bucks are NBA champions right now and things

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Speaker 5: worked out there. And so if if they're Giannis onto

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Speaker 5: the compo who is Lamar Jackson in this case, if

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Speaker 5: he can show up in the moment and still do

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Speaker 5: his thing in the playoffs, then I think that there's

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Speaker 5: a real hope there. What I love about the team

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Speaker 5: is I think their regular season juggernaut, the offensive line

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Speaker 5: is gonna be a lot better, especially the run blocking.

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Speaker 5: I love Win Martindale, the defensive coordinator. The Ravens blitz

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Speaker 5: a lot. They play a ton of man coverage. They've

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Speaker 5: been top ten defensive DBOA in three straight years and

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Speaker 5: top ten on a run defense five straight years. Another

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Speaker 5: thing I love about this team is that John Harbaugh

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Speaker 5: is the old Special team's wiz and this team always

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Speaker 5: always has an edge in special teams. Nine straight years

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Speaker 5: they've been in the top quarter of the league, and

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Speaker 5: they've been top four in seven of those nine years.

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Speaker 5: And you might think that that's not much, but special

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Speaker 5: teams can be like a winner too per season that

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Speaker 5: you know, justin Tucker hitting yet another field goal out there.

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Speaker 2: So I just think that the schedule looks good.

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Speaker 5: At the top seven quarterbacks on the Milwaukee schedule all

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Speaker 5: come not Milwaukee. On Baltimore's schedule, all come to Baltimore.

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Speaker 5: So I love them in the regular season. I'm playing

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Speaker 5: them at plus five point fifty to be the one

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Speaker 5: seed in the AFC. I don't know if I'm ready

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Speaker 5: yet to keep betting them after that. It helps if

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Speaker 5: they are the one seed. But I really like the

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Speaker 5: Ravens this year. Well, that is our top three teams.

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Speaker 5: Let's move to the fourth team, which for you you

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Speaker 5: think still is a super Bowl contender. I don't think

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Speaker 5: this team is super Bowl contender. That's the Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 5: I think the AFC is very top heavy. I think

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Speaker 5: this is our fourth team in the AFC. But I

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Speaker 5: am not a believer in the Bills in the playoffs.

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Speaker 5: To me, this team is very limited to Josh Allen

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Speaker 5: and Brian Dable, and I like the combo, but it's

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Speaker 5: not a great defense. It's pretty good. It's a blah

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Speaker 5: run game. The offensive line is fine. I love what

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Speaker 5: Dable is doing. They're passing aggressively on early downs. But

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Speaker 5: I don't really trust Josh Allen yet quite like I

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Speaker 5: trust him. He's clearly good now, I'm just not sure

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Speaker 5: that he's that top top echelon. Last year, Alan jumped

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Speaker 5: from thirty fifth in completion percentage over expectation, So that's

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Speaker 5: kind of like, how much better are you doing than

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Speaker 5: what the throws are landing up? You jump from thirty

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Speaker 5: fifth the second. Last year against the Blitz, he jumped

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Speaker 5: twenty fifth to third. Clearly he's good. Listen Bill's Mafia.

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Speaker 5: He's good. Josh Allen is good. I'm wrong about that

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Speaker 5: from years past. He's good. I just don't know if

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Speaker 5: he's great. I don't know if he quite has that

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Speaker 5: top level. That seems like regression to me that those

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Speaker 5: numbers are gonna drop a little bit. So I'm not

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Speaker 5: super into the team here, but I hate the rest

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Speaker 5: of the division. So I still like Buffalo pretty well, overall,

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Speaker 5: you think they win the super Bowl, sell me on them.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not really big on them winning the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl. I'm gonna be honest with you. I do

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Speaker 1: think they're probab from some regression. I mean, I just

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Speaker 1: kind of at this point, you kind of got to

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Speaker 1: give Josh Allen the benefit of a doubt, especially when

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Speaker 1: you got guys like Stefan Diggs Emanuel Sanders.

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Speaker 3: I think, I mean, we know that this offense is

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Speaker 3: gonna be good.

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Speaker 1: I do think the defense should should improve, but I'm

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Speaker 1: not really seeing any value in terms of the betting markets.

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Speaker 1: I think you know, the win total was eleven. I'm

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Speaker 1: not seeing any value there. I think our very own

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter reckon going under, but I'm not necessarily sure

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Speaker 1: I really want to go under. I am a lot

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Speaker 1: higher on the rested division than you are. I think

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Speaker 1: the Patriots should be better. I actually think the Jets

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Speaker 1: should be a lot better. We'll get to those teams later,

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Speaker 1: so I don't really want to touch this. I just

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Speaker 1: think they are currently proven to be one of the

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Speaker 1: upper echelon teams. How far if they can make the lead,

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Speaker 1: that remains to be seen.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I like the Simon under play also. But my

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Speaker 5: problem is that the schedule is so soft. Here's the

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Speaker 5: quarterbacks that this team faces. First of all the division,

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Speaker 5: they got to face Tua, Zach and Mac for six games.

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Speaker 5: That's six games against like these brand new quarterbacks that

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Speaker 5: we have no idea if they're good at all yet.

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Speaker 5: And then they get Darnold and Lawrence and Jamis and

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Speaker 5: Tyrod and Wentz and Fitzpatrick. That's twelve games against Like, whoa,

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Speaker 5: who are these quarterbacks? Like some of those guys might

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Speaker 5: turn out good eventually, but I just see a lot

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Speaker 5: of wins out there. I project Buffalo only at ten

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Speaker 5: point seven, which I think is very conservative. Even then,

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Speaker 5: I still have them winning the division by two point

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Speaker 5: three games. So to me, the play is that just

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Speaker 5: win the division minus one sixty. I don't see any

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Speaker 5: way Buffalo doesn't win this division unless Allen completely implodes.

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Speaker 5: The other thing too, we talked about Tampa and the NFC.

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Speaker 5: I think Campa and Buffalo are the two teams that

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Speaker 5: are almost locks to win the division. You can combine

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Speaker 5: those for plus one to fifty if you play both

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Speaker 5: to win.

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Speaker 2: So I'm just keeping going to win the division.

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Speaker 5: I do think Buffalo could get a bunch of wins

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Speaker 5: if things go right, but I don't want to play

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Speaker 5: them beyond that. So you talked about liking some of

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Speaker 5: the other teams in this division. The next team of

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Speaker 5: our list is the one team I think on the

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Speaker 5: entire NFL that you and I disagree the most about,

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Speaker 5: and today has been especially bad for my feelings on

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Speaker 5: this team. That is the New England Patriots. So let's

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Speaker 5: talk about the Patriots. Stefan Gilmore is going to the

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Speaker 5: pup list, so he's out for the first six weeks.

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Speaker 5: That's maybe their best defensive player. Cam Newton is out.

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Speaker 5: That's the big news. Cam is gone Mac Jones as

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Speaker 5: a starter. We're going with the rookie. So I didn't

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Speaker 5: love the paper before, but I thought that hy Floyd,

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Speaker 5: I'm really really out on this team. I think now

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Speaker 5: you like them. So why do you like the Patriots?

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Speaker 5: I need we got to go back and forth on

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Speaker 5: this on I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, I think the biggest thing is that this defense

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Speaker 1: is gonna be solid. They picked up a bunch of guys.

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Speaker 1: I mean, here's the thing we all knew going into

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Speaker 1: last year. This is a team that had the most

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Speaker 1: COVID losses in the league. I mean, they had all

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Speaker 1: these opt outs. Now you're getting guys back. You signed

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Speaker 1: Hunter Henry, you signed John U. Smith, you signed Nelson Aguilar,

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Speaker 1: you signed Kendrick Bourne. You signed guys on the defensive

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Speaker 1: side of the ball. So to me, I just think

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Speaker 1: this defense is gonna be solid. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: you get Kyle Vanuid back, he spent that one season

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Speaker 1: with the Dolphins.

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Speaker 3: You get Jalen Mills.

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Speaker 1: Now, a lot of my Eagles fans will complain about him,

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Speaker 1: but I just think, you know, you put a guy

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Speaker 1: in Belichick's system and they're gonna be solid. And I

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Speaker 1: think they spent all this money and I think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna play out well. I think Mac Jones, he looks

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Speaker 1: like a solid quarterback. I'm going over now wins. I

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Speaker 1: think this team is I think this team is a

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Speaker 1: playoff team. I mean, if you from what I seen

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Speaker 1: in a preseason, I like what I saw from this team.

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Speaker 3: I just think this is a bounce back here. They're

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Speaker 3: not going to win any super Bowls like we've saw

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Speaker 3: from the.

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady Patriots, but this is a team that's going

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Speaker 1: to challenge for the point postseason.

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Speaker 5: Boy, we are just head to head on this one,

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Speaker 5: because my best bet on the Patriots is them to

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Speaker 5: miss the playoffs. At minus one thirty five, I just

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Speaker 5: don't see it. And really, today it was the final

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Speaker 5: blow for me. I kind of thought that Cam Newton

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Speaker 5: was the quarterback for this team, and I know it

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Speaker 5: seems like Newton might just be washed and maybe Cam

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Speaker 5: getting cut just saved me from myself on this one.

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Speaker 5: I just feel like for this roster, what you had

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Speaker 5: was what I liked was you had a pretty good defense.

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Speaker 5: You have a very good offensive line, a bunch of

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Speaker 5: good tight ends. Now like that seemed to me, like,

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Speaker 5: play Cam Newton, run the ball. We don't need to pass.

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Speaker 5: We can't pass. That's finally, how many receivers in the

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Speaker 5: team anyway, just bludging the defense with Cam over and

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Speaker 5: over and over again. Let the defense do thing. Now

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Speaker 5: Cam is gone, and I'm like, okay, what is the offense.

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Speaker 5: Mac Jones is a rookie who was the fifth quarterback

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Speaker 5: taken in the draft, who shouldn't have been a first

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Speaker 5: round pick, and he's just the Day one starter Damian Harris.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 5: Maybe he's good at running back, but he hasn't done

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Speaker 5: a lot, yet their receivers are terrible. Nelson Aguilar, Jacoby Myers,

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Speaker 5: Nikhil Harry. Look, mac Jones has been throwing the last

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Speaker 5: couple of years to DeVante Smith, Jalen Wattle, and Henry Ruggs.

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Speaker 5: Like mac Jones receivers at Alabama, We're so much better

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Speaker 5: than anyone. He's going to be looking around, like where

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Speaker 5: are my guys to throw to? I have New England

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Speaker 5: bottom eight in my position rankings at quarterback and running

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Speaker 5: back and receiver. And the only other teams in the

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Speaker 5: NFL the entire NFL that have worse position players is

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Speaker 5: Houston and Detroit.

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Speaker 2: That's the two worst teams in the league.

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Speaker 5: So I just I know Belichick is just a magician,

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Speaker 5: which you assume it's going to work. But I kind

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Speaker 5: of think Belichick's losing his fastball a little bit. Back

435
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,640
Speaker 5: to the basketball references. We might be getting a late

436
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 5: stage pop here, and I guess I don't know. I

437
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 5: think he's bit off more thing and chew with this

438
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 5: mac Jones thing. So I'm fading them in the playoffs

439
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,119
Speaker 5: minus one thirty five. Now, we got to flip it

440
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 5: because we go the other way. My number five in

441
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 5: the AFC is a team that you're not so high on.

442
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna make the case for the Los Angeles Chargers.

443
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 5: I think the Chargers just scream positive regression all over

444
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 5: the place. I like so much about what the Chargers

445
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 5: are doing. The first thing I like is the offensive line.

446
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 5: They remind me the Chargers due of the last year's Browns.

447
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 5: We saw what happened when the Browns went from an

448
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 5: abysmal offensive line to suddenly the best in the league.

449
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 5: I don't think the Chargers are going to be best

450
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,120
Speaker 5: in the league suddenly, but they brought in Corey Linsley.

451
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 5: Adding an awesome center makes everything else better, makes the

452
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 5: quarterback better. Brian Blaga hopefully stays healthy. He's always good

453
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,919
Speaker 5: if he's healthy. Rayshawn Slater is on the other tackle,

454
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 5: he's really good. Last year line was thirty first in

455
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,640
Speaker 5: pass blocking and twenty ninth and run blocking, and they're

456
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 5: injured all year. Just improving that line is a huge difference.

457
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 5: Another thing, just improving the coaching is a huge difference.

458
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,719
Speaker 5: Anthony Lynn bad, real bad, lots of screwed up stuff,

459
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,880
Speaker 5: Like every time you bet the Chargers, look if you're better.

460
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 2: I didn't have to tell you if you bet the Chargers.

461
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 5: You're watching the game, You're like, what are you doing,

462
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 5: Anthony Lynn, You're screwing this up again. Now we've brought

463
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 5: in Brandon Staley, we brought in Joe Lombardi to run

464
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 5: the offense. I like what that's going to be for

465
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 5: the offense. It's just replacing badness with competence is already

466
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 5: a huge thing. And speaking of which, the special teams,

467
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 5: the Chargers' special teams was like historically bad last year.

468
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 5: They're absolutely dead last on special teams. The last two

469
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 5: seasons they were negative in all five areas of special teams.

470
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 5: They're historically bad at punting. Again, new special teams coach.

471
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 5: Just getting to average on that is worth an extra

472
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 5: winner too. I just think there's a lot of things

473
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,920
Speaker 5: about this team that just replacing the very very bad

474
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 5: thing from last year and getting it too eve an

475
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 5: average is gonna get them into the playoff mix. And

476
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 5: if it helps us to be good, then the Charges

477
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 5: can be really good.

478
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 4: You know.

479
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 1: I just think we're I think see it's not that

480
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 1: I'm not high on the Chargers.

481
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 3: I do.

482
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: I'm a believer in Justin Herbert. I just think we're

483
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 1: a year or too soon in this team. I just

484
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: to me, I like Brandon Stay, but he doesn't have

485
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 1: that many pieces to work with on his defense. He

486
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 1: doesn't have Aaron Donald, he doesn't have Jalen Ramsey. I mean,

487
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 1: he has Bosa, but I mean outside of that, I'm

488
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 1: not seeing a lot of death on his defense. So

489
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,119
Speaker 1: I'm not expecting his defense to go out there and

490
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: dominate in the same way that the Rams did. I

491
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 1: think there's two other teams in the division that are

492
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 1: obviously better, and I think that's the thing that's keeping

493
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: me away.

494
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 3: From, you know, really jumping on the bandwagon.

495
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 1: So I've seen some money on the over non wins,

496
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 1: but I just think it's cutting it closer.

497
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,119
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna play the Chargers at plus two thirty

498
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,120
Speaker 5: to make the wild card. I think that we talked

499
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 5: about that on our last podcast with Exact. I just

500
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 5: I like their chance of the playoffs. I also think

501
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 5: that the AFC is just really pretty soft overall, Like

502
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 5: I have almost a hard time coming up with seven

503
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 5: playoff teams. I think that it could be you might

504
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 5: get nine to eight and still make the playoffs. So

505
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 5: I agree. We'll talk about the Broncos in a second here,

506
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 5: but I think that they can, you know, make the

507
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 5: wild card even if the Chiefs and the Broncos both

508
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 5: make the playoffs.

509
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 1: One thing I will say is that, you know, I'm

510
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 1: really big on playing second year quarterbacks to win MVP,

511
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 1: and I think there's some value on Justin Herbert if

512
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 1: you want to look that direction, Because if the Chargers

513
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 1: are a playoff team, it's going to be because Justin Herbert.

514
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 3: So I definitely think that's something that you want to

515
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 3: look towards.

516
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,639
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Speaker 4: Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

546
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 5: All right, Well, let's talk about the Broncos that other

547
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 5: team in the division, because I think both you and

548
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 5: I have the Broncos in our playoffs and that might

549
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 5: be a surprise for listeners. Yeah, so tell me about Denver.

550
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 5: What what is you know, Denver is not a team

551
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 5: that is in most team most prognosticators playoffs.

552
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 2: So what is it that we love about them?

553
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 3: I mean, I think I think a lot of people

554
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 3: love Denver. I mean, you know, I've been saying it

555
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 3: all year. We've both been saying it all year.

556
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: We both put out a win totals piece back in

557
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: March where we took the Denver Broncos over seven and

558
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: a half wins is now up to eight and a half.

559
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,640
Speaker 3: I still think that's playable. I mean, when you look

560
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 3: at the NFL the landscape.

561
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 1: Last year, San Francisco built the hospital over in the

562
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,120
Speaker 1: Bay Area, I think Denver they also built their own.

563
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 1: Because they were twenty six and adjusted games, lost the injury.

564
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: I mean, they lost everybody on both sides of the ball.

565
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 1: You know, they lost the most EPA in NFL due

566
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 1: to turnovers, and that's largely due to Drew Lot. And

567
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 1: now you have a guy in Teddy Bridgewater who you know,

568
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: he's if you look up the definition of mediocre in

569
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: the dictionary. Teddy Bridgewater should be there smiling at you,

570
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: because that's all.

571
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 3: He's just a mediocre quarterback.

572
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: And this defense with Vic Fangio is gonna be good

573
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 1: enough to win you some games as long as you

574
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 1: don't have a guy who's just turning the ball over.

575
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 1: They go from the fifth toughest schedule to the second easiest.

576
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:35,719
Speaker 1: I really liked this team. I think he's gonna get

577
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: some positive aggression go over eight and a half wins.

578
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: I think it's a playoff team, but eight and a

579
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 1: half is right where they should be at.

580
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like Denver a lot.

581
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 5: To me, this team reminds me a whole lot of

582
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 5: like the Bears teams we've seen over the last decade,

583
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 5: the Jaguars from a few years ago when they had,

584
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 5: you know, teams that have an elite, elite defense and

585
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 5: then just enough offense. Just just don't be terrible, Just

586
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 5: don't screw up and throw it in a reception, you know,

587
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 5: and put the other team in the red zone. Just

588
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 5: stay out of the way and let our defense do

589
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 5: the thing. And that's why Teddy was the right player

590
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 5: to play quarterback. I would not like this team. If

591
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 5: they switch over to Drew Lock, I'm out. I want

592
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 5: no part of Drew Lock. I want Teddy to just

593
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 5: hand the ball off, throw some four yard passes to

594
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 5: his own teammates.

595
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:19,719
Speaker 2: That's it.

596
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 5: That's all I'm asking for, and that's exactly what Teddy

597
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 5: is supposed to do. So with a team like this,

598
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 5: you got to play the right schedule, and this is

599
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 5: the right schedule. Den Right a bottom of five schedule

600
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 5: last year. This year they by ESPN FPI, they have

601
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 5: the easiest schedule in the league. They have eight games

602
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 5: against teams that I have in the bottom ten Bengals, Lions, Eagles, Jets, Jaguars.

603
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: Giants, and then twice against the Raiders. Eight games.

604
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 5: That's half of your schedule. Well not anymore, but it's

605
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 5: eight out of seventeen of your schedule, So the schedule

606
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 5: breaks their way. The floor is high. The defense is

607
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 5: the best defense in the league. I think Bradley Chobb,

608
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 5: I love Von Miller being back, Kyle Fuller and Patrick's

609
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 5: retain at the corners, Justin Simmons plus Fangio like I

610
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 5: think this is a very good, high floor regular season

611
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 5: team that I can't wait to bet On all year

612
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 5: and then fade the moment we get to the playoffs

613
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 5: and everything changes. So that's the Broncos. We are seven

614
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 5: teams into the AFC Blitz. We have yet to talk

615
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 5: about anybody from that other division, the AFC South, and

616
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 5: that's where we're gonna head next. For the Colts and

617
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 5: the Titans. Boy, this division not great, not a great division.

618
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 5: We are not high in the teams in this division.

619
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 5: Let's start out with the Colts and whatever is left

620
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 5: of them. Carson Wentz is sitting at home in quarantine,

621
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 5: and it looks like he's going to be back, probably

622
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 5: like Thursday or Friday, before Week one. I think he's

623
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 5: practiced approximately twelve seconds with his new team at this point.

624
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 5: But you know, I guess he gets a little more

625
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 5: time to get healthy. Like I don't, Carson, You're my guy,

626
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 5: but I don't know what's happening anymore.

627
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: T Y Hilton is out.

628
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 5: Eric Fisher is supposed to be a left tackle, but

629
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 5: looks like he's not gonna be playing for a while.

630
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 5: Quentin Nelson, the left guard, the best player on the team,

631
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 5: is still out. Ryan Kelly is in quarantine. He's their center.

632
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 5: Like I don't know what's left on this offense. I

633
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 5: have the Colts as my division winner by default, but

634
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 5: I don't even like this is the least strong feeling

635
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 5: of default, Like their defense is pretty good. I kind

636
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 5: of have them just as like, well, they're a high

637
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 5: floor kind of a Denverish version that, like, sure they

638
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 5: can just win a few games. I don't even know

639
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 5: they can do that anymore. Did you trust these Colts

640
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 5: at all?

641
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: I don't trust this Coats team at all.

642
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 1: You know, when I watched that defense last year, I

643
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 1: always thought they were a little bit overrated by the metrics,

644
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: and I think that's going to continue this year. I mean,

645
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 1: I felt like they were really really lucky last year.

646
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 1: And they got Fisher from Kansas City on all offensive line,

647
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: but he's going to be out with achilles injury. They

648
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 1: don't have anybody to replace him. WinCE is just a

649
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: total mess. This guy's led the NFL and fumbles. He's

650
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: been a turnover machine. A lot of people are on

651
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 1: him thinking that, you know, Frank Wright is just going

652
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: to correct all his mistakes, but to me, he comes

653
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: off like a punch drunk Blaser. I mean, he's been

654
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: hit so many times that, and I just don't think

655
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: he's gonna be the same guy. So to me, I'm

656
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: going to coast minus one ten and miss the playoffs.

657
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 1: I'm not high on this team at all. I think

658
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 1: some of the other teams in the Division. Honestly, I'm

659
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: not that high on the Tennessee Titans.

660
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 3: I'm not that high on the Jacksonville Jaguars, but I

661
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 3: think one of them. Could you come through and still it.

662
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've got a couple of bets on my board

663
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 5: here for the Colts. But the more I talk about it,

664
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 5: the more we talk about it, I think I'm just

665
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 5: gonna pass on this team. I just don't feel good

666
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 5: about the team. I feel like things could really go

667
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 5: wrong here, and I'm just realizing I forgot to give

668
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 5: out my best bet for Denver. So I'm going to

669
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 5: pass on a Colt's best bet and circle back for

670
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 5: a Denver bet that I actually like instead. So tomorrow

671
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 5: at the Action Network, probably today as you are listening

672
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 5: to this, I have an article coming out on the

673
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 5: team that can go worse to first in the Division.

674
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 5: Sixteen of the eighteen years a team has gone worse

675
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 5: to first at least one team, and I think the

676
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 5: Denver Broncos can do.

677
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 2: It this year.

678
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:07,959
Speaker 5: If there's good as we say, and if the Chiefs

679
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 5: do take a step back, then they can get within

680
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 5: a game or two, and then who knows. And I

681
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 5: actually like how Denver matches up against Kansas City as well,

682
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 5: just running the ball, staying safe and playing a lot

683
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 5: of defense. Plus nine hundred for the Denver Broncos to

684
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 5: win the division. And here's another long shot for you

685
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 5: that I really like. Plus one thousand for the Broncos

686
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 5: to start four to oh. They start against the Giants,

687
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 5: the Jaguars, and the Jets. Those are bad teams that

688
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 5: the Broncos defense should let them win. And then they

689
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 5: are host to the Baltimore Ravens. I don't love them

690
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 5: in that matchup, but I don't hate it either. The

691
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 5: defense can keep them in it. And you got a

692
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,959
Speaker 5: great hedge opportunity because the Broncos are probably three and oh.

693
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,239
Speaker 5: I didn't find that anywhere to bet, but four and

694
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 5: oh for plus one thousand, I've got some outs there.

695
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 5: So that's my Colts bet is skipping the Colts and

696
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 5: betting on the Broncos instead. So if we're out on

697
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 5: the Colts, are we in on the Titans because that

698
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 5: is the other team the division, and I'll start because

699
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 5: I'm not. I'm not into the Titans. I'm not in

700
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 5: the Colts. I'm out on everything. I'm out on the

701
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 5: AFC South. I want badly to find anybody in this

702
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 5: division to bet on. But this is just a gut instinct.

703
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 5: I just feel with Arthur Smith gone on this team,

704
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 5: I just don't believe in them. Julio Jones is here,

705
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 5: but here's who's not here. Corey Davis is gone, John

706
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 5: Smith is gone, Jadavian Clowney, Adore Jackson, Malcolm Butler, Kenny Vakre.

707
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 5: There's a lot of guys gone from this team. And

708
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 5: Arthur Smith really elevated the offense. I don't know if

709
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 5: I trust Ryan Tannehill without him, Derrick Henry has like

710
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 5: seven thousand carries the last two years, and I don't

711
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 5: really trust that to keep up. Julio Jones is a

712
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 5: little over the hill at this point. Again, I want

713
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 5: to believe in Tennessee just because you have to believe

714
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 5: in somebody, But I don't know.

715
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: Do you like Tennessee at all? You know?

716
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 3: So interesting?

717
00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 1: I just wrote an article today about Derrick Henry the

718
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 1: curse of three hundred and seventy carries running backs and

719
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 1: how they perform with four hundred touches and why you

720
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 1: should be fading him this upcoming season. So that should

721
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 1: be out, you know, any second tonight tomorrow.

722
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 3: But I just wrote that. I actually just finish it today.

723
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: So I think the Titans are going to take a

724
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,239
Speaker 1: step back from that aspect, But more and more I

725
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: look at it. When I look at this division, it

726
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 1: feels like the NFC North to me. You know, I

727
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 1: came into this season feeling like I'm gonna fade the

728
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: Titans because Mike Varibowl was supposed to be a defensive

729
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: minded head coach and their defense has been horrible, and

730
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: you know, they haven't really done anything to improve the defense.

731
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 1: I know they brought in Blood Dupre, but I just

732
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 1: don't see how that changes too much for this team.

733
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 1: But they may end up winning this division by default.

734
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: And I think that's what it kind of looks like

735
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: to me, because when I look at the Jacksonville Jaguars,

736
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 1: it just feels like they're in over their head in

737
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: their first season with the head coach. When I look

738
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 1: at this Coats team, it feels like a mess. So

739
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,359
Speaker 1: it's just like, I just don't see how any other

740
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 1: team beats them. So for me, they're going to have

741
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:14,280
Speaker 1: a good enough offense. I think, you know, you have weapons,

742
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take the Titans to win the AFC

743
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 1: norfit minus one ten.

744
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:20,720
Speaker 3: I think it's it's.

745
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 1: Low enough to where you put yourself in a position

746
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: to where you can hedge. They should be Arizona week one,

747
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 1: and I think you can re evaluate it over the

748
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: course of the season.

749
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, my bed here is just on the Titans and

750
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 5: the Colts in either order to finish top two in

751
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 5: the division. It just it's a bet against Jacksonville and

752
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 5: Houston as much as it is on these two teams.

753
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 5: I think that even as much as I'm not in

754
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,839
Speaker 5: on the Culture Titans, there's still a floor there that's

755
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 5: going to keep them, you know, floating near the top

756
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 5: of the drowning division. But even that is at minus

757
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 5: two hundreds, I'm probably not going to put a lot

758
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 5: on there. So let's keep moving here as we continue

759
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 5: our blitz. And here's the team that I think our

760
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 5: listeners might be so prize we have not gotten to yet.

761
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 5: They are tenth on our list. They're the Miami Dolphins,

762
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 5: and a lot of people seem to just kind of

763
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 5: think the Dolphins are gonna be good again, that they're

764
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 5: gonna win nine, ten to eleven games, They're gonna be

765
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 5: a playoff team. I don't like the Dolphins, and I

766
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 5: don't really understand why everyone else likes the Dolphins either.

767
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 5: Their offensive line is not good. They don't have a

768
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 5: running back. I don't know if Tua can play yet.

769
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 5: The receivers should be good, but Devonte Parker always gives hurt.

770
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 5: Will Fuller always gives hurt. Jalen Watdall miss most the

771
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 5: last season, so I don't know what we're getting there.

772
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 5: The defense lost Calvan Noi, they lost Shaq Lawson. They

773
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 5: were good last year, but I'm a little worried there

774
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,719
Speaker 5: are some of those things that are unsustainable there. They

775
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 5: had a ton of interceptions, and that doesn't usually carry

776
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 5: over from year to year. They also were absolutely phenomenal

777
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 5: on third down. They were thirty one percent stop on

778
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 5: third down, which is by far the best. That's another

779
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 5: number that doesn't typically carry over from one year to

780
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 5: the next. So to me, Miami is my absolute favorite

781
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 5: regression team on the board. I think that you know,

782
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 5: they're at nine point five. The under nine point five

783
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,720
Speaker 5: is my favorite under, or favorite one on the entire board.

784
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 2: Here.

785
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 5: I have them at seven point seven. I actually might

786
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 5: look at the under seven and a half, which is

787
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 5: plus two ten. Another one is plus five hundred to

788
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 5: finish bottom of the division. I think it's in play

789
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 5: because I think New England has a floor.

790
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 2: I do like the Jets a little bit. I just

791
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 2: think Miami. I don't think they're gonna be bad, but

792
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 2: I don't think they'll be very good.

793
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're total in total agreement with that.

794
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 1: And you know, I was actually going to go under

795
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 1: nine and a half wins, but I actually, like you said,

796
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: I mean, they had a plus nine turnover differential. They

797
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: had eight interceptions, eleven fumbles. I mean, there were some

798
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: games where it just felt like the defense was just

799
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: scoring points for them. Anytime you have that type of turnover,

800
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,879
Speaker 1: look kind of regress to the mean the following year.

801
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 1: None of us are truly believers in TUA. I'm not

802
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 1: quite sure the Dolphins even believe in to Now, before

803
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 1: you make this bet, I think the first thing that

804
00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:58,919
Speaker 1: you want to do is you want to make sure

805
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 1: that they're not trading for to Shaun Watson. We don't

806
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 1: know the details of what's going on with him and

807
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: his status in his career, but there has been rumors

808
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 1: that the Dolphins won to trade for Watson, So I

809
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 1: think you want to make sure that that doesn't happen

810
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 1: before you you put your win total bin.

811
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 5: But I like the under Yeah, so we are out

812
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 5: on the Dolphins. Another team that I think we are

813
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 5: out on that a lot of people again seem to

814
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 5: have kind of in the playoff mix, and I just

815
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 5: don't think that they're quite the level that people are

816
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 5: assuming to be. The Pittsburgh Steelers. They're number eleven on

817
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 5: our list. Again, I think might be a surprise that

818
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 5: they're this low for us, so for him, I think

819
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 5: both of us are out on the Steelers. Why are

820
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 5: you out on the Pittsburgh this year?

821
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 1: I mean this, this Steelers deep team is just not

822
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 1: a team that I want to back. I mean, I

823
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 1: think they're a team to me that you know, the

824
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 1: Steelers have only had like four coaches in the history

825
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: of their entire existence, and it it went surprised me

826
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 1: to see Timeline out after this year. I mean, big

827
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: band is on his last legs. Mason Rudolph is the backup.

828
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 1: There's just so much downside with this team. This team,

829
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 1: they don't have a go offensive line. They still have

830
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 1: a top tier defense, but I think even that defense

831
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 1: is going to take a step bet so. I mean,

832
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 1: I just don't see a lot of upside the cream

833
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 1: of the crop in this division or the Browns and

834
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 1: the Ravens. I'm going under eight and a half wins

835
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 1: minus two hundred to miss the playoffs. I think, No,

836
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 1: there's no way in hell that this team is a

837
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,560
Speaker 1: playoff team. So that's where I'm going with.

838
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I can't quite get there on the no chance

839
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 5: of the playoffs, just because the AFC is so soft,

840
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 5: and if the defense is competent, you could get like

841
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 5: the Denver thing we're talking about here. I don't certainly

842
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 5: don't have them in, but yeah, I'm out on Pittsburgh.

843
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 5: The old line was decimated. Di Castro, Pouncy, and Villanueva

844
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 5: are all gone. I think the three guys they added

845
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 5: on this team are arguably downgrades from what they had before,

846
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 5: Like bud Dupree they brought in or bud Dupree is

847
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 5: gone and for Ingram. Now, I think that's their second

848
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 5: best pass rusher that's gone. They lost two of their

849
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 5: top three corners. Looks washed like Ben has looked washed

850
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,959
Speaker 5: for a couple of years. Big Ben is like so washed.

851
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 5: He's one of those like washed periods of jeans that

852
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 5: is tattered and faded, and like your mom is like, dude,

853
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 5: you got to throw those out. You can't wear those anymore,

854
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 5: but they're your favorites. You just keep wearing them year

855
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 5: after year. Like now it's time to go, Like, I

856
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:21,359
Speaker 5: think this is the end, and it might be past

857
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 5: the end. The Steelers were seven to two and one

858
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 5: score games last year. They're the fifth healthiest team, they

859
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 5: had the second easiest schedule. It's going to go the

860
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 5: other direction all that stuff this year. So I'm taking

861
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,240
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh under two and a half division wins at plus

862
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 5: one fifty. Again, we like Baltimore and Cleveland a lot.

863
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 5: I think it's very possible they go in four and

864
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 5: on those four games and that's it.

865
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 2: Then you're out.

866
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 5: So to go over to and out division wins, they

867
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 5: either have to beat Cincinnati both times and win one

868
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 5: of those games. And if they don't sweep Cincinnati, now

869
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 5: they got to win two of those other games. I

870
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 5: just don't see it, especially at plus one fifty.

871
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 2: I really like that one.

872
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,479
Speaker 3: Think about last year, they got really lucky. They played

873
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 3: a lot of backup quarterbacks.

874
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 1: They played RG three, they played Driscoll, they played Gilbert

875
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 1: Loutan Finley, Like, they're not going to be playing that

876
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 1: many backups this year. I mean, right off the gate,

877
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 1: you got Josh Allen and on your road. Then you

878
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 1: go to Vegas, then you go to Cincinnati, then you

879
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 1: got Green Bay.

880
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:18,720
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a tough schedule.

881
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 1: I mean they gotta face Russell Wilson, like they got

882
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 1: to play Pat Mahomes, they got.

883
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 3: A first play schedule. So yeah, it's looking rough for

884
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 3: them this year.

885
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,760
Speaker 5: If you just named off quarterbacks that I forgot existed

886
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 5: on the planet Earth, like, kudos on your memory, Luton

887
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 5: or these other guys like I forgot that they are

888
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 5: are humans that are still on the planet playing football somewhere.

889
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 5: So it's not that this year it's going to be bad.

890
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 5: Onto our bottom of five teams that we have out

891
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 5: of the playoffs, we actually have these five exactly the

892
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 5: same in order. So the next one at number twelve

893
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 5: is the Las Vegas Raiders. I think that both of

894
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 5: us probably don't hate the Raiders, it's just that we

895
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 5: like the division. It's a tough spot for them. The

896
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 5: Raiders blew up their line and the offensive line for

897
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 5: no reason. They overpaid Kenyan Drake for no reason, when

898
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 5: they've already, you know, spent so much on Josh Jacobs.

899
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 5: I just think that this team, they're kind of, to me,

900
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 5: the AFC version of the Cardinals in that I don't

901
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 5: trust the coach and coaching system, and I like the

902
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 5: other three teams in the division, I just don't believe

903
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 5: in the Raiders. So for me, the Raiders last in

904
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 5: the division is minus one eighty. I don't quite love that,

905
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,240
Speaker 5: just because I could see a couple of those other teams,

906
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 5: Chargers or Broncos like really falling out. Just in case,

907
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 5: here's what I do like. The Raiders can go all

908
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,879
Speaker 5: in six in the division and it's plus sixteen hundred,

909
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 5: and I like, again, I've got all three other teams

910
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 5: in division making the playoffs here, it's tough to go

911
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 5: on six year division. I only that the Raiders are

912
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 5: that bad necessarily, but at sixteen to one, I like

913
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,800
Speaker 5: my chances to just lose a bunch of games to

914
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 5: teams that are all clearly better.

915
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 1: To me, it's very tough to see anything. And this

916
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 1: is this is a perfectly average team. I mean, this

917
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 1: team hasn't reallyft it well. I mean, other than drafting

918
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 1: Waller in fantasy, there's not too many bets that I

919
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:06,760
Speaker 1: have for this this team.

920
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 3: I just think they're going to be a perfectly average team,

921
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 3: to be honest.

922
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 5: All right, well, let's move to our next team, which

923
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 5: is the New York Football Jets coming in thirteenth on

924
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 5: our list, not fourteenth, not fifteenth. Jets fans, you did it.

925
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 5: This is a super Bowl win. You moved up to

926
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 5: thirteenth on our list. And I think that's the thing

927
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 5: with the Jets. I think that they kind of move

928
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 5: up to us here. So you're you said that you're

929
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 5: really high on the Jets, So why do you like them?

930
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 3: I think they're going to have a decent offense.

931
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: You know, I did this on a radio show earlier,

932
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 1: but I think their offense is going to be solid.

933
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 1: You know, you got Zach Wilson and then you got

934
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 1: you know, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder.

935
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 3: You know, there was some sharp.

936
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: Money that actually hit the total in their opening game

937
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:45,760
Speaker 1: against the Panthers.

938
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 3: We like the over forty three. We grabbed that about

939
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:49,720
Speaker 3: a week ago. It's open.

940
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 1: It's up to forty four and a half right now.

941
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 1: I think if you're listening to this podcast, you might

942
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 1: want to grab it before it hits. The key number

943
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:59,240
Speaker 1: of forty five forty four and a half is forty

944
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 1: four is key, but forty five is also key.

945
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, I really liked that over. I think that

946
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 3: this offense is going to be slid.

947
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: They can't really stop anybody on defense, even though they

948
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:10,800
Speaker 1: brought in Robert Sala. But I think they're gonna be

949
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 1: one of those young, exciting teams that you you kind

950
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: of almost like if we were watching NBA League Pass.

951
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 1: They're a League Pass team, So I think that they're

952
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 1: one of those teams that you want to check out.

953
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:21,800
Speaker 1: They're gonna be fun to watch, kind of like the

954
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,720
Speaker 1: Chargers last year because they got a young rookie quarterback

955
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 1: and some decent weapons. Yeah.

956
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 5: I think the other thing too, that that cannot be

957
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 5: overstated is how much it matters to replace Adam Gase

958
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 5: with like a stick, like literally anything else, but not

959
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 5: just that I actually really like Robert Sala and I

960
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 5: really like Mike Lafleur running the offense. Like watching the preseason,

961
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 5: they're they're putting Zach Wilson in a really good spot

962
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 5: to succeed. They're giving him easy throws, They're making life

963
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 5: easy on him, and not every coach does that, Like

964
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,280
Speaker 5: that's that's why we're fading some of these other teams

965
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 5: like that, you know, the Bengals, who will talk about

966
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,919
Speaker 5: the second and the Cardinals. I think that they're gonna

967
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 5: make the Jets a lot better just by having competence,

968
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:06,960
Speaker 5: competence on the offensive line, competence at quarterback. Even if

969
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,800
Speaker 5: Zach Wilson is fine, that could be a huge upgrade

970
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 5: from the Sam Darnold. I think that just competence, can

971
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 5: I prove this team. So here's my longest shot on

972
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 5: the board. But I actually don't think it should be

973
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:19,959
Speaker 5: this long. So I think the Jets have a chance

974
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 5: to not finish in the bottom of this division. And

975
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 5: I don't like the Dolphins at all, and I don't

976
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 5: really love the Patriots. So I was looking at, Okay,

977
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 5: can the Jets move all the way up to second

978
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 5: in the division. I could see there being like all

979
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 5: three of those teams get like six seven eight wins.

980
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 5: So the Jets win a couple head to head games,

981
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:40,320
Speaker 5: they're plus six fifty to finish second. However, I already

982
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 5: know who's going to win the division. The Bills are

983
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 5: going to win the division. So I can take Bills first,

984
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 5: Jets second, plus eighteen hundred to get that one. That's

985
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 5: at bet MGM are odds sponsor, so eighteen to one

986
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 5: for the Jets to move all the way up to second,

987
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 5: And if you really want to go crazy, you can

988
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 5: go the exact go play all four in order, and

989
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:01,959
Speaker 5: if you think Miami is out and they're the bottom team,

990
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 5: I recommend it that one earlier. So the division goes

991
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 5: Bill's one, Jets two, Patriots three, Dolphins four. That's at

992
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 5: plus thirty five hundred. To me, those are long shot odds,

993
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 5: but I kind of think that's how the division orders out.

994
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 5: I could see the Jets doing just enough to sneak

995
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,359
Speaker 5: ahead of those teams. Am I absolutely crazy to think

996
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 5: at thirty five to one that we could end.

997
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 2: Up with that order.

998
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 3: I don't know, man, it's tough.

999
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 1: I wouldn't take the bet, but I mean, I just

1000
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 1: think I think for me, I'm high on the Patriots,

1001
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,479
Speaker 1: and I don't think the Buffalo is gonna drop that low.

1002
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 1: So I'm struggling with it.

1003
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 5: Fair enough, I don't think I'm gonna take it. It's

1004
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 5: kind of like the story of Raheem and Brandon talking

1005
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 5: about bets. So let's move on to the Bengals, our

1006
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 5: last non abysmal team in the AFC. The Bengals are

1007
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 5: kind of my version of the Panthers, a team that

1008
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 5: I just haven't thought a ton about because I don't

1009
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 5: think that they're very good.

1010
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,760
Speaker 2: I don't think that they're awful. The divis a tough.

1011
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,919
Speaker 5: I don't like Zach Taylor coaching this team. They lost

1012
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,720
Speaker 5: a lot of talent. Carl Lawson's gone, William Jackson's gone,

1013
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 5: Gino Atkins. I just feel like the Bengals are in

1014
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 5: kind of an in between. They're getting better in time,

1015
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 5: but not yet. I'm under six and a half on them.

1016
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 5: I don't have too much else to say. What do

1017
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 5: you think about Cincinnati?

1018
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,799
Speaker 1: We're both out on Zach Tayler. They don't have a

1019
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: great offensive line at all. The defenses, like you said,

1020
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:25,839
Speaker 1: they lost their best defenderal on William Jackson. He's going

1021
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 1: over to the Washington football team, who I love. I

1022
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:30,760
Speaker 1: think the under six and a half is totally in play.

1023
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 3: I'm with you, all right.

1024
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 5: Well, we've got two teams left in our blitz, and

1025
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 5: we're back to the teams of the division that we

1026
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 5: have been hating on throughout the AFC South. So we

1027
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 5: got the Jaguars and the Texans. We don't like the Colts,

1028
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 5: we don't like the Titans. That should mean that maybe

1029
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:51,879
Speaker 5: maybe one of these teams could break through and win

1030
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 5: the division. It's sure as heck doesn't seem like it

1031
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 5: could be the Texans. So could it be the Jaguars.

1032
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 5: They were one in fifty in last year. The one

1033
00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 5: was in Week one against the Colts. So they're on

1034
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 5: a fifteen game losing streak. I have them bottom seven

1035
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 5: on offense and on defense. The reason why I can't

1036
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 5: quite get behind this team right now is Trevor Lawrence

1037
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 5: and Urban Meyer. I like Lawrence, but I don't quite

1038
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:16,720
Speaker 5: love him the way that I think he's been hyped

1039
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 5: up in draft circles. I don't think he's the next

1040
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 5: Andrew Locke to come through the draft. He also has

1041
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 5: played He played on the best team in high school

1042
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 5: and the best team in college, Like, he had so

1043
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 5: much talent around him, and now he's on the Jaguars.

1044
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 5: So I think that's going to be a rood adjustment

1045
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 5: in Urban Meyer, same sort of thing. Urban didn't have

1046
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,879
Speaker 5: to be like, wait, we have who at linebacker? What's

1047
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 5: our offensive line? He could just go out and like

1048
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 5: recruit seven more guys and be like, that's our offensive line. Now,

1049
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 5: what do you feel about that? You can't do that

1050
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 5: in the NFL. That's not what the Jaguars are.

1051
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 3: Like.

1052
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 2: This is the bad place Jaguars, not the good place Jaguars.

1053
00:47:52,440 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 2: So I don't know.

1054
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 5: I so badly want to talk myself into this team

1055
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 5: to win the division, but I really struggle to find

1056
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 5: something you like about them.

1057
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 3: I mean, I think the thing that they like about

1058
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 3: this team is positive regression.

1059
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:08,399
Speaker 1: I mean, they were zero and five and in one

1060
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: score games, they were twenty seventh in turnover differential. This team,

1061
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 1: at some point you're gonna regress. I mean, you're not

1062
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,919
Speaker 1: gonna be twenty seventh in turnovers two years in a row.

1063
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 1: They're gonna force more takeaways. They got Shaquille Griffin, they

1064
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 1: got a better quarterback. I'm not really high on Urban Minor.

1065
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 1: I think he's a little in over his head. But

1066
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 1: I just I just think they had some really, really

1067
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 1: really bad luck.

1068
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 3: Last year.

1069
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 1: They were competitive, they were one to fifteen, and it

1070
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 1: didn't feel like they were as bad as what we

1071
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 1: expect Houston to be this year.

1072
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:42,720
Speaker 5: No, I agree, So before we get to Houston, here's

1073
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 5: my bet that you can't make right now. But here

1074
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 5: here's what I'm gonna recommend. That's a little crazy. So

1075
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 5: Jacksonville and Houston play each other week one. So unless

1076
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 5: they kiss their sister in tie, one of these teams

1077
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,800
Speaker 5: has to get a win the first week. Jacksonville's favored,

1078
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 5: but I actually think Houston might win that game. So

1079
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 5: here's my play. What if you wait this out. Is

1080
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence debuting on the road as a rookie, it's

1081
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,959
Speaker 5: Urban Myers first first time. If they lose that game,

1082
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:13,320
Speaker 5: like look, we spent all months and months talking about

1083
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 5: how bad Houston is, We're going to get back to them.

1084
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:19,800
Speaker 5: In a second. Houston steals the win in a close game. Now,

1085
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 5: finally the Jaguars odds bottom out and the division. Now

1086
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 5: I'm going to bet them to win the division because

1087
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 5: right now the odds aren't enough for me to bother

1088
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 5: risking it. But we agree the division is really bad.

1089
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 5: And if they lose to the Texans in Week one,

1090
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 5: and it's like, wait, the team that was supposed to

1091
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 5: be the worst in the league just beat you, those

1092
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 5: odds plummet, and now I might nibble a little bit

1093
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 5: just to see, just to see what could happen in

1094
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 5: a horrible division? Am I am I crazy?

1095
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you there. I mean, like I think,

1096
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 3: you know, we spoke.

1097
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:53,720
Speaker 1: Earlier about how we're not really high on the Coats,

1098
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 1: We're not really that high on the Titans. You know,

1099
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 1: obviously I took the Titans to make the playoffs just

1100
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 1: because I think they're they're probably on paper they have

1101
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:04,280
Speaker 1: the best offense in his division. But I'm not mad at,

1102
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,319
Speaker 1: you know, taking a flyer on the Jaguars. I mean

1103
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 1: every year, I think, you know, Stuck you did an

1104
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: article on worse to first, and I think he mentioned

1105
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, and I'm I think it's a good flyer.

1106
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 2: Well, let's Finn shot up talking about the Texans.

1107
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 3: Here.

1108
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 5: As we said, the Texans play the Jaguars in Week one,

1109
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,839
Speaker 5: I think Houston has just scheduled Bishop Sycamore in Week two,

1110
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 5: and then Houston's actually a three point underdog in that game.

1111
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 5: This team is awful. Like on my I keep a

1112
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 5: spreadsheet ranking all the position groups and green for good,

1113
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,400
Speaker 5: red for bad, depending on where I got the number.

1114
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 5: Here's the spots where Texans are bold, red where they're

1115
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 5: very bad, among the worst in the league. Here's the

1116
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 5: position groups quarterback, running back, receiver, tight end, offensive line,

1117
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 5: defensive line, edge rusher, safety, special teams, and coach.

1118
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 2: Guess what, that's pretty much the football team.

1119
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 5: I just listed off all the positions on the football

1120
00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 5: team except for cornerback and linebacker. Those are the only

1121
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 5: two positions where they're not awful. This roster is terrible. Houston,

1122
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 5: going oh and six in the division, is plus seven hundred.

1123
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:07,560
Speaker 3: I know.

1124
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 5: I literally just said I think that they might win

1125
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 5: the first week, but I think if they don't win

1126
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 5: that game, that's like this is their most winnable game

1127
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 5: on the schedule, a home game against Jacksonville. Like, if

1128
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:19,840
Speaker 5: they don't win that one, I don't know when the

1129
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 5: next win is coming. No matter how bad Indianapolis and

1130
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 5: Tennessee get I don't think they're beating them. So if

1131
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,919
Speaker 5: they do lose the first week, then you really only

1132
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:29,960
Speaker 5: have to fade another Jacksonville game to get to the

1133
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 5: seven hundred on the oh and six in the division.

1134
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 5: So is there any reason for any should anyone even

1135
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 5: watch Houston play football this year?

1136
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're betting, I mean, I think the

1137
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 1: first couple of weeks of the season, I think there's

1138
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 1: always some value betting on teams before the lines that

1139
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 1: just I think at some point we could see we

1140
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:51,359
Speaker 1: could see Houston catching sixteen to seventeen, maybe twenty at

1141
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:51,760
Speaker 1: some point.

1142
00:51:51,880 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 5: So so, just just to kind of wrap things up

1143
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 5: here on our blitz, I'm not sure our blitz made

1144
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 5: it home again. We came out strong, but there's so

1145
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 5: many teams out here, and the AFC is Patrick Mahomes

1146
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:06,840
Speaker 5: just mowing us down. But Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs,

1147
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 5: along with the Browns and the Ravens, those are the

1148
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 5: teams that we think are the teams to beat in

1149
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 5: the AFC. Maybe the Bills, depending on what you think

1150
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 5: about them. After that, it gets really murky. Maybe it's

1151
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:20,360
Speaker 5: the Patriots, maybe not for me. Maybe it's the Chargers,

1152
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:22,920
Speaker 5: maybe not for Raheem, Denver is a team that we

1153
00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 5: like in there the AFC South. God knows what's gonna happen.

1154
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 5: So as we wrap up here, I'm gonna give you

1155
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 5: my three best bets from today, and then Raheem, let's

1156
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:36,400
Speaker 5: get your three best bets as well. So for me today,

1157
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:39,880
Speaker 5: looking back at everything we talked about, I like Baltimore

1158
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:41,839
Speaker 5: and Cleveland to finish top two in the division at

1159
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 5: minus one twenty five. I'm gonna pair with that too.

1160
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:46,760
Speaker 5: One I haven't actually said yet. I like the AFC

1161
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:49,359
Speaker 5: in North to win the AFC Conference at plus two

1162
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 5: to eighty. I've been talking about how I'm not in

1163
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 5: on the Bills and I'm sort of fading the Chiefs

1164
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 5: that leaves Cleveland and Baltimore, so that kind of ties

1165
00:52:57,520 --> 00:52:59,800
Speaker 5: with that one Buffalo to win the division at my

1166
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 5: one sixty and then just fading fading the Miami Dolphins

1167
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 5: in all the ways I can fade them under nine

1168
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:09,239
Speaker 5: and a half five hundred, last in the division, all

1169
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:11,760
Speaker 5: the other ways. So those are my best bets, Rahiem,

1170
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 5: what are yours from today?

1171
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:16,239
Speaker 1: I just realized you totally skipped over me making my

1172
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 1: bet on the Houston Texans. My bet on the Houston

1173
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 1: Texas was the Texans exact finishing position is fourth minus

1174
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:27,040
Speaker 1: two thirty. That is stealing money. So I think that's

1175
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 1: gonna be probably one of my best bets. The other

1176
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 1: one would obviously be the Broncos over eight and a

1177
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 1: half wins. You know, you guys know, I'm really really

1178
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 1: high on the Broncos. And then the last one, I

1179
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:40,200
Speaker 1: think I'm going to go with the Cleveland Browns. All

1180
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,280
Speaker 1: three of the bets over ten and a half wins,

1181
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,960
Speaker 1: Browns that win a Bowl plus sixty hundred and Browns

1182
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 1: plus seven to fifty to win an AFC.

1183
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 3: We're hiring the brown So we're rolling with.

1184
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 2: Them, all in on the Cleveland Browns train. Let's go.

1185
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 5: So that is going to wrap it up for our

1186
00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 5: AFC preview blitz. Don't forget to check out the blitz

1187
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 5: from earlier this week. Don't forget out those wind total

1188
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:06,360
Speaker 5: over unders from Stucky, Raybon and Kerner. That's all on

1189
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:09,320
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast feed. Make sure check out the

1190
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 5: Fantasy Flex too. It's a Labor Day weekend coming up.

1191
00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 5: I know a lot of you got your drafts out there.

1192
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 5: Raybon and Curner just had a great props podcast, and

1193
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 5: Samantha Praviti has her weekly episode just launch of this

1194
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:21,919
Speaker 5: week Hereheem and I will be back later this week

1195
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,720
Speaker 5: with our season leaders. So who's gonna lead the NFL

1196
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 5: in passing yards, rushing yards, receiving touchdowns, all that good stuff.

1197
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:30,839
Speaker 5: We've got lots of articles covering all those all week

1198
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 5: long as well. Starting next week, NFL is back on Wednesdays.

1199
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:39,240
Speaker 5: You will get Raybon and Stucky's NFL Betting Guide every

1200
00:54:39,280 --> 00:54:41,320
Speaker 5: week Whereheem and I will be with you on Monday

1201
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 5: and Friday.

1202
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:43,040
Speaker 2: Early in the week.

1203
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,239
Speaker 5: We will recap the games from a Sunday from a

1204
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:47,840
Speaker 5: betting point of view. We'll look at Monday night football

1205
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 5: and get some early week hot reads, and then Friday

1206
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:53,000
Speaker 5: we will be back for a quick run up and

1207
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 5: down the NFL betting board heading into the weekend. That

1208
00:54:56,719 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 5: is going to wrap it up for our podcast for today.

1209
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 5: I'm Brandon Anderson for Raheem Palmer. Thanks for listening, and

1210
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:03,879
Speaker 5: we'll see us soon.