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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action. All right.

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Speaker 1: Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing spect we're sitting.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash touchdown. We'll see most gamble is when

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Speaker 1: they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Being bank small banks, I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 1: this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 2: You want to.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm

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Speaker 2: your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined by Brandon

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Speaker 2: Anderson for some best bets brandfl week four. We will

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Speaker 2: get to those shortly, but first I want to have

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Speaker 2: some fun trends, some talking points. I think the last

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Speaker 2: one Brandon's gonna have probably the most of interest in,

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Speaker 2: and we'll discuss before we get into his content. But

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Speaker 2: let's start here. So, according to Action Network betting data,

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Speaker 2: teams of sixty plusate tickets are four and seventeen against

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Speaker 2: the spread through three weeks this season. Through three weeks,

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Speaker 2: that is the worst ATS mark for those public betters

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Speaker 2: in the twenty three year history of our database. Don't

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Speaker 2: have the numbers next to me, but I know through

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Speaker 2: three weeks it was atrocious last year as well. It

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Speaker 2: is in my article on actionetwork dot Com. But tough

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Speaker 2: start for the public. And here's a fun one as well.

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Speaker 2: So if you look at teams who are trailing at

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Speaker 2: the half this year, they are twenty eight and sixteen,

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Speaker 2: sixty four percent against the second half spread. Betting teams

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Speaker 2: to trail at the half has been a profitable angle

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Speaker 2: for a few years now. Those teams are about for

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Speaker 2: one hundred dollars better, would be up sixty four hundred

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Speaker 2: dollars for a seven point seven percent ROI trailing at

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Speaker 2: the half since twenty twenty two. If I look at

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Speaker 2: it's about one hundred games above five hundred and one more,

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Speaker 2: which I think Brandon's interested in. Most Steelers, Packers, Bears,

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Speaker 2: and Falcons all have bye weeks coming up next after

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Speaker 2: this one. Teams with a bye week coming up in

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Speaker 2: their next game actually pretty well fifty six point seven

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Speaker 2: percent of games winning, covering almost fifty eight percent of

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Speaker 2: games when you look in the last decade, Brandon, what's

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Speaker 2: your opinion on that one?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's interesting. I mean, first of all, were

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Speaker 1: the bye weeks already? How did we get here? Like

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Speaker 1: I feel like we just started. So that was the

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Speaker 1: first thing.

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Speaker 2: The craziest thing about the bie weeks to me is

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Speaker 2: the Giants. I don't think it's what week fourteen, and

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Speaker 2: that's why you know some of the reasons with dark.

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Speaker 2: But it's crazy that the episode wide.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's especially weird. I believe Week thirteen there are

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Speaker 1: no bye weeks, and then so we take like a

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Speaker 1: we take a bye week from bye weeks and then

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Speaker 1: come back for a few more teams at the end.

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Speaker 1: And I forget who else it is, but it's definitely

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Speaker 1: a few teams at the NFL just like ah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're getting screwed by who cares week fourteen. Let's just

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Speaker 1: throw them there. So congrats to the Giants, Jackson dar Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll see how you look this week. So interesting among

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Speaker 1: these teams you named them Steelers, Packers, Bears, Falcons. I

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Speaker 1: would be curious what the number you said looks like.

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Speaker 1: Because the Steelers are taking the bye week coming off

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Speaker 1: of the International. We're gonna get to that one shortly.

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Speaker 1: First game ever in Dublin. Most teams do take the

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Speaker 1: buye a week after international break. I think the NFL

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Speaker 1: she gives them the option to do that. The Vikings

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Speaker 1: are not on buy because the Vikings state International, So

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Speaker 1: they're back to back Sunday morning. Get excited for that,

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Speaker 1: Carson Owentz every morning of your life. So I'm curious, though,

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Speaker 1: what that number would look like if we look at

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Speaker 1: the non international versus the international teams, because I've got

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Speaker 1: an opposing trend we'll get to. I do have a

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Speaker 1: pick on that Steelers Vikings game, and so I'm curious

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Speaker 1: going into that bye week. I'm on Packers. That was

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Speaker 1: the hot read. I've got to pick on Packers. There

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Speaker 1: Bears Falcons. Those are pretty coin flippy looking games. I

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Speaker 1: tend to not love those sort of ones, but I've

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Speaker 1: seen a lot of folks at action on the Falcons

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Speaker 1: in that one as well. But yeah, it's important to

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Speaker 1: keep track of the team coming off the buye because

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Speaker 1: you get extra arrest, but we kind of forget about

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Speaker 1: that going into the bye You can sort of empty

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Speaker 1: the tank a little bit, right, your guys, If you

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Speaker 1: might be kind of fifty to fifty, maybe you bump

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Speaker 1: them to sixty forty because they can play and then

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Speaker 1: get a little rest, or maybe the opposite. Maybe you're like,

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Speaker 1: you know what, what if we give them this week off,

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Speaker 1: then they get three weeks still until we have to

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Speaker 1: play them again. So it's definitely a thing to keep

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Speaker 1: in mind as you're looking at your bets.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we talk about sandwich spots. We say,

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Speaker 2: like look ahead spots where we look ahead, but we

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Speaker 2: tend not to look at the buy coming up. Don't.

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Speaker 2: But you do make a good point in terms of overseas.

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Speaker 2: I would I kind of want to split it up,

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Speaker 2: and you're right, kind of take a look at that.

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Speaker 2: All right, So before we move on, don't forget to

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Speaker 2: sign up for action Pro for real time pick alerts

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Speaker 2: from experts like Brandon myself, our entire action network team.

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Speaker 2: Plus you can access our pro projections powered by Sean

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Speaker 2: Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Just go to actionework

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Speaker 2: dot com slash pro. Get twenty dollars off the annual

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Speaker 2: All right, it is the main course. Let's get to

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Speaker 2: some Week four NFL best bets. If you want to

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Speaker 2: tail some of these bets. Look for the quick slip

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Speaker 2: link in the podcast and video description, or go to

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Speaker 2: actionetwork dot com. Slash bet now has all the bets

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Speaker 2: just listed there. Click and bet real easy.

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Speaker 1: This is your best bet.

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Speaker 2: All right, Brandy, we are going to start in overseas

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Speaker 2: land Dublin Vikings Steelers. What's your move here? I mean

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Speaker 2: you're a Vikings fan, right, what are you doing? Come on?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it looks like we are doubling up on Vikings.

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Speaker 1: We took Carson Wentz last week. It went well, not

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Speaker 1: really anything to do with Carson, let's be honest. But

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Speaker 1: we're back again. Vikings minus two and a half against

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Speaker 1: the Steelers, obviously neutral side. I think we'll get a

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Speaker 1: lot of fans, probably from both teams. I think both

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Speaker 1: teams fan bases should travel pretty well. Vikings I think

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Speaker 1: are a bit underrated right now, which is crazy that

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Speaker 1: that is not a thing that I typically think about

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Speaker 1: my own team. I'm usually the nihilist here, but I

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Speaker 1: think health plays a big role in that. Christian Darisa

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Speaker 1: left Tack was back last week, huge huge difference maker.

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Speaker 1: Basically erase Trey Hendrickson from the Bengals. Now looks like

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Speaker 1: Ryan Kelly is back at center. He practiced this week.

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Speaker 1: He's coming off concussion. He's already a full practice on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: He should be good to go. I think by kickoff,

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Speaker 1: we'll see. Obviously, the flight kind of makes things a

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Speaker 1: little bit trickier there. But Andrew ben Ginkgo is back,

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Speaker 1: Harrison Smith is back. Those are really key players on

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Speaker 1: this team that those four names are probably a two

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Speaker 1: points to the spread difference for me. This Minnesota line

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Speaker 1: still not totally healthy now. Left guard Donovan Jackson is

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Speaker 1: out probably till after the bye, but even without him,

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Speaker 1: probably the weak link for now. Anyways, as a rookie,

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Speaker 1: this is the best Minnesota line in years, and they

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Speaker 1: ran really wellat week. This is a team that has

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Speaker 1: not run well under Kevin O'Connell. But Aaron Jones injury

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Speaker 1: maybe open the door for Jordan Mason. Mason had a

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Speaker 1: huge game. The line is gonna block well. I think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna run on the Steelers, and really, if you're

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Speaker 1: just gonna zoom out, there's one unit on the field

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Speaker 1: that is the reliable and best unit, and that's the

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Speaker 1: Vikings defense. They're second in DBOA and you know Brian

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Speaker 1: Floores is gonna bring pressure. So Pittsburgh can't run the

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Speaker 1: football this year. So now it's on Aaron Rodgers to

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Speaker 1: beat pressure. And you know, remember back in Week one,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers throws I think four touchdowns and we're seeing

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Speaker 1: some like, oh, Rogers comeback Player of the Year, Rogers MVP. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let me hit you with the data. PFF grade at quarterback,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers ranks thirty fifth of thirty six quarterbacks so far.

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Speaker 1: He's had a bo Nicks and that's it. And if

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Speaker 1: you go by just under pressure, he's dead last six

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Speaker 1: of twenty two, twenty seven percent under pressure, two interceptions.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna go well at all for

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. And you know, if you're gonna argue, okay,

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Speaker 1: one of the Steelers defense, are they as good as

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Speaker 1: the Vikings? I thought they were before the season. I

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Speaker 1: had them ranked ahead. I don't think that anymore. That

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Speaker 1: defense looks pretty fraudulent. They've allowed almost four hundred yards

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Speaker 1: of game so far to these teams, the Jets, the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: and the Patriots, what at least three hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: one yards all three of those games, thirty one points

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Speaker 1: and two of them fourteen last week. Because the Patriots

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Speaker 1: turnover five times, Steelers defense has eight turnovers already. That's great,

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Speaker 1: but not necessarily repeatable. So maybe they keep the magic going.

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Speaker 1: But in all likelihood that is a flawed defense giving

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Speaker 1: up chunks of yardage. And I think Minnesota can have

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Speaker 1: the advantage offense and defense here. And the last thing

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Speaker 1: the Stata mentioned, So Steelers into the buy that favors

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Speaker 1: them a little bit except international games if you take

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Speaker 1: out Jacksonville games, because we know Jacksonville is basically home overseas,

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Speaker 1: right they play so many game games overseas games excluding

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars international games, just take the favorite. The favorite

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Speaker 1: is twenty six and eleven ats seventy percent. You just

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Speaker 1: bet the favorite on neutral field. That makes sense. Take

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Speaker 1: the team that's better. I'm a little bummed because that's

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Speaker 1: what I thought on Sunday night. This was a possible

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Speaker 1: hot read for me, and it was basically like an

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Speaker 1: even money line. And then now it's up to minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half. But three remains by far the

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Speaker 1: key number that you want to stay under. We're stilling

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Speaker 1: to the key number. Carson Wentz might be about to

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Speaker 1: win three games. And three countries in three weeks, and

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Speaker 1: there's no way I'm not being part of that. So

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Speaker 1: Vikings minus two and a half, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean, yeah, the only thing I gotta tell you is

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Speaker 2: Carson wentz one and zho international games. Aaron Rodgers owing

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Speaker 2: to any other stat I'm gonna tell you is just

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Speaker 2: irrelevant now. I mean, line opened one and a half

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Speaker 2: to two and a half now. But listen, both teams

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Speaker 2: getting there at the same time, because I've looked into

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Speaker 2: some things about the team with you know, gets there earlier,

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Speaker 2: tends to have an advantage earlier in the game, which

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Speaker 2: tends to have a better result in the game overall.

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Speaker 2: But it doesn't really matter anymore. Both teams actually also

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Speaker 2: have some international experience. O'Connell's done it, and Tomlin's done it,

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Speaker 2: and Rogers has done it as well. So I think

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Speaker 2: the pressure thing is the thing that matters the most.

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Speaker 2: I mean, not only this last year Minnesota Vikings defense,

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Speaker 2: who we kind of loved as well, we're fifteenth in

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Speaker 2: pressure percentage this year, they're the highest in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: number one, so obviously things have even gotten better there.

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Speaker 2: And you mentioned the six of twenty two with Rogers

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Speaker 2: that's crazy. I think the one that's even crazier is

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Speaker 2: he's fifty of sixty four in a clean pocket, So

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Speaker 2: not only is the other side terrible, but when he

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Speaker 2: can see downfield and things are going well, he's throwing

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Speaker 2: four touchdowns against the Jets, So I do think there's

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Speaker 2: a difference here. But have fun with this one. It's

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Speaker 2: going to be great with some coffee in the morning.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's no way we're not betting the first

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning game of the year, the first ever game

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Speaker 1: in Dublin. By the way, you said, Rogers own two

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Speaker 1: international I think one of those was against the Vikings,

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Speaker 1: I believe last year, so perhaps another one here.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rowlin. This is an interesting one

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Speaker 2: because this line has gone up a few points, but

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Speaker 2: you're looking at the total end and it's Cleveland and Detroit.

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Speaker 2: What are you doing there?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Browns are up to like plus ten. I

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Speaker 1: definitely have was eyeing the Browns. We talked about them

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Speaker 1: last week, ended up not doing it, and the Browns

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Speaker 1: got the win outright in Green Bay or sorry, I

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Speaker 1: think it was in Cleveland. But against the Packers, I'm

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Speaker 1: just gonna stick with the play we did last week,

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Speaker 1: which also did hit for us. Give me the under

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Speaker 1: under forty four and a half, easy, easy under. Last week,

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Speaker 1: it's ten to nothing until the last few minutes. Even

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Speaker 1: as the Packers blow it, it's still never a doubt

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Speaker 1: on the under. And I think if you kind of

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Speaker 1: like the Browns, similarly, we said last week, if the

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Speaker 1: Browns do keep it close, it's got to be the under, right,

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Speaker 1: So this is sort of a proxy way for that,

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Speaker 1: and you can kind of hit it some other ways,

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Speaker 1: because first, I don't have to tell you the Browns

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Speaker 1: aren't going to score. The Browns aren't going to score.

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Speaker 1: They've scored so far this season sixteen, seventeen and thirteen points.

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Speaker 1: Here's a crazy stat for you from clap to on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: Last sixteen games without Jamis Winston involved, the Browns have

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Speaker 1: not topped eighteen points once. Ever, that's an entire season

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Speaker 1: of Brown's football without topping eighteen points. They're fifteen to

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Speaker 1: one to the team total over. So if you just

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Speaker 1: want to go under on Browns, I get that, But

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Speaker 1: I like betting on the Browns defense also to play

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Speaker 1: in here giving us a few more outs. Brown's defense

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Speaker 1: has been awesome. They're third in DVOWAY, They're number one

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Speaker 1: in run defense. They've allowed barely over two hundred yards

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Speaker 1: a game so far to Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love. Like, this is not bad teams or bad quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: They're not screwing around like Jim Schwartz. Defense is back.

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Speaker 1: They allowed seventeen points the Packers, ten points to Sorry,

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Speaker 1: ten to the Packers, seventeen to the Bengals. They did

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Speaker 1: allow forty one to the Ravens, but that game was

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Speaker 1: a total thirty into the fourth quarter and then they

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Speaker 1: just kind of fell apart with all the Browns turnovers,

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Speaker 1: which look that can happen again, but that's the risk

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Speaker 1: with an under Lions. Their line looked great blocking last

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Speaker 1: week against the and against the Bears. Neither of those

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Speaker 1: teams has done anything good with this defensive line. This

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Speaker 1: is a very different animal we saw against the Packers,

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Speaker 1: who have a great defensive line. Only thirteen points for

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Speaker 1: the Lions, forty six rushing yards. The Lions want to run.

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Speaker 1: The Browns of the number one run defense, Mason Graham,

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Speaker 1: the rookie Miles Garrett is awesome as always. I just

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Speaker 1: think this is a matchup We're gonna not see a

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Speaker 1: lot of points, and it's hard to make a case

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Speaker 1: the Browns could actually win to in a row like this.

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Speaker 1: You don't see huge underdogs pull that off usually. But

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Speaker 1: it's a short week for the Lions after a tough,

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Speaker 1: physical Ravens game. Obvious emotional letdown spot. Also, I just

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Speaker 1: think the Browns, you know, fading the Browns looking for

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Speaker 1: unders where you can on this team seems like the

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Speaker 1: way to play them right now, both for their offense

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Speaker 1: and their defense. So give me the under forty four

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'll give you a few facts kind of backing you

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Speaker 2: up here. I mean, historically double digit home favorites leaned under.

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Speaker 2: It's like fifty three to fifty four percent. I just

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Speaker 2: looked this up on the fly because I was curious

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Speaker 2: double digit favor double digit underdogs who cover last decade,

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Speaker 2: it's under at about fifty seven percent. So if you're

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Speaker 2: right and the brown show up and make this a

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Speaker 2: tighter game in this side you liked, seems to lean

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Speaker 2: under anyway, this is this doesn't really help your case,

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Speaker 2: but I was curious. Lowis goff over under in about

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Speaker 2: a year and a half. December of twenty three, so

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Speaker 2: I think it's you know, baked in a little bit there.

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Speaker 2: But I think in your favor is this one. So

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Speaker 2: I look this up. Detroit at about thirty seconds per

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Speaker 2: snap on offense this year, second highest in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: Arizona's first for anyone curious, and highest mark last two seasons.

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Speaker 2: And they don't run no huddle, so it's not like

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Speaker 2: they're running out there every time. They don't have a

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Speaker 2: quarterback that exactly needs that in their offense, so they

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Speaker 2: run pretty slow and that's good for your under and

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Speaker 2: I kind of like it, so I think it makes sense.

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Speaker 2: But again, you look at the total and you say

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Speaker 2: to yourself, well, it's low for a reason. But in

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Speaker 2: that case, I think it's still probably a little bit

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Speaker 2: too high.

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Speaker 1: So I'm with you, yeah, And it's it's at forty

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Speaker 1: four and a half. It's ahead of a bunch of

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Speaker 1: key numbers too, And I don't love that it hasn't

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Speaker 1: really budgeted all this week, so I don't think that

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Speaker 1: that means that it's really moving that direction. I love

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Speaker 1: to see a little more support on totals, but I

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Speaker 1: like Staying has some of those key numbers, and again

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Speaker 1: I like taking the game under rather than Brown's under,

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Speaker 1: because the Browns might go under but way under, and

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Speaker 1: the Browns score like six points, then actually I would

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Speaker 1: hit that under. But now I only have to you know,

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Speaker 1: fade like a forty point game from the Lions, and

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Speaker 1: I still hit the game under as well. So I

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Speaker 1: think if I like the Browns defense holding the Lions

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Speaker 1: in check and I like the Browns not to score

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Speaker 1: that well, that kind of gives me two different paths

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Speaker 1: to get a low score.

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Speaker 2: There. Yeah, I did look this up, so I backed

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Speaker 2: you up here. So since the start the last season,

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Speaker 2: Cleveland's face three teams who are scoring thirty plus points

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Speaker 2: per game. They lost by twenty four, twenty five, and

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Speaker 2: twenty one, so if they get blown out, it's just

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Speaker 2: going to help your case. All right, Le's go to

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Speaker 2: your next bet here. What the heck are you going

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Speaker 2: to do with the Saints and the Bills? I mean,

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Speaker 2: the line has gone from sixteen and a half to

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Speaker 2: fifteen and a half. So I don't know. I agree

333
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Speaker 2: with you that I don't necessarily think the line is

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Speaker 2: the right move, but I feel like there is an

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Speaker 2: actionable call here. So which one you going with?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? This Honestly, when I first looked at this, I

337
00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:23,160
Speaker 1: was like, easy cross off. I don't need anything here,

338
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Speaker 1: Like who cares about a sixteen point? You know, fifteen,

339
00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:29,400
Speaker 1: sixteen seven, Like we're past the key numbers. I don't care.

340
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Speaker 1: What do the Bills care if they win by fourteen

341
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Speaker 1: or seventeen? I don't need any part of that. Normally,

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Speaker 1: this is where I'd come on and tell you Saints

343
00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,960
Speaker 1: plus nine hundred and the money line because since twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 1: money line dogs seven to fifty plus or longer four

345
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 1: and sixteen straight up. But that's like an eighty percent

346
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Speaker 1: ROI because you're getting these crazy dogs. But Bills aren't

347
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Speaker 1: extended arrest. They played Thursday. Saints are already second to

348
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Speaker 1: last in DV away. They're dead last for me and

349
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Speaker 1: just my matrix of roster stuff. They're itching to play

350
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Speaker 1: Town or Shock. They also play really fast, and so

351
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Speaker 1: this is the fastest team twenty one seconds of play

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00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,439
Speaker 1: neutral pace. Next closest is twenty five. Like they are

353
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Speaker 1: way ahead of the field. Fast play is kind of

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Speaker 1: a tanking cheat coat, because if you're the worst team,

355
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Speaker 1: you don't want a bunch of extra plays. That's more

356
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Speaker 1: chances for the Bills to be better. So I don't

357
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Speaker 1: love this underdog spot. What do I do here? Rather

358
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,680
Speaker 1: than ignore it? Here's my play Bills team total. I'm

359
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,399
Speaker 1: playing an alt team total, but a low alt over

360
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Speaker 1: twenty nine and a half, so thirty points or more.

361
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 1: It's minus one seventy at DraftKings. So let me make

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00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 1: the case. And I'm not even to really talk about

363
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Speaker 1: the teams here. We know about the teams. The Bills

364
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:44,080
Speaker 1: scored forty one thirty thirty one, so they hit the

365
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:47,400
Speaker 1: thirty all three games Saints are not getting defensively, Allen

366
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,679
Speaker 1: should rip them apart. The Bills of money aligne is

367
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 1: minus fourteen hundred, so obviously, who's gonna play that? Like

368
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:56,719
Speaker 1: that's not a good line to play. This is your

369
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Speaker 1: free space for survivor if you're in that this week.

370
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Speaker 1: Otherwise you stay. But if you look at it this way,

371
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Speaker 1: since the start of last season, the Bills have won

372
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Speaker 1: sixteen regular season games. They've scored thirty or more in

373
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Speaker 1: fourteen of those sixteen wins, eighty eight percent of their wins.

374
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Speaker 1: So to me, this is a proxy for a Bill's win.

375
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,359
Speaker 1: But rather than a minus fourteen hundred money line, I

376
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,360
Speaker 1: only have to pay minus one seventy, and that makes

377
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 1: me feel a lot better about that sort of juiceaid.

378
00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 1: Now I have to worry about Buffalo defense. I have

379
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,240
Speaker 1: to worry about Spencer Rattler, the open back door, whatever

380
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:34,120
Speaker 1: else is happening. And again, the pace helps here, because

381
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Speaker 1: more pace, more plays for Bills offense. Even to get

382
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 1: some of those long plotting running drives, they can still

383
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 1: get to thirty pretty easily. So here's the math. Minus

384
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Speaker 1: one seventy implies sixty three percent. The money line minus

385
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 1: fourteen hundred would be ninety three percent implied. But we're

386
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,760
Speaker 1: hitting thirty points or better in eighty eight percent of

387
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,680
Speaker 1: the wins. That should mean fair price for this line

388
00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 1: would be minus four forty four, So seventy. Even though

389
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,199
Speaker 1: that's not the typical line i'd play, Sometimes you just

390
00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:05,879
Speaker 1: got to get a win, and I think this is

391
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 1: a good one to maybe include as a parlay leg

392
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Speaker 1: if you're throwing together some fun parlays this weekend. Just

393
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 1: Bills thirty points minus one seventy, get one over the line.

394
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Speaker 2: Yeah. The way I looked at this was simple. Since

395
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Speaker 2: it started last season, Saints have allowed twenty four point

396
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 2: four points per game. When they're a six plus point dog,

397
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 2: it's twenty eight. When they're seven plus point dog gets thirty.

398
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 2: They seem to just let up points in this spot

399
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 2: and it really doesn't matter. I think the other thing

400
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,359
Speaker 2: that comes to mind, and I'm just curious at your

401
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 2: opinion before we just move on to the next one,

402
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 2: is this, would this be the biggest upset ever? Like

403
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 2: Spencer Ratlers never won a game in his career, and

404
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 2: he would come in and win in Buffalo, Like, I'm

405
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 2: just I thought about that the other day, and I'm

406
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 2: sure I would come up with another option. But the

407
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,199
Speaker 2: fact that he's zero to nine and you have the

408
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 2: number I was, you know, it's just.

409
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Speaker 1: It's a bid our three and zero with the MVP

410
00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 1: favorite and depending MVP, it would certainly feel like it.

411
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 1: Like if the Saints won, we would get articles ranking

412
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 1: the biggest upsets ever next week. I have to believe.

413
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:10,879
Speaker 1: I can't think after on my head. I have to

414
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 1: believe there's there's a higher number that's been beat out there.

415
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 2: There's definitely a bigger number. I just think the fact

416
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,360
Speaker 2: he's never won a game in the NFL to do

417
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,399
Speaker 2: this would be you know, it would put it on

418
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,640
Speaker 2: the list. I'll also say this Buffalo has New England

419
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 2: on Sunday Night football next week, not really a look

420
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 2: ahead to spend that game is going to be ten

421
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 2: as well. Like that. This isn't like, oh my god,

422
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 2: we're gonna look ahead in New Orleans to someone else.

423
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 2: This just feels like a game they're gonna roll through.

424
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 2: So I feel like that's a great play.

425
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 1: If anything, a look ahead here. If you think the

426
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 1: Saints really get rolled here, there's a chance this could

427
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 1: be it for Rattler. Like you mentioned, he has not

428
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,679
Speaker 1: won a game yet, sure, and the Saints have to

429
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,399
Speaker 1: give Tyler Shuck a shot at some point. Saints played

430
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 1: Giants next week, so we could get rookie rookie quarterback game.

431
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,719
Speaker 1: But the Giants are almost like coin flip right now.

432
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,119
Speaker 1: It's in New Orleans. I looked at that game as

433
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 1: a possible hot read like we almost hot red the

434
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 1: Giants because I think there's a chance that could be

435
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 1: a Tyler shut debut game potentially if you think this

436
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 1: goes really sideway, So that's one angle you could consider.

437
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 2: The other angle, and I don't know if you even

438
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: looked into this would be would you take unders with

439
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 2: Ratler this week, assuming if things go bad early, he's

440
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 2: just pulled, Like, is he gonna even get enough time

441
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 2: in this game?

442
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 1: Yea. The problem is, I don't know if I'm confident

443
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 1: enough in that, because the flip side of that is

444
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: you just get second half garbage time all day long,

445
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 1: and he's just tucking with nothing to lose. So I

446
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 1: don't know if I need that.

447
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're right, and maybe it's an extra like two

448
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 2: or three percent on something if you like the under,

449
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 2: but it's not the angle itself. All right, let's keep

450
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 2: rolling here. You had to do it, Okay, So Sunday

451
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 2: night football Packers Cowboys, your angle is gonna be Micah Parsons.

452
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 2: But I feel like, is it just simply a sack

453
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 2: or is there more other things? Like did you look

454
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 2: at tackles?

455
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: It literally it's just Micah Parsons, get a sack. Find

456
00:21:57,320 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 1: the best number you can best I see right now

457
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 1: is minus one forty four. I don't even have a

458
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 1: long case for this. There's just there's no way I'm

459
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 1: not betting Micah Parson's revenge game to get a sack

460
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. That's it. That's the case. Dallas's offensive

461
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 1: line is not what it once was. Statistically, this number

462
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 1: is not in our favor, Like, this is not the

463
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 1: bet to make by all the usual numbers i'd give you.

464
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 1: Parsons in his career sixty six games is a sack

465
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: in thirty four of them, so that's just over half.

466
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: That would imply something closer to minus one hundred. We're

467
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 1: paying some juice here. I've seen minus one ninety at

468
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 1: a book. Look around, get the best price you can.

469
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 1: I'm not playing, like, there's no way I'm avoiding Micah

470
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 1: Parsons getting a sack on Sunday night. That is the

471
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 1: thing all of us will be watching all night four

472
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,120
Speaker 1: on Sunday. They're apparently like not giving him a tribute

473
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: coming back now either, that's is ridiculous. Like what I

474
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 1: really want here, So I'm gonna tell you listeners, if

475
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,439
Speaker 1: you find this, give me a shout, tell me what

476
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 1: book it's at. What I really want is the Micah

477
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 1: Parsons escalator sacks, because when he gets sacks, they come

478
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 1: in bunches. Sometimes he has two sacks or more twenty

479
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 1: three percent of his game, so almost a quarter. If

480
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: I see that, anything like plus three hundred or longer.

481
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: That's the one I really want here. Sack stats and

482
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 1: prices aren't even really up much when we record on Thursday.

483
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 1: So no numbers, no dak is sack prone, nothing, just

484
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: Parsons to record a sack. I don't care. I just

485
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 1: needed on my car this weekend.

486
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll give you some advanced stuff that's just fun

487
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 2: because it makes sense. But this is a narrative play.

488
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: I get it. But if you look at highest win rate,

489
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: minimum fifty pass rush snaps, Will Anderson, Miles Garrett, Micah Parsons.

490
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 2: So if you had any doubt that he, you know,

491
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 2: any of those people on that list didn't still have it,

492
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 2: they still have it. I guess the only other thing

493
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 2: would be so Rashan Gary's been the man four and

494
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 2: a half sacks, has a sack in five straight games

495
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 2: this week. He's also got Tyler Geyton on the other side,

496
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 2: he's been a sieve who's been pretty bad. So you've

497
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 2: and you figure all the attentions on Micah. So if

498
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 2: you know, the thing I would be interested in would

499
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,400
Speaker 2: be maybe a Green Bay sack total of some sort

500
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 2: of like I feel like they're gonna get to Dak

501
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 2: right and Micah will be a part of it, and

502
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 2: there's probably gonna be a part of this Dallas defense.

503
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 2: That's like we don't want him to do anything and

504
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 2: Rashan Gary goes out and gets two sacks or something

505
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: like that. But I think the angle on getting to Dak,

506
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 2: especially with the offensive line in the pass rush, is inevitable.

507
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 2: So I like the play Yeah.

508
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 1: I like the Gary kind of the the contrarian playoffs.

509
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 1: So maybe you do like Gary sack or two and

510
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 1: you could even do both of those and figure somebody's

511
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: gonna get home either they give Parsons the attention or

512
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: they don't. But yeah, and do you think they get there? Again?

513
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 1: Sack props are not easy to find, so you're gonna

514
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 1: have to look usually under like defense props on the

515
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 1: listings and kind of look around and see what you

516
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: can find.

517
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 2: And there's gonna be some specials. So like in terms

518
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: of you know, DraftKings are gonna have some stuff out there.

519
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 2: I would take a look because I think some alts

520
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,360
Speaker 2: might be involved here. Lightning, round Time.

521
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: Fun Thunder.

522
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: You're going to go through some props pretty quickly. We'll

523
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 2: give me your opinion when you're done. But We're going to

524
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 2: start again with the Sunday night football game. Cowboys Packers.

525
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,400
Speaker 2: What are you doing on Green Bay's offensive side?

526
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 1: Yeah? So escalators season. I got a bunch of fun

527
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 1: pops and escalators, so we played Packers on the hot read.

528
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 1: We got minus five. Hopefully tailed that minus five and

529
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: a half. If not, I still like that a lot.

530
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: If you get anything under the seven. I don't even

531
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 1: hate the seven personally, I just want to avoid the

532
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: key number. Packers have won ten or eleven against the Cowboys,

533
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: five straight wins with at least thirty points. Cowboys Corners

534
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 1: are banged up, Packers are aggressive down the field. I

535
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 1: looked at the team total over it's twenty seven and

536
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: a half and I was ready to go escalator on

537
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 1: that thing. But Packers haven't even top twenty seven yet

538
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: this season, so I don't know if that's the way

539
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 1: to go. But if the Packers do score that much,

540
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: I think Jordan Love has to have a good game.

541
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 1: So it's going to be a Jordan Love touchdowns escalator

542
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. Dallas allows the number one most fantasy

543
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 1: points to opposing quarterbacks this year and their number one

544
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: last year. May I remind you. Russell Wilson career high

545
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: yards two weeks ago, three touchdowns, Caleb Williams left for

546
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: dead a couple weeks ago, four touchdowns last week. That's

547
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 1: what the Cowboys are allowing right now. Dallas has allowed

548
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 1: multiple passing touchdowns sixty percent of its game since we

549
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 1: started last season. Jordan Love thirty three full games since

550
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,439
Speaker 1: becoming a starter, twenty one of them, he's got multiple

551
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 1: passing touchdowns sixty four percent, almost two thirds of those.

552
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 1: So that's the base of the escalator. Jordan Love just

553
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,959
Speaker 1: over one and a half passing touchdowns. It's at minus

554
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 1: one thirty six. And then give me the three touchdowns

555
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: for Love. He's done that in twenty four percent of

556
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: his starts. That's right about the number we get plus

557
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: three twenty. But we get a factor of the matchup

558
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 1: in here. And then a little sprinkle because we got

559
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: a eleven to one for four touchdowns on Love. Remember

560
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: Caleb just hit that last week. Love hit that twice

561
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:03,400
Speaker 1: last year himself. Matt Lafleur's offenses historically pass the ball

562
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,479
Speaker 1: into the end zone. It's about three fourths of their

563
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 1: scores usually offensively. So we bet Jordan Love passing touchdowns

564
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: before the season. It's looking good right now as long

565
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: as these stays healthy. So we'll take the two three,

566
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: four passing touchdowns escalator all the way up, and then

567
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 1: just a fun if you want to just have a

568
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 1: fun Sunday night same game parlay, here's one for you.

569
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 1: Take the Parson sack, take love for three touchdowns. And now, obviously,

570
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 1: if all that happens, the Packers are rolling, so throw

571
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 1: the Packers spread in their minus six and a half.

572
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 1: That's a plus six point thirty two and that just

573
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,959
Speaker 1: sort of feels like the narrative of what is going

574
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: to happen on Sunday night, Well, we all watch and

575
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: laugh at the Cowboys.

576
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 2: This stat kind of blew my mind. So based on

577
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 2: the fact that the Packers have played in primetime a lot,

578
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 2: and it's happened under Lafloor a lot. He's had twenty

579
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 2: four primetime wins, green Bay's averaging thirty point two points

580
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 2: per game in those games. So I feel like, if like,

581
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: what's going to happen and the narrative kind of goes

582
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 2: straight here, two passing touchdowns is not crazy at all.

583
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 2: I mean, Dallas is a lot of eleven completions of

584
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: twenty plus yards. The next closest is seven on another team.

585
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: And then you look at Jordan Love. I mean, he's

586
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 2: done the job a passing touch on in ten straight

587
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 2: night games, so you're just asking for two here. I

588
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 2: feel like by the time it kicks off Sunday night,

589
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 2: it's going to be much more juice than this. So

590
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,440
Speaker 2: I like to play. All right, let's go to the

591
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 2: next one here, Rams and who the heck of the

592
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 2: Rams playing?

593
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: Why am I playing Rams Colts? Which actually I think

594
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: is one of the more intreaguing games of the week.

595
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: So that's there's a few games on the slate that

596
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, I want to talk about these games.

597
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: I want to bet these games, but there's some kind

598
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 1: of question marks. I think on this one. There's not

599
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: as much question marks on players, injuries, et cetera. Just

600
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: lots to learn, Like the Colts are three, and oh

601
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: who saw that coming? I certainly didn't. I wrote an

602
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: article this week and actually I work of ranking the

603
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 1: three and OZHO teams most likely to make or missed

604
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 1: the playoffs. About two thirds of teams over the last

605
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 1: decade or so have missed the playoffs. Or sorry, one

606
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: third have missed the playoffs despite a three and oh start.

607
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: I think the Colts are the most vulnerable, but I

608
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: don't know, because they haven't lost yet and they've been

609
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 1: crushing teams so far. They've probably been the most impressive

610
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: three and oh team. So I kind of leaned rams here,

611
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: But three and a half we're on the wrong side

612
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: of the key number. I don't love that the Colts

613
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: are top three DVA offense and defense passing right now.

614
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: That makes no sense to me, Like what Daniel Jones,

615
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 1: that's that's what's happening in this past defense. That doesn't

616
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 1: seem real. So I got to a prop here, and

617
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 1: I gotta go Pokinakua receptions escalator because Colts are gonna

618
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: be without Kenny Moore this week. Kenny Moore is a

619
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: stud if you remember from Hard Knocks a few years

620
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: ago in the Colts run, he was a big part

621
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: of the character on there. He made the Pro Bowl

622
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: for them. He's an awesome slot corner. He's out. Guess

623
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: who lives in the slot now, it's Pukinakua. Fifty of

624
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: his snaps this season have come in the slot. That's

625
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: way up about double last year. Why DeVante Adams, that's

626
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,959
Speaker 1: the DeVante factor. Davante gets the outside coverage. Now they

627
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 1: can move Puka into the slot where he just ravages defense.

628
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: Colts linebackers are not great. They've not been great middle

629
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: of the field. And we know Sean McVeigh when he

630
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: finds a play that works, he's just gonna keep hitting

631
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: the X button over and over, just keep running that

632
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 1: play every time again. So on the season, Nicole already

633
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: leads the league in receptions ten, eight and eleven. The

634
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 1: number we get here is over seven and a half

635
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 1: plus one awight, so we get plus money for him

636
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 1: to do a thing that he's done all three games

637
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: this season since Week ten last year. So Puka got

638
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 1: injured first game of the season, came back, kind of

639
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: ramped up a little bit once he got fully into

640
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 1: the lineup week ten forward through this season. His pace

641
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 1: from that stretch is one hundred and forty eight catches

642
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: for eighteen hundred yards eight point seven catches a game.

643
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: That's eleven games at least seven catches all but one

644
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: of the those. So that's the floor, really seven catches.

645
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 1: We need one more to hit our over at seven

646
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: and a half again at plus money. He's done that

647
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 1: in eight of those eleven games, and then we're just

648
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: gonna kind of stare step all the way up the escalator.

649
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: Nine catches hit fifty five percent of those games for Nakua.

650
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 1: That's plus one to eighty three at DraftKings. These are

651
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: all at DraftKings our sponsor. Ten catches hit four times,

652
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: that's thirty six percent. We're getting a plus three to

653
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 1: zero three there. And then we'll skip ahead to twelve

654
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: catches at plus eight twenty and the very top just

655
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: a little touch, fifteen catches. The top one available is

656
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: thirty five to one. That's a lot of catches. Puka

657
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 1: did do that a second game of his career, actually,

658
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 1: So I don't know if we quite get there. When

659
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: DeVante's around going to take some looks as well, but

660
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: I think Stafford is gonna light things up with Puka.

661
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: Nakua and I can kind of play this and then

662
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens with the game. I can learn

663
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: from the Rams and the Colts. We'll see who wins,

664
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: we'll see what else goes there. But it's hard to

665
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: see Nikoua not being hugely involved in whatever the Rams

666
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: deal this week.

667
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: Yeah. If you look at TVOA Colts number one against

668
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 2: the number one wide receiver and twenty six versus number two,

669
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 2: you say to yourself, all right, well, who's the number

670
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 2: one and who's the number two here? But you said

671
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: it yourself. With Pooka in the slot and DeVante outside,

672
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: it's kind of telling you where they're going to line

673
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 2: up now without more, I think they adjust things a

674
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 2: little bit. So maybe the data gets a little bit

675
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 2: wonk here, but to me it makes complete sense that

676
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 2: the attention is going to go on the outside, especially

677
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 2: with the injury. So like that with Puka, all right,

678
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: let's go to Giants and the Chargers. What are you

679
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 2: doing there?

680
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, So this was another one of our hot reads

681
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: from Sunday night. Chargers minus five and a half. Still

682
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 1: like that, A little bit more variance now Jackson Dart

683
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: is playing round our first round quarterbacks making a debut

684
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 1: in the season, so not Week one since twenty ten

685
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 1: seven to fourteen ats five and sixteen straight up not

686
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 1: a great spot. So it's a little more variance. But

687
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: I still like Chargers if you can get them minus

688
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: six six and a half. Prefer under the hot under

689
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: the six if you can, but I don't mind that still,

690
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: So that's not the play. We already gave that one.

691
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: Now I already got the best. The number. The play

692
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: is of Marion Hampton. We talked about him in the

693
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: Chargers game Sunday on the recap, we talked about him

694
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: as part of this read as well, I want rushing

695
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 1: yards over sixty two and a half, and we'll take

696
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: the escalator. That Giants defense so much for a possible

697
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: top ten defense, nothing even close to that. They rank

698
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: thirtieth in DVAWA. They're dead last against the run. They're

699
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 1: so bad against the run that the Chiefs ran on

700
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: them on Sunday night, Like the Chiefs are boosting their

701
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 1: success rate running the football on the Giants. That's how

702
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: ugly it got. They allowed top five most rushing yards

703
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: to running backs last year, just under nineteen hundred yards.

704
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: Median running back outcome for a running back one last

705
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 1: year against the Giants was eighty seven yards, so over

706
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: half the games we hit in eighty seven. This year,

707
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: they're allowing five point two yards per carry to Washington, Dallas,

708
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 1: and Kansas City. Not exactly a murderer's row of opposing

709
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 1: running backs there and they're still just getting shredded. And

710
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: I think to the Vaultvlume is key here, Naja Harris

711
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 1: is out, so we know that Hampton is going to

712
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: be the guy. Last week Canton had nineteen carries for

713
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 1: seventy yards and to score six receptions. He can catch,

714
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: He's gonna be out there a lot. He had a

715
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 1: lot of carries still the first two games, even as

716
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,399
Speaker 1: the backup twenty three carries two games backing it up.

717
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 1: And since the start of last year, Giants have faced

718
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 1: fourteen running or sorry running backs that had at least

719
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: fourteen carries against them have averaged one hundred and twenty

720
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 1: one rushing yards. So if we get the volume, I

721
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: think we're gonna get the yards as well. So over

722
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,479
Speaker 1: sixty two and a half that we hit last week,

723
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 1: even though we were in kind of part time starter,

724
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 1: and then one hundred yards is plus four to seventy five.

725
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:44,760
Speaker 1: Six running backs hit that last year on the Giants.

726
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: And in case we get to that average fourteen plus

727
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: carries one twenty one, let's go with one hundred and

728
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: twenty plus rush yards at ten to one at the

729
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: top of the escalator. And then the main thing here too,

730
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 1: as we mentioned this Sunday Rookie of the Year Amaron

731
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: Hampton nine to one, I think is a good investment

732
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: right now. In my three and zero article this week,

733
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 1: this was my top futures angle. So obviously Agbuka is

734
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 1: out there, he's the favorite, but he's going to start

735
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 1: losing some touches as the other Bucks guys get healthy.

736
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 1: Tyler Warren is one of the favorites. We've never had

737
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: a tight end when really any of these type of

738
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 1: awards before, and we just saw brock Bauers and not

739
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 1: win it last year, which I think could be a

740
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: problem for Warren. There's a lot of steam on Jackson

741
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 1: Dark this week. I don't know, man, I think you're

742
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 1: too late. I think the steam the move was a

743
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: week ago when it was like, well maybe he'll start soon,

744
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 1: and it's thirty to one now he's way short rough

745
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 1: upcoming schedule. I think you want some of these running backs.

746
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: And I think there is a world where if a

747
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 1: Maryon Hampton has a big game against the Giants, we

748
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 1: might wake up Monday morning and he's like right among

749
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 1: the favorites with Agbucon Warren. So I think invest in

750
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: Hampton a couple different ways this weekend.

751
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think out of all the things you said,

752
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 2: I circled one name, it's nause Harris. I think with

753
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 2: the rookie of the year and with the fact that

754
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 2: you're taking escalators and all these different things, it's because

755
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: he's out just quickly. Week one, Hampton led the way

756
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 2: twenty one to one in snaps, and in that he

757
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 2: had forty eight rushing yards thirty nine after contact. Week two,

758
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 2: complete split twelve twelve, Hampton goes eight of twenty four.

759
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 2: Week three you go twenty two to six snaps. In

760
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,720
Speaker 2: terms of Hampton, he goes for seventy yards and fifty

761
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,919
Speaker 2: seven after contact. To me, this is just a snaps play,

762
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 2: knowing that one guy is out of the way and

763
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 2: the market will adjust this. This might be his lowest

764
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 2: mark we will actually see depending on what we get

765
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 2: going forward. So I like the play. All right, Eagles time,

766
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 2: I'm assuming this isn't a tush push bet, So what

767
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 2: are you doing here?

768
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 1: Haven't help me if ever make a tush push bet,

769
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,280
Speaker 1: whatever that would be. I guess probably in anytime touchdown

770
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: for Hurts, I want to fade Jalen hurts, because Jalen

771
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: hurts against Todd Bowles has not gone well. So I

772
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 1: struggled here to figure out what's my play here because

773
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,360
Speaker 1: I really want to fade the Eagles right now, but

774
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 1: I kind of want to fade the Bucks also, but

775
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 1: they're playing each other. We had the fraud off. I

776
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,399
Speaker 1: laugh so hard this week. I know DV away early

777
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: in the season has not doesn't mean a whole lot,

778
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: but these teams are sixteenth and seventeenth. They're dead average,

779
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 1: exactly at the middle of the pack, which is exactly

780
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 1: what it looks like. These do not seem like three

781
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 1: and oh teams. They seem like fine teams. I think

782
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: it's kind of a weird game. It looks kind of

783
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 1: hot and muggy. We don't know yet what's happening with

784
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 1: all the Bucks injuries, so we can't go too hard here.

785
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 1: Tristan Wurfs. I need to know if he's out there, well,

786
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 1: Chris Godwin play, especially now that Mike Evans is not playing.

787
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 1: By the way, Eagles are the lowest DVAA of any

788
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 1: of the three and oh teams. They're the seventeen out

789
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: of that group, and their run defense has not been great.

790
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 1: So I think maybe Tampa finally gets to run a

791
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 1: little bit this week. And the main thing here is,

792
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 1: as always, the Bucks run defense has been elite, so

793
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 1: I think they can take away the non explosive saque

794
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: rushing attack from the season hasn't been as good and

795
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 1: put this on Jalen Hurts, and Jalen Hurts has not

796
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 1: been good against Todd Bowle. Bulls is going to bring

797
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: all that pressure and Hurts his one and four straight

798
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 1: up against Todd Bowles in his career, including zero and

799
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: two in the playoffs. Here's some of those games. His

800
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: debut against Todd Bowles under fifty percent completions, an interception,

801
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 1: Eagles have two hundred and thirteen yards. We also have

802
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: in two playoff games three sacks, two hundred and seventy

803
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 1: six yards, twenty three point loss, fifty three percent completions,

804
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 1: two picks, sixteen point loss. These are ugly. He had

805
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 1: six sacks against Bulls the last time. He even had

806
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: two interceptions and the only win that he got in there.

807
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 1: So just lots of problems and mistakes for Hurts. The

808
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: problem is, how do we bet that. Can I just

809
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: bet Hurts to have a bad game. Can I bet

810
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 1: Hurts to have like a low completion of percentage. So

811
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: here's the angle I came up with. It's kind of

812
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 1: the same game parlay. Build your game script. So because

813
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: of the way Bulls defense plays Hurts, he passes a lot.

814
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 1: They're taking away the run. So the pass attempts are

815
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 1: up last four games thirty seven thirty forty three and

816
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: thirty five pass attempts and four interceptions because guess what,

817
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts is not that good of a passer, so

818
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 1: you pass them much, you're probably gonna make some mistakes.

819
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:11,280
Speaker 1: By the way, not coincidentally, the Bucks won by sixteen

820
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: or more in three of those four games. So here's

821
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 1: the play, same game parlay at DraftKings Jalen Hurts, thirty

822
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 1: passing attempts plus an interception for Hurts and the Bucks

823
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 1: cover the three and a half plus four to sixty five.

824
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: So that's kind of the game script is can we

825
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 1: get the repeat of what we see from these teams playing,

826
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 1: and then a little escalator if you want it. If

827
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 1: it goes very badly for Hurts thirty four passing attempts

828
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 1: or more for Hurts two interceptions, and then the highest

829
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: Bucks alt available there is a minus five and a

830
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,800
Speaker 1: half at DraftKings. That's a thirty one to one parlay,

831
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 1: and I now that seems kind of crazy, but that

832
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,839
Speaker 1: hit one of the last four Eagles Bucks games, and

833
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 1: two of those three legs hit in two other games.

834
00:39:57,640 --> 00:39:59,959
Speaker 1: So I think that the way that this has played

835
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 1: out in this kind of rivalry, we've seen Bowles has

836
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 1: dominated the rivalry against Jalen Hurts. So I just need

837
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 1: to find a way to get a little piece of

838
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 1: action here on what if this kind of thorn in

839
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 1: Hurts side is still there? So that's the way we're

840
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 1: playing it.

841
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that last one, the thirty one to

842
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 2: one at DraftKings. I'd probably say Bucks money line with

843
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: the two in the thirty four would also be something

844
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 2: you would touch just because you know it would piss

845
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 2: me off from the five and a half if it

846
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 2: didn't get that.

847
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh that's true. Yeah, you can get a little

848
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 1: bit cheaper number just to get the win rather than

849
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 1: the five and a half. So we have to see

850
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 1: what that number is. But you can kind of build

851
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 1: how you like it in there and had a leg

852
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 1: or something like that and get the number you like.

853
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 2: I looked at this very simply so last twenty games,

854
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 2: Hurtss has thirty plus pass attempts in just four of

855
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 2: them in losses. It's twelve of his last twenty losses.

856
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: In his road losses, it's eight of his last eleven.

857
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 2: So my opinion is is when they get desperate and

858
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 2: they trail, which is again just part of your wager here,

859
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: Eagles are winning, this bet probably doesn't win. So there's

860
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 2: a correlation between the two, and it chowsen the data.

861
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 2: Last week, Eagles definitely shouldn't have won that game, and

862
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 2: my rams ticket definitely agrees with that. But he had

863
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 2: thirty two pass attempts and that was the game. It was,

864
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 2: so makes sense, all right, last one here, mister fumble.

865
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: We're gonna call him at the moment, which is completely

866
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 2: unfair to everything he's done before. But what the heck

867
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 2: are you doing with Derek Henry?

868
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, Derrick Henry Ravens Chiefs. Obviously that is the big

869
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: game of the week. And again I want to just

870
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: go Ravens here. It's minus two and a half, it's

871
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: under the key. I've been all Ravens this season, I've

872
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: met I'm a little shaken after the Monday night game

873
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 1: that did not go well for me, but there's so

874
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 1: many injuries in Baltimore. Their entire defensive line is hurt.

875
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: Nom Di Madebique is a big loss for them. We

876
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 1: saw how big that was. Just could not stop the

877
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 1: run defense. Cal van Noy, their top pass rusher, is out.

878
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: And I think two names that people are starting to notice,

879
00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 1: Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard the fullback, they're still out too.

880
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: Looks like Likely maybe could play, but those guys really

881
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: add a lot to this offense, so there's enough there.

882
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 1: It's like, Okay, I think this line is about right.

883
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 1: And the crazy thing is with all those Ravens defensive

884
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 1: injuries and what we just saw the lines do, that

885
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:18,240
Speaker 1: should mean the Chiefs offense goes. But my brain is like, eh,

886
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: it's just the Chiefs, Like what can their offense really

887
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,320
Speaker 1: do right now? Which is a crazy thought under pack Mahomes,

888
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 1: but it's still better. Great rivalry. Mahomes against Lamar is

889
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 1: five and a one, but all about one of those

890
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: games came within one score. And we of course remember

891
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 1: last year in the opener of the whole season, Isaiah

892
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: Likely huge game, so big if he can play nine catches,

893
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and eleven yards and a touchdown and then

894
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 1: a ton nail away from a second touchdown, otherwise we

895
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,320
Speaker 1: maybe go to overtime or get a two point attempt. Notably,

896
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 1: the Chiefs Rashi Rice had fifteen catches in the last

897
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 1: two games in this lineup, so that is a big

898
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 1: loss for them, still missing Rashii Rice. So the main

899
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 1: thing I see looking at those past matchups is that

900
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: Baltimore does run on this Chiefs team, and I think

901
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: that that's what they'll be able to do here as well,

902
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 1: that two hundred or more rushing yards in three of

903
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: the games. So similar to one of our previous bets,

904
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 1: I'm looking for a way to proxy bet a Ravens win,

905
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 1: and we did this a couple times last year. When

906
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: the Ravens win with Derrick Henry, usually he has a

907
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: big game and thirteen wins with the Ravens, Derrick Henry

908
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: has one hundred yards or more rushing nine of those games,

909
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 1: and he has a touchdown in nine of those games.

910
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: And for comparison, he didn't have one hundred yards rushing

911
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 1: any loss until that Buffalo Bills game in Week one,

912
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: which frankly should not have been a loss. So Henry

913
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 1: one hundred yards rushing and a touchdown. That's the bet

914
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 1: at DraftKings, Sorry, Henry, hundred yards and a touchdown plus

915
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 1: Ravens money line, because that's all part of the script.

916
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 1: Ravens win, Henry gets one hundred yards and finds the

917
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:57,240
Speaker 1: end zone that is hit in nine of thirteen wins

918
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 1: that Henry has had with the Ravens. Nine of eighteen

919
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 1: games he's play, so half of them. It's plus three

920
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: forty at DraftKings. So I like Henry to get one

921
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 1: hundred yards and a score in a win and then

922
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 1: mark that up to two touchdowns. He's done that in

923
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: five of thirteen wins, and again, no other games with

924
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 1: two touchdowns until that Bill has lost in Week one

925
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 1: that they should have won. That gets us to plus

926
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 1: seven to fifty by adding the second touchdown in and

927
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 1: then I don't do first touchdown markets a lot, but

928
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 1: I had to look three of those five times when

929
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: he scored two touchdowns, one of them was the first touchdown.

930
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 1: So first touchdown, two touchdowns on hundred yards and a

931
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 1: win eighteen to one, all at DraftKings. So it's just

932
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 1: you know, a few tiny little touches at the top

933
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 1: of some Escually, it was fun to put some of

934
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 1: these same game parlays together. So I tried to give

935
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 1: a couple options this week.

936
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 2: I apologize if you're watching on YouTube because I just

937
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 2: looked down for a second because I was looking at

938
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: DraftKings because I wanted to see if they had a

939
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 2: three touchdown market up for Henry. Because this is not

940
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 2: a joke, because I feel like this is the scenario

941
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 2: where off the fumbles, off the you know the talk

942
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 2: we've had, and against Kansas City, a team they would

943
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 2: want nothing more than to just obliterate. It would make

944
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: sense for them to just absolutely go crazy and keep

945
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 2: giving him the ball, so you know, and especially if

946
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,280
Speaker 2: he got two in the first half, Like I would

947
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: want that ticket. So when those pop up, I'm curious

948
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 2: what they see. The way I looked at this game

949
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 2: when you liked Derek Henry was the fact that they

950
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 2: had eighty five rushing yards in their last game. I

951
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 2: looked under Harbaugh, they average about a buck twenty in

952
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:35,359
Speaker 2: rushing yards after putting up less than one hundred since

953
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 2: twenty twenty. That's one hundred and forty, So they have

954
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty rushing yards in games after they

955
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,280
Speaker 2: go under one hundred. This feels like a really really

956
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 2: good bounce back spot for them, especially on the ground,

957
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 2: and this one Kansas City this year two point four

958
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 2: yards after contact on the ground. On defense, they are

959
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 2: allowing the run and this feels like a good spot

960
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: to do it. So I'm with you.

961
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the Ravens. The games that they have played

962
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:04,439
Speaker 1: poorly against the Chiefs, usually the narrative out of that is, man,

963
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 1: why do they abandon the run game? They tried to

964
00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 1: have Lamar pass and it did not go well for them.

965
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 1: Now this year, the run game hasn't been that great

966
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 1: honestly for the Ravens. Obviously, the fumbles are not helping.

967
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: The passing has been better, but they've stayed pretty run heavy.

968
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 1: And I think having Derrick Henry, which they only did

969
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 1: in one of those previous matchups, that should keep them

970
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 1: on the run heaviness here. So I think leaning into

971
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: the Henry. This to me, when I kind of put

972
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 1: together some of these longer odds same game parlays is less. Oh,

973
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: I'm so confident the Ravens are going to crush here.

974
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: It's more Well, I think I like them, but I

975
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 1: don't love them. At a minus one ten bet. So

976
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,319
Speaker 1: if I do like them, what's the script and how

977
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 1: can I make it worth my time in playing a

978
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 1: three to one a seven to one. Find an angle

979
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 1: like that where it's like, okay, if we are right

980
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 1: about this, how can we make it worth our money?

981
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, what's the blueprint to getting to where you want

982
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 2: to go at a bit of a better price? All right,

983
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 2: time for the look ahead? So last week you had

984
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers minus three against the Jags. What

985
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 2: are you doing now? Let's look ahead? Just give it

986
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:06,879
Speaker 2: a shot. How about next week?

987
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 1: I got my mind set, my mindset. Yeah, we're looking

988
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:17,240
Speaker 1: at to Chargers next week, week five. I can't believe

989
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 1: we're in Week five already, Chargers minus two and a

990
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 1: half at DraftKings against the Commanders. So Chargers are three

991
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 1: and oh all three division games. Again. I looked at

992
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: three and oh teams this week in my article. I

993
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:31,479
Speaker 1: came away pretty pleasantly surprised with how strongly I felt

994
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 1: about the Chargers. They are just a good football team

995
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:38,280
Speaker 1: right now, good defense under Minter. Things are going well Washington.

996
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 1: They kind of feel like aggressively mid to me, and

997
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 1: I think it starts with the quarterbacks.

998
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:42,839
Speaker 2: Here.

999
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 1: One of the quarterbacks is playing like an MVP. The

1000
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 1: other one is playing hurt if he's playing at all.

1001
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:51,799
Speaker 1: These were guys when we did our quarterback rankings. These

1002
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 1: were in our five to seven tier of like next

1003
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 1: guy up right. But right now there's no question. Justin

1004
00:47:57,600 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: Herbert is out playing Jane Daniels and with Washington, there's

1005
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 1: a ton of injuries in play. We don't know yet

1006
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 1: will Daniels play this week. We don't know if Terry

1007
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 1: McLaurin will play. The defense has a lot of kind

1008
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: of no name veterans, but missing a bunch of guys

1009
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 1: Will Harris, they're only good safety. He's out, Jonathan Jones

1010
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 1: at corner, Dietrich Wise at defensive end, guard Sam Cosmi

1011
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 1: is still out. Lots of injuries, and I think if

1012
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 1: you look at this weekend Commanders Falcons, I don't have

1013
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 1: an angle on that one. We talked about that Falcons

1014
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 1: heading into the by that sets up well for them.

1015
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: A lot of sharp on Atlanta this week. If the

1016
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:35,320
Speaker 1: Commanders lose or even Kenna win ugly and the Chargers

1017
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 1: beat up on the Giants, which is what they're expected

1018
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 1: to do on the spread, We're not staying below the

1019
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 1: key number here, we're at two and a half. Now

1020
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:45,359
Speaker 1: it's already three at some books. As always, on look ahead,

1021
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 1: you're trying to get ahead of line move, and at

1022
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 1: two and a half, that's the easiest way to get

1023
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 1: ahead of a line move. I think this ends up

1024
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 1: the other side of the key number. So chargers minus

1025
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:55,959
Speaker 1: two and a half against the commanders.

1026
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're already on our way minus two and a

1027
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:00,879
Speaker 2: half getting to one eighteen at some spot. The look

1028
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 2: ahead even before this line posted was charges minus one

1029
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 2: and a half, So you are just kind of going

1030
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:09,760
Speaker 2: in that direction. Jump on that line, all right. That'll

1031
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 2: do it. Here on the Action Howork podcast for NFL

1032
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 2: Week four Best Bets episode presented by Trafickings, do not

1033
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 2: forget to download the free, award winning action ork app

1034
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 2: to see more from all of our Action hour contributors.

1035
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,759
Speaker 2: And if you want instant notifications when action experts track

1036
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 2: their bets, go to action ork dot com slash pro

1037
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:30,839
Speaker 2: use the promo code pod twenty Pod twenty for twenty

1038
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 2: hours off a year of action Pro. If you're on

1039
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 2: Twitter or x we have a great new feature. If

1040
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 2: you see a bet from any of our favorite action

1041
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 2: experts or anyone on gambling Twitter. You can nowt tag

1042
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:44,479
Speaker 2: at Playbook and tell your bot to build you a bet.

1043
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 2: Slip at a book of your choice. It will build

1044
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 2: it out for you with a quick slip link that

1045
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:51,400
Speaker 2: opens up read for your sportsbooks to check out Playbook

1046
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 2: on X and again. If you want to tail some

1047
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 2: of the bets we gave out today, make sure to

1048
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 2: look for the quick slip link in the podcast and

1049
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 2: video description or go to Actionnework dot com slash b

1050
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,879
Speaker 2: e t n ow bet now. We will be back

1051
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:10,800
Speaker 2: Sunday night for our NFL recap show after Packers and Cowboys.

1052
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:12,800
Speaker 2: Can't wait for that one. That'll be live on Action

1053
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 2: Networks YouTube page shortly after Sunday Night football. Thank you

1054
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,040
Speaker 2: for listening, enjoy the slate. Good luck with all your

1055
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 2: bets this weekend. Let's cash some tickets. Thanks. Action Network

1056
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 2: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

1057
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 2: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

1058
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,280
Speaker 2: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler