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Speaker 1: Hope and why We're text hope and why for six

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Speaker 1: nine in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight nine

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Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www Dot one Gambler dot net

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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Welcome the Favorites the podcast from the

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Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Shad Nolman, Chief Content Officer

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Speaker 1: of the Action Network. I am joined as I am

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Speaker 1: every episode by my co host, my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter, Simon Simon. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: get into it. Okay, everyone's asking us to get into it. Boy,

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Speaker 1: did we have a brilliant It's week. Last week? We

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Speaker 1: were right about Foxholt minus three and a half. We

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Speaker 1: were right on Simon says Giants plus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: We were right on the exact decision since he plus

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Speaker 1: two and a half. We were right on the big

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Speaker 1: balls better the week Rams plus eight, Scoot Troulette. You

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Speaker 1: had the forty Niners minus three and a half. I

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Speaker 1: stuck to my guns with the Titans plus five. Um,

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Speaker 1: the only blemish on the whole record. Dude, you know what,

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Speaker 1: I knew it was going down by Sunday morning. I

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Speaker 1: knew it. Yeah, we I did. We'll get into it

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Speaker 1: right away. Uh, you know, great week for us in

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Speaker 1: the contest. We went three and two. Our teams were

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Speaker 1: the Titans, which lost. We had That's which lost. Then

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Speaker 1: we had the Rams, the Niners, and the Raiders all

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Speaker 1: which one. So great week for us before we get

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Speaker 1: into Titans the Raiders three and two week. Tell me,

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Speaker 1: did we make up any ground of the contest? Did

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Speaker 1: we lose ground on the contest? We Yeah, that was

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Speaker 1: an easy week. We should have we should have won

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Speaker 1: five and over four and one. So we dropped the

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Speaker 1: game again. But that's okay. I mean, it's kind of

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Speaker 1: how it goes. I don't know if we're gonna drop

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Speaker 1: it into people right away or we want to wait

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Speaker 1: till Thursday so they can maybe jack together this out.

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Speaker 1: But we're taking a bye week this week. We have

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Speaker 1: to use a bye week. Me and I've been saving

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Speaker 1: it for this week for weeks now. Um, so I

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Speaker 1: think there's what six teams on a bye We did

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Speaker 1: the math, I mean it's one of it's me on

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Speaker 1: the worst weeks, the hated captures because it's the fewest options.

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Speaker 1: So again, this week, nothing changed on the show. We'll

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Speaker 1: still give everything out. But I think Matt Mitchell doesn't

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Speaker 1: wan us to put in the app I'll be the

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Speaker 1: only difference. I'll still put it out on Twitter and

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Speaker 1: everything what our five would have been. But yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be nice. We're gonna take a nice, little, well

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Speaker 1: earned break after we've had this week. Fourth team. We've

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Speaker 1: had two losing weeks at a thirteen weeks so eleven

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Speaker 1: and two winning weeks. It's been a good year. We've

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Speaker 1: we deserve a little break from a weekend. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean in last week was excruciating because we lost the

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Speaker 1: Jets and we lost the Titans in the earlier games,

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Speaker 1: so we needed to go three, you know with the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: the Forts, the Raiders forty nine and who else was it?

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Speaker 1: And of course in the first five minutes Jimmy goes out,

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Speaker 1: so um. Anywayshen too was just brutal because I was like,

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Speaker 1: my whole thing is we've never gone own five and

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Speaker 1: I want that three on my tombstone. Um, And that

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Speaker 1: was in real jeopardy when we started owing two and

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Speaker 1: I was panicking. I was like, holy shit, are we

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Speaker 1: finally going five? But yeah, three straight winners the end

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Speaker 1: of the four o'clock games, save it. Three and two

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Speaker 1: weeks that that was falling. Thank God, Thank freaking God,

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Speaker 1: onto the Titans for a second, because I was on it.

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Speaker 1: You were not, and on convinced me on Sunday, this

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Speaker 1: show we do on Sunday Mornings, we had a graphic

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Speaker 1: me you, raybon Kerner. Everybody was on the Titans except

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Speaker 1: for you, and you stuck to your guns. You said,

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Speaker 1: this is why I do it professionally kind of, but

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Speaker 1: but you got to admit that, like if you were

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Speaker 1: on an island in the universe, not just professionally, like

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Speaker 1: the professionals sharp calls, they all like the Titans, that

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Speaker 1: line moved from six and a half down to four

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Speaker 1: and a half. It wasn't public money moving that line.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I would say that the pros that were

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Speaker 1: at six and six and a half, which I give

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Speaker 1: them the benefit of doubts. So that's the good value.

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Speaker 1: The value it shifted. That was my whole reason for

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Speaker 1: loving the Eagles. But I'll let you get off easy.

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Speaker 1: You just have to do two things. Do you want

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Speaker 1: to do the two things? Get off easy? I don't

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Speaker 1: know all right. First one is our sports books your

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Speaker 1: friends chat our sports books, your friend Chimon. Sports books

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Speaker 1: are not our friends. You already passed that one. Good job.

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Speaker 1: Number two who wrote the book, Fuck you. I wrote

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Speaker 1: the book. I'm telling you right now. I I wrote

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Speaker 1: the book. Sports books are not our friends. It's funny.

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Speaker 1: I was today recording this from are still being constructed

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Speaker 1: about eight done Action Network Studio in the city. Took

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Speaker 1: the train into the city from Connecticut this morning, and

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Speaker 1: I was looking at the games and we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: into it, and thinking about games that I like, and

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Speaker 1: there was a number and I thought to myself, sports

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Speaker 1: books are not our friends. There you go, that's what

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to get into. Some people like, was I

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Speaker 1: trying to get chattowheart time last week? No? But my

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Speaker 1: whole point is when he was coming at me about

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Speaker 1: why I was taking the Bills, who were a road

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Speaker 1: favorite against New England, and while I was taking the

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Speaker 1: Eagles against the Tennessee Titans, was just a simple fact

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Speaker 1: of you can't just always blindly go with what it

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Speaker 1: got you. There. There are weeks to weeks, the rhythm

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Speaker 1: to this whole football season. That's my job. That's kind

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Speaker 1: of ride that rhythm. And it is week the week

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Speaker 1: and I do feel sick to my stomach doing this

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Speaker 1: stuff like that Bills bet that was scary as hell.

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Speaker 1: We saw the reverse line action. I think it opened

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Speaker 1: at five or five and a half. It was three

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Speaker 1: and a half by kickoff. I was like, okay, I

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Speaker 1: might have made a huge mistake on this Bills game.

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Speaker 1: What happened? The Bills blow them out? Eagles, same thing, Eagles.

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Speaker 1: I thought you were getting a good number five and

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Speaker 1: a half. I thought I wasn't going back up to six.

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Speaker 1: Went the other way. It dropped the four or four

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Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, that's a it's a lonely feeling.

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Speaker 1: Chat what you talked about? So what I al ways try.

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Speaker 1: I explained that people is again be nice to chat. Chad,

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Speaker 1: he did something I didn't think was possible, which he

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Speaker 1: actually hired a professional better and let them into this

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Speaker 1: whole media world where looking from the outside, I just

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Speaker 1: never understood it because I just looked at a whole

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Speaker 1: sea of phonies and it was just like, there aren't

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Speaker 1: hundreds of these people out there that are sports professionals

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Speaker 1: and they just happened to work in media as well.

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Speaker 1: So when Chad allowed me into his world and allowed

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Speaker 1: me into this whole media thing, it's for games like

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Speaker 1: that where it's like, yeah, it's a lonely feeling being

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Speaker 1: on the eagles there. But I think people learn from

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Speaker 1: that where it's like what you just said, you kind

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Speaker 1: of want to be that guy, right, you want to

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Speaker 1: be the guy by yourself against everyone else because that

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Speaker 1: tends to be the right side. So not a good feeling. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: it was like scary as hell because I had a

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Speaker 1: decent amount of money in the you was and then

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Speaker 1: we end up taking the times in the contest, and

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Speaker 1: I was like, Jesus, what am I rooting for here?

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Speaker 1: But the best thing happened where they just got blown

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Speaker 1: the hell out, so I didn't have to hear from

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Speaker 1: chat and even being like a close game, no excuse,

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Speaker 1: it was just the wrong side. But then it happens

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Speaker 1: like you make bad bets, you move on, and that's

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Speaker 1: kind of how it goes, where yeah, I'd love to

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Speaker 1: take a victory lap, but I was already onto this

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Speaker 1: week by Sunday night, Like it's just such a short

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Speaker 1: lived feeling of winning and gambling world where yeah, that

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Speaker 1: was fun on Sunday, but I was kind of already

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Speaker 1: on the week fourteen come under listen, by the way,

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Speaker 1: I also love the Lions, and you love Jacksonville. I

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Speaker 1: wanted to put the Broncos in. You didn't want to

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Speaker 1: do it. What do you mean? I gave you Pittsurick,

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Speaker 1: and I gave you the lines, and I stopped you

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Speaker 1: from taking the Bears. Don't don't try to flip this. No, no, no,

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Speaker 1: no no. We were never taking the Bears wanted. It

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Speaker 1: came down. It came down to the Jets and the Lions,

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Speaker 1: and we just did no, no, no. It came down

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Speaker 1: the Jets and Bengals, Bengals and Jets. The Bengals are

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Speaker 1: one and a half. That was the only reason we

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Speaker 1: didn't play. We wanted the two and a half. That's right.

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Speaker 1: But I was really I did like I did like

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars. The only reason I said let's take Detroit

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Speaker 1: was I think it was plus one and a half

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Speaker 1: or plus a half. The line had shifted the minus two,

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Speaker 1: so I was like, we could take lines. We want

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Speaker 1: the value. But yeah, three and two. I obviously wish

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Speaker 1: we'd gone four on one. I mean, the Jets game

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Speaker 1: we barely even talked about, but it was just like excruciating. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're typical. The sports book just knows. We're like, all

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Speaker 1: that money was coming on the Jets all week at

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Speaker 1: plus three and never moved. I thought they were misreading

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Speaker 1: the situation. I thought they got the line wrong. Somehow

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Speaker 1: they knew this guy was gonna drop the ball in

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Speaker 1: the back of the ends and the end of that game.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, the books, the books got lucky on that.

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Speaker 1: I want, but that's kind of how it goes. All right, Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll get into some of the Jets stuff. We'll get

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Speaker 1: into the Lions. Those are the Jets Vikings and then

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Speaker 1: the Lions Jags. The Lions are playing the Vikings this week.

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Speaker 1: It's a game that I'm really interested in. You. I

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Speaker 1: haven't talked about it, but all right, Thursday night football,

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Speaker 1: Raiders visiting the Rams. All of a sudden, the Raiders

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Speaker 1: six point favorites on the road. At the Rams, we

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Speaker 1: were ahead of the curve on the Rams. We loved him.

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Speaker 1: Last week at plus two, that line moved all the

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Speaker 1: way to Raiders minus two. We were on the Rams

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Speaker 1: that game opened to date, it closed about six and

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Speaker 1: a half. So we like both of these teams last week.

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Speaker 1: Is that influencing are thinking with the line this week?

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Speaker 1: Raiders nearly touchdown favorites on the road. Yeah, the Thursdays

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Speaker 1: are just tough for me. Right, even people can notice

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Speaker 1: it last week, right, usually go with the favorite, even

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Speaker 1: if they're on the road. And then since it late

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Speaker 1: in this season, on short weeks, it's a big deal

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Speaker 1: to just be the better team. It's because you don't

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Speaker 1: really have time to scheme. Right, most of these guys there,

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Speaker 1: they just got a car accident. That's how they those

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Speaker 1: football players descryed playing football. They got a car accident

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, the body rest Monday. Maybe they come in

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday for treatment and some film watch, do a

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Speaker 1: walk through on Wednesday, and then they have the game Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Like that's literally these guys weeks this week, there's not

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Speaker 1: much prep time. So, I mean, Chad knows we almost

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Speaker 1: always take the Rams here. I just have no play

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Speaker 1: because I kind of want to take the Raiders. The

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Speaker 1: fact that's under seven, I think you're getting a good

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Speaker 1: number of the Raiders. But this Rams team we saw

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Speaker 1: last week in Seattle, they have players that can make place.

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Speaker 1: Like got guys who have filled in and can't get

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Speaker 1: open it can make play. So I don't know what

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Speaker 1: to do with this point. I it's a it's a

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Speaker 1: game that I usually would go with the Rams, but

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Speaker 1: there's just there's just so much here to unpack between

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Speaker 1: these two teams on a short week, I'll probably have

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Speaker 1: a pick for it by Thursday. Like again, we'll do

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Speaker 1: two shows on Thursday, and I'll have more better in

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Speaker 1: front this game by then. But as we sit here

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Speaker 1: right now, um, I leaned towards the Raiders. We'll do

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Speaker 1: a podcast on Thursday, and of course we'll do our

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Speaker 1: Action Island show also presented. Here's one game that I'm

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Speaker 1: one team that I'm really glad we didn't get suckered

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Speaker 1: into going into the weekend. I love the Rams, I

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Speaker 1: love the Broncos. We made the Rams big balls better

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Speaker 1: the week I was totally comfortable with it being the

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Speaker 1: Broncos to bet them both avoided the Texans, avoided the

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Speaker 1: Texans curse just decided, as you said, you gotta play

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Speaker 1: the flow. You can't just play the number and Texts

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Speaker 1: are just a terrible team. And so there was like

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Speaker 1: everything they can go wrong for the Texans went wrong.

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Speaker 1: Every way that the Browns can score other than an offense.

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Speaker 1: They scored, and the Texans still couldn't cover that game.

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Speaker 1: They are now seventeen point underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: You know, we joke lash Show. I said, eventually the

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Speaker 1: the books gonna get Houston right, and we'll figure out

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Speaker 1: this line. I'm just tal gonna be one paying for

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Speaker 1: it to figure out one that that is because there's

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Speaker 1: just how other games are rather invested in. Houston is

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Speaker 1: a team to me that that first half was I

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Speaker 1: felt like it was gonna be easy money. We all

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Speaker 1: knew Watson was gonna be rusty. Um, I believe it

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Speaker 1: was five nothing and something stop bad. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if they threw a pick or whatever it was, but

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Speaker 1: it was it was it was maybe it was a

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Speaker 1: kick return, whatever it was. Cleveland scored. Then they scored again,

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Speaker 1: and it was just and one of the first time

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Speaker 1: I can remember team had twenty twenty one points and

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Speaker 1: their offense had zero of those points like their defensive

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Speaker 1: special teams that scored all of it. So yeah, Houston

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Speaker 1: is an absolute train wreck. Um, Dallas, this is always

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Speaker 1: the games they let down and let teams covering. Uh

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Speaker 1: after a huge blowout. But they're so good, Like they're

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Speaker 1: so good defensively, they're so good offensively how Boys are

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Speaker 1: gonna be one of these teams. They're gonna get hyped,

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Speaker 1: just like the forty nine is where these last couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks, and I'm gonna stay with I said with again,

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Speaker 1: Jimmy played well. I still don't think he's playing as

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Speaker 1: well as people thought he was Jimmy Garoppoloa. That's why

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it's that big of a deal

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Speaker 1: that he's out now. And the same goes for Dak.

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Speaker 1: Since Dad has been back, if you look at his numbers,

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Speaker 1: they're all not that impressive. He's been just very bless

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Speaker 1: where he has Pollard, a great offensive line and a

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Speaker 1: great defense where they're kind of hiding all these deficiencies

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Speaker 1: that Dec has had since he's been playing this year,

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Speaker 1: He's just not the same quarterback he's been. So I'm

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Speaker 1: excited for the Cowboys. I think they might end up

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Speaker 1: being a top sea. They can even steal this division

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Speaker 1: from the Eagles the way the season plays out with

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Speaker 1: different matchups in different games. But come come February or January,

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Speaker 1: I'm just not gonna be back in this Cowboys team.

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Speaker 1: I think that has major issues that he has not

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Speaker 1: figured out yet. So just going off this matchup right now.

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Speaker 1: Chad said it, like, aren't we supposed to take a

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Speaker 1: seventeen and a half? This is an insane number. Um

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Speaker 1: that's will probably end up. Will this be one of

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Speaker 1: my five biggest bets this week? No what, I'm just

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Speaker 1: not gonna be paying for that experience for the Houston team.

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Speaker 1: Not a chance. And it's the exact reasons why we

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Speaker 1: walked away from him. Look, we saw it on Monday

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Speaker 1: night or on Sunday night when the Cowboys played the Colts.

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Speaker 1: This team can get very explosive, very fast. You can

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Speaker 1: score in any way. The Texans really have no offensive

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Speaker 1: firepower to speak of. Kyle Allen is a sitting doct

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Speaker 1: back there. Yeah, it's varsity versus j V. Like there's honestly,

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Speaker 1: you know how sometimes you worry about a back door

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Speaker 1: cover and number this big, I worry about a front

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Speaker 1: door cover, like like they're going to find a way

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Speaker 1: to extend the lead when it's thirteen seventeen later. We

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Speaker 1: saw when they covered against the Eagles team you just

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Speaker 1: need a lot of things that bounce your away and

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Speaker 1: for Houston to cover that game, they had a touchdown

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Speaker 1: the opening drive and they had a touchdown right before

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Speaker 1: the end a half, and they scored three points the

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Speaker 1: rest of the game. So that's one of those where

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Speaker 1: it's just like, that's what I just said, How how

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Speaker 1: do you see Houston getting points? I just can't do it.

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Speaker 1: That's what's hard for me to back this number. You

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Speaker 1: watch that game together, the Cleveland Browns Deshaun Watson the

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Speaker 1: second game back or visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Do you

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Speaker 1: know how I feel about the Bengals three weeks in

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Speaker 1: a row, on the Bengals, on the Bangles, on the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: made of my exact decision last week. I just think

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is so special, really manages the game, and

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Speaker 1: I don't mean that in a pejorative way. He just

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Speaker 1: understands the flow in the rhythm and is unafraid in

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Speaker 1: the moments where you cannot show fear. What's interesting about

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Speaker 1: this game. The bets are on the Bengals at minor six.

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Speaker 1: The money is relatively split. So what that's telling me

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Speaker 1: is that wise guys are coming in on the Browns

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Speaker 1: at plus six, and I kind of buy it. People

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Speaker 1: are gonna notice the feme Me and Chad we had

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Speaker 1: a couple of favorites we love last week. This week

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Speaker 1: it is just I love a lot of dogs and

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Speaker 1: this is one of them. People remember one of my

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Speaker 1: bigger bets. I think I might even a Simon says

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Speaker 1: play was that Brown's at home on Halloween against the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: I think it was three and a half, same exact scenario.

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Speaker 1: The Browns team looked awful the week before. The Bangles

336
00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:48,080
Speaker 1: are getting all the hype in the world, right, they

337
00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:52,080
Speaker 1: just had a big win. It's another game of I'm

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Speaker 1: not back in Watson. This is more of a back

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Speaker 1: of Their defense for some reason, matches up really well

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Speaker 1: against what Joe Burrow and this offense wants to do.

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Speaker 1: And in Joe's career, I'd have to look, but I

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Speaker 1: think he is owen four straight up any being the Browns, right,

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Speaker 1: I think that is right, though I think he's never

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Speaker 1: beating the Browns in Israeli career. He might have missed

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Speaker 1: the game because that a c out there, but in

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Speaker 1: the games he's played, he's just struggled against this defense

347
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Speaker 1: for some reason, the way they scheme it with their

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00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,200
Speaker 1: cornerbacks and their safeties, and Male's Garrett always plays well

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Speaker 1: against the Cincinnati front line. It is a really bizarre

350
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Speaker 1: matchup in that sense, but just off, not going off

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Speaker 1: any of that. This number should before like this number

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00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,920
Speaker 1: is ballooned up on what we just talked about. Joe.

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Speaker 1: Joe is he's gonna be that guy this week talked

354
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Speaker 1: about m VP like I'm not sure what his odds

355
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Speaker 1: were at the start of the week and now what

356
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,159
Speaker 1: they are. But you have a game like that when

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Speaker 1: he had against the Chiefs, which was not perfect but

358
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Speaker 1: close to it, like anytime they needed to throw down

359
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,879
Speaker 1: a big play, Joe kept doing it like you had

360
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:51,199
Speaker 1: to talk about He's been doing it for weeks. Now.

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00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 1: They're on a really hot run, uh ten and one

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Speaker 1: their last eleven eighths. It's incredible what this team has done.

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Speaker 1: But this number is inflated, and it's it's an inflating

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Speaker 1: the number in a divisional game, I always back the

365
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Speaker 1: dog in those sides, so I wanted to be on

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. I was hoping that value would come down

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00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:11,480
Speaker 1: because Watson was back, and I was like, maybe this

368
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,200
Speaker 1: will open at three and a half. I could grab that.

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Speaker 1: They did it. It opened up at like six six

370
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Speaker 1: and a half staying at six. Maybe it's gonna drop

371
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 1: a little bit, but I grabbed that six now just

372
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 1: to be safe. I agree. I love it, love it,

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00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 1: wants some more of it. Interesting that we have three

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Speaker 1: in state games Texans, Cowboys, Brown's, Bengals, Jets, Bills, just

375
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:37,920
Speaker 1: a cork of the Yeah, I didn't think of that

376
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Speaker 1: quirk of the schedule. Nothing significant, just interesting. It's like

377
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 1: that's the kind of thing Scott Hanson would drop in

378
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 1: red zone. Jets nine and a half point dogs at

379
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,160
Speaker 1: the Bills? Did the Bills get right against the Patriots?

380
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 1: To the Jets blowing an opportunity to move up in

381
00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 1: the standings against the Vikings? Is Mike White for real? Uh?

382
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 1: Very interesting team right now? My first instinct, not and

383
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,960
Speaker 1: a half feels like a lot Jets defense a lot.

384
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Speaker 1: That's what I hate it. It feels like another game

385
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:16,320
Speaker 1: like I'm hoping I get calls a by this one.

386
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 1: Friends there not a friend. So that's my issue, whether

387
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 1: where it's like me chatter all over this Jets team

388
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 1: when they upset and beat this Bills team and now

389
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,159
Speaker 1: they're sucking us back and again it's like nine points,

390
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 1: nine points that's insane. So yeah, I haven't bet this one.

391
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with it yet. Um,

392
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 1: there will no doubt be a call. I'm looking around

393
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 1: at people seeing people are betting because it feels like

394
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 1: another game of everyone's gonna be all over the Jets

395
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,360
Speaker 1: because of what I just said, Like, that's a lot

396
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Speaker 1: of points for a good Jets defense and offense that

397
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 1: can clearly move the ball. They punted that they punted

398
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: one time again to have Vikings teams. So um one

399
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 1: of the fifth year lines of the week. This one

400
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 1: early leaning though, is obviously towards the Jets. But I

401
00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 1: haven't bet this yet. Yeah, it's uh. I want to

402
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: wait and see what the markets do on this. I

403
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 1: also think it'll be interesting to see if we get

404
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,879
Speaker 1: any sharp calls about this one. Yeah. I don't know

405
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 1: if they're going to touch it though that's the only one,

406
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 1: because that's I feel like they might feel like me,

407
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 1: where it's like, what in the world, it's either the

408
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 1: Jets or nothing. I feel like most people are gonna

409
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 1: feel the same. What all right, this one? I know

410
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about Eagles on the road seven

411
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 1: point favorites against the New York Football Giants. Do you

412
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 1: want to say it once again? Simon says the Giants

413
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 1: sime I knew it, you know you and I didn't

414
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,199
Speaker 1: discuss it. But that's why I said, do you want

415
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,879
Speaker 1: to say it? Because I had a feeling we were

416
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 1: going to Giants plus seven and the same reason we

417
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: took the Giants last week. I just feel like the

418
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,160
Speaker 1: number is gonna move and the numbers inflated, where last

419
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Speaker 1: week I had the game of a pick. I really

420
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,399
Speaker 1: think it was gonna end in a tie. No, but

421
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Speaker 1: it is. It is a great feeling the models hitting

422
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Speaker 1: that well. That game. Literally, I was just on the under.

423
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 1: I had the game of forty and I had that

424
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: game of a pick. The game literally in a pick

425
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Speaker 1: and under forty. That's like, if you're a nerd you

426
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Speaker 1: love building models, that's like the best feeling in the world.

427
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:08,400
Speaker 1: So that under, by the way, I had a half yeah,

428
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 1: I mean if yeah. The fact we won that game

429
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,680
Speaker 1: so stupid, so like not to score basically the entire

430
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: second half. It was at halftime I think, and the

431
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 1: Giants scored one touchdown early in the third quarter. Nobody

432
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 1: scored again was excruciating. So for this matchup, it's a

433
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 1: divisional matchup between two teams that we know what everyone

434
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,239
Speaker 1: thinks to the Eagles. Now, people got burned bad by them.

435
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 1: Usually when that happens, people come in really heavy on

436
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 1: that side. And the fact that books now are hanging

437
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 1: six and a half, that's why I want people to

438
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 1: grab the seven now. I just can see this coming down.

439
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 1: The pros are gonna bet this number down to six,

440
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 1: I believe, and the public they love it. This is

441
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: gonna be one of the biggest tease games of the week.

442
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: Everyone will have this in a teaser, just a classic

443
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 1: public side. And me and chadn't even talked about it,

444
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 1: but last week on Sunday. I think the favorites when

445
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 1: one straight up. Usually the final week there are some

446
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 1: big upsets. So this is a game I have circled

447
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 1: Rare Eagles. We saw them struggle already this year with

448
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 1: divisional teams. We saw them lose at home against Washington,

449
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 1: the game they should have probably won. The same thing here,

450
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 1: it's it's a big number in a divisional game, should

451
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 1: be four and a half. Four. It's inflated up so

452
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 1: much now just because I feel like the Shines kind

453
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: of rubbed off on the Shints team on the flip side,

454
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 1: hurts he's almost tied. AWLB Mahomes bram v pods like

455
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 1: the Eagles are just being hyped up to no end

456
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 1: right now. So um, that was a nice bilow last

457
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 1: week on the Eagles. This week, I'll still high on them.

458
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 1: I'll go with the Giants again. Yeah, you know this

459
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: the Giants. It's a divisional game, Giants at home, playoff implications,

460
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: all the things you said, plus the inflation on the Eagles. Yes,

461
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 1: back the Giants. The other thing I'll say is uh

462
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 1: pricing the juice on this at plus seven is already

463
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: below minus one ten, which basically tells you get it

464
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 1: now because it's moving fast and it is a prose

465
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: Joe's game. The bets on the Eagles, the money on

466
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 1: the Giants. Looking to get more out of this NBA season, well,

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501
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 1: pros Joe's game right now Jaguars plus four against the Titans,

502
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 1: seventy the bets on the Titans seventy of the money

503
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 1: on the Jags. Yeah, I would say they're they're thinking

504
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: is correct and that this line is inflated, that tell

505
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: yous are not that much better of a team on

506
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 1: paper than that the Jaguars are. Well, we've seen it

507
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: earlier with this Jaguars team. They don't know how to

508
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 1: finish games and they're just bad in the second half.

509
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 1: And they've had many games like that where they've been

510
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 1: in it and they've let things slide. So I would

511
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 1: love to take the Jaguars here, but the value is

512
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: definitely on the Titans here in the sentence that this

513
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: is a good bounce back spot for them, that gets

514
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: a team that has been horrible on the road historically.

515
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 1: When we saw that last week with the they just

516
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 1: didn't not They look flat like they came out out

517
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: golf was tearing them up all up and down the field.

518
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 1: I'm on St. Brown was open anytime you wanted to

519
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 1: get open. And I know obviously Tennessee has injuries to

520
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: the wide receiver position that could be a big issue

521
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: to them, but man, it's hard to pass at that

522
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 1: number at four um, maybe I'll just stay away from it,

523
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 1: but it feels like Tennessee is the right side here.

524
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: To me, it's a pass right now. There's two. The

525
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: thing that makes it interesting to me is great coaching matchup.

526
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 1: You're not there's no advantage that you're getting in the

527
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: coaching matchup comparable in terms of the need. Right. I

528
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: think they played each other twice the rest of the year.

529
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 1: Still an opportunity for the Jags to win the division

530
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: if they can sweep the Titans and one or two

531
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 1: good things that's true, So there is some incentive and

532
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: then you've got just the divisional component of it, like

533
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 1: a divisional favorite, a divisional game of more than three,

534
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 1: you kind of lean Jacks. But I don't trust this team,

535
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: don't trust him at all. Yeah, I feel like the

536
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 1: books aren't giving to enough of value on the Jack

537
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: team that I have to look and I honestly think

538
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 1: they're two and eight teams something crazy like that. A

539
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 1: t S on the road. I know Evan put out

540
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 1: something last week about it. They've just struggled mightily, and

541
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: that's why I was okay with let's put the lines

542
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 1: and then look what happened, like one by thirty. So yeah,

543
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 1: I just I'm not I'm done betting the Jaguars on

544
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 1: the road. They clearly have issues with this team traveling

545
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 1: Vikings visiting the Lions. The Lions are two and a

546
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 1: half point favorites. This line has moved up, opened it

547
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 1: one and a half moved up today like in the

548
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 1: last few hours. I don't know. It's because I picked

549
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 1: the Lions on our show Green Dot Daily that airs

550
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 1: at newn Eastern on at Action Network Network HQ and

551
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: in the app I'm Gonna Eat this exact decision on

552
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 1: the Lions. I still like the Lions at less than

553
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 1: a field goal of the money on the lines right now,

554
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: but on the Vikings, so it's a pro joe game.

555
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: Pros on the Lions, they're just a better team. Like

556
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 1: I know, it sounds crazy to say it. The Vikings

557
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:09,199
Speaker 1: again a one score game, gave up nearly five yards

558
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 1: to the Jets. They jett punted at one time. They

559
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: scored one touchdown like the Lions since aman Ra st

560
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: Brown came back, since they had their by The Lions

561
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 1: are comparable to the Bengals in terms of their rankings

562
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: for advanced metrics on offense and defense and their lights

563
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: out at home. So I love, love, love the Lions

564
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 1: in the spot by the way, Simon, where two Lions

565
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: wins away from cashing our over ticket for the season,

566
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: which was our probably our biggest preseason wind total future

567
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: do you agree or disagree? Lions exact decision exact decision

568
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 1: by Chad Woman. Yeah, of course, this is one of

569
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: these games. I better early, but the Lions on the

570
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 1: open as a dog. Um it flipped right away. I

571
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: think Sunday Night to them being favorites. A classic game

572
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 1: of public perception versus professional betters, how they view certain

573
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 1: teams at certain lines. Um, but if this hits three

574
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: three and a half for the Vikings, the value is

575
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: gonna flip. And that's the toughest part about doing this,

576
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 1: where it's like I want to take the lines two

577
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 1: and a half, I'd still take them like Chad's doing

578
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 1: right now. I think that's a good number. But in

579
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 1: divisional game like this, if it gets the three, the

580
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: Lions don't blow teams out usually like that was insane

581
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 1: what they did last week. They usually play close games.

582
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: That's what the Lakings do as well. They've had two

583
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: losses this year, both those losses that got blown the

584
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: hell out. Every other game has been a one score

585
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: game they've won. So I'm with you, they're lucky as hell,

586
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: but I've been paying for it. Like my two biggest

587
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 1: bets I won this year, one was the Eagles against them,

588
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 1: the other one was Dallas against them. But I'm giving

589
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 1: a lot of it back last week New England, yeah,

590
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 1: I can say they were unlucky and there's a lot

591
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: of special teams bys. The Vikings won that game, the

592
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,239
Speaker 1: Jets game. What was the crazy stat the Jets had

593
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: five five trips to the red zone. There are five

594
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 1: for five on goals, laing core single touchdown. The Vikings

595
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: went three for three on touchdowns and the other on

596
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: the other end. So yeah, they keep winning by weird

597
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 1: ways and that's just kind of how teams are. So

598
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: we'll be able to get value next year fading them.

599
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: But there could be that wonkie team chat. So as

600
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: long as you know that, as we're back the lines,

601
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: it's it sucks. It's like the worst feeling right now

602
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 1: as you bet against this Vikings team, because that felt

603
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: like the right side that the Jets. It felt like

604
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 1: everything one exactly as we thought. I thought there'd be

605
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 1: a lot of points because they didn't our sound good

606
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 1: Mike White was, you have a chance to win it

607
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 1: there at the end and it just didn't happen. So

608
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: not gonna overreact and not cashing deaths two weeks in

609
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: a row. I'll stay with Chad, stay the course, keep

610
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: fading this Vikings team who was just getting very very

611
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 1: lucky these last couple of weeks. So under three, you

612
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: should grab the lines of line, grab it, grab it.

613
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 1: It won't last. Folks. Ravens on the road at the Steelers,

614
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 1: the resurgence Steelers. We've said this on the podcast. Kenny

615
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 1: pick it's a gamer um, and they are figuring out

616
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: ever since the by He's just been a better team

617
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: and they're getting George Pickens more involved in the offense. Uh.

618
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: You saw Nagi Harris with some angry runs. But really

619
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: it's about Kenny Pickett and his ability as a playmaker.

620
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: He's been fantastic, plus having t J Wack back again.

621
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 1: He was injured last week and went out at the

622
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: end of the game. UM Steelers two and a half

623
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: point favorites on the road against the Ravens. I don't

624
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion here yet. Yeah, I love the

625
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 1: Ravens at three. If it touches three again, I'll grab

626
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: it again. Through a little on the three. They moved

627
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: the right to two and a half. Both these teams

628
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: without Lamar are the same team. They're gonna both rely

629
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 1: heavily on their defense. So a game if you're not

630
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 1: a couple of taking aside, just bet the under. I don't.

631
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: I just think both these teams are gonna struggle to

632
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: score points and what will be a defensive battle. Um.

633
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 1: The no Lamar thing is huge though, for this Ravens team.

634
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: But the fact that this game open it to pick,

635
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: it's moved to two and a half three, it seems

636
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: like a little bit of an overreaction on just a

637
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: simple fact that Lamar hasn't been playing that well anyway

638
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: down the stretch here. I saw enough in that offense

639
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: last week with the kind of got a rhythm they moved.

640
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: They're able to move a ball against a really good

641
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 1: Denver defense, and never defense is better than Pittsburgh's defense.

642
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 1: So um, in a divisional matchup like this, if Tomlin

643
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: was the dog, I would love him here with his

644
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: backup quarterback. It's no different with Horrible Like we've seen

645
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: these kind of matchups between these teams for the last

646
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: twenty years. Um, you kind of throw the quarterbacks out

647
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 1: and it's kind of a battle between two defenses. And

648
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: that's what feels like this game is gonna be. It's

649
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: kind of gonna be the old old school early two

650
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 1: thousand's battle. That's Pittsburgh Ravens defenses. So like the under

651
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 1: the most here, but the gets up three, I'll be

652
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: back on the Ravens a two and a half and

653
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: no real play for me right now, that's total on

654
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 1: this game at fan Duel is thirty six and a

655
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: half down a lot. That is the I'm looking at

656
00:32:55,880 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: the fan due app right now. That is the lowest

657
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: total on the board. The next lowest is Bucks nine

658
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 1: ers at thirty seven and a half. Nothing else in

659
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 1: the thirties that I've seen. Yeah, that's a low number.

660
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 1: You know what I feel like? Uh, wasn't someone at

661
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: thirty six or thirty five and a half this? It

662
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: might have been the Bengal the However, the Broncos played

663
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago, right, yeah, Broncos Carolina which yeah,

664
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 1: which went way under um. All right, I will say

665
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: this right now as I said it last week for

666
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: the Rams, very early, big balls better the week contender

667
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: Broncos plus nine and a half at home against the Chiefs. Wait.

668
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 1: Last week I was slacking with Matt Mitchell and signed

669
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 1: and every morning I woke up wanting about the Broncos. Waited, waited, waited.

670
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: It got to my to plus ten for about five minutes.

671
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: I better to play ten and felt great about it.

672
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for this to get the plus ten because

673
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: of the money is on the Chiefs the best, but

674
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 1: the Broncos at the side here. Signmon. Yeah, I mean,

675
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: if you want to say every big balls, I was

676
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: gonna make this our foxhold. But we can do big

677
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 1: balls for this one. Dude. I'll listen. I want the

678
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 1: Broncos on our slate. That's all I'm saying. It's gonna

679
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: be talk about. Yeah, Foxil Broncos. We're in the Foxil

680
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,359
Speaker 1: we talked about last week. We're mean chat. We felt

681
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 1: gross doing it, but it was just the media was

682
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: just so bashing this Denver team. Everyone was bashed them.

683
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 1: No one was betting them. Everyone's talking bad about them.

684
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 1: The books kept bumping the line up because they're in

685
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 1: begging people to put money on Denver, and I didn't.

686
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: I hated myself ward. I literally hated myself. Word she

687
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 1: was a game kicked off. I hated having the money

688
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 1: on Denver. As you know, I saw Russell Wilson get

689
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 1: the ball. I hated myself. We're putting money on Denver.

690
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 1: He's the worst. They are so bad offensively, it is

691
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 1: truly painful to watch. But I kept seeing myself, you're

692
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,320
Speaker 1: not betting them for Russia, you're betting them for the defense.

693
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 1: Did we get lucky as ship that Lamar went out.

694
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 1: Sure we knew that game was gonna be low scoring.

695
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: That's just how those games that game was gonna playoff.

696
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 1: That was gonna be a low ball game. And if Lamar,

697
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 1: even even if Lamart finished that game, I still think

698
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: it would have covered that number, just the way the

699
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 1: game flow was going, how Denver's defense was playing that

700
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: offense in Baltimore. I know, you gotta he went out

701
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 1: early in the first, but it just felt like that

702
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 1: game where Denver was gonna stay and we were going

703
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 1: to cover that number. Same feeling here with the Chiefs team,

704
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 1: where I would love the bout back the Chiefs to

705
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 1: have a huge bounce back. I know historically my home's

706
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 1: absolutely dominated Denver, and like me and Chad, we bet

707
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 1: this spot many of times. Like I remember two years

708
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: ago we had Denver at home, uh with Withdrew Lock

709
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 1: eleven and a half in the contest. Yeah, it was

710
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 1: all working for us. They were moving the ball, I

711
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 1: think it was seven seven, he was driving the field,

712
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 1: Drew Lock ext sack. They took it the other way.

713
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: They scored I think the end of winning by twenty

714
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 1: one the chief So we've been burned many times That's

715
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: why I'm not even worried about this with Russe Wilson.

716
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 1: He can't be any worse than Drew lock was over

717
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 1: all the times we bet this spot. So I'm with

718
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 1: Chatt of sense that this is an inflated line. We're

719
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: getting two points of value just because everyone hates bending Denver.

720
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: No one bet them last week, me and chattered a

721
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: few people that actually won money on them last week.

722
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: You gotta roll it over a divisional game, a home

723
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: dog with a good defense. We have to do it.

724
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 1: It's another case of if you have to just hold

725
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: your nose and bet this, don't even watch it because

726
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: I turn it off because it was so damn painful

727
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,720
Speaker 1: to watch that offense. Just trust the defense, trust the number.

728
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: This is a smart play to back Denver here. But

729
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: do you wait until it gets ten or do you

730
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 1: played at nine and a half? Um, you can like

731
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 1: I already took that and a half, Like with most

732
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: of my bets, I'm like you, I'm waiting for that number.

733
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 1: So yeah, if the ten pop, that's when I'll kind

734
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,320
Speaker 1: of load on it. But I played the nine and

735
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: a half small just in case it does dropped eight

736
00:36:58,200 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 1: and a half because you're getting. You're getting a fair

737
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 1: numb year nine and a half. You are getting a

738
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: fair number. A couple of stats that Evan Abrahams are crack.

739
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 1: Researcher sent me about this game. Home dogs are of

740
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 1: seven or more since two thousand two, are six against

741
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 1: the spread in December or later. It moves up to

742
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: um the teams that had since again since two thousand two.

743
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: Oh no, since two thousand sixteen, teams with a winning

744
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 1: percentage of or more first teams with a loot with

745
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,800
Speaker 1: a winning percentage of or less Chiefs versus Broncos. In

746
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 1: this case, it's about uh no point seventy one and

747
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 1: a hundred against the spread. I gotta do the math.

748
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 1: I'm with that percentages. Evan didn't give me that crib note.

749
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 1: But since same scenario, the teams with the better record

750
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 1: are against the spread. I jumbled at all, but basically

751
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,799
Speaker 1: the same back the Broncos. Now here's the interesting one

752
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 1: about Mahomes. Everyone knows his career November December record five

753
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: straight up, eighteen and two against the spread. What that

754
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 1: tells me is that he is so good. As the

755
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 1: season goes on, bookmakers automatically inflate the line, so you're

756
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 1: getting the value. Then he's the teaser god, just throwing

757
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 1: every teaser. The guy always wins. So that's another interesting

758
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 1: part of this. Why is that nine and a half

759
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: because seven point teaser, that's two and a half. So

760
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: the books know what they're doing and hanging these big numbers.

761
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 1: Another quick short number thing you can look at is

762
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: favorites US seven or more points. This year, they were

763
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 1: seven and oh heading into last weekend. The only loss

764
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: was Houston, So that's one of those things where Houston

765
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: lost that game because they're absolutely terrible. Most of these

766
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 1: teams we've seen this year that have been big dogs,

767
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 1: they've played well. So another reason I love the Giants

768
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: at seven. It's another reason I love this this UH

769
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: Denver team. Two divisional teams at seven or more points

770
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 1: at home. It's just it's me and chat. We cannot

771
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,280
Speaker 1: pass on these kind of opportunities to play these games, simon,

772
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 1: no joke. Sometimes I forget we're live on AM. Yeah,

773
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:24,839
Speaker 1: this number has moved from nine and a half to nine. Yeah,

774
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: so that's that's the fear with it. So I would say,

775
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: don't wait for the ten. Just grabbed the nine and

776
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: a half. Just go get it. That's why I think

777
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 1: a Giants will move to It's just as pros can't

778
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 1: pass on these kind of big numbers and divisional games

779
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: in December. It's just really hard to pass on those numbers.

780
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 1: Oh that's amazing. Look at the influence we have. We're

781
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 1: crazy Panthers on the road four and a half point

782
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: dogs against the Seahawks. I don't know, man, but why

783
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: would anybody be favoring there's so much money coming in

784
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: in the pant there's right now, what's the theory here?

785
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 1: It's three and a half by the way, to take Seattle.

786
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: It's the twelve man verse, Sam Donald, like, I just

787
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 1: blindly take Seattle here. But man, there's there's so many

788
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: question marks for now Seattle's defense, they just don't look good.

789
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 1: These last couple of weeks they've been good. I mean

790
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: l A was moving the ball up and down the

791
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: field on them with backups in every position. So I

792
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 1: get the love for Carolina. I'm interesting with people's opinion

793
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: on on this game. It's another game I haven't met yet.

794
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 1: I wanted to take Seattle right when the game opened, um,

795
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 1: just because I knew the public would fade them after

796
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: such a bad showing against the Rams. But man, I

797
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 1: don't have to do with this one. Um, we can wait. Yeah,

798
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: I would wait on this because I to me, Seattle

799
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 1: feels like the really does feel like the smart side

800
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 1: where Carolina will be a public dog and people are

801
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 1: just not because again Caroline is a great defense. But

802
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: they're they're simply for getting. It's Sam Donald who struggled

803
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 1: his whole career on the road going up against that

804
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,840
Speaker 1: twelve man, which is a big deal. So um, interesting

805
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 1: game to say the least. We've got four games right

806
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: now that we are full on consensus about that. We

807
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: no brainers, no brainers. The Niners are three and a

808
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road, I mean at home

809
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: against the Buccaneers. This is another pro Joel game. Bets

810
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers, money on the Niners. I like the

811
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 1: Niners here, I know, but I don't love the number.

812
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 1: The number worries me. And this number is gonna go. Yeah.

813
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:43,919
Speaker 1: I like it at three and a half, but I'm

814
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 1: with you, I just have no real feel for it

815
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 1: because I feel like, what the hell is his name?

816
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 1: Rock Purity Listen shout out to the big bets on campus.

817
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 1: Podcast with Stucky and Colin Wilson, who for the entirety

818
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,800
Speaker 1: of the Action Networks existence. Brock Purty basically was in

819
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:06,280
Speaker 1: college and we would him. We would celebrate bro October

820
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 1: every fall because of brock Purty and what he did

821
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: at Iowa Stay. I feel super left out because I

822
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 1: had never heard of that guy, Mr Irrelevant. Maybe I

823
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 1: heard of him then, but when he came to that game, Chad,

824
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:23,319
Speaker 1: I was like, holy sh it, like my biggest bed

825
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: of the day, and I was resting on a third stringer.

826
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 1: But luckily what we've been on played out of that

827
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: poor defense game after twa And that's why you kind

828
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 1: of backed his ports team. It's I didn't want to

829
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 1: be the one ship on Jimmy g It was just

830
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 1: more of me saying this guy is such a vessel.

831
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 1: People are giving him too much credit. Where I Phil

832
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: was Trey Lanston there and he had been learning this system.

833
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 1: I think we kind of had the same results we've

834
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 1: seen this year. It's it's kind of built around that

835
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: where they just have so many weapons. I you has

836
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,800
Speaker 1: taken such a major step this year that um debot

837
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: is not that he's not irrelevant. He just isn't what

838
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:58,720
Speaker 1: he was last year because you just kind of filled

839
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: that void of being a true and I'm one receiver,

840
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 1: KIDDI still makes huge plays When you throw McCaffrey in there.

841
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 1: It's just like, man, this guy's four major weapons that

842
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:08,919
Speaker 1: he just needs to get the ball in their hands

843
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 1: and they can make place for him. That's crazy. People

844
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: are Ben Tampa here. Maybe they're betting it because of

845
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 1: what happened last night and they think they canna ride

846
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 1: the momentum. On paper, the difference between these two teams

847
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 1: is light years. So take the under if you don't

848
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 1: have to take a side. If you're like Chad, you

849
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 1: just don't like the number. But I will be back

850
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 1: on the four nineers again this week where Jimmy went out,

851
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,319
Speaker 1: I moved it by half a point. That was all

852
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: Jimmy was worth in my model for this four nine team,

853
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 1: which I could be dead wrong because I have a

854
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,320
Speaker 1: really small Sampa right now in this kid. But I

855
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 1: went back and I watched his Iowa state footage and

856
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, this kid can move the ball.

857
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: You could really sling it like Rock October. Yeah, so

858
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 1: he's obviously he's good. I'm not a huge a fan

859
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: of his mechanics. Like watching him play, I saw why

860
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 1: he dropped so late. This kid as as an unorthodox release.

861
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:01,359
Speaker 1: He's got weird when he throws. He is a set

862
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 1: right which he had plenty of balls he got away

863
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 1: with that really scared me. But he threw in the

864
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 1: tight windows. He made big play. So three and a half. Sure, Chat,

865
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: I'll back too. But I'm like you where it's like

866
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 1: I feel great about it, not really, because I really

867
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 1: know what I'm getting at this quarterback here. Guy, I'm

868
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,320
Speaker 1: not lying. We wanted to take goodbye this week. We

869
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 1: feel better, Like I feel better about the games we're

870
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,879
Speaker 1: talking about than just about any games we've talked about

871
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 1: all year. What the fuck why? I don't know. I

872
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 1: think you're just you're feeling good. You're in New York

873
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 1: City right at chat. You're just feeling good. I don't

874
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 1: think it's the games. Could be I love the vibes

875
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 1: are just really high right now for you. It could

876
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 1: be I'm thinking about Brock Purty Brock. It's like Brock December.

877
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: I love it. I love that. Like I obviously I

878
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 1: don't know much about college. I got other stuff going on.

879
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 1: I love that was like a thing for them. Uh

880
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 1: because he has a great name. Oh my god, are

881
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 1: you kidding me? Stucky and Colin brock Purty and uh

882
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: the uh and Greg Dortch, the guy in the Cardinals.

883
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:07,240
Speaker 1: They are foundational in the history of the college coverage

884
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 1: shere at Action Network, Dolphins on the Road at the Chargers,

885
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 1: you were all over the Niners and the wise guys

886
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: were all over the Niners. That was our big sharp

887
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: calls last week, betting against the Dolphins um basically at

888
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 1: any price, and it was right where the Dolphins exposed.

889
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 1: What did we learn? What does this tell us about

890
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 1: the Chargers as home dogs? And I remind people we

891
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 1: hate the Chargers is favorites. We love the Chargers as underdogs. Yeah,

892
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,240
Speaker 1: And that was another cool thing of like the fans

893
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: enjoyed the fact that they were on the three and

894
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: a half of the four Niners and it closed up

895
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: five by kickoff. So it's nice when you're on the

896
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: early line movement. The pros come in heavy over the weekend,

897
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 1: but I'll have the five and you're sitting there on

898
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 1: three and a half ticket But same game this week

899
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:56,479
Speaker 1: of Chargers are not left for dead. But it feels

900
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,800
Speaker 1: that way by people. People are just totally off of

901
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 1: this team. Now. They every week shoot themselves in the foot.

902
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 1: We've seen the head coach like terrible decisions, make weird decisions. Um,

903
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 1: they don't make the playoffs. He's definitely gonna be fired

904
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 1: in this matchup. Like I was gonna make this why

905
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 1: Simon says, But I think you can wait and you

906
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 1: can get it three and a half. This is a

907
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 1: Sunday night game. The public is gonna be all over

908
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,720
Speaker 1: Miami in this matchup. They're going to bet this number.

909
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 1: They're gonna throw them in a lot of teasers, a

910
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 1: lot of parlays. This is just a classic bounceback spot

911
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: for this Miami team. My issue is is Miami that good?

912
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 1: We already talked about it last week. I didn't think

913
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 1: Miami is that good. They played a kind of a

914
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: soft schedule, had a nice little had a couple of

915
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,839
Speaker 1: games where they're in good spots against teams. Had major

916
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 1: questions about their defense. Their defense has given up a

917
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 1: lot of yards and teams have moved the ball and

918
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 1: then pretty easily. Um. Even I went back a couple

919
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, I watched rewatched that Bears game against

920
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: them where the Bear should have beat Miami at home. Um,

921
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 1: justin Fields just had a really bad pick at the

922
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 1: end of the game. Where that that's why they didn't

923
00:46:58,560 --> 00:46:59,919
Speaker 1: like they got away with one there and where people

924
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: be looking at them different if they had dropped one

925
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 1: or two of these games along the way here. So

926
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 1: looking at the matchup between a Chargers team in the

927
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:09,799
Speaker 1: Miami team that, man, this this is going to come

928
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 1: down to the quarterbacks. I looked them getting the three

929
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: and a half. That's that's a great number to have

930
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 1: with Chargers team that plays games close. We've seen the

931
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 1: games they've lost this year. It's usually a coss a

932
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:21,919
Speaker 1: close loss or where they win by a couple of points.

933
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 1: That's just kinda been the charge has been this year.

934
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 1: Mike Williams has a big deal if he's back this week.

935
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 1: We've seen the dbs and the cornerbacks really struggle with

936
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,279
Speaker 1: this Miami team this year. That that was out of

937
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 1: this world. Will happened last week with the four nine

938
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 1: is the fact they brought in a third stringer, were

939
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 1: be able to move the ball up and down the

940
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 1: field in this Miami defense. When we flipped the other

941
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 1: side where Joey Bos is not gonna be back his

942
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:47,360
Speaker 1: his week. His injury was eight to ten weeks. I

943
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 1: believe it happened the final week of September, so he

944
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 1: should have been back this week practicing. If everything I'd

945
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:58,720
Speaker 1: go off perfectly, it hasn't. I checked the writers this morning.

946
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 1: There is no eight Uh. They gave an update on

947
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:03,800
Speaker 1: Sunday after the game that they didn't think Bos was

948
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 1: gonna practice this week with the team. I haven't seen

949
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 1: that it is. Let's a big deal. But luckily we

950
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 1: still have Khalil mac which is a huge advantage to

951
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 1: have on the defensive line going against up going against

952
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 1: these backups that Miami's having him starting out these left

953
00:48:16,920 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 1: tackline right tackle positions. So I love, I love all

954
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:23,879
Speaker 1: the different things coming together. Where Miami is a really

955
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 1: good team, they're missing key key pieces to that offense.

956
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 1: And if Waddle is injured as well, that's even bigger

957
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 1: for a reason to want to back the Chargers team

958
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:33,800
Speaker 1: like that, that really gets things going. You have Waddle

959
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 1: entire killing the field together. So all the science point

960
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 1: taking the charges, and the biggest last one is going

961
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 1: to be I don't know what the numbers are yet Chad,

962
00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 1: But the public is gonna do. But I guarantee the

963
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: public is going to be backing this Miami team. So

964
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,319
Speaker 1: if you're looking at a book, you have a three.

965
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 1: Just wait, I do think about a three and a

966
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 1: half of the bets are on the Dolphins right now.

967
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: Of the money on the Dolphins right now. Yeah, right,

968
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 1: so another or another road favorite getting all the money

969
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:06,280
Speaker 1: and all the tickets. Never good last game on the board.

970
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,399
Speaker 1: Like I said, it's a short week. Atriot's one point

971
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:13,319
Speaker 1: favorites at the Cardinals. I hate this game. I hate

972
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 1: these things. Uh, there's very little reason to talk about it.

973
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: It's not going to be in our contest. If we

974
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 1: were putting something in for their contest. No opinion, yeah,

975
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 1: no opinion. It's my guts telling me you take Arizona here.

976
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 1: But the thing because Kyler can run the ball we

977
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 1: already talked about. The Patriots have struggled this year now

978
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 1: and three again, tornning quarterbacks, they lost the fields, they

979
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 1: lost Lamar, and they lost to Josh Allen last week.

980
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 1: That clearly is a major problem. Their defense. I don't know,

981
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 1: it's because they have a QB spy. That's why it

982
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 1: doesn't work. Their zone or whatever it is. It's just

983
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 1: a running quarterback seems to give this Pelicheck defense problems.

984
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 1: So I wanted to take the Patriots come with Chad,

985
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,880
Speaker 1: like I hate Arizona and I love Fading Kingsbury no

986
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 1: member in December, and then at home Arizona struggled mightily

987
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 1: at home. But man, the running quarterback thing that throws

988
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 1: me off a loop. So not gonna be one of

989
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 1: my five biggest bets. But in my pickpools and we'll

990
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 1: I'll probably end up betting in the end, it's gonna

991
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 1: be Arizona. Simon. Right now, Voxhall was Broncos plus nine

992
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:24,280
Speaker 1: and a half. Simon says, Giants plus seven exact decision

993
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 1: Lions minus two and a half. Big balls were holding

994
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 1: off on. I got a feeling come Thursday when we reconvene,

995
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 1: Browns could be on our big balls list. Um Chargers, Chargers,

996
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 1: those are the and maybe the Jets, depending on what

997
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 1: kind of news we get. But to me, those are

998
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 1: the three leaders in the clubhouse for big balls. Right now,

999
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 1: Brown's plus six, Giants plus seven, Lions minus two and

1000
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 1: a half. Denver plus nine forty nine minus three and

1001
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 1: a half Chargers US three, But we want you to

1002
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 1: wait on that. Those are the games that we've talked

1003
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 1: about showing our cards on that we liked the most.

1004
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 1: Shorter week shorter week only six six six byes this week. Yep,

1005
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 1: and it's we might cha my d you might be

1006
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 1: like convinced me to put it in because I do

1007
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,799
Speaker 1: really love the games you already talked about. But as

1008
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:23,759
Speaker 1: we sit here, we know we probably should use the

1009
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 1: boy we're gonna talk about games like we always end

1010
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 1: up loving the games we talked about. I know at

1011
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 1: some point we got to use it, all right. This

1012
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 1: has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume podcast Network.

1013
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:41,720
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Moment he is Simon Hunter. Download us from Apple,

1014
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:46,360
Speaker 1: podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, rate review, subscribe.

1015
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 1: We was five stars. Stay whatever you want, feedback as

1016
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 1: a gift, but listen all the way to the end.

1017
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:55,319
Speaker 1: That's how we stay in the rankings until next time.

1018
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 1: I Love you,