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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough, no running again, so smoothe so sweet, splendid

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Speaker 1: sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that? Shop with mind?

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Speaker 4: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 2: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them. Shut up,

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Speaker 2: I'm trying.

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Speaker 4: The love is.

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Speaker 2: Left to Wanda, wide eyed, drilled fibus how old Earth?

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Speaker 2: Pick that happens? Helloi one.

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Speaker 4: Welcome back to Wonderful, the soccer betting podcast from the

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Speaker 4: Action Network, presented to you by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 5: My name is Michael Leba.

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Speaker 4: Been joining me for this Our final Premier League episode

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Speaker 4: of the season is BJ Cuttingham and BJ. We've got

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Speaker 4: a wonderful weekend of soccer ahead of us, specifically in

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Speaker 4: the Premier League. All ten matches will kick off at

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Speaker 4: eleven am Eastern Time on Sunday. The big story, of course,

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Speaker 4: is that Manchester City and Arsenal is separated by two points.

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Speaker 4: City on eighty eight, Arsenal on eighty six. Going into

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Speaker 4: the weekend, the gold differential is in Arsenal's favored by

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Speaker 4: one goal, so it's all hanging in the balance, and

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Speaker 4: obviously we're going to start there, and you're an Arsenal fan,

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Speaker 4: so we're going to start with Arsenal's match against my

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Speaker 4: team Everton. It's a great way to wrap the season

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Speaker 4: podcast Darby. Arsenal is minus five to fifty at home Everton,

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Speaker 4: fourteen to one on the road on the three way line,

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Speaker 4: and the draw is plus five to fifty. These odds

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Speaker 4: before from our friends at bat three sixty five. You

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Speaker 4: know what, I'm just gonna see the floor to you.

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Speaker 4: How you feeling, what's the stress level at what do

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Speaker 4: you think about the if you can separate, yeah, the

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Speaker 4: fan from the the better and then of course you

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Speaker 4: can wrap it all back in.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, Tuesday sucked mainly because, I think, as any

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Speaker 2: Arsenal fan, I went into the match with really not

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Speaker 2: much hope, just kind of like I was kind of

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Speaker 2: dying laughing a lot of the Like when Dragons saved

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Speaker 2: it off the line, I was just like I was

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Speaker 2: texting other Arsenal friends and I was just like this

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Speaker 2: is this is hilarious. And then of course the goal happens,

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Speaker 2: and you just kind of feel like it's all over.

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Speaker 2: And then of course Sun gets the one on one

48
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Speaker 2: and that could have could have done it. But we'll

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Speaker 2: get to City in a second. But yeah, I feel okay,

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Speaker 2: like it just kind of is what it is at

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Speaker 2: this point. There's like a ten percent chance I would

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Speaker 2: say that City draws Order loses to west Ham, which

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Speaker 2: is not great from a mathematical perspective, but in terms

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Speaker 2: of this match for Arsenal, I mean, if this match

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Speaker 2: is being played in November, Michael, I'd be like sprinting

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Speaker 2: to the window to bed Everton, right. And that's just

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Speaker 2: kind of where we're at with all these lines, and

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Speaker 2: we'll get to a lot of more of them later

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Speaker 2: in the show. And I don't fault anybody, and I

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Speaker 2: think there is value in Everton if you want to

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Speaker 2: take it on spread plus two and a half or

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Speaker 2: obviously on the money line as well. But instead, you know,

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Speaker 2: I as an Arsenal fan, I don't really you know,

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Speaker 2: with the title on the line, I don't really feel

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Speaker 2: like that against my team, right, So instead I like

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Speaker 2: under three and a half at minus one ten, which

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Speaker 2: I think is about half goal to zero point seventy

68
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Speaker 2: five goals higher than what it should be if you

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Speaker 2: think about how this match is going to play out

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Speaker 2: given the way the Arsenal has been playing recently. As

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Speaker 2: we've gotten in this run in Arsenal is basically once

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Speaker 2: they've gotten the lead, they've tried to control matches out

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Speaker 2: of possession. They have tried they've sat deeper, they haven't

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Speaker 2: tried to press as high anymore. And what they did,

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Speaker 2: and they did this to Manchester United on Sunday, is

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Speaker 2: like they just knew that United couldn't break them down,

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Speaker 2: so they just didn't give them the opportunity to play

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Speaker 2: in transition. And I think the same thing applies here

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Speaker 2: to Everton if they obviously get the lead going forward

80
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Speaker 2: ahead in this one. But the flip side of it

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Speaker 2: is is we know that Arsenal has struggled breaking down

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Speaker 2: low blocks from open play. Everton's one of the best,

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Speaker 2: you know, mid you know, one of the best defensive

84
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Speaker 2: blocks in the Premier League. Whether you know the results

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Speaker 2: won't tell you that. But they've still conceded the second

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Speaker 2: fewest big scoring chances. They're still top seven to non

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Speaker 2: penalty expectacles allowed, Like they're still a very very difficult

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Speaker 2: defensive block to break down, and you know, for for

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Speaker 2: Everton offensively, you know it's gonna be for them getting

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Speaker 2: in those transition moments. But you know, Everton wins a

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Speaker 2: lot of matches and the reason they beat Liverpool was

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Speaker 2: like they just outdueled them like in the middle, like

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Speaker 2: they just won every ground and aerial duel. But Arsenal

94
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Speaker 2: is one of the best teams at doing that as well.

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Speaker 2: Arsenals incredible at winning second ball. Since the midway point

96
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Speaker 2: of the season, they're winning sixty percent of second balls.

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Speaker 2: So it's not really like a great matchup for either

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Speaker 2: offense here, and I think we kind of get to

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Speaker 2: a stalemate and then you think about the scenario that

100
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Speaker 2: we're in goal difference no longer matters, so it's like

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Speaker 2: it's just win or you win the title and then

102
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Speaker 2: just hope that city loses. So once Arsenal gets the lead,

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Speaker 2: I don't see a scenario how they're just gonna put

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Speaker 2: foot on the gas and try to win this like

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Speaker 2: six nol like they did against west Ham. I just

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Speaker 2: don't really see a scenario how that's gonna happen. And

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Speaker 2: even if they do try and do that, they're gonna

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Speaker 2: leave themselves very exposed. And then the final point is

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Speaker 2: is these are the two teams that have relied the

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Speaker 2: most on set pieces in this season and scoring off

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Speaker 2: of them. They're also two of the best set piece defenses.

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Speaker 2: So like, it's a real stalemate going back and forth,

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Speaker 2: which I think plays out to a very low event

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Speaker 2: type of match. So I do like under three and

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Speaker 2: a half of minus one ten only have two point

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Speaker 2: seven goals projected. But yeah, we'll get to City in

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Speaker 2: a second. But I'm just you know, hoping and praying

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Speaker 2: to God that's David Moyes has one last masterclass in.

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Speaker 5: Them, you might.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I look at this, My handicap for this

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Speaker 4: match is well, first of all, the number is just

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Speaker 4: way too high. And Everden, Yeah, like we I think

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Speaker 4: anybody can see that this is a team that has

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Speaker 4: been decent for the majority of the season. We've talked

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Speaker 4: about them, perhaps more than any team in the league

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Speaker 4: because of the the way that they're under process.

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Speaker 2: What's that they're interesting?

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Speaker 5: They are interesting?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, no, they are every like it's they're interesting from

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Speaker 4: a off the field drama perspective. Of course, they're interesting

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Speaker 4: from a betting perspective. But I think you said two

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Speaker 4: things that are important here. One is they win like

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Speaker 4: Everden wins games. They've got thirteen on the year. That's

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Speaker 4: not bad at all. I mean that puts them right

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Speaker 4: around the same kind of part of the table as

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Speaker 4: teams like who we're really high on a team like Brighton.

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Speaker 4: They've got as more wins than Fulham, as many as

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Speaker 4: Wolves who had a great start. Like this is a

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Speaker 4: team that they can win. They've already had a big

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Speaker 4: upset recently in the Liverpool match where Liverpool lost the

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Speaker 4: league at Goodison Park, and they're just they're hard to beat.

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Speaker 4: That is perhaps their biggest trade and they're absolutely going

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Speaker 4: to be up for this. This is going to be

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Speaker 4: this is a huge match. They've got a great center

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Speaker 4: back pairing. Like you said, they're good on set pieces

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Speaker 4: both directions, and they've got a great goalkeeper too, so

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Speaker 4: they have They're going to get out played, right, They're

148
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Speaker 4: not gonna have a lot of the ball, They're gonna

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Speaker 4: the field is going to be tilted, but they have

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Speaker 4: the pieces to pull this off. And I think it's

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Speaker 4: as simple as that. When you're looking at a fifteen

152
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Speaker 4: to one money line out there, that's the highest I

153
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Speaker 4: see just cruising around. So yeah, I mean it's it

154
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Speaker 4: is evident for me. I've been the money line. Prices

155
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Speaker 4: already high, it might get higher. I do suspect that

156
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Speaker 4: some sharper money will back Evert in here just because

157
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Speaker 4: of the landish price. But you said so we cannot

158
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Speaker 4: transition to the city game because I think these two

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Speaker 4: matches I'm approaching very differently. I think Everton and Arsenal.

160
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Speaker 4: You like the under I think that's a good shout

161
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Speaker 4: as well, because this one is going to play out

162
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Speaker 4: like a classic. One team is tight, the other team

163
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Speaker 4: is going to be really good at playing against the

164
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Speaker 4: tight team, and all the pressure in the world on

165
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Speaker 4: Arsenal a goal, does you know, pull their release valve

166
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Speaker 4: and and take this game to a different direction. But

167
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Speaker 4: it's going to be hard for them to score. So

168
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Speaker 4: I feel like that's this is going to be the

169
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Speaker 4: white knuckle game. We've seen a lot of these instances

170
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Speaker 4: in UH city title races where they've had they have

171
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Speaker 4: a pivotal game or even on like the last match

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Speaker 4: of the season a couple of seasons ago, where they've

173
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Speaker 4: needed to come like it just is what it is, like,

174
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Speaker 4: there's so much drama. There's so much pressure on these

175
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Speaker 4: matches that you have to think about. You have to

176
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Speaker 4: weigh the possibility of the script getting thrown out. It's

177
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Speaker 4: gonna happen at some point on Sunday, right, There's gonna

178
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Speaker 4: be a part. There's going to be a part of

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Speaker 4: the morning where something crazy happens all of a sudden,

180
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Speaker 4: maybe City goes behind or Arsenal goes behind. It's almost

181
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Speaker 4: it feels almost certain that it's going to happen, and

182
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Speaker 4: I feel like it's more likely to happen in the

183
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Speaker 4: City West Ham game, which has a lot more chaos

184
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Speaker 4: written into the profiles of these two teams than then

185
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Speaker 4: I think the Arsenal Everton match. So that's the odds

186
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Speaker 4: are once again completely lopsided. If you're just looking at

187
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Speaker 4: pure value perspective. West Ham at twenty to one, I

188
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Speaker 4: mean that's a longer number than we've seen like Sheffield

189
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Speaker 4: United and Newton against City this year. So they're twenty

190
00:09:56,559 --> 00:10:00,280
Speaker 4: to one, Cities minus one thousand, the draws plus eight fifty. Again,

191
00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,679
Speaker 4: I will be tempted by the west Ham moneylens. I

192
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,360
Speaker 4: think it is inflated. I don't think it's going to

193
00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:06,560
Speaker 4: win but I do like west Ham to score first

194
00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:10,280
Speaker 4: plus four sixty. There's a big number on that because

195
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,199
Speaker 4: they can, like they have a great ship set piece

196
00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,200
Speaker 4: attack like James Ward Prows can do it. It can

197
00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:23,760
Speaker 4: work magic should he get a chance. Like they have

198
00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,480
Speaker 4: the pieces to give City issues and this is their

199
00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,719
Speaker 4: super Bowl as well. Like I all the pressure in

200
00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,400
Speaker 4: the world once again on City. They could come out tight,

201
00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,160
Speaker 4: they could come out flat, They can come out loose.

202
00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,640
Speaker 4: One mistake ends up in the back and net plus

203
00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:38,959
Speaker 4: four sixty on a team like west Ham to score

204
00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,840
Speaker 4: first I think is a really good bet, really really

205
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:42,320
Speaker 4: good bet.

206
00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:44,520
Speaker 5: What are your thoughts here?

207
00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I wrote it down. You've mentioned, you know,

208
00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,760
Speaker 2: City going down to Aston Villa back in two thousand

209
00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:56,520
Speaker 2: and twenty two. This is now the fifth time that

210
00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,080
Speaker 2: they are going to be in where a situation where

211
00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,560
Speaker 2: it's on the final day they just have to win

212
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,360
Speaker 2: and then they win the title very famously. Back in

213
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Speaker 2: twenty twelve they needed two stoppage time goals against QPR,

214
00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:12,160
Speaker 2: who is near the bottom of the table. Then twenty

215
00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:16,200
Speaker 2: fourteen they beat west Ham to nothing. In twenty nineteen

216
00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:19,839
Speaker 2: they beat Brightened for one to win over Liverpool to

217
00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,480
Speaker 2: win the title over Liverpool, and then again in twenty

218
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Speaker 2: twenty two they went, like you said, down two goals

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Speaker 2: to ask and Villa and needed to come back and win.

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Speaker 2: So my point is is that on the final day

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Speaker 2: in all of these scenarios, there have been essentially three

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Speaker 2: times where they've been playing a team that's near the

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Speaker 2: bottom of the table and they're a huge favorite, and

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Speaker 2: with the mounting pressure of everything that's going on, it's

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Speaker 2: kind of hard to blow those teams out. So I

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Speaker 2: like west Ham plus three, you can get it round

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Speaker 2: minus one forty. I'm not going to sit here and

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Speaker 2: tell you that west Ham is a good defense or

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Speaker 2: to be able to keep Citty out, because they're not.

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Speaker 2: Like that's just the truth of the matter. But I

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Speaker 2: didn't think City was great against Tottenham on Tuesday. I

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Speaker 2: know everybody was like, oh, it was only a matter

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Speaker 2: of time before they scored. They didn't create over one

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Speaker 2: expected goal from from non penalty situations. They took four

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Speaker 2: shots including the penalty in the second half, they gave

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Speaker 2: away a couple of transition opportunities and Tottenham ended up

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Speaker 2: winning the expected goals battle. So I didn't think they

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Speaker 2: were that good. And if you look at the players

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Speaker 2: that west Ham has with the Keta, with Bowen, with kudos,

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Speaker 2: they have guys who are not only you know, good

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Speaker 2: in terms of pace and getting in behind, but those

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Speaker 2: guys are outstanding ball carriers. And that's what a lot

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Speaker 2: of transition teams maybe have kind of struggled with against

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Speaker 2: City is like, when you have good ball carriers, you

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Speaker 2: can play through a pretty average press, which is what City.

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Speaker 3: Is right now.

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Speaker 2: And Pep, I mean, this is going to be a

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Speaker 2: situation where west Ham's going to park the bus. They're

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Speaker 2: going to play as low as block is a use

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Speaker 2: as you can find, and they're going to try to

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Speaker 2: transition from deep, which means a lot of guys gonna

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Speaker 2: be pushed up on that back line. So it's gonna

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Speaker 2: leave west Ham in a lot of two v two

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Speaker 2: and three v three situations in transition. And Pap has

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Speaker 2: kind of just accepted that it is what it is.

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Speaker 2: But Michael, there have been fourteen matches this season with

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Speaker 2: west Ham where they have held under thirty five percent possession.

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Speaker 2: I would put a lot of money they're gonna hold

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Speaker 2: under thirty five percent here in those fourteen matches, they

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Speaker 2: are six three and five, they've won the expected goals

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Speaker 2: bet in half of them. I mean, yes, they've gotten

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Speaker 2: blown out in a couple of them. Yeah, of course

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Speaker 2: they have like that, there is the possibility of that happens,

264
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Speaker 2: but they have proven themselves that, like if they stick

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Speaker 2: to who they are and not a team that's like, oh,

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Speaker 2: you know, let's try to build it out of the

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Speaker 2: back a little bit, like let's try to control the ball,

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Speaker 2: and then they're like, just like no, if they go

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Speaker 2: back to and the might The match that keeps in

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Speaker 2: my head was I think it was the third or

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Speaker 2: fourth week of the season when they played Brighton at

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Speaker 2: Brighton and they just sat as deep as possible, They

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Speaker 2: didn't even try and press them and they just put

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Speaker 2: on a counter attack and clinic.

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Speaker 3: Yep, they can do that.

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Speaker 2: They can do that in this type of match because

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Speaker 2: of how much City is going to be pushed up

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Speaker 2: on that on that back line. So and now we

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Speaker 2: are also in a situation where again goal difference no

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Speaker 2: longer matters, so he doesn't need to make up anything.

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Speaker 2: So if they go up one or two goals in

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Speaker 2: this game, I think we all know who bet Guardiola

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Speaker 2: is at this point, Like I don't see a scenario

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Speaker 2: where he's going to try to keep pushing forward and

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Speaker 2: have them win four or five nothing and leave themselves

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00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 2: potentially exposed to a transition opportunity. So I like west

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Speaker 2: Ham plus three at minus. If City wins iss by

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Speaker 2: more than three goals, like hats off to them. But

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Speaker 2: given the situation, the pressure that's on them, I don't

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Speaker 2: see a scenario how once they get a two goals

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Speaker 2: they don't just shut this thing down and just say

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Speaker 2: like this is it, It's over.

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Speaker 4: Yep, yeah, no, I'm I'm with you. I think that

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Speaker 4: there's there's a way to to attack. That's like I

295
00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:02,680
Speaker 4: actually don't hate the the west Ham halftime City full

296
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:06,120
Speaker 4: time score line prop either, because, like you said, that

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00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,040
Speaker 4: the City attack is going to score against this defense

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Speaker 4: unless they truly do sell out, which I don't expect

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Speaker 4: west Ham to do. So that's how I'm approaching it.

300
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,520
Speaker 4: My My my game script that I'm betting into is west

301
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,920
Speaker 4: Ham finding away early to get on the board and

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Speaker 4: from there City taking over.

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Speaker 5: So that's how we try.

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Speaker 2: To and for the true siccos out there who would

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00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,360
Speaker 2: like to see the most painful possible thing happened to Arsenal.

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00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,920
Speaker 2: The Everton west Ham money line parlay is three d

307
00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:39,680
Speaker 2: and fourteen to one.

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00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:43,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you got it a true though.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean look were we that we well do

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Speaker 4: the podcast for siccos yeah that that Tottenham.

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Speaker 2: And I will say Michael, as far as your bet

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Speaker 2: for west Ham to score first, if you bet west

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Speaker 2: Ham at bet three sixty five, you get the two

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Speaker 2: goal insurance. So if they get into another situation like

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00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:05,040
Speaker 2: against Aston Villa and they just hit a couple of

316
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:06,440
Speaker 2: counter tackles like you already win.

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Speaker 3: That bet and you can right hit back.

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Speaker 5: So great point.

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Speaker 2: Just another reason to bet at bet three six five.

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00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:12,600
Speaker 5: That's right.

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00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 4: And speaking of Bet three six five, will remind you

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00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:17,240
Speaker 4: that wonder goal is presented by bet three six five

323
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Speaker 4: and Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why

324
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:21,480
Speaker 4: you get more boots with them than anyone else. Every

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00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 4: day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets

326
00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:24,920
Speaker 4: to give you a chance to win more. Bet three

327
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Speaker 4: six five boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays,

328
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Speaker 4: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boosts.

330
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,800
Speaker 4: Check out the boots and see why it's never ordinary.

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00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 4: Bet three sixty five. You must be twenty one or

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00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 4: older in President in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey,

333
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 4: North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

334
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 4: You or anyone you know has a gambling problem and

335
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,480
Speaker 4: wants help, please call one E one hundred gambler or

336
00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:50,520
Speaker 4: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions and

337
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,760
Speaker 4: restrictions to apply. All right, So that's the title race.

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Speaker 4: City with a two point advantage. As you said, the

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00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 4: goal differential won't come into play because of if City ties,

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Speaker 4: Arsenal wins, it goes to Arsenal.

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Speaker 5: Let's get to the rest of the board. Not all

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Speaker 5: that much at stake.

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Speaker 4: Technically, Newton Town can survive. They just need not in

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Speaker 4: a force to lose by about ten and then they

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Speaker 4: need to win by a bunch. But the relegation battle

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Speaker 4: is done. You can stick a fork into everyone. There's

347
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Speaker 4: some stuff to sort through for a place in the

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00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 4: top six as well, but we'll get to all of

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Speaker 4: that as we go down the board. It'll be a

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Speaker 4: lot quicker than our discussions on City and Arsenal's matches obviously,

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Speaker 4: and we'll.

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Speaker 5: Start with Brentford and Newcastle.

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Speaker 4: This one at the community Brentford Community Stadium, where the

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Speaker 4: Bees are plus two hundred on the three way line,

355
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 4: Newcastle traveling at plus one twenty. The draw here is

356
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 4: plus two sixty. Like you, I think Brentford has a

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00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,159
Speaker 4: shred of value here and it might just be because

358
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,600
Speaker 4: people are going to betting into Newcastle needing a win

359
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,800
Speaker 4: in the top six race.

360
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 2: Yeah. So, I mean Newcastle on Wednesday against United defensively

361
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 2: was let's just say, not good. Like there was a

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Speaker 2: lot of situations where they allowed transition opportunities. I mean

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Speaker 2: the first goal they conceded to Man, it was like

364
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 2: one of the like simplest goals that you could ever see.

365
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 2: I mean he he got to touch the ball, stand

366
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Speaker 2: there for a full second and then just kind of

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Speaker 2: kick it in like he was at practice. And you know,

368
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 2: Newcastle is getting some guys healthy, you know, shar and

369
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Speaker 2: Joe Linton came on in the second half. This really

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Speaker 2: isn't that great of a matchup for them, right because

371
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:46,199
Speaker 2: brent Because Brentford does a couple of things that you know,

372
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 2: if if Newcastle once continue to play aggressively out of

373
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Speaker 2: possession like they got into a transition battle with United.

374
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 2: But United just plays way too open, like Brentford doesn't

375
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 2: allow you those easy, like open transition type opportunities, so

376
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 2: it's much more difficult than it was at United on Wednesday.

377
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 2: And another thing, Newcastle's one of the worst teams defending

378
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 2: set pieces like they are eighteenth the next cheaper set

379
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,880
Speaker 2: piece allowed horrible thing to be going up against Brentford

380
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:17,920
Speaker 2: at that at that rate. And we all know the

381
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 2: story with Brentford at this point in the season, Like

382
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,879
Speaker 2: we don't need to regurgitate over and over about how

383
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 2: much they've underperformed in the bad luck run they've gone

384
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 2: on during this second half of the season. The offensive

385
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:29,640
Speaker 2: numbers have taken a little bit of dip for last

386
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 2: four matches. I was potentially looking to play their team

387
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 2: total over one and a half, but I mean, they

388
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,119
Speaker 2: haven't created over one and a half started goals in

389
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 2: four or five matches, so would rather just play them,

390
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 2: you know, plus a half. I have this project pretty

391
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 2: close to a pick them. I think when you account

392
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,160
Speaker 2: for home field and you look at all the underlying numbers,

393
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 2: Brentford's been you know, the eleventh or twelfth best team

394
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 2: in the Premier League this year, but they're down in

395
00:19:56,359 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 2: sixteenth place, where you know, Newcastle has drastic Holman road

396
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:07,399
Speaker 2: splits as well. So yeah, it's it's it's Brentford or nothing,

397
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,560
Speaker 2: just because of the stakes that Newcastle have, because they

398
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 2: they have to go for it, and well they have

399
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 2: to go for it, and they don't have to go

400
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 2: for it because if they go for it and they

401
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 2: potentially lose, they open the door for United to get

402
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 2: the Conference League spot. Whereas if so they're in this

403
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 2: like really weird precarious position. I'm sure they'll just play

404
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 2: normally how they would like, you know, just any other match.

405
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 2: But but I mean, Brentford's got all their attackers healthy.

406
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 3: So yeah, the bees at home, yep, bees.

407
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 4: At home for me as well. I think you laid

408
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 4: out a good case. Not too much more if you

409
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 4: get into here. Newcastle has to go for it. In

410
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 4: that battle for the top six. The team that they're

411
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 4: trying to catch is Chelsea who are occupying that spot.

412
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 4: They could still catch Tottenham in fifth place and are

413
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 4: in roaring form. Chelsea has to win and hope Tottenham

414
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 4: loses to have a chance they have the gold differential

415
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 4: edge on the on Spurs and they are looking to

416
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 4: close out their season in style gets Bournemouth. The number

417
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 4: looks pretty crazy in my opinion. It's minus two twenty

418
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,400
Speaker 4: three on Chelsea at home, Bourne at traveling at plus

419
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 4: five twenty five. The draw here is plus three fifty.

420
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 4: It is Sundays must win tax Day, like it just

421
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 4: is right, like it's it's always going to be like

422
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 4: this on the last day of the season, and not

423
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 4: just in the Premier League. Right like in football or baseball,

424
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 4: the team that needs to win on the last day

425
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 4: to get a playoff berth or to nail down home

426
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,159
Speaker 4: field advantage against the team that's just playing out the string.

427
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 4: It's just always going to happen. And that's not to

428
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 4: say that these teams, you know, you shouldn't ever consider

429
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 4: betting it, right, but as good as Chelsea's been down

430
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,719
Speaker 4: the stretch, and they have been good, I think this

431
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 4: number looks pretty appetite and a team that we rate

432
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 4: pretty highly here in Bourne Myth, So yeah, it'll be

433
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 4: a Bourne Myth money line play for me here.

434
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 2: Bj Yeah, I like Bournemouth plus one and a half

435
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 2: on the spread, so yes, Chelsea's been improving, there's been

436
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 2: no doubt about that, and the underlying metrics have been

437
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 2: good all season long, or you know, essentially about the

438
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 2: fourth or fifth best team by expected gold differential. But

439
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:28,879
Speaker 2: so the reason they've been improving lately, if you go

440
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 2: look at the teams that they've played, it's a lot

441
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 2: of teams that are either playing in a passive defensive

442
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 2: block or just aren't that good at pressing. So you know,

443
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 2: they can put up big numbers against teams like west Ham, Nottingham,

444
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 2: Florest Aston Villa, that's fine, but when they play really

445
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: good pressing teams like Tottenham, Arsenal and City, they have struggled.

446
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 2: Against those three opponents. They have allowed sixty one high recoveries,

447
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 2: which is essentially just how many times an opponent gains

448
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 2: possession in your own final third, which you know, just

449
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 2: shows that they've come along the way as a good

450
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 2: build up team. But when they face really really good

451
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 2: pressing teams, it's it kind of tends to fall apart.

452
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: And Bournemouth is a really good pressing team. They're up

453
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 2: to sixth and pass per defense action overall for the season,

454
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,919
Speaker 2: but since the calendar turned to twenty twenty four. Bournemouth

455
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 2: has a passive per defensive action of eight point eight

456
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 2: that is third best in the league, behind the late

457
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:25,199
Speaker 2: Liverpool and Tottenham. So what Bournemouth does best, and we

458
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 2: know this about them, is that they force high turnovers

459
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 2: and they get these easy transition opportunities and they kill

460
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 2: you that way. And they can do the exact same

461
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: thing here to Chelsea, who is still pretty weak defending

462
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 2: in transition for the season. Chelsea's eighteenth and final third

463
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 2: to box entry converged rate allowed. They've allowed numerous amounts

464
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 2: of chances, including on Sunday or excuse me, on Saturday

465
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 2: to Nottingham Forest, I mean Forrest had I can't even

466
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 2: count how many easy transition opportunities where they were just

467
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: going three v three or two v two versus the

468
00:23:55,800 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 2: Chelsea back line. And Bournemouth does an outstanding job of

469
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 2: not only hitting through the middle of the pitch, but

470
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 2: they like to get the ball out wide and they

471
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 2: like to send it a lot of crosses. Chelsea is

472
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: allowing one of the highest cross completion rates in the

473
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 2: penalty area so far all throughout the entire season, whereas

474
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 2: Bournemouth is top five.

475
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 3: And crosses into the opponent's penalty area.

476
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 2: So inflated line. And even if we just took oh

477
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 2: from you know, March first on, I mean Chelsea has

478
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 2: been about two or three goals better than Bournemouth unexpected

479
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 2: gole differential, So it's a very inflated line. Because Chelsea

480
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 2: they can still get into fifth place and snatch the

481
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 2: Europa League spot from Tottenham, so it's all balls to

482
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 2: the wall. Whereas Bournemouth, I think top half would matter

483
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 2: a lot to them given the way the season has gone.

484
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 2: So I think you're going to get a really really

485
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,360
Speaker 2: good performance for them because I think that's something they've

486
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 2: been eyeing for a long time. And if they achieve that,

487
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 2: not only we'll cast a bunch of bets that we

488
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 2: have placed throughout the season, but it'll be a huge accomplishment.

489
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 3: I think they're their highest ever finished merely.

490
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I think you're spot on. I think this

491
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 4: is a an all out effort from honestly, both these teams.

492
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 4: And we've seen Chelsea enough, not lately, not recently. Obviously

493
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 4: recent form tells a different story, but we have seen

494
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 4: Chelsea have serious issues and you don't have to go

495
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 4: that far back to see a dreadful performance against Arsenal

496
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:26,200
Speaker 4: back what was that late April? Yeah, they can throw

497
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 4: a doud. So I do think that this is a

498
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 4: bet on Bournemouth here. So four matches, four bets from

499
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 4: from both of us and in all of them.

500
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 5: It's going to slow down here.

501
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 4: Now things get a little a little less appealing in

502
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 4: terms of from a betting perspective, but we'll do our

503
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 4: best here. Next up is Brighton Man United. As you said,

504
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 4: United one their home finale against Newcastle over the midweek

505
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 4: and now they traveled to Brighton as a plus two

506
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 4: to ten underdog. Seagulls are plus one oh five at

507
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,959
Speaker 4: home and the draws three to one. I've got nothing here.

508
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 4: I mean I think I had rather bet United, but

509
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna.

510
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got something and I don't think I'm gonna

511
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 2: do it, but I'm thinking about it. Under three and

512
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 2: a half is plus money right now, which I think

513
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 2: is a little high considering how bad Brighton have been offensively.

514
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 2: Since the beginning of February. Brighton has created nineteen point

515
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:31,479
Speaker 2: four expected goals. That is dead last in the Premier League.

516
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: That's how bad their offense has just completely fallen off

517
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 2: and I think we've seen from United and especially ten Hog,

518
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 2: is that the crazy pressing style that they were playing

519
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: for a lot of the season. They've kind of they

520
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 2: haven't completely backed off of it, but they've kind of

521
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: backed off a little bit and they've kind he's kind

522
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: of conceded the fact that maybe we can't.

523
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 3: Get stuck in between two different things.

524
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: So it was very funny today though at at Old

525
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 2: Trafford he was given a speech at the end. It

526
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 2: sounds like it's like from what I've read on the

527
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 2: internet is that it's fifty to fifty if he keeps

528
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,360
Speaker 2: his job. So the FA Cup final might be the

529
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 2: for his job, quite frankly, and I really hope he

530
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 2: keeps his job because he's been really fun to bet

531
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 2: against and he'll be more even more fun to bet

532
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 2: against next season. But yeah, like that's the total is

533
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 2: just very high, especially considering you know, he may go

534
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 2: balls to the wall and it's may be one of

535
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 2: those matches potentially live bet. But I know there were

536
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 2: you know, five goals today with Newcastle and it looked horrible.

537
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 2: But Brighton's not a transition team, Like they're not a

538
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 2: team like Newcastle, who's just gonna play up and down

539
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 2: with United. They want to slow things down, they want

540
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 2: to build out of the back, and they want to

541
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 2: progress the ball via short passes. So I don't know

542
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 2: if I'll end up doing it, because it's just like

543
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 2: it's one of those like taking under with United right now,

544
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 2: it just seems like it's not the smartest thing to do.

545
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna stare at that for a long time

546
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 2: because I only projected three point two goals, so under

547
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,640
Speaker 2: three and a half and even money would project.

548
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 3: A little bit of value there.

549
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna see if the solo just keeps rise,

550
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 2: maybe we can get to three point seventy five at

551
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 2: a decent number, and then maybe we'll be in.

552
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this could be the classic. You know,

553
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 4: neither team nil nil. Yeah, exactly as I say, neither

554
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 4: team wants to do it. I have a nil nil

555
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 4: later that is going to be my nil and man

556
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:24,719
Speaker 4: man alive?

557
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 5: Where we right there?

558
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 2: Oh? We were, Oh, we were talking about the first

559
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 2: goal for a city. There's some there's some images going

560
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 2: around the internet that that might have been off sides.

561
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 2: Who knows, I'm not I now looking at it, I

562
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 2: don't think it was off side, but there are some

563
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 2: images going around that says it might have been off sides,

564
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 2: and then who knows what happens after that I think

565
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 2: gets ruled out.

566
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, who knows.

567
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 4: I mean, we got through the first half and I

568
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 4: know a classic good bet that doesn't win, yep, But

569
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 4: I don't worry. I have a nilil the nil nil

570
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 4: of the week coming up a little later, and it's

571
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 4: a doozy but we can't get there just yet. We'll

572
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 4: talk about Crystal Palace and aston Villa. Next Palace at

573
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 4: home is ADSA. It gets aston Villa, who are in

574
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 4: fourth place in the Premier League. This is a crazy number,

575
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 4: crazy number.

576
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 5: That I said this a lot last season.

577
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 4: I haven't said it as much of this year because

578
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 4: I think people and you and Anthony maybe just got

579
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 4: tired of hearing it. But one thing that you always

580
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 4: have to remember when you're betting any sport, and it's

581
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 4: the beginning of the season or in the middle of

582
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 4: the season, is just how much changes over like a

583
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 4: course of eight weeks or a course of you know,

584
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 4: a season. And Palace has been the team that we

585
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 4: keep saying that I keep bringing up as the example

586
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 4: of this every season because I was like, before last year,

587
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 4: we were all high on them, and I was like,

588
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 4: if I told you that they fired Patrick Vieira and

589
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 4: then brought in Roy Hodgson like in the middle of

590
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 4: the year, like what would you You would call me nuts,

591
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 4: You'd say, like, that's you're crazy thinking that that's what's

592
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 4: gonna happen. Now, if I told you two months ago

593
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 4: that Palace would be odds on against aston Villa at

594
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 4: home in the final week of the season, you would

595
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 4: assume that everybody on aston Villa, from you know, player

596
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 4: one on the lineup card each week to player twenty

597
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 4: was arrested or something it couldn't play.

598
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 5: But here we are.

599
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 4: It's this Oliver Gloschner revolution is in full force. Palace

600
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 4: is the trendy team in the Premier League to close

601
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 4: out the year. I cannot wait to see what they're

602
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 4: bet to in futures markets as soon as the season flips.

603
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 4: This number is crazy, but I'm not betting against them,

604
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 4: just I have too much other stuff I want to

605
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 4: bet and the number plus two eighty on Villa it's

606
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 4: just not I mean, it's crazy to say this, but

607
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 4: it's just not that interesting.

608
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 5: Considering this as a dead rubber match for them. They

609
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 5: don't They're not going to So this.

610
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 2: Match opened to a pick them like it was a

611
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 2: dead pick them before. Essentially we got to the situation

612
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 2: where aston Villa had qualified for the top four essentially

613
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: before the Liverpool match, because if they would have lost

614
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: that then I'm guessing this would have probably still hovered

615
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 2: around to pick them. But yeah, it's crazy, like what

616
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 2: but again, like I mean, in all technicality, like Pat,

617
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 2: I know, Palace is rocking right now, but they don't

618
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 2: have anything to play for. Like it's not like they're

619
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 2: playing for Europa League spot or something or stave off relegation.

620
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 2: Like it's just Asa Villa finally has like the sigh

621
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: of relief of they've gotten into the Champions League. They

622
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 2: partied and who knows what type of rotated squad we're

623
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 2: gonna see. I'll say this, Michael, if Palace gets to

624
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 2: I mean, we're we keep trending this way, so I

625
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 2: wouldn't honestly wouldn't shock me if they get to like

626
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 2: minus one fifty, like I'm in on Villa, like if

627
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: they played like any of the starters because and there's

628
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 2: no real data point that I can tell you that,

629
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: you know, Phil has been better than Pala. I mean

630
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 2: it's just hard, right because, like, as I think about

631
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 2: this match and how it's gonna play out, we know

632
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 2: how Villa plays with their very compact for four two.

633
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: Playing the high line.

634
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 2: I mean as A and a Lease are more of

635
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 2: get the ball in their feet as opposed to get

636
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: in behind the back line. The type of attackers now

637
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: matatsas to get in behind the back line type of striker.

638
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 3: So he can cause a lot of problems.

639
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: And if you want to bet somebody to score, he

640
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: might be the guy because obviously he's been in great form.

641
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 2: But in terms of how this match is going to

642
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 2: play out, he's probably gonna be the one that's gonna

643
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 2: be getting in high behind at Villa's back line. I mean, yeah,

644
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 2: the Liver performance at Liverpool, like they you know, Johann

645
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 2: Duran comes on and just you know, bang bang gets

646
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: them back three three three. But it was a pretty

647
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: bad performance from Villa overall there too. So if Villa

648
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: gets to minus one fifty, I mean, excuse me, if

649
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 2: Palace gets to minus one fifty, I think I have

650
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 2: to hop in on Villa at some point. I don't

651
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 2: want to at all, I really don't. But there are

652
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 2: some points when we're betting, when it just gets to

653
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: a point where you got to throw what feels good

654
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 2: aside and just know that you're betting into something that

655
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 2: has an enormous amount of value.

656
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 5: It's crazy, palace man.

657
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 4: What They're a fascinating group that brings us to Luton

658
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 4: Town in Fulham, this one Louton Town. Like I said,

659
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,719
Speaker 4: they're they're done. I mean, I won't want to say

660
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 4: it would take a miracle for them to either.

661
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: This is this is not happening. That's all they go

662
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: around that there was a for for Louton Town to

663
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 2: stay up was like eighty to one.

664
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 3: I was like, you gotta be kidding me. That's a

665
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 3: horrible number.

666
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 4: Five thousand, yeah, five thousand one. But yeah, they'd have

667
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 4: to make up a twelve goal difference against Nottingham Forrest

668
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 4: who's playing Burnley right.

669
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 5: So yeah, uh.

670
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 4: There plus what's seventy at home Fulham Traveling plus one

671
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 4: twenty five the draw plus two ninety nothing for me here.

672
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 5: I'm happy to move on.

673
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, the number is kind of appealing a little bit

674
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 2: on Fulham, just from a peer numbers play like I

675
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 2: had Fulham closer to plus one ten that type of range.

676
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: You know, obviously Looton Town has to go for it.

677
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 2: They're gonna play very aggressively out of possession, which is

678
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,359
Speaker 2: going to leave space in behind for Fulham who can

679
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 2: definitely hit you in transition. And Fulham obviously has great

680
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 2: ball stoppers in the middle of the pitch. They do

681
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 2: a decent job of defending crosses. They're okay, best set

682
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 2: piece defense, just I'll be flat honest that performance against

683
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 2: a city it looked like they were ready to go

684
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 2: to whatever beautiful Greek island they were going to vacation

685
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 2: at once the season was over. So I have no

686
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 2: interest really in a team that doesn't look like they care,

687
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: so I'm passing.

688
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:49,240
Speaker 5: Okay.

689
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:54,760
Speaker 4: That brings us on to Sheffield United and Tottenham next.

690
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 4: I kind of like United here the Blades they are

691
00:34:58,680 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 4: a big underdog and the.

692
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 5: But they're at home.

693
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,919
Speaker 4: They're six to one Tottenham minus two seventy five plus

694
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 4: four to twenty five on the draw. Spurs have just

695
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 4: looked a little messy, I think, and they do have

696
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 4: something to play for in their battle with Chelsea. They

697
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 4: just need a point. But I think that their defensive

698
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 4: issues here kind of just make them right for picking

699
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 4: for a team that's you'd imagine would play pretty loose.

700
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 4: And I know Sheffield United has won three games all year.

701
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,720
Speaker 4: I didn't think they were terrible against Everden. They've had

702
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 4: some really, really really dire performances though, since they've been

703
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 4: not officially relegated, but everybody knew it was all but

704
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 4: a certainty. So I'm expecting them to go out on

705
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 4: their shield a bit. But is that going to be enough?

706
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 4: Probably not, but I think the number is decent enough.

707
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 5: The one thing I'll say.

708
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 4: About Spurs is like, yeah, they've they've looked a little ragged,

709
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,360
Speaker 4: but the run in for them was brutal. I mean

710
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 4: they caught Liverpool Arsenal City all down the stretch here.

711
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 4: Chelsea team that has found some boring form.

712
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 5: So I'm not expecting it.

713
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 4: I think that if the number gets high enough on

714
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 4: Sheffield United, I play it playing on the money line.

715
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 4: I would need closer to seven to one. That's six

716
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 4: to one, but it's definitely not the worst bet on

717
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 4: the board.

718
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 5: Let's just say that b JA.

719
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, under under four is at about minus one ten

720
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 2: right now, which I think is kind of interesting when

721
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 2: you consider the situation, like you just mentioned that Tottenham

722
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 2: is in where they just need to draw and they

723
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 2: snatch up that Europa League spot, and since they don't

724
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 2: have goal difference to probably behoove them to just either

725
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: win this match one nothing or just kind of going

726
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 2: it is. But you know, even though I mean, you

727
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 2: can go look at Sheffield is obviously conceded over one

728
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 2: hundred goals if you go expected goals, it's been like

729
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:04,839
Speaker 2: one the most drastic underperformances that the Premier has ever

730
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:09,760
Speaker 2: seen defensively, just because of good finishing and really horrible

731
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 2: goalkeeping is basically what it comes down to. But what

732
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 2: I will say, Michael is that we have had see

733
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 2: two of Sheffield's final fifteen matches, I've had more than

734
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 2: four expectacles created just two. And I mentioned this stat

735
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 2: last week against Burnley, which remained true. We are now

736
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 2: six of Tottenham's thirty seven matches have had more than

737
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 2: four expectacles. So I'll be staring under four for a

738
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 2: little bit projected three point seven. So if this starts

739
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 2: a trend towards full under four at even money, I'll

740
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 2: probably fire on it. But yeah, I mean it should be.

741
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 2: I mean, the stakes are still a little high here

742
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,720
Speaker 2: for Tottenham, so should be a little tight as opposed

743
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 2: to just free and loose final game of the season

744
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 2: like with nothing to play.

745
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 4: For Burnley and Forest up next, the Clarts are relegated.

746
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,839
Speaker 4: Their plus one ninety at home Tricky Trees plus one

747
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 4: thirty five and the draw here plus two thirty five.

748
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 4: I think the number is good enough. On Forrest, I've

749
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:20,320
Speaker 4: kind of gone back and forth on this one. This

750
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 4: had the potential to be a relegation essentially a relegation playoff.

751
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 4: We didn't get it, of course. Oh well, but as

752
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:32,439
Speaker 4: we've said, like this Forest team is just so much

753
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 4: better than what their results have been down the stretch here,

754
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 4: and I think that this could be a really good

755
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 4: spot for them to go into the off season on

756
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 4: a high note. If you look at the expected gold

757
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 4: differential on the season, they are right in the middle

758
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 4: of the pack, like right there with Bournemouth and Palace

759
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 4: Everton in terms of expected gold differential per ninety they

760
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 4: are should be just much better and we've talked about

761
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 4: it a lot. Just the goaltending has obviously let them

762
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 4: down a time. Fourteen goals, fourteen more goals than expected

763
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 4: on the year. So yeah, I think that they're just

764
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 4: a better team. They deserve to be favorites, and the

765
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:15,399
Speaker 4: numbers still has some value.

766
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 2: I agree. So Burnley, we know that they have changed

767
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 2: to a four to four to two essentially about since November,

768
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: like I mentioned last week, but I think for this match,

769
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 2: you're going to see them go back to a four

770
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 2: to two three one like they played in the Championship,

771
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,840
Speaker 2: try to build all the bag, play possession dominant style,

772
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 2: because they just tried to do that at home against

773
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 2: Newcastle and it completely blew up in their face because

774
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 2: what happened was is that Newcastle scored a goal off

775
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,319
Speaker 2: of the transition from deep, they scored a goal off

776
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 2: of a high turnover, and they just constantly were getting

777
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 2: in behind Burnley's high line. Even though Forrest does tend

778
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: to play more passively, they have been a few matches

779
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 2: in this run in towards the end of the season

780
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 2: where they have pressed high from either pressing triggers or.

781
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 3: From dead ball situations.

782
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 2: Most notably, they had twenty one high recoveries against Wolves,

783
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 2: eleven against Everton and fifteen over the weekend against Chelsea.

784
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,720
Speaker 2: So they are capable of pressing Burnley high and causing

785
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:27,760
Speaker 2: problems if they want to, and they're Forest is becoming

786
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 2: one of the more dangerous teams in transition to I

787
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 2: know they're very very transition based, but with the ballcarriers

788
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 2: like Morgan, Gibbs, White and Hudson, Adoi and Alonga and

789
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 2: Aina like, they have a lot of pace and a

790
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 2: lot of good dribblers who can cause teams who are

791
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 2: bad in transition problems, and Burnley I would qualify as

792
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 2: a team that's bad in transition. Nottingham Forrest. Since the

793
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 2: calendar turned to twenty twenty four, they are averaging two

794
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 2: point nine to three counter attack shots per ninety minutes,

795
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: that is the most in the Premier League. Burnley is

796
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 2: allowing two point four counter attack shots per ninety that's

797
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: third most in the Premier League. So Forrest can definitely

798
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,280
Speaker 2: hit them in transition here and cause a lot of problems.

799
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:19,360
Speaker 2: And Burnley's offense continues to be terrible. I mentioned Brighton

800
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:23,439
Speaker 2: is dead last since February first and expect to goals

801
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 2: created Burnley's second to last nineteen point seven and fifteen matches,

802
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 2: So I mean, how are they going to if Forest

803
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 2: decides to play a low block, like how are they

804
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 2: going to break it down? Like Forest has allowed the

805
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 2: third fewest non penalty expected goals since in that same

806
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 2: time for him since February, So and we know with

807
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 2: Forest what's done them in Like you mentioned goalkeeping, but

808
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 2: also set pieces have done them in. Well, Burnley's dead

809
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: last them really a next few per step pees. So

810
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,720
Speaker 2: this is actually a really really good matchup for Forrest,

811
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 2: who technically do need to win, you know, to obviously

812
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 2: they just need a draw to get out of there

813
00:41:56,120 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 2: to stave off relegation. But Burnley's going to allow them

814
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 2: a lot of opportunities in transition they should be able

815
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 2: to exploit them there and win this match quite frankly,

816
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 2: So I like Forrest.

817
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 3: John Obett at minus one twenty.

818
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 4: And that does bring us to the final match in

819
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 4: the Premier League that we'll talk about this season.

820
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 5: Favorite of ours.

821
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 4: It's so good Liverpool and Wolves at Adfield, the urgend

822
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 4: clop Goodbye tour.

823
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 5: It's going to be emotional, baby, it's gonna be cringey.

824
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:31,280
Speaker 5: Get ready.

825
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 4: The Reds minus five point fifty at home, Wolves plus

826
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 4: fourteen hundred. The draw is six to one. I don't

827
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 4: know if you noticed, but I said I had a

828
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 4: nil nil that I wanted to give out that I

829
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 4: haven't give.

830
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 5: It out yet.

831
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 2: This is the one.

832
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 5: It has to be this one, all right, I.

833
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 2: Said, thought you'd be all over Wolves money line here.

834
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 5: No, I like the Wolves money line. This is a

835
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 5: you know, we talked about must win tax.

836
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 4: This is the yeah, you know, bring out the kleenex. Yeah,

837
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 4: bring out the kleenex because you're saying goodbye to Yurga

838
00:42:58,880 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 4: clop tax.

839
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 5: And in this situation, this is uh. I don't. I don't.

840
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,839
Speaker 5: This number is pretty crazy to me. Yeah, I think

841
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 5: there's some there's probably I think there's gonna be.

842
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:11,839
Speaker 4: There's actually gonna be people who laid the minus five

843
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 4: fifty with with Liverpool like none, Yeah, just no way

844
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 4: they're gonna win. Yeah, and maybe they are. I mean,

845
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 4: of course, like any bet can have value in anyone's eyes,

846
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 4: I get it. But yeah, I like the Wolves money line.

847
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 4: But I think the nil nil here would is. I mean,

848
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 4: there's no better way for me to finish up this

849
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 4: Premier League season betting giving out as my final bet

850
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 4: of the year, the nil nil in your claps last game,

851
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,240
Speaker 4: because it would be the funniest outcome and the numbers

852
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 4: too high.

853
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,479
Speaker 5: I mean, thirty to one on nil nil.

854
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 4: It's and it's not like it's not like it'd be

855
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 4: crazy considering you know, Wolves are just gonna have to,

856
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 4: you know, likelihood sit back while uh Liverpool tries to

857
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 4: press them into mission, tries to put on a show

858
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:03,920
Speaker 4: all that stuff. And I know that stuff sounds like

859
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 4: an argument against a nil neil, but it's not like

860
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 4: it's this is a two to one bet.

861
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 5: I'm talking about thirty to one.

862
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 4: So it's can Wolves just put up a big yellow

863
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 4: bus for ninety minutes at anfield that do the funniest

864
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:19,319
Speaker 4: thing imaginable? So thirty to one, nil nil, I like

865
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 4: the Wolves money line to touch here too.

866
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a bet for you. I like Wolves

867
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 2: at twelve to one for the first ten minutes. Liverpool

868
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:35,840
Speaker 2: actually has a negative goal difference in the first first

869
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes of matches, which is kind of hilarious when

870
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 2: you think about it. And then they have like the

871
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:48,919
Speaker 2: best goal difference outside of the first fifteen minutes, so yeah,

872
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 2: they've They've been scored on eight times in the first

873
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes of matches, which is just kind of an

874
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 2: hilarious thing that's just happened to them. Wolves are not

875
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 2: that great for the first fifteen minutes.

876
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 3: I'll be flat on, so they really aren't.

877
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 2: They will probably come out pretty passively. They'll probably just

878
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,760
Speaker 2: sit in some defensive block. But they're good in transition.

879
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,280
Speaker 2: They've got to, you know, most of their attackers healthy.

880
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 2: So twelve to one first ten minutes. Wolve's money line

881
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 2: will be my bet for this one.

882
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 5: That's a wonderful play. I know it goes against my

883
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 5: nil nil.

884
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 2: But I'm sorry, yeah it does.

885
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 5: It's a great car.

886
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 4: Oh, I think it's great. But hopefully one of us

887
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 4: gets a big one home there. All right, So that's

888
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 4: the Premier League. We're going to move on to the

889
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:41,760
Speaker 4: EFL Championship semi final or the playoff semi finals second legs.

890
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 4: But before we do it, just a quick words of

891
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 4: appreciation for you the listener. Thank you for listening this

892
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 4: entire Premier League season. I wanted to get that out

893
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 4: before the end of the show, which is what most

894
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 4: podcasts do, and by that time a lot of people

895
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,359
Speaker 4: tune out or cut out of any show.

896
00:45:58,520 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 5: So I just wanted to make sure we.

897
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 4: Got at across It is not lost on BJ and

898
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 4: myself that a lot of you guys have listened for

899
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 4: all three years. We get where the show is getting bigger,

900
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 4: and we're really excited to continue it into the summer.

901
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 5: For the Euros.

902
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 4: Of course, we have the Champions League final coming up

903
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 4: as well. We'll have an episode for that and the

904
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 4: Cup finals. But the Euros will be a lot of fun.

905
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 4: We did a really we had a lot of fun

906
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 4: doing the World Cup the Euros before that, where we

907
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 4: came out well ahead, so hopefully we can do that

908
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:35,240
Speaker 4: once again. But that brings us to the playoff semi finals.

909
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 4: Leads and leads of Norwich and Southampton and West brom Bja,

910
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:41,200
Speaker 4: what are your plays?

911
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 2: Yes, so neither take a place on Thursday and Friday,

912
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 2: So for those of you listening on Thursday morning, you'll

913
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 2: have to get the bets in kind early. So both

914
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:59,399
Speaker 2: matches were completely dead noil no early Sunday morning, so

915
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 2: as far as leads in Norwich are concerned, essentially what

916
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: happened was as leads came out with their normal man

917
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 2: to man high press, they were causing Norwich problems and

918
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 2: then Norwich just said after about the first fifteen minutes,

919
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:13,840
Speaker 2: Leads kind of blitzed them a little bit. They just

920
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 2: kind of said, you know what, Nope, we're going back

921
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 2: into a four to four two defensive block and we're

922
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 2: just gonna play possibly and Leads only created zero point

923
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:26,440
Speaker 2: two to five expected goals on six shots. Norwich broke

924
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 2: a couple times in transition and kind of exposed Leads,

925
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 2: but again they only created half an expected goal, so

926
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:35,320
Speaker 2: it was very very dead match. Well now everything, everything's

927
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:38,319
Speaker 2: to play for here in the second match. I am

928
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 2: projecting a little bit of value here on leads. Norwich

929
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,240
Speaker 2: has been terrible away from from home the season, minus

930
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 2: ten expected goal differential, and Leads did get twenty seven

931
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 2: touches into Norwich's penalty area, which I think is notable

932
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:56,720
Speaker 2: because expected goals wouldn't tell you that they actually.

933
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,240
Speaker 3: Were that good, but they were.

934
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:00,839
Speaker 2: They kind of lived in Norwich's final third and now

935
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 2: with them being at home, it creates a better scenario.

936
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 2: But instead of laying a big number on Leads or

937
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 2: potentially minus one because of the situation that they're in

938
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 2: because you just need to win and you're going to

939
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 2: the promotional playoff game, I like Leeds to be promoted

940
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:19,720
Speaker 2: at plus one forty. They played Southampton on the final

941
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 2: day of the season and they closed around minus one

942
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 2: sixty ish at home. So if you put them on

943
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,839
Speaker 2: a neutral field, they're going to be favored over Southampton.

944
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 2: And as we'll get to in a second, I think

945
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 2: there's a chance that what they're gonna be end up

946
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 2: playing West Brom. So I think you're going to get

947
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 2: into the promotional playoff with a better number on leads,

948
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 2: but then to be promoted now as opposed to just

949
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 2: laying a big number here. And as far as West

950
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,360
Speaker 2: Brom and Southampton is concerned, I think West Brom is

951
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,320
Speaker 2: really live in this and we'll get to in the

952
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 2: underdog segment as well. I think they're very live here

953
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 2: in the second leg. I thought their performance against Southampton

954
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 2: they struggled out of the gates. Southampton kind of blitz

955
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 2: them a little bit through about minute ten to about

956
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 2: minute thirty. They created a couple of decent chances, but

957
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 2: overall for the match, you know, West Brom is a

958
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 2: team that continues for I don't know what's been like

959
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 2: four decades now where they're just four four to two

960
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:13,759
Speaker 2: low block and let's hit you in transition. But they

961
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 2: did it very effectively against Southampton. It was a very

962
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 2: even match if you look at expected goals. They were

963
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:25,760
Speaker 2: incredibly effective in transition because they had seventeen box centuries

964
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 2: off of only thirty final third entries, So that just

965
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,720
Speaker 2: tells you how good they were getting into Southampton penalty

966
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 2: or off of transition, which has a place where Southampton

967
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:38,320
Speaker 2: has struggled. And they were really dangerous on set pieces

968
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:40,360
Speaker 2: and overall of the season they were number one in

969
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 2: the Championship an next Fuwoper set piece, well, Southampton was

970
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:47,280
Speaker 2: sixteenth in defending them. So it's not you know, Southampt's

971
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 2: going to control sixty five, maybe seventy percent of the

972
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 2: ball in this match. But they're vulnerable in transition and

973
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 2: West Brom did do a really good job of keeping

974
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 2: them out and limiting.

975
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 3: Their high quality chances.

976
00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: Like I said, held them to one expected goal on

977
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:03,359
Speaker 2: twelve shots, so very pretty low X cheaper set bee

978
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 2: or excuse me, x x cheaper shot. So I like

979
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:11,400
Speaker 2: West Brown plus a half plus one oh seven. Do

980
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: you want to bet them to be promoted? They're six

981
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 2: to one right now, which is a decent price as well.

982
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think they're definitely live here in the

983
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 2: second leg.

984
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 4: Okay, let's go through Europe, then we'll go to the

985
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 4: Bundesliga and you're going to late it with Heidenheid.

986
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 2: Yes, So the situation with the Bundesliga is top five

987
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 2: is already been settled, but relegation is not settled at all,

988
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:41,919
Speaker 2: and all these matches can be taking place at nine

989
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 2: thirty am Eastern Time on Saturday. As it stands Unyan

990
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 2: Berlin is sitting with thirty points, there are two points

991
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 2: behind Minds who has the goal difference over them for

992
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 2: the last spot in safety, and then Cologne is behind

993
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 2: Unjan Berlin three points behind them and they got to

994
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,799
Speaker 2: make up three goals. So what we're getting is some

995
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 2: must win tax on a team that needs to win

996
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 2: to get out of the relegation zone against the Heidenheim

997
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 2: team that I haven't been really that high on. But

998
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:15,120
Speaker 2: they're a decent transition attack. They play very, very direct

999
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 2: and they have been decent.

1000
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 3: At doing that.

1001
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:19,800
Speaker 2: I mean, I have been protected at minus one eleven

1002
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 2: if this was just a normal match, because I mean

1003
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,880
Speaker 2: Cologne got to win against Unjan Blin. But there hasn't

1004
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:28,399
Speaker 2: been a performance over the last month when they've been

1005
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 2: trying to get out of the relegation zone where you

1006
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:33,399
Speaker 2: can point to it and say, yes, they've really improved, Like, yes,

1007
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 2: they've played a lot better. So I don't know. I

1008
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:39,360
Speaker 2: think it's a it's a way too inflated line.

1009
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 3: So I like Hidenheim.

1010
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 2: Drawno bet at minus one ten just playing against the

1011
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,879
Speaker 2: must win tacks in Syria. I like Napoli Droono Bett

1012
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 2: had even money against Fiorentina. If you've listened to show

1013
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 2: long enough, you know my thoughts about Fiorentina and how

1014
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 2: kind of fraudulent they've been I guess, for lack of

1015
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:57,840
Speaker 2: a better word, this season close to an even expected

1016
00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 2: goal differential. If you look at all the field till

1017
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 2: to progressive pass numbers, like you'll think they're one of

1018
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 2: the best teams in Europe, and they are very good

1019
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 2: at progressing the ball into the final third. But once

1020
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:08,279
Speaker 2: they get the ball into the final third, it just

1021
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,280
Speaker 2: kind of ends in a shot outside of the box

1022
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 2: or it just kind of falls apart. And Napoli, although

1023
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 2: they have nothing to play for, they've been pretty good

1024
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 2: from underlying data perspective all season long. They have significantly

1025
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 2: better expectable deferential than Fiorentina, and Florentina's got one eye

1026
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 2: on the Conference League final, so I think they're just

1027
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,399
Speaker 2: gonna use this as a tune up. So I think

1028
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 2: the price on Napoli and Drona beet It even money

1029
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:38,839
Speaker 2: is good enough. And then La Liga via Real Real

1030
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:42,839
Speaker 2: Madrid over three and a half at plus one oh five.

1031
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 2: Real Madrid played a full strength lineup against Alabas on Tuesday.

1032
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:54,480
Speaker 2: They may rotate here against Via Real. Even if they rotate,

1033
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 2: we've seen a lot of the guys that they have,

1034
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 2: from Giselo to Briam Diaz to ar Regular, Like, there's

1035
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 2: still really really good attackers that can go up against

1036
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 2: this v Real defense that is still close to dead

1037
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 2: last and pretty much every single defensive category. And it

1038
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 2: should be a very back and forth transitional type matches

1039
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 2: with two teams that want to play in transitions. So

1040
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 2: projected right on four goals for this one, so like

1041
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:24,440
Speaker 2: over three and a half plus one oh five.

1042
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:29,839
Speaker 5: Okay, that does it for the Euro Section. Good work there.

1043
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 4: Let's move on to the underdog parlay BJ and we're

1044
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 4: going to change things up for this week because obviously

1045
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:41,480
Speaker 4: Anthony is not on the podcast anymore. But You've come

1046
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:43,319
Speaker 4: up with a pretty good idea. I think to make

1047
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:46,080
Speaker 4: sure we can continue with the three legs this week

1048
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 4: and beyond.

1049
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean you hit the other a head.

1050
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:51,800
Speaker 2: We want to keep this going. This is one of

1051
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 2: This is our favorite segment of the show, right and

1052
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 2: I think for you listeners, it's the favorite segment of

1053
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:57,799
Speaker 2: the show even though hasn't won yet this season. But

1054
00:53:57,840 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 2: if it does win this week, you may be in luck.

1055
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 2: Because what we're gonna do is we're going to leave

1056
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:06,320
Speaker 2: the third leg up to you, the listener, to decide.

1057
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:08,799
Speaker 2: So how is this going to work? Is me and

1058
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:12,799
Speaker 2: Michael are going to provide three or four under other

1059
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 2: underdogs that we liked beyond the ones that we say

1060
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:21,719
Speaker 2: already on the show. And what I will do is

1061
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:25,959
Speaker 2: when I tweet out the show link on Thursday morning

1062
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 2: at nine am Eastern time, I will include a poll

1063
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 2: underneath in the tweet. Underneath the link, go ahead and

1064
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 2: vote on who you would like and how we're gonna

1065
00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 2: turn this into something where your ears might perk up.

1066
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 2: There's gonna be a cash prize potentially, so whatever the

1067
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:48,239
Speaker 2: three leg parlay ends up being, I will place a

1068
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:50,920
Speaker 2: twenty dollars bet on it at bet three sixty five,

1069
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 2: so we get two goal insurance. And if that parlay wins,

1070
00:54:57,040 --> 00:55:01,279
Speaker 2: if you retweet then the tweet of the show link

1071
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:03,760
Speaker 2: at nine am Eastern time, not the poll, the actual

1072
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 2: link of the show, you will be entered and I

1073
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 2: will pick one person at random if the parlay wins,

1074
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 2: and I'll give you a third of the winnings of

1075
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:15,240
Speaker 2: the parlay. So I'm gonna say that one more time

1076
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 2: of what you need to do, because I think everybody's

1077
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:18,000
Speaker 2: here just parked up that.

1078
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 3: I offered a cash prize.

1079
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 2: To be entered. You just need to retweet at nine

1080
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 2: am Eastern time when I tweet out the show with

1081
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:27,360
Speaker 2: the link to the podcast. If you retweet that, you

1082
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:31,319
Speaker 2: will be entered into this not really a contest, but

1083
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 2: into the parlay. And if it wins, I will select

1084
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 2: one person at random and you'll get a third of

1085
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 2: the winnings. So if this parlay ends up being over

1086
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:42,400
Speaker 2: one hundred to one, I mean, let's say it's at

1087
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:44,359
Speaker 2: one hundred to one or a twenty dollars bet, you'd

1088
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:46,240
Speaker 2: be walking away with six hundred and sixty seven dollars

1089
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:49,279
Speaker 2: if it wins. So just make sure you vote, and

1090
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 2: I'll say one thing. If you don't like any of

1091
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:55,319
Speaker 2: the underdogs that we select here, just comment below the

1092
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,280
Speaker 2: poll and if more people comment on a certain underdog

1093
00:55:58,320 --> 00:56:00,080
Speaker 2: than what we voted in the poll, then we'll use that.

1094
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:02,840
Speaker 2: But it's gonna be up to you listeners. Now for

1095
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 2: the third underdog.

1096
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:10,000
Speaker 4: Okay, so I'll go first with mine. I started to

1097
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 4: show off with it. I think Everton is absolutely worth

1098
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:15,359
Speaker 4: a bet here. I'm sorry to do it to you BJ,

1099
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:18,280
Speaker 4: but at fifteen to one, this is just a severe

1100
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 4: case of a must win tax. Everden, for a mid

1101
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 4: table side, are one of the They may be the

1102
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:27,239
Speaker 4: hardest mid table side to beat. They are an incredibly

1103
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 4: good defensive side. They're very dogged, great on set pieces,

1104
00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:33,760
Speaker 4: great at defending set pieces. They've got a great center

1105
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:36,320
Speaker 4: back pairing. They're gonna make you earn every inch on

1106
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 4: the field through the middle. They've got a great goalkeeper,

1107
00:56:39,520 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 4: Dominic Calvert Lewins found his form up top like this is.

1108
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 4: This is not a team that should be fifteen to

1109
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:50,400
Speaker 4: one on Sunday. I know that Arsenal are playing for

1110
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:52,360
Speaker 4: the title, but I think that's why we're seeing this

1111
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 4: price this high.

1112
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:54,880
Speaker 5: So we're gonna.

1113
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 4: Start off with a banger, so if you want to,

1114
00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 4: as be just said, the contest, it's gonna end up

1115
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 4: being a whopper here.

1116
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 5: So that's what we.

1117
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:06,520
Speaker 4: Want though, right, we want to fifteen to one and

1118
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:10,920
Speaker 4: then my submission for the for the b just got

1119
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 4: a couple of Then my submission for the other one

1120
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 4: for the fan vote would beat Born with taking on Chelsea, which.

1121
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 2: Is plus four fifty for me. Brentford plus two ten

1122
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 2: at home against Newcastle. As we've already spoken about before, Uh,

1123
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:30,840
Speaker 2: the Newcastle defense has been better recently, but the performance

1124
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 2: against United, even though it wasn't high from an expected

1125
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:36,880
Speaker 2: goal standpoint, was pretty shambolic. They're a bad transition team.

1126
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:40,560
Speaker 2: They're a team that doesn't do well defending set pieces,

1127
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 2: which is something Brentford obviously thrives at. And Brentford is

1128
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 2: not going to get in this transitional back and forth

1129
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 2: battle with Newcastle like United did. They're going to play

1130
00:57:49,040 --> 00:57:52,440
Speaker 2: a very very solid defensive block and counter attack from deep,

1131
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 2: which is going to be pretty successful here against Newcastle

1132
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 2: who has to win to keep their European spot. So

1133
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:03,400
Speaker 2: brent for plus two ten and the other submissions for

1134
00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 2: you the listener, I had, uh, not what I want

1135
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 2: to do, but one that's kind of necessary. Salernitana plus

1136
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:15,000
Speaker 2: three eighty at home against Verona. Michael Salaryitana has taken

1137
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 2: four points in twenty twenty four. They haven't won a

1138
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 2: match in twenty twenty four. Their last match win came

1139
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 2: on December thirtieth. Do you know who that was against?

1140
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 5: I think you're gonna tell me. As a team they're

1141
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 5: playing this weekend Verona.

1142
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 2: Verona then won nothing on the road. It was a

1143
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 2: pretty even match. Even though Salarnitana has already been relegated,

1144
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 2: they haven't quit. They've scored first in their last two

1145
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 2: matches against Atlanta and Juventus. They've played a couple teams

1146
00:58:41,080 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 2: pretty even by expected goals, so it hasn't been as

1147
00:58:45,040 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 2: bad as maybe we think it maybe most people think

1148
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:52,400
Speaker 2: it is. And Verona still a very very bad offense,

1149
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:57,120
Speaker 2: very good defense. But I mean this price opened Verona

1150
00:58:57,480 --> 00:59:00,040
Speaker 2: plus one plus one ten another up to like I

1151
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 2: just won fifty. It's because they need to win to

1152
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:05,560
Speaker 2: stay off for relegation. So Salarnyitana plus three eighty and

1153
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:07,640
Speaker 2: then I already spoke about it. West Brom plus three

1154
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:11,040
Speaker 2: seventy five against Southampton. So those are your three that

1155
00:59:11,080 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 2: you can vote on. Bournemouth plus four fifty, Salarnyitana plus

1156
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:18,400
Speaker 2: three eighty, West Brom plus three seventy five. If there's

1157
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 2: another underdog you want, comment below again. If we have

1158
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:23,600
Speaker 2: more comments than votes, we'll go with that underdog and

1159
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:26,200
Speaker 2: I'll tweet out the graphic on Friday. I should also

1160
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 2: mention voting will close Friday at nine am Eastern time,

1161
00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 2: so full.

1162
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 3: Twenty four hours.

1163
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 5: Wonderful. Okay.

1164
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 4: That brings us to our favorite premiere, or I should

1165
00:59:34,720 --> 00:59:36,440
Speaker 4: say our best bets, because there's a difference between a

1166
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 4: favorite bet and our best bet. My favorite bet this

1167
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,480
Speaker 4: weekend is the nil nil in Wolves, but it's certainly

1168
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:43,040
Speaker 4: not the best bet that I could come up with

1169
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 4: on the board. For me, my best bet is West

1170
00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 4: hamp to score first against Manchester City at plus four sixty.

1171
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 4: We've seen this before with teams and title races, where

1172
00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 4: they will come out a little tight, maybe a little rigid,

1173
00:59:56,720 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 4: a little mental gaff, a brain fart, however you want

1174
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 4: to put it. I expect west Ham to be full

1175
01:00:02,360 --> 01:00:05,600
Speaker 4: throttle here. We know that they're danger on set pieces.

1176
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 4: The issues with West Ham are defensive rather than attacking

1177
01:00:09,080 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 4: this season. They have the pieces to do something and

1178
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 4: with so much at state for City needing a win

1179
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 4: to share themselves with the title, I think that there's

1180
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 4: a decent chance that west Ham just gets completely overlooked here.

1181
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:23,640
Speaker 4: All the correlated markets will have value and one of them,

1182
01:00:23,680 --> 01:00:25,720
Speaker 4: my favorite is them to get on the board at

1183
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:27,760
Speaker 4: a good number plus four to sixty, west Ham to

1184
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 4: score first.

1185
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 2: And I like Arsenal Everton under three and a half

1186
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:33,800
Speaker 2: at minus one ten if you look at this match,

1187
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:36,440
Speaker 2: but it's not really good for either offense. You know

1188
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,080
Speaker 2: Arsenal recently now they've gone on this run in and

1189
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 2: the pressure has been on with the title. Once they

1190
01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 2: get ahead in matches, they've been trying to control them

1191
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 2: out of possession. They've been seeding a lot of possession

1192
01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:47,960
Speaker 2: to other teams. You look at how they played on

1193
01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 2: Sunday against Manchester United. They didn't allow them to get

1194
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 2: in transition breaks. They just sat in a defensive block,

1195
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:55,760
Speaker 2: dared them to break them down. And the same can

1196
01:00:55,840 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 2: apply here to how they play against Everton, and Everton

1197
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 2: usually beats teams by being more physical, winning duels in

1198
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 2: the middle of the pitch beating them out wide in transition.

1199
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:08,240
Speaker 2: Arsenal since the middle of the season is winning sixty

1200
01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:10,960
Speaker 2: percent of second balls and they're very very good at

1201
01:01:11,000 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 2: winning aerial duals as well, So it's not really that

1202
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 2: great of a matchup here for Everton. You also get

1203
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 2: these two teams, Everton and Arsenal, two of the teams

1204
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 2: that have relied the most on scoring off set pieces

1205
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:24,760
Speaker 2: this season. Both of them are top five in terms

1206
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 2: of defending set pieces, so that's not great. And then

1207
01:01:27,560 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 2: you look at all the struggles that Arsenal's had against

1208
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 2: low blocks from open play. Well, Everton plays one of

1209
01:01:32,440 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 2: the best defensive blocks in the Mayor League. They've only

1210
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 2: conceded the second fewest big scoring chances, behind only Arsenal.

1211
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 2: So I think this total is at least.

1212
01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 3: Half a goal way too high.

1213
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 2: Because it is the final match of the season and finally,

1214
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:47,200
Speaker 2: goal difference no longer matters. Arsenal just needs to win.

1215
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 2: So if I know Mickel Arteta like I think I do,

1216
01:01:50,680 --> 01:01:52,920
Speaker 2: once Arsenal gos ahead, they're not going to try to

1217
01:01:52,960 --> 01:01:54,680
Speaker 2: run up the score. They're going to try to just

1218
01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 2: get this one out, maybe one nil or two nil.

1219
01:01:57,400 --> 01:01:59,240
Speaker 2: Like we've seen recently with a couple of matches, especially

1220
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:01,640
Speaker 2: the one against United It on Sunday, so under three

1221
01:02:01,680 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 2: and a half in Arsenal Everton at minus one ten

1222
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:03,760
Speaker 2: for me.

1223
01:02:04,160 --> 01:02:07,240
Speaker 4: Okay, that does it For our final Premier League episode

1224
01:02:07,400 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 4: of the season. We will be back previewing the f

1225
01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:14,160
Speaker 4: A Cup Final, Champions League Final, Europea League, et cetera

1226
01:02:14,920 --> 01:02:18,960
Speaker 4: in a few days and then full blown into Euros

1227
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 4: we'll do tournament preview everything. Yeah, just we'll make sure

1228
01:02:23,320 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 4: you all covered Copa America stuff as well. So busy

1229
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 4: summer for us on the soccer front, and we're only

1230
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 4: what three months away from the next Premier League season,

1231
01:02:32,560 --> 01:02:37,160
Speaker 4: so yep, thank you for listening. Best of luck this

1232
01:02:37,200 --> 01:02:41,200
Speaker 4: weekend to all our city fans, to all our Arsenal fans.

1233
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:45,440
Speaker 4: Hopefully everybody has a has a good sweat on Sunday morning.

1234
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:47,160
Speaker 4: For BJ I'm Michael for.

1235
01:02:47,120 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 5: A producer Noah and our sponsor's bet three six five.

1236
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 4: Best up with all your bets this weekend.

1237
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:02,440
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1238
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1239
01:03:05,280 --> 01:03:08,360
Speaker 2: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred. Gambler