1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 2: This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction 3 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 2: and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 2: the world. 5 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 3: In the next twenty minutes. On this program, we need 6 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 3: to discuss two things. The future of Chairman Paw One 7 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 3: the easing bias at the Federal Reserve. Two on the 8 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 3: future of Chairman pow staying one as a governor of 9 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve. He was asked why this is what 10 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 3: he had to say. 11 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 2: My concern is really about the series of legal attacks 12 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: on the FED. These attacks are battering the institution and 13 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 2: putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, 14 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 2: which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking 15 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 2: into consideration political factors. 16 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 3: The Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell on independence. I think 17 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 3: FED independence is at risk. So what about the easing 18 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 3: buss Let's talk about monetary policy. A question coming into 19 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 3: this decision is whether this reserve would move to a 20 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 3: more symmetrical reaction function. That's the juket. This is a 21 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 3: plane speak. Isn't just as likely they'll hike as they'll cut. 22 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 3: They didn't do it this time around, but there was 23 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 3: some descent. This vote was eight to four. Four descents 24 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 3: haven't seen that since the nineteen nineties. Of those four 25 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 3: to three wanted to get rid of that easing bus. 26 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 3: This is what the chairman had to say on that issue. 27 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 2: You know a number of people on the committee who 28 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 2: either could support that language change, changing to a more 29 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: neutral stance so that a hike is as likely as 30 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 2: a cut. That number has increased over the inter meeting period, 31 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 2: and it's easy to see why we had the discussion. 32 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 2: The majority are still on the page of not feeling 33 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 2: the need to move to that level, and that's where 34 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 2: I am. 35 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 4: I get it though. 36 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 2: You know at a certain point you would move, and 37 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 2: that that conceivingly could come as soon as the next meeting. 38 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 3: They're getting closer, but they're not there yet. So much 39 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,559 Speaker 3: to learn apparently over the next thirty to sixty days. 40 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 5: I thought that was the most market moving aspect of 41 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 5: the news conference, the idea that it wasn't just the 42 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 5: three dissenters who are to shift to a more neutral 43 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 5: kind of positioning symmetric kind of positioning, but that it 44 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 5: was a bigger group that just didn't feel like there 45 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 5: was a need to move right now, because ultimately, why 46 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 5: move now, and so much can change. Nonetheless, this goes 47 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 5: on for as long as people are might be thinking 48 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 5: based on the oil prices in the future. This is 49 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 5: something that clearly will come back on the table. 50 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 6: I like the way on the Bloomberg Professional Service we 51 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 6: have a way to see the president's tweets quickly. I 52 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 6: am waiting to see a president and tweet wheeler. Do 53 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 6: we get it by the time the clock turns around? 54 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,239 Speaker 6: Or do we get it by metas earnings here in 55 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 6: X number of mini. 56 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 3: Things have softened somewhat around this institution just a little bit. 57 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 3: We heard from the Treasury Secretary scope person who said 58 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 3: it's understandable if this fed remains on hold for some time. 59 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:44,519 Speaker 3: But the last thing we had from the President was 60 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 3: something like this, if the chairman doesn't leave on time, 61 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 3: I'll fire it now. 62 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 4: What is on time actually mean? 63 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,119 Speaker 3: Because he can stay on as the Board of governors, 64 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 3: he can stay on that board until twenty twenty eight. 65 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 4: Is that on time? Or is the president looking for 66 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 4: something else? 67 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 5: Are we entering a new standoff? We're dealing with a 68 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 5: standoff of the Middle East. We were dealing with the 69 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 5: staring contest between Tom Tillis and Donald Trump, and now 70 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 5: might be dealing with President Trump versus j Powell the governor, 71 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 5: to see who blinks first, who's going to drop the 72 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 5: legal cases, who's going to step away? And this could 73 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 5: potentially get pretty tense, especially if the bar is that 74 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 5: much higher. Right now for FEED chair Jay Powell. 75 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 3: My mccame is in that news conference. He'll join us 76 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 3: in just a moment. I want to start with Jimpanco 77 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 3: of Pianco Research. Jim, Welcome to the program, buddy. I 78 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 3: think FED independence is at risk. The chairman's words, I'll 79 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 3: continue to serve as a governor for a period of time. 80 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 3: Recent events have left me no choice but to stay. 81 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: Your reaction, please, I think it's one of the most 82 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: disappointing things that he's done during his chairmanship. That is 83 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: a political decision. The decision was made to push the 84 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: investigation of the building to the Inspector General. The Inspector 85 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: General finds some malfeasans or wrongdoing with the building, they'll 86 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: have a criminal referral. That is appropriate. He seems to 87 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: be saying that has billions of dollars in building construction 88 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: and no one's allowed to ask any questions about it, 89 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: and he's going to stand in the doorway and disrupt 90 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: the FED as long as they're going to look into 91 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: this building. I think that that is a big, big disappointment. 92 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: I would have expected more from him, to be very honest, 93 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: and I'm a guy that liked him. I'm a guy 94 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: that would have reappointed him, and I think this is 95 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: a big disappointment that I've seen from him. 96 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 5: Jim, do you think that it has longer term ramifications 97 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 5: for the institution based in the fact that he is 98 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 5: saying he does think that this is an independent institution, 99 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 5: a committee, but does want to avoid some of the 100 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 5: attacks that he says are battering the institution. 101 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 1: Marin or Eccles is the only other FED chairman that 102 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 1: stayed on in the late nineteen forties, and his memoirs 103 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: say that he stayed on because he saw, with Bretton 104 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 1: Woods and with the World Bank and the IMF in 105 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: the post World War two period, change was coming and 106 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: he wanted to marshal the world through those changes. It 107 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 1: seems like what Chairman Paul is saying is we're eighty 108 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: years later and changes coming. I want to stand in 109 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: the doorway and prevent those changes. He said he wants 110 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: to see a more traditional move back to the FED. 111 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: He wants to see the FED institution remain the way 112 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: it is and not evolve. Now, as far as independence goes, 113 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: I think we've solved the independence pro problem with the 114 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: vote today eight four. We have twelve independent voters. The 115 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: Chairman is one of those voters. That is how you're 116 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: going to get a truly independent FED. The Chairman cannot 117 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: dictate the policy like he has for the last forty years. 118 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,160 Speaker 1: He needs six other people to agree with him in 119 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: order to get that policy across. What's going to happen 120 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: if we continue to have these descents. I'll remind you 121 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 1: last year the Bank of England had a four to 122 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: four to one vote. If we get to a six 123 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: to six vote with this FED we're already at eight four. 124 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 1: That gives Chairman Powell all the power to decide what 125 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 1: the policy's going to be. Even though he said he's 126 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 1: not going to give any speeches and he's going to 127 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: remain in the background, or is he saying that he 128 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: will just do whatever to Chairman wash tells him to 129 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: do and that's the way he's going to vote and 130 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: he's not going to vote independently, So it's a big 131 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: problem that he needs to define and try to explain, 132 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: and he didn't did this press conference, Jim. 133 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 6: I look at this simplistically. I got oil at one 134 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 6: nineteen sixty one in this announcement that I saw on 135 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 6: the Bloomberg that we're leaving an aircraft carrier from the 136 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 6: Middle East, the gerald Ford, with five four hundred sailors. 137 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 6: I believe it as is coming home exhausted. Is Jerome Powell, 138 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 6: simplistically in the same way, just staying to block a 139 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 6: Trump appoint period. 140 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 1: I hope he's not, you know, and I hope that 141 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: you know he's he's trying to be fair minded in 142 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:44,159 Speaker 1: his decision, and I disagree with the decision, and we 143 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 1: can have disagreements in it, and that is it being 144 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: as political as that that he doesn't want Trump to 145 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: have another appointee. And by the way, we'll get the 146 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 1: Leasa Cook decision by June when the court adjourns, and 147 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: if they do allow him to fire Lisa Cook for cause, 148 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: I would assume probably the same day he'll fire j 149 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: Paul and we'll have to and then he'll get two 150 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: votes or he'll get two open seats to be able 151 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: to replace Now. Of course the court could rule otherwise, 152 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: but that's coming as well too. But I hope it's 153 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: not that. I hope that it is more that he 154 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: has a view about the institution not changing in a 155 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: world where I think we're changing and it needs to evolve, 156 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: and he's preventing that. 157 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 4: Jim, stay close. I've got Miama Cay standing by it. 158 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: Just hopped out of the news conference and one of 159 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 3: his reactions to one of this as well, Mike here 160 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 3: in the room. Have you got a different perspective on things? 161 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 7: Yes, I think I do. I was listening to what 162 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 7: Jim said. I don't think Jay Paul is staying because 163 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 7: he's trying to stand in the way of progress at 164 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 7: the FED. I think Jay Powell is staying because he 165 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 7: doesn't trust the Department of Justice. He noted at the 166 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 7: top that the Justice Department had said that they were 167 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 7: dropping the probe, but he referenced back to Janine Piro's 168 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 7: comment about we could file another criminal complaint and he 169 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 7: doesn't know, oh what the Justice Department will do, whether 170 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 7: or not there would be validity in what the Justice 171 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 7: Department might do, So he wants to make sure that 172 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 7: that is the case, and he will at least probably 173 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 7: stay through the Inspector General's report. It is also possible 174 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 7: he would stay on beyond that in order, as you did, 175 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 7: mention that in order to deny the President the possibility 176 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 7: of another seat if he thinks what the President wants 177 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 7: to do is take political control of the FED. 178 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 3: Said Jim, I want to give you a chance to 179 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 3: respond to that. If anything, the Chairman's been consistent, he 180 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 3: said a bah. He said this needs to be rapped 181 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 3: up with transparency and finality, and based on the comments 182 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 3: we've had, according to the Chairman, he thinks the full 183 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 3: and short of that bound. 184 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: Jim, Yeah, I think he thinks that. Senator Tillis does 185 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: not think that. That's why he voted today to advance 186 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: his nomination. And I agree with Mike that he does 187 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: not trust the Justice Department. But it's not his call. 188 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 1: It's the Justice Department that the American public elected through 189 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: the election of Donald Trump. And if he doesn't like it, 190 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 1: he's going to then stay as a disruptive force to 191 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: the FED to prevent them from making any kind of 192 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:12,959 Speaker 1: changes or referrals or even looking in Remember this is 193 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: all about the building cost and why it's been taken 194 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: several years and his run so expensive, and it seems 195 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: like he's saying we're not allowed to ask. 196 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 3: I've got another disruptive force to talk about, Jim a 197 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 3: labor to jump in one twenty on Brent just breached 198 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 3: that level moments ago, high on the session by eight percent. 199 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 3: Let's just take a step back. The chairman's future is 200 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,719 Speaker 3: one part of the discussion. These market moves are something else. 201 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,679 Speaker 3: At the moment, Brent at one twenty just sit on 202 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 3: that yields high at the front end of the curve, 203 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 3: retesting the highs of the last two months or so, 204 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 3: and equities bring up the equity screen. At the moment, 205 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 3: equity is this afternoon, in the face of these moves 206 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 3: and fixed income, these moves in commodities doing almost nothing. 207 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 3: Bramo hardly moved, not even phased ahead of these earnings 208 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 3: later this so afternoon. 209 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 5: And this was what the Fed was talking about. Right, 210 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 5: we have the NASDAK that actually up four tens ofiven 211 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 5: percent ahead of those earnings. As we look to the 212 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 5: strength that fetcher J. Powell was talking about it as 213 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 5: last press conference. But this is where it becomes tricky. 214 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 5: At what point do those higher oil prices that might 215 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 5: be leaving big tech unphased become an inflationary pressure that 216 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 5: can be withstand what we could be withstood simply because 217 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 5: there is enough momentum in this economy. 218 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 4: Jim, let's get to the price section. 219 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 3: Not so interested in should should an interested in market consequences. 220 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 3: Here's a Federal Reserve debates in dropping its easy bass 221 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 3: pressure building the commodity market rice repricing yields higher. What 222 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 3: are the consequences, Jim, I think. 223 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: The consequences are huge because if you look at the 224 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: way that oil is trading. You're right that the June 225 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: contract went over one twenty a few minutes ago, and 226 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 1: that's the highest it's been since June of twenty two. 227 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: What about the long term? Okay, let's look at the 228 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 1: December contract. The December contract is making new all time 229 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,839 Speaker 1: highs too, and it's saying to us, at least if 230 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: you want to take it at phase value, that the 231 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: price of oil is going to stay elevated at least 232 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 1: through the end of the year. As Chairman Paul said, 233 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: we already have he said, three and a half percent 234 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: on PCE inflation. That's their measure, and if it's all 235 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: driven by energy, it's going to stay there right now, 236 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: and it's going to be problematic for the Fed to 237 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: even talk about an easing with that level of inflation. 238 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: It's not going to disappear and go away unless there's 239 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 1: some resolution in the war. And the problem is the 240 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: market doesn't see the resolution in the war. That's why 241 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 1: both the June all the way to the December contract 242 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: continues to move higher. 243 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 3: Ay, Jim, going to see you. I appreciate your opinion, 244 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 3: Jim of Biancore Research. Mike always go to see you, buddy. 245 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 3: Great work in the news conference. Mike mckaye down in Washington, 246 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 3: d C. If you're just joining us, welcome to the program. 247 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 3: We have set out for quiet an afternoon now in 248 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:47,960 Speaker 3: the next sixty minutes so sun, we should hear from 249 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 3: four of the biggest companies on the planet, Microsoft, METSA Alphabet, Amazon. 250 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 3: Before we get there, some big market moves to talk 251 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 3: about eight consecutive days of high crude prices Brent crude 252 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 3: through one twenty. Just briefly, we've taken out the heighs 253 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 3: of the year closing basis. If we close at these 254 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,839 Speaker 3: levels one nineteen ninety five. Look at that WCI comfortably 255 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 3: into triple digits. This move in the bond market off 256 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 3: the back of it yields high at the front end 257 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 3: of the curve, up by ten basis points. Not just 258 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,199 Speaker 3: about oil, also about this feeder reserve. If you missed it, 259 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 3: here's a summary an eight to four vote. Haven't seen 260 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 3: that level of descent since nineteen ninety two. Of that four, 261 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 3: three hawkish descents a conversation about dropping the easing bias. 262 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 3: They haven't got enough people on site just to do 263 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 3: that just yet, but we're losing support for that easing 264 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 3: bias at this feeder reserve. 265 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 5: And potentially if this conflict in the Middle East doesn't 266 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 5: get resolved, then all of a sudden, you will have 267 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 5: a consensus to move to asymmetric risk. We have now 268 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 5: priced out a rate cut for twenty twenty six and 269 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 5: the Fed Fund's futures. At what point do we start 270 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 5: repricing in hikes, because ultimately, this is an economy that 271 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 5: can would stand oil prices at this level, rates at 272 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 5: this level, and that was the ward that we heard 273 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 5: from the Federal Reserve. 274 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 6: Repricing here is hard because it's a war. Somebody mentioned 275 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 6: there it's a war. We forget we're in a war. 276 00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 6: And within that, I don't know what the unknown known 277 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 6: is tomorrow or out to June seventeenth. Nobody knows. We're 278 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 6: just going to take in the data and take in 279 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,079 Speaker 6: the war news. And what I'm waiting for John is 280 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 6: to take in the next marginal. 281 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 3: President Trump tweet the S and P five hundred down 282 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 3: by a tenth of one percent. If you looked at that, 283 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 3: it's a snoozy afternoon and nothing happened at this Federo's 284 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 3: Eerve meeting. That's just not the case. Jeffrey Rosenberg of 285 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 3: Black Rock joined us now for more. Jeff, what's the 286 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 3: bill case in the face of what's brewing elsewhere? 287 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 8: Well, you know, you highlighted it well between trying to 288 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 8: disconnect what's going on between oil prices and the committee 289 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,959 Speaker 8: meeting today and what we heard, and you know, I 290 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 8: want to highlight, you know, the thing that I found 291 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:44,319 Speaker 8: most interesting about Powell's comments were explaining the I think 292 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 8: the second main point and takeaway at the meeting, which 293 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 8: is this this theme of a divided committee that comes 294 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 8: out of the eight to four vote, and he framed 295 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 8: it as a natural consequence of the conflict in the 296 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 8: FEDS objectives between growth and inflation, which is the one 297 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 8: hundred and twenty oil you know? Is that is that you 298 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 8: know point? And he got asked the question about pass 299 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 8: through and this is I think what the markets are 300 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 8: really struggling with is he basically made the point it's 301 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 8: all about the time of which the Straits of Hormuz 302 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 8: remains closed, and no one knows what that will look like. 303 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 8: So Jim just talked about the forward curve. Uh, you know, 304 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 8: December contract making its new highs, but it's it's significantly 305 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 8: lower than the front end of the curve. So there's 306 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 8: an expectation here that at some point that's opening up. 307 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 8: We don't know what that is, and I think Divided 308 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 8: Committee is likely to be the continuation because of this 309 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 8: point that Powell highlighted that when you're faced with the 310 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 8: conflict of the dual objectives, that people are going to 311 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 8: see that in different ways. Some are going to be 312 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 8: arguing for the growth impact, some are going to be 313 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 8: arguing for the inflation impact, and that might be the 314 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 8: more expected outcome as opposed to what we've seen and 315 00:14:56,640 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 8: the historical comparisons of this being you know, very unusual, 316 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 8: will maybe get used to that being a little bit 317 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 8: more usual. 318 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 5: Jeff, it seems like the conflict of the Middle East 319 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 5: isn't necessarily that close to wrapping up. Maybe it is, 320 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 5: and we just all are getting mixed signals. Do you 321 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 5: think this market needs to price in a greater chance 322 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 5: of a rate hike as the next move by the 323 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 5: Federal Reserve? 324 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 8: Well, it's already done that. And to this discussion about 325 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 8: the easing bias and the language, you know, the market 326 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 8: already took the easing bias out. It did that at 327 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 8: the onset of the oil price impact from the Iran war. 328 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 8: So I don't think that as a catalyst for sort 329 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 8: of the next move that's made. Mostly, you know, the 330 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 8: Fed is a deliberate a body getting the right number 331 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 8: of people willing. You heard Powell talk about that they're 332 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 8: slow to move that bias. The market is not, and 333 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 8: it's moved the bias to easing out of the market pricing. 334 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 8: So I don't think that's really the market event. The 335 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 8: market event is really the uncertain unknown question that he 336 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 8: was asked, what's the pass through from headline inflation to 337 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 8: core inflation? You heard Worsh talk about it in terms 338 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 8: of trimmed mean and not looking at core PCE as 339 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 8: a measure. That's a very particular way of looking at 340 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 8: the potential for pass through. Will he get and move 341 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 8: the rest of the committee onto that view. If so, 342 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 8: that's a very dubvish implication, and you bring the bias 343 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 8: back in. But as Powell highlighted, we really just don't know. 344 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 8: So you're going to have to see whether or not 345 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 8: those pass through of headline into core shows up, whether 346 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 8: Worsh is more dubbish interpretation shows up, and whether you 347 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 8: can push the committee towards his direction, and that will 348 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 8: bring the bias back into market pricing. But right now 349 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 8: we're pricing. 350 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, Jeff, I. 351 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 6: Got eight questions in time for one, and it's just 352 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,239 Speaker 6: simple for our listeners interviewers across this nation and worldwide. 353 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 6: What is the best tool to use in the bond 354 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 6: market to study the potential dynamics? Don't you know the 355 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 6: benchmark tenure or that, or is there a unique Rosenberg spread? 356 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 6: It makes sense. What is the efficacious way to study 357 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 6: the pulse is seen in fixed income? 358 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 8: Yeah? You know, Tom, the kind of historical rule of 359 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 8: thomb is if you want to keep it simple, it's 360 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 8: about the five year maturity point on the treasury curve. 361 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 8: That's kind of impacts the best estimations of where you're 362 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 8: looking for current and forward looking FED expectations, and that 363 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 8: kind of is your benchmark for looking at you can 364 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 8: look a little bit shorter. Two year is going to 365 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 8: be the more near term expectations. I think that's a 366 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 8: really good metric. And then on the inflation side, remember inflation. 367 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 8: You know, headline inflation is going to impact shorter maturities. 368 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 8: You want to look a little bit further out, you 369 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 8: can look at the slope of the curve five year, 370 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 8: five year forward measures on break even inflation is better 371 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 8: when looking at longer term market expectations of the impact 372 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 8: on inflation, and so far, you know that's been relatively benign, 373 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 8: and so that's kind of supporting you know, Powells comments 374 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 8: in terms of market longer term expectations not being unduly impacted. 375 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 8: If you started to see that change, that's going to 376 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:14,479 Speaker 8: be a major signal for FED policy pivoting more towards 377 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 8: the inflation concern. If you start to see that show 378 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:18,640 Speaker 8: up in that metri Jeff. 379 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 3: Last question from US last time we had to yo 380 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,439 Speaker 3: it at these levels close to them was the end 381 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 3: of March, and every person we spoke to and fixed 382 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 3: income on Wall Street had a very favorable interpretation of 383 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 3: these moves. They said we were creating value and they 384 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,639 Speaker 3: wanted to buy it. Jeff, do you think we're creating 385 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 3: value this afternoon and do you want to buy. 386 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 1: Well? 387 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 8: I think the move in the front end is creating 388 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 8: some value. You know, you're seeing a big curve flattening again. 389 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 8: A lot of it is conditional on that pass through 390 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 8: of inflation, but stepping out of the curve into the 391 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 8: front end, we're having Warsh come in. He's already signaled 392 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 8: that he wants to look through that and take a 393 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 8: more dubvish interpretation, be able to bring the committee along 394 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 8: with them. You know, when you start pricing hikes in 395 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 8: it depends on the oil move and it's persistent. But 396 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 8: I think there's a little bit of value there. A 397 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 8: completely different answer really to the opposite side. When you 398 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 8: look in the long end of the curve, the long 399 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 8: end needs to build term premium. We got a savings 400 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 8: glut that's turning into a savings deficit, particularly as we 401 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 8: need to reshure, rebuild, reallocate in global savings around the 402 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 8: implications of this Iran war, all at the same time 403 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 8: as fiscal deficits are increasing the demand for that borrowing. 404 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 8: I think there you see a different story, and that's 405 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 8: a that's less of a buying opportunity and more of 406 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 8: something we're going to need to see increase in terms 407 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 8: of the term premium to bring investors back into the 408 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:44,680 Speaker 8: long end of the curve. 409 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 3: He jeff got to see you a great answer, Jeffrey 410 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 3: Rosenberg there of Black Crock breaking down its views, not 411 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 3: because I think it's the right answer, just it's an 412 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 3: important answer to a very difficult question. Right now to 413 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 3: ya yields high by ten basis points tens full forty one. 414 00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 5: If you think that right now there's a great opportunity 415 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 5: to buy and the tenure, give us a call, because 416 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 5: right now everyone who we ask seems to say go 417 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 5: right to the front end and saying that's where I'm 418 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 5: going to get some yeals. But right now on the 419 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 5: long end, things might be changing, and ultimately we just 420 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 5: can't get ahead of it. And that seems to be 421 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 5: a theme again and again. 422 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 6: Bob just emails in he's on his way to Step 423 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 6: one in Miami's here, and Bob's looking at and he's going. 424 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 6: The price of guests went up ten cents yesterday, twenty 425 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 6: two cents this week. People are needing out at restaurants. 426 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 6: That's got a lot more to do with us than 427 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 6: any of the. 428 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 3: Things that flight got more expensive. This afternoon is not over. 429 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 3: Big tech coming up after the close, coming up tomorrow 430 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 3: on Bluebacks, tav On Bloembock surveillance. We'll kick things off 431 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 3: with Jutying and Manuell. I've ever Call, will catch up 432 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 3: with Mike Wilson, I've Morgan Stanley, and a whole lot 433 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 3: more from New York City this afternoon. 434 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 4: Good afternoon,