WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: Jobs Preview, Poland Election, Trump Tariffs 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:08.320 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:13.040 This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:15.440 the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.200 anchors all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:20.480 a look ahead to the November jobs report here in 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:23.960 the US how that may impact FED policy moving forward. 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:26.800 Plus a look at where oil prices may be heading 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:30.720 in an upcoming Trump administration. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.120 I'm Caroline Hepge here in London, where we're shining a 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:37.159 spotlight on Poland ahead of the country's presidential election in 0:00:37.200 --> 0:00:38.160 twenty twenty five. 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:41.600 I'm Derek Prisner, looking at President elect Trump's announcement of 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:43.360 new tariffs on Chinese goods. 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:47.479 That's all It's truly had on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:52.040 Bloomberg eleven Trio, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:57.360 Bloomberg ninety two nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius 0:00:57.520 --> 0:01:00.920 XM one twenty one, and around the world Bloomberg Radio, 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:03.080 dot Com and the Bloomberg Business Act. 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:10.400 The Day to You, I'm Tom Busby. We begin today's 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:14.199 program with the November Jobs Report, Non farm payroll numbers 0:01:14.200 --> 0:01:17.759 out this coming Friday, eight thirty am Wall Street Time 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:20.560 for more on what to expect and what that data 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:23.720 could mean for the FED, we're joined by Michael McKee, 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:28.720 Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent. Well, Michael, let's begin 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:32.840 with a look back back at October's dismal jobs report 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:36.640 and the reasons behind that. Before we look at November. 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:41.920 Well, twelve thousand jobs according to the Bureau of Labor 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:45.800 Statistics during the month of November, and that was largely 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:50.760 influenced by what we saw in terms of the potential 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:55.560 port strike, the Boeing strike, and the hurricanes that hit 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:59.640 during the month, and so largely dismissed by most people. 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:02.840 What we'll have to see is whether we get the 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:06.320 rebound that one might expect, and if so, how strong 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.959 that is, because at the same time that we saw 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:12.680 this extraordinarily low number, we've been in the middle of 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:16.040 a decline in the number of jobs created each month, 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:19.760 simply because the economy is sort of plateauing at this point. 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:24.440 Strong growth, but most of the job gains have been made, 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:26.240 but it. 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:28.960 Is shaping up to be a very different number for 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:31.520 job creation in November. I mean we have had some 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:35.080 good news some mixed news. Jobless claims, initial claims low, 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.520 but continuing claims a sign of long term unemployment. That's 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:40.560 in a two year high, So a little troublesome there. 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:45.080 Yeah, we'll have to watch that. It isn't clear why 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:47.800 that is. It would suggest that people are having a 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:50.480 harder time finding a job, but that may also be 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:54.079 hurricane related. The people who initially filed claims have done so, 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:56.160 so we don't see the initial claims keep going up. 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:58.880 But the people who lost their jobs because their jobs 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:02.680 sort of disappeared, they have had a hard time finding 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:06.160 jobs because so many jobs disappeared in those hurricane areas. 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:08.480 We're just going to have to wait and see. 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:12.320 Now, the unemployment rate still just four point one percent. 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:15.959 You know, you talked about strike settles and that's good news. 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:19.240 But we've also had retailers gearing up for the big holidays, right. 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:23.320 Travel still strong coming into Thanksgiving, consumer spending still up, 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:27.240 So there is good news pointing to November's numbers. 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:29.600 I was traveling at the beginning of the month and 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:32.320 a lot of people were traveling the our beginning of 0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:35.080 the week last week and a lot of people traveling 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:38.880 airports and everything kind of crowded, and that just suggests 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:41.520 that people still have money and they're still willing to 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:46.640 go out and spend it on things that are not necessities. 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:49.760 And so if that's the case, we're likely to see 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:55.720 continued strength in growth and that will continue to incent 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:59.640 companies who need people to hire people. The hard part 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.160 is when you get to a point in the economy now, 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:05.440 is projecting what growth is going to be like and 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:09.120 whether you're going to need more people. It seems fairly 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:12.760 obvious that we're going to need more help part time 0:04:12.800 --> 0:04:15.960 help for the Christmas season, and we're going to probably 0:04:16.000 --> 0:04:20.120 need more help in the leisure and hospitality space. So 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:22.799 at least those two areas are someplace we can look 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:24.480 for some kind of gains. 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:29.360 So the big questions and what right now is Bloomberg 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:32.880 expecting to see in the November numbers and what'll it 0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:35.160 all mean when the Fed meets again for the last 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.239 time this year December seventeenth and eighteenth. 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:41.240 Well, the forecast is for around two hundred thousand, which 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:43.599 would be a significant snap back and stronger than we 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:47.279 had seen in previous months. The general feeling is that 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.599 the risk is even to the upside on that. The 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:56.400 question is does the data between now and Friday continue 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:59.040 to support that. The ism numbers we're going to get, 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.960 the jobless aims numbers, we're going to get it, and 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:05.919 the ADP numbers, if those are also strong, we'll maybe 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:10.720 see that even revised up. The biggest question is at 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:14.359 this point what happens with unemployment. The forecast is for 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:17.599 a four point two percent rate, up from four point one. 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:20.760 The FED is watching that more closely because that isn't 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:24.240 affected by the same things that the headline numbers are. 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:28.560 The strikes and the hurricanes don't really impact that, and 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:33.000 so if that goes up, then it pushes the FED 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:36.120 to maybe stay on hold. Right now, the general feeling 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:39.520 is that the FED knows what's happening with inflation, and 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:42.159 they have a pretty good idea of what's happening with jobs, 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.719 and if that's confirmed by the payrolls report on Friday, 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:49.320 then they will probably go ahead and cut once more. 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:52.280 And then, of course, with the new administration coming in, 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:54.240 all bets are off for twenty twenty five. 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:58.360 Yeah, I'll say well. Also, Powell has said in the 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:02.120 last couple of weeks he's in no rush it's all 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:05.039 as always data driven, but he's in no rush to 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:08.320 cut again right away. So kind of playing it both 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:10.880 ways or is it really just data dependent. 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:13.719 It's data dependent, but he is playing it both ways. 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:17.719 What he wants is the option to have the markets 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:22.480 price in a given at the moment until the FED 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:24.760 sees the data that they have to work with. If 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:29.080 the markets were to price in a cut and believe 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:31.280 that they are going to continue that and you get 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.560 this whip saw this volatility in the markets that the 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:38.000 Fed doesn't want to see. They would prefer that everybody 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:41.359 stays sort of half and half until all the data 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:43.839 are in, until they're ready to look at it and 0:06:43.880 --> 0:06:44.560 make a decision. 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:47.479 Well, the November jobs report from the Bureau of Labor 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:50.400 Statistics out this coming Friday, our thanks to Michael McKee, 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:54.480 Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent. We move next to 0:06:54.520 --> 0:06:58.400 the energy market and what plans from the incoming Trump administration. 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:02.080 Lower demand out of China and continued geopolitical tensions may 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:04.640 need for oil prices in the New Yar term and 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:07.440 in the year ahead. It's a lot to consider and 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:11.120 for more. We're joined by Alex Longley Bloomberg Oil trading 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:14.400 reporter Alex thank you for joining us. I want to 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:18.080 start with you where oil prices are right now? 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:21.160 Well, and it's a good question in the context of 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:24.000 when people normally hear about oil prices right and the pandemic. 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:26.280 In twenty twenty, the main thing you'd have heard, if 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:27.800 you're not in a day to day follower of the 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:30.320 oil market, is negative prices. Then in twenty twenty two, 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:32.240 the next thing you hear is one hundred and forty 0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:34.040 dollars a barrel. You've gone from being paid to take 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:35.880 oil to pay one hundred and forty dollars a barrel. 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:38.840 The last few months have been a remarkably stable period. 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:40.640 In fact, most of twenty twenty four has been a 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:43.920 remarkably stable period for oil prices. We find ourselves now 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.520 sort of somewhere in the kind of seventy to seventy 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:49.679 five region, and that's where oil prices have been trading 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:52.720 pretty much since the middle of October. And if you 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:56.120 exclude the period where we sort of heightened volatility with 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.520 Iran firing missiles it Israel. Actually oil has been trading 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.240 kind of in there's seventy to seventy five or sixty 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:05.120 five to seventy range, depending on what benchmark you look at. 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:08.560 Since pretty much the end of September, that's a remarkably 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:10.720 stable period for what is one of the most volatile 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:12.120 commodity markets in the world. 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:16.200 And here in the US we are certainly reaping the benefits. 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:19.320 Gasoline averaging three zero five a gallon a year ago 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:22.840 it was three twenty six a gallon. So this stability 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.560 is exactly what everyone here was hoping to see. 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:28.520 Yes, exactly. I think we've already heard that sort of 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:32.200 Prior to the holiday period, the Department for Transportation was 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:35.120 expecting a record travel season. I think one of the 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.240 interesting things more broadly about demand is that in the 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:41.160 oil market, it has generally surprised to the upside. People 0:08:41.240 --> 0:08:44.520 have been consuming more oil than generally was expected to 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:45.040 be the case. 0:08:45.080 --> 0:08:45.320 Now. 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:49.600 Obviously, so far this year, global economic slowdown has hindered 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.240 demand growth to a degree. But the point is oil 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:55.680 demand is still growing, and as much as we invest 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.240 in the energy transition, the fact of the matter is 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.040 in various parts of the oil market, demand is here 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:03.839 to stay. Another thing that's hugely important when we look 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:06.439 at the price of gasoline price at the pump, particularly 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.520 in the US, but actually across the world is there's 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:12.200 been a transformation in the number of plants that are 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:16.000 converting crude into refined products, and that includes gasoline and diesel, 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:19.640 the fuels that keep the world ticking along. And that 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:22.360 twenty twenty two period I mentioned before, when prices were 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:26.439 exceptionally high, the world didn't have enough oil refineries really 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:28.480 to produce the fuel that needed and that's why you 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:32.040 saw crazy high gasoline prices, crazy high diesel and heating 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:34.480 oil prices. And what we've seen over the last twelve 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.320 to eighteen months is a series of giant new plants 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:39.400 come online in other parts of the world, and that 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:42.680 means lower prices for everyone because there's more ability to 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:44.600 produce gasoline in the global system. 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:48.559 And we've also seen more countries come back online like Libya, 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:52.520 you know, i Ran, I know has had you know, 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:55.840 pretty much a back and forth there. But also you 0:09:55.880 --> 0:10:00.320 know with the Opek plus countries, you know they've increased production, 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.120 they've rolled back production, so a lot of volatility there, 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:05.440 but bottom line, there's no demand destruction. 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:10.480 We are flush with oil, yes, exactly. And this comes 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:14.240 against the backdrop of the OPEC plus countries already kind 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:17.199 of having for several months delayed their production increases that 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.280 they were planning because they want to bring barrels back 0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:22.079 to the market for precisely the reasons you say, lots 0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:24.760 of countries outside the grouping have been lifting their output. 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:27.200 That includes the US, where production is that are close 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:31.959 to a record, but also a handful of others Canada, Brazil, Guyana, 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:34.120 and lots of these countries have been able to lift 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:38.160 output because oil prices have been so relatively high for 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:42.280 several years now that's incentivized higher volumes of production. You 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.280 reference to Iran. That's another country where, particularly under the 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.000 Biden administration, we've seen a perhaps looser approach to the 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:51.000 enforcement of sanctions and that's meant more Iranian oil flowing 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:53.480 to the markets. That's kept the markets well supplied. You 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:56.400 could make a similar argument about Venezuela over recent years 0:10:56.400 --> 0:11:00.160 as well. That combination of what we would call non 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:03.040 OPEC supplier supply from outside the groups that are the 0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:05.560 countries that are signed up to the output cuts is 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:09.000 partly what has helped depress prices relatively in recent years. 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:11.720 And then the final thing is within OPEC itself, yes, 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:16.240 that producer group has been reducing output, but not everyone 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:17.920 has been at the same pace. And there are a 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:20.560 handful of cheetahs within that producer group which have been 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:23.800 promising to return their cuts to where they should be. 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.319 But that sort of holistic picture is why there's so 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.120 much supply on global markets at the moment. 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:32.000 And OPEK has another decision later in December right on 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:34.680 whether to gradually increase output. 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:38.320 Again, yes, exactly, we're expecting that decision. We'll see what 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:42.240 comes of that. They have already begun, we've reported discussing 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:46.839 another plan to extend to the delay to resuming output increases. 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.760 I think what the market has been looking for in 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.960 advance of that decision has been any suggestion that those 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:55.959 curbs will be delayed for several months. And this comes 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:58.520 back to a view from the International Energy Agency, which 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:01.040 pretty much everyone in the market is talking about, which 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:02.960 is that twenty twenty five is going to be a 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:05.640 story of lots of oil on the market. And again 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.360 that's not because demand growth is particularly slow, but it's 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:11.240 because supply growth is so high. Again, we come back 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:14.640 to Brazil, Guyana, the US, the IEA say lots of 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:16.360 barrels are going to come onto the market, and that's 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.959 giving Opek a slight headache. I think the real question 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:21.760 for next year is how big that oversupply will be. 0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:24.400 Okay, well, a lot to look forward to, boy our 0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:28.240 thanks to Alex Longley, Bloomberg Oil Trading Reporter, and coming 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:30.600 up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we'll shine a spotlight 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:34.280 on Poland ahead of that country's presidential election next year. 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:49.079 I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.280 day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:54.280 stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby 0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:56.880 in New York. Up later in our program, we'll look 0:12:56.920 --> 0:12:59.640 at how Donald Trump is already making good on campaign 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.439 val to slap punishing tariffs on goods coming into the US. 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:07.520 But first a closer look at Poland. Its thriving IT 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.120 sector has made it quote the new Silicon Valley of 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:14.679 Eastern Europe, but it's grappling with questions about its political future. 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:17.880 Its ruling party has chosen Warsaw's mayor to run for 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:21.200 president the next year's election, an ally to Prime Minister 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:24.360 Donald Tusk and his current legislative agenda, and it comes 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:28.319 as Poland prepares to take over the EU's rotating presidency. 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:31.360 So what lies ahead for more, Let's go to London 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:35.360 and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline hepgar Tom. 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.760 Prime Minister Donald Tusk has begun his government's bid to 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:44.040 secure the Polish presidency in Ernest. Rafal Schaskowsky is a 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:47.760 former member of the European Parliament and has been mayor 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:51.600 of Warsaw since twenty eighteen. He's won the approval of 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:56.240 seventy five percent of the centrist coalition the Civic Platform 0:13:56.559 --> 0:14:00.920 to become the party's presidential nominee, beating out opponent Foreign 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:05.920 Minister Radasla Sikorski in the process. Now, winning the presidency 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:11.439 with responsibility for foreign affairs is crucially important for Tusk's administration, 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.560 which has vowed to restore the rule of law and 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:20.440 bring Poland back towards the European mainstream. Incumbent President Andre 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.160 Duda is an ally of the former nationalist Law and 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:28.480 Justice administration and has clashed with Tusk in his first 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:32.520 year in office. The Law and Justice Party have nominated 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:37.360 Karl Novrodsky, the president of the Institute of National Remembrance, 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.680 a head of the ballot, which is expected in May 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:45.520 next year. Current President Duda's second and final term ends 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:50.240 in August, but he has cultivated close ties with President 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:54.000 eelect Donald Trump and visited him in New York in April. 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:58.680 Trump's return to the White House raises many considerations for 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:02.920 European leaders, particularly when it comes to ongoing support for 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.320 Ukraine in the conflict, where the Russia, Poland and NATO 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:10.760 member is a staunch back of neighboring Ukraine. So what 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:14.520 lies ahead for Poland as the country seeks to determine 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:18.880 its next political chapter, and will the country's decision bring 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:23.000 it closer or further away from an alliance with Trump's 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:27.480 United States is something I've been discussing with Bloomberg's Warsaw 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:31.160 Bureau chief Pyotr Skolimowski Hi. 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:33.880 Indeed, so the role of the president in Poland is 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:38.520 very often or has been very often underestimated. It's generally 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.520 believed it's just ceremonial. But as we've seen over the 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:45.440 past few years, and especially since Donald Tusk and his 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:50.360 party took over after winning the election last year, we've 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.800 seen that the president plays a very important role. He 0:15:52.840 --> 0:16:00.120 can veto legislation, he can appoint judges. He also sits 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:04.960 on or represents Poland at NATO meetings in relations with 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:08.080 the UN, for example. So what we've seen over the 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:12.720 past year is that whenever Donald Tusk tried to introduce 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:16.080 his legislative agenda, which was basically to reverse some of 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:20.920 the changes in the judiciary that previous government has has introduced, 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.120 the current the current president, who is very close to 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:29.680 the opposition, wielded his veto power and that was the 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:35.240 issue where could not really introduce his legislative agenda. And 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.880 obviously he's now trying to get someone in place who 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:41.160 could help him win. 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:45.600 That case, and that might be Warsaw's mayor, who himself 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:51.320 was a European politician previously in the EU. How lightly 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:55.840 is it that Raphael Chalskowski is going to win? Does 0:16:55.840 --> 0:17:00.640 the ruling party normally manage to retain the presidency? 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:06.280 Normally they do. Obviously, it all depends when, when, when 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:10.439 the when the the elections are scheduled. But in this 0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:16.840 case Rafl Saskowski is already an experienced campaigner. We have 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.679 to remember that a few years ago he also he 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:22.760 already ran for the president and he lost very marginally 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:26.600 to the incumbent Andre Duda, the current president, who comes 0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:32.960 from the Nationalist launch Justice opposition. Shaskowski is very experienced. Obviously, 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:36.040 some say he may not be as experienced as necessary 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:40.840 when it comes to security policy, defense policy or international relations. 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:42.520 We have to remember that he's a mayor of war 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:45.800 So and he's been running the city for for a 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:48.320 very long time now. But at the same time he's 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:52.679 also a previous you minister into his government in the 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:57.400 previous one. He also is used to be a lawmaker 0:17:57.400 --> 0:17:59.760 at the European Parliament, so he definitely has a lot 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:03.240 of experience in this respect and the polls show that 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.960 he is definitely in a popposition to to actually make 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:07.879 it this time around. 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:11.919 In terms of Donald Tusk and his policy agenda, he 0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:16.640 wants to bring Poland closer to the European mainstream. Obviously 0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:20.920 the Law and Justice opposition would disagree with that. What 0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:23.720 is what is the thrust of what Tusk wants to do? 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:27.880 So over the last eight years, when when the Law 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:31.760 and Justice was in power, Poland was in constant conflict 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.760 with the EU. The main the main accusations they were 0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:37.920 leveled at Poland. That's time was that it's trying, it's 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:42.240 it's it's started. We are seeing certain democratic backsliding, meaning 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.320 there are changes in the judiciary that are being introduced 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:48.960 by the by the previous ruling party that that sort 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:53.560 of remove certain checks and balances on on how the 0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:58.080 nation is or how the administration is run. Now, Tusca's 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:02.439 promised to to reverse those changes to make Poland again 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:08.920 the place where rolla law is being respected, and obviously 0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:10.520 he needs the president to do that. I mean that 0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:13.560 the changes have have gone so far under the previous 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:17.440 administration that he really needs the president to sign off 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:20.320 on reversal of those changes. There are also issues that 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.840 he has also promised. These are, for example, changes in 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:27.960 Poland's very strict abortion laws. He also wants his government, 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:31.360 his coalition that he runs, to make changes there and 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:34.440 to loosen up those laws. And the current president, who 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:36.720 is very conservative, is definitely against that. 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.399 Yeah, and that caused a lot of protests at the 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:46.840 time in Poland. In terms of Poland's economy, why I 0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:50.440 mentioned this is becoming an attractive destination for investors. Why 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:52.800 is that and what's the economic backdrop to this? 0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:54.240 Yeah? 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:56.639 So, so Polish economy has been growing very very fast, 0:19:57.480 --> 0:20:02.320 and apart from the the period of the pandemic which 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:05.280 hit all the economies across the world, it's been expanding 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:08.000 very very quickly. We're seeing a lot of investment coming 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.200 in from from across the board, but it also has 0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:16.199 a very well established and home grown sec it sector 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:19.879 here and it also attracted a lot of investment from 0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:24.600 abroad from big corporations, it corporations that set up their 0:20:24.840 --> 0:20:28.760 backroom operations. This has been a sector that's been growing 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:31.119 here in Poland. Poland is also has been a very 0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:36.960 attractive destination when it comes to batteries. It also attracted 0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:40.080 investor investors from for example, South Korea from the US. 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:44.520 It's also building a nuclear power plant quite or starting 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:47.680 to build it. It has a lot of spending when 0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:50.640 it comes to defense that are being planned. It's now 0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:54.439 the biggest spender as part of as a share of 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:59.600 GDP on defense, which is also again another place where 0:20:59.640 --> 0:21:02.960 the economy could grow and where a lot of the 0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:05.800 destment are coming in for example from South Korea from 0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:11.239 the US. So there's a lot of pentap demanders. The 0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:16.120 society is still catching up with with Western standards, so 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:20.960 it's a very attractive investment, destination and and economy is 0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:22.000 growing very very fast. 0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:26.679 In terms of the EU rotating presidency, what might that 0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:30.080 mean for Poland? I mean, you know, it's only six months, 0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:33.840 but often the country that holds that does get some 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:37.520 sway perhaps over the over the EU policy agenda. What 0:21:37.520 --> 0:21:39.280 do you think Poland might bring to that role. 0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:43.720 Yes, so indeed the country that holds rotating presidency sets 0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:46.200 the agenda or helps to set the agenda. 0:21:45.800 --> 0:21:46.280 For the EU. 0:21:46.560 --> 0:21:50.800 Obviously it's going to be an important element time. At 0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:52.840 this point, we have Hunger, which is which is the 0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:56.520 rotating president of the of the EU, and it hasn't 0:21:56.560 --> 0:21:59.360 gone very well to to to say the least. Now 0:21:59.400 --> 0:22:02.919 Poland wants to change that. It wants to sort of 0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:09.919 present that as an opportunity to showcase it's it's its strength. Obviously, 0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:12.840 it will be a time when President Trump is going 0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:15.399 to come in, so it will need to to build 0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:18.760 relations there. There are certain certain areas where Poland needs 0:22:18.760 --> 0:22:21.640 to wants to focus. He wants Poland wants more focused 0:22:21.640 --> 0:22:23.840 on defense and security, so it wants to make some 0:22:23.920 --> 0:22:28.640 headways in terms of where EU spends more on defense 0:22:28.640 --> 0:22:31.919 and tries to pull more of the resources to to 0:22:31.920 --> 0:22:35.639 to for investments there. It also wants to move ahead 0:22:35.680 --> 0:22:38.960 with with enlargement. So Poland has been a huge supporter 0:22:39.080 --> 0:22:41.639 of Ukraine. And we've already heard with from one of 0:22:41.640 --> 0:22:44.919 the ministers except one of the priorities for our presidency 0:22:44.960 --> 0:22:48.920 is actually to open negotiating chapters with those countries don't 0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:52.399 want to join in, which are Ukraine and Moldova. So 0:22:53.040 --> 0:22:56.600 quite a packed agenda, but you know, sort of hovering 0:22:56.600 --> 0:22:59.720 over all of this is a US presidency of Donald 0:22:59.760 --> 0:23:02.199 Trump and that will be probably a key focus. 0:23:02.640 --> 0:23:05.920 Yeah. Absolutely, And just in terms of thinking about the 0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:11.720 presidential candidate for election next year, there's still a process, 0:23:11.800 --> 0:23:16.280