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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at

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Speaker 2: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak

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Speaker 2: anchors all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program,

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Speaker 2: a look ahead to the November jobs report here in

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Speaker 2: the US how that may impact FED policy moving forward.

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Speaker 2: Plus a look at where oil prices may be heading

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Speaker 2: in an upcoming Trump administration. I'm Tom Busby in New York.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepge here in London, where we're shining a

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Speaker 1: spotlight on Poland ahead of the country's presidential election in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: I'm Derek Prisner, looking at President elect Trump's announcement of

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Speaker 3: new tariffs on Chinese goods.

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Speaker 2: The Day to You, I'm Tom Busby. We begin today's

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Speaker 2: program with the November Jobs Report, Non farm payroll numbers

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Speaker 2: out this coming Friday, eight thirty am Wall Street Time

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Speaker 2: for more on what to expect and what that data

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Speaker 2: could mean for the FED, we're joined by Michael McKee,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent. Well, Michael, let's begin

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Speaker 2: with a look back back at October's dismal jobs report

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Speaker 2: and the reasons behind that. Before we look at November.

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Speaker 5: Well, twelve thousand jobs according to the Bureau of Labor

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Speaker 5: Statistics during the month of November, and that was largely

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Speaker 5: influenced by what we saw in terms of the potential

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Speaker 5: port strike, the Boeing strike, and the hurricanes that hit

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Speaker 5: during the month, and so largely dismissed by most people.

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Speaker 5: What we'll have to see is whether we get the

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Speaker 5: rebound that one might expect, and if so, how strong

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Speaker 5: that is, because at the same time that we saw

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Speaker 5: this extraordinarily low number, we've been in the middle of

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Speaker 5: a decline in the number of jobs created each month,

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Speaker 5: simply because the economy is sort of plateauing at this point.

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Speaker 5: Strong growth, but most of the job gains have been made,

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Speaker 5: but it.

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Speaker 2: Is shaping up to be a very different number for

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Speaker 2: job creation in November. I mean we have had some

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Speaker 2: good news some mixed news. Jobless claims, initial claims low,

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Speaker 2: but continuing claims a sign of long term unemployment. That's

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Speaker 2: in a two year high, So a little troublesome there.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we'll have to watch that. It isn't clear why

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Speaker 5: that is. It would suggest that people are having a

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Speaker 5: harder time finding a job, but that may also be

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Speaker 5: hurricane related. The people who initially filed claims have done so,

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Speaker 5: so we don't see the initial claims keep going up.

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Speaker 5: But the people who lost their jobs because their jobs

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Speaker 5: sort of disappeared, they have had a hard time finding

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Speaker 5: jobs because so many jobs disappeared in those hurricane areas.

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Speaker 5: We're just going to have to wait and see.

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Speaker 2: Now, the unemployment rate still just four point one percent.

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Speaker 2: You know, you talked about strike settles and that's good news.

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Speaker 2: But we've also had retailers gearing up for the big holidays, right.

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Speaker 2: Travel still strong coming into Thanksgiving, consumer spending still up,

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Speaker 2: So there is good news pointing to November's numbers.

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Speaker 5: I was traveling at the beginning of the month and

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Speaker 5: a lot of people were traveling the our beginning of

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Speaker 5: the week last week and a lot of people traveling

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Speaker 5: airports and everything kind of crowded, and that just suggests

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Speaker 5: that people still have money and they're still willing to

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Speaker 5: go out and spend it on things that are not necessities.

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Speaker 5: And so if that's the case, we're likely to see

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Speaker 5: continued strength in growth and that will continue to incent

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Speaker 5: companies who need people to hire people. The hard part

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Speaker 5: is when you get to a point in the economy now,

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Speaker 5: is projecting what growth is going to be like and

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Speaker 5: whether you're going to need more people. It seems fairly

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Speaker 5: obvious that we're going to need more help part time

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Speaker 5: help for the Christmas season, and we're going to probably

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Speaker 5: need more help in the leisure and hospitality space. So

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Speaker 5: at least those two areas are someplace we can look

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Speaker 5: for some kind of gains.

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Speaker 2: So the big questions and what right now is Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: expecting to see in the November numbers and what'll it

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Speaker 2: all mean when the Fed meets again for the last

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Speaker 2: time this year December seventeenth and eighteenth.

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Speaker 5: Well, the forecast is for around two hundred thousand, which

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Speaker 5: would be a significant snap back and stronger than we

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Speaker 5: had seen in previous months. The general feeling is that

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Speaker 5: the risk is even to the upside on that. The

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Speaker 5: question is does the data between now and Friday continue

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Speaker 5: to support that. The ism numbers we're going to get,

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Speaker 5: the jobless aims numbers, we're going to get it, and

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Speaker 5: the ADP numbers, if those are also strong, we'll maybe

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Speaker 5: see that even revised up. The biggest question is at

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Speaker 5: this point what happens with unemployment. The forecast is for

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Speaker 5: a four point two percent rate, up from four point one.

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Speaker 5: The FED is watching that more closely because that isn't

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Speaker 5: affected by the same things that the headline numbers are.

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Speaker 5: The strikes and the hurricanes don't really impact that, and

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Speaker 5: so if that goes up, then it pushes the FED

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Speaker 5: to maybe stay on hold. Right now, the general feeling

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Speaker 5: is that the FED knows what's happening with inflation, and

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Speaker 5: they have a pretty good idea of what's happening with jobs,

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Speaker 5: and if that's confirmed by the payrolls report on Friday,

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Speaker 5: then they will probably go ahead and cut once more.

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Speaker 5: And then, of course, with the new administration coming in,

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Speaker 5: all bets are off for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll say well. Also, Powell has said in the

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Speaker 2: last couple of weeks he's in no rush it's all

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Speaker 2: as always data driven, but he's in no rush to

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Speaker 2: cut again right away. So kind of playing it both

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Speaker 2: ways or is it really just data dependent.

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Speaker 5: It's data dependent, but he is playing it both ways.

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Speaker 5: What he wants is the option to have the markets

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Speaker 5: price in a given at the moment until the FED

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Speaker 5: sees the data that they have to work with. If

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Speaker 5: the markets were to price in a cut and believe

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Speaker 5: that they are going to continue that and you get

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Speaker 5: this whip saw this volatility in the markets that the

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Speaker 5: Fed doesn't want to see. They would prefer that everybody

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Speaker 5: stays sort of half and half until all the data

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Speaker 5: are in, until they're ready to look at it and

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Speaker 5: make a decision.

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Speaker 2: Well, the November jobs report from the Bureau of Labor

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Speaker 2: Statistics out this coming Friday, our thanks to Michael McKee,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent. We move next to

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Speaker 2: the energy market and what plans from the incoming Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: Lower demand out of China and continued geopolitical tensions may

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Speaker 2: need for oil prices in the New Yar term and

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Speaker 2: in the year ahead. It's a lot to consider and

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Speaker 2: for more. We're joined by Alex Longley Bloomberg Oil trading

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Speaker 2: reporter Alex thank you for joining us. I want to

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Speaker 2: start with you where oil prices are right now?

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Speaker 6: Well, and it's a good question in the context of

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Speaker 6: when people normally hear about oil prices right and the pandemic.

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Speaker 6: In twenty twenty, the main thing you'd have heard, if

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Speaker 6: you're not in a day to day follower of the

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Speaker 6: oil market, is negative prices. Then in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 6: the next thing you hear is one hundred and forty

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Speaker 6: dollars a barrel. You've gone from being paid to take

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Speaker 6: oil to pay one hundred and forty dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 6: The last few months have been a remarkably stable period.

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Speaker 6: In fact, most of twenty twenty four has been a

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Speaker 6: remarkably stable period for oil prices. We find ourselves now

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Speaker 6: sort of somewhere in the kind of seventy to seventy

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Speaker 6: five region, and that's where oil prices have been trading

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Speaker 6: pretty much since the middle of October. And if you

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Speaker 6: exclude the period where we sort of heightened volatility with

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Speaker 6: Iran firing missiles it Israel. Actually oil has been trading

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Speaker 6: kind of in there's seventy to seventy five or sixty

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Speaker 6: five to seventy range, depending on what benchmark you look at.

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Speaker 6: Since pretty much the end of September, that's a remarkably

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Speaker 6: stable period for what is one of the most volatile

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Speaker 6: commodity markets in the world.

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Speaker 2: And here in the US we are certainly reaping the benefits.

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Speaker 2: Gasoline averaging three zero five a gallon a year ago

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Speaker 2: it was three twenty six a gallon. So this stability

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Speaker 2: is exactly what everyone here was hoping to see.

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Speaker 6: Yes, exactly. I think we've already heard that sort of

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Speaker 6: Prior to the holiday period, the Department for Transportation was

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Speaker 6: expecting a record travel season. I think one of the

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Speaker 6: interesting things more broadly about demand is that in the

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Speaker 6: oil market, it has generally surprised to the upside. People

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Speaker 6: have been consuming more oil than generally was expected to

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Speaker 6: be the case.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 6: Obviously, so far this year, global economic slowdown has hindered

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Speaker 6: demand growth to a degree. But the point is oil

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Speaker 6: demand is still growing, and as much as we invest

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Speaker 6: in the energy transition, the fact of the matter is

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Speaker 6: in various parts of the oil market, demand is here

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Speaker 6: to stay. Another thing that's hugely important when we look

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Speaker 6: at the price of gasoline price at the pump, particularly

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Speaker 6: in the US, but actually across the world is there's

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Speaker 6: been a transformation in the number of plants that are

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Speaker 6: converting crude into refined products, and that includes gasoline and diesel,

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Speaker 6: the fuels that keep the world ticking along. And that

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty two period I mentioned before, when prices were

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Speaker 6: exceptionally high, the world didn't have enough oil refineries really

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Speaker 6: to produce the fuel that needed and that's why you

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Speaker 6: saw crazy high gasoline prices, crazy high diesel and heating

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Speaker 6: oil prices. And what we've seen over the last twelve

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Speaker 6: to eighteen months is a series of giant new plants

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Speaker 6: come online in other parts of the world, and that

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Speaker 6: means lower prices for everyone because there's more ability to

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Speaker 6: produce gasoline in the global system.

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Speaker 2: And we've also seen more countries come back online like Libya,

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Speaker 2: you know, i Ran, I know has had you know,

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Speaker 2: pretty much a back and forth there. But also you

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Speaker 2: know with the Opek plus countries, you know they've increased production,

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Speaker 2: they've rolled back production, so a lot of volatility there,

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Speaker 2: but bottom line, there's no demand destruction.

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Speaker 6: We are flush with oil, yes, exactly. And this comes

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Speaker 6: against the backdrop of the OPEC plus countries already kind

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Speaker 6: of having for several months delayed their production increases that

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Speaker 6: they were planning because they want to bring barrels back

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Speaker 6: to the market for precisely the reasons you say, lots

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Speaker 6: of countries outside the grouping have been lifting their output.

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Speaker 6: That includes the US, where production is that are close

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Speaker 6: to a record, but also a handful of others Canada, Brazil, Guyana,

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Speaker 6: and lots of these countries have been able to lift

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Speaker 6: output because oil prices have been so relatively high for

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Speaker 6: several years now that's incentivized higher volumes of production. You

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Speaker 6: reference to Iran. That's another country where, particularly under the

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Speaker 6: Biden administration, we've seen a perhaps looser approach to the

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Speaker 6: enforcement of sanctions and that's meant more Iranian oil flowing

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Speaker 6: to the markets. That's kept the markets well supplied. You

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Speaker 6: could make a similar argument about Venezuela over recent years

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Speaker 6: as well. That combination of what we would call non

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Speaker 6: OPEC supplier supply from outside the groups that are the

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Speaker 6: countries that are signed up to the output cuts is

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Speaker 6: partly what has helped depress prices relatively in recent years.

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Speaker 6: And then the final thing is within OPEC itself, yes,

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Speaker 6: that producer group has been reducing output, but not everyone

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Speaker 6: has been at the same pace. And there are a

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Speaker 6: handful of cheetahs within that producer group which have been

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Speaker 6: promising to return their cuts to where they should be.

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Speaker 6: But that sort of holistic picture is why there's so

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Speaker 6: much supply on global markets at the moment.

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Speaker 2: And OPEK has another decision later in December right on

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Speaker 2: whether to gradually increase output.

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Speaker 6: Again, yes, exactly, we're expecting that decision. We'll see what

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Speaker 6: comes of that. They have already begun, we've reported discussing

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Speaker 6: another plan to extend to the delay to resuming output increases.

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Speaker 6: I think what the market has been looking for in

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Speaker 6: advance of that decision has been any suggestion that those

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Speaker 6: curbs will be delayed for several months. And this comes

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Speaker 6: back to a view from the International Energy Agency, which

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Speaker 6: pretty much everyone in the market is talking about, which

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Speaker 6: is that twenty twenty five is going to be a

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Speaker 6: story of lots of oil on the market. And again

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Speaker 6: that's not because demand growth is particularly slow, but it's

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Speaker 6: because supply growth is so high. Again, we come back

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Speaker 6: to Brazil, Guyana, the US, the IEA say lots of

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Speaker 6: barrels are going to come onto the market, and that's

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Speaker 6: giving Opek a slight headache. I think the real question

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Speaker 6: for next year is how big that oversupply will be.

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Speaker 2: Okay, well, a lot to look forward to, boy our

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Speaker 2: thanks to Alex Longley, Bloomberg Oil Trading Reporter, and coming

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Speaker 2: up on Bloomberg day Break weekend, we'll shine a spotlight

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Speaker 2: on Poland ahead of that country's presidential election next year.

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Speaker 2: I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at the top

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Speaker 2: stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby

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Speaker 2: in New York. Up later in our program, we'll look

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Speaker 2: at how Donald Trump is already making good on campaign

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Speaker 2: val to slap punishing tariffs on goods coming into the US.

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Speaker 2: But first a closer look at Poland. Its thriving IT

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Speaker 2: sector has made it quote the new Silicon Valley of

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Speaker 2: Eastern Europe, but it's grappling with questions about its political future.

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Speaker 2: Its ruling party has chosen Warsaw's mayor to run for

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Speaker 2: president the next year's election, an ally to Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Donald Tusk and his current legislative agenda, and it comes

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Speaker 2: as Poland prepares to take over the EU's rotating presidency.

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Speaker 2: So what lies ahead for more, Let's go to London

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Speaker 2: and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline hepgar Tom.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Donald Tusk has begun his government's bid to

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Speaker 1: secure the Polish presidency in Ernest. Rafal Schaskowsky is a

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Speaker 1: former member of the European Parliament and has been mayor

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Speaker 1: of Warsaw since twenty eighteen. He's won the approval of

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent of the centrist coalition the Civic Platform

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Speaker 1: to become the party's presidential nominee, beating out opponent Foreign

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Speaker 1: Minister Radasla Sikorski in the process. Now, winning the presidency

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Speaker 1: with responsibility for foreign affairs is crucially important for Tusk's administration,

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Speaker 1: which has vowed to restore the rule of law and

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Speaker 1: bring Poland back towards the European mainstream. Incumbent President Andre

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Speaker 1: Duda is an ally of the former nationalist Law and

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Speaker 1: Justice administration and has clashed with Tusk in his first

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Speaker 1: year in office. The Law and Justice Party have nominated

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Speaker 1: Karl Novrodsky, the president of the Institute of National Remembrance,

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Speaker 1: a head of the ballot, which is expected in May

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Speaker 1: next year. Current President Duda's second and final term ends

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Speaker 1: in August, but he has cultivated close ties with President

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Speaker 1: eelect Donald Trump and visited him in New York in April.

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Speaker 1: Trump's return to the White House raises many considerations for

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Speaker 1: European leaders, particularly when it comes to ongoing support for

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Speaker 1: Ukraine in the conflict, where the Russia, Poland and NATO

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Speaker 1: member is a staunch back of neighboring Ukraine. So what

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Speaker 1: lies ahead for Poland as the country seeks to determine

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Speaker 1: its next political chapter, and will the country's decision bring

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Speaker 1: it closer or further away from an alliance with Trump's

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Speaker 1: United States is something I've been discussing with Bloomberg's Warsaw

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Speaker 1: Bureau chief Pyotr Skolimowski Hi.

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Speaker 7: Indeed, so the role of the president in Poland is

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Speaker 7: very often or has been very often underestimated. It's generally

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Speaker 7: believed it's just ceremonial. But as we've seen over the

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Speaker 7: past few years, and especially since Donald Tusk and his

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Speaker 7: party took over after winning the election last year, we've

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Speaker 7: seen that the president plays a very important role. He

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Speaker 7: can veto legislation, he can appoint judges. He also sits

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Speaker 7: on or represents Poland at NATO meetings in relations with

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Speaker 7: the UN, for example. So what we've seen over the

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Speaker 7: past year is that whenever Donald Tusk tried to introduce

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Speaker 7: his legislative agenda, which was basically to reverse some of

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Speaker 7: the changes in the judiciary that previous government has has introduced,

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Speaker 7: the current the current president, who is very close to

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Speaker 7: the opposition, wielded his veto power and that was the

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Speaker 7: issue where could not really introduce his legislative agenda. And

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Speaker 7: obviously he's now trying to get someone in place who

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Speaker 7: could help him win.

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Speaker 1: That case, and that might be Warsaw's mayor, who himself

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Speaker 1: was a European politician previously in the EU. How lightly

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Speaker 1: is it that Raphael Chalskowski is going to win? Does

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Speaker 1: the ruling party normally manage to retain the presidency?

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Speaker 7: Normally they do. Obviously, it all depends when, when, when

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Speaker 7: the when the the elections are scheduled. But in this

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Speaker 7: case Rafl Saskowski is already an experienced campaigner. We have

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Speaker 7: to remember that a few years ago he also he

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Speaker 7: already ran for the president and he lost very marginally

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Speaker 7: to the incumbent Andre Duda, the current president, who comes

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Speaker 7: from the Nationalist launch Justice opposition. Shaskowski is very experienced. Obviously,

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Speaker 7: some say he may not be as experienced as necessary

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Speaker 7: when it comes to security policy, defense policy or international relations.

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Speaker 7: We have to remember that he's a mayor of war

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Speaker 7: So and he's been running the city for for a

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Speaker 7: very long time now. But at the same time he's

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Speaker 7: also a previous you minister into his government in the

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Speaker 7: previous one. He also is used to be a lawmaker

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Speaker 7: at the European Parliament, so he definitely has a lot

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Speaker 7: of experience in this respect and the polls show that

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Speaker 7: he is definitely in a popposition to to actually make

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Speaker 7: it this time around.

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Speaker 1: In terms of Donald Tusk and his policy agenda, he

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Speaker 1: wants to bring Poland closer to the European mainstream. Obviously

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Speaker 1: the Law and Justice opposition would disagree with that. What

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Speaker 1: is what is the thrust of what Tusk wants to do?

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Speaker 7: So over the last eight years, when when the Law

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Speaker 7: and Justice was in power, Poland was in constant conflict

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Speaker 7: with the EU. The main the main accusations they were

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Speaker 7: leveled at Poland. That's time was that it's trying, it's

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Speaker 7: it's it's started. We are seeing certain democratic backsliding, meaning

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Speaker 7: there are changes in the judiciary that are being introduced

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Speaker 7: by the by the previous ruling party that that sort

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Speaker 7: of remove certain checks and balances on on how the

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Speaker 7: nation is or how the administration is run. Now, Tusca's

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Speaker 7: promised to to reverse those changes to make Poland again

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Speaker 7: the place where rolla law is being respected, and obviously

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Speaker 7: he needs the president to do that. I mean that

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Speaker 7: the changes have have gone so far under the previous

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Speaker 7: administration that he really needs the president to sign off

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Speaker 7: on reversal of those changes. There are also issues that

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Speaker 7: he has also promised. These are, for example, changes in

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Speaker 7: Poland's very strict abortion laws. He also wants his government,

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Speaker 7: his coalition that he runs, to make changes there and

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Speaker 7: to loosen up those laws. And the current president, who

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Speaker 7: is very conservative, is definitely against that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that caused a lot of protests at the

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Speaker 1: time in Poland. In terms of Poland's economy, why I

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Speaker 1: mentioned this is becoming an attractive destination for investors. Why

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Speaker 1: is that and what's the economic backdrop to this?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: So, so Polish economy has been growing very very fast,

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Speaker 7: and apart from the the period of the pandemic which

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Speaker 7: hit all the economies across the world, it's been expanding

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Speaker 7: very very quickly. We're seeing a lot of investment coming

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Speaker 7: in from from across the board, but it also has

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Speaker 7: a very well established and home grown sec it sector

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Speaker 7: here and it also attracted a lot of investment from

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Speaker 7: abroad from big corporations, it corporations that set up their

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Speaker 7: backroom operations. This has been a sector that's been growing

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Speaker 7: here in Poland. Poland is also has been a very

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Speaker 7: attractive destination when it comes to batteries. It also attracted

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Speaker 7: investor investors from for example, South Korea from the US.

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Speaker 7: It's also building a nuclear power plant quite or starting

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Speaker 7: to build it. It has a lot of spending when

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Speaker 7: it comes to defense that are being planned. It's now

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Speaker 7: the biggest spender as part of as a share of

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Speaker 7: GDP on defense, which is also again another place where

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Speaker 7: the economy could grow and where a lot of the

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Speaker 7: destment are coming in for example from South Korea from

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Speaker 7: the US. So there's a lot of pentap demanders. The

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Speaker 7: society is still catching up with with Western standards, so

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Speaker 7: it's a very attractive investment, destination and and economy is

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Speaker 7: growing very very fast.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the EU rotating presidency, what might that

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Speaker 1: mean for Poland? I mean, you know, it's only six months,

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Speaker 1: but often the country that holds that does get some

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Speaker 1: sway perhaps over the over the EU policy agenda. What

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Speaker 1: do you think Poland might bring to that role.

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Speaker 7: Yes, so indeed the country that holds rotating presidency sets

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Speaker 7: the agenda or helps to set the agenda.

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Speaker 4: For the EU.

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Speaker 7: Obviously it's going to be an important element time. At

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Speaker 7: this point, we have Hunger, which is which is the

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Speaker 7: rotating president of the of the EU, and it hasn't

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Speaker 7: gone very well to to to say the least. Now

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Speaker 7: Poland wants to change that. It wants to sort of

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Speaker 7: present that as an opportunity to showcase it's it's its strength. Obviously,

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Speaker 7: it will be a time when President Trump is going

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Speaker 7: to come in, so it will need to to build

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Speaker 7: relations there. There are certain certain areas where Poland needs

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Speaker 7: to wants to focus. He wants Poland wants more focused

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Speaker 7: on defense and security, so it wants to make some

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Speaker 7: headways in terms of where EU spends more on defense

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Speaker 7: and tries to pull more of the resources to to

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Speaker 7: to for investments there. It also wants to move ahead

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Speaker 7: with with enlargement. So Poland has been a huge supporter

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Speaker 7: of Ukraine. And we've already heard with from one of

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Speaker 7: the ministers except one of the priorities for our presidency

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Speaker 7: is actually to open negotiating chapters with those countries don't

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Speaker 7: want to join in, which are Ukraine and Moldova. So

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Speaker 7: quite a packed agenda, but you know, sort of hovering

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Speaker 7: over all of this is a US presidency of Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump and that will be probably a key focus.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, And just in terms of thinking about the

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Speaker 1: presidential candidate for election next year, there's still a process,

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Speaker 1: isn't there. I mean, Donald Tusk and his Civic coalition

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Speaker 1: have held their primary for their candidate, but then Law

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Speaker 1: and Justice will have a candidate. To just what's the

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Speaker 1: next process in terms of picking the presidential candidate and

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Speaker 1: then the vote and so on.

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Speaker 7: Indeed, so at this point it seems like we over

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Speaker 7: the last weekend the campaign effectively started. So we know

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Speaker 7: the Law the Civic Platforms candidate, and we know the

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Speaker 7: laun Justice candidate. So the laund Justice picked a fairly

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Speaker 7: unknown figure Carolin Navrewski, who's a historian and he was

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Speaker 7: previously or he's currently the head of National Remembrance Institute.

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Speaker 7: And the next steps at this point are obviously campaign

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Speaker 7: will kick off. We're going to see a lot of campaigning,

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Speaker 7: and it's quite a long campaign by published standards, because

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Speaker 7: the elections are not expected until May. And obviously the

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Speaker 7: key question is whether it's going to be resolved in

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Speaker 7: the first round. For that, the main candidate will have

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Speaker 7: to gather at least fifty percent of the vote probably unlikely,

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Speaker 7: but then we're going to go into second round. At

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Speaker 7: this point, these are the two main candidates on Narreotsky,

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Speaker 7: the Lawn Justice candidate and Shoskovsky, but there's also sort

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Speaker 7: of a dark horse of the whole campaign, the current

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Speaker 7: Parliamentary speaker, who is also very keen together the vote.

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Speaker 7: So it's going to get excited definitely.

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Speaker 1: My thanks to Bloomberg's also bureau chief Pyoto Skolimowski. So

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Speaker 1: where Next for Poland will be following that story as

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Speaker 1: the country considers who to pick as its next president

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. I'm Caroline hepget here in London.

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Speaker 1: You can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 1: Europe beginning at six am in London. That's one am

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: Tom, Thanks Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend,

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Speaker 2: we'll look at how campaign threats by Donald Trump over

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Speaker 2: tariffs may soon become a reality. I'm Tom Busby, and

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Speaker 2: this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our

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Speaker 2: global look ahead at the top stories for investors in

437
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 2: the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Donald

438
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 2: Trump's inauguration nearly two months away, but he's already making

439
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 2: good on his vow of tariffs on goods being imported

440
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 2: into the US. We turned out at Doug Prisner, host

441
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: of the Daybreak Asia podcast, for more on what it

442
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 2: could mean for big exporting economies.

443
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 3: Tom. In the past week, President electromp announced a new

444
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 3: additional tarraff of ten percent on Chinese goods, beyond what's

445
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 3: already been put in place, and Trump went on to

446
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 3: say that his administration would impose a new twenty five

447
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 3: percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. Now, many

448
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 3: market watchers have been of the view that any proposed

449
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 3: tariffs were simply a part of a negotiating strategy joining

450
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 3: US now for a closer look as John Leu, Bloomberg

451
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 3: News Executive Editor for Greater China, John joins us from

452
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 3: our studios in Beijing. John, thank you so much. It's

453
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 3: always a pleasure. I appreciate you taking time. The announcement

454
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 3: of these tariffs came very soon after Trump selected Scott

455
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 3: Bessant as US Treasury Secretary. Now Bessent, we know has

456
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 3: called for a gradual approach when it comes to implementation

457
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 3: of trade restrictions, and he also appears to be open

458
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 3: to the process of negotiation. How are these new tariffs

459
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 3: being read right now in Beijing.

460
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 8: We don't have a clear sense at the moment, but

461
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 8: all of the expectations that we've heard from analysis are

462
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:04,120
Speaker 8: the bees will be very careful and measured in how

463
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:08,439
Speaker 8: they respond to this tweet that we've gotten this post

464
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 8: on truth social again. President Trump has yet to take office,

465
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 8: and so he's not able to actually enact these tariffs,

466
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 8: and so I think in the meantime, the Chinese government

467
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 8: will be trying to communicate with his administration, with officials

468
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 8: around him, trying to find what a negotiating room there

469
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 8: may be, and looking not to overreact and make things worse.

470
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 3: One of the things that was a part of that

471
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 3: post Trump's concern about the transmission of illegal drugs out

472
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 3: of China entering the US. He cited fentanyl in particular.

473
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 3: So it looks as though we're in a realm now

474
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 3: that's almost separate from economic issues, right.

475
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 8: It's true. I think tariffs are a tool that President

476
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 8: Trump will use to achieve various differing objectives. Fentanyl has

477
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 8: been an issue that's he's been very focused on. He

478
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 8: was in his first administration. This was an issue that

479
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 8: he brought up with Hijing Ping Again, President Biden has

480
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 8: brought this up with the Chinese government as well, and

481
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 8: so it's not surprising that President and Trump would be

482
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 8: harping on this now that he's getting ready to get

483
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 8: back into office.

484
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 3: So if we look at the idea of negotiation, as

485
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 3: you understand what leverage does China have over the US

486
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 3: at this point.

487
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 8: Well, the trade relationship is one that gives the US

488
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 8: the more powerful hand as it was because China is

489
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 8: by far exporting much much more to the United States

490
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 8: than it is importing from the US. Well, one thing

491
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 8: that we've seen Beijing do is take measures that would

492
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 8: it seems allow the government to put restrictions on the

493
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 8: export of some strategic medals to the US, to Europe,

494
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,719
Speaker 8: to other countries, and so that potentially could be one

495
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 8: lever that Beijing pulls to try to gain some leverage

496
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 8: in that negotiation.

497
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 3: Now, you and I in the past have talked about

498
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 3: the vulnerability of the Chinese economy right now, given how

499
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 3: weak it is, and you just mentioned that the US

500
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: essentially has the upper hand. Should Beijing be particularly concerned

501
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 3: given the set of given circumstances that we're talking about.

502
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 8: I think Beijing is very concerned, given how much reliance

503
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 8: the economy has on exports and how big of an

504
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 8: end market the United States is. I think that Beijing

505
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 8: actually probably has a little bit more time than it

506
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 8: might first seem that's because before President Trump takes office,

507
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 8: I think we're going to see a lot of frontloading

508
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 8: of imports from buyers in the United States trying to

509
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 8: get their goods out of China before those Trump tariffs

510
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 8: come into effect. And so I think in the last

511
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 8: couple of months of twenty twenty four you might see

512
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 8: a real jump in Chinese exports, in turn a lot

513
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 8: of for the economy. In the last quarter.

514
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 3: Is there a way that companies based in China can

515
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 3: create a bit of a work around maybe loopholes that

516
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 3: some of these tariffs inadvertently create. Maybe you do a

517
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 3: percentage of production on the mainland, but then transfer to

518
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 3: a country to finish the production process that may not

519
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 3: be in the crosshairs of some of these tariffs.

520
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 8: So this is what makes the twenty five percent tariff

521
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 8: that President Trump announced on Mexico very interesting, because we

522
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 8: have seen quite a number of Chinese companies setting up

523
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 8: operations in Mexico doing what you said, essentially doing some

524
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 8: last bit of the manufacturing process in Mexico and then

525
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 8: exporting that good into the United States, thereby avoiding the

526
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 8: tariffs that are in place on Chinese products. We've seen

527
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 8: factories set up in Southeast Asia and other countries to

528
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 8: take advantage of the same loophole in the tariffs. And

529
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 8: so it would not surprise me if we see President

530
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 8: Trump going after these difer channels by which Chinese exports

531
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 8: have been getting into the US.

532
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 3: John, you and I have talked about the export controls

533
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 3: imposed by the Bided administration on certain parts of the

534
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 3: Chinese economy, especially where high technology was concerned. When you

535
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 3: look at the choices that the incoming administration has export

536
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: controls versus tariffs, let's say, how do they compare.

537
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 8: I think tariffs are a very blunt instrument because they

538
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,719
Speaker 8: have the ability to impact lots and lots of different

539
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 8: products all at once, especially in the way that President

540
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 8: Trump has talked about imposing them sixty percent tariffs on

541
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 8: all Chinese goods. That would hit everything all at once.

542
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 8: I think the difference the question is how much priority

543
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 8: does President Trump put on denying Chinese access to advanced technology.

544
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 8: That is something that was front and center for the

545
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 8: Biden administration. President Trump during the campaign at talked more

546
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 8: about shrinking the trade deficit that he did talk about

547
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 8: limiting Chinese access to chips, for example. So then when

548
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 8: there is ultimately a negotiation, I think we will find

549
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 8: out then how much value President Trump places on denying

550
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 8: Chinese access to technology.

551
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 3: So obviously this is Trump's second term. He has somewhat

552
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 3: of a relationship already formed with Chinese President Chi Jinping.

553
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 3: Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

554
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 8: I think President Trump feels like those personal relationships are

555
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 8: going to help him get a better deal, and the

556
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 8: way that he speaks about President Xi Jinping in very

557
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 8: respectful terms, talking about their friendship. It would seem that

558
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 8: he wants to have a personal relationship that he can

559
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 8: rely on to try and get a deal through. Whether

560
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 8: or not that actually is fact in case on the ground,

561
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 8: I think we have to wait and find out.

562
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 3: And this is just the beginning of the process. John,

563
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 3: thanks for joining us. John lou There, Bloomberg News Executive

564
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 3: Editor for Greater China, joining us from our studios in Beijing.

565
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 3: We moved next to crypto recently. As I'm sure you're

566
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 3: well aware, Bitcoin reached all time highs as the market

567
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 3: embraced the support for crypto from the incoming Trump administration. Now,

568
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 3: the overall value of the digital asset market has surged

569
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 3: by about a trillion dollars since the election on November fifth.

570
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 3: A closer look now at the crypto landscape with our

571
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 3: guest Peter Chung. He is head of research at Presto Research.

572
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 3: He joins us from Hong Kong. Peter, thanks for making

573
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 3: time to chat with us. Let me get your reaction

574
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 3: to the fundamentals that have been driving the price action

575
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 3: in a bitcoin lately. Give me your assessment on what's

576
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 3: driving this rally?

577
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think this rally has been happening in two parts.

578
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 9: First is you know, right after the election, when bitcoin

579
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 9: was at around sixty seven sixty seven thousand dollars, it

580
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 9: was in reaction to the election result, and it is

581
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 9: part of a broad macro reflation trade, so that raised

582
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 9: the big coeen price from sixty seven thousand to around

583
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 9: ninety thousand. And the second part is also related to Trump,

584
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 9: but more crypto specific. I think the market is becoming

585
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 9: more confident on Trump delivering on his pre crypto campaign

586
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 9: promises based on the chatters around the key cabinet nominations,

587
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 9: so I think they gave the market a confidence that

588
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 9: the Trump has every intention to deliver on his campaign promises.

589
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 3: There seems to be two parts to that story. One

590
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 3: the idea of friendlier regulation, and the other seems to

591
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 3: be this pledge to set up a national bitcoin stockpile.

592
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 3: Which do you think is having a greater influence.

593
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 9: I think more lately it's the idea of bigcoin strategic

594
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 9: reservoir stockpile. I think the recent cabinet nominations and especially

595
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 9: the Scott Besson who just got nominated, I think he

596
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 9: mentioned that everything is on the table with regard to

597
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 9: big coin strategic reserve or stockpile. So the market is

598
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 9: increasingly more confident that it could happen. I think the

599
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 9: Polly market is assigning something like a sixty percent probability

600
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 9: to that.

601
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 4: Yeah.

602
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 3: The other thing that we're hearing is that the transition

603
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 3: team has been talking about the possibility of creating the

604
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 3: first ever White House post dedicated to digital asset policy.

605
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 3: It's kind of stunning. You were talking about everything that's

606
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 3: happened since the election. I think that a lot of

607
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 3: the US ETFs that invest directly in bitcoin have amassed

608
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 3: about more than one hundred billion dollars in assets since

609
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: launching back in January. Is this a trend that you

610
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:40,399
Speaker 3: expect to continue now?

611
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean I think so. I think with the ETF,

612
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 9: it basically has paved a way much easier access for

613
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 9: the institutional investors to come in and make a long

614
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 9: term investment. I mean, big COUNTF has been around for

615
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 9: actually two years, but before it was a futures based ETF,

616
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 9: which isn't really included for the long term investors. With

617
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 9: the introduction of a spot ETF at the beginning of

618
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 9: the year, which is far more efficient in terms of

619
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 9: attracking the underlying asset. You know, that removes a lot

620
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 9: of kind of entry barriers for many of the long

621
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 9: term institutional investors. And now that you know the new

622
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 9: president elect is giving far more credits to this asset

623
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 9: class with his pro crypto policies, I think many of

624
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 9: the long term institutional investors who were a bit heads

625
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 9: stunted prior to this event, I think is more willing

626
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,760
Speaker 9: to take a look at this new emerging asset class.

627
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 3: So pro crypto policies in the US, maybe we understand

628
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 3: that to mean less regulation. Is that what is happening

629
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 3: where you are in the Asia Pacific? I'm thinking, whether

630
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 3: it's Hong Kong or Singapore, are you seeing a move

631
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 3: to deregulate the crypto market A bit?

632
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 9: Yeah, I'm a little heads stunted in using the word

633
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 9: deregulation to describe what's happening right now. It's more I

634
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:05,320
Speaker 9: think the more accurate way of describing is a regulatory clarity,

635
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 9: because I think previously what was happening was it was

636
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 9: more policy driven approached by the SEC through enforcement actions,

637
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 9: and some of them were you know, Ukraargia was not

638
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 9: very lawful and also very vague guidance from the regulatory agency.

639
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 9: Going forward, you know, I think there's going to be

640
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 9: more clear rulemaking by these regulatory bodies in the US,

641
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 9: and I think that's going to have an impact on

642
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 9: the jurisdictions in Asia as well. I think many of

643
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 9: the governments in Asia has been kind of looking at

644
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 9: the US and using that as a benchmark for their

645
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 9: own regulatory framework. And now that the US is more

646
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 9: in a position where they are willing to provide further

647
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 9: regulatory clarity through legislative process as well as, you know,

648
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 9: by having SEC who's more willing to work with the

649
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 9: crypto industry, I think that's going to have an impact

650
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 9: on the many of the governments in this part of

651
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 9: the world.

652
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 3: That's Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, and

653
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 3: I'm Doug Krisner. You can catch us weekdays here for

654
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 3: the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available on Apple, Spotify, or

655
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 3: wherever you get your podcast. Tom.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Doug, and that does it for this edition

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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning

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Speaker 2: at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on

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Speaker 2: markets overseas and the news you need to start your day.

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Speaker 2: I'm Tom Buzzby. Stay with us. Top stories and global

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Speaker 2: business headlines are coming up right now