Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We thought
Speaker 2: we'd start with economics. Sema Shaw is scary good. It
Speaker 2: comes down to London School of Economics or tour of
Speaker 2: duty at the Bank of England with a huge concision
Speaker 2: about what's going on. Seema with principle. Thank you so
Speaker 2: much for joining this morning. Just to cut to the chase,
Speaker 2: Seema to the central banks and particularly the Fed. Do
Speaker 2: they have a cogent plan or are they making it
Speaker 2: up as they go? Hey?
Speaker 3: Tom, that is that is I think such a good question,
Speaker 3: because you know, we read we you know, we pour
Speaker 3: over where the commera is has it moved, what is
Speaker 3: the what is their indication? What are they thinking, how
Speaker 3: they feeling. The truth is is that they are digesting
Speaker 3: the economic data, the incoming stuff, just like we are.
Speaker 3: So I think it's right that they're making up as
Speaker 3: they go along. I mean, of course they have an
Speaker 3: idea that they just have to respond to the data
Speaker 3: because it's just unfolding, and I don't think they have
Speaker 3: a clear idea of working is going to be right.
Speaker 4: In ere England.
Speaker 2: There's been a lot of good research with respect to
Speaker 2: how hard it is to do this business, and that
Speaker 2: as a general statement, the Bank of England and other
Speaker 2: forecasters simply were too pessimistic and that we got wrong
Speaker 2: on a fractional basis. On a tenth of a percentage
Speaker 2: point basis, the growthiness was better than we expected. Do
Speaker 2: you expect that to continue? And that will underestimate growth
Speaker 2: among the three central banks?
Speaker 3: So look, it's possible. I think that, I mean all
Speaker 3: central banks have had actually maybe with the exception of
Speaker 3: the ECB, which seems like it's had a kind of
Speaker 3: a more successful forecast drink ability of the last couple
Speaker 3: of years. But I think it's it should be getting
Speaker 3: a little bit more straightforward, because I think the last
Speaker 3: couple of years have been very difficult for forecasters. And
Speaker 3: I'm going to put myself in there as well, because
Speaker 3: we've been living in you know, typically an list. We
Speaker 3: look at historic data, we use that to give us
Speaker 3: a guide forward. The thing that forecaster has missed in
Speaker 3: the last couple of years is that actually the economy
Speaker 3: has been fundamentally changed by COVID. The normal reaction function,
Speaker 3: interest rates, sensitivity all very very different. And I think
Speaker 3: it's only in the last twelve months or so that
Speaker 3: everyone has started to realize that there is maybe you know,
Speaker 3: doing a comparison to ninety five to two thousand and
Speaker 3: seven just doesn't work as well anymore. But from here
Speaker 3: you're starting to revert kind of normalization should be down
Speaker 3: the line, and that should make forecasting a bit easier.
Speaker 1: So Sama, here in the US, do you think this
Speaker 1: we are in fat today experiencing a soft landing for
Speaker 1: this economy.
Speaker 3: I think we're in the motions of a soft landing
Speaker 3: in the US. So the data is fairly good. Look,
Speaker 3: we're downshifting, which is a positive thing. The last thing
Speaker 3: that we want is actually to see economic data continuing
Speaker 3: to accelerate, because that to me ends up in hard
Speaker 3: landing later down the line. But I think the jury
Speaker 3: is still out. You know, we can't say definitively we've
Speaker 3: got the soft landing, we've achieved it, and we can
Speaker 3: be all victorious. We won't know for sure for a
Speaker 3: couple of months, and I do have worries of how
Speaker 3: the Fed genuinely lands it. I mean, let's say in
Speaker 3: the next few months, they've seen that inflation comes down,
Speaker 3: they cut interest roads, they become they start that path.
Speaker 3: I worry that, actually what's going to happen is that
Speaker 3: if you're a homeowner and you've been waiting on the sidelines,
Speaker 3: eager to move but holding back because mortgage rates are
Speaker 3: so high, you're going to get right back into the market.
Speaker 3: You're going to ease financial conditions, and you're going to
Speaker 3: see the market and the economy taking off. So I
Speaker 3: do worry about, actually, can they do a soft landing?
Speaker 3: Can they achieve it for more than just a three
Speaker 3: to six month period.
Speaker 1: So I guess if you're the Federal Reserve, you saw
Speaker 1: kind of January, February March some inflationary type of data
Speaker 1: come out and then kind of. I guess in April
Speaker 1: reversed a little bit. We got a little bit of
Speaker 1: you know, slowing down of inflation. So if you're the
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve, I guess you can make the argument that
Speaker 1: there's no reason for them to do anything other than wait.
Speaker 3: Exactly. I mean, I think after you've had I mean,
Speaker 3: just basic mass just tells you that if you've had
Speaker 3: three months of an expected inflation data, you at least
Speaker 3: need three months of inline inflation data before you could
Speaker 3: feel any kind of confidence of going back to what
Speaker 3: your initial plan was. But realistically, given the strengthy of
Speaker 3: the inflation data and the continued strength of the economy,
Speaker 3: they probably won a few more months in just three months.
Speaker 3: So and as I said before, I think they aren't
Speaker 3: digesting the economic data to the earnings numbers coming out
Speaker 3: from target certainly very important terms of figuring out where
Speaker 3: the consumer is, because that's obviously going to tie back
Speaker 3: and help them figure out what the next market.
Speaker 2: Is seeman to take the first rate economist ed Yardnny
Speaker 2: over to his market call, which is a bullmarket wrapped
Speaker 2: around his concept of a roaring twenties. To me, roaring twenties,
Speaker 2: either the twentieth century or the twenty first century is
Speaker 2: about a pop in nominal GDP. Do you, at principle
Speaker 2: see a combination of real GDP and inflation that leads
Speaker 2: to an animal spirit that gets to Yard Denny's Roaring twenties.
Speaker 3: So it's an interesting question. I mean, I can see
Speaker 3: normal GDP going up mainly because of AI and tech.
Speaker 3: The Roaring twenties, to me, was about kind of joy
Speaker 3: on the consumer side, just that relief and wanting to
Speaker 3: enjoy life and spend it. And I think we've had
Speaker 3: that for the last couple of years. Whether or not
Speaker 3: that continues, I think is very very different question. And
Speaker 3: inflation is going to play into this so much that
Speaker 3: if you have got her inflation, of course it's based
Speaker 3: in normal GDP. The consumers are already feeding that retrenchment.
Speaker 3: They are struggling with it. I'm not sure that you
Speaker 3: can actually do that initial that direct comparison to the twenties.
Speaker 2: Siema, Thank you so much. Sea Michaw the principal group. Okay,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell a story here. He's gonna love this.
Speaker 2: So I'm at Michael's like, this is like fifteen seventeen
Speaker 2: years ago and then you know they're giving me an
Speaker 2: overpriced saler to my third drink. And it's the art
Speaker 2: directors from my book, and they're like, Tom, we have
Speaker 2: to have an inside sleeve one of your charts, one
Speaker 2: hundred and fourteen charts, which chart would be like when
Speaker 2: you open the book, you see it, you know, inside
Speaker 2: the book charter and that, and I make the decision,
Speaker 2: Like over the olive on the martini, I said, it's
Speaker 2: got to be Malpass, mail Passes at bear Stearns. And
Speaker 2: out of all the people in the book, and these
Speaker 2: are a heavy Bill Dudley, the former Fed president, Bob
Speaker 2: the New York Fed President, Malpass had the most amazing chart,
Speaker 2: which was yen in yen and gold like what Dennis
Speaker 2: Gartman did joining us now the former head of the
Speaker 2: World Bank and iconic at bear Stearns, mister David Milpass
Speaker 2: as well. I just looked at yen in you and
Speaker 2: credit to Dennis Gartman as well. It's the call of
Speaker 2: the decade week yen that we saw, whether it's yen
Speaker 2: and gold or yen in whatever. How did Japan turn
Speaker 2: around this train wreck?
Speaker 5: Hi? Tom, you you can stabilize your currency by having
Speaker 5: a good growth plan. So Japan's got to articulate that
Speaker 5: they're not badly positioned in the world since people are
Speaker 5: trying to diversify away from China, and Japan has a
Speaker 5: lot of the things that people want, and so if
Speaker 5: they can retool the economy, it can work.
Speaker 2: It's an experiment of reflation, which is pretty you know,
Speaker 2: you're in Colorado college and it's like, you know, it's
Speaker 2: not even in the textbooks. Okay, it's an experiment in reflation,
Speaker 2: and they want to pull that back. Can they find
Speaker 2: a middle ground that works versus tripping into deflation again?
Speaker 5: They can, but they need to really think about their
Speaker 5: interest rates. You know, they're pushing up against the one
Speaker 5: percent limit on the tier. It really doesn't doesn't work
Speaker 5: to say you're going to limit your bond yield, but
Speaker 5: you want your currency to stop weakening. So right now
Speaker 5: they're intervening to try to tide that over. That can
Speaker 5: work for a little while, but at some point you
Speaker 5: have to say your interest rates are going to be
Speaker 5: more similar to the rest of the world interest rate Paul.
Speaker 2: Wants to jump in one more question and Yen, what
Speaker 2: is your call on Jeopanese?
Speaker 4: Yen?
Speaker 2: I know you're not doing FX and market economists, but
Speaker 2: do you see a big figure strengthening in Japanese yen
Speaker 2: or more of the same.
Speaker 5: I think it could settle where it is now and
Speaker 5: the world would accept that, And that is a little
Speaker 5: bit what is going on the world move through currency
Speaker 5: realignments and then tries to stabilize after that and reduce
Speaker 5: the harm from that.
Speaker 2: He's tanned and rested. I left exactly hand arrested.
Speaker 5: I know.
Speaker 1: I'm very impressed, David. We've seen come bringing it back
Speaker 1: to the US. Here my entire career, we've been talking
Speaker 1: about annual deficits in the national debt, and now we
Speaker 1: even have Jamie Diamond, David Solomon and gold and Sachs
Speaker 1: talking about the national debt. We've even got that silly
Speaker 1: thing downtown where they tally of the national debt on
Speaker 1: a daily basis.
Speaker 2: Of everybody to see is.
Speaker 1: It time to care about that stuff? Like I'm sixty,
Speaker 1: do I care?
Speaker 5: I think absolutely it is time to care. It was
Speaker 5: one thing when the US economy had a fifty percent
Speaker 5: debt to GDP ratio, you could borrow that and not
Speaker 5: really not really at tax the world's capital or or
Speaker 5: take all of the world's capital. We're the biggest economy,
Speaker 5: and we're borrowing so much that it changes capital flows
Speaker 5: around the world, and I think it's doing it in
Speaker 5: a harmful way. It's the government gets the first DIBs
Speaker 5: on all capital, and then if there's any leftover, big
Speaker 5: corporations get it through the bond market. And if there's
Speaker 5: any leftover, which there isn't really, small businesses can borrow
Speaker 5: to fund their inventory, their working capital, and countries outside
Speaker 5: the US have a little bit of capital at the
Speaker 5: end of the line. That's not a workable system for
Speaker 5: the world. So I think there has to be, both
Speaker 5: in the US and in the world, an urgency that
Speaker 5: the US government stopped growing at spending.
Speaker 1: And this is, I guess a political issue, and again
Speaker 1: in my lifetime, i've never seen the political will to
Speaker 1: address it because it doesn't sound very popular.
Speaker 5: That's right, And I think there's a big gap in
Speaker 5: our law. You know, the debt limit law is misnamed.
Speaker 5: It's really the debt increase law. So every couple of
Speaker 5: years presidents both parties sign a law to increase the
Speaker 5: debt limit. We have to replace it with something workable, strong,
Speaker 5: and it has to hurt Washington, not hurt the people
Speaker 5: of the country when we're when we have too much debt,
Speaker 5: they shut the national parks rather than reducing the staff
Speaker 5: hiring in DC. The swamp gets bigger. World Bank and
Speaker 5: it's a swamp. Now it worked in the swamp. What
Speaker 5: you learn working in the swamp? Uh So in this
Speaker 5: so Washington is a swamp. The parts, all the parts
Speaker 5: work together to make Washington bigger and more profitable. That's
Speaker 5: that's a risk. And the World Bank is part of that.
Speaker 5: It's headquartered and uh and centered in Washington. One thing
Speaker 5: I learned Tom was how hard it is to get
Speaker 5: any other country to do the right thing. It's just
Speaker 5: as hard outside the US as in the US. So
Speaker 5: if you take Nigeria, why is this oil rich country
Speaker 5: so poor? They've got a huge, extreme poverty rate. Why
Speaker 5: is that because the government takes the all the profits
Speaker 5: from oil and wastes it.
Speaker 2: This is such a better Mail pass than the World
Speaker 2: Bank and eight people standing around looking at every where.
Speaker 2: David Mail passes public service to the nation in the
Speaker 2: world with the World Bank and involved in politics as well.
Speaker 2: I'm looking here at the intellectual combine over at Schwab
Speaker 2: and I got SMP tech sectors forward price to sales
Speaker 2: ratio pushing up against this all time. I thank you
Speaker 2: Kevin Gordon for that wisdom. Joining us now, Lizzie Saunders
Speaker 2: is a privilege of working with Kevin Gordon. Lizzy, and
Speaker 2: you do the best charts on you and you're in Timmer,
Speaker 2: do the best charts on Twitter today. What's your most
Speaker 2: important chart that you're putting out for Schwab right now?
Speaker 6: Oh boy, that's a good question. There's so many. I
Speaker 6: think it's labor market data. I think it's it's claims,
Speaker 6: continuing claims, what we see in the monthly jobs report.
Speaker 6: I think that's the needle mover in terms of Fed policy.
Speaker 2: Correlating targets earnings this morning and very great disappointment on revenue.
Speaker 2: Can you coordinate that we correlate that, I should say
Speaker 2: with the labor market.
Speaker 6: Well, you know I don't cover individual stocks, including Target,
Speaker 6: but but you know you have the earnings story this
Speaker 6: quarter at the bottom line level has been better than expected,
Speaker 6: the beat rate, the percent by which companies have beaten.
Speaker 6: But you've got overall revenue growth down around in line
Speaker 6: with where inflation is. So it really has exposed the
Speaker 6: companies that actually do have pricing power and don't have
Speaker 6: pricing power. In addition, revenue beat rate has been below average.
Speaker 6: The percent by which companies have beaten on the top
Speaker 6: line has been below average. So I think this is increasingly,
Speaker 6: yet again a sign of this bifurcation happening, whether it's
Speaker 6: between nominal and real, high end consumer and low end
Speaker 6: consumer services versus the good side, discretionary versus non discretionary.
Speaker 6: And I think there's a reason why the consumer discretionary
Speaker 6: sector has been performing poorly is we're now seeing more
Speaker 6: than just cracks in the facade of the consumer.
Speaker 1: So, Lizane, I guess one of the key issues here
Speaker 1: are the earnings that we have seen and again we're
Speaker 1: going to another big one after the close tonight with Nvidia.
Speaker 1: Have they been strong enough to support this big move
Speaker 1: up and equity valuations that we've seen since October.
Speaker 6: Well, you've got about I think the blended growth rate
Speaker 6: right now is eleven percent. That's inclusive of the companies
Speaker 6: that have yet to report, and that is well better
Speaker 6: than what was expected at the beginning of reporting season.
Speaker 6: That's getting there. But I think earnings do need to
Speaker 6: continue to surprise on the upside because last year's strengthen
Speaker 6: the market was almostultiple expansion because you didn't have much
Speaker 6: in the way of earnings growth. So I think the
Speaker 6: earnings do have to play catchup. Obviously, the report out
Speaker 6: today is incredibly important, not just psychologically, which we know
Speaker 6: it's going to be important psychologically, but if you look
Speaker 6: at the overall tech sector, the earnings growth rate drops
Speaker 6: from about twenty four percent or so twenty three twenty
Speaker 6: four percent down to less than eleven excluding what is
Speaker 6: expected for Nvidia, So it is obviously the poster child.
Speaker 6: But that has been the support for the tech sector,
Speaker 6: which is the overall support for a higher valuation level.
Speaker 6: If you look around the world, one of the mistakes
Speaker 6: that investors make is they do valuation comps country to country,
Speaker 6: region or region without taking into consideration what are the
Speaker 6: underlying drivers of the local economy. And when you have
Speaker 6: more of an information tech based economy, that is support
Speaker 6: of all LSEQL of a higher valuation backdrop. The last
Speaker 6: thing I'd say is inflation as a backdrop for valuations
Speaker 6: is important, maybe not coinstantly. The sweet spot in terms
Speaker 6: of historical valuations being supported at a higher level, has
Speaker 6: been in and around that two percent inflation zone. We're
Speaker 6: obviously not there yet, even if we're directionally heading in
Speaker 6: the right way.
Speaker 1: Lizzie, what are some of the sectors that screen well
Speaker 1: for you and your team here?
Speaker 6: Yeah, So we relaunched Schwab sector views at the beginning
Speaker 6: of the year after a two year hiatus for a
Speaker 6: whole variety of reasons, and we haven't had any change
Speaker 6: in terms of the sectors on which we have outperform
Speaker 6: ratings since the beginning of the year. So it's financials, materials,
Speaker 6: and energy. Obviously a very cyclical bias in terms of
Speaker 6: where our outperforms are. The two underperforms are rates, maybe
Speaker 6: no surprise given the problems in commercial real estate, and
Speaker 6: then as we already touched on a consumat discretionary, the
Speaker 6: rest are in that neutral category.
Speaker 2: Is how do you manage a bull market across the
Speaker 2: kitchen table selling main goal away that didn't work out.
Speaker 2: It was a great chart. I don't know if Young
Speaker 2: Gordon added at Schwab, but you know, it's like we're
Speaker 2: getting back to you know, two thousand and six, ownership
Speaker 2: of equities sixty some percent, whatever the number is it's
Speaker 2: really great, We're all in on this market.
Speaker 4: How do you manage the.
Speaker 2: Emotion of a bull market on a kitchen table over a.
Speaker 6: Beverage pall, You know, Tom, that's an interesting question because
Speaker 6: you know, household exposure to equities is a behavioral measure
Speaker 6: of sentiment, for lack of a better word, But you've
Speaker 6: got attitudinal measures of the sentiment. And one of the
Speaker 6: interesting things that has occurred in the last couple of
Speaker 6: years really in this sort of post COVID bear market cycle,
Speaker 6: is that you get much bigger swings in the attitudinal
Speaker 6: measures of sentiment than you do in the behavioral measures.
Speaker 6: So if you look at just AAII American association of
Speaker 6: individual investors, you can see pretty big moves in a
Speaker 6: very short period of time up in percentage of bulls,
Speaker 6: up in percentage of bears depending on the new year
Speaker 6: term wiggles in the market. But you haven't seen much
Speaker 6: more movement in that invested exposure piece of it. So
Speaker 6: I think that there is some complacency out there as
Speaker 6: measured by the behavioral measures, but those attitudinal measures are
Speaker 6: swinging much more quickly in this environment.
Speaker 2: What do you see at Schwab What is cash doing.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 6: I think for a lot of investors, cash is earning income,
Speaker 6: so you've got income and fixed income. Again, That's why
Speaker 6: I push back on this notion that the six trillion
Speaker 6: dollars in money market funds is just sitting there ripe
Speaker 6: to jump into the equity market. I think that's probably
Speaker 6: fairly sticky, and I think it's great comfort, particularly for
Speaker 6: more conservative or older investors that had to stretch for
Speaker 6: yield and move out the risk spectrum, to not have
Speaker 6: to do that. You've got implications for within the equity side,
Speaker 6: especially areas like dividend stocks that will increase in attractiveness
Speaker 6: depending on what yields are doing. But I think a
Speaker 6: lot of that sort of cash money is fairly sticky,
Speaker 6: but is turning a nice shield at this point.
Speaker 2: Lizien, it was great having your assistant Kevin Gordon on,
Speaker 2: but you know he failed in one.
Speaker 6: Oh he's more than that. But yeah, I love that interview,
Speaker 6: well done.
Speaker 2: We were coming out of it and I said to
Speaker 2: him casually, I said, let's play some Nickelback. He didn't
Speaker 2: know who nickelback was.
Speaker 7: The young law did not know who Nickelback was.
Speaker 6: I taught him. Well, he knows who is, so you
Speaker 6: better know that if.
Speaker 2: It was to cash a paycheck. Lizianne Saunders, working with
Speaker 2: the great Kevin Gordon and Schwab, thank you so much.
Speaker 4: I can't say nothing. Joining us now.
Speaker 2: The worst job in Bloomberg. She has to sort through
Speaker 2: the four hundred polls that are coming up before the
Speaker 2: first Tuesday of November. Lord Davis's deputy US Politics team
Speaker 2: lead and poll talent with Bloomberg News. He pulled out
Speaker 2: Laura and my summary of all the different polls is
Speaker 2: the White House is making very clear they don't believe
Speaker 2: the polls.
Speaker 4: Do I have that right?
Speaker 3: Yes.
Speaker 8: Biden has repeatedly said that he thinks that the polls
Speaker 8: are undercutting him and underselling his popularity. You know, of course,
Speaker 8: polls are a snapshot in time, and you know, do
Speaker 8: have a margin in air and our Navy tool that
Speaker 8: can tell us direction. But several polls, including you know,
Speaker 8: the months that we've done this Bloomberg Morning Console poll
Speaker 8: as well as others, have shown that that Trump consistently
Speaker 8: leads him in the United States.
Speaker 2: Is there a history that supports President Biden that the
Speaker 2: Poles get it wrong and he'll do better than good
Speaker 2: the first Tuesday of November.
Speaker 8: So in twenty twenty two in the midterms, there was
Speaker 8: this big red wave projected and that didn't materialize. So
Speaker 8: that is sort of what Biden is basing his you know,
Speaker 8: his his hanging his hat on there of saying, look,
Speaker 8: you know the polls that we were going to lose before,
Speaker 8: and we didn't end up, you know, kind of with
Speaker 8: quite the shri lacking we were expecting. But you know,
Speaker 8: this is uh, you know, a presidential polling is different.
Speaker 8: It is a little bit more precise than you know,
Speaker 8: congressional polling, where you've got you know, a bunch of
Speaker 8: different polls, you know, across you know, hundreds of races.
Speaker 8: But this is a consistent sign and a worrying sign
Speaker 8: for the Biden campaign that he.
Speaker 2: We're going to take a poll right now, Laura, Lisa Matteo,
Speaker 2: jump in here, Lisa Matteo. Have you ever been called
Speaker 2: to do a political poll? Lord Davison, have you ever
Speaker 2: been called to do a political poll?
Speaker 8: Quite frequently actually really okay, because I'm a journalist, but
Speaker 8: I get I get these calls, you know, probably five
Speaker 8: or six times over the past year.
Speaker 7: I've never been called Paul never, thankfully, I don't think
Speaker 7: you ought unless I know who's calling me, so, Laura,
Speaker 7: So on this morning console poll, I know we've been
Speaker 7: doing it on a fairly consistent basis.
Speaker 1: Here, what are the latest highlights from this poll for US?
Speaker 8: So what the show is that this is going to
Speaker 8: be a close race. Biden is performing best in these
Speaker 8: blue wall states, so that you know, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 8: you know, he's roughly tied there with Trump. It's in
Speaker 8: these southern states. Arizona has been one where he's been
Speaker 8: been trailing Trump, Georgia, North Carolina. Nevada has been a
Speaker 8: real wild card. Last month it showed that Biden was down,
Speaker 8: you know, almost ten percentage points. This is a month
Speaker 8: that shows that they're nearly tied. So Nevada will be
Speaker 8: a weird one to watch. It's a very transient state.
Speaker 8: It's one that Democrats has consistently done well in. But
Speaker 8: you know, it's really sort of a who knows this time.
Speaker 1: Well, here's the one that kind of got my attention
Speaker 1: from the Bloomberg reporting, half of swing state voters fear
Speaker 1: of violence around the US election. Give us more on that.
Speaker 8: So this was a you know, a little very much
Speaker 8: a sobering realization here in the poll of that half
Speaker 8: of voters are expecting violence around the election. I think
Speaker 8: we've already seen that, you know, sort of those fears
Speaker 8: be fueled with the campus protest in recent weeks as
Speaker 8: well as you know, sort of all of this the
Speaker 8: specter of nineteen sixty eight that really hangs over the
Speaker 8: Democratic Convention that'll be in Chicago later this summer. So
Speaker 8: this is, you know, clearly something that's on voter's minds.
Speaker 8: Obviously January sixth, last election was not completely free from
Speaker 8: violence there. Also, voters are concerned about misinformation. More than
Speaker 8: half of voters think that there will be misinformation that
Speaker 8: will interfere with the election. Also, foreign interference, that's a
Speaker 8: little bit a smaller percentage worry about that, but that's
Speaker 8: also on the mind of voters.
Speaker 1: What are we hearing or seeing in the polling about
Speaker 1: former President Trump and his trial in New York City?
Speaker 1: Is that having any impact? And then I guess the
Speaker 1: other pending litigation as well, is that impacting the numbers?
Speaker 8: So one thing is that voters are not differentiating between
Speaker 8: the various cases. They're not saying, oh, if one thing's
Speaker 8: happened in the you know, document case, I feel differently
Speaker 8: than if it happens in the you know, the store
Speaker 8: media in a hush money case. They sort of lump
Speaker 8: them all together, but it's clearly on voter's minds. The
Speaker 8: poll allows us to you know, ask these open ended
Speaker 8: questions where voters can just sort of share their thoughts.
Speaker 8: The legal case, you know, is one of the top
Speaker 8: issues that people referenced in these open end questions. Of
Speaker 8: course this was taken you know, as you know, Michael Cohen,
Speaker 8: Stormy Daniels were on the stand, so this was you know,
Speaker 8: clearly top of mind in the news as well. But
Speaker 8: it looks like, you know, we asked a specific question
Speaker 8: a couple of months ago looking at you know, Trump
Speaker 8: is convicted. Does that change your opinion and it did?
Speaker 2: Or is there a history? This is sort of like
Speaker 2: a Wendy Schiller question up at Brown Do the candidates
Speaker 2: poll to figure out who the most efficacious VP candidate is?
Speaker 2: Do they do a lot of work before a given
Speaker 2: presidential candidate says this is the one for VP.
Speaker 8: So a traditional presidential campaign does do a lot of
Speaker 8: work and polling. We also did our own polling here
Speaker 8: on these VP candidates that that Trump is looking at.
Speaker 8: We don't have any indication that the BI that the
Speaker 8: Trump campaign is doing their own polling. You know, Trump
Speaker 8: tends to go more on his gut and you sure
Speaker 8: that these people are going to be loyal to him.
Speaker 8: But what we found is that, you know, a lot
Speaker 8: of the people that he's looking at, people like jd
Speaker 8: Vance is the center from Ohio, Doug Bergham, the governor
Speaker 8: of more Dakota. Nobody knows who they are. It's particularly
Speaker 8: in the swing state.
Speaker 2: So this is going to be Yeah, but young Davison,
Speaker 2: I remember the moment where Bush selected dan Quail Hooy.
Speaker 2: It was across the trading floor. The profanity that came
Speaker 2: out Lord Davison, Dan who no one knew, and it
Speaker 2: was it was not appropriate for radio. I mean, Laura,
Speaker 2: I mean, it's does it really matter anymore?
Speaker 8: The VP candidate like Trump, who has basically one hundred
Speaker 8: percent name id, I'm not sure that that the VP
Speaker 8: candidate is going to sway him one way or you know,
Speaker 8: going to sway voters one way or another. You know,
Speaker 8: Trump has talked about you know, potentially picking a woman,
Speaker 8: picking a person of color that could potentially help him
Speaker 8: with those groups. Oh, though increasingly the chatter is, you know,
Speaker 8: picking someone who can help him raise money.
Speaker 2: Okay, the great brief Lord Davison, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: We make jokes about it, but she's just killing it
Speaker 2: down in Washington in the depths, getting towards this national election.
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