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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We thought

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Speaker 2: we'd start with economics. Sema Shaw is scary good. It

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Speaker 2: comes down to London School of Economics or tour of

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Speaker 2: duty at the Bank of England with a huge concision

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Speaker 2: about what's going on. Seema with principle. Thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for joining this morning. Just to cut to the chase,

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Speaker 2: Seema to the central banks and particularly the Fed. Do

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Speaker 2: they have a cogent plan or are they making it

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Speaker 2: up as they go? Hey?

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Speaker 3: Tom, that is that is I think such a good question,

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Speaker 3: because you know, we read we you know, we pour

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Speaker 3: over where the commera is has it moved, what is

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Speaker 3: the what is their indication? What are they thinking, how

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Speaker 3: they feeling. The truth is is that they are digesting

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Speaker 3: the economic data, the incoming stuff, just like we are.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's right that they're making up as

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Speaker 3: they go along. I mean, of course they have an

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Speaker 3: idea that they just have to respond to the data

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Speaker 3: because it's just unfolding, and I don't think they have

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Speaker 3: a clear idea of working is going to be right.

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Speaker 4: In ere England.

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Speaker 2: There's been a lot of good research with respect to

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Speaker 2: how hard it is to do this business, and that

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Speaker 2: as a general statement, the Bank of England and other

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Speaker 2: forecasters simply were too pessimistic and that we got wrong

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Speaker 2: on a fractional basis. On a tenth of a percentage

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Speaker 2: point basis, the growthiness was better than we expected. Do

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Speaker 2: you expect that to continue? And that will underestimate growth

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Speaker 2: among the three central banks?

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Speaker 3: So look, it's possible. I think that, I mean all

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Speaker 3: central banks have had actually maybe with the exception of

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Speaker 3: the ECB, which seems like it's had a kind of

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Speaker 3: a more successful forecast drink ability of the last couple

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Speaker 3: of years. But I think it's it should be getting

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Speaker 3: a little bit more straightforward, because I think the last

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Speaker 3: couple of years have been very difficult for forecasters. And

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Speaker 3: I'm going to put myself in there as well, because

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Speaker 3: we've been living in you know, typically an list. We

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Speaker 3: look at historic data, we use that to give us

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Speaker 3: a guide forward. The thing that forecaster has missed in

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Speaker 3: the last couple of years is that actually the economy

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Speaker 3: has been fundamentally changed by COVID. The normal reaction function,

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Speaker 3: interest rates, sensitivity all very very different. And I think

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Speaker 3: it's only in the last twelve months or so that

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Speaker 3: everyone has started to realize that there is maybe you know,

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Speaker 3: doing a comparison to ninety five to two thousand and

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Speaker 3: seven just doesn't work as well anymore. But from here

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Speaker 3: you're starting to revert kind of normalization should be down

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Speaker 3: the line, and that should make forecasting a bit easier.

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Speaker 1: So Sama, here in the US, do you think this

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Speaker 1: we are in fat today experiencing a soft landing for

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Speaker 1: this economy.

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Speaker 3: I think we're in the motions of a soft landing

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Speaker 3: in the US. So the data is fairly good. Look,

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Speaker 3: we're downshifting, which is a positive thing. The last thing

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Speaker 3: that we want is actually to see economic data continuing

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Speaker 3: to accelerate, because that to me ends up in hard

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Speaker 3: landing later down the line. But I think the jury

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Speaker 3: is still out. You know, we can't say definitively we've

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Speaker 3: got the soft landing, we've achieved it, and we can

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Speaker 3: be all victorious. We won't know for sure for a

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Speaker 3: couple of months, and I do have worries of how

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Speaker 3: the Fed genuinely lands it. I mean, let's say in

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Speaker 3: the next few months, they've seen that inflation comes down,

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Speaker 3: they cut interest roads, they become they start that path.

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Speaker 3: I worry that, actually what's going to happen is that

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Speaker 3: if you're a homeowner and you've been waiting on the sidelines,

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Speaker 3: eager to move but holding back because mortgage rates are

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Speaker 3: so high, you're going to get right back into the market.

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Speaker 3: You're going to ease financial conditions, and you're going to

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Speaker 3: see the market and the economy taking off. So I

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Speaker 3: do worry about, actually, can they do a soft landing?

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Speaker 3: Can they achieve it for more than just a three

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Speaker 3: to six month period.

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Speaker 1: So I guess if you're the Federal Reserve, you saw

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Speaker 1: kind of January, February March some inflationary type of data

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Speaker 1: come out and then kind of. I guess in April

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Speaker 1: reversed a little bit. We got a little bit of

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Speaker 1: you know, slowing down of inflation. So if you're the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve, I guess you can make the argument that

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Speaker 1: there's no reason for them to do anything other than wait.

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Speaker 3: Exactly. I mean, I think after you've had I mean,

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Speaker 3: just basic mass just tells you that if you've had

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Speaker 3: three months of an expected inflation data, you at least

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Speaker 3: need three months of inline inflation data before you could

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Speaker 3: feel any kind of confidence of going back to what

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Speaker 3: your initial plan was. But realistically, given the strengthy of

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Speaker 3: the inflation data and the continued strength of the economy,

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Speaker 3: they probably won a few more months in just three months.

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Speaker 3: So and as I said before, I think they aren't

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Speaker 3: digesting the economic data to the earnings numbers coming out

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Speaker 3: from target certainly very important terms of figuring out where

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Speaker 3: the consumer is, because that's obviously going to tie back

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Speaker 3: and help them figure out what the next market.

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Speaker 2: Is seeman to take the first rate economist ed Yardnny

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Speaker 2: over to his market call, which is a bullmarket wrapped

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Speaker 2: around his concept of a roaring twenties. To me, roaring twenties,

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Speaker 2: either the twentieth century or the twenty first century is

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Speaker 2: about a pop in nominal GDP. Do you, at principle

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Speaker 2: see a combination of real GDP and inflation that leads

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Speaker 2: to an animal spirit that gets to Yard Denny's Roaring twenties.

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Speaker 3: So it's an interesting question. I mean, I can see

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Speaker 3: normal GDP going up mainly because of AI and tech.

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Speaker 3: The Roaring twenties, to me, was about kind of joy

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Speaker 3: on the consumer side, just that relief and wanting to

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Speaker 3: enjoy life and spend it. And I think we've had

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Speaker 3: that for the last couple of years. Whether or not

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Speaker 3: that continues, I think is very very different question. And

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Speaker 3: inflation is going to play into this so much that

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Speaker 3: if you have got her inflation, of course it's based

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Speaker 3: in normal GDP. The consumers are already feeding that retrenchment.

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Speaker 3: They are struggling with it. I'm not sure that you

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Speaker 3: can actually do that initial that direct comparison to the twenties.

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Speaker 2: Siema, Thank you so much. Sea Michaw the principal group. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell a story here. He's gonna love this.

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Speaker 2: So I'm at Michael's like, this is like fifteen seventeen

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Speaker 2: years ago and then you know they're giving me an

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Speaker 2: overpriced saler to my third drink. And it's the art

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Speaker 2: directors from my book, and they're like, Tom, we have

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Speaker 2: to have an inside sleeve one of your charts, one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fourteen charts, which chart would be like when

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Speaker 2: you open the book, you see it, you know, inside

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Speaker 2: the book charter and that, and I make the decision,

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Speaker 2: Like over the olive on the martini, I said, it's

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Speaker 2: got to be Malpass, mail Passes at bear Stearns. And

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Speaker 2: out of all the people in the book, and these

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Speaker 2: are a heavy Bill Dudley, the former Fed president, Bob

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Speaker 2: the New York Fed President, Malpass had the most amazing chart,

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Speaker 2: which was yen in yen and gold like what Dennis

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Speaker 2: Gartman did joining us now the former head of the

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Speaker 2: World Bank and iconic at bear Stearns, mister David Milpass

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Speaker 2: as well. I just looked at yen in you and

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Speaker 2: credit to Dennis Gartman as well. It's the call of

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Speaker 2: the decade week yen that we saw, whether it's yen

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Speaker 2: and gold or yen in whatever. How did Japan turn

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Speaker 2: around this train wreck?

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Speaker 5: Hi? Tom, you you can stabilize your currency by having

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Speaker 5: a good growth plan. So Japan's got to articulate that

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Speaker 5: they're not badly positioned in the world since people are

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Speaker 5: trying to diversify away from China, and Japan has a

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Speaker 5: lot of the things that people want, and so if

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Speaker 5: they can retool the economy, it can work.

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Speaker 2: It's an experiment of reflation, which is pretty you know,

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Speaker 2: you're in Colorado college and it's like, you know, it's

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Speaker 2: not even in the textbooks. Okay, it's an experiment in reflation,

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Speaker 2: and they want to pull that back. Can they find

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Speaker 2: a middle ground that works versus tripping into deflation again?

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Speaker 5: They can, but they need to really think about their

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Speaker 5: interest rates. You know, they're pushing up against the one

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Speaker 5: percent limit on the tier. It really doesn't doesn't work

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Speaker 5: to say you're going to limit your bond yield, but

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Speaker 5: you want your currency to stop weakening. So right now

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Speaker 5: they're intervening to try to tide that over. That can

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Speaker 5: work for a little while, but at some point you

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Speaker 5: have to say your interest rates are going to be

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Speaker 5: more similar to the rest of the world interest rate Paul.

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Speaker 2: Wants to jump in one more question and Yen, what

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Speaker 2: is your call on Jeopanese?

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Speaker 4: Yen?

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Speaker 2: I know you're not doing FX and market economists, but

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Speaker 2: do you see a big figure strengthening in Japanese yen

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Speaker 2: or more of the same.

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Speaker 5: I think it could settle where it is now and

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Speaker 5: the world would accept that, And that is a little

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Speaker 5: bit what is going on the world move through currency

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Speaker 5: realignments and then tries to stabilize after that and reduce

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Speaker 5: the harm from that.

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Speaker 2: He's tanned and rested. I left exactly hand arrested.

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Speaker 5: I know.

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Speaker 1: I'm very impressed, David. We've seen come bringing it back

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Speaker 1: to the US. Here my entire career, we've been talking

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Speaker 1: about annual deficits in the national debt, and now we

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Speaker 1: even have Jamie Diamond, David Solomon and gold and Sachs

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Speaker 1: talking about the national debt. We've even got that silly

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Speaker 1: thing downtown where they tally of the national debt on

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Speaker 1: a daily basis.

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Speaker 2: Of everybody to see is.

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Speaker 1: It time to care about that stuff? Like I'm sixty,

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Speaker 1: do I care?

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Speaker 5: I think absolutely it is time to care. It was

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Speaker 5: one thing when the US economy had a fifty percent

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Speaker 5: debt to GDP ratio, you could borrow that and not

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Speaker 5: really not really at tax the world's capital or or

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Speaker 5: take all of the world's capital. We're the biggest economy,

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Speaker 5: and we're borrowing so much that it changes capital flows

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Speaker 5: around the world, and I think it's doing it in

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Speaker 5: a harmful way. It's the government gets the first DIBs

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Speaker 5: on all capital, and then if there's any leftover, big

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Speaker 5: corporations get it through the bond market. And if there's

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Speaker 5: any leftover, which there isn't really, small businesses can borrow

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Speaker 5: to fund their inventory, their working capital, and countries outside

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Speaker 5: the US have a little bit of capital at the

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Speaker 5: end of the line. That's not a workable system for

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Speaker 5: the world. So I think there has to be, both

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Speaker 5: in the US and in the world, an urgency that

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Speaker 5: the US government stopped growing at spending.

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Speaker 1: And this is, I guess a political issue, and again

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Speaker 1: in my lifetime, i've never seen the political will to

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Speaker 1: address it because it doesn't sound very popular.

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Speaker 5: That's right, And I think there's a big gap in

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Speaker 5: our law. You know, the debt limit law is misnamed.

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Speaker 5: It's really the debt increase law. So every couple of

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Speaker 5: years presidents both parties sign a law to increase the

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Speaker 5: debt limit. We have to replace it with something workable, strong,

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Speaker 5: and it has to hurt Washington, not hurt the people

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Speaker 5: of the country when we're when we have too much debt,

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Speaker 5: they shut the national parks rather than reducing the staff

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Speaker 5: hiring in DC. The swamp gets bigger. World Bank and

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Speaker 5: it's a swamp. Now it worked in the swamp. What

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Speaker 5: you learn working in the swamp? Uh So in this

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Speaker 5: so Washington is a swamp. The parts, all the parts

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Speaker 5: work together to make Washington bigger and more profitable. That's

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Speaker 5: that's a risk. And the World Bank is part of that.

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Speaker 5: It's headquartered and uh and centered in Washington. One thing

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Speaker 5: I learned Tom was how hard it is to get

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Speaker 5: any other country to do the right thing. It's just

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Speaker 5: as hard outside the US as in the US. So

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Speaker 5: if you take Nigeria, why is this oil rich country

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Speaker 5: so poor? They've got a huge, extreme poverty rate. Why

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Speaker 5: is that because the government takes the all the profits

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Speaker 5: from oil and wastes it.

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Speaker 2: This is such a better Mail pass than the World

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Speaker 2: Bank and eight people standing around looking at every where.

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Speaker 2: David Mail passes public service to the nation in the

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Speaker 2: world with the World Bank and involved in politics as well.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking here at the intellectual combine over at Schwab

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Speaker 2: and I got SMP tech sectors forward price to sales

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Speaker 2: ratio pushing up against this all time. I thank you

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Speaker 2: Kevin Gordon for that wisdom. Joining us now, Lizzie Saunders

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Speaker 2: is a privilege of working with Kevin Gordon. Lizzy, and

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Speaker 2: you do the best charts on you and you're in Timmer,

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Speaker 2: do the best charts on Twitter today. What's your most

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Speaker 2: important chart that you're putting out for Schwab right now?

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Speaker 6: Oh boy, that's a good question. There's so many. I

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Speaker 6: think it's labor market data. I think it's it's claims,

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Speaker 6: continuing claims, what we see in the monthly jobs report.

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Speaker 6: I think that's the needle mover in terms of Fed policy.

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Speaker 2: Correlating targets earnings this morning and very great disappointment on revenue.

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Speaker 2: Can you coordinate that we correlate that, I should say

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Speaker 2: with the labor market.

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Speaker 6: Well, you know I don't cover individual stocks, including Target,

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Speaker 6: but but you know you have the earnings story this

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Speaker 6: quarter at the bottom line level has been better than expected,

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Speaker 6: the beat rate, the percent by which companies have beaten.

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Speaker 6: But you've got overall revenue growth down around in line

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Speaker 6: with where inflation is. So it really has exposed the

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Speaker 6: companies that actually do have pricing power and don't have

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Speaker 6: pricing power. In addition, revenue beat rate has been below average.

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Speaker 6: The percent by which companies have beaten on the top

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Speaker 6: line has been below average. So I think this is increasingly,

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Speaker 6: yet again a sign of this bifurcation happening, whether it's

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Speaker 6: between nominal and real, high end consumer and low end

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Speaker 6: consumer services versus the good side, discretionary versus non discretionary.

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Speaker 6: And I think there's a reason why the consumer discretionary

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Speaker 6: sector has been performing poorly is we're now seeing more

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Speaker 6: than just cracks in the facade of the consumer.

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Speaker 1: So, Lizane, I guess one of the key issues here

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Speaker 1: are the earnings that we have seen and again we're

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Speaker 1: going to another big one after the close tonight with Nvidia.

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Speaker 1: Have they been strong enough to support this big move

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Speaker 1: up and equity valuations that we've seen since October.

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Speaker 6: Well, you've got about I think the blended growth rate

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Speaker 6: right now is eleven percent. That's inclusive of the companies

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Speaker 6: that have yet to report, and that is well better

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Speaker 6: than what was expected at the beginning of reporting season.

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Speaker 6: That's getting there. But I think earnings do need to

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Speaker 6: continue to surprise on the upside because last year's strengthen

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Speaker 6: the market was almostultiple expansion because you didn't have much

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Speaker 6: in the way of earnings growth. So I think the

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Speaker 6: earnings do have to play catchup. Obviously, the report out

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Speaker 6: today is incredibly important, not just psychologically, which we know

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Speaker 6: it's going to be important psychologically, but if you look

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Speaker 6: at the overall tech sector, the earnings growth rate drops

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Speaker 6: from about twenty four percent or so twenty three twenty

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Speaker 6: four percent down to less than eleven excluding what is

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Speaker 6: expected for Nvidia, So it is obviously the poster child.

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Speaker 6: But that has been the support for the tech sector,

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Speaker 6: which is the overall support for a higher valuation level.

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Speaker 6: If you look around the world, one of the mistakes

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Speaker 6: that investors make is they do valuation comps country to country,

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Speaker 6: region or region without taking into consideration what are the

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Speaker 6: underlying drivers of the local economy. And when you have

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Speaker 6: more of an information tech based economy, that is support

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Speaker 6: of all LSEQL of a higher valuation backdrop. The last

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Speaker 6: thing I'd say is inflation as a backdrop for valuations

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Speaker 6: is important, maybe not coinstantly. The sweet spot in terms

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Speaker 6: of historical valuations being supported at a higher level, has

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Speaker 6: been in and around that two percent inflation zone. We're

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Speaker 6: obviously not there yet, even if we're directionally heading in

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Speaker 6: the right way.

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Speaker 1: Lizzie, what are some of the sectors that screen well

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Speaker 1: for you and your team here?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So we relaunched Schwab sector views at the beginning

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Speaker 6: of the year after a two year hiatus for a

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Speaker 6: whole variety of reasons, and we haven't had any change

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Speaker 6: in terms of the sectors on which we have outperform

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Speaker 6: ratings since the beginning of the year. So it's financials, materials,

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Speaker 6: and energy. Obviously a very cyclical bias in terms of

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Speaker 6: where our outperforms are. The two underperforms are rates, maybe

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Speaker 6: no surprise given the problems in commercial real estate, and

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Speaker 6: then as we already touched on a consumat discretionary, the

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Speaker 6: rest are in that neutral category.

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Speaker 2: Is how do you manage a bull market across the

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Speaker 2: kitchen table selling main goal away that didn't work out.

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Speaker 2: It was a great chart. I don't know if Young

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Speaker 2: Gordon added at Schwab, but you know, it's like we're

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Speaker 2: getting back to you know, two thousand and six, ownership

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Speaker 2: of equities sixty some percent, whatever the number is it's

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Speaker 2: really great, We're all in on this market.

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Speaker 4: How do you manage the.

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Speaker 2: Emotion of a bull market on a kitchen table over a.

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Speaker 6: Beverage pall, You know, Tom, that's an interesting question because

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Speaker 6: you know, household exposure to equities is a behavioral measure

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Speaker 6: of sentiment, for lack of a better word, But you've

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Speaker 6: got attitudinal measures of the sentiment. And one of the

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Speaker 6: interesting things that has occurred in the last couple of

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Speaker 6: years really in this sort of post COVID bear market cycle,

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Speaker 6: is that you get much bigger swings in the attitudinal

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Speaker 6: measures of sentiment than you do in the behavioral measures.

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Speaker 6: So if you look at just AAII American association of

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Speaker 6: individual investors, you can see pretty big moves in a

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Speaker 6: very short period of time up in percentage of bulls,

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Speaker 6: up in percentage of bears depending on the new year

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Speaker 6: term wiggles in the market. But you haven't seen much

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Speaker 6: more movement in that invested exposure piece of it. So

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Speaker 6: I think that there is some complacency out there as

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Speaker 6: measured by the behavioral measures, but those attitudinal measures are

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Speaker 6: swinging much more quickly in this environment.

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Speaker 2: What do you see at Schwab What is cash doing.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 6: I think for a lot of investors, cash is earning income,

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Speaker 6: so you've got income and fixed income. Again, That's why

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Speaker 6: I push back on this notion that the six trillion

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Speaker 6: dollars in money market funds is just sitting there ripe

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Speaker 6: to jump into the equity market. I think that's probably

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Speaker 6: fairly sticky, and I think it's great comfort, particularly for

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Speaker 6: more conservative or older investors that had to stretch for

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Speaker 6: yield and move out the risk spectrum, to not have

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Speaker 6: to do that. You've got implications for within the equity side,

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Speaker 6: especially areas like dividend stocks that will increase in attractiveness

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Speaker 6: depending on what yields are doing. But I think a

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Speaker 6: lot of that sort of cash money is fairly sticky,

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Speaker 6: but is turning a nice shield at this point.

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Speaker 2: Lizien, it was great having your assistant Kevin Gordon on,

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Speaker 2: but you know he failed in one.

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Speaker 6: Oh he's more than that. But yeah, I love that interview,

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Speaker 6: well done.

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Speaker 2: We were coming out of it and I said to

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Speaker 2: him casually, I said, let's play some Nickelback. He didn't

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Speaker 2: know who nickelback was.

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Speaker 7: The young law did not know who Nickelback was.

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Speaker 6: I taught him. Well, he knows who is, so you

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Speaker 6: better know that if.

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Speaker 2: It was to cash a paycheck. Lizianne Saunders, working with

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Speaker 2: the great Kevin Gordon and Schwab, thank you so much.

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Speaker 4: I can't say nothing. Joining us now.

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Speaker 2: The worst job in Bloomberg. She has to sort through

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Speaker 2: the four hundred polls that are coming up before the

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Speaker 2: first Tuesday of November. Lord Davis's deputy US Politics team

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Speaker 2: lead and poll talent with Bloomberg News. He pulled out

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Speaker 2: Laura and my summary of all the different polls is

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Speaker 2: the White House is making very clear they don't believe

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Speaker 2: the polls.

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Speaker 4: Do I have that right?

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Speaker 3: Yes.

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Speaker 8: Biden has repeatedly said that he thinks that the polls

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Speaker 8: are undercutting him and underselling his popularity. You know, of course,

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Speaker 8: polls are a snapshot in time, and you know, do

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Speaker 8: have a margin in air and our Navy tool that

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Speaker 8: can tell us direction. But several polls, including you know,

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Speaker 8: the months that we've done this Bloomberg Morning Console poll

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Speaker 8: as well as others, have shown that that Trump consistently

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Speaker 8: leads him in the United States.

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Speaker 2: Is there a history that supports President Biden that the

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Speaker 2: Poles get it wrong and he'll do better than good

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Speaker 2: the first Tuesday of November.

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Speaker 8: So in twenty twenty two in the midterms, there was

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Speaker 8: this big red wave projected and that didn't materialize. So

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Speaker 8: that is sort of what Biden is basing his you know,

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Speaker 8: his his hanging his hat on there of saying, look,

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Speaker 8: you know the polls that we were going to lose before,

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Speaker 8: and we didn't end up, you know, kind of with

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Speaker 8: quite the shri lacking we were expecting. But you know,

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Speaker 8: this is uh, you know, a presidential polling is different.

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Speaker 8: It is a little bit more precise than you know,

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Speaker 8: congressional polling, where you've got you know, a bunch of

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Speaker 8: different polls, you know, across you know, hundreds of races.

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Speaker 8: But this is a consistent sign and a worrying sign

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Speaker 8: for the Biden campaign that he.

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Speaker 2: We're going to take a poll right now, Laura, Lisa Matteo,

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Speaker 2: jump in here, Lisa Matteo. Have you ever been called

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Speaker 2: to do a political poll? Lord Davison, have you ever

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Speaker 2: been called to do a political poll?

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Speaker 8: Quite frequently actually really okay, because I'm a journalist, but

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Speaker 8: I get I get these calls, you know, probably five

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Speaker 8: or six times over the past year.

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Speaker 7: I've never been called Paul never, thankfully, I don't think

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Speaker 7: you ought unless I know who's calling me, so, Laura,

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Speaker 7: So on this morning console poll, I know we've been

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Speaker 7: doing it on a fairly consistent basis.

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Speaker 1: Here, what are the latest highlights from this poll for US?

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Speaker 8: So what the show is that this is going to

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Speaker 8: be a close race. Biden is performing best in these

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Speaker 8: blue wall states, so that you know, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 8: you know, he's roughly tied there with Trump. It's in

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Speaker 8: these southern states. Arizona has been one where he's been

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Speaker 8: been trailing Trump, Georgia, North Carolina. Nevada has been a

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Speaker 8: real wild card. Last month it showed that Biden was down,

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Speaker 8: you know, almost ten percentage points. This is a month

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Speaker 8: that shows that they're nearly tied. So Nevada will be

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Speaker 8: a weird one to watch. It's a very transient state.

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Speaker 8: It's one that Democrats has consistently done well in. But

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Speaker 8: you know, it's really sort of a who knows this time.

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Speaker 1: Well, here's the one that kind of got my attention

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Speaker 1: from the Bloomberg reporting, half of swing state voters fear

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Speaker 1: of violence around the US election. Give us more on that.

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Speaker 8: So this was a you know, a little very much

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Speaker 8: a sobering realization here in the poll of that half

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Speaker 8: of voters are expecting violence around the election. I think

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Speaker 8: we've already seen that, you know, sort of those fears

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Speaker 8: be fueled with the campus protest in recent weeks as

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Speaker 8: well as you know, sort of all of this the

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Speaker 8: specter of nineteen sixty eight that really hangs over the

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Speaker 8: Democratic Convention that'll be in Chicago later this summer. So

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Speaker 8: this is, you know, clearly something that's on voter's minds.

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Speaker 8: Obviously January sixth, last election was not completely free from

436
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,719
Speaker 8: violence there. Also, voters are concerned about misinformation. More than

437
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 8: half of voters think that there will be misinformation that

438
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 8: will interfere with the election. Also, foreign interference, that's a

439
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 8: little bit a smaller percentage worry about that, but that's

440
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 8: also on the mind of voters.

441
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 1: What are we hearing or seeing in the polling about

442
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: former President Trump and his trial in New York City?

443
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 1: Is that having any impact? And then I guess the

444
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 1: other pending litigation as well, is that impacting the numbers?

445
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 8: So one thing is that voters are not differentiating between

446
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 8: the various cases. They're not saying, oh, if one thing's

447
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 8: happened in the you know, document case, I feel differently

448
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 8: than if it happens in the you know, the store

449
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 8: media in a hush money case. They sort of lump

450
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 8: them all together, but it's clearly on voter's minds. The

451
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 8: poll allows us to you know, ask these open ended

452
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 8: questions where voters can just sort of share their thoughts.

453
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 8: The legal case, you know, is one of the top

454
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 8: issues that people referenced in these open end questions. Of

455
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 8: course this was taken you know, as you know, Michael Cohen,

456
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 8: Stormy Daniels were on the stand, so this was you know,

457
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 8: clearly top of mind in the news as well. But

458
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,880
Speaker 8: it looks like, you know, we asked a specific question

459
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 8: a couple of months ago looking at you know, Trump

460
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,360
Speaker 8: is convicted. Does that change your opinion and it did?

461
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 2: Or is there a history? This is sort of like

462
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 2: a Wendy Schiller question up at Brown Do the candidates

463
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 2: poll to figure out who the most efficacious VP candidate is?

464
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 2: Do they do a lot of work before a given

465
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 2: presidential candidate says this is the one for VP.

466
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 8: So a traditional presidential campaign does do a lot of

467
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 8: work and polling. We also did our own polling here

468
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 8: on these VP candidates that that Trump is looking at.

469
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 8: We don't have any indication that the BI that the

470
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 8: Trump campaign is doing their own polling. You know, Trump

471
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 8: tends to go more on his gut and you sure

472
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 8: that these people are going to be loyal to him.

473
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 8: But what we found is that, you know, a lot

474
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 8: of the people that he's looking at, people like jd

475
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 8: Vance is the center from Ohio, Doug Bergham, the governor

476
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 8: of more Dakota. Nobody knows who they are. It's particularly

477
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 8: in the swing state.

478
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 2: So this is going to be Yeah, but young Davison,

479
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: I remember the moment where Bush selected dan Quail Hooy.

480
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 2: It was across the trading floor. The profanity that came

481
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 2: out Lord Davison, Dan who no one knew, and it

482
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 2: was it was not appropriate for radio. I mean, Laura,

483
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: I mean, it's does it really matter anymore?

484
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 8: The VP candidate like Trump, who has basically one hundred

485
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 8: percent name id, I'm not sure that that the VP

486
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 8: candidate is going to sway him one way or you know,

487
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 8: going to sway voters one way or another. You know,

488
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 8: Trump has talked about you know, potentially picking a woman,

489
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,360
Speaker 8: picking a person of color that could potentially help him

490
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 8: with those groups. Oh, though increasingly the chatter is, you know,

491
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 8: picking someone who can help him raise money.

492
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 2: Okay, the great brief Lord Davison, thank you so much.

493
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 2: We make jokes about it, but she's just killing it

494
00:25:55,720 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 2: down in Washington in the depths, getting towards this national election.

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00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,920
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00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:09,640
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