1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. Basically, 2 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: we're out of money. That's why today in order to 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: sustain Ukraine as a as it continues to fight, and 4 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: I'm sending Congress a supplemental budget request. Bloomberg Sound On Politics, 5 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: Policy and perspective from DC's top name. We all expected 6 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: this quarder would be a bit slower. They have tried 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: to make the case that this is at plutin price 8 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: hype that has fallen flat Inslation has gone off every month. 9 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:37,879 Speaker 1: Pickture biking im President Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew 10 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Surprise Surprise, the economy contracts in the 11 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 1: first quarter, and President Biden asks Congress for tens of 12 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,160 Speaker 1: billions to fund Ukraine. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics. 13 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: As we join you again from Bloomberg World Headquarters in 14 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 1: New York. Will zero in on today's GDP report and 15 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: consider the political imp occasions as Congress makes its plans 16 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: for the rest of the year with Ed Mills, Washington 17 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: policy analyst at Raymond James. Later, our conversation with barat 18 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: Rama Murdy, Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council. 19 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: Also g d P of course on the agenda and 20 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: a major effort to help small business at the White 21 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: House today that we'll be talking about. Senator Joe Manchin 22 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 1: wants to make a deal on energy and climate. Are 23 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: we really doing this again? We'll talk about it with 24 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 1: our panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick Davis. 25 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: Kind of surreal to see the word contraction on the 26 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg screen this morning watching surveillance. What GDP drops unexpectedly 27 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,959 Speaker 1: one point four percent, coming in below all but one 28 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: estimate in a Bloomberg survey. But it had much to 29 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: do with a trade imbalance than anything. Certainly was not 30 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: due to consumers pulling back. So it's kind of a 31 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: counterintuitive story here in a way. Then again, one more 32 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: of these and we fulfill the definition of a recession. 33 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: Right this morning, I asked the Commerce Secretary Gina Romando 34 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: has joined us on balance of power, if that's a 35 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: concern for her, if she's reading into this any further 36 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,679 Speaker 1: than this quarter here she is. If you look at 37 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: small business starts, um, they're higher than ever. Wages her 38 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 1: up and talk to CEOs about their businesses. They you know, 39 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,959 Speaker 1: the economy is resilient and growing, so at this point, 40 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: obviously you don't want to see this, you know, the disappointing. 41 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: You never want to see it. But we weren't surprised, 42 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: and I don't think it's a trend. Okay, a trend 43 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 1: one quarter does not make, which means the Fed keeps hiking. 44 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: So nothing to see here, move right along or is there? 45 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 1: Let's talk about it with Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst 46 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: and managing director at Raymond James. I'm guessing Ed, this 47 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: is not the number that you or your firm was 48 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 1: looking for. Here. It was a bit of a shocker, 49 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: but also people don't seem to be terribly concerned about it, 50 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: considering why when you look under the hood, Joe, when 51 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 1: you look under the hood, um, you know, certainly tells 52 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: a different story. But when I look at this from 53 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:08,359 Speaker 1: a political angle, I'm reminded that in politics, when you're 54 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 1: explaining you're losing and so uh if you do have 55 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: two consecutive quarters, you mentioned the R word. Uh. Here 56 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 1: in d C. The R word is great for Republicans 57 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: because Biden has wanted to sell the Biden boom heading 58 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: into the midterm elections. Um, and this really changes the conversation, 59 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: even if it's not true. Um, the rhetoric here really 60 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: is what's going to matter from a political perspective. Well, 61 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: let's let's hold on to that view for a moment, 62 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: because you know, the President didn't get out of the 63 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: Roosevelt Room without a question on the economy and a 64 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: possible recession. He was there, of course, someone ask you 65 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: about this, had to commit tens of billions more to Ukraine. 66 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: But as the questions came, number three, number four, he 67 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: was asked about this. And the President doesn't seem too 68 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: concerned about a recession here. He is, we need this boom, 69 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: the support you created, this fight for freedom, and our 70 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: NATO allies are you partners. They're gonna pay their fair 71 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: share of the costs as well. But we have to 72 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: do this. We have to do our part as well. 73 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: The cost of this fight. Uh, it's not cheap, but 74 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: kvy new aggression is going to be more costly if 75 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 1: we allow it to happen. He was talking about Ukraine there. 76 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: I don't know if we have the other one, uh, ed, 77 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 1: But the idea in his response was it's not likely 78 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: that we move into recession much like we heard from 79 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: his Commerce secretary, uh, Gina Romando. Is that a hopeful 80 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: view or is it when you share? Well, that's the 81 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 1: view he has to have. Um. You know, the president 82 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 1: has to be a cheerleader for the economy. The president 83 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: has to kind of highlight some of the economic indicators 84 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 1: that on paper have been really positive in terms of 85 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 1: where the consumer is. We've seen through earning seasons. Uh, 86 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: some of the Bank's kind of highlighting the balances and 87 00:04:55,920 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 1: individual checking accounts. But the problem politically has been, um, 88 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: what it looks like on paper versus what it feels 89 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,719 Speaker 1: like for the average American. And so where this is 90 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: politically problematic for the president in for congressional Democrats is 91 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: that Americans by a pretty sizable number already are saying 92 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: that this country is on the wrong track. And if 93 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 1: the economic data then changes to support that view, those 94 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: are just more political headwinds that the president in congressional 95 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: Democrats are facing come the voting time in November. This 96 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: all comes against the backdrop of inflation and a pretty 97 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: aggressive federal reserve. At this point, we're looking for a 98 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: half point next week. There's talk of of seventy five 99 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: basis points maybe at the meeting after ED. Does this 100 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: report today do anything to change your expectations on that front? Joe, 101 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: it doesn't. I do think that because of how you 102 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 1: highlighted UM, you know, kind of the beneath the hood 103 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 1: aspect of this um. You know, that doesn't change the 104 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: trajectory of the FED UM. And I do think that 105 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: that overall is going to continue to put pressure UM 106 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: on you know, consumers as they look for mortgages in 107 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 1: a lot of pocketbook issues. There is a hope that 108 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: the FEDS tightening does tame inflation. I think the debate 109 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 1: that I've had with clients as I've been on the 110 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: road here at Raymond James this last week has been 111 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: once the inflation indicators come down a little bit and 112 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: we get some new confirmations on the FED board, how 113 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 1: hawkish will the FED be able to remain? But near 114 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: term this doesn't change. And Joe, for the party in charge, 115 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 1: that's a problem. Let's talk more about the requests that 116 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: he made. You just heard President Biden from earlier today. 117 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 1: Thirty three billion dollars is the number. And from every 118 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: lawmaker we have spoken with, this gets passed without even 119 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: really it's almost a blank check who there's so much 120 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: bipartisan supply word for funding Ukraine in this war Uh 121 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 1: with Russia. The question that I will have beyond does 122 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: that get past head because it seems to be a yes, 123 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: is what's attached to it? Are we gonna try to 124 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: attach COVID funding? Is there going to be a conversation 125 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: about Title forty two supplemental for homeland for the border? 126 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 1: What are you hearing, Joe? You're exactly right to bring 127 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: this up because there is no doubt that there is 128 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: overwhelming support for this package for Ukraine. It's really just 129 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 1: a question of timing. Uh. You've already seen congressional Republicans 130 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: come out and say if the COVID relief package gets 131 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: added to it, Uh, it could sink both packages. I 132 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: don't think that's the case, but Republicans do like to 133 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: or prefer to have this as two separate votes. That's 134 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: not an issue in the House. The House can pass anything, 135 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: but to get this through the Senate, you do need 136 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: a bipartisan vote. You do need those sixty votes on 137 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: the COVID package. That's more likely than not to still happen. UM. 138 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: But the vote is going to have to take place 139 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: on Title forty two. We had a judge this week 140 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: strike that down, which is going to put even more 141 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: pressure on Democrats uh to vote to keep Title forty 142 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: two in place, keep um the you know, pandemic restrictions 143 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: on asylum and uh kind of refugee seekers in the 144 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: United States on the other side of the US border. 145 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: So politically, this is going to be a tough needle 146 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,199 Speaker 1: to thread, especially in the Senate for Chuck Schumer. And 147 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: the more time you spend on this is time that 148 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 1: you're not spending on other priorities, uh, such as reconciliation, 149 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: which um Democrats really do want to take another run 150 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: at it. So every day of floor time is a 151 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,199 Speaker 1: day away from other priorities. That's the bigger issue. Well, 152 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 1: that reconciliation idea. And I know that they wanted to 153 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 1: make another turn and still might this year that that 154 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: option is available, but it may not fly if now 155 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: Joe Mansion once again the wrench in the works here. 156 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: He wants to come up with a deal that gets 157 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 1: bipartisan support and does not require reconciliation, and it would 158 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,199 Speaker 1: be some sort of mix of energy and climate. I 159 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,559 Speaker 1: don't think we'd call it build back better or make 160 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: America whatever. It would have to have a new brand 161 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: and a new marketing campaign. But if that's what Joe 162 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: Mansion wants, I'm assuming he's not playing along with this 163 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: reconciliation idea once again. You think, yeah, Joe, that's not 164 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: gonna happen. I'm not gonna know. I mean, we're yeah, 165 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: it's it's um kind of more and more we're seeing 166 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: kind of from conversations here in DC, the Biden administration 167 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: being concerned whether or not they can get Mansion to 168 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: a table. I do think that part of this is, 169 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: you know, fully energy specific. You know, he has a 170 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: chairmanship in a gabble where he wants to have a process, 171 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 1: at least in his committee. It's been shocking to me 172 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: that they have not kind of listened to that desire 173 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: for him to shape this package. If they get reconciliation, 174 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 1: if there's any legislative package, it is going to be 175 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,959 Speaker 1: first and foremost an energy package. Some healthcare provisions, maybe 176 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: a couple of other, uh smaller scale down versions of 177 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: social spending. But you know, the more they kind of 178 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 1: don't listen to exactly what he's asking for and don't 179 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: move in that direction. That's a step away from getting 180 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,199 Speaker 1: anything done. Why not just have him write it. I mean, 181 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: didn't we already see all of this. We saw this 182 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: movie last year. We already know the ending. It doesn't 183 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 1: play well for the White House yet. Yeah. I think 184 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 1: that the thought from the White House was as much 185 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: as they needed to have some hard thought wins and 186 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 1: getting him on board because of the voice of the 187 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: Progressives was pushing in. Senator Sanders, chairman of the Budget 188 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: Committee in charge of the process started off at six 189 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: trillion dollars. You also had to have hard fought losses 190 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: um and um. You know, you had to show that 191 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 1: they were standing up to something, to show the Democratic 192 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: base what was not achievable. I think they spent too 193 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 1: much time there and didn't recognize that Mansion was going 194 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: to hold as farm as he was. The inflation picture, 195 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: the economic picture has only worsened, so they missed that window. 196 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,079 Speaker 1: They want to get something done. We'll see if we 197 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 1: erupted in history again this year, and we'll talk to 198 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: Ed about it. Great to spend time with Ed Mills, 199 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 1: Washington policy analyst at Raymond James will assemble the panel next. 200 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with 201 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio as we bring in the 202 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: panel following a really fascinating conversation with Ed Mills about 203 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: the chances of real anything happening in Congress between now 204 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: and the rest of the year, certainly in the conversation 205 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: about Build Back Better, the sequel and whatever stripped down 206 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 1: version we might end up with here, we're gonna be 207 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: talking about this in just a moment with barat ram 208 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: A Murdy, the Deputy Director of the White House National 209 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: Economic Council. They've got a big event going on over 210 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: there today for small businesses trying to unlock resources for 211 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: small business that we'll talk with in a moment. Deputy 212 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: Director Roma Murdy, Welcome to Bloomberg Radio. It's great to 213 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: have you here. I'm going to ask you about this 214 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: small biz event that you're hosting at the White House today. 215 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: Looking forward to hearing about it. I'm just curious to 216 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,719 Speaker 1: get your your first reaction though to our g d 217 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: P report today. Was it startling to see that word 218 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 1: contraction on the screen this morning or did you see 219 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: it coming? Well? I think that a number of analysts 220 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,719 Speaker 1: had predicted that because of some technical quirks and how 221 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: the data is collected and analyzed that we would have 222 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 1: the possibility of seeing a number like that. I do 223 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: think that if you look under the hood of today's 224 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 1: real court, what you see are continued signs of a 225 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: resilient economy. You see very strong consumer spending, You see 226 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: very very strong business investment, you see very strong residential investment. 227 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: The reasons that it went negative are kind of more 228 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: volatile data about trade and about inventories, and so if 229 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 1: you take a look at the big picture here and 230 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: get past the headline, I think you continue to see 231 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: evidence a very strong economic recovery that, by many measures, 232 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 1: is the strongest economic recovery of any leading economy in 233 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: the world. Well, it's certainly how the market seems to 234 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,839 Speaker 1: be taking it in our analysis here at Bloomberg would 235 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: would align with what you're saying that you know, in 236 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: one instance, we had ships lined up, as you well know, 237 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: uh brought at the ports up and down the West coast. 238 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 1: A lot of those ships came in and so we 239 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 1: had a massive trade imbalance here. Is there a chance 240 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: that that might happen again in this quarter? Well, it's 241 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 1: it's hard to predict, but I think your main point 242 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:49,559 Speaker 1: is correct, which is that part of what you are 243 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 1: seeing here in the data is that some of the 244 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: supply chain issues that we are grappling with for a 245 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 1: significant chunk of last year coming out of COVID are 246 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,559 Speaker 1: starting to resolve themselves. One of the things the President 247 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 1: is proud of is that working with business groups and labor, 248 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: he was able to push the ports of l A 249 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 1: and Long Beach. They opened twenty four hours a day, 250 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 1: seven days a week, massively increase their throughput, and you know, 251 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 1: we're starting to see some of those effects in the data. 252 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 1: I think on the whole, it's a good sign for 253 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: Americans that they're able to get their imported goods on 254 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: time and in an efficient way. UM inflation is going 255 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 1: to start coming in? Is that? Is this happening as 256 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 1: you were hoping? Again, if you look at outside analysts 257 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 1: and some other projections, inflation by many many, by many 258 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: accounts is predicted to UH to temper and go down 259 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:40,400 Speaker 1: over the course of this year. Of course, there are 260 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: many unpredictable things that could happen. I think if you 261 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: look at the data that we have before, is right 262 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: now there is very clear evidence that Number one the 263 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: US economic recovery is the strongest in the world. Number two. 264 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 1: If you look at I m F projections, the economic 265 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: growth that's projected through the end of the year puts 266 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 1: the United States number one among G seven countries. Number three. 267 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: Household balance sheets, by many measures, have never been healthier, 268 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 1: not for thirty years. You look at debt to debt 269 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 1: to income ratio, the ability of folks to pay off 270 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 1: credit card debt and other debts. Families as a whole 271 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 1: are a very strong financial position, and that creates a 272 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 1: good buffer for our time. You were a member of 273 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 1: the COVID Congressional Oversight Commission, which oversaw the Treasuries management 274 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: of stimulus from the Cares Act. You hear people now, 275 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 1: I'm I'm sure barat as I do blaming the stimulus 276 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 1: for overheating the economy. Are they right about that? When 277 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 1: you look back on decisions that were made then, I 278 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 1: think we were dealing with highly uncertain and uh and 279 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: cataclysmic event. You know, we look, we saw unemployment reached 280 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 1: levels that hadn't been reached since the Great Depression, and 281 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: under those circumstances, policymakers overall, I think have the right 282 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: approach let's get money into the hands of families, in 283 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: the hands of small businesses that needed go big was 284 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: the line. Then Yeah, and if you look at the quality, 285 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: the the strength of our recovery, and the speed of 286 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 1: our recovery, that paid dividends. I just want to go 287 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: back and put people in the position that we were 288 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: in before this president took office, and the nonpartisan Congressional 289 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 1: Budget Office was projecting we would have unemployment about five 290 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 1: percent for years to come and that we wouldn't reach 291 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: three point six percent unemployment for many years from now. Instead, 292 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: we reached three point six percent unemployment a couple months ago. 293 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: So uh, that's made a really powerful difference in a 294 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: lot of people's lives. Long term unemployment can be very 295 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: scarring for folks. It's bad for families, it's bad for 296 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: the economy. We avoided a lot of those negative effects, 297 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 1: but you see it as a necessary cost to getting 298 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: out of that crisis. As we spend time with Barat 299 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: Rama Murty of the White House National Economic Council, which 300 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: he helps to run as deputy director, Baratt, how are 301 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: you helping to unlock resources for entrepreneurs in this time? 302 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 1: We talked so much about inflation. You and I are 303 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 1: right now, it can there can be a lot of 304 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,120 Speaker 1: challenges to starting a business. I know today that you're 305 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: you're holding a major event for small business at the 306 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 1: White House, UH to actually talk about the President's speaking 307 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: about this what he refers to as the small business boom. 308 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:15,879 Speaker 1: What can you do to help somebody who's trying to 309 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: start a business in this economic climate. I think what 310 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 1: the report that came out today shows is that looking 311 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: at one the first year of the Biden presidency, h 312 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 1: an unprecedented historic number of Americans started new businesses. In fact, 313 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: it was higher than in any prior year on record. 314 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 1: Um it was higher for Hispanic entrepreneurs and and similarly 315 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 1: a record higher for Black entrepreneurs. And so we're seeing 316 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs of color really getting in the game as well. 317 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 1: It's a good story to tell. Bara Rama Murty. I 318 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 1: wish I had more time with your deputy Director of 319 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,959 Speaker 1: the White House National Economic Council on Bloomberg. I'm Joe Matthew. 320 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: Thanks for being with us on the fastest hour in politics. 321 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. You at World Headquarters in New York, 322 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: and we've got our signature panel as we hope to 323 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: have on days like these when the president is asked 324 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: about a recession. And that is what happened today after 325 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,719 Speaker 1: he announced the big ask for Ukraine thirty three billion dollars. 326 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 1: We discussed that with Ed Mills and it came with 327 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 1: a bit of questioning. I don't know if the Communications 328 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 1: Office planned this, but the President was asked about the 329 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: GDP reports today. The chances of this may be happening 330 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 1: twice serious have to be take a look and knowing 331 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:36,959 Speaker 1: it predictating recession. Now they're predicting their summer, predicting there 332 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: may be a recession in what Why did he I'm 333 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 1: not sure why he said that, Rick Davis, Genie Chanzano 334 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 1: with us, Rick, is that the answer you would have 335 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 1: advised him, No, talk about putting a punctuation mark on 336 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: otherwise badness? Right, Uh, nothing to worry about today, but 337 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 1: next year could be awful. Yeah. And and why go there? Um, 338 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: Why try to predict a recession when you've you've actually 339 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 1: got some underlying good news to talk about today. Uh, 340 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 1: in the GDP numbers and stick to the positive. And Uh, 341 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 1: I don't know, I mean maybe this was just another 342 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,120 Speaker 1: Biden is um We've seen this before and we're gonna 343 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 1: see it again. Genie, are we gonna get a recession 344 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 1: in three? I hope not? And you know I'm gonna 345 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: get one in two. You know, let's let's hope not. 346 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: But you know, I think the problem here is exactly 347 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 1: what you and ed we're talking about. Any time you 348 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: have to explain this, I can't tell you how many 349 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: people I heard today add nauseam talking about well, go 350 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 1: beyond the headline and look under the hood. You know, 351 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 1: those kinds of metaphors are are disastrous politically because what 352 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: they're saying is the thing that people are seeing and 353 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,919 Speaker 1: hearing and feeling. Don't worry about that, pay attention to 354 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: this complicated thing which explains why everything you're feeling is wrong. 355 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,199 Speaker 1: I mean, to a certain extent. It's like the difference 356 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:57,199 Speaker 1: between macro and microeconomics. I go by Hamburger. It's expensive. 357 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 1: You can tell me. Unemployment is you know, good, the 358 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: number is good, but it's meaningless to me. And that's 359 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 1: where I think the president has to really get to. 360 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 1: He's got to talk about I feel your pain, and 361 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,919 Speaker 1: we're here to address it. And this is how you know, 362 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,160 Speaker 1: I know that that's an uphill battle as to how. 363 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 1: But he's got to say he feels people's pain because 364 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,680 Speaker 1: you look at the polls, there's a lot of pain 365 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: out there. Well, it's supposed to be his uh, his 366 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 1: his strength, Rick is feeling your pain. Isn't that that 367 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 1: Joe Biden? You know? Yeah, Uncle Joe. I mean, empathy 368 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: is his strength. And uh and and yet I think 369 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: he's been disconnected from the economic population since this administration started. Um, 370 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: he's great on natural disasters, which I hate to say that, 371 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:48,120 Speaker 1: but he's responded well to them. But but on these 372 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 1: economic issues, he's just he's just seems to be forgetting 373 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 1: that people are impacted by this. It first started, you know, 374 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,639 Speaker 1: when he would ignore inflation, and now he's kind of 375 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: throwing recession out there is as some thing that's going 376 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:04,239 Speaker 1: to happen no matter what the administration does. Genie, as 377 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 1: you consider the messaging around this this g d P report, 378 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 1: does the White House need to prepare people for more 379 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: bad news this current quarter? They seem to be going 380 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 1: out of their way to talk about the upside on this, 381 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: and Ed Mills did too. I mean, look, consumers are 382 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: still spending that there are are still real signs of 383 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,400 Speaker 1: strength in our economy, despite what the markets have been 384 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: doing lately and despite the impact of this war. Yeah, 385 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: and I think you can do both. I think surrogates 386 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: can certainly say, here's the flip side of this, look 387 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 1: at there are positive signs. This isn't the whole story. 388 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: That's fine to say. At the same time, they have 389 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: to do both. They have to say, we know why. 390 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 1: The latest Gallop Show poll showed four and five people 391 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 1: rate the current economic conditions as fair or poor. Those 392 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: are big, big numbers. So yeah, say what's positive? Say 393 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 1: why you got to look beyond the headlines, but acknowledge 394 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 1: the pain people are feeling and tell them how you're 395 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 1: going to make it better. That's what they've got to 396 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: do with just a few months before the midterm. Well 397 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: how can you make it better? Rick? When if if 398 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: this is a global story. I asked Gina mc gena 399 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 1: McCarthy's Gina Romando about this earlier today. If this is 400 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,360 Speaker 1: supply chain and COVID, that's why we have inflation, that's 401 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: what the administration tells us. Add the war that makes 402 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 1: it worse. Do we run the risk of causing a recession? Rick? 403 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: Or how how likely is it that the FED causes 404 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 1: one with interest great hikes when this is this is 405 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: a recession or an inflation that's being prompted by different 406 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 1: factors than they have really ever dealt with. That's right. 407 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 1: And and we knew going into this cycle that it 408 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: was going to be the fight at the FED between 409 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 1: the guys on growth and the guys on fighting an inflation. 410 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 1: And and look, I mean the chairman's a growth guy. 411 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: I mean, so you've got the right people at at 412 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 1: the at the helm uh And but you're right, it 413 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: is a It is a global story, and part of 414 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: it is this lockdown in China. I mean, like you've 415 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: talked about, oh macrown and how that impacted us in 416 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: the first quarter of the war in a craze this quarter. Um. 417 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: But but there's been a tremendous impact of the global 418 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: economy by a self inflicted severe lockdown in China that 419 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,240 Speaker 1: is definitely going to affect the supply chain that has 420 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: been so difficult for us. So, Um. The fact that 421 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 1: the country's weather the storm as well as it has 422 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: is actually remarkable. It does little for the policy makers 423 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 1: to say that. But frankly, I'm sure the feed is 424 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,479 Speaker 1: looking this and looking at these numbers saying, wow, this 425 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: is great. We've still got growth um and I think 426 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,919 Speaker 1: they will manage uh, they're part of the portfolio to 427 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 1: ensure that that growth continues. Well, the question, I guess is, 428 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: what is that growth still going to be evident after 429 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: a half point next week basis points apparently the meeting 430 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: after that, Genie, I mean this, this will at some 431 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 1: point have heavy impacts. I'm assuming on consumer spending. It's 432 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,440 Speaker 1: got to work its way through the economy. And boy, 433 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,119 Speaker 1: I don't know, does that happen right around November? You know, 434 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 1: the worst timing, And that's what we keep hearing. You know, 435 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 1: the recession is not imminent, but look, you know a 436 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 1: few months from hours, people are saying one year from now. 437 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,919 Speaker 1: And even to have the President out there today, you know, 438 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 1: while he's you know, saying he's going to ask Congress 439 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 1: for thirty three billion dollars for Ukraine, he's answering questions 440 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: which get him into talking about a recession potentially. I mean, 441 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 1: the juxtaposition of those two things is really problematic for 442 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,879 Speaker 1: this White House. The money is needed for Ukraine, but 443 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,880 Speaker 1: you can bet people are going to start to ask questions. 444 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 1: This is a lot of money when the President is 445 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: at the same time talking about a recession next year. 446 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: Rick and Jeanie still with us ahead as Joe Mansion 447 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 1: swoops back in just in time to save the day. 448 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 1: We'll check markets on the way. This is Bloomberg. You're 449 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,400 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg. You sound on with Joe Matthew on 450 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Welcoming back the gentleman from West Virginia to 451 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 1: the conversation. Joe Mansions making news again. I was just 452 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 1: reading he's on the outs with the White House. They 453 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: didn't want to bother each other after the whole build 454 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 1: back Better fell apart. Now he's got a plan and 455 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: it's bipartisan. He says, to avoid the use of reconciliation, 456 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 1: even though it's likely Democrats will do that at some 457 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 1: point this year. As we discussed earlier this hour with 458 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: Ed Mills at Raymond James, there are opportunities and you 459 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: don't just walk away from them in politics. But Joe 460 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 1: Mansion has an idea here that you get a couple 461 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 1: of Republicans on board, you call it bipartisan. You don't 462 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 1: have to use reconciliation, and it's narrow energy and climate. 463 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:40,679 Speaker 1: And he's got some people listening here talking about a 464 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: new look at leases for drilling and more broadly, helping 465 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 1: to bridge the gap between the world we're in now 466 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,679 Speaker 1: burning fossil fuels and a world will eventually be in 467 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,199 Speaker 1: with renewables, but doing it in a way that doesn't 468 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,400 Speaker 1: cause well hundred dollar a barrel oil for the whole duration. 469 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 1: Here's Senator Mansion today. We need a two path system. Okay. 470 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:06,879 Speaker 1: You have to have being the climate and you have 471 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,639 Speaker 1: to have the reliability of the fossil. Those two go 472 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,360 Speaker 1: across sometime, could be five years, could be ten years 473 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: or whatever. You can't eliminate one before the other. If not, 474 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 1: you end up like Germany, you end up like Europe. 475 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 1: Problem there. What is it going anywhere? And can you 476 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:26,119 Speaker 1: get enough Republicans and holds enough Democrats to make this happen? 477 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 1: I wonder what the White House thinks about it. As 478 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 1: we reassemble the panel, Rick and Janie are here Bloomberg 479 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,200 Speaker 1: Politics contributors Rick Davis, Genie Chanzano. Is this the kind 480 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 1: of thing that at the White House they're all getting 481 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: another desks right now, Genie? Or is it good news 482 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 1: that they can work together again. You think it would 483 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: be good news, But I think so many people at 484 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: the White House, and so many Democrats quite frankly, feel 485 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 1: frustrated by their dealings with Joe Manchin that they aren't 486 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 1: willing to go there. I mean, you look at the 487 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 1: latest that just Bernie Sanders, and again unlikely he would 488 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 1: have gone there anyways. But but what he has to say, 489 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 1: you know, talking about you know, sort of um, the 490 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 1: the idea that he felt torpedoed and the idea that 491 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,919 Speaker 1: this is no way to behave as a colleague, that 492 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 1: this was arrogant of mansion and cinema. You know, those 493 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 1: are the kind of words, you know, burned is what 494 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: you're hearing. So, you know, I do think it's a 495 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 1: long shot to think you could get something done. I mean, 496 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 1: do I think they should. Absolutely, they should take what 497 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 1: they can get and go forward. That means Mansion and 498 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: Cinema have to be on board. But but it doesn't 499 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: seem at least that they have the will to do 500 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,880 Speaker 1: that in the next few weeks. Rick, are you rolling 501 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: your eyes or is this actually the kind of development 502 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 1: that you're looking for to get Congress working again. Yeah, 503 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: I was kind of expecting a couple of things. One 504 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 1: mansion has been against so many things. You knew he 505 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,360 Speaker 1: was going to come up with something to before, right, 506 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,399 Speaker 1: you can't you can't be doctor No in the Senate forever. 507 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 1: And so I'm sure he sees this moment where the 508 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,640 Speaker 1: Biden administration, always a foe of fossil fuels, has now 509 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: had to go out to the industry and say give 510 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,880 Speaker 1: me more, give me more. We're desperate, and and so 511 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 1: you know, I think he wants to try to embed 512 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,159 Speaker 1: that into something that he can bring Democrats along with 513 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 1: by pairing it with with climate. And and this administration 514 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 1: has done very little with climate so far. So he's 515 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 1: kind of hitting the seam. It's not gonna last forever. 516 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 1: A lot of it is tied to these global events 517 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,119 Speaker 1: in the Ukraine and Russia. But um, I think it 518 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: was smart on his part at least have something out 519 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,879 Speaker 1: there where people could react to him rather than him 520 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: reacting to this administration. Certainly good for him. Uh. Does 521 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:33,919 Speaker 1: the White House have to make a choice, though, Rick, 522 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 1: between this and using reconciliation to do really some pretty 523 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 1: similar things. No, they don't have to trade anything. Um, 524 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 1: they should, they should have the the attitude let a 525 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 1: thousand flowers bloom, right, I mean, like we've got ideas, 526 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: you've got ideas. Let's see what gets sticky. Um. They 527 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: right now that their number one thing isn't you know, 528 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 1: like we're talking earlier inflation and and and getting that 529 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 1: under control. That's what's the political uh requirement. But all 530 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 1: these other issues, domestic issues, healthcare, all the things that 531 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 1: this administration promised, they should they should be encouraging every 532 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:11,240 Speaker 1: member to come up with ideas, either through reconciliation or 533 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 1: through regular order. Life Mansion is talking about as a 534 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 1: lot of progressives, Genie want to see this president use 535 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 1: executive action more to get this stuff done, Like don't 536 00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,720 Speaker 1: even pick up the phone, just write the document, you know, 537 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 1: by yourself as sharpie like the last guy, and make 538 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 1: it happen already. Yeah, and and this is what we've 539 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 1: seen politically in the modern era. The problem is, of course, 540 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: that the executive actions are more limited, and they're more 541 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 1: easily overturned, both in the courts and also if Joe 542 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:41,479 Speaker 1: Biden isn't president in you know, or whoever comes in, 543 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 1: they're easy to overturn. You're far better off moving this 544 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: through regular legislation and you know, I think one thing 545 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:52,120 Speaker 1: that Joe Mansion could get on board with and and 546 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 1: and move forward with, and certainly the White House could 547 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 1: is to talk about moving on the l n G 548 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 1: plants in terms of something like security. You know, this 549 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:02,840 Speaker 1: is something they need to do as we look at 550 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 1: what was happening in Poland and Bulgaria the other day, 551 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 1: potentially Germany and Italy, those are permitted already. If the 552 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 1: President could fast track some of those, they could get 553 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 1: certainly a lot of bipartisan support on something like that. 554 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 1: It would be skinny, It would be a skinny energy package, 555 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: but it would be something to hang their hat on 556 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: and it would be a positive in terms of the economy. 557 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 1: I haven't had a chance to ask you both about 558 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 1: the Ukraine request. Is that thirty three billion uh go 559 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 1: through with a with an easy clean vote, Rick or 560 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:32,920 Speaker 1: is there going to be a lot of stuff attached 561 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 1: to it. We're hearing about COVID funding, We're hearing about 562 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: Title forty two funding. We're hearing about a lot of 563 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 1: things right now. Yeah. Well, that Title forty two is 564 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: part of the executive actions that the Biden administration is 565 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: taking that the progressives wanted and ered a disaster with 566 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 1: the public, So be careful what you asked for. Um. 567 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 1: This thirty three billion should go through literally before the 568 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: end of this week, if it's not tied to COVID 569 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 1: funding or any of these other issues. Uh. If Schumer's smart, 570 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 1: he declares a win, gets this money moving, and controls 571 00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 1: his caucus to not try to attach these additional COVID 572 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 1: funds uh. And and he can get something done really quick, 573 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 1: and the President will look like he's got good leadership, 574 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 1: and it will give us Lensky a win, and it 575 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 1: will drive the Russians crazy. And of course that's what 576 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 1: we love to do, is drive the Russians crimy to 577 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 1: watch it pass without a blink of an eye. Here, 578 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,120 Speaker 1: but Genie, this might be their only opportunity to get 579 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 1: that money. I mean you you do have some Republicans involved. Well, 580 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 1: I guess by the one by the name of Mitt Romney, 581 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 1: you helped to craft that deal to get at least 582 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,320 Speaker 1: half the money that the White House is asking for 583 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 1: for COVID. Yeah, you know, but you know you're talking 584 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 1: about the terms clean and the US Congress out of 585 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: my mind. I don't mean to make you laugh. This 586 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 1: is the comedy portion of the broadcast. You're you're very optimistic, 587 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,560 Speaker 1: and you know, God willing it would go through. We 588 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 1: heard you know that, We know that the President is saying, 589 00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 1: you know, put it through, you know, by itself in 590 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 1: a clean way, as you say, um. But I can 591 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: bet that they are going to try to attach a 592 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,840 Speaker 1: lot to it and it is going. You know, anybody 593 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 1: who thinks this thing is going to get through in 594 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 1: a week, I hope it does. But that is an 595 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 1: uphill battle in this Congress. People are going to be 596 00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,680 Speaker 1: adding a lot to it, and it's a big ask. 597 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 1: It's double what has been asked before it's needed. But 598 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 1: there's going to be things at it in there. We 599 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 1: spent some time earlier talking about the Mansion on the Hill, 600 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 1: and I've got to ask you guys about this story 601 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 1: once again. Another take on the potential the possibility of 602 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 1: Joe Mansion switching parties. This one comes from the duo 603 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 1: that wrote the book of the two New York Times 604 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 1: reporters wrote the book that that exposed the tape with 605 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:38,479 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy, Jonathan Martin Alexander Burns. Apparently, at least this 606 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:43,440 Speaker 1: is their reporting. Uh, Joe Mansion told John Thune that 607 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,720 Speaker 1: that he would in fact consider switching parties if Thune 608 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 1: became majority leader. Today he shot that down. Here's what 609 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 1: Joe Mansion said. These are all my friends on both 610 00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 1: sides of the John Thune is a most decent human 611 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 1: being and a good friend of mine. But no, they 612 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 1: know where I'm at. And Ms McConnell as He's tried 613 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,600 Speaker 1: everything him I possible. At the bottom line is I 614 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 1: am West Virginia Democrat. I'm not a Washington Democrat. Genie, 615 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 1: What does that mean? What's the difference between a West 616 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 1: Virginia Democrat and a Washington Democrat? You know? And Joe Mansions? 617 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,000 Speaker 1: You know, world, it is somebody who sticks to their 618 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,720 Speaker 1: guns despite being sort of ostracized from much of the 619 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,520 Speaker 1: energy of the party on the left. But of course, 620 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: you know, why would Joe Mansion at this point switch. 621 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 1: He's got all the power, He's the person everybody is 622 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 1: talking about. It would be, you know, the height of 623 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,200 Speaker 1: insanity to switch now. Maybe another time, but right now 624 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 1: he's got Washington in the palm of his hand, is 625 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 1: Genie right on that one? Rick? And as a Republican, 626 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:41,960 Speaker 1: would you love to see him maybe just step over 627 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 1: a little bit closer. Yeah, Look, I'd love him to 628 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 1: be a Republican. A West Virginia Democrat is a Republican. 629 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:53,280 Speaker 1: That's just code. And so, um, I think I think 630 00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,000 Speaker 1: that it would be great for him to be here. 631 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 1: But but that agenda, the McConnell agenda, would be to 632 00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 1: just stop everything that Biden is doing. And I do 633 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 1: think there's a part of Mansion that wants to get 634 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 1: something done, and he knows the only way is something 635 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:09,200 Speaker 1: done is with the full backing of the Democratic leadership 636 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 1: in the White House. They still have the numbers to 637 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,799 Speaker 1: pass legislation and signed it into law, and the Republicans 638 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,240 Speaker 1: can't give him that. Maybe I should have asked you first, 639 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 1: is John Thune ever going to be Majority leader? Uh? Sure, 640 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: he decided to run for re election, which was not 641 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:29,680 Speaker 1: a uh a certainty at the beginning of this year. 642 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,359 Speaker 1: And Mitch McConnell, you know, uh, nobody knows how long 643 00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 1: he'll want to serve as majority leader. But that's that's 644 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:40,640 Speaker 1: the succession plan. That's the succession plan. What does that 645 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:44,880 Speaker 1: mean for Chuck Schumer? Genie? You know, Um, Chuck Schumer 646 00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 1: has got to keep the Senate if if he wants 647 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,319 Speaker 1: to be a majority leader. Um and you know, minority leader. 648 00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,239 Speaker 1: I mean, does he does he keep the job in 649 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,399 Speaker 1: that instance? You know, I think he likely will. I'm 650 00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:58,919 Speaker 1: not sure. There's a lot of other people that are, 651 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,600 Speaker 1: you know, vying for that right now. But you know, 652 00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,960 Speaker 1: it's it's a hard year and I think, you know, 653 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,399 Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer has had a really really difficult time. He's 654 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,240 Speaker 1: had some wins. We got to give him that, the 655 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,080 Speaker 1: you know, first majority leader from New York in history, 656 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,399 Speaker 1: but he's had a tough time in the last year. 657 00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,080 Speaker 1: He's got a couple of tough weeks ahead of him 658 00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,799 Speaker 1: as well. A great conversation with Rick and Genie. Rick, 659 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,279 Speaker 1: good luck with everything. This weekend, they've got the big 660 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:29,759 Speaker 1: Sedona Summit kicking off at the McCain Institute. Genie will 661 00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:31,359 Speaker 1: be back with us tomorrow and I'll meet you here 662 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,919 Speaker 1: as well. On the Fastest Hour in Politics. From World 663 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 1: Headquarters in New York, I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg