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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go there throwing in so spect.

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Speaker 3: We're saying it's a cash toto.

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Speaker 1: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull,

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Speaker 3: and we are under way.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am Evan Abrams

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Speaker 2: and I am joined as always on our recap episode

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Speaker 2: off of a Crazy Wild The sleeve wasn't fantastic, and

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Speaker 2: then the games happened, which absolutely insane day. I am

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Speaker 2: joining as always by Brandon Anderson. Brandon, what's up? How

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Speaker 2: are you men?

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Speaker 3: Man?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you said it like it felt like we got

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Speaker 4: a lot of nonsense from games, but then we got

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Speaker 4: to these moments in games, especially the Witching Hour in

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Speaker 4: the early set, just some crazy endings and then Man

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Speaker 4: Monster Monster saquon game tonight.

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Speaker 3: I needed this game tonight.

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Speaker 4: I was struggling on the picks but came through with

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Speaker 4: the first half under and the Eagles hit got back

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Speaker 4: to just barely under even on the day despite going

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Speaker 4: like six and sixteen in the app for minus one

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Speaker 4: unit or something. So that was a very topsy turvy

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Speaker 4: day for my best bets got a couple of those

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Speaker 4: long shots and escalators missed. No more first quarterbacks for me.

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Speaker 4: I'm retired from first quarterbats. That did not go well.

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Speaker 4: It was a wild day. I'm ready to talk some football.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a wild day. And like you said, the first

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Speaker 2: half under which Raybaun was on, a bunch of us

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Speaker 2: were on. So good hit there. And then the game

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Speaker 2: goes over, which even feels better. But let's talk about

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Speaker 2: that Sunday night football, Philly at the Rams, and obviously

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Speaker 2: the Eagles cover the short spread thirty seven to twenty.

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Speaker 2: Game flies over at the end there with all of

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Speaker 2: the Saquon stuff. But let's just kind of go one

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Speaker 2: by one here. So the game opens with the kyn

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Speaker 2: Williams fumble, and anyone who's watched Sean McVay before says

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Speaker 2: to themselves, all right, well are we gonna see Blake

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Speaker 2: Orum like this happened awfully early and then obviously never

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Speaker 2: seen Blake krum Kyron gets the majority of the carries

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Speaker 2: thirteen seven and a half. Both teams looked alright with

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Speaker 2: a touchdown drive or so, and then the second half

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Speaker 2: starts and literally the game wasn't the same again. Saquon

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Speaker 2: seventy yard touchdown out of the second half. Then we

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Speaker 2: saw three straight touchdown drives, but twenty seven fourteen Eagles

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Speaker 2: are up and the Rams missed the field goal and

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Speaker 2: then the game was just basically over. So the one

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Speaker 2: thing I think that needs to be discussed, So Saquon

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Speaker 2: Barkley has two hundred and fifty five rushing yards in

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Speaker 2: this game. That is the second most in a night

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Speaker 2: game in terms of what I found. Sean Alexander in

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Speaker 2: two thousand and one had two sixty six. That is it.

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Speaker 2: And here's the real discussion that's going to be happening

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Speaker 2: on Monday morning, which is the MVP market. So Saquon

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Speaker 2: Barkley this morning before the games was sixty five to

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Speaker 2: one to win the MVP. He is now the third

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Speaker 2: choice at plus six point fifty. It is josh Allen,

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Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson Saquon Barkley right now in the odds, and

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Speaker 2: then after that you have to go pretty much to

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Speaker 2: Jared Goff, who is now after Saquon at seven to one,

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Speaker 2: Mahomes at eight to one, and then you get to

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Speaker 2: Herbert at thirty three to one out of the question.

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Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley is minus three to twenty now to an

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Speaker 2: offensive Player of the Year. So everything just shifting with

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Speaker 2: this massive, massive game. And I mean, if you look

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Speaker 2: at his stats first year on the team, most rushing

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Speaker 2: yards we've ever seen from a guy moved over to

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Speaker 2: another squad like this, five hundred and forty plus rushing

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Speaker 2: yard games, four multi touchdown games. And to me, really

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Speaker 2: the craziest numbers are what he's done this year in

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Speaker 2: the second half, in the second half of games, nine

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Speaker 2: hundred and eight rushing yards right now. In second in

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Speaker 2: that category is Derrick Henry with six eighty three over

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Speaker 2: two hundred plus more rushing yards in the second half,

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Speaker 2: and that's with both of his seventy yard rushes tonight.

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Speaker 2: So and then the funny stats which I feel like

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Speaker 2: have to be discussed here, which is Saquon Barkley more

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Speaker 2: rushing yards in the Giants not only today but this season.

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Speaker 2: H So you just look into that decision more. But Brandon,

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Speaker 2: in terms of Saquon, in terms of the markets themselves,

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Speaker 2: what do you have to say here?

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Speaker 4: I saw Saquon has a higher yards per carry on

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Speaker 4: the season than the Giants have yards per passing attempt. Also,

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Speaker 4: that's another So not a great day for the Giants

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Speaker 4: out here, Tommy DeVito, not a great day.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to that one. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the Saquon MVP thing is crazy. Six sixty

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Speaker 4: five to one down to six point five to one.

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Speaker 4: Basically we took ninety percent of his odds away on

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Speaker 4: the day and look, probably a lot of that is liability.

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Speaker 4: Probably that's just bets coming in tonight as the game

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Speaker 4: is happening. The crazy thing is we kind of keep

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Speaker 4: sitting here saying I've been saying, I don't know if

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Speaker 4: I think it's Lamar. I don't know if I think

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Speaker 4: Josh can finish it. But I don't know who to

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Speaker 4: tell you who to bet maybe at Saquan, Like that's

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Speaker 4: I'm never gonna tell you to better running back. Certainly,

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Speaker 4: I'm not gonna tell you a better running back at

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Speaker 4: plus six fifty at the peak price he's going to be.

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Speaker 4: I can't do it now. Like if you bought the

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Speaker 4: ticket this morning, congrats, go to Vegas, you know, like

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Speaker 4: set up shop, get your lottery ticket in. Obviously you'd

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Speaker 4: love to have a sixty five to one ticket right now,

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Speaker 4: given the momentum on where things are at, you can't

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Speaker 4: invest right now. You can't buy the plus six fifty

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Speaker 4: after this game over three hundred scrimmage yards. The thing

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Speaker 4: that's hard to part is here. He keeps busting off

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Speaker 4: these long, like seventy yard runs where he just gets

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Speaker 4: to the line and you know, the line blocks so well,

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Speaker 4: they're so run heavy. He gets through one step untouched

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Speaker 4: sometimes and he's just gone, like the talent takes over

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Speaker 4: from there. We haven't seen a running back this talented

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Speaker 4: with a running centric team and line that talented that

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Speaker 4: often before. So I wore my Vikings jersey tonight, but

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Speaker 4: I wore my Adrian Peterson jersey because that's the last

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Speaker 4: running back or non quarterback to an MVP, and that

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Speaker 4: is the sort of numbers that Sequon is putting up

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Speaker 4: right now.

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Speaker 3: I think the.

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Speaker 4: Path is there, and if it were to be a

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Speaker 4: running back, they kind of break the rules of some

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Speaker 4: of the other things too. They don't necessarily have to

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Speaker 4: have like the QB wins and some of those other things.

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Speaker 4: So you know, I again, I'm not going to tell

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Speaker 4: you to bet it, but I can't say i'd be

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Speaker 4: loving having to fade it right now either. I still

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Speaker 4: think that MVP race is open. The Eagles have a

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Speaker 4: real shot to be the one seed in the NFC.

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Speaker 4: The way they're playing right now, they're just steamrolling teams.

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Speaker 4: We've talked about that their defense looked awesome tonight. I

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Speaker 4: think we're going to get all the focus on Saquon

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Speaker 4: and the offense as goes they look, but that defense

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Speaker 4: against they're really talented Rams offense like they got a

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Speaker 4: lot of pressure up front, they held them in check.

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Speaker 4: The Rams look early on like they're moving the ball,

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Speaker 4: and then the Eagles kind of adjusted after quarter and

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Speaker 4: just you know, turn the faucet off for the most part.

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Speaker 4: So just to me, Saquon's the fun story. The Eagles

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Speaker 4: are the real story. Like the Eagles, to me, you

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Speaker 4: could just make the case that they're the best team

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Speaker 4: in the league right now.

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Speaker 3: And I think.

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Speaker 4: We are seeming to be steamrolling toward an Eagles Lions

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Speaker 4: NFC championship for the ages. That would be a really

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Speaker 4: fun game with pretty similar and you know, similarly built teams.

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Speaker 4: To me, that is the class of the NFC. And

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Speaker 4: I don't know who else is even close. And I

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Speaker 4: know my Vikings. I know the Packers and other other

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Speaker 4: teams record wise that are close. I think the Eagles

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Speaker 4: are making a real push here and they're gonna be

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Speaker 4: tough for anyone to be at this point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't wait to see what the total would

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Speaker 2: be on a Lions Eagles NFC championship game. That would

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Speaker 2: be fun. I tweeted this out a few minutes ago.

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Speaker 2: But Eagles with AJ Brown eight to no straight up

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Speaker 2: this season, they're averaging now like thirty one into per game,

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Speaker 2: and even you think about their it just makes them

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Speaker 2: so much more dangerous. Not only have you added Saquon,

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Speaker 2: but when AJ Brown plays, when when you have this

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Speaker 2: multi level offense to thirty five and ten with AJ

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Speaker 2: Brown active, one and three without him, I mean it

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Speaker 2: gets a little bit more complex than that, but still

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Speaker 2: just really crazy. And the Eagles, you know, there's seven

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Speaker 2: to zero last seven games and Jalen Hurts is eighteen

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Speaker 2: touchdowns and one interception. When the line's playing that good,

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Speaker 2: Saquon is playing that good, and they're not turning it over,

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Speaker 2: it's near impossible to beat them. And looking forward, they

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Speaker 2: get Baltimore next week. So if you want another moment

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Speaker 2: for you know Saquon to either step up or Lamar

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Speaker 2: to step up.

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Speaker 4: You know, that's like as a pivot if you don't

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Speaker 4: if you don't want to buy the Saquon hype and

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Speaker 4: if you want to fade it rather than pivoting an

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Speaker 4: MVP because it's the only a third favorite, maybe playing

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Speaker 4: some of those Derrick Henry, like rushing yardage leader.

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Speaker 2: Or I mean, Henry's one hundred to one to an

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Speaker 2: MVP right now, So I mean, if you think there's

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Speaker 2: even a shot, I mean based off he's right there

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Speaker 2: in yardage, I mean everything is pretty much even entering

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Speaker 2: a matchup head to head, one guy's plus six fifty

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Speaker 2: one guys one hundred to one. So take it for

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Speaker 2: what it is. All right, let's move on here. Dallas

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Speaker 2: at Washington is our second game. I didn't think I

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Speaker 2: had this second enduring the day, but it definitely ended

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Speaker 2: up that way. Dallas upsets Washington thirty four to twenty six.

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Speaker 2: As a ten and a half point underdog goes over

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Speaker 2: forty four and a half. This was Dallas's biggest upset

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Speaker 2: since twenty ten. They don't really get this big of

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Speaker 2: an underdog often, but yes, twenty ten was their last time,

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Speaker 2: and I thought this was interesting. This was their first

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Speaker 2: big upset for Mike McCarthy, who was two and eighteen

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Speaker 2: straight up as a dog of seven plus and zero

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Speaker 2: to twelve above a touchdown, So gets that first win today.

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Speaker 2: What do you got here, Brandon?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, one of my worst look ahead picks of the year.

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Speaker 3: Let's start there.

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Speaker 4: This was not good on me. I had Washington minus

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Speaker 4: nine and a half. To me, here's my takeaway. I

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Speaker 4: got the CLV, but sometimes you gotta get more than

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Speaker 4: the CLV. I got on the right side of the ten.

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Speaker 4: Ten's not such a big key number. Got up to eleven.

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Speaker 4: At one point I thought, if the game had gone

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Speaker 4: well last week, maybe we'd get towards thirteen. It was

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Speaker 4: never happening. It didn't matter which one of those numbers

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Speaker 4: you got. This game was never going that. When I

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Speaker 4: do think Washington should have won, probably it probably should

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Speaker 4: have won by a point if they hit their extra points.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to that. But yeah, just not the right side.

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Speaker 4: Lattimore. They traded for him. He still has not played

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Speaker 4: for them yet. Their offensive line has been banged up.

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Speaker 4: We might have hit the cliff cliff here, but I

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Speaker 4: think there's a lot more than just Kingsbury, than just

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Speaker 4: James Daniels, but one of the wildest endings you'll see

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Speaker 4: all year. A couple of these games today like to

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Speaker 4: me the story of the football today. It was just

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Speaker 4: that crazy window of the crazy endings. So I kind

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Speaker 4: of had just a little bit of play by play

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Speaker 4: on a couple of these just to kind of rehash

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Speaker 4: some of the ridiculousness that we saw so on this game.

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Speaker 4: If you hate special teams, this was the game for you.

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Speaker 4: So let me tell you just basically special teams. Here's

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Speaker 4: what you miss. Washington blocks the field goal on the

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Speaker 4: first drive. Brand Abrey, like the god of kickers right now,

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Speaker 4: gets blocked. Next drive, hits the upbreak. So we're already

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Speaker 4: off to a great start. Austin Sebert, he's the Washington kicker.

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Speaker 4: He misses a fifty one yard field goal short. He

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Speaker 4: missed the field goal short, a fifty yard er.

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Speaker 3: What are we doing?

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Speaker 4: It's twenty twenty four. Dallas gets a punt block. We're

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Speaker 4: not even a halftime yet, We're already in special teams.

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Speaker 4: Just like hear zone settle in. We're just seeing started.

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Speaker 4: Washington scores touchdown start the second half. They miss the

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Speaker 4: extra point. Seebert miss another one Dallas. They get a

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Speaker 4: field goal. It's thirteen to nine with eight minutes left

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Speaker 4: in this game. If you bet the under, I'm I

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Speaker 4: don't know what to tell you, Like I'm so sorry

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Speaker 4: for everything you've ever done wrong in life. It's about

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Speaker 4: to get ugly. Washington fumbles the next play. Dallas scores

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Speaker 4: twenty to nine. We're gonna go to Washington drive. They

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Speaker 4: get the two to twenty seventeen. Okay, so we're getting

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Speaker 4: a good game. It's interesting, more special teams. Washington kicks off.

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Speaker 4: Cavante Turpin rubles the ball at the four yard line.

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Speaker 4: He like lets the ball bounce. It does this weird spin.

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Speaker 4: Somebody posted that looked like he pressed the wrong button

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Speaker 4: on the control, like he spun the wrong direction, and

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Speaker 4: he like confused all the defenders. And that dude's fast,

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Speaker 4: and that dude's gone ninety nine yard touchdown return. They're

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Speaker 4: up ten again. Washington gets a field goal, a positive

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Speaker 4: special teams play.

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Speaker 3: Look of that. They get a stop.

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Speaker 4: They get the ball back with twenty one seconds left

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Speaker 4: on there on fourteen and Jane Daniels throws another hail Mary.

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Speaker 4: He gets Terry McLaurin for what like an eighty four

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Speaker 4: eighty six yard touchdown. Not really hail Mary more of McLaurin.

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Speaker 4: After the play, they're down seven, so they get the

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Speaker 4: game tying touchdown. Oh wait, no they don't. Austin Siebert

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Speaker 4: lines up for the game tying extra point and shanks it.

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Speaker 4: So we get that again. And as that's happening, and

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Speaker 4: as the announcers are in shock of what's going down,

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Speaker 4: they literally sat on the broadcast. This is the worst

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Speaker 4: special team's game in history. On the next play, Washington

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Speaker 4: tries an onside and it gets received by Janya Thomas

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Speaker 4: and returned for a touchdown on special teams on the

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Speaker 4: on side kick. So if you're paying attention, that's the

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Speaker 4: end of the game. We got a blockfield goal, block punt,

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Speaker 4: three missed field goals, two missed extra points, two kick

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Speaker 4: return touchdowns, and you know, we're almost of the season.

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Speaker 3: Partridge in a pear three two.

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Speaker 4: It was the whole thing. It was ridiculous. I mentioned

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Speaker 4: the cliff wall. We're at the rookie wall. Maybe on

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Speaker 4: Jane daniels first five games of the season, he led

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Speaker 4: the league in EPA plus completion over expected from week

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Speaker 4: six forward twenty first, that is a huge drop off.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if it's the rib injury bothering him.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if it's the Cliff Kingsbury Wall, our

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Speaker 4: old man that you know, the lonesome loser. Drop that

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Speaker 4: in there.

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Speaker 3: Hell you head about the loads loser. He's a lois

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Speaker 3: about He's still.

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Speaker 4: Can sup shine Washington three game losing streak, heartbreakers to

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh and Dallas. Now they get destroyed by the Eagles

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Speaker 4: in between seven and five.

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Speaker 3: The schedules forgiving.

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Speaker 4: They got Titan Saints, next Eagles again, then Falcons, Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: I think they're okay.

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Speaker 4: It's probably them Tampa or some NFC West team. If

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Speaker 4: you are a fan of the Rams, the forty nine Ers,

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Speaker 4: the Buccaneers, this is the team you're chasing now. This

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Speaker 4: is the spot in the NFC. It's looking pretty open.

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Speaker 4: Daniels did run seven times for seventy four yards in

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Speaker 4: a score, but two interceptions, four sacks. It's not looking

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Speaker 4: great out here. It did not look good on my

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Speaker 4: look ahead. Did not looking on special teams, that's for sure.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: The two notes here three to three at a halftime

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Speaker 2: doesn't usually ever get to sixty points. That's and then

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Speaker 2: the second note is, and you talked about Jayden Daniels,

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Speaker 2: the offensive rookie of the year, market ready Jadeen Daniels

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Speaker 2: minus one point fifty bow Nicks plus one twenty five. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: welcome to week thirteen.

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Speaker 3: We're going there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is welcome to the new age. All right?

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Speaker 2: Next game, Minnesota at Chicago. It's the Jersey game. You've

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Speaker 2: got it on. Minnesota beat Chicago thirty twenty seven in

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Speaker 2: overtime pushes the minus three. A lot of three and

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Speaker 2: a half's out there, so some important late touchdowns for

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Speaker 2: the Bears goes over thirty nine and a half. I

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Speaker 2: think the story still Caleb Sachs is forty four now

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Speaker 2: through eleven games, and today only three sacks is probably

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Speaker 2: the way to look at it, because they did put

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Speaker 2: up a bunch of points.

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Speaker 3: They did.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if you got the Bears early in the week,

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Speaker 4: you got the cover. If you wait until just before kickoff,

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Speaker 4: hope you got the three and a half. Still, depending

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Speaker 4: on the three, where things are at lill drama even

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Speaker 4: in overtime too, right, the Vikings are driving and kind

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Speaker 4: of settle for a field goal from around like the

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Speaker 4: ten or twelve. You know a lot of betters just

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Speaker 4: hoping they get in the end zone and cover this

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Speaker 4: bread either way on the Viking side of things.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have the first quarter bet.

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Speaker 4: So I'm not gonna mention all these but here's where

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Speaker 4: this went to ride the Vikings. The whole thing is,

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Speaker 4: Vikings get the good script out, you know, they get

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Speaker 4: the scripted plays, So they get the ball. They marched

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Speaker 4: right down the field. I'm driving home from church. I'll

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Speaker 4: put the radio on here in Chicago ESPN one thousands.

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Speaker 4: I'm like, all right, let's check in on my first

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Speaker 4: quarter bet. I get one play, I get a mid play.

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Speaker 4: I turn on the radio into here, and that is

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Speaker 4: Aaron Jones first fumble in one hundred and sixty seven

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Speaker 4: carries career against the Bears, and I'm like, give me

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Speaker 4: a break. He fumbles on the two yard line. The

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Speaker 4: Vikings end up scoring the first play of the second quarter.

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Speaker 4: Just to rub salt in the wound enough with the

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Speaker 4: small sample first quarterbats failed experiment.

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Speaker 3: My apologies.

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Speaker 4: Vikings are up twenty four to ten late, not normal

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Speaker 4: for the Viking just be dominating in Chicago. Then they

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Speaker 4: get stopped on fourth down in Bear's territory, get a

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Speaker 4: long Bear touchdown. Drata was fine, that's just what you

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Speaker 4: want to do. Choup the clock. The Vikings go eleven to plays.

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Speaker 4: They get a field goal, back up eleven and then

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Speaker 4: I happened to my notes, twenty one seconds left. I

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Speaker 4: think that the there was the Washington touchdown was twenty

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Speaker 4: one seconds. Also we get like two miracle long touchdowns

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Speaker 4: with that same amount of time.

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Speaker 3: They get a two pointer to DJ Moore.

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Speaker 4: They recover the on sidekick because the Vikings guy got

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Speaker 4: it hit on his foot. More special teams fun twenty

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Speaker 4: seven yards to DJ Moore guy showing up. They get

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Speaker 4: the field goal they got overtime, couldn't do much there.

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Speaker 4: John Parker Romo, a guy definitely had heard of a

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Speaker 4: few weeks ago, hits the walkoff winner for the Vikings.

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Speaker 4: We played the DJ Moore Escalator, one of the few

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Speaker 4: bets that did go well today. Got the over four

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Speaker 4: and a half easy, got to seven in overtime plus

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Speaker 4: two forty five. Wish the two pointer would account it

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Speaker 4: as well. We could have taken the eighth, but that

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Speaker 4: one doesn't officially count for the stats. They play on Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 4: so if you like the Dj Moore escalator. You might

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Speaker 4: go back to that. You mentioned the sacks with Cave Williams.

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Speaker 4: I think he made some really good throws too. The

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Speaker 4: sack definitely are a problem, but he's hitting guys on stride.

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Speaker 4: He's dropping the ball in the bucket a few times.

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Speaker 4: He got out for a couple of nice runs. I

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Speaker 4: think if you're a Bears fan and you see these

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Speaker 4: last two weeks with the new offensive coordinator, you gotta

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Speaker 4: feel pretty good, like it's fine, it's fine to lose.

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Speaker 4: You want to beat the Vikings. It's a rival, but

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Speaker 4: you're just getting a better draft pick now. Anyways, what

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Speaker 4: matters is what Caleb is doing, and it looks a

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Speaker 4: lot better now. Jalen Johnson put Justin Jefferson in his pocket.

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Speaker 4: That's good for the Bears. Also, Minnesota nine and two,

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Speaker 4: but they've just beaten the Bears, Titans, Jaguars, Colts. I

381
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Speaker 4: don't know how excited you should be about nine to

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Speaker 4: two against that Effectively, their games left are one more

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Speaker 4: Bears game. Five other games against teams five hundred are better.

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Speaker 4: I'm hearing a lot of analysis this week from my

385
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Speaker 4: favorite podcast, listening to about just everybody's on the Vikings.

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Speaker 4: This is a real team. They're putting them in that

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Speaker 4: top of the NFC threat. And I know, I'm like

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Speaker 4: a sports nihilist. Everything is the worst at all times

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Speaker 4: for Minnesota fans. I can't be like fully clear on

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Speaker 4: this one. I just don't know if this team was

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Speaker 4: quite there offensively. They don't measure up. The defense is

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Speaker 4: really good, but let's see the defense against these teams,

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Speaker 4: the Packers against the Lions, and it's the tough schedule

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Speaker 4: coming up. Let's see how this holds up. See, Donald

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Speaker 4: seems to be kind of inching the wrong direction here.

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Speaker 4: So big win for Minnesota. Not great that you need

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Speaker 4: to get the overtime in a game that you were dominating.

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Speaker 4: That's kind of my takeaway here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard to love Minnesota when you don't love

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Speaker 2: the head of the ship, which is Donald. That's just

401
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Speaker 2: the way I look at it. Everything else around him

402
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,200
Speaker 2: seems just fine and they and the defense is obviously

403
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Speaker 2: very stingy. And love Flores, but I just don't love Donald.

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Speaker 2: And so I mean, the record's fantastic, and we'll talk

405
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Speaker 2: about Green Bay in a second, but all right, let's

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Speaker 2: get to my big stat of the day here, which

407
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Speaker 2: is kind of two folded. Big dogs today did have

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Speaker 2: a good day, so three and one against the spread

409
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 2: over a touchdown underdog. Now, we also talked about the

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Speaker 2: fact that double digit favorites were five and oh ats

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Speaker 2: entering today. Then Kansas City and one O Wasshington bost

412
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Speaker 2: lost against the spread. But here's the real note, I think,

413
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Speaker 2: which is fun. So NFL underdogs of six plus points

414
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Speaker 2: are now thirty six, twenty three and two ats this year.

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Speaker 2: Put the real stat on the money line. They've won

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Speaker 2: nineteen games, nineteen and forty three through twelve weeks. That

417
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Speaker 2: nineteen number for six plus point favorite underdogs is the

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Speaker 2: Motions two thousand and four. So big dogs not only

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00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 2: covering as we talked about thirty six and twenty three,

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Speaker 2: but winning out right. All right, let's go to the

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Speaker 2: best of the rest year. We're gonna go a little

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Speaker 2: bit quickly. Tennessee and Houston. Oh look another upset, so

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Speaker 2: good segue there. Tennessee upsets Houston thirty two to twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: Little fun safety at the end there as an eight

425
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Speaker 2: point underdog total goes over forty one. This trend just

426
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Speaker 2: tends to keep following CJ. Strad He is eight and

427
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 2: four ats as an underdog and now six and eleven

428
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 2: as a favorite. What do you got here, Brandon?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think probably our most entertaining game of the day,

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Speaker 4: Not that anyone gets really excited about a Texans Titans game,

431
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Speaker 4: but it was the one game that was back and forth,

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Speaker 4: like both teams scored every quarter in this one. Hilariously,

433
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 4: I had when we recorded best bets on Thursday, my

434
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 4: top bet that I wanted to make was the under

435
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 4: forty two in this game. And then I had it

436
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 4: in my notes from the night before, and by the

437
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 4: time we hit record, it was down to forty and

438
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 4: a half and I scratched it because we missed the

439
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 4: key numbers. Thank god, because what do we get fifty

440
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:25,640
Speaker 4: nine points in this game?

441
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 3: Here?

442
00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 4: Tennessee's terrible special teams gives up an eighty yard return

443
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 4: out of the opening play. Houston scored a touchdown the

444
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,880
Speaker 4: first play. Then I look up and suddenly Houston's down

445
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 4: seventeen to seven. Like Will Levis is slicing and dicing

446
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 4: this passing defense here. Stroud was terrible in this game.

447
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 4: He had a really bad reception led to a field goal.

448
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 4: He had at another batter interception that led to a

449
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 4: pick six the other way. Because Will Levis the gift

450
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 4: that keeps on giving, Houston kept giving up big, long touchdowns.

451
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 4: Chickaconquo gets the seventy yard touchdown and then the heartbreak fairburn.

452
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 4: Really good kicker usually misses a twenty eight yarder.

453
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 3: That should have tied it.

454
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,159
Speaker 4: Then they get the safety, like you said, you know,

455
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 4: with like the last minute or so, Will Levis throws

456
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 4: three touchdowns, one to the wrong team.

457
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 3: Kind of usual for him.

458
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 4: Yes, sacks seven times in the first half. Deneal Hunter

459
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 4: and Will Anderson combined for five sacks in this game.

460
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 4: They were all over the place. But the crazy thing

461
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 4: is you lost the game. You got gifted a seven

462
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 4: to zero lead on the first play of the game,

463
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 4: you have seven sacks and halftime, you're home against the Titans.

464
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 4: They got out yardaged by over one hundred yards. Here,

465
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 4: Texans offense did nothing outside a few Nico Colin plays.

466
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 4: Stroudo's bad mixing fourteen runs for twenty two yards. Just

467
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 4: nothing happening there. Look, we've talked about it before. I

468
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 4: think the Titans defense is pretty good. You can't do

469
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 4: this the Texans are seven to five. They've lost three

470
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 4: out of four, they've lost four out of six. However,

471
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 4: AFC South, we're still up two games plus a tiebreak

472
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 4: on the Colts. We'll see you still play Miami, you

473
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 4: still play the Chiefs, you'll still play the Ravens. I

474
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 4: think it's probably just an ugly four seed. I think

475
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 4: that's where we're at because nobody else is stepping up.

476
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 4: I haven't given up on the Colts yet. We'll get

477
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 4: back to that in the hot read, but I think

478
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 4: I have long since given up on the Texans.

479
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 3: This is just not a game you can give away

480
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 3: like this.

481
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 2: There's just no sense of consistency in anything Houston does,

482
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 2: especially with Stroud, game to game, and I think second year,

483
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 2: third year, it's what you're gonna look for. It's like,

484
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 2: can you do this weekend and week out versus you know,

485
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 2: some duds. Let's just call it and again. Levison, Tennessee

486
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 2: also put up thirty plus points, so kind of works

487
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 2: twelve ways, all right. Arizona Seattle. Seattle beats Arizona sixteen

488
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 2: to six, closes Seattle plus one at home as it

489
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 2: was bouncing around. As we talked about on the Best

490
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 2: Bets Pod early this week goes under forty six and

491
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 2: a half. I mean off the bat in the first half,

492
00:23:55,960 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 2: Gino five incompletions, played great, but got sacked times. He

493
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 2: was getting hit all over the place, and Arizona just

494
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 2: couldn't run the ball at all. There were seven of

495
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: twenty eight seven carries twenty eight yards in the first

496
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 2: half and they ended just fourteen of forty nine, three

497
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 2: point five yards per carry. Arizona couldn't run it. Seattle

498
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 2: couldn't run it. And then from Arizona's point of view,

499
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 2: McBride has a fantastic night, fifteen targets of the thirty

500
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 2: four total targets coming from Kyler, half the receptions twelve

501
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: of twenty four. Almost half of Kyler's yards came from

502
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 2: McBride as well. And then you kind of just saw

503
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 2: both quarterbacks do what they do. Kyler had a terrible

504
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 2: third quarter throw in the red zone that led to

505
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 2: a pick six going the other way. Then Gino comes

506
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 2: down throws a terrible red zone interception. It just back

507
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 2: and forth and back and forth, and I think we

508
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 2: both see it with these quarterbacks weekend, and we got

509
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 2: in the stat that I love So Kyler and Gino

510
00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 2: combined when their teams are above five hundred November or later,

511
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: so your team's good, you're trying to make a playoff run.

512
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 2: They are combined seven and twenty four against the spread

513
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 2: when their teams are above five hundred in November or later.

514
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 2: Kyler is now four and thirteen and Gino's three and eleven.

515
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 2: That's just what you get with these guys. They bring

516
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 2: you up to a certain point and they always let

517
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 2: you down. And that's kind of the way I fell here.

518
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 2: But listen, we talked about this in the Best Bets Todd.

519
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 2: Seattle's in first. They're in first in the division, so

520
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 2: the futures bet we were talking about it kind of

521
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 2: led up to this point. Now anything can happen from here,

522
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 2: but they're in prime position after that win, and especially

523
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 2: with the Rams lost tonight, it's a great day for Seattle.

524
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel good.

525
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 4: I did not play a lot of Seattle like I

526
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 4: had them in parlays and things. This week ended up

527
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 4: just not actually playing just the money liner side. The

528
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 4: reason I did that is because I am way over

529
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 4: invested already on Seattle futures, and this has been a

530
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 4: really good two week stratch for Seattle to beat San

531
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 4: fran and Arizona. That defense is looking really good. Offense

532
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: could do a little better, but I think the defense

533
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 4: was great today, great against all three division opponents now

534
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 4: coming out of the bye week, and so I think

535
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 4: Seattle stock out.

536
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 3: This team is rounding the form.

537
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 4: The reason I have some hope despite the Gino stats,

538
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 4: I don't dispute them. Gino's playing pretty well, but he

539
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 4: also throws that crippling interception.

540
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 3: I just think the defense and the coaching.

541
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,120
Speaker 4: Is really good and it's going to round into form

542
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 4: here and it seems to be doing that. So Seattle futures,

543
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 4: I think I have like three bet playoffs and the

544
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 4: division at this point, so I don't need any more

545
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 4: money line bets. They're already winning. Although I guess I

546
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 4: pretty much took one against the Jets next week. Seattle's

547
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 4: favorite now against the Jets. Thank god we move that

548
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 4: one in the right direction.

549
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, we still don't know what's going on in New

550
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 2: York in terms of the quarterback. At least, what you

551
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 2: know with Seattle is they're going to throw the ball

552
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 2: at Ton, so they should be able to put up

553
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: points even if they only did put up sixteen today?

554
00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 2: All right? Kansas City at Carolina, Kansas City barely survives

555
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 2: Carolina thirty twenty seven on a last second field goal.

556
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 2: Carolina covers the ten and a half, which is important

557
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 2: to a lot of people, and the total goes over

558
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 2: forty three. Really, the story here is just another close

559
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 2: win for Kansas City, who is now six and oh

560
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 2: straight up as a six plus point favorite this year,

561
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 2: and five and one against the spread in those games.

562
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 2: Just absolutely unbelievable, incomprehensible to be able to go six

563
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 2: and oh and five and one and still be where

564
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,360
Speaker 2: Kansas City is. What else do you have here, Brandon.

565
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, she just run a five game losing streak against

566
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,479
Speaker 4: the spread. Definitely not a stat you would expect from

567
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes and this team, from the team that we

568
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 4: were possibly betting to go undefeated as recently as a

569
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 4: week ago. Today, that's not what you're expecting. Twenty to

570
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 4: six and a half time, it seems like they are

571
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 4: pretty much in control. Even that they settled for two

572
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 4: red zone field goals, it could have been even more.

573
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 4: I looked at just the classic Panthers opponent team total

574
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 4: over in the first half, like I thought about that here.

575
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 4: It's telling that I didn't play that one because I

576
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 4: don't have enough confidence in the Chiefs offense. They hit it,

577
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 4: they got to twenty, so we might be back now

578
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 4: on the Panthers' stat I think the other side of

579
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 4: the ball is where I really have to have the

580
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 4: takeaway here. The Panthers scored twenty seven points on the

581
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 4: whole thing we've said is like, yeah, you know, Mahomes,

582
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 4: he'll run in the form later. Kelsey will get there.

583
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 4: That defense, though, the defense is so good. The Panthers

584
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 4: scored on six.

585
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 3: Out of eight drives on the Chiefs today.

586
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 4: Including with the game on the line. Basically they marched

587
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,719
Speaker 4: down five plays forty nine yards for a touchdown and

588
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 4: to two to tie the game up. Now they gave

589
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 4: it right back away. Mahomes did Mahomes things, scampers down

590
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 4: the sideline thirty three yards field goal.

591
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 3: Game over.

592
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 4: Kansity defense has been slowly fading. Jalen Watson, their young cornerback.

593
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 4: They lost him like a month ishe ago. They have

594
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: not been the same without him. The metrics have put

595
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 4: them closer to like maybe top ten, even closer to

596
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 4: league average, and I think after this game certainly like

597
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 4: Dvoa and some of those numbers that take opponent into

598
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: account are not gonna like what the Carolina Panthers just

599
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 4: did to them. I'm the defense is fading. This is

600
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 4: an underwhelming Chiefs team right now. I don't like having

601
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 4: to say that in no microphone because you can get

602
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 4: clipped into oblivion when Patrick Mahomes does Patrick Mahomes things.

603
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,719
Speaker 4: This just feels like last year's Eagles to me, like

604
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 4: the team that keeps pulling wins out of their butt

605
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 4: against not great opponents. And I know it just feels

606
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 4: like Mahomes will just do that forever because he has

607
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 4: done it for his entire career forever. Last year alone

608
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 4: we saw them not be a great looking team and

609
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 4: then they want to Super Bowl. Anyways, I don't know

610
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 4: what I'm supposed to do with this as an analyst,

611
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 4: like Patrick Mahomes just over everything and all the other

612
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 4: formulas break that sort of what it seems like. I

613
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 4: just feel like this is headed the wrong direction. I

614
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 4: know Pacheck go back soon. That should help with the

615
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 4: run game. Credit Carolina, Bryce Young looked really good this game.

616
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 4: I think they finally are getting him in the right

617
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 4: direction there. The metrics are pretty similar Bryce Young and

618
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 4: Pat Mahomes in this game. Again, not the best thing

619
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 4: you want to hear if you're betting on Patrick Mahomes

620
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 4: On the Chiefs, I don't know. I'm worried we get them.

621
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 4: Black Friday another huge favorite. We're probably gonna get a

622
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 4: similar looking game. That's kind of how these things go

623
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 4: against the division rival. I'm not touching that game. I

624
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 4: will be watching. I don't trust the Chiefs right now.

625
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 4: We're gonna have to see them do something to prove

626
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 4: me wrong, which, as I guess, just keep winning every

627
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 4: week no matter how bad it looks.

628
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, at the moment, that Black Friday game is up

629
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 2: to a thirteen point favorite. Since what we'll talk about

630
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: in a second. But Gardner Minshew is out for the

631
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 2: season with the broken collar bones. We still don't know

632
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 2: who's going to be starting on that Raiders side. Now,

633
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 2: speaking of Black Friday, before we move on here, a

634
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: quick announcement, Action Network is running back our annual Black

635
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 2: Friday sale, offering our best price of the year on

636
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,200
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637
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: a Pro subscriber, visit actionnetwork dot com. Slash Black Friday

638
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,680
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639
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,920
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640
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 2: the projections, from Brandon Anderson to Chris Raybon to Stuckey

641
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: and our whole Action Network team. That's Actionnetwork dot Com

642
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,200
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643
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 2: on Action Pro. All right, let's go quick end to

644
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 2: the slate here. So San Francisco green Bay. Green Bay

645
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: covers the spread easily thirty eight to ten. Is a

646
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 2: six and a half point favorite against the Niners total

647
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 2: those over forty four and a half. Really, San Francisco

648
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 2: without Brock Perdy, without Nick Bosa, without a bunch of

649
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 2: different weapons throughout the game, scores ten points in about

650
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: ten drives. That's really what you had here. San Francisco

651
00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 2: couldn't figure out much to do on the ground. CMC

652
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: had three carries for four yards at a half. All

653
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: of San Francisco's rush attempts was that in the first

654
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 2: half ends with eleven of thirty one, and then the

655
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: first half, San Francisco had less than ten minutes of

656
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 2: possession while Green Bay had over twenty. The game was

657
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 2: basically just over at that point, San Francisco has six

658
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: games left. None are easy Detroit, Buffalo, Arizona, Rams, Chicago,

659
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 2: Miami that is brutal. And Brandon and I feel like

660
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 2: on every podcast we've done since like week three, four five,

661
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 2: have been talking about the fact that San Francisco is

662
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 2: going to fade, and at this point they are eight

663
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: and nine straight up in their last seventeen games since

664
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 2: Christmas of last year. You know, injuries are a big

665
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: part of this, but this is kind of just what

666
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: San Francisco is right now. Now. Obviously there's talented parts here,

667
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 2: right like Kittle had a good game. You see some

668
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 2: sparks from Debo, but the defenses hit up. The offense

669
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 2: can't find any rhythm, especially with Perdy out in the shoulder.

670
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 2: You know, it is what it is. Maybe we'll see

671
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: him next week. The thing I thought was interesting, and

672
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 2: this is me just kind of throwing kindle into the fire.

673
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 2: But shanahan career, straight up, he is sixty eight and

674
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 2: thirty with Purdy and Jimmy g and nine and thirty

675
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 2: one with all other quarterbacks. It's just this is kind

676
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 2: of what you get. They don't overcome things, they don't

677
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 2: win a ton of times as underdogs. They play decently

678
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 2: his favorites when they're better than other teams. They're now

679
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 2: two to nine against the second half spread this year,

680
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 2: losing nine to the last ten, and they just keep

681
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: fading because the defense isn't as good as it was.

682
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 2: So to me, that's a San Francisco story. And from

683
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 2: Green Bay's point of view, we finally got a good game.

684
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 2: They broke a four game ATS losing streak, and you know,

685
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 2: amazingly for Green Bay. Sorry but you won, but so

686
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 2: did Minnesota, so did Detroit. You're eight and three and

687
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 2: still in third in your division. Unbelievable.

688
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's tough. San Francisco.

689
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 4: No Purty, no Trent Williams, no Nick Bosa. I don't

690
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 4: think it's quite as bad for them as a look today,

691
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 4: I will be coming back to San Francisco on the

692
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 4: hot read also, so we'll get back to them in

693
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 4: a second.

694
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: Love that all right. Tampa Bay at the Giants, Tampa

695
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:15,280
Speaker 2: Bay just absolutely dominated before Molak neighbors even saw the field. Basically,

696
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 2: it was thirty to nothing. The final score thirty to seven.

697
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 2: They cover His six point road favorites total goes under

698
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 2: forty and a half here, What else do you have

699
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 2: to say here, Brandon.

700
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, we hit the hot read under it a little

701
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 4: shaky there for a minute that they kind of petered

702
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 4: out near the end. This was the full Baker Baker

703
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 4: Mayfield get the spinning touchdown run, we get the Tommy

704
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 4: DeVito touchdown.

705
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 3: Seally, like, what are we doing?

706
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,399
Speaker 4: We're taunting the backup, backup Giants quarterback. I guess that's

707
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 4: what we're doing. He like dives head for a single

708
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 4: pile for a fumble and like gets a weird head injury.

709
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 4: At one point, he ran like fifty yards down the

710
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 4: field mid play to block somebody, like like block for

711
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 4: his own teammate. But just like three other quarterbacks in

712
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 4: the league might do something that stupid, and it's just like,

713
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 4: that's the Baker play. Like he's going one hundred and

714
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 4: fifty percent on every single play is he's guys have

715
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 4: fun watching it. This was a downin as Look, Buccaneers

716
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 4: had more than two hundred extra yards compared to the Giants.

717
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 3: DeVito.

718
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,799
Speaker 4: I don't know exactly how we bet this necessarily four

719
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 4: sacks today. He had a seventeen percent sack rate last year.

720
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 4: That is more than a once every six dropbacks, you're

721
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 4: getting sacked it five or more sacks five out of

722
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,760
Speaker 4: nine starts. So you know, again, another Thanksgiving team here.

723
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 4: If you want to bet like a Micah Parsons sack

724
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 4: or if you can get a sas escalator for the

725
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 4: right player. I'm not sure if it's Parsons, he's been

726
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 4: hot and cold, we know, but the right team with

727
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 4: the right pass rush is gonna make Tommy DeVito's life

728
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 4: pretty miserable. That's how this looked today. Bucks five and six.

729
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 4: They got Carolina X, they got the Raiders. After that,

730
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,720
Speaker 4: hope you got that plus seven hundred division ticket.

731
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 3: They're looking live. They are a pretty good looking team

732
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 3: despite all the injuries.

733
00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 2: Still and the thing you know about Baker and the

734
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 2: Bucks are going to be there every week, doesn't matter

735
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 2: who it is, it doesn't matter the competition. They're always

736
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 2: going to play hard and score some points. And honestly,

737
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: some consistency at a Baker is nice to see after

738
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 2: where he's been in his career. Denver at the Raiders.

739
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 2: Denver beats the Raiders twenty nine to nineteen in Vegas

740
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 2: as a six point road favorite. Total goes over forty

741
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 2: one and a half. Really, the story here was just

742
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 2: a story of first half and a story of the

743
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: second half, because in the first half, Denver had no sacks,

744
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 2: Minshew was comfortable, they led thirteen to nine, a Mira

745
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 2: Abdullah was all over the place, six carries, four targets

746
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 2: a touchdown, you know, with no Madison or White on

747
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 2: the Raiders side. And then the second half starts, Minshew

748
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 2: has a turnover, leads right to a Sutton touchdown, and

749
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: then nicks to Sutton again. And then honestly, at that

750
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 2: point the Raiders just couldn't find enough offense to get

751
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 2: back into the game. And then you had the injury

752
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: where Minshew is now gone broken collar bone. You had

753
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 2: Desmond Ridder come in, and then all of a sudden,

754
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,839
Speaker 2: Desmon Ridder end of the game, drives all the way

755
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 2: down to the goal line, gives it to Trey Tucker,

756
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 2: gets all the way down to the one, and then

757
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 2: of course Desmond Ritter does Desmon Ridder things, gets sacked

758
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 2: and Denver gets saved on the cover at the end

759
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 2: right there, one of the more you know, cover fun

760
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 2: plays at the end the end of the game. Today,

761
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 2: the stat to me, that's crazy here from like a

762
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,320
Speaker 2: Raiders point of view when betting them week to week.

763
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 2: They have now fallen behind by double digits in their

764
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,359
Speaker 2: first eleven games of the season. That hasn't been done

765
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 2: in thirty plus years at this point. So every single

766
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 2: week Raiders fall behind, they don't have enough offense to

767
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 2: get back in the game, and now they don't have

768
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 2: a quarterback, so just an absolute mess. The fun thing,

769
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 2: from Denver's point of view, they haven't beaten the Raiders

770
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 2: in Oakland or Vegas since October of twenty fifteen behind

771
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 2: Peyton Manning, so this is truly a next level victory

772
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:00,839
Speaker 2: for a team who went over their in total last

773
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 2: week for the first time as well since that twenty

774
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 2: fifteen season, seven and one or so since that mark,

775
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 2: so just a completely different Denver team. They're now six

776
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 2: and one on the road too against the spread, showing

777
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 2: up all the time there, so I think Denver's for real.

778
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: And then next week it's a great one Cleveland at

779
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 2: Denver on Monday Night football, which is just complete chaos

780
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,359
Speaker 2: with James going to Denver. But you can't wait for

781
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 2: that one, all right, Let's keep rolling here. Detroit at Indy.

782
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 2: Detroit dominates Indy twenty four to six, covering the seven

783
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 2: points spread on the road goes under fifty and a half,

784
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 2: and honestly, from Indye's point of view, you almost eight

785
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 2: years old, Like what could have been? You had a

786
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 2: short touchdown drop by ogle Tree, Dueland falls doesn't get

787
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 2: his feet and bounds on like a forty yard pass.

788
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 2: You had a thirty twenty a twenty. All these plays

789
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 2: taken back nullified by penalties. So I feel like Indy

790
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,839
Speaker 2: kind of had their but lines again, They're forty two

791
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 2: and fifteen now against to spread in their last fifty

792
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 2: seven games since November one, twenty twenty one. They just

793
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:09,840
Speaker 2: can't stop covering.

794
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Lions are a wagon Jared Goff with the

795
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 4: Lions now indoors thirty three and eleven ats seventy five

796
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 4: percent cover rate as well, So get ready for that

797
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving bet. Get that one in if you haven't already.

798
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 4: Lines thirty seven minutes of possession, more than double the

799
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,240
Speaker 4: first downs, one hundred and twenty two yards more, twenty

800
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 4: three more plays, just demolition on every level. To me

801
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 4: a takeaway for you on the Colt side, Anthony Richardson

802
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 4: kind of looking like what we saw early on in

803
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 4: one way. Eleven of twenty eight as a passer, no sacks,

804
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 4: no fumbles, No, I guess you had one fumble.

805
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 3: You're covered it. No sacks, no interception.

806
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:50,320
Speaker 4: That's good. Fourteen a dot minus fourteen cpoe. You can't

807
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 4: live that way. You're just shucking it up for grabs

808
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 4: and hoping that you get some of these long shot

809
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 4: plays come through. Here's the part I do like as

810
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 4: it better if you follow on the app. Hopefully you

811
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 4: do late ad for me. Richardson ten plus rushing yards.

812
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 4: We got an alt line on that. I think it

813
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 4: was like two fifty or something.

814
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 3: He hit it.

815
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 4: He got ten rushes on the nose, ten for sixty one.

816
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 4: Here's the thing I know. I was watching Colts what

817
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 4: they played last week, Colts Jets. I think watching that

818
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 4: back like Saturday, kind of prepping for the week. They're

819
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 4: just getting more designed rushes. I think Richardson ran on

820
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:23,959
Speaker 4: the second play of the game here to get more

821
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 4: off tackle type stuff. First month of this season, he

822
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 4: was not running that much. They were not giving him

823
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,479
Speaker 4: a lot of design runs. I think because he missed

824
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:33,320
Speaker 4: so much last year. They want to keep him healthy.

825
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 4: That's who he is. Like, if you're gonna have anthing Richardson,

826
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 4: you got to have him run truck dudes and get

827
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 4: his speed and his size out there. If you just

828
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 4: don't count the first month of the year before he

829
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,919
Speaker 4: got hurt and missed some time. He's only had now

830
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 4: six other healthy games in his career where he played

831
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,879
Speaker 4: the whole game. He's run at least ten times all

832
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 4: but one of those games. And the rushing attempts line

833
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 4: for today was seven and a half. Ten was an

834
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 4: alt line. I think there's a room to keep playing

835
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:59,800
Speaker 4: that one while the books adjust to that one. So

836
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 4: we'll watch for Anthony Richardson on the ground. That's a

837
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 4: good prop to keep an eye on.

838
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 2: I like that too. All right, let's keep going here,

839
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 2: New England at Miami. Miami dominates New England. The score

840
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,359
Speaker 2: doesn't even to give it just it's thirty four to

841
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 2: fifteen as a seven and a half point favorite. Total

842
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 2: goes over forty five and a half on a last

843
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 2: second ish touchdown by New England. And honestly, Dolphins have

844
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 2: just dominated this series. Miami's covered the spread in nine

845
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 2: straight games versus the Patriots dating back to December of

846
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 2: twenty twenty what else you got here, Brandon.

847
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 4: Not much, honestly, A thirty one nothing into the fourth

848
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 4: quarter until we got some garbage time. Second straight week.

849
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 4: The Patriots have done that. Dolphins. I'm not really still

850
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 4: sold that these are the Dolphins they're supposed to be.

851
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 4: Obviously they did great here, but I think this was

852
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 4: a Patriots thing. Dolphins are still not getting those explosive plays,

853
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 4: and that's the thing that's supposed to make them so special.

854
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 4: There are five and six. They're great now against the

855
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 4: Patriots and the Raiders. They still got Green Bay, Jets, Texans, Niners.

856
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 4: We get them Black Friday now, not Black Friday. We

857
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,399
Speaker 4: get them Thanksgiving Night against the Packers. I haven't bet

858
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 4: this one yet, but I think the Packers looked a

859
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 4: little more real to me than the Dolphins. That game

860
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 4: I think is gonna be really telling on where both

861
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 4: these teams are headed. I'm not sold yet on the

862
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 4: Dolphins just being back now, just from this game. To me,

863
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 4: we saw the Patriots look this bad against the Jets

864
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 4: once before, and how the rest of the Jets season.

865
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 3: Go from there.

866
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 4: So yeah, again, Patriots, They'll be coming up again in

867
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 4: the hot read as well in the Colts game and

868
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 4: probably guess which direction at this point I'm going on

869
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 4: that one.

870
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am going to give you a little bit

871
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 2: of a tease on something because my article this week

872
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 2: is going to come out and we're talking about Miami

873
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: and Green Bay and Miami and that game in Green

874
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 2: Bay on Christmas supposed to be about twenty seven degrees

875
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 2: or so, and that just hasn't been good for Tua

876
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,800
Speaker 2: at all in his career. Let's see, two has played

877
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 2: forty degree temperatures are cold or four times. In Miami

878
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 2: they're zero and four straight up, failing to cover the

879
00:42:56,560 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 2: spread by eighteen points per game. And Miami in general

880
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 2: thirty two degrees freezing or colder eleven and twenty eight

881
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,240
Speaker 2: straight up in franchise history. So just not a friendly

882
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 2: spot for them in Green Bay on Christmas. But we

883
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:11,800
Speaker 2: I mean on Thanksgiving Thanksgiving.

884
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,919
Speaker 4: But yeah, and I both have trends stuff coming out.

885
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 4: I like all three of the Thanksgiving games for possible

886
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:20,760
Speaker 4: hot reads. I just didn't put them in now because

887
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 4: we're gonna be talking about this again like Tuesday Night

888
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 4: to come out Wednesday. But yeah, I'm guessing at the

889
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 4: exact numbers on this trend But another trend that I

890
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 4: have on Thanksgiving is if you just don't count Dallas,

891
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 4: you don't want to bet Dallas on Thanksgiving. Anyone else

892
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 4: you bet the favorite. And I think favorites are something

893
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 4: like thirty and ten or something close to that ats

894
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 4: in the last couple decades. So yeah, I think it's

895
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 4: setting up for a very nice trend spot between bet

896
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 4: the favorite, you want to bet the public team. Usually

897
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 4: on Thanksgiving you get the cold weather here. Yeah, I

898
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 4: think it's a good spot probably for the Packers and

899
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 4: just kind of get the best line out of that one.

900
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 2: We're gonna have a ton for you guys, so just

901
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,760
Speaker 2: check it out in action. But let's get to Monday

902
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 2: Night football now. So Baltimore at the Chargers on Monday Night,

903
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 2: and I'll give you a few trends and a pick

904
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 2: that I'm going with before I give it off to

905
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 2: you here. So Monday night football overs have been the

906
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 2: way here at ten and four this year, going over

907
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 2: by five point eight points per game. And then it's

908
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 2: just simply Lamar. I mean, with the short line, this

909
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 2: is his spot as a favorite of three points or

910
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 2: less or an underdog. He is twenty five and six

911
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 2: against the spread in the regular season and in night games,

912
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 2: he is nineteen and five straight up. That is the

913
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 2: best win percentage for any quarterback in the Super Bowl

914
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 2: since the merger. And my bet I like Dicker Dicker

915
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 2: the kicker over one and a half field goals. He's

916
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: had one field goal in nine to ten games over

917
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 2: one and a half and seventy percent. And really the

918
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 2: angle here is Baltimore's defense. They've allowed the third most

919
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 2: field goal attempts and field goal made opposing teams nineteen

920
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 2: of thirty six in the Reds one versus Baltimore and

921
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 2: last year basically the same numbers. So I think it

922
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 2: gets there. What do you like here?

923
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I took the Ravens side. I took Ravens minus

924
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 4: three on the look ahead, so we lost the key

925
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 4: number here. I don't love that, but I do still

926
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 4: like the Ravens in the spot here. Certainly get the

927
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 4: two and a half if you can get it. I

928
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:24,439
Speaker 4: don't mind it still at the three. If it gets

929
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 4: back there by kickoff. I think it's a really important

930
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 4: game for Baltimore. You got to have this one after

931
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 4: the way that they have played recently. They can close

932
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 4: ground on Pittsburgh who lost on Thursday night, and you

933
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 4: kind of have to care about.

934
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 3: How you're doing against the Chargers too.

935
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 4: You lose this one, you're the sixth seat behind the Chargers,

936
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 4: You're going to have the tie break on you. You might

937
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:45,399
Speaker 4: fall behind Denver, you might fall out at that point

938
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 4: the way things are going.

939
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:49,239
Speaker 3: So it's a big spot. It's the hardbobble. Obviously.

940
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 4: I think Chargers defense got a little bit exposed Sunday

941
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 4: Night against Cincinnati last week. Baltimore's offense is even more

942
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 4: explosive and better that way, so I like their ability

943
00:45:59,920 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 4: to score here. The Chargers, we know, I want to

944
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 4: run the football. That's not gonna happen here in this game.

945
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,800
Speaker 4: Herbert's gonna do some stuff, But I think lad McConkie

946
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 4: is a real key here, and he's not necessarily good

947
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 4: to go in this game. The Ravens are dead last

948
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 4: DVO against the wide receiver one, so if he's healthy

949
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 4: and ready, I think the Chargers maybe can hang. But

950
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 4: we'll see what he has to give and if Herbert

951
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 4: can do this another big prime time spot. He's been

952
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 4: so good lately. Part of the reason I didn't mind

953
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:30,760
Speaker 4: the minus three Baltimore's last win, they beat the Bengals

954
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 4: by that one point when the two pointer didn't come through.

955
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:36,760
Speaker 4: Their last win by less than three before that game

956
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 4: was December twenty twenty two. Like you said, it's that

957
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 4: three number basically anything on that. I'm treating this almost

958
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 4: like a money line. Like the Ravens don't win by

959
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 4: these tiny margins usually, So another one of these LA

960
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 4: games where I think it's home field advantage for the

961
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 4: other team. There's gonna be a lot of Ravens here.

962
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 4: I like the Ravens minus two and a half. If

963
00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 4: you want a new play, I haven't given out already.

964
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 4: I like the first half under twenty five and a

965
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 4: half is even odds to me.

966
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:04,719
Speaker 3: This is just a splits thing.

967
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 4: Baltimore's defense sixth in the first half, twenty fifth in

968
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 4: the second half. Chargers defense second in the first half,

969
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 4: sixteenth in the second half, twenty seventh in the fourth quarter.

970
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 4: We saw that last week as the Bengals made that

971
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,800
Speaker 4: huge push coming back. Chargers first halves on the seasons

972
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 4: are averaging under nineteen points a game. All but two

973
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 4: twenty points are less in their first halves, So I

974
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 4: think the total going as high as it has is

975
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 4: kind of an overreaction to the Chargers game we saw

976
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:36,359
Speaker 4: last week. So I like the first half under here,

977
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 4: but main play. Just give me the Ravens. I think

978
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 4: it's a good spot for them.

979
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 2: I like that first half under that hit tonight. So

980
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 2: both LA teams still lose on Sunday Night football, they'll

981
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,239
Speaker 2: lose on Monday Night football and the road crowds to

982
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 2: Philly and Baltimore. So that makes sense to me. All right,

983
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,879
Speaker 2: you've got your hot read two picks. What's the first

984
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 2: pick you're thinking about? Hot rap Woo seventy on ice rights,

985
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 2: ice cream, Hourial Celtry.

986
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, how right?

987
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 4: Fifteen seven and one on the season. Now we got

988
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 4: two and zero this week, sixty eight percent hit rate.

989
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,880
Speaker 4: Back to the start of last year, thirty eight sixteen

990
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 4: and two, seventy percent on the hit rate. So if

991
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:23,000
Speaker 4: you haven't played it yet, Seattle minus one and a

992
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 4: half at the Jets still out there. Love that if

993
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 4: you haven't played it yet, Lions minus ten and a half.

994
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:31,399
Speaker 4: We grabbed minus ten. We grabbed Seattle plus one. Those

995
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:33,879
Speaker 4: lines haven't moved enough. They're gonna keep moving up, I think,

996
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 4: so grab those if you haven't. I'm gonna play Colts

997
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:40,879
Speaker 4: minus one and a half at the Patriots. I think

998
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 4: that this game is being overlooked as just kind of

999
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 4: two bad teams, when the reality is it's one really

1000
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 4: bad team and one just kind of like eh team.

1001
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 4: That's kind of what I think. Patriots thirty one nothing

1002
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 4: today until garbage time. They got fifteen points late. Made

1003
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:57,320
Speaker 4: it look not quite as bad. Last week played in

1004
00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 4: Miami twenty eight thirteen at nine points in garbage time

1005
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 4: to make it look not quite as bad. It's a

1006
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 4: bad team not playing well. The Colts have lost six times.

1007
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 4: Five of those losses were to the Texans, twice, Packers, Vikings, Bills.

1008
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,759
Speaker 4: Let's fine, those are fine teams to lose to. Four

1009
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 4: of those five losses were by one score. They're hanging

1010
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:19,799
Speaker 4: around now. They're also winning by a one score. There's

1011
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 4: playing a lot of one score games. They're four to

1012
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 4: one against sub five hundred teams. Chane Stike ins seven

1013
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 4: and two ats in his career as a favorite, which

1014
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:30,360
Speaker 4: obviously are here, and I think we'll get to be

1015
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,959
Speaker 4: more of one. I'm not so worried about the Colts

1016
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 4: after today. The Lions are just a wagon like that's

1017
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 4: that's just gonna happen to You're gonna get hit by

1018
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 4: the truck sometimes. Last six games before today, on the stats,

1019
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 4: Colts pass defense has actually been pretty good. Their run

1020
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 4: defense has been a week's spot. Okay, so all of

1021
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 4: the Patriots. The only thing they've done well is pass

1022
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 4: the ball. That's gonna be negated by the better pass defense.

1023
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 3: Here.

1024
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 4: They are dead last running the ball, so they cannot

1025
00:49:56,200 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 4: hurt this bad run defense. They're also dead last pass defense,

1026
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 4: so Richardson maybe hits a couple of those big passes

1027
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 4: and their bottom five running defense. That's the real problem,

1028
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 4: because the Colts are going to run on them, and

1029
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 4: I think that they will do fine.

1030
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 3: By DVOA.

1031
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 4: Entering the day, run pass offense defense, the Colts ranked

1032
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 4: anywhere from fourteenth to nineteenth.

1033
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:18,760
Speaker 3: They're just average. They're fine.

1034
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 4: The Patriots in those metrics twenty six to thirty first,

1035
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,919
Speaker 4: they're bad. Fine and bad are not the same thing.

1036
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 4: Colts are still hanging around. I mentioned the Texans earlier.

1037
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 4: I think they probably can't quite catch them. Five and seven.

1038
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 4: For the Colts, they got this game. They go at Denver,

1039
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 4: really big game that they need to have Tennessee Giants

1040
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 4: jack Jacksonville to end the season low bonus hot read

1041
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,359
Speaker 4: here at over eight and a half on the win

1042
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 4: totals plus one seventy six. They need to get four

1043
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 4: wins out of that group. If you like them here

1044
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:54,280
Speaker 4: and think they have a shot against Denver, this team

1045
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 4: can still make a push. You never know when Athey

1046
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 4: Richardson turns the page a little bit. I don't think

1047
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 4: they're Yeah. Maybe that's just me trying desperately to find

1048
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 4: not Texans somewhere in the division.

1049
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 3: But I certainly will take them here. Colts minus one

1050
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 3: and a half?

1051
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 2: All right, First hot read fine is not bad? Is

1052
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:14,919
Speaker 2: the title there? Second hot read? What do you got?

1053
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 3: Second hot read? Seven is too much? Is the title here?

1054
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:22,280
Speaker 4: Maybe the forty nine ers plus seven at the Bills.

1055
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 4: It's the Sunday night game. It is a big one.

1056
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 4: I think this line is a huge overreaction to that

1057
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 4: Niners game from today. Again we said this before. You're

1058
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 4: missing Rock Purty, Nick Bosa, Trent Williams. I think they

1059
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,240
Speaker 4: are three most important players by like a wide margin,

1060
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 4: all of whom probably should be back. Trent Williams was

1061
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:44,399
Speaker 4: expected to play. It was a late mess. Rock Purty

1062
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,920
Speaker 4: is expected to play. He was a late mess Bolso

1063
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:49,399
Speaker 4: will see. But I think there's a decent chance they played.

1064
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 4: Because you gotta have it and as are five and six,

1065
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 4: they have to win this game. You mentioned their schedule.

1066
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 4: You get the Bills, you win that game, then it's

1067
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 4: Bears Rams. Those are not easy, but compared to the

1068
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 4: rest of the schedule, they're easy for the Niners, like

1069
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:06,120
Speaker 4: that's their best shot. You get those games. You're eight

1070
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:09,760
Speaker 4: and six, maybe Washington lost another game, maybe the division's

1071
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,800
Speaker 4: still there. You got a chance if you get those games.

1072
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 4: They get those guys back, perty Bosa Williams, maybe Travarius Ward,

1073
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 4: their top defensive cornerback.

1074
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,840
Speaker 3: I like to of the run fits here, especially with Trent.

1075
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 4: Williams back and now CMC looking a little better and

1076
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:28,320
Speaker 4: better each week. San Francisco's run defense not great, probably

1077
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 4: their weakest spot of the team. They tend to be

1078
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:34,359
Speaker 4: a middle funnel. They're above average there. The Bills want

1079
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 4: to run power, they want to run up the middle,

1080
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 4: so I think Sanforan matches up pretty well. On the

1081
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 4: flip side, the Bills are more of an outside funnel.

1082
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 4: They want to push you to run outside that's not

1083
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 4: good against the Niners. This is the number one running

1084
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 4: outside team in the NFL if Trent Williams is out there,

1085
00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 4: so again, I sure hope I'm getting some of these

1086
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:57,240
Speaker 4: guys back. Obviously, that's the bet here. The Niners before

1087
00:52:57,280 --> 00:53:00,239
Speaker 4: today were the number two offense on the road. That's

1088
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:03,440
Speaker 4: guaranteed to drop after that disaster for today, but I

1089
00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 4: like that for them, they're the number three defense in

1090
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 4: the first half. Bills are below league gaverage there, so

1091
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 4: I think it sets up to have a returning, healthier team,

1092
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 4: desperate playing for their season, get off to the on

1093
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 4: the right foot starting out. And a few trends for

1094
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:21,879
Speaker 4: your here. The Bills have scored at least twenty five

1095
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 4: five straight games since two thousand and nine. Teams in

1096
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:28,560
Speaker 4: that spot are forty one percent ATS in their next

1097
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:31,399
Speaker 4: game home favorites of six or six and a half,

1098
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:33,879
Speaker 4: which we're not there yet, but I'm expecting this land

1099
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 4: to come down. That's why we're playing the hot read

1100
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 4: those teams the home favorites only forty three percent ATS

1101
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 4: three and eleven this year has not been a good

1102
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:44,840
Speaker 4: number for them, and again we're not here yet on

1103
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 4: this trend, but I think it gets there Shanahan when

1104
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 4: he's an underdog of under six points. Where I think

1105
00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 4: this may get to if some of these guys get healthy.

1106
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 4: Nineteen and seven ats seventy three percent, covering by almost

1107
00:53:57,080 --> 00:54:00,360
Speaker 4: a full touchdown. I think we're going to get some

1108
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:02,439
Speaker 4: of these guys back, and that if the injury news

1109
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:05,319
Speaker 4: looks good, this gets back down to four, maybe even

1110
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 4: toward three possibly. I think you just got to play

1111
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:09,880
Speaker 4: a team with us much talent this big of a

1112
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 4: line swing. This was minus three. A couple days ago,

1113
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 4: I tweeted out, I can't move the line four points.

1114
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 4: Some of these guys are gonna play the Niners are

1115
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 4: playing for their season. Plus seven on the Niners, and

1116
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:23,760
Speaker 4: it gave me the money line two plus two sixty.

1117
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:26,239
Speaker 4: I think they can get the job done and keep

1118
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 4: the season alive.

1119
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:30,040
Speaker 2: This is purely an injury play. I mean the look

1120
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 2: aheadline here was, and when I say look ahead, I

1121
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,479
Speaker 2: mean look ahead, look ahead. It was San Francisco minus two.

1122
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 2: So if you think San Francisco is who they should

1123
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 2: have been in the start, then yeah, seven is just

1124
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:44,799
Speaker 2: way too much. All right, Hot read one, Hot read two.

1125
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 2: Fantastic job. All right, before we wrap up, let's hear

1126
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 2: from Patrick Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things looked

1127
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 2: in Las Vegas.

1128
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:54,279
Speaker 1: All right, Evan, thanks a lot for having me on

1129
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. Patrick Evererson here to recap the

1130
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 1: weekend that was in the NFL. NFL Week twelve odds

1131
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:04,120
Speaker 1: almost in the books still got the Monday night game.

1132
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 1: We'll touch on that in a moment as well. But

1133
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 1: I guess the best way to put this is generally speaking,

1134
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:13,320
Speaker 1: unfortunately for the better, is the books had a decent

1135
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 1: NFL Week twelve, a decent Sunday in the NFL in

1136
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 1: an interesting kind of way. And let me explain what

1137
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:24,360
Speaker 1: I mean by that. So at Betamjam, for example, the

1138
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:27,839
Speaker 1: three most bet teams on the point spread straight bet

1139
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 1: points spread Tickets, Lions, Buccaneers, Vikings. The three most bet

1140
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 1: teams on the point spread by money, again on straight

1141
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:42,879
Speaker 1: bets only Lions, Packers, Buccaneers. So the Lions cover because

1142
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 1: the Lions always winning cover. The Buccaneers rolled against the

1143
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 1: New York Giants, who are a mess right now. The

1144
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 1: Vikings did not cover, so that didn't get there. So

1145
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 1: that's two out of three among the teams that got

1146
00:55:56,120 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 1: the most spread tickets, most spread money Lions wint Packers

1147
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 1: winning cover easily just as the Lions do and the

1148
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:08,880
Speaker 1: Buccaneers win and cover easily. So on straight bets, the

1149
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 1: public did really well, at least at betam Jam and

1150
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 1: probably at other books as well. And looking I know

1151
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:17,399
Speaker 1: that we've got some draft Kings numbers I was looking

1152
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 1: at a little bit earlier that were interesting as well,

1153
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 1: that had reflected a lot of that same type of

1154
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 1: situation where you know which teams the public were on

1155
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 1: the most. However, the public also, as we talk about

1156
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 1: regularly here, loves moneyline parlays, and a lot of people

1157
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:36,839
Speaker 1: like to bet the teasers as well, So when a

1158
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 1: very popular public play does not get there, a lot

1159
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,760
Speaker 1: of other bets get blown up along with it. For example,

1160
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders ten and a half point favorites against

1161
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:52,359
Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys losers outright thirty four to twenty six

1162
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 1: in just a crazy, crazy game that both teams tried

1163
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 1: their best to win and try their best to lose

1164
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 1: in varying ways over the course of four quarters and

1165
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter there were forty two points in the

1166
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 1: fourth quarter alone. Just an absolute crazy game. But the

1167
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 1: Commanders lose, and that multiple odds makers, including at betam GM,

1168
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 1: including here in Las Vegas at the Super book That

1169
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 1: was a really good outcome that helped out unfortunately the

1170
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 1: bookmakers a lot. A really good outcome for the bookmakers,

1171
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 1: I should say, definitely not a good outcome for the betters.

1172
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 1: The same thing in the early window on Sunday. That

1173
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 1: was an early window game. The Allions was an early

1174
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 1: window game for that matter too, and as was the Bucks,

1175
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 1: as was the Vikings. But that Cowboys upset was in

1176
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:41,919
Speaker 1: the early window Sunday. So too the Tennessee Titans eight

1177
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 1: point dogs at Houston, Tennessee wins outright, So a whole

1178
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:49,280
Speaker 1: lot of moneyline parlays and such and even straight that

1179
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 1: parlays and so forth got blown up by those two upsets. Furthermore,

1180
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs, always popular, did not cover the number,

1181
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 1: got dragged into a dogfight with the Carolina Panthers had

1182
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:03,400
Speaker 1: to get a last second field goal to win that

1183
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 1: game thirty to twenty seven. So while the public got

1184
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 1: some wins on this Sunday in NFL Week twelve odds,

1185
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 1: the books generally did a little bit better because the

1186
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:17,080
Speaker 1: books were able to beat the generally beat the money

1187
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 1: line parlays and some of the teasers and straight bet

1188
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 1: parlays and so forth. So that's some give and take,

1189
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:25,160
Speaker 1: I guess is the best way to put it. And

1190
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 1: then you had a situation that Chris Andrews at the

1191
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:29,479
Speaker 1: south Point Sports but Karen las Vegas told me about

1192
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 1: south Point is kind of unique. They don't juice their

1193
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:34,640
Speaker 1: numbers at all. So they're either going to be on

1194
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:36,560
Speaker 1: a number at minus they're going to be at minus

1195
00:58:36,600 --> 00:58:38,240
Speaker 1: three flat, or they're going to be at minus three

1196
00:58:38,240 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 1: and a half flat. They'll never be at three minus

1197
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:42,960
Speaker 1: one twenty or minus one twenty five or anything like that.

1198
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 1: They either move or they don't. And in that Vikings game,

1199
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 1: it really dinged them because they had been at three

1200
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 1: and three and a half throughout the week and what

1201
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 1: had happened was betters were either laying the three with

1202
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 1: the with the Vikings or they were taking the three

1203
00:58:58,760 --> 00:59:02,280
Speaker 1: and a half with the Bears. The Vikings win by

1204
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:06,439
Speaker 1: exactly three, So South Point has to refund all those

1205
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 1: minus three betters with the Bears and pay all the

1206
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 1: Vikings betters at plus three and a half. And I'm

1207
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 1: sure some other books experienced that to a lesser degree,

1208
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:17,160
Speaker 1: if you know, because a lot of other books do

1209
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 1: well juice their numbers rather than moving to three and

1210
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 1: a half for example, or back to three. But some

1211
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 1: other books probably experienced that, but not to the extent

1212
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 1: that South Point did. So that was one that was

1213
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 1: where the South Point took it on the chin. But

1214
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:32,760
Speaker 1: the Betters did really well. You either got a refund

1215
00:59:32,800 --> 00:59:34,960
Speaker 1: if you had the Vikings or you got paid if

1216
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 1: you got the Bears. So good on the Betters for

1217
00:59:37,440 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 1: that one. But again generally, speaking of what I'm hearing

1218
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:42,880
Speaker 1: from the super book from BETAMGM a little bit from

1219
00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:44,640
Speaker 1: the South Point, they had a decent weekend, even though

1220
00:59:44,640 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 1: they did have that bad result with the Vikings and such.

1221
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:51,840
Speaker 1: Still overall had a decent weekend. Could have potentially been

1222
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:54,680
Speaker 1: a huge weekend if a couple of other things have

1223
00:59:54,760 --> 00:59:57,760
Speaker 1: fallen right for the books, but fortunately they didn't. Because

1224
00:59:57,800 --> 00:59:59,640
Speaker 1: we're rooting for the Betters here as much as anything,

1225
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 1: we want to see the customers do well and have

1226
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:05,520
Speaker 1: a good time and extend their bankroll a little bit

1227
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:08,440
Speaker 1: if they can. Let's wrap it up by looking ahead

1228
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 1: to Monday night a little bit as we head into Monday,

1229
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 1: and we got a really good Monday night game. It's

1230
01:00:13,480 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 1: the Hardball Bowl. He got John versus Jim, and I'm

1231
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 1: pretty sure Jim is O and two straight up and

1232
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:22,360
Speaker 1: against the spread against Johnny's owing two straight up for sure,

1233
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:25,360
Speaker 1: and head to heads and the NFL play against his

1234
01:00:25,480 --> 01:00:29,360
Speaker 1: older brother at Draft Kings. As you head into your

1235
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 1: Monday for the Monday night game, heavy Baltimore Ravens action

1236
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:38,960
Speaker 1: seventy five percent of spread bets, eighty six percent of

1237
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 1: spread money coming in on Baltimore at Draft Kings. I

1238
01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 1: can tell you at bet MGM not nearly that lopside,

1239
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 1: much closer to two way action. But again, this could

1240
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:54,520
Speaker 1: change a lot over the course of the day Monday,

1241
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 1: and depending on the mondayline parlays and parlays and so

1242
01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:01,360
Speaker 1: forth that roll to Monday Night, those typically tend to

1243
01:01:01,440 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 1: go to the favorite. So it's more than likely that

1244
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 1: most books will be rooting for the Los Angeles Chargers

1245
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 1: to at least cover that small number to more. And

1246
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't mind the Los Angeles Chargers winning outright

1247
01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 1: to blow up any lingering moneyline parlays. So they were

1248
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:19,760
Speaker 1: having a little recap of NFL week twelve. We'll look

1249
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 1: forward to talking to you next week after a big

1250
01:01:22,080 --> 01:01:25,640
Speaker 1: long sixteen game slate for Thanksgiving weekend.

1251
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:29,320
Speaker 2: Thank you everybody for listening to the Action Network podcast.

1252
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 2: This has been the recap episode. Now this is Thanksgiving week,

1253
01:01:32,680 --> 01:01:36,360
Speaker 2: so we're gonna have everything available by Tuesday night into

1254
01:01:36,400 --> 01:01:41,240
Speaker 2: Wednesday morning, from Best Bets pods to Stucky to Raybon

1255
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:44,479
Speaker 2: and Kerner. Everyone's gonna have everything live with Thanksgiving Slate

1256
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:47,280
Speaker 2: Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so look for all the

1257
01:01:47,360 --> 01:01:50,240
Speaker 2: coverage there and you'll see Brandon and I for Best

1258
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:53,440
Speaker 2: Bets that night as well. And thank you for listening,

1259
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 2: and that's a wrap on Week twelve.

1260
01:02:10,600 --> 01:02:15,080
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1261
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:17,960
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1262
01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:21,040
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler