1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Well, 7 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: let's turn our attention out to an area of the 8 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,239 Speaker 1: economy which has not necessarily, let's say, been illuminated by 9 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's presidency, and that is the retail sector. And 10 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: here to tell us more as Chris Fulkei is the 11 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: chief executive Store Capital Chris, thanks very much for being here. 12 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: Now I just want to read you one note. This 13 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: comes actually from a Credit Suite report, and this has 14 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: to do with the deterioration in real estate investment trust 15 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: but specifically in the mall A segment. It says this 16 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: has to do with the associated mortgage backed securities and 17 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: CDs right swaps. Barely a quarter into seventeen, year to 18 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:15,479 Speaker 1: day retail store closings have already surpassed those of two 19 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:20,759 Speaker 1: thousand and eight. Is that scary? It is scary? There 20 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: are probably close to nine thousand stores slated to be 21 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: closed potentially this year. UM. Now, the good news for 22 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 1: us is that we're into service space and manufacturing, so 23 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: we have give or take exposure to retail, and of that, 24 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 1: very few of our locations are anywhere close to any 25 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 1: of the chains that are suffering the big closures. Well, 26 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: so let's talk about your firm, your chief executive officers 27 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: officer of store Capital, which is a middle market real 28 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: estate capital solutions firm. Are you going into some of 29 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: these mid tier retailers and these mid tier malls and 30 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: trying to help them structure their debts and their businesses 31 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: that they can emerge from this uh, this deterioration and 32 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: credit worthiness that we've seen on a broad based level 33 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: and retail. Uh No. So, so store is stands for 34 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 1: single tenant operational real estate. So we focus on profit 35 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: center properties. So we do business mostly in the service space. 36 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: So think about health clubs and fitness or early childhood education, 37 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: movie theaters, uh, you know, veterinary clinics, that kind of thing. 38 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: So we do lots of lots of things in the 39 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 1: service space. We do about in the retail space. And 40 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:37,399 Speaker 1: we started the company in two thousand and eleven, which 41 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: meant we had a little bit of foresight to know that, hey, 42 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: the Internet is here. We know that you have to 43 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: be an experiential retailer. And clearly there are retailers that 44 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: are expanding in today's economy. But uh, the the assets 45 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 1: that we're owning would be let's say, in the furniture space, hunting, fishing, 46 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: um uh, you know, home improvement, things like that hobby 47 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: space uh and which is just a different kind of space, 48 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,359 Speaker 1: and and things that you would not typically buy over 49 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: the internet, things you'd like to try out. Can you 50 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 1: put numbers to just how different the fates of these 51 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 1: experiential stores are to their retail they're like physical retail brethren. Well, 52 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: I would say that our average retailer is probably growing 53 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: year to year about eight percent top line in sales, 54 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 1: so uh, and some of that same store sales growth, 55 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,119 Speaker 1: and some of that's adding new locations. Um So, these 56 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: are vibrant retail companies. And again it's only about fift 57 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: of what we do, but it's um uh. Typically people 58 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: for example, want to try an mattress or they want 59 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: to try a sofa there, and they have a hard 60 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: time returning things if they're if they're delivered to them, 61 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: and so on. So uh so these are the types 62 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: of things that we think long term, uh will do well. 63 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: We don't think that people will just stay in there 64 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: on their sofa and order everything that they can. So 65 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: would it be okay to classify you as an expert 66 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: in credit? Uh? You know a little bit about it 67 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: right well? And the reason because I'm wondering if you 68 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 1: could just walk us through the credit landscape right now 69 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: and give us your thoughts not just as a as 70 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: an investor, but as someone that is a practitioner about 71 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 1: the consent deals you're seeing and the kinds of investors 72 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: that are being courted because yields are as still historically low. Well, 73 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: I mean, I've I've always thought in our space the 74 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 1: credits miss priced. People have a tendency to think that 75 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: a strong credit equates to an investment grade contracts. So 76 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: otherwise I have an investment grade tenant, I must have 77 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: an investment grade contract. Um Uh. If I have a 78 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 1: pretty piece of real estate, it must be a good investment. 79 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: I mean, these are things that are not necessarily true. 80 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: Good credit does not equate to a good contract. A 81 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: pretty piece of real estate does not equate to a 82 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: good investment. Just to give maybe given example so people 83 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 1: understand how that works. Well, Uh, you could have a 84 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: company that's an investment grade credit, but you could pay 85 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:55,679 Speaker 1: twice what the real estate would cost to build for 86 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 1: for for example, you may not have proper allianments of interest, 87 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: so leases allow the tenant to go dark. Anytime. You 88 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 1: don't have master leases, you have no financial reporting. If 89 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: you look at our company today, we get financial reporting 90 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: from about nine percent of our talents, which is just 91 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 1: staggering at the store level, not just the corporate level, 92 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: the corporate level, but the store level. So that's just unbelievable. 93 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 1: Where are the companies that you invest in the stores? 94 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 1: Are they in a level malls sea level malls? Are 95 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: they not in malls? I would say most of them 96 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 1: are not in malls. Um, So let's if I if 97 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,919 Speaker 1: I have three of our properties that are within a 98 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 1: quarter of a mile roughly of Macy's, a Kmart, a Pennies, 99 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: a Sears. That tells you that we're not really in malls. 100 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 1: Where in strip center is more or less in front 101 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 1: of Walmart's, in front of targets. Uh. Sometimes if it's 102 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: a if it's a restaurant, or if it's another retail store, 103 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: we might be adjacent to one of those kinds of properties. Well, 104 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: I guess I I What I'm trying to get at 105 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: is we've heard a lot of hedge fund managers say 106 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: that shorting mall related debt is the next big short, 107 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: and we've seen a lot of big investors who are 108 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 1: very respected go in and try to do this via 109 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 1: derivative wagers, among others. Do you think that they're onto 110 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: something based on what you have seen in your personal 111 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: investing experience. I think if you could find a pure 112 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: way to short more related debt, it might be an 113 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: interesting investment. Uh, it's it's far moved from what I 114 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:26,799 Speaker 1: do for a living, but it might be interesting investment. 115 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: But what I've seen is that things that people are 116 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 1: shorting tend to be somewhat blunt instruments, so they're not 117 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 1: exactly pure more related debt. There is no pure thing 118 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: to short in CDs as there was in residential real 119 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: estate prior to the Great Recession. Some of your customers 120 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: might be restaurants, for example, right, like for Burger King Right. 121 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: If you need some financing or some help with the franchise, 122 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: then you're going to lend your expertise to that. You're 123 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: in Scottsdale, Arizona. When I thought when I saw that, 124 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 1: and I remembered, of course, what you have to live 125 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 1: through it to be in Scottsdale, Arizona. Let's say, back 126 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight, if you can give us 127 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: a little perspective as to why this cycle appears the 128 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: way it does, and not to confuse it with what 129 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: happened in two thousand and eight, right, well, to put 130 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: it in perspective. We've been in this business for about 131 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: thirty five years UM, and this is our third public company, 132 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 1: so this is not my first rodeo. And every company 133 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: we've run is outperformed the benchmark. So it didn't matter 134 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: whether a ten year treasury with six fifty four fifty. 135 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 1: Today we're a two thirty, So we've always out performed 136 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: the benchmarks. Um Our Stores, the assets that we own 137 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: are today in forty eight states, UH, the biggest state 138 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: being Texas, at no other states north of ten UM, 139 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: so we're all over the country and we're providing UH 140 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 1: financial real estate net least solutions to middle market and 141 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: larger companies and for them we're providing a financial solution 142 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 1: for our investors, were providing them with the opportunity to 143 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: own some really good quality real estate investments. How many 144 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: competitors do you have if you noticed that the field 145 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 1: has gotten more crowded as an investment firms to look 146 00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: for new opportunities so far, I would say no, um 147 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 1: uh and and I we sold our first public company 148 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 1: in two thousand one to GE Capital. Uh. Today my 149 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: office is actually in UH space that used to be 150 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: occupied by the successor company to the first company were created. 151 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: G must have bought ten people in our space, so 152 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 1: they almost like the oxygen out of the room, buying 153 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: people and growing it in. Today G Capital has has 154 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: ceased to exist, So I would say that there it's 155 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: very very hard to create an institutional player in the space. 156 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: Most of the people that are competitors of ours are 157 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: small to medium sized landlords. They're privately held. They're very 158 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,559 Speaker 1: few of you know, good quality public you know landlords. 159 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: And in the marketplace. By the way, that our our 160 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:42,559 Speaker 1: market alone is about two and a half treeion dollars 161 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: in size, so uh and and here we are with 162 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 1: an equity capitalization that's just north of four bayon acquisitions, 163 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 1: what are you looking for? Well, our guidance this year 164 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: so far is to do nine million dollars net of sales, 165 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: so we'll sell properties from time to time. Last year 166 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 1: we did about a b in one fifty uh so 167 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: the year before that we did about the same. We've 168 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,719 Speaker 1: been in general doing somewhere around a hunter million hours 169 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,559 Speaker 1: a month worth of business. We've been doing thirty to 170 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: forty transactions every quarter. We've been adding to our customer base, 171 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: and about a third of the business we do is 172 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: repeat business with existing tenants. What do you think will 173 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 1: be the hallmark to look for to indicate that the 174 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: retail armageddon iss some people have been calling it with 175 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: the incredible rush of stores that have been closed, that 176 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 1: this that this retail blood bath is reaching a crescendo. 177 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 1: You know, I think that the retail blood bath that 178 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: you're talking about is mostly going to affect malls where 179 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: you're dealing with large anchors that are having issues, which 180 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,680 Speaker 1: can cause a lot of smaller retailers to also close 181 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: down their shops. And some of those smaller retailers are 182 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,719 Speaker 1: also closing down their shops on their own. Um, if 183 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 1: you look at strip malls, for example, most of those 184 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: malls are filled with you know, a Walmart, and then 185 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: lots of service providers could be taxed for fighters, could 186 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: be yoga studios, um. And I think that a lot 187 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: of those malls are doing great. So but a lot 188 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: of people say that we're not in the ninth inning, 189 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 1: if you're going to use a baseball analogy, We're not 190 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: necessarily nearing the end of the pain that we've seen 191 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: in the retail industry. I mean, would you agree, I 192 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: do agree. I think that you know, we're going to 193 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: see the demise of some very old and um storied 194 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: names and retail over time. Thank you so much, truly 195 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 1: fascinating to speak with you, and thank you so much 196 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: for coming to the studios. Chris Volki is chief executive 197 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: officer of Store Capital, talking about middle market investing in 198 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 1: retail spaces but really focusing on experiences, not just selling stuff. Well, yesterday, 199 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: Home Capital Group, which is Canada's biggest alternative mortgage lender, 200 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 1: plunged more than sixty percent after disclosing that it needed 201 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: emergency financing that was done and secured at very un 202 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,959 Speaker 1: uh financially unpleasant terms. Let's just say now the stock 203 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 1: is rebounding rebounding a bit, but I really want to 204 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: get a sense of how much this company serves as 205 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: a harbinger for the broader Canadian mortgage market which has 206 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: been on fire. Doug Alexander, please join us and make 207 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: sense of this. Doug Alexander is a Canadian financial service 208 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: services reporter with Bloomberg and he comes to us from Toronto. Doug, 209 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: can you just put this into broader context? I mean, 210 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 1: is Home Capital Group considered UH sort of a red 211 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 1: flag a Canary uh that sort of signifies some deeper, 212 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: broader pain in the mortgage market in Canada. Yes, good morning, UM, 213 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: Home Capital H. A short answer would be uh no, Um. 214 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: They are actually, UH, as you point out, the largest 215 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:06,079 Speaker 1: alternative lender UH in Canada. They do. They've been around 216 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: for like thirty one years, um. And what they really 217 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: do is they do specialize in a certain kind of mortgage. 218 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,839 Speaker 1: It's not necessarily like the subprime that you'd see in 219 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: the US that has what caused so many problems during 220 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: the financial crisis, but they do provide loans to people 221 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: that may have a bit more difficulty UH getting qualifications 222 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: through the major Canadian banks, whether it be because they 223 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: have more complicated UM income streams, or they could be 224 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 1: foreigners that have just moved into the country. But the 225 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,599 Speaker 1: bottom line, home capital has about twenty billion dollars or 226 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 1: less than twenty billion dollars of loans UM mortgage loans, 227 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 1: and the Canadian UH mortgage market essentially is about one 228 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:51,200 Speaker 1: point one trillion in Canadian Hey, hey, Doug, you know, 229 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: I wonder if you could just step back into and 230 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: explain a little bit about the real estate market, the 231 00:12:55,920 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: residential real estate market in Canada, because, uh, the government 232 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: has I believed already proposed a tax on foreign purchases. Also, 233 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: you've seen explosive increases in real estate values in cities 234 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: like Vancouver and also in Toronto. You got a lot 235 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: of speculators. What if you could just kind of pull 236 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 1: it all together for Yeah, it's a very interesting market. 237 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: So when it comes to real estate in Canada, UM 238 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: and really, as you point out, there has been a 239 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: huge price appreciation as of late. It's really am It's 240 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 1: really a market that is very, very lumpy. There are 241 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 1: two areas in the country where you could argue that 242 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: there's an overheated housing market, which is UH Toronto currently 243 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 1: UM and Vancouver Vancouver is UM kind of eased off 244 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: a little bit, but as you point out, in UM 245 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 1: Vancouver last year, there were UH measures taken to curb 246 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 1: UH some of that demand UM by targeting UH foreign 247 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 1: investors with a with a tax UM that's been in 248 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 1: pos is now in to cover the Toronto market as well. 249 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 1: But either very two very specific markets in the country. 250 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: If you look across the country and that there are 251 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: other markets that are are UH seeing a slowdown UM 252 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 1: for whatever UM economic reasons, Calary being one of them. 253 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: UM and other major cities like Much we all that 254 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: really just haven't seen that UM that that same level 255 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: of appreciation. So it's really a a country that has 256 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: two overheated housing markets. And let's be clear that's actually 257 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: concerned policymakers UM and you know those in the financial 258 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: services industry and UH and UH you know politicians at 259 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: the local level as well well. I just want to 260 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 1: bring this back to Home Capital Group because this UH 261 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: is this company is based in Toronto, which is one 262 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: of the overheated markets that you point to, and they 263 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: have been the subject of a regulatory probe basically looking 264 00:14:56,160 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: into whether their lending standards were overly lax. Another words, 265 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: they were letting me perhaps money to people who couldn't 266 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 1: afford to pay it back. I mean, I guess that 267 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 1: from that perspective, you have to wonder, is this a problem. 268 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 1: Are we seeing a repeat, perhaps on a smaller scale, 269 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 1: of what we saw leading up to two thousand and 270 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: eight in the US? Yeah, I don't think that's what's 271 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: what the you know, the analysts and UH and other 272 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: observers in the industry industry are looking at. They're looking at. 273 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: Home Capital is really a very company specific issue, and 274 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: I think to understand the current context that we're in 275 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: with home Capital, we have to kind of go back 276 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: a couple of years and really what their problem is 277 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: is a problem of disclosure. UM. A couple of years ago, UH, 278 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:45,479 Speaker 1: they they had issues with some mortgages from outside brokers 279 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: UH that UH that turned out to be approved by 280 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: because some of the information on their income was falsified. Now, 281 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: as far as we've been told since, there's been really 282 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 1: no problems with those mortgages. But a time in two 283 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: thousand and fifteen, UH, the company cuts hies with about 284 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 1: forty brokers. The problem is that initially they kind of 285 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: downplayed that, they kind of hid that information UH in 286 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: their UM quarterly results and when they were asked about 287 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 1: it during the conference calls with the Analyston investor community, 288 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: they really kind of um sidestepped it. That brought concerns 289 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: with the Canadian regulator, Ontario's regulator, and that's where their 290 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: problems have surfaced as of late. Um Doug Alexander, I 291 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: wish we could continue because it's a fascinating story. We're 292 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 1: gonna have to leave it there. Doug Alexander is Canada's 293 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: financial services reporter for Bloomberg. Coming to us from Toronto. 294 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: We want to take a moment to let you know 295 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: about something new from Bloomberg. 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Slash lens Board is quote, 305 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 1: having one foot in today and one foot in tomorrow. 306 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 1: That's according to Chief executive officer Mark Fields. Today after 307 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: Ford Motor Company reported earnings that underwhelmed UH certainly traders, 308 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: the shares are down more than a percentage point based 309 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 1: on the idea that the company is spending more on 310 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: driver list technology now uh cost cutting more costs, and 311 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 1: trying to prepare for the future. To sort of explain 312 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: the road ahead, I am very pleased bringing Bob Shanks, 313 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: executive vice president and chief financial officer of Ford Motor Company, 314 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: coming to us from Dearborn, Michigan. Bob, thank you so 315 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: much for joining us. First, I just wanted to gauge 316 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 1: the mood inside Ford headquarters. I mean, do people feel 317 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: like it's kind of not fair that Ford is now 318 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 1: pouring money into too uh driver list technology and uh 319 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 1: more electric cars and investors are not impressed. Whereas Tesla, 320 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: all they have to do is say, you know, energy 321 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: and everybody cheers. Well, I can tell you you know 322 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 1: how I feel untrustrated frankly, because um, while we're creating 323 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,919 Speaker 1: value in terms of the core business today, uh and 324 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: certainly our dividend is strong and it's sustainable even through 325 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 1: a downturn. UM. We we have laid out a plan 326 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: to participate in what's what's going to be a transformation 327 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: of the industry that will pay off as it will 328 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:57,159 Speaker 1: for others that are working on similar technologies UM in 329 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,080 Speaker 1: the future. There doesn't seem to be a much of 330 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,479 Speaker 1: our recognition of that because I think deeper focused more 331 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 1: on the nearer term. I would just say, we're not pouring, uh, 332 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 1: you know, resources into that. The vast majority of the 333 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,920 Speaker 1: investments we're making are in the core business. But we 334 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: we are investing appropriately imprudently in autonomy, electrification, mobility and 335 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 1: so forth. That's that's true. But you know, we're going 336 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 1: to continue to do what we're doing because we know 337 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: it's right, and we know where the industry is heading 338 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: and we have to be prepared for that, and we 339 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: we plan to participate that and to create value by 340 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 1: doing so. Bob, I want to talk a little bit 341 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: about the here and now with you and just get 342 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 1: your thoughts on Lincoln and the Lincoln Navigator and the 343 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:38,199 Speaker 1: refresh that's going on. Yeah, that is, uh, that's a 344 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 1: really big opportunity for us, the Navigator as well as 345 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 1: the Ford Expedition We just revealed those products of the 346 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: Lincoln at the New York Auto Show expedition to a 347 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: bit earlier. This is the first complete ground up redesign 348 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: in a long time. It's gonna They're both going to 349 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: take aluminum bodies. They're going to be on the same 350 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: sort of platforms as the F one fifty, which has 351 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: been usually successful and the re action to that product 352 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: has been phenomenal. They'll be coming out. I think the 353 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 1: launches are in the third quarter, probably hit the market 354 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: in the fourth and they're very high margin products, so 355 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 1: it's a big opportunity for us. Just quickly where they 356 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: made are they say, in the same Kansas they're made 357 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: the F as the F series. They're made at Kentucky 358 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: Truck which is where we make the Super Duty. But 359 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 1: they have their own body shop and their own paint shop, 360 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 1: you know, Bob, I do want to just a touch 361 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,719 Speaker 1: on used car prices and that Ford did say today 362 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 1: that they see use car prices falling six percent this year. 363 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 1: Can you put that into perspective whether use car values 364 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 1: are falling faster than you've been expecting and the road 365 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: ahead for the rest of the year. That's a good question. 366 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 1: I would say, they're not falling faster than what we 367 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: have been expecting over the last number of months. What 368 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 1: happened about a year ago actually this time, is that 369 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,199 Speaker 1: we started to talk about and guide to decline in 370 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 1: use car values related to the fact that the industry 371 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: has been leasing at the levels of you know, we've 372 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: never seen before over the last number of years, and 373 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: a rising industry and been you know, a lot of 374 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 1: those vehicles. Now we're starting to come back off lease. 375 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: So we we expected a decline. We adjusted our view 376 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: of that decline in November last year, and everything that 377 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 1: we see today suggests that everything's happening and unfolding as 378 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,919 Speaker 1: we had expected. So we have seen a year over 379 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 1: year decline of seven percent at Ford. That's in align 380 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 1: with what's happened overall across the industry. And what I 381 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 1: mentioned in the call today is that we expect on average, 382 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: used car values to decline about six percent over the 383 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: full year. But what about the charge offs in Ford's 384 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 1: credit unit. Have you seen delinquencies and write downs increase 385 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: at a faster pace than you've been expecting. Well, they've 386 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,879 Speaker 1: been increasing from where they had been and they but 387 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 1: they've been at historical lows. So when we look at 388 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: the all the metrics around delinquencies, the frequency of defaults, 389 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,919 Speaker 1: the severity of those defaults, they're only approaching what you know, 390 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: we would consider to be historical norms. So they were 391 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 1: extremely low when we came out of the downturn for 392 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 1: a number of years, or just approaching what you know, 393 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: we would call normal. Uh. And in fact, in recent 394 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: periods we've seen you know, some slow down if you will, 395 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: in terms of the pace of that change. So we 396 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 1: feel that we've captured that appropriately in the outlook for 397 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: Ford Credit for the full year. Bob, just taking a 398 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: look at the shares of Ford, I mean, they're down 399 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,400 Speaker 1: about five percent so far this year, but you're paying 400 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 1: a five and a quarter percent dividend. And if you 401 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: are talking directly to and I'm sure you are in 402 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: a way speaking directly to shareholders who may be bought 403 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 1: into the Ford idea, let's say to three years ago 404 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 1: after the financial debacle, what would you say to them today? Well, clearly, 405 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: we've delivered seven years of very very strong performance right 406 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: across the board. This is a different company than it 407 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: was going into the downturn. We've done a lot of restructuring, 408 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: it's a much fitter company. It's ready for another downturn. Uh. 409 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 1: And in particular relatives to the dividend, you know, we 410 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 1: have staked very strong position that we intend and plan 411 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 1: and believe we have the capability of paying that regular 412 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: dividend at the level that it's at when we go 413 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: into the downturn throughout that downturn. So, you know, for 414 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: those interested in a good return, because as you said, 415 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: five percent and you're paying what fifteen fifteen cents to 416 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: share exactly. Uh. And in addition to that, over the 417 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:24,199 Speaker 1: last two years, we've paid a supplement dividend UH. And 418 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 1: that opportunity still exists as as we move forward, because 419 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,400 Speaker 1: we don't see any signs that the recession that ultimately 420 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: will happen is on the horizon. So we think we've 421 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 1: got a great story to tell for those that are 422 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 1: particularly interested in in dividend a great return. Thanks very 423 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 1: much for joining us. As always, Bob Shanks is the 424 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,399 Speaker 1: executive vice president and the chief financial officer of the 425 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 1: Ford Motor Company based in Dearborn, Michigan. Thanks for listening 426 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg pm L podcast. You can subscribe and 427 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast 428 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at 429 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 1: pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one 430 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,399 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on 431 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 1: Bluebirg Radio