WEBVTT - Episode 850: Drone Attacks Escalate the War in Ukraine 0:00:04.800 --> 0:00:07.880 On this episode of its World. Last week, Ukraine attacked 0:00:07.960 --> 0:00:11.400 Russia with drones, launching them from semi trucks and destroyed 0:00:11.440 --> 0:00:15.040 or damage at least a dozen Russian aircraft, including many 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:20.280 of Moscow's nuclear capable strategic bombers. On Friday, Russia responded 0:00:20.360 --> 0:00:23.520 by launching four hundred and seven drones in decoys, nearly 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.840 forty crews missiles, and six ballistic missiles from land, air, 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:30.600 and sea at towns and cities across the breadth of 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:34.160 the nation. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, it appeared 0:00:34.159 --> 0:00:36.400 to be the second largest drone assault of the war, 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:40.559 after Russia launched nearly five hundred drones last weekend. As 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:44.479 the war in Ukraine escalates, how will the United States respond? 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:47.640 I'm really pleased to welcome my guests, Anatole Levin. He 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:50.559 is the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy 0:00:50.600 --> 0:01:05.280 Institute for Responsible State CREP. Anatole, welcome and thank you 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:05.800 for joining me. 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:08.399 On news World. Nice to be here. How long have 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:08.839 you been. 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:12.080 Looking at Ukraine and Ukraine Russian relations? 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:15.840 Since nineteen ninety when I was a British journalist for 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.160 London Times. It was sent out to the then Soviet 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:24.360 Union and spent seven years there. I visited Ukraine a lot, 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.440 I can't remember how many times in those years. And 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:29.920 then I wrote a book about the Ukrainian Russian relationship 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:34.600 called A Fraternal Rivalry, which came out in nineteen ninety nine. 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:37.360 And so you were actually there during the whole transition 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:42.240 from the Soviet Union to Russia and from a Russia 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:45.600 trying to grapple with openness to the rise of Putin. 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:49.280 I was, yes, were you surprised by the rise of Putin? 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:53.600 No? I mean, in fact, given what happened to Russia 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:56.600 in the nineteen nineties, I was afraid at the time 0:01:56.600 --> 0:01:59.280 that it could be even worse, that you could have, 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:04.880 I mean out right fascism and persecution of national minorities 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:09.280 and civil war. Of course, what we've got has been bad, 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:12.840 but in Russia things can always be worse, because you 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:17.400 had a combination of things that very few countries have 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:23.280 faced before, which was a combination of the loss of empire, 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:25.960 because that's really what the Soviet Union was. Now. Of 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:28.560 course other countries went through that, Britain went through it, 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:33.000 France went through it, but that was combined with catastrophic 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:36.760 economic collapse whereas one of the things that made the 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:39.680 loss of Empire easier for the British and French in 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.240 the fifties and sixties was that these were years of 0:02:42.280 --> 0:02:46.600 great economic prosperity and expansion. And then on top of 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:50.720 that you had the end of communist ideology, which left 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:57.160 people morally and intellectually and ideologically completely at sea. And 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:01.320 so I was expecting backlash against the backlash is what 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:05.040 we got. I mean also, I have to say, and 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:08.760 this alerted me in advance to some of the things 0:03:08.800 --> 0:03:11.119 that we've seen, well we're already seeing. We've seen much 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:17.440 more since then. It was the absolute contempt and indifference 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:23.520 of the Moscow and Petersburg liberal intelligentsia to the mass 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:27.440 of the Russian population. They absolutely despise them. Well, there 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:33.000 were reasons they despise them as ignorant Soviet educated backward, 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:38.160 but in the meantime, the liberals fell absolutely headlong for 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:46.640 every Western latest intellectual and moral fashion, while being totally 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:50.760 indifferent to the suffering of ordinary Russians in these years, 0:03:50.760 --> 0:03:55.880 and especially older Russians, and Putin's most important base but 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.839 also the one he's most afraid of, are in fact, 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:04.480 the pensioners it's rather funny Putin crushes other opponents with 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:08.440 police force and battles and tear gas. You can't do 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.400 that to grandmothers. And whenever the grandmothers start to protest, 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:15.840 Putin backs down because for them he paid their pensions 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:18.200 on time. I mean, that was as important as anything else. 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:22.799 Do you see him, despite everything, as relatively stable in power. 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:27.640 Wells Jogi Berra said about never making predictions, especially about 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:30.720 the future. So I say this with hesitation, but yes, 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:34.640 I think so. Now. There was of course a very 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:39.840 serious wobble because he and his cronies well launched the 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:44.440 Ukraine War and then hideously mismanaged it, in part because 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:47.919 of the corruption that they had tolerated or even encouraged 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:52.360 within the Russian military. And there was the co attempt 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:55.760 by one of his cronies, Pregosion of Wagner. But he 0:04:55.800 --> 0:05:02.080 overcame that, in part, of course, because Pregosian was hoping 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:05.440 that enough of the army would mutiny junior officers and 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:08.800 soldiers on his side because of anger at the way 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:11.600 that the war had been mismanaged. But of course they 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:13.320 all knew that if they did that, that was the 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:17.440 shortest road to defeat. In Ukraine, and first they didn't 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:20.000 want to be defeated. But also, of course they don't 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:23.680 need to learn the history of the Weimar Republic to 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:26.080 know that if you're trying to come to power as 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:29.840 a new regime, you don't want to inherit defeat. So yes, 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:34.320 I think he's relatively stable unless the economy completely collapses. 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:38.560 But it's in trouble, but it showed no sign of 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:39.839 collapse yet. 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:43.520 Given the Russian capacity for endurance, what we would think 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:45.920 of is the terrible recession. They would think of as normal. 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:50.440 Yeah, and they went through much worse the older ones 0:05:50.480 --> 0:05:53.720 in the nineties. And what the nineties, on top of 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:58.599 the terrible experiences of Russia in the twentieth century left 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:03.600 ordinary Russians is this deep fear of chaos, of anarchy, 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:09.480 of civil strife and violence, and that does make them 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:13.840 naturally conservative. The old British poem always keep tight hold 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:17.120 of nurse for fear of finding something worse. The Russians 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:20.480 have a kind of absolute gut feeling of that. 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:25.960 If I understand you from their perspective, an authoritarian regime 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:31.520 that blocks the criminals and that blocks the chaos is 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:35.919 preferable to a soft regime that allows the society to decay. 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:41.080 Well, that's right. And if you talk to small businessmen 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:46.120 or business women in Russia, they dislike the corruption of 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:50.039 the top elites in Moscow. But the ones who are 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:53.920 around in the nineteen nineties or whose parents were still 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:57.760 say that now is much better because you know, in 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:02.400 the nineties the mafia was everywhere. There were competing mafias 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:08.320 all extorting from small businesses and ruining them. And now 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:10.800 you know, it's got much more regular. It's you know, 0:07:10.840 --> 0:07:13.760 if you like it's you make your payments to the police, 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:17.000 Widows and Orphans Fund, and they do protect you against 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:21.800 the mafia. And so it's sort of become a regular, predictable, 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:24.880 limited form of corruption that businessmen can live with. 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:27.800 You know, those I think parents that we just don't 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:31.760 appreciate in the West, that fit the historic experience. And 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.840 I think also if you remember that two weeks before 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:39.000 the Russian attack on Ukraine, the chairman of the Joint 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:41.960 Chiefs of Staff, General Milly, testified in front of a 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.120 Senate committee he thought the Russians would be in Ukraine 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:47.680 in three days. So it's not abnormal that the Russians 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:50.040 thought they'd be in Kievan three days and then it 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:51.320 just all fell apart. 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:55.520 That's right, But you know, all the same, I actually 0:07:55.640 --> 0:07:58.720 expect them to try and go for the whole country, 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:01.480 because I didn't think that they had the troops to 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:03.280 do that. I thought they were going to seize the 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:06.000 Russian speaking areas of the east and south, which they 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:08.320 could have done if they ignored Kiev and gone for that. 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:10.960 Then they were going to try to negotiate on that 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.960 basis and do a deal, which of course they did 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:19.000 in March of twenty twenty two. But by then they 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:25.720 had already suffered so many defeats that their bargaining position 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:29.160 had gone way down, and the Ukrainians were able, i mean, 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.640 possibly foolishly, but still to refuse to do that deal. 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:35.480 And of course the Russians were also still asking some 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:37.960 absolutely unacceptable things, as they are today. 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:42.640 Seems to me that it's pretty clear that Putin's interest 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:47.920 is a totally neutralized Ukraine, incapable of defending itself. 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.880 Yep, that's what the Russians are asking for or demanding, 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:56.600 But of course the Ukrainians will never agree to that. 0:08:57.080 --> 0:08:59.920 I think it's possible that you might get a deal, 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:03.560 which is the terms of the Austrian State Treaty in 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:06.880 nineteen fifty four that the Ukrainians give up certain categories 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:10.079 of weapons like long range missiles that are capable of 0:09:10.120 --> 0:09:13.040 striking deep in Russia. But that's as far as they 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:18.679 can go in my view. And look, maybe if the 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:23.079 Russians go on and on, the Ukrainian army will collapse. 0:09:23.679 --> 0:09:26.320 But as everyone says over the past year, I mean, 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:30.360 the Russians have been making progress, but very very slowly 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:34.800 and with heavy casualties. So you know, in the end, 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:37.520 I'm afraid this will be decided on the battlefield, and 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:40.160 we just don't know, We cannot be sure what's going 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:41.359 to happen on the battlefield. 0:09:56.720 --> 0:10:01.439 Were you surprised by the Ukrainian ability to drive trucks 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.079 thirty four hundred miles from Kiev and then have them 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:10.280 launch automated drones that were reasonably effective in taking out 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.040 very expensive aircraft. 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:14.720 Well I was, yes, I mean it was clearly a 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:18.760 brilliantly planned operation, I mean, a masterpiece of its kind. 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:23.240 But then of course, you know, look at what is 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:27.760 the miss terrorists have been able to do inside Russia 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.520 over the years, these ghastly massacres, I mean, of course 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:34.560 this has happened in Europe as well, but then you know, 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.400 putin state is a kind of police state. You expect 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:40.520 police states to be able to stop this kind of thing. Clearly, 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:44.760 the Russian system is also very incompetent and leaky. 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:47.120 I mean, the whole idea that you could drive these 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:50.320 trucks and not a single one of them got picked 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:52.680 up struck me as amazing. 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:57.040 Yeah, well, you know, could have been bribes to the 0:10:57.040 --> 0:11:00.840 police along the way if you claimed that these trucks 0:11:00.880 --> 0:11:03.880 were actually full of some kind of smuggled goods and 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:07.360 then paid the police a few thousand dollars to let 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.720 them throw and not to check. And of course the 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:13.760 thing is, just as there are so many Russians in Ukraine, 0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:18.559 there are millions and millions and millions of Ukrainians in Russia, 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:25.199 and so it's not that you could spot Ukrainian agents automatically, 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:29.320 and they clearly have a network within Russia. From that 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:31.200 point of view, it's almost a little bit like the 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:33.400 IRA in Britain in the past. 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:35.960 Does that just make it interesting or does it make 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:39.920 it a serious sign that the Ukrainians may be able 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:44.440 to balance off Russian mass by being more agile and 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:45.200 more inventive. 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:49.840 Well, I think the real thing that's holding the Russians 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:55.160 back on the battlefield is the change of military technology. 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.240 Many people have made the analogy with the First World War, 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:00.840 and I think that's right in many ways, because I 0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:05.240 was in Ukraine and talked to Ukrainian veterans and what 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:07.200 they said was, you know, we hear all these reports 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:11.320 of supposed Russian human waive attacks and meat attacks. They said, 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:14.800 that's absolute nonsense. They said, you cannot do that because 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:20.280 the battlefields are absolutely choked with mines, and of course 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:22.840 you can clear minefields, but it takes a long time, 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:27.679 and somebody trying to clear a minefield in the open 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:31.200 with a drone hovering overhead as a dead man. The 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.360 Russians can't bring tanks up to the front line. So 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:37.560 this whole old Russian approach, or what we thought of 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:40.680 in the Cold War of a huge tank army sweeping 0:12:40.760 --> 0:12:43.840 forwards and you know, advancing over hundreds of miles just 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:48.120 not possible. And they're bringing up their reinforcements to the 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:52.000 front line, apparently in groups the smallest three, because anything 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:55.119 bigger will be spotted by drones and destroyed. 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.959 Given how inexpensive some of the drones are. Now, how 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:02.760 much should we be re thinking the American defense system 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:04.840 in the light of these capabilities. 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.679 Well, I think we should be rethinking it very seriously, 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:12.280 as should the Europeans, because I think it does mean, 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:16.439 for example, that the Europeans could stop a Russian attack 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:20.760 on Europe but relatively low cost, which would give them 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:24.600 time to build up their own defenses. As far as 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.280 America is concerned, well, one thing, you know, well, several 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:31.040 European countries have already withdrawn from the Anti land Mine Treaty. 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:33.400 America was never part of it because of South Korea. 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:36.480 But mines, in my view, are well they're not good, 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:39.520 of course, they're hideous things, but they are critical to 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:40.720 the battlefield now. 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:44.000 Which means that we're moving towards the defense having a 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:45.679 great advantages over the offense. 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:49.880 Well, that's right. And for Taiwan this has two very 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:54.360 interesting things. I think One is if the Taiwanese are 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:58.559 actually prepared to spend a lot of money and build 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:03.800 up their defenses, they can really deter and badly damage 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:08.440 Chinese attempt at invasion. I think the Chinese would suffer 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:12.360 very heavily. But on the other hand, of course, this 0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:16.360 is very worrying for the US Navy if the Chinese 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:21.480 instead impose a naval blockade on Taiwan, because look at 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.240 what happened to the Black Sea Fleet. I mean something 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:26.680 that I got completely wrong, but I have to say 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:29.200 so did every other analyst I know. Is that we 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.800 thought that the Black Sea Fleet would simply dominate the 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:34.320 Russian Black Sea Fleet would dominate the Black Sea. The 0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:38.240 Ukrainians had no navy at all. Instead, they have defeated 0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:41.640 and very badly damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet, forced 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:45.720 it out of its base in Crimea, simply with land 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:50.240 based missiles, drones, seaborn drones as well as airborn drones. 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:54.680 You have an eleven billion dollar aircraft carrier, and you 0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:59.840 have seventeen hundred Chinese merchant ships that visited the US 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.800 last year. Now, it would be pretty easy to put 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:07.040 ten or twenty or thirty drones on every merchant ship. 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:10.400 We wouldn't have another ammunition to stop all. 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:14.480 Look what the Ukrainians did, you know, containers full of 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:18.160 drones operated from a distance. But on the other hand, 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:19.800 you know, if you look at the First and Second 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.560 World Wars, it hasn't perhaps been sufficiently noticed because it 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:26.640 wasn't very dramatic, unlike the Great Naval battles. But of course, 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:30.760 if China can blockade Taiwan, the US Navy can still 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:35.560 blockade the whole of China's maritime trade. China still doesn't 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.240 have a blue water navy that could unblock the Straits 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.480 of Malacca or challenge America in the Indian Ocean. Now, 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:43.440 of course that's a key reason why the Chinese are 0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:47.520 building Belton Road and their overland energy supplies. But I 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.720 think that is a good deterrent against the Chinese. Look, 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:54.520 you may think you can force Taiwan into surrender, but 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:57.040 we can blockade you the way that the British did 0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:59.080 to the Germans, which, of course, in the First War 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:01.480 War at least crippled the German economy and eventually won 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:01.800 the war. 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.800 There's a bill which I have frankly have encouraged in 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:09.960 the Senate that has eighty co sponsors on basically draconian 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:13.480 sanctions against Russia, which Trump doesn't seem to be very 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.520 happy with. But at the same time, I have a 0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:20.080 hunch that as things above, the Senators may pass it anyway, 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.040 and at eighty you really have a pretty big statement. 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.720 How do you see this dance continuing over the next 0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:28.360 six months? 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:32.280 What would you expect? Well, I mean, on this bill. 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:38.040 The real problem is countries like India, and above all India, 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:43.200 which are of course very important US partners, but are 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:49.400 very heavily dependent on imports of Russian oil and LNG. 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.680 And the Indians they have this tremendous sense of themselves 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:57.040 as a great independent power and as a partner of 0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:01.440 the US, but not a satellite or dependency. Is America 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:05.080 really going to slap five hundred percent tariffs on Indian 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:11.200 imports and other countries South Korea that are important US allies. 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.480 I mean, so I think somewhat the Europeans are doing 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:17.720 it may be more effective, but I think we've already 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:21.760 learned there isn't an economic knockout blow against Russia. There's pressure, 0:17:22.200 --> 0:17:25.359 there isn't a ko as to what will happen in 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:27.960 the next six months, you know, as President Trump has said, 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:31.159 he's going to walk away from the peace process. The 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:35.239 big question though, is does the US continue military and 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:40.959 above all intelligence aid to Ukraine. I think intelligence is 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:45.280 more important than weapons, even because without US satellite intelligence 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.199 and the Ukrainians don't know when the Russians are building up 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:52.919 their forces. Without terrain mapping, they can't actually fire the 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:55.640 European cruise missiles they've been given because they can't hit 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:59.360 their targets, and without starlink they can't talk to each other. 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:03.600 So if that is cut, the Ukrainians will be in 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:10.320 very serious trouble. I mean, if it's not, then we will, 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:15.080 I think, see a continuation on the battlefield of this 0:18:15.200 --> 0:18:20.320 war of attrition. Plus the Russians, as they've been doing 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:22.320 in the past couple of days, trying to wear down 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:27.040 the Ukrainian economy by attacking above all Ukrainian's energy infrastructure, 0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:30.800 we will have to see by the First World War analogy. 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:34.280 On the one hand, you can have a stalemate lasting 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:36.919 for years. On the other hand, as you well know, 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:41.760 eventually one side or the other did crack. And it 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.160 doesn't seem to me that if either side cracks, it's 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.399 going to be the Russians. And so there is this 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.640 risk that eventually the Ukrainians well above all, will run 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:54.159 out of men because we can provide well. Our stocks 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:56.960 are now very low, but still we can corn providing 0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:00.879 weapons to the Ukrainians and intelligence unless we send our 0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:03.960 own armies, which every administration has vowed not to do. 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:07.120 We can't provide men for the Ukrainians, and that's their 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:08.440 gracious weakness. I think. 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:27.520 In the middle of all this, as you know, President 0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:31.320 Trump spoke with Putin and then posted on truth Social 0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:33.879 sort of his version of what they talked about. And 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:36.520 it was a little chilling in that he said. The 0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:39.840 call lasted approximately an hour and fifteen minutes. We discussed 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:43.080 the attack on Russia's dock airplanes by Ukraine, and also 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:45.840 various other attacks have been taking place by both sides. 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:48.320 It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that 0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:51.280 will lead to immediate peace. President Putin did say and 0:19:51.440 --> 0:19:53.600 very strongly, that he will have to respond to the 0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:56.520 recent attack on the airfields. He promptly turns it and says, 0:19:56.560 --> 0:20:00.480 we also discussed Iran. It's as though I like to 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.120 have Russia as an ally, but he knows he really 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:05.880 ought to try to get peace in Ukraine and he's 0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.360 sort of torn between the two strategic goals. 0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:11.560 Well, I think that's right. I think the problem as 0:20:11.600 --> 0:20:15.119 well is that, for reasons I don't fully understand that 0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:20.679 Trump administration has not put together a professional team with 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:26.880 the detailed knowledge to be able to negotiate with Russia, 0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:30.040 because as far as I can see, the only hope 0:20:30.880 --> 0:20:36.680 is that you get Russia to withdraw or reduce its 0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:40.880 demands on Ukraine the things that the Ukrainians cannot accept, 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:46.800 withdrawal from more territory disarmament in return giving the Russians 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:49.959 some of what they want. That's also in accordance with 0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:54.280 Trump administration policy when it comes to US Russian relations 0:20:54.680 --> 0:20:58.000 because clearly, I mean Putin is very anxious not to 0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:01.960 completely ruin his relationship with Trump. And there you're talking 0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:06.600 about new arms control agreements, talking about maybe limiting US 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:10.080 forces in Europe, which is what Trump wants to do anyway, 0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:14.560 You're talking about some kind of institutionalized you recognition of 0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:19.359 a Russian, say, in European security, and of course if 0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:23.320 you're looking at an end to further NATO expansion, which 0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:26.600 I think Trump is totally uninterested in any way. So 0:21:27.040 --> 0:21:30.280 there are things we can offer the Russians that could 0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:35.439 potentially lead them to reduce their demands on Ukraine. But 0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:38.560 of course, under the surface, but not entirely under the surface, 0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:41.880 there's a big debate going on within the Russian establishment. 0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:45.320 Over this, there are the hardliners who really do want 0:21:45.359 --> 0:21:48.960 to press on for complete victory in Ukraine, and the 0:21:48.960 --> 0:21:52.400 others who are saying, look, this isn't militarily possible, it's 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:54.679 not worth it anyway. You know, all we get is 0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:57.720 a keep of ruins populated by people who hate us. 0:21:58.240 --> 0:22:00.960 So let's try and do a deal. I think both 0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:03.800 of those elements are present in Putin's mind from what 0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:06.880 I gather, so we need to find a way to 0:22:06.880 --> 0:22:08.720 strengthen the one and diminish the other. 0:22:09.320 --> 0:22:12.199 How seriously do you take the worry that if he 0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:16.520 does win in Ukraine, that it puts Estonia, Lautfia, Lithuania 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:18.960 and Finland under an increased threat. 0:22:20.359 --> 0:22:23.400 I don't, to be honest, partly because look, I mean, 0:22:23.400 --> 0:22:25.760 if you see the problems that Russia has faced in 0:22:25.960 --> 0:22:29.960 Ukraine and its failures to launch a direct attack on 0:22:30.080 --> 0:22:35.040 NATO would be hideously risky, and the question then is 0:22:35.119 --> 0:22:38.359 what do you actually get out of this? But also 0:22:38.480 --> 0:22:40.920 there's a contradiction here because many people have said, and 0:22:40.960 --> 0:22:44.040 in part quite rightly, they're not just Putin, but Russians 0:22:44.119 --> 0:22:47.280 have this particular obsession with Ukraine for a whole set 0:22:47.320 --> 0:22:52.800 of historical ethnic, cultural, whatever reasons. But the Russians don't 0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:55.760 have these feelings about the Baltic States and certainly not 0:22:55.840 --> 0:22:59.480 about Finland. The Russians are a bit bewildered about Finland 0:22:59.560 --> 0:23:02.080 joining later because they said, look, we haven't done anything 0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:05.320 to Finland since nineteen forty four. We've never threatened Finland. 0:23:05.320 --> 0:23:07.800 We always had a good relationship with Finland. We like 0:23:07.880 --> 0:23:11.439 the Finns. What's going on here. The Russians didn't like 0:23:12.440 --> 0:23:15.800 NATO enlargement to Poland and the Baltic States, but you know, 0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:18.960 if you remember, they never did anything about it, and 0:23:18.960 --> 0:23:22.000 they could have done. The Russians could have really stirred 0:23:22.080 --> 0:23:26.120 up the Russian minorities in Latvia and Estonia to revolt. 0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:29.760 They could have carried out terrorist attacks and then tried 0:23:29.760 --> 0:23:34.199 to stimulate ethnic conflict. They could have laid claim to 0:23:34.440 --> 0:23:37.920 Russian majority areas on Russia's borders. They didn't do any 0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:42.320 of that because it wasn't worth a catastrophic clash with 0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:45.760 NATO for the sake of the Baltic States. But if 0:23:45.760 --> 0:23:49.159 they didn't do it, then there really isn't a reason 0:23:49.560 --> 0:23:52.400 why they would do it now. Also, I think there 0:23:52.480 --> 0:23:56.360 is this desire, certainly to get on with Trump and 0:23:56.480 --> 0:24:00.840 hopefully his successor Republican success, whoever that is. There's also, 0:24:00.920 --> 0:24:03.199 of course still this desire to reach out to the 0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:06.239 right in Europe, who of course have if you look 0:24:06.280 --> 0:24:08.320 at the pen in France and so forth, they've lined 0:24:08.400 --> 0:24:11.960 up by NATO against the Russian invasion. But still they 0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:16.440 and their supporters are not at all enthusiastic about unlimited 0:24:16.640 --> 0:24:20.680 permanent support for Ukraine. If you ought a direct attack 0:24:21.320 --> 0:24:23.879 on NATO and the European Union, because of course all 0:24:23.880 --> 0:24:26.359 these countries are also you members, well, all that simply 0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:29.600 goes out of the window. Then you have well the 0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:32.800 risk of nuclear catastrophe, but you also have of course 0:24:33.040 --> 0:24:37.920 a permanently foreseeable time rect relationship with the West, and 0:24:38.080 --> 0:24:41.199 of course you put yourself even more deeply in the 0:24:41.240 --> 0:24:44.880 pockets of the Chinese. Now. The Russians are being very 0:24:44.920 --> 0:24:48.040 disciplined in public about not talking about their fears in 0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:50.280 this regard, but believe me, if you talk to them 0:24:50.280 --> 0:24:52.919 in private, a lot of them are very unhappy with 0:24:53.040 --> 0:24:55.879 the way in which Russia is becoming dependent on China. 0:24:56.359 --> 0:24:58.640 Goes right to the heart of going all the way 0:24:58.640 --> 0:25:01.720 back to the Mongol yoke and the fear of being 0:25:01.760 --> 0:25:05.119