1 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: On this episode of its World. Last week, Ukraine attacked 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,400 Speaker 1: Russia with drones, launching them from semi trucks and destroyed 3 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: or damage at least a dozen Russian aircraft, including many 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: of Moscow's nuclear capable strategic bombers. On Friday, Russia responded 5 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: by launching four hundred and seven drones in decoys, nearly 6 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: forty crews missiles, and six ballistic missiles from land, air, 7 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: and sea at towns and cities across the breadth of 8 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 1: the nation. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, it appeared 9 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: to be the second largest drone assault of the war, 10 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,559 Speaker 1: after Russia launched nearly five hundred drones last weekend. As 11 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine escalates, how will the United States respond? 12 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: I'm really pleased to welcome my guests, Anatole Levin. He 13 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 1: is the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy 14 00:00:50,600 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: Institute for Responsible State CREP. Anatole, welcome and thank you 15 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: for joining me. 16 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 2: On news World. Nice to be here. How long have 17 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:08,839 Speaker 2: you been. 18 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: Looking at Ukraine and Ukraine Russian relations? 19 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 2: Since nineteen ninety when I was a British journalist for 20 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 2: London Times. It was sent out to the then Soviet 21 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 2: Union and spent seven years there. I visited Ukraine a lot, 22 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: I can't remember how many times in those years. And 23 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: then I wrote a book about the Ukrainian Russian relationship 24 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 2: called A Fraternal Rivalry, which came out in nineteen ninety nine. 25 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: And so you were actually there during the whole transition 26 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: from the Soviet Union to Russia and from a Russia 27 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: trying to grapple with openness to the rise of Putin. 28 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 1: I was, yes, were you surprised by the rise of Putin? 29 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 2: No? I mean, in fact, given what happened to Russia 30 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: in the nineteen nineties, I was afraid at the time 31 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 2: that it could be even worse, that you could have, 32 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 2: I mean out right fascism and persecution of national minorities 33 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: and civil war. Of course, what we've got has been bad, 34 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 2: but in Russia things can always be worse, because you 35 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 2: had a combination of things that very few countries have 36 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 2: faced before, which was a combination of the loss of empire, 37 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 2: because that's really what the Soviet Union was. Now. Of 38 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 2: course other countries went through that, Britain went through it, 39 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 2: France went through it, but that was combined with catastrophic 40 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 2: economic collapse whereas one of the things that made the 41 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 2: loss of Empire easier for the British and French in 42 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 2: the fifties and sixties was that these were years of 43 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 2: great economic prosperity and expansion. And then on top of 44 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 2: that you had the end of communist ideology, which left 45 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 2: people morally and intellectually and ideologically completely at sea. And 46 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 2: so I was expecting backlash against the backlash is what 47 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 2: we got. I mean also, I have to say, and 48 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 2: this alerted me in advance to some of the things 49 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,119 Speaker 2: that we've seen, well we're already seeing. We've seen much 50 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 2: more since then. It was the absolute contempt and indifference 51 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 2: of the Moscow and Petersburg liberal intelligentsia to the mass 52 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: of the Russian population. They absolutely despise them. Well, there 53 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 2: were reasons they despise them as ignorant Soviet educated backward, 54 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 2: but in the meantime, the liberals fell absolutely headlong for 55 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: every Western latest intellectual and moral fashion, while being totally 56 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 2: indifferent to the suffering of ordinary Russians in these years, 57 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 2: and especially older Russians, and Putin's most important base but 58 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,839 Speaker 2: also the one he's most afraid of, are in fact, 59 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 2: the pensioners it's rather funny Putin crushes other opponents with 60 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: police force and battles and tear gas. You can't do 61 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 2: that to grandmothers. And whenever the grandmothers start to protest, 62 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 2: Putin backs down because for them he paid their pensions 63 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 2: on time. I mean, that was as important as anything else. 64 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,799 Speaker 1: Do you see him, despite everything, as relatively stable in power. 65 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 2: Wells Jogi Berra said about never making predictions, especially about 66 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,720 Speaker 2: the future. So I say this with hesitation, but yes, 67 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 2: I think so. Now. There was of course a very 68 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 2: serious wobble because he and his cronies well launched the 69 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 2: Ukraine War and then hideously mismanaged it, in part because 70 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,919 Speaker 2: of the corruption that they had tolerated or even encouraged 71 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 2: within the Russian military. And there was the co attempt 72 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 2: by one of his cronies, Pregosion of Wagner. But he 73 00:04:55,800 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: overcame that, in part, of course, because Pregosian was hoping 74 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 2: that enough of the army would mutiny junior officers and 75 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 2: soldiers on his side because of anger at the way 76 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 2: that the war had been mismanaged. But of course they 77 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 2: all knew that if they did that, that was the 78 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 2: shortest road to defeat. In Ukraine, and first they didn't 79 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 2: want to be defeated. But also, of course they don't 80 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 2: need to learn the history of the Weimar Republic to 81 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 2: know that if you're trying to come to power as 82 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 2: a new regime, you don't want to inherit defeat. So yes, 83 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 2: I think he's relatively stable unless the economy completely collapses. 84 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 2: But it's in trouble, but it showed no sign of 85 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 2: collapse yet. 86 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: Given the Russian capacity for endurance, what we would think 87 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: of is the terrible recession. They would think of as normal. 88 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, and they went through much worse the older ones 89 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 2: in the nineties. And what the nineties, on top of 90 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 2: the terrible experiences of Russia in the twentieth century left 91 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 2: ordinary Russians is this deep fear of chaos, of anarchy, 92 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 2: of civil strife and violence, and that does make them 93 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,840 Speaker 2: naturally conservative. The old British poem always keep tight hold 94 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: of nurse for fear of finding something worse. The Russians 95 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 2: have a kind of absolute gut feeling of that. 96 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: If I understand you from their perspective, an authoritarian regime 97 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: that blocks the criminals and that blocks the chaos is 98 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,919 Speaker 1: preferable to a soft regime that allows the society to decay. 99 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 2: Well, that's right. And if you talk to small businessmen 100 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 2: or business women in Russia, they dislike the corruption of 101 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 2: the top elites in Moscow. But the ones who are 102 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 2: around in the nineteen nineties or whose parents were still 103 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 2: say that now is much better because you know, in 104 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: the nineties the mafia was everywhere. There were competing mafias 105 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 2: all extorting from small businesses and ruining them. And now 106 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 2: you know, it's got much more regular. It's you know, 107 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 2: if you like it's you make your payments to the police, 108 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 2: Widows and Orphans Fund, and they do protect you against 109 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 2: the mafia. And so it's sort of become a regular, predictable, 110 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 2: limited form of corruption that businessmen can live with. 111 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 1: You know, those I think parents that we just don't 112 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 1: appreciate in the West, that fit the historic experience. And 113 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: I think also if you remember that two weeks before 114 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: the Russian attack on Ukraine, the chairman of the Joint 115 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: Chiefs of Staff, General Milly, testified in front of a 116 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 1: Senate committee he thought the Russians would be in Ukraine 117 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: in three days. So it's not abnormal that the Russians 118 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: thought they'd be in Kievan three days and then it 119 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 1: just all fell apart. 120 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 2: That's right, But you know, all the same, I actually 121 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 2: expect them to try and go for the whole country, 122 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 2: because I didn't think that they had the troops to 123 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 2: do that. I thought they were going to seize the 124 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 2: Russian speaking areas of the east and south, which they 125 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 2: could have done if they ignored Kiev and gone for that. 126 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 2: Then they were going to try to negotiate on that 127 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 2: basis and do a deal, which of course they did 128 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 2: in March of twenty twenty two. But by then they 129 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 2: had already suffered so many defeats that their bargaining position 130 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 2: had gone way down, and the Ukrainians were able, i mean, 131 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 2: possibly foolishly, but still to refuse to do that deal. 132 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 2: And of course the Russians were also still asking some 133 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 2: absolutely unacceptable things, as they are today. 134 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: Seems to me that it's pretty clear that Putin's interest 135 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: is a totally neutralized Ukraine, incapable of defending itself. 136 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 2: Yep, that's what the Russians are asking for or demanding, 137 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 2: But of course the Ukrainians will never agree to that. 138 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 2: I think it's possible that you might get a deal, 139 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: which is the terms of the Austrian State Treaty in 140 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 2: nineteen fifty four that the Ukrainians give up certain categories 141 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,079 Speaker 2: of weapons like long range missiles that are capable of 142 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 2: striking deep in Russia. But that's as far as they 143 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 2: can go in my view. And look, maybe if the 144 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:23,079 Speaker 2: Russians go on and on, the Ukrainian army will collapse. 145 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 2: But as everyone says over the past year, I mean, 146 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 2: the Russians have been making progress, but very very slowly 147 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 2: and with heavy casualties. So you know, in the end, 148 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 2: I'm afraid this will be decided on the battlefield, and 149 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 2: we just don't know, We cannot be sure what's going 150 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:41,359 Speaker 2: to happen on the battlefield. 151 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:01,439 Speaker 1: Were you surprised by the Ukrainian ability to drive trucks 152 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:05,079 Speaker 1: thirty four hundred miles from Kiev and then have them 153 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: launch automated drones that were reasonably effective in taking out 154 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: very expensive aircraft. 155 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 2: Well I was, yes, I mean it was clearly a 156 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 2: brilliantly planned operation, I mean, a masterpiece of its kind. 157 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 2: But then of course, you know, look at what is 158 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 2: the miss terrorists have been able to do inside Russia 159 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 2: over the years, these ghastly massacres, I mean, of course 160 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 2: this has happened in Europe as well, but then you know, 161 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 2: putin state is a kind of police state. You expect 162 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 2: police states to be able to stop this kind of thing. Clearly, 163 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 2: the Russian system is also very incompetent and leaky. 164 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: I mean, the whole idea that you could drive these 165 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: trucks and not a single one of them got picked 166 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 1: up struck me as amazing. 167 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know, could have been bribes to the 168 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 2: police along the way if you claimed that these trucks 169 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 2: were actually full of some kind of smuggled goods and 170 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 2: then paid the police a few thousand dollars to let 171 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 2: them throw and not to check. And of course the 172 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 2: thing is, just as there are so many Russians in Ukraine, 173 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 2: there are millions and millions and millions of Ukrainians in Russia, 174 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:25,199 Speaker 2: and so it's not that you could spot Ukrainian agents automatically, 175 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 2: and they clearly have a network within Russia. From that 176 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 2: point of view, it's almost a little bit like the 177 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 2: IRA in Britain in the past. 178 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 1: Does that just make it interesting or does it make 179 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: it a serious sign that the Ukrainians may be able 180 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: to balance off Russian mass by being more agile and 181 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 1: more inventive. 182 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 2: Well, I think the real thing that's holding the Russians 183 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 2: back on the battlefield is the change of military technology. 184 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 2: Many people have made the analogy with the First World War, 185 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 2: and I think that's right in many ways, because I 186 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 2: was in Ukraine and talked to Ukrainian veterans and what 187 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 2: they said was, you know, we hear all these reports 188 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 2: of supposed Russian human waive attacks and meat attacks. They said, 189 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 2: that's absolute nonsense. They said, you cannot do that because 190 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 2: the battlefields are absolutely choked with mines, and of course 191 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 2: you can clear minefields, but it takes a long time, 192 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 2: and somebody trying to clear a minefield in the open 193 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 2: with a drone hovering overhead as a dead man. The 194 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 2: Russians can't bring tanks up to the front line. So 195 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 2: this whole old Russian approach, or what we thought of 196 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 2: in the Cold War of a huge tank army sweeping 197 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 2: forwards and you know, advancing over hundreds of miles just 198 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 2: not possible. And they're bringing up their reinforcements to the 199 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 2: front line, apparently in groups the smallest three, because anything 200 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,119 Speaker 2: bigger will be spotted by drones and destroyed. 201 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:58,959 Speaker 1: Given how inexpensive some of the drones are. Now, how 202 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: much should we be re thinking the American defense system 203 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: in the light of these capabilities. 204 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 2: Well, I think we should be rethinking it very seriously, 205 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 2: as should the Europeans, because I think it does mean, 206 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 2: for example, that the Europeans could stop a Russian attack 207 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 2: on Europe but relatively low cost, which would give them 208 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 2: time to build up their own defenses. As far as 209 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 2: America is concerned, well, one thing, you know, well, several 210 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 2: European countries have already withdrawn from the Anti land Mine Treaty. 211 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 2: America was never part of it because of South Korea. 212 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 2: But mines, in my view, are well they're not good, 213 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 2: of course, they're hideous things, but they are critical to 214 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 2: the battlefield now. 215 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 1: Which means that we're moving towards the defense having a 216 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:45,679 Speaker 1: great advantages over the offense. 217 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 2: Well, that's right. And for Taiwan this has two very 218 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 2: interesting things. I think One is if the Taiwanese are 219 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 2: actually prepared to spend a lot of money and build 220 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 2: up their defenses, they can really deter and badly damage 221 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:08,440 Speaker 2: Chinese attempt at invasion. I think the Chinese would suffer 222 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 2: very heavily. But on the other hand, of course, this 223 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 2: is very worrying for the US Navy if the Chinese 224 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 2: instead impose a naval blockade on Taiwan, because look at 225 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 2: what happened to the Black Sea Fleet. I mean something 226 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 2: that I got completely wrong, but I have to say 227 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 2: so did every other analyst I know. Is that we 228 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 2: thought that the Black Sea Fleet would simply dominate the 229 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 2: Russian Black Sea Fleet would dominate the Black Sea. The 230 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 2: Ukrainians had no navy at all. Instead, they have defeated 231 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 2: and very badly damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet, forced 232 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 2: it out of its base in Crimea, simply with land 233 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 2: based missiles, drones, seaborn drones as well as airborn drones. 234 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: You have an eleven billion dollar aircraft carrier, and you 235 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 1: have seventeen hundred Chinese merchant ships that visited the US 236 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: last year. Now, it would be pretty easy to put 237 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 1: ten or twenty or thirty drones on every merchant ship. 238 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: We wouldn't have another ammunition to stop all. 239 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 2: Look what the Ukrainians did, you know, containers full of 240 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 2: drones operated from a distance. But on the other hand, 241 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 2: you know, if you look at the First and Second 242 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 2: World Wars, it hasn't perhaps been sufficiently noticed because it 243 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 2: wasn't very dramatic, unlike the Great Naval battles. But of course, 244 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 2: if China can blockade Taiwan, the US Navy can still 245 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 2: blockade the whole of China's maritime trade. China still doesn't 246 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 2: have a blue water navy that could unblock the Straits 247 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 2: of Malacca or challenge America in the Indian Ocean. Now, 248 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 2: of course that's a key reason why the Chinese are 249 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 2: building Belton Road and their overland energy supplies. But I 250 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 2: think that is a good deterrent against the Chinese. Look, 251 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 2: you may think you can force Taiwan into surrender, but 252 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 2: we can blockade you the way that the British did 253 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 2: to the Germans, which, of course, in the First War 254 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 2: War at least crippled the German economy and eventually won 255 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 2: the war. 256 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 1: There's a bill which I have frankly have encouraged in 257 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: the Senate that has eighty co sponsors on basically draconian 258 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: sanctions against Russia, which Trump doesn't seem to be very 259 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: happy with. But at the same time, I have a 260 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: hunch that as things above, the Senators may pass it anyway, 261 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: and at eighty you really have a pretty big statement. 262 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: How do you see this dance continuing over the next 263 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 1: six months? 264 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 2: What would you expect? Well, I mean, on this bill. 265 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 2: The real problem is countries like India, and above all India, 266 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 2: which are of course very important US partners, but are 267 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 2: very heavily dependent on imports of Russian oil and LNG. 268 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 2: And the Indians they have this tremendous sense of themselves 269 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 2: as a great independent power and as a partner of 270 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 2: the US, but not a satellite or dependency. Is America 271 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 2: really going to slap five hundred percent tariffs on Indian 272 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 2: imports and other countries South Korea that are important US allies. 273 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 2: I mean, so I think somewhat the Europeans are doing 274 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 2: it may be more effective, but I think we've already 275 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 2: learned there isn't an economic knockout blow against Russia. There's pressure, 276 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 2: there isn't a ko as to what will happen in 277 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 2: the next six months, you know, as President Trump has said, 278 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:31,159 Speaker 2: he's going to walk away from the peace process. The 279 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,239 Speaker 2: big question though, is does the US continue military and 280 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:40,959 Speaker 2: above all intelligence aid to Ukraine. I think intelligence is 281 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 2: more important than weapons, even because without US satellite intelligence 282 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,199 Speaker 2: and the Ukrainians don't know when the Russians are building up 283 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:52,919 Speaker 2: their forces. Without terrain mapping, they can't actually fire the 284 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,640 Speaker 2: European cruise missiles they've been given because they can't hit 285 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:59,360 Speaker 2: their targets, and without starlink they can't talk to each other. 286 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 2: So if that is cut, the Ukrainians will be in 287 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 2: very serious trouble. I mean, if it's not, then we will, 288 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 2: I think, see a continuation on the battlefield of this 289 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 2: war of attrition. Plus the Russians, as they've been doing 290 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 2: in the past couple of days, trying to wear down 291 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 2: the Ukrainian economy by attacking above all Ukrainian's energy infrastructure, 292 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 2: we will have to see by the First World War analogy. 293 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 2: On the one hand, you can have a stalemate lasting 294 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 2: for years. On the other hand, as you well know, 295 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 2: eventually one side or the other did crack. And it 296 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,160 Speaker 2: doesn't seem to me that if either side cracks, it's 297 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 2: going to be the Russians. And so there is this 298 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,640 Speaker 2: risk that eventually the Ukrainians well above all, will run 299 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 2: out of men because we can provide well. Our stocks 300 00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 2: are now very low, but still we can corn providing 301 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 2: weapons to the Ukrainians and intelligence unless we send our 302 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 2: own armies, which every administration has vowed not to do. 303 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,120 Speaker 2: We can't provide men for the Ukrainians, and that's their 304 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 2: gracious weakness. I think. 305 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: In the middle of all this, as you know, President 306 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: Trump spoke with Putin and then posted on truth Social 307 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 1: sort of his version of what they talked about. And 308 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 1: it was a little chilling in that he said. The 309 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: call lasted approximately an hour and fifteen minutes. We discussed 310 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 1: the attack on Russia's dock airplanes by Ukraine, and also 311 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 1: various other attacks have been taking place by both sides. 312 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that 313 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 1: will lead to immediate peace. President Putin did say and 314 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: very strongly, that he will have to respond to the 315 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: recent attack on the airfields. He promptly turns it and says, 316 00:19:56,560 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: we also discussed Iran. It's as though I like to 317 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,120 Speaker 1: have Russia as an ally, but he knows he really 318 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,880 Speaker 1: ought to try to get peace in Ukraine and he's 319 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,360 Speaker 1: sort of torn between the two strategic goals. 320 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 2: Well, I think that's right. I think the problem as 321 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 2: well is that, for reasons I don't fully understand that 322 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 2: Trump administration has not put together a professional team with 323 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:26,880 Speaker 2: the detailed knowledge to be able to negotiate with Russia, 324 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 2: because as far as I can see, the only hope 325 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 2: is that you get Russia to withdraw or reduce its 326 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,880 Speaker 2: demands on Ukraine the things that the Ukrainians cannot accept, 327 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 2: withdrawal from more territory disarmament in return giving the Russians 328 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,959 Speaker 2: some of what they want. That's also in accordance with 329 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 2: Trump administration policy when it comes to US Russian relations 330 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 2: because clearly, I mean Putin is very anxious not to 331 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 2: completely ruin his relationship with Trump. And there you're talking 332 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 2: about new arms control agreements, talking about maybe limiting US 333 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 2: forces in Europe, which is what Trump wants to do anyway, 334 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 2: You're talking about some kind of institutionalized you recognition of 335 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 2: a Russian, say, in European security, and of course if 336 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 2: you're looking at an end to further NATO expansion, which 337 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 2: I think Trump is totally uninterested in any way. So 338 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 2: there are things we can offer the Russians that could 339 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 2: potentially lead them to reduce their demands on Ukraine. But 340 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 2: of course, under the surface, but not entirely under the surface, 341 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,880 Speaker 2: there's a big debate going on within the Russian establishment. 342 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 2: Over this, there are the hardliners who really do want 343 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 2: to press on for complete victory in Ukraine, and the 344 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 2: others who are saying, look, this isn't militarily possible, it's 345 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,679 Speaker 2: not worth it anyway. You know, all we get is 346 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 2: a keep of ruins populated by people who hate us. 347 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 2: So let's try and do a deal. I think both 348 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,800 Speaker 2: of those elements are present in Putin's mind from what 349 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,880 Speaker 2: I gather, so we need to find a way to 350 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 2: strengthen the one and diminish the other. 351 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,199 Speaker 1: How seriously do you take the worry that if he 352 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: does win in Ukraine, that it puts Estonia, Lautfia, Lithuania 353 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: and Finland under an increased threat. 354 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 2: I don't, to be honest, partly because look, I mean, 355 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 2: if you see the problems that Russia has faced in 356 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 2: Ukraine and its failures to launch a direct attack on 357 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 2: NATO would be hideously risky, and the question then is 358 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 2: what do you actually get out of this? But also 359 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 2: there's a contradiction here because many people have said, and 360 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 2: in part quite rightly, they're not just Putin, but Russians 361 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 2: have this particular obsession with Ukraine for a whole set 362 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 2: of historical ethnic, cultural, whatever reasons. But the Russians don't 363 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 2: have these feelings about the Baltic States and certainly not 364 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 2: about Finland. The Russians are a bit bewildered about Finland 365 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 2: joining later because they said, look, we haven't done anything 366 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 2: to Finland since nineteen forty four. We've never threatened Finland. 367 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 2: We always had a good relationship with Finland. We like 368 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,439 Speaker 2: the Finns. What's going on here. The Russians didn't like 369 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 2: NATO enlargement to Poland and the Baltic States, but you know, 370 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 2: if you remember, they never did anything about it, and 371 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 2: they could have done. The Russians could have really stirred 372 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:26,120 Speaker 2: up the Russian minorities in Latvia and Estonia to revolt. 373 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 2: They could have carried out terrorist attacks and then tried 374 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:34,199 Speaker 2: to stimulate ethnic conflict. They could have laid claim to 375 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 2: Russian majority areas on Russia's borders. They didn't do any 376 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 2: of that because it wasn't worth a catastrophic clash with 377 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 2: NATO for the sake of the Baltic States. But if 378 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 2: they didn't do it, then there really isn't a reason 379 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,400 Speaker 2: why they would do it now. Also, I think there 380 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,360 Speaker 2: is this desire, certainly to get on with Trump and 381 00:23:56,480 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 2: hopefully his successor Republican success, whoever that is. There's also, 382 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,199 Speaker 2: of course still this desire to reach out to the 383 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,239 Speaker 2: right in Europe, who of course have if you look 384 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 2: at the pen in France and so forth, they've lined 385 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 2: up by NATO against the Russian invasion. But still they 386 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 2: and their supporters are not at all enthusiastic about unlimited 387 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 2: permanent support for Ukraine. If you ought a direct attack 388 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 2: on NATO and the European Union, because of course all 389 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 2: these countries are also you members, well, all that simply 390 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 2: goes out of the window. Then you have well the 391 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 2: risk of nuclear catastrophe, but you also have of course 392 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 2: a permanently foreseeable time rect relationship with the West, and 393 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,199 Speaker 2: of course you put yourself even more deeply in the 394 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,880 Speaker 2: pockets of the Chinese. Now. The Russians are being very 395 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 2: disciplined in public about not talking about their fears in 396 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 2: this regard, but believe me, if you talk to them 397 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 2: in private, a lot of them are very unhappy with 398 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,879 Speaker 2: the way in which Russia is becoming dependent on China. 399 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,640 Speaker 1: Goes right to the heart of going all the way 400 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 1: back to the Mongol yoke and the fear of being 401 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: absorbed by the East and seeing themselves as a unique 402 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: civilization between the West and the East. It's an amazing time. 403 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,919 Speaker 1: I want to thank you. I think Anatole, this is 404 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: such a complex area and it was very helpful to 405 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,879 Speaker 1: get your insights and your understanding. I want to let 406 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: our listeners know they can follow the work you're doing 407 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft at quincyist dot org. 408 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: We're going to have that on our show page and 409 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 1: make sure that people can stay in touch and follow 410 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:34,920 Speaker 1: what you're doing. I really appreciate you taking the time 411 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: to be with us today. 412 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 2: It was a great pleasure, sir, Thank you. 413 00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guests, Anatole Evan. You can learn 414 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: more about the war in Ukraine on our show page 415 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 1: at newtsworld dot com. Newsworld is produced by Genglish three 416 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:54,360 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnsey Slum. Our 417 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was 418 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to kam Special thanks 419 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 1: to the team at Ginglish three sixty. If you've been 420 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,639 Speaker 1: enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and 421 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: both rate us with five stars and give us a 422 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 1: review so others can learn what it's all about. Right now, 423 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 1: listeners of newts World can sign up for my three 424 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 1: freeweekly columns at gingwishtree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm 425 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 1: Newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld