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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast part of the

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Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today,

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Speaker 1: our annual division by division NFL preview episodes march on

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Speaker 1: as we go through every team across the AFC and

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Speaker 1: the NFC on the path the NFL Week one. As always,

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Speaker 1: I can't walk on this journey alone. Let me bring

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Speaker 1: in my co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my

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Speaker 1: bff professional better sign in hunter Head.

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Speaker 2: Oh so I'm in shad you like this. I'm twenty

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Speaker 2: four hours away from going to probably my last bachelor

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Speaker 2: party of my lifetime.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: Two things, One probably not your last. Two two give

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Speaker 1: me the details.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's probably the last because I only have true

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Speaker 2: I probably only have truly five to six real friends left.

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Speaker 2: You know, when you hit your thirties, you probably didn't

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Speaker 2: go through this because you're from a different area. But

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Speaker 2: I don't know your thirties you drop off just because

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Speaker 2: everyone else kids, wives and kids. So this is my

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Speaker 2: last like true childhood friend I've known since he was born.

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Speaker 2: He's getting married. We're going down to Dewey Beach in Delaware,

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Speaker 2: and you'll like this. His party theme is Fred Durst

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Speaker 2: from Lymbiscuit. So I'll be wearing the jeans, shorts, the

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Speaker 2: white T shirt with the backwards red hat, which is

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Speaker 2: just I don't know if you've seen these ears. They

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Speaker 2: are not meant to be worn underneath the hat. So

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Speaker 2: it's probably the first out I've worn since Little League

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Speaker 2: Baseball thirty years ago. So yeah, look looking forward to

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Speaker 2: Dewey Beach for the weekend with the boys. But he's

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Speaker 2: done well. Like I just joke, I have six people

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Speaker 2: like and again the person parties. Chad's probably in that

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Speaker 2: six of like people I consider good friends. Uh, he's

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Speaker 2: got like thirty guys coming to these two beach houses

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Speaker 2: down that Dewey Beach. That's how many close friends he has.

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Speaker 2: So it's gonna be pretty a.

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Speaker 1: I love that for him. B. I didn't realize that

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Speaker 1: guys were doing bachelor party themes where everyone had to

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Speaker 1: dress up. I thought that's something only that the ladies did.

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Speaker 1: So please send pictures of your Fred Durst inspired.

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Speaker 2: Have you ever heard of a world of T shirts?

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Speaker 2: Or no world of T shirts?

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Speaker 1: All?

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Speaker 2: Right, So he's he's like this, you're a TikTok guy.

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Speaker 2: I'm not. This is like a TikTok guy. And I

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Speaker 2: did another bachelor party last year and we all dressed

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Speaker 2: up as this World of T Shirts guy, and basically

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Speaker 2: his whole thing is telling people he's richer than them

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Speaker 2: and how and ask them how they got in here,

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Speaker 2: like it's this weird voice. So there was twenty of

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Speaker 2: us all dressed as him, and it was we got

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Speaker 2: thrown out about seven different bars. People could not stand

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Speaker 2: us being this World of T Shirts guys. So I'm

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Speaker 2: excited to be Fred Durst of Lumbiscuit for the weekend.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be good to.

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Speaker 3: Tell you something. Let me tell you something.

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Speaker 1: Number One, the only person who should dress up at

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Speaker 1: the bachelor party in a costume is the bachelor. For example,

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Speaker 1: on my bachelor party, we were in Vegas and we

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Speaker 1: were all getting ready to go out for dinner, and

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Speaker 1: one of my guys said to me, dude, great, you

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Speaker 1: look great tonight. Fantastic. I'm like, thanks, man, He goes,

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Speaker 1: this is what you're wearing. I told you to. This

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Speaker 1: story breaks out the polyester elvis jumpsuit with the flared

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Speaker 1: bottoms and an elvis wig and gold glasses, and that

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Speaker 1: is what I wore the entire night. Out in Vegas

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Speaker 1: and it was the greatest night of my entire life

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Speaker 1: because everywhere you go, even if you're dressed as Elvis

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Speaker 1: and you're a very bad impersonator, you are treated like

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Speaker 1: the King. No lines, no covers, free everything. Everyone wants

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Speaker 1: to take their picture with you. Everyone is happy to

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Speaker 1: see you. It is freaking glory. Yes, number one. Number two.

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Speaker 1: I once one of the guys who organized this. To

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Speaker 1: get him back. We went to New Orleans, got him

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Speaker 1: pretty wasted during the day. At about six o'clock, I

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Speaker 1: said to him, guy, we got to get going, and

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Speaker 1: I handed him a King of Marti Gras outfit and

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Speaker 1: I had hired a brass band from Tulane University music students.

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Speaker 1: We went down to Bourbon Street, which was, you know,

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Speaker 1: where our hotel was, and at six o'clock on a

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Speaker 1: Saturday night, he had to march down Bourbon Street as

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Speaker 1: the King of Marti Gras in the King of Marti

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Speaker 1: Gras outfit, with the staff and everything, while the band

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Speaker 1: played when the Saints go marching in behind him. It's

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Speaker 1: not a group thing. One person needs to get embarrassed

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Speaker 1: at the bachelor party.

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Speaker 2: Now times have changed, bro Bachelor, We're not. We're not

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Speaker 2: there to be assholest to and we're there to support.

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Speaker 2: And I told you it's depressor. This is my last

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Speaker 2: friend that's getting married unless my buddies get divorced. It's

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Speaker 2: my last bachelor There's nothing.

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Speaker 3: I asked Tolly about it. This guy had so much fun.

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Speaker 3: I had so much fun.

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Speaker 1: It's thirty freaking years later and we still laugh about these.

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Speaker 1: By the way, on all the trips that we go

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Speaker 1: on every single year with all my high school buddies

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Speaker 1: and their wives, we all still laugh about it.

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Speaker 3: I'm excited for you to be fred Durst and Olympis.

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Speaker 1: Get olymp biscuits this weekend, right, yeah, right, you get that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're good.

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Speaker 3: Right. I hope it's not your last bachelor party.

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Speaker 2: List when we gets divorced, it is. I'm not making

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Speaker 2: any new friends, brother, I got I do a one

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Speaker 2: hundred phone calls. It feels like a day with all

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Speaker 2: these different people. I got no room for new friends.

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Speaker 2: So Chad, Chad, unless you're getting divorced, one of my

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Speaker 2: buddies getting divorced, No more bachelor parties unless it's my own.

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Speaker 1: Well, listen, if you're bored, you can come up and

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Speaker 1: stay with me and Stacy because we're going to be

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Speaker 1: empty nesters soon. Or I heard this weekend. People don't

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Speaker 1: like to call it empty nesters. They like to call

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Speaker 1: it free birds.

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Speaker 2: I like that better. I liked that better.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get to it.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad we're I want you to have a good

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Speaker 1: time this weekend in Delaware. Listen, we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about the NFC West today. Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, LA Rams,

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Speaker 1: San Francisco forty nine ers.

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Speaker 3: Listen.

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Speaker 1: I know we've been talking about the Niners and the

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Speaker 1: Rams since the season ended. Niners one of the first

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Speaker 1: bets I made for futures. I know you did too,

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Speaker 1: But as the off season has gone on, you've started

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Speaker 1: like the Rams a little bit more. So we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about the Rams in a sec. But like

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Speaker 1: I did with Pete Carroll, I want to give you

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Speaker 1: some Kyle Shanahan stats for context. Twenty eighteen, Kyle Shanahan

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Speaker 1: went four and twelve twenty nineteen, thirteen and three twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan went six and ten twenty twenty one, ten

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Speaker 1: and seven twenty twenty four, Kyle Shanahan went six and

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Speaker 1: eleven twenty twenty five. Who knows the point is the

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Speaker 1: ten and a half is undervaluing.

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Speaker 3: The By the way, I didn't give you their odds today.

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Speaker 1: Division odds plus one fifty, Conference plus six fifty Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl twenty to one. We got him closer to twenty

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Speaker 1: five win total ten and a half. I think this

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Speaker 1: win total is valuing the Niners below market, definitely below

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Speaker 1: where they had been years prior. Whenever this guy has

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Speaker 1: a down year, it's because of massive amounts of injuries,

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Speaker 1: and he comes back so strong the next year and

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Speaker 1: years when his team has been healthy. He's never had

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Speaker 1: fewer than ten wins in a season in his career. Right,

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Speaker 1: So Ayuk? Will he be healthy?

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Speaker 3: Purty?

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Speaker 1: Will he be more comfortable with his full complement of

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Speaker 1: players around him? McCaffrey, will he be healthy? Trent Williams

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Speaker 1: obviously not holding out? Will he be in better conditioning? Like,

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Speaker 1: this is a team and I'm not even getting to

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Speaker 1: the schedule yet that after I did my research, I

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Speaker 1: started to get a lot higher on.

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Speaker 3: Talk to me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we both made really really early bets on this

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Speaker 2: team to win the Super Bowl odds, And I told

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Speaker 2: you at that time that I had already bet the

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Speaker 2: Rams before The Rams were literally the first bet I

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Speaker 2: made as soon as the season ended. I think they

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Speaker 2: were twenty eight to one. You know this, this this

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Speaker 2: four nine ers team, It just lines up for what

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Speaker 2: we do here as better as of the football. As

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Speaker 2: we look for these last place teams from the year

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Speaker 2: before and the team that had horrible injuries, bad luck,

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Speaker 2: all that noise. They are that team. They have the

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Speaker 2: they were fourth place in their division. They had a

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Speaker 2: ton of injuries in this division. And you go through

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Speaker 2: and it's like, okay, they get all these guys back,

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Speaker 2: and they're getting what me and you agreed to be

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Speaker 2: one of the best defensive corners of solid back to

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Speaker 2: man this defense. They they went out and got some

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Speaker 2: big boys for that defensive line. They've they've gotten. They

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Speaker 2: were much bigger than they were last year on the

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Speaker 2: defensive line. I think that's obvious, gonna help the secondary

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Speaker 2: end the linebacker position. You know, that's all fun and good.

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Speaker 2: I told you. My hesitation with them is how have

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Speaker 2: they drafted these last couple of years Because they've had

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Speaker 2: to have paid their quarterback now, so that means there's

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Speaker 2: no longer the rookie deal bullshit. Right, It's no longer

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Speaker 2: they can just go out and get a twenty five

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Speaker 2: thirty million dollar free agent just added to that defense

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Speaker 2: like they could before. Right, They've had to pay party now,

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Speaker 2: so things are gonna be a little different. And the

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Speaker 2: only reason I love this team like I do is

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Speaker 2: because of their schedule. Like that really is it where I,

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Speaker 2: you know, as the human element, I wanted to be

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Speaker 2: down on this team coming into it because it's like,

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Speaker 2: I have too many questions about the way they've drafted lately.

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Speaker 2: But when you go through their schedule and you know,

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Speaker 2: we don't know the deal is like Yuk might not

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Speaker 2: be back till mid October, November, Like no one knows

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Speaker 2: the trajectory of his injury. He's not practicing with them yet, right,

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Speaker 2: he's still rehabbing. I'm still getting trying to his body. Right,

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Speaker 2: that's a big deal because it's gone from that Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl run they had. They had Ayuk and Debo playing

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Speaker 2: at really high levels and Deebo's gone, which to me

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Speaker 2: was the right move. They're putting a lot on you know,

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Speaker 2: Ricky Year and you know he could take that years

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Speaker 2: to jump, as wide receivers do. But it's that's a

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Speaker 2: big question mark. We don't know how he's going to

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Speaker 2: react to being the main focus in this offense. And

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Speaker 2: you know, I don't really have the questions about Purty. Like,

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Speaker 2: to me, Purty showed me a lot last year in

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Speaker 2: his playing style. Did you have in your top ten

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Speaker 2: this year?

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Speaker 3: I did.

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Speaker 2: I didn't just because I obviously have other guys above him,

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Speaker 2: But like he's right there for me, like Prety a

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Speaker 2: ton of respect. I think there's a ton of talent.

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Speaker 2: Obviously he's you know, getting McCaffrey back is just the

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Speaker 2: ultimate game changer for this team. Like that, that to

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Speaker 2: me is everything. So that's the hesitation, the fear with

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Speaker 2: me with this team. It's like that's the only thing

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Speaker 2: I'm having paus on Divisional Lodge Chat plus one fifty.

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Speaker 2: That to me is right. They should be the favor

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Speaker 2: in this division. They're the best team in this division

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Speaker 2: when it's all said and done. They have arguably the

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Speaker 2: most talent in this division. But again it's all about

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Speaker 2: how they've drafted the beer's house can put together. So

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Speaker 2: uh not gonna bet them division a lot. It's not

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Speaker 2: gonna bet them conference. I bet in them Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: because it's like we just said, we've already bet it.

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Speaker 2: It's moved too much for me to bet it again.

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Speaker 2: The value is just not there. Win total though, I

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Speaker 2: like that ten and a half. I think the books

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Speaker 2: are kind of showing their ass here, Like everyone in

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Speaker 2: the general public is like, whoa, that's high for a

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers seen that was in the last place

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Speaker 2: last year. And even the ones that are like, well

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Speaker 2: they were hurt, they're gonna be better, they still don't

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Speaker 2: see that many people giving them over ten wins where

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Speaker 2: you know, again it's all based off schedule. I have

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Speaker 2: them at twelve wins, so I have them a win

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Speaker 2: and a half above what the books are projecting. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: my model really likes them. I gotta go with it

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Speaker 2: because I look at this record and I think to myself, Okay,

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Speaker 2: let's go by game by game and try to find

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Speaker 2: these wins for them, and you can find them. I

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Speaker 2: know that's stupid because we don't really know what these

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Speaker 2: he's gonna be like. But when you do break it

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Speaker 2: down game by game and look at these different teams

239
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Speaker 2: they match up with, it just all breaks right from

240
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Speaker 2: their away games, their home games, their schedule wise like

241
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Speaker 2: on their short weeks, long weeks, the rested weeks. It's

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Speaker 2: just a really favorable season for this furnasing. You already

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Speaker 2: talked about it too, the seesawing of Shanahan coach teams,

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Speaker 2: their down years, high up, high ceiling years, really low years.

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Speaker 2: It's just he really does well based off of the

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Speaker 2: year before. They got the fourth place schedule, they really

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Speaker 2: bounce back the following season. So even if they have

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Speaker 2: a dipping talent from that Super Bowl team, I still

249
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Speaker 2: see them being eleven win team twelve win teams, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: give me that over ten and a half win total.

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Speaker 1: Chad Easiest schedule in two different categories. Easiest schedule according

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Speaker 1: to twenty twenty four win percentages aggregate of the teams

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Speaker 1: they are playing. Easiest schedule of the according to twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five Vegas win totals. Open the season, we see

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Speaker 1: Attle on the road, then they get the Saints on

256
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Speaker 1: the road, Then they get the Cardinals at home, then

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Speaker 1: they get the Jags at home. Also this year they

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Speaker 1: get Giants, Browns, Panthers, Titans, Colts. They are getting the

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Speaker 1: last place schedule and that just has a recipe for

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Speaker 1: a huge amount of wins. I don't like. I really

261
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Speaker 1: wanted to walk back from this team, but the addition

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Speaker 1: of Sala to me, elevates their defense even where they.

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Speaker 3: Might have some holes and we don't know if they

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Speaker 3: have holes.

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Speaker 1: Like to your point, they spent a lot of draft

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Speaker 1: capital on the defense, and we don't know yet if

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Speaker 1: that's going to play out. It kind of has to,

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Speaker 1: given the way that they've had to pay players for

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Speaker 1: this team to be successful.

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Speaker 3: But I would feel.

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Speaker 1: Better and I do feel better betting on the Niners

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Speaker 1: with Robert Sala back as the defensive coordinator. Don't forget

273
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Speaker 1: that Jets defense was really good when he was the

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Speaker 1: coach there and it fell off a cliff when he left,

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Speaker 1: So clearly this is something that he is incredibly good at.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about over the course of the offseason, like

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Speaker 1: the most important additions. To me, Robert Sala was one

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Speaker 1: of the most important additions to any team during the

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Speaker 1: off season.

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Speaker 3: So I like it.

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Speaker 2: I like it. You just talked about their best regular

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Speaker 2: season record. If you want to go out there and

283
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Speaker 2: find it, there's a couple eleven oh ones, twelve to

284
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Speaker 2: ones on fort nine ers to be the best regular

285
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Speaker 2: season record So to me, that's good value on a

286
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Speaker 2: team that, you know, like the Bills right now are

287
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Speaker 2: favorite of plus three fifty. We talked about the Bills

288
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Speaker 2: of a very easy schedule. That makes sense, seem could

289
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Speaker 2: be said with this foreig nineers team, Why are they

290
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Speaker 2: not plus four hundred plus five hundred right, because once

291
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Speaker 2: again public perception, they're just not buying it like professional

292
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Speaker 2: betters are. So yeah, that's a nice little value bet

293
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Speaker 2: twelve to one eleven o one best record forty nine Ers.

294
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Speaker 1: By the way, you know, we talked about betting the

295
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Speaker 1: Niners at twenty five to one. I also bet the

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Speaker 1: Bills Niners matchup in the Super Bowl at forty five

297
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Speaker 1: to one.

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Speaker 2: I like that.

299
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Speaker 1: I had completely forgotten about it. This morning, I was

300
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Speaker 1: checking my accounts to see what bets I had made

301
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Speaker 1: in the offseason because I had forgotten, like what number

302
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Speaker 1: did I get the Niners at? What number did I

303
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Speaker 1: get the Packers at? I think I got what number

304
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Speaker 1: did I get the Rams at? And I saw this,

305
00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:45,560
Speaker 1: and then I saw three other bets which I had

306
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Speaker 1: forgotten making. One was Cowboys plus two forty in Week one,

307
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 1: Cowboys plus seven in Week one, and I pulled the trigger.

308
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Speaker 3: I don't if you remember this. We were talking about

309
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Speaker 3: the Bills.

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Speaker 1: And the Panthers like in the middle of the off season,

311
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Speaker 1: and I bet the Panthers plus seven against the Bills

312
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Speaker 1: like in Week eight. I think they're thinking was, we're

313
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Speaker 1: going to believe the Panthers are going to be much

314
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Speaker 1: better and.

315
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Speaker 3: That number is going to come down.

316
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Speaker 2: That is crazy.

317
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Speaker 1: So I went for it, all right, Rams together contender

318
00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,760
Speaker 1: plus one seventy five in the Division, ten to one

319
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Speaker 1: in the Conference, twenty two to one to win the

320
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl win total nine and a half.

321
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Speaker 3: I feel like I see it less with the Rams

322
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Speaker 3: than you do.

323
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Speaker 1: I do have some numbers to sort of support ascendency,

324
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Speaker 1: but you love the Rams.

325
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Speaker 3: I think I like the Rams.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty simple. It's my job is trying to

327
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Speaker 2: find people super Bowl winners. And when I go through

328
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Speaker 2: all the teams that ifc obviously Eagles are the number one,

329
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Speaker 2: number two, it's just all lines up for this RAMS

330
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Speaker 2: team because it's a team that does not matter if

331
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Speaker 2: they are home or away, like they could be the seventh.

332
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Speaker 2: To me, it would not matter for them, Like they're

333
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Speaker 2: just that talented across the board and the biggest question

334
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Speaker 2: with them will always be have they drafted to fill

335
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Speaker 2: that defense out, because that's gonna be their weakness. It's

336
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,840
Speaker 2: not gonna be the offense, right, that's Sean mcvay's bread

337
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 2: and butters into that offense. And even games they struggle,

338
00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 2: they eventually find a way and find a way to

339
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:24,440
Speaker 2: attack different defenses. And you know the reason I don't

340
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,399
Speaker 2: love them for this division, like I just you know,

341
00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 2: the numbers move so much, and I'm obviously super Bowl

342
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 2: odds it's twenty like you said, twenty two to one.

343
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,560
Speaker 2: A lot of books in the twenty to one. I

344
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,720
Speaker 2: know that's so they're out in the action app I

345
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:38,240
Speaker 2: gave them not a twenty eighth to one, and that

346
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 2: was obviously before they made the move to goet Devonte Adams,

347
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 2: and that's They've had other stuff that the professionals and

348
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,719
Speaker 2: now come in and move this number down. But what

349
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 2: I do not get is a nine and a half

350
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 2: like that nine and a half win total? Is that

351
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,760
Speaker 2: just because Stafford's old and has a bad back and

352
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,080
Speaker 2: seems like he gets hurt every season, and you know

353
00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:58,880
Speaker 2: last year is playing their injuries and kind of fell

354
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Speaker 2: off a little bit towards the end of this season.

355
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 2: You know that's all fair, but you also go back

356
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,440
Speaker 2: to last season and that's when they hit their stride

357
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,119
Speaker 2: in the season. I mean, they really were bad to

358
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:09,640
Speaker 2: start the season. I think there were three and six

359
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 2: once again to start a year, and maybe they ended

360
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,840
Speaker 2: the season eight and two. It's just that's just what

361
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,320
Speaker 2: they've done now the last two seasons, like they've started

362
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 2: out slow and the end of the season really well.

363
00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 2: They won the division last year. I don't think they

364
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:23,560
Speaker 2: get away with that this year with the forty nine ers.

365
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 2: I think the four nits would be so good throughout

366
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:27,680
Speaker 2: the season that they're not gonna be able to steal

367
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 2: the division like they did last year into the season

368
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 2: right because that the division was right there for the

369
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,879
Speaker 2: Seahawks and Arizona as well, and both of them just

370
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,359
Speaker 2: fell apart towards the end of the season where the

371
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,880
Speaker 2: Rams did not. So, you know, looking at this team

372
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:45,159
Speaker 2: and the way they play with Stafford, you know, the

373
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 2: DeVante Adams piece to this, to me is just such

374
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 2: a major and not talked about addition to a team

375
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 2: that you know, Puka, if he's healthy, to me, he's

376
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 2: a top five, top six wide receiver in this league,

377
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 2: like his range to be able to catch the ball,

378
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,240
Speaker 2: as athleticism, his blocking as well, just one of the

379
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,400
Speaker 2: best blockers, which makes one of their run games so dominant.

380
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 2: Last year, their run game was not that good. Like

381
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 2: people forget that. You know, Williams was a little banged

382
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 2: up as well. They went out drafted running back this

383
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 2: upcoming season just because of that. They were like, Okay,

384
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 2: we're not messing around with this again. We need to

385
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 2: make sure our run game is on point. And that's

386
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 2: a big deal when you have someone like Stafford. But

387
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,880
Speaker 2: when you add in Devanta Adams as well hes Puka

388
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 2: and DeVonta Adams, and even if you want to say

389
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 2: Devonte is over the hill, which we could all agree on,

390
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,679
Speaker 2: he's still one of the best route running receivers and

391
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:35,680
Speaker 2: especially in the red zone, which is where they struggled

392
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,120
Speaker 2: last year, was scoring in the red zone. This Rams team.

393
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 2: So that's why I give them such a major bump here.

394
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,399
Speaker 2: You know, once again, I'm not going to beat the

395
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,360
Speaker 2: divisional odds. I was hoping this would be a little better.

396
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 2: I can be patient here. Even though their start of

397
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 2: the season isn't you know, brutal right, they have not yeah,

398
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 2: and they go Houston, Tennessee Eagles, Colts, forty nine Ers,

399
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 2: Ravens Jacksonville. Then they have a bye week. So this

400
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 2: is another team that I might just wait til the

401
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 2: bye week to take a divisional odds bet on them.

402
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,440
Speaker 2: See if they start, you know, three and four get

403
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 2: way better odds, especially if the forty ninros have a

404
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 2: hot start. That to me is where the value would

405
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,439
Speaker 2: be better in the divisionally, but win total you can

406
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,120
Speaker 2: bet that now if you wont nine and a half,

407
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 2: you know, I easily see this team get into ten wins.

408
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: My model is a little hesitant about They only had

409
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,400
Speaker 2: him at ten and a half, which I was shocked by,

410
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: But that could just be because they are playing a first

411
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 2: place schedule, right they won their division. They're gonna have

412
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,360
Speaker 2: to play play the Eaglesy're gonna have to play the Bucks,

413
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,439
Speaker 2: are gonna have to play Detroit. That's always gonna make

414
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 2: her a season a little bit tougher for win totals

415
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,399
Speaker 2: when you're using a model to base off wins. So

416
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 2: to me, I would take the win total your I

417
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: have no fear in it. Sean McVay ten and seven

418
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 2: at worse to me feels like that's the low bar,

419
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 2: even if he gets hurt once again. Stafford. I know

420
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: he's not that good of a quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, but

421
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 2: he's a veteran that knows how to run this type

422
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 2: of offense, right. He's not the type of guy that's

423
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 2: gonna burn you, especially when he use those type of

424
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,880
Speaker 2: weapons they outside. So I think it's a little safety proof.

425
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 2: The fact they have a veteran presence like that in

426
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 2: Jimmy back up Stafford and ten ten wins feels like

427
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 2: it's not crazy to bet on at this point. So yeah,

428
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: we're starting off at the top fourty nine ers over

429
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 2: win total. Same with the Rams. I like the over

430
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: for them as well, a nine and a half.

431
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 1: By the way, I take issue with one thing you said.

432
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 1: You said the early part of their schedule isn't brutal,

433
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,399
Speaker 1: and then I immediately agreed, Uh, and I'm wrong, And

434
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 1: I made a note of this.

435
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 2: Oh I've meant to say, is brutal? Is bru I agree?

436
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 3: I thought you said it isn't brutal.

437
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 2: I might it is. I meant to say, it is

438
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 2: my best because.

439
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 1: For their first six games Texans Eagles in Philly Niners

440
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 1: Ravens in Baltimore.

441
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:41,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, So, like I said, I wouldn't bet that until

442
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 2: the visional odds. Till after that by a week, I

443
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 2: think you'll get better better odds.

444
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: So you you said the magic word here, which is

445
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: is their defense, which is full of young great players

446
00:21:56,359 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 1: going to continue to be on the upswing Before their

447
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 1: Week six by last year, they had the worst pass

448
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: defense in the NFL. They allowed the highest EPA expected

449
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 1: points at it and the most yards per attempt. Post

450
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: by Jared Vers moves into the lineup full time as

451
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 1: a starter, they ranked eighth best in EPA, ninth best

452
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:26,400
Speaker 1: in YPA, and posted the league's highest disruption rate. Nice

453
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 1: job the throw the damn ball sub stack, which is fantastic.

454
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 1: I highly recommend people check it out. But can that

455
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 1: improvement continue? Can they continue to be as aggressive? Can

456
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: they continue to be as physical and dynamic? Great defensive

457
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 1: line right Kobe Turner, Brandon Fisk, Jared Vers, like I mentioned,

458
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:55,439
Speaker 1: like that is a really good defensive line. Will they

459
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 1: continue to develop and excel? That's the question. And is

460
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: Stafford going to be a right?

461
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's the fear, is like Stafford Drey coming

462
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: to camp. He's already got back spasms and back issues,

463
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 2: Like he's already resting, missing practice to start there, which

464
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 2: again not a big deal because he's a veteran, but

465
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, this is this is what we're dealing with.

466
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 2: We're betting a guy like Stafford, who you know, his

467
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 2: body got beat up in Detroit all those years. It's

468
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 2: it was gonna catch up to him at some point.

469
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:24,640
Speaker 2: So you know last year played through a bunch of injuries.

470
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 2: You saw that kind of happen with him, and I

471
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: think his best game is against the Bills, and then

472
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 2: after that game, he just was not right for about

473
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:32,679
Speaker 2: four or five weeks and they really relied on what

474
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 2: Chad just talked about, which was that defense. So yeah,

475
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 2: if their defense shows up for them, this could be

476
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 2: a really dominant team. If they regress, man, they could

477
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,199
Speaker 2: finish easily third or fourth in this division. Like this

478
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 2: is going to be a tough division.

479
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 3: Uh, in my TikTok feed. You know I love TikTok.

480
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 1: I know you're against it, but I recently got a

481
00:23:53,440 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: old school NFL films Steve Sable introducing four uninterrupted minutes

482
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 1: of audio and video at the end of a game

483
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: and Matthew Stafford's rookie season where he gets leveled with

484
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: like ten seconds left and he's in agony. He's writhing

485
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 1: on the field, his shoulder, his arm is dangling because

486
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,360
Speaker 1: his shoulder is separated. He's got to go to the sideline.

487
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 1: He can't even handle it. If someone touches his shoulder pad,

488
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,880
Speaker 1: they have a chance to win the game. But he

489
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 1: had to leave the field and clearly cannot come back

490
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 1: on the field, and the opposing team calls a time out,

491
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,639
Speaker 1: so he gets about thirty seconds of a blow and

492
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 1: that allows him to come back onto the field for

493
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 1: the final play with one arm. He throws the game

494
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 1: winning touchdown, and that is the beginning of the Matthew

495
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 1: Stafford legend and why his teammates love him so much

496
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 1: because he's such fucking badass.

497
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 3: But it just.

498
00:24:55,359 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: Reminds you what a terrible fucking game like he got leveled.

499
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: He shouldn't even have an arm after what happened to him,

500
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 1: and he got out there without even shots Like you

501
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: could see, he's on the sideline the whole time, gets

502
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: out there and just fucking throws a dime. Stafford takes

503
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: the snap, sets in the pocket, rolls left Stafford looking

504
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: for somewhere.

505
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 2: To go, sets it glow and trying to be on

506
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 2: a hand potat.

507
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: In the upside and he's down on the field and

508
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: it's not getting up.

509
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember. The best is just the sounds you

510
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 2: make sure he's just like I can't guys, I can't

511
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 2: feel my arm all about right now, but it came

512
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 2: out back into the left close.

513
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 1: How dare you try to diminish the toughness of Matthew

514
00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: Stafford and make him sound like he is whining in it?

515
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 2: Just funny sounds. He makes funny sounds.

516
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 1: Dude, right, Not right for the quarterback that you have

517
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:12,159
Speaker 1: in the top ten. Perennially Cardinals plus four fifty twenty

518
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: six to one to win the Conference super Bowl fifty

519
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 1: to one win total eight and a half.

520
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 3: So this is what shocked me.

521
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 1: And I mentioned this the other day when we were

522
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 1: talking about the Chiefs. I was going through Kyler Murray's

523
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 1: career because like one of the things I was reading

524
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 1: up on talked about how he you know, he entered

525
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 1: his knee I think in twenty twenty one and that

526
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 1: last year maybe twenty two, I can't remember which but

527
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 1: last year was sort of his best year since early

528
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: part of twenty one when he was having an MVP

529
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 1: caliber season, And in my head, Kyler Murray just still

530
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: feels like a guy who's a year removed from being

531
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: a rookie because we keep waiting for him to live

532
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: up to his potential. And then I realized, as I said,

533
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: he started one fewer year years than Patrick Mahomes and

534
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 1: the difference in how we think and I know, different coaching,

535
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: different franchises, different talent, et cetera, et cetera, But.

536
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray.

537
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,479
Speaker 1: The fact that we still talk about Kyler Murray as

538
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 1: a guy who, if he can put it together, who

539
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: were counting on living up to his potential.

540
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 3: It feels like the same conversation every year. So what

541
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 3: are we going to get?

542
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 2: Like?

543
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: Is he going to be the guy who when he

544
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: had Cliff Kingsbury and was great in early twenty to

545
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: twenty one, who last year started to show flashes of

546
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: being a little bit smarter in the pocket, taking fewer sacks,

547
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 1: having this team rally around him. Best year certainly since

548
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: that early twenty twenty one see's early part of twenty

549
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: twenty one. The only question right like that's it is

550
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray the guy or not?

551
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, the joke with Kylier Murray's he's always a year away.

552
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: He's a year away from being a year away.

553
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 3: It's yeah, that's by the way, Is that the joke?

554
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 3: I didn't even know that.

555
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's again, there's always quarterbacks like him, where.

556
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 3: That joke isn't on TikTok again.

557
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 2: I don't don't have TikTok. I'm a grown man. You're

558
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 2: the TikTok guy.

559
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 1: All right, okay, grown man. I look forward to seeing

560
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: your pictures from the Limp Biscuit telethon this weekend.

561
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 2: You're you're jealous. Sounds like you're jealous all for that nookie.

562
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 2: I look at Kyler Murray and I always see the potential.

563
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 2: But it's just I think we're all just sick of

564
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 2: the inconsistency where it's like, you know, one week he

565
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 2: can look really good and then you know the word.

566
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 2: The game that pissed him off the most last year

567
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 2: that we should have seen coming was Washington Commanders. I

568
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: don't I don't know if it was in Arizona, but

569
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 2: it might have been in Arizona. They went down there

570
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 2: and beat this shit of this Arizona team, like literally

571
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 2: embarrassed them. And I should have known that. I was like, Okay,

572
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 2: this is this is who Kyler Murray is. He's just

573
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 2: an inconsistent guy that when he plays against a good

574
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 2: quarterback or if this is a good team, he'll never

575
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 2: love them. He can beat up bad teams where he

576
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 2: can steal a game every now and then, but when

577
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 2: he has a good team with momentum against him, he'll

578
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 2: never beat that type of team. And you know, last year,

579
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 2: I just felt like it was all lined up for

580
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 2: them to steal this division. Like there were so many

581
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 2: ways they could have stole this division. That an easy schedule.

582
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: You know, he didn't trust Marvin Harris Junior, which you

583
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 2: know I get, but even McBride, like I don't think

584
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 2: I think McBride had some crazy streak where he had

585
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: like the most catches in the NFL without a touchdown,

586
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 2: like all just a bunch of weird little things like

587
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: that where yes, we can say his offensive line is

588
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: not that good and that defense isn't that good, and

589
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 2: you know, Buddha Baker's all they have on the defensive side.

590
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 2: And that's why that's why this team is struggles. There

591
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,719
Speaker 2: always going to be a couple of draft pieces way

592
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: and it's never Coler's fault. But when you really dive

593
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 2: into it, it's like there's games that are winnable for them,

594
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 2: and Kyler doesn't love up to those moments. And like

595
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 2: you said, we're in the seventh year here, we know

596
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 2: he has the talent. He's all a talent around him.

597
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 2: Like could he shock the world and steal this division

598
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 2: plus four fifty? Yeah, if you want to go out

599
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 2: there and bet that, go for it. But to me,

600
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 2: my model actually has I'm only eight wins. I don't

601
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 2: even have an eight wins when I really run through

602
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 2: it and I'm like, I can't see them again to

603
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 2: eight wins. Just how hard this division is and they're

604
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: out of conference games are so you know eight and

605
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 2: a half. If you want to bet that over, go

606
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 2: for it. I'm on the under, not one of my

607
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: best bets, Like it's just half a game to the

608
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 2: under I have, But I just I can't get there

609
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 2: this team. But I'm excited to see what the future

610
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 2: is because you have Morvin, you have you know McBride,

611
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 2: one of the better tight ends. You know, James Connor

612
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 2: might be a little a little bit on the way

613
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:24,959
Speaker 2: out right, his best days might behind him, but he's

614
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: still a talented running back. Like they have all these

615
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,959
Speaker 2: weapons offensively. Can't Kyler be a leader? Can he be

616
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 2: what you just talking about? Can he be the MVP

617
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 2: level that we know he has athleticism? But can he

618
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 2: be consistent? Because you know, he is one of those

619
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 2: guys from my money where it's like I can't. I

620
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 2: want people to have their own lives outside of football.

621
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 2: But it's like, does he care more about being a streamer?

622
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 2: Does he care more about playing video games or live

623
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: streaming his life on YouTube and his daily life week

624
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: the week? Because for me, the best quarterbacks in football,

625
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 2: they have no lives. All they care about is football.

626
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 2: Like Mahomes I watch just like you. I watch it

627
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 2: QB life. He lives a pretty boring life, like he

628
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 2: just practice work home. Jalen Hurts is a robot, that's

629
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 2: all he does. Josh Allen, That's why I came to

630
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: watch Hard Knocks. Everything I heard about Josh Allen is Yeah,

631
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 2: he has fun the offseason, but he is a boring

632
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 2: robot during the season. He just does the same thing

633
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 2: all day. Every day. It's just all about football and commitment.

634
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 2: So can Kyler nick that next step, Chad, that's the

635
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 2: big question. And I don't think me and either want

636
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: to put our money into that. Like I don't believe

637
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 2: enough to invest buy money into him for the next

638
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 2: six months. So I'm just I'm very down on Kyler

639
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 2: in this team right now, and it's for a good reason.

640
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: It's just a really tough division. He's never taken that's

641
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 2: next step. Has shown us. They deserve that respect that

642
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 2: these other quarterbacks have.

643
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't even know why you would say to

644
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: people if you want to bet the over eight and

645
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: a half, Like, there's nothing about this team, especially in

646
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: this division, that makes me feel like, oh yeah, I

647
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 1: don't want to invest in this team's overall success.

648
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 3: They have never proven it.

649
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: They had some flat last year, but in the end

650
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 1: they had their classic Cardinals games and classic Kyler Murray games.

651
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: There's a lot of games, a lot of teams. We've

652
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: talked about them already, talk about the Saints under, talk

653
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: about the Panthers over, talk about the Titans over right,

654
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 1: like talk about the Raiders over. There's been a lot

655
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: of games, a lot of teams that we can talk

656
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 1: about betting on the Cardinals.

657
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 3: Just feel like they got a cults vibe, no read,

658
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 3: middle of the road, no value.

659
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 2: No and just again it's just it's why would we

660
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 2: be excited about this team. It's hard to get excited

661
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 2: about them when Kyler's just disappointed. People like you said,

662
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: it's crazy to think how long he's been in the

663
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 2: league now and this is his seventh season. He's just

664
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 2: he's done nothing like no memorable. Sure, that crazy play

665
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 2: on that two point conversion. Maybe it was a touchdown

666
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 2: where he ran around for thirty seconds. Yes, that was memorable.

667
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: Him having that hell Mary pass, Yeah that was memorable,

668
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 2: But no plas success. He's done nothing to change our

669
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 2: organization around. You know, like Kurt Warner Carson Palmer did

670
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: more on their stops in Arizona than he has, and

671
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 2: he's got way more athletic talent than those guys. So

672
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: it's just very disappointed what College Murray's career has been

673
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 2: so far.

674
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 1: All Right, well, it's not clear. I think we're down

675
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. The only time I might be more

676
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 1: down on.

677
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 3: The Seattle Seahawks plus six point.

678
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:29,479
Speaker 1: Fifty conference is thirty five to one Super Bowl sixty

679
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: to one win total light and a half, and that

680
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: just feels high to me. I feel like Mike McDonald

681
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 1: is getting the benefit of the doubt, and I feel

682
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: like there's some public perception benefit for Sam Donald.

683
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 3: I'm not buying it. I'm just telling you right.

684
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 1: Now, Like, there is such a massive difference between Sam

685
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 1: Donald playing behind a Vikings offensive line and having Kevin

686
00:33:55,600 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 1: O'Connell whisper in his ear, and a offensive system in

687
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,479
Speaker 1: Seattle that doesn't have Kevin O'Connell and also has what

688
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 1: may be the worst offensive line in football, Like that's

689
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 1: not even really debatable. They didn't get better during the offseason,

690
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: and they've invested this money and handed the ball to

691
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 1: a quarterback who remember his downfall began with the Jets

692
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 1: when he was getting pressure and said he was seeing ghosts.

693
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: Last year, he was good because he wasn't getting pressure.

694
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 1: So what had the Seahawks done to make sure that

695
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold is not going.

696
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 3: To be pressured? He was pressured in the playoffs, got

697
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 3: crushed in the playoffs.

698
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: So I worry that they've handled a lot of money

699
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 1: in the ball to a guy who isn't going to

700
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: have any protection. I would be buying the under on

701
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: the Seahawks eight and a half.

702
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting team where they've really revamped this

703
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 2: whole offense. And you know, I remember some jackass two

704
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: years ago said they potentially the three best wide receiver

705
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 2: trio and all the christ Yeah, ever, who the.

706
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 3: Fuck would say that? What kind of what kind of dickhead?

707
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 2: K DK Metcalf gone, Tyler Lockett gone. So they've gotten

708
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 2: rid of two of their studs, and you know they're

709
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 2: the biggest question to me is what you just talked about,

710
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 2: like got I think this went to reflects when you

711
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 2: just talk about their head coach that he's one of

712
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 2: the best defensive lines in all football. So you're gonna

713
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,879
Speaker 2: respect that their defense is gonna be, you know, top five,

714
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 2: top ten potentially, Like they should really get better a

715
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 2: year two of front of his defensive scheme, and you

716
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: know we saw last year they did improve his ear

717
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 2: win along defensively. But you just nailed it, like that

718
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,800
Speaker 2: fact that they brought in Sam Darnold and they knew

719
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,720
Speaker 2: they have a bottom three, bottom five offensive line. It's criminal,

720
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 2: it's it's his, it's his kryptonite. Like we saw when

721
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 2: that offensive line got banged up on the Vikings. He

722
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 2: struggled against Detroit, he struggled against the Rams, and that's

723
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: what it was. It was the pressure in his face

724
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 2: get him off his spot. And you know, the thing

725
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 2: that impressed me the most we talked about last year with

726
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 2: Sam Donald was how clutch he was in the fourth

727
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:05,919
Speaker 2: quarter last year and these one score games when everyone

728
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 2: was getting tight, he kept winning for the Vikings, which

729
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: was the biggest shocking part of that season last year,

730
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 2: the Vikings. But like you said, he had one of

731
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 2: the best offensive minds in his year at the time,

732
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 2: and he doesn't have that same benefit like Kevin O'Connell.

733
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 2: You know, not saying he makes these quarterbacks, but heah,

734
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 2: obviously he's a life length and he helps them improve greatly.

735
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: He's leaving that. So the one best season we've ever

736
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 2: seen from Sam under the toolage of a great offensive mind.

737
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 2: That's gone under a good you know, great weapons, i

738
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 2: should say, and Jefferson Addison at the wide receiver position

739
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 2: that's gone, and you've taken away his offensive line. How

740
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 2: can you be positive about this team? Like again, Colin Cowherd,

741
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: we know his love affair with Sam Donald, I get

742
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 2: why he would love the Seahawks. Anyone else outside that fandom,

743
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,240
Speaker 2: there's nothing there to grab onto that. It's like, Okay,

744
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 2: I am really excited and I really believe in this

745
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 2: team where he's got to ride this on their best

746
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 2: weapons at all offense, and that offensive line is not improved.

747
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 2: They did not address the biggest weakness of this team.

748
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,800
Speaker 2: So you know, to me, we always talk about coaching,

749
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 2: maybe there's gonna be some improvement, maybe being two down

750
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 2: on them, and then maybe I need to dive more

751
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 2: into them this preseason and watch more tape on their

752
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 2: offensive line and really break down see if they've improved

753
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 2: any way. But what I've seen in just two weeks

754
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 2: or a week and a half is it feels like

755
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,240
Speaker 2: same old, But it's hard to know because their defense

756
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 2: is just that much better than our offense, where the

757
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: defense feels like every day or winning the day by

758
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 2: the beat writers. So they're just another team like the Cardinals.

759
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 2: I'm just down on because I'm so high on the

760
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 2: rams of the forty nine ers. How do we not

761
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 2: take this win total under another team though that you know,

762
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 2: just like Cardinals, I have my model at them at eight.

763
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 2: It's doing the same thing year the Seahawks has them

764
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,439
Speaker 2: right at eight. I think as a humans, I dive

765
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 2: into it more. I don't think the computer realizes how

766
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 2: big of a downgraate it is going from that Vikings

767
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 2: team to the Seattle team. For Sam Donald, so I

768
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,399
Speaker 2: would put them at seven and a half, seven wins,

769
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 2: So I liked that under an eight and a half.

770
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at their schedule right now. They open

771
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 1: with the Niners at home, then they.

772
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 3: Go to steel to the Steelers.

773
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 1: They do, get the Saints at home after that, and

774
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 1: then they get the Cardinals on the road. They got

775
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 1: the Bucks, they got the Texans, they got the Commanders,

776
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 1: they got the Rams, they got the Vikings. Like, it's

777
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:26,240
Speaker 1: not a terrible schedule, but it's not the easiest schedule.

778
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,399
Speaker 2: No, it's not the forty nine ers schedule. That's their yeah,

779
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,239
Speaker 2: and the forty I have more talent, So that's what

780
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: It's just tough for Seattle, where like I see the future,

781
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 2: I see what they're doing there defensively, but offensively, it

782
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 2: feels like we're at least two years away, Like they

783
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 2: have to address offensive line. Like Darnold, we know he

784
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 2: has a talent. We know he can be clutch, but

785
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 2: we know his weakness. It's the offensive line. So it

786
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 2: feels like this is the type of team that they'll

787
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 2: struggle this year and then we'll hear at the whole offseason.

788
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 2: We know what I need to do, so you don't

789
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 2: need to address the offensive line, and that's hopefully what

790
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 2: they'll do next year because they kind of wasted this

791
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:01,399
Speaker 2: year not attacking offense. And again, it's hard to do,

792
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 2: but there are pieces out there, right there were guys

793
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 2: available from different teams, all offensive line wise, and that

794
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 2: they didn't they didn't go out to attack this position.

795
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's gonna be tough Seattle. They're just

796
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 2: I don't know. I feel I would hate to be

797
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 2: a fan of their team right now because it feels

798
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 2: like they're just like one of these midle level teams

799
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 2: that you don't really believe they'll ever win a Super Bowl,

800
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 2: but when every bad enough to get the one or

801
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 2: two top picks. So it's tough right now for Seattle,

802
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 2: where you know Sam Donal might be your answer for

803
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 2: the next two three years, whether you like it or not.

804
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:34,360
Speaker 1: All Right, so let's run through this. My favorite bets

805
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 1: in the Division. Niners Super Bowl odds twenty to one,

806
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 1: not my favorite number. We got it at a better number.

807
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: Niners over ten and a half, Seahawks under eight and

808
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: a half.

809
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 3: What are yours?

810
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll definitely put win total for forty nine ers.

811
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:00,320
Speaker 2: My number one bet for this division ten ten and

812
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,799
Speaker 2: a half. Love that over and then right behind it

813
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 2: love the Rams obviously over nine and a half. Yeah,

814
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,320
Speaker 2: if you're if you're gonna make me take one of

815
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 2: these unders, which one I'd like more? I'll join in

816
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 2: the Seattle one. I just I think they have a

817
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 2: much much lower floor than this Cardinals team, which is

818
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 2: it could go really bad for this this Seattle team

819
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: pretty quick if they just have no offensive output. So yeah,

820
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 2: I'll join you on that under eight and a half

821
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:26,800
Speaker 2: on that Seattle team.

822
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 1: All Right, we have gone through this week the AFC

823
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: and NFC West. We will return with our next episode

824
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 1: Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page, where we will

825
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 1: cover our next NFL division preview. Download us on Spotify,

826
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 1: Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,

827
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is

828
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 1: a gift. Until next time, Love you.

829
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.

830
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,720
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831
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832
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