WEBVTT - Trump Says Iran Talks in Pakistan This Week 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:10.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:15.920 This Weekend podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Elisa Matteo. 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:20.560 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:20.959 the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.479 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.800 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:29.000 every Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern. 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:32.760 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:38.240 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle, 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:39.120 and culture. 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:43.920 President Trump has confirmed US negotiators are heading to Pakistan 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.600 tomorrow for meetings that we'll start on Tuesday, and the 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:49.199 straight offore Movis remains a key sticking point between the 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.280 US and Iran as the key energy choke point remains. 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:52.640 Closed back with US. 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:56.120 As Bloomberg's whe House correspondent Courtney Supermanian and Courtney If 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:57.920 your phone rings. During the course of this interview, the 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.200 President has talked to Jonathan carl He's talked to Fox News, 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:02.560 He's talked to ms NOW. If your phone rings and 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:04.440 you need to take it, nothing here on mind as 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.720 well take the call if you need to, we will 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:09.280 proceed without you until then, though you have been synthesizing 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:11.399 all that the President has been saying in these phone interviews. 0:01:11.720 --> 0:01:14.560 Give us the latest on what we know of these meetings, 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:15.880 the second round of talks that are going to be 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:19.119 taking place here in Pakistan as the week begins. 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:22.800 Yeah, as you mentioned, he's given a series of interviews 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:25.760 this morning, he's taken to true social He's trying to 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:29.720 set the tone of what to expect in the coming days, 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:33.080 and that is that Special Envoys Steve Whitkoff and Jared 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:38.600 Kushner will return to Islamabad tomorrow evening for talks. He 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:42.720 has just told MS now that JD Vance is not 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:47.080 attending those talks for security reasons. I have actually while 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:51.400 we're sitting here, texting the Vice President's staff to try 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:55.000 and confirm that. But I think all of this just underscores, 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:57.920 in the last seventy two hours, just how much whiplash 0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:03.160 we're seeing here, and just underscores the unpredictable nature of 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:07.600 this conflict and the erratic and sometimes contradictory messaging we've 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:10.440 seen from the President. I think it's important to remember 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:14.880 that Friday he told us that an agreement was all 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:20.160 but agreed to, which included concessions that Iran had never 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:24.720 publicly agreed to. He even told ABC that he trusted 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:28.640 the Iranians, and then, of course he crucially left the 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:32.359 blockade of the Straight in place until an agreement was finalized, 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:36.160 which prompted Tehran to close the Straight again and set 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:39.880 this whole off, this whole situation off, and now we're 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:43.680 seeing him again threaten Iranian power plants in bridges if 0:02:43.720 --> 0:02:46.760 they don't take the deal, you know, again escalating the 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:50.440 rhetoric ahead of negotiations, which is of course a tactic 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:54.280 we've seen him use over and over again in this conflict. 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.480 Counie, one of the things I found interesting is having 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:01.399 covered the first Trump administration, as we all did, when 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:04.120 they pulled out of the around nuclear deal the first time, 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:06.079 and even on the campaign trail leading up to that, 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:09.480 the President was so critical of Iran, saying they couldn't 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:11.440 be trusted, They could never be trusted to get into 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:13.600 any kind of a nuclear deal and stick to it, 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:16.839 They couldn't be trusted as negotiators. You know, where has 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:19.480 that changed? Why has that changed? And why is the 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:22.200 president suddenly willing to take them at their word in 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:25.280 these negotiations, in pursuit of a deal that seems like 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:26.800 it's going to look very much like the one he 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:27.959 pulls out of in the first place. 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:32.560 That's a great question. I do think that the President 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:35.080 is looking for an off ramp. I think he is 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:41.080 realizing the economic repercussions are really bearing out both globally 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:43.800 but here at home as we look ahead to November 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:47.040 and we see Americans really start to feel the economic 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.800 pain of this at the gas pump, right And so 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:54.240 this time, you know, this is the situation of his making, 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:58.480 and he is looking for any opportunity to bring this 0:03:59.120 --> 0:04:02.360 conflict to an end and move on. And so I 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:06.480 think that has allowed him to sort of vacillate between 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:10.360 you know, these this escalating rhetoric where he's really ramping 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:13.920 up pressure but then taking the Iranians at their word 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:16.040 that this that that they're going to come to the 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:18.280 table and agree to a deal. But as you know, 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:21.719 the Iranians are very good at dragging out negotiations. 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:24.680 All right, courtnessy reminding our White House correspondent, thank you 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:27.360 so much for Johnny us this morning. Joining us now 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:30.000 is former Defense Secretary Mark Esper he served in President 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:33.520 Trump's first administration. Mister secretary, thank you for being with us. 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:35.839 The first question I want to ask you is, when 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:39.440 you look at this negotiating team, Steve Wikoff, Jared Kushner, 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:41.280 it looks like Vice President Vance, we're learning this morning, 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:43.600 will not be going for the second round of negotiations. 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:45.280 Do you think they're up to the task. 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:49.360 Well, they have the President's trust, so in that regard, 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:51.479 they are up to the task. Though I assume that 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:55.280 the Iranians will interpret the Vice President not coming as 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:58.320 a downgrading of these this next round of talks, which 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.480 could be the last round of talks for anytime soon, 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.000 and so they may pull back on their delegation, which 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:05.800 I think it's going to be hard to get a 0:05:06.000 --> 0:05:09.840 deal done, at least a deal in principle for that reason. 0:05:09.960 --> 0:05:11.800 And then if you're going to believe the president, then 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:15.440 the President says the attacks will begin, you know, following 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:17.280 that if the talks fail, if they don't sign the deal, 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:18.839 I think is what he literally said. If they don't 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:22.719 sign the deal on Tuesday before the ceasefire, then he's 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:25.080 going to go after their energy, after their infrastructure, after 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:25.800 their power plants. 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:28.680 Mister Secretary, I want to ask you about the chronology here. 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:31.040 So we had the announcement from the Iranian Ford Minister 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:32.760 that the strait was open on Friday morning. Then a 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:35.359 few hours later we saw a great deal of confusion. 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:38.080 So and as the President indicated that blockade was going 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:39.440 to stay in place. And that's kind of where I 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:41.080 want to go with you. Is the role of that 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:43.800 blockade going forward here? The importance of it as you 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.040 see it. Is it something that you see as being 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:47.960 negotiable here? Do you think it will be negotiated upon 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:49.600 in those meetings in Islamabad? 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:52.480 Well, I think, first of all, part of the blockade 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:55.120 with regard to Iran, when the Foreign Minister came out, 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:57.360 what he did say is it would be it was lifted, 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:00.720 but he mentioned the conditions, and the nisitions, of course 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:03.360 were still that shipping had to follow this new route 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.120 which was close to the Iranian coastline between their islands, 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:09.200 and that they would be managed by the IRGC, the 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:14.920 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, But that wasn't reported as loudly. 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:17.000 It was just that they had opened it. 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:18.640 And then of course there was a lot of friction 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:21.800 within Iran with the hardliners saying that the Forem Minister 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:25.560 had overstepped his bounds. It was the wrong message, and 0:06:25.600 --> 0:06:27.360 in fact they were going to do all those things 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:30.719 plus charged tolls, and that caused the counter reaction. Look, 0:06:30.760 --> 0:06:35.520 I think President Trump keeping putting the blockade on Iran 0:06:36.080 --> 0:06:38.080 what a few days ago was a smart move. I 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:41.280 think there's no reason why Iran should allow be allowed 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:43.920 to reap the benefits of oil revenues coming out of 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:48.440 golf and sustain its fight while shipping from friendly countries 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:49.440 is not allowed to go. 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:51.240 So I thought that mate was smart. 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:54.000 I think that's what put pressure on the Iranians, and 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:55.720 I was a little surprised that he didn't. 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:56.839 Lift it when they lifted it. 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.520 But nonetheless, we are where we are this morning with 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:01.960 both it's clamping down on control of the straight and 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:04.640 it effectively bottled up at this point in time once again. 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:07.000 And what do you make of the President's renewed threats 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:09.520 here this morning? He says he will go after every 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:12.400 single power point and every single bridge and Iran no more. 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:15.080 Mister nice guy, do you consider that a war crime? 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:17.640 And what does it mean for the state as a whole? 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.120 David was asking earlier wouldn't that just lead to a 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:23.640 failed state If there's no infrastructure left, there's no power 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:25.840 center left, there's no ability to have a democracy. 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:29.160 And Iran, well, first of all, that's his negotiating style, 0:07:29.240 --> 0:07:33.680 right to threaten and to amp up the rhetoric and 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:36.960 maybe force them to step down or at least reconsider 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:39.760 that their position in the Iranians and so and so 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:42.240 he's going back to where he was just about a 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:45.080 week ago, I think, in terms of timing. So that's 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:48.040 not surprising. You know, this question with regard to war crimes, 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:51.720 it all depends on how the planners, the targeteers, and 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:55.480 the lawyers look at different targets, whether it's a power 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:59.600 plant or a bridge or a highway, and how close 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:02.120 it's connection is to the military. So, for example, if 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.239 you have a power plant sitting on a military base 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:07.400 powering that base, then it's a legitimate target. As you 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:10.840 get further and further away from such direct connectivity, then 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:12.800 it becomes more dubious. And so I think they're going 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:14.320 to have the military is gonna have to work through 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:17.640 all those different issues case by case, target by target 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:20.760 to come to that final understanding. If indeed that is 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:23.160 where the military goes in this next phase. 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:24.880 I think the thing that has led to a lot 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:27.000 of the fogginess we've experienced over the last thirty six 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:28.840 or forty eight hours, it's just not being able to 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.320 get a sense of degree to which what the President 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:33.000 is saying the Orionions have agreed to is in fact 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:34.920 what they have agreed to. And you know, well the 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:37.840 difficulties of engaging in any kind of diplomacy or negotiations 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:39.760 with Rians. Of course, you were in the first term 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:42.559 when the President pulled out of the jc POA talk 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:45.040 a bit about that, if you would, the way the 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:47.520 US can verify what in fact the Audians are actually 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:50.640 saying they're doing what they have done. Yes, perhaps this 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:53.200 will be haggled out over the table there in Islamabad. 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.440 But leading up to it, how do we know what 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:55.760 we know? 0:08:55.960 --> 0:08:57.720 To ask? A very base can cover some question. 0:08:58.360 --> 0:08:59.200 Yeah, look, it's tough. 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:02.160 I mean, obviously the President raises his expectations with some 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:03.120 of the things he says. 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:04.960 Maybe he's picking up. 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.480 Spot reports from his advisors, which which maybe is missing 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:12.679 some nuance, but nonetheless the expectation was real. Or as 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:14.720 the President's been saying that we're very, very close to 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:16.720 a deal, that it's that they want it really badly. 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:19.520 And then what you hear coming out of Iran as 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.080 recently as the last twenty four hours, where the lead negotiator, 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:26.440 Speaker Glibof has said, yes, progress was made in Islamabad 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:30.000 last week, but we are far from a significant There 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:34.120 are significant differences between our negotiating positions. Now he's the 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:38.960 lead negotiator and un paraphrasing, but that shows. 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:39.680 There's a much bigger gap. 0:09:39.760 --> 0:09:39.920 Now. 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:42.600 Look, I'll also say that what the Iranians say publicly 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:45.320 to the West and what they say privately to their 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:47.240 own people are two different things because they're trying to 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.600 manage the domestic audience. So it is hard to pass 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:51.840 through what's going on. But when I look at each 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:55.640 side's negotiating positions, going back to the fifteen points proposed 0:09:55.640 --> 0:10:01.720 by President Trump and the ten points proposed by. 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:04.160 The Iranians, I just see few areas of agreement. The 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:04.760 big issues. 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:07.400 There's a major disagreement when it comes to nuclear richment, 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:12.640 when it comes to returning the nuclear fuel, when it 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:14.199 comes to what's going to be the future of the 0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:16.199 straight of hor Moves. I mean, when we talked yesterday 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:18.800 about what the Foreign Minister said and what the IRGC 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:21.120 is saying is the new normal they want to establish 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:23.480 is that they have sovereignty over the strait and they 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:27.160 will control manage who goes through, and they will impose tolls, 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:30.360 much like what happens at the Panama Canal. And that's 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:35.000 clearly something we the West cannot tolerate. So I think 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:36.280 this is just going to have to play out of 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:38.760 the coming days. I still see the positions based on 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:41.760 my historical understanding of where both sides are. It's too 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:43.880 far apart to get a deal here in the next 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:45.200 forty eight to seventy two hours. 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:48.439 Do you think this conflict was a strategic blunder by 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:51.120 the US given that Iran has now figured out even 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:53.040 if it gives up its nuclear program, it has a 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:55.760 more powerful card to play in closing the. 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:57.160 Strait, at least economically. Ye. 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.240 You know, you can't tally the score until the game's over. 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:05.120 And you know, right now, obviously we've had considerable progress 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.280 at the military level, which with regard to taking down 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:13.280 the military objectives of defeating their navy, degrading their air defense, 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:17.280 their air force, so forth, and saw on. But at 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:20.120 this point time, at the strategic level, we know that 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:25.880 Iran is still refusing to yield to our nuclear demands, 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:28.360 and that was ostensibly the reason why we got into 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:31.440 this conflict eight weeks ago. If you recall in Geneva, 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.400 whit Cough and Kushner said, look, the Iranians aren't serious 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.240 on the nuclear issue. We need to try something different, 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:41.280 and that's when Operation Epic Fury was Lost was launched. 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:43.559 I'm sorry. So would you. 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.240 In your time, if the president came to you when 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:49.120 you were running the Pentagon, would you have said this 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:49.800 was a good idea. 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:52.280 Well, this happened to times during my tenure. 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:54.560 I would say, look, these are the things we can do, 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:57.719 but wars are unpredictable. Once you get into them, it's 0:11:57.720 --> 0:11:59.200 easy to get in, but hard to get out. And 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:01.840 I talk about this a lot in my memoir about 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:03.720 how we would have these discussions, and it would be 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:07.000 myself and the Chairman warning about getting into a conflict 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:09.640 without positioning troops in advance, without being prepared for a 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.920 ground war, and without being prepared for all these other 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:15.280 consequences we're seeing. So that's look that I thought that 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:18.200 was my job a to prepare plans to go to war, 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.640 make sure the force is ready, but b give my 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:23.280 best advice with regard to the pros and cons. And 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:28.480 you know there's been documentation about the presence of russ 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.240 being at various positions on this with regard to getting it. 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:35.400 But the views he felt emboldened after after what happened 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:39.480 last June with Midnight Hammer, with the Venezuela operation, and 0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:43.400 was maybe convinced that if he did this operation decapitated 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:44.560 the government, they might fall. 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:46.319 And clearly clearly it didn't. 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:48.839 Let me ask you lastly about Lebanon, which of course 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:50.400 has been such a crucial issue here, and we have 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:53.559 headlines this morning from Israel's Defense Minster saying he and 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:55.760 Benjamin and Yahoo instructed the idea of to ask with 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.679 act with all force from the ground, from the air, 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:01.000 even during the ceasefire, to protect our soldiers in Lebanon 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:03.720 from any threat. A crucial issue year for the US 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:05.600 is the greed to which they and Israel are going 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:07.520 to be on the same page. How big a challenge 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:08.960 is that going to be going forward here? 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:12.679 Well, Israel clearly has different goals than we have when 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.840 it comes to both Iran and Lebanon, and the Lebanon 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:17.840 issue has been dragging on for the Israelis as long 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.760 as Hesbelah has been in existence since the early nineteen eighties. 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:22.920 So and this isn't the first time that there's been 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:25.200 some type of agreement or a commitment by the Lebanese 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.200 government to disarm Hesbelah to move them back up north. 0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:31.120 So look, I think Israel clearly wants to go in 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:34.960 and push the Hesbela further north of the Latawni River, 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:38.040 disarm them once again, take out their leadership. But they're 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.960 playing to President Trump's fiddle right now because Trump wants 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.520 a deal, and to get the deal, he had to 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:47.840 push them to us to have a ceasefire with the Lebanese, 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.240 with Hesbela, to be more specific, in order to get 0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:52.800 the Iranians to back down a little bit. So I 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.280 think the question will be is if the ceasefire between 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.520 the United States and Iran breaks down in three days, 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:01.839 will the ceasefire between hesb Law and Israel also break down? 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:03.480 That'll be an important point to watch. 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:05.400 I mean, very quickly, what do you think will happen? 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:06.360 Do you think it will break down? 0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:11.679 Where the rhetoric is this morning, I see it very 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:13.880 hard to get an agreement in forty eight hours. So 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:16.640 my sense is the President might be forced to launch 0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:19.360 some type of military tax to live up to what 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.640 he said, rather than kind of yielding or extending the agreement. 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:23.920 But who knows, we'll see. 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:25.960 Thank you so much for taking time. Former Defense of 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:27.560 Tarry Mark Esper joining us this morning. 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.360 Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:47.400 Right after this, President Trump says Special Envoy Steve Witkoff 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:49.880 will head to Islamabad for talks on Tuesday, if that 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.840 could last until Wednesday, after Ron reversed this decision to 0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:55.640 reopen shipping to the strait of horror moves. Energy Secretary 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:57.840 Chris Wright was on CNN's State of the Union earlier 0:14:57.880 --> 0:14:59.720 and had this to say about negotiations. 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:02.360 Negotiations are going very well. 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:04.800 A lot of the chatter and noise you here in 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:08.240 public is really the signs of a regime that's falling apart. 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:12.240 Different factions go in different directions. They're worried about trying 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:14.960 to get some leverage at the end of these negotiations. 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:17.800 I think President Trump and Vice President Vance have us 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:20.520 on a pathway to a good ending of this conflict 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:21.200 before long. 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.440 Join US now is access is White House supporter Marcapudo 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:26.720 and Atlantic staff rider Nancy useef Mark. Let me start 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.080 with you and just get your read of the latest here, 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:31.720 the present making the rounds over the course of the morning, 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.760 indicating that Steve Woodcoff Jared christ are gonna be the point. 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:37.440 People go into these talks curious what you make of 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.120 that the latest there, and sort of what you think 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:42.160 will be notably different at this meeting compared to the 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.640 one that took place between JD. Vance and his running 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:45.640 counterparts last week. 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:48.360 Well, I have no idea what's going to be notably different. 0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:50.840 One of the things that seems to be through line 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.840 is everything seems to be notably the same. The only 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:56.240 through line we have so far is that there's generally 0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:59.480 a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, between Israel 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:03.400 and Lebanon. But otherwise everyone keeps claiming that progress is 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:07.040 being made, but what's really happening. As a result, we've 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.560 had a few things in axios that we had reported. 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:12.720 One that there is an idea out there that the 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:17.320 US had started to advance of providing Iran access to 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:21.840 its frozen assets, its currency bank accounts, essentially of about 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:25.080 twenty billion dollars in return for them giving up uranium 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:28.320 to the United States. It's highly rich uranium stockpiles. The 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.560 Iranians wanted more money, and then the President came out 0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:33.280 and said he wasn't going to do this. However, there 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:37.880 remained the very big issues, which is Iran has highly 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:42.160 enriched uranium, the United States has access to Iran's money 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.600 and has basically frozen them out from it. That's a 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:48.120 possible trade item. Iran has closed the straight of horm moves, 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:50.720 the United States wants it open and has a blockade. 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:54.440 Those things seem tradable. And then more broadly, the United 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:58.280 States has lots of weaponry and sanctions against Iran. Iran 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:01.920 funds terrorist proxy groups like Hamas, has Bulla and Houthis, 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:04.639 and so that also seems to be a trade item. 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.479 But so far we have not seen anything in writing 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:11.000 that clearly shows what's up for trade, what's up for discussion, 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:13.640 what the progress is. So until then you have statements 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:16.080 from President Trump and what you just played there, and 0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:19.600 Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying all this progress is happening, 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:21.479 and then you have the running saying no, no, it's not. 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:24.239 We do know they're talking, because obviously they're talking, and 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:25.320 also they're not shooting. 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:29.240 I do need to ask you, as we were speaking 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:34.040 at your Axios colleague, Brockervied was now contradicting the President, 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:36.680 who said earlier that Vice President Jadevans would not be 0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:39.600 attending these talks. Axios is now reporting that Vice President 0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:42.000 jd Vance will lead the US delegation for another right 0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:43.960 of talks Islamabad. I know you've been on with us, 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:45.880 but I didn't know if if you'd heard that as well, 0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:46.680 and what you're thinking. 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:46.840 Is on that. 0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:48.400 I didn't want to come out and say it because 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:49.760 I wasn't sure if it had come out yet. It 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:52.360 would be a shocking breach of protocol if jady Vance 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.200 were not there. So when you just listed those two 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:57.960 names and didn't list jade Vance, I was rather surprised. Yes, 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:01.159 jady Vance is the lead negotiatory supposed to be, and 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:03.040 he's going to be taking that role here as well. 0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:05.760 All right, Nancy, let's go to you. I want to 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:07.879 talk to you about some of the mixed messaging we're getting, 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.000 not just from the administration but also on the Iranian 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:14.680 side as well. We've had infighting between IRGC members and 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:19.520 political more political elites. We've had this very bellicose tweet 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:22.560 this morning or social media posts from the President threatening 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:25.920 to once again take out Iran's bridges and power plants, 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:28.679 but at the same time going back to talks and 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:31.000 saying things are progressing and they think that the US 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:32.800 can get a deal. What is going on here? 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:36.720 So you make a very important point because over the 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.159 end of the weekend, or at least on Friday, we 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:42.800 saw talks about a ceasefire from the Foreign Minister, for 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.359 only the state news media to say that actually the 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:48.399 Aya Tola was on board. And the reason that was 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:52.560 significant not just because it impacts the talks, but it 0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:56.320 was the first rule break we've seen our fissures within 0:18:56.440 --> 0:19:00.879 the regime, something we've been looking for as a sign 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:06.720 of potential fractures for the regime, and so that was noteworthy. 0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:09.399 But I think you get at a very important point 0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:14.040 is we're also seeing some broken patterns in the United 0:19:14.119 --> 0:19:18.800 States where the President, facing challenges in terms of reaching 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.600 a strategic outcome that is beneficial to the United States, 0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:26.880 is turning back to tactical threats. We saw this earlier 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:31.480