WEBVTT - Week 10 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 128) 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:16.720 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:18.960 to you by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:21.040 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is 0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:23.680 time to talk about our best bets for Week ten 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:25.840 of the NFL season. Here with me to do that 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:28.240 is Ben Stevens, host of the Morning After over on 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:31.760 Sports Grid. Find him on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens. Ben, 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:33.920 thank you for taking time out of your very busy 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:35.480 schedule to pop on today. 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:37.879 How you doing I'm doing well, Dan, thank you for 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:40.720 having me. When Joe Pieceapia comes calling, who is the 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:43.480 one that introduced us from Fantasy Pros, I often listen, 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:46.040 and when Joe P asked for something, I like to 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:48.040 oblige as best I can. So I'm very glad to 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:49.760 be here and I'm excited to talk to NFL football 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:49.960 with you. 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:53.479 Well, your opinion already means less to me than what 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:55.760 it did before if you are valuing Joey P. But 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.200 I do appreciate Joe's healthier and getting us together. All right, 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:01.280 let's get into it. But you guys know what the 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.560 show is. We are going to give our three favorite 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:06.399 bets for this weekend. It can be anything, can be spread, 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:09.080 can be total, can be moneyline, can be player across, 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.400 whatever we want, and then we will quickly just run 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:14.040 through the remaining spreads. Just you can get our very 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:16.240 very brief thoughts on it before we get into it. 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.440 Let me remind you about our latest offer from bet mgm. 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:21.840 Our sponsor new customers, bet ten dollars and when two 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:23.360 hundred dollars at the team you bet. 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:24.960 On scores a touchdown. 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:27.000 That is all you got to use the code Juice 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:30.000 one hundred, which is based on our other podcast, The 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:31.559 Daily Juice hosted by Matt Parut. 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:33.480 This is available in New Jersey. 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:38.480 Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, 0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:42.120 d C, Arizona, and Wyoming. Again just one hundred over 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:44.800 at bet MGM. For new customers, bet ten dollars when 0:01:44.800 --> 0:01:46.800 two hundred dollars at the team you bet on scores 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:47.640 a touchdown. 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:48.640 Quick recapable. 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:50.600 Last week, our guest Andrew Kayley went two and one. 0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:52.720 He hit on the Chargers, laying two to the Eagles, 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:54.920 the Bears getting six and a half from the Steelers. 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:58.400 He missed on the Chiefs, team total over twenty seven 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:00.240 and a half. I also went to one and I 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:02.560 hit on the Browns getting two and a half from 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:05.240 the Bengals, the Vikings, and the Ravens going over fifty. 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:07.440 But I missed on the forty nine Ers laying one 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:10.679 to the Cardinals. That puts me at sixteen and eleven 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:13.200 through nine weeks with our best bets. All right, we're 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:16.080 going to bettingpros dot com for the aggregate lines. You 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:20.160 guys know all about that there. Let's start with you, Ben, 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:21.560 what's your top pick of the weekend? 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:23.200 Dan, I didn't know there was going to be a 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:26.520 recap portion for next week's podcast looking back at these picks, 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:28.320 So now I'm a little bit scared to my future 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.280 self into the future audience out there. Hopefully I did 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.400 not lead you astray. So one of my favorite bets 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:36.640 this weekend is the New Orleans Saints getting points on 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:38.600 the road against the Tennessee Titans. Yes, I know that 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:41.680 sounds like a scary proposition. The Saints lost last week 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:44.680 in an absolute dud to the Atlanta Falcons. The Tennessee 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:46.680 Titans might be the hottest team in all of football. 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.079 They have won five straight. They have covered in five 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:52.000 straight the last four even as an underdog. But there 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:54.280 is an interesting trend going on in the NFL right 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:56.440 now that I have liked to capitalize on this year, 0:02:56.480 --> 0:02:59.040 and that's when a team puts out a dud, they 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:01.480 generally bounce back pretty well the following week. And that 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:03.640 is the case for the New Orleans Saints right now. 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:06.040 Following a loss this year, New Orleans is two and 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:08.839 zero against the number, and they are covering by that 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:11.600 number of thirteen and a half points per game and 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:14.680 the two times they have responded after a loss, So 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:17.640 I like where New Orleans is where it currently stands. 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:20.160 And New Orleans, even being on the road, getting points 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:22.120 has been pretty good as an underdog so far this 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:24.840 year three and zero against the spread as an underdog. 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:27.600 And I mentioned Tennessee has been so great lately four 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:30.920 straight covers as a dog themselves as a favorite this 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:33.800 year just two and two against the spread. So I 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:35.920 think that the good times have been rolling for the 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:38.560 Tennessee Titans. They head back to the Music City. Hard 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.400 to pick against them, I think, just at this point, 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:44.680 maybe things slow down. A response last week after losing 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:46.720 Derrick Henry not saying this is going to be the 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:49.400 trend for Tennessee moving forward, just in this one spot 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:51.320 this week that the winning streak has to come to 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.880 an end sometime, Why not against the New Orleans Saints 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:55.880 getting two and a half points this upcoming Sunday. 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:58.280 At some point the magic has to end here, right 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:01.600 for the Titans, Like no, the reason than just mentally 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:04.600 and emotionally getting up for these giant games and somehow 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:07.680 pulling out these these incredible victories. At some point, there's 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:10.000 going to be a letdown. This would have been my pick. 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:12.840 I told you I like to ask the guests generally 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:14.840 to send me his fix. This would have been one 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.039 of mine as well, which is good that we're on 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:18.840 the same side. And again there are some threes out there. 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:21.200 I'm looking over it's two and a half or threes 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.120 for me. At DraftKings it's two and a half. And 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:26.160 at Fendal you know, at bet MGM it's three. At 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.080 points Bet it's three. So you can get some threes 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:30.680 out there. Yeah, Sean Payton, just generally, man, you know, 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:34.120 against the spread as an underdog generally pretty good. And 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:36.599 again you're right, the trendses here at teams, especially coming 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:38.880 off a loss against the spread versus teams coming off 0:04:38.920 --> 0:04:41.560 a win against the spread. It very much favors the underdog. 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:43.680 So I do like this one as well. It would 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:46.760 have been on mine, but I cannot take it. Obviously, 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:48.560 you take it, but I'm backing you, and hopefully next 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:51.960 week people look back fondly on that one. I'm gonna 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:55.080 go here. You know, I argued with this one with 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:58.479 Joe when we did the look ahead lines on podcasts 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:00.520 on Tuesday about what we thought he was on the 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:01.240 other side. 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:03.239 I said I'd revisit. I did revisit. 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:06.560 I held my stance. I'm still sticking with the Browns 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.719 getting two and a half against the Patriots in New England. 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:12.680 So this is really same as last week where I 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:14.760 sat the Browns getting the points against the Bengals. I 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.039 still think the Browns are a little bit undervalued here 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:18.640 in the market, and I think the Patriots might be 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:21.280 a little overvalued. We started with the Patriots. I mean, 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:23.720 they're five and four before their wins. Two of them 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:26.480 have come against the Jets, one of them against the Texans, 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:29.240 and then one of them against the Panthers with pretty 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:31.760 injured Sam Darnold. They've got injuries at running back right now. 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:35.360 Neither Damien Harrison Normandro Stephenson has practiced yet this week, 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:38.760 including today as they recover from head injury potential concussions. 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:41.720 Mac Jones really just a game manager like most quarterbacks. 0:05:41.760 --> 0:05:43.760 Not great under pressure. That is what Cleveland does. They 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.200 get a ton of pressure, second highest clip in the 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:48.440 league at a twenty eight point four percent pressure rate. 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:51.159 And the Browns, I'm just buying the Browns. I think 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:53.960 they are coming together here after Odell Beckham Junior is out. 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:56.320 I think Baker Mayfield plays better without Odell Beckham Junior. 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:58.400 They used to be a joke. Now it's for real. 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:00.960 Nick Chubb is probably going to be out for this game. 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:03.560 That of course is worth mentioning. Not definitely yet. I 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:05.960 haven't seen anything that says that he officially. You know, 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:08.800 it's very difficult to get the two, you know, negative 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:10.960 COVID tests in twenty four hours when you test positive 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:13.040 on the Tuesday, but it is possible. But either way, 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:16.440 we saw Dean mis Johnson perform well against the Browns 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.120 and the against the Broncos pardon me, and the Pats 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:21.720 of a great defense, but they're much better against the 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:25.120 past six and defensive Dvoa against the past, seventeenth against 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:26.719 the run. They don't get a ton of pressure, just 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:29.080 eighteen the pressure rates. So the bottom line is, I 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.240 just I think the Browns are better team. There's six 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:35.760 overall in Dvoa. The Patriots are thirteenth home field. They're 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:37.479 one and four at home, so it's not like homefield 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.200 advantage is what he used to be with Brady. So 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:41.440 I don't know, Man, I think the Browns find a 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:43.640 way to win this game, so I will certainly take 0:06:43.880 --> 0:06:45.440 them getting two and a half here. 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:48.280 Yeah, Dan, I love that spot honestly for the Cleveland Browns. 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:50.160 It's something we were monitoring all week on the show. 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:52.080 I looked at this line on Tuesday. It was at 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:53.960 two and a half for an opener in favor of 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:55.760 the Patriots. I saw it come down all the way 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:57.600 to one. So I thought there was some early sharp 0:06:57.640 --> 0:07:00.520 movement early in the week on the Cleveland Browns, thinking, hey, 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:02.600 we're getting them as a dog even in this situation. 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:05.200 And it's not like Juette has been a great home 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:08.040 field advantage for mac Jones in his rookie season one 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:10.280 and four straight up, two and three against the spread. 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:12.520 I kind of like Cleveland in what might be a 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.200 close game, and I think Cleveland getting the points in 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:17.120 this situation is a really good spot to have the 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:17.880 Browns this Sunday. 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:19.960 Yeah, and there is a one and a half. You're right, 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:21.760 it had moved a little bit fandual by the way, 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:23.320 still at one and a half. I'm just looking at 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:25.440 the contensus lines at Benning CROs. There's a two out 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:27.520 there over at bet MGM, but the bast Man Dirty 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:29.200 Book still at two and a half, including my book 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:32.000 again DraftKings here from New Hampshire, so the consensus line 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:33.400 stays at two and a half. I will take it. 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:35.440 But yeah, it's not getting a three like that's where 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:37.400 I thought it was. If anything, it's sort of bouncing 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:39.520 back down there. So yeah, I do think the Browns 0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:42.160 win this game. I'll back them again as the short 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:44.920 underdog here as I did last week. Number two pick 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:45.800 ben go for it. 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:49.040 I am going to a total that features a team 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:51.000 called the New York Jets. And I know that might 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:54.440 sound like a crazy proposition and I understand, but follow 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:57.720 me here. The New York Jets have played five straight 0:07:57.960 --> 0:08:00.840 games too, and over let us not forget Thursday night 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:03.880 against the Indianapolis Colts when we had seen six straight 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:07.000 unders hit on Thursday Night Football. The Jets said enough 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:09.040 of that, and it was a game where they allowed 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.120 forty five points a week following or two weeks following 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:14.840 allowing fifty four to the New England Patriots, and the 0:08:14.840 --> 0:08:17.720 Colts and the Jets combine for seventy five points on 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:20.320 Thursday Night Football. So the Jets have played in five 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.280 straight overs and the over under total that I see 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:25.360 now for the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:28.280 at MetLife on Sunday is forty eight. It opened it 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:30.600 forty eight, came down by a hook to forty seven 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:32.200 and a half as I saw it, now back to 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:35.480 forty eight. I like it there. Although Buffalo has not 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:38.280 been quite as good offensively the last couple of weeks 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.880 aka the six they scored against the Jacksonville Jaguars, still 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:45.160 the fourth best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging just 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:48.160 below thirty points. I think they want to reinstate the 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:50.160 fact they are one of the best offensive teams and 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:53.360 can be that explosive, and it's a good opportunity against 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:55.839 the New York Jets, because again, although the Jets have 0:08:55.920 --> 0:08:58.160 played five straight overs. A lot of that has come 0:08:58.400 --> 0:09:00.600 from New York allowing their opponent to rack up the 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:03.320 points fifty four to the pass three weeks ago. Last 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:05.640 week on Thursday night, they gave up forty five to 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.599 the Indianapolis Colts on a short week, even that overtime 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:11.400 thrilling win or the upset win rather against the Cincinnati 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.319 Bengals that didn't quite reach overtime, they allowed Sincy to 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:16.920 score thirty one points. I think the Bills can get 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:19.240 over thirty pretty easily, and I actually think the Jets 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:21.040 are going to add a little bit to the equation 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:23.760 as well. So I was thinking about a Buffalo team total, 0:09:24.000 --> 0:09:25.840 but that spurned me in the past a couple of 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:28.480 weeks ago against the Miami Dolphins. So I decided just 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:31.319 game total overall. Knowing the trends for the Jets, and 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:33.680 although Buffalo has played five of the last eight games 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:36.960 to the under, including two straight unders, I still think 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.319 that Buffalo and New York can combine to score more 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:40.600 than forty eight points on Sunday. 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:41.560 Yeah, I like it. 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:43.760 There are forty seven and a halfs out there still, 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:44.960 As you mentioned, it's back and forth. 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:45.560 A lot of books. 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.319 Most books at forty eight, some in forty seven and 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:49.240 a half again including draftings where. 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:50.560 I bet, But yeah, I like it. 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:52.599 I do think this is it has to be a 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:54.600 get right spot here for the Bills offense. Has it 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:56.760 sputtered a little bit, as you know we were talking 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:58.800 about over the last couple of weeks, but this is 0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:02.600 a great spot for them. The Jets secondary, which had 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:07.280 admirably played pretty decently in the first few weeks, has 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:09.560 now basically shown what it is, which is a bunch 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:12.240 of no names and can be easily exploited by really 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:14.640 any of the Bills wide receivers. And I do think 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:17.800 that the league sort of hasn't yet figured out Mike White, 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:19.840 who is going to start in this game, and he 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.360 has played better than expected, so I do still think 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.559 we've got another week or two where he's going to 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:27.040 be I mean, they might have won that game frankly 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:29.160 had White not getting injured. I mean, they were given 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:31.120 up a ton of points, but he drove them down 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:34.080 pretty well in that drive there before he got injured. 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:35.599 So I do think he's going to be able to 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:37.959 put a points even against this very very good defense. 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:41.480 So I agree with you that the total overall total 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:43.920 better than even the Buffalo team total. So I'm with 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:46.040 you on this one as well. I'm going to stick 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:47.760 in my same game and be kind of boring here, 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:51.280 just very quickly, because it says, look, it's not that exciting. Sorry, 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.079 But if I'm talking about the bets that I like 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:55.080 the most, this is one, and that is the Browns 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:57.959 and the Pats under forty five points here. It kind 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:00.440 of goes with just what I was saying before. You've 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:04.560 got two above average defenses. Generally speaking, both teams run 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:06.760 the ball. The Browns run it forty nine percent of 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:09.240 the time, that's third most in the NFL. The Pats 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:11.280 run it forty three percent of the time, that's ninth 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:13.640 most in the NFL. Obviously, when you run the ball, 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:16.440 the clock runs with it. That lends itself just generally 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:19.079 towards an under. Both teams also can stop the run, 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.560 So you know, I don't expect these touchdown drives. I expect, 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:24.199 you know, a couple plays, blah blah blah, going a 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:27.080 little bit running the clock before some punts go. Again, 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:29.160 you've got injuries to running backs on both sides. It's 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:31.600 going to make it even less effective. This just strikes 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:33.480 me to me again as a game that's going to 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:35.960 be close, that both teams are going to just sort 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:38.360 of look to grind it out defensively, you know a 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:40.880 little bit like the Pats and the Panthers last week, 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.000 and it's just a game that look betting unders in 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:45.280 the NFL, then you know, like it's just a terrifying 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:47.240 proposition just generally speaking. 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:47.760 Except last week. 0:11:48.120 --> 0:11:51.080 But for me, I do think that this is just 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:52.800 going to be a game that's going to be kind 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:56.320 of a defensive battle that eventually the Browns are going 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:58.440 to be able to sneak out here with a win. 0:11:58.520 --> 0:11:59.200 That's where I'm going. 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:01.959 But I do think that this strikes me just as 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:04.079 a game that's going to be like twenty one seventeen 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:06.320 somewhere around there and coming at the under. 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:06.920 What do you think? 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:09.040 Yeah, No, I completely agree with you. The Pats have 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:11.760 been a very very streaky team as it pertains the 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:14.880 totals this year. The first four games solidly under and 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:16.760 then I think the market readjusted, and then the next 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:19.080 four the Patriots played all to the over, and then 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.400 last week where I thought we were getting a very 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:24.520 dismal total against the Carolina Panthers. I wanted to work 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:27.440 in market contradiction of having seen that total drop to 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.320 as low as forty and a half or forty one 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:32.920 and maybe taken over in that spot Pats cover twenty four. 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:36.160 But then Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers offense didn't 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:38.520 really hold up their end of the bargain, only scoring six, 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:41.200 So another under for the New England Patriots and Dan, 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:42.760 I think you bring up a great point. If the 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:44.720 Cleveland Browns don't have Nick Chubb and they don't have 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:47.000 the reliability in that ground game, that is what they 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:48.360 want to do. They run the ball at one of 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:51.679 the highest clips in all of the NFL, and if 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:54.720 you force it into Baker Mayfield's hands, although he might 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:57.560 be happy without Odell Beckham Junior right now, I think 0:12:57.559 --> 0:12:59.520 that is the advantage to Bill Belichick being able to 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:02.240 scheme against what might have to be a heavy passing 0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:04.560 attack from the Cleveland brown So I don't think having 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:06.880 the running backs on either side because, like you mentioned earlier, 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:10.720 both Damian Harris and Raman J. Stevenson currently in concussion 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:13.839 protocol in neither practice on Wednesday during that MIDWEK portion, 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.479 I think that kind of takes away what both offenses 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:19.280 do best, and it makes their quarterbacks play out on 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:22.160 an island more, which is a more dangerous proposition for 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:24.920 scoring points in this game. I think if even if 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:27.520 it does go to Cleveland's way, that they are able 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:29.000 to win that football game. I think are able to 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:30.640 grind it out just a little bit more than New England. 0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:32.680 So I think the under is a pretty correlated market 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:33.400 right there, for sure. 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.319 And by the way, Harris and Steininson also didn't practice 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.480 already today, like I just saw a report that came out, 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:40.839 so there's a realistic chance that both are going to 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:43.480 be gone. And I love Brandon Bolden, but I don't 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:45.319 think you really want to rely on him generally as 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:46.160 your every down back. 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.360 All right, your third pick here, sir? What do you have? 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.000 I am going with a PROMP and it is not 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:53.280 out yet a lot of places, because we were recording 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:55.000 this on a Thursday afternoon and it is for the 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:58.040 Sunday night football game. I was hoping prime time, the 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:00.640 Chiefs and the Raiders out in the desert, maybe we'd 0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:03.760 get this early. But I want Derek Carr's passing attempts 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.400 prop Dan The reason I like passing attempts at times 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:08.600 more than passing yards is because all you need for 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.640 them is to throw the football. It can air mail 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:13.440 their receiver by fifteen yards down the field still counts 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:15.600 in our way of getting to and over. And Derek 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:17.680 Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders have been throwing the 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:20.720 football a ton this year. Derek Carr, in seven of 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.080 the eight games Vegas has played so far, has had 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:26.680 at least thirty four passing attempts. Last week against the Giants, 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:29.760 even in a loss, he had forty six passing attempts. 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:33.960 He is averaging thirty nine passing attempts per game. So generally, 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:36.280 in what I have seen throughout the marketplace, even on 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:38.560 the top end of quarterbacks who throw it a ton, 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:41.960 the highest passing attempts prop you'll get thirty three and 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:44.560 a half, thirty four and a half, maybe even a 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:46.840 thirty five and a hook as long as it doesn't 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:48.960 eclipse that number, and I think it will probably be 0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:51.040 somewhere around at thirty three and a half thirty four 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:53.400 and a half. For the primetime affair against Kansas City, 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.400 I would still take in over. As we know, Kansas 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:58.560 City's defense has a multitude of issues, so you could 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.040 attack him on the ground or through the air. But 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:02.760 I think the Raiders are going to look to throw 0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:05.680 the football with Derek Carr forty six again last week 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:08.840 against the New York Giants at least thirty four in 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.240 seven of the eight games the Raiders have played this year. 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:13.720 If it's around that ballpark of thirty four, thirty four 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:15.600 and a hook, I would take the over for Derek 0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:16.960 Carr in primetime on Sunday Night. 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:19.280 What do you think that your line is where you 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:21.640 would say, Okay, this is at a spot where it's 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:22.080 too much. 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.760 This scares me a little bit. I'm gonna avoid it entirely. 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:27.040 Thirty five and a half. I'd get a little bit shaky, 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:28.600 But then I'd look at the line and I'd say, 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:30.320 do I want to do it? Yeah? Okay, yeah, no, 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:31.840 I'm gonna go with it. I'll go thirty five and 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:33.480 a half because Dan, I'm not sure if you can see, 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:35.840 that's how we do this year. That is a retro 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.720 photo of nineteen eighties Arrowhead Stadium. Although I grew up 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:41.840 in Los Angeles, I did not grow up with a 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.440 football team in Los Angeles. So at the tender age 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:46.440 of six years young, I fell in love with a 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:48.160 man by the name of Priest Holmes who taught me 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:50.280 all I needed to know about running the football in 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:52.320 the NFL. So I've been a Chiefs fan for a 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:55.280 very long time. My confidence in the Chiefs and backing 0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:57.880 them as a road favorite and primetime against the Raiders 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:00.120 minus two and a half when they have a two 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:02.320 and seven record against the spread, the second worst mark 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:04.600 in the NFL. I'm not going to do that. And 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:07.360 although Derek Carr and looking at him to find some 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.160 profitability in the PROMP market, if he goes over his 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:13.360 passing attempts, prompt doesn't necessarily mean that I'm hoping the 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.880 Chiefs lose the football games. So that's how I'll have 0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:17.360 some skin in the game for Sunday night. 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:20.080 I'm still reeling from the fact that I think you 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:23.400 said you were six and Priest Mahomes is that Priest 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:25.680 at Home? Sorry not Mahomes, yad there, I am six 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.600