Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is
Speaker 1: time to talk about our best bets for Week ten
Speaker 1: of the NFL season. Here with me to do that
Speaker 1: is Ben Stevens, host of the Morning After over on
Speaker 1: Sports Grid. Find him on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens. Ben,
Speaker 1: thank you for taking time out of your very busy
Speaker 1: schedule to pop on today.
Speaker 2: How you doing I'm doing well, Dan, thank you for
Speaker 2: having me. When Joe Pieceapia comes calling, who is the
Speaker 2: one that introduced us from Fantasy Pros, I often listen,
Speaker 2: and when Joe P asked for something, I like to
Speaker 2: oblige as best I can. So I'm very glad to
Speaker 2: be here and I'm excited to talk to NFL football
Speaker 2: with you.
Speaker 1: Well, your opinion already means less to me than what
Speaker 1: it did before if you are valuing Joey P. But
Speaker 1: I do appreciate Joe's healthier and getting us together. All right,
Speaker 1: let's get into it. But you guys know what the
Speaker 1: show is. We are going to give our three favorite
Speaker 1: bets for this weekend. It can be anything, can be spread,
Speaker 1: can be total, can be moneyline, can be player across,
Speaker 1: whatever we want, and then we will quickly just run
Speaker 1: through the remaining spreads. Just you can get our very
Speaker 1: very brief thoughts on it before we get into it.
Speaker 1: Let me remind you about our latest offer from bet mgm.
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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars at the team you bet on scores
Speaker 1: a touchdown.
Speaker 3: Quick recapable.
Speaker 1: Last week, our guest Andrew Kayley went two and one.
Speaker 1: He hit on the Chargers, laying two to the Eagles,
Speaker 1: the Bears getting six and a half from the Steelers.
Speaker 1: He missed on the Chiefs, team total over twenty seven
Speaker 1: and a half. I also went to one and I
Speaker 1: hit on the Browns getting two and a half from
Speaker 1: the Bengals, the Vikings, and the Ravens going over fifty.
Speaker 1: But I missed on the forty nine Ers laying one
Speaker 1: to the Cardinals. That puts me at sixteen and eleven
Speaker 1: through nine weeks with our best bets. All right, we're
Speaker 1: going to bettingpros dot com for the aggregate lines. You
Speaker 1: guys know all about that there. Let's start with you, Ben,
Speaker 1: what's your top pick of the weekend?
Speaker 2: Dan, I didn't know there was going to be a
Speaker 2: recap portion for next week's podcast looking back at these picks,
Speaker 2: So now I'm a little bit scared to my future
Speaker 2: self into the future audience out there. Hopefully I did
Speaker 2: not lead you astray. So one of my favorite bets
Speaker 2: this weekend is the New Orleans Saints getting points on
Speaker 2: the road against the Tennessee Titans. Yes, I know that
Speaker 2: sounds like a scary proposition. The Saints lost last week
Speaker 2: in an absolute dud to the Atlanta Falcons. The Tennessee
Speaker 2: Titans might be the hottest team in all of football.
Speaker 2: They have won five straight. They have covered in five
Speaker 2: straight the last four even as an underdog. But there
Speaker 2: is an interesting trend going on in the NFL right
Speaker 2: now that I have liked to capitalize on this year,
Speaker 2: and that's when a team puts out a dud, they
Speaker 2: generally bounce back pretty well the following week. And that
Speaker 2: is the case for the New Orleans Saints right now.
Speaker 2: Following a loss this year, New Orleans is two and
Speaker 2: zero against the number, and they are covering by that
Speaker 2: number of thirteen and a half points per game and
Speaker 2: the two times they have responded after a loss, So
Speaker 2: I like where New Orleans is where it currently stands.
Speaker 2: And New Orleans, even being on the road, getting points
Speaker 2: has been pretty good as an underdog so far this
Speaker 2: year three and zero against the spread as an underdog.
Speaker 2: And I mentioned Tennessee has been so great lately four
Speaker 2: straight covers as a dog themselves as a favorite this
Speaker 2: year just two and two against the spread. So I
Speaker 2: think that the good times have been rolling for the
Speaker 2: Tennessee Titans. They head back to the Music City. Hard
Speaker 2: to pick against them, I think, just at this point,
Speaker 2: maybe things slow down. A response last week after losing
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry not saying this is going to be the
Speaker 2: trend for Tennessee moving forward, just in this one spot
Speaker 2: this week that the winning streak has to come to
Speaker 2: an end sometime, Why not against the New Orleans Saints
Speaker 2: getting two and a half points this upcoming Sunday.
Speaker 1: At some point the magic has to end here, right
Speaker 1: for the Titans, Like no, the reason than just mentally
Speaker 1: and emotionally getting up for these giant games and somehow
Speaker 1: pulling out these these incredible victories. At some point, there's
Speaker 1: going to be a letdown. This would have been my pick.
Speaker 1: I told you I like to ask the guests generally
Speaker 1: to send me his fix. This would have been one
Speaker 1: of mine as well, which is good that we're on
Speaker 1: the same side. And again there are some threes out there.
Speaker 1: I'm looking over it's two and a half or threes
Speaker 1: for me. At DraftKings it's two and a half. And
Speaker 1: at Fendal you know, at bet MGM it's three. At
Speaker 1: points Bet it's three. So you can get some threes
Speaker 1: out there. Yeah, Sean Payton, just generally, man, you know,
Speaker 1: against the spread as an underdog generally pretty good. And
Speaker 1: again you're right, the trendses here at teams, especially coming
Speaker 1: off a loss against the spread versus teams coming off
Speaker 1: a win against the spread. It very much favors the underdog.
Speaker 1: So I do like this one as well. It would
Speaker 1: have been on mine, but I cannot take it. Obviously,
Speaker 1: you take it, but I'm backing you, and hopefully next
Speaker 1: week people look back fondly on that one. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go here. You know, I argued with this one with
Speaker 1: Joe when we did the look ahead lines on podcasts
Speaker 1: on Tuesday about what we thought he was on the
Speaker 1: other side.
Speaker 3: I said I'd revisit. I did revisit.
Speaker 1: I held my stance. I'm still sticking with the Browns
Speaker 1: getting two and a half against the Patriots in New England.
Speaker 1: So this is really same as last week where I
Speaker 1: sat the Browns getting the points against the Bengals. I
Speaker 1: still think the Browns are a little bit undervalued here
Speaker 1: in the market, and I think the Patriots might be
Speaker 1: a little overvalued. We started with the Patriots. I mean,
Speaker 1: they're five and four before their wins. Two of them
Speaker 1: have come against the Jets, one of them against the Texans,
Speaker 1: and then one of them against the Panthers with pretty
Speaker 1: injured Sam Darnold. They've got injuries at running back right now.
Speaker 1: Neither Damien Harrison Normandro Stephenson has practiced yet this week,
Speaker 1: including today as they recover from head injury potential concussions.
Speaker 1: Mac Jones really just a game manager like most quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: Not great under pressure. That is what Cleveland does. They
Speaker 1: get a ton of pressure, second highest clip in the
Speaker 1: league at a twenty eight point four percent pressure rate.
Speaker 1: And the Browns, I'm just buying the Browns. I think
Speaker 1: they are coming together here after Odell Beckham Junior is out.
Speaker 1: I think Baker Mayfield plays better without Odell Beckham Junior.
Speaker 1: They used to be a joke. Now it's for real.
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb is probably going to be out for this game.
Speaker 1: That of course is worth mentioning. Not definitely yet. I
Speaker 1: haven't seen anything that says that he officially. You know,
Speaker 1: it's very difficult to get the two, you know, negative
Speaker 1: COVID tests in twenty four hours when you test positive
Speaker 1: on the Tuesday, but it is possible. But either way,
Speaker 1: we saw Dean mis Johnson perform well against the Browns
Speaker 1: and the against the Broncos pardon me, and the Pats
Speaker 1: of a great defense, but they're much better against the
Speaker 1: past six and defensive Dvoa against the past, seventeenth against
Speaker 1: the run. They don't get a ton of pressure, just
Speaker 1: eighteen the pressure rates. So the bottom line is, I
Speaker 1: just I think the Browns are better team. There's six
Speaker 1: overall in Dvoa. The Patriots are thirteenth home field. They're
Speaker 1: one and four at home, so it's not like homefield
Speaker 1: advantage is what he used to be with Brady. So
Speaker 1: I don't know, Man, I think the Browns find a
Speaker 1: way to win this game, so I will certainly take
Speaker 1: them getting two and a half here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Dan, I love that spot honestly for the Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 2: It's something we were monitoring all week on the show.
Speaker 2: I looked at this line on Tuesday. It was at
Speaker 2: two and a half for an opener in favor of
Speaker 2: the Patriots. I saw it come down all the way
Speaker 2: to one. So I thought there was some early sharp
Speaker 2: movement early in the week on the Cleveland Browns, thinking, hey,
Speaker 2: we're getting them as a dog even in this situation.
Speaker 2: And it's not like Juette has been a great home
Speaker 2: field advantage for mac Jones in his rookie season one
Speaker 2: and four straight up, two and three against the spread.
Speaker 2: I kind of like Cleveland in what might be a
Speaker 2: close game, and I think Cleveland getting the points in
Speaker 2: this situation is a really good spot to have the
Speaker 2: Browns this Sunday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and there is a one and a half. You're right,
Speaker 1: it had moved a little bit fandual by the way,
Speaker 1: still at one and a half. I'm just looking at
Speaker 1: the contensus lines at Benning CROs. There's a two out
Speaker 1: there over at bet MGM, but the bast Man Dirty
Speaker 1: Book still at two and a half, including my book
Speaker 1: again DraftKings here from New Hampshire, so the consensus line
Speaker 1: stays at two and a half. I will take it.
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's not getting a three like that's where
Speaker 1: I thought it was. If anything, it's sort of bouncing
Speaker 1: back down there. So yeah, I do think the Browns
Speaker 1: win this game. I'll back them again as the short
Speaker 1: underdog here as I did last week. Number two pick
Speaker 1: ben go for it.
Speaker 2: I am going to a total that features a team
Speaker 2: called the New York Jets. And I know that might
Speaker 2: sound like a crazy proposition and I understand, but follow
Speaker 2: me here. The New York Jets have played five straight
Speaker 2: games too, and over let us not forget Thursday night
Speaker 2: against the Indianapolis Colts when we had seen six straight
Speaker 2: unders hit on Thursday Night Football. The Jets said enough
Speaker 2: of that, and it was a game where they allowed
Speaker 2: forty five points a week following or two weeks following
Speaker 2: allowing fifty four to the New England Patriots, and the
Speaker 2: Colts and the Jets combine for seventy five points on
Speaker 2: Thursday Night Football. So the Jets have played in five
Speaker 2: straight overs and the over under total that I see
Speaker 2: now for the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets
Speaker 2: at MetLife on Sunday is forty eight. It opened it
Speaker 2: forty eight, came down by a hook to forty seven
Speaker 2: and a half as I saw it, now back to
Speaker 2: forty eight. I like it there. Although Buffalo has not
Speaker 2: been quite as good offensively the last couple of weeks
Speaker 2: aka the six they scored against the Jacksonville Jaguars, still
Speaker 2: the fourth best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging just
Speaker 2: below thirty points. I think they want to reinstate the
Speaker 2: fact they are one of the best offensive teams and
Speaker 2: can be that explosive, and it's a good opportunity against
Speaker 2: the New York Jets, because again, although the Jets have
Speaker 2: played five straight overs. A lot of that has come
Speaker 2: from New York allowing their opponent to rack up the
Speaker 2: points fifty four to the pass three weeks ago. Last
Speaker 2: week on Thursday night, they gave up forty five to
Speaker 2: the Indianapolis Colts on a short week, even that overtime
Speaker 2: thrilling win or the upset win rather against the Cincinnati
Speaker 2: Bengals that didn't quite reach overtime, they allowed Sincy to
Speaker 2: score thirty one points. I think the Bills can get
Speaker 2: over thirty pretty easily, and I actually think the Jets
Speaker 2: are going to add a little bit to the equation
Speaker 2: as well. So I was thinking about a Buffalo team total,
Speaker 2: but that spurned me in the past a couple of
Speaker 2: weeks ago against the Miami Dolphins. So I decided just
Speaker 2: game total overall. Knowing the trends for the Jets, and
Speaker 2: although Buffalo has played five of the last eight games
Speaker 2: to the under, including two straight unders, I still think
Speaker 2: that Buffalo and New York can combine to score more
Speaker 2: than forty eight points on Sunday.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it.
Speaker 1: There are forty seven and a halfs out there still,
Speaker 1: As you mentioned, it's back and forth.
Speaker 3: A lot of books.
Speaker 1: Most books at forty eight, some in forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half again including draftings where.
Speaker 3: I bet, But yeah, I like it.
Speaker 1: I do think this is it has to be a
Speaker 1: get right spot here for the Bills offense. Has it
Speaker 1: sputtered a little bit, as you know we were talking
Speaker 1: about over the last couple of weeks, but this is
Speaker 1: a great spot for them. The Jets secondary, which had
Speaker 1: admirably played pretty decently in the first few weeks, has
Speaker 1: now basically shown what it is, which is a bunch
Speaker 1: of no names and can be easily exploited by really
Speaker 1: any of the Bills wide receivers. And I do think
Speaker 1: that the league sort of hasn't yet figured out Mike White,
Speaker 1: who is going to start in this game, and he
Speaker 1: has played better than expected, so I do still think
Speaker 1: we've got another week or two where he's going to
Speaker 1: be I mean, they might have won that game frankly
Speaker 1: had White not getting injured. I mean, they were given
Speaker 1: up a ton of points, but he drove them down
Speaker 1: pretty well in that drive there before he got injured.
Speaker 1: So I do think he's going to be able to
Speaker 1: put a points even against this very very good defense.
Speaker 1: So I agree with you that the total overall total
Speaker 1: better than even the Buffalo team total. So I'm with
Speaker 1: you on this one as well. I'm going to stick
Speaker 1: in my same game and be kind of boring here,
Speaker 1: just very quickly, because it says, look, it's not that exciting. Sorry,
Speaker 1: But if I'm talking about the bets that I like
Speaker 1: the most, this is one, and that is the Browns
Speaker 1: and the Pats under forty five points here. It kind
Speaker 1: of goes with just what I was saying before. You've
Speaker 1: got two above average defenses. Generally speaking, both teams run
Speaker 1: the ball. The Browns run it forty nine percent of
Speaker 1: the time, that's third most in the NFL. The Pats
Speaker 1: run it forty three percent of the time, that's ninth
Speaker 1: most in the NFL. Obviously, when you run the ball,
Speaker 1: the clock runs with it. That lends itself just generally
Speaker 1: towards an under. Both teams also can stop the run,
Speaker 1: So you know, I don't expect these touchdown drives. I expect,
Speaker 1: you know, a couple plays, blah blah blah, going a
Speaker 1: little bit running the clock before some punts go. Again,
Speaker 1: you've got injuries to running backs on both sides. It's
Speaker 1: going to make it even less effective. This just strikes
Speaker 1: me to me again as a game that's going to
Speaker 1: be close, that both teams are going to just sort
Speaker 1: of look to grind it out defensively, you know a
Speaker 1: little bit like the Pats and the Panthers last week,
Speaker 1: and it's just a game that look betting unders in
Speaker 1: the NFL, then you know, like it's just a terrifying
Speaker 1: proposition just generally speaking.
Speaker 3: Except last week.
Speaker 1: But for me, I do think that this is just
Speaker 1: going to be a game that's going to be kind
Speaker 1: of a defensive battle that eventually the Browns are going
Speaker 1: to be able to sneak out here with a win.
Speaker 3: That's where I'm going.
Speaker 1: But I do think that this strikes me just as
Speaker 1: a game that's going to be like twenty one seventeen
Speaker 1: somewhere around there and coming at the under.
Speaker 3: What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I completely agree with you. The Pats have
Speaker 2: been a very very streaky team as it pertains the
Speaker 2: totals this year. The first four games solidly under and
Speaker 2: then I think the market readjusted, and then the next
Speaker 2: four the Patriots played all to the over, and then
Speaker 2: last week where I thought we were getting a very
Speaker 2: dismal total against the Carolina Panthers. I wanted to work
Speaker 2: in market contradiction of having seen that total drop to
Speaker 2: as low as forty and a half or forty one
Speaker 2: and maybe taken over in that spot Pats cover twenty four.
Speaker 2: But then Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers offense didn't
Speaker 2: really hold up their end of the bargain, only scoring six,
Speaker 2: So another under for the New England Patriots and Dan,
Speaker 2: I think you bring up a great point. If the
Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns don't have Nick Chubb and they don't have
Speaker 2: the reliability in that ground game, that is what they
Speaker 2: want to do. They run the ball at one of
Speaker 2: the highest clips in all of the NFL, and if
Speaker 2: you force it into Baker Mayfield's hands, although he might
Speaker 2: be happy without Odell Beckham Junior right now, I think
Speaker 2: that is the advantage to Bill Belichick being able to
Speaker 2: scheme against what might have to be a heavy passing
Speaker 2: attack from the Cleveland brown So I don't think having
Speaker 2: the running backs on either side because, like you mentioned earlier,
Speaker 2: both Damian Harris and Raman J. Stevenson currently in concussion
Speaker 2: protocol in neither practice on Wednesday during that MIDWEK portion,
Speaker 2: I think that kind of takes away what both offenses
Speaker 2: do best, and it makes their quarterbacks play out on
Speaker 2: an island more, which is a more dangerous proposition for
Speaker 2: scoring points in this game. I think if even if
Speaker 2: it does go to Cleveland's way, that they are able
Speaker 2: to win that football game. I think are able to
Speaker 2: grind it out just a little bit more than New England.
Speaker 2: So I think the under is a pretty correlated market
Speaker 2: right there, for sure.
Speaker 1: And by the way, Harris and Steininson also didn't practice
Speaker 1: already today, like I just saw a report that came out,
Speaker 1: so there's a realistic chance that both are going to
Speaker 1: be gone. And I love Brandon Bolden, but I don't
Speaker 1: think you really want to rely on him generally as
Speaker 1: your every down back.
Speaker 3: All right, your third pick here, sir? What do you have?
Speaker 2: I am going with a PROMP and it is not
Speaker 2: out yet a lot of places, because we were recording
Speaker 2: this on a Thursday afternoon and it is for the
Speaker 2: Sunday night football game. I was hoping prime time, the
Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Raiders out in the desert, maybe we'd
Speaker 2: get this early. But I want Derek Carr's passing attempts
Speaker 2: prop Dan The reason I like passing attempts at times
Speaker 2: more than passing yards is because all you need for
Speaker 2: them is to throw the football. It can air mail
Speaker 2: their receiver by fifteen yards down the field still counts
Speaker 2: in our way of getting to and over. And Derek
Speaker 2: Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders have been throwing the
Speaker 2: football a ton this year. Derek Carr, in seven of
Speaker 2: the eight games Vegas has played so far, has had
Speaker 2: at least thirty four passing attempts. Last week against the Giants,
Speaker 2: even in a loss, he had forty six passing attempts.
Speaker 2: He is averaging thirty nine passing attempts per game. So generally,
Speaker 2: in what I have seen throughout the marketplace, even on
Speaker 2: the top end of quarterbacks who throw it a ton,
Speaker 2: the highest passing attempts prop you'll get thirty three and
Speaker 2: a half, thirty four and a half, maybe even a
Speaker 2: thirty five and a hook as long as it doesn't
Speaker 2: eclipse that number, and I think it will probably be
Speaker 2: somewhere around at thirty three and a half thirty four
Speaker 2: and a half. For the primetime affair against Kansas City,
Speaker 2: I would still take in over. As we know, Kansas
Speaker 2: City's defense has a multitude of issues, so you could
Speaker 2: attack him on the ground or through the air. But
Speaker 2: I think the Raiders are going to look to throw
Speaker 2: the football with Derek Carr forty six again last week
Speaker 2: against the New York Giants at least thirty four in
Speaker 2: seven of the eight games the Raiders have played this year.
Speaker 2: If it's around that ballpark of thirty four, thirty four
Speaker 2: and a hook, I would take the over for Derek
Speaker 2: Carr in primetime on Sunday Night.
Speaker 1: What do you think that your line is where you
Speaker 1: would say, Okay, this is at a spot where it's
Speaker 1: too much.
Speaker 3: This scares me a little bit. I'm gonna avoid it entirely.
Speaker 2: Thirty five and a half. I'd get a little bit shaky,
Speaker 2: But then I'd look at the line and I'd say,
Speaker 2: do I want to do it? Yeah? Okay, yeah, no,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with it. I'll go thirty five and
Speaker 2: a half because Dan, I'm not sure if you can see,
Speaker 2: that's how we do this year. That is a retro
Speaker 2: photo of nineteen eighties Arrowhead Stadium. Although I grew up
Speaker 2: in Los Angeles, I did not grow up with a
Speaker 2: football team in Los Angeles. So at the tender age
Speaker 2: of six years young, I fell in love with a
Speaker 2: man by the name of Priest Holmes who taught me
Speaker 2: all I needed to know about running the football in
Speaker 2: the NFL. So I've been a Chiefs fan for a
Speaker 2: very long time. My confidence in the Chiefs and backing
Speaker 2: them as a road favorite and primetime against the Raiders
Speaker 2: minus two and a half when they have a two
Speaker 2: and seven record against the spread, the second worst mark
Speaker 2: in the NFL. I'm not going to do that. And
Speaker 2: although Derek Carr and looking at him to find some
Speaker 2: profitability in the PROMP market, if he goes over his
Speaker 2: passing attempts, prompt doesn't necessarily mean that I'm hoping the
Speaker 2: Chiefs lose the football games. So that's how I'll have
Speaker 2: some skin in the game for Sunday night.
Speaker 1: I'm still reeling from the fact that I think you
Speaker 1: said you were six and Priest Mahomes is that Priest
Speaker 1: at Home? Sorry not Mahomes, yad there, I am six
Speaker 1: years old than Priest Homes. Okay, that's fine. I'm not
Speaker 1: an old man whatsoever. It's totally fine. Okay, let's go
Speaker 1: to my final pick. I'm actually really interested to hear
Speaker 1: what you think about this one Ben, because I looked
Speaker 1: at this one closely. I was kind of on both sides,
Speaker 1: and then it came down to a very simple like
Speaker 1: there's no trends or anything like that. That came back
Speaker 1: to a very simple sort of way I'm thinking about it.
Speaker 1: It's the Seahawks getting three and a half from the
Speaker 1: Packers and Lambell, So I think this game's gonna be close.
Speaker 1: That's personally how I see it. I won't be surprised
Speaker 1: again at the Seahawks one. Two big things here. The
Speaker 1: first is I don't want to I don't think we
Speaker 1: should underestimate. I think people are going to underestimate how
Speaker 1: big deal it is that Rogers can't even get back
Speaker 1: into the facility until Saturday. Now there's again the small
Speaker 1: chance that he's not going to play in this game,
Speaker 1: So you can factor that in if you want. I'm
Speaker 1: assuming he's going to play, but he can't get back
Speaker 1: till Saturday because that's the first day he can be cleared.
Speaker 1: And I know Russell Wilson has been out. Of course,
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson's going to come back for this. But again,
Speaker 1: he's been able to be there, he's been able to practice,
Speaker 1: he's been able to work with the team getting ready
Speaker 1: for this game. In particular, this is ten straight days
Speaker 1: right now where the Packers offense has had to practice
Speaker 1: with Jordan Love. That is a big deal to me.
Speaker 1: And we've also seen quarterbacks, by the way, struggle a
Speaker 1: little bit when they come back after testing positive from COVID.
Speaker 3: We saw it last year.
Speaker 1: It's possible that you know, Rogers isn't at one hundred
Speaker 1: percent physically just after testing positive.
Speaker 3: So there's that. The second is that these.
Speaker 1: Teams are actually more evenly matched, and I think the
Speaker 1: public is going to give him credit for Seattle has
Speaker 1: actually rated better overall in DVA twelfth in DVA, the
Speaker 1: Packers are fifteenth. This is a monstrous game for the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: They're on the outskirt to the playoff race. They obviously
Speaker 1: fell down a little bit with Geno Smith. They basically
Speaker 1: have to win. The Packers obviously want the number one seed,
Speaker 1: but the division is basically locked up there three and
Speaker 1: a half games ahead. This strikes me as a very
Speaker 1: very close game. I would be shocked if the Packers
Speaker 1: just run with it. I'd be shocked if the Packers
Speaker 1: win this by touchdown or ten points or anything like that.
Speaker 1: I think it's a close game, strikes me as a
Speaker 1: field goal game, So I'm going to take the hook
Speaker 1: here with the Seahawks.
Speaker 3: But I'm very interested to hear what you have to
Speaker 3: say about this.
Speaker 2: Well, Dan, I think it's going to be very interesting
Speaker 2: to monitor this line movement by about Saturday afternoon, Saturday evening,
Speaker 2: when we get some kind of final confirmation on Aaron Rodgers,
Speaker 2: if he's even able to get out of the COVID
Speaker 2: nineteen protocol in time to play this football game, because
Speaker 2: if he is not, this is going to close closer
Speaker 2: to a pick up, maybe one and a half, still
Speaker 2: in green Bay's favor, so we could be getting the
Speaker 2: best of the number. If Aaron Rodgers is back, I
Speaker 2: think it could work more in green Bay's favor, and
Speaker 2: still I would probably lean with Seattle maybe getting four
Speaker 2: and a half or five points, So I don't mind
Speaker 2: where it is right now. And again, I think you
Speaker 2: have the hook in your advantage past that field goal,
Speaker 2: because like you, this is not going to be a
Speaker 2: blowout on either side. Even if Aaron Rodgers is back,
Speaker 2: green Bay could find a way to win. But if
Speaker 2: it's twenty four to twenty one, I would not be
Speaker 2: shocked by any means, and I think adding Russell Wilson back,
Speaker 2: we know what Russ can do. We know what he
Speaker 2: was doing early on this year. Off to a great
Speaker 2: start for the Seahawks. He's seventy two percent completion percentage
Speaker 2: obviously makes that offense go in a way that even
Speaker 2: Geno Smith cannot but credit to Gino Smith because in
Speaker 2: the three games that he started, three and zero against
Speaker 2: the spread for the Seattle Seahawks. So they are three
Speaker 2: and five straight up. But they are a very interesting
Speaker 2: team to me, Dan for how they look moving forward
Speaker 2: in the NFC postseason picture, because if you look at
Speaker 2: any make playoff odds right now the NFC, six of
Speaker 2: the seven spots that we will have for this postseason
Speaker 2: virtually wrapped up based on the odds. You have the Rams,
Speaker 2: who are trailing in the NFC West. You have the
Speaker 2: New Orleans Saints who are trailing in the NFC South,
Speaker 2: but both heavily favored to earn a postseason perth. That
Speaker 2: seventh spot, though, is wide open right now. In the
Speaker 2: NFC wildcard race. You could look at the Vikings. I
Speaker 2: have no comp midence in Minnesota. I think although Seattle
Speaker 2: is coming from behind. Having Russell Wilson back, I think
Speaker 2: the Seahawks become a very very interesting team, and the
Speaker 2: Niners have left everything open in the NFC West, where
Speaker 2: I would look at the Seahawks just a peg behind
Speaker 2: the Rams and the Cardinals. So I think this is
Speaker 2: a great spot for Seattle to get this momentum building
Speaker 2: toward the postseason. I think the Seattle Seahawks are will
Speaker 2: be fascinating here in the second half of the year.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think the Falcons may have the seventh spot right
Speaker 1: now in the NFC. And that's just not a team, right,
Speaker 1: I know, it's nuts. That's not a team that you
Speaker 1: look at is going to run that spot. Yeah, that's open.
Speaker 1: They need this right now. And there is the possibility,
Speaker 1: of course that Wilson, because he's been out for several weeks,
Speaker 1: he's going to be rusty himself as well, But at
Speaker 1: least he has been back and he's been able to
Speaker 1: practice in game plan for this. And you make the
Speaker 1: right point, which is correct, which is if you like
Speaker 1: the Seahawks like you do, you might as well bet
Speaker 1: it now because if Rogers obviously is not cleared five points,
Speaker 1: the other way maybe, like I mean that right, it's
Speaker 1: something you know we saw with Jordan Love, So obviously
Speaker 1: you'll get the best number. But if Rogers is cleared
Speaker 1: and he is going to play, maybe it moves maybe
Speaker 1: a point or something in the Packers. So as long
Speaker 1: as you're over three, but it's not like you're getting
Speaker 1: a seven or anything like that, you might as well better.
Speaker 3: Now, all right, very very good.
Speaker 1: Okay, So that is gonna be our six picks for
Speaker 1: this weekend.
Speaker 3: Let me very quickly recap it.
Speaker 1: You are taking these Saints getting two and a half
Speaker 1: from the Titans, which I also like, the Bills and
Speaker 1: the Jets over forty eight points and Derek Carr overpassed
Speaker 1: attempts and what did we say?
Speaker 3: The top number is.
Speaker 1: Anything above as long as it does it get to
Speaker 1: what thirty five and a half.
Speaker 2: As long as it's not over thirty five and a half,
Speaker 2: Thirty five and a half would be the absolute ceiling,
Speaker 2: and I'd still probably be like, all right, I'm in basically.
Speaker 1: Whatever it is you can take, but certainly if it's
Speaker 1: as long as it's under thirty five and a half,
Speaker 1: you want the over there For me, I'm taking the
Speaker 1: Browns getting two and a half from the Patriots and
Speaker 1: the total in that game under forty five. And I'm
Speaker 1: also taking the Seahawks getting three and a half from
Speaker 1: the Packers. All right, let's go lightning speed here very quickly.
Speaker 1: Your ten cent thoughts on the remaining spreads. The Lions
Speaker 1: are visiting the Steelers. The Steelers are laying eight and
Speaker 1: a half, no pass, just a total path I had
Speaker 1: to If I had to, I probably would have to
Speaker 1: take the lines. I'm not backing Mike Tomlin at home
Speaker 1: as a big favorite any game that they should destroy
Speaker 1: because they'll probably lose out right. How about the spreading
Speaker 1: the Bills and the Jets. Actually, this has come down here.
Speaker 1: It started early in the weekend. I think it might
Speaker 1: have been fourteen and a half per half. I first,
Speaker 1: I got it, it's twelve right now with the consensus line,
Speaker 1: there are some thirteens out there.
Speaker 3: What do you think about it? At twelve?
Speaker 2: Are we about to get our second Mike White game
Speaker 2: in three weeks? Maybe so, But I think the market
Speaker 2: makes sense. And the Bills haven't covered in three straight,
Speaker 2: the last two by nearly a two touchdown favorite, I
Speaker 2: think I'm gonna lean with the Jets. I mean, the
Speaker 2: Bills could still win by double digits, but that's how
Speaker 2: I would lean in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you saw just how close the Jets
Speaker 1: were with Johnson and quarterback to backdoor covering that game
Speaker 1: last week with twelve points.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 1: I'd probably lean that way with Mike White. The Cowboys
Speaker 1: are home against the Falcons, laying nine at the consensus here,
Speaker 1: I would.
Speaker 2: Like the under of this game. It doesn't make a
Speaker 2: lot of sense to me. It's at fifty five. It's
Speaker 2: the highest total of the weekend. I know Dallas has
Speaker 2: a propensity to play over. Atlanta's defense has been a
Speaker 2: little bit better this year, and I think you're getting
Speaker 2: an inflated number on a Dallas team that still needs
Speaker 2: to figure some things out. I would go total first.
Speaker 2: If I'm looking at the spread. I actually think Dallas
Speaker 2: has an opportunity to get right here, and I think
Speaker 2: they hammer the Falcons.
Speaker 3: I do too.
Speaker 1: It was a game actually I considered whether or not
Speaker 1: I wanted to take because I do think that this
Speaker 1: is the bounce back spot right here for the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Classic Bilos sell high. With the Falcons beating the Saints
Speaker 1: last week, I think the Cowboys might absolutely run with
Speaker 1: this game. But again, non official pick Colts laying ten
Speaker 1: and a half at home against the Jaguars.
Speaker 2: Dan, I don't know if you know this about me.
Speaker 2: I'm a faderban Meyer guy at all costs, so I
Speaker 2: will never pick the Jacksonville Jaguars, even against the spread.
Speaker 2: We are going to take the Indianapolis Colts, who has
Speaker 2: a ten and a half point favorite twice already this year,
Speaker 2: have covered both of those numbers.
Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with you, and I think you joined
Speaker 1: the ninety nine percent of the population in fading Urban Meyer.
Speaker 1: The Washington football team at home with the Bucks. Washington's
Speaker 1: getting nine and a half points.
Speaker 2: What do you think a very interesting opposing trends here?
Speaker 2: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have yet to win against the
Speaker 2: spread as a row team this year, zero to four
Speaker 2: against the number washingt football team, the worst record against
Speaker 2: the spread in all of the NFL, just one in seven.
Speaker 2: Something's got to give. I think it's the Bucks covering
Speaker 2: by nine and a half.
Speaker 1: I think Washington might be able to keep this one close.
Speaker 1: I have no idea I'll staying away from it entirely, obviously.
Speaker 1: Chris Godwin has mispracticed this week. There's not gonna be Kronk.
Speaker 1: There's probably not gonna be Antonio Brown.
Speaker 3: I don't know, man.
Speaker 1: It just strikes me as something where Washington might be
Speaker 1: able to keep this again. I'd love it at ten,
Speaker 1: but it's not going to get there. How About we
Speaker 1: already talked about that one. How about the Chargers laying
Speaker 1: three at home to the Vikings.
Speaker 2: I have no trust in the Minnesota Vikings. I like
Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Chargers. They have played in two straight
Speaker 2: three point games. I loved it at two and a half.
Speaker 2: Now it's up to three, but I'd still take the
Speaker 2: Chargers in the points.
Speaker 1: I'm just running away from it entirely. I don't want
Speaker 1: to go anywhere near it. How About the Cardinals lank
Speaker 1: ten and a half to the Panthers. I assume, by
Speaker 1: the way, it's still gona be PJ Walker, right, There's
Speaker 1: no way Cam is ready to go yet in this one, Okay,
Speaker 1: Cardinals like ten and a half.
Speaker 2: If it was, that'd be crazy because he had not
Speaker 2: played under Matt rules, so that would be absolutely nuts.
Speaker 2: If he was ready with the offensive scheme. I kind
Speaker 2: of want to see PJ Walker. I think it's the
Speaker 2: XFL brain of me that thinks there's some hope left
Speaker 2: in the way that quarterbacking can be played in the NFL.
Speaker 2: But no, if I was looking at this, the Cardinals
Speaker 2: have the best cover margin in the NFL at over
Speaker 2: ten points. Maybe they can cover ten and a half.
Speaker 1: How about the Broncos at home lank two and a
Speaker 1: half to the Eagles. This was at three earlier in
Speaker 1: the week when we looked at it, so it's moved
Speaker 1: a little bit here.
Speaker 2: Two and a half just disgusting football. I don't really
Speaker 2: want any part of the Eagles and Broncos. I thought
Speaker 2: about putting this in our rundown for our show tomorrow
Speaker 2: on our Football Friday, and I was like, nobody cares
Speaker 2: about this. I'm staying away from it.
Speaker 3: That is fair. We talked about it.
Speaker 1: You don't want any part right of the Chiefs visiting
Speaker 1: the Raiders and laying two and a half points on
Speaker 1: either side of it.
Speaker 2: I mean the idea, as my father taught me from
Speaker 2: a young age, hometown dog in a primetime game. I'm
Speaker 2: not sure the metrics backed that up so much. I'm
Speaker 2: still a believer, and maybe that is the fan in
Speaker 2: me of the Kansas City Chiefs that only two and
Speaker 2: a half against this Raiders team like something somehow, some way,
Speaker 2: But no, I can't really touch that number.
Speaker 3: That's the thing.
Speaker 1: I'm like, I want it to be the chief and
Speaker 1: i feel like it should be the Chiefs, and I've
Speaker 1: got absolutely no way to justify it being the chief
Speaker 1: So I'm staying away. Last one Monday Night football, the
Speaker 1: Rams are visiting the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3: Forty nine Ers are getting four points here.
Speaker 2: Completely agree with the market movement in the Rams favor
Speaker 2: early on for this Monday night game. I am not
Speaker 2: pleased with what I'm seeing out of the San Francisco
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers, who now have the longest odds to
Speaker 2: win the NFC West after being the preseason favorites. I
Speaker 2: think the Rams, who just got owned by the Titans
Speaker 2: in their own home stadium, now go on the road
Speaker 2: up north to northern California. In Santa Clara, I think
Speaker 2: the Rams can cover that.
Speaker 3: Ben.
Speaker 1: It was great having you on. I'm glad we were
Speaker 1: finally able to do it. I guess thank you to
Speaker 1: Joe for making sure that this could happen. Mind everybody
Speaker 1: where they can check you out and your work.
Speaker 2: At Ben Scott Stevens on Twitter, and then, as Dan
Speaker 2: mentioned at the start of the show, I host The
Speaker 2: Morning After on sports Grid every weekday morning, nine am
Speaker 2: to noon Eastern, where we do what we did here,
Speaker 2: try to educate you on how to become a better
Speaker 2: sports better having a little bit of fun along the
Speaker 2: way in an engaging, in informative format. So that's at
Speaker 2: sports Creed at Serious XM channel one to fifty nine,
Speaker 2: on sports Grid Radio all across the place. There's people
Speaker 2: Dan that reach out to me from places like, Hey,
Speaker 2: I'm watching you in Glenwood, Iowa. I'm like, I didn't
Speaker 2: even know we were affiliated out there, but sounds great.
Speaker 2: So it's places I don't even know. But we do
Speaker 2: have a YouTube TV channel now, so maybe that's the
Speaker 2: easiest format.
Speaker 1: Awesome, he's been Stevens. I'm Dan Harris. You can find
Speaker 1: us again on Monday with our early reaction to the
Speaker 1: week eleven lines. Enjoy your weekend of football, everybody. I'll
Speaker 1: talk to you next week.