Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Ley.
Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Let's
Speaker 1: kick off the conversation this morning with Michael Shall, market
Speaker 1: Field Asset Management CEO and portfolio manager. Good morning to Michael.
Speaker 1: Better news on a vaccine front over the last month
Speaker 1: looking at one. Is there anything between now and year
Speaker 1: end that could derail the optimism around a better outlook? Um,
Speaker 1: I don't think so, if I I hope not. You know,
Speaker 1: Having said that, I will say that markets are quite
Speaker 1: stretched at the end of November. Um, you know, particularly
Speaker 1: you know the cyclical trade, which which we've favored for
Speaker 1: several months. Um, you know, it's had it's had a
Speaker 1: hell of a move. Um. Yeah, I've seen plenty of
Speaker 1: the members which have a tricky couple of weeks in
Speaker 1: the middle of them, and you know that wouldn't be
Speaker 1: a surprise. But you know, I think generally, Um, you
Speaker 1: know what I was personal, as we doable goods economy
Speaker 1: is really following on all cylinders at this point in time.
Speaker 1: I think a vaccine would be helpful to that, but
Speaker 1: I don't even think it's necessary. We've had such a
Speaker 1: massive month through November for international equities, the best month
Speaker 1: ever on a stock six underd I think, the best
Speaker 1: month on an ECO for in Japan since the middle
Speaker 1: of the nineteen nineties. This came from JP Morgan this morning.
Speaker 1: We upgrade Eurozone to overweight, reduce the United States to neutral.
Speaker 1: Relative earnings trends have favored US over Europe for a
Speaker 1: while now, but a potential bass in relative earnings of
Speaker 1: the Eurozone could be on the cards. Michael, that's just
Speaker 1: an echo, a flavor of what we've heard so much
Speaker 1: over the last several weeks around the international stories. It's
Speaker 1: something you buy into. Two Well, you know, I think
Speaker 1: analysis does unfortunately often follow performance, So I think people
Speaker 1: under tremendous persons have changed their views. But you know,
Speaker 1: the point I made a couple of months ago was
Speaker 1: literally so much market cap trapped in the stuff that
Speaker 1: had been working, US technology as a sort of shorthand
Speaker 1: to that, but that any kind of reallocation away from
Speaker 1: that towards almost anything else is going to have an
Speaker 1: explosive impact. You know, we we would favor Japan over
Speaker 1: the ewer zone. You know, I like what's in the
Speaker 1: nick A. I like that part of the world in
Speaker 1: you know, in general. But I you know, but I
Speaker 1: think that that you know, you've had four or five
Speaker 1: years of tremendous out performance by by U S tech
Speaker 1: against global equities. UM, and I think you've unlocked a
Speaker 1: little bit of a rebound now. You know. The tricky
Speaker 1: thing going forward is that if this is a true
Speaker 1: turning point, and the sort of turning point you look
Speaker 1: back in five years time and say, wow, that really
Speaker 1: was something that normally implies a problem in the stuff
Speaker 1: that had been working. UM. You know, certainly that was
Speaker 1: the case at the end of the late nineties, certainly
Speaker 1: the case when he M you know, finished out performing
Speaker 1: in say two thousand and eleven. And so I think
Speaker 1: the tricky thing not not obviously for December twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: but maybe one is you know, if this out performance continues,
Speaker 1: does that involve US tech or the popular portions of
Speaker 1: the US equity market actually going down. There's also a
Speaker 1: question of whether the pandemic still matters, does it? It
Speaker 1: depends what you are that matters tremendously. I think for
Speaker 1: for urban service economies, it doesn't matter a great deal. Um.
Speaker 1: It may even be having a sort of strange beneficial
Speaker 1: effect um for the doable goods economy. Uh. And again
Speaker 1: I think, you know, a slightly different question would be,
Speaker 1: if we do have a successful vaccine and we sort
Speaker 1: of arrived in the summer of one in a in
Speaker 1: a better place medically and socially, thankfully, you know, does
Speaker 1: that come at the expense of the doable goods economy
Speaker 1: or have we just really, you know, have we just
Speaker 1: ignited a self self perpetuating cycle in that part of
Speaker 1: the global economy. At what point do you take a
Speaker 1: message from the bond market that really hasn't participated in
Speaker 1: the rally, the idea the treasury yields have remained so
Speaker 1: suppressed despite the optimism that we've seen everywhere else. You know,
Speaker 1: I think I take a partial message from that, you know,
Speaker 1: I think I do think sped guidance has something to play,
Speaker 1: and I do also think that the fixed income is
Speaker 1: something of a relative value play. But but it's difficult
Speaker 1: for US yields to be much higher than they are
Speaker 1: given where global yields are. But you know, I do
Speaker 1: think that if, if, if these sort of cyclical forces
Speaker 1: do continue, you will have higher U S treasury yields
Speaker 1: to the US tenure will find its way tot once
Speaker 1: fifty or one seventy five at some point next year,
Speaker 1: which you know would hardly be a shocking level. Historically
Speaker 1: wicked dollar started to come through Euro dollar right now.
Speaker 1: Six The line of the stand for so many of
Speaker 1: you at home, I know is one twenty, the high
Speaker 1: after yearn that was the start of September. We know
Speaker 1: that's the line of the stand for the e CP
Speaker 1: because whenever we got to euro dollar one twenty, Mr
Speaker 1: Philip Lane came out and battled it back down again.
Speaker 1: Michael Schaller, let's leave it there, shall we. Just a
Speaker 1: word on the U S order if you can. The
Speaker 1: calls are lining up. It's consensus for you for twenty
Speaker 1: one a week a dollar. Is that the side of
Speaker 1: the trade you're onto? Yeah, I think I think we
Speaker 1: cow against the sixthly sensitive currencies, So I think some
Speaker 1: of the e m courncies can gain a lot against.
Speaker 1: Michael Show of market Field, great to catch how your
Speaker 1: Michael Michael Scharltt Marketfield asked management the CEO and portfolio
Speaker 1: manager listen. So you Ki joined us NOW Banks for
Speaker 1: America Security Senior Hardline to reach out analysts. It's always
Speaker 1: great to get you on the show. Are we shopping
Speaker 1: less or just shopping somewhere else? Liz Well, I think
Speaker 1: where people are shopping has certainly changed. There's been this
Speaker 1: shift to online, and I think some of that has
Speaker 1: been intentional on the part of the retailers. What we've
Speaker 1: seen this holiday season especially is the early start to
Speaker 1: promotional activity, which began, you know, Black Friday sales began.
Speaker 1: It's early, it's November one for a lot of retailers,
Speaker 1: and and the shift has been to promote these you know,
Speaker 1: the online channels, partly for health and safety reasons, to
Speaker 1: you know, to avoid overcrowding in the stores, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: but also because the retailers have been seeing demand moving
Speaker 1: that direction and so they're you know, they're not trying
Speaker 1: to fight against it. So what we've seen a lot
Speaker 1: of this holiday season, in particular, which was relatively new,
Speaker 1: was the move towards um promoting curbside pickup and buy
Speaker 1: online pickup in store, which you know, which which has
Speaker 1: is beneficial to the consumer because they get the products
Speaker 1: sooner than they would if they went for the ship
Speaker 1: to home option. And it's beneficial for the retailer because
Speaker 1: they avoid having to spend the cost of shipping that
Speaker 1: product to the consumer. So it's kind of it's a
Speaker 1: win win situation. But you know, in general, we have
Speaker 1: we've seen a shift in spending also, I mean this
Speaker 1: is broader, longer term, which has been towards home categories,
Speaker 1: away from things like you know, travel and restaurants obviously
Speaker 1: an entertainment and so those dollars have been shifted into
Speaker 1: the home and so we we think that this holiday
Speaker 1: season is really going to be about uh, you know
Speaker 1: these home categories, comfort, yeah, end and and all of that.
Speaker 1: At least that takes us to home Depot, which has
Speaker 1: had a fantastic year through for many people. The vaccine
Speaker 1: is kryptonite for big tech. I wonder what it means
Speaker 1: for the shopping trends that have really been reinforced through
Speaker 1: much of looking ahead to twenty one. What are your
Speaker 1: thoughts on that at the moment? Is sure? I mean
Speaker 1: I think that for for home improvement retailers like like
Speaker 1: home Deboat lows, uh, there has been a big benefit
Speaker 1: this year from people staying at home and investing in
Speaker 1: their homes, making those upgrades, you know, putting doing the
Speaker 1: projects that they had put off for a while. But
Speaker 1: you know, as we look beyond this year and into
Speaker 1: one even post vaccine, you know, one of the big
Speaker 1: factors that we think is going to be a driver
Speaker 1: for next year is the fact that people have moved
Speaker 1: from urban markets into suburban markets. Housing metrics are you know,
Speaker 1: just on fire. And so what that means is there's
Speaker 1: this whole new slew of homeowners that become consumers and
Speaker 1: become home improvement customers for life essentially, So you know,
Speaker 1: for the next few years, that will continue to be
Speaker 1: a benefit. So even though these retailers are up against
Speaker 1: this difficult comparison in one, there are longer term tail
Speaker 1: winds that are still at play here, which are really
Speaker 1: those you know, those housing metrics that continue to trend positively.
Speaker 1: I do have to wonder, though, Liz, a lot of
Speaker 1: people have been home a lot. They can't go on vacation,
Speaker 1: so they're spending their money on the place where they stay.
Speaker 1: When they can go on vacation, when they can leave
Speaker 1: their homes, they will everyone who I've talked to, especially
Speaker 1: if they have small kids, wants to get out. So,
Speaker 1: in other words, how does that challenge the thesis that
Speaker 1: you just presented. Sure, yeah, I mean I think that
Speaker 1: there there will be eventually a return or maybe some
Speaker 1: you know, there's pent up demand for you know, for
Speaker 1: getting out of the house, and so at some point
Speaker 1: people will go back to travel. I think it will
Speaker 1: take time, though, because comfort won't be you know, immediate
Speaker 1: once there's a vaccine. It's going to take uh, you know,
Speaker 1: several months or quarters until people really feel comfortable traveling
Speaker 1: as they normally would. So for you know, for at
Speaker 1: least the next probably the majority of one, there's still
Speaker 1: gonna be this uh you know, this continued time spent
Speaker 1: in the home and focus on the home. But you know,
Speaker 1: after that, yeah, there there is probably going to be
Speaker 1: some period of payback or certainly a deceleration. You know.
Speaker 1: The speed of that deceleration will really be contingent upon
Speaker 1: the speed at which vaccines are distributed widely. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: so I think that there is uh, there's there's risk
Speaker 1: that growth will decelerate. I don't think it's possible for
Speaker 1: improvement spending to continue at this plus thirty percent, you're
Speaker 1: over your growth base. But I also don't think that
Speaker 1: that's what's priced into the stocks. I mean, right now,
Speaker 1: these stocks are trading at pretty modest multiples relative to
Speaker 1: their historical rates, So they're not trading at companies that
Speaker 1: will continue to to put up percent growth. You're year.
Speaker 1: Let's before we let you go. We talked a lot
Speaker 1: about companies retail. Let's pushing people to go to e commas.
Speaker 1: Can you walk me through where the bed, Bath and
Speaker 1: beyond have actually sorted out things in store for when
Speaker 1: things finally reopened properly get a better experience. It's overwhelming
Speaker 1: in there, there's too much stuff. They're doing something about it.
Speaker 1: I agree, yeah, And so they're they're new. The new
Speaker 1: CEO or relatively new CEO is the chief merchant a target,
Speaker 1: and so you know, the experience that he brings to
Speaker 1: that role is certainly what the company needed. And I
Speaker 1: think you're right, like the Florida ceiling stuff your pillows
Speaker 1: that you can't even reach up on the highest possible shelves,
Speaker 1: it's overwhelming, all right. So I think that they're changing
Speaker 1: the merchandizing in a pretty big way. And that's going
Speaker 1: to be a really big part of the turnaround story.
Speaker 1: There Lets it's great to catch up. Good to see
Speaker 1: you listen Oki there a Bank for America Securities makes
Speaker 1: I said that joining us now is John Riding Bring Capital,
Speaker 1: Chief Economic Advisor. John, great to get you back on
Speaker 1: the program sir as always good friend of Bloomberg Surveillance
Speaker 1: over the years. John, the near term risk, I want
Speaker 1: to start. They're a lot of people factor in this
Speaker 1: brighter forward outlook and the emphasizing the near term substantially
Speaker 1: so over the last couple of weeks, John, how much
Speaker 1: gap damage can we do to the outlook over the
Speaker 1: next couple of months, Well, we could do quite a
Speaker 1: bit of damage. The key thing here is that the
Speaker 1: income support for the ten million people are so who
Speaker 1: have lost their jobs since February aventually effectively evaporates mid
Speaker 1: to late December. It's either six months plus the thirteen
Speaker 1: weeks from when they lost their job, or at the
Speaker 1: end of the year, the thirteen week extension program under
Speaker 1: the Cares Act disappears. And that is about thirty billion
Speaker 1: dollars a month of household income and from the macro
Speaker 1: economy perspective, that's not a huge number because of the
Speaker 1: accumulated savings that has gone on through the pandemic period,
Speaker 1: the excess savings, which totals about one point five trillion,
Speaker 1: but those savings are not much of those savings are
Speaker 1: going to be in those distressed households. So those households
Speaker 1: are going to have to cut back on spending. They're
Speaker 1: going to be distressed, and and that is something that
Speaker 1: that could hit demand, not to think to the point
Speaker 1: where we see a negative growth print um, but could
Speaker 1: certainly yes slow growth considerably, which right now we think
Speaker 1: for the fourth quarter at least is looking about six
Speaker 1: real GDP growth. Let me also say, and what's very
Speaker 1: important is when we get a virus and we can
Speaker 1: get the four million people is so in the leisure, hospitality,
Speaker 1: travel industry who really can't return to work, and especially
Speaker 1: with the upswinging the virus infections that we sold through
Speaker 1: in November, those people are going to have to need
Speaker 1: businesses to go back to. So that's another area. How
Speaker 1: much damage can we have to the actual employers, to
Speaker 1: the small businesses that employ many of those people between
Speaker 1: now and then. So there is real hope over the
Speaker 1: horizon six months down road with the vaccines, but the
Speaker 1: next few months are going to be I think quite difficult. John.
Speaker 1: I'm so pleased you started with the disparity beneath the
Speaker 1: aggregate numbers, because the aggregate numbers get talked about way
Speaker 1: too much. A high savings rate. The savings are exactly
Speaker 1: where we don't want them to be there in the
Speaker 1: hands of the people with a lower marginal propensity to spend,
Speaker 1: and the people without the savings, and the people where
Speaker 1: we'd like to see the money as things open up,
Speaker 1: because they're likely the ones to go out there and
Speaker 1: spend it immediately. John. Going forward from here, I think
Speaker 1: if there's any complacency, it's because people have been experienced,
Speaker 1: been conditioned by the experience of the last few months
Speaker 1: where we snap back so quickly, and the recovery in
Speaker 1: America was much much better, bigger and better than I expected,
Speaker 1: and many others to John. And it's a belief that
Speaker 1: if we go into a small down term will come
Speaker 1: out of it the other side just as fast. Is
Speaker 1: there any reasons to believe that wouldn't happen, John, Well,
Speaker 1: as I said, it really matters about either business is
Speaker 1: going to be there to re employ people. So we
Speaker 1: do have a very difficult period markets where we need
Speaker 1: to work things out. For example, commercial rents are what's
Speaker 1: going to happen. There was a report out from the
Speaker 1: New York City Hospitality Alliance a few weeks ago that
Speaker 1: said eight percent of renters commercial renters in New York
Speaker 1: City couldn't make full or whole payment of the rent
Speaker 1: or partial payment of the rent in October. So what's
Speaker 1: going to happen to those businesses is the accumulated rent
Speaker 1: bird and going to be a major obstacle for them reopening.
Speaker 1: Are they're going to throw in the towels sadly when
Speaker 1: the end is very much in sight. We don't know,
Speaker 1: but that's important. It's not just about demand. It's about
Speaker 1: businesses to employ those ten million people who will be
Speaker 1: ready and able to go back to work once the
Speaker 1: vaccine is available. John, As you talk, I think about
Speaker 1: what Katherine Man of City Group was saying last week,
Speaker 1: which is the economy that emerges from COVID will look
Speaker 1: very different, in part because the biggest companies have had
Speaker 1: the best chance of survival. Well, the smaller ones have
Speaker 1: gone out of business at a record pace, And I
Speaker 1: do wonder what is the long term structural economic damage
Speaker 1: of this entire swath of smaller companies that have gotten
Speaker 1: wiped out, given the fact that they account for so
Speaker 1: much of the hiring in the United States and elsewhere.
Speaker 1: But that's an absolutely great point least, because if you
Speaker 1: look at the US labor market, about half of people
Speaker 1: employed work for big businesses and the other half work
Speaker 1: for small businesses. So we can't have enough expansion in
Speaker 1: big business activity to employ those people. Small businesses really
Speaker 1: are a great part of the entrepreneurial side of the
Speaker 1: US economy, and I have no doubt that two, three
Speaker 1: or four years down the road, whatever the damage has
Speaker 1: done over the next few months, entrepreneurial America will come
Speaker 1: back and will come back strongly. But that's a very
Speaker 1: long time frame for someone who has lost their job
Speaker 1: and doesn't have that prospect of getting back to immediate employment.
Speaker 1: So yes, we do have a to use the rather
Speaker 1: overworked term of ideas from Charles Dickens, a tale of
Speaker 1: two economies. We do have the large, big tech, large
Speaker 1: cap economy that's adjusted well through this in terms of
Speaker 1: e commerce and some of the big names of gain business.
Speaker 1: And then on the other hand, you've got the small businesses,
Speaker 1: especially in restaurants, host in the hospitality industry, and some
Speaker 1: of the larger business in that area, like airlines, which
Speaker 1: are really really struggling. And I think that that's got
Speaker 1: to be a major priority. If we don't get something
Speaker 1: done in this lame duck session, and it's a very
Speaker 1: short lame duck session with an awful lot to do
Speaker 1: in it haven't been we would have a government shutdown
Speaker 1: in the midst of all of this. If we don't
Speaker 1: get that done. That has to be the numble one
Speaker 1: focused alongside virus vaccine distribution for the incoming administration. Hi, John,
Speaker 1: great to give you on the program. Stay well, I
Speaker 1: send my best of the family. Won't you jump riding
Speaker 1: the up bring capital? Thank you John, joining us down.
Speaker 1: We really want to take a look at this vaccine distribution,
Speaker 1: the moderna news really accelerating that timeframe, Operation Warp Speed
Speaker 1: taking a little bit more shape. Dr Howard Foreman joining
Speaker 1: Yale University, Professor of Public Health and Economics and Radiology.
Speaker 1: What else. Dr Foreman, thank you so much for being
Speaker 1: with us. I want to start with this Operation Warp
Speaker 1: Speed and where we are based on the application that
Speaker 1: we're expecting from moderna based on what the FDA has signaled.
Speaker 1: When do you think we will start to get a
Speaker 1: trickle turn into a flood where we get a real
Speaker 1: critical mass of people in the United States being inoculated. Look,
Speaker 1: I'm one of the more optimistic people who believe that
Speaker 1: we're going to see tens of millions of doses starting
Speaker 1: to be used in January. February will obviously see something
Speaker 1: at the end of this month, probably at least, you know,
Speaker 1: several million, But we're gonna see tens of millions starting
Speaker 1: off in January. Uh, And it is not inconceivable that
Speaker 1: will have more doses than demand by the time we
Speaker 1: get this summer, and that would be a sort of
Speaker 1: good thing, But then we have to work on the
Speaker 1: whole issue of vaccine hesitancy. All right, let's let's tease
Speaker 1: out some of this aside from the demand side, when
Speaker 1: you talk about the supply coming on. Joshua Sharfstein was
Speaker 1: on earlier this morning, and he was saying he's concerned
Speaker 1: about the number of individuals out there, the infrastructure to
Speaker 1: deliver the inoculations in a timely manner. Is that something
Speaker 1: that concerns you as well, it's you know, we were
Speaker 1: all worried about that, but the first trench of vaccinations
Speaker 1: are sort of easier for us to do because they're
Speaker 1: going to be healthcare workers who work within healthcare systems
Speaker 1: that generally already have an infrastructure and apparatus in place,
Speaker 1: and they're going to hopefully be nursing homes. And for
Speaker 1: vulnerable individuals living in an institutions for which we also
Speaker 1: have an apparatus in place. It's the next step after
Speaker 1: that that we should all be most concerned about. But
Speaker 1: because we really want to get the vulnerable individuals in
Speaker 1: the community have suffered so much, the people of color,
Speaker 1: poor people, people that that have to risk their life
Speaker 1: every day as an essential worker, but not a healthcare worker,
Speaker 1: and how do we reach them. That's where it starts
Speaker 1: getting more challenging. Is the issue that people don't have
Speaker 1: confidence necessarily in a vaccine that's rushed out, or is
Speaker 1: the issue that there isn't the medical infrastructure built into
Speaker 1: some of those areas. This idea of people having a
Speaker 1: primary care physician or somebody that they regularly contact. Look,
Speaker 1: I think urban areas that have well developed public health
Speaker 1: infrastructure are going to be in a much better position
Speaker 1: to do this. And I think the fact that the
Speaker 1: federal government has already contracted with I believe CBS and
Speaker 1: Walgreens as part of the distribution plan abodes well for
Speaker 1: urban areas. I think getting out to rural areas. And then,
Speaker 1: as you point out, this issue of vaccine hesitancy should
Speaker 1: should concern everybody. We have witnessed over the last several months,
Speaker 1: um a schism in this country where some people are
Speaker 1: adherents of of good public health practices and some people
Speaker 1: think that it is a political statement to UM to
Speaker 1: basically give up on all those public health practices. We
Speaker 1: need everybody to want to get this vaccination. Well, how
Speaker 1: do you combat that? I mean, we've had anti vaxxers
Speaker 1: for years. I mean how do you combat that, especially
Speaker 1: at a time when there is the perception that this
Speaker 1: has been rushed through. So I think consistent messaging from
Speaker 1: leadership all the way on down. It has to be bipartisan.
Speaker 1: It has to come from the president, it has to
Speaker 1: come from the vice president, It has to come from
Speaker 1: all public health officials, it has to come from all
Speaker 1: state officials. Right now, we know that if we even
Speaker 1: look among red states, there are some red states where
Speaker 1: the messaging is excellent. There are some red states where
Speaker 1: the messaging is not excellent right now, Um, And so
Speaker 1: we've got to get over that. We've got to get
Speaker 1: past this sort of partisan divide in our country and
Speaker 1: get back to a point where everybody is basically messaging
Speaker 1: consistent evidence and fact and allowing the public to make
Speaker 1: a good decision, which in this case is about a
Speaker 1: vaccine that is highly highly effective and has very very
Speaker 1: low uh react to genicity or side effects. How politically
Speaker 1: fraught is it for big companies to get chunks of
Speaker 1: doses basically to distribute to their workforce that they can
Speaker 1: get back up in business. I'm sure from an economic
Speaker 1: perspective it would help people get back into the office
Speaker 1: and increase productivity. But is that something that could be
Speaker 1: a politically difficult thing to swallow, especially in the initial
Speaker 1: phases of the vaccine distribution. So in the initial phases, certainly,
Speaker 1: But but again I think that really helps the cause
Speaker 1: is if employers are able to facilitate this, if they
Speaker 1: too message this in a nonpartisan manner, if they are
Speaker 1: able to a message to their employees that this is
Speaker 1: something that they're providing to them as a benefit and
Speaker 1: facilitating it. That can be very very helpful. All right,
Speaker 1: going forward, when do you think that we'll reach some
Speaker 1: sort of full herd immunity. Do you think that that
Speaker 1: is a time in the near future where we can
Speaker 1: stop wearing masks and actually get together and hug each other.
Speaker 1: I mean just generally, Look, yeah, right, Um, herd immunity
Speaker 1: is about me being vaccinated, but protecting people who are
Speaker 1: not vaccinated, And unfortunately, I think that's going to be
Speaker 1: a long way off, a lot further off than people realize.
Speaker 1: And let me just point this out. We don't know
Speaker 1: whether the Maderna vaccine nor the Fiser vaccine provides true
Speaker 1: sterilizing immunity, which is what you need for her immunity.
Speaker 1: So her immunity means that I cannot infect you. What
Speaker 1: we know about these two vaccines so far is that
Speaker 1: they definitely protect against moderate and severe infection uh in
Speaker 1: in both cases I think protect against death. Um. That
Speaker 1: is huge for the individual. It doesn't mean that we'll
Speaker 1: achieve her immunity, because it may be the case that
Speaker 1: half the population that gets vaccinated still gets infected, but
Speaker 1: they just have no symptoms and therefore they may still
Speaker 1: be part of the feedstock of continued infection. We need
Speaker 1: those answers and those those may not come for several months.
Speaker 1: Dr Howard Foreman, thank you so much of being with
Speaker 1: us of Yale University. Certainly people are putting their hope
Speaker 1: in the vaccines coming out and putting an end to
Speaker 1: some of the pandemic that we have seen so far
Speaker 1: that seems to be accelerating and worsening throughout the United
Speaker 1: States and around the world. Thanks for listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.