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Speaker 2: The market's finally tuned to react to any piece of
Speaker 2: economic data, including the Jolt data from this morning, as
Speaker 2: we await the jobs report on Friday, all of it, Joe,
Speaker 2: so that it can paint a clear picture of what
Speaker 2: may happen with the trajectory of monetary policy, what the
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve will actually do at its meeting later this month.
Speaker 2: At the same time, though, here in Washington, we have
Speaker 2: major questions about fiscal policy, and we're getting more details
Speaker 2: and as to what fiscal policy could look like under
Speaker 2: both of the potential presidencies of Harris and Trump two
Speaker 2: point them.
Speaker 3: Get ready for a lot of talk about tax cuts
Speaker 3: and tax policy here, maybe tax hikes in some areas.
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris looking to hike the corporate tax, which Wall
Speaker 3: Street has an allergy to inherently.
Speaker 4: Donald Trump, though, was talking about making permanent.
Speaker 3: Of course, the fairly popular on Wall Street twenty seventeen
Speaker 3: tax cuts, and the new analysis from Goldman Sachs paints
Speaker 3: a pretty ugly picture about what that would mean for
Speaker 3: deficit spending. Try ten and a half trillion dollars over
Speaker 3: a decade technically, as we understand it now, and we
Speaker 3: do need more details on both campaigns plans. Donald Trump
Speaker 3: is outspending Kamala Harris at this.
Speaker 2: Stage, although it is worth pointing out she would like
Speaker 2: to do some tax cutting of her own. She's going
Speaker 2: to outline today she would like to reduce the number
Speaker 2: or the amount of taxes that small businesses have to
Speaker 2: pay by expanding the small business tax credit.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to hear from her a round two
Speaker 3: forty five Eastern time from the seacoast of New Hampshire,
Speaker 3: and along for the ride is Congressman Gabe Amo, a
Speaker 3: Democrat from Rhode Island who brought an historic candidacy to
Speaker 3: the Ocean state, the first black member of Congress in
Speaker 3: the state of Rhode Island and now on the road
Speaker 3: for the Harris campaign. Congressman welcome. You have a good sense,
Speaker 3: I think of the audience listening in to this argument
Speaker 3: over taxes and the economy, because the guys hanging around
Speaker 3: Cascerta Pizza in Providence have a lot in common with
Speaker 3: the guys hanging around the Puritan Backroom in Manchester, all
Speaker 3: of whom are going to be listening to this today.
Speaker 3: And it becomes almost a question, Congressman.
Speaker 4: Of who do you believe? Who do you trust.
Speaker 3: More with the economy, And Kamala Harris says it is her.
Speaker 3: Despite the track record that Donald Trump has to put
Speaker 3: on the table, how does she appeal to the folks
Speaker 3: at the Puritan Backroom and Cacerta Pizza who want to
Speaker 3: know if their taxes are going up?
Speaker 5: Well, first off, thanks for having me, and I am
Speaker 5: glad that you are displaying your Rhode Island knowledge of Cacerto,
Speaker 5: which is a great institution on Federal Hill right here
Speaker 5: in Providence. And I think ultimately this comes down to
Speaker 5: who do you think has your best interests in mind?
Speaker 5: Who do you think wants opportunity for the many and
Speaker 5: not the few? And frankly, the proof is in the pudding.
Speaker 5: We have seen with the Trump tax cuts, the concentration
Speaker 5: of wealth at the top. Frankly, the middle class saw
Speaker 5: higher taxes while with this opportunity agenda that Vice President
Speaker 5: Harris is putting forward. The announcement today is an example
Speaker 5: of that, twenty five million new business registrations as the
Speaker 5: goal working towards that startup expense, those expenses being deductible
Speaker 5: at a higher rate tenfold, fifty thousand dollars, where we
Speaker 5: know a cost on average of forty thousand dollars to
Speaker 5: start a new business. So again the question is who
Speaker 5: is fighting for you and those in your lives so
Speaker 5: that everybody can have opportunity.
Speaker 2: Well, Congressman, does there have to be a certain degree
Speaker 2: of honesty here about whether Kamala Harris can fight that
Speaker 2: fight alone. She's not going to be able to institute
Speaker 2: this policy or any others regarding the revenue spending of
Speaker 2: this government without Congress control. Right, even if you and
Speaker 2: your colleagues can win back the majority, it's not looking
Speaker 2: as optimistic perhaps in the Senate.
Speaker 5: Well, look, I am an optimist, and you know the
Speaker 5: only poll that matters is that on election day, and
Speaker 5: so we're going to be working hard. I am cautiously
Speaker 5: optimistic that Speaker Hakeem Jeffries will be something that comes
Speaker 5: to fruition. I am also confident that we will be
Speaker 5: able to hold the Senate. Now, that's going to take
Speaker 5: a lot of work, and I think Vice President Harris's
Speaker 5: presence on the ticket has buoyed our potential. And I
Speaker 5: feel very strongly that the American people when presented with
Speaker 5: these options of investing in an opportunity agenda we heard
Speaker 5: previously last month on housing and ensuring that everybody has
Speaker 5: the opportunity to own a home, today, on growing small
Speaker 5: businesses and cutting red tape versus a double down on
Speaker 5: trickle down economics making permanent which has been one of
Speaker 5: the biggest increases in income disparity and wealth disparity in
Speaker 5: our country. That's the choice that Americans have, and I
Speaker 5: believe that most of them will SiGe for everybody having
Speaker 5: a seat at the table and growing their pie.
Speaker 3: Congressman, we'd downed. I believe it's sixty two days to
Speaker 3: that final pull you refer to in November. How important
Speaker 3: is it for Kamala Harris? And I'll hear from all
Speaker 3: the Harris supporters on Twitter about this. We're asking the
Speaker 3: same about both campaigns. Does she have to explain detail
Speaker 3: how she's going to pay for all of her proposals?
Speaker 5: Well, I think that's part of the process, and we
Speaker 5: are hearing that. You know, I think over time again,
Speaker 5: this campaign, as you noted, has sixty two days left,
Speaker 5: sixty two days to make a case to the American
Speaker 5: people and explain what we'll do regarding taxes, making sure
Speaker 5: that there is true tax fairness, that there is an
Speaker 5: opportunity for those companies who aren't paying their fair share
Speaker 5: to contribute in a fair, reasonable way to the strength
Speaker 5: and growth of our economy so that everybody can thrive.
Speaker 5: So those explanations are underway, and that is in contrast
Speaker 5: to what the former president has talked about in terms
Speaker 5: of giveaways to industry for in exchange for support. That
Speaker 5: is not how this economy is meant to work. And
Speaker 5: I believe in the fairness that the Vice President will
Speaker 5: pursue what their opportunity agenda will lay that out very clearly.
Speaker 2: Of course, sir, it's not just a question of the
Speaker 2: kind of economic policy she'll pursue, but foreign policy as well,
Speaker 2: especially in light of the developments over the last few
Speaker 2: days in the Middle East, the death of six hostages
Speaker 2: that were being held by Hamas, ongoing pressure on the
Speaker 2: net and Yahoo government and Hamas to agree to a
Speaker 2: cease fire. I ask you this, knowing you sit on
Speaker 2: the Foreign Affairs Committee, what does Kamala Harris need to
Speaker 2: say to the American people about the policy she will
Speaker 2: pursue when it comes to Israel and Gaza.
Speaker 5: I think what you'll hear from the Vice President is
Speaker 5: a clear and focused set of goals around achieving peace,
Speaker 5: ultimately a two state solution, but in the near term,
Speaker 5: making sure that we get the negotiated end to hostilities
Speaker 5: and get hostages back, as well as provide a robust
Speaker 5: set of humanitarian responses to a situation that has turned
Speaker 5: into a cycle of violence where there is a deficit
Speaker 5: of hope. And so we'll continue to hear from the
Speaker 5: Vice President and in her capacity, as you know, she
Speaker 5: has traveled around the world that with hundreds of world leaders,
Speaker 5: executed a diplomatic agenda on behalf of the Biden Harris administration.
Speaker 5: So she is one of the most experienced people to
Speaker 5: step into the Oval office when she wins on a
Speaker 5: foreign policy from a foreign policy perspective, so I expect
Speaker 5: her to lay out a continued commitment to diplomatic resolutions
Speaker 5: to tragic situations like one we're seeing in Gaza.
Speaker 3: Well, Congressmanamo, we don't need to tell you that the
Speaker 3: issue surrounding Israel specifically has been a major point of
Speaker 3: concern for progressive Democrats who have been disappointed with the
Speaker 3: Biden administration's approach to helping to protect civilian lives, for
Speaker 3: instance in Gaza. Will progressives be disappointed all over again
Speaker 3: when they realize that Kamala Harris has the same policy.
Speaker 5: Well, I see that Democrats by and large are excited
Speaker 5: about Vice President Harris, and I think they will see
Speaker 5: that in her approach, which will be that that she
Speaker 5: is driving is going to be about finding solutions, bringing
Speaker 5: people together. You know, there's a lot of divisiveness on
Speaker 5: this issue. This is not a political football. This is
Speaker 5: about lives. This is about people who are suffering, the poor,
Speaker 5: hostage families who are you know, desperately seeking answers, and
Speaker 5: those who have lost so many in Gaza, so many
Speaker 5: Palestinians who for no fault of their own other than
Speaker 5: the birth lottery, are suffering. And so I think you
Speaker 5: will see a compassion from her that is consistent with
Speaker 5: our values, and we'll really speak to all of the
Speaker 5: concerns across the broad and big tent of the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2: And finally, Congressman, as you join us today from Rhode
Speaker 2: Island with Harris spending time in New Hampshire, if you
Speaker 2: could just speak to the state of play in New
Speaker 2: England overall.
Speaker 6: Is New Hampshire an area in.
Speaker 2: Which this campaign needs to devote time and resources, is
Speaker 2: actually something that's going to be a real contest in
Speaker 2: this cycle.
Speaker 5: Well, look, nothing is a given in politics, and we
Speaker 5: were going to be working hard in New Hampshire. In fact,
Speaker 5: I've been there previously this cycle, spend time in Exeter
Speaker 5: and Manchester and conquered and will go go back to
Speaker 5: make the case to my New England neighbors that we
Speaker 5: have to work hard. This is not an election that
Speaker 5: is going to be a blowout. It's going to be close.
Speaker 5: We are the underdog. The Vice President is the underdog,
Speaker 5: make no mistake about it. But with all of the
Speaker 5: work that we will do, New England will go blue
Speaker 5: and we will make sure that to send a clear
Speaker 5: message that we want an agenda focused on protecting our freedoms,
Speaker 5: expanding economic opportunity, and making sure this is democracy can
Speaker 5: stand for the betterment of all Americans, especially all of
Speaker 5: the folks that I share New England with here in
Speaker 5: Rhode Island.
Speaker 2: All right, Democratic Congressman gave Amo of Rhode Island, thank
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us today, sir.
Speaker 6: We appreciate your time.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: We want to stay now in New England and New
Speaker 2: Hampshire specifically. We're joined now by the Republican Governor of
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, Chris Sanunu, Governor. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV
Speaker 2: and Radio. It's always great to have you, sir. I'd
Speaker 2: like to ask you the same kind of question I
Speaker 2: just asked of the Congressman. Polling is now showing that
Speaker 2: the map is wider in terms of the swing states
Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris than it was for Joe Biden. The
Speaker 2: co chair of the RNC, Laura Trump, told me just
Speaker 2: last week they're looking to spend more money in states
Speaker 2: like North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Would you be advising the
Speaker 2: Republican Party the campaign specifically to waste precious time and
Speaker 2: money in New Hampshire this time?
Speaker 7: Well, without a doubt.
Speaker 8: I mean, look, if you look at the electoral map,
Speaker 8: a lot of these swing states are going to be close.
Speaker 8: New Hampshire is going to be very close. But if
Speaker 8: if Kamala Harris were to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,
Speaker 8: the victory for Trump is North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire. Right,
Speaker 8: So when you got to do the electoral math on this,
Speaker 8: and yeah, we might only have four electoral votes, but
Speaker 8: there's no doubt it's going to come into play. And
Speaker 8: this is a state that Trump only lost by two
Speaker 8: thousand votes. Two thousand votes that's nothing back in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 8: And I think a lot of us agree that twenty
Speaker 8: twenty four is going to look a lot more like
Speaker 8: twenty sixteen in terms of the race.
Speaker 7: So I have no doubt that they will be putting
Speaker 7: resources here.
Speaker 8: Obviously, the former vice president thinks she needs to spend
Speaker 8: I mean, the current Vice president, Kamala Harris needs to
Speaker 8: think that she needs to spend time here to earn
Speaker 8: and still have a chance to win the state. She's
Speaker 8: coming today, and I think you're going to see Trump
Speaker 8: coming and spending money here as well.
Speaker 4: Hey, Governor, it's good to see you. This is the
Speaker 4: kind of stuff we live for.
Speaker 3: We just talked to a Harris surrogate, a Democratic member
Speaker 3: of the House of Representatives from New England, and it's
Speaker 3: a great opportunity to ask you, as Kaylee said, some
Speaker 3: of the same questions, to get a sense of where
Speaker 3: your head is. We associate you with traditional dare I say,
Speaker 3: old fashioned Republican conservative values, and I wonder what your
Speaker 3: thought is when it comes to some of the deficit
Speaker 3: spending that we're hearing about from both campaigns. The analysis
Speaker 3: from Goldman Sachs makes it pretty clear that the deficit
Speaker 3: spending that Bloomberg estimates with top ten trillion dollars over
Speaker 3: a decade to making permanent the Trump tax cuts without
Speaker 3: weigh any other benefits of his tax proposal. Kamala Harris,
Speaker 3: I believe is in the area of two trillion dollars
Speaker 3: in deficit spending, with at least the amount that we
Speaker 3: have heard. And I know that you're not about to
Speaker 3: vote for the Harris campaign. Are you concerned about ballooning deficits.
Speaker 3: As a conservative sitting in New Hampshire under a Trump
Speaker 3: two point zero, I'm.
Speaker 8: Concerned about a blooming deficits in America, regardless of who's end.
Speaker 8: There's no question about that. I mean, let's be honest.
Speaker 8: Republicans in the House and the Senate have not held
Speaker 8: up the conservative fiscal values that the Ronald Reagan is
Speaker 8: and the Christanu News really champion.
Speaker 7: So it's not just about Trump. It's about Congress.
Speaker 8: It's about actually a leadership on the Republican side in
Speaker 8: the Senate, in the House saying hey, here's a proposal
Speaker 8: for bounds budget, here's how you do it, here's the
Speaker 8: tough decisions to get it done now. Under the potential
Speaker 8: Harris administration, as with Biden, it's been an just an
Speaker 8: economic disaster on the macro scale, but more importantly, it's
Speaker 8: been a disaster on the microeconomic scale, being the rent,
Speaker 8: the cost of living, the fact people can't afford their
Speaker 8: electricity bills, they panic about how they're gonna put food
Speaker 8: on the table. I mean that those are real issues.
Speaker 8: Inflation isn't three point nine percent. That's not how people
Speaker 8: look at it. Inflation is more like twenty five to
Speaker 8: thirty five percent compounded since the last administration. And that's
Speaker 8: what people going to look at. I could afford things
Speaker 8: four years ago, I can't afford them now. They're gonna
Speaker 8: go to the ballot box and they're going to vote
Speaker 8: on those those issues of that financial stress, that anxiety,
Speaker 8: if you will, that stuff that keeps them up at night.
Speaker 8: That's what drives a voter. And that ten to twelve
Speaker 8: percent of swing voters that are still out there, that's
Speaker 8: far and away the number one issue. Not so much
Speaker 8: on the macroeconomic scale. I get nervous about that, but
Speaker 8: day to day, family to family, it's all about how
Speaker 8: we're going to pay our bills. And who's the agent
Speaker 8: of change, clearly not the current administration. Right, You're just
Speaker 8: going to get the same, if not worse in terms
Speaker 8: of economic policies, price controls, and all that nonsense. But
Speaker 8: the agent of change to actually make people's lives more affordable,
Speaker 8: and that's going to be Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, governor, is that really true though? If he's talking
Speaker 2: about blanket tariffs on everything that the US brings in
Speaker 2: perhaps sixty percent on goods from China, the world's second
Speaker 2: largest economy. Any economists would tell you that is inflationary policy.
Speaker 2: If this is really about the cost of goods, that
Speaker 2: doesn't mean they're going lower under Trump.
Speaker 7: Yeah. No, look, I completely agree.
Speaker 8: I don't love the tariff policies that he's putting forward,
Speaker 8: But again that's strategy, right, that's kind of the leverage
Speaker 8: you want to use from America's position as the world
Speaker 8: leader and as the economic leader in the world to
Speaker 8: force better decisions and better results out of China and
Speaker 8: ultimately even Europe and the rest of Asia. So again
Speaker 8: that Biden administration has ignored it. Right, they haven't done
Speaker 8: anything on any of these issues. They're letting China grow
Speaker 8: more powerful to understand what's going on and these international economies,
Speaker 8: and to kind of threaten those terrorists, to threaten some
Speaker 8: sanctions and things of that nature, to gear up better
Speaker 8: international negotiations on what you know, ultimately what not just
Speaker 8: the terrorists, but what other regulatory barriers should be there,
Speaker 8: so they're not stealing our ip and all of that.
Speaker 8: I'll say this, none of that's going to matter when
Speaker 8: it comes to the vote.
Speaker 7: It's really not.
Speaker 8: When it comes to whether people vote for Trump or
Speaker 8: Harris that's kind of a thirty thousand foot level issue.
Speaker 8: People are going to vote on their anxieties. It's the border,
Speaker 8: but not about the eleven million illegals coming in. That's
Speaker 8: bad enough, I mean, we can't stand that. But it's
Speaker 8: the drugs they're bringing in. It's the human trafficking issue.
Speaker 8: Right to take those macro issues and have a candidate
Speaker 8: and that's what you're going to hopefully see in the debate.
Speaker 7: These candidates bring it down to a real.
Speaker 8: Level of what parents are struggling about and what parents
Speaker 8: are driving, you know, their anxieties on if you will,
Speaker 8: on the on cost of living and drugs.
Speaker 7: How it affects their families.
Speaker 8: That's what's going to really be the selling point that
Speaker 8: that I think Trump has to get by and kind
Speaker 8: of sell to the people if you will, because I
Speaker 8: do think that Republicans have the right answers.
Speaker 7: They have real results. It's not just hey, I'm not
Speaker 7: Joe Biden.
Speaker 8: I mean that's literally all the Kamala Harris campaign has
Speaker 8: right now. That's not enough to cross the finish line
Speaker 8: in these swing states come November fifth.
Speaker 3: Well, she's proposing some small business tax incentives in your
Speaker 3: state today, governor, which.
Speaker 4: Is why she's gone there.
Speaker 3: But the analysis that we got from Alec Phillips at
Speaker 3: Goldman Sachs does leave us scratching our heads a bit.
Speaker 3: He estimates if Donald Trump wins the hit to growth
Speaker 3: from the tariffs we're discussing right now, assuming they're twenty
Speaker 3: percentage points across the board, and tighter immigration policy, would
Speaker 3: outweigh the positive fiscal impulse and result in something in
Speaker 3: the area of a half percentage point of GDP. If
Speaker 3: the experts on Wall Street are telling us that deficit
Speaker 3: spending will increase inflation and that this Trump plan will
Speaker 3: slow economic growth, how does that help anybody with their
Speaker 3: anxiety about high prices?
Speaker 8: Because Kamala Harris is proposing price controls which would absolutely
Speaker 8: crush the economy, which would absolutely crush any sense of entrepreneurship,
Speaker 8: would absolutely crush the stock market, reduce.
Speaker 7: Any sense of Oh.
Speaker 8: And then you add on the that we're going to
Speaker 8: taxi on unrealized gains, right, that crushes the stock market.
Speaker 8: Right That basically says anyone who's making major investments to
Speaker 8: companies that ultimately grow and employ people, that all comes
Speaker 8: to a screeching hall. Kamala Harris's policies, She had an
Speaker 8: opportunity to actually go to the middle, but she went
Speaker 8: even more extreme than Joe Biden. So Joe Biden has
Speaker 8: in his administration has completely destroyed this economy and people's
Speaker 8: ability to afford anything. She goes even further left than that,
Speaker 8: that government is going to can now control prices and
Speaker 8: destroy any sense of entrepreneurship or innovation in any of
Speaker 8: these new markets, allowing just basically a couple of giant
Speaker 8: companies to control things, and it actually ends up in
Speaker 8: causing a massive reverberation in a negative way throughout this
Speaker 8: entire economy. So, I mean, the the scary point that
Speaker 8: you're not bringing up in that article doesn't address is
Speaker 8: the fact that the Democrats, and they're not even Democrat policies,
Speaker 8: they're extreme liberal policies, would be devastating to the average
Speaker 8: American in terms of what they can afford.
Speaker 2: Governor, I'd like to ask you about a well read
Speaker 2: piece today, and it's Jonathan Martin's new column in Politico magazine.
Speaker 2: The headline reads as follows, If Republicans want to win,
Speaker 2: they need Trump to lose big. It's this notion that
Speaker 2: members of your party at least off the record, are
Speaker 2: suggesting it, Actually, we would be net beneficial in the
Speaker 2: medium term. Shall we say, for Donald Trump to lose
Speaker 2: this election, what do you think about that idea?
Speaker 6: Would it be better for the party?
Speaker 7: No, of course not.
Speaker 8: Look so, with all due respect, of course, anytime you
Speaker 8: have a president on office, the opposite party has an
Speaker 8: opportunity in the midterm elections.
Speaker 7: That's been tried and true for one hundred years.
Speaker 8: Doesn't mean it's an automatic win for them, but you
Speaker 8: know that typically is just how it works. With all
Speaker 8: due respect to Jonathan, I love the guy, but he's
Speaker 8: not saying anything that is really news and other than
Speaker 8: the fact that if he says that party insiders. Look,
Speaker 8: I hate to tell you, I'm a governor. I'm a
Speaker 8: pretty popular governor, and I'm kind of on the inside,
Speaker 8: and I talk to other governors, I talk to other
Speaker 8: politicians all the time.
Speaker 7: Nobody's talking about that.
Speaker 8: No, no, not at all, Because what you know, what matters,
Speaker 8: what's going to get America in a better place down
Speaker 8: the road.
Speaker 7: Results matter, and the.
Speaker 8: Trump administration as an administration can start delivering real results,
Speaker 8: bringing costs to living down, trying to deal with the
Speaker 8: drug crisis, the border crisis, and if you get those results,
Speaker 8: that's a huge win for Republicans that want to run
Speaker 8: in twenty twenty six or even twenty twenty eight. So no,
Speaker 8: I disagree with the premise completely. I do believe results matter,
Speaker 8: and I can honestly tell you no one's talking about
Speaker 8: that on the inside of the political bubble, so to say,
Speaker 8: everybody is kind of galvanizing around making sure we get
Speaker 8: a Republican ticket. And look, whether you like Trump or not,
Speaker 8: what you get with Trump is a Republican administration, a
Speaker 8: new Republican head of the EPA. The current head of
Speaker 8: the EPA is an absolute disaster, a new Republican head
Speaker 8: of dot, a new Republican head of Education, all these
Speaker 8: departments that make rules and a lot of the processes
Speaker 8: that all of us have to live by. So that
Speaker 8: Republican administration is going to be a huge win for America.
Speaker 8: Even if you don't like the way Trump, you know,
Speaker 8: acts and what he says. I don't like any of that,
Speaker 8: but boy, that that change in whole holistic style out
Speaker 8: of d C is going to be hugely beneficial for
Speaker 8: this country. I mean, walk in any walk into any
Speaker 8: building in Washington, DC.
Speaker 7: Right now, nobody's there. They all work remotely.
Speaker 8: The federal government works at a snail's pace, at a
Speaker 8: snail's pace, because nobody actually comes to work, right It's
Speaker 8: it's incredible what the Biden administration has done to d C,
Speaker 8: bringing the whole process to gridlock. So you're not just
Speaker 8: voting for Trump, You're voting for a whole change in
Speaker 8: an approach to government where again, you as the individual
Speaker 8: come first. States rights matter, local individual control is actually important.
Speaker 7: Again, those are the things I live in Washington.
Speaker 3: I was in traffic for over an hour this morning.
Speaker 3: I think nobody is coming to work down here. But
Speaker 3: you've probably saw your name in this column before we
Speaker 3: let you go. Consider the governors, Glenn Youngkins, the lobbyists,
Speaker 3: well maybe the reporters too, Brian Kemp and yes, New
Speaker 3: Hampshire's Chris sanunuw it says, would all be prime targets
Speaker 3: for Senate Republicans. I thought you already decided that was
Speaker 3: a bad idea, that nothing gets done here.
Speaker 8: Uh you mean in terms of me right now, I
Speaker 8: have no interest in running for the the US Senate.
Speaker 8: Oh no, nothing does get done in DC. It's incredibly frustrating.
Speaker 8: Governors get stuff done, we get results, we stand accountable,
Speaker 8: we stand behind the wins and the losses and and
Speaker 8: that's what that's what good government's all about. So No,
Speaker 8: I was once ranked, you know, the most of it.
Speaker 8: We had ranking of the most efficient government in the
Speaker 8: country here in New Hampshire, which is like being the
Speaker 8: best surfer in Kansas.
Speaker 7: I get it.
Speaker 8: But yeah, it is something that we need to take
Speaker 8: pride in and compared to d C is just a
Speaker 8: it's a it's been an epic disaster.
Speaker 7: So no, thank you. I've done my four terms.
Speaker 8: We go off into the private sector and happy to
Speaker 8: help anybody learn how to win races on the private
Speaker 8: side of things.
Speaker 3: That that I can just think of the conversations we'll
Speaker 3: be able to have when he's out of office. Keley, Governor,
Speaker 3: it's great to see you. We invoked the Puritan's back
Speaker 3: room before you came on the air. Say hi to
Speaker 3: everybody for us in Manchester. Chris Nunu, of course, the
Speaker 3: governor of New Hampshire.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 4: We carry on here the Wednesday edition of Balance of
Speaker 4: Power Boy. This week is moving quick.
Speaker 3: I actually thought, like you, it was Tuesday earlier, coming
Speaker 3: off the long holiday weekend. Kamala Harris, as you just learned,
Speaker 3: clearly going to be in New Hampshire talking economy earlier,
Speaker 3: but then it's onto Pittsburgh. This is interesting, Kayley reports
Speaker 3: earlier today on debate Prep in the Washington Post. She's
Speaker 3: going to be holding her final days of prep honkered
Speaker 3: down in Pittsburgh, not Camp David or at home for instance,
Speaker 3: and she's going to get there Thursday and stay for
Speaker 3: the rest of that period of time.
Speaker 4: I guess sequestered so there are no distractions.
Speaker 2: Yep, staying in Pennsylvania, and then she'll make the journey
Speaker 2: from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia, where the debate will take place,
Speaker 2: of course, on ABC on September tenth. We're going to
Speaker 2: have full coverage of that, of course, alongside our signature
Speaker 2: political panel, Rick Davis and Genie.
Speaker 3: Shop That's right, let's bring him in right now our
Speaker 3: panel today with debate prep in mind and of course,
Speaker 3: Rick Davis is someone who knows a lot about that,
Speaker 3: having prepared multiple candidates through murder boards, as they call them,
Speaker 3: getting through the prep and trying to simulate the debate
Speaker 3: that they're going to endure next Tuesday. Rick, we understand
Speaker 3: Philip Rains again will be playing Donald Trump in full
Speaker 3: cosplay here. I don't know if he's got the wig
Speaker 3: on or not, but he's wearing lifts and doing things
Speaker 3: to make it look like he's Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: To what extent do you like this idea?
Speaker 3: Because I know that you were concerned about Joe Biden's prep.
Speaker 3: Some suggested he was over prepared. To go to a
Speaker 3: different city to hunker down with your advisors and get ready.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think that practice is a good thing. It's
Speaker 9: been a while since Kamala Harris was on a debate
Speaker 9: stage in a competitive environment, and this is the big show,
Speaker 9: so I think she's doing the right thing by hunkering
Speaker 9: down and bringing her team in and and you know,
Speaker 9: putting reins into a red tie.
Speaker 1: Again.
Speaker 9: The more familiarity that you have with the stage and
Speaker 9: the surroundings and the lighting, the easier it's going to
Speaker 9: be for you to get into sort of a thinking mode, right.
Speaker 9: And we've talked about this before about debates, but you know,
Speaker 9: these debaters get nervous. I mean, this is the biggest
Speaker 9: thing she's going to have done since her since her
Speaker 9: convention speech, and maybe the most important moment of her
Speaker 9: political career. And tell me she's not going to have butterflies.
Speaker 9: And so getting used to the scenes and sounds and
Speaker 9: and action on a stage with lights in your face,
Speaker 9: and knowing that you only have a certain amount of
Speaker 9: time to respond, I think I think is wise to
Speaker 9: acclimatize the candidate to this.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 2: As you talk about the sounds, Rick, it also might
Speaker 2: be worth noting the sounds that won't be heard, at
Speaker 2: least to the audience, because, according to the debate rules
Speaker 2: released by ABC, the mics will be muted when it's
Speaker 2: not the candidate's turn to talk, as they were in
Speaker 2: the CNN debate between Trump and Biden back in June.
Speaker 2: Even despite the Harris campaign's protestation over that they would
Speaker 2: like the mics to stay hot, Genie, how is that
Speaker 2: likely to change the actual preparation that is underway. You
Speaker 2: don't necessarily need to work on something akin to the
Speaker 2: I'm speaking that we saw in the Harris Pence debate
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty if he can't speak while you're speaking, right.
Speaker 10: That's right. And we all remember she spent a lot
Speaker 10: of that debate trying to you know, hush up is
Speaker 10: the best way to put it on Mike Pence. You know,
Speaker 10: this is a margin of error election. This debate couldn't
Speaker 10: be more important for both of them. And I keep
Speaker 10: thinking that if there's one thing that Kamala Harris should do,
Speaker 10: you guys remember the movies of You Good Men with
Speaker 10: Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson on the stand. She got
Speaker 10: to entice Donald Trump to lose his mind. You know,
Speaker 10: you can't handle the truth style, and that's what she's
Speaker 10: got to do over and over again. To your point, Kayley,
Speaker 10: the lack you know, the muting is not going to help.
Speaker 11: Her with that.
Speaker 10: I'm old enough to remember the Rick Lazio Hillary Clinton
Speaker 10: debate here in New York, which was a local bait.
Speaker 10: But she's got to entice him to do that over
Speaker 10: and over again because people have to be reminded who
Speaker 10: Donald Trump is and the fact that he can't control
Speaker 10: himself when he's goaded into saying things. And that's where
Speaker 10: I would encourage her to go. We know she's methodical
Speaker 10: and preparing, so I'm hoping that's where she has focused
Speaker 10: her attention. But she'll be holed up in Pennsylvania doing
Speaker 10: this for so many days.
Speaker 3: You need me on that wall, Genie. The thing is,
Speaker 3: it may not be fully baked. Rick, I don't know
Speaker 3: what you guys think of this. The Harris campaign is
Speaker 3: telling NBC News that they have not agreed to the
Speaker 3: debate rules involving that muted microphone that Kaylee just mentioned.
Speaker 3: That they're still in fact hashing out several key issues,
Speaker 3: including the muting of microphones when it's not their turn
Speaker 3: to speak, Rick, what do you make of this? Are
Speaker 3: we going to see this debate continue the debate about
Speaker 3: the debate until next Tuesday.
Speaker 9: Yeah, there's some gaymanship going on here too. You know,
Speaker 9: as much as Donald Trump doesn't want to show that
Speaker 9: she's getting under his skin, it was just a couple
Speaker 9: of days ago he went on this rant about it.
Speaker 9: Of course he could do it with the microphones on,
Speaker 9: but they already agreed the microphones are going to be off.
Speaker 9: And I'm sure they took that statement and said, well,
Speaker 9: if he's agreed that the microphones can be on in
Speaker 9: our preference is to do that and just keep them
Speaker 9: all tangled up. I think tactically there are so many
Speaker 9: of these beneath the public perception of things that are
Speaker 9: going on. Just to get under his skin. And by
Speaker 9: the way, I think that's really going to be her
Speaker 9: approach in the debate. I don't think she's going to
Speaker 9: try to define Donald Trump. He's the most defined person
Speaker 9: maybe on the face of the earth. You're not going
Speaker 9: to chip into that a lot. But she does want
Speaker 9: to get under his skin and maybe elicit one of
Speaker 9: those you know moments that Genie talks about where you
Speaker 9: can't handle the truth comes out. Now in his case,
Speaker 9: it's probably more like you can't handle my lives. But
Speaker 9: that's a totally different situation.
Speaker 2: Well, in our final minute here, we've course had a
Speaker 2: conversation with the two of you yesterday about the idea
Speaker 2: that the election may be on November fifth, but voting
Speaker 2: starts at the end of this week, when absentee ballots
Speaker 2: start getting mailed out in North Carolina on Friday, is
Speaker 2: it possible that there will be people out there who've
Speaker 2: already made up their minds Genie before seeing either of
Speaker 2: these candidates on the stage next week.
Speaker 10: Absolutely, And you know, I think in fact, as we
Speaker 10: look at the data, we only have about ten percent
Speaker 10: of people who haven't made up their minds and who
Speaker 10: are still what we would consider persuadable. So it is
Speaker 10: a small number, but in an election this type, that
Speaker 10: is a critical number, and so this matters an awful lot.
Speaker 10: Even though to your point early barthing is starting imminently.
Speaker 10: It's very exciting, Kaylee. It's our time of year.
Speaker 6: Yes, it is.
Speaker 2: Geenie Shanzano and Rick Davis of course with us through
Speaker 2: all of the exciting twists and turns in this election cycle,
Speaker 2: our signature political panel. Thank you both so much for
Speaker 2: joining us here in Balance of Power.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: As we carry on with our conversation about politics, who
Speaker 3: want to stay on the markets for just a moment
Speaker 3: with some breaking news, Kaylee, coming from the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 3: I'm guessing the markets will like this because it appears
Speaker 3: no matter who wins the presidential election, we could see
Speaker 3: the top level capital gains tax go down. If you're
Speaker 3: looking for sunlight between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden when
Speaker 3: it comes to the economy, we may have just found it, Kaylee.
Speaker 3: She's going to talk about this in roughly one hour
Speaker 3: in New Hampshire.
Speaker 11: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter
Speaker 2: here that suggests that she is planning to propose a
Speaker 2: less drastic increase to the capital gains tax rate. It
Speaker 2: does not specify whether this is on unrealized gains, which
Speaker 2: of course has been a point of dispute and heavily
Speaker 2: criticized by Republicans. It's, according to the journals reporting, they've
Speaker 2: been discussing this move as they believe the Biden proposal
Speaker 2: put the rate too high, and a more modest rate
Speaker 2: increase could potentially encourage investment in entrepreneurship and access to
Speaker 2: capital for small businesses. And of course it's small businesses
Speaker 2: and a tax credit expansion for them that Harris is
Speaker 2: planning on.
Speaker 3: Focusing on pretty interesting stuff here. They think it'll encourage
Speaker 3: more investment. As you mentioned, entrepreneurs will key off of this,
Speaker 3: and that's kind of the theme today. She's talking about
Speaker 3: small businesses, small business incentives, tax incentives, Kayley. That add
Speaker 3: to what we've already heard about her plans involving price
Speaker 3: gouging and housing incentives. We're slowly constructing what this economic
Speaker 3: proposal will be.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's of course as we focus not just
Speaker 2: on economic policy but the domestic policy that these candidates
Speaker 2: would like to pursue more broadly. But there's foreign policy
Speaker 2: questions as well, though likely field some of these on
Speaker 2: the debate stage in Philadelphia next Tuesday as they get
Speaker 2: ready to prepare for their answers, and of course front
Speaker 2: and center within the Democratic Party specifically, the area in
Speaker 2: which there is perhaps the most tension around foreign policy
Speaker 2: is on the subject of Israel and its ongoing war
Speaker 2: in Gaza, especially in light of the death of six
Speaker 2: hostages over this past weekend. The US of course putting
Speaker 2: increased pressure on the Israeli government to reach a cease fire,
Speaker 2: and earlier today on surveillance, one of the members of
Speaker 2: that government, the Israel Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, joined
Speaker 2: our colleagues and had this to.
Speaker 12: Say, in the wake of the horrific execution of six hostages,
Speaker 12: including an a mayor in hirsch Goldberg, Poland, Israel is
Speaker 12: not going to make concessions in the wake of that.
Speaker 7: We are committed to a deal.
Speaker 12: We set people to sit with negotiators to try to
Speaker 12: get that deal done, and I hope we can do it.
Speaker 12: We're working with the US administration to try to push
Speaker 12: that deal forward. Until we have an actual practical solution
Speaker 12: on the ground for the Philadelphia Corridor, Israel forces cannot leave.
Speaker 2: For more on this, We're joined now by Marav Rudmand.
Speaker 2: She is professor at the Miller Center at the University
Speaker 2: of Virginia, also director of the Ripples of Hope project
Speaker 2: focused on democratic solutions. Professor Rudman, welcome back to Bloomberg
Speaker 2: TV and Radio. It's great to have you. Obviously, we
Speaker 2: are all trying to figure out how the calculus around
Speaker 2: a ceasefire agreement has changed in the aftermath of this
Speaker 2: weekend's events. Thousands of protesters we have seen take to
Speaker 2: the streets in Israel. Do you think the odds are
Speaker 2: greater now than they were before this happened that an
Speaker 2: agreement is reached or lower.
Speaker 11: Thanksally, good to be with you again for this important discussion.
Speaker 11: I think the odds have been hard all along and
Speaker 11: they continue to be so because both bb Netanyahu, Israel's
Speaker 11: Prime Minister, and Yaya Sinoar, the head of Hamas and
Speaker 11: the mastermind of the horrendous Hamas action against Israel starting
Speaker 11: October seventh book plan well before themselves, do not have
Speaker 11: an interest in getting to a cease fire. Many pass
Speaker 11: means in Gaza do, many past means in the West
Speaker 11: Bank do, as well as certainly Egypt Katar who are
Speaker 11: working on that, and the same is true within Israel.
Speaker 11: Of them, many Israelis taken to the street to to
Speaker 11: push for sea fire, and Prime mister, who's own defense minister,
Speaker 11: has made very clear that he thinks it's important and
Speaker 11: critical for Israel's interest to go forward. But two key
Speaker 11: decision makers are very tough to turn on this, and
Speaker 11: uh And seems to have doubled down. I think Sinmar
Speaker 11: has been in a tough for a while now.
Speaker 3: Well, we heard from Netanya who earlier this hour Maara,
Speaker 3: and he made clear, reaching directly for the sticking point here,
Speaker 3: that Israel must stay along the Egypt Gaza border in
Speaker 3: a first phase of a ceasefire the Philadelphi Corridor that.
Speaker 4: We've been hearing so much about.
Speaker 3: As long as that's the case, there's no ceasefire.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 11: Well, that's Netnaha's position, as articulated by Ron Dermer, who
Speaker 11: of course was ambassador to the United States, has been
Speaker 11: a close ally of Natunahu for some time. I know
Speaker 11: Ron Drmer, I've worked with him when I served in
Speaker 11: President Obama's administration, and h he's a political guy. The
Speaker 11: person who is actually got their portfolio and responsibility on
Speaker 11: Israel's security needs and what's most important for Israel's security
Speaker 11: is the Defense Minister Jev Golant, who has made it
Speaker 11: very clear and has been public about it that he
Speaker 11: believes that Israel is best protected by bringing hostages home
Speaker 11: and not physically controlling the Philadelphia Corridor. That he believes
Speaker 11: there are many other routes to also provide for the
Speaker 11: security that Ron Dharmer talked about on Prime Minister Netanyahu's behalf.
Speaker 11: So I think if the primary focus is what's in
Speaker 11: Israel's interest and bringing hostages home in Israel's security, it
Speaker 11: goes to some compromises that I believe have been on
Speaker 11: the table or are on the table about the Philadelphia Corridor.
Speaker 11: Should be clear, it's not at all obvious that even
Speaker 11: if Netanyahu agrees that ya Ya Sinhoa is prepared to agree.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 2: And of course it's not just Sinhwar and net Nyahu
Speaker 2: and their governments or they're in the case of Hamas
Speaker 2: the organization that's at the table. There's meteorators involved in
Speaker 2: this too, including the US, but Egypt and cutter as well.
Speaker 2: Are there more that any of these mediating groups could
Speaker 2: be doing to force this deal to happen?
Speaker 6: Or is everyone out of leverage here?
Speaker 11: I think neither of your two statements, KLi Kayler are true.
Speaker 11: In other words, no, I do not think things are
Speaker 11: any of the countries involved are out of leverage. You're
Speaker 11: never done until you're done on this kind of issue,
Speaker 11: and it is hard for all the reasons we've discussed.
Speaker 11: But I also believe that the United States, with Israel
Speaker 11: and in partnership with the Egyptians and Kataris, who I
Speaker 11: believe are working every point of leverage they have with Hamas,
Speaker 11: are doing absolutely everything they can and will continue to
Speaker 11: do everything that they can until there is a breakthrough
Speaker 11: on this. There is no giving up on this issue.
Speaker 11: There cannot be.
Speaker 3: How long has the window open though, in all reality, Mara.
Speaker 3: For Benjamin Netanya, who specifically and if he announces a
Speaker 3: cease fire here, what will it mean for his political career?
Speaker 11: Well, listen, this is the reason that Netanyahu and Sinoir
Speaker 11: and I don't mean to keep comparing them, but the
Speaker 11: challenges you two key decision makers who don't share the
Speaker 11: interest of everyone else involved. For Netigna, who when this
Speaker 11: conflict ends, he is almost certainly done politically, there will
Speaker 11: be a state investigation that is, by the way, run
Speaker 11: by the Supreme Court of Israel, with whom he has
Speaker 11: not exactly had the best relationship since he tried to
Speaker 11: essentially dismantle their power, and the Court the judiciary, is
Speaker 11: the one who decides how the State Commission of Inquiry runs,
Speaker 11: which will be to investigate everything that's happened in Israel
Speaker 11: that led up to October seventh and the aftermath of
Speaker 11: how it's been prosecuted as well and politically, if he
Speaker 11: agrees to a cease fire, it means that he loses
Speaker 11: the two wildly extreme members of his coalition who have
Speaker 11: been guaranteeing his pathway to power. So this is part
Speaker 11: of putting the interests of his country ahead of his
Speaker 11: own personal interests in central here and thus far not
Speaker 11: something he's been willing to do, though he and Ron
Speaker 11: Dermer and others wrap it in a lot of other language.
Speaker 2: Well, of course, Mara, before the events of this weekend,
Speaker 2: we were focusing our conversation on Israel's preemptive strikes into
Speaker 2: or against Hesbela and others, as they are trying to
Speaker 2: avoid retaliation or intercept retaliation for both Hesbela and Iran.
Speaker 2: For events earlier this summer, the assassinations of Hamas's political
Speaker 2: leader in Tehran and of course a Hesbela commander near Beirut,
Speaker 2: Does that take the Israeli eye off the ball, if
Speaker 2: you will, of those potential threats that could be coming
Speaker 2: in from other Iranian proxies or Iron itself that aren't Hamas.
Speaker 2: How does especially the domestic pressure at home for Netanyahu
Speaker 2: influence what kind of other events could transpire on other borders?
Speaker 11: Well, Listen, all of these events are in one way
Speaker 11: or another interrelated. Getting to a cease fire in Gaza
Speaker 11: will help to reduce the reasons that or what some
Speaker 11: of what is behind Hesbela's attacks on Israel and the
Speaker 11: northern border. It will help to dial that down as
Speaker 11: opposed to dialing it up. And also if you could
Speaker 11: actually go forward with the types of proposal of the
Speaker 11: United States has been working, for example, with the Saudis
Speaker 11: to get to a way forward for the Palestinians, which
Speaker 11: will absolutely be the next steps from the ceasefire. You
Speaker 11: need to have some way for the West Bank to
Speaker 11: restabilize and for Ganza to be built back. You need
Speaker 11: to have other forces around the region come in. They
Speaker 11: will not do that without some agreement from Israel to
Speaker 11: move forward, to begin to discuss the future of a
Speaker 11: Palestinian state, not to agree to one tomorrow, but to
Speaker 11: have some pathway forward that can allow for reforms for
Speaker 11: Palestinians and leaders that will be able to represent them
Speaker 11: going forward. I bring this up in the context of
Speaker 11: your question about the regional conflicts because having Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
Speaker 11: the Cuntrison one way or another, all aligned, as well
Speaker 11: as other countries in the region, will help to push
Speaker 11: back on the threat that Iran poses as well. There's
Speaker 11: elements of the deal the Saudis would strike with the
Speaker 11: United States, that would help Saudi security, help regional security,
Speaker 11: give the United States more strength visa the Iran, and frankly,
Speaker 11: put Israel in a more secure position. So all of
Speaker 11: these elements are interlinked.
Speaker 3: Laura, it's always a real pleasure to have you, Maora Rudman,
Speaker 3: Professor at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia.
Speaker 4: We thank you as always.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Wednesday edition. I know you think it's Tuesday.
Speaker 3: I did that this morning as well on Bloomberg Radio
Speaker 3: with a special greeting to our listeners in Boston, finding
Speaker 3: us now on ninety two nine FM. It's great to
Speaker 3: be part of the conversation, of course in Boston, but
Speaker 3: also on satellite radio and on YouTube, where you can
Speaker 3: find us right now search Bloomberg Business News Live with
Speaker 3: our eyes on the campaign trail as always, and as
Speaker 3: I refer to our listeners in Boston, a little close
Speaker 3: to home. Kamala Harris heading to the Great Seacoast of
Speaker 3: New Hampshire. Yes, there is one Northampton, New Hampshire. God
Speaker 3: imagine what they'll be doing at the Hampton Beach Casino
Speaker 3: ballroom when she rolls out the economic plan.
Speaker 4: That's not her venue.
Speaker 3: She's actually going to do this at a brewery in Northampton,
Speaker 3: New Hampshire. Small business policy plans the theme today. We
Speaker 3: already heard some broad strokes in terms of price gouging
Speaker 3: and the housing market from Kamala Harris. She's going to
Speaker 3: fill in a few more blanks according to the campaign today.
Speaker 3: That happens two forty five pm Eastern times, So that'll
Speaker 3: be in the late edition of Balance of Power when
Speaker 3: we get some details. Donald Trump holding a town hall,
Speaker 3: at least as it's being called, it's a Fox show
Speaker 3: Sean Hannity doing that later on. They're recording it in Harrisonburg,
Speaker 3: Harrisburg rather Pennsylvania, and it airs later tonight also in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3: Tim Walls, he's in Lancaster in Pittsburgh today with campaign events.
Speaker 3: Not a mystery as these two campaigns carve out travel plans.
Speaker 3: Having spent Labor Day in the three Swing states and
Speaker 3: here we are again back in Pennsylvania and in New
Speaker 3: Hampshire too. A lot of questions about campaign resources in
Speaker 3: New Hampshire. We're going to talk in our second hour
Speaker 3: with Governor Chris Sanunu a bit about that. But let's
Speaker 3: dig into the economy here. The plans by both of
Speaker 3: these campaigns that are going to drive voters when they
Speaker 3: hit the polls I'd say in November, but even some
Speaker 3: by mail as soon as this weekend. The current joints
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Global Economy Reporter with an awfully important story today
Speaker 3: on the Trump tax cuts that we're going to get into.
Speaker 4: And it's great to see you.
Speaker 3: Small business a good talker for Kamala Harris getting in
Speaker 3: front of people today. She's talking about incentives for small
Speaker 3: business owners, not necessarily consumer themes that she's been hitting
Speaker 3: like the price of groceries, etc.
Speaker 13: Small business is the backbone of this economy. They're the
Speaker 13: biggest employer of workers in this economy. Small business creation
Speaker 13: has been on a boom over the past few years
Speaker 13: because of the way things have shifted a bit due
Speaker 13: to the pandemic and everything else. So it's probably pretty
Speaker 13: smart to identify that part of the economy for maybe
Speaker 13: offering tax relief and other measures to stoke growth and
Speaker 13: combination there, I should say. Skeptics say, though that small.
Speaker 13: A lot of these small businesses register they start ultimately
Speaker 13: due to turn the profit and how many workers you
Speaker 13: do to keep in the payroll. But you know, it's
Speaker 13: been a good news story over the past few years.
Speaker 3: A tenfold increase in the small business tax deduction for
Speaker 3: startup costs. Bloomberg got hands on some of the finer
Speaker 3: points on the tax proposals here that she'll outline later,
Speaker 3: increasing that deduction from five to fifty thousand dollars. It's
Speaker 3: interesting as she's trying to become more business friendly in
Speaker 3: the face of Donald Trump.
Speaker 13: Isn't it more business friendly because of the feeling she
Speaker 13: might be tougher on bigger businesses for example, higher copper
Speaker 13: tax rate for instance. But it does feed into the
Speaker 13: fiscal story again with both candidates in this case talked
Speaker 13: about Vice President Harris question marks around you know, how
Speaker 13: will it be fun how much of least add to
Speaker 13: the deficit. Some estimates of our economic policy so far
Speaker 13: telling it maybe around two odd trillion mark. That's the
Speaker 13: pen Morton budget model for example, so when you see
Speaker 13: this small business tax measure as well, kind of adds
Speaker 13: the idea that hold on a sect, there's a little
Speaker 13: bit of a bill out of you up here. There's
Speaker 13: going to have to be some offsets made clear for that.
Speaker 7: As well well.
Speaker 4: And that goes for both campaigns. Of course, I talk
Speaker 4: about this a lot.
Speaker 3: Neither campaign is really illustrated how they will pay for
Speaker 3: things outside of very broad strokes. Trump says we'll grow
Speaker 3: out of it. Kamala Harris is going to soak the rich.
Speaker 3: But you need Congress to play along to make both
Speaker 3: of these happen. Certainly when it comes to allocating dollars,
Speaker 3: and you're looking at a really important item today when
Speaker 3: it comes to the Trump tax cuts. One of the
Speaker 3: most red stories today on the terminal Trump tax cuts
Speaker 3: would cost more than almost all federal agencies. Ten point
Speaker 3: five trillion dollars you write, and over a decade would
Speaker 3: exceed the combined budgets of every domestic federal agency.
Speaker 4: How is that conservative?
Speaker 13: Yeah, So, along with my colleague Eric Walston, a rough
Speaker 13: tally of what they're talking about in the Trump campaign.
Speaker 13: As you mentioned, there is the five odd trillion for
Speaker 13: extending the tax cuts three odd trillion for child tax
Speaker 13: credit that is running mayjd Events has talked about. Then
Speaker 13: there's the rest like the no tax on tips, lower
Speaker 13: corporate tax, social security exemption. Point is, it's adding up
Speaker 13: with some pretty big numbers there at a time when
Speaker 13: people are warning about the fiscal trajectory, saying the deaths
Speaker 13: that needs to be rained in and it needs to
Speaker 13: be ruining now. Of course, the Trump campaign that makes
Speaker 13: it very clear these measures are pro growth, will generate
Speaker 13: revenue for the government, and it will be offset in
Speaker 13: that way. But there are plenty of analysts in the
Speaker 13: middle who are warning both about this policy and the
Speaker 13: physical trajectory in general, saying, hang on, you're going to
Speaker 13: have to find some savings here or the very least
Speaker 13: offsets to get things back on track.
Speaker 3: So is this debate next Tuesday night going to be
Speaker 3: a contest of who can outspend the other.
Speaker 13: Well, the gap is still pretty large between both. I mean,
Speaker 13: as I say, you can there's a couple of trillion
Speaker 13: adding up on the Harrier side, but the trillions are
Speaker 13: really adding up in the Trump campaign when it comes
Speaker 13: to where the ticket stuff are. And that's what the
Speaker 13: analysts are saying early in this campaign, a lot depends
Speaker 13: though what shape will Congress be in, what will Congress
Speaker 13: pass I mean, there's a million in one way somebody
Speaker 13: whaler will not be passed yet. So but in terms
Speaker 13: of campaign sort of conjecture on the road, the big
Speaker 13: ticketself is mostly falling on the Trump side of things right.
Speaker 3: Now, by the scale of trillions. Remarkable and a great work.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us always. It's one
Speaker 3: of the smartest we have in the bureau. Into current
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Global Economy reporter. Find this story on the terminal now.
Speaker 3: It's a good read, and there's a lot more information
Speaker 3: that we didn't have a chance to get to. This
Speaker 3: is the kind of coverage that we promise here on Bloomberg. Yes,
Speaker 3: we talk about the horse race, but the policy proposals
Speaker 3: here that in many cases are leaving voters wanting or
Speaker 3: something that we're exploring with a very fine point here.
Speaker 3: We'll have more on this, by the way, Kamala Harris
Speaker 3: again speaks a few hours from now, Donald Trump, I
Speaker 3: suspect will be asked about his plans when he talks
Speaker 3: to Fox and Sean Hannity a little.
Speaker 4: Bit later on again much like yesterday.
Speaker 3: This is all playing out against the backdrop of what's
Speaker 3: taking place in Israel right now, and none of this
Speaker 3: is coming easily as negotiators work toward a cease fire,
Speaker 3: even as Benjamin Neett Yaho prepares to address the public,
Speaker 3: He's due to give a speech right now. In fact,
Speaker 3: I've got my eyes on the headlines here on the
Speaker 3: terminal to see if he's going to make any news.
Speaker 3: Clearly not inspired to move forward on a ceasefire with
Speaker 3: the terms that are being put forth, including a withdrawal
Speaker 3: from the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border. Now, we
Speaker 3: can talk about this from a lot of different angles.
Speaker 3: We've brought on military strategists, we've brought on political experts.
Speaker 3: Today we want to bring on a peacemaker, and this
Speaker 3: is an important conversation. Giddy Grinstein is the former secretary
Speaker 3: and coordinator of the Israeli delegation for the negotiations with
Speaker 3: the PLO in nineteen ninety nine through two thousand and one. Giddy,
Speaker 3: it's great to have you here. I appreciate your time today,
Speaker 3: and as someone who has sat at the negotiating table,
Speaker 3: I wonder what your advice is for benjaminett Yaho as
Speaker 3: he prepares to speak.
Speaker 14: Wants a deal or not. If he wants a deal,
Speaker 14: he has to rely on the Katari and the Egyptian
Speaker 14: intermediaries because they have the leverage on Hamas. Egypt because
Speaker 14: it controls the border and Kantar because of the financing,
Speaker 14: and because of the fact that it hosts the Harama's
Speaker 14: leadership in Doha. Those are the two leverages that Israel
Speaker 14: has from the diplomatic side. On the ground, I think
Speaker 14: that Hamas has put Israel in a bind because Israel's
Speaker 14: maneuvering on the ground to push Hamas is actually led
Speaker 14: to the death of a number of hostages. So Israel
Speaker 14: is now extremely cautious in terms of being able to
Speaker 14: use its military power on the ground. But really it
Speaker 14: comes down to the politics. Doesnt Ania want a deal
Speaker 14: or not? A deal like that may compromise his coalition
Speaker 14: with the far right parties. It may also lead him
Speaker 14: down a path of additional, very difficult political decisions which
Speaker 14: may destabilize his coalition and effectively bring his tenure to
Speaker 14: an end.
Speaker 3: That's my next question. Does a cease fire deal represent
Speaker 3: the end of Benjamin Netnya who is political career.
Speaker 14: Not necessarily. I mean, let's speak first about the current
Speaker 14: tenure and the current government, and then about his political career. Ideally,
Speaker 14: I believe that natania would have wanted to end this
Speaker 14: current tenure with some sort of a move where he
Speaker 14: does what is necessary in order to allow for what
Speaker 14: is called the Saudi Deal to unfold. He goes he
Speaker 14: at that moment he says when he says whatever needs
Speaker 14: to be said about the Palestinians, about the political horizon,
Speaker 14: that includes some sort of very uncommitting statement about Palestinian statehood.
Speaker 14: At that point, he loses the far right factions of
Speaker 14: his coalition. He goes to election as the person that
Speaker 14: brought the normalization with Saudi, the person that fought hard
Speaker 14: with the Palestinians, relentless fighting than Hamas and was still
Speaker 14: nonetheless able to bring a normalization deal with Saudi, which
Speaker 14: is really a tremendous historical achievement that I think is
Speaker 14: the ideal scenario in which Nataniao goes to election. Of course,
Speaker 14: if he ends up being it ends up being when
Speaker 14: President Trump is elected and is the incoming president already
Speaker 14: in the White House. That for Nataniao is the ultimate scenario.
Speaker 3: Okay, that said, what role should and what role is
Speaker 3: Egypt playing in this process?
Speaker 14: So Egypt has been the anchor of the stability in
Speaker 14: the region for almost fifty years since the nineteen seventies.
Speaker 14: Effectively the nineteen seventy three war which led to the
Speaker 14: nineteen seventy four disengagement agreements, which led to the nineteen
Speaker 14: seventy eight nineteen seventy nine Camp David, the courts and
Speaker 14: the Israel Egypt Peace Treaty has turned Egypt into an
Speaker 14: anchor of stability in the region. Of course, there are
Speaker 14: a lot of qualifications around that, and not been as
Speaker 14: stable and quiet as everybody would have wanted. But generally speaking,
Speaker 14: almost everything that Israel was able to do in Gaza
Speaker 14: and with the Palestinians in Gaza, including since Hamas took
Speaker 14: took over Gaza in June two thousand and seven, has
Speaker 14: been through the Egyptians and with the Egyptians later on
Speaker 14: also the Katarists came on board. We have to understand
Speaker 14: that Israel and Hamas and I repeat Hamas, not the
Speaker 14: Palestinian authority, have a legacy of back channel negotiations, agreement
Speaker 14: and understandings that included prisoner exchange, including opening the border,
Speaker 14: including all sorts of security arrangements. So that has been
Speaker 14: sort of kind of working through the Egyptian channel for
Speaker 14: many years until now. Obviously everything collapsed on October seven,
Speaker 14: but until now Egypt has been sort of a cornerstone
Speaker 14: for all the arrangements in the region, and over and
Speaker 14: over again, whenever Israel and Amas sort of deteriorated into
Speaker 14: an exchange of military blows, Hamas shooting rockets or sending
Speaker 14: terrorists into Israel and Israel attacking and retaliation in Gaza,
Speaker 14: it was the Egyptians who were able to stabilize the
Speaker 14: situation and bring back the ceasefire.
Speaker 4: You mentioned, Getty.
Speaker 3: The hostages six hostages found dead, freshly assassinated as the
Speaker 3: IDF moved into rescue them over the weekend. Of course,
Speaker 3: they included one American. There seems to be confusion over
Speaker 3: what impact this will have on the negotiating process. If
Speaker 3: you ask the Biden administration, they say it heightens the
Speaker 3: urgency and need for a ceasefire. Benjamin Etna, who seems
Speaker 3: to be on the other side of that coin, it proves,
Speaker 3: he says that Hamas cannot be trusted.
Speaker 4: What do you think.
Speaker 14: I think obviously those two forces are working in opposite direction.
Speaker 14: On atanial there are tremendous pressures from the right not
Speaker 14: to do a hostage deal, or at least to put
Speaker 14: conditions and terms for a hostage deal that would make
Speaker 14: such a deal effectively impossible. They don't want a ceasefire,
Speaker 14: they don't want any kind of a political process. They're
Speaker 14: very concerned that even if Hamas is defeated and removed
Speaker 14: out of power, that Gaza and the West Bank will
Speaker 14: be unified again as a single territorial unit, what we
Speaker 14: used to call a single territorial unit, which then would
Speaker 14: open the way for the reinstitution of the Oslock courts.
Speaker 14: All these are nightmare scenarios for the right, for the
Speaker 14: right wing parties, and that's why they understand that if
Speaker 14: the hostage deal doesn't happen, none of the other things
Speaker 14: can happen. On the other side, you have very powerful
Speaker 14: factions in Israel, including the military, the defense establishment, and
Speaker 14: many others that are saying, we have to do the
Speaker 14: deal now, we deal with the consequences later. Today, the
Speaker 14: Chief of Staff, the commander of the Israeli military said,
Speaker 14: every hostage that comes back alive today would have decades
Speaker 14: of life. Every terrorist that will go back to Gos
Speaker 14: that will eventually be killed. So basically, this is his
Speaker 14: way of saying, let's do the deal, let's move on.
Speaker 14: We have to remember also that the fact that these
Speaker 14: hostages are in Gaza, it really compromises the ability of
Speaker 14: the military to maneuver freely in Gaza and to carry
Speaker 14: out military operations and hamas has been.
Speaker 7: Quite a mark.
Speaker 3: Sorry, I'm out of time, Giddy Grinstein, Thank you so much, Giddy.
Speaker 3: I apologize for interrupting. Thanks for listening to the Balance
Speaker 3: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't
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Speaker 3: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.