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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Proud Otto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: The market's finally tuned to react to any piece of

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Speaker 2: economic data, including the Jolt data from this morning, as

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Speaker 2: we await the jobs report on Friday, all of it, Joe,

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Speaker 2: so that it can paint a clear picture of what

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Speaker 2: may happen with the trajectory of monetary policy, what the

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Speaker 2: Federal Reserve will actually do at its meeting later this month.

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Speaker 2: At the same time, though, here in Washington, we have

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Speaker 2: major questions about fiscal policy, and we're getting more details

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Speaker 2: and as to what fiscal policy could look like under

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Speaker 2: both of the potential presidencies of Harris and Trump two

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Speaker 2: point them.

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Speaker 3: Get ready for a lot of talk about tax cuts

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Speaker 3: and tax policy here, maybe tax hikes in some areas.

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris looking to hike the corporate tax, which Wall

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Speaker 3: Street has an allergy to inherently.

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump, though, was talking about making permanent.

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Speaker 3: Of course, the fairly popular on Wall Street twenty seventeen

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Speaker 3: tax cuts, and the new analysis from Goldman Sachs paints

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Speaker 3: a pretty ugly picture about what that would mean for

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Speaker 3: deficit spending. Try ten and a half trillion dollars over

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Speaker 3: a decade technically, as we understand it now, and we

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Speaker 3: do need more details on both campaigns plans. Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: is outspending Kamala Harris at this.

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Speaker 2: Stage, although it is worth pointing out she would like

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Speaker 2: to do some tax cutting of her own. She's going

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Speaker 2: to outline today she would like to reduce the number

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Speaker 2: or the amount of taxes that small businesses have to

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Speaker 2: pay by expanding the small business tax credit.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to hear from her a round two

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Speaker 3: forty five Eastern time from the seacoast of New Hampshire,

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Speaker 3: and along for the ride is Congressman Gabe Amo, a

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Speaker 3: Democrat from Rhode Island who brought an historic candidacy to

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Speaker 3: the Ocean state, the first black member of Congress in

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Speaker 3: the state of Rhode Island and now on the road

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Speaker 3: for the Harris campaign. Congressman welcome. You have a good sense,

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Speaker 3: I think of the audience listening in to this argument

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Speaker 3: over taxes and the economy, because the guys hanging around

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Speaker 3: Cascerta Pizza in Providence have a lot in common with

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Speaker 3: the guys hanging around the Puritan Backroom in Manchester, all

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Speaker 3: of whom are going to be listening to this today.

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Speaker 3: And it becomes almost a question, Congressman.

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Speaker 4: Of who do you believe? Who do you trust.

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Speaker 3: More with the economy, And Kamala Harris says it is her.

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Speaker 3: Despite the track record that Donald Trump has to put

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Speaker 3: on the table, how does she appeal to the folks

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Speaker 3: at the Puritan Backroom and Cacerta Pizza who want to

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Speaker 3: know if their taxes are going up?

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Speaker 5: Well, first off, thanks for having me, and I am

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Speaker 5: glad that you are displaying your Rhode Island knowledge of Cacerto,

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Speaker 5: which is a great institution on Federal Hill right here

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Speaker 5: in Providence. And I think ultimately this comes down to

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Speaker 5: who do you think has your best interests in mind?

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Speaker 5: Who do you think wants opportunity for the many and

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Speaker 5: not the few? And frankly, the proof is in the pudding.

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Speaker 5: We have seen with the Trump tax cuts, the concentration

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Speaker 5: of wealth at the top. Frankly, the middle class saw

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Speaker 5: higher taxes while with this opportunity agenda that Vice President

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Speaker 5: Harris is putting forward. The announcement today is an example

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Speaker 5: of that, twenty five million new business registrations as the

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Speaker 5: goal working towards that startup expense, those expenses being deductible

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Speaker 5: at a higher rate tenfold, fifty thousand dollars, where we

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Speaker 5: know a cost on average of forty thousand dollars to

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Speaker 5: start a new business. So again the question is who

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Speaker 5: is fighting for you and those in your lives so

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Speaker 5: that everybody can have opportunity.

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Speaker 2: Well, Congressman, does there have to be a certain degree

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Speaker 2: of honesty here about whether Kamala Harris can fight that

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Speaker 2: fight alone. She's not going to be able to institute

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Speaker 2: this policy or any others regarding the revenue spending of

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Speaker 2: this government without Congress control. Right, even if you and

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Speaker 2: your colleagues can win back the majority, it's not looking

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Speaker 2: as optimistic perhaps in the Senate.

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Speaker 5: Well, look, I am an optimist, and you know the

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Speaker 5: only poll that matters is that on election day, and

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Speaker 5: so we're going to be working hard. I am cautiously

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Speaker 5: optimistic that Speaker Hakeem Jeffries will be something that comes

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Speaker 5: to fruition. I am also confident that we will be

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Speaker 5: able to hold the Senate. Now, that's going to take

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Speaker 5: a lot of work, and I think Vice President Harris's

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Speaker 5: presence on the ticket has buoyed our potential. And I

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Speaker 5: feel very strongly that the American people when presented with

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Speaker 5: these options of investing in an opportunity agenda we heard

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Speaker 5: previously last month on housing and ensuring that everybody has

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Speaker 5: the opportunity to own a home, today, on growing small

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Speaker 5: businesses and cutting red tape versus a double down on

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Speaker 5: trickle down economics making permanent which has been one of

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Speaker 5: the biggest increases in income disparity and wealth disparity in

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Speaker 5: our country. That's the choice that Americans have, and I

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Speaker 5: believe that most of them will SiGe for everybody having

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Speaker 5: a seat at the table and growing their pie.

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Speaker 3: Congressman, we'd downed. I believe it's sixty two days to

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Speaker 3: that final pull you refer to in November. How important

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Speaker 3: is it for Kamala Harris? And I'll hear from all

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Speaker 3: the Harris supporters on Twitter about this. We're asking the

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Speaker 3: same about both campaigns. Does she have to explain detail

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Speaker 3: how she's going to pay for all of her proposals?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think that's part of the process, and we

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Speaker 5: are hearing that. You know, I think over time again,

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Speaker 5: this campaign, as you noted, has sixty two days left,

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Speaker 5: sixty two days to make a case to the American

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Speaker 5: people and explain what we'll do regarding taxes, making sure

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Speaker 5: that there is true tax fairness, that there is an

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Speaker 5: opportunity for those companies who aren't paying their fair share

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Speaker 5: to contribute in a fair, reasonable way to the strength

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Speaker 5: and growth of our economy so that everybody can thrive.

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Speaker 5: So those explanations are underway, and that is in contrast

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Speaker 5: to what the former president has talked about in terms

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Speaker 5: of giveaways to industry for in exchange for support. That

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Speaker 5: is not how this economy is meant to work. And

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Speaker 5: I believe in the fairness that the Vice President will

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Speaker 5: pursue what their opportunity agenda will lay that out very clearly.

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Speaker 2: Of course, sir, it's not just a question of the

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Speaker 2: kind of economic policy she'll pursue, but foreign policy as well,

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Speaker 2: especially in light of the developments over the last few

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Speaker 2: days in the Middle East, the death of six hostages

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Speaker 2: that were being held by Hamas, ongoing pressure on the

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Speaker 2: net and Yahoo government and Hamas to agree to a

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Speaker 2: cease fire. I ask you this, knowing you sit on

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Speaker 2: the Foreign Affairs Committee, what does Kamala Harris need to

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Speaker 2: say to the American people about the policy she will

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Speaker 2: pursue when it comes to Israel and Gaza.

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Speaker 5: I think what you'll hear from the Vice President is

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Speaker 5: a clear and focused set of goals around achieving peace,

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Speaker 5: ultimately a two state solution, but in the near term,

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Speaker 5: making sure that we get the negotiated end to hostilities

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Speaker 5: and get hostages back, as well as provide a robust

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Speaker 5: set of humanitarian responses to a situation that has turned

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Speaker 5: into a cycle of violence where there is a deficit

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Speaker 5: of hope. And so we'll continue to hear from the

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Speaker 5: Vice President and in her capacity, as you know, she

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Speaker 5: has traveled around the world that with hundreds of world leaders,

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Speaker 5: executed a diplomatic agenda on behalf of the Biden Harris administration.

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Speaker 5: So she is one of the most experienced people to

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Speaker 5: step into the Oval office when she wins on a

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Speaker 5: foreign policy from a foreign policy perspective, so I expect

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Speaker 5: her to lay out a continued commitment to diplomatic resolutions

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Speaker 5: to tragic situations like one we're seeing in Gaza.

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Speaker 3: Well, Congressmanamo, we don't need to tell you that the

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Speaker 3: issue surrounding Israel specifically has been a major point of

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Speaker 3: concern for progressive Democrats who have been disappointed with the

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Speaker 3: Biden administration's approach to helping to protect civilian lives, for

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Speaker 3: instance in Gaza. Will progressives be disappointed all over again

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Speaker 3: when they realize that Kamala Harris has the same policy.

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Speaker 5: Well, I see that Democrats by and large are excited

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Speaker 5: about Vice President Harris, and I think they will see

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Speaker 5: that in her approach, which will be that that she

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Speaker 5: is driving is going to be about finding solutions, bringing

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Speaker 5: people together. You know, there's a lot of divisiveness on

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Speaker 5: this issue. This is not a political football. This is

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Speaker 5: about lives. This is about people who are suffering, the poor,

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Speaker 5: hostage families who are you know, desperately seeking answers, and

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Speaker 5: those who have lost so many in Gaza, so many

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Speaker 5: Palestinians who for no fault of their own other than

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Speaker 5: the birth lottery, are suffering. And so I think you

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Speaker 5: will see a compassion from her that is consistent with

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Speaker 5: our values, and we'll really speak to all of the

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Speaker 5: concerns across the broad and big tent of the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 2: And finally, Congressman, as you join us today from Rhode

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Speaker 2: Island with Harris spending time in New Hampshire, if you

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Speaker 2: could just speak to the state of play in New

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Speaker 2: England overall.

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Speaker 6: Is New Hampshire an area in.

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Speaker 2: Which this campaign needs to devote time and resources, is

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Speaker 2: actually something that's going to be a real contest in

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Speaker 2: this cycle.

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Speaker 5: Well, look, nothing is a given in politics, and we

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Speaker 5: were going to be working hard in New Hampshire. In fact,

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Speaker 5: I've been there previously this cycle, spend time in Exeter

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Speaker 5: and Manchester and conquered and will go go back to

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Speaker 5: make the case to my New England neighbors that we

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Speaker 5: have to work hard. This is not an election that

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Speaker 5: is going to be a blowout. It's going to be close.

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Speaker 5: We are the underdog. The Vice President is the underdog,

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Speaker 5: make no mistake about it. But with all of the

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Speaker 5: work that we will do, New England will go blue

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Speaker 5: and we will make sure that to send a clear

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Speaker 5: message that we want an agenda focused on protecting our freedoms,

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Speaker 5: expanding economic opportunity, and making sure this is democracy can

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Speaker 5: stand for the betterment of all Americans, especially all of

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Speaker 5: the folks that I share New England with here in

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Speaker 5: Rhode Island.

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Speaker 2: All right, Democratic Congressman gave Amo of Rhode Island, thank

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Speaker 2: you so much for joining us today, sir.

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Speaker 6: We appreciate your time.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: then royd Oto with the Bloomberg Business at You can

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Speaker 2: We want to stay now in New England and New

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Speaker 2: Hampshire specifically. We're joined now by the Republican Governor of

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire, Chris Sanunu, Governor. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV

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Speaker 2: and Radio. It's always great to have you, sir. I'd

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Speaker 2: like to ask you the same kind of question I

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Speaker 2: just asked of the Congressman. Polling is now showing that

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Speaker 2: the map is wider in terms of the swing states

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Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris than it was for Joe Biden. The

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Speaker 2: co chair of the RNC, Laura Trump, told me just

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Speaker 2: last week they're looking to spend more money in states

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Speaker 2: like North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Would you be advising the

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Speaker 2: Republican Party the campaign specifically to waste precious time and

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Speaker 2: money in New Hampshire this time?

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Speaker 7: Well, without a doubt.

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Speaker 8: I mean, look, if you look at the electoral map,

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Speaker 8: a lot of these swing states are going to be close.

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Speaker 8: New Hampshire is going to be very close. But if

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Speaker 8: if Kamala Harris were to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,

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Speaker 8: the victory for Trump is North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire. Right,

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Speaker 8: So when you got to do the electoral math on this,

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Speaker 8: and yeah, we might only have four electoral votes, but

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Speaker 8: there's no doubt it's going to come into play. And

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Speaker 8: this is a state that Trump only lost by two

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Speaker 8: thousand votes. Two thousand votes that's nothing back in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 8: And I think a lot of us agree that twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty four is going to look a lot more like

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Speaker 8: twenty sixteen in terms of the race.

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Speaker 7: So I have no doubt that they will be putting

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Speaker 7: resources here.

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Speaker 8: Obviously, the former vice president thinks she needs to spend

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Speaker 8: I mean, the current Vice president, Kamala Harris needs to

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Speaker 8: think that she needs to spend time here to earn

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Speaker 8: and still have a chance to win the state. She's

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Speaker 8: coming today, and I think you're going to see Trump

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Speaker 8: coming and spending money here as well.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Governor, it's good to see you. This is the

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Speaker 4: kind of stuff we live for.

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Speaker 3: We just talked to a Harris surrogate, a Democratic member

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Speaker 3: of the House of Representatives from New England, and it's

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Speaker 3: a great opportunity to ask you, as Kaylee said, some

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Speaker 3: of the same questions, to get a sense of where

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Speaker 3: your head is. We associate you with traditional dare I say,

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Speaker 3: old fashioned Republican conservative values, and I wonder what your

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Speaker 3: thought is when it comes to some of the deficit

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Speaker 3: spending that we're hearing about from both campaigns. The analysis

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Speaker 3: from Goldman Sachs makes it pretty clear that the deficit

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Speaker 3: spending that Bloomberg estimates with top ten trillion dollars over

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Speaker 3: a decade to making permanent the Trump tax cuts without

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Speaker 3: weigh any other benefits of his tax proposal. Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 3: I believe is in the area of two trillion dollars

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Speaker 3: in deficit spending, with at least the amount that we

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Speaker 3: have heard. And I know that you're not about to

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Speaker 3: vote for the Harris campaign. Are you concerned about ballooning deficits.

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Speaker 3: As a conservative sitting in New Hampshire under a Trump

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Speaker 3: two point zero, I'm.

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Speaker 8: Concerned about a blooming deficits in America, regardless of who's end.

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Speaker 8: There's no question about that. I mean, let's be honest.

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Speaker 8: Republicans in the House and the Senate have not held

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Speaker 8: up the conservative fiscal values that the Ronald Reagan is

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Speaker 8: and the Christanu News really champion.

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Speaker 7: So it's not just about Trump. It's about Congress.

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Speaker 8: It's about actually a leadership on the Republican side in

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Speaker 8: the Senate, in the House saying hey, here's a proposal

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Speaker 8: for bounds budget, here's how you do it, here's the

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Speaker 8: tough decisions to get it done now. Under the potential

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Speaker 8: Harris administration, as with Biden, it's been an just an

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Speaker 8: economic disaster on the macro scale, but more importantly, it's

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Speaker 8: been a disaster on the microeconomic scale, being the rent,

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Speaker 8: the cost of living, the fact people can't afford their

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Speaker 8: electricity bills, they panic about how they're gonna put food

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Speaker 8: on the table. I mean that those are real issues.

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Speaker 8: Inflation isn't three point nine percent. That's not how people

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Speaker 8: look at it. Inflation is more like twenty five to

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Speaker 8: thirty five percent compounded since the last administration. And that's

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Speaker 8: what people going to look at. I could afford things

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Speaker 8: four years ago, I can't afford them now. They're gonna

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Speaker 8: go to the ballot box and they're going to vote

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Speaker 8: on those those issues of that financial stress, that anxiety,

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Speaker 8: if you will, that stuff that keeps them up at night.

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Speaker 8: That's what drives a voter. And that ten to twelve

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Speaker 8: percent of swing voters that are still out there, that's

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Speaker 8: far and away the number one issue. Not so much

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Speaker 8: on the macroeconomic scale. I get nervous about that, but

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Speaker 8: day to day, family to family, it's all about how

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Speaker 8: we're going to pay our bills. And who's the agent

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Speaker 8: of change, clearly not the current administration. Right, You're just

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Speaker 8: going to get the same, if not worse in terms

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Speaker 8: of economic policies, price controls, and all that nonsense. But

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Speaker 8: the agent of change to actually make people's lives more affordable,

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Speaker 8: and that's going to be Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Well, governor, is that really true though? If he's talking

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Speaker 2: about blanket tariffs on everything that the US brings in

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Speaker 2: perhaps sixty percent on goods from China, the world's second

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Speaker 2: largest economy. Any economists would tell you that is inflationary policy.

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Speaker 2: If this is really about the cost of goods, that

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean they're going lower under Trump.

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Speaker 7: Yeah. No, look, I completely agree.

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Speaker 8: I don't love the tariff policies that he's putting forward,

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Speaker 8: But again that's strategy, right, that's kind of the leverage

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Speaker 8: you want to use from America's position as the world

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Speaker 8: leader and as the economic leader in the world to

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Speaker 8: force better decisions and better results out of China and

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Speaker 8: ultimately even Europe and the rest of Asia. So again

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Speaker 8: that Biden administration has ignored it. Right, they haven't done

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Speaker 8: anything on any of these issues. They're letting China grow

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Speaker 8: more powerful to understand what's going on and these international economies,

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Speaker 8: and to kind of threaten those terrorists, to threaten some

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Speaker 8: sanctions and things of that nature, to gear up better

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Speaker 8: international negotiations on what you know, ultimately what not just

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Speaker 8: the terrorists, but what other regulatory barriers should be there,

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Speaker 8: so they're not stealing our ip and all of that.

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Speaker 8: I'll say this, none of that's going to matter when

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Speaker 8: it comes to the vote.

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Speaker 7: It's really not.

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Speaker 8: When it comes to whether people vote for Trump or

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Speaker 8: Harris that's kind of a thirty thousand foot level issue.

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Speaker 8: People are going to vote on their anxieties. It's the border,

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Speaker 8: but not about the eleven million illegals coming in. That's

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Speaker 8: bad enough, I mean, we can't stand that. But it's

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Speaker 8: the drugs they're bringing in. It's the human trafficking issue.

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Speaker 8: Right to take those macro issues and have a candidate

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Speaker 8: and that's what you're going to hopefully see in the debate.

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Speaker 7: These candidates bring it down to a real.

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Speaker 8: Level of what parents are struggling about and what parents

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Speaker 8: are driving, you know, their anxieties on if you will,

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Speaker 8: on the on cost of living and drugs.

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Speaker 7: How it affects their families.

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Speaker 8: That's what's going to really be the selling point that

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Speaker 8: that I think Trump has to get by and kind

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Speaker 8: of sell to the people if you will, because I

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Speaker 8: do think that Republicans have the right answers.

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Speaker 7: They have real results. It's not just hey, I'm not

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Speaker 7: Joe Biden.

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Speaker 8: I mean that's literally all the Kamala Harris campaign has

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Speaker 8: right now. That's not enough to cross the finish line

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Speaker 8: in these swing states come November fifth.

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Speaker 3: Well, she's proposing some small business tax incentives in your

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Speaker 3: state today, governor, which.

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Speaker 4: Is why she's gone there.

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Speaker 3: But the analysis that we got from Alec Phillips at

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Speaker 3: Goldman Sachs does leave us scratching our heads a bit.

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Speaker 3: He estimates if Donald Trump wins the hit to growth

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Speaker 3: from the tariffs we're discussing right now, assuming they're twenty

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Speaker 3: percentage points across the board, and tighter immigration policy, would

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Speaker 3: outweigh the positive fiscal impulse and result in something in

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Speaker 3: the area of a half percentage point of GDP. If

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Speaker 3: the experts on Wall Street are telling us that deficit

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Speaker 3: spending will increase inflation and that this Trump plan will

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Speaker 3: slow economic growth, how does that help anybody with their

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Speaker 3: anxiety about high prices?

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Speaker 8: Because Kamala Harris is proposing price controls which would absolutely

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Speaker 8: crush the economy, which would absolutely crush any sense of entrepreneurship,

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Speaker 8: would absolutely crush the stock market, reduce.

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Speaker 7: Any sense of Oh.

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Speaker 8: And then you add on the that we're going to

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Speaker 8: taxi on unrealized gains, right, that crushes the stock market.

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Speaker 8: Right That basically says anyone who's making major investments to

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Speaker 8: companies that ultimately grow and employ people, that all comes

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Speaker 8: to a screeching hall. Kamala Harris's policies, She had an

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Speaker 8: opportunity to actually go to the middle, but she went

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Speaker 8: even more extreme than Joe Biden. So Joe Biden has

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Speaker 8: in his administration has completely destroyed this economy and people's

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Speaker 8: ability to afford anything. She goes even further left than that,

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Speaker 8: that government is going to can now control prices and

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Speaker 8: destroy any sense of entrepreneurship or innovation in any of

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Speaker 8: these new markets, allowing just basically a couple of giant

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Speaker 8: companies to control things, and it actually ends up in

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Speaker 8: causing a massive reverberation in a negative way throughout this

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Speaker 8: entire economy. So, I mean, the the scary point that

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Speaker 8: you're not bringing up in that article doesn't address is

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Speaker 8: the fact that the Democrats, and they're not even Democrat policies,

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Speaker 8: they're extreme liberal policies, would be devastating to the average

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Speaker 8: American in terms of what they can afford.

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Speaker 2: Governor, I'd like to ask you about a well read

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Speaker 2: piece today, and it's Jonathan Martin's new column in Politico magazine.

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Speaker 2: The headline reads as follows, If Republicans want to win,

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Speaker 2: they need Trump to lose big. It's this notion that

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Speaker 2: members of your party at least off the record, are

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Speaker 2: suggesting it, Actually, we would be net beneficial in the

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Speaker 2: medium term. Shall we say, for Donald Trump to lose

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Speaker 2: this election, what do you think about that idea?

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Speaker 6: Would it be better for the party?

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Speaker 7: No, of course not.

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Speaker 8: Look so, with all due respect, of course, anytime you

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Speaker 8: have a president on office, the opposite party has an

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Speaker 8: opportunity in the midterm elections.

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Speaker 7: That's been tried and true for one hundred years.

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Speaker 8: Doesn't mean it's an automatic win for them, but you

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Speaker 8: know that typically is just how it works. With all

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Speaker 8: due respect to Jonathan, I love the guy, but he's

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Speaker 8: not saying anything that is really news and other than

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Speaker 8: the fact that if he says that party insiders. Look,

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Speaker 8: I hate to tell you, I'm a governor. I'm a

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Speaker 8: pretty popular governor, and I'm kind of on the inside,

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Speaker 8: and I talk to other governors, I talk to other

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Speaker 8: politicians all the time.

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Speaker 7: Nobody's talking about that.

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Speaker 8: No, no, not at all, Because what you know, what matters,

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Speaker 8: what's going to get America in a better place down

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Speaker 8: the road.

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Speaker 7: Results matter, and the.

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Speaker 8: Trump administration as an administration can start delivering real results,

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Speaker 8: bringing costs to living down, trying to deal with the

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Speaker 8: drug crisis, the border crisis, and if you get those results,

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Speaker 8: that's a huge win for Republicans that want to run

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Speaker 8: in twenty twenty six or even twenty twenty eight. So no,

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Speaker 8: I disagree with the premise completely. I do believe results matter,

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Speaker 8: and I can honestly tell you no one's talking about

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Speaker 8: that on the inside of the political bubble, so to say,

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Speaker 8: everybody is kind of galvanizing around making sure we get

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Speaker 8: a Republican ticket. And look, whether you like Trump or not,

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Speaker 8: what you get with Trump is a Republican administration, a

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Speaker 8: new Republican head of the EPA. The current head of

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Speaker 8: the EPA is an absolute disaster, a new Republican head

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Speaker 8: of dot, a new Republican head of Education, all these

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Speaker 8: departments that make rules and a lot of the processes

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Speaker 8: that all of us have to live by. So that

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Speaker 8: Republican administration is going to be a huge win for America.

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Speaker 8: Even if you don't like the way Trump, you know,

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Speaker 8: acts and what he says. I don't like any of that,

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Speaker 8: but boy, that that change in whole holistic style out

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Speaker 8: of d C is going to be hugely beneficial for

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Speaker 8: this country. I mean, walk in any walk into any

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Speaker 8: building in Washington, DC.

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Speaker 7: Right now, nobody's there. They all work remotely.

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Speaker 8: The federal government works at a snail's pace, at a

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Speaker 8: snail's pace, because nobody actually comes to work, right It's

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Speaker 8: it's incredible what the Biden administration has done to d C,

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Speaker 8: bringing the whole process to gridlock. So you're not just

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Speaker 8: voting for Trump, You're voting for a whole change in

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Speaker 8: an approach to government where again, you as the individual

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Speaker 8: come first. States rights matter, local individual control is actually important.

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Speaker 7: Again, those are the things I live in Washington.

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Speaker 3: I was in traffic for over an hour this morning.

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Speaker 3: I think nobody is coming to work down here. But

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Speaker 3: you've probably saw your name in this column before we

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Speaker 3: let you go. Consider the governors, Glenn Youngkins, the lobbyists,

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Speaker 3: well maybe the reporters too, Brian Kemp and yes, New

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Speaker 3: Hampshire's Chris sanunuw it says, would all be prime targets

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Speaker 3: for Senate Republicans. I thought you already decided that was

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Speaker 3: a bad idea, that nothing gets done here.

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Speaker 8: Uh you mean in terms of me right now, I

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Speaker 8: have no interest in running for the the US Senate.

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Speaker 8: Oh no, nothing does get done in DC. It's incredibly frustrating.

439
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 8: Governors get stuff done, we get results, we stand accountable,

440
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 8: we stand behind the wins and the losses and and

441
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 8: that's what that's what good government's all about. So No,

442
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 8: I was once ranked, you know, the most of it.

443
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 8: We had ranking of the most efficient government in the

444
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 8: country here in New Hampshire, which is like being the

445
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 8: best surfer in Kansas.

446
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 7: I get it.

447
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,880
Speaker 8: But yeah, it is something that we need to take

448
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 8: pride in and compared to d C is just a

449
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:50,719
Speaker 8: it's a it's been an epic disaster.

450
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 7: So no, thank you. I've done my four terms.

451
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 8: We go off into the private sector and happy to

452
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 8: help anybody learn how to win races on the private

453
00:22:58,119 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 8: side of things.

454
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 3: That that I can just think of the conversations we'll

455
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 3: be able to have when he's out of office. Keley, Governor,

456
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 3: it's great to see you. We invoked the Puritan's back

457
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 3: room before you came on the air. Say hi to

458
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: everybody for us in Manchester. Chris Nunu, of course, the

459
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 3: governor of New Hampshire.

460
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

461
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and Thenroudoto

462
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App, listen on demand wherever you

463
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

464
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 4: We carry on here the Wednesday edition of Balance of

465
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 4: Power Boy. This week is moving quick.

466
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 3: I actually thought, like you, it was Tuesday earlier, coming

467
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 3: off the long holiday weekend. Kamala Harris, as you just learned,

468
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 3: clearly going to be in New Hampshire talking economy earlier,

469
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 3: but then it's onto Pittsburgh. This is interesting, Kayley reports

470
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 3: earlier today on debate Prep in the Washington Post. She's

471
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 3: going to be holding her final days of prep honkered

472
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 3: down in Pittsburgh, not Camp David or at home for instance,

473
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 3: and she's going to get there Thursday and stay for

474
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 3: the rest of that period of time.

475
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,880
Speaker 4: I guess sequestered so there are no distractions.

476
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: Yep, staying in Pennsylvania, and then she'll make the journey

477
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 2: from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia, where the debate will take place,

478
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 2: of course, on ABC on September tenth. We're going to

479
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: have full coverage of that, of course, alongside our signature

480
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 2: political panel, Rick Davis and Genie.

481
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 3: Shop That's right, let's bring him in right now our

482
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 3: panel today with debate prep in mind and of course,

483
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 3: Rick Davis is someone who knows a lot about that,

484
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 3: having prepared multiple candidates through murder boards, as they call them,

485
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 3: getting through the prep and trying to simulate the debate

486
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: that they're going to endure next Tuesday. Rick, we understand

487
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 3: Philip Rains again will be playing Donald Trump in full

488
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 3: cosplay here. I don't know if he's got the wig

489
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 3: on or not, but he's wearing lifts and doing things

490
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 3: to make it look like he's Donald Trump.

491
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 4: To what extent do you like this idea?

492
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 3: Because I know that you were concerned about Joe Biden's prep.

493
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 3: Some suggested he was over prepared. To go to a

494
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 3: different city to hunker down with your advisors and get ready.

495
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think that practice is a good thing. It's

496
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 9: been a while since Kamala Harris was on a debate

497
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 9: stage in a competitive environment, and this is the big show,

498
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 9: so I think she's doing the right thing by hunkering

499
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 9: down and bringing her team in and and you know,

500
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 9: putting reins into a red tie.

501
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 1: Again.

502
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 9: The more familiarity that you have with the stage and

503
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 9: the surroundings and the lighting, the easier it's going to

504
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,719
Speaker 9: be for you to get into sort of a thinking mode, right.

505
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 9: And we've talked about this before about debates, but you know,

506
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,479
Speaker 9: these debaters get nervous. I mean, this is the biggest

507
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 9: thing she's going to have done since her since her

508
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 9: convention speech, and maybe the most important moment of her

509
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,719
Speaker 9: political career. And tell me she's not going to have butterflies.

510
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 9: And so getting used to the scenes and sounds and

511
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 9: and action on a stage with lights in your face,

512
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 9: and knowing that you only have a certain amount of

513
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 9: time to respond, I think I think is wise to

514
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 9: acclimatize the candidate to this.

515
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 5: Well.

516
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 2: As you talk about the sounds, Rick, it also might

517
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 2: be worth noting the sounds that won't be heard, at

518
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 2: least to the audience, because, according to the debate rules

519
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 2: released by ABC, the mics will be muted when it's

520
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 2: not the candidate's turn to talk, as they were in

521
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 2: the CNN debate between Trump and Biden back in June.

522
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 2: Even despite the Harris campaign's protestation over that they would

523
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 2: like the mics to stay hot, Genie, how is that

524
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: likely to change the actual preparation that is underway. You

525
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: don't necessarily need to work on something akin to the

526
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 2: I'm speaking that we saw in the Harris Pence debate

527
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty if he can't speak while you're speaking, right.

528
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,959
Speaker 10: That's right. And we all remember she spent a lot

529
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 10: of that debate trying to you know, hush up is

530
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 10: the best way to put it on Mike Pence. You know,

531
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 10: this is a margin of error election. This debate couldn't

532
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 10: be more important for both of them. And I keep

533
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 10: thinking that if there's one thing that Kamala Harris should do,

534
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 10: you guys remember the movies of You Good Men with

535
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 10: Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson on the stand. She got

536
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 10: to entice Donald Trump to lose his mind. You know,

537
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 10: you can't handle the truth style, and that's what she's

538
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 10: got to do over and over again. To your point, Kayley,

539
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 10: the lack you know, the muting is not going to help.

540
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 11: Her with that.

541
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,439
Speaker 10: I'm old enough to remember the Rick Lazio Hillary Clinton

542
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 10: debate here in New York, which was a local bait.

543
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 10: But she's got to entice him to do that over

544
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 10: and over again because people have to be reminded who

545
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 10: Donald Trump is and the fact that he can't control

546
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 10: himself when he's goaded into saying things. And that's where

547
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 10: I would encourage her to go. We know she's methodical

548
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 10: and preparing, so I'm hoping that's where she has focused

549
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 10: her attention. But she'll be holed up in Pennsylvania doing

550
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 10: this for so many days.

551
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 3: You need me on that wall, Genie. The thing is,

552
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 3: it may not be fully baked. Rick, I don't know

553
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: what you guys think of this. The Harris campaign is

554
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 3: telling NBC News that they have not agreed to the

555
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:05,880
Speaker 3: debate rules involving that muted microphone that Kaylee just mentioned.

556
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: That they're still in fact hashing out several key issues,

557
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 3: including the muting of microphones when it's not their turn

558
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 3: to speak, Rick, what do you make of this? Are

559
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 3: we going to see this debate continue the debate about

560
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 3: the debate until next Tuesday.

561
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 9: Yeah, there's some gaymanship going on here too. You know,

562
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 9: as much as Donald Trump doesn't want to show that

563
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 9: she's getting under his skin, it was just a couple

564
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 9: of days ago he went on this rant about it.

565
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 9: Of course he could do it with the microphones on,

566
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 9: but they already agreed the microphones are going to be off.

567
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 9: And I'm sure they took that statement and said, well,

568
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 9: if he's agreed that the microphones can be on in

569
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 9: our preference is to do that and just keep them

570
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 9: all tangled up. I think tactically there are so many

571
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 9: of these beneath the public perception of things that are

572
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 9: going on. Just to get under his skin. And by

573
00:28:58,480 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 9: the way, I think that's really going to be her

574
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 9: approach in the debate. I don't think she's going to

575
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 9: try to define Donald Trump. He's the most defined person

576
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 9: maybe on the face of the earth. You're not going

577
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 9: to chip into that a lot. But she does want

578
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 9: to get under his skin and maybe elicit one of

579
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 9: those you know moments that Genie talks about where you

580
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 9: can't handle the truth comes out. Now in his case,

581
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 9: it's probably more like you can't handle my lives. But

582
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 9: that's a totally different situation.

583
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 2: Well, in our final minute here, we've course had a

584
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 2: conversation with the two of you yesterday about the idea

585
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 2: that the election may be on November fifth, but voting

586
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 2: starts at the end of this week, when absentee ballots

587
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 2: start getting mailed out in North Carolina on Friday, is

588
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: it possible that there will be people out there who've

589
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 2: already made up their minds Genie before seeing either of

590
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 2: these candidates on the stage next week.

591
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 10: Absolutely, And you know, I think in fact, as we

592
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 10: look at the data, we only have about ten percent

593
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 10: of people who haven't made up their minds and who

594
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 10: are still what we would consider persuadable. So it is

595
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 10: a small number, but in an election this type, that

596
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 10: is a critical number, and so this matters an awful lot.

597
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 10: Even though to your point early barthing is starting imminently.

598
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 10: It's very exciting, Kaylee. It's our time of year.

599
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 6: Yes, it is.

600
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 2: Geenie Shanzano and Rick Davis of course with us through

601
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 2: all of the exciting twists and turns in this election cycle,

602
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 2: our signature political panel. Thank you both so much for

603
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 2: joining us here in Balance of Power.

604
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

605
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

606
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 1: Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

607
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

608
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

609
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 3: As we carry on with our conversation about politics, who

610
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 3: want to stay on the markets for just a moment

611
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 3: with some breaking news, Kaylee, coming from the Wall Street Journal.

612
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 3: I'm guessing the markets will like this because it appears

613
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 3: no matter who wins the presidential election, we could see

614
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 3: the top level capital gains tax go down. If you're

615
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 3: looking for sunlight between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden when

616
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 3: it comes to the economy, we may have just found it, Kaylee.

617
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: She's going to talk about this in roughly one hour

618
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 3: in New Hampshire.

619
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 11: Yeah.

620
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 2: The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter

621
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 2: here that suggests that she is planning to propose a

622
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 2: less drastic increase to the capital gains tax rate. It

623
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: does not specify whether this is on unrealized gains, which

624
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: of course has been a point of dispute and heavily

625
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 2: criticized by Republicans. It's, according to the journals reporting, they've

626
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: been discussing this move as they believe the Biden proposal

627
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: put the rate too high, and a more modest rate

628
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 2: increase could potentially encourage investment in entrepreneurship and access to

629
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 2: capital for small businesses. And of course it's small businesses

630
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: and a tax credit expansion for them that Harris is

631
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: planning on.

632
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 3: Focusing on pretty interesting stuff here. They think it'll encourage

633
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 3: more investment. As you mentioned, entrepreneurs will key off of this,

634
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 3: and that's kind of the theme today. She's talking about

635
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 3: small businesses, small business incentives, tax incentives, Kayley. That add

636
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: to what we've already heard about her plans involving price

637
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 3: gouging and housing incentives. We're slowly constructing what this economic

638
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 3: proposal will be.

639
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's of course as we focus not just

640
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 2: on economic policy but the domestic policy that these candidates

641
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 2: would like to pursue more broadly. But there's foreign policy

642
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: questions as well, though likely field some of these on

643
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 2: the debate stage in Philadelphia next Tuesday as they get

644
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 2: ready to prepare for their answers, and of course front

645
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 2: and center within the Democratic Party specifically, the area in

646
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: which there is perhaps the most tension around foreign policy

647
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 2: is on the subject of Israel and its ongoing war

648
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 2: in Gaza, especially in light of the death of six

649
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 2: hostages over this past weekend. The US of course putting

650
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 2: increased pressure on the Israeli government to reach a cease fire,

651
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 2: and earlier today on surveillance, one of the members of

652
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 2: that government, the Israel Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, joined

653
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 2: our colleagues and had this to.

654
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 12: Say, in the wake of the horrific execution of six hostages,

655
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 12: including an a mayor in hirsch Goldberg, Poland, Israel is

656
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 12: not going to make concessions in the wake of that.

657
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 7: We are committed to a deal.

658
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 12: We set people to sit with negotiators to try to

659
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 12: get that deal done, and I hope we can do it.

660
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 12: We're working with the US administration to try to push

661
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 12: that deal forward. Until we have an actual practical solution

662
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 12: on the ground for the Philadelphia Corridor, Israel forces cannot leave.

663
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 2: For more on this, We're joined now by Marav Rudmand.

664
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 2: She is professor at the Miller Center at the University

665
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 2: of Virginia, also director of the Ripples of Hope project

666
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 2: focused on democratic solutions. Professor Rudman, welcome back to Bloomberg

667
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 2: TV and Radio. It's great to have you. Obviously, we

668
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 2: are all trying to figure out how the calculus around

669
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: a ceasefire agreement has changed in the aftermath of this

670
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 2: weekend's events. Thousands of protesters we have seen take to

671
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 2: the streets in Israel. Do you think the odds are

672
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 2: greater now than they were before this happened that an

673
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: agreement is reached or lower.

674
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 11: Thanksally, good to be with you again for this important discussion.

675
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 11: I think the odds have been hard all along and

676
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:09,240
Speaker 11: they continue to be so because both bb Netanyahu, Israel's

677
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 11: Prime Minister, and Yaya Sinoar, the head of Hamas and

678
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:18,280
Speaker 11: the mastermind of the horrendous Hamas action against Israel starting

679
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 11: October seventh book plan well before themselves, do not have

680
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 11: an interest in getting to a cease fire. Many pass

681
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,919
Speaker 11: means in Gaza do, many past means in the West

682
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 11: Bank do, as well as certainly Egypt Katar who are

683
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 11: working on that, and the same is true within Israel.

684
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 11: Of them, many Israelis taken to the street to to

685
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 11: push for sea fire, and Prime mister, who's own defense minister,

686
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 11: has made very clear that he thinks it's important and

687
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,439
Speaker 11: critical for Israel's interest to go forward. But two key

688
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 11: decision makers are very tough to turn on this, and

689
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,240
Speaker 11: uh And seems to have doubled down. I think Sinmar

690
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 11: has been in a tough for a while now.

691
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 3: Well, we heard from Netanya who earlier this hour Maara,

692
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 3: and he made clear, reaching directly for the sticking point here,

693
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 3: that Israel must stay along the Egypt Gaza border in

694
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 3: a first phase of a ceasefire the Philadelphi Corridor that.

695
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:19,280
Speaker 4: We've been hearing so much about.

696
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 3: As long as that's the case, there's no ceasefire.

697
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:21,879
Speaker 1: Right.

698
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 11: Well, that's Netnaha's position, as articulated by Ron Dermer, who

699
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 11: of course was ambassador to the United States, has been

700
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 11: a close ally of Natunahu for some time. I know

701
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 11: Ron Drmer, I've worked with him when I served in

702
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 11: President Obama's administration, and h he's a political guy. The

703
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 11: person who is actually got their portfolio and responsibility on

704
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 11: Israel's security needs and what's most important for Israel's security

705
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 11: is the Defense Minister Jev Golant, who has made it

706
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 11: very clear and has been public about it that he

707
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 11: believes that Israel is best protected by bringing hostages home

708
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 11: and not physically controlling the Philadelphia Corridor. That he believes

709
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 11: there are many other routes to also provide for the

710
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 11: security that Ron Dharmer talked about on Prime Minister Netanyahu's behalf.

711
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 11: So I think if the primary focus is what's in

712
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 11: Israel's interest and bringing hostages home in Israel's security, it

713
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 11: goes to some compromises that I believe have been on

714
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 11: the table or are on the table about the Philadelphia Corridor.

715
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 11: Should be clear, it's not at all obvious that even

716
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 11: if Netanyahu agrees that ya Ya Sinhoa is prepared to agree.

717
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 7: Well.

718
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 2: And of course it's not just Sinhwar and net Nyahu

719
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 2: and their governments or they're in the case of Hamas

720
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 2: the organization that's at the table. There's meteorators involved in

721
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 2: this too, including the US, but Egypt and cutter as well.

722
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 2: Are there more that any of these mediating groups could

723
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 2: be doing to force this deal to happen?

724
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 6: Or is everyone out of leverage here?

725
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 11: I think neither of your two statements, KLi Kayler are true.

726
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 11: In other words, no, I do not think things are

727
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 11: any of the countries involved are out of leverage. You're

728
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 11: never done until you're done on this kind of issue,

729
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 11: and it is hard for all the reasons we've discussed.

730
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 11: But I also believe that the United States, with Israel

731
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 11: and in partnership with the Egyptians and Kataris, who I

732
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 11: believe are working every point of leverage they have with Hamas,

733
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 11: are doing absolutely everything they can and will continue to

734
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,240
Speaker 11: do everything that they can until there is a breakthrough

735
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 11: on this. There is no giving up on this issue.

736
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 11: There cannot be.

737
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: How long has the window open though, in all reality, Mara.

738
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 3: For Benjamin Netanya, who specifically and if he announces a

739
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 3: cease fire here, what will it mean for his political career?

740
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 11: Well, listen, this is the reason that Netanyahu and Sinoir

741
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 11: and I don't mean to keep comparing them, but the

742
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 11: challenges you two key decision makers who don't share the

743
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 11: interest of everyone else involved. For Netigna, who when this

744
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 11: conflict ends, he is almost certainly done politically, there will

745
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 11: be a state investigation that is, by the way, run

746
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,360
Speaker 11: by the Supreme Court of Israel, with whom he has

747
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 11: not exactly had the best relationship since he tried to

748
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 11: essentially dismantle their power, and the Court the judiciary, is

749
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,800
Speaker 11: the one who decides how the State Commission of Inquiry runs,

750
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,240
Speaker 11: which will be to investigate everything that's happened in Israel

751
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 11: that led up to October seventh and the aftermath of

752
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 11: how it's been prosecuted as well and politically, if he

753
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 11: agrees to a cease fire, it means that he loses

754
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 11: the two wildly extreme members of his coalition who have

755
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:47,919
Speaker 11: been guaranteeing his pathway to power. So this is part

756
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 11: of putting the interests of his country ahead of his

757
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 11: own personal interests in central here and thus far not

758
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:55,879
Speaker 11: something he's been willing to do, though he and Ron

759
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 11: Dermer and others wrap it in a lot of other language.

760
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 2: Well, of course, Mara, before the events of this weekend,

761
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:08,479
Speaker 2: we were focusing our conversation on Israel's preemptive strikes into

762
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 2: or against Hesbela and others, as they are trying to

763
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 2: avoid retaliation or intercept retaliation for both Hesbela and Iran.

764
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 2: For events earlier this summer, the assassinations of Hamas's political

765
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 2: leader in Tehran and of course a Hesbela commander near Beirut,

766
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 2: Does that take the Israeli eye off the ball, if

767
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 2: you will, of those potential threats that could be coming

768
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 2: in from other Iranian proxies or Iron itself that aren't Hamas.

769
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 2: How does especially the domestic pressure at home for Netanyahu

770
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 2: influence what kind of other events could transpire on other borders?

771
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,319
Speaker 11: Well, Listen, all of these events are in one way

772
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 11: or another interrelated. Getting to a cease fire in Gaza

773
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 11: will help to reduce the reasons that or what some

774
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 11: of what is behind Hesbela's attacks on Israel and the

775
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 11: northern border. It will help to dial that down as

776
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 11: opposed to dialing it up. And also if you could

777
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 11: actually go forward with the types of proposal of the

778
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 11: United States has been working, for example, with the Saudis

779
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 11: to get to a way forward for the Palestinians, which

780
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 11: will absolutely be the next steps from the ceasefire. You

781
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 11: need to have some way for the West Bank to

782
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 11: restabilize and for Ganza to be built back. You need

783
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 11: to have other forces around the region come in. They

784
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 11: will not do that without some agreement from Israel to

785
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 11: move forward, to begin to discuss the future of a

786
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 11: Palestinian state, not to agree to one tomorrow, but to

787
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 11: have some pathway forward that can allow for reforms for

788
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 11: Palestinians and leaders that will be able to represent them

789
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 11: going forward. I bring this up in the context of

790
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 11: your question about the regional conflicts because having Saudi Arabia, Egypt,

791
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 11: the Cuntrison one way or another, all aligned, as well

792
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 11: as other countries in the region, will help to push

793
00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 11: back on the threat that Iran poses as well. There's

794
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 11: elements of the deal the Saudis would strike with the

795
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 11: United States, that would help Saudi security, help regional security,

796
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 11: give the United States more strength visa the Iran, and frankly,

797
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 11: put Israel in a more secure position. So all of

798
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 11: these elements are interlinked.

799
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 3: Laura, it's always a real pleasure to have you, Maora Rudman,

800
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 3: Professor at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia.

801
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 4: We thank you as always.

802
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

803
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

804
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 1: Rounto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

805
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

806
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,720
Speaker 4: Welcome to the Wednesday edition. I know you think it's Tuesday.

807
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 3: I did that this morning as well on Bloomberg Radio

808
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 3: with a special greeting to our listeners in Boston, finding

809
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 3: us now on ninety two nine FM. It's great to

810
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 3: be part of the conversation, of course in Boston, but

811
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 3: also on satellite radio and on YouTube, where you can

812
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 3: find us right now search Bloomberg Business News Live with

813
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 3: our eyes on the campaign trail as always, and as

814
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:07,479
Speaker 3: I refer to our listeners in Boston, a little close

815
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 3: to home. Kamala Harris heading to the Great Seacoast of

816
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 3: New Hampshire. Yes, there is one Northampton, New Hampshire. God

817
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 3: imagine what they'll be doing at the Hampton Beach Casino

818
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,879
Speaker 3: ballroom when she rolls out the economic plan.

819
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 4: That's not her venue.

820
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 3: She's actually going to do this at a brewery in Northampton,

821
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 3: New Hampshire. Small business policy plans the theme today. We

822
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 3: already heard some broad strokes in terms of price gouging

823
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 3: and the housing market from Kamala Harris. She's going to

824
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 3: fill in a few more blanks according to the campaign today.

825
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 3: That happens two forty five pm Eastern times, So that'll

826
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 3: be in the late edition of Balance of Power when

827
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 3: we get some details. Donald Trump holding a town hall,

828
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 3: at least as it's being called, it's a Fox show

829
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 3: Sean Hannity doing that later on. They're recording it in Harrisonburg,

830
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 3: Harrisburg rather Pennsylvania, and it airs later tonight also in Pennsylvania.

831
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 3: Tim Walls, he's in Lancaster in Pittsburgh today with campaign events.

832
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 3: Not a mystery as these two campaigns carve out travel plans.

833
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,320
Speaker 3: Having spent Labor Day in the three Swing states and

834
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 3: here we are again back in Pennsylvania and in New

835
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 3: Hampshire too. A lot of questions about campaign resources in

836
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 3: New Hampshire. We're going to talk in our second hour

837
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 3: with Governor Chris Sanunu a bit about that. But let's

838
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,320
Speaker 3: dig into the economy here. The plans by both of

839
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 3: these campaigns that are going to drive voters when they

840
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 3: hit the polls I'd say in November, but even some

841
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 3: by mail as soon as this weekend. The current joints

842
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Global Economy Reporter with an awfully important story today

843
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 3: on the Trump tax cuts that we're going to get into.

844
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 4: And it's great to see you.

845
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 3: Small business a good talker for Kamala Harris getting in

846
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 3: front of people today. She's talking about incentives for small

847
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 3: business owners, not necessarily consumer themes that she's been hitting

848
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 3: like the price of groceries, etc.

849
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 13: Small business is the backbone of this economy. They're the

850
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:59,959
Speaker 13: biggest employer of workers in this economy. Small business creation

851
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 13: has been on a boom over the past few years

852
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 13: because of the way things have shifted a bit due

853
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 13: to the pandemic and everything else. So it's probably pretty

854
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 13: smart to identify that part of the economy for maybe

855
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 13: offering tax relief and other measures to stoke growth and

856
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 13: combination there, I should say. Skeptics say, though that small.

857
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 13: A lot of these small businesses register they start ultimately

858
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 13: due to turn the profit and how many workers you

859
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:22,879
Speaker 13: do to keep in the payroll. But you know, it's

860
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 13: been a good news story over the past few years.

861
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 3: A tenfold increase in the small business tax deduction for

862
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:32,800
Speaker 3: startup costs. Bloomberg got hands on some of the finer

863
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 3: points on the tax proposals here that she'll outline later,

864
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:40,839
Speaker 3: increasing that deduction from five to fifty thousand dollars. It's

865
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 3: interesting as she's trying to become more business friendly in

866
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 3: the face of Donald Trump.

867
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 13: Isn't it more business friendly because of the feeling she

868
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 13: might be tougher on bigger businesses for example, higher copper

869
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 13: tax rate for instance. But it does feed into the

870
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,879
Speaker 13: fiscal story again with both candidates in this case talked

871
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:59,280
Speaker 13: about Vice President Harris question marks around you know, how

872
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:01,400
Speaker 13: will it be fun how much of least add to

873
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 13: the deficit. Some estimates of our economic policy so far

874
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 13: telling it maybe around two odd trillion mark. That's the

875
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 13: pen Morton budget model for example, so when you see

876
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 13: this small business tax measure as well, kind of adds

877
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 13: the idea that hold on a sect, there's a little

878
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 13: bit of a bill out of you up here. There's

879
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 13: going to have to be some offsets made clear for that.

880
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 7: As well well.

881
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:19,839
Speaker 4: And that goes for both campaigns. Of course, I talk

882
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 4: about this a lot.

883
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 3: Neither campaign is really illustrated how they will pay for

884
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 3: things outside of very broad strokes. Trump says we'll grow

885
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 3: out of it. Kamala Harris is going to soak the rich.

886
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 3: But you need Congress to play along to make both

887
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 3: of these happen. Certainly when it comes to allocating dollars,

888
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 3: and you're looking at a really important item today when

889
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 3: it comes to the Trump tax cuts. One of the

890
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 3: most red stories today on the terminal Trump tax cuts

891
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 3: would cost more than almost all federal agencies. Ten point

892
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 3: five trillion dollars you write, and over a decade would

893
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:53,800
Speaker 3: exceed the combined budgets of every domestic federal agency.

894
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 4: How is that conservative?

895
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 13: Yeah, So, along with my colleague Eric Walston, a rough

896
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,720
Speaker 13: tally of what they're talking about in the Trump campaign.

897
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 13: As you mentioned, there is the five odd trillion for

898
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 13: extending the tax cuts three odd trillion for child tax

899
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 13: credit that is running mayjd Events has talked about. Then

900
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 13: there's the rest like the no tax on tips, lower

901
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 13: corporate tax, social security exemption. Point is, it's adding up

902
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,839
Speaker 13: with some pretty big numbers there at a time when

903
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,399
Speaker 13: people are warning about the fiscal trajectory, saying the deaths

904
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 13: that needs to be rained in and it needs to

905
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 13: be ruining now. Of course, the Trump campaign that makes

906
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 13: it very clear these measures are pro growth, will generate

907
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:28,360
Speaker 13: revenue for the government, and it will be offset in

908
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 13: that way. But there are plenty of analysts in the

909
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 13: middle who are warning both about this policy and the

910
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 13: physical trajectory in general, saying, hang on, you're going to

911
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 13: have to find some savings here or the very least

912
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 13: offsets to get things back on track.

913
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 3: So is this debate next Tuesday night going to be

914
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 3: a contest of who can outspend the other.

915
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 13: Well, the gap is still pretty large between both. I mean,

916
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 13: as I say, you can there's a couple of trillion

917
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 13: adding up on the Harrier side, but the trillions are

918
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:52,399
Speaker 13: really adding up in the Trump campaign when it comes

919
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 13: to where the ticket stuff are. And that's what the

920
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,320
Speaker 13: analysts are saying early in this campaign, a lot depends

921
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 13: though what shape will Congress be in, what will Congress

922
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 13: pass I mean, there's a million in one way somebody

923
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 13: whaler will not be passed yet. So but in terms

924
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 13: of campaign sort of conjecture on the road, the big

925
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,839
Speaker 13: ticketself is mostly falling on the Trump side of things right.

926
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,839
Speaker 3: Now, by the scale of trillions. Remarkable and a great work.

927
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us always. It's one

928
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 3: of the smartest we have in the bureau. Into current

929
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Global Economy reporter. Find this story on the terminal now.

930
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 3: It's a good read, and there's a lot more information

931
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 3: that we didn't have a chance to get to. This

932
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 3: is the kind of coverage that we promise here on Bloomberg. Yes,

933
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 3: we talk about the horse race, but the policy proposals

934
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 3: here that in many cases are leaving voters wanting or

935
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 3: something that we're exploring with a very fine point here.

936
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:41,360
Speaker 3: We'll have more on this, by the way, Kamala Harris

937
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 3: again speaks a few hours from now, Donald Trump, I

938
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 3: suspect will be asked about his plans when he talks

939
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 3: to Fox and Sean Hannity a little.

940
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 4: Bit later on again much like yesterday.

941
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 3: This is all playing out against the backdrop of what's

942
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 3: taking place in Israel right now, and none of this

943
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 3: is coming easily as negotiators work toward a cease fire,

944
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:04,760
Speaker 3: even as Benjamin Neett Yaho prepares to address the public,

945
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:06,399
Speaker 3: He's due to give a speech right now. In fact,

946
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 3: I've got my eyes on the headlines here on the

947
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 3: terminal to see if he's going to make any news.

948
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 3: Clearly not inspired to move forward on a ceasefire with

949
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 3: the terms that are being put forth, including a withdrawal

950
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 3: from the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border. Now, we

951
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 3: can talk about this from a lot of different angles.

952
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 3: We've brought on military strategists, we've brought on political experts.

953
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 3: Today we want to bring on a peacemaker, and this

954
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 3: is an important conversation. Giddy Grinstein is the former secretary

955
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:39,880
Speaker 3: and coordinator of the Israeli delegation for the negotiations with

956
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:45,840
Speaker 3: the PLO in nineteen ninety nine through two thousand and one. Giddy,

957
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 3: it's great to have you here. I appreciate your time today,

958
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 3: and as someone who has sat at the negotiating table,

959
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 3: I wonder what your advice is for benjaminett Yaho as

960
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 3: he prepares to speak.

961
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 14: Wants a deal or not. If he wants a deal,

962
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 14: he has to rely on the Katari and the Egyptian

963
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 14: intermediaries because they have the leverage on Hamas. Egypt because

964
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 14: it controls the border and Kantar because of the financing,

965
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 14: and because of the fact that it hosts the Harama's

966
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 14: leadership in Doha. Those are the two leverages that Israel

967
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:23,719
Speaker 14: has from the diplomatic side. On the ground, I think

968
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 14: that Hamas has put Israel in a bind because Israel's

969
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 14: maneuvering on the ground to push Hamas is actually led

970
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:33,840
Speaker 14: to the death of a number of hostages. So Israel

971
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 14: is now extremely cautious in terms of being able to

972
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,320
Speaker 14: use its military power on the ground. But really it

973
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,239
Speaker 14: comes down to the politics. Doesnt Ania want a deal

974
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:46,640
Speaker 14: or not? A deal like that may compromise his coalition

975
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 14: with the far right parties. It may also lead him

976
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:54,879
Speaker 14: down a path of additional, very difficult political decisions which

977
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 14: may destabilize his coalition and effectively bring his tenure to

978
00:49:59,000 --> 00:49:59,319
Speaker 14: an end.

979
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:05,320
Speaker 3: That's my next question. Does a cease fire deal represent

980
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 3: the end of Benjamin Netnya who is political career.

981
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 14: Not necessarily. I mean, let's speak first about the current

982
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:17,360
Speaker 14: tenure and the current government, and then about his political career. Ideally,

983
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:20,719
Speaker 14: I believe that natania would have wanted to end this

984
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 14: current tenure with some sort of a move where he

985
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 14: does what is necessary in order to allow for what

986
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 14: is called the Saudi Deal to unfold. He goes he

987
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 14: at that moment he says when he says whatever needs

988
00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 14: to be said about the Palestinians, about the political horizon,

989
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:45,760
Speaker 14: that includes some sort of very uncommitting statement about Palestinian statehood.

990
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 14: At that point, he loses the far right factions of

991
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 14: his coalition. He goes to election as the person that

992
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 14: brought the normalization with Saudi, the person that fought hard

993
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 14: with the Palestinians, relentless fighting than Hamas and was still

994
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 14: nonetheless able to bring a normalization deal with Saudi, which

995
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,040
Speaker 14: is really a tremendous historical achievement that I think is

996
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 14: the ideal scenario in which Nataniao goes to election. Of course,

997
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 14: if he ends up being it ends up being when

998
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 14: President Trump is elected and is the incoming president already

999
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 14: in the White House. That for Nataniao is the ultimate scenario.

1000
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 3: Okay, that said, what role should and what role is

1001
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:32,240
Speaker 3: Egypt playing in this process?

1002
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 14: So Egypt has been the anchor of the stability in

1003
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 14: the region for almost fifty years since the nineteen seventies.

1004
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:45,360
Speaker 14: Effectively the nineteen seventy three war which led to the

1005
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:49,320
Speaker 14: nineteen seventy four disengagement agreements, which led to the nineteen

1006
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 14: seventy eight nineteen seventy nine Camp David, the courts and

1007
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 14: the Israel Egypt Peace Treaty has turned Egypt into an

1008
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 14: anchor of stability in the region. Of course, there are

1009
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 14: a lot of qualifications around that, and not been as

1010
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,440
Speaker 14: stable and quiet as everybody would have wanted. But generally speaking,

1011
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 14: almost everything that Israel was able to do in Gaza

1012
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 14: and with the Palestinians in Gaza, including since Hamas took

1013
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:14,919
Speaker 14: took over Gaza in June two thousand and seven, has

1014
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 14: been through the Egyptians and with the Egyptians later on

1015
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:20,840
Speaker 14: also the Katarists came on board. We have to understand

1016
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 14: that Israel and Hamas and I repeat Hamas, not the

1017
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 14: Palestinian authority, have a legacy of back channel negotiations, agreement

1018
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:35,720
Speaker 14: and understandings that included prisoner exchange, including opening the border,

1019
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 14: including all sorts of security arrangements. So that has been

1020
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 14: sort of kind of working through the Egyptian channel for

1021
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 14: many years until now. Obviously everything collapsed on October seven,

1022
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 14: but until now Egypt has been sort of a cornerstone

1023
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,920
Speaker 14: for all the arrangements in the region, and over and

1024
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:02,319
Speaker 14: over again, whenever Israel and Amas sort of deteriorated into

1025
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 14: an exchange of military blows, Hamas shooting rockets or sending

1026
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 14: terrorists into Israel and Israel attacking and retaliation in Gaza,

1027
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 14: it was the Egyptians who were able to stabilize the

1028
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 14: situation and bring back the ceasefire.

1029
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 4: You mentioned, Getty.

1030
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 3: The hostages six hostages found dead, freshly assassinated as the

1031
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:27,840
Speaker 3: IDF moved into rescue them over the weekend. Of course,

1032
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:31,799
Speaker 3: they included one American. There seems to be confusion over

1033
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 3: what impact this will have on the negotiating process. If

1034
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 3: you ask the Biden administration, they say it heightens the

1035
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 3: urgency and need for a ceasefire. Benjamin Etna, who seems

1036
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 3: to be on the other side of that coin, it proves,

1037
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 3: he says that Hamas cannot be trusted.

1038
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 4: What do you think.

1039
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:52,760
Speaker 14: I think obviously those two forces are working in opposite direction.

1040
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 14: On atanial there are tremendous pressures from the right not

1041
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 14: to do a hostage deal, or at least to put

1042
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:02,359
Speaker 14: conditions and terms for a hostage deal that would make

1043
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 14: such a deal effectively impossible. They don't want a ceasefire,

1044
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,439
Speaker 14: they don't want any kind of a political process. They're

1045
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 14: very concerned that even if Hamas is defeated and removed

1046
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 14: out of power, that Gaza and the West Bank will

1047
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 14: be unified again as a single territorial unit, what we

1048
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 14: used to call a single territorial unit, which then would

1049
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 14: open the way for the reinstitution of the Oslock courts.

1050
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:29,279
Speaker 14: All these are nightmare scenarios for the right, for the

1051
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 14: right wing parties, and that's why they understand that if

1052
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:36,799
Speaker 14: the hostage deal doesn't happen, none of the other things

1053
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 14: can happen. On the other side, you have very powerful

1054
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 14: factions in Israel, including the military, the defense establishment, and

1055
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,040
Speaker 14: many others that are saying, we have to do the

1056
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:51,239
Speaker 14: deal now, we deal with the consequences later. Today, the

1057
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 14: Chief of Staff, the commander of the Israeli military said,

1058
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 14: every hostage that comes back alive today would have decades

1059
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:59,920
Speaker 14: of life. Every terrorist that will go back to Gos

1060
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 14: that will eventually be killed. So basically, this is his

1061
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 14: way of saying, let's do the deal, let's move on.

1062
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:10,719
Speaker 14: We have to remember also that the fact that these

1063
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:14,320
Speaker 14: hostages are in Gaza, it really compromises the ability of

1064
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 14: the military to maneuver freely in Gaza and to carry

1065
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 14: out military operations and hamas has been.

1066
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 7: Quite a mark.

1067
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:23,240
Speaker 3: Sorry, I'm out of time, Giddy Grinstein, Thank you so much, Giddy.

1068
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:28,280
Speaker 3: I apologize for interrupting. Thanks for listening to the Balance

1069
00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 3: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't

1070
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 3: already an Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

1071
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:37,680
Speaker 3: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

1072
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 3: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.