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Speaker 1: What's up, guys, Happy selection Sunday. It's the Sunday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Deal Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: We are here on Bettingpros dot com, on every single

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Speaker 1: podcast platform, and now on YouTube as well, with video

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Speaker 1: of this podcast every single morning, always being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by bet MGM. Okay, we're off and running here

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Speaker 1: with a really good start to tournament basketball five and

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Speaker 1: one on Friday, five and oh yesterday. That is ten

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Speaker 1: of our last eleven plays here on the podcast have cash. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so this is not normal. Okay, this is not typical,

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Speaker 1: but it's a hell of a lot of fun when

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Speaker 1: we're doing this and we're rolling like this, and I

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Speaker 1: love seeing the tickets. I love that you guys are cashing.

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Speaker 1: I love that you guys are Some of you guys

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Speaker 1: are parlaying these picks, and I don't like that you

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Speaker 1: do that. But okay, you know, if it cashes once

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Speaker 1: in a while, while congratulations, that's cool. You guys get

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Speaker 1: a couple of big hits out of it. But you know,

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Speaker 1: five to oho five and one is not typical. If

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Speaker 1: you've listened to this podcast. You know that we're more

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Speaker 1: traditionally three and two, four and one, you know, on

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Speaker 1: good days, but we also can go through three and

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Speaker 1: threes and twos and twos a lot. So for the week,

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Speaker 1: we went twenty and fifteen, up one and a half

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Speaker 1: units or closer to two units, somewhere between one point

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Speaker 1: five and two units being up on the week. So

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Speaker 1: another winning week, Great February, winning month. January was bad.

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Speaker 1: We're still climbing out of the hole, but got a

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Speaker 1: good month of February, first week of March. We'd get

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Speaker 1: a winning week in March, which is tremendous because we

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Speaker 1: didn't get off to a great start, but obviously closing

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Speaker 1: the week on a ten to one run is just

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Speaker 1: tremendous and just really really cool. So just to recap

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Speaker 1: quickly where we were, somehow the Jets and the Maple

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Speaker 1: Leafs went over. That game was zero zero going into

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Speaker 1: the second period, and we got seven goals. Third period

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Speaker 1: goals in the NHL insane, just absolutely insane with what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing for goals in the third period. So that

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Speaker 1: hits at minus one oh six. That was great. Alabama

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Speaker 1: with just a miracle cover against Tennessee more on Alabama

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Speaker 1: here in a couple of seconds, Georgetown throttles Creighton bad

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Speaker 1: for a team that only has good now is owen

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Speaker 1: three in the Biggies Tournament final and they've never won

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Speaker 1: more than one game in the dance. That's a horrible

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Speaker 1: performance by Greg mcdermod's team. And just I don't know

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Speaker 1: if the emotionals and the emotions or just a bad

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Speaker 1: matchup or what it was, but credit Georgetown. Congratulations, they're

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Speaker 1: going to the dance.

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Speaker 2: That stole a bid.

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Speaker 1: And that's a huge win for Patrick Ewing in the

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Speaker 1: house that he built at MSG. So the plus eight

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Speaker 1: it is easy. They won by what three against Creighton.

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Speaker 1: Illinois comes through with a win over Iowa.

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Speaker 2: Sorry, Iowa. I told you guys. You're a good team.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you're a good basketball team. You're just not elites.

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Speaker 1: You're just not in the top ten. You're just not

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Speaker 1: one of the best teams in college basketball. No matter

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Speaker 1: how much you think you are, you're not. You're not

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Speaker 1: athletic enough, you're not good enough on defense. Guars is

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Speaker 1: a decent player. Okay, he's overrated because of where he

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Speaker 1: is as the age he's playing in, the size that

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Speaker 1: he is in college basketball, but he's a late first

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Speaker 1: round pick. I guess he's a guy that will sit

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Speaker 1: in the NBA. He'll play ten years in the NBA, okay,

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Speaker 1: but he'll be the thirteenth guy on the bench. It's

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Speaker 1: a damn good living, not knocking it. But that's what

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Speaker 1: Luca Garza is, Okay. He's a pick that will go

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Speaker 1: like twenty four to twenty five in the draft and

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Speaker 1: he'll just play, you know, ten fifteen years and bank

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Speaker 1: a lot of money and just be a backup center

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Speaker 1: in the NBA for the rest of his life.

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Speaker 2: So that's just what the guy is.

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Speaker 1: And you know, that's no disrespect for him because he's

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Speaker 1: a really good player.

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Speaker 2: He's just I don't think Iowa is very good. Okay.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna kill whoever they play in their first game,

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Speaker 1: and I think they win. They win their first game,

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Speaker 1: they lose their second game without even seeing the draw.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you, that's what Iowa's gonna That's what I

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Speaker 1: was gonna do. Okay, They're gonna win their first game

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Speaker 1: by like thirty and then they're gonna lose their second game.

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Speaker 1: We'll see the draw coming up tomorrow or today. But

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Speaker 1: that's where I think is gonna happen for Iowa. So

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Speaker 1: we got those and then the Karl Anthony Towns over hit.

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Speaker 1: We're now nine and two on NBA props.

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Speaker 2: That's great.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you right now. If we continue like this,

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Speaker 1: I will think about redoing or upping my bet total

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Speaker 1: from a quarter unit, which I always do on props

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Speaker 1: as a quarter unit, if we go like sixteen and

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Speaker 1: four after twenty of these, if we're sixteen and four,

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Speaker 1: I'll start betting half a units because we'll have banked

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Speaker 1: enough money for me to op it and say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's try to go half unit and watch me go.

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Speaker 1: Its cold when I do that. But I'm gonna stay

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Speaker 1: with a quarter unit for now. I got two prop

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Speaker 1: bets to give you here, one NBA play and a

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Speaker 1: couple of college basketball plays today to give you. But

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Speaker 1: I am I'm eyeballing this. Okay, nine and two is

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Speaker 1: nine and two. That's a pretty good mark. Let's see

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Speaker 1: what we go for the rest of the next ten.

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Speaker 1: Let's see where we go. But nine and two is

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Speaker 1: nine and two, and that's that's pretty good. So we

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Speaker 1: got cat or late third, early fourth. He got to

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Speaker 1: twenty four points to catch that for us. So here's

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Speaker 1: where we are going in to Sunday. Okay, So we

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Speaker 1: have John Rahm going into the the players. It will

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Speaker 1: cover if he comes in the top ten. It will

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Speaker 1: cover the Web Simpson loss and the loss for Patrick

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Speaker 1: Cantlay who did not make the cut in this event.

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Speaker 1: He's in the top ten right now plus two hundred,

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Speaker 1: so I rom stays there. That's fine. We're flat on

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Speaker 1: the whole weekend for the players, which is fine better

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Speaker 1: than being down. We've got Illinois going on today against

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Speaker 1: Ohio State in the Big Ten final. We have Illinois

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Speaker 1: at plus two seventy five. I only bet a quarter

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Speaker 1: unit on this, okay, So I'm not gonna hedge if

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Speaker 1: you bet more than a quarter unit, and maybe you

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Speaker 1: bet a half a unit. I understand if you want

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Speaker 1: to hedge this. If you say, look, I have enough

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Speaker 1: invested that at plus two to oh five, it's worth

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Speaker 1: the go take Ohio State and guarantee a profit.

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Speaker 2: I have no problem with you doing that. For me.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna hope Illinois wins the game and wins

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Speaker 1: the tournament and we cash it plus two seventy five.

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Speaker 1: It's not worth it. For me, I'm just gonna let

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Speaker 1: it ride at a quarter unit. Let's let it ride

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Speaker 1: if you have a full unit on it, Hedge, I

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Speaker 1: only have a quarter, So I'm letting Illinois A plus

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Speaker 1: two seventy five.

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Speaker 2: I'm letting that go.

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Speaker 1: So ILLINOI plus two seventy five plus two hundred, both

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Speaker 1: going into Sunday here for bets that we'll be decided today.

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Speaker 1: So if both those bets catch, that's tremendous. That's a

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Speaker 1: really nice little bounce for us here on a Sunday

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Speaker 1: to start the week off on a good note. So

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Speaker 1: let's get to two college basketball games, and then let's

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Speaker 1: get to the three NBA games that I've got going on.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with LSU and Alabama here. Okay, so Alabama

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Speaker 1: is laying six. You're probably gonna get a better number

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Speaker 1: than this because the public's gonna come in here in

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Speaker 1: bet Alabama.

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Speaker 2: Bama's being projected as.

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Speaker 1: A two seed. Win or lose here today, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be a two seed in the NCAA Tournament. LSU is

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Speaker 1: being projected as a seven seed by ESPN's bracketology before

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Speaker 1: this game. My guess is if they win, they might

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Speaker 1: move into the sixth line if they beat Alabama. So

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Speaker 1: they are playing for something here coming up today. LSU

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Speaker 1: is eighteen and eight on the year. Okay, they're thirteen

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Speaker 1: and six in the conference. They've won four games in

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Speaker 1: a row and Will Wade is a really, really good coach.

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Speaker 1: Alabama's not gonna have Primo today because of an injury.

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Speaker 1: He may be back for the tournament, but it's one

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Speaker 1: of the best three point shooters for Alabama who won't

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Speaker 1: be available. LSU has covered the last three games, two

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Speaker 1: of which they've won. The game outright as dogs against

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Speaker 1: Missouri plus three and a half, they won by six.

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Speaker 2: Ole miss they won.

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Speaker 1: They were one point favorite, one by three, and yesterday

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Speaker 1: against Arkansas catching three and a half, they won by seven.

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Speaker 1: Alabama destroyed Mississippi State in their first game here in

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Speaker 1: the tournaments by thirty seven points. As seven and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites. We were on that, and then we

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Speaker 1: were on Alabama against Tennessee minus four and they covered

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Speaker 1: by one. They barely covered with free throws late we

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Speaker 1: had three closed at four and they won by five.

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Speaker 1: It was some had four and a half. It was

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Speaker 1: a complete and total sweat for people who were on

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Speaker 1: Alabama yesterday, and I didn't like the way Bama played

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Speaker 1: in the first stelf. I didn't like the way that

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Speaker 1: they played in the second half. I really didn't like

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Speaker 1: the way they played. They rallied and played really well.

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Speaker 1: But I think Alabama is ripe here to lose the

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Speaker 1: game outright now. They may come back on LSU. I

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Speaker 1: think you guys may get a better number than I got.

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Speaker 1: I got LSU plus six. I think the public will

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Speaker 1: come in and bet this number up. You may get

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Speaker 1: six and a half, you may get seven. But I

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Speaker 1: think LSU is waking up today angrier, hungrier, and simply

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Speaker 1: wanting it more than Alabama. I love Natoates, I love

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Speaker 1: the Crimson Tide, but when they get to this point

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Speaker 1: where everyone just assumes they're gonna roll, Look what happened

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Speaker 1: with Georgetown yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Look at some of these.

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Speaker 1: To me, the conference finals, it really matters who wants

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Speaker 1: it more. It's why I'm afraid of Ohio State in

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Speaker 1: Illinois for that matter. Ohio State wants it more. Illinois

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Speaker 1: has a great coach. I love Brett Underwood, but like

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Speaker 1: I could easily see Ohio State winning the game today

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Speaker 1: or at least covering the six points today against Illinois.

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Speaker 1: That game scares me. This game scares me. If I'm

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Speaker 1: betting Alabama, I'm laying six in Alabama. Uh uh, I

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Speaker 1: can't do it. I just is too heavy to me

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Speaker 1: in a game that I think is gonna be very,

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Speaker 1: very close, even though Alabama has whipped LSU in both matchups.

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Speaker 1: When they played them in Tuscle loose so they won

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Speaker 1: by eighteen points as eight and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 1: When they played at LSU, they won by thirty. As

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Speaker 1: one point favorites, they won by thirty.

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Speaker 2: I think Will.

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Speaker 1: Wade's going to figure out a game plan here to

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Speaker 1: keep this game close the whole. I don't buy the

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Speaker 1: whole stupid adage like it's tough to beat their team

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Speaker 1: three teams in a row. There are three games in

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Speaker 1: one season. Maybe maybe not. I don't buy that. I

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Speaker 1: think LSU just wants it more. I think LSU is healthier.

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Speaker 1: LSU was hungry here. I think their perimeter defense is

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Speaker 1: going to get out in Alabama, and I think this

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Speaker 1: is a team that's found its way here.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the six points here.

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Speaker 1: LSU plus six, let's fade Bama in the final of

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Speaker 1: the ls of the SEC championship game. Bama Way may win,

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Speaker 1: but I think LSU keeps it within six. Take the

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Speaker 1: six points. The other play is I'm kind of gonna

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Speaker 1: fade what I just said and kind of forget everything

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Speaker 1: I just said. So Houston is taking on Cincinnati in

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Speaker 1: the championship game, and it is I mean the numbers.

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Speaker 2: Third, teen and a half.

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Speaker 1: It is scary to lay thirteen and a half in

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Speaker 1: a championship game because Cincinnati just beat SMU and Wichita State.

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Speaker 1: The witch Just State game was the shocker. That was

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Speaker 1: the Oh my goodness. But here's the thing about playing

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Speaker 1: three games in three days. Houston plays defense. I don't

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Speaker 1: hate an underplay on this. It's one thirty seven. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't hate playing the under because I don't think anyone's

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Speaker 1: gonna score. But if you remember, I bet Cincinnati plus

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Speaker 1: plus twelve and a half about three weeks ago, and

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Speaker 1: Houston won it by thirty eight points. I think Houston

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Speaker 1: is gonna kill Cincinnati today in the championship game, and

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna have to worry too much.

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Speaker 2: They got by Memphis.

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Speaker 1: They were seven point favorites and they won by two

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Speaker 1: they beat TWU Lane by twenty five as eighteen and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorites, and I think the same thing's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen here. Cincinnati can't score all right, They're just

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Speaker 1: not a good basketball team offensively, and I think when

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Speaker 1: you have tired legs, it may it's even more difficult

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Speaker 1: for you. Since he's twelve to ten on the year,

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Speaker 1: they're ten and six in the conference. And sure they've

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Speaker 1: won the last three games, but I mean they beat

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Speaker 1: which It to Top sixty to fifty nine, They're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to score way more than sixty points if they're

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Speaker 1: gonna beat Houston.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that they can.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Houston in that game scored ninety on them,

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Speaker 1: ninety to fifty two. That's about the ceiling that I

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Speaker 1: would give. And you want to go team totals, you

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Speaker 1: want to look at, you know, Cincinnati under team totals

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Speaker 1: or Houston over team totals. Those maybe good bets to

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Speaker 1: make as well. I just think cin Cincinnati's not gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to keep pace with Houston. I think their defense, rebounding,

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Speaker 1: the way they play, they won't hit a.

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Speaker 2: Ton of threes today.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I think the under is probably a

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Speaker 1: decent bet, but I could see them winning the game

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Speaker 1: like sixty to forty. Okay, I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a really ugly, ugly basketball game. But I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 1: the thirteen and a half points here with Houston at

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Speaker 1: a half a unit. So LSU plus six half a

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Speaker 1: unit and Houston minus thirteen and a half, both in

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Speaker 1: title games at a half a unit. Okay, So let's

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Speaker 1: go to the NBA here, and let's I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: get too cute with this breakdown. Boston is playing at Houston.

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Speaker 2: Okay. This is a bad, bad, bad Rockets team.

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Speaker 1: Anybody that needs to get right should go play against

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Speaker 1: the Rockets because you're gonna get right. The Rockets are

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Speaker 1: the worst team in the NBA, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: they've got an answer for really anybody right now. They

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Speaker 1: just cannot stop anyone, and I a pardon me, feels

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Speaker 1: bad for them. I mean, they're so banged up that

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Speaker 1: they may be a bit more healthy coming up today.

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Speaker 1: They make it a couple of players back, but they've

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Speaker 1: been just the you know, everyone is just killing the

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Speaker 1: Houston Rockets. And this game's at home, so we'll see

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Speaker 1: what's at Christian Wood's probable. John Wallace out houses out,

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Speaker 1: Gordon is out, PJ. Tucker is out because they're trading him,

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Speaker 1: Xum is out. I mean, it's just you know, they don't.

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Speaker 2: Have anybody right now.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I got Boston minus ten. I don't think we

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Speaker 1: need to get too cute with this. We're going Celtics

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Speaker 1: minus ten here to beat up on this really bad team.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Boston seventeen and twenty against the number, which

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Speaker 1: is kind of crazy. Houston is twelve and twenty four.

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Speaker 1: They covered against Utah because the number closed at nineteen

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Speaker 1: and they lost by fifteen open up at twelve. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it was steamed all the way up to nineteen where

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Speaker 1: it didn't cover. But every other game before that they

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Speaker 1: haven't covered even ten and a half points. Against Brooklyn

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Speaker 1: at home, they lost by eighteen. Celtics, I think are

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Speaker 1: just gonna roll here. Boston is covered once in their

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Speaker 1: last four games. This is a perfect situation for them

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Speaker 1: to go to Houston and get a big, big w

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Speaker 1: and blow out the Houston Rockets. I'm gonna lay the

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Speaker 1: ten points Boston minus ten at Houston, and I've got

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Speaker 1: one player prop going here in this game, and we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go and grab Jason Tatum. Number two on the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros prop bet cheat sheet is Jason Tatum. Twenty

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Speaker 1: four and a half is the number I got. You

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Speaker 1: can get it at FANDUE at minus one oh eight

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Speaker 1: to other books. Books have it at twenty four and

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Speaker 1: a half for Jason Tatum, and he scored thirty one points,

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Speaker 1: five rebounds in three assists in the loss to the

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Speaker 1: Nets on Thursday. The Betting Pros cheat sheet both likes

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Speaker 1: Jalen Brown to go over and Jason Tatum to go over.

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Speaker 1: The total in this game is two twenty four, which

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00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,080
Speaker 1: isn't too high, but it's still a little inflated.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: That's basically all off of Boston expecting Boston to score

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Speaker 1: quite a bit here. So if you look at overall

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Speaker 1: team totals for Boston, it's one seventeen and a half

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Speaker 1: is what the team total is expected for the Boston Celtics.

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Speaker 1: So who's going to score the majority of the points

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Speaker 1: Kemba Walker, Jalen Brown, and Jason Tatum. So all three

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Speaker 1: are on the Betting Pros prop bet cheat sheet here

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Speaker 1: and they're all in the top seven for going over

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Speaker 1: their point totals against the Rockets. Number two is Tatum.

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Speaker 1: Number three is Brown. I'm just gonna stay with Tatum. Okay,

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Speaker 1: just going to stay with Tatum. And we casted it

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Speaker 1: last time. It's twenty four and a half. The projection

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Speaker 1: is twenty seven and a half, three point to value.

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Speaker 2: Let's just stay with.

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Speaker 1: Jason Tatum over for a quarter unit at minus one

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Speaker 1: oh eight and then the second play at at a

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Speaker 1: quarter unit is Serge Ibaka. So Serge Ibaka is number

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Speaker 1: four on the betting Pros cheat sheet. Sure, Sergebaca scored

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Speaker 1: sixteen points and had fourteen rebounds in the win over

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Speaker 1: the Clippers. For sorry, the win for the Clippers over

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Speaker 1: the Warriors one thirty to one oh four on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: and the total for this game is up there right

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Speaker 1: now for the Clippers taking on the New Orleans Pelicans.

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Speaker 1: So when you start looking at totals at two thirty

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Speaker 1: six and a half, okay to thirty six and a half,

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Speaker 1: Serge of Bacca has been playing pretty well. And there

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Speaker 1: was a story in the I think it was La Times.

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Speaker 1: I just read one of the La papers on Serge

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Speaker 1: Ibaka's what they've been using, how they've been utilizing him

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Speaker 1: and what they expected him coming out of the All

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Speaker 1: Star Break, and how he's going to be a bigger

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Speaker 1: part of the offense for them going forward because he

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Speaker 1: hasn't had as big of an impact as they want

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00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,720
Speaker 1: to have him to have on their offenses. So he's

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Speaker 1: averaging eleven point two points per game, and he's a

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Speaker 1: guy who can get hot and can really be a

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Speaker 1: big part. He scored zero points in the game before

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Speaker 1: the All Star Break, so he wasn't very happy about that.

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Speaker 1: So we scored sixteen points last time out for the zero.

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Speaker 1: It was seven, fifteen, twelve, and thirteen. So the number

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Speaker 1: for Serge Ibaka is ten and a half. Okay, ten

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00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,440
Speaker 1: and a half points. This is against the team in

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Speaker 1: New Orleans that really they don't play much post defense

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Speaker 1: as we know, and they don't play defensally at all. Okay,

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Speaker 1: two thirty six and a half rebounds, free throws, Just

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Speaker 1: score eleven points. Sergeabaka averages eleven points. Just get to

356
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Speaker 1: your average and we cash with Sergeabaka. I like this

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Speaker 1: prop a lot given the total. As long as he

358
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Speaker 1: stays out a foul trouble, I think Serge Ibaka goes

359
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Speaker 1: over pretty easily ten and a half points at miss

360
00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 1: one to eight and FanDuel.

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Speaker 2: Other books also similar odds.

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00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,800
Speaker 1: Similar juice for Sergebaca over ten and a half points

363
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Speaker 1: tonight here on the.

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Speaker 2: Prop bedsheet sheet.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so to excuse me to recap all the plays

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00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,720
Speaker 1: ROM plus two hundred top ten at the players watching

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Speaker 1: that Illinois plus two seventy five to win the Big

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Speaker 1: ten play in Ohio State in the title game.

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Speaker 2: We're watching that.

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Speaker 1: We got LSU plus six against Alabama, Houston mins thirteen

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Speaker 1: and a half again Cincinnati, we got Boston minus ten,

372
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Speaker 1: Mass one ten and a half a unit, Jason Tatum

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Speaker 1: over twenty four and a half points, and Serge Ebaca

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Speaker 1: over ten and a half points. For the plays for Sunday,

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Speaker 1: my name is Matt Parolt. You can follow me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at sports Talk Matt ten and one. Over the

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Speaker 1: last two days, let's keep the hot streak going. Hopefully

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Speaker 1: we're back here talking about another good day on a Sunday.

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Speaker 2: My name is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: Every morning it's the Daily Juice Podcast, brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM. Right here on bettingpros dot com.