1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 2: Kelsey Beryl she joins us today from JP Morgan asset management. Tariffs. 7 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: Everybody's worried about substituting. I'm going to substitute for my 8 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 2: overpriced tomatoes from Mexico, I would suggest, and I'm seeing 9 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:46,279 Speaker 2: it percolating that far more. Here is the income effect 10 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 2: of tariffs slowing economy, damp and wage growth. And that 11 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: what do bonds do? Bill's notes and bonds given a 12 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: slowing income effect, a dampened income. 13 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,959 Speaker 3: Effect, right, So, I mean, the data that we've been 14 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 3: seeing suggests that the US economy is moderating, and maybe 15 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 3: even slowing a little bit more aggressively than the term moderating. 16 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 3: So if I look at real consumption spending over the 17 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 3: first six months of the year, it's annualized negative for 18 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 3: the first time since twenty ten. 19 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 2: Is that price up yield down? 20 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 4: I would say, so? 21 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 3: I mean, I think that is the reaction in the 22 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 3: bond market that you're seeing, which is that yields have 23 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 3: been somewhat range bound this year. But you know, when 24 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 3: data does come in weaker than expected, like the payrolls 25 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 3: report we got on Friday, you see an aggressive move 26 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 3: lower in yields. And that's been a function of this low, higher, 27 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 3: low fire labor market the way that we've been describing it, 28 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 3: which is not necessarily that companies are laying people off, 29 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 3: but they are having them work less hours, and they 30 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 3: are holding off on investment plans until they get more certainty. 31 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 3: And I think the question is going forward, we do 32 00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 3: have a bit more clarity on the future outlook. We 33 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 3: have the one big beautiful Bell Act. We also have 34 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 3: some sense of tariffs, right, they're not going away. 35 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 4: Maybe the average. 36 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 3: Effective tariff rate is going to end up being around 37 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,399 Speaker 3: fifteen percent, between fifteen and twenty percent. Yeah, it's not great, 38 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 3: but at least we know what it is. The question 39 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 3: is do you see a reacceleration in some of this 40 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 3: activity now that things are slightly more stable, or is 41 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 3: there actually more damage to come from the tariffs. 42 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,079 Speaker 4: And we've been complacent because. 43 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 3: It's just a very or longer lag than people anticipated 44 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 3: between higher costs and slower demand and the impact on 45 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 3: the economy. 46 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 5: You're right, I mean, I think some of the earnings 47 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 5: outlooks we've seen from some of these companies are there's 48 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 5: still cautiously optimistic, but that I think that's kind of 49 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 5: a win. I mean, because you don't really know what 50 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 5: a fifteen to twenty percent tariff's going to do to 51 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 5: your bound sheet. 52 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 6: So do we take credit risk out there? 53 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 5: Are you guys sensing that it's time to take some 54 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 5: credit risk or taking credit risk is okay? 55 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean we have been taking credit risk. 56 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 3: We have been stress testing all of the companies that 57 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 3: we own, assessing how they would handle ten percent tariffs 58 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 3: twenty percent tariffs, and the credit analysts have all come 59 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 3: back to us and they've said, you know, it's. 60 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 4: Not great for earnings, it's not great for revenue. 61 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 3: We're projecting a slowdown, but we're not projecting our earnings 62 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 3: or revenue turn negative, and we're not projecting that this 63 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 3: is necessarily going to cause a recession. And I will say, 64 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 3: at the same time, expectations have been lowered, and so 65 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 3: when Q two earnings have come out, it's been a 66 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 3: clear beat and now we're refocusing from the negative impacts 67 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 3: of tariffs to the potential positive impacts associated with one 68 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 3: big beautiful bill. 69 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 4: So a lot more companies are talking about. 70 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 3: Upgrading free cash flow estimates because of expensing of R 71 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 3: and D or interest deductibility, or lower emission standards for 72 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 3: auto companies. 73 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 5: So, I mean, I guess one of the questions here is, 74 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 5: I'm how does that balance out because kind of maybe 75 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 5: the dampening effects of terrorists, but maybe the pro. 76 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: Growth effects of some of this one big beautiful bill 77 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 2: that you mentioned. 78 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 5: So net is you look at the twenty twenty six 79 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 5: kind of how's how's the outlook out there for you? 80 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, net net, our base case has been 81 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 3: subtrend growth, and I think that our confidence around that 82 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 3: sub trend base case has grown. 83 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 4: Because of a lot of these offsets. 84 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 2: Yep. 85 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 4: You know, you have the tariffs, but you have the 86 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 4: one big beautiful bill. 87 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,720 Speaker 3: You know, you also think about the concerns earlier in 88 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 3: the year with the deficits, right, there was a lot 89 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:42,160 Speaker 3: of concerns about expanding deficits. Now we have the trajectory 90 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 3: for debt growth based on the new tax legislation, but 91 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 3: we also know that we have a lot of tariff 92 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 3: revenue coming in. 93 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 4: So what have we gotten and fixed incomes so far 94 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 4: this year? 95 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 3: Well, stimulus maybe, but it's a it's a carry environment, 96 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,359 Speaker 3: so one where we started with high all in yields 97 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 3: within fixed income at the start of the year, and 98 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 3: with yield range of bound and spreads range bound. I 99 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 3: look at returns you're to date on the USAG four 100 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 3: point seven percent. That's essentially that carry environment that we 101 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:15,799 Speaker 3: were kind of expecting. 102 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 2: When we went into hit your twelve months forward view 103 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 2: on IG paper, Then can you make six to seven 104 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 2: percent in fixed income? 105 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 3: It will obviously depend how much risk free rates fall 106 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 3: and how much spreads narrow from here, But even if 107 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 3: we just stay range bound, you can expect the twelve 108 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 3: month board return on your investment grade portfolio to look 109 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 3: similar to your starting yield. 110 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 2: I'm so glad I don't have a real job with 111 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 2: a real job Kelsey burrowchip a real job. This morning, 112 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 2: I just kicked the cross curds that my head's spinning. 113 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 1: Folks, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us 114 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen 115 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 1: on Apple, Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business 116 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: up or watch us live on YouTube. 117 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 2: John stolf he's with Oppenheimer and Company. He is the 118 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 2: one who said you have courage stay in the market 119 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 2: in October two times ago, three times ago, four times ago, 120 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 2: April passed. Paul, I just framed it out. You can 121 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 2: do this on the Bloomberg terminal. Thank you, mister Secunda. 122 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 2: And it's simple. The Stolfus call from here is up 123 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 2: eleven point seven percent out one year, and that gets 124 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 2: you out to seventy one hundred. So I interpolated. That's 125 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 2: all we do that for John, I interpolated down forty 126 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 2: seven thousand plus on that. It's a double digit lift, 127 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: but not too double digity. You're seventy one hundred. People 128 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 2: think you're nuts. Explain why you're not nuts. 129 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 6: Well, thanks Tom. 130 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 7: It always great to be on Bloomberg Radio Surveillance with 131 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 7: you and. 132 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 6: Paul and Lisa. I just want to say that where 133 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 6: we are, the fundamentals look good. You know, it's in 134 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 6: spite of everything. It would appear that when you think about. 135 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 7: It, it's almost about it's about seventeen eighteen years ago 136 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 7: since the financial crisis, and corporations aided by technology significantly, 137 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 7: as well as the Federal Reserve, the ben bernanking legacy 138 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 7: as we call it, have been able to manage a 139 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 7: lot of situations, including so far this tariff regime as 140 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 7: it comes in. 141 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 2: But the bear people, the guys that say stolefus is nuts, 142 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 2: They're going to say, Okay, it's great, but at some 143 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 2: point it ends, and we have a correction done ten percent, 144 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 2: a bear market down eighteen percent, or a normal collapse 145 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 2: down thirty five percent. Where is that emotion out there? 146 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 6: Well, that's a good question, you know. 147 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 7: I think what it is is that bearishness always exists. 148 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 7: There's a lot of people who feel that the Fed 149 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 7: has maintained rates too high, their benchmark rate too high 150 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 7: for too long. On the other hand, you know, when 151 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 7: we look at it, what we say is they raised 152 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 7: eleven times and they paused I think about fourteen or 153 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 7: fifteen times now and no recession, so remarkably sensitive to 154 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 7: their dual mandate, which is accessionally essentially giving us what 155 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 7: we would have to say is an economic growth at 156 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 7: a sustainable pace without untoward levels of inflation, with also 157 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 7: not disrupting the job market. 158 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 6: Although we're seeing jobs slow, but you. 159 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 7: Know, Tom, it just looks like it's it really is 160 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 7: a mid cycle. 161 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 6: Extension by monetary. 162 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 7: Policy that makes you know when you look at the 163 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 7: economic cycle, it's as wide as the Amazon, not the 164 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 7: outfit that delivers the boxes to your home, but rather 165 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 7: the Amazon river. And this has been going on for 166 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 7: quite a while. 167 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: And this is the underestimation of American productivity an American. 168 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 6: And we saw a nice pick up there today. 169 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 7: You've got AI that appears to be and what we 170 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 7: would say is a watershed period in terms. 171 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 2: Of two enthusiastic for the showing. 172 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 5: John, reading through your notes, something jumped out of me. 173 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 5: Sometimes it seems to us that quite a few folks 174 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 5: probably don't know what the best performing SMP five sector 175 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 5: is year to date. I happen to know because I 176 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 5: have a Bloomberg terminine front. 177 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 6: Me no industrials. 178 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 5: What does that tell you about this market? 179 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 7: Oh? 180 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 2: What it tells us is. 181 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 7: That you've got you've got a broadening in the rally, 182 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 7: which we began to look at and expect last year. 183 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 7: In the fourth quarter and even earlier in that we 184 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:31,719 Speaker 7: were saying this rally is broadening. 185 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 6: A lot of denial about that. 186 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 7: Everyone, Oh it's just bag seven and it's just ooh, 187 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 7: it's just so narrow. But you've got if you look 188 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 7: at it on a year to date, industrials is up 189 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:43,559 Speaker 7: fourteen point. 190 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 6: Four percent, outperforming the benchmark. That's up seven. 191 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 7: The underlying bench Wroin goes up seven point eight, communications 192 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 7: services up thirteen point nine, info Tech up thirteen point 193 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 7: seven eight. 194 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 6: And then utilities up twelve point eight. That's a defensive. 195 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 7: After that, you've got financials really quite a bit of 196 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 7: a value sector seven point three. 197 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 6: Materials my gosh, five point it. 198 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 7: Really this is Staples up five percent, real estate limpied 199 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 7: along up one point five seven. 200 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 2: Energy's negative. 201 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 7: Consumer discretionary is down nearly two percent, health tears down 202 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 7: five But those are understandable at least at this point. 203 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 7: With yet we think consumer discretionary is improving in performance considerably. 204 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 7: I mean, you look at this, you also think, has 205 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,680 Speaker 7: this been a dramatic overbought kind of rally? And we 206 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 7: will say from the low of April eighth of this year, 207 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 7: you know, info tech is up fifty over fifty percent 208 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 7: as a sector, Communication services up thirty three point six, 209 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 7: but industrials up twenty nine point five four and consumer 210 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 7: discretionary up twenty seven. I won't belabor going. 211 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 6: Through all of these, but my point is that looks wild. 212 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 7: But then take it from the February nineteenth peak and 213 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 7: the S and p's own up three point twenty seven percent, 214 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 7: infotech's up eleven, and change industrials up eight point seven again. 215 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 7: Second best performed utilities, third best performing ZECHERP six. 216 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 2: So what we. 217 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 7: Say is you're beginning to see this broadening in the rally. 218 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 7: Small and mids are still pretty brutally traded. On a 219 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 7: given day when the traders are just getting taking some profits, 220 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 7: and large caps if things, if if the news flow 221 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 7: isn't worrying, they go into smalls and mids and bid 222 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 7: them up a little bit. We think that requires the 223 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 7: FED cut, and we think that's that's more likely than 224 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,559 Speaker 7: not in September as a result of those jobs numbers 225 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 7: and Powell has talked about for a long time the 226 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 7: importance of the dual mandate and the sensitivity towards that 227 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 7: dual mandate would tell us, you know, probably about a 228 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 7: twenty five BIPs, maybe even a fifty BIPs. 229 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,680 Speaker 5: Got what have you seen from corporate American terms of 230 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 5: earnings so far this. 231 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 7: Squad gosh when it comes to Ernie's I was just 232 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:00,079 Speaker 7: I was just looking at the EA page and I 233 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 7: think it's up nearly twelve percent earnings growth. 234 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 6: You've got three sectors that are double digit. 235 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 7: Returns. That's off the top of my head. That's tech, communications, services. 236 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 2: And financials. 237 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 7: You've only got one negative, and I think that's a 238 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 7: negative double digit earnings growth. I think that's energy and 239 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 7: effectively You've got eight positive earnings growth, three negative. 240 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 6: This is remarkably healthy. 241 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 7: But we really think a lot of it has to 242 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 7: do like Jimi Hendrix used to say, are you experienced. Indeed, 243 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 7: managements of corporations and the US consumer are more experienced 244 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 7: to dealing with waters that need attention to navigate and 245 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 7: have the tools through technology. 246 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 6: Just think of the communications. I've been to this business right. 247 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 7: Since nineteen eighty three, So I remember when there wasn't 248 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 7: a Bloomberg, when there wasn't a Bloomberg News, there wasn't 249 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 7: all these different we have day people know, let. 250 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 2: Me reintroduce John Stolphus with US. He has an acclaimed 251 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 2: bullmarket call. He has nailed what we've seen over the 252 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 2: last number of years. He's with the venerable Oppenheimer and 253 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 2: Company's chief investment strategists. You mentioned James Hendrix and all 254 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 2: of this. Were we better off when we were in 255 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 2: the office looking at the back section of the Wall 256 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 2: Street Journal in earnings's revenue, net income shares, and when 257 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 2: you went to get a cup of senka or post 258 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 2: him or escafe, you risk tripping over the value line 259 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 2: on the floor. Were we better back then in terms 260 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 2: of having the knowledge and conviction to stay in the market. 261 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 6: I don't think so. And in fact, the change that 262 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 6: we have seen very. 263 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 7: Much, especially amongst private investors, is private investors used to 264 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 7: get into the bullmarket usually after it was up. This 265 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 7: is just anecdotal ratecall, but probably ten or fifteen percent. 266 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 6: Everybody's talking about it. If you don't own stocks. 267 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 2: One day, okay. Let the bottom line is everybody's managing 268 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,319 Speaker 2: their own retirement, got it? And that's the sea change here. 269 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 6: I think that's what it is. It's serious investing by 270 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 6: the private investor. 271 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,559 Speaker 7: It doesn't mean they still don't have plays that they do, 272 00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 7: whether it's a you know, the mag seven or God 273 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 7: helps the memes, But when you look at it, it 274 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 7: is it adds support to this bull market in that 275 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 7: you've got intermediate and long term investors who are looking 276 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 7: for the babies that get get tossed out with the 277 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 7: bathwater on pullbacks rather than buying dips blindly. 278 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 6: And they're in it for the longer haul because multi. 279 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 7: Generations now from from the boomers all the way to 280 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 7: the newer younger generations, have. 281 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 6: A realization that social security. 282 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 7: Is not likely to give anywhere near the retirement percentage 283 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 7: of income, and as it once did for their great grandparents, 284 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 7: their grandparents, and certainly for their and for their parents, 285 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 7: and so people need to provide for themselves, and the 286 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 7: market offers an opportunity. 287 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 5: John Tom has his focus on the VIX and right 288 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 5: now it's pretty quiescent around sixteen times. But boy, this 289 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 5: year's been anything but. In the s and P five 290 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 5: hundred with it twenty percent declined there in April with 291 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 5: the terroriffs, but then boy, nearly a thirty percent rebound 292 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 5: off that low, all in seven months. 293 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 6: We don't see that very often, do we No? 294 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 7: And I think once again, I think that is the 295 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 7: It is the ability of the market to discount data 296 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 7: that crosses the proverbial transom on any given day, whether 297 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 7: it's it's economic data, whether it has to do with 298 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 7: a report related to the management of a corporation, or 299 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 7: policy change or considerations upont all this stuff happens relatively fast. 300 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 7: And if you look at the if you look at 301 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 7: the chart, it just looks like whenever the VIX gets 302 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 7: too sleepy, you know, you get your you become vulnerable 303 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 7: to see a bit of a spike somewhere along the line. 304 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 7: But the reality is the spikes have been lower of 305 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 7: late the pattern. I'm not a technical strategist and a 306 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 7: fundamental strategist, but we look at the vics because when 307 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 7: it gets too sleepy, get ready, you know, and then 308 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 7: be prepared to instead of running for the hills based 309 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 7: on the fundamentals, look for good quality stocks and cassis. 310 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 2: To do with MAG seven now, I mean it, I 311 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 2: own MAG seven. I don't want to sell it. What 312 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 2: does John stolf To say, I don't own them? Should I? 313 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 2: I mean, what do you do with MEG seven for 314 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 2: the flavors of regret out there? 315 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 7: Now? Well, we do say we think you do need 316 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 7: to own them because we think they are an intermediate 317 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 7: to longer term story because of the deeply embedded nature 318 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 7: of technology in the lives of both consumers and business. 319 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 7: But it also means if you look at just our 320 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 7: little box that we put every week at our piece, 321 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 7: where we look at the S and P five hundred, 322 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 7: we don't rate our sectors either overweight or underweight, but 323 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 7: we rate them outperform, market perform or a below or 324 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 7: you know, underperformed. Rather at when we look at technology itself, 325 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 7: what we say on infotech, it's about thirty percent waiting 326 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 7: I think in the benchmark, so we say twenty five percent. 327 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 6: As a conversation point. For an advisor and their client, 328 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 6: they may want much less, they may have more. It 329 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 6: depends upon their tolerance to risk. 330 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 2: One thing you mentioned the economist James Hendrix. Yes, okay, 331 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 2: I don't think people know his history that this guy 332 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 2: came up with foundational blues. I mean everybody knows what's 333 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 2: stock and all that, but he came up foundational blues. 334 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 2: Literally he was the opening band as a kid for 335 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 2: the Isisley Brothers a million years ago. I mean the 336 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 2: blues foundation. 337 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 7: Was something oh spectacular. And when you consider his not 338 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 7: only his lead guitar playing, but the comping the. 339 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 6: Cops O Rich, I mean it was. 340 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 7: It was like very very central to what would be 341 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 7: the Memphis kind of sound. 342 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 2: He was part of that. 343 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 7: I mean the cross you know, whether you consider James 344 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 7: Burton or Jimmy Hendricks. 345 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 6: The comping just fabulous, just fabulous. 346 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 2: It's great. Is that enough? Guitar, John John Stolphus, thank 347 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 2: you so much. Congratulations and really one of the great calls. 348 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 2: I pull it in with Ralph and Kompora ed Yardnny 349 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 2: has been brilliant. Out of Bullmark, it's been. Bolski's been okay. 350 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 2: I mean I don't sun no, he's you know he 351 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 2: likes the Vikings well you know it's an asterisk, but okay, 352 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 2: he's been okay, and John storph has killed it. App 353 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: go as well. 354 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 355 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 356 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 357 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 358 00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 359 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 2: This is the conversation of the day for people worried 360 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:07,399 Speaker 2: about Transatlantic confidence. Mark doubting is with Blue Bay Asset 361 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:11,400 Speaker 2: Management in the heart of COVID. They did an agreement 362 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 2: with the Royal Bank of Canada. It is OURBC Blue 363 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 2: Bay asset Management. He has been a student of our 364 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:23,920 Speaker 2: greater opinion, our economics, our finance, our investment around credit 365 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 2: for decades. Mark, what's the level of confidence in the 366 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 2: city this morning that we can get beyond this tariff? 367 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 2: This tariff Thursday? What's the confidence level forward? 368 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 8: So I'd say that we're actually in a reasonable position 369 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 8: at the moment stateside, when we look towards the coming 370 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 8: year in twenty twenty six, I think in this respect 371 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 8: that there's a real sense that into the year ahead 372 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 8: we're probably going to see lower taxes, lower rates, less regulation, 373 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 8: and that's speaks to a better outcome for. 374 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 9: The coming year. Albeit in the short term. 375 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 8: We think that in the short term there could be 376 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 8: some softness in data, as we saw with the payrolls 377 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 8: numbers last week, as some of these sort of tariffs 378 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 8: and the past uncertainty impacts the data in the second 379 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 8: half of the year. So short term i'd say things 380 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 8: look a bit bumpy. Further out, it looks a lot better. 381 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 8: Right by and large, I'd say that markets are looking 382 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 8: pretty pretty cheerful. 383 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, part to the observation you had that all of 384 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 2: a sudden, August has a certain pace to it for 385 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 2: New York. 386 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 5: M and A sure, and we're starting to see some 387 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 5: animal spirits a little bit, and also in the IPO market. So, Mark, 388 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 5: as you think about it, how are you surprised that 389 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 5: despite all the tariff headwinds, crosswinds, I'm not sure kind 390 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 5: of whip they are depending on what country you are, 391 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 5: that markets are performing relatively well here servely with the 392 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 5: stock markets hitting all time highs here. 393 00:20:58,480 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 6: Yeah. 394 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 8: Well, I think in terms of the US stop market, 395 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 8: it comes back to earnings and earnings growth have been solid, 396 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:04,479 Speaker 8: hasn't it. 397 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 9: I mean, it's looking pretty good. 398 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 8: And from that perspective, it also feels like all through 399 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,880 Speaker 8: the year the stock market has been climbing a wall 400 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 8: of worry. I think some of the fears that were 401 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 8: being expressed back in April have really melted into the background. 402 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 8: And having got the budget done, having got the tariffs 403 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 8: through without a big sort of pushback in a retaliatory sense, effectively, 404 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 8: what the US has done here is it's effectively managed 405 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 8: to raise taxes pretty materially. We think that the tax 406 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 8: take on revenues from tariffs will about four hundred and 407 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,680 Speaker 8: fifty billion, which is up three hundred and seventy billion 408 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 8: year over year. 409 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 9: That's around one point two percent of GDP. 410 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,439 Speaker 8: So this has been a decent outcome for the US 411 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 8: and so in many respects, I don't think it should 412 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 8: be a big surprise that US stops have been performing 413 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:57,120 Speaker 8: reasonably well. 414 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 2: I can see you in your class with Skidelski at work. 415 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 2: I can just see it right now. What does this 416 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 2: do to the income generation of our trade allies? I mean, 417 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 2: do we see slowness in Europe, the United Kingdom, in 418 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 2: Asia off of these trade agreements? 419 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 8: So ostensibly yes, we should see a bit of a 420 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 8: I mean, in as much as the US is having 421 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 8: a win, here is a relatively speaking, a trade war 422 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 8: loss for other countries elsewhere in the world. I think 423 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 8: the big question though, and this is the big question 424 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 8: that the FED is also asking, is that if you've 425 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,919 Speaker 8: raised tariffs by one point two percent of GDP, who's 426 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,160 Speaker 8: footing the bill than Are you going to be US 427 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 8: consumers or is it going to see overseas producers? And 428 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 8: the mix of that, I think is really going to 429 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 8: determine where Mark is go in the months ahead. 430 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 2: We're going to continue here with Mark Dodding, RBC Blue 431 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 2: Bay thrillly could be with us today with just wonderful 432 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 2: Transatlantic perspective, really gets perspective on economics right now. A 433 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 2: productivity series coming out unit labor costs has my attention. 434 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 2: And also we see claims that two two two is 435 00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 2: a survey two hundred twenty two thousand. Of course a 436 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,439 Speaker 2: revision will be important, made more important by the jobs 437 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 2: report that we saw today. Further data at ten o'clock 438 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 2: this morning. Let's go to it. The economic data coming 439 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,679 Speaker 2: out right now. We use e CEO go, which is 440 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 2: a good thing to do. Unit labor costs come in 441 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,360 Speaker 2: and tick higher than the survey one point five percent 442 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:36,199 Speaker 2: is one point six percent non firm productivity shows a 443 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:40,679 Speaker 2: productive America. Two percent statistic comes in at two point 444 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 2: four percent. Revisions on claims flat in a more difficult 445 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 2: claims slightly, ever so slightly. Two two two comes in 446 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 2: with a two twenty six claims as well. I don't 447 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 2: see a lot of you know, a lot of meat 448 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 2: there for anybody, Paul, No, I don't. 449 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 5: Know any initial jobas claims a little bit higher than 450 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,919 Speaker 5: expectations and a little bit of a vision higher last time. 451 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 5: We'll keep an eye on that. Continuing claims a little 452 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 5: bit higher than expectations, but we had a revision downward 453 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 5: last month. 454 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 2: So there surveillance data check audible gold up twenty five 455 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 2: dollars three four five sixty dollars to a record ee 456 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 2: on gold. Had no idea what that has to do 457 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 2: with economics Commonwealth going, Tom, why are you doing gold 458 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 2: during our economics? Commonwealth? We thank them for our for 459 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 2: all of Bloomberg's surveillance. Bloomberg surveillance. This morning brought you 460 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 2: by Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent financial advisors 461 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 2: with a two to one advisor to staff ratio, small 462 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 2: firm Attenatus, big Advisor Impact. Go to Commonwealth dot com 463 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:53,640 Speaker 2: Commonwealth dot com to learn about their consultative support and technology. Paul, 464 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,959 Speaker 2: why don't you bring in mister Dowding in London? 465 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 5: Sure absolutely, Marked Outing stays with the CIO of RBC 466 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 5: Blue Bay Asset Management. Hey Mark, The Bank of England 467 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,400 Speaker 5: cut interest rates to the lowest level today in over 468 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 5: two years. What do you make of that and how 469 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 5: do you think that may or may not influence the 470 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 5: US Federal Reserve. 471 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,120 Speaker 8: So I think the picture in the UK is rather 472 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 8: different to that in the US. The economy here is 473 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 8: rather limping along. We've really been sort of struggling for 474 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 8: a few years in economic terms. 475 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 9: It's interesting just hearing that sort. 476 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 8: Of productivity data that we hear in the US productivity 477 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 8: at two point four, because we see strong investment in 478 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 8: the US, because we see those productivity gains in technology. 479 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 8: By contrasts, in the UK we have next to no 480 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 8: productivity growth whatsoever. So that's why UK rates are coming 481 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 8: down because the economy is slow. At the same time 482 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,679 Speaker 8: here in the UK actually our worries that inflation is 483 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 8: too high. I think in the US it's a very 484 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,920 Speaker 8: different situation. We've actually gone an economy that has been 485 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 8: very healthy for an extended period of time. Is more 486 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 8: question of whether the FED ease rates, because the economy 487 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 8: could go faster than it currently is if there isn't 488 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 8: any inflation to worry about. 489 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,119 Speaker 2: Mark, when you were at Warwick and I don't know 490 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 2: if you you know you served under Skadelski and work economics, 491 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 2: did you actually read the one twenty one pages of Skidelski, 492 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 2: John Maynard Keynes. 493 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 8: Oh, hell, no, I mean I was an active a 494 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 8: student right hetos to anyone he did. 495 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,120 Speaker 9: He made it through all of that. 496 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 8: I think my back in the days when I had 497 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 8: hair on my head, I was probably too interested in 498 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 8: the parties more than the elections, but it certainly gave me. 499 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 9: A good grounding that pace. It's a fine institution. 500 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,119 Speaker 2: Mark Downing, thank you so much. I bring that up 501 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 2: for Lord Skadelski was just hugely supportive of the advent 502 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 2: of all of this, and we thank him in the 503 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:59,080 Speaker 2: University of Work for their support in our early years. 504 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 2: Markdowning see Blue Bay at Capitol. 505 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 506 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:14,399 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 507 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,360 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 508 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. 509 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 2: Joining us now foundational. You know it's Stolfhsen. It's sort 510 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,679 Speaker 2: of the same thing as John Stolfus. Joe Carson has 511 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 2: pretty much seen it all. He's a former chief economist 512 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 2: Alliance Bernstein, publisher of The Carson Report. I don't, Joe, 513 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,959 Speaker 2: are you retired? You're not retired, are you? 514 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 10: Uh? Semi retired. 515 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 2: Semi he's only working seventy hours a week. He's cut 516 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,479 Speaker 2: it back from eighty. Joe, let's do this with you. 517 00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:48,360 Speaker 2: You're the first one I've talked to. I got an 518 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:54,160 Speaker 2: inflation report next week, Okay, I got a labor economy struggling. 519 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 2: The consensus is inflation is I think you called his persistent. 520 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 2: Which is more important the inflation report next week or 521 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 2: the next claims number on labor. 522 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,399 Speaker 10: Well, they're both connected in some ways. Certainly, the terriff 523 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,440 Speaker 10: related the impact on goods prices are starting to come through, 524 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 10: and it'll come through even more over the next seven months. 525 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 10: It takes time to show up on the shelves and 526 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 10: what people pay and what companies pay. But the I 527 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 10: think the labor data that you've seen recently, particularly the 528 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 10: small job gains, as a reflection that companies are very 529 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 10: hard having a hard time to plan how to operate 530 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 10: in this environment where tariffs go in and out or 531 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 10: up and down, and they're not knowing where they're going 532 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 10: to go next. 533 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 5: So putting it all together here, I mean Tom likes 534 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 5: to talk about the resilience of the US consumer, the 535 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 5: resilience of companies in general, is are these tariffs something 536 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 5: that we all can kind of deal with and get 537 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 5: through and get past without seeing any significant economic slowdown 538 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 5: or pick up an inflation. 539 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 10: Well, that's very unlikely. I think you've already seen a 540 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 10: significant slowdown in hiring. That means companies are not investing 541 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 10: or planning to grow their companies because they increased costs. 542 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 10: You know, one thing that's being missed is that in 543 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 10: the first nine months of this fiscal year, corporate tax 544 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 10: collections were off thirty billion from a year ago based 545 00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 10: on higher expenses, and that's tied to the tariffs. The 546 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 10: inflation rate will pick up and that's going to hurt 547 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 10: consumer spending and make consumers more cautious on what they do. 548 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 10: So it's not a zero sum game. When you raise terraffts, 549 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 10: it's like putting the tax on the consumer and businesses. 550 00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 10: And also keep in mind the initial intent of terrafts 551 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 10: was to bring back many factoring or increased manufacturing relative 552 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 10: to where it was before. But the problem is that 553 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 10: many of our companies operate on a global basis, not 554 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 10: with a national footprint. So putting cost increases on a 555 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 10: lot of materials and supply raises the cost of production 556 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 10: for them. It makes them uncompetitive in the world. So 557 00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 10: it's it's a really odd policy and I think it's 558 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 10: going to have bad consequences down the road. 559 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 5: We had some week labor data last week, and then 560 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 5: we had the year of labor systics as commissioner effectively 561 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 5: fired by the president. What did you make of all 562 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,240 Speaker 5: that noise last week? 563 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:47,600 Speaker 10: Well, let me say three things in this The politics 564 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 10: around labor market data or economic data has been around 565 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 10: a long time. Presidents have always complained about the interpretation 566 00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 10: of data, but never the actual data itself. Okay, one thing. Second, 567 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 10: the fact that the Treasurer Secretary Vesent and the National 568 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:13,000 Speaker 10: Economic Council Director Hassett did not defend the BLS and 569 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 10: this is shocking, Okay, I've never seen that before in 570 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:21,080 Speaker 10: my long career. And the third point is what the 571 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 10: administration was able to do is flip the switch. 572 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 2: Here. 573 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 10: How many reports have been on the firing of the 574 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 10: BLS commissioner and how many reports on what the actual 575 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 10: data says. They don't want you to talk about the 576 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 10: data because the data shows labor markets are struggling and 577 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 10: companies are struggling. That was a message there, But it's 578 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 10: been blunted, so the financial press, you guys in particular, 579 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 10: have a big job to tell the truth going forward. 580 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 2: Joe, thank you so much, Joe Carson with us formula 581 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 2: with the Lions Bernstein there and the comments that mister 582 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 2: Hassett are clearly out in the zeitgeist. We'll be addressing 583 00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 2: that on the coming days. Here. 584 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 585 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 586 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 1: Atto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 587 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 588 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 589 00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 2: Right now to the newspapers, Lisa Matteo, Okay, I. 590 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 11: Want to start with the New York Times, because sorcerer 591 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 11: saying that President Trump weighing getting involved in the New 592 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,360 Speaker 11: York City mayor's race to help try and stop Zora Mundami. 593 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 11: So what he's reportedly done, this is according to the 594 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 11: Times who've spoke to people. They said, he's picked the 595 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 11: brain of a Republican congressman, New York businessman about the 596 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 11: crowded field, right, who has the best chance of beating Mamdami. 597 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 11: He also was briefed by Mark Penn. He's a poster 598 00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 11: who worked with Alexa Bill and Hillary Clinton. 599 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:43,440 Speaker 2: Right. 600 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 11: He also Andrew Stein, a former New York City Council president, 601 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 11: a range of polling that's showing that actually for former 602 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 11: Governor Cuomo could still be a competitive factor as an independent. 603 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 6: So what the article does. 604 00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 11: It really raises questions about what the president's involvement in 605 00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,479 Speaker 11: the race would do, saying it could bring like this 606 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 11: new element of unpredictability to something that's already wild, crazy chromo. 607 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 2: And then the last seventy two hours he established the 608 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 2: timeline and he was heated that nothing happens till after 609 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:21,800 Speaker 2: Labor Day. Everybody now is jockeying positioning. It's gonna be fascinating. 610 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,720 Speaker 2: I'll make it up, Paul. The second week of September, Yeah, 611 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:26,360 Speaker 2: when this thing really gets serious. 612 00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, and you know, we kind of keep hearing that 613 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 5: either Mayor Adams or former Governor Cuomo, somebody needs to 614 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 5: maybe bow out so called les the Democratic Party around 615 00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 5: that remaining candidate. So say how that plays out? 616 00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 2: What do you got next? 617 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 11: Okay, this is kind of thinking about what's in your cupboards, 618 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 11: what's in your refrigerator. What's in all that stuff? 619 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:48,640 Speaker 5: Captain crunches. 620 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 6: No, see, that's the problem. 621 00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 11: So this is according to the CDC's Nutrition Survey, sixty 622 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 11: two percent of childhood diets come from highly processed foods. 623 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 11: So we're talking about burgers, pastry, snack, pizza, thing like that. 624 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:05,200 Speaker 11: For adults it was fifty three percent, not as much 625 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 11: but still high. It's it's it's still a dip though 626 00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 11: from about five years ago when the survey was taken. 627 00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 11: But what they're saying is that how you can avoid 628 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 11: these highly processed food is you go to the store 629 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 11: and you look at the label. If there are ingredients 630 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 11: there that are not in your kitchen, then it's probably 631 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:22,640 Speaker 11: highly processed. This is what I do when I go 632 00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:23,480 Speaker 11: to the supermarket. 633 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 2: Yes you do. 634 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,400 Speaker 11: People hate me in the supermarket. 635 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:26,440 Speaker 9: Because I'm the one. 636 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,439 Speaker 5: I think we're crowding hate at home. I mean people 637 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,000 Speaker 5: are like mom brought home. Some more like are we 638 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 5: supposed to eat this stuff? 639 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:32,440 Speaker 2: Kind of thing? 640 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,520 Speaker 11: But some of the okay, so what are some of 641 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:38,040 Speaker 11: like the top ultra process foods? They don't think of sandwiches. Actually, 642 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 11: I love cold cuts, followed by sweet bake goods. Savory snacks. 643 00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,160 Speaker 11: Those were some of the high things. But it's you know, 644 00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 11: it's a serious because doctor's link those ultra processed food 645 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,760 Speaker 11: and modern diabetes and stuff. Right, I'm waking. So that's 646 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 11: the story of this still coming out. No, this next 647 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:54,799 Speaker 11: one's a good one. 648 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:55,960 Speaker 6: Okay. 649 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,759 Speaker 11: College kids they love their Google calendar, right, they call it, 650 00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,600 Speaker 11: that's the slang for it. Okay, So they're using it 651 00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 11: to schedule everything like what time to go to sleep, 652 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:07,800 Speaker 11: what time they eat, if they want. 653 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:08,400 Speaker 6: To go for a walk. 654 00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,880 Speaker 11: But what they're also scheduling is to do is asking 655 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 11: someone on a date. That's actually a new thing hooking up. 656 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,520 Speaker 11: You send someone a Google calendar invite. That's the way 657 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 11: the kids are doing it nowadays. 658 00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:20,919 Speaker 4: Who knew. 659 00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,880 Speaker 11: I mean, they're sending screenshots of their entire calendar, you know, 660 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,560 Speaker 11: color coded and everything, and they're saying, well, if you 661 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 11: can fit into my schedule, then then maybe we can 662 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:29,239 Speaker 11: make something work. 663 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 2: Again, just go to a bar. 664 00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 9: That's how you do it, kids. 665 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:39,640 Speaker 11: But I mean it's kind of impressive or how organized 666 00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:47,360 Speaker 11: they are, but it's a bit much. Quickly, Okay, Top Golf, 667 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,000 Speaker 11: callaway brands, they came out with earnings, right, It was 668 00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 11: an earnings beat. 669 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 4: You know what was a big. 670 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,879 Speaker 11: Thing for them. The big thing was their promotions. They 671 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:59,000 Speaker 11: had frozen margaritas and half off golf during the week, 672 00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:01,799 Speaker 11: so half price during the week. People love that. They 673 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 11: come out, they have a margarita, they're happy. 674 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm working for them, I mean, but I've heard 675 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:07,759 Speaker 5: great things about it. 676 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 6: Top Golf. 677 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:08,680 Speaker 5: I love it. 678 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 2: Yeah. 679 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:09,560 Speaker 8: It's a fun. 680 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 11: Yeah, I have it's very fun. You have food, drinks. 681 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,680 Speaker 6: If you're like sas Hour and you need No I'm 682 00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 6: not a Gulf. 683 00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:23,160 Speaker 2: Top Golf. 684 00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,839 Speaker 5: Oh yeah, but it's a fun time. 685 00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,719 Speaker 2: Thank you, Alsato, thank you, Thank you so much for 686 00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,400 Speaker 2: the newspapers. Greatly appreciated. 687 00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:36,600 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 688 00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 689 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,400 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 690 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:48,319 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 691 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,760 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 692 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.