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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: six five.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Conference Championship Round.

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Speaker 2: Best Bets episode.

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Speaker 1: This is the episode where we will get feedback from

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Speaker 1: the wise guys who listen to the show. We will

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Speaker 1: build our money line Round Robin. We will narrow down

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Speaker 1: our favorite picks across the Championship weekend of games. Because,

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Speaker 1: as our old pal Colin Coward likes to say, there's

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Speaker 1: a sea of money out there. If you want to

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Speaker 1: follow along with our official bets, you can check them

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Speaker 1: out in the award winning Action app by following the

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Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. Let's bring in my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: Mi Compadra, my BFF, Professional Better, Simon Hunter HEADO, Sonyman.

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Speaker 3: How's it going, Chad Brother.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go through this podcast. We're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about these two games. I think our opinions are solidifying.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious to get sharp calls. We're gonna do it

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Speaker 1: a little differently this week. I want you to do

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Speaker 1: a sharp call when we do each game. But it

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Speaker 1: doesn't really matter because we all know that.

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Speaker 2: The NFL is scripted.

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Speaker 1: I think it's just it's a fact, right, we all

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Speaker 1: believe it at this point. So the matchup and the

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Speaker 1: winner has already been set. And let me explain. Just yesterday,

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Speaker 1: Avery Yang, one of our talented editors and writers on

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Speaker 1: the news desk here at Action Network, posted a story

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Speaker 1: about a tweet from the NFL memes account, the very

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Speaker 1: popular NFL memes account, and that account noticed how the

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Speaker 1: logos the colors for the logos of the past two

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Speaker 1: Super Bowls prior to this one match the teams that

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Speaker 1: played in those Super Bowls.

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Speaker 2: No joke.

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Speaker 1: The Rams Bengals super Bowl two years ago, it was

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Speaker 1: orange and yellow when they played. Last year, red and green,

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Speaker 1: Low and behold the Chiefs and Eagles make it. This

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Speaker 1: year it is purple and red. We can expect a

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Speaker 1: Niners Ravens Super Bowl. Also, the bottom collar in the

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Speaker 1: two toned logo has matched the winning team this year.

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Speaker 1: The bottom color is purple.

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Speaker 3: That's what you're working with.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so we know the Ravens are going to win

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: I hope you're right.

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Speaker 1: It's in the script, brother, It's all been written. As

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Speaker 1: a reminder. The Favorite podcast is presented by bet three

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Speaker 1: If you're finding it hard to choose a sign in

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Speaker 1: these games, you are not alone. Evan Abrams, the world

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Speaker 1: famous Evan Abrams. This is the tightest conference. Let us

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Speaker 1: know that this is the tightest conference championship market since

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Speaker 1: twenty ten, and the first time in the past twenty

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Speaker 1: years neither side in the game has received fifty five

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Speaker 1: percent or more of spread tickets. So it is a

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Speaker 1: hard one. We are seeing the line solidify. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: we're doing things a little differently today. We're gonna make

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Speaker 1: SUREARP calls part of the Championship Game's breakdowns. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube. So

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Speaker 1: for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us

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Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network you tube page.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we made a clear last week Simon,

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Speaker 1: that your Simon says is the Ravens. My exact decision

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Speaker 1: was the Niners. So I don't know that we'll do

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Speaker 1: a foxhol this week. We will do a bit balls.

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Speaker 2: I'm fine if we're doubling up here. But let's start with.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City at Baltimore. Baltimore was a three point three

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, Simon.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with shout calls.

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Speaker 3: Hello, who's there?

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Speaker 4: I'm talking Rain, Rain, telephone rang, somebody's saying maybe one

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Speaker 4: should get the win.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no surprise on anyone. I feel like people kind

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Speaker 3: of understood Sunday night. The Pros are gonna like the Ravens,

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Speaker 3: and that's how it's played out right. The money has

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Speaker 3: come in on the Ravens, and a couple of books

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Speaker 3: have moved a plus four now on this Kansas City

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Speaker 3: Chiefs team, and it just makes sense right the pros.

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Speaker 3: I talked to the ones that took the Chiefs. They

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Speaker 3: basically know they had a house some money right now

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Speaker 3: because they won last week, and their view of it was,

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Speaker 3: I'll just wait and let this number keep going up.

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Speaker 3: And I talked to plenty of guys who have grabbed

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Speaker 3: the four. Now. I saw the four come back down,

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Speaker 3: and now that it's gone back up again, it makes

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Speaker 3: me feel a little confident where it's like, Okay, more

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Speaker 3: professionals are on the three and a half with this

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Speaker 3: Ravens team than there are on the Chiefs, and that's

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Speaker 3: simply by just talking to book makers and watching the numbers.

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Speaker 3: Like the fact that you know when you go to

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Speaker 3: bed if there's a four and you wake up the

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Speaker 3: next morning there's still a four, you don't realize how

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Speaker 3: much action went on last night where that number is

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Speaker 3: probably bouncing around all night, just because people are really

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Speaker 3: split on these games, like you said, but it does

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Speaker 3: feel like it's not as split as you would believe,

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Speaker 3: where the professionals for the most part that I've talked

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Speaker 3: to they like the Ravens, And it feels like the

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Speaker 3: public for the most part likes the Chiefs, right, they're

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Speaker 3: of the same view of well, plenty of pro said

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Speaker 3: last week, which is you're getting mahomes as a dog,

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Speaker 3: you take them to the spot. I mean, I haven't

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Speaker 3: already read us all the trends like this is a

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Speaker 3: very profitable spot to take them. So it's interesting where

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Speaker 3: it's split in public perception. But I'd say professionally the

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Speaker 3: pros of the Ravens like, if if you got the three,

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Speaker 3: you're feeling pretty good right now, especially when you're seeing

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Speaker 3: a couple of foursts pop up. But me and you

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Speaker 3: joke all the time, Chad, closing line value is usually

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Speaker 3: loser talk. Me and you had great closing line value

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Speaker 3: last week on Tampa plus seven. A lot of good

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Speaker 3: that Dida. So that's just how it is. Where it's like,

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Speaker 3: if you got the three on the Ravens, you're feeling

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Speaker 3: pretty damn good. The three and a half doesn't scare

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Speaker 3: me as much I thought I would. It's really you know,

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Speaker 3: it really is. If you're a believing the believer in

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs, you might be able to get four and

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Speaker 3: a half by game time. Chad. Like the way this

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Speaker 3: number feels it gets trending. It I feel like it

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Speaker 3: will just keep going up just because you know, the

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Speaker 3: Ravens are getting guys back. Like I've been talking this week,

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Speaker 3: they are getting healthier technically at the right time. Where

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Speaker 3: Kansas City we still don't know. A couple of other

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Speaker 3: guys are banged up. We don't We're still not sure

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Speaker 3: how one hundred percent healthy they're going to be. So

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Speaker 3: the matchup we already know we talked about last show.

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Speaker 3: I really do favorite this Baltimore defense.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: The question was talking a lot of other professionals, It's like,

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Speaker 3: do you really trust Lamar in this spot over my homes?

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Speaker 3: And it's like, I don't really know if I have

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Speaker 3: to really play it that way right, Like Lamar in

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Speaker 3: that second half I talked about, it feels like you

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Speaker 3: kind of found something there, right, this type of confidence

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Speaker 3: where it's like, oh, you can use your legs whenever

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Speaker 3: you want, Lamar, like you don't have to force the

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Speaker 3: throws in there, just play smart. And I mean again,

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Speaker 3: they scored three touchdowns last game. They were just on

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Speaker 3: a total role total control that second half, and the

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Speaker 3: more I go through the Chiefs defense on film, no

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Speaker 3: doubt was impressed with what they've done this season, how

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Speaker 3: good they played, But me and you can't get over

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Speaker 3: the fact they are so weak against the run. Even

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Speaker 3: when they make adjustments in second halfs against teams, teams

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Speaker 3: are still able to move the ball. It just seems

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Speaker 3: like most teams get away from it right like we

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Speaker 3: saw the Josh Allen eventually get forced out to pass

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Speaker 3: the ball because for some reason, once they get down

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Speaker 3: a couple of points to Mahomes, they really do panic.

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Speaker 3: And I don't really see the Ravens changing that. Like

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Speaker 3: They've been consistent all season. The only game when I

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Speaker 3: went through and look through the film that they really

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Speaker 3: panicked and got away from the run was against that

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Speaker 3: Colts team earlier in the year where I believe they

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Speaker 3: might have been a nine point favorite or something crazy

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Speaker 3: like that against Minshew, and Minshew pulled the upset off.

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Speaker 3: That was really early in the season. You watch as

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Speaker 3: the season went along, they never really hit that panic

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Speaker 3: mode again, where even in games that are really close

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Speaker 3: and tight, they stay true to themselves and they still

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Speaker 3: ran the ball. So I'm still trying to stay dug

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Speaker 3: in here. I'm fading Mahomes, but it's definitely I definitely

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Speaker 3: haven't bet as much I thought I was gonna have

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Speaker 3: a bet at this point where it's like I thought

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Speaker 3: I wasn't really gonna hammer this Ravens team. And it

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Speaker 3: is the one the Mahomes effect where it's like it's

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Speaker 3: an uneasy feeling Chad betting against betting against him, especially

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Speaker 3: where Evan gave us that stat he's been down seven

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Speaker 3: plus points in the playoffs nine times or yeah or no?

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Speaker 3: Is it ten times? Evan? And he's eight and two

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Speaker 3: straight up. The only two losses were against Tom Brady.

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Speaker 3: It's just like we never We've never seen anything like

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Speaker 3: it yet. So that's that's the scary part about get

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Speaker 3: betting against them.

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Speaker 2: So a couple things.

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Speaker 1: Number One, I'm calling it now even though it was

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Speaker 1: basically Simon says, it's also going to.

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Speaker 2: Be big balls better the week.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens and I've been thinking about this so much.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate head versus heart debate.

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Speaker 3: Like, yeah, it's that meme. You ever see that meme

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Speaker 3: with the wife or their girlfriends, like in the bed

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Speaker 3: next to the husband, He's like, wonder what he's thinking about.

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Speaker 3: It really is I just cannot stop thinking about this

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Speaker 3: Ravens Chiefs game, like it's just all week, It's all

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Speaker 3: I can think about.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie to you. I woke up this

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Speaker 1: morning and I'm like, I'm no, I'm going to spend

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Speaker 1: the next two hours doing even more research on this game.

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Speaker 1: And I was so excited about it. And the more

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Speaker 1: research I did, the more it points to the Ravens

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Speaker 1: as the right side here the most important matchup in

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Speaker 1: the game. It comes down to how Baltimore's defense handles

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Speaker 1: the middle of the field. That goes from pressure up

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Speaker 1: the middle against Mahomes, because we know that the scariest

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Speaker 1: thing embedding is Mahomes stepping up into the pocket and

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Speaker 1: you don't know where that ball is going to go.

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Speaker 1: Yet you're seeing Mahomes. You can't see the rest of

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Speaker 1: the field on the TV screen. You don't know what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen, and it is so frightening. So their

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Speaker 1: ability to rush from the middle of the line of

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Speaker 1: scrimmage and their ability to defend the middle of the

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Speaker 1: field because the Chiefs are just not an explosive team

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Speaker 1: right and what we saw them do the past two

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Speaker 1: weeks I think is screwing with people's heads because of

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Speaker 1: what they did against Miami and what they did against

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Speaker 1: the Bills when we knew the Bills weren't going to

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Speaker 1: be able to defend the middle of the field. And

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Speaker 1: this Ravens defense is honestly historically great. So is the Niners.

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Speaker 1: By the way, we're going to get to that, but

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Speaker 1: these are two of the best defenses historically in terms

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Speaker 1: of weighted DVOA. I know you don't love DVOA, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of people do so weighted DVOA measuring their

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Speaker 1: success and the schedules they've played, as they've played later

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Speaker 1: in the year, so you're measuring it against real teams

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Speaker 1: strengths and weaknesses as we get later into the year,

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Speaker 1: and who they really are. These are two top ten teams.

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Speaker 1: Ravens are number one and since nineteen eighty and Niners

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Speaker 1: are number eight. So these defenses are great and the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs are missing players right Joe Toney, he's their guard,

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Speaker 1: number one ranked passer past blocker according to Pro Football Focus.

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Speaker 1: He's likely not to play. Tray Smith, other guard, didn't

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Speaker 1: practice on Wednesday because of illness. Isaiah Pacheco didn't practice

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Speaker 1: because of his ankle and toe injuries. So like there's

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Speaker 1: issues in all the places where the Chiefs can't have issues.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and again going back to how it's just a

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Speaker 3: lot of people arguing back and forth this week professionalized,

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Speaker 3: it's just the view is Mahomes in these big moments.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of like the Brady factor where you know,

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Speaker 3: I told you when it came to doing a model

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Speaker 3: and making a number for Brady games, I basically had

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Speaker 3: to throw it out because the model just could not

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Speaker 3: stop underrating Brady and the effect he has on games.

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Speaker 3: And you know, I've talked to plenty of people that speak,

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Speaker 3: but that's their argument for my homes or just like,

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Speaker 3: how can you model his game out when it's just

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Speaker 3: like he breaks all the models, like he wins in

253
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Speaker 3: games and positions he should not be winning in with

254
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Speaker 3: talentless teams, right Like you can say, well, their team

255
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Speaker 3: has talent this year Travis Kelsey's I can't. It's weird

256
00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,240
Speaker 3: because we're about the same age, but he's old in

257
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Speaker 3: football years, Like this man is clearly over the hill.

258
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Speaker 3: We've seen this season between the drops and it's not

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Speaker 3: like he breaks away right on these long catches, he

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Speaker 3: catches it and it just falls down for the most part.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we'll break a tackle or two, but they're clearly

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Speaker 3: a different offense. And what Mahomes has done is like

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Speaker 3: why he's in the conversation for the one of the

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Speaker 3: best quarterbacks we've ever seen. It's it's why people say

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Speaker 3: you and if you're retired tomorrow, would he be a

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Speaker 3: first Ball Hall of Famer. It's like, oh yeah, why

267
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Speaker 3: wouldn't he be. It's like what he's done. Sin's entered

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Speaker 3: the league, winning the division every year, making it to

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Speaker 3: multiple AFC Championship games, have two Super Bowls. It's like

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Speaker 3: he doesn't need to do anymore. We already know what

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Speaker 3: the deal is, Mahomes. But like you said, I just

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Speaker 3: believe in the Ravens defense. And it's like all I

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Speaker 3: can do this week, Like we said, we you know,

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Speaker 3: I'm taking phone calls and do all this other stuff. Well,

275
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Speaker 3: there's only two games. You really do die into the film,

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Speaker 3: you really want to dive into and break it down.

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Speaker 3: And I know a lot of people when they dive

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Speaker 3: into film, they're like, well, only like going a month

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Speaker 3: or a month and a half back when I'm finding

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Speaker 3: a team's offense just because they've changed so much from

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Speaker 3: just say, two months ago, And that is definitely true

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Speaker 3: watching this Chiefs team, like how much better they are

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Speaker 3: now than they were two months ago, where what you

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Speaker 3: just said though could hold true, which again I don't

285
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Speaker 3: want to backtrick too much, but it's like they just

286
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Speaker 3: played Miami and the Bills, two defenses that had major injuries.

287
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Speaker 3: They're not getting that with the Ravens. So it was

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Speaker 3: just interesting. I went through the Chiefs film. I do

289
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Speaker 3: see what they're doing and why it's working right now,

290
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Speaker 3: but I can see so many ways the Ravens can counter,

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Speaker 3: Like the Ravens really do have the pieces on defense

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Speaker 3: to counter what they want to do offensively, and we

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Speaker 3: use it as a as a you know, I talked

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Speaker 3: about last show where it's like a reasoning of people

295
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 3: to go back and watch that forty nine Ers game

296
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Speaker 3: against the Ravens. It's like they can do the exact

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Speaker 3: same thing against this forty nine ers, against this Kansas

298
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Speaker 3: City team they get they did against the forty nine Ers.

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Speaker 3: The Ravens can put a safety down onto their best player,

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Speaker 3: like I mean, Kettle's not the best player of the Fortyniners,

301
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 3: but kicking him away was a big deal, right. They

302
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Speaker 3: really the way the forty Niners did it, I mean

303
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,880
Speaker 3: the Ravens did it was they kept showing pretty different

304
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 3: looks pre snap. Now against you know Mahomes, that's not

305
00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:22,800
Speaker 3: gonna work, right, cheat, I think we both can agree

306
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 3: trying to disguise coverage against Mahomes doesn't work. And the

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00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:27,680
Speaker 3: worst thing you can do against Mahomes is blitz them.

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00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,040
Speaker 3: If you blitz Mahomes, he'll burn you. And when I

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00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:34,240
Speaker 3: went back and watched this Ravens footage, they're so smart

310
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Speaker 3: with their blitz packages. Look, they really don't force them.

311
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Speaker 3: You never know who's gonna actually be the blitzer. Right,

312
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 3: They'll have seven guys in the line and none of

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Speaker 3: them will even be the blitzer.

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Speaker 4: Right.

315
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,280
Speaker 3: The linebackers actually drop back and they'll have a random

316
00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,640
Speaker 3: cornerbacker safety drop in and be the blitzer. So I'm

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Speaker 3: just the more I break down the film on the

318
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,040
Speaker 3: Ravens defense, I'm not worried about it. And obviously we

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Speaker 3: talked offensively. I just I do think the advantage is

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Speaker 3: towards this Ravens team. So the only reason this number

321
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,560
Speaker 3: isn't seven, which I would think most people thought it

322
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,360
Speaker 3: could be. It's because of Mahomes, Like Mahome's usually worth

323
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,520
Speaker 3: three or four points. Yeah, to whatever talent they're lacking

324
00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,880
Speaker 3: compared to the Ravens he makes up for. So yeah,

325
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,200
Speaker 3: Like to me, I told you try, I made this

326
00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,120
Speaker 3: number four when it was three. It's gone to three

327
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 3: and a half. Now a couple of books are touching four.

328
00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,639
Speaker 3: People are like, well, would you take the Chiefs now

329
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Speaker 3: at four four and a half. I wouldn't fault you for,

330
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 3: but I wouldn't personally like, I still think the Ravens

331
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,400
Speaker 3: are the player, so totally. Again, when people talk about

332
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 3: the model, and I already told you it's like, I'm

333
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,560
Speaker 3: probably awful little bit on this Mahomes number, But am

334
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,160
Speaker 3: I really off by that much? When I talked about

335
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:42,720
Speaker 3: it being four, and it's moved all the way from

336
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 3: three up to four, it's like the books agree with it.

337
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,560
Speaker 3: So as much as I like to shoot on my

338
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,200
Speaker 3: own model here in the playoffs, it's like, at least

339
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,680
Speaker 3: I got this number right where I took the three

340
00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 3: in it open nervously, I mean, you talk Sunday night.

341
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,400
Speaker 3: I wasn't too excited to take it, but it felt

342
00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,479
Speaker 3: like it was a bad number. The fact that it's

343
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,159
Speaker 3: got up to four, we're now to a couple of books,

344
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 3: it makes you feel good, right. I talked a couple

345
00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,359
Speaker 3: pro especially a couple of pros on the desert in Vegas,

346
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 3: where it's like they were the first couple of books

347
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 3: to go to four, Like a lot of Jersey books

348
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:11,960
Speaker 3: didn't have four right away, but they did out in Vegas,

349
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 3: which again, that's professional money coming in early on the

350
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:18,159
Speaker 3: Shravens team. So not shocked to see the professionals on

351
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 3: this side. I am shocked to see how split it

352
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:22,399
Speaker 3: is between public perception.

353
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Speaker 2: Raybon had a good idea.

354
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:29,800
Speaker 1: I listened to him and Stucky on their podcast This

355
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:34,359
Speaker 1: Morning Action Network piblic check it out. He took the

356
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 1: Ravens minus two and a half in the first half,

357
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 1: and I know you always call that the cowards play,

358
00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 1: but we like to lean on that sometimes.

359
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:44,960
Speaker 2: I actually love that play.

360
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,639
Speaker 1: I bet it at two and a half because it

361
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,959
Speaker 1: takes sort of the Mahomes end of game backdoor factor

362
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 1: out of the equation. And of course it's cowardly, but

363
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,399
Speaker 1: sometimes I just want to win a bet and like

364
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 1: the Ravens have been dominant in the first half, dominant

365
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,679
Speaker 1: in Lamar's career, dominant in Harbaugh's career, dominant this season.

366
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,520
Speaker 1: Raybound had this stat thirteen and four this year in

367
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 1: first halves and they didn't lose two.

368
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 2: They didn't lose.

369
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Speaker 1: Against the spread two first halves in a row, so

370
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 1: they did last week. In last week they lost it

371
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:25,639
Speaker 1: because they had a part return for a touchdown. So

372
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 1: I will be playing the first half. I still have

373
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,800
Speaker 1: not bet on the Ravens side for this game.

374
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 3: Well interesting, I think I saw staff from Evan that

375
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,360
Speaker 3: Lamore struggles in the first quarter, right of I don't

376
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,320
Speaker 3: know why I bet Houston first quarter and almost positives

377
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,960
Speaker 3: from reading an Evan article where it's like Lamar for

378
00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,640
Speaker 3: some reason, the first quarter is not cover and I'm

379
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 3: almost positive I covered. I think I think the number

380
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,680
Speaker 3: was three or three and a half and it did cover.

381
00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's that's interesting. Lamar in the first half.

382
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 3: That could be a sneaky play if people want to

383
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 3: take it to and a half. We know the Chiefs

384
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 3: like the kick. They like to defer the second half,

385
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 3: so again that's another advantage if you want to bet

386
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 3: the first half where it's like and already obviously boost

387
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 3: up that Ravens team to take first half. But yeah,

388
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 3: I get why you're scary. Chat Like, it's scary taking

389
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 3: the three and a half minus three and a half

390
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 3: against mahomes. But that's why we got to play these spots.

391
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:33,720
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411
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 1: San Francisco, San Francisco minus savn Look, I guess I'm

412
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,159
Speaker 1: making this my exact decision. I wasn't clear about it

413
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,199
Speaker 1: the other day. I hate that you and I are

414
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 1: not aligned on this. I hate that it hasn't gone

415
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 1: back to six and a half. Tickets are split money

416
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 1: on San Francisco. I think it's trending towards San Francisco

417
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. Debo is the X factor here,

418
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 1: and I think debo is why a lot of people

419
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 1: probably can't get on the Niners. I am betting, literally

420
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,400
Speaker 1: that he's gonna play. He was fifty to fifty, still

421
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. Did not practice on Wednesday. Shanahan said

422
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 1: his shoulder still hurts. Simon with that setup, Let's do

423
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 1: some check calls.

424
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 3: Somebody said, maybe you do, man bros. Are Wendy Chad

425
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 3: the love the point Niners? Oh right, yeah?

426
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: Depressingly, Hey, oh my god, Thank god you and I

427
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 1: did not discuss that. I was so nervous about it,

428
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 1: and I keep like, I probably feel about this the

429
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 1: way you feel about the Ravens, Like I keep researching

430
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 1: this game and I know Debo is the X factor

431
00:22:58,440 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 1: for me.

432
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 2: But the are just a great team and like the

433
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 2: Lions are not. So I'm glad to hear this.

434
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 3: No, you and them, You guys, none of you guys

435
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 3: have hearts. That's the issue here. How do you not

436
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 3: want to take the Lions?

437
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 2: This is like what said, I'm a scientologist.

438
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 3: Yeah it's true. I'm probably I'm probably drinking too much

439
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 3: of the kool aid and loving the story too much.

440
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 3: Where I'm just I'm just so enamored with this Lions team.

441
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 3: And oh man, I've been getting abused over these last

442
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 3: twenty four hours. The biggest, the biggest abuse that I'm

443
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 3: taking chat is people are telling me this Island's made

444
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 3: me soft and soft to you, And I said, all right,

445
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 3: we'll have to test the theory out and I get

446
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 3: the fuck off this island and we'll see how next

447
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 3: year is. But I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna stay

448
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 3: dugged in because I almost cracked. It came to your side,

449
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 3: just because not only is this number trending towards seven

450
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 3: and a half, just about every book maker I talked

451
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 3: to is like, if Debo is playing, I'm gonna get

452
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 3: this it and a half. Like everyone I've talked to

453
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 3: feels like this number is gonna keep going up. So

454
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 3: unless i'm heavy heavy professional money comes in here late,

455
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,360
Speaker 3: I just I can see it keep going up where

456
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: it's like the liability is so heavy towards this forty

457
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 3: nine ers team and the forty nine ers future market.

458
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: You know, every bookmaker again I talked to loves the

459
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 3: fact that they're just getting tons of Detroit money line

460
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 3: money right now. It's one of the biggest liabilities to

461
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,959
Speaker 3: the books, but it's so small compared to the future

462
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:30,959
Speaker 3: market on this forty nine ers team, where it really

463
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 3: doesn't really do that much of a dent to them.

464
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 3: So I just I also can't wrap my head around

465
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: while back to back seasons of one seeds playing each other,

466
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: like it's just it's not football, Like, it's just not

467
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 3: like it's not supposed to be like this. It's a

468
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 3: weird shaped ball like Norm McDonald talks about. It's it's

469
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 3: not supposed to be go one seed, one seed. It's

470
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 3: supposed to be random shit happening here. So this sucks,

471
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 3: Like I am, I'm pissed off. I was hoping I

472
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 3: was gonna find more crazy guys on my side taking

473
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 3: the lines, and it's like they're just they're all terrified

474
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 3: of this forty nine ers team. Like when it's all there,

475
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 3: like we talked to Chad, talked about when Deebo's playing,

476
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: when McCaffrey's playing, when Kiddo's playing, you know, they're just

477
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 3: they're just unstoppable. And the same can be said about

478
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 3: their defense. When it's all clicking, they're really good. And

479
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 3: I'll just I keep pushing back that even watching that

480
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 3: film last week, it's like, if you throw the right

481
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 3: run blocking scheme at the forty nine ers, you can

482
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 3: run the ball on them, Like there are ways to

483
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 3: move the ball against his team. And then I go

484
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 3: back and I talked about that, you know Ravens game,

485
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: there were a guy who's opening the secondary, Like, if

486
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 3: you have the receivers with a type of speed, you

487
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 3: can give major issues to this fort nine Ers secondary.

488
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 3: The porter I'm on Saint Brown, It's like these are

489
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 3: the guys. These these are the way, these are the

490
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 3: weapons you can beat this team with. So maybe I'll

491
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 3: get burned on this one. I mean, Matt Mitchell scared

492
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 3: the shitt I mean when he gave us that stat

493
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: that nine at all ten conference championship favorites have won

494
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 3: and the one upset was the Bengals, or like once

495
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 3: the one seven point dog upset with the Bengals, a

496
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 3: game me and Chad were also split on, and I

497
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 3: was the fool taking Mahomes at home there and the Bengals,

498
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 3: you know, they were down what was it, Chad twenty

499
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 3: eight to ten and a half came back and won

500
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 3: that game. So obviously, I know, taking the Lions money

501
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 3: line here and playing them seven and a half, we're

502
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 3: gonna need a miracle to win this game out right,

503
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 3: But I have to believe that, you know, Goff and

504
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 3: the guys will keep this one close to the second half.

505
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 3: And it's like, I just I can't stop fighting what

506
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 3: sobody pros keep telling me, which is they have when

507
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 3: they have to play against these really good teams this season,

508
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 3: they've been hit or a miss, right, Like they've they've

509
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 3: had games where they've shown up and they've had other

510
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 3: games they completely disappeared in. And my pushback against that

511
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 3: is just it's a long season. Teams are gonna have

512
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 3: up and downs, and there's gonna be streaky teams. And

513
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 3: this Detroit team, for the most part, have been incredibly

514
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 3: consistent in offense. If you go through all their games

515
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 3: this season, they've been really consistent. The fear is what

516
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 3: I'm sure Chad's going to break down here. It's just

517
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 3: just Detroit defense. I don't know if they're able to

518
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 3: get stops. And that's that's definitely my fear. And that's

519
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,400
Speaker 3: why this number has gotten so big, where so many

520
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 3: professionals love this number four niners. It's like the foy Niners. Well,

521
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 3: we'll be able to move the ball. We know that

522
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 3: is it is Detroit caing be able to move the

523
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,360
Speaker 3: ball against forty nine ers. That's that's really the question.

524
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 3: We're breaking down this game.

525
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 2: That's the ball game. That's really it.

526
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: It's it's the Detroit secondary and you're banking on You're

527
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 1: banking on brock Purty having another bad game. Another thing

528
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 1: to think about. When brock Purty had that streak in

529
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 1: the middle of the year, he was without Trent Williams,

530
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 1: who was without Debo.

531
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 3: He was confused. Also, what's that he was injured? He

532
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 3: was concusied.

533
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 1: I was I was just going to say he was

534
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: also injured. And so like, I understand the impact of Debo.

535
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 1: But I do think we cannot discount that Brock Purty

536
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: is a really good quarterback. The guy is an elite quarterback.

537
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 1: You cannot say that someone who came off the bench.

538
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 3: But he's pretty good.

539
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like led his team to the NFC Title Game

540
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 1: last year, played a full season. This year, they're the

541
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 1: number one seed. They're in the NFC Title Game again.

542
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: They're favored by a touchdown. It's not because brock Purty

543
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: is holding them back. Brock Perty Rock Perty could throw

544
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: for three hundred and fifty yards in this game with

545
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: or without Deebo Samuel And so this Lion's secondary really

546
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: is their achilles heel, and it is the reason why

547
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: a lot of people are liking the Niners the way

548
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: they do. I also think, look, there's a key injury.

549
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 1: We talk about injuries. We talk about Joe Tooney, the

550
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: guard for the Chiefs, and that's a key injury because

551
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: nobody likes pressure up the middle. How do you stop

552
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. You don't let him step up in the pocket.

553
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: Jared Goff was not very good bottom third in the

554
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 1: NFL against pressure according to Pro Football Focus throughout the

555
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: regular season. He was very good against the Bucks, who

556
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: blitzed a lot, but at the end of the game

557
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 1: he got worse. Why did he get worse? Jonah Jackson did?

558
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: The Lions guard went out with an injury. He allowed

559
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: zero pressures when he was in the game. He's out

560
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: of the game. His backup allows seven pressures on eighteen snaps.

561
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: So that's the guy who's playing this week. Jonah Jackson

562
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: at surgery. He's not playing this week. I think that

563
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 1: the Niners, who don't even like to blitz because they're

564
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 1: so good at getting pressure and they are so healthy,

565
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: Jared Goff isn't going to have a way to step

566
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 1: up when there's pressure, and so to me, that's another

567
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: huge factor in this game.

568
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 2: So I'm on the Niners. The exact decision.

569
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: Maybe the foxhole is me on my own against you,

570
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: which I don't like to do.

571
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 3: You can do that, brother, I mean, we'll only have

572
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 3: two games to pick from. You're trying to force four

573
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 3: bets in So yeah.

574
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 2: Well maybe we're just going three.

575
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,719
Speaker 1: I think we're just going with big balls. Do By

576
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 1: the way, we didn't talk about this. Do you have

577
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: a thought on the total for the Ravens and the

578
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: Chiefs and a total and the total on this one?

579
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, that Chiefs line is so fishy, that total where

580
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 3: it's like I wanted to take the over first glance,

581
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: but I've been talking to taking the under for what

582
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 3: my bet is where it's like, you know, a couple

583
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: of persons I talked to, like the way you want

584
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 3: this game script to play out, you want the under.

585
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 3: You're betting the Ravens right, that really means their defense

586
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 3: finally showed up and stop this Chiefs defense so offense.

587
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, liked under there. And even though I have

588
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 3: the over under in this forty nine ers game set

589
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 3: at fifteen and a half, so teically my model likes

590
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 3: the under here. I've been waiting to hear from the

591
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 3: luck guys because I'm like, I'm hoping this to luck over.

592
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 3: It's like no luck, no luck with the luck Yeah,

593
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: so no, no, I know, I do kind of want

594
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 3: to take the over in this Detroit matchup, just because

595
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 3: once again selfishly I'm gonna need it. Most likely, I'm

596
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 3: gonna need it to be an over for me to

597
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: win this Detroit bet at seven and a half, Like,

598
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: I'm gonna need some type of backdo work unless what

599
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 3: Chad just talked about, unless party comes out and lays

600
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 3: a total leg. Again, Yeah, they could get rolled by

601
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 3: Detroit here, but we don't see that happen. I see

602
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 3: Perdy getting his I see Gothk in his. So if

603
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 3: if you had to force a bet here for me,

604
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 3: I would take the over. But man, it's been creeping up.

605
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 3: I'm seeing a couple of fifty one and a half,

606
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 3: so I'm seeing a couple of fifty two's out there.

607
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 3: So uh, definitely moving up direction because of what I

608
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 3: talked about where if you want to talk about whether

609
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 3: being a factor, everything like that. It is supposed to

610
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 3: be perfect sixty degrees and sunny for this game, no

611
00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 3: wind at all either, So obviously we prefer golf and

612
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 3: indoors in a dome. But this is as good as

613
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 3: it's going to get for the guy. Like in January,

614
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 3: he's playing outdoors in sixty degree weather.

615
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 1: You can't ask for much more, no, but I can

616
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 1: still ask that he not play well into the Niners

617
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: cover as a touchdown favorite.

618
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: That's all I can do. All right, we're gonna we're

619
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 2: gonna bring Evan in a sack.

620
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 1: But I do want to quickly look at Super Bowl

621
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 1: MVP futures because I thought it was interesting at bet

622
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: three sixty five, the top twelve guys listed. One guy

623
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: on the Ravens at the top Lamar plus two forty

624
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: one guy on the Ravens at the bottom is a

625
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 1: Flowers seventy five to one. The rest five Niners, then

626
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and then the Lions. We got Lamar, Brock, McCaffrey,

627
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 1: Mahomes all at four to one or less, and then

628
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: you know, you can go down the list from there.

629
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 1: It's goth It's Ayuk Debo, be a mon Rod.

630
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're gonna have to take a long shot,

631
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 3: I don't want to give too much away before the

632
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 3: actual week, but yeah, if you want to. If you

633
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 3: want to go a long shot, like me and Chad

634
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 3: talk about, usually try to go to the wide receiver

635
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 3: position where it's like we want that boom er bus

636
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 3: kind of guy. So I don't want to steal Chad's pick,

637
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 3: But if you if you're looking at long shots. I

638
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 3: would look in the wide receiver position.

639
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 1: Oh well, you're you're you're hinting that I'm going with

640
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: Jay Flowers at seventy five or one of the fifty

641
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: eight total Super Bowl MVPs, thirty two qbs, eight wide receivers,

642
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 1: seven running backs, a wide receiver, one MVP two years

643
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 1: ago and in twos in twenty nineteen, Julian Edelman and

644
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup two years ago.

645
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 2: A running back hasn't.

646
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: Won since nineteen ninety eight, So don't speculate about McCaffrey.

647
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 2: History not on his side, and.

648
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 3: They'll never give it to him. I think it was

649
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 3: four or five Super bowls ago. I know Evan probably

650
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 3: remembers name, but I forget the name of the running back.

651
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 3: But basically over for the Chiefs, I.

652
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 5: Had them Damien Williams, Jamian Williams, Jamian Williams, Yes, like

653
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 5: that guy at over one hundred yards, had their game

654
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 5: seeing touchdown, Like did everything you could possibly do, and

655
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 5: they still gave it to Mahome.

656
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 3: So it's like, just be weary if you're trying to

657
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 3: bet these running backs. It's just Chad just gave you

658
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 3: a stat It really doesn't work.

659
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: Simon, It's time to make Little Caesars, which is the

660
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 1: official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part of your game day.

661
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: Little Caesar Simon is headquartered in Detroit. Should we take

662
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:39,919
Speaker 1: this as a sign to bet the Lions. You could

663
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 1: order online during our pizza Pizza pregame, which is now

664
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:50,400
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665
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666
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 1: favorite Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings you crave. Simon,

667
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: I've got a new motto, just invented it.

668
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: If your favorite.

669
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:08,840
Speaker 1: Team is from the Belt of Rust, your smartest choice

670
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: is Crazy Crust. However you order your pizza, you win.

671
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with the convenient delivery

672
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Speaker 1: of our in store pizza portal pickup, So grab some

673
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 1: friends and enjoy a few slices during the game. Also,

674
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: don't forget catch every episode of the Favorites live on

675
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 1: YouTube Tuesday, Thursday Sunday. If you're watching on YouTube, don't

676
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: forget to give us a like and subscribe to the

677
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Also should remind everybody that we

678
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:41,439
Speaker 1: will go live after the final conference championship.

679
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 2: Game as we did.

680
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 1: So we'll be going a little bit later on Sunday,

681
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 1: hoping this Sunday is not as tortuous as this past Sunday. Simon,

682
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 1: you mentioned that you pulled back a little bit on

683
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 1: your Ravens bet, like you haven't gone all in the

684
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:54,760
Speaker 1: way you thought you would.

685
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 2: Do you have a biggest bet of the week so far.

686
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's Ravens at what I give it out, minus

687
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 3: three and a half. Like I only was able to

688
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 3: get a little amount down a minus three. A lot

689
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 3: of books didn't want that action on the Monday where

690
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 3: it's like they'd let you get a little tasting down.

691
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 3: They're really waiting to see what the kind of money

692
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 3: they're gonna get on in the Chiefs. Once they moved

693
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 3: to minus three and a half, I could get as

694
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 3: much as I wanted down. They were happy to take

695
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 3: whatever I wanted to take on Ravens. But usually I

696
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,479
Speaker 3: like playing these spots where it's like you're gonna usually

697
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 3: get good value on the dogs and these kind of games.

698
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 3: But it feels like both games are pretty priced right,

699
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 3: like the the lines number. I did have a model

700
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 3: at six. But it's like what you talked about is

701
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 3: such a true thing where it's like, I'm probably not

702
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 3: accounting for these injuries to the lines, and that also

703
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 3: is why the numbers moved a little bit because the

704
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 3: injuries to their offensive line. But yeah, honestly, the more

705
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 3: I've looked at these numbers, they just feel right. So

706
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 3: I tend to find great value in the playoffs. The

707
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,919
Speaker 3: only game that was really like I had to take

708
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 3: was like beed my life on it was that Rams

709
00:36:58,160 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 3: plus three and a half. So far these playoffs where

710
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 3: I just haven't had the value I usually tend to

711
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 3: see in the playoffs, and that it really comes down

712
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 3: the books have just been sharper right. It's I mean

713
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 3: we talked about last week, fifty million people watch that

714
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 3: Chief Spills game, Like the books know how important these

715
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 3: games aren't how many people bet it, So yeah, had

716
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 3: tip to them. They've just been really sharp with a

717
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 3: lot of these lines. And if any team's gonna get

718
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 3: blown out this week, it would be Detroit. So it

719
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 3: totally makes sense why this number is getting up a

720
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 3: seven and a half. At this point. You were dead

721
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 3: orright taking them at six and a half. I did

722
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 3: not think it would get to this point. But yeah,

723
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 3: the more you dive into the numbers and break it down.

724
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 3: It's like there's a couple of big advantages of forty

725
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 3: nine ers have they could exploit in this matchup. So yeah,

726
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 3: I wanted to bet big on the lines. It's tough

727
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 3: for me to get there right now. Ravens no doubt

728
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 3: my biggest bed of the week, and like you said,

729
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna throw a little more on the Ravens

730
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 3: first half as well. After hearing the Lamar stat.

731
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:56,479
Speaker 1: Yep, that stat you gave on Tuesday, has been sitting

732
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,879
Speaker 1: with me that more people watch this one playoff game

733
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 1: than all of the World Series games combined.

734
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 3: Now, the script effect is one of the crazier things

735
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,439
Speaker 3: that I've experienced a football fan, where like, even even

736
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 3: if you know all of her fans move on right

737
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 3: her and Kelsey break up in the offseason. The NFL

738
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 3: must be just so out of this world happy that,

739
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 3: like these hundred millions of people that would never watch

740
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 3: football at all. I've been checking into these games and

741
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 3: reading up on stuff happened the NFL. So again, conspiracy theory, simon.

742
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 3: They don't want this Taylor Swift party to end this weekend,

743
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 3: So definitely something I'm worried about Yad.

744
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 1: Romantic Taylor Swift loving Chad does not want it to

745
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 1: end either.

746
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 2: I love all of it.

747
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 1: I love her in the box, I love her hanging

748
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 1: with his family, I love her being part of these

749
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 1: crazy Kelsey brothers.

750
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,839
Speaker 2: I just think it's awesome and it seems to really

751
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 2: make her happy.

752
00:38:55,960 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 3: So people are asking me, They're like, they're like, you

753
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 3: think you think people are gonna batually start hating Kelsey.

754
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,439
Speaker 3: And it's like he's the only one of the only

755
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 3: people that could take their shirt off, be a little overweight,

756
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 3: jumping in and out of a box and pick up

757
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 3: little kids. Where everyone's like, no, that's all right, that's

758
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 3: just Jason Kelsey, where it's like any other guy would

759
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:16,240
Speaker 3: have been in jail right away.

760
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I don't think anyone's gonna hate you either.

761
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 2: They're imminently likable.

762
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: Speaking of likable, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet

763
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,560
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764
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,520
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765
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766
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:34,239
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767
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768
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769
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,400
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770
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771
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772
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

773
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

774
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:56,320
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

775
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: Terms conditioned restrictions apply what.

776
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 3: At a time. First laws, it takes.

777
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 1: Let's go, let's get it all right, We'll we get

778
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 1: out of here. Let's bring in Action Network Director or

779
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 1: Research Evan Abrams. We mentioned him all the time. He's

780
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 1: world famous. We are going to talk a little bit

781
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 1: about some last words that Evan gets to share.

782
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams.

783
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:24,320
Speaker 2: We're finished talking.

784
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 4: What's up, Chad? Before I get into my nuggets, I

785
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 4: do have to say one thing. So money line percentage

786
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 4: Simon brought up earlier. So forty four percent of the

787
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 4: money line tickets are on the lions, which is actually insane.

788
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 4: It's a lot compared because the dog usually doesn't get

789
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 4: that MUCHIC tickets, but if you look at the money

790
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 4: line handle, seventy five percent of the money line handle

791
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,879
Speaker 4: on the Lions money line, so there is a ton

792
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 4: of action coming in. And the fact that that's the

793
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 4: late game is also really interesting because if say the

794
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 4: Ravens win, you're gonna have a lot of money line

795
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 4: tickets lined up on that second game, and usually it'd

796
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 4: be on the Niners. But seeing all that action on

797
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 4: the Lions little fascinating. So I figured that was worth

798
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,880
Speaker 4: mentioning off the top. All right, let's do some nuggets here.

799
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 4: So I got a bunch of stuff. So after two nuggets,

800
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 4: let's chop it up a little bit. But let's start

801
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 4: with that Detroit San Francisco game. So here's a live

802
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 4: betting angle. Last week, the Niners trailed twenty one to

803
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 4: fourteen with twenty minutes left and won the game. But

804
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 4: under Kyle Shanahan, that's a very rare circumstance. So under Shanahan,

805
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers are thirty two percent straight up

806
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 4: and against the spread after trailing by a touchdown or more.

807
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 4: At any point when they're trailing by more than one possession,

808
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 4: it's really been lights out. They are six and forty

809
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 4: straight up, seven and thirty nine against the spread by

810
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,720
Speaker 4: trailing by more than one possession, some more than eight points.

811
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 4: Of the thirteen coaches since twenty seventeen since Shanahan got hired,

812
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 4: with forty games or more, he is second worst, ahead

813
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:48,800
Speaker 4: of only Adam Gase. You never want to be in

814
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 4: a stat with Adam Gase. So that is a pretty

815
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 4: difficult situation when it comes to Shanahan. He did win

816
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 4: last week, but usually not coming back.

817
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: I'll give you one more.

818
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 4: So. The Buffalo hangover has been something that's been talked about.

819
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 4: We've seen the stat all week where teams that have

820
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 4: beaten Buffalo in the playoffs are zero in four straight

821
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 4: up in their next game. I'll take it one step further,

822
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 4: like I tend to do, so it's not really your

823
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 4: quit instance. Over the last three seasons, teams are three

824
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 4: and fourteen against the spread the game after beating Buffalo,

825
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 4: failing to cover the spread by six points per game.

826
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 4: And that's like, that's like twenty four and forty one

827
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 4: after beating Buffalo under any circumstance. So usually we've talked

828
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 4: about this in the past with like the Ravens, the Steelers,

829
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers. There's something about this Buffalo team

830
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 4: and maybe Josh on the offensive side that kind of

831
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 4: takes it out of teams.

832
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 1: Man, that's a good one. Yeah, I've got a theory

833
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: on the Shanahan.

834
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 2: Record.

835
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 1: He's never had a quarterback he could rely on. Ya

836
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 1: is a difference maker.

837
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 4: I think Chad's honestly, the quarterback in the past was terrible.

838
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:57,800
Speaker 4: Now at least he's moderate and level, and so I

839
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 4: think that stat is pretty much like the rest of

840
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 4: every coach. That's my opinion on it.

841
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, that right, there is a stat where it's like

842
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 3: that's what is so special about him, where it's like

843
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 3: his offense, if it's all working, he can make anyone

844
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo into a super Bowl quarterback exactly. But if

845
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 3: that Jimmy Garoppolo, it's same Jimmy Garoppolo gets down seven,

846
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 3: it's like they're kind of they're screwed. And that's the

847
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 3: most been the interesting part about Cole's tenure, where it's

848
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 3: like he's never had the guy he traded up or

849
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 3: Trey Lance put really put his neck out there and say,

850
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 3: you know what, I screwed up the third pick overall,

851
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 3: how about we use this guy who's the last pick

852
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 3: in the draft is our starting quarterback. And it's like,

853
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 3: you know, that's what it takes to be a great quach.

854
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 3: It's like that party has to feel that pressure in

855
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 3: that confidence right where it's like the coach really stuck

856
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 3: his neck out for him and he delivered. This season,

857
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 3: they got the one seed. Chad just talked about, like

858
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 3: that comeback. That's not something Jimmy would have done, right,

859
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 3: Like we would have left him for dead. I'm not

860
00:43:57,640 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 3: going like again, I took an absolute beating last week.

861
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 3: That was a another incredibly dumb bet I made where

862
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,919
Speaker 3: it's like, oh, Shanon's down right now in the fourth quarter,

863
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 3: let me wait for them to get closer, tie this up,

864
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 3: and I'll do another bet on Green Bay. Instantly regret

865
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 3: that bet, trying to fade Shane Hand in that spot,

866
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 3: but yeah, it's like that that was a turning point,

867
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 3: right like that pretty could have found something in that game.

868
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 3: Or Chad might be asking himself midway through the third

869
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 3: quarter of this Detroit game, why did I bet on

870
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 3: Purdy as a seven point favorite one? Once again? And

871
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 3: that's the hardest part of you're trying to bet these

872
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 3: guys where it's like it's hard enough to have a

873
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 3: little bit of doubt. If all the quarterbacks left right,

874
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 3: the only one that with a little bit of doubt

875
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 3: is Purty because the other guys, you know, Lamar, MVP, Mahomes,

876
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 3: Super Bowl, Golf, super Bowl, Like, there are a lot

877
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 3: of questions about Purdy, but man, is he disproving a

878
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 3: lot of that stuff like that comeback last week, like

879
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 3: Chad said, that's something Shane has ever had before. So

880
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 3: we could definitely be seeing the start of a new

881
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 3: dynasty here in this forty nine Ers team.

882
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 4: I also say this Lions this year ten and oh

883
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 4: straight up after leading after the first quarter, so if

884
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,439
Speaker 4: they fall behind, that might come into play a little.

885
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 4: This is a good one on gov. So the Niners

886
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:08,919
Speaker 4: sack the opposing quarterbacks at a rate of four point

887
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 4: two percent this season, So that's the percentage of defensive

888
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 4: plays at end in a sack, and for reference, that's

889
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 4: very good. But surprisingly, gopis face teams, and Goff has

890
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 4: faced teams at a rate of four percent or higher.

891
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 4: He is twenty eight sixteen and one against a spread

892
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 4: in his career, including fifteen and four as a Lion

893
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,320
Speaker 4: and seven and one this season. So Gazakstaki tend to

894
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 4: say he turned into a pumpkin. We say it as well.

895
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 4: But that's actually that's actually a pretty good mark of

896
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 4: fifteen and four, especially when you can say he is

897
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 4: getting the seven points this week. So that's one.

898
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 2: I mean, we'll go this week. But that's amazing.

899
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 4: I'm on the Lions, so this is this is fantastic.

900
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 4: Let's go to Mahomes and Baltimore for a second. So

901
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 4: so much has been made of Mahomes, but Lamar versus

902
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 4: this Chiefs defense, to me is probably the biggest matchup

903
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 4: of the game, as I think has been discussed in

904
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 4: this pod. So Casey is allowing just seventeen points per

905
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 4: game this year, Lamar is already won an eleven straight

906
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,440
Speaker 4: up at home in his career. Overall, it's seventy four

907
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,720
Speaker 4: percent across forty two home games versus team's allowing twenty

908
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 4: points per game or more, he is twenty three and five,

909
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 4: eighty two percent versus team's allowed having less than twenty

910
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 4: points per game, he is just six and six. So

911
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 4: better defensive, better scenarios hasn't been the easiest for him.

912
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 4: It's been tighter games for what it's worth.

913
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 1: And I noticed you were on the Lions. You put

914
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:27,399
Speaker 1: that pick into the app pretty early in the week,

915
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 1: and I'm not gonna lie. It was right after Simon

916
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 1: and I had had a conversation and my stomach dropped

917
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: a little bit, so until Simon had said.

918
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 2: The sharp's with me, I was a little bit antsy. Now,

919
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 2: I'll be honest, though, I literally on.

920
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 4: This podcast I bet it at seven and a half,

921
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 4: so I bet it again. Detroit's been absolutely torched on defense.

922
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 4: But I don't trust Party. I won't trust Purty, not

923
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 4: just I feel like he's a mediocre quarterback and amazing

924
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 4: system and the fact that Debo is banged up and

925
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 4: not himself. I just don't trust it. I'll take the points,

926
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 4: especially I think I think I'm with Simon as well,

927
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 4: going to get to eight, especially like that day, You're

928
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 4: gonna get a lot of nine interaction in my opinion.

929
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 4: All right, two more for you guys.

930
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 2: Yeah.

931
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 4: San Francisco treats. So the forty nine ers have actually

932
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 4: lost six straight home games against the spread. They haven't

933
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 4: covered at home since October eighth. They are three and

934
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:19,879
Speaker 4: six ats this season at home. In the last twenty years,

935
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 4: only two teams have played a home game in their

936
00:47:23,200 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 4: conference championship with the home win percentage ATS thirty three

937
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 4: percent or less. Like the forty nine ers, they were

938
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:32,359
Speaker 4: both Mahomes. They were both the Chiefs twenty twenty two

939
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:36,720
Speaker 4: and twenty twenty Chiefs one. Chiefs covered, moved on, nothing mattered.

940
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 4: I find it interesting just because the six game home

941
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 4: losing streak mostly wins, mostly not covers, end up winning

942
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 4: and covering in that game with the with the shorter spread.

943
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 4: I'm a little scared because why is the number so

944
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 4: much higher this week when those Mahomes games short spreads

945
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 4: basically pick'ems. Kind of the reason I like the Lioness

946
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:58,879
Speaker 4: a little bit. I think it's just inflated. So that's

947
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 4: number one, and then we're going to do the Mahomes

948
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:02,759
Speaker 4: dog thing just because we kind of have to. So

949
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 4: he hasn't been an underdog and consecutive starts since his

950
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 4: rookie year in twenty eighteen. After the outright when last week,

951
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 4: he is eight and three straight up in his career

952
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:15,280
Speaker 4: as an underdog. It's the best record for any quarterback

953
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl area where a minimum of ten starts.

954
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:21,439
Speaker 4: Best ever. Now the Chiefs opened plus three and a half.

955
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 4: We're still seeing three and a half's. There's some fours,

956
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 4: but it's just the sixth time Mahomes has opened at

957
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 4: plus three or higher, first time since Baltimore in twenty twenty,

958
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 4: which is always a fun situation. He's actually five and

959
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 4: oh against the spread, never lost, never lost against the

960
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 4: spread in the spot, always finds a way, and here's

961
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,759
Speaker 4: a fun one if you like it. With the later game.

962
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 4: So Mahomes eleven and oh as an underdog and a

963
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 4: six point teaser, so if he wanted to push that up,

964
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 4: that might be an angle.

965
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 3: To And Evan said, his first two games or an underdog,

966
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 3: This is how much of a degenerate I am. Check

967
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 3: I can remember those games. If there was yesterday, bet

968
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:58,840
Speaker 3: on Mahomes. It was Week one. He was at I

969
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: believe the Chargers. He was probably a three and a

970
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 3: half four point dog. Bet him on the money line,

971
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 3: bet the number. I was like, wow, this is so

972
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 3: easy against old man Rivers. Easy bet. The next week

973
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 3: it was on the road at Pittsburgh and I was like, okay,

974
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 3: this is where you fade the first year starter against

975
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 3: Ben Roethlisberger. After a big win, he went to Pittsburgh

976
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 3: won again. Outright, So mahomes first two games as a dog,

977
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 3: you want him both on the road, both outright. Should

978
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 3: have known he was a unicorn right then and there.

979
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:29,360
Speaker 4: He actually started his career eight to zero against the spread.

980
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 4: We all should have known.

981
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:30,799
Speaker 3: Holy shit.

982
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, and yet and yet, somehow our big balls bet

983
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 1: of the week betting against the guy who will go

984
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:44,720
Speaker 1: down no joke. Is the greatest quarterback in NFL history,

985
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 1: who breaks every model, who one of the finest minds

986
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 1: I've ever spoken to in sports betting. Simon Hunter has

987
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 1: said there is no model for Patrick Mahomes. So, I mean,

988
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 1: I think you can see why I'm being a coward

989
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 1: in this game. Yeah, if the first half all right

990
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 1: to recap, Chad likes San Francisco minus seven, that's his

991
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:15,439
Speaker 1: exact decision. Simon likes Baltimore minus three and a half,

992
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:17,800
Speaker 1: and Baltimore minus three and a half is going to

993
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 1: be our big balls bet of the week. Uh, do

994
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 1: we want to do a money line round robin here?

995
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the only thing to do is

996
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 1: bet San Francisco and Baltimore, And there was a moment

997
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 1: this week where that as a pairing was plus money.

998
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think Evanson was like, what plus one FIFTEENV.

999
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 2: You could do it?

1000
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:39,879
Speaker 3: And I think you can do what Evan just talked

1001
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 3: about if you want, you can make that play if

1002
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 3: the Ravens win, you can take a position on the

1003
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 3: lines and just try to try to, you know, hit

1004
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 3: a plus number on a couple of money lines where

1005
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 3: it's like, I think the lines are up to plus

1006
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 3: two to fifty, so you can easily hedge that. Or

1007
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 3: you know, if you really wanted to, you could take

1008
00:50:58,640 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 3: a seven and a half and just try to hit

1009
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:03,560
Speaker 3: the middle. But yeah, a lot of options there.

1010
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 4: For me.

1011
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 3: Chat If I have to do a money liner on Robin,

1012
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 3: I know ours is gonna be different. I'm all in

1013
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 3: on this Lion's team. I'm drinking the kool aid. I

1014
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 3: love the story, love everything about it. You know me,

1015
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 3: I'm a romantic like this. This is literally my icy

1016
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 3: heart becomes a little warmer with this Lions story. So

1017
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 3: give me the lines money line with the Ravens money

1018
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 3: line paired.

1019
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 2: Up Island Soft.

1020
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:36,840
Speaker 1: Facts Facts my biggest remaining future of the season is

1021
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:41,879
Speaker 1: a Chiefs Niners matchup in the Super Bowl. Okay, it's

1022
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:44,680
Speaker 1: like I think I got it at like twenty five,

1023
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:46,839
Speaker 1: between twenty five and thirty to one.

1024
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 2: I'd have to look at my records to see for sure.

1025
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 2: But so I am.

1026
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: I'm, you know, thinking about what my hedge will be

1027
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 1: if in the first game. I think the first game

1028
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 1: is the Ravens and the Chiefs. If the Chiefs win,

1029
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about what my potential hedge on the lines

1030
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:07,840
Speaker 1: will be, and I will certainly be phishing for advice

1031
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 1: in that window between kickoffs.

1032
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 3: So you're being a grades So I can put like

1033
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 3: five or I don't know what you put on. If

1034
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:15,880
Speaker 3: you can put five or seven K on the Lions

1035
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 3: money line, and it's like, no matter what, you'll get

1036
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 3: a nice payday.

1037
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 1: If, oh my, I'll put it least, dude, I'm gonna

1038
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 1: have to call you off to put at least one

1039
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 1: hundred K down just to match what the meetings will be.

1040
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 2: Only you running all over the place for me.

1041
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: There you go, Download us from Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever

1042
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:37,280
Speaker 1: you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, weave as five stars,

1043
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 1: say whatever you want, feedback as a gift until we

1044
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:43,919
Speaker 1: see you guys Sunday Night Live after the Lions forty

1045
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 1: nine Ers game. I Love You.

1046
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1047
00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:58,360
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1048
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 1: help is available twenty five four seven at one eight

1049
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler