1 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 2 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: I'm Joe, Wasn'tal, and I'm Tracy all Away. So Tracy, 3 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 1: we are recording this episode. I think just six days gee, 4 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: I know, just six days before the election. I think, uh, 5 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: by the time people listen to it, the election will 6 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: have been passed. Um. But nonetheless, we're in a period 7 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: either way in which there is just an extraordinary amount 8 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: of attention paid to what's going on in Washington, d C. Yeah, 9 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: less than six days to go. It's time to start 10 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: making predictions about the outcome of the election. So everyone 11 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: who listens to this after it actually happens can tell 12 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: us we were wrong. Perfect timing. Yeah, that's exactly that's 13 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: that's the perfect way. Also, if all of our predictions 14 00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 1: are off, we just want to air the episode. Now. 15 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: I'm justing, but I mean I do feel like, hey, 16 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: I don't I'm not going to stick my neck out 17 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: and make any predictions and be you know, election decide. 18 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: And of course the election is sucking all the oxygen 19 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: out of the room in terms of people's attention. Just 20 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 1: paying attention to what's going on in d C has 21 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: been increasing and important for markets it seems like for 22 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: a long time now. Yeah, I think that's right, and 23 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: I mean has basically taken everything to an extreme. All 24 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: these long term economic and business trends that have been 25 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: in play for many years now seemed to have accelerated 26 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: this year. But I think you can argue that there 27 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 1: was more of a focus on politics after the financial crisis. 28 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: You had a lot of attention paid to financial regulation 29 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: than you had the Eurozone crisis. You had Brexit, then 30 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: you have the US China trade war, and now in 31 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: you have the fiscal stimulus and the response to the 32 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: coronavirus risk crisis. So it does feel like we've been 33 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: in this long running trend of investors paying more attention 34 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: to politics and policy and has really just shifted that 35 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: into high gear. And now we have the election on 36 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: top of it. Yeah, exactly right. And you know, I 37 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: think like one of the things we've learned, and it's 38 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,399 Speaker 1: a pretty widely held view now, but something that comes 39 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,679 Speaker 1: up a lot of times in our discussions is that 40 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: if the government gives people money, Um, that is a 41 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 1: very effective economic policy. It's very powerful, but that but 42 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: you know, the government doesn't always just hand out money 43 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: to people and you need to corrall vote to get 44 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: it done. So here you have this lever this policy 45 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 1: tool that's extremely effective, and there's not really much debate 46 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: about can it be done sort of from a fiscal 47 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: standpoint or a monetary standpoint, but about whether there's the 48 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: political capacity to do it. I think it's going to be. 49 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: It's an issue now, It's probably gonna be an issue 50 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: in one regardless of the makeup of government. Man. And 51 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 1: so I feel like there's going to be increasing demand 52 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: on the part of investors, on the part of economists 53 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: to understand whether that political capacity continues to exist in 54 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: in d C and what it takes to make it happen. Yeah. Absolutely, 55 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 1: And I think there's sometimes a tendency on Wall Street. 56 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 1: I guess because a lot of investors and analysts tend 57 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: to be quite rational people. I think there's sometimes a 58 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: tendency to ascribe rationality to politicians. Uh. And you think, well, 59 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: they're going to do what's good for people, They're going 60 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: to do what's good for the economy, and maybe in 61 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: this case that's fiscal stimulus, but sometimes they don't always 62 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: do that. But also, wait, I'm not voicing this, no, 63 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: I get it. You're making on No. Well, I was 64 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: gonna say, sometimes I think there are also motivations that 65 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: Wall Street isn't necessarily aware of, so they look at 66 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: everything from a sort of zero sum game why wouldn't 67 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: you do this? But there are things that politicians are 68 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: thinking about that wouldn't necessarily jump out to your average 69 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 1: sell side analysts. No. I mean, for one thing, they're 70 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: all focused on re election in large part. And the 71 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: number of times I've read an analysts say well, maybe 72 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: we'll get an infrastructure deal is just totally embarrassing. Anyway, Uh, 73 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: this is a good set up to our guest because 74 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: he has asserted quite prominently several times the Wall Street 75 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: is just totally clueless or markets are totally clueless, or 76 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,679 Speaker 1: maybe both. We can sort of get into the distinctions 77 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 1: about how DC really works. And so if that's true, 78 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 1: that's something important for people to internalize given the increasing 79 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:42,160 Speaker 1: importance of DC. We're gonna be speaking with Jake Sherman. 80 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: He's at Politico. He's also the author of the popular 81 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: playbook Newsletter. He's going on to do something else after 82 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: this year, but we don't know what it is, so 83 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: we'll I'll be waiting to see where Jake goes next. 84 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 1: But in the meantime we could talk about what, in 85 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: his view, Wall Street gets wrong. So, Jake, thank you 86 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: very much for joining us. Thanks guys, I'm a huge 87 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: fan and I'm really happy to be here. Thanks. Yeah, 88 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: it's great to have you. So we've gotten into some 89 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: Twitter fights. I don't know if Twitter fights are the 90 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 1: right word, but especially in these last few weeks about 91 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: the stimulus up and ups and downs. Sometimes it look 92 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: more promising, sometimes it's looked less promising. The market moves 93 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 1: on these headlines. Pelosian Minuchin will say their meeting in 94 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: the afternoon, stocks go up half a percent, meeting ends 95 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: with no agreement, stocks go down. And in your view, 96 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: the fact that the markets are so sensitive to these 97 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: headlines just shows that somehow they don't really get it. 98 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 1: I think, yes, I let me agree with all of 99 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: the things you just said. Um my argument has been 100 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: and I just my way. Background. I've been covering Congress 101 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: since two thousand and nine, so I've been a part 102 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: of covering every major crisis for the last the last decade, 103 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 1: and there's been plenty. Right, We've almost had our debt downgraded, 104 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,160 Speaker 1: we've had government shut shut downs, all those things. I 105 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: think that on Wall Street and generally speaking, people are 106 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: making judgments about the probability of events without taking into 107 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: consideration the personalities that are driving these events. Right and 108 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 1: and Tracy, you did a really good job, although you 109 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: said you didn't, but you actually did a great job 110 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 1: of of explaining some of that at the top of 111 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 1: this right, Like, people are not rational. Politicians are not 112 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: always rational in a traditional sense. They're not going to 113 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: just pass a trillion dollars of stimulus because it makes 114 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: the most sense. You need to take into into into 115 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: account a broad array of of human behavior and assumptions 116 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: of human behavior when making these predictions. For example, Nancy 117 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: Pelosi hates Mark Meadows. She's not going to make a 118 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 1: deal if Mark Meadows is there. Um Stephen Manuchin like, 119 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: I think investors and markets generally speaking have not only 120 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 1: been too sensitive to these things, but have just ignored 121 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: fundamental realities of governing and um and are just passing 122 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 1: off information shin as gospel when it really is just 123 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: nothing but a singular data point in a broad array 124 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: of data points that need to be under consideration. So 125 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: can you elaborate on that point? Then? Uh, you know, 126 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: Joe mentioned in the beginning that politicians clearly want to 127 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: be reelected, so that's always a focus for them. You 128 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: mentioned some personal feuds, and you know, likes and dislikes. 129 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: There might be alliances in the background that people aren't 130 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: even aware of. What motivates the average politician in your opinion, 131 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: reelection and power. Right, I mean, my personal hobby horse 132 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 1: is um, one of my many personal hobby horses. And 133 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: Joe could probably attest to this since he follows me 134 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: on Twitter and we have some back and forths. I mean, listen, 135 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: we I think the media is guilty in this too, 136 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 1: because we're we concentrate on whether Congressman X believes there 137 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: is a deal in hand or not. I'll pick a 138 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: random member of Congress, right, I mean Josh Gottheimer is 139 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: a Democrat whose chairs the Problem Solvers Caucus, a caucus 140 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: that has not solved any problems, but calls itself the 141 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 1: problem solvers Caucus. He's a Democrat from northern New Jersey. 142 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: His district is heavily populated with people in the financial 143 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 1: services industry and who work in New York. And he 144 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: will go on TV or he will make some sort 145 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: of remark to a newspaper to somebody that I think 146 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: a deal is close and stocks will go up or 147 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: go down based on that, or I'll get a thousand 148 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 1: text messages from from sources on Wall Street or people 149 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 1: in the financial services community based on that. There are 150 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,319 Speaker 1: like four or five people in Washington that you need 151 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 1: to understand to understand what's going to happen. And those 152 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: people are Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, Donald Trump, 153 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,319 Speaker 1: even Minuton and Kevin McCarthy. It's no more complicated than that. 154 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: And there within you need to focus on what's at 155 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 1: stake for each individual participant. Right, So let's let's dissect 156 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: this a little bit more. Nancy Pelosi decided to not 157 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: do a medium sized a school deal because she wanted 158 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: a large fiscal deal, and she was incentivized by Stephen Mnuchin, 159 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: who kept running back to the negotiating table every single 160 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: time something was about to fall apart and giving into Pelosi. 161 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:16,719 Speaker 1: So then Pelosi takes a look at the the legislative 162 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: landscape and says, oh, I could get a lot out 163 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: of this, So why don't I try to get a 164 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,359 Speaker 1: lot out of this? Um, I could get tons of 165 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: of priorities because Stephen Manuchin really wants a deal, and 166 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 1: I've been in this game for thirty years. He's a 167 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: new participant, so I could string him along for a ride. 168 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: Those are the kinds of things that that you know. 169 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: I just think that we're oftentimes listening to the noise 170 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: and not looking for the signal in understanding this. And 171 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: some of my sources on Wall Street have indicated, well, 172 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: we're trading headlines, and we're a macro fund. We care 173 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: about the headline that comes out and whether it's a 174 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: positive or negative headline, and markets will go up and 175 00:09:55,920 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: down based on that. But like, that is not that's mine. 176 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: Maybe that's a business, but that's not that's not an 177 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:04,719 Speaker 1: indicator of whether there will be a deal. I mean, 178 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: I have been on the on the since I think 179 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: since August or September, and again we're taping this before 180 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 1: we know for sure it's six days before the election. 181 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 1: There could there be a deal in the next six days. 182 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: I put a point five percent probability on that, but 183 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: just assuming there's not. But let me just finishes one thought. 184 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: I mean, I've been saying since September. The dynamics have 185 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 1: been obvious for people who understand this stuffs in September. 186 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 1: So you say, like, okay, the guy from the Problem 187 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: Solvers Caucus goes on cable news and said, I think 188 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 1: there's a deal that's noise, and I get that, and 189 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people get that, and if 190 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: they don't, you know, they really should pay more attention. 191 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 1: On the other hand, your assertion that markets don't get it. Okay, 192 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: so the SNP bounces a quarter of a percent, I 193 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: could tell you that's noise. I don't think that's necessarily 194 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: reflective of some broad consensus and to the extent that 195 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 1: since the beginning of September, um the odds of a 196 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: deal have really diminished. Well, markets are down since the 197 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: beginning of September, at least a lot of them are. 198 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: So doesn't that actually reflect perhaps a you're the one, 199 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 1: uh reading too much into noise and be that markets 200 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: have more or less gotten it right? Well, yes and no, 201 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: Because when you have Nancy Pelosi go out and say 202 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 1: I'm optimistic for a deal, we're putting pen to paper, uh, 203 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: and you see stocks bounce on that, and you see 204 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,199 Speaker 1: and I see a headline in the morning stimulus hopes 205 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 1: uh increase based on Nancy Pelosi saying there's optimism and 206 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: you see, you know, I see Bloomberg charts on Twitter 207 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,839 Speaker 1: and stocks you're pointing up and futures are up based 208 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: on based on renewed stimulus hopes. I mean, the dynamic 209 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 1: here has been remarkably static since August or September, and 210 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: still there have been these momentary swings where stocks are 211 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: up a good deal and maybe they're not up net 212 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 1: net over, uh, you know, since September, but you do 213 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 1: get these momentary bounces which are just complete garbage. It's 214 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's completely made up. It's not there art. 215 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: I mean, Nancy Pelosi says she's optimistic about everything, So 216 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: I think, uh, and maybe I'm maybe what I'm saying 217 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: is that there the structure is off, and the incentive 218 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: structure for Wall Street is off. But what I'm saying 219 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: is that broadly speaking, the dynamics have been static for 220 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: months and have not changed appreciably at all. Part of 221 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: me wonders, and I hate to, I hate to be 222 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 1: really self referential, but some of this could well be 223 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: a financial media problem. Right markets. Markets are up half 224 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: a percent because Pelosi said something optimistic about financial stimulus. 225 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 1: I mean, that's a narrative that someone who covers markets 226 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 1: is basically putting together when you could actually write. You know, 227 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,319 Speaker 1: it could be any number of things. It could be positioning, 228 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: or you know, it could be something completely random that 229 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: we don't even know about. I don't know what my 230 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: point is, um, I guess like I wonder if there's 231 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: a tendency in financial markets among investors to seek out 232 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 1: narratives to explain market moves, and that's why we end 233 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: up with this sort of simple, simplistic construction around what's 234 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 1: going on in d C. I think there's some truth 235 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: to that. I think it's Listen, everything boils down to 236 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: a media problem at some level, right, But um, I 237 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: think that, Uh, I think that's right and to some degree. 238 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 1: And I don't mean to wrap on the media. We're 239 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 1: all card carrying members of said groups. So I don't 240 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,599 Speaker 1: mean to uh to to wrap on the media. But 241 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: also remember these politicians are are playing you to write, 242 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: there playing all of us. They know broadly speaking, they're not. 243 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 1: So I've heard a lot of times I have people 244 00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: that I talked to on Wall Street. I'm sure you 245 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: talked to a lot of similar people to who say, well, 246 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: what's the buzz like on on the markets? What are 247 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: people thinking like? I could tell you that most members 248 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 1: of Congress are only vaguely aware of financial markets in 249 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: the sense that they know whether they are up and 250 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: down as a general proposition. They don't know the momentary 251 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 1: moves of markets, and probably north should they, right, I mean, 252 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: they shouldn't be focused on that unless there's some calamitous 253 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: events that they need to be aware of. But I 254 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: don't know if I ever reported this, but Nancy Pelosi 255 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 1: when she gave her press conference last week, I forget 256 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: what she said exactly, but afterwards she said on a 257 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: call with her leadership, the market was up when I 258 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: was talking. She they understand what it takes to game 259 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: markets and what it takes to to push markets up 260 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: and to give more hope when there shouldn't be hope 261 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 1: at all. They get this, They get this game better 262 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 1: than anybody is. Donald Trump might say so uh and 263 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: and they go on Fox Business, and they go on Bloomberg, 264 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: and they go on CNBC because they know that they 265 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: could instill hope whether where there might not be any 266 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: reason for hope. So this is all part of a 267 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: large game, and to be what I'm saying is the 268 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 1: game is is stupid and rigged in every sense of 269 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 1: the word, and and uh it shouldn't be, or maybe 270 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 1: it should be. So that's kind of my my overall take. 271 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: You know, I'm curious is as we were talking about 272 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: the intro, we had an incredibly powerful fiscal stimulus this year, 273 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 1: arguably the biggest and most effective one in history, in 274 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: the form of the Cares Act. Setting aside the current gamesmanship. 275 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 1: Right now, looking forward, we don't know what the makeup 276 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: of government is. What did it take to make that happen? 277 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 1: Why did CARES come into existence? Why? Why how did 278 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: the politics align for that one? In your view, because 279 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be an important thing in 280 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: terms of people thinking about like the prospects for another 281 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus is what does it actually take for the 282 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: wheels of politics to make it happen. What it took 283 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 1: was the find was the incentives of every member of 284 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: the leadership to get this done, meaning Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, 285 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer, and Kevin McCarthy. Every single person had to 286 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: be bought in and had to agree to the general 287 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: proposition that this was an extraordinary time and extraordinary measures 288 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: need to be taken. Once Mitch, so that's why it happened. 289 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell was up for reelection and there was no 290 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: question that something needed to be done. Then we moved 291 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: into another phase where Senate Republicans were looking at decreasing 292 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: unemployment numbers, increasing stock market numbers, and a general marginally 293 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 1: rosier picture of the economy. And then the incentive started 294 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: to diverge, and you had a president who was not 295 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: really sure what he wanted and was out of the game, 296 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: and a party that was generally a drift and a speaker, 297 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: a Democratic speaker that saw opportunity to play members of 298 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: the administration off of each other, Mark Meadows Againsteven Manuchin, 299 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: Stephen Manuchin against Mark Meadows, and and that and Mark 300 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: Meadows and the President against each other, and against even Manuchin. 301 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: So let's talk about going forward, what will it take 302 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: to get another stimulus deal passed? So the general conventional 303 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: wisdom tends to be that no matter what happens on 304 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 1: November three, there will be what we call a lame 305 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,960 Speaker 1: duck stimulus deal. So some sort of deal between November 306 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: four and January twenty whatever, when the new Congress is in, 307 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 1: when the new president's inaugurated and the new Congress takes 308 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: the seat takes its its place. I'm very barish on that. 309 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 1: I think that's an unlikely scenario that there will be 310 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 1: some sort of large scale fiscal deal UH in that period. Now, 311 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 1: that could change. I don't feel as strongly about that, 312 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: and I'll tell you why. So let's talk about the 313 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: incentives again. Nancy Pelosi, if she wants to clear the 314 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 1: decks for Joe Biden, if she believes it's advantageous for 315 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 1: Joe Biden to come in and to not have to 316 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 1: do that, then she will push for it. Because Mitch McConnell, 317 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:41,479 Speaker 1: is he about to lose the Senate? Is Chuck Schumer 318 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 1: want to get it off? Biden's played as well. If 319 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: all of those things converge, then that could happen. But 320 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: if any of those things slide away, I don't care 321 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: what Josh Kodheimer or Rocana or uh pat to me 322 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: or any of these people say, it doesn't make a difference. 323 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: Every all of the leadership has to be aligned. Now, listen, 324 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: if this doesn't happen in the lane you're talking about 325 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: a fiscal stimulus deal that I would view as somebody 326 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: who's covered this, unlikely until late February, you know, sometime 327 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 1: in February or March. And I'm I know that's not 328 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 1: what people want to hear. But January is shot. The 329 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 1: President doesn't get into office until the end of the month. 330 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:17,639 Speaker 1: Then it's going to take some weeks. I mean, it 331 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 1: takes the Senate a week to do anything. Then you 332 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: have fights over whether to eliminate the so called filibuster, 333 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,680 Speaker 1: the sixty vote requirement to do things. So I mean, 334 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 1: there's just things don't happen in a vacuum. Things don't 335 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,160 Speaker 1: happen because people want them to happen on the outside. 336 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: This is an institution that could only take so much 337 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 1: external pressure or so much water, and everything has to 338 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: align for something big like that to happen. So on 339 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: that note, one of the conversations that Joe and I 340 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 1: have had this year is about the idea of automatic 341 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 1: stabilizers in the economy, or basically the notion that you 342 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: could bypass all this political gridlock if you had an 343 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:02,240 Speaker 1: automatic thing that kicked in and say, unemployment went above 344 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: a certain level. So you know, if unemployment reached twelve 345 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 1: percent or something like that. That's pretty extreme. You would 346 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 1: have I don't know, additional checks that suddenly get mailed 347 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: out to Americans making below a certain income. And that's 348 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: something that we spoke about with the economist Claudia some 349 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:26,680 Speaker 1: Do you think that's an interesting, uh solution or potential 350 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: solution to the problem that we're discussing here. So it's interesting, 351 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: but it's not going to happen. And I'll tell you why. 352 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 1: I mean, this would require Congress, Congress giving away the 353 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 1: one thing that it has, which is power. People don't 354 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: get into this business by and large for noble reasons. 355 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: They don't get into it because they want to solve 356 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 1: some sort of major crisis. In many cases, they get 357 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 1: into this business because they want power and want to 358 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: increase it and exercise it in ways that benefit them 359 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: and their constituents and their party a large. And if 360 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,360 Speaker 1: you have some sort of automatic turn offs which that 361 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 1: turns off that power, that says, well, like think about it, 362 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 1: think about it this way, Tracy. Like. The big argument 363 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 1: here over fiscal stimulus is the White House's disagreement with 364 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,679 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi that the that states and state and local 365 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: governments need money. This entire argument has been over that 366 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 1: dynamic at its core, right like, and it's a difference 367 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 1: of really a hundred fifty billion dollars, and there's a 368 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 1: ton of disagreements that's that come off of that. So 369 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: an entire deal is being held up because of one dynamic. 370 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,239 Speaker 1: People wouldn't have the ability to do that if they 371 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 1: set something on a glide path. We've had similar discussions 372 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 1: when I mean we, I mean like America and Congress 373 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 1: over the debt ceiling, whether there should be some sort 374 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: of automatic trigger by which Congress should raise the nation's 375 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: borrowing limit to avoid kind of you know, uh crises 376 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 1: that that come up when the borrowing limit is reached. 377 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: And Congress has by and large said note to that 378 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 1: because they see it as a safety valve. Congress likes 379 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: this conflict. This tension animates Congress, This tension drives Congress. 380 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 1: There's no if we had automatic switches in in our 381 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: government system, the power would diminish and it would almost 382 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: not need to exist in the same way that it exists. 383 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 1: So I just think that everybody has an incentive to 384 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,719 Speaker 1: keep these things on the table because it lends it 385 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:33,439 Speaker 1: lends leverage points for other things that Congress wants to accomplish. 386 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 1: I think this is a super super interesting point, just 387 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: an interesting thing to think of. You know, you also 388 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 1: hear it in the context of, well, what about giving 389 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve more tools through legislation such that it 390 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: could print money and put put dollars into people's bank account. 391 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 1: But all of that, as you say, implicitly means that 392 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: Congress would have to be willing to permanently give up 393 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: the power or in the future and permanently sort of 394 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: be willing to not be there. And as it sounds like, 395 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 1: the sort of the fiscal clip ification of policy in 396 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: the end is something that even know it's miserable, is 397 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 1: actually something Congress wants to keep. Yeah, and Congress likes inefficiency, right. 398 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 1: Inefficiency drives Congress and drives policymakers because it gives opportunity 399 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,199 Speaker 1: to get other things done. I mean, you see this 400 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 1: all the time. Mitch McConnell said, no fiscal stimulus will 401 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 1: come to the Senate floor unless we have the chance 402 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 1: to overhaul liability laws. That is a it's a it's 403 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 1: a related issue. But like everybody agrees on a subset 404 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 1: of things, everybody agrees to paycheck protection program should be extended. Everybody. 405 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 1: Most people agree with a set of stimulus checks um 406 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: some level of state and government funding. There is the 407 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: lowest common denominator. But these kind of leverage points exist 408 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,719 Speaker 1: for a reason in our system of government. Maybe not 409 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,399 Speaker 1: for the best and most noble reasons, but exist, and 410 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 1: and it's difficult to to remove those because that would 411 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 1: be basically undermining our entire system of government and the 412 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 1: system of government that allows these leverage points. You put 413 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:17,120 Speaker 1: it earlier that politicians are basically playing the American public 414 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,399 Speaker 1: and that a lot of these choke points in the 415 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:23,880 Speaker 1: system and these varying motivations that prevent politicians from actually 416 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 1: doing what might be needed by the economy is fairly obvious. 417 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: Why don't Americans see that? Why don't they put more 418 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 1: pressure on politicians? And you know, for instance, one of 419 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: the things that's been coming up a lot lately is 420 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: the notion that even though under the Trump administration, the 421 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: US federal deficit jump to I can't remember what it 422 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 1: is right now, but you know, like I think the 423 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,400 Speaker 1: highest on record, and we've seen government debt really balloon. 424 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 1: Republicans haven't said much about that, but if Biden gets selected, uh, 425 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 1: and is an office come January. You a lot of 426 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 1: Republicans have been talking about they are going to potentially 427 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,639 Speaker 1: start complaining about the deficit, and they've been like pretty 428 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 1: open about that. And it seems fairly obvious that when 429 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 1: Republicans are in office, they don't say anything about US 430 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,440 Speaker 1: that levels, and then when they're out of office, suddenly 431 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 1: US that matters. And it's basically a hammer at which to, 432 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 1: you know, with which to hit the Democrats. How Come 433 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 1: people don't see that, like why does this work? Why 434 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:32,919 Speaker 1: is TC able to to play this game? Well? I 435 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 1: think many reasons. I mean I when I started covering 436 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:40,199 Speaker 1: politics in two thousand and nine, Republicans were unwilling to 437 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 1: spend a single dollar of federal money without offsetting it 438 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 1: in another area. It was a way to to ding 439 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 1: the president. And it was at the time Barack Obama, 440 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: and it was it was organizing governing theory right um. 441 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: And and it was led by John Bayner and Mitch McConnell, 442 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 1: who at that point were fiscal hawks and saw it 443 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 1: within their interests to do that. Obviously, that all changed 444 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,200 Speaker 1: with Donald Trump, who's not a conservative or even really 445 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: a Republican by any traditional definition when it comes to 446 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: fiscal policy and and things of that nature. Um, without 447 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 1: putting Donald Trump on the proverbial therapist couch, I will 448 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,439 Speaker 1: try to answer the underlying question, which is, here's what 449 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:23,439 Speaker 1: Here's what I found. I found that voters and interested parties, 450 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 1: and when I say interested parties, I mean financial markets 451 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:31,880 Speaker 1: and Hollywood and Silicon Valley only engage in politics when 452 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: they absolutely need to and don't really understand the general 453 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: organizing philosophies. So when they when these kinds of things happen, uh, 454 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 1: they're taken by surprise and um and listen, I would 455 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: say broadly speaking that, um, we live in a tribal society. 456 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,880 Speaker 1: We really do. And our country is organized in congressional 457 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 1: districts that are extremely partisan and where the top of 458 00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: the party sets the agenda and no one has the 459 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,119 Speaker 1: sentive to go toward the middle. Because when when Congressman 460 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 1: Republican Congressman X goes back to his district and is 461 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 1: faces his voters for the first time, uh in a 462 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,439 Speaker 1: week or two weeks, the question is not what are 463 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: you doing to keep Donald Trump and check? The question 464 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,480 Speaker 1: is what are you doing? Why aren't you supporting him more. 465 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 1: And it's really a tone set by the top of 466 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 1: the party because uh, Donald Trump has spent like a 467 00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,600 Speaker 1: drunken sailor. Everybody agrees with that, but people fell in 468 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:27,360 Speaker 1: line because that was the thing to do. And it's 469 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 1: not an intellectually honest exercise. It's just not I mean 470 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,760 Speaker 1: that the tax that the the we saw that with 471 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: the tax reform in two thousand and uh eighteen, seventeen, eighteen, 472 00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,719 Speaker 1: and and it just people are looking for intellectual honesty 473 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: where there really is none. And I do believe, to 474 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: be honest with you, if Joe Biden is elected, uh 475 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: and organizing theory will be a fiscal discipline and Donald 476 00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 1: Trump has said if I'm elected to a second term, 477 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 1: fiscal discipline will be my priority. As if we're to 478 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:59,639 Speaker 1: believe that after four years of it not being anyone's priority. 479 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 1: So I actually want to go back to this question 480 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 1: of the politics of automatic stabilizers because I'm I'm curious. 481 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 1: You know, you've like described the last ten years in 482 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 1: d C. And the one consistent theme is that under 483 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 1: Obama and under Trump, Republicans, as you described it, sought 484 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: to use crisis to sort of uh in the certain 485 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: policy goals. So obviously, UM do a sort of this 486 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: desire to use the two thousand nine through two thousand 487 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: eleven period to get some sort of austerity spending cuts 488 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 1: supposed alongside the dead sailing hike. The current Phase four 489 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 1: stimulus talks have hit a snag, largely around the view 490 00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 1: that Republicans have seen this as an opportunity too exact 491 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 1: reforms for cities and states. I mean, I know this 492 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,439 Speaker 1: is a huge issue. I say, like talk radio, this 493 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,160 Speaker 1: idea of like a blue state bailout, and the perception 494 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 1: has been forever that they have unsustainable pensions and so forth, 495 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 1: and so the GOP has seen this as a moment 496 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,399 Speaker 1: of like, Okay, this may be a moment of reform. Meanwhile, 497 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 1: on the left, more broadly, um, there is this sort 498 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 1: of like policy push that yes, uh, you know, automatic stabilizers, 499 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:32,360 Speaker 1: more aggressive, more aggressive unemployment insurance should be a thing 500 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 1: if there is a you know, and again by the 501 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,400 Speaker 1: who by the time people are listening to this, who knows. 502 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: But if there is a big democratic sweep, is it 503 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 1: possible that it's like that the Democrats may view it's like, yeah, okay, 504 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 1: there's political gains to be had by governing in a cliff, 505 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 1: but the last ten years have showed us that's largely 506 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 1: Republicans using these moments to get spending cuts or reforms. 507 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 1: We could have a permanent gain in our sort of 508 00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 1: like policy agenda by taking some of these opportunities off 509 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 1: the table. Is it possible that the dynamics shift on 510 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: automatic stabilizers if Democrats were to win really big No, 511 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think Pelosi's against them, although 512 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 1: her number two, Stenny Hoyer of Maryland, who's her uh 513 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:22,240 Speaker 1: sometimes ally and sometimes rival, is for them. Broadly speaking, 514 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 1: I think he has spoken favorably because there are people 515 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party who want that done. Um. I 516 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: think again, I think members of Congress like the opportunity 517 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 1: to review policies, and if things are on autopilot, they 518 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: get that opportunity taken away. I will say this though, Um, 519 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 1: I think there is a period of time in the 520 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 1: first hundred days of this if if let's let's work 521 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: with a base case that Democrats when the White House 522 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 1: to Senate in the House, there will be a hundred 523 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 1: or so days where Democrats will have a huge mandate 524 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 1: to get things done and Republicans will be de incentivized 525 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 1: to block them and will be incentivized to work with 526 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 1: them on some order fiscal package coupled with maybe some 527 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,840 Speaker 1: sort of infrastructure element, and I think that that will 528 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 1: be easier, and you know, I think it will be 529 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 1: easier than it is now. I think that they could 530 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: get away with more in that time period. I don't 531 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 1: think they can get away with automatic stabilizers. I just 532 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 1: think that's a bridge too far. One other thing I 533 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: want to mention that I don't want to. I don't 534 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 1: want to get off of your platform without mentioning this. 535 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 1: Another thing I think people are vastly misreading, and I 536 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,440 Speaker 1: could be wrong on this. My confidence level is relatively low, 537 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 1: is that Joe Biden will be eager to raise the 538 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 1: corporate tax rate. I think that is a I just 539 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 1: don't see that right now. Um as, especially in the 540 00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 1: first year of his presidency. I think it's unlikely. I 541 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 1: think that the economy will still be shaky, and I 542 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,480 Speaker 1: don't think Listen, the question that is going to drive 543 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: both my world, which is the political world and the 544 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 1: market world in the next year is whether Democrats learned 545 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 1: lessons from two thousand and nine and two thousand and ten. 546 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 1: I mean, the last Democratic president came in when the 547 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 1: world was on fire and had to pass the stimulus, 548 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 1: passed a cap and trade deal through the House of Representatives, 549 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 1: and then passed a healthcare bill and lost sixty something 550 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 1: seats the next year. Have Democrats learned from that experience? 551 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 1: And I don't know the answer to that yet, But 552 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 1: if you assume they have, then attacks increase on corporations. 553 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 1: I don't think. I don't feel confident about this. I 554 00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,640 Speaker 1: don't think is going to be a top agenda. Heighter, 555 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:28,560 Speaker 1: you know, I just want to go back to the 556 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 1: sort of fundamental question about like what what markets or 557 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,360 Speaker 1: Wall Street gets wrong. I mean, you know, there is 558 00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,920 Speaker 1: all this noise and I you know, even people in 559 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 1: who are active market participants laugh at the sort of 560 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:48,280 Speaker 1: market headline driven, maybe elgo driven reaction of market sometimes. 561 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 1: I mean, we had this also um in the UH 562 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 1: the a lot during the trade talks with China, up 563 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 1: and down market. In the end, a lot of this 564 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,400 Speaker 1: hasn't seemed to matter. I mean, in the end, the 565 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 1: fact that our trading relationship with China changed, I didn't 566 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 1: make much of a difference, and markets were sort of 567 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 1: right to ignore it. And to not get you know, 568 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 1: not to read too much into anything at the time, 569 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 1: like in the end, like maybe is it? Is it 570 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 1: the kind of thing where it's just short term. Sure 571 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 1: you can point to things where the markets get it off, 572 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 1: but in the big picture, markets sort of all get 573 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:25,640 Speaker 1: it right and most of the stuff doesn't really matter 574 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 1: either way. But aren't we and this is a question 575 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,120 Speaker 1: for you guys more than anybody else, aren't we living 576 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:36,120 Speaker 1: in a an economy at least? Uh? In a micro sense, 577 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 1: I guess that that there are so many retail investors 578 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 1: that are playing these swings. I mean, I listened to 579 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 1: a previous episode of your of that you guys did 580 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,080 Speaker 1: um about these options and puts and stuff like that, 581 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 1: and people are people are You might have taped that 582 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: a million years ago, But I just listened to recently 583 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 1: and I and um, I was. I was struck by 584 00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,680 Speaker 1: the fact that there are people that are like me, 585 00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 1: who know, who have no business in these kind of 586 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 1: daily market swings, who are making big bets based on 587 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,719 Speaker 1: kind of momentary swings in the market that are driven 588 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 1: by what I consider to be b s headlines. So yes, 589 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 1: if you're if you're a long term investor like me, 590 00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 1: Like my the money that I have is in an 591 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 1: account that I don't even know. I could barely get 592 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,200 Speaker 1: access to it, have to search my email to find 593 00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,760 Speaker 1: the password. And I just hope that at some point 594 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 1: when I retire there will be some money in it 595 00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 1: for me to live on. Like but there are people 596 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,960 Speaker 1: with robin Hood accounts who are sitting around making these 597 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 1: massive making what are massive bets to them based on 598 00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 1: these based on the momentary movements of the S and P, 599 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 1: which are largely based on nonsense. So I think I 600 00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: think our final concluding thought from this point is nobody 601 00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: followed Jake Sherman. If you're in the market, unfollow him 602 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 1: on Twitter, don't subscribe to his newsletter or anything like that. 603 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,239 Speaker 1: Just look along. I assume that's where you wanted us 604 00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,720 Speaker 1: to take it. To take this converse, unfollow him. Um No, 605 00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,320 Speaker 1: But seriously, Jake, thank you so much for joining it. 606 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 1: I enjoy I really enjoy your coverage. Looking forward to 607 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 1: seeing whatever it is to do next your next mystery project, 608 00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: and I'm thanks for coming out a lot. Thanks guys, 609 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:31,920 Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Take care of Jake. Thanks man. You 610 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 1: know I joked about that that last comment, and but 611 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 1: I have sort of like, but you're you're really serious. No, 612 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,399 Speaker 1: But it's like it's kind of an interesting question. It's 613 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 1: like we always preach there is this tension, right, because 614 00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 1: we're always like you all, there is just so much noise, 615 00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 1: long term un economic data point, a headline out of DC, 616 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,520 Speaker 1: a virus number, um and mortkets do react on it, 617 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 1: but at the same time, and they sort of like 618 00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:04,040 Speaker 1: feature this idea of like ignoring the noise, Like there 619 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,480 Speaker 1: is kind of like a tension between following the media 620 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 1: and following all this stuff and then looking back and saying, like, 621 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,839 Speaker 1: how little of it actually matters. Well, this is the 622 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:17,280 Speaker 1: old signal versus noise debate, And I know you touched 623 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,640 Speaker 1: upon it, but to me, you know, it's easy to 624 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:23,880 Speaker 1: say that markets should ignore the short term noise and 625 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 1: they should focus on longer term trends and you know, 626 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 1: stay committed to their core positions and things like that. 627 00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,839 Speaker 1: But I think what we overlook when we do that 628 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 1: is that markets are inherently forward looking and everyone is 629 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:43,359 Speaker 1: trying to pinpoint the next turning point. And I think 630 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,320 Speaker 1: that's why you end up getting a lot of focus 631 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,279 Speaker 1: on these short term things. And you know, I've seen 632 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 1: some pretty good points made about, for instance, how the 633 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 1: market reacted in the lead up to World War two, 634 00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 1: and that actually people looked through a lot of statements 635 00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:04,560 Speaker 1: and of coal developments that in retrospect marked a clear 636 00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:09,839 Speaker 1: change in the way the world's political system was actually functioning. 637 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,280 Speaker 1: And I think that's what we're missing. Like everything, everything 638 00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 1: hindsight is in retrospect. You could say, well, it doesn't 639 00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,120 Speaker 1: really matter that Pelosi said she was optimistic on this 640 00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:26,160 Speaker 1: particular day, but if you do get that stimulus bill 641 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,880 Speaker 1: in the next week or so, then suddenly that noise 642 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 1: looks like a signal, right, like, and that's what everyone's 643 00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:35,560 Speaker 1: trying to figure out. Yes, I think that's exactly right. 644 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,920 Speaker 1: And I think this is where I would like push back. Um, 645 00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:40,880 Speaker 1: And you know, I could have done it while it's here, 646 00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 1: and I meant to. But you know, like I think, 647 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:47,560 Speaker 1: when you see these moves, you know, people might say, like, oh, 648 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,960 Speaker 1: the market believes that there's a stimulus, or the market 649 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:52,880 Speaker 1: doesn't believe that there's a stimulus. So the market so 650 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,000 Speaker 1: this headline and believes, now these moves may not be 651 00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,440 Speaker 1: the market believing in the stimulus. These moves maybe the 652 00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,880 Speaker 1: market leaving there was a one percent chance of a 653 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,480 Speaker 1: stimulus moving to a two percent chance of a stimulus, 654 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,279 Speaker 1: And I think that's sort of like and maybe like 655 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,280 Speaker 1: it should be less like maybe these comments should cause 656 00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,480 Speaker 1: the market to go from one percent to one point 657 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,279 Speaker 1: one percent or whatever it is. Maybe the calibration is off, 658 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 1: But I don't think that these reactions are so binary, 659 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,239 Speaker 1: Like we don't really know what the market it's like 660 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 1: implied stimulus odds are are at any time, or how 661 00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,640 Speaker 1: much it's waiting stimulus. But these moves may not really 662 00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,200 Speaker 1: be that much. And so I think you're exactly right. 663 00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:36,759 Speaker 1: Most news items are noise, but you don't really know 664 00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,120 Speaker 1: which ones are going to mark some sort of turning point, 665 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,520 Speaker 1: and so in the short term, investors have to assess 666 00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:50,360 Speaker 1: probabilistically the how much they could represent something new. And 667 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,680 Speaker 1: so I think, like, well, may look like that's a 668 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:58,319 Speaker 1: rational headline driven markets how it goes whatever, Maybe less crazy, 669 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:02,120 Speaker 1: uh than we think they are, just because sometimes headlines 670 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,600 Speaker 1: do turn into things that then become something else. And 671 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,200 Speaker 1: I think, like, you know, like the virus itself was 672 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,640 Speaker 1: at some point a thing back in junior February that 673 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,960 Speaker 1: markets had to assess based on sort of conditional odds 674 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,399 Speaker 1: and without some sort of clear idea of how big 675 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,839 Speaker 1: it would be. Sometimes big things happen, Oh yeah, And 676 00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,960 Speaker 1: anyone trading short term headlines that we're coming out of 677 00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,880 Speaker 1: Asia in you know, January and February, it would have 678 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,200 Speaker 1: been in a really good position for the rest of 679 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 1: the year. I think the one other thing I would 680 00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:34,759 Speaker 1: say is I feel like there's there's this undercurrent of 681 00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:39,239 Speaker 1: sort of market nihilism in this conversation, this idea that 682 00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:43,400 Speaker 1: nothing really matters, and I think I think there is 683 00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:47,480 Speaker 1: a portion of the market where I feel that, And 684 00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,799 Speaker 1: I gotta say it's it's I mean, Jake kind of 685 00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:52,680 Speaker 1: touched on this, but he went in a different direction. 686 00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:56,160 Speaker 1: For me, it's robin Hood, right, it's robin Hood and Bitcoin, 687 00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,640 Speaker 1: where people are trading stuff that is almost completely divorced 688 00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:04,520 Speaker 1: from fundamentals and economic reality at this point, and it's 689 00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 1: all based on headlines or you know, just getting together 690 00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:11,600 Speaker 1: and saying that you're going to push up this particular 691 00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:15,319 Speaker 1: stock using options and things like that. Like, to me, 692 00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,960 Speaker 1: that particular market seems to have gone off in a 693 00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,719 Speaker 1: totally different direction. Yeah, I mean that exists, Does that 694 00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:23,960 Speaker 1: make sense. This is like this is the sort of 695 00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,600 Speaker 1: like betting, you know, like that that part of the 696 00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:30,520 Speaker 1: market has just descended into short term betting and gambling. Yeah, 697 00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,919 Speaker 1: there is a lot of gambling and games playing for sure. 698 00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:37,320 Speaker 1: Whether that results in major miss pricings of how it 699 00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,719 Speaker 1: given stock or index is relative to the earnings of 700 00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 1: the components of that stock or indec I think there's 701 00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:46,520 Speaker 1: another question. But there is a lot of sort of pure, 702 00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 1: sort of pure online poker happening in the financial world 703 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:54,799 Speaker 1: these days. Yeah, I think that's fair. Okay, Well, um, 704 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,359 Speaker 1: six days to go until the election, and by the 705 00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,040 Speaker 1: time we release this, uh, lots of stuff might have changed, 706 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:06,080 Speaker 1: or it'll all be irrelevant. Yeah, it'll all be irrelevant. Um. 707 00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,480 Speaker 1: I don't know if that's comforting or not. Um, hopefully 708 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,239 Speaker 1: it is. Okay. Should we leave it there. Let's leave 709 00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,399 Speaker 1: it there. This has been another episode of the All 710 00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,200 Speaker 1: Thoughts podcast. I'm Chracy Alloway. You can follow me on 711 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,239 Speaker 1: Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Why Isn't All? 712 00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,839 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart, and 713 00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:28,000 Speaker 1: you should follow our guest Jake Sherman at Jake Sherman. 714 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:32,400 Speaker 1: Follow our producer Laura Carlson at Laura M. Carlson. Follow 715 00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:36,040 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg head of podcast, Francesco Leavi at Francesco Today, 716 00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,240 Speaker 1: and check out all of our podcasts onto the handle 717 00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:43,640 Speaker 1: at podcasts. And if you like Odd Lots, please leave 718 00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,640 Speaker 1: us a five star review on iTunes help more people 719 00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:50,600 Speaker 1: discover discover the podcast, but really appreciate it. Thanks for 720 00:40:50,640 --> 00:41:07,000 Speaker 1: listening to