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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I can just about that action all right?

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Speaker 3: Here we all probes throwing out spect We're sitting up

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Speaker 3: to cash, touchtop.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see. Most gamble is ships.

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Speaker 1: When they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate combine if you want to fall.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway? What is up?

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Speaker 1: Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybaon. This is our NFL Week

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Speaker 1: number fifteen betting preview. We're going to talk sides, totals, props, moneyline, underdog, parways, anytime,

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Speaker 1: touchdown parways. But of course, as always, we're gonna build

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Speaker 1: our Sunday six pack up against the spread bets with

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Speaker 1: the help of my co host, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 1: Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. What is going on? You've been

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Speaker 1: hot this year. You're roped forty seven thirty four in

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Speaker 1: our in our six pack contest. How's it going? Man? Good?

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Speaker 2: It's a good, good week for the pod. I think

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Speaker 2: we both went too and one. I think we both

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Speaker 2: hit our totals.

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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, no, no, no, no, I didn't hit my total.

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Speaker 2: Uh, well hit my total, hit my money on the dog.

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Speaker 2: You got Wilson touchdown. Sadly we couldn't get the long

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Speaker 2: shot in. But it was a good week. But I

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Speaker 2: will say it was lucky and that was nice for

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Speaker 2: once I had the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Oh that was amazing.

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Speaker 2: Shout out Brandon Jones for the delay of game. Shout

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Speaker 2: out Pete Carroll for kicking the field goal. One of

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Speaker 2: the luckiest covers I will ever have, So I will

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Speaker 2: cherish that one.

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Speaker 1: That was our lucky cover. Didn't you have the You

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Speaker 1: were with me on the Monday Night under two? Right

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Speaker 1: like the uh the Jawen Hurts just throws the ball

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Speaker 1: away at the end to save the under.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, no, I didn't have the under there. I had.

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Speaker 2: I have the Chargers tease just to cause out a teaser.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's good week. But who cares. We're on

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Speaker 2: to the next and we are on to week fifteen

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Speaker 2: with some crazy quarterback news. I mean, we don't know

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Speaker 2: who's going to be quarterback for the Jets. Is Philip

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Speaker 2: Rivers grandfather River is going to be the quarterback. So

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about those games later and then we have

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Speaker 2: some some bangers with major playoff implications. Bill's Patriots, Ravens, Bengals, Chargers, Chiefs, Packers, Broncos, Lions, Rams.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, there's there's some bangers on Sunday. So I'm

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Speaker 2: looking forward to it and hopefully you can find some winners.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll probably get your thoughts at the end of

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Speaker 1: the six pack on just you know, some of those

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Speaker 1: AFC teams if you're buying low on any of them.

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Speaker 1: But let's go through the six pack.

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Speaker 2: First Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Start us off a week number fifteen seventy six pack

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Speaker 1: where you go first.

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Speaker 2: All right, for my first pick of the week fifteen

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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Buffalo Bills pick

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Speaker 2: at the New England Patriots. This time of year, not

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Speaker 2: going to find a ton of like huge line discrepancies

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Speaker 2: between what I make numbers and what I don't. But

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Speaker 2: I like this for a number of reasons. One, I'm

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Speaker 2: going to war with Josh Allen if I just need

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Speaker 2: to win the game. If you're interested in trends as

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Speaker 2: a dogg or a favored to less than a field goal,

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Speaker 2: He's thirty fourteen and two against the spread. Only Brady

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Speaker 2: and Breeze have been more profitable eighteen eight and two

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Speaker 2: against the spread on the road, nineteen and seven against

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Speaker 2: the spread when the spread is under three in either direction.

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Speaker 2: So like that's seventy three percent. Does I just need

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Speaker 2: Alan to win the game in a game that's supposed

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Speaker 2: to be competitive. I'm taking them over pretty much anyone

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Speaker 2: right now. Also, home teams off of bye, you're going

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Speaker 2: to hear a lot about this for Able six and

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Speaker 2: Zer against the spread after the buye. I get it.

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Speaker 2: Like one of the games there was it was a

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Speaker 2: Tuesday with COVID, there was Taylor, Heinike, rookie Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 2: I don't put too much stock in that. I do

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Speaker 2: think home teams off the buy are overrated in market

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Speaker 2: in general. I mean, over the past ten years forty

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Speaker 2: two percent against the spread, forty percent in the division

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Speaker 2: where home field advantage is you know, about fifty percent

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Speaker 2: less overall. It's cold, there's potential snow outdoors one o'clock start,

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Speaker 2: like bills are all used to all of those things.

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Speaker 2: May in the past has had some issues with conditions.

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Speaker 2: That's not if it snows, if there's any conditions now

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Speaker 2: and is as good as it gets. We saw that

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Speaker 2: last week. There's also some potential regression coming for the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: They've been pretty lucky in a number of different areas.

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Speaker 2: They're fourteen at eighteen on fourth downs, number one in

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Speaker 2: the league. They're number one in EPA per play on

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Speaker 2: four downs one point seven. I mean you're talking like

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Speaker 2: on average when they go for it, close to a

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Speaker 2: fuel goal per game. Their opponents are seven of twenty two,

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Speaker 2: so their defense is number three in the NFL fourth

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Speaker 2: down So their fourth down swings in these games have

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Speaker 2: been pretty drastic in benefit of the Pats. They've also

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Speaker 2: had fifteen fumbles, they've only lost seven. They've recovered seventy

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Speaker 2: percent of their opponent's fumbles. Drake may look he's been amazing.

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Speaker 2: I'm in on him, but he's been a bit fortunate.

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Speaker 2: He has twenty three touchdowns, six interceptions, his twenty two

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Speaker 2: big time throws, thirteen turnover worthy plays. Allen for example,

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Speaker 2: is twenty two to ten and eighteen to eleven, So

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Speaker 2: like right in line with what you would think, here's

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Speaker 2: the thing, and then what how I think this game

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Speaker 2: is going to play out? So the The Bills don't

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Speaker 2: play a ton of single high. They play a lot

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Speaker 2: of zone. That's not ideal against May. I think is

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Speaker 2: going to move the ball here, but I think that

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Speaker 2: the Bills can bow up in the red zone, and

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Speaker 2: that's where the Patriots have lots of issues. They're twenty

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Speaker 2: fourth in red zone touchdown percentage on offense, and they've

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Speaker 2: really just struggled to finish drives once the field kind

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Speaker 2: of condenses and you take away that deep ball of

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Speaker 2: Drake May. The Bills, on the other hand, pretty good

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Speaker 2: at finishing off drives their ninth in the NFL, and

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Speaker 2: the Patriots on defense are dead last and red zone

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Speaker 2: touchdown percentage allowed. Additionally, their run defense, which was great

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Speaker 2: early on in the season, well, he lost Milton Williams

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Speaker 2: tongets dealing with an injury. But since they lost Milton

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Speaker 2: Williams thirty first in rush success rate allowed. That is

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Speaker 2: critical against the Bills, so we know when to run

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Speaker 2: the ball. Yes, they might get Jared Wilson back their guard,

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Speaker 2: but he's been terrible. I don't really care about that.

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Speaker 2: It's the tackle. Will Campbell's been good as a rookie.

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Speaker 2: His backup Vederian Lowe is unplayable. He'll be in there

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Speaker 2: at left tackle. The Bills can still get pressure. I

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Speaker 2: do believe Spencer Brown is going to be a go

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Speaker 2: back for the Bills on the offensive line. Bosa practice today.

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Speaker 2: That's important because they can get pressure Bernard, who I

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Speaker 2: think is washed, but rather of Thompson in there, he

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Speaker 2: might be back. So Bills trending up health wise. First

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Speaker 2: meeting these teams played, the Bills had three turnovers and

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Speaker 2: eleven penalties in the Pats won on a walk off

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Speaker 2: fifty yard field goal. And here's the thing, here's where

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Speaker 2: the we The Pats have played the single easy schedule

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Speaker 2: by far in the NFL. Everyone knows is but take

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Speaker 2: listen to the quarterbacks they've they've beat, right, They lost

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Speaker 2: to Rodgers and Gino at home. Their best win is

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Speaker 2: that the Bills by three. Here are the quarterbacks they beat.

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Speaker 2: Besides Allen Dart, which was a special teams game, the

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Speaker 2: Giant special teams melted down Bryce Young. Another special teams

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Speaker 2: melt down Pennix. They won by one on a missed

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Speaker 2: extra point. Like I didn't even get into the special teams.

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Speaker 2: Like the Pats special tea has been good. They've return

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Speaker 2: game but they've been They've had these games with these

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Speaker 2: other teams just implode on special teams. Flacco without Chase, Justin,

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Speaker 2: Fields all tanked, ak Or Mayfield, Dylan Gabriel, cam Ward Spencer, Rattler,

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Speaker 2: and Tua. I mean, you're talking about seven of their

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Speaker 2: ten wins have come against quarterbacks that are no longer

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Speaker 2: starting or rookies. So I mean, I think we're at

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Speaker 2: the peak of the market. On the Pats. They've won

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Speaker 2: ten straight, they've covered eight of ten. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: trust Allen to get his revenge here, get it done

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Speaker 2: on the road. I think the Bills will be able

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Speaker 2: to run the ball here. I think they're going to

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Speaker 2: finish drives off more efficiently, and I think they get

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Speaker 2: the win. Give me the Buffalo Bills pick in Foxborough.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I should be joining you on this. I agree.

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Speaker 1: I think the Patriots they're really good. I head over

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Speaker 1: their win total. I think that catched already, but they

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Speaker 1: are still I think like an above average, not elite team.

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Speaker 1: The Bills have been a week at times. They're probably

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Speaker 1: not a week this year, but desperate kind of kind

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Speaker 1: of a must win game for them, just because of

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Speaker 1: the division. They're still probably not going to catch New England,

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Speaker 1: but I still think Buffalo is going to go all

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Speaker 1: out for them one. So I agree especially at a

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Speaker 1: pick all right, for my first pick in the second

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Speaker 1: overall the week fifteen Sunday six pack of going with

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Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers minus two at the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 1: And on the surface, this kind of looks like two

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Speaker 1: teams that are pretty good. Denver's at home has a

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Speaker 1: good home field advantage, So you say, why fade the

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Speaker 1: Broncos Scabbatically, I think this is a big edge for

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Speaker 1: the Packers. The Broncos defense plays single high safety at

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Speaker 1: the sixth highest rate about fifty five percent. Jordan Love

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Speaker 1: first in EPA per dropback against single high, first in

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Speaker 1: total EPA against single high, sixth in success rate against

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Speaker 1: single high out of thirty nine qualified quarterbacks. And what

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Speaker 1: does the Broncos defense do even more than play single high.

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Speaker 1: They played man coverage their first in the league in

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Speaker 1: man coverage rate, Jordan Loved first in the league and

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Speaker 1: EPA drop back against man coverage, second in total EPA

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Speaker 1: versus man third and success rate against man, and second

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Speaker 1: in total touchdown passes against man coverage with seventeen so

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love could beat this coverage. You got Jayden Reid

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Speaker 1: back that helps, you know, and Musk Grave. So the

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Speaker 1: big losses Tucker Craft obviously, you know he was great

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Speaker 1: against man of coverage, especially single high looks. But you

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Speaker 1: know who was even more efficient on obviously a smaller sample,

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Speaker 1: Luke Musbury. So this might be a game where they

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Speaker 1: can unleash him a little bit. Their tight ends have

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Speaker 1: just been kind of all splitting snaps, but really like

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Speaker 1: this spot. Also, if you're gonna beat the Broncos, finally,

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Speaker 1: you're probably gonna have to convert third down, red zone.

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Speaker 1: Broncos number one defense on third down, number one defense

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Speaker 1: in the red zone, Packers on offense, number one on

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Speaker 1: third down, number two in the red zone. So green

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Speaker 1: Bay can. I think green Bay can get the ball

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Speaker 1: in the end zone here more than most of these

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Speaker 1: teams have against the Broncos. And that's important because the

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Speaker 1: Broncos every game almost is a one score game for them.

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Speaker 1: Let's see, so they had an eight point went over

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Speaker 1: the Titans, one point loss to the Coach, three point

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Speaker 1: loss to the Chargers, and they beat the Eagles by four,

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Speaker 1: the Jets by two, the Giants by one, the Texans

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Speaker 1: by three, the Raiders by three and seven, the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: by three, and the Commanders by one in that crazy

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Speaker 1: game a couple of weeks ago. So all these games

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Speaker 1: are not just one score games, but there I mean

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Speaker 1: a lot of them are inside a field goal or

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Speaker 1: at most of field goals. So green Bay being able

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Speaker 1: to turn what a lot of offenses end up, you know,

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Speaker 1: kicking a field goal into a touchdown here I think

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Speaker 1: is big. Also, green Bay's had kicking issues this year,

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Speaker 1: but their kicker McManus has kicked in Denver for a

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Speaker 1: good portion of his career, so I'm hoping that you know,

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Speaker 1: pays off and he does not shank kicks because green Bay.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's been one of the reasons green Bay's

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Speaker 1: just been They're a luck side for us this week too,

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Speaker 1: because and that's part of the reason they've just been

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Speaker 1: terrible at kicking. But luck sides this year are sixty

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Speaker 1: point five percent against the spread at twenty three and fifteen,

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Speaker 1: covering by two point six points per game. And also,

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Speaker 1: by the way, like the matchup on the other side

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Speaker 1: as well, Pack played zone third hosts. Yeah, a lot

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Speaker 1: of zone and we know, just like Jalen Hurts bo

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Speaker 1: Nicks struggles against zone now against the Raiders. I thought

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Speaker 1: he did a decent job in that last matchup, but

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Speaker 1: you look up and he still had a complete like

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Speaker 1: thirty one passes just to get two hundred and sixteen

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Speaker 1: yards or whatever it was. He's twenty second in EPA

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Speaker 1: per drop back against zone ace versus man six point

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Speaker 1: two yards in attempt versus zone. That's thirty fifth, bottom

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Speaker 1: five of thirty nine qualifiers in yards per attempt against

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Speaker 1: zone coverage against Manny's middle of the pack at eighteenth.

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Speaker 1: And then his success rate against zone coverage bottom three

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Speaker 1: thirty sevens at forty two percent against Manny's top ten.

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Speaker 1: So this is just schematically a perfect matchup for the

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Speaker 1: Packers and they can more than most offenses get the

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Speaker 1: ball in the end zone against this Denver d So

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Speaker 1: give me the Green Bay Packers minus two. We consider

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Speaker 1: playing the money line if it doesn't if if the

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Speaker 1: numbers still hovering.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm waiting on a cheat money line. Yeah, lower

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Speaker 2: scoring kicking issues, But I agree from a schematic perspective, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: you don't have to convince me to fade the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: By the way, we're fading two teams that are o

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Speaker 2: have won ten straight games. They might both close as

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Speaker 2: home dogs. Since nineteen eighty when both teams have their

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Speaker 2: starting quarterbacks, It's only happened one time, oh never in

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Speaker 2: the regular season, and it happened in the two thousand

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Speaker 2: and five AFC Championship game when Ben Roethlisberger faced Brady

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Speaker 2: Pitt was a plus two and a half at home

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Speaker 2: on a ten game winning streak, and Patriots won forty

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Speaker 2: one twenty seven. So that's it. That's the only time

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Speaker 2: it's happened. The last nime before them nineteen seventy six

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Speaker 2: between a game two the Steelers and Raiders. But I agree,

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Speaker 2: it's great schematic matchup, big quarterback advantage, and I think

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Speaker 2: the Pack get it done. They're starting to ascend and

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Speaker 2: stamp themselves as a legit contender for a Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I like the Packers as well. For my

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Speaker 2: second pick and the third overall of the week, fifteen

264
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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I am going with the Kansas City

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Speaker 2: Chiefs minus four and a half at home against the

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Speaker 2: Los Angeles Chargers. Everyone's been betting the Chiefs over the

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Speaker 2: last month. I've avoided the oh, desperation must win. I

268
00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:46,600
Speaker 2: thought that they were overvalued in most spots. I think

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Speaker 2: that this line is fine to back them for a

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Speaker 2: number of reasons. One, I mean, Chiefs close higher than

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Speaker 2: this against the Texans, who have a couple points better

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Speaker 2: than the Chargers right now. The Chargers now they're on

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Speaker 2: short after a Monday night game with travel going into

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Speaker 2: what it's going to feel like what ten degrees for

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Speaker 2: an indoor team. That's probably not great for justin Herbert's hand,

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Speaker 2: the Chargers also just are incapable of operating a functional

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Speaker 2: offense right now with the current state of their offensive line.

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Speaker 2: They give up a seventy percent pressure rate last week

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Speaker 2: seventy Herbert was sat seven times. That was against an

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Speaker 2: Eagles defense. It doesn't even get as much pressure as

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs, and they didn't have Jalen Carter. And this

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Speaker 2: is what that offense, since they've had offensive line issues,

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Speaker 2: is done. On the road, lost to the Giants, barely

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Speaker 2: beat the Dolphins, got destroyed by the Jags, and barely

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Speaker 2: beat the Titans. This offense just is not going to

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Speaker 2: be able to function in a hostile environment with the

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Speaker 2: state of that offensive line and a defense that can

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00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,240
Speaker 2: get pressure at a top five rate. The Chiefs have

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Speaker 2: also played the significantly tougher schedule. They're thirty five net

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Speaker 2: points better than the Chargers. They've just been very unlucky

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Speaker 2: in one score games compared to last year. And I

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Speaker 2: like the matchup for the Chiefs offense. Chargers by the

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Speaker 2: highest rate of zone in the league. Mahomes even with

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Speaker 2: this offense, which is still wonky at times, it's still

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00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,400
Speaker 2: shred zone that their receivers kind of struggle to get

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Speaker 2: separation against man, but against zone this year fifty five

297
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Speaker 2: percent success rate, forty five percent against man, seventy four

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Speaker 2: percent higher EPA per play against zone. They do have

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Speaker 2: some offensive line injuries the Chiefs, but it looks like

300
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Speaker 2: Tray Smith is practicing today. That's a good sign. I

301
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 2: liked what I saw from Mesipole if they have to

302
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Speaker 2: go to him. But this is a Chargers team. It's

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Speaker 2: this isn't the Texans. I mean, the Chargers are twenty

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Speaker 2: fourth in pressure rate, so they're going to play a

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Speaker 2: lot of zone. Don't get a ton of pressure. I

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Speaker 2: trust Mahomes to move the ball here, and I trust

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs to get pressure and just crumble this Chargers

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Speaker 2: offense that's completely broken right now. They played a just

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Speaker 2: defunct Eagle offense that Lane Johnson, they didn't have Jalen Carter.

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Speaker 2: They turned the ball over five times, and they needed

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Speaker 2: a goal line stop and overtime to win at home.

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Speaker 2: This team is not good right now. So I think

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Speaker 2: it Chiefs have been like they've been on the presipice

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Speaker 2: of winning like that. I mean they should they should

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Speaker 2: have I don't know, seven eight wins this year. This

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Speaker 2: is like a takeout your frustration game with revenge fromro

317
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Speaker 2: in the season. I think the Chiefs win by fourteen

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Speaker 2: plus give me Kansas City at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I'll have more on this game in a bit,

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Speaker 1: so I'll just we'll just go to my next pick.

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Speaker 1: But before we do, before we continue with the Sunday

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Speaker 1: six pack, just a reminder, you could tell the bets

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: For my second pick, the fourth overall of the week,

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Speaker 1: fifteen Sunday six, I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings plus

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Speaker 1: six and a half at the Dallas Cowboys. Be sure

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Speaker 1: to shop around. I've seen anything from five and a

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Speaker 1: half to six and a half out there as we

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Speaker 1: record this. But Minnesota's defense I think is interesting here

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00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,359
Speaker 1: because it's held its last three opponents under three hundred

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Speaker 1: total yards, including the Packers. In week twelve uh to

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Speaker 1: two eighty eight, they're averaging three forty five against everyone else,

355
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Speaker 1: the Seahawks to just two nineteen. The next week, they're

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Speaker 1: averaging three hundred and sixty five against everyone else. Dak Prescott,

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Speaker 1: he's been good against the Butcher's been good period.

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Speaker 2: That's what I was gonna ask you. Worried about him

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Speaker 2: against the blitz and them hitting explosive passes.

360
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Speaker 1: Yeah, so in theory, Dak Prescott goodgainst the Butitz. But

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Speaker 1: he's been so good that his EPA per dropback actually

362
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,919
Speaker 1: decreases when he's blitzed versus when he's not. But so

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Speaker 1: it's you know, it's kind of like a situation where

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna kind of buy well on this Vikings defense.

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Speaker 1: You know, I still don't think they quite get into respect.

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Speaker 1: I know it was the command that they shut out,

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Speaker 1: which is not not a big deal, but they have

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Speaker 1: everything kind of set up here to at least give

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys some problems. I mean, the Cowboys have just

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Speaker 1: been coasting here and we'll see about Ceede Lamb. Looks

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00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 1: like he probably is gonna go.

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Speaker 2: I'm surprised that he was like fencing. I look like

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00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 2: a serious concussion. I know he has a couple of

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Speaker 2: extra days, but yeah, it looks like he's turning in

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00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:21,720
Speaker 2: the right direction, which.

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Speaker 1: Nine days nine days is usually the median. So that's

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00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 1: kind of right on there when you when you when

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00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,239
Speaker 1: you go down on a Thursday, it's kind of right

379
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,160
Speaker 1: in that that window. So we'll see. But I mean,

380
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 1: could get lucky here and you know, maybe get some

381
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,240
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb out last minute something like that. Who knows.

382
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 1: I mean practice reports on Wednesday. It's hard to really tell.

383
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 1: But slipping over to the offense, Jajie McCarthy is still

384
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: not good. I do I do like that. You know

385
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 1: O'Connell apparently he's went to him before that last game

386
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 1: and say, just stop worrying about all the the you know,

387
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: the technical stuff and just you know, make make quick decisions.

388
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 1: Don't worry about like the footwork and all that stuff.

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00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 1: And he did look better.

390
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Speaker 2: Now, yeh, expectation was about just that like zero, So

391
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 2: that was way better. He sold some mechanical issues, but

392
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 2: the whole operation looked better.

393
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get. I mean if that was part of

394
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 1: the cause, that's a good thing then, because we know

395
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 1: O'Connell usually it's good with these quarterbacks no matter who

396
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: they are, So there had to be something there. So

397
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 1: if he figured that out, you're kind of you're getting

398
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 1: some added value here. But he's also just been unlucky.

399
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 1: A six point six percent drop rate, that's fourth highest

400
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 1: the thirty nine qualified quarterbacks. Dallas plays a ton of zone.

401
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 1: McCarthy's drop rate verson even higher, seven point one percent,

402
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,159
Speaker 1: which is also top four out of thirty nine qualifiers.

403
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 1: So Dallas defense still dead last in passing cards allowed

404
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 1: dead last, and passing touchdowns allowed second to last, and

405
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: adjusted net yards in attempt second to last in DVOA

406
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 1: third to last against the pass. Uh So if there's

407
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,120
Speaker 1: any defense that McCarthy can have another decent game against,

408
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: it's this Dallas defense. Minnesota on the year twenty third

409
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 1: and DVO Dallas nineteenth. So Dallas their schedule has been

410
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 1: a little it's Dallas' schedule has been a little bit

411
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 1: easy to but you look at weighted DVOA which takes

412
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 1: more recent games into account Minnesota twenty one Dallas twenty

413
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 1: So the quality differential between these teams isn't a ton

414
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 1: it's just the quarterback play for the Vikings has been

415
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 1: so up and down with I mean, Wentz is like

416
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 1: the high water mark essentially for quarterback plays. So there

417
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: is some upside here even beyond the number. But I

418
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 1: make this number well inside of six round four, four

419
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 1: and a half is so for me, it's just a

420
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 1: value thing. Weeks fifteen and sixteen road dugs by at

421
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 1: least the field go but no more than one possession.

422
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: So plus three to plus eighty one and seven sixty

423
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 1: percent against the spread over the past two decades, give

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00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:50,280
Speaker 1: me the Vikes.

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00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, this line's too high. I mean we're asking the

426
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: Cowboys to win by seven plus with still a very

427
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 2: shaky defense. And yeah, I was on the Vikings last week.

428
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 2: I thought they were undervalued in market. Well, yeah, it

429
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 2: was nice that those are. They're not easy in the

430
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: NFL to find those that are just sweat free. The

431
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 2: Vikings had a nineteen play, twelve minute, ninety nine yard

432
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 2: touchdown draft that was that was very fun to watch.

433
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 2: So yeah, their defense now is healthy offensive line also

434
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,959
Speaker 2: trending up health wise. They've had so many offensive line injuries.

435
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: Like before last week, they only had one game where

436
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 2: they're starting five all played together on the offensive line.

437
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think this line is too high way.

438
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: Sorry, I was gonna say Dallas Cowboys number thirty and

439
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,439
Speaker 1: Dvoa against number one wide receivers. Vikings did all that

440
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: all that last game, j Jefferson. So yeah, there's a

441
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: lot of upside I think with this Viikens team. I mean,

442
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: it could go horribly wrong obviously, but that's any bet.

443
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,679
Speaker 1: So yeah, give me that, give me of ikes all right.

444
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 2: Uh, We're going to recap our quarterbacks so far. I

445
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 2: have Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. What is going on?

446
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: Okay, my week to catch up to you. Then I

447
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: got McCarthy and who's my other one? Oh no, I

448
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: got Jordan Love Yeah too.

449
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 2: What's what's going on with us? We might have we

450
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 2: might have a virus. We have three top ten quarterbacks

451
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 2: so far, but that changes. Now for my third pick

452
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 2: of the week, fifteen Sunday six back, I'm going with

453
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 2: the Cleveland Browns plus seven and a half at the

454
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,719
Speaker 2: Chicago Bears. This sucks I don't want to do this,

455
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: but I have to. I make it under seven. It's

456
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 2: also a tough spot for the Bears, right it's this

457
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 2: game sandwiched in between huge games against their rival Packers,

458
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 2: which will probably determine their chances of winning the division

459
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 2: going to the playoffs. Like they're still going to try here,

460
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 2: but they need this game for the playoffs. All the

461
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: pressures on them on the Bears, but I could see

462
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: them being just a little flat. It's gonna be freezing cold.

463
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 2: It's like a negative ten, like there's this is gonna

464
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 2: be a running game, low scoring. I'll make the Bears

465
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 2: prove that they can win by more than a touchdown. Look,

466
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 2: there's also the Bear's turnover regression. It's gonna come at

467
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,439
Speaker 2: some point like Caleb's gotten away with some throwers. Their

468
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 2: defense not is not going to continue getting two three

469
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 2: turnovers every single week. They lead to the league by

470
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 2: wide margin in that department if you remove turnovers, this

471
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 2: defense is thirty first in EPA per play. Kyler Gordon

472
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 2: heard again, Johnson still doesn't look right. So they're secondaries

473
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: in full how they and they can't get pressure and

474
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 2: in a game where both teams are going to run

475
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 2: the ball. The Browns defense is first in rush success

476
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 2: rate allowed. The Bears are twenty eighth. Now you might

477
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 2: say what the Titans last week, It is a concern

478
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: of mine, But like, is Malie Collins now? Is he

479
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 2: like Aaron Donald on steroids where he's that important? I

480
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 2: can't just say that Malie Collins being out now this

481
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 2: whole this defense can't stop the run. He's a good player,

482
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 2: but he's not that good. So I still think the

483
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 2: Browns had the better run defense. Now this where it

484
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 2: gets scary is this offense. Sanders has looked better than

485
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 2: I thought he would. But and luckily the Bears don't

486
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 2: get pressure, so that might help with some of the sacks.

487
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: And they're just gonna throw short passes. They're gonna throw

488
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 2: it to my guy fan in a bunch. They're gonna

489
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: try to run the ball, and you can run it

490
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: on the Bears. The Browns. Also, by the way, like this,

491
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 2: the Browns are off two misleading finals. Like, hey, I'll

492
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 2: play out game the Titans by I don't one hundred

493
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: and twenty yards against the forty nine ers. That game

494
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: is really unlucky due to special teams botched. Fourth downs.

495
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: I mean the yards and yards were played. We're dead

496
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 2: even in that game, and now we're saying like the

497
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 2: Bears at seven and a half. I mean, this is

498
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 2: just too I think it should be under a touchdown.

499
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 2: Now where it gets scary, really really scary is the

500
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 2: potential the injuries to the Brown offensive line. This is

501
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 2: my biggest concern. You have this offensive line with I think,

502
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 2: like the defense has some injuries, but they're gonna be

503
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 2: like Collins. But I think Ward's gonna play. He hasn't

504
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 2: been great this year, but he should play. He has

505
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,880
Speaker 2: a calf injury. Otherwise you're down to a guy who's

506
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 2: just on the practice squad. But the offensive line potentially,

507
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 2: I really hope Conklin plays, but it's gonna be their

508
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 2: twelfth different offensive line combo because their center just went

509
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: on ir So you're gonna get Wipler, who's horrendous. He's

510
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 2: now sample size is small, but it's not good. But

511
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 2: if you don't so it looks like it's it might

512
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 2: be Robinson, Potonio, Wipeler Jenkins, who I like, he's fine,

513
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 2: and then at right tackle you might have the Leviston

514
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 2: who's unplayable. So Wipfeler and Leveston in there with a

515
00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback on the road, it's scary and just they

516
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 2: might not even just be able to run the ball

517
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 2: because of that. But this Bears defense is not good.

518
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 2: I mean, look, this is a Bears team that on

519
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 2: the season. And I love this Bears team. I have

520
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 2: all I have that's on them to win the division

521
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 2: over their win total to make the playoffs. But I mean,

522
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 2: this is a team that they beat the Steelers at

523
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 2: home with Mason Rudolph by three. They beat and that

524
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: get that spread was two and a half. Like we're

525
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: saying this, the Steelers are like five points with Mason

526
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 2: and Nott better than the Browns, I don't think so.

527
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 2: They beat the Vikings on a last second, you know,

528
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 2: they beat but by two. They beat the Giants coming

529
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 2: from behind by four. They beat the Bengals coming from

530
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 2: behind by five. So like they beat the Commanders with

531
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 2: a bunch of fun, like they won by one. They

532
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 2: beat the Raiders by one, Like this team doesn't blow

533
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 2: out anyone doesn't get margin. I'm taking the seven half.

534
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 2: It's I think it's a good spot for the Browns.

535
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 2: I'm sure the Bears will win. I'm sure if the

536
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 2: Browns have a chance to win, they'll go for two

537
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 2: and use a botched play to ensure they don't win

538
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 2: for draft positioning. But I make it under seven is

539
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 2: the key thing here. And in a battle of in

540
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 2: the freezing cold where both teams want to run the ball,

541
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 2: I still trust the Bears the Browns run defense much more.

542
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 2: So give me Cleveland curious here your thoughts here.

543
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I make I make this line around just under six. Actually,

544
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: but I'm kind of holding out just because I really

545
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 1: don't know what's happening with this O line. Like is

546
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 1: Conklin going to be back for sure? I know, you know, concussions.

547
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 2: I think we maybe he wasn't there today.

548
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the year that's concerning. Uh. And so that

549
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: it's just kind of like Shoudora has been better than

550
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: I expected. He's gotten the ball down the field a

551
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 1: little bit. He's gotten the ball, you know, to receivers

552
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: who have made plays for him. But if this is

553
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: like you know that he could have peaked already like this,

554
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: because we've been waiting for him to just have like

555
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: one of these abssolutely horrible games. And with it's like

556
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 1: the entire offensive line essentially could be out because even

557
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: you said Botonio, isn't he questionable too?

558
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I think he's gonna go out from what

559
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 2: I've been told.

560
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean he's got If he's got a

561
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 1: knee injury, that's not great. Like who I mean, these

562
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: guys are tough, but who knows if that affects him.

563
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 1: So that like, I'm really concerned about the you know,

564
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: the cluster o line injuries, especially because the Browns are

565
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: such a tight end centric team.

566
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 2: Either.

567
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and just you know, yeah, like if you're gonna

568
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: have fann In having to chip, that's gonna just ruin

569
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: your offense even more so Baits they're blocking tight end

570
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: is on the injury report as well for some somehow

571
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: Uh So, Yeah, there's just a lot of injury information,

572
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: but like all things considered, if the Browns are in

573
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 1: reasonable shape, yeah, I would make this like under under six.

574
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: So I'm just kind of holding out. I want to

575
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: bet the Browns, but I got to see more from

576
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 1: the injury report. We're recording this Wednesday afternoon. Haven't seen

577
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 1: too much yet, but I probably need a probably need

578
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: a Friday report, uh, to be honest, just because if

579
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,239
Speaker 1: their seasons in the tank are you know, they who

580
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: knows who they hold out and who they don't. But yeah,

581
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: if all things considered, I do think the Bears are

582
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: overrated here. And I mean they won by margin against

583
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 1: the Eagles, whose offense we see now is so may

584
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: join you but got it. Got to see the old

585
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: line because behind a terrible O line. Remember that preseason

586
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: game when we were in Chicago and it was like

587
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: negative twenty seven net yard. Yeah, that that's what I'm

588
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: trying to avoid.

589
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 2: Scardell completely sideways.

590
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: But I'm taking you got and I got McCarthy, So

591
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: go wrong, all right? To close it out, my third

592
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: and final pick and the sixth overall this week, fifteen

593
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: to six pack, I'm going with the Washington Commanders plus

594
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 1: two and a half at the Giants. See if this

595
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: gets to three, I doubt it, but there is.

596
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: I'm waiting on. I'm dying for three.

597
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: There's some cheap two and a half out there, so

598
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: it could it could get there. Daniels has been ruled

599
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: out early in the week. However, however, Mariota this year

600
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: has been better than Daniels. EPA.

601
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 2: This is one of my that was my one of

602
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: the premises for ridd at the Vikings last week because

603
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 2: Daniels was starting there.

604
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 1: You go, yeah, it's EPA drop back Mariota better point

605
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: two nine, two point one seven success rate Mariota fifty

606
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: and a half percent, Daniels forty eight point four percent.

607
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: Yards perttenp Mariota seven point two, Daniel six point nine.

608
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 2: The Giants passing, he's throwing. He's actually throws the ball

609
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 2: down the field. He's good big steal with the blitz better,

610
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 2: he's dealt with pressure better. I mean, Daniels has been

611
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 2: miserable this year, and two.

612
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 1: Of your top receivers are back in McLaurin and then

613
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: Noah Brown. Now you lost Zach Ertz, but you are

614
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: deep at tight end. You know, Bates really good blocker.

615
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 1: They can especially with McLaurin and Brown back, they don't

616
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 1: need Ertz as much in this spot. So, uh, this

617
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: Giants defense still bad against the run. The Commanders have

618
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: Rodriguezo's been very efficient and they've just started to kind

619
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 1: of get him going, but certain games scripts haven't really

620
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: allowed them to. But the Giants overall defensively, I know

621
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 1: they've fired bowing, so they could be trending up who

622
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 1: knows coming off to buy? But uh, twenty ninth in DVOA,

623
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 1: they're one of only five defenses worse than Washington.

624
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 2: Washington to the ball here.

625
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's really what they've been. I mean, they've

626
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: just been in so many negative game scripts. They haven't

627
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: covered much outside the Denver game, it's been but they're

628
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: expected scores. Uh. You know, they've been unlucky, very unlucky. Uh,

629
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 1: they should be. They should have been a lot closer

630
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: in a lot of those games. And then another just

631
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: the spot that we love, dog shutout, dog off a shutout,

632
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: sixty two percent against the spread since two thousand and

633
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 1: three at forty eight, twenty nine and two, covering by

634
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: over two points a game twenty percent. OI. You go

635
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: and look at the teams on the road in that spot,

636
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: they're even better at sixty four percent against the spread,

637
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: covering by over three points the game.

638
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 3: Uh.

639
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: And then if you look at everything post October, so

640
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,879
Speaker 1: essentially the second half of the year, also sixty four

641
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 1: point three percent since two thousand and three, covered by

642
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: three point one points per game over a twenty percent ROI.

643
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: And you'll also mentioned, you know, these home teams coming

644
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 1: off to buy in the division are overrated. They've been

645
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: what about forty percent against the spread over the last

646
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: decade or so. So like the spot for the Commanders,

647
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: the Commanders are probably still the better team. And the

648
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,759
Speaker 1: Giants have just lost excruciatingly close games or they'll get

649
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: blown out. So Washington used to be a team that

650
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 1: would struggle against the Giants, but they covered their last

651
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: three I believe, Yeah, the last three games in this matchup.

652
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: So like Washington here, like the adjustments dan Quinn made defensively,

653
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 1: it's still not a good defense, but against the Giants

654
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: they should be able to get it done here.

655
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Giants are just going into like pure run

656
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 2: it mode in dark Down. I think it's going to

657
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 2: run as much maybe after the concussion with them out

658
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 2: of it, and I think that's one of their best weapons.

659
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean there's home field here is almost nothing.

660
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 2: It's a team's home field is the highest when you

661
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 2: have one team that doesn't play on the same type

662
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 2: of surface and it's not a division game, and it's

663
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 2: at a different time than they're used to playing. This

664
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 2: is one o'clock in division outdoors, and there's yeah, I mean,

665
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:29,280
Speaker 2: there is at this point in time, there's almost nothing

666
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: separating these teams. So I could I could make this

667
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 2: like I could you could say that you could make

668
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 2: this Giants minus one, but this is a coin flip

669
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: type game, and Washington's better with myot. I saw the

670
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 2: announcement come out, Daniel's out, Mariota, and and I'm watching

671
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 2: the board and they went from two to two and

672
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 2: a half to choice two and a half, and I'm like,

673
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 2: just go to three. It's also a good teaser piece

674
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 2: if it never gets the Maybe you compare it with

675
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 2: like the the Saints getting them to eight and a

676
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 2: half through three and seven in the game that has

677
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 2: a total forty. That's a good teaser piece as well.

678
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,439
Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree with you here. They are much better.

679
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: Their offense functions much more efficiently right now. Doesn't mean

680
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 2: the Marriot is bad. I mean, Maria is probably the

681
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 2: best backup in the league, but he might be starting

682
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 2: somewhere next year. It doesn't mean he's better than Daniels,

683
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: but right now he is, and that offense is like

684
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,879
Speaker 2: Daniel's double injuries. He just has never gotten a rhythm

685
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 2: with this offense. So yeah, I and Washington'll be able

686
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 2: to run the ball here. So I agree with you.

687
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 2: I think this line is a little too high.

688
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 1: Yeah again, chop around for the three or wait for

689
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 1: the three. You know, two to two and a half.

690
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: It's not really gonna change much. But we have seen

691
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 1: some you know, the giants kind of getting juiced minus

692
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 1: two and a half. So Washington could get to three

693
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 1: a juice three. We'll see how that goes. But that

694
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 1: is our week fifteen six pack stuck. You got Josh Allen,

695
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:10,399
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, and Shadoor Sanders, so Barbell strategy not seem

696
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: to leave like it. I got Mariota McCarthy and Jordan

697
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 1: Love So one out of three, one out of three

698
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 1: good ones, hopefully I can get. Yeah, it's not it's

699
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 1: not good overall, but I need it. I need a

700
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 1: week like you just can't catch you no matter what,

701
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 1: like go to and one hit whatever, just you're you

702
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 1: didn't stay in hot. So hopefully this is the week,

703
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 1: but I'll see how it goes. That's our week fifteen,

704
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 1: Sunday six Back again. If you like the tail these picks,

705
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 1: just look for the quick slip link in the podcast

706
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 1: and video description. Be sure to sign up for Action

707
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: Pro for instant notifications when all of our bets are tracked.

708
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 1: Now it's time for our favorite totals of week fifteen.

709
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 1: I will start us aw since you started us off

710
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 1: on the six pack stuck, I'm going with the Chiefs

711
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 1: Chargers under forty two.

712
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 2: Uh.

713
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 1: Maybe this gets to forty three. I doubt it, but

714
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 1: you could probably hold out. It is the Chiefs uh

715
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 1: and two good quarterbacks, so it could get up there.

716
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: But this Charger offensive line you talked about it earlier. No,

717
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: Ray Shawn's later coming into the year. You lose joeallt

718
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: Pimpkins is questionable with an ankle. It's a short week

719
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 1: since Joe all went down. They played four games without

720
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 1: him starting. They've averaged one hundred and thirty seven passing

721
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 1: yards five point two yards per attempt. They've given up

722
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,320
Speaker 1: four and a half sacks per game, a fourteen point

723
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 1: five percent sack rate, which is absurd. The league averages

724
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 1: like half less than half that four point two yards

725
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: per play. It's just essentially like every play is like

726
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 1: a below average running play. And their games have had

727
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:58,479
Speaker 1: an average total of forty and a half under forty

728
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 1: one and three or four the Charger offense twenty third

729
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 1: and weighted DVOA. You think of the Charger offenses, you know,

730
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 1: you've got these receivers. He got Herbert, he hasn't really

731
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: missed time or anything like that, you know, just that

732
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 1: you know, just got knocked out. So they're still twenty

733
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: third in DVOA. And then the Chiefs, I do think

734
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,399
Speaker 1: they are the right side in this game, but their

735
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 1: offensive line injuries is still concerning. You know, Simmons on

736
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: ir he was top he was twenty first out of

737
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:30,919
Speaker 1: eighty and pass blocking grade. Juwan Taylor, Morris, uh, both

738
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: of those guys. Morris is out, Taylor's questionable, Smith's questionable?

739
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 1: Is he one hundred percent? Who knows? But really it

740
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 1: comes down for me to this. Chiefs could have success offensively,

741
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: but it's probably not going to be the way they want.

742
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 1: They're trying to hit these big plays and they just

743
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: haven't been able to do it consistently. This Charger defense,

744
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 1: this is the.

745
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:50,800
Speaker 2: Game where you go back to the whole Chiefs offense.

746
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 1: Just think dunk dank, dunk, dank dunk. Six point nine

747
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: percent exposed to play right is third lowest and their

748
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 1: fourth and past defense Dvoa. They always find a even

749
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: though they're they don't get a ton of pressure, but

750
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: they're just well schemed. They're gonna sit back. The Chiefs

751
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:07,880
Speaker 1: know how to. The Chiefs know they have to go

752
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 1: up and down the field here and then the Chargers

753
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,919
Speaker 1: week has been the run, which that doesn't really matter

754
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: to me against the Chiefs. The Chiefs running backs are

755
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: averaging three point eight two yards for carry twenty sevens.

756
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 1: The checko is not helping matters really at all. So

757
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs have to get long drives and

758
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 1: the Chargers I don't know if they can score at

759
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 1: this point. So yeah, give me, give me the under

760
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 1: in Chiefs Charges. Also, this is a game. This is

761
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 1: not even like the forty one and a half that

762
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 1: we got with the Eagles, because that game was indoors.

763
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: This is in Arrowhead, outdoors, Cancas, eight degrees right, and

764
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,720
Speaker 1: it's a charter team you know, used to playing indoors.

765
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 1: Kansas City is a home favorite in the Andy Reid

766
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 1: Era that's over a decade now, seventy four thirty eight

767
00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 1: and one to the under sixty six percent eight percent

768
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: ROI this year five and.

769
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 2: Zero, eighteen and six home unders last three years ridiculous.

770
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:08,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, you said it last week with the Chiefs just

771
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 1: they've been an under team period. But this is like

772
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 1: another one of these under matches, even though on paper

773
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: you think okay, piece and quarterbacks, but I mean they

774
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 1: was it a total of forty seven The chief scored

775
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 1: like the Chiefs got like every yard possible on their

776
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 1: last three drives in that season opener, and the total

777
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 1: went over by one with the like So this is

778
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 1: now you're talking about second division game outdoors. This has

779
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 1: got underwritten all over it.

780
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I think the Chiefs are gonna win this game,

781
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 2: like twenty four to twenty seven to ten. All right.

782
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: For my total, I'm gonna go with another one of

783
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 2: our favorites and Eagles under Eagles Raiders under thirty eight

784
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 2: and a half. The Eagles offense is broken, all right.

785
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 2: It's not gonna be fixed, by the way, if you're

786
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: an Eagles fan, obviously, this season is like mirroring twenty

787
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 2: twenty three with Brian Johnson and all the offensive coordinator issues.

788
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 2: He started off hot, basically just winning a bunch of

789
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,880
Speaker 2: close games, and then the season cratered at the end.

790
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 2: I think they lost five to six gate away the

791
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 2: division got blown out by the Bucks. I think that's

792
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 2: the way this team is headed. But they lost in

793
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 2: week fifteen.

794
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 1: To a.

795
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 2: Cardinals, to a Pete Carroll team with a Gino Smith backup.

796
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 2: They lolso drew Locke in the Seahawks in week fifteen.

797
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 2: Also after that, they lost as an eleven and a

798
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 2: half point home favorite to the Cardinals in December, crowd

799
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 2: was booing, so like I thought about playing the Raiders.

800
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 2: That's eleven and a half twelve with Picket's going to

801
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,800
Speaker 2: be in there. Pickett can at least move around what

802
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 2: you need to do with this offensive line. This offensive

803
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 2: line is woo It's worse than what the Browns could

804
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,399
Speaker 2: potentially put out there this week. It is so bad.

805
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 2: They can't do anything. They can't run, they can't pass protect,

806
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,879
Speaker 2: so Gino just takes crippling sacks. Picket can at least

807
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: move around a little bit. But the Eagles are good

808
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 2: against tight ends. I don't think anyone is going to

809
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 2: get open for the Raiders. They're not going able to

810
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 2: run the ball, but they're going to play a lot

811
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 2: of zone. The Eagles cannot do anything against zone. They're

812
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 2: gonna make the Eagles move the ball on the field.

813
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,720
Speaker 2: They're incapable of doing that right now. And the Eagles

814
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,919
Speaker 2: are just going so slow. There's no creativity. This odd

815
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 2: This offense is a disaster.

816
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,479
Speaker 1: It's a Jaymen Hurts problem. It's a Jaalen Hurts problem.

817
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: Throw and through because all right, people want to blame

818
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 1: the coordinator.

819
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 2: I think the coordinator is out there. I mean the creativity,

820
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 2: the route Trees did, the lack of motion, play action

821
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 2: under center, there's things that they could do. But the

822
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 2: offensive line also you have to blame some of it.

823
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 2: But Hurts has to take a big brunt.

824
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 1: I mean, look at it this way. It came out

825
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 1: that Hurts asked for less design runs, right, so already

826
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 1: that and that's happened, right, So already you're seeing that

827
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 1: Hurts is hamstringing the coordinator because the coordinator doesn't have

828
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: this full arsenal at his disposal because Hurts doesn't want

829
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 1: to run. Okay, they're not replacing those Hurts design runs

830
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:06,319
Speaker 1: with like Barklee design runs or Bigsby design runs, are

831
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 1: you know, like they're just replacing them with passing plays.

832
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 1: And Hurts can't read defenses. So it's just like if

833
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 1: he's not scrambling as much because he's trying to get

834
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 1: through his progressions to try to prove that he could

835
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,240
Speaker 1: do it. But he's just making bad reads and throwing

836
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 1: bad balls. So it really, I think comes a lot

837
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 1: more back to Hurts than people think this time, just

838
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 1: because you could see that he's trying to do these

839
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 1: things that he can't do, and he's not doing the

840
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: things that would make this offense better. And he's trying

841
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 1: to say, like, oh, I you know, all I care

842
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: about is winning and it's on me. But bro, like

843
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 1: you're rushing, you're running, attempts are way down. This is

844
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 1: like this reminds me of Russell Wilson, Like Broncos Russell Wilson,

845
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 1: when all of a sudden he just like didn't want

846
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 1: to run the ball and he just kind of wanted

847
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 1: to prove that he could, you know, throw downfield and

848
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 1: be a pocket passer, and his career unraveled. So Hurts

849
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 1: is like dangerously close to that. It's the Eagle, So

850
00:44:58,320 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 1: they'll probably just get it right and he'll come out

851
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 1: and run like fifteen times. But I think I think

852
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 1: it's a lot more on him than the coordinator to

853
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 1: be honest.

854
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:09,320
Speaker 2: It's regardless. It's a mess. So I'm going under h

855
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:12,879
Speaker 2: under thirty eight and a half. Even with Thicket, it's

856
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 2: hard for me to see this Raiders team sustaining.

857
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I don't pick.

858
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 2: I can run around a couple like a bit and

859
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 2: then get some first downs which will help with like

860
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 2: field position in the clock instead of Gino just taking

861
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: sacks the entire game. So yeah, but this is the

862
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:33,839
Speaker 2: Eagles are just that they do no matter who they play,

863
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 2: they go like a whole half without scoring.

864
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 3: You got.

865
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,240
Speaker 1: You can't be in the modern NFL as a quarterback

866
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 1: and not be able to beat zone Like. It doesn't.

867
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 1: It's just like you see so much zone coverage like

868
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,360
Speaker 1: the like I think there was a stat that I

869
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 1: heard earlier this week, Jordan Love Sam Darnold are the

870
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 1: only two quarterbacks that have multiple touchdown passes of forty

871
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,800
Speaker 1: plus air yards. Like, it's not that kind of league anymore.

872
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 1: You're gonna get your man coverage and you could take

873
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 1: your shots. It's like if defenses no that you can't

874
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 1: read the field and they're just gonna sit back and

875
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 1: make you make reads and hurts. His bottom five and

876
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 1: yards per attempt on the zero to nine yard range,

877
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 1: Like he can't just put the ball in there and

878
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 1: give his receivers like space to keep going. Like it's

879
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 1: just it's just he's just you can't work like that.

880
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's week fifteen. Don't just fix an offense in

881
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 2: week fifteen.

882
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, like Syrian he tried to come out and take

883
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: some of that and say, yo, yeah, I spent more time.

884
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: It's like, bro, yeah I went back like Hurts literally

885
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: had the first to turnover play in history in modern Like,

886
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 1: it's ridiculous. It's almost too like I think I might

887
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 1: have to just sprinkle some on the on the Raiders'

888
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 1: money line because it's this could just be a glorious meltdown.

889
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, can he revenge game?

890
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 1: Oh my god, can't you pick? It's just so crippling though,

891
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 1: He's like, yeah, better.

892
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 2: Than what Gino is doing right now, which is all

893
00:46:57,760 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 2: he does is just take sacks. You know what?

894
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 1: The problem Pete Carroll and this Raider coaching staff is

895
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: like the David Hurts of the fucking coaches right now.

896
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 1: It's like lost the plot completely.

897
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, but yeah, like the under but they will kick

898
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 2: field goals to cover, so right, Oh, yeah, and.

899
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 1: Oh, but it's outdoors. They might miss field goals too,

900
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 1: so they get that working in your favor as well.

901
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: Jake Elliott shaky, Oh, you're talking about the Rads. Yeah,

902
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 1: the Raiders. The Raiders.

903
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 2: No, I'm saying they kicked the field goal. Shout out

904
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 2: to Pete Carroll for that. But some summer saying it's

905
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 2: because of the long snapper they cut. That'll solve all

906
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 2: your issues. Eagles cut the long snapper, but they're bringing

907
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 2: back the guy who Eliot was good with. I don't know.

908
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: The only team that could get their number one wide

909
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,239
Speaker 1: receiver going with like three straight hundred guy games and

910
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 1: lose and lose them all of them in like horrifying

911
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 1: offensive fashion, like something's like, yo, it is just bad.

912
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 1: It's almost as bad as like the Falcons. When Drake

913
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: London's out at wide receiver. It's like, oh, I have

914
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 1: like eight eight guys who can't play special teams or offense.

915
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 1: But anyway, let's move on on our totals. Eagles, Raiders

916
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 1: under thirty eight and a half, Chiefs charges under forty two.

917
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 1: See if that one ticks up. Forty forty one and

918
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 1: forty three are a lot more key than forty two

919
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 1: as a total, nothing's really worth paying extra four, But

920
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 1: just see see where that lands. All right, let's go

921
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: to our money line underdog parlay turning good weekends into

922
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 1: great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. Douck

923
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 1: you dietting red hot on. These had the Bengals last week.

924
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,360
Speaker 1: They had the game in hand for a while and

925
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 1: just puked themselves late.

926
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 2: That killer.

927
00:48:44,400 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Bengals just have I mean, geez, talk about excruciating.

928
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:49,720
Speaker 1: I mean this the whole division.

929
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:53,240
Speaker 2: Is just it's like scruciating losses for the Raiders, Ravens

930
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 2: and Bengals always always. I'm gonna go the Saints here,

931
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:02,720
Speaker 2: like here we go. They've been feisty, Shuck has looked decent.

932
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:05,760
Speaker 2: Panthers aren'tnna get any pressure. This is roade, Bryce Young.

933
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 2: I think this line is too high. Yeah, give me

934
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 2: give me the Saints at home to beat the Panthers,

935
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 2: who I think are getting a little too expensive in

936
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:22,479
Speaker 2: market for that Rams win, which I mean the Rams

937
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 2: did whatever they wanted. The Panthers scored on two fourth downs,

938
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 2: got a bunch of turnovers. I mean they gave up

939
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 2: what's eight yards per play? M hm Young is not

940
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 2: the same on the road. This defense still isn't great.

941
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 2: They're not gonna get any pressure on Shuck. So I

942
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 2: liked what I saw from Devin Neil by the way

943
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 2: last week. Yeah, yeah against a good run day. So

944
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:48,279
Speaker 2: I think it gives a little more juice because Camar is.

945
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 1: Washed, right, Yeah, he's almost watches Taystom Hill.

946
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, So.

947
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 1: I don't know.

948
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 2: I think this is more like a basically a coin

949
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 2: flip game. So I'll take the Saints.

950
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had that slight. It's like when you're when

951
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 1: you're chasing after the girl and then you finally smash

952
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 1: and then it's like posting ut. It's like Stafford after

953
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:09,360
Speaker 1: that touchdown against the fucking the Panthers is just like

954
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:11,879
Speaker 1: pick pick after you went like the after you set

955
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:14,399
Speaker 1: the street for like no, like most touchdowns without a pick.

956
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:15,319
Speaker 2: It was just like.

957
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 1: Everything was disastrous. Fans didn't really earn that that way.

958
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:21,280
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously you know they were in the right places,

959
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 1: but I could see in just a stupid kind of game,

960
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 1: uh division second second division matchup.

961
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 2: Already beat them, dominated them with chuck in Carolina.

962
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna speaking of these Ravens and Bengals

963
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 1: with excruciating losses. Somebody has to lose this game, excruciatingly.

964
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 1: So just give me the give me the points, give

965
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:44,400
Speaker 1: me the money, give me the juice. I'll take the

966
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 1: Bengals at plus one twenty four. Here the Ravens, it's

967
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 1: probably not as bad as it looks. You know, you

968
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 1: got two likely touchdowns that should have been touchdowns that

969
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 1: weren't touchdowns over the last couple of weeks. But it's

970
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 1: still not right. Like Lamar is not complete sixty percent

971
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:02,920
Speaker 1: of his passes and what is that five straight games?

972
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 1: Now he's just a wittle bit He's a lot of

973
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:11,240
Speaker 1: bit outer rhythm. The offense is very tight end centric,

974
00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:14,240
Speaker 1: which does work to you know, their advantage against the Bengals,

975
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:19,399
Speaker 1: but uh, they still sloppy turnovers. Ended up with thirty

976
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,480
Speaker 1: two to fourteen loss in that in that first meeting.

977
00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 1: Now you're going to Cincinnati, but the Ravens are still

978
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 1: six and seven, the Bengals are four and nine, so

979
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:33,919
Speaker 1: the Bengals are gonna probably be the more desperate team

980
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 1: even even still, so I could see another sloppy Ravens

981
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 1: inexplicable situation loss here, and I thought the Bengals, you know,

982
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 1: looked really good against the Bills for most of that game,

983
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,120
Speaker 1: choked it away at the end, could absolutely happen. But

984
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 1: you're facing the Ravens team that can do the same.

985
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 1: So give me the Bengals plus one to twenty four.

986
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 1: Defense has been a little better. As of weight, I

987
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:57,480
Speaker 1: don't know how it's been a little better.

988
00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:00,360
Speaker 2: So the size has been good, yeah, I mean, Turner

989
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:02,560
Speaker 2: has been good. Their rookie linebackers played a little better.

990
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 2: They've changed some things schematically. I mean you could throw

991
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 2: out last week it's down and burrow in the snow.

992
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 2: No defense as a shot, uh classic snow over. But yeah,

993
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 2: their defense has played a little bit better. So they're

994
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 2: they're they're turning off. I mean, I I don't blame

995
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 2: you for taking the Bengals as an adult until there's

996
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 2: a chance that the rings are running out of time.

997
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 2: But there's a chance that Lamar and he looked a

998
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:25,440
Speaker 2: little better in the second half last week, but he's

999
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:28,400
Speaker 2: he's done. Don't like three injuries. Off is on target rate,

1000
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:30,319
Speaker 2: his way off, his catcha ball rate, his way off.

1001
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:33,320
Speaker 2: He doesn't have the same burst. There's a chance that

1002
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 2: like it all comes together. But until we see that,

1003
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 2: I can't project that that's gonna happen. And the Raven's

1004
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:45,280
Speaker 2: defense has been good against the run, They're still okay

1005
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:48,239
Speaker 2: on that side of the ball, but they don't they

1006
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 2: don't get pressure. That might end up being their downfall.

1007
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: I really wish they would have gotten an edg rusher

1008
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 2: at the deadline. They can't get pressure at all. So

1009
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:58,439
Speaker 2: like if you can't get pressure against Burrow, he's he's

1010
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:02,799
Speaker 2: gonna pick you apart. So yeah, I think this will

1011
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 2: be like a higher scoring game that maybe it's like

1012
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 2: the last team with the ball, but until the Ravens,

1013
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 2: until the mar looks better, he's just not trustworthy. I

1014
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:15,240
Speaker 2: played the Bengals fifteen to one to win the division

1015
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:19,879
Speaker 2: this week, which is at DraftKings. I know they're four

1016
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 2: and nine, so they have to win out to get

1017
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:24,800
Speaker 2: to eight to nine, which I think might win the division.

1018
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 2: And if they do, they're gonna win the tie breakers.

1019
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 2: And then you look at the Ravens. They have six wins, right,

1020
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 2: so if they lose this, they still go to Green Bay.

1021
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:34,839
Speaker 2: They have New England at home, and then they're at

1022
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:39,280
Speaker 2: the Steelers. Brutal finish to the year and the Bengals

1023
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 2: would have swept them better division record, and the Bengals,

1024
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 2: by the way, after this, they have doing this Off

1025
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 2: the top of my head, they have the Browns, the Dolphins,

1026
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 2: and the Cardinals with three or four at home, So

1027
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 2: they win this game. I think there's a good chance

1028
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 2: they get to eight, go eight to nine. Then you

1029
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 2: have the Steelers. Steelers have seven wins or now you

1030
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 2: need the Steelers to go one in three. Steelers are

1031
00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 2: home against Miami, who's playing a lot better. They're a

1032
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:15,840
Speaker 2: fuel goal favorite. Then they're at Detroit. There'll be a

1033
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:20,359
Speaker 2: six to seven point underdog. They then have the They're

1034
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 2: at the Browns. I could easily see them losing that

1035
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 2: game in Cleveland, and then they're a home against the Ravens.

1036
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 2: Like Ravens are either going to be playing for their

1037
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 2: playoff lives or trying to ruin the Steelers season. Not

1038
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 2: an easy path. So is it likely? No, but I

1039
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 2: think it's worth some couch change at fifteen to one.

1040
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 2: And the other vet I've met I placed was the

1041
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:45,720
Speaker 2: Chiefs to make the playoffs. It's I think the Colts

1042
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 2: are dead yep, so you can throw them out and

1043
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 2: then the last playoff spot is basically gonna come down

1044
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:56,960
Speaker 2: to the Chargers and the Chiefs. The Chargers are at

1045
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 2: what what is the record right now?

1046
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 1: Seven they have win or eight wins? Let me see

1047
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 1: they have.

1048
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chargers are nine nine and four, nine and four.

1049
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:17,319
Speaker 2: Chiefs are six and seven. So what has to happen?

1050
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:20,880
Speaker 2: Chiefs have to win out number one. They got to

1051
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 2: get to ten and seven. That's their best case scenario.

1052
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 2: If they win this week against the Chargers, and I

1053
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 2: think they do, they're gonna have a good chance to

1054
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 2: get there. They host the Broncos, they play at the

1055
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 2: Titans and at the Raiders. Very easy schedule down the stretch.

1056
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 2: If they win this game, and I think they do so,

1057
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:40,840
Speaker 2: and if they do do that, if they get the

1058
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 2: ten wins and the Chargers lose this week, obviously that

1059
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 2: needs to happen, and the Chargers also lose at the Broncos,

1060
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 2: Chiefs win the tiebreaker. If the Chargers lose one of

1061
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:54,279
Speaker 2: their other two games and their other two games are

1062
00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 2: at Dallas and home against the Texans.

1063
00:55:58,000 --> 00:55:58,799
Speaker 1: Who destroyed them.

1064
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:01,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the the Texans d line against that

1065
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 2: offensive line and that Dallas. There's there's a chance that

1066
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 2: Chargers lose out yep, and the Chiefs just passed them anyway,

1067
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 2: But the Chargers go one and three and the Chiefs

1068
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:15,440
Speaker 2: go four and on in one of those games is

1069
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 2: Chargers that Chiefs this week, They're gonna win the tiebreaker

1070
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:23,880
Speaker 2: as long as one of the losses or you know that,

1071
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,239
Speaker 2: as long as the Chargers lose out the Broncos and

1072
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 2: the Frego season finale. A very interesting thing is there's

1073
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:32,879
Speaker 2: a chance that the Broncos are playing for the one

1074
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:35,520
Speaker 2: seed on the final week of the season at home

1075
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 2: against the Chargers and by the way that Broncos defense

1076
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 2: and against that Chargers offensive line on the road. But

1077
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 2: there's a chance they're playing to get the one seed.

1078
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:46,719
Speaker 2: But if they do, they let the Chiefs in and

1079
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 2: then that they would play the Chiefs if the Chiefs

1080
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:53,440
Speaker 2: win their first game. So yeah, but those are a

1081
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:56,719
Speaker 2: couple of the the long shots that I took.

1082
00:56:57,280 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to say, hey, I'm it's thinking to

1083
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 1: fan the Colts betting on the Chiefs and betting on

1084
00:57:03,080 --> 00:57:06,840
Speaker 1: somebody in the uh in the in the North that

1085
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:08,840
Speaker 1: is not the Steelers.

1086
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 2: And yeah, I think if you want about the Ravens

1087
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:13,360
Speaker 2: now you bet them to win the super Bowl, because

1088
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 2: in order for them, you can take some division. But

1089
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 2: it's like plus one fifty if the Ravens are going

1090
00:57:19,640 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 2: to win the super Bowl. I mean, to win the division,

1091
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 2: they gotta win like games at Green Bay or home

1092
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 2: against New England or at Cincy or at pitt But

1093
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 2: they're gonna have to go three and one maybe to

1094
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 2: win it. That means that Lamar has turned it on.

1095
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:38,360
Speaker 2: And if that happens and they win the division and

1096
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 2: the Ravens are in the playoffs, this with this AFC

1097
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 2: playoff field, the Ravens are going to be I don't

1098
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 2: know my probably might pick to win the bracket. And

1099
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 2: the crazy thing is that they might host the Bills.

1100
00:57:56,000 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 2: Uh it's you. You're gonna have all these teams. You're

1101
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 2: gonna have like the Jags, the Broncos, the Pats, and

1102
00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 2: then the Ravens and Bills playing each other in the

1103
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 2: first round. So Texans. Texans are dangerous as well. But

1104
00:58:12,480 --> 00:58:14,919
Speaker 2: uh yeah, that's that's how I would play.

1105
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, depending on it would get real interesting

1106
00:58:18,920 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 1: if at least one of those teams does miss, like

1107
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 1: the Chiefs or the Ravens or the Bengals. Because now

1108
00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:26,080
Speaker 1: you're dealing with like you have all these teams that

1109
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 1: are like solid teams that have flaws. But if you're not,

1110
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 1: if you don't have to go through like a Homes

1111
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:34,480
Speaker 1: and a Burrow, it's just like one or the other.

1112
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 1: And you like the Ravens are choking away games if

1113
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 1: they even get in. It's like it might be the

1114
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 1: Bills and just everyone else and that that could get

1115
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 1: this I know, that's what I'm saying. It gets so

1116
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 1: it's yeah, it's I think it's like.

1117
00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 2: The Homes and Lamar and Burrow aren't in there. Alan,

1118
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 2: you gotta get it done this year.

1119
00:58:56,160 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I mean, they lost to the Pats and

1120
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 1: they I mean, but they they beat them. They beat

1121
00:59:04,680 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 1: the tail off the Broncos in the playoffs last year.

1122
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 1: I think that game would be closer this year, and

1123
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 1: it would It'll probably be in Denver, Yeah, Denver, and

1124
00:59:12,600 --> 00:59:14,880
Speaker 1: then somebody might have to somebody might have to go

1125
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:18,360
Speaker 1: to Jacksonville in the like the you know, just kind

1126
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 1: of that that could be weird too. That could Jacksonville

1127
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 1: could steal a game if they can what are they

1128
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 1: in the third seed right now? Third or four?

1129
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:27,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the Jacks can run on the Bills like that.

1130
00:59:27,640 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's wide open. Yeah.

1131
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 2: Then c is now what the NFC used to be,

1132
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:35,520
Speaker 2: and the NFC now is like there's a chance to

1133
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 2: the Bears win eleven games and don't make the playoffs.

1134
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 2: That's what I'm worried about. So, uh, the NFC is

1135
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:46,439
Speaker 2: loaded this year. But yeah, all right, we got any

1136
00:59:46,480 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 2: time touchdowns?

1137
00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:51,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get it. Oh so let me give the

1138
00:59:51,160 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 1: odds for the the money line underdog. So you got

1139
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 1: Saints at plus one thirty and Bengals at plus one

1140
00:59:56,520 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 1: twenty four, So that is just over four to one

1141
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 1: if you parlay those two together. Now it's time for

1142
01:00:01,640 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 1: any time touchdown parlay, presented by DraftKings. All Right, I've

1143
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 1: been hot on these yeah, last few weeks.

1144
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 2: You can't get you two together.

1145
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, you started the year hot. I mean I take

1146
01:00:12,160 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 1: some of the bling for that. Sometimes I kind of

1147
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 1: give you a little bit of a little bit of

1148
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 1: a wien and hasn't worked out. But you gotta go

1149
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:20,959
Speaker 1: to when this week where you're going.

1150
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:23,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is my own one. Somebody I just don't

1151
01:00:23,960 --> 01:00:27,080
Speaker 2: have any feel but I'm going with Jake Ferguson against

1152
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:30,480
Speaker 2: the Vikings, who struggle against tight ends Ferguson, and there's

1153
01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:34,920
Speaker 2: a chance Lamb doesn't play. Ferguson six touchdowns on eleven

1154
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:37,560
Speaker 2: red zone targets in the first eight games over the

1155
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 2: first five. Over the last five games, he has almost

1156
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:42,440
Speaker 2: the same amount of red zone targets with ten and

1157
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 2: he only has one touchdown. I think he's a little

1158
01:00:45,640 --> 01:00:49,560
Speaker 2: overdue here in a good matchup. So yeah, give me

1159
01:00:50,040 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 2: Jake Ferguson.

1160
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:55,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, teams really use their tight ends against

1161
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 1: the Vikings. I think it's part way to do with

1162
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:58,360
Speaker 1: the fact that they play a ton of zone, but

1163
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 1: they also blit, so it's yeah, teams just like to

1164
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 1: have more tight ends on the field. So like maybe

1165
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:07,360
Speaker 1: even one a hedge with like scooon Maker or span

1166
01:01:07,480 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 1: Ford or somebody like that, they'll be super long shots.

1167
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:11,960
Speaker 1: But yeah, teams just play more tight ends against the

1168
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:14,680
Speaker 1: Vikes two but they have been very vulnerable, So I

1169
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 1: like that. I have Ferguson with the second most expected

1170
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:20,800
Speaker 1: touchdowns just on the year among tight ends. I'm gonna

1171
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:23,040
Speaker 1: go with Isaiah Likely. I think you've done with him

1172
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:25,440
Speaker 1: on this pod before. He's plus two forty five up

1173
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 1: against Cincinnati. What do we know about Cincinnati terrible against

1174
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 1: tight ends. They've given up fifteen touchdowns to tight ends.

1175
01:01:31,680 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 1: That's the most in the league by six over second place.

1176
01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:39,960
Speaker 1: We're in. We've played fourteen weeks. They we went up

1177
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:42,400
Speaker 1: fifteen touchdowns to tight ends. They should have given up

1178
01:01:43,560 --> 01:01:47,880
Speaker 1: another one or two, but likely should have had another

1179
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 1: one or two. Really two last two weeks got a

1180
01:01:50,960 --> 01:01:53,480
Speaker 1: touchdown fumbled out of the end zone, and then one

1181
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:56,160
Speaker 1: overturn that could have easily been called a touchdown. So

1182
01:01:56,280 --> 01:02:00,120
Speaker 1: I think he is a guy that's probably we I

1183
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:02,920
Speaker 1: don't want to say do, but he's just been unlucky.

1184
01:02:03,200 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 1: And I think it's going to be Andrews and Likely

1185
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:08,400
Speaker 1: are going to be front and center on the game plan.

1186
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:10,480
Speaker 1: And Andrew's been trending down a little bit. I know

1187
01:02:10,520 --> 01:02:14,120
Speaker 1: we had that that rushing score, but I think late

1188
01:02:14,200 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 1: in the year, I want to go with the guy

1189
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 1: and Likely who is a little bit more spry here.

1190
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 1: So give me Likely at plus two forty five. The

1191
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 1: Bengals twenty ninths int DVOA against tight ends. Surprise, they're

1192
01:02:25,600 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 1: not dead last honestly, but partab way likely and Ferguson

1193
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:32,240
Speaker 1: you get plus six sixty. So that was our anytime

1194
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: touchdown parlay presented by Draftings. All right, it's any games

1195
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 1: we didn't touch on that Thursday night game we got game.

1196
01:02:42,080 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the line's too high. I mean

1197
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 2: the Baker Mayfields in Week seven has been the second

1198
01:02:45,200 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 2: worst quarterback in the NFL. He's been dreadful. Buka has

1199
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:51,760
Speaker 2: also been bad. Now, I mean the Bucks were covering

1200
01:02:51,880 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 2: up a bad team early in the year when Baker

1201
01:02:54,080 --> 01:02:55,440
Speaker 2: was playing at an MVP level and they had to

1202
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 2: come back and win every game in the final minute.

1203
01:02:58,360 --> 01:02:59,680
Speaker 2: This is a bad football team right now.

1204
01:02:59,800 --> 01:03:00,920
Speaker 1: But I mean the.

1205
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:02,880
Speaker 2: Falcons aren't great. Drake London's not gonna go and it

1206
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 2: does look like the box like is this the bottom

1207
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:05,920
Speaker 2: of the market of the Bucks. They haven't covered five

1208
01:03:05,960 --> 01:03:10,320
Speaker 2: straight and the injuries might be breaking the way of Tampa.

1209
01:03:10,440 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 2: Like Mike Evans, it looks like he's a go McMillan

1210
01:03:12,640 --> 01:03:15,080
Speaker 2: off the I R worse. It looks like is gonna

1211
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 2: go odd and it doesn't Tyke Smith know Dennis no.

1212
01:03:19,960 --> 01:03:23,240
Speaker 2: But then the Falcons like his pits gonna miss.

1213
01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 3: And that's basically all who their offense breaks without. That's

1214
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 3: all who Cousins throws to a field yeah, two targets

1215
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:35,040
Speaker 3: and Cousins four starts.

1216
01:03:35,160 --> 01:03:38,760
Speaker 2: The next is Mooney with sixteen and the only time

1217
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:41,080
Speaker 2: Mooney catches it is when he goes out of bounds first.

1218
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 2: And then the Falcons have some defensive injuries, so I

1219
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:46,120
Speaker 2: think the line is a little too high. I don't

1220
01:03:46,120 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 2: think there's that much separating these teams, but it looks

1221
01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 2: like the injuries there might be breaking the Bucks lay

1222
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:53,480
Speaker 2: and this might be the bottom of the market on

1223
01:03:53,560 --> 01:03:56,600
Speaker 2: the box, like maybe with better health their offense starts.

1224
01:03:57,000 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 2: There's a little bounce here. Lean Falcons but hate Thursday

1225
01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 2: night football, not running, not running to bet it. But

1226
01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:07,680
Speaker 2: I might play the Falcons small but no strong feel

1227
01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:10,120
Speaker 2: h jags jet.

1228
01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 1: I'll go say with the Thursday it kind of feels

1229
01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:14,440
Speaker 1: like the Bucks are gearing up for this one. You know,

1230
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:17,760
Speaker 1: I mean to take to get Evans and McMillan off

1231
01:04:17,800 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 1: the off the iron. A short week kind of tells

1232
01:04:20,760 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 1: me that, Okay, you know, we haven't been playing great,

1233
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:25,280
Speaker 1: but if we you know, this is this is a

1234
01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:29,360
Speaker 1: division game, they might they might just beat the doors

1235
01:04:29,360 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 1: off the Falcons. I agree. I think the line is

1236
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:34,240
Speaker 1: probably a little over over inflating the Bucks, but just

1237
01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:37,880
Speaker 1: for a spot perspective, this game is actually broken without.

1238
01:04:38,800 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 2: For super important for the Bucks. So that would make sense. Yeah,

1239
01:04:42,920 --> 01:04:50,320
Speaker 2: because if if they win this game, then so if

1240
01:04:50,360 --> 01:04:54,200
Speaker 2: they beat the Falcons, they clinched the tiebreaker against the Panthers.

1241
01:04:54,240 --> 01:04:57,760
Speaker 2: If they split, so they play two games against each

1242
01:04:57,800 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 2: other which will decide the division, and the most likely

1243
01:05:00,960 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 2: outcome is they split, and in that case, if the

1244
01:05:04,640 --> 01:05:07,000
Speaker 2: Bucks win Tomorrow night, they have the tiebreaker. But if

1245
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:12,880
Speaker 2: the Bucks lose, the Panthers get the tiebreaker if they

1246
01:05:12,960 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 2: beat the Saints and split, So that's huge. It is

1247
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:18,120
Speaker 2: not neither of these teams are getting a wild card.

1248
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:20,600
Speaker 2: That's basically just going to come down to the division.

1249
01:05:21,200 --> 01:05:23,760
Speaker 2: And then if these two teams split, it might come

1250
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:27,600
Speaker 2: down to the results this week. And if the Bucks win,

1251
01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:29,760
Speaker 2: all they gotta do is win on Thursday night, or

1252
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:33,200
Speaker 2: if the Panthers lose, they'll have the tiebreaker. So it

1253
01:05:33,320 --> 01:05:37,120
Speaker 2: is a super important game. Jags Jets, I don't. I

1254
01:05:37,160 --> 01:05:39,800
Speaker 2: mean the Jags are thirteen point favorites. We don't even

1255
01:05:39,800 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 2: know it's going to be the quarterback for the Jets.

1256
01:05:42,920 --> 01:05:47,200
Speaker 2: No idea, Lions Rams, I think the line is about right.

1257
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:49,680
Speaker 2: I wanted to bet the Rams, But like I just

1258
01:05:49,760 --> 01:05:53,040
Speaker 2: think the Lions, the Rams are going to shred their man,

1259
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:56,280
Speaker 2: shred their blitz. They have more injuries in the secondary.

1260
01:05:56,640 --> 01:05:59,400
Speaker 2: I think the Rams can get interior pressure or go

1261
01:05:59,520 --> 01:06:04,360
Speaker 2: on GoF But at six, now it's good. I can't

1262
01:06:04,440 --> 01:06:06,960
Speaker 2: lay six. Just from a numbers perspective, should be an

1263
01:06:07,040 --> 01:06:07,720
Speaker 2: entertaining game.

1264
01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:10,640
Speaker 1: Would you take lines at above six because it might

1265
01:06:10,680 --> 01:06:11,520
Speaker 1: be trend in that direction.

1266
01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 2: Possibly I'd lean that way at seven, yeah, but I

1267
01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:22,520
Speaker 2: don't think we would ever get that. And then there's

1268
01:06:22,560 --> 01:06:24,640
Speaker 2: gonna be it's like degenerate Dan Campbell. He's gonna have

1269
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:27,160
Speaker 2: a game where he's gonna get a bunch of four

1270
01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:28,960
Speaker 2: downs and then the lines would like win this game

1271
01:06:29,120 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 2: or they don't, and then they get blown out. I

1272
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 2: don't think they're gonna get many stops. Titans forty nine ers,

1273
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 2: I'm pretty much on market thirteen. It's actually that's a lot.

1274
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:43,080
Speaker 2: I make it like twelve, So I think it's a

1275
01:06:43,080 --> 01:06:49,960
Speaker 2: little high at thirteen, but no interest. I don't want

1276
01:06:50,000 --> 01:06:51,920
Speaker 2: to lay thirty, like I would not lay thirteen with

1277
01:06:51,960 --> 01:06:54,440
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers who can't get pressure on defense,

1278
01:06:54,640 --> 01:07:00,160
Speaker 2: that's just not a recipe for success. And then the

1279
01:07:00,280 --> 01:07:06,680
Speaker 2: last one is the Seahawks Colts look edline was three

1280
01:07:06,720 --> 01:07:12,240
Speaker 2: and a half. We're up to we are touching fourteen. Now,

1281
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:14,240
Speaker 2: obviously you got to upgrade the Seahawks for last week.

1282
01:07:14,280 --> 01:07:17,400
Speaker 2: He downgrade the Colts again and they lose Daniel Jones.

1283
01:07:18,440 --> 01:07:21,720
Speaker 2: Riley Leonard also got banged up. Also, their defense is

1284
01:07:21,760 --> 01:07:24,000
Speaker 2: a mess because you have I don't think Squard is

1285
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:25,600
Speaker 2: gonna play Ward probably done for the year.

1286
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:27,720
Speaker 1: Oh he's done, he's out. I think he went on

1287
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:29,120
Speaker 1: ir Yeah.

1288
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:32,160
Speaker 2: So like now your secondary, which is going to be

1289
01:07:32,200 --> 01:07:34,360
Speaker 2: a strength, and then you don't have Devories Buckner. You're

1290
01:07:34,440 --> 01:07:38,120
Speaker 2: back to like bad Colts defense. Their right right tackle

1291
01:07:38,720 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 2: Brydon Smith ye concussion. So Riley Leonard like I would

1292
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:46,720
Speaker 2: have if Riley Leonard was healthy, like at fourteen, if

1293
01:07:46,760 --> 01:07:49,840
Speaker 2: the defense was in decent shape. Like the Seahawks offense

1294
01:07:49,880 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 2: is kind of trending down if you dig in it.

1295
01:07:51,320 --> 01:07:53,640
Speaker 2: They keep scoring defensive and special teams touchdowns every week,

1296
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:56,480
Speaker 2: but defenses are kind of adjusted to the Seahawks offense.

1297
01:07:57,120 --> 01:08:02,360
Speaker 2: Darnoald Resmond great over the past month. So like at fourteen,

1298
01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:05,520
Speaker 2: I think this is a bit too high, Like you

1299
01:08:05,560 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 2: can just Leonard and Taylor and just you do like

1300
01:08:08,680 --> 01:08:11,919
Speaker 2: read option and just run the balls short in the game.

1301
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:15,840
Speaker 2: Seahawks play the Rams on Thursday night like a huge game.

1302
01:08:15,920 --> 01:08:18,320
Speaker 2: I'm sure they're not too interested in like running this up.

1303
01:08:19,400 --> 01:08:22,040
Speaker 2: But Leonard's not healthy, and you might be I think

1304
01:08:22,160 --> 01:08:24,400
Speaker 2: Leonard's gonna start. I don't know all this. I really

1305
01:08:24,439 --> 01:08:26,800
Speaker 2: don't know what is going on, all this hoopla a ash.

1306
01:08:26,800 --> 01:08:29,519
Speaker 2: Philip Rivers is he going to start? He's forty five,

1307
01:08:29,560 --> 01:08:31,600
Speaker 2: he's a grand far. He hasn't played in five years, So, like,

1308
01:08:32,200 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 2: how do you project what that is? I don't even

1309
01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:37,439
Speaker 2: know how to come up with a number for what

1310
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:42,160
Speaker 2: the downgrade from Riley Leonard to Philip Rivers is. How

1311
01:08:42,200 --> 01:08:43,920
Speaker 2: do you I don't I wouldn't even know where to start.

1312
01:08:44,320 --> 01:08:46,040
Speaker 1: One guy can One guy can run a little bit.

1313
01:08:46,080 --> 01:08:49,240
Speaker 1: The other guy can't move. They're both they're both for

1314
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:52,000
Speaker 1: attempt is probably both like sub six at this point.

1315
01:08:52,040 --> 01:08:53,680
Speaker 1: I mean you can't, you can't. I mean Rivers was

1316
01:08:53,760 --> 01:08:56,680
Speaker 1: solid efficiency wise in terms of like that was five

1317
01:08:56,800 --> 01:08:57,800
Speaker 1: years ago. He can't move.

1318
01:08:58,280 --> 01:09:01,960
Speaker 2: He's gonna throw to Warren like thirty times.

1319
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, what I think too. But Seahawks are good. The

1320
01:09:05,439 --> 01:09:09,479
Speaker 1: Seawks defense is not like it's Yeah, I can't imagine

1321
01:09:09,479 --> 01:09:11,360
Speaker 1: they would start fillt Rivers on like this short of

1322
01:09:11,400 --> 01:09:13,360
Speaker 1: a notice, unless unless they don't.

1323
01:09:13,080 --> 01:09:16,720
Speaker 2: Know at least like I can't.

1324
01:09:18,479 --> 01:09:21,120
Speaker 1: He was thrown like horrible picks, but he was thirty

1325
01:09:21,200 --> 01:09:24,759
Speaker 1: five and twenty five and the See and the Seahawks

1326
01:09:24,760 --> 01:09:27,000
Speaker 1: all they do is blow the doors off of teams.

1327
01:09:28,080 --> 01:09:28,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could.

1328
01:09:28,880 --> 01:09:30,720
Speaker 1: I could probably would probably if it was Rivers, I

1329
01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:34,439
Speaker 1: would probably just weigh the the two touchdowns. Honestly, Leonard

1330
01:09:34,439 --> 01:09:37,120
Speaker 1: does give them a little bit of just feistiness, I think,

1331
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:39,439
Speaker 1: but he's also the fact that they signed Rivers and

1332
01:09:39,439 --> 01:09:42,120
Speaker 1: are entertaining starting him tells me Leonard hasn't been great

1333
01:09:42,160 --> 01:09:45,120
Speaker 1: in practice either, that he's could be hurt. So yeah,

1334
01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:46,920
Speaker 1: it's a tough I mean, I think the Coast are

1335
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:49,560
Speaker 1: just it's like some of these veteran coaches, you know,

1336
01:09:49,640 --> 01:09:51,840
Speaker 1: like this is like the coach best chance in a while, right,

1337
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:55,040
Speaker 1: So it's like they're panicking. It's like they were sitting

1338
01:09:56,080 --> 01:09:57,080
Speaker 1: toast of the town.

1339
01:09:57,240 --> 01:10:02,920
Speaker 2: And now they went all in on this year and

1340
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:06,000
Speaker 2: next with Daniel Jones, who now has a torn achilles

1341
01:10:06,720 --> 01:10:10,400
Speaker 2: they traded and now you have Ward who's done and

1342
01:10:10,439 --> 01:10:12,200
Speaker 2: who knows his career is done.

1343
01:10:13,640 --> 01:10:16,680
Speaker 1: Daughter too, so like that, I mean it's he might

1344
01:10:16,800 --> 01:10:18,679
Speaker 1: just he's football, so I don't.

1345
01:10:18,960 --> 01:10:20,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's not been right mentally, he said, like this

1346
01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:23,200
Speaker 2: is not in the right headspace, so he might, like

1347
01:10:23,360 --> 01:10:26,200
Speaker 2: just for physical and emotional reasons, might just step away.

1348
01:10:26,920 --> 01:10:29,559
Speaker 2: You traded your first round picks for Gardner, who then

1349
01:10:29,680 --> 01:10:32,240
Speaker 2: got hurt. You don't have your first round picks now

1350
01:10:32,800 --> 01:10:36,200
Speaker 2: you're locked in with a hurt Jones. Richardson is a bust.

1351
01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:39,240
Speaker 2: And then from you were eight and two when everything

1352
01:10:39,280 --> 01:10:44,160
Speaker 2: looks so promising in a month, it is dark dark.

1353
01:10:44,280 --> 01:10:45,559
Speaker 2: At least you have the Hoosiers.

1354
01:10:46,520 --> 01:10:49,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, so oh yeah, the Pacers are doing terribly too.

1355
01:10:51,160 --> 01:10:52,439
Speaker 2: This year. Right, oh my god.

1356
01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, that Haliburton injury so it's under a twenty three.

1357
01:10:58,200 --> 01:11:04,080
Speaker 2: It's messy. So uh I hope Rivers starts so because

1358
01:11:04,080 --> 01:11:06,559
Speaker 2: it would be fucking it would be hilarious to watch.

1359
01:11:06,800 --> 01:11:09,320
Speaker 1: Now on my bingo card, Philip Rivers aged forty five

1360
01:11:10,160 --> 01:11:14,240
Speaker 1: like in twenty twenty five, but insane. It might happen.

1361
01:11:14,360 --> 01:11:15,559
Speaker 1: There's props for him up already.

1362
01:11:15,920 --> 01:11:18,160
Speaker 2: Crazy enough people met him comeback Player of the Year

1363
01:11:18,240 --> 01:11:19,000
Speaker 2: like right away.

1364
01:11:19,120 --> 01:11:20,880
Speaker 1: At eleven to one, which is horrible value he's got

1365
01:11:20,920 --> 01:11:23,000
Speaker 1: Like there was twenty five when it opened up. Okay,

1366
01:11:23,000 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 1: I saw it at eleven to one.

1367
01:11:23,920 --> 01:11:25,920
Speaker 2: I was like, what the hell it got that? Like, immediately,

1368
01:11:26,840 --> 01:11:28,640
Speaker 2: who's the comeback player of your favorite right now?

1369
01:11:29,080 --> 01:11:29,320
Speaker 1: Dak?

1370
01:11:29,520 --> 01:11:30,840
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think he was out for the year

1371
01:11:30,920 --> 01:11:32,080
Speaker 2: last year. That's having a good year.

1372
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:35,880
Speaker 1: Well, Kaffrey, Oh, Dak is actually number two? Wow? And

1373
01:11:35,960 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 1: then part oh yeah, yeah that's right, Yeah, yeah, yeah,

1374
01:11:41,080 --> 01:11:43,960
Speaker 1: level it's McCaffrey and Dak. And I feel like, depending

1375
01:11:44,000 --> 01:11:47,200
Speaker 1: on how the Cowboys do down to stretch, Dak Dak

1376
01:11:47,280 --> 01:11:48,280
Speaker 1: probably the value.

1377
01:11:48,320 --> 01:11:50,840
Speaker 2: For Rivers to make it. I mean, they'd have to

1378
01:11:50,920 --> 01:11:53,400
Speaker 2: make the playoffs with Rivers, like that's not happening.

1379
01:11:54,000 --> 01:11:59,400
Speaker 1: And also dark Horse if he keeps scoring touchdowns Christian Watson,

1380
01:11:59,439 --> 01:12:01,200
Speaker 1: I mean, if he just it's like one or two

1381
01:12:01,240 --> 01:12:03,760
Speaker 1: touchdowns every single game and the package just finished, Like,

1382
01:12:03,800 --> 01:12:06,120
Speaker 1: what are like with three losses? I wonder if they

1383
01:12:06,200 --> 01:12:08,519
Speaker 1: just give it to him McCaffrey slows down, probably they'll

1384
01:12:08,520 --> 01:12:09,479
Speaker 1: probably just give it to McCaffrey.

1385
01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:11,559
Speaker 2: Though, all right, we got a soft rambling. We got

1386
01:12:11,600 --> 01:12:14,679
Speaker 2: some good quarterbacks people for you this week, So yeah,

1387
01:12:14,880 --> 01:12:16,639
Speaker 2: it's better than last dak last week was the worst

1388
01:12:16,920 --> 01:12:18,320
Speaker 2: we had on four and too, but it was the

1389
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:19,400
Speaker 2: worst crop.

1390
01:12:21,800 --> 01:12:24,519
Speaker 1: We gotta hit our we gotta hit our our touchdown part.

1391
01:12:24,600 --> 01:12:25,720
Speaker 1: I think the one time we hit it it was

1392
01:12:25,760 --> 01:12:28,080
Speaker 1: like what was it? Genty and hunt, like the most boring,

1393
01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:34,000
Speaker 1: boring one. But yeah, that's that is gonna do it.

1394
01:12:34,080 --> 01:12:37,800
Speaker 1: For our week fifteen UH Action Network podcast. You can

1395
01:12:37,880 --> 01:12:42,080
Speaker 1: find Stuck on BBOC and the Favorites podcast. I'm on

1396
01:12:42,160 --> 01:12:44,799
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Flex. Be sure to check out at Playbook

1397
01:12:44,840 --> 01:12:48,240
Speaker 1: on Twitter. It will build you bet slips. Stuck is

1398
01:12:48,280 --> 01:12:51,160
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Stucky too, Twitter X, whatever you call it.

1399
01:12:51,280 --> 01:12:53,040
Speaker 1: I'm at Chris Raybon. We're at those same handles on

1400
01:12:53,120 --> 01:12:56,200
Speaker 1: the Free or Winning Action at Network app until week sixteen,

1401
01:12:56,320 --> 01:13:16,960
Speaker 1: fiftish money logo. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1402
01:13:17,400 --> 01:13:20,160
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1403
01:13:20,520 --> 01:13:23,120
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1404
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