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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: We're keeping the tires rolling in this episode as we

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Speaker 1: preview the good Year Cotton Bowl. We're gonna give you

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Speaker 1: our best bets and our player props for winning the

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Speaker 1: tenn seed Miami Hurricanes take on the two seats and

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Speaker 1: defending national champions, the Ohio State buck Guys in Jerry

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Speaker 1: World on New Year's Eve. I'm yourro Seth Wilcock, joined

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Speaker 1: by Scott Big Time Bogman Boggs. How are you and

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Speaker 1: what is your level of excitement for this first matchup

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Speaker 1: of the CFP Quarterfinals.

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Speaker 2: I think this is going to be a pretty good game.

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a grinding game, a little bit of a low scoring game.

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Speaker 2: We'll get into that in a little bit, but this

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Speaker 2: Miami Ohio State game is going to be a lot

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Speaker 2: of fun. I'm I'm glad this kind of gets the

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Speaker 2: solo as well. Obviously, I have a lot of memories.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, you know, I don't know if you

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Speaker 2: remember when these teams played in the national title game.

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Speaker 2: Make me feel like an old man here. I but

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Speaker 2: controversial ending, great game and I think We're in for

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Speaker 2: a lot, maybe a tighter game than people expect.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well I'm looking forward. When was that one to two?

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Speaker 1: Is that something? Okay? All right, yeah, so I think

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Speaker 1: it was about six, So I do not remember that.

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Speaker 1: I do remember my first Super Bowl around that time.

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Speaker 1: I think it was Eagles Patriots. I remember watching that

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, but no, do not remember the National Championship game.

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Speaker 1: But excited to remember this one, dude, because it is

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Speaker 1: going to be electric and I think this gives Ohio

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Speaker 1: State a really good first test in the playoff, more

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Speaker 1: compared to what they you know, more so than what

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Speaker 1: they had last season right in the CFP on their

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Speaker 1: really walk to the national title game. So looking forward

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Speaker 1: to that. And before we jump in, shout to all

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Speaker 1: the wonderful men and women who are riding with us

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Speaker 1: as we get to the next round of the College

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Speaker 1: Football Playoff. Please do us a quick favor give this

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Speaker 1: video a thumbs up if you enjoyed this type of content.

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Speaker 1: Also make sure you subscribe to the channel if you're new,

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Speaker 1: so you don't miss a moment of college football or

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Speaker 1: NFL betting covers. The rest of the way Bogs Joey P.

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Speaker 1: Erickson the gang staying up today over there in the

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Speaker 1: professional streets as well, and Bucks let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: jump into this game. It's gonna be kicking off on Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: seven thirty pm Eastern Time. As far as the line

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Speaker 1: is concerned, most books have not come off that nine

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Speaker 1: and a half point line that we saw previously. The

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Speaker 1: total also remains unchanged at forty two and a half points. Miami,

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Speaker 1: they're coming off that huge win at Kyle Field in

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Speaker 1: round one to move to eleven and two straight up

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Speaker 1: on the season, just eight and five ats. Though they

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Speaker 1: definitely got good news on the injury front getting a

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Speaker 1: lot of players back, it seems like they're only gonna

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Speaker 1: be missing two players in the defense is too deep.

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Speaker 1: Ohio State they're coming off their first loss of the

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Speaker 1: season before the bye week thirteen to ten in the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten Championship game, defeated against Indiana, and that drops

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Speaker 1: them to just twelve and one straight up. But ten

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Speaker 1: two and one ats very profitable for betters and they

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Speaker 1: will have everyone up in this game. To our knowledge

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Speaker 1: as well BP projections, right now, we have Ohio State

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Speaker 1: favored by nearly nine points. As far as the public,

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Speaker 1: we have sixty one percent of tickets on Miami, fifty

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Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash is on Ohio State, though,

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Speaker 1: and sixty percent of tickets and sixty three percent of

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Speaker 1: the cash is on the over. So, Bogs, where are

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Speaker 1: you going in this game?

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Speaker 2: I like the under in this game. Forty two and

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Speaker 2: a half is a number that's a low total, and

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Speaker 2: I understand that, but I'm telling you, the deeper I

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Speaker 2: look into this game, the more I like the under

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Speaker 2: because I feel like the Miami strategy has to be

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Speaker 2: get into third and manageable. You do not want to

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Speaker 2: put Carson Beck in a bad spot, right, and this

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Speaker 2: is what they did against anm They ran the ball

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Speaker 2: a lot, specifically in the second half. They made those

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Speaker 2: throws easier for Carson Beck, and I think that's what

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Speaker 2: you're going to do. Their defensive strategy for Miami against

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Speaker 2: Ohio State should be to force Saying into mistakes, which

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Speaker 2: is a tall task, but I don't think it's impossible

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Speaker 2: Saying it graded eighty six of one hundred and five

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Speaker 2: greated quarterbacks in time to throw, which means he holds

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Speaker 2: onto the ball a long time. The Miami defensive line

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Speaker 2: ate up An m and Marcel Reid obviously ended up

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Speaker 2: throwing two picks in that game, but Saying has seemed

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Speaker 2: fairly unflappable. Even though he hasn't gotten the ball out quickly,

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Speaker 2: the line seems to keep him clean and he is

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Speaker 2: ready with the trigger when pressured. He is the twenty

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Speaker 2: sixth lowest of those same one hundred and five quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: in PFF's pressure to sack percentage, which means he when

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Speaker 2: he gets pressured, he's not turning that into sacks himself.

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Speaker 2: So I think in that that's the difference. Therein lies

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Speaker 2: the difference between what was going on between A and

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Speaker 2: M and their offense against this Miami defense, and how

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Speaker 2: Julian San will handle this pressure from Ohio State. So

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Speaker 2: I think in that regard, Saying probably has the upper hand.

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Speaker 2: I think in the end this will be a tough

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Speaker 2: game for him, but Carson Beck is going to have

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Speaker 2: to make some big plays in Ohio State's defense. Just

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Speaker 2: it's been really tough to move the ball against. I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna stick with the under here. And also the pacing

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Speaker 2: Miami is one hundred and twenty eighth in pace, right,

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Speaker 2: so oh slow in pace. Ohio State was dead last

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Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty six in pace this season. So

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Speaker 2: I think they're both going to hold onto the ball

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Speaker 2: as much as they possibly can. That's what you want

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Speaker 2: if you're Miami. You want to run down that defense.

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Speaker 2: You want to wear them out so you can get

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Speaker 2: those explosive plays that you need to rely on that

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Speaker 2: Ohio State hasn't been giving up, right. I think Ohio State,

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Speaker 2: what we know about them is bo Jackson has been great,

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Speaker 2: specifically in the second half here, and that if and

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Speaker 2: everybody knows this, if you don't put pressure on saying

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Speaker 2: he is going to make a big play in this game.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna throw downfield to take with Jeremiah Smith. I

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Speaker 2: think Claire Max Claire is going to be a decent

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Speaker 2: target in this game as well. So I think there's

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Speaker 2: outs for Ohio State. There's less outs, fewer outs for Miami.

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Speaker 2: I think their game strategy it almost has to be

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Speaker 2: like that doctor Strange when he's holding up one finger,

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Speaker 2: you know. I think I think there's a certain script

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Speaker 2: that gets them there. But I think they're going to

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Speaker 2: follow that script as closely as they possibly can, which

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Speaker 2: means holding on the ball, trying to grind out drives,

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Speaker 2: trying to get Carson Beck into third and shorts, so

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Speaker 2: that could make their offense predictable. But I like Ohio

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Speaker 2: State to win this game. But the under is my

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Speaker 2: play here under forty two.

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Speaker 1: And a half the end game, as you would ask

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Speaker 1: Scott vogmc, so I like that play. I also lean

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Speaker 1: towards this under as well. But for me, my favorite

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Speaker 1: bet in this one. You know me bugs, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: alt this down minus six and a half. I'm getting

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Speaker 1: this at minus one sixty seven right now. Keep in

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Speaker 1: mind our friends over at hard Rock they're dropping boost

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Speaker 1: every single day, especially for the college football playoffs, so

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Speaker 1: I expect to be able to get a boost where

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Speaker 1: I can probably not get this back to even money

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Speaker 1: or minus one ten, but probably around minus one thirty

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Speaker 1: something around there. So I don't mind paying that amount

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Speaker 1: of juice for this and Ohio State to me man, like,

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Speaker 1: I think the difference in this game comes down to

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Speaker 1: OSU can limit big plays. They do it better than

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Speaker 1: any other team in the country. They also hold opposing

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Speaker 1: teams to the lowest red zone percentage in the country

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Speaker 1: as well, and like I know, it was windy as

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Speaker 1: heck there last week from Miami, right but I still think,

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Speaker 1: like they only put up ten points against a pretty

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Speaker 1: average A and M defense, and you don't even have

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Speaker 1: a couple of those field goals go in. Okay, Like

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Speaker 1: it's still not that many points. And like I also

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Speaker 1: worry for Miami. Like Mario Christobal, he just excuses these

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Speaker 1: mistakes of this team makes. There are one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty fifth in penalties per game. They also have allowed

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Speaker 1: the twelfth most explosive plays per game. So if Saying

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Speaker 1: does get time, look for him to carve him up.

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Speaker 1: Like Carnal Tait, this guy. If I can bet player

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Speaker 1: props here in Pennsylvania, Carnal Tate anytime touchdown. I would

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Speaker 1: love to go with that. And as you mentioned, Joe

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Speaker 1: Bo Jackson, this guy continues to get better and better

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Speaker 1: as the season goes along. Miami's offense to me, like

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Speaker 1: I love this offense, you know my love for Alexai Tony,

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Speaker 1: Like I'm trying to collect all the twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 1: rookie picks to go after this guy in future fantasy

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Speaker 1: football leagues. But like at the same time, like this offense,

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Speaker 1: it's really what Tony. It's Mark Fletcher. If they can

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Speaker 1: get him going and then like a few deep shots

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Speaker 1: a game. To CJ. Daniels, I just think, like with

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Speaker 1: Ohio State's defense, having those run stuffers in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the line, are Belle Reese working off the edge

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Speaker 1: playing that middle linebacker position as well, I think that

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Speaker 1: can counter that a little bit. Plus, you got Caleb

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Speaker 1: Downs playing safety. If I'm Miami, I just make sure

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Speaker 1: Caleb Downs follows everywhere that Tony goes on the field,

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Speaker 1: whether that's you know, him playing quarterback or him taking

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Speaker 1: some of these pop passes or jet sweeps. I just

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Speaker 1: think that he's gonna be all over Tony. I just

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Speaker 1: think it's too predictable an offense for Miami, So I

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Speaker 1: like Ohio State. Nine and a half is a big

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Speaker 1: number for me, especially in a college football playoff game.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna go ahead, drink a little juice here, bugs,

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Speaker 1: and get the momoses flowing early. At six and a

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Speaker 1: half points on New Year's.

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Speaker 2: Eve, what do you think about a perhaps a team

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Speaker 2: total under on Miami If that's how you feel about

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Speaker 2: If that's how you feel about their offense.

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Speaker 1: I'm cool with what was the team total you were

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Speaker 1: seeing out there? I think I was seeing him somewhere. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm cool with that, Like that is kind of where

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Speaker 1: I'm projecting the finishes right under with fifteen and a

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Speaker 1: half points, and well, how many teams have gone over

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Speaker 1: that just Illinois this season or correct?

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm cool with that too. If you want

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Speaker 1: to parlay that or get invested that way and not

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Speaker 1: pay the juice.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think that's a decent strategy as well.

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Speaker 2: But again I'm I'm on the the under for the

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Speaker 2: game that is going.

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Speaker 1: To be my Okay here, okay, let's go ahead, and

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Speaker 1: before we get to the player pops, a quick reminder

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Speaker 1: and activating your trial on the upgrade screen, Bob, let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and get to the props. And before I

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Speaker 1: turn it over to your player props, I have a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a long shot that I'm sprinkling on here.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to Ohio State winning margins seven to twelve

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Speaker 1: points plus four to twenty five right now, so over

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Speaker 1: a four to one payout, And that's just how I

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Speaker 1: see this one going. I think Ohio State they're going

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Speaker 1: to win this game, and I don't think it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be by much more than double digit. I don't even

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Speaker 1: know if we get the double ditits, but I feel

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Speaker 1: confident they do win by a touchdown. So that's why

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead, especially with like how this team

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Speaker 1: rolls bogs when they get up in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: it feels like, whether it's last year or whether it's

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Speaker 1: this year, they just start running the ball, right, They

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Speaker 1: just start imposing their will with those five stars up front.

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Speaker 1: I think that's what we see a lot of. So

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's a runaway, but I think it's

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Speaker 1: very much over a touchdown here. So seven to twelve

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Speaker 1: points plus four twenty five if you want to take

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Speaker 1: them to win by under seven points is well, I've

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Speaker 1: seen like plus three seventy five out there for that,

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Speaker 1: so I don't hate that. Boggs. Where are you heading?

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Speaker 1: You have four player props for us. Let's start in

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Speaker 1: your anytime touchdown calls THO.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with bo Jacks And I think

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Speaker 2: that there's a lot of ways that Ohio State can score.

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Speaker 2: But I think in a grinding game like this, in

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Speaker 2: a long drive, you wear it out, just give it

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Speaker 2: to Bo Jackson near the goal line and he gets in.

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Speaker 2: It's minus one sixteen, So it's not bad choice either.

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Speaker 2: So that's where I'm gonna start my next one. I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go Carson Beck under half an interception and this

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Speaker 2: one I picked this one and I initially wrote it

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Speaker 2: over and then I was diving and I'm like, I

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Speaker 2: don't think Carson Beck actually throws a pick in this game. Now,

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Speaker 2: if they're I think if you do see Ohio State

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Speaker 2: get to a double digit lead, specifically late in the game,

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Speaker 2: if we're in the middle of the third, we're in

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Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, and it is ten points, then this

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Speaker 2: one will get dicey. But if this plays as close

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Speaker 2: as I feel like it's going to look. Carson Beck

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Speaker 2: is fourteen out of those same one hundred and five

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Speaker 2: qbs in turnover worthy play percent is twelve two point

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Speaker 2: three percent this year. He only has ten turnover worthy

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Speaker 2: plays all season, and Ohio State is eighty fifth in

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Speaker 2: turnovers force this year. They have been stopping everybody at

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Speaker 2: an insane margin. The third down defense for Ohio State

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Speaker 2: has been crazy, right, They get after the passer as well,

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Speaker 2: but they have not been forcing those turnovers like they

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Speaker 2: did last year. So I just think Carson Beck may

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Speaker 2: not have an interception in this game, and you're getting

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Speaker 2: plus money on that right now, because obviously they're expected

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Speaker 2: to lose their eight and a half point dogs, so

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Speaker 2: nine and a half point dogs depending on where you're looking,

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Speaker 2: So I think that one could be interesting. Carson Beck

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Speaker 2: has been pretty clean with the ball recently, so we'll

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Speaker 2: see it's another big spot. But he didn't throw one

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Speaker 2: against A and M there. So the next one, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go with Mark Fletcher over fifty four and a

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Speaker 2: half rushing yards. He's cleared this in seven of eleven games.

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Speaker 2: I think it's pretty clear that he is going to

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Speaker 2: be getting the football with his twenty carries that he

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Speaker 2: had twenty three carries excuse me in the last game, sorry,

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Speaker 2: seventeen carries for one hundred and seventy two yards. And

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Speaker 2: he's cleared this in a bunch of games in some

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Speaker 2: of the big games too. Florida State he had seventeen

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Speaker 2: against Florida, had thirty carries. Against uff USF he had

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Speaker 2: sixteen carries. I think that Fletcher can get to this,

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Speaker 2: you know, probably grinding out a bunch of carries. That's

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Speaker 2: still low yard per carry if he has fifteen, So

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Speaker 2: I think he can get to that. And then we're

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Speaker 2: gonna go Jeremiah Smith over twenty eight and a half

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Speaker 2: as his longest reception. We did see Mario Krager hit

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Speaker 2: a fifty nine yarder yes last week against them, and

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Speaker 2: he's hit this in seven of twelve. And again, you

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Speaker 2: know Bain and Mezador great, they are going to harass

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Speaker 2: Julian Sand He is going to have a rougher day

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Speaker 2: in this game.

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Speaker 1: But it does.

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Speaker 2: It takes on one slip from those guys, one play

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Speaker 2: where they chip right and Jeremiah Smith gets open and

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Speaker 2: he is open like seven to eleven, almost twenty four

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Speaker 2: to seven. So I expect him to have a huge

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Speaker 2: play in this game, and that might be the difference maker.

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Speaker 2: But twenty eight and a half, I think it's just

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Speaker 2: too low for Jeremih Smith in a game like this.

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Speaker 2: He's not a ghost like Ryan Williams.

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Speaker 1: No, No, absolutely not. He is. You know, followed up

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Speaker 1: his great season with another great one. Didn't win that

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Speaker 1: Blintakough Award like I was betting him to do, but

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Speaker 1: still a really good one. And it seems like whenever

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, we saw it late in that National Championship game,

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Speaker 1: when they need to play, they're looking for Jeremi Smith.

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Speaker 1: And it's not just on short yardage situations. It's it's

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Speaker 1: going deep to him. And you mentioned at Craver he

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Speaker 1: had a field day against Miami last week despite the

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Speaker 1: wind down there in Kyle Field. So I expect good

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Speaker 1: things from Jeremih Smith. I would even honestly entertaintentionally to

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Speaker 1: Carneal Tate over yards on the longest reception too. I

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Speaker 1: like Mark Fletcher, like if I could bet, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you can do over rushing attempts on him,

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Speaker 1: but I would be interested in.

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Speaker 2: May see it. That's what I Okay, No, I'm one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent with you in that that's what I wanted.

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Speaker 2: I didn't see it, but this this yardage total is low,

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Speaker 2: and he's obviously getting used more than Pringle right now.

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Speaker 2: And he had the huge.

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Speaker 1: Yeah thet week, So I've kind of turned away from

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Speaker 1: Pringle here at least late in the season, despite it

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Speaker 1: kind of being more of a fifty to fifty split

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Speaker 1: earlier on. So excited to see that in Bo Jackson. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, I think they just imposed their will

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Speaker 1: late and it's a lot of him. And that's also

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Speaker 1: I think the Bo Jackson play kind of opens you

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Speaker 1: up to Jeremiah Smith because nobody does play action is effective.

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Speaker 1: I feel like as Ohio State right now, just because

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Speaker 1: they have those two receivers who can just say in Moss.

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Speaker 2: People, freshmen are not supposed to be like this. They're

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Speaker 2: not supposed to lead the league in completion percentage, passing grade,

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Speaker 2: all that good stuff. Julian sand is the difference in

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Speaker 2: this game. If he has a bad game, then Ohio

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Speaker 2: State can lose this game. I don't think it's going

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Speaker 2: to play out that way though.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go ahead, Bogs and let's get to the

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Speaker 1: same game parlay of the week, and we got two

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Speaker 1: lego putting our two best bets together. In leg one,

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Speaker 1: it's at Ohio State all minus six and a half

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Speaker 1: minus one sixty seven, and then Boggs is under forty

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Speaker 1: three and a half minus one twenty that is going

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Speaker 1: to come to parlay odds a plus one eighty five,

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Speaker 1: So Bogs almost a little two to one payout action.

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Speaker 1: And if it's right into your game script as well,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State to win, maybe not win by a ton,

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Speaker 1: but still win by a touchdown and then also covering

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Speaker 1: that under as well, get that money. I like it,

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Speaker 1: And let's go ahead and let's get to our final

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Speaker 1: score predictions. Bogs. Your final score for this good Year

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Speaker 1: Bowl is.

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Speaker 2: Twenty four thirteen Ohio State, and I think they score

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Speaker 2: that last touchdown late, so I think that's like a

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Speaker 2: ceiling touchdown in the last two to three minutes where

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Speaker 2: this game is seventeen thirteen for a big chunk of

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Speaker 2: it right, probably a little bit lower scoring and grinding

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Speaker 2: than we think. I think Ohio State buries this one

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Speaker 2: late with the dagger touchdown. Hopefully that's our Bo Jackson

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Speaker 2: touchdown as well. So twenty four to thirteen is my final.

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Speaker 2: So they cover and this game stays under just like

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Speaker 2: we want.

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Speaker 1: And I'm gonna say the same exact thing. I didn't

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Speaker 1: even look at yours ahead. Oh wow, we are in

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Speaker 1: the same time frame, We are in the same mindset

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Speaker 1: as well. Twenty four to thirteen Ohio State over Miami.

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Speaker 1: I just think this is one Miami's had a great season.

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Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, though, Carson

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Speaker 1: Beck does Carson Beck things. I think Mario Christiball does

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Speaker 1: Mario Christaball type things, and I think Ryan Day just

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Speaker 1: keeps on putting it down. And you know, once you

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Speaker 1: get back to the National Championship game, they've had some

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Speaker 1: time to prepare for Miami, They've had time to get

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Speaker 1: rested up. So I think Ohio State's going to be

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Speaker 1: flying around down there in the Cotton Bowl on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: So Bog's very much looking forward to this game. That

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Speaker 1: is going to do it though for us. On this

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Speaker 1: episode of The Benicos College Football Show, be sure to

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Speaker 1: check out Bog's best bets for the remaining bowl games.

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Speaker 1: It's already out there, whether you're listening on the audio

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Speaker 1: feed or on the YouTube channel. That should be out

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Speaker 1: there available for you now, and we also have micro

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Speaker 1: episodes coming out for all three of the other CFP

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Speaker 1: games coming your way this week. So let us go

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Speaker 1: down the comments below on this episode your favorite picks

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Speaker 1: for the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, and while you're here, make

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Speaker 1: sure you're smashing that like but and subscribing to the

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Speaker 1: channel if you knew for Scott Bogan, upsetable cock take

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Speaker 1: care of y'all. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,000
Speaker 2: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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