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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen Hoddy forty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the kickers block the college football world standard.

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Speaker 4: Oh my goodness, big stumbled and football the lateral turn,

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Speaker 4: the counter of the job.

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Speaker 1: Don't you the lad.

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Speaker 3: Table off the field to night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the side of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 2: it's the side of the fight.

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Speaker 3: In the hole. What's up the general nation? Welcome to

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Speaker 3: the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by Beth NNGM.

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Speaker 3: This is the Week three college football betty Preview. I'm

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Speaker 3: Stucky joining me as always, Colin Wilson, Colin we h

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Speaker 3: It's not the most appetizing slate, but that's why we

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Speaker 3: have betting lines. And there's some gross matchups on the

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Speaker 3: board that we're going to talk about, which is why

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Speaker 3: I'm wearing my Stogies with Pogy shirt. We'll talk a

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Speaker 3: little Charlotte. We'll get to a lot of ugly games.

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Speaker 3: If you just filter for top twenty five on the

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Speaker 3: Action app, you look at the spreads, you're like, oh my,

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Speaker 3: a lot of big favorites. I will say, though, whenever

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Speaker 3: there's a week like this when it doesn't look great

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Speaker 3: on paper just from a results based, you know, straight

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Speaker 3: up perspective. This is college football. I can almost guarantee

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Speaker 3: you something crazy will happen. Someone that you don't expect

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Speaker 3: will go down this weekend.

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Speaker 2: If I had to go really out on a limb.

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Speaker 2: I'm uncomfortable with Penn State going to play Illinois because

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Speaker 2: Beilama has given James Franklin issues in the past. Not

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Speaker 2: that I want to give Brett blab Out a whole

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Speaker 2: bunch of love, but he always finds a way to

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Speaker 2: coach against James Franklin.

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Speaker 1: I do not like that.

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Speaker 3: That's a scary game. That's a scary game for sure,

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Speaker 3: and there's a lot of look ahead. So we'll start

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Speaker 3: there and for what it's worth with the Illinois Penn

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Speaker 3: State because we're not going to cover that game specifically. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: there's a couple things like Illinois really misses Chase Brown

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Speaker 3: and I have questions about the Penn State receivers and

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Speaker 3: that passing attack right that's going to determine the defense

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Speaker 3: is great in order to reach their ceiling. Right for

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Speaker 3: our futures and everything we've talked about, the receivers need

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Speaker 3: to emerge. So if they don't get it done this

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Speaker 3: week against a revamped Illinois secondary, then I'll have some concerns. So,

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Speaker 3: but that's definitely a spot where Illinois will play up

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Speaker 3: in Penn State. We'll be happy to just get out

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Speaker 3: of there with a win, trying to avenge a nine

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Speaker 3: overtime loss. All right, let's start with look ahead or look.

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Speaker 1: Away, hangovers, sleepers and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 1: time to look ahead or away?

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Speaker 3: All right? We got ten games, we'll run through some

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Speaker 3: of them quicker than others. Let's start with a game

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Speaker 3: that everyone will be betting once again, Colorado Colorado State.

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Speaker 3: You know, if I'm going to go on a limb,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to say this game. If it would be

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Speaker 3: Colorado State pulling off an upset against Colorado, that would

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Speaker 3: be It's something that you don't expect. But if I'm

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Speaker 3: going to pick, you know, a three touchdown plus underdog

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Speaker 3: to win, I'm going to go with Colorado State. But

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Speaker 3: Colorado State. This game will be played ten Eastern at

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Speaker 3: night in primetime with Primetime at the Helm.

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Speaker 4: I love every minute of this is unbelievable.

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Speaker 3: I love it and it's worth noting that College's up

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Speaker 3: to a twenty three and a half point favorite over

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Speaker 3: under sixty one. It came out today, Jay Norvell said,

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Speaker 3: you know when I talk with my hat on, I

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Speaker 3: take my hat and glasses off when I talk when

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Speaker 3: I do interviews, like my mom taught me. By the

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Speaker 3: way Breakings just saw Colorado a quote, sir, I'm out of.

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Speaker 4: My own business budgets and me I'm trying to get ready,

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Speaker 4: trying to get out of here and be the best coach.

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Speaker 4: Jack of beer. I look up and I reasonable junk,

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Speaker 4: and Dan said about us. Talk to him once again,

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Speaker 4: haw to, why would you want to talk about us?

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Speaker 4: We don't talk about no better, But when they give

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Speaker 4: us ammunition. They here was just gonna be a good game,

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Speaker 4: and they don't mess around and made it. It's gonna

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Speaker 4: be a great tests the Battle of Colorado, but they

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Speaker 4: don't mess round and made it.

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Speaker 2: Keept for seen.

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Speaker 3: Then Aaron Barry, former Georgia quarterback, quote reachweet and said

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Speaker 3: Colorado by one hundred. So I think that's gonna be

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Speaker 3: the general sentiment. Hopefully that narrative spreads and this line

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Speaker 3: gets to twenty four. I'm waiting. I've talked to a

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Speaker 3: couple of bookmakers, everyone's betting Colorado again and maybe with

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Speaker 3: this narrative, and then as we are close to the weekend,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll get more Colorado action. So I'm waiting

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Speaker 3: to see if we get twenty four. I still like

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Speaker 3: Colorida State at plus twenty three and a half. This

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Speaker 3: is a really good spot, just situationally for Colorado State. Right,

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Speaker 3: so they had a bye week while Colorado has played

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Speaker 3: two Power five teams, big emotional wins, including last week

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Speaker 3: in their home opener, and they beat the you know,

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Speaker 3: the national runner up the week before. Then they have

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Speaker 3: Oregon and USC on deck, Like this is this a

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Speaker 3: sandwich of all sam? I know it's a rivalry game

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Speaker 3: and it's on campus, which rarely happens anymore in this rivalry.

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Speaker 3: I think they've played ten straight in Denver. The last

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Speaker 3: one in Boulder was in two thousand and nine, and

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Speaker 3: actually Colorado State pulled off an upset. But Colorado State

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Speaker 3: two weeks to prepare for this game after getting embarrassed,

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Speaker 3: they've stowed on that loss. And by the way, for

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Speaker 3: what it's worth, Washington State has looked better than I

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Speaker 3: think everyone thought. So maybe that loss wasn't as bad,

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Speaker 3: but this is definitely a major sandwich spot. We sure

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Speaker 3: have a lot of sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches. Colida State's

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Speaker 3: also going with a new quarterback in Nicolosi. That he

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Speaker 3: actually was the one who had the game is kind

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Speaker 3: of out a hand who had the most success moving

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Speaker 3: the ball, but he's I've got two weeks to prepare

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Speaker 3: for this Colorado defense that I think is gettable. We'll

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Speaker 3: see if you can just take snaps that'll be a

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Speaker 3: step in the right direction compared to last week. And

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Speaker 3: I think this Colorado State team could have some success

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Speaker 3: with their defensive line. So I you know, I haven't

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Speaker 3: bet the Colorado any Colorado game. I haven't touched up

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Speaker 3: anything with Colorado this entire year. I think I have

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Speaker 3: enough data and have seen enough as far as their

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Speaker 3: strengths and weaknesses to say that in this particular spot,

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Speaker 3: twenty three to twenty three and twenty four is too big.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna be on Colorado State here. Do you agree?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, I mean I have a Colorado State Game

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Speaker 2: of the year. Thanks to all the fans out there

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Speaker 2: to point it out how bad the number is. But

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Speaker 2: I believe in Colorado State I have all season.

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Speaker 3: I would take the very long you and brought out

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Speaker 3: plus ten. That's some Yeah, that's some good good Colvo.

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Speaker 2: That's some good COLV. But you know what, other people

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Speaker 2: have been bitching in the first couple of weeks about

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Speaker 2: their COLV not winning a thing. So we'll see if

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Speaker 2: my reverse SOV can do anything. But if I didn't

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Speaker 2: have a Game of the yearbed, I absolutely would bet

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Speaker 2: Colorado State because this is a great spot right after

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Speaker 2: these high emotional games where Fox has done their pregame

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Speaker 2: live from your field. You got Oregon USC coming up

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Speaker 2: here after this. Do you really care about this game?

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Speaker 2: Maybe you do. Now that Jay Norvel, which I love

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Speaker 2: Jay Norvel, but now that Jay Norvel is kind of,

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Speaker 2: you know, poking the bear here. We'll see where the

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Speaker 2: narrative goes here, but it's gonna definitely help the spread.

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Speaker 2: I would take the very last number. And Jane Norvel

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Speaker 2: did deliver on one aspect. He said, you know, in

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Speaker 2: Mountain West Conference media days, he said that the breakout

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Speaker 2: player is going to be Justice Ross Simmons. We saw

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Speaker 2: that against Wazoo three point six yards per route run,

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty three yards on five catches. He

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Speaker 2: is as explosive as Tory Horton on the other side.

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Speaker 2: And so my question there is, does do we see

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Speaker 2: some Travis Hunter fatigue because the other side of the

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Speaker 2: defense and coverage from a corner perspective and a safety

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Speaker 2: perspective has not been good whatsoever. So, you know, Travis

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Speaker 2: Hunter can only do so much on the offensive side

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Speaker 2: of the ball. This would be game three, is a

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Speaker 2: third game in a row, with what one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty plus snaps, maybe one hundred and fifty. Is there

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Speaker 2: some fatigue at some point point because these wide receivers

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Speaker 2: can absolutely fly. I'm not putting a lot of stock

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Speaker 2: in that Wazu box score. Wazoo proved to me last

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Speaker 2: week that they are a legit top twenty five, top

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Speaker 2: thirty team, and we know what Colorado is. Their third

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Speaker 2: down explosives, their defensive havoc that is going to run

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Speaker 2: out at some point. So yeah, I would absolutely buy

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Speaker 2: a huge number here.

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Speaker 3: The game was you know, one possession spread last week.

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Speaker 3: This is a much different story trying to cover you know,

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Speaker 3: twenty four points. I think Colorado State can have enough

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Speaker 3: success on offense here to stay within this number in

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Speaker 3: a rivalry game off foot bye. All right, so let's

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Speaker 3: move on to your neck of the woods. Let's talk

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Speaker 3: a little Arkansas Woo pig Suy. Arkansas is hosting BYU.

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Speaker 3: Arkansas is down to an eight and a half point

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Speaker 3: favorite over Under has crashed a forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 3: Arkansas does have LSU on deck. I don't really have

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Speaker 3: a big feel on this game, major feel either way

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Speaker 3: in this game. I do know that that the clock

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Speaker 3: rules should come into play absolute. Both teams want to

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Speaker 3: run it and they go slow. My main, my main

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Speaker 3: point I want to make here is shout out to

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Speaker 3: Sam Pittman who was talking about how great he thinks

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Speaker 3: Sam Houston State is and there is no Sam Houston

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Speaker 3: State this week. They have a bye, So I wanted

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Speaker 3: to get my Sam Houston State love in this episode.

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Speaker 3: Eat him Upcatz, shout out coach, welcome to the bandwagon.

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Speaker 3: I think I think Sam Houston's really good. I think

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Speaker 3: they're really good on Dad, I think you like the

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Speaker 3: under here. This clock should be moving throughout and it'll

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Speaker 3: be I think hard for both offenses to create a

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Speaker 3: lot of explosive plays and sustained dry Yeah.

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Speaker 2: It's not hard to figure out when Brett tweets out

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Speaker 2: about how many number of coaches hate the new clock rules,

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Speaker 2: it's not hard to figure out where Pittman falls because

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Speaker 2: he hates the new clock rules and he talks about

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Speaker 2: it often. And that comes into the fact that they

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Speaker 2: were struggling ARTSLWA was struggling against Kent State last week

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Speaker 2: and they had a limited number of possessions in the

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Speaker 2: first half and the second half against a team like

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Speaker 2: Kent both those teams are just blowing through clock like

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Speaker 2: there's no tomorrow. The game ended in two hours and

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Speaker 2: forty minutes, and Pittman has talked about the frustrations on offense,

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Speaker 2: like trying to get into a groove, trying to get

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Speaker 2: you some more playing time for some players. But this

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Speaker 2: game right here is an undershot all the way. Arkansas

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Speaker 2: under new defensive coordinator Travis Williams, has been aggressive. They

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Speaker 2: are top ten and finishing drives in havoc. They have

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Speaker 2: not given up any explosives. The Cincinnati linebacker transfer Jahem

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Speaker 2: Thomas has just been everywhere, leads the team and tackles

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Speaker 2: and stops and the BYU defense is really what Sam

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Speaker 2: Pittman focused on. In his presser, he talked about Jay Hill,

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Speaker 2: the DC coming in from Weaver State. BYU all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden, is a top ten tackling team. They haven't

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Speaker 2: been that in years. Their eleventh in defensive finishing drives.

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Speaker 2: They haven't been that in years. So I know the

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Speaker 2: cupcake schedule, the low strength of schedule, but hey, this

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Speaker 2: is a great positive turnaround for BYU on defense. I

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Speaker 2: think the one thing that led me to believe that

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Speaker 2: this is absolutely an undergame and that you probably should

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Speaker 2: look at taking BYU is that Pittman had some issues

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Speaker 2: with BYU's defense being an odd front. Three guys up front,

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Speaker 2: three guys in the back, whether that's a three four

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Speaker 2: or a three three five, whatever, you know he's talking

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Speaker 2: about with an odd front. He said that Arkansas has

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Speaker 2: not practiced against that. They haven't seen it, they haven't

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Speaker 2: practiced against it, and it gives the offense a lot

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Speaker 2: of pause. And that's not good because you don't have

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Speaker 2: Rocket Sanders a second consecutive week, and your running backs

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Speaker 2: have been poured to Binion not been able to run

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Speaker 2: the ball whatsoever. Aj Green not been able to run

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Speaker 2: the ball whatsoever. They are running straight into blocks, they

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Speaker 2: don't know where the offensive linemen are blocking out. And

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Speaker 2: then you look at the wide receivers Andrew Armstrong, Jaden Wilson.

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Speaker 2: They've dropped so many passes against Kent State. This Arkansas

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Speaker 2: offense is not smooth and this is an under all

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Speaker 2: the way, wouldn't blame anyone for taking BYU.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to the ACC. There's a

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Speaker 3: big game next weekend. I'm lost a little of its

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Speaker 3: luster when Clemson lost to Duke, but still be a

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Speaker 3: massive game, especially with Florida State beating LSU and continuing

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Speaker 3: to look dominant. Assuming that they get by Boston College,

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Speaker 3: that'll be a really important game, not only for the

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Speaker 3: ACC standings, but for college football playoff implications. So Florida

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Speaker 3: State and Clemson play for their next week to either

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Speaker 3: get caught looking ahead prepping for that game not showing

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Speaker 3: much resting because they do have with amounts to basically

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Speaker 3: a warm up scrimmage type game both around. You know

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Speaker 3: they're both over three touchdown favorites. Florida State is a

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Speaker 3: twenty six ish point favorite at Boston College. That number

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Speaker 3: has come down along with a total I'll get to

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Speaker 3: that in a second, and totals down from fifty four

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Speaker 3: and a half to forty eight, and Clemson, which plays

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Speaker 3: at night against Florida Alantic's twenty four and a half

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Speaker 3: point favorite over under fifty one and a half. Big

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Speaker 3: news with Florida State. Boston College to Thomas Costianos is

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Speaker 3: going to get the start again for Emmitt Moorhead. For

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Speaker 3: Boston College. I think it was put projectively be the

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Speaker 3: number one running back pack Garrow. He's probably out Costaanna Sexure.

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Speaker 3: They're leading Rusher. BC's been a mess, barely beat Holy Cross,

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Speaker 3: lost in Northern Illinois home. This number has come down

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Speaker 3: not because of BC love but because of the hurricane,

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Speaker 3: which will impact a number of FCS games in the

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Speaker 3: At the FBS level, primarily it's going to be Yukon FIU.

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Speaker 3: We've seen that number come down. Yukon's quarterback Faniano your boy.

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Speaker 3: He's out for the year, so Taekwon Robinson, the former

264
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Speaker 3: Penn State transfer, will take over there. And FIU can't

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Speaker 3: really throw the ball, so maybe the rain doesn't the

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Speaker 3: weather doesn't really impact them as much, but neither team

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Speaker 3: can really throw the ball. It's been interesting to see

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Speaker 3: how that plays out. But Florida State, Boston College, but

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Speaker 3: should be reigning high sixty seven. The wind is the

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Speaker 3: biggest thing. The rain doesn't really matter. Wins as of

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Speaker 3: now northwest twenty eight to thirty miles per hour gustus

272
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Speaker 3: high as forty to forty five. That's major. If you

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Speaker 3: go back historically, these extreme win games, even against the

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Speaker 3: closing number, which will impact field goals, obviously trying to

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Speaker 3: throw the ball. These extreme win games have done very

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Speaker 3: well against obviously before the move, but even after the

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Speaker 3: market adjusts and the market does get in front of

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Speaker 3: these early to midweek, and we've seen both of these

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Speaker 3: totals crash. So BC in a good spot catching close

280
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Speaker 3: to four touchdowns in a hurricane, it has to be

281
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Speaker 3: somewhat in worth a look. Any thoughts on them or FAU.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I would love to get into this number,

283
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Speaker 2: but the problem is when pack arwall is not going

284
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Speaker 2: to play, that leaves Ky Robischow out just to run

285
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Speaker 2: the ball. I don't expect Thomas Caslonas to be able

286
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Speaker 2: to throw the ball in twenty mile an hour wins

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Speaker 2: forty mile an hour or gus. And if you look

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Speaker 2: at Alumni Stadium, that's what I love about our action labs.

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Speaker 2: You can go in and see the wind orientation. If

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Speaker 2: it's going to be like straight on from end zone

291
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Speaker 2: to end zone or sideline to sideline. And this one

292
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Speaker 2: is cross stadium wins, So from sideline to sideline that's

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Speaker 2: gonna be a huge problem. I don't think either team

294
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Speaker 2: is going to have a lot of success throwing the ball,

295
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Speaker 2: not even attempt to throw the ball. So when you

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Speaker 2: look at that, will Boston College be able to run

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Speaker 2: against the Florida State Front seven?

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Speaker 5: No?

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Speaker 2: Not even if the weather was fine, they'd be able

300
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Speaker 2: to run against the Florida State Front seven. To me,

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Speaker 2: this game screams twenty eight to zero. I would be

302
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Speaker 2: more comfortib. I think the best bet in this game

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Speaker 2: is Boston College under ten and a half on a

304
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Speaker 2: team total. And then when you get to Florida Atlantic Clemson,

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Speaker 2: I just this is an under here. The two items

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Speaker 2: that came out of Dabos pressor Casey Thompson is a

307
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Speaker 2: quarterback that can hurt, that can attack the defense, and

308
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Speaker 2: their turnovers have to improve. Clemson is minus two net turnovers,

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Speaker 2: but they've had three fumbles, two I iNTS. You know,

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Speaker 2: caid Clubnick he talked specifically about Kid Clubnick. He needs

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Speaker 2: to go from having catastrophic plays too bad plays. We

312
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Speaker 2: are still working with k to stop from having catastrophic plays.

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Speaker 2: So for me, this is an under here all the way.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure Clemson can put up their share of points.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would still look at the under in Florida

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Speaker 3: State BC even after the move Florida State. With Clemson

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Speaker 3: on deck in this weather, all right, they're not gonna

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Speaker 3: be chucked all over the field like they're going to

319
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Speaker 3: build a big lead and then probably just want to

320
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Speaker 3: get out of dodge right the second half under if

321
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Speaker 3: it's out of hand. Moving on to the Big twelve,

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Speaker 3: the big story of last week, which we covered a

323
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Speaker 3: couple of times on the New BCS and our recap episode,

324
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Speaker 3: Texas very dominant victory at Alabama at Baylor on deck.

325
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Speaker 3: We'll see what the Baylor quarterback situation looks like by

326
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Speaker 3: that time, like Shapin could be back. First the classic

327
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Speaker 3: sandwich spot though sandwiches, Texas has Wyoming. They're hosting Wyoming,

328
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Speaker 3: who beat Texas Tech at home. Texas is twenty nine

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Speaker 3: and a half point favored here over under forty eight

330
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Speaker 3: and a half. I mean Texas just was so impressive

331
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Speaker 3: last week. I don't know if Wyoming has the horses

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Speaker 3: to keep up. It's definitely a good spot, but I'm

333
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Speaker 3: staying away any love for the Pokes.

334
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Speaker 2: There's some love for the over that I have here.

335
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Speaker 2: I mean, Wyoming continues to have really good offensive output

336
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Speaker 2: thirty one against Portland State, although we know Portland States

337
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 2: have got blown up for eighty against Oregon. But you know,

338
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 2: Peasley is still throwing the ball. There's a massive upgrade

339
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Speaker 2: all around offensively compared to last year.

340
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Speaker 3: When it comes to pack he got banged up by

341
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Speaker 3: the way, but he expected to play.

342
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Speaker 2: Yeah he should. He should be playing in this But

343
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Speaker 2: it's tough to say if there's a letdown or an

344
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,440
Speaker 2: overlook here for Texas because I went back in history

345
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Speaker 2: to look at the long Horns, Like what happens? What

346
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Speaker 2: do you do after a big game? Last year, they

347
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Speaker 2: lost Tobama by one, just a heartbreaker. You would expect

348
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Speaker 2: them to not show up. The next week they throttled

349
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Speaker 2: UTSA one by twenty one points with Hudson Carr with

350
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Speaker 2: their backup quarterback. That was before a trip to Texas Tech.

351
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Speaker 2: So it was the same kind of sandwich spot last

352
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Speaker 2: year and they had no problems throttling UTSA roster still

353
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Speaker 2: has a lot of depth, particularly at quarterback and running back.

354
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Speaker 2: Even if CJ. Baxter isn't able to make it and play,

355
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Speaker 2: Jonathan Brooks will be there. Wyoming is still going to

356
00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 2: have an offensive trajectory that's way above last year. And

357
00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:08,520
Speaker 2: Texas does not fall asleep look ahead. They still play

358
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Speaker 2: sound everybody in the depth chart wants to play. I'll

359
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:11,679
Speaker 2: go over forty eight here.

360
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,440
Speaker 3: Moving on to the team you just mentioned in the

361
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Speaker 3: SEC and Alabama. Alabama, off of that loss to Texas,

362
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Speaker 3: you assume they would come out a little angry and focus,

363
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 3: but they do have old miss and the start of

364
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Speaker 3: SEC play on deck and.

365
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Speaker 4: I'm gonna tell you what if I had a barometer

366
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Speaker 4: up here to say whether you were give an effort

367
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,159
Speaker 4: or not, it was about fifty percent.

368
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 2: Why did you push yourself?

369
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Speaker 3: Alabama will travel to South Florida, their first road non

370
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Speaker 3: conference game against a group of five teams since two

371
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:47,320
Speaker 3: thousand and three against Hawaii South Florida. I think there

372
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,439
Speaker 3: was some shirts out there like just cover the spread.

373
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,720
Speaker 3: Alabama is a thirty two point favorite. Do you get

374
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 3: a focused Alabama effort. One angle here for me is

375
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 3: like you could say, all right, now, Alabama, their season's

376
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 3: not over yet. They have a little miss, and then

377
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:08,439
Speaker 3: it's like it's all right, let's we can win out.

378
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,199
Speaker 3: Let's focus on those games. But I think that they

379
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 3: really want to get a look at what Milroe has

380
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 3: from a passing perspective. Right last week it was bad.

381
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 3: And then if Milro is not going to be the guy,

382
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 3: if he's going to make some of those throws that

383
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,359
Speaker 3: he did last week. They have some backups who were

384
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,359
Speaker 3: in the quarterback competition, So even if they're up, I

385
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,560
Speaker 3: think they want to get some looks at them throwing

386
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Speaker 3: the ball right and then kind of evaluate where they

387
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 3: stand from a passing perspective headed into conference play. So

388
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 3: this might not be your typical of Alabama is angry,

389
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 3: comes out, builds a big lead, and then sits on.

390
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 3: It doesn't show anything because they want to get their

391
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,680
Speaker 3: backups in and get a look at them passing in

392
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Speaker 3: live game action. What do you see here?

393
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 2: I love Alabama in this spot. I know that we

394
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,399
Speaker 2: talked about this. You know it's a sandwich spot. And

395
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 2: so what I did was, first off, I power rate

396
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:54,920
Speaker 2: this thing over thirty five, so I was happy to

397
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,160
Speaker 2: dive in. Whether it's thirty one, thirty two or whatever.

398
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 2: I and I can see that right now as you

399
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,199
Speaker 2: and I are recording this, some sharp shops are up

400
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 2: to thirty three and a half, So I think we're

401
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 2: going to clip thirty five. But I would still still

402
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 2: bet it when I go back into history, essentially, I

403
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:09,920
Speaker 2: went back to the beginning of twenty twenty one, not

404
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 2: including Cincinnati the playoff that's a different story, but seven

405
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 2: games against non Power five teams since the beginning of

406
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, and Nick Saban absolutely drummed all seven

407
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,679
Speaker 2: of them. Middle Tennessee, Austin, p ulm Utah State, New

408
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 2: Mexico State, Southern miss and Mercer combined score three seventy

409
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 2: five to forty five. That is an average of fifty

410
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 2: four for Alabama and six and a half for their opponents.

411
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,399
Speaker 2: Saban has wailed on these spots. Now, I don't know

412
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 2: if it's to appease the boosters.

413
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 4: Nobody wants to win more than the players that played,

414
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,120
Speaker 4: so that you can be entertained, and nobody feels worse

415
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 4: than they do when they lose.

416
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's to get people off this

417
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 2: case for what's happening in Power five games or against

418
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 2: the SEC. But he is hammering them. So I was

419
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,879
Speaker 2: ready to bet Alabama. Anyways, they're away from home, you

420
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:58,919
Speaker 2: talk to players. Maybe it's a good thing.

421
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 3: It's going to be eat my like a home It

422
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,200
Speaker 3: might also be like a home game. I mean, like

423
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,120
Speaker 3: it's in Tampa. I mean probably be more Bama fans

424
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 3: in South.

425
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Speaker 2: Florida, Alabama all the way here.

426
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 3: The other side of the Alabama Ole Miss coin is,

427
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 3: of course Ole Miss. The Rebels will host Georgia Tech

428
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 3: eighteen and a half point favorite. This number come down

429
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 3: a bit. Sitting in a dead range, I think we

430
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 3: did we disagree on this game. I love Georgia Tech.

431
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 3: Here in this spot, I'll explain why, then you can counter.

432
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 3: I look, this is oh Miss from a situational perspective.

433
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 3: They have Alabama on deck. They just escaped with a

434
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 3: bogus cover on the road against a rank two lane team. Meanwhile,

435
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech had a cupcake last week. They should come up,

436
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,160
Speaker 3: come into this game ready and rested. I'm a huge

437
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 3: fan of this. Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, I

438
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 3: think he's going to be a name that you're going

439
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 3: to be hearing of in the next couple of years.

440
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 3: And ole Miss, I just don't think that Lane wants

441
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 3: to show much year. With these huge games coming up

442
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 3: on deck, there might be a little lack of focus,

443
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 3: a little preparation for Alabama during this week. And if

444
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 3: you look historically, Cliff Kiffin is just seven twelve and

445
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 3: one against the spread as a favorite of more than

446
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 3: seventeen points. That's thirty six point eight percent three nine

447
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 3: and one against the spread of non conference in that situation.

448
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 3: Oh in three at ole Miss. The ole Miss defense too,

449
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 3: I don't trust them to lay this kind of number.

450
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 3: We even saw Tulane should have arguably won that game

451
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 3: with their backup quarterback Michael Prapton even play easy backdoor

452
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 3: shot here. I think Georgia Tech's offense is still a

453
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 3: little bit undervalued. Their secondary can hang with this old

454
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 3: Miss passing attack. So yeah, I like Georgia Tech with

455
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 3: the points. But you like ole Miss, right, I do.

456
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 2: I bought them on open at nineteen. It's sunk a

457
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 2: little bit. I think that is a combination of a

458
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 2: lot of things. First off, ole Miss shouldn't have covered

459
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,360
Speaker 2: every number against Tulane because I make it twenty four.

460
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,239
Speaker 2: But then at the same time, there's some injuries. Right

461
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,119
Speaker 2: Trey Harris has in practice, He's caught almost all all

462
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 2: of Jackson Dart's touchdown passes this year. Jalen Knox is

463
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: going to be a game time decision, Soakari Franklin is doubtful,

464
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 2: hasn't played the big utsa transfer that's come in. So

465
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 2: there's some entries for Old Miss that I can understand

466
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: why this is down. But the more I got into

467
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech's defense, not so much the coverage in the secondary,

468
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 2: it was defending the rush that really made this decision

469
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 2: for me to take All Miss because when you look

470
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 2: at it, the struggles are one hundred and seventeenth and

471
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: tackling one hundred and twenty fifth in Havoc. But then

472
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 2: when you get to this nice stat broken tackles, Georgia

473
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 2: Tech is ninety ninth and broken tackles. That is a

474
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 2: really bad characteristic to have When you have Quinn Shawn Judkins.

475
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: This is not the offensive rushing attack that you want

476
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 2: to go up against. So I mean, I do like

477
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech's brand new offense going twenty five seconds per play.

478
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 2: I think the over is worth a look here, but

479
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: I've got money down on all miss.

480
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 3: All right, head to head there. Another big game next

481
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 3: weekend Notre Dame Ohio State. Learn a lot about both

482
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 3: teams who haven't really had tough schedules. They will hosts

483
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 3: teams that they should handle. This week, Ohio State will

484
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 3: host Western Kentucky. Notre Dame will host Central Michigan. They're

485
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 3: both four to five touchdown favorites in those games.

486
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: Oh doneyball the pipes pipe.

487
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 3: I'm not fading Notre Dame or Central Michigan. Their offense

488
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,239
Speaker 3: with Emmanuel It's just it's so gimmicky. It's hard when

489
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 3: you're going up against the defense that's just much more

490
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 3: talented and you're not in the mac to really get

491
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 3: anything done. I will say that Notre Dame. Look with

492
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 3: Ohio State on deck Hartman, if he just goes nuts

493
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 3: in the first half, I know they want to get

494
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 3: a look at some of their depth quarterback pieces move

495
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: for next season and beyond. So maybe you look at

496
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 3: Central Michigan's second half. But not getting involved there. Western

497
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 3: Kentucky and their air raid will travel to Columbus to

498
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: take on Ohio State. Ryan Day just named Kyle McCord.

499
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 3: I think that's a mistake. The starting quarterback. They've looked underwhelming,

500
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 3: But it's hard to really gauge based on the level

501
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 3: of competition. Can you make a case for either dog?

502
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 2: No, No, I mean Central Michigan is not running the

503
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 2: ball that well. And you know, is Bertamanuel Junior gonna

504
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: be able to throw or run against Notre Dame. I

505
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 2: think the answer is no. They shut down the NC

506
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: State rushing attack. They stuffed ten of twenty nine, They

507
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 2: allowed zero runs to exceed twenty yards. And you know,

508
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 2: when you look on the other side of the ball,

509
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 2: the Jerrod Parker Sam Hartman marriage of offensive coordinator to

510
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 2: quarterback has just been elite so far this year. So no,

511
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 2: I don't think Central Michigan has a shot. Definitely. Like

512
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: you said, I think it's a first half bet on

513
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. I think it's a second half bet on

514
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 2: Central Michigan. And then when you look at Western Kentucky

515
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 2: and Ohio State, which I believe is catching a little

516
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 2: steam here as we're talking, I kind of like the

517
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 2: under here. I don't know what's going on with the

518
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 2: Ohio States offense, they're a mecca AGBUCA. You know, nobody

519
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 2: is being explosive a wide receiver besides Marvin Harrison junior.

520
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 2: You know, the Higo State offense is good for thirty

521
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 2: one to forty two points. Again, it's Western Kentucky defense.

522
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 2: It's just absolutely awful against the run. They're dead last

523
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 2: in lineyards stuff, right, rush explosives. I mean, it's just

524
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 2: the trifecta of how bad you could be against the

525
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 2: rush is what Western Kentucky is going up against. Mayan Williams,

526
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 2: going up against some of the running backs that Ohio

527
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 2: State has. So I don't know if we're going to

528
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 2: see a lot out of Colin mccordyer. I have. I'm

529
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 2: not impressed whatsoever. I mean, he's only seen two pressures,

530
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 2: he's only had one big time throw. But I don't

531
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 2: think Western Kentucky could be even give Ohio State any

532
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 2: kind of threat whatsoever.

533
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I can't wait to break that game down.

534
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,719
Speaker 3: Two teams that you know, one has looked great, one

535
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 3: hasn't looked great, but the competition hasn't been great. So

536
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 3: I can't wait to get into that next week. Finally,

537
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 3: the tenth look at or look away, spot mine Ohio

538
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 3: at Cincinnati. I love minead Ohio here plus fourteen and

539
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 3: a half. This is, for what it's worth, the oldest

540
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: non conference rivalry in college football, first played in eighteen

541
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 3: eighty eight. Cincinnati's won sixteen to take a one game,

542
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: leading the head to head series, and it's also the

543
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 3: longest continuously played rivalry in all of college football, dating

544
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 3: back to eighteen eighty eight. So when I break this

545
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 3: came down if you've rewind to two weeks ago, and

546
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 3: for what this is the for people in there, like

547
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 3: the trophies, this is the battle for the victory bell.

548
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 3: If you fast forward to two weeks ago, miam Ohio

549
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 3: was catching the same number range between fourteen and seventeen

550
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 3: against Miami. Right now, Miami took care of business, and

551
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 3: then we saw how good Miami was against Texas A

552
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 3: and m backing that up. But Mina of Ohio also

553
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 3: exceeded expectations against UMass. But now Miama Ohio is catching

554
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 3: a similar number at Cincy. Like I don't get another

555
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 3: playing the third straight road game. But if you go

556
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 3: back in history, teams playing a third straight road game

557
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 3: over the past twenty years, fifty three point two percent

558
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 3: against the spread, covering by an average of one and

559
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 3: a half points per game. So it hasn't either the

560
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 3: market over values it or it's not really a big

561
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 3: deal with college kids, especially early in the season. So

562
00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 3: what I just think this number is too hot, and

563
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,439
Speaker 3: I think it's mainly because of what since he did

564
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 3: last week and a lot of people upgraded Sincy a lot.

565
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 3: I disagree with that, since he has looked better. I'll

566
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 3: give him that than I thought they would under Satterfield

567
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 3: and Emory Jones a perfect fit for his system. But

568
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 3: I think last week had more to do with Pitt

569
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 3: than it did Sincy. And as you look in the

570
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 3: market right now, I think the market is also saying,

571
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 3: all right, there's issues with pick because West Virginia is

572
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 3: taking a lot of money. So I attributed that more

573
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 3: to who Pitt is going to be than who since

574
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 3: he is this year, and this is a terrible spot

575
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 3: for since he coming off that upset win on the road.

576
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: They have Oklahoma hosting Oklahoma on deck their big twelve

577
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 3: opener home debut, and with this mind of Ohio team,

578
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 3: they have a big enough offensive line like the rare

579
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 3: which is a rarity in the MAC to compete with

580
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 3: some of these teams like Sincy. The thing that I

581
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 3: was worried about with Myahawa coming to the season is

582
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 3: their offense. They need an alpha receiver Staton Mack Kippenhammer,

583
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 3: but I mean Gage Larvardane has emerged as that guy.

584
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,719
Speaker 3: He had eight catches against Miami last week. He had

585
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 3: eight catches two hundred and seventy three yards and three

586
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 3: touchdowns against UMass eight two seventy three and three. The

587
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 3: Sea Law transfer seems to be that guy. So you know,

588
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: you have an experienced quarterback here and Brett Gabbert, fifth

589
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 3: year starter on the road in the hostile environment. I'll

590
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 3: trust him to stay within two touchdowns, you know, in

591
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 3: a sleepy potential spot where since he maybe a little

592
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 3: flat looking ahead to Oklahoma off of big win. You

593
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 3: also have a coach and Chuck Martin, who in these

594
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 3: spots is very conservative, which like if they were in

595
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 3: a round robin dogg I would hate, but hod like

596
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 3: punt on fourth and one and this total's forty five,

597
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 3: I'll happily take fourteen and a half in the spot,

598
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 3: give me the Red Hawks.

599
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 2: I think I make this game thirteen and a half,

600
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 2: and I actually would buy Cincinnati at thirteen and a half.

601
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 2: So had some serious issues with Miami of Ohio. First off,

602
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: the team is one hundred and thirtieth an offensive momentum killer.

603
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 2: Offensive momentum killer as a stat that looks at interceptions,

604
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: fumble sacks, fourth downs, turnovers, ten plus yard penalties, all

605
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 2: the things that stop your offense. Miam of Ohio is

606
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 2: almost dead last offensively. I think you're good at fourteen

607
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 2: and a half, but at thirteen and a half, I'm

608
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 2: buying Cincinnati.

609
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, need fourteen and a half. Here goes any lower

610
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:19,719
Speaker 3: I am off of it all right before we move

611
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 3: on here As a reminder, the BBOC podcast is presented

612
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 3: by bet MGM use bonus code action when signing up

613
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 3: to get up to fifteen hundred dollars paid back in

614
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:32,240
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615
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 3: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

616
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

617
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Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

618
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 3: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's

619
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 3: get to the marquee matchups of the week.

620
00:30:55,000 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

621
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: out the marquee matchups will all end up betting for

622
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: Week three.

623
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: There's not many, so this will be a very quick segment.

624
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 3: We'll start with Kansas State at Missouri. Should be a

625
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 3: pretty fun game Kansas State. Both these teams are two

626
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 3: and oh for what it's worth, over unders down a

627
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 3: tick to forty eight to forty seven and a half.

628
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 3: Kansas State initially took money, now Missouri is starting to

629
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 3: take money. One thing that you know I would watch.

630
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 3: Kansasate's look really impressive. While even though the both these

631
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 3: teams are too no they got here different ways. Kansas

632
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 3: States looked really impressive. They destroyed Troy. Missouri. On the

633
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 3: other hand, it's been a little I mean, they barely

634
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: beat Middle Tennessee last week. There's a couple injuries worth watching.

635
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 3: Kansas State has been playing their first two games without

636
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 3: their starting right tackle, and they returned their where there

637
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 3: They returned their entire starting five this year. But Christian

638
00:31:55,560 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 3: Duffy has not been playing and he's good, and they've

639
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 3: had to as a result of that shuffle, some guys

640
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 3: around bbi's moved to different sides and it's just not

641
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 3: at full strength right now. And Missouri has one of

642
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 3: the best linebacking corps in the SEC has been shorthanded

643
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 3: there with Chad Bailey, who hasn't played yet. He did

644
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 3: have a deep wi he suspended for the first game,

645
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 3: but he also had a procedure that was going to

646
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 3: keep him out twenty one days.

647
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 2: It was set.

648
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 3: This game is like twenty one days, so I don't know.

649
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 3: I haven't heard anything, but when he's in there, the

650
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 3: linebacker room is really good. They also have good corners.

651
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:32,719
Speaker 3: I really like what I've seen from the Missouri defense.

652
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:37,719
Speaker 3: Some bad luck on third downswithstanding, but I look at

653
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 3: this game and the Missouri Look, I'm fine with the

654
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 3: Missouri defense. They're gonna be good, especially once they get

655
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 3: Bailey back. The Missouri offense, the offensive line's been disappointing

656
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 3: and Brady Cook has been Okay, let me look at

657
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 3: who he's played. There's just no explosiveness in this offense.

658
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 3: Part of that is dink and Duncan you know I

659
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 3: call him dink Witz During dink and Dunk drinkuits. He

660
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 3: brought in a new offensive coordinator and Kirby Moore from

661
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 3: President of State, but he did the same things like

662
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 3: not brought up downfield attack. So it's gonna be like

663
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 3: Missouri like plays in like a box and they don't

664
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 3: have I don't really love their running back room. And

665
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 3: then on the other side, Kansas State not as explosive

666
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 3: in the rushing attack at losing Deuce Bawn, but Will

667
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 3: Howard's been impressive and calm Klein now that he's been

668
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: more comfortable like calling, they're a lot more aggressive than

669
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 3: they've been in the past. You saw it last week.

670
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 3: Troy makes it fourteen to ten fifty seconds ago. They

671
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 3: go down the field to score a touchdown. Old Kansas

672
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 3: State runs at three times and punts it. So they're

673
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 3: evolving from an offensive standpoint. We'll see about those two

674
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 3: key injuries. This screams an undergame to me, and the

675
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 3: Unders taking money. I still like it forty seven and

676
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 3: a half forty eight. I think this ends up being

677
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 3: like a twenty to seventeen type of close game. I

678
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 3: would imagine Missouri maybe closes at three. I haven't liked

679
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 3: what I've seen from their offense. There's just no explosiveness.

680
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 3: Don't like what I've seen from the backs, but I

681
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,239
Speaker 3: think their defense will show up here, and I think

682
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,719
Speaker 3: this turns into a pretty low scoring game, so especially

683
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 3: if Kansas State, if they're right, tackle Duffy can't play.

684
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 3: And I don't think Kayla's going to go back to

685
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 3: bail because I theydn't really like this under. But regardless,

686
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 3: I like this under in Kansas State, Missori given me I.

687
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 2: Won Missouri UH at five and a half. I flinched

688
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 2: because I wanted a six and I didn't get it.

689
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: And it's done nothing but come on down. And I

690
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: think the question that you have to ask is this

691
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 2: the real Missouri offense? Because Drink handed the keys over

692
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 2: to Kirby Moore and said, you are completely in charge

693
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 2: of calling the play. So I thought we would see

694
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 2: what Fresno State did. Now, Fresno State had an even

695
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 2: distribution of rush and pass fifty percent. That's not what's

696
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 2: going on here. Missouri's at sixty five percent running the

697
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 2: ball right now. Like they are a heavy rush team.

698
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 2: They've had some success doing it, but this is not

699
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 2: really the offense that we were looking for. Has Kirby

700
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 2: Moore been holding back through the first two games, saving

701
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 2: it for this, keeping stuff off tape, because when they

702
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 2: need shots down the field or they're in a down

703
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 2: a distance, it says they needed to take a shot

704
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: down field. They haven't done it. Cook already has twelve pressures.

705
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 2: I know we're worried about the offensive line protecting him.

706
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, the offensive line is not look good they have.

707
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, in Kansas State, they've been vulnerable to passing through

708
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 2: the first two games against Troy and Simo. You know,

709
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet this live, And the reason I'm betting

710
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 2: it live is because I want to see if Missouri

711
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 2: is going to come out with a completely different offensive

712
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 2: game plan. These are two new corners for Kansas State.

713
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 2: They've got to defend, you know, Luther Burdon. I don't

714
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 2: know if one of them is going to come in

715
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 2: and do the slaughter, if they're going to move Luther

716
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 2: Burton outside. I want to see one series from Missouri

717
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 2: and if I can get a six live, that's what

718
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet.

719
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the other here. I think this and

720
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 3: maybe Missouri opens up. But I'm not a big Grady

721
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 3: Cook guy, and I trust this Missouri defense. See, by

722
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 3: the way, how electric the crowd is for this game.

723
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 3: A little bit of a rivalry in Missouri Kansas State

724
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 3: noon kick on SEC network Coach Drink talking about early kickoffs.

725
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 3: Want students to get a little drunker and rowdier.

726
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 5: A challenge for our fan base. You know, it's hard

727
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 5: to get loosened to that early. You know in the morning,

728
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 5: you don't probably want to track your first bro here

729
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 5: till after ten thirty. I get that, But everybody's got

730
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 5: to make sacrifices. It takes what it takes.

731
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 2: Twenty of places do that.

732
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll see what the crowd looks like and see

733
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 3: if they get a good crowd and then a little

734
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 3: home bump. All right, let's move on to probably, I

735
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 3: would say the the biggest marquee game of the day,

736
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:29,399
Speaker 3: Tennessee at Florida, seven pm Eastern on ESPN. Florida's taken

737
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 3: a little bit of money from seven and a half

738
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 3: fish seven down to six and a half. I think

739
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 3: this touch five and a half one point. You got

740
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 3: some Tennessee buyback over under has also come down to

741
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 3: fifty eight and a half. Tennessee has not won at

742
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 3: Florida since two thousand and three lost ten straight. This

743
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 3: is the most they've been favored by in the history

744
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 3: of the series. Look, we've done this before in the podcast,

745
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 3: and it hasn't ended well telling people to bet Graham Merts.

746
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 3: I like Florida here, I like your boy, Billy Napier

747
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 3: scare money, don't make money. I'm taking that the heart

748
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 3: here in backing Graham Marks as a dog, well, I

749
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 3: am technically backing Graham Marks. I'm really fading this Tennessee offense,

750
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 3: which I don't know if a lot of people outside

751
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 3: of Knoxville and those that pay really close attention are

752
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 3: aware of how poor this offense has looked because of

753
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 3: who they played. Like, yeah, they put up thirty eight

754
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 3: against Virginia, but that's basically what JMU did and the

755
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 3: numbers weren't pretty, and the offense struggled against Austin P,

756
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 3: Austin P, the governors. There's I mean, look, there's been

757
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 3: bad drops and this is an offense that lost to

758
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 3: tackle the NFL. Two wide receivers the NFL, and then

759
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 3: Hendon hooker. Joe Milton has a rocket arm. Everyone knows

760
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 3: that it's impressive. He's going to hit some crazy downfield

761
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 3: passes and show it off sometimes, but he's just not

762
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:54,360
Speaker 3: consistent from an accuracy standpoint, and this offense needs rhythm,

763
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 3: it needs timing, and it looks all pretty when you're

764
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 3: hitting those downfield. Everyone remembers Jalan Higlett have been a

765
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 3: million touchdownskainst Alabama. But what makes that offense operate so

766
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 3: well is you also hit all of the underneath routes

767
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 3: and the running backs, and Hooker did that with amazing accuracy.

768
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 3: Milton is not. And they're just not able to sustain drives.

769
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 3: There's too many three and out. So I think he's

770
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 3: going to make a critical mistake or two against his

771
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 3: Florida team. I don't think you'ren be able to sustain drives.

772
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 3: And then on the other side of the ball, and

773
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 3: look at something else to watch here is their offensive line.

774
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 3: Cooper May's will see if he plays first team All

775
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 3: SEC center hasn't played yet. He's further. I think he's

776
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:34,280
Speaker 3: going to try to give.

777
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 5: It a go.

778
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 3: We'll see if he's healthy. The other side of the buffalo,

779
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 3: it's with Florida. Their really good center is going to

780
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 3: return this week from injury. He's already on the depth

781
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 3: chart slated to return in Kingsley Igualkin, and I think

782
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 3: what's gonna happen is Florida is going to be able

783
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 3: to control the clock, control the pace of this game

784
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 3: with their rushing attack. That's what they want to do here.

785
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 3: They want to lean on their two backs in Montreal,

786
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 3: Johnson and Trevor Etn. And then they want Merz to

787
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 3: just make the easy throws right. They don't want him

788
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 3: in passing downs, needing to throw it downfield. They want

789
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 3: to rely on Johnson, They want to rely on Etn,

790
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 3: and I think they can get a push against this

791
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 3: Tennessee defense. Control the clock, crowd will still be in it,

792
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,439
Speaker 3: control the tempo of this game, which is a huge

793
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 3: key because one of these teams wants to come out

794
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 3: firing and go fast. The other in the napier offense,

795
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 3: run first. They want to keep Tennessee on the sidelines.

796
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 3: So I'm fading Milton here. I'm backing Florida at home

797
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 3: in the swamp. I actually think they win this game

798
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 3: out right, one.

799
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 2: Hundred percent agree Florida could win this game out right.

800
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 2: I've bet it on the side. I guarantee it's going

801
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 2: to be in some round robins. If Tennessee's offense last

802
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 2: year was a Lamborghini. This is a shit heap jalopie

803
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 2: of an offense. Joe Milton didn't log a single big

804
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 2: time throw against Austin p There were four drops on

805
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 2: the day. It was ugly. I mean, if you look

806
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 2: at their catchable ball rate, it showed that Milton is

807
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 2: not throwing catchuple balls like the wide receivers are having

808
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 2: to do all the work. Now that's accuracy. Let's talk

809
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 2: about depth. Milton's numbers on balls over ten yards has

810
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 2: dropped from a just a completion percentage rate from fifty

811
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 2: nine percent in his career passes over ten yards, that's

812
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 2: down to forty six percent. I mean, he can't hit

813
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 2: anybody in stride on target, which is what you have

814
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 2: to And he's played Virginia as VP, and I don't

815
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 2: even I can't even get into how like that is

816
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 2: not good. Your strength of schedule is like one hundred

817
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 2: and fifteenth. But the you know what, you know who

818
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 2: has improved the Florida defense under Austin Armstrong, who I

819
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 2: can't even believe is twenty nine years old. Florida right

820
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 2: now top ten against the run in terms of success

821
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:45,439
Speaker 2: rate lineyards. They haven't allowed any explosives their top twenty

822
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 2: in tackling. This is exactly what we expected from the

823
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 2: Southern missmove fundamentally sound tackling success rate, lineyards, no explosives.

824
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 2: The Florida defense kind of tails off and havoc. They

825
00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: haven't really produced it yet. There isn't a pass rush,

826
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 2: but I think that's kind of by design. Only rush

827
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 2: three or four let everybody else sit back. Neither Utah

828
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 2: or McNeese state generated any explosives. I mean Utah logged

829
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 2: one pass and one run over twenty yards. I'm impressed

830
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 2: by that.

831
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 3: And they haven't played. They haven't played with their starting center.

832
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 2: Ye e exactly Montreal Johnson, Trevor etn. Not only they

833
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 2: average six yards per rush, they each generated five targets

834
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 2: out of the backfield. So I'm finally starting to see

835
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 2: the coach that will not be named what he ran

836
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 2: at Louisiana. I'm finally starting to see that in this offense,

837
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 2: after you know him being there for a while. So

838
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 2: I think Florida not only just covers here. I think

839
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 2: we're gonna be chomping all day. Scared money don't make money,

840
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 2: you know.

841
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, for what I heard, they really wanted from a

842
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 3: couple people. They really wanted Sam Hartman, and they made

843
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:43,799
Speaker 3: a move.

844
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 2: But what do you think? How big was that bag

845
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 2: that notre Dame put out there for Hartman? It had

846
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 2: to be Tommy Reaves was there when Sam Martin took

847
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 2: that bag. It had to be a huge bag.

848
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, for what it's worth, your boy, Billy Navier

849
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 3: seventeen and five against the spread, seventy seven point three

850
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 3: percent as an underdog, covering by an average margin of

851
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 3: eight points per game. You could say, oh, yeah, well

852
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 3: he was in the sun Belt Sun Belt Billy five

853
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 3: and oh against the spread last year as an underdog,

854
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 3: with four of the five coming against ranked teams. And

855
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 3: part of that is we know we need Napier to

856
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 3: get in the back door in this game. They're down

857
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 3: ten late. He's probably gonna get us there, all right.

858
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 3: So we agree, we're both both like Florida and this

859
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 3: matchup both back in Graham Mertz. What could possibly go wrong?

860
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 3: Before we move on here, I should mention another Power

861
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 3: five matchup Washington Michigan State Washington sixteen and a half

862
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 3: point favored here over Under fifty five and a half

863
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 3: big news with Michigan State as the coaching change. Both

864
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 3: of these teams are two and oh those games are

865
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 3: This game's not even on TV. This is on Peacock

866
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 3: five pm Eastern on Peacock. I'm saying, how can that

867
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 3: this game out with a lack of marquee matchups? Washington

868
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 3: Michigan State's not even on like a major hour. How

869
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:02,840
Speaker 3: bad some of these matchups are? Do you know the

870
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 3: game at Neon Eastern on FS one FS one usually

871
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 3: gets a decent game FS one Neon Eastern game Boise

872
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 3: North Dakota, like not.

873
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 2: Even North Dakota State.

874
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:20,879
Speaker 3: It's bad, Yeah, Boise North Dakota. Boise looking for their

875
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 3: first win of the season in that matchup. But anything

876
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 3: Washington Michigan State coaching changes, D'Antonio back. It's hard to

877
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 3: really gauge where how Michigan State's going to respond to

878
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 3: all this. Maybe they rally, Maybe it's a huge distraction.

879
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:36,879
Speaker 3: I know it's going to be hard from the south

880
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 3: there Washington offense regardless, I'm probably staying away here now

881
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 3: that this numbers at sixteen and a half, I think,

882
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 3: to me, it's Washington or nothing. But too hard for

883
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 3: me to gauge you.

884
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 2: Have any I think it's seventeen and a half. You

885
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 2: start to look at Michigan State. I think that's a

886
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 2: little over sold in the market. I mean, Martin D'Antonio

887
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 2: is back. He's assisting in all aspects of the program.

888
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 2: Harlan Barnett, I guess is the interim coach here. But

889
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 2: you know D'Antonio hired Barnett and two thousand and seven

890
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 2: they were together. He was on staff till twenty fourteen.

891
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 2: Harlan Barnett's been there the last three years. It's a

892
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 2: really I think what Michigan State the leaders have decided

893
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 2: to do. I think that's all positive stuff for Michigan State.

894
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 2: Saying that seventeen and a half is where you're going

895
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 2: to start looking at Michigan State. I would not get

896
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 2: wrapped up in this number whatsoever if you had anything

897
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:19,320
Speaker 2: below seventeen with Washington.

898
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, here's to see what Michigan State looks like. It's

899
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 3: really hard to gauge anything, all right. Before we move

900
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 3: on here, I do want to remind everyone to make

901
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,320
Speaker 3: sure you check out Mike and Mike, Mike Calabrese and

902
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 3: Mike I and l on the group of five Deep

903
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 3: dive every Wednesday morning here on BBOC talking all Things

904
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,839
Speaker 3: Group of five. They cast their anti Trent Dilfort ticket

905
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 3: last week in the UAV game, which led to an

906
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 3: incredible clip in the Delft press conference talking about marrying

907
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 3: a smoke show.

908
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 2: I married a smoke show and I have awesome kids,

909
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 2: and she wasn't as hot, and my kids were annoying

910
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 2: and my food sucked. And that's kind of where I'm at.

911
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 2: But my wife knows, my kids know, like, this is

912
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:57,800
Speaker 2: not what we signed up for.

913
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 5: That is not a representation of anything I believe in,

914
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 5: anything that's been preached around here, And it's my job

915
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:06,359
Speaker 5: you get to fix.

916
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 3: They always do a great job covering all the Group

917
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 3: of five action, so make sure you check that out,

918
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:13,919
Speaker 3: especially critical of this week.

919
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 2: Unite you and I build kick our coverage with our marriages,

920
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 2: you know, like we legitimately married above our heads and

921
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:22,919
Speaker 2: we would never go around saying I married a smoke show.

922
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 2: Don't tell my wife that. But are you telling? Are

923
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 2: you telling a guy at a press.

924
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,800
Speaker 3: Conference that I mean cool? How mean you do that?

925
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 3: In my high school?

926
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: All right?

927
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 3: All a week like this, I think it's time to

928
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 3: bring back at least one game.

929
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 1: Yes or no, Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big ten.

930
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 1: It's time to play FC.

931
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 3: Yes or no. We have I think four ranked FC

932
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 3: teams are traveling to PAC twelve teams, So it'll be

933
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 3: interesting to see if the PAC twelve avoid a potential

934
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 3: upset at home. We've certainly seen them in the past.

935
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 3: I think the most intriguing game let me pull up.

936
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 2: We have lions on, we have FCS, we have FCS

937
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 2: power ratings in Action network now, so we can we

938
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 2: can project I know, as stuck and I are recording this,

939
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 2: there's nothing on the board, but we can at least

940
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 2: say where we would buy and where we'd sell.

941
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're coming out later and later in the market.

942
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 3: I think it's a pretty inefficient market. They're coming out

943
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,320
Speaker 3: later and later. Weaber State is at Utah. You have

944
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 3: NC Central who's also ranked there going to UCLA Sacramento State.

945
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 3: Intriguing game there because that's Troy Tayler's old team. They're

946
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: two and oh. They're going to Stanford. But the most

947
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 3: intriguing game I think is two and oh Idaho, who

948
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,399
Speaker 3: I think is up to number five in the FC ranks.

949
00:46:54,440 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 3: They destroyed Nevada last week and they're playing a Cal

950
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 3: team that you know, looked good against North Texas. Then

951
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: it was an ugly game last week against Auburn. But

952
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:15,760
Speaker 3: Cal better be ready for quarterback Geovanni McCoy from Idaho

953
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 3: who can sling it. And I think he was the

954
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 3: FCS Freshman All American last year. If I had that

955
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:24,919
Speaker 3: money on this, if there was a market, I would

956
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 3: say he's probably a quarterback on a FBS team next

957
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 3: year and hits the transfer market after this year. But

958
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:37,280
Speaker 3: Idaho can score, they can sling it, So Calbot'll be ready.

959
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I can give you all the projections.

960
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,839
Speaker 2: I know Action Network we projected the game at about

961
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,760
Speaker 2: twenty one and a half. Sp Plus is at sixteen,

962
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 2: Sagurin is at sixteen and a half. I suspect we'll

963
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 2: probably see fourteen and a half fifteen sixteen open up

964
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 2: in the market. I think I don't care what it opens.

965
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 2: Idaho's getting Idaho is getting money from me. The second opens.

966
00:47:57,640 --> 00:47:59,879
Speaker 2: I've got my line watcher on turned int an Action Lab.

967
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:02,440
Speaker 2: I'm ready to hit open. I'm ready to bet this

968
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 2: all the way down to seven, you know, so I'm

969
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:07,439
Speaker 2: ready to hit it on Idaho.

970
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 3: The Vandals Baby going in and potentially getting a second

971
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:20,439
Speaker 3: straight road FBS win. All right, everyone's favorite segment. It's

972
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 3: time to take out some.

973
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 1: Trash the trash man pick of the week.

974
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:27,399
Speaker 3: I'm the trash man.

975
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 5: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

976
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 5: totally unreliable, undependable.

977
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 3: That's it. You've been told off.

978
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 1: How do you like that?

979
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 4: Good?

980
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 3: The trash man has arrived. Where should we start. Let

981
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,480
Speaker 3: me pull up my trash can so I can start

982
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 3: pulling out some trash pieces from here. Let's start with

983
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 3: the Battle of I twenty five New Mexico, New Mexico State,

984
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: which this rivalry started before New Mexico was even a state.

985
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 3: I like New Mexico here, shocker or fading New Mexico

986
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 3: State again. Did it against UMass? Did it against Liberty?

987
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:01,359
Speaker 3: I'm gonna sound like a broken record, but this team

988
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,760
Speaker 3: came in super valued because they beat a bunch of corpses.

989
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,280
Speaker 3: They the Corpse of Liberty and a bunch of FCS

990
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 3: teams last year to get to a bawl. And then

991
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 3: they beat Bowling Green, who was terrible, and they came

992
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 3: in with this overinflated market rating. I had them as

993
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,279
Speaker 3: one of the three worst teams in the country and

994
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:20,839
Speaker 3: Diego Pavia their quarterback. Pavia, I guess I should say

995
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 3: if you look against FCS teams, he tore up another

996
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,760
Speaker 3: FCS team this year against FCS teams and the corpse

997
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 3: of Liberty last year, he has twelve touchdowns and no interceptions.

998
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 3: In all other games is eight touchdowns, nine interceptions. The

999
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,279
Speaker 3: passing offense is just not good. The defense is going

1000
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 3: to take a step back after they lost some of

1001
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 3: the pieces on the back end. Looked out further than

1002
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 3: the Liberty game.

1003
00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 2: Like last year.

1004
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 3: They beat Liberty by twenty fours. Liberty didn't show up.

1005
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 3: They were twenty four p underdogs. We got them as

1006
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:55,799
Speaker 3: they were only catching ten nine. It went down to nine.

1007
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 3: I got the late got some more nine and a

1008
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 3: half at Liberty. I don't know why the market likes

1009
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 3: this team, and I don't think that they're better. I

1010
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 3: think they're actually worse than last year New Mexico. Meanwhile,

1011
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 3: it's hard to really gauge what we have from them.

1012
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 3: They got blown out by Texas A and M as

1013
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 3: you one would expect, and then they played an FCS school.

1014
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 3: But I actually think that they have a big upgrade

1015
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 3: at quarterback and a guy that we used to like

1016
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:23,280
Speaker 3: in Dylan Hopkins. He came with his old offensive coordinator

1017
00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 3: in Mexico is still one of the worst teams in

1018
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:27,480
Speaker 3: the country, but they've had no quarterback play. I'm talking

1019
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:29,720
Speaker 3: negative quarterback play in the past couple of years Hopkins.

1020
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 3: Actually it's a big upgrade there. It's kind of like

1021
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 3: U Mass they went from no quarterback like when Olsen

1022
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 3: comes in, it's the most horrendous thing you'll ever see.

1023
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 3: So I powerrate New Mexico higher than New Mexico State,

1024
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 3: who's coming across the country that they're playing Liberty New Mexico,

1025
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,319
Speaker 3: I think gets this done. Happy to lay one one

1026
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 3: and a half two up to two and a half.

1027
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 2: Absolutely agree. I mean I power rate this thing in

1028
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 2: two for New Mexico State. But that doesn't mean the

1029
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 2: matchup doesn't fail. Of the Lobos here, when you mentioned,

1030
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 2: you know, Brian Vincent be an offensive coordinator, Uh, you know,

1031
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,439
Speaker 2: when you mentioned having his quarterback and we have Dylan

1032
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 2: Hopkins and play their top twenty five and passing success rate,

1033
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 2: strength of schedules twenty seventh. I mean they've faced some

1034
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 2: pretty good competition here, but New Mexico is also top

1035
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:21,440
Speaker 2: twenty in big play rate. Can you pass against New

1036
00:51:21,480 --> 00:51:24,439
Speaker 2: Mexico State's defense? Absolutely, they're one hundred and thirty first

1037
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:27,440
Speaker 2: and tackling they're almost dead last, and coverage grades by PFF.

1038
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 3: Let's go with it.

1039
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:30,759
Speaker 2: New Mexico has an identity. We know what they want

1040
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 2: to do, and they're gonna be able to expose New

1041
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 2: Mexico State.

1042
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 3: Yeahf for work's about Jerry kill Might's big coach this game.

1043
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:41,360
Speaker 3: He's yeah, and like, now you're dealing with Yeah, I

1044
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:44,240
Speaker 3: have to coming across the country. He's dealing with the sickness.

1045
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:47,120
Speaker 3: Hope he as well. I know that he's like overcome

1046
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 3: cancer and some other illnesses before, so I hope he

1047
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:52,160
Speaker 3: gets okay. But it's from a football and betting perspective,

1048
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 3: like he's out. And then you have like their offensive coordinator,

1049
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 3: who is Tim Beck. He's had to take over the

1050
00:51:57,920 --> 00:51:59,760
Speaker 3: reins of the day to day activity, so he's probably

1051
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 3: not giving as much attention to the offensive game plan.

1052
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 3: And so that's a lot to deal with in a week.

1053
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,479
Speaker 3: We're coming across the country and then making the trip

1054
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 3: across Ie twenty five to play New Mexico. So let's

1055
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 3: go Lobos, all right. If you thought New Mexican and

1056
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 3: Mexico State, which I think is on a Mountain West network,

1057
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 3: as I believe, we're gonna lay it with Iowa. Laying

1058
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 3: four touchdowns with Iowa against Western Michigan. Western Michigan is horrendous.

1059
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,240
Speaker 3: I mean they lost forty eight to three that Syracuse

1060
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 3: could have been one hundred to three. Syracuse was up

1061
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 3: forty five to three at the half and then just

1062
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 3: said okay, we're cool and they had no offense. They

1063
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 3: lost all their skill position players that were cutted by

1064
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 3: the portal on defense too. And their quarterback they don't

1065
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 3: the quarterback room is dreadful. They still don't know who

1066
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 3: the really the quarterback is going to be. You might

1067
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 3: see multiple quarterbacks regardless. It's disgusting. Iowa is a twenty

1068
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 3: eight and a half point favorite here. You can actually

1069
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 3: find a twenty eight out there, and I would wait,

1070
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:00,440
Speaker 3: you know, if you have to lay, I would lay

1071
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 3: up the twenty nine and a half. So if you

1072
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:03,759
Speaker 3: can't find a twenty eight and a half at one

1073
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 3: of your books, I would wait to see to get

1074
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 3: twenty eights in a dead range of twenty eight and

1075
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:12,280
Speaker 3: I have twenty nine. But I just think that Iowa,

1076
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 3: first of all, like I don't know what Western Michigan's

1077
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 3: gonna score, So it basically comes down to this. I

1078
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 3: think is gonna plap similar to Nevada. Last last year

1079
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 3: we lay twenty four. It took seven hours multiple delays.

1080
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:24,919
Speaker 3: Hopefully doesn't take that long this year. But I don't

1081
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:28,359
Speaker 3: think that they're going to score, so can I will

1082
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:31,279
Speaker 3: get the twenty eighth plus? I think so. This Western

1083
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:34,840
Speaker 3: Michigan defense is horrendous, and this is the chance for

1084
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,720
Speaker 3: Brian Ferrence to drive up the score, get his average

1085
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,480
Speaker 3: up for his contract incentives, like this is your last

1086
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 3: real chance to put up a big number. Last time

1087
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:47,320
Speaker 3: these teams played fifty nine to three back in twenty fourteen,

1088
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 3: Iowa won. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar

1089
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 3: number now that I said that it's going to end

1090
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:54,319
Speaker 3: seventeen three, but I wouldn't be. Western Michigan special teams

1091
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 3: are also off. Wouldn't spied by to scores on special

1092
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 3: teams if they scoring to pick six. These Western Michigan

1093
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,600
Speaker 3: quarterbacks going up against this, he's bad news. Laying it

1094
00:54:01,680 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 3: with Iowa. Four touchdown favorite total under forty three hasn't

1095
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 3: happened in fifteen years at the FBS level. This is like,

1096
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 3: I'll say, forty two to three Iowa.

1097
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 2: Team total thirty five and a half on Iowa. They

1098
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 2: have not eclipsed twenty five points yet.

1099
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:16,719
Speaker 3: I think this is it.

1100
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:18,839
Speaker 2: I mean, they definitely have the avenue to blow them out.

1101
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 2: Seems like a good spot. Western Michigan is some mess.

1102
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:24,439
Speaker 3: All right, Buffalo Liberty. I played Liberty here. I wrote

1103
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 3: this up. You want to check that out on actually

1104
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 3: work dot com and Action Network, especially at three and

1105
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 3: a half. I think you can still find out there.

1106
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 3: I like Buffalo at home. They're own two. It's a

1107
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:36,879
Speaker 3: good bylow Sell high spot against Liberty. Look I back

1108
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 3: Liberty last week. The Liberty has beat Bowling Green in

1109
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:41,800
Speaker 3: New Mexico State, two teams that I think are awful.

1110
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,200
Speaker 3: I faded both of them pre season with their win

1111
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:46,839
Speaker 3: total unders. So I think the market is rewarding them

1112
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,239
Speaker 3: for those wins when they should Like I was, who

1113
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 3: cares they covered? They got eight turnovers combined in those games,

1114
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:56,360
Speaker 3: so they got a little lucky in that aspect. Buffalo meanwhile,

1115
00:54:56,440 --> 00:55:00,320
Speaker 3: loses to Fordham at home won't be the last, and

1116
00:55:00,560 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 3: wasn't the first they'd lost it home to an FCS school.

1117
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,360
Speaker 3: I think it's a good time to buy Buffalo Liberty

1118
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 3: just they beat two teams that I think are horrendous.

1119
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 3: So I'm simply just buying low selling high here with

1120
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:12,640
Speaker 3: that hook. But I think we're getting because of those.

1121
00:55:12,680 --> 00:55:14,360
Speaker 2: I'm gonna sit on the sidelines with this one. I

1122
00:55:14,440 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 2: haven't completely turned on Liberty yet, so you're in the trash.

1123
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 2: You and the raccoons and the stray cats.

1124
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:22,240
Speaker 3: Twere to throw at Buffalo is twenty two and thirteen

1125
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:24,399
Speaker 3: against the spread, sixty three percent as a home dog

1126
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 3: more than a field goal since two thousand and five,

1127
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 3: covering by four points per game. Only Texas Tech and

1128
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 3: Temple have turned bigger profits in that role over that span.

1129
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:37,280
Speaker 3: One I probably will pass on Nevada against Kansas. Nenvada's

1130
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:39,720
Speaker 3: catched in twenty eight here a terrible spot for Kansas

1131
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 3: going across the country to Reno got big twelve play

1132
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 3: on deck. They just beat Illinois. Nevada is a mess, though,

1133
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 3: I mean Brendon Lewis is terrible. They have no offense.

1134
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 3: I think Ken Wilson's a terrible coach. Their secondaries in

1135
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,760
Speaker 3: shambles is a huge coaching mismatch. You should get Nevada's

1136
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 3: best staffer. You have two key defenders for Kansas that

1137
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 3: are suspended the first half of targeting, including Kobe Bryant,

1138
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:05,520
Speaker 3: their best corner and one of their defensive ends. I

1139
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 3: just can't bet to that. There's always one or two

1140
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,200
Speaker 3: teams that are just so bad and the market can't

1141
00:56:09,239 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 3: get to the bottom fast enough, and the battom might

1142
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:13,880
Speaker 3: be that. So it's a good spot, but I'm passing.

1143
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:18,040
Speaker 3: And then we have to talk obviously about Charlotte at

1144
00:56:18,200 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 3: home against Georgia State, catching seven and a half over

1145
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:21,759
Speaker 3: unders come down a bit. I like the under here.

1146
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 3: Georgia State's secondary is horrendous. Charlotte, their roster overall's improved

1147
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:30,839
Speaker 3: from a talent level. My guy diff he's getting it together.

1148
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:32,759
Speaker 3: But it's a run first offense. They can't really throw

1149
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 3: the ball. Jalen Jones as a efficient passer. Georgia State's

1150
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:38,800
Speaker 3: been good against the run. Charlotte's gonna run it a lot. Meanwhile,

1151
00:56:38,840 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 3: Georgia State's also rush heavy offense. Charlott's defense is ahead

1152
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:47,759
Speaker 3: of its offense. These two teams face like similar type

1153
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 3: offenses in practice. This is a game where the clock

1154
00:56:51,360 --> 00:56:52,880
Speaker 3: the new clocker was going to come into play. I

1155
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:55,359
Speaker 3: like the under. I also like Charlotte. I think they're

1156
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 3: also a round robin despite me the first time in

1157
00:56:58,480 --> 00:56:59,839
Speaker 3: one club lit. They're finite gonna be in the round

1158
00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:01,719
Speaker 3: robin and might be taking them as well. And I

1159
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:02,200
Speaker 3: like the under.

1160
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 2: Charlotte is definitely Yeah, Charlotte is definitely a surprise. I

1161
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:06,879
Speaker 2: got a little bit scared with this one. I look

1162
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:08,080
Speaker 2: at the weather. The weather is going to be fine.

1163
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,880
Speaker 2: Their eighty degrees not too hot for Biff. Uh, he

1164
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:11,719
Speaker 2: should be fine there.

1165
00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 5: Our goal is very simple, win the AAC, win it repeatedly,

1166
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 5: get to the college football playoff.

1167
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 3: And that's what I'm expecting to do here. And my

1168
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 3: timetable is now.

1169
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 2: And you know, Georgia State, if you look at their defense,

1170
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:29,120
Speaker 2: they're way better at defending the run than they are

1171
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 2: the pass. So that's what gave me pause on this game.

1172
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:34,440
Speaker 3: Plus Georgia State, Yeah, they shut down Yukon's run attack

1173
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:37,320
Speaker 3: and then in their first game, he gets an FCST

1174
00:57:37,400 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 3: mar Island drop that passer through the four hundred yards

1175
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 3: against them.

1176
00:57:40,920 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 2: I want to back sharl I mean they showed up.

1177
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 2: They've showed up, you know so far here they are

1178
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 2: excellent on defense when it comes to passing downs in

1179
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:49,400
Speaker 2: their two games so far. And maybe that speaks more

1180
00:57:49,480 --> 00:57:53,000
Speaker 2: to Maryland and the Charlotte schedule, but I mean, right now, Charlotte,

1181
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 2: I don't think they've allowed an explosive play in passing

1182
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 2: downs and their top twenty five and success rate in

1183
00:57:57,280 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 2: passing down So if Georgia State gets behind the chains,

1184
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 2: that's where arl the players their best defense. But at

1185
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 2: the same time, I can't trust Charlotte yet until they

1186
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 2: trim that havoc allowed. There's just too many mistakes going

1187
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 2: on offense.

1188
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 3: I will be on Charlotte. We will be on clublet

1189
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 3: in some former profession for the first time this year.

1190
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 3: By the way, make sure you turn in ten thirty

1191
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 3: am Eastern BBOC Live. We will go over all of

1192
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 3: the biggest games of the day, give our best bets,

1193
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,240
Speaker 3: and we'll have a round robin in there. Get a

1194
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 3: fade ravel. Probably we'll have Charlotte in that round robin.

1195
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,760
Speaker 3: So I forgot how in San Diego State at Oregon

1196
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 3: State Oregon State ten zho to one against the spread

1197
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 3: at home. Since two thousand and twenty one twenty twenty one,

1198
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 3: they've been dominant home. They've looked great this year. San

1199
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 3: Diego State's defense is a mess. I mean, if you

1200
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:48,520
Speaker 3: saw what they did against Idaho State last week, against

1201
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:52,080
Speaker 3: UCLA against Ohio before work went out, I do.

1202
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 2: Love the over like there is a sharp book right

1203
00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 2: before Yeah, right before we started recording one of the

1204
00:58:56,640 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 2: Sharper books went from forty eight and a half down

1205
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:02,360
Speaker 2: to forty eight. As techo, so I will wait forty

1206
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 2: eight being so key, I would love a forty seven

1207
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 2: and a half, but I make this game fifty one

1208
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 2: in the total. I would never fade Oregon State and

1209
00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:11,080
Speaker 2: grease or stadium for any reason, no matter what the

1210
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 2: number is. So I'm looking at the total and Oregon

1211
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 2: State might be slow, but every year Jonathan Smith has

1212
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:19,240
Speaker 2: them top ten and offensive finishing drives, they are a

1213
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:21,680
Speaker 2: machine down in the red zone. Question is can San

1214
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 2: Diego State defend the rush? The answer is absolutely not.

1215
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:27,959
Speaker 2: They have fallen off a cliff one hundred and thirty

1216
00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:31,520
Speaker 2: second and defensive rushing success rate stuff rate one hundred

1217
00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:33,520
Speaker 2: and twenty fifth in the line yards. They cannot defend

1218
00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 2: the run. What has happened to the Aztecs defense? Oregon State?

1219
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 2: It's a machine. I think they're going to score every

1220
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:42,000
Speaker 2: single trip past the forty, and I think all those

1221
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:43,640
Speaker 2: scores are going to be touchdowns because they have been

1222
00:59:43,720 --> 00:59:44,040
Speaker 2: so far.

1223
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 3: All right, let's forget out of Let's go three and out.

1224
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:50,840
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1225
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 3: All right, first down, let's go to Friday night lights.

1226
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,120
Speaker 1: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1227
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:02,240
Speaker 3: Let's go flay some foota we talked about Uva Maryland.

1228
01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 3: Uva is gonna go with Musket their quarterback. He's more

1229
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 3: of like the dropback passer. I think they're Candelaria. I

1230
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:11,040
Speaker 3: think his name is I forget the exact night name.

1231
01:00:11,200 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 3: He's the freshman, their future. He runs around a little

1232
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 3: bit more and more in the mold of Brendan Armstrong.

1233
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 3: Tony Muskett came from Monmouth. He's more of a he's

1234
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:20,160
Speaker 3: more of a polished passer. We're just not as talented.

1235
01:00:20,560 --> 01:00:22,800
Speaker 3: Uva is sticking with him. I think it's a mistake.

1236
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:26,840
Speaker 3: Give Utah State at air Force. Air Force is a

1237
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 3: nine point favorite, and then Army at UTSA. That's a

1238
01:00:30,760 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 3: really interesting game. We'll see if Army as their offense

1239
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:36,080
Speaker 3: figured out. I mean they it looked good last week,

1240
01:00:36,160 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 3: but the quality of opponent not the best in Delaware State.

1241
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 3: They won fifty seven nothing. They only put up thirteen

1242
01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 3: against ul Monroe in this new look Army offense. But

1243
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:50,040
Speaker 3: they're gonna be taking on a UTSA team. We don't

1244
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 3: know if if Frank Harris is going to be available.

1245
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:55,440
Speaker 3: He was really banged out last week. I assume we'll

1246
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 3: try to play, but a lot of what makes him

1247
01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:02,480
Speaker 3: great is his legs and his ability to create. They

1248
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:06,120
Speaker 3: also lost their tackle who started a bunch of games.

1249
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 3: He's had surgery, so he's going to be out a while.

1250
01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:11,919
Speaker 3: To Corn Clark, their best receiver, he still hasn't played.

1251
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:15,800
Speaker 3: He's questionable. If you don't get Frank Harris, you get

1252
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 3: I hope Billy Lee Marberger, who's like a three star kid.

1253
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:21,760
Speaker 3: It gets dicey. Too many injury questions for me to

1254
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:23,880
Speaker 3: get behind meat meep and still too many knowns with

1255
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:27,120
Speaker 3: the Army offense not laying nine with this Air Force team.

1256
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 3: Still have questions about their offense. I know Uta State

1257
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:32,240
Speaker 3: exploded last week, but it's against the defense that couldn't

1258
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:34,760
Speaker 3: stop a nosebleed, and I'm off u Tom Maryland, So

1259
01:01:34,840 --> 01:01:37,320
Speaker 3: it looks like a pass for me on Friday night.

1260
01:01:38,040 --> 01:01:41,120
Speaker 2: Army Utsa is an underplay if Frank Harris can't go,

1261
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:44,760
Speaker 2: because Utsa has been fantastic at stopping the rush. Their

1262
01:01:44,800 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 2: seventh in defensive stuff rate, nineteenth in defensive lineyards, which

1263
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 2: means they're gonna be able to stop. Yeah, they're good.

1264
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:54,480
Speaker 2: If it's not going to be Frank Harris going, I

1265
01:01:54,520 --> 01:01:58,560
Speaker 2: can see this being a just a very pooring game

1266
01:01:58,640 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 2: to watch, So I would look for under.

1267
01:02:00,360 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 3: There all, especially if Clark's not in. They just lost

1268
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 3: their really good tackle.

1269
01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:08,480
Speaker 2: So I would look for the under there. Maryland Virginia.

1270
01:02:08,640 --> 01:02:11,120
Speaker 2: I think this Maryland numbers is going to take off.

1271
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 2: I keep saying that, and it's still kind of hovering

1272
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 2: about fourteen and a half fifteen. I understand Virginia had

1273
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:19,080
Speaker 2: a nice little offensive outburst against James Madison, but that

1274
01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 2: is a James Madison defense, not a big ten defense.

1275
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:25,000
Speaker 2: So we'll see, you know, if Maryland can provide a

1276
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:29,000
Speaker 2: better defensive effort there. But Virginia cannot defend explosives whatsoever.

1277
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:32,040
Speaker 2: And Tallia tackle aola and that Maryland offense, that's all

1278
01:02:32,080 --> 01:02:35,120
Speaker 2: they are is an explosive powder keg. Can't move the chains,

1279
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 2: just big chunk plays. So I would take Maryland all

1280
01:02:38,200 --> 01:02:38,960
Speaker 2: the way up to seventeen.

1281
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:42,120
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to second down. Our favorite overdog,

1282
01:02:42,600 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 3: it's called the overdogs. Parlay already talked about. Mind, We're

1283
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 3: going with Iowa laying over four touchdowns good at twenty

1284
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 3: nine and a half. I don't see how Western Michigan

1285
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:54,600
Speaker 3: scores without flukes, and they might even give Iowa points

1286
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 3: on special teams D or defense. What could go wrong

1287
01:02:58,000 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 3: in Kennick, But I'm rolling with the Hawkeyes.

1288
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:02,919
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with a steaming Alabama in the market

1289
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,440
Speaker 2: right now. I would stop buying at thirty five. But

1290
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:09,560
Speaker 2: Saban has absolutely pounded non Power five teams since the

1291
01:03:09,600 --> 01:03:11,920
Speaker 2: beginning of twenty twenty one. You can look back at

1292
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 2: seven games against the Middle Tennessee's the Austoin piece of

1293
01:03:15,080 --> 01:03:18,080
Speaker 2: Ulms of the world, and the average score is fifty

1294
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:21,920
Speaker 2: four to six and a half. Saban has absolutely dominated

1295
01:03:21,960 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 2: these spots. Why did you push yourself? I'm gonna take

1296
01:03:24,600 --> 01:03:26,960
Speaker 2: Alabama to roll here. I'd stop buying at thirty five.

1297
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:30,240
Speaker 3: All right, and then let's go to third down before

1298
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:35,200
Speaker 3: we close up shop. Here our favorite underdog in our

1299
01:03:35,240 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 3: underdog money.

1300
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 1: Line parlay, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time

1301
01:03:43,880 --> 01:03:45,560
Speaker 1: for the money line parlay.

1302
01:03:46,880 --> 01:03:49,320
Speaker 3: I'll kick things off. I'm gonna go with your boy,

1303
01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:52,800
Speaker 3: Billy Napier and Florida to get it done against Tennessee.

1304
01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 3: This is primarily a fate of Tennessee and that offense

1305
01:03:55,120 --> 01:03:59,000
Speaker 3: which is just not clicking. Milton is just not operating

1306
01:03:59,240 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 3: that offensive fifthly, and I think Florida at the outright

1307
01:04:02,520 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 3: win in the swamp for Tennessee hasn't won since two

1308
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 3: thousand and three.

1309
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 2: Well, I saw you put the Gators in and I agree,

1310
01:04:10,200 --> 01:04:11,840
Speaker 2: and I want to get one cash. So I was

1311
01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:15,200
Speaker 2: gonna go long, long shot with Northern Illinois, but nope,

1312
01:04:15,200 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take something a little bit shorter. Let's get

1313
01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:20,120
Speaker 2: this to the house. I'm gonna go James Madison over Troy.

1314
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:22,760
Speaker 2: This is not the same Troy defense that we were

1315
01:04:22,880 --> 01:04:25,680
Speaker 2: used to last year. Through two games, they've allowed thirty

1316
01:04:25,720 --> 01:04:28,240
Speaker 2: to Steven f Austin, forty two to Kansas State, who

1317
01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:30,800
Speaker 2: just kept adding and adding and adding every time Troy

1318
01:04:30,920 --> 01:04:34,200
Speaker 2: tried to cover that game. Troy has lost all their

1319
01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 2: havoc their bottom twenty right now. There is no pass rush.

1320
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:39,360
Speaker 2: They are not tackling behind the line of scrimmage. And

1321
01:04:39,520 --> 01:04:42,360
Speaker 2: troy defensive quality drives right now is outside the top

1322
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:45,640
Speaker 2: one hundred. They're defensive finishing drives outside the top one hundred.

1323
01:04:45,680 --> 01:04:47,960
Speaker 2: Everybody's marching up and down the field and getting points.

1324
01:04:48,240 --> 01:04:50,280
Speaker 2: It's a very bad sign for covering for Troy in

1325
01:04:50,320 --> 01:04:54,080
Speaker 2: the future. James Madison's playing great on defense against the rush.

1326
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:56,760
Speaker 2: They just can't defend the pass. And I don't fear

1327
01:04:56,840 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 2: Gunner Watson of Troy. He's already got three big time

1328
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:02,320
Speaker 2: throws and five turnover worthy plays. As a matter of fact,

1329
01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:04,760
Speaker 2: his turnover worthy play rate right now is eight percent.

1330
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 2: That's double what he's posted any other year, double what

1331
01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:11,080
Speaker 2: he's posted in his career. I love James Madison here

1332
01:05:11,120 --> 01:05:11,840
Speaker 2: to get it out right.

1333
01:05:12,160 --> 01:05:16,640
Speaker 3: All right, let's go Dukes. So James Madison and Florida

1334
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:20,160
Speaker 3: for your money line underdogs, all right, that'll do it

1335
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:24,160
Speaker 3: for us. It's a slate. It's not the prettiest slate,

1336
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:26,240
Speaker 3: but it's a slate news line. So let's colleg football betters.

1337
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:29,520
Speaker 3: We'll enjoy it regardless. So let's have a weekend, have

1338
01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 3: a winning weekend, and then from here on out. Next

1339
01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:35,360
Speaker 3: weekend is absolutely electric, and then every weekend from there

1340
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:38,920
Speaker 3: on out filled with marquee matchups. We are getting into

1341
01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 3: the heart of the college football season. It's great to

1342
01:05:41,760 --> 01:05:44,280
Speaker 3: be back. Thanks to all of you for tuning in.

1343
01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:46,240
Speaker 3: And before we get out here, I do want to

1344
01:05:46,240 --> 01:05:48,320
Speaker 3: remind everyone if you're into NFL pick them pools, don't

1345
01:05:48,320 --> 01:05:51,840
Speaker 3: forget the Favorites podcast free contest still open for registration.

1346
01:05:51,920 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 3: Only three thousand of the one hundred and twenty thousand

1347
01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 3: dollars cash prize pool has been awarded. You can't make

1348
01:05:57,200 --> 01:05:59,840
Speaker 3: money if you don't play. Like Billy Napier would say,

1349
01:06:00,280 --> 01:06:04,760
Speaker 3: Favorites dot Action network dot com. That's Favorites dot actionnetwork

1350
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:06,840
Speaker 3: dot com. So be sure to sign up and make

1351
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 3: your picks before Sunday. Literally costs nothing, so why not.

1352
01:06:11,080 --> 01:06:13,000
Speaker 3: All right, that'll do it for us. I do have

1353
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:15,880
Speaker 3: a couple of giveaways. Five star reviews really help us out.

1354
01:06:16,280 --> 01:06:19,840
Speaker 3: Carbo Rave, thanks for the review, may Loxo for whatep.

1355
01:06:19,960 --> 01:06:22,520
Speaker 3: Always see you out on Twitter. Tell us star one.

1356
01:06:23,360 --> 01:06:25,040
Speaker 3: Let's that'll be it. For now, But don't worry if

1357
01:06:25,040 --> 01:06:26,280
Speaker 3: you left the reviews, and if you already left one,

1358
01:06:26,360 --> 01:06:29,080
Speaker 3: leave another one. Grab someone else's phone five star review.

1359
01:06:29,120 --> 01:06:30,800
Speaker 3: Don't care what you say, We'll always do a bunch

1360
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:33,440
Speaker 3: of giveaways. But if I mentioned you, reach out to

1361
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:36,080
Speaker 3: our producer Mat Mitchell myself if you don't know who

1362
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:38,400
Speaker 3: that is, and we'll get you some gear. But those

1363
01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:40,360
Speaker 3: really help us out. Thanks for tuning in, Thanks as

1364
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:42,680
Speaker 3: always the commintext to our producer Matt Mitchell on the

1365
01:06:42,720 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 3: back end. Thanks to our video producers as well. Thanks

1366
01:06:45,080 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 3: of course once again to all of you, and make

1367
01:06:47,600 --> 01:06:49,680
Speaker 3: sure you subscribe on Subscribe, subscribe, tell a friend, tell

1368
01:06:49,680 --> 01:06:52,400
Speaker 3: on enemy, you know the geal. We will see you

1369
01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:55,919
Speaker 3: on Saturday morning, ten thirty am Easteron for BBOC Live

1370
01:06:56,400 --> 01:06:58,120
Speaker 3: and then we will be back with the recap on

1371
01:06:58,240 --> 01:07:01,400
Speaker 3: Monday morning and week preview and then the new bcs

1372
01:07:01,520 --> 01:07:04,040
Speaker 3: which way are live on YouTube Tuesday mornings a ten

1373
01:07:04,120 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 3: am Eastern and then be out and podcast form later

1374
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:08,959
Speaker 3: that day and then again a group of five guys

1375
01:07:09,000 --> 01:07:11,520
Speaker 3: every Wednesday jampack schedule. Make sure you check it all out.

1376
01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:14,960
Speaker 3: All worthwhile, Thanks for tuning in. Let's have a weekend cheers.

1377
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:15,880
Speaker 2: Peace Out.

1378
01:07:28,440 --> 01:07:32,920
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1379
01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:35,800
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1380
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:38,880
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler